Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, after the release of November economic data, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in China was prominent, with both production and consumption continuing to decline, but prices showed signs of improvement. The bond market first declined and then rose, showing a small V-shaped trend, slightly recovering throughout the week, and the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowed slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][4][11][38]. - As of December 19, the spread between 30 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 41BP, at a historically low level. The spread between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and 20 - year Treasury bonds was 17BP, at a historically extremely low position. The current bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The 30 - 10 spread冲高 slightly declined this week, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future. The variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds is also expected to fluctuate narrowly [2][3][12][13]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of November economic data last week, the bond market first declined and then rose, slightly recovering throughout the week, with the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowing slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][4][11]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of December 19, the spread was 41BP, at a historically low level. In November, the economic downward pressure continued to increase. The estimated GDP growth rate in October was about 4.1% year - on - year, a 0.1% decline from October. The deflation risk was alleviated. The bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future [2][12]. - **20 - year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of December 19, the spread was 17BP, at a historically extremely low position. The economic situation and bond market analysis are similar to those of 30 - year Treasury bonds. The variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.3 trillion. As of November 30, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of more than 14 years was 24,341.6 billion, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds were the main varieties. The 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (December 15 - 19, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds dropped sharply, with a total of 207 million yuan issued. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance decreased significantly. In terms of varieties, local government bonds accounted for the majority. In terms of terms, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds were issued [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week is 120 million yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 123.02 billion yuan, accounting for 14.1% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity decreased slightly. The trading volume and proportion of different varieties changed differently [27]. Yield - After the release of November economic data last week, the bond market showed a small V - shaped trend. The 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowed slightly. The yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to different extents [38]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, with an absolute low level. The 30 - year - 10 - year Treasury spread was 41BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 22% quantile since 2010 [48]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes, with an absolute low level. The spreads between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, and between 20 - year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 17BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 2BP and - 2BP from the previous week, at the 14% and 15% quantiles since 2010 [50]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year Treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 112.66 yuan, with a 0.00% increase. The total trading volume was 658,100 lots (- 26,189 lots), and the open interest was 141,900 lots (- 718 lots). The trading volume decreased slightly compared with the previous week, and the open interest decreased slightly [55].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 铜行业快评 铜精矿长单加工费基准降为零，促使冶炼行业"反内卷" | 行业研究·行业快评  | | | 有色金属  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 刘孟峦 | 010-88005312 | liumengluan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040001 | | 证券分析师： | 焦方冉 | 021-60933177 | jiaofangran@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522080003 | 事项： 12 月 19 日左右，智利矿业公司安托法加斯塔和国内某头部铜冶炼厂达成协议，将 2026 年铜精矿加工精炼 费用 Benchmark 分别定为 0 美元/吨和 0 美分/磅，低于 2025 年的 21.25 美元/吨和 2.125 美分/磅。 国信金属观点：长单加工费降为零，除了铜矿-铜冶炼供需错配，还因为副产品和回收率收益都处于历史 最好水平。中国铜冶炼厂工艺水平、成本控制全球领先，副产品消纳顺畅，在铜冶炼低迷期竞争 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [6][5][10]. Core Viewpoints - The home appliance retail sector is experiencing a bottoming out in November, with expectations for recovery driven by continued national subsidies and improvements in exports [1][18]. - Despite a challenging environment with high base effects from the previous year, the resilience of leading companies in the home appliance sector remains strong, particularly in the white goods segment [13][14]. - The report highlights a potential rebound in retail demand for home appliances, supported by ongoing national subsidy policies and improved export conditions [18][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Recommendations - Recommended companies include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, Gree Electric Appliances, and Hisense Home Appliances in the white goods category; Hisense Visual Technology in the black goods category; and Roborock, Bear Electric, and Ecovacs in the small appliances category [5][6][14]. 