Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that in 2025, the A-share market will see significant inflows from active funds such as leveraged and private equity funds, while insurance capital will also play a substantial role, contrasting with the overall net redemption of actively managed public funds [1][2][3] - The report suggests that the current inflow of funds is primarily from high-net-worth individuals, and as the risk appetite of most residents gradually recovers from a low point, ordinary residents are expected to become the main source of market funds in 2026 [1][3] - The macroeconomic and microeconomic context of 2025 shares similarities with 2020, but the structure of incremental funds differs, leading to an estimated total inflow of 2 trillion yuan in 2026 as resident funds enter the market [1][4] Group 2 - In 2025, the main source of incremental funds in the A-share market will be active funds, with a notable inflow of 4.2 billion yuan from insurance capital and approximately 7 billion yuan from leveraged funds since July [2][19] - The report highlights that the inflow of funds in the first half of 2025 was characterized by a recovery in market sentiment, with significant contributions from retail investors and foreign capital, alongside a notable increase in insurance and ETF investments [2][14] - The report indicates that the incremental funds in 2025 primarily flowed into technology and dividend sectors, with insurance capital showing a marked increase in allocation to banking and transportation sectors [2][14] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the process of resident funds entering the market is still in its early stages, with indications that the current inflow is largely from high-net-worth individuals, as the majority of residents have not yet shown significant signs of entering the market [3][33] - It notes that while there is a warming trend in the risk appetite of residents, many remain cautious, with a significant portion of their funds still allocated to