- The report introduces a quantitative model for estimating dividend points in stock indices, which is crucial for accurately assessing the premium or discount in stock index futures contracts. The model considers the impact of component stock dividends on index points, which is essential for futures pricing[12][41][42] - The model calculates the dividend points of an index during the period from the current date (t) to the futures contract expiration date (T) using the formula: $$ \text{Dividend Points} = \sum_{n=1}^{N} \left( \frac{\text{Dividend Amount of Component Stock}}{\text{Total Market Value of Component Stock}} \times \text{Weight of Component Stock} \times \text{Index Closing Price} \right) $$ Here, \(N\) represents the number of component stocks, and the formula only includes stocks with ex-dividend dates between \(t\) and \(T\)[41][42][45] - The model refines the estimation of component stock weights by transitioning from approximate monthly data to precise daily data. The weight of a stock on a given day is calculated as: $$ W_{n,t} = \frac{w_{n0} \times (1 + r_n)}{\sum_{i=1}^{N} w_{i0} \times (1 + r_i)} $$ where \(w_{n0}\) is the weight of stock \(n\) on the last disclosed date, and \(r_n\) is the non-adjusted return of stock \(n\) from the last disclosed date to the current date[48][49] - The model estimates the dividend amount for stocks that have not disclosed their dividend plans by predicting net profit and dividend payout ratios. The dividend amount is calculated as: $$ \text{Dividend Amount} = \text{Net Profit} \times \text{Dividend Payout Ratio} $$ Net profit is predicted using historical profit distribution patterns, while the dividend payout ratio is estimated based on historical averages[50][53][56] - The model predicts ex-dividend dates using a linear extrapolation method based on the stability of historical intervals between dividend announcement and ex-dividend dates. If historical data is unavailable or unreliable, default dates are assigned based on typical market practices[54][59] - The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing predicted dividend points with actual dividend points for major indices (e.g., SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000). The model demonstrates high accuracy, with prediction errors generally within 5 points for SSE 50 and CSI 300, and within 10 points for CSI 500 and CSI 1000[60][64][67] - The model's predictions for stock index futures contracts' dividend points also show strong alignment with actual values, indicating its reliability for futures pricing[64][67][69]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [4] Core Insights - The financial leasing industry is undergoing a transformation driven by regulatory changes and strategic upgrades, emphasizing the importance of direct leasing and operational leasing capabilities [1][10] - Jiangsu Jinzu has established a unique business model and competitive moat through its "manufacturer + regional" and "retail + technology" strategies, leading to strong financial performance even during macroeconomic adjustments [2][3] - The company's asset quality remains superior within the financial leasing sector, with a non-performing financing lease asset ratio of 0.90% and a provision coverage ratio of 403% [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The financial leasing industry in China is shifting from scale expansion to high-quality development, with new regulations aimed at promoting direct leasing and reducing reliance on sale-leaseback models [10][11] - By 2026, financial leasing companies are required to have at least 50% of new business from direct leasing, which is expected to enhance industry concentration and service to the real economy [11][12] Company Overview - Jiangsu Jinzu focuses on small and micro enterprises, with over 50% of its financing directed towards this segment, and has a strong presence in green leasing [27][29] - The company has a concentrated ownership structure with significant