Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [4][25][6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 13.03 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.0%, and a net profit of 1.21 billion yuan, up 27.6% year-on-year, driven by policies stimulating demand for electric two-wheelers [1][8] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 19.2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 9.5%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability due to the old-for-new policy and alleviation of price wars [2][13] - The company is actively expanding its product lines and channels, including launching new product lines targeting women and technology, which is expected to enhance sales and market share [3][20] Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 2.623 billion yuan, 3.137 billion yuan, and 3.726 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 3.02 yuan, 3.61 yuan, and 4.29 yuan [4][25] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 12, 10, and 9 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][25] Product and Channel Development - The company plans to increase its terminal store count from 30,000 in 2023, aiming to enhance sales efficiency and reach more customers [21][23] - The electric three-wheeler segment is expected to become a new growth point, with sales projected to reach 550,000 units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.9% [24][3]

美元债双周报（25 年第 35 周） 弱于大市 通胀韧性与就业转弱并存，美联储政策转向窗口开启 美国 7 月核心 PCE 通胀回升至 2.9%，但 9 月降息预期维持高位。美国 7 月 核心 PCE 物价指数同比升至 2.9%，符合市场预期，为年内新高，主要受 服务成本上涨推动，PCE 总体物价指数同比 2.6%，符合预期和前值；环 比 0.2%持平预期，较前值 0.3%有所回落。消费者支出创四个月最大增 幅，反映需求韧性。尽管商品价格下降，但投资组合管理费及娱乐服务 成本上升推高服务业通胀。收入方面，工资增长加快，实际可支配收入 增加，储蓄率稳定。美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔讲话中为降息打开 窗口，但强调需关注通胀与就业数据。市场仍普遍预计美联储将在 9 月 开启降息，焦点将转向接下来更完整的 8 月通胀与非农就业数据。 鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会释放偏鸽信号，强调就业市场疲软风险，暗示降息 可能。8 月 22 日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话释放出 明显鸽派信号，重点关注就业市场疲软带来的风险，并暗示美联储可能 于 9 月开启降息。他指出，当前劳动力市场呈现"供需双向显著放缓" 的异常平衡状态，7 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company has entered a new growth cycle after overcoming client transition pains from 2021 to 2023, with a complete adjustment of its client structure towards domestic brands and new energy clients [8][25]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 3.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.35%, and revenue of 36.63 billion yuan, up 10.85% year-on-year [8][25]. - The company is expanding its global footprint with new orders, new production capacity, and new products, including the establishment of production facilities in Serbia, Mexico, and the USA [3][47]. Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 19.64%, a year-on-year increase of 0.27 percentage points, and a net margin of 10.49% [12][25]. - The company expects revenues of 160.0 billion yuan, 194.0 billion yuan, and 236.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 16.9 billion yuan, 21.1 billion yuan, and 26.4 billion yuan for the same years [4][5]. Product and Market Development - The company is focusing on upgrading its automotive lighting products, with an average price increase of 25% in 2024, and aims to capture a 16% market share in domestic front lighting [2][3]. - The company has signed strategic cooperation agreements with several partners, including Huawei, to develop advanced automotive lighting solutions [40][41]. Client and Order Growth - In the first half of 2025, the company undertook 52 new model development projects, achieving mass production for 37 models, indicating strong order growth [47][49]. - The company has established relationships with major automotive manufacturers, including Volkswagen, Toyota, and NIO, enhancing its market position [50][51]. Global Expansion and Capacity - The company is enhancing its global presence with production facilities in Serbia and plans for further expansion in Mexico and the USA [3][55]. - A new smart automotive electronic and visual system production center is set to achieve an annual production capacity of approximately 10 million smart lamp assemblies [56][57].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][5][19]. Core Views - The company has significantly turned around its performance, achieving a net profit of 40.57 million yuan in H1 2025, compared to a loss in the previous period. This improvement is attributed to cost reduction efforts, increased production, and favorable market conditions for industrial-grade mixed oil [1][7]. - The company's operating cash flow has improved significantly, reaching 60.66 million yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 72.46 million yuan year-on-year [1][7]. - The gross margin has increased to 24.04% in H1 2025, up by 5.04 percentage points year-on-year, driven by higher margins in the industrial-grade mixed oil business [2][7]. - The company has submitted a private placement application to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, aiming to raise up to 717.63 million yuan [3][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenues of 717 million yuan, a decrease of 9.3% year-on-year, primarily due to changes in the sales structure of oils. The net profit for the same period was 40.57 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround [1][7]. - The operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 60.66 million yuan, reflecting a substantial improvement compared to the previous year [1][7]. Margin and Cost Analysis - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 24.04%, an increase of 5.04 percentage points from the previous year. The gross margin for the industrial-grade mixed oil business rose to 25.41%, up by 6.15 percentage points [2][7]. - The company maintained stable expense ratios, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios recorded at 0.05%, 8.12%, 0.12%, and 8.80%, respectively [2][7]. Market Conditions - The price of industrial-grade mixed oil (UCO) has been on the rise, reaching an average export price of 1,054.22 USD/ton in July 2025, a 16.75% increase year-on-year [2][13]. - The domestic demand for UCO is expected to grow as the country progresses with SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) pilot programs, which may further enhance the scarcity of industrial-grade mixed oil [13][15]. Future Outlook - The company has maintained its profit forecast for 2025 while adjusting upward the profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027, expecting net profits of 88 million yuan, 154 million yuan, and 200 million yuan for the respective years [3][19]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 37, 21, and 17 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianhong International Group is "Outperform the Market" [5][20]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight revenue decline of 1.9% year-on-year to 11.03 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, primarily due to lower product prices, but its profitability continued to improve with a net profit increase of 55.2% to 420 million yuan [1][3]. - The gross profit margin improved by 1.0 percentage point to 14.2%, attributed to enhanced operational efficiency and flexible raw material procurement strategies [1][20]. - The company is a leading global cotton yarn producer, and its debt structure has been optimized due to reduced bank borrowings, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio decrease of 2.6 percentage points to 51.4% [1][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the yarn sales volume increased by 3.6% to 385,000 tons, while yarn revenue decreased by 2.2% to 8.62 billion yuan due to price declines [2]. - The gross margin for yarn improved by 1.4 percentage points to 13.9% due to increased order volume and capacity utilization [2]. - The woven fabric business saw a significant growth of 17.0% in sales volume to 51 million meters, driven by inventory replenishment ahead of tariff changes [2]. - The knitted fabric segment faced challenges, with sales volume dropping by 33.5% to 3,840 tons and revenue declining by 37.8% to 186 million yuan [2]. Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 720 million, 770 million, and 970 million yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.3%, 6.9%, and 25.5% [3][21]. - The target price has been raised to 5.1-5.9 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 6-7x for 2025 [3][20]. - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of 13.1% in 2025, with net profit margins projected at 3.1% [18][21]. Market Position and Strategy - The management plans to sell 400,000 tons of yarn, 50 million meters of woven fabric, and 3,000 tons of knitted fabric in the second half of 2025 [2]. - The company benefits from a local supply chain and quick response capabilities, positioning it well for future market leadership [20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Insights - The company has shown signs of recovery in profit growth during the second quarter, with a narrowing revenue decline and positive profit growth, indicating that organizational management adjustments and business efficiency improvements are beginning to take effect [1][4]. - The strategic shift from a traffic-driven model to a brand-focused approach is ongoing, with new product launches contributing positively to revenue, despite challenges in the dermatology innovation business [2][4]. - The company has implemented cost optimization measures, resulting in improved marketing efficiency and a significant reduction in sales expense ratio in the second quarter [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.261 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 19.57%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 221 million yuan, down 35.38% [1]. - The second quarter saw revenue of 1.183 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 18.44%, but net profit increased by 20.89% to 119 million yuan, indicating a significant turnaround from a 65% decline in the previous quarter [1]. - The gross margin for the first half was 70.99%, down 3.52 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by intensified industry competition and adjustments in the skincare business [3]. Business Segment Performance - The dermatology innovation business generated revenue of 912 million yuan in the first half, down 33.97%, while the medical terminal business revenue was 673 million yuan, down 9.44% [2]. - The raw materials business remained stable with revenue of 626 million yuan, and the nutrition science innovation business saw a 32.4% increase in revenue to 38 million yuan [2]. Future Outlook - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 452 million, 545 million, and 637 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 60.9, 50.5, and 43.2 times [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][21]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 835 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.57%, and a net profit of 76 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32.86% [1][8]. - The company is actively expanding into new product areas, particularly in low-altitude and humanoid robotics, with significant growth in its precision component business and strong performance in the new energy and wind power sectors [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's gross margin was 28.84%, and net margin was 9.10%, showing slight declines of 1.72 and 0.60 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [1]. - The company’s precision component business generated revenue of 340 million yuan, up 41.67% year-on-year, while the revenue from bearing retainers and accessories reached 427 million yuan, growing by 43.86% [2]. - The company forecasts net profits of 161 million yuan, 236 million yuan, and 302 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 37, 25, and 20 times [3][4]. Product Development - The company is focusing on developing new products such as electric motor rotors for low-altitude flying vehicles and humanoid robots, currently in the sample verification stage [2]. - The revenue from the new energy electric drive rotor series products surged by 330.98% year-on-year, indicating strong market demand [2]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a champion in the bearing retainer manufacturing industry, with a stable growth trajectory in its core business [3]. - The company’s self-developed eVTOL motor assembly has passed customer testing, positioning it well to benefit from trends in humanoid robot mass production and the low-altitude economy [3].