2. Market Performance and Insights - In November, the retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment fell by 19.4% year-on-year, while the overall retail sales in China grew by 1.3% [2][19]. - The export value of home appliances decreased by 6% year-on-year in November, with air conditioning exports down by 25.7%, while refrigerators and washing machines showed signs of recovery with growth rates of 7.6% and 15.8%, respectively [3][46]. - Air conditioning production and sales saw declines exceeding 30% in November, but January production is expected to improve due to the timing of the Spring Festival [4][59]. 3. Key Data Tracking - The home appliance sector achieved a relative return of +0.44% compared to the broader market [61]. - Prices for copper and aluminum increased by 0.4% and 2.4%, respectively, while cold-rolled steel prices remained stable [63][64]. - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with residential construction and sales areas down by 20.1% and 8.1% year-on-year, respectively [73].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 超长债周报 30-10 利差冲高回落 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周 11 月经济数据出炉，国内供强需弱矛盾突出，生产消 费均继续下行，但物价延续改善迹象，债市先抑后扬，小 V 型走势，全 周略微回暖，30-10 国债利差小幅收窄。成交方面，上周超长债交投活 跃度小幅下降，但总体交投非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差 走平，品种利差涨跌互现。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 12 月 19 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 41BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，11 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 10 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.1%，增速较 10 月回落 0.1%。通 胀方面，11 月 CPI 为 0.7%，PPI 为-2.2%，通缩风险有所缓解。我们认 为，当前债市震荡概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主 要来自于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度并无增发国债，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速快速回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。同时从中 央经济工作会议和政治局会议来看，2026 年党中央更加重视高质量发 展，经 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 铜行业快评 铜精矿长单加工费基准降为零，促使冶炼行业"反内卷" | 行业研究·行业快评  | | | 有色金属  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 刘孟峦 | 010-88005312 | liumengluan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040001 | | 证券分析师： | 焦方冉 | 021-60933177 | jiaofangran@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522080003 | 事项： 12 月 19 日左右，智利矿业公司安托法加斯塔和国内某头部铜冶炼厂达成协议，将 2026 年铜精矿加工精炼 费用 Benchmark 分别定为 0 美元/吨和 0 美分/磅，低于 2025 年的 21.25 美元/吨和 2.125 美分/磅。 国信金属观点：长单加工费降为零，除了铜矿-铜冶炼供需错配，还因为副产品和回收率收益都处于历史 最好水平。中国铜冶炼厂工艺水平、成本控制全球领先，副产品消纳顺畅，在铜冶炼低迷期竞争 ...

白银价格持续走强。2025 年 12 月，全球现货白银价格创下历史性纪录。 （1）从白银定价逻辑来看，白银具有工业和金融两大属性。从工业属 性来看，2025 年工业用银占比超 60%，鉴于白银本身具有的高导电特性， 白银成为科技革命与能源转型的"战略血液"，数据中心建设和逆变器 及充电设施等需求场景，使得白银具有类似铜的工业品属性。从金融属 性看，全球信用货币信任度因财政赤字扩大和地缘动荡下滑，使白银成 为黄金之外另一种避险资金的优选标的。（2）从短期触发因素来看， 纽约 COMEX 交易所 12 月初四天内 60%的注册库存（约 4760 万盎司）被 实物交割，注册库存较 2020 年峰值下降超 70%，白银实物挤兑是发生白 银飙涨的直接触发因素。（3）往后看，中长期来看，白银支撑逻辑未 改，供需缺口持续扩大，供应端伴生矿属性导致扩产刚性，主产国扰动 进一步限制增量；光伏、AI、新能源汽车等领域的工业需求增长，叠加 全球货币宽松周期延续，降低持有成本并强化避险配置需求，金银比仍 存修复空间。短期需警惕美联储宽松预期透支、"去银化"技术突破等 可能扰动行情。 多资产图景： 整体收益方面，本周（12 月 6 日 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media and internet industry [5][4][35]. Core Insights - The media industry has shown a weekly increase of 0.54%, outperforming both the CSI 300 index (0.35%) and the ChiNext index (-1.31%) during the week of December 15-21, 2025 [11][12]. - Key performers in the industry include Guangxi Radio and Television, Sanwei Communication, Perfect World, and 37 Interactive Entertainment, while notable decliners include Bona Film Group, ST Fanli, and CTV Media [11][12]. - The release of "Avatar 3" has significantly boosted box office revenues, contributing to a total of 7.06 billion yuan in film box office for the week, with "Avatar 3" alone accounting for 3.81 billion yuan (53.9% of the total) [18][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector's performance ranked 16th among all sectors for the week, with a notable increase in stock prices for several companies [11][12][13]. Key Developments - ByteDance launched the Doubao model 1.8 and Seedance 1.5 Pro, enhancing capabilities for audio-visual content generation [2][15]. - Tencent introduced the Mix Yuan video model 1.5, marking a significant advancement in real-time interactive experiences [2][16]. - OpenAI released the GPT Image 1.5 model, improving image generation and editing capabilities [2][17]. - MiniMax and Zhiyu successfully passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, with plans to list in January 2026 [2][17]. - "Avatar 3" premiered on December 19, 2025, achieving a box office of nearly 4 billion yuan within three days [2][17]. Box Office and Content Performance - The top three films for the week were "Avatar 3" (3.81 billion yuan), "Zootopia 2" (2.42 billion yuan), and "Get Out" (460 million yuan) [18][20]. - Popular variety shows included "Now Departing Season 3" and "Running Man Season 9" [24][26]. - In the gaming sector, the top-grossing mobile games in November 2025 were "Whiteout Survival," "Kingshot," and "Gossip Harbor: Merge & Story" [27][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests capitalizing on opportunities in the gaming sector, particularly with companies like Giant Network, Kyeing Network, and Jibite [4][35]. - It emphasizes the potential for growth in AI applications and the film industry, recommending platforms like Mango TV and Bilibili, as well as content producers like Light Media and Huace Film [4][35].