state-owned capital, providing stability and support for its strategic initiatives [29][30] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported a 21.51% year-on-year increase in quarterly revenue, driven by asset scale expansion and improved net interest margins [2][39] - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 was 24.46 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.82% increase year-on-year, although growth was tempered by increased credit impairment losses [39][44] Asset Structure and Growth - Jiangsu Jinzu's total assets grew from 1,372.55 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to 1,620.11 billion yuan by Q3 2025, marking an 18.04% increase [52] - The company has strategically focused on clean energy and transportation sectors, which contributed significantly to its revenue growth [49][54] Risk Management and Quality - The company maintains a robust risk management framework, with a high provision coverage ratio and a focus on asset quality, which is critical in the current regulatory environment [3][54] - Jiangsu Jinzu's financial strategy emphasizes low leverage while achieving strong return on equity (ROE), showcasing its competitive edge in asset pricing and risk control [34][39]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the Chinese yeast market and the second-largest yeast producer globally, with a total fermentation capacity of 400,000 tons and sales of 415,400 tons of yeast and deep-processed products expected in 2024 [1][3]. - The company has a comprehensive global layout with 11 production bases in China and overseas factories in Egypt and Russia, distributing products to over 160 countries and regions [1]. - The yeast industry is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with the top three companies holding over 70% market share globally, and the company holds a 55% market share in China [1][42]. - The company has a strong competitive edge due to its global capacity and R&D system, with a consistent R&D expense ratio of over 4% and numerous domestic and international patents [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from a decline in raw material costs, particularly molasses, which is projected to support profit recovery as sugarcane planting areas expand in China [1][2]. Financial Projections - The company is forecasted to achieve total revenue of CNY 167.2 billion, CNY 188.4 billion, and CNY 210.0 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 10.0%, 12.6%, and 11.5% respectively [3][4]. - The projected net profit for the same period is CNY 15.8 billion, CNY 19.7 billion, and CNY 23.1 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.6%, 24.5%, and 17.3% respectively [3][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be CNY 1.82, CNY 2.27, and CNY 2.66 for 2025 to 2027 [3][4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 24.8, 19.9, and 17.0 for the years 2025 to 2027, indicating a potential premium of 10%-25% compared to the estimated valuation range of CNY 49.98 to CNY 56.79 [3][4].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月21日 折溢价：20260120 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是智能电车 ETF 浦银，ETF 折价 较多的是游戏传媒 ETF 浦银。近半年以来大宗交易日均成交金额达到 23 亿 元，20260120 当日大宗交易成交金额为 10 亿元，近半年以来平均折价率 6.75%，当日折价率为 5.88%。近一年以来上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、 中证 1000 股指期货主力合约的年化贴水率中位数分别为 0.68%、3.79%、 11.11%、13.61%，当日上证 50 股指期货主力合约年化升水率为 1.45%， 处于近一年来 90%分位点，当日沪深 300 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 0.04%，处于近一年来 91%分位点；当日中证 500 股指期货主力合约年化升 水率为 2.57%，处于近一年来 98%分位点；当日中证 1000 股指期货主力合 约年化贴水率为 1.40%，处于近一年来 98%分位点。 机构关注与龙虎榜：近一周内调研机构较多的股票是帝科股份、润丰股份、 海康威视、埃科光电、苏盐井神、中创智领、阿拉丁、英联股份等，帝科股 份被 123 家机构调研。