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Broker Gold Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to optimize the selection of stocks from the broker gold stock pool to outperform the median of active equity funds[39][43]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses the broker gold stock pool as the stock selection space and constraint benchmark. - It employs portfolio optimization to control deviations in individual stocks and styles from the broker gold stock pool. - The industry distribution of all public funds is used as the industry allocation benchmark. - The model's detailed construction method can be found in the report "Broker Gold Stock Full Analysis - Data, Modeling, and Practice" published on February 18, 2022[39][43]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown stable performance historically, consistently outperforming the active equity fund index from 2018 to 2022, ranking in the top 30% of active equity funds each year[12][39]. Model Backtesting Results Broker Gold Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio - **Absolute Return (Monthly)**: 15.49%[5][42] - **Excess Return Relative to Active Equity Fund Index (Monthly)**: 3.59%[5][42] - **Absolute Return (Year-to-Date)**: 34.01%[5][42] - **Excess Return Relative to Active Equity Fund Index (Year-to-Date)**: 5.72%[5][42] - **Ranking in Active Equity Funds (Year-to-Date)**: 30.38% percentile (1054/3469)[5][42] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Single Quarter Net Profit Growth Rate - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the growth rate of net profit in a single quarter[3][28]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the net profit for the current quarter. - Compare it to the net profit of the same quarter in the previous year. - The formula is: $ \text{Net Profit Growth Rate} = \frac{\text{Current Quarter Net Profit} - \text{Previous Year Same Quarter Net Profit}}{\text{Previous Year Same Quarter Net Profit}} \times 100\% $ - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor has performed well recently[3][28]. Factor Name: Single Quarter ROE - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the return on equity for a single quarter[3][28]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the net income for the quarter. - Divide it by the average shareholders' equity for the quarter. - The formula is: $ \text{ROE} = \frac{\text{Net Income}}{\text{Average Shareholders' Equity}} \times 100\% $ - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor has performed well recently[3][28]. Factor Name: Single Quarter Revenue Growth Rate - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the growth rate of revenue in a single quarter[3][28]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the revenue for the current quarter. - Compare it to the revenue of the same quarter in the previous year. - The formula is: $ \text{Revenue Growth Rate} = \frac{\text{Current Quarter Revenue} - \text{Previous Year Same Quarter Revenue}}{\text{Previous Year Same Quarter Revenue}} \times 100\% $ - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor has performed well recently[3][28]. Factor Backtesting Results Single Quarter Net Profit Growth Rate - **Performance**: This factor has shown good performance recently[3][28]. Single Quarter ROE - **Performance**: This factor has shown good performance recently[3][28]. Single Quarter Revenue Growth Rate - **Performance**: This factor has shown good performance recently[3][28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][36] Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, driven by new products and customer projects, with revenue reaching 3.047 billion yuan, up 11.1% year-on-year, and net profit of 451 million yuan, up 21.3% year-on-year [1][8] - The company is focusing on high-value products and optimizing its product structure towards domain controllers and other high-value products, which is expected to enhance the average value per vehicle [2][24] - The company has a strong order backlog, with new projects expected to generate over 7 billion yuan in lifecycle sales in 2025, including significant breakthroughs with major international automakers [3][31] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.673 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.2%, and a net profit of 245 million yuan, up 60.7% year-on-year [1][8] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 27.2%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.1 percentage points, while the net margin was 15.1%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [2][17] - The company is expected to maintain strong revenue growth, with projected revenues of 7.2 billion yuan, 9.27 billion yuan, and 11.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][36] Product and Market Development - The company is expanding its global footprint, having acquired a 100% stake in a Czech company to establish a high-standard automotive electronics production base in Europe [3][35] - The company is actively developing new products in the intelligent driving domain, with strategic partnerships aimed at enhancing its capabilities in this area [36][30] - The company has diversified its product offerings, moving from traditional lighting controllers to high-value products such as intelligent distribution boxes and domain controllers, which are expected to increase the average value per vehicle significantly [25][28]

摘要 证券研究报告 | 2025年09月01日 反内卷不仅仅是去产能 ——如何理解反内卷的经济逻辑 经济研究 · 宏观专题 证券分析师：李智能 证券分析师：田地 证券分析师：董德志 0755-22940456 0755-81982035 021-60933158 lizn@guosen.com.cn tiandi2@guosen.com.cn dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 S0980524090003 S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 本文从宏观经济会计恒等式出发，系统分析了投资与消费之间的内在张力及其对经济增长的影 响。资本收入集中于少数高收入群体，边际消费倾向低，是投资的主要来源；而非资本收入人 群消费倾向高，构成消费需求主力。两者比例的失衡导致中国资本产出比（K/GDP）持续上升、 资本回报率（r）不断下降，逼近"效率悬崖" ，投资驱动型增长已难以为继。 • 实证数据表明，中国投资效率下降主要源于消费未能同步跟上供给扩张，尤其是服务消费需求 偏弱与服务业投资过剩的结构性错 ...