证券研究报告|2025年12月22日 资配跨年展望 春季躁动，你想知道的一切 核心观点 资产配置研究·深度报告 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 全球资产的"跨年红包"与"春季行情"。1）季节效应上看，历年Q4全球主要市场股指涨幅更高，海外央行年末释放鸽派信号、外企 "岁末双薪"入市，圣诞假风偏提升驱动全球权益资产的"跨年红包"行情；2）大宗商品方面，Q1季节性偏强，黄金Q1强于Q4，银、 铜Q4强于Q1，布油四个季度表现逐季递减，受 OPEC 配额调整、冬季取暖和春季出行预期影响，一季度弹性偏大；3）全球资产如何共 振，中国"春季躁动"期间，全球权益资产胜率赔率均有所提升，铜、油年内主要涨幅由"春季躁动"同期贡献，黄金更易在Q2-Q4的 其他时间段走出独立行情；4）全球股市与中国资产春季躁动的强共振 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media and internet industry [5][4][35]. Core Insights - The media industry has shown a weekly increase of 0.54%, outperforming both the CSI 300 index (0.35%) and the ChiNext index (-1.31%) during the week of December 15-21, 2025 [11][12]. - Key performers in the industry include Guangxi Guangdian, Sanwei Communication, Perfect World, and 37 Interactive Entertainment, while notable decliners include Bona Film Group, ST Fanli, Ciwen Media, and Zhejiang Wenlian [11][12]. - The release of "Avatar 3" has significantly boosted box office revenues, contributing to a total of 706 million yuan in film box office for the week, with "Avatar 3" alone accounting for 381 million yuan (53.9% of the total) [18][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector ranked 16th in terms of weekly performance among all sectors, with a 0.54% increase [11][12][13]. - The top three films for the week were "Avatar 3" (381 million yuan), "Zootopia 2" (242 million yuan), and "Deqian Jinzhi" (46 million yuan) [18][20]. Key Developments - ByteDance launched the Doubao model 1.8 and Seedance 1.5 Pro, enhancing capabilities for audio-visual content generation [2][15]. - Tencent introduced the Mix Yuan video model 1.5, a real-time interactive experience platform [2][16]. - OpenAI released the GPT Image 1.5 model, improving image generation and editing capabilities [2][17]. - MiniMax and Zhiyu passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, with plans to list in January 2026 [2][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests seizing opportunities in the gaming sector, particularly with companies like Giant Network, Kaiying Network, and Jibite, as the gaming sector is expected to rebound [4][35]. - It also highlights the potential in AI applications and the film industry, recommending platforms like Mango TV and Bilibili, as well as content producers like Light Media and Huace Film [4][35].

证券研究报告|2025年12月22日 资配跨年展望 春季躁动，你想知道的一切 资产配置研究·深度报告 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 01 全球资产 02 AH大势 03 风格 04 行业规律 05 技术实操 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 全球权益资产的"跨年行情"或"春季躁动"是否成立 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 全球资产的"跨年红包"与"春季行情"。1）季节效应上看，历年Q4全球主要市场股指涨幅更高，海外央行年末释放鸽派信号、外企 "岁末双薪"入市，圣诞假风偏提升驱动全球权益资产的"跨年红包"行情；2）大宗商品方面，Q1季节性偏强，黄金Q1强于Q4，银、 铜Q4强于Q1，布油四个季度表现逐季递减，受 OPEC 配额调整、冬季取暖和春季出行预期影响，一季度弹性偏大；3）全球资产如何共 振，中国"春季 ...