20260 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Kweichow Moutai [5][6] Core Insights - Kweichow Moutai is undergoing a market-oriented transformation with a focus on a consumer-driven pricing mechanism, which is expected to reshape the competitive landscape and pricing formation in the industry [1][3][4] - The 2026 pricing system reform aims to create a "multi-price coexistence" ecosystem that aligns with consumer needs and enhances channel profitability through improved service [3][35] - The white liquor industry is transitioning from dependence on Moutai's demand to establishing independent ecosystems, leading to differentiated development among companies [4][29] Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate stable pricing for the flagship product, with anticipated sales growth during the Spring Festival [5] - Medium-term recovery in demand and product structure upgrades are expected to enhance profitability [5] - Long-term prospects remain positive as the company focuses on consumer-centric strategies and service capabilities, with potential for price increases and brand premium [5] Market Dynamics - The white liquor industry is shifting from a "follow-the-leader" growth model to a "differentiated competition" structure, driven by Moutai's market reforms [4][29] - The report highlights the importance of adapting to changing consumer preferences and market conditions, emphasizing the need for companies to build independent customer bases and market scenarios [4][29] Pricing Mechanism - The new pricing strategy breaks away from rigid factory prices, allowing for dynamic adjustments based on market conditions and consumer expectations [35] - The pricing reform is seen as a significant step towards marketization, ensuring channel profitability while stimulating sales [35] Company Performance Forecast - Revenue projections for Kweichow Moutai are set at CNY 183.3 billion, CNY 184.3 billion, and CNY 186.1 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.3%, 0.5%, and 1.0% respectively [5] - Expected net profit for the same period is CNY 90.45 billion, CNY 90.50 billion, and CNY 91.79 billion, with growth rates of 4.9%, 0.0%, and 1.4% respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Kweichow Moutai [5][6] Core Insights - Kweichow Moutai is undergoing a market-oriented transformation with a focus on a consumer-driven pricing mechanism, which is expected to reshape the competitive landscape and pricing dynamics in the industry [1][3][4] - The 2026 pricing system reform aims to create a "multi-price coexistence" ecosystem that aligns with consumer needs and enhances channel profitability [3][35] - The white liquor industry is transitioning from dependence on Moutai's demand to establishing independent ecosystems, leading to differentiated development among companies [4][25] Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate stable pricing for the flagship product, with anticipated sales growth during the Spring Festival [5] - Medium-term recovery in demand and product structure upgrades are expected to enhance profitability [5] - Long-term prospects remain positive as the company focuses on consumer-centric strategies and service capabilities, with continued potential for price increases [5] Market Dynamics - The report highlights a shift in the white liquor industry towards a "product + service" economy, driven by changes in consumer preferences and market conditions [3][25] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with companies moving away from following Moutai's lead to developing their own customer bases and market strategies [4][25] Pricing Strategy - The new pricing mechanism breaks away from rigid factory prices, allowing for dynamic adjustments based on market conditions and consumer expectations [35] - The introduction of a multi-channel sales approach, including self-sale, agency sale, and consignment, aims to improve channel profitability and consumer access [34][35] Company Performance Forecast - Revenue projections for Kweichow Moutai are set at CNY 183.3 billion, CNY 184.3 billion, and CNY 186.1 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of +5.3%, +0.5%, and +1.0% respectively [5] - Expected net profit for the same period is CNY 90.45 billion, CNY 90.50 billion, and CNY 91.79 billion, with growth rates of +4.9%, 0.0%, and +1.4% respectively [5]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月21日 宏观经济季报 "反内卷"与结构突围——中国经济复盘与展望 2025 年中国经济复盘：2025 年，中国经济展现出强劲韧性，全年实际 GDP 同比增长 5.0%，顺利达成预期目标，但走势呈现"前高后低"。