2025年12月30日 证券研究报告 | 互联网行业2026年投资策略 AI、游戏和电商出海、外卖边际缓和是关键变量 行业研究 · 海外市场专题 互联网 · 互联网Ⅱ 投资评级：优于大市（维持） | 证券分析师：张伦可 | 证券分析师：陈淑媛 | 证券分析师：王颖婕 | 证券分析师：刘子谭 | 证券分析师：张昊晨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-81982651 | 021-60375431 | 0755-81983057 | | | | zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn | chenshuyuan@guosen.com.cn | wangyingjie1@guosen.com.cn | liuzitan@guosen.com.cn | zhanghaochen1@guosen.com.cn | | S0980521120004 | S0980524030003 | S0980525020001 | S0980525060001 | S0980525010001 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 | 恒生科技指数 | 20 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that in December, the yield rates of most bond varieties declined, with all interest rate bonds experiencing a decrease in yield rates, while credit bond spreads widened for most varieties [3][10][19] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of a slowdown, with the CPI inflation remaining moderate, and both European and Japanese inflation stabilizing [3][39][43] - Domestic economic growth continued to slow down in November, with a year-on-year GDP growth rate of approximately 4.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from October [3][49][53] Group 2 - The monetary policy review for the fourth quarter removed references to "low price levels" and emphasized ongoing challenges in the economy, such as the imbalance between supply and demand [3][103] - The report highlights that the current bond market is likely to experience greater volatility, suggesting a focus on long-term bond trading strategies [3][34][135] - The report notes that the "fixed income plus" strategy involves a combination of fixed income assets with other risk assets to enhance returns, with a focus on maintaining a balance between risk and return [105][106][120] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the performance of "fixed income plus" funds, indicating a significant increase in the allocation to equity assets, with stock allocation reaching 10.3% by the end of Q3 2025 [3][129] - The total scale of "fixed income plus" funds reached 27,826 billion, with an average fund size of 2 billion [125][126] - The report emphasizes that the performance of "fixed income plus" funds tends to be better during bull markets in the A-share market, with historical returns showing significant variability [114][118]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][4][12] Core Insights - The State Grid Corporation of China has emphasized increasing investment in the power grid, particularly in ultra-high voltage and smart grid sectors, to support domestic demand and stabilize growth [1][3] - The Ministry of Finance has indicated that a more proactive fiscal policy will continue into 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal spending and optimizing expenditure structure to boost domestic demand [2][3] - The domestic power grid investment is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity, with significant projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project starting in July 2025, and increasing demand for hydropower transmission from Southwest China [2][7] Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - The report anticipates that the ultra-high voltage equipment and smart grid upgrades will benefit from the increased investment and fiscal policies [2][7] - Companies to watch include Pinggao Electric and Guodian NARI [2][7] Investment Data - As of January to November 2025, the completed investment in the power grid reached 560.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, while power source investment was 850 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2% [3]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月30日 板块复盘：消费者服务板块报告期内上涨 6.28%，跑赢大盘 4.61pct。报告 期内（2025 年 12 月 15 日-2025 年 12 月 28 日），国信社服板块涨幅居前的 股票为中国中免（16.91%）、中教控股（13.76%）、科德教育、凯撒旅业、 首旅酒店、同道猎聘、君亭酒店、天立国际控股、桂林旅游、豆神教育。 行业与公司动态：海南全岛封关运作首周离岛免税购物金额即实现 11 亿 元，同比增长 54.9%，人均消费达 6667 元，同比增长 16%；上海浦东、 虹桥机场及北京首都机场免税店招标结果相继落地，中国中免成功连中 三标。亚朵持续推进产品迭代以提振经营效率，旗下新品"亚朵 3.6" 通过模块化建设实现筹建周期缩短 20%，首批门店 RevPAR 显著优于同商 圈酒店。临近元旦假期，旅游市场升温，2026 年元旦假期国内航线机票 预订量已突破 106 万张，同比增长约 45%；出入境航线预订量超 53 万张， 同比增长 15%。此外，氛围十足且活动丰富的主题乐园成为年轻人跨年 狂欢的又一选择。12 月 27 日至 28 日，东方甄选"看世界"团队赴 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the machinery equipment sector [5][11]. Core Views - The establishment of the humanoid robot and embodied intelligence standardization technical committee by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is expected to promote standardized development in the humanoid robot industry [2][19]. - ByteDance plans to invest $23 billion in artificial intelligence in 2026, indicating a strong commitment to AI infrastructure investment [3][20]. Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - The MIIT's new committee will focus on developing industry standards across various areas, which is anticipated to enhance the industry's structured growth [2][19]. - Long-term investment opportunities in humanoid robots are viewed positively, with recommendations to focus on companies with strong positions in the supply chain, such as Feirongda, Longxi Co., Weiman Sealing, Hengli Hydraulic, and others [2][8]. AI Infrastructure - ByteDance's significant capital expenditure plan for AI infrastructure highlights ongoing investment trends among major companies, with a focus on expanding related supply chains [3][20]. - Key areas of interest include gas turbines and liquid cooling solutions, with specific companies recommended for investment, such as Yingliu Co., Wanze Co., and others involved in energy supply for AI data centers [3][8]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Several companies are rated as "Outperform," including: - Green's Harmonics (688017.SH) with a target price of 169.48 CNY and a market cap of 31.1 billion CNY [11][27]. - Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ) with a target price of 73.30 CNY and a market cap of 198.4 billion CNY [11][27]. - Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) with a target price of 108.61 CNY and a market cap of 145.6 billion CNY [11][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong market positions and growth potential in both humanoid robotics and AI infrastructure sectors [8][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by over 10% [4][37]. Core Insights - The social services sector has shown resilience, with a reported increase of 6.28% during the review period, outperforming the broader market by 4.61 percentage points [13][37]. - Key drivers of growth include the strong performance of duty-free sales in Hainan, which reached 1.1 billion CNY in the first week of operation, marking a 54.9% year-on-year increase [19]. - The report highlights significant developments in the tourism and education sectors, with rising travel bookings and new educational policies aimed at reducing exam burdens [23][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The consumer services sector outperformed the market, with a 6.28% increase from December 15 to December 28, 2025, compared to a 1.67% rise in the CSI 300 index [13][14]. Industry and Company Dynamics - Duty-free shopping in Hainan saw a remarkable increase, with sales reaching 11 billion CNY, and average spending per person rising to 6,667 CNY, a 16% increase year-on-year [19]. - Major companies like China Duty Free Group won multiple bids for airport duty-free operations, enhancing their market position [18]. - The hotel sector is innovating with the launch of the "Atour 3.6" brand, which has successfully opened over 20 locations, achieving high occupancy rates and revenue per available room (RevPAR) [20]. Stock Holdings Analysis - Notable changes in stock holdings during the review period include an increase in holdings for Haidilao and Gu Ming, while others like Tea Baidao saw slight decreases [3][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Duty Free, Huazhu Group, Ctrip, and Atour, among others, as they are expected to benefit from favorable government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [4][37].

Group 1 - The report indicates that in December, the yield rates of most bond varieties declined, with all interest rate bonds experiencing a decrease in yield rates. In the credit bond sector, most credit bond varieties saw widening credit spreads, while the total amount of defaults significantly decreased in December [3][10][30] - The overseas economic fundamentals show a slowdown in the US economy, with a mild performance in CPI inflation. Both European and Japanese inflation rates have stabilized [3][39][43] - Domestic economic growth continued to slow down in November, with a year-on-year GDP growth rate of approximately 4.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from October. The forecast for GDP growth in Q4 2025 is about 4.3%, indicating a further decline from Q3 [3][49][91] Group 2 - The monetary policy review indicates that the fourth quarter monetary policy meeting removed references to "low inflation" and emphasized the challenges posed by the imbalance between supply and demand in the economy [3][103] - The report highlights that the "fixed income plus" strategy involves a combination of fixed income assets with other risk assets to enhance returns, with common assets including stocks, convertible bonds, derivatives, and commodities [105][106] - The performance of "fixed income plus" funds has shown a significant increase in equity allocation, with stock assets accounting for 10.3% of the total, while bond assets remain dominant at 85.4% [129]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月30日 策略专题 布局核心资产正当时——中证 A500 指数投资价值分析 核心结论：①牛市上涨时空未显著、政策环境依然温暖、基本面有望回升修 复、岁末年初增量资金入市，当前正是增配 A 股的战略窗口期。②A500 指数 作为中国核心资产代表，兼顾传统及新兴产业，具备估值、盈利、分红等相 对优势，当下对其的资金配置需求有望提高。③广发中证 A500ETF 在紧密跟 踪标的指数的基础上，既能实现超越标的指数的产品业绩，在跟踪误差控制 上同样表现突出。 | 中小板/月涨跌幅(%) | | | 8264.98/4.65 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 创业板/月涨跌幅(%) | | | 3222.61/5.57 | | AH | 股价差指数 | | 123.24 | | A | 股总/流通市值 | (万亿元) | 97.52/89.58 | | 市场走势 | | | | 当前是增配 A 股的战略机遇期。展望 2026 年，宏观和股市制度依然温暖， 国内基本面有望步入上行通道，市场上涨仍有较大空间。从上涨时空看，本 轮牛市上涨时空较历史仍有空间。这一轮牛市始 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月30日 银行业投资策略 银行春季躁动布局策略：复盘与展望 | 行业研究·行业快评  | | | 银行  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田维韦 | 021-60875161 | tianweiwei@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520030002 | | 证券分析师： | 王剑 | 021-60875165 | wangjian@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980518070002 | 核心观点： 过去十年春节前银行表现复盘：银行指数胜率高达 80%以上，个股分化明显，优质股份行和城商行往往可 以跑出超额收益，国有大行表现稳健。过去十年复盘结果，申万银行指数仅在 2020 年的春节前行情中同 时没有绝对收益和超额收益，指数胜率超过 80%。31 个申万行业指数中，绝对收益和超额收益角度，申万 银行指数都是胜率都是最高的，申万银行指数历年春节前绝对收益率均值为 4.4%，超额收益率（相对上证 指数）均值为 4.9%，均处在申万行业指数首位。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the machinery equipment sector [5][11]. Core Insights - The establishment of the humanoid robot and embodied intelligence standardization technical committee by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is expected to promote standardized development in the humanoid robot industry [2][19]. - ByteDance plans to invest $23 billion (160 billion RMB) in artificial intelligence in 2026, indicating a strong commitment to AI infrastructure investment [3][20]. Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - The MIIT's new committee will focus on developing industry standards in key areas such as common technologies, components, systems, applications, and safety, which will help regulate the industry's growth [2][19]. - Long-term investment opportunities in humanoid robots are promising, with a focus on companies that are core suppliers to Tesla or have strong market positions, such as Feirongda, Longxi Co., Weiman Sealing, Hengli Hydraulic, and others [2][8]. AI Infrastructure - ByteDance's significant investment in AI infrastructure reflects ongoing commitment from major companies to expand in this area, with related industries expected to benefit [3][20]. - The report highlights the importance of gas turbines and liquid cooling technologies in AI data centers, suggesting that companies like Yingliu Co., Wanze Co., and others in the gas turbine supply chain should be closely monitored [3][8]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Several companies are rated as "Outperform," including: - Green Harmony (688017.SH) with a target price of 169.48 RMB and a market cap of 31.1 billion RMB [11][27]. - Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ) with a target price of 73.30 RMB and a market cap of 198.4 billion RMB [11][27]. - Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) with a target price of 108.61 RMB and a market cap of 145.6 billion RMB [11][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong positions in the humanoid robot and AI infrastructure sectors for potential investment opportunities [8][11].