下半年以来， "反内卷"政策推动 GDP 平减指数企稳回升，显示政策在稳定价格方面初见 成效。 一个值得关注的规律是：当实际 GDP 增速高于 5.0%时，价格指数往往承压下 行；当增速低于 5.0%时，价格指标则趋于改善。这或许表明，现阶段国内有 效需求所能支撑的合意增长区间在 4.5%-5.0%左右。因此，四季度增速回落 至 4.5%时，政策并未强力刺激投资，旨在避免与"清理过剩产能、推动价格 回升"的核心目标相冲突。 从经济结构看，增长动力发生了关键转换。生产端，第二产业增速有所回落， 而第三产业增速回升，两者形成有效对冲。这一变化具有积极的结构性意义： 第二产业的适度减速有利于"反内卷"政策的推进，而服务业的加速发展则 能创造更多就业、提升居民收入，从而扩大内需、提振价格，并缓解整体增 长压力。需求端，增长引擎明显分化：资本形成（投资）的拉动作用减弱， 最终消费 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月20日 2026年01月21日 创新实业（02788.HK） 优于大市 蒙东低成本绿电铝，海外项目助力产能高增长 公司是一家氧化铝和电解铝生产企业，电解铝营收占比90%。公司成立于2012 年，十几年间在蒙东霍林河建成 6*330MW 燃煤自备电机组和 78.8 万吨电解 铝产能，在山东滨州建成 300 万吨氧化铝产能，于 2025 年 11 月在港交所上 市。 产能地理位置优越，盈利能力行业领先。公司氧化铝产能靠近滨州港和黄骅 港，进口铝土矿内陆运费低廉，相比河南和山西等内陆产能，运费带来的氧 化铝成本优势在 200 元/吨以上。公司电解铝产能位于蒙东霍林河地区，使 用蒙东低热值褐煤发电炼铝，褐煤热值低、销售半径小，绝对价格和波动幅 度小于市场煤，公司近期自发电成本仅 0.3 元/度含税。相比新疆电解铝产 能聚集区，公司更靠近氧化铝产区和电解铝消费地，氧化铝运费和铝产品外 运费都低于新疆电解铝。公司净利率一直处于行业领先地位。 蒙东 1750MW 绿电并网后，煤电成本优势转变为绿电成本优势，同时实现低 碳和降本两个目标。公司 1750MW 风电光伏项目预计 2026 年全部 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the AI industry [1] Core Insights - The capital expenditure (Capex) guidance from major overseas companies is optimistic, with a continuous upward trend in computing power expected through 2026. The total Capex for Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta is projected to reach $406.5 billion in 2025 and $596.4 billion in 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 46% and 47% respectively [3][5][22] - The demand for AI-related infrastructure is driving significant upgrades in interconnects, cooling, and power supply sectors, indicating a long-term growth cycle distinct from previous technology cycles [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Major Companies' Capex Guidance - Major companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are expected to increase their Capex significantly, with projections of $186.4 billion, $139.5 billion, $162.5 billion, and $108 billion respectively for 2026 [6][7][14][18][21] - The overall Capex for these four companies is expected to account for 62% of the global AI-related Capex, which is projected to reach $960 billion by 2026 [22][23] 2. Interconnect Sector: Optical Modules and PCBs - The interconnect sector is experiencing a fundamental shift in demand due to AI server cluster construction, leading to simultaneous upgrades in computing boards, switches, and optical modules, which will increase both demand and pricing [3][4] - The deployment of 800G technology is expected to accelerate, with 1.6T technology entering the introduction phase [3] 3. Cooling Sector: Liquid Cooling Demand - The power density of AI GPU racks is projected to rise from 130 kW in 2024 to over 1 MW by 2029, making liquid cooling technology essential [3][4] 4. Power Supply Sector: AIDC Power Distribution Evolution - The evolution of AIDC power distribution methods is crucial, with a focus on HVDC and SST technologies to enhance system efficiency and reduce energy losses [3][4] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within various sectors: - Computing power: Haiguang Information - Interconnects - Optical modules: LightSpeed Technology, Huagong Technology - Interconnects - PCBs: Shenghong Technology, Shennan Circuits, and others - Cooling: Invec - Power supply: Magpow [3][4]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月20日 2026年01月21日 创新实业（02788.HK） 优于大市 蒙东低成本绿电铝，海外项目助力产能高增长 公司是一家氧化铝和电解铝生产企业，电解铝营收占比90%。公司成立于2012 年，十几年间在蒙东霍林河建成 6*330MW 燃煤自备电机组和 78.8 万吨电解 铝产能，在山东滨州建成 300 万吨氧化铝产能，于 2025 年 11 月在港交所上 市。 产能地理位置优越，盈利能力行业领先。公司氧化铝产能靠近滨州港和黄骅 港，进口铝土矿内陆运费低廉，相比河南和山西等内陆产能，运费带来的氧 化铝成本优势在 200 元/吨以上。公司电解铝产能位于蒙东霍林河地区，使 用蒙东低热值褐煤发电炼铝，褐煤热值低、销售半径小，绝对价格和波动幅 度小于市场煤，公司近期自发电成本仅 0.3 元/度含税。相比新疆电解铝产 能聚集区，公司更靠近氧化铝产区和电解铝消费地，氧化铝运费和铝产品外 运费都低于新疆电解铝。公司净利率一直处于行业领先地位。 蒙东 1750MW 绿电并网后，煤电成本优势转变为绿电成本优势，同时实现低 碳和降本两个目标。公司 1750MW 风电光伏项目预计 2026 年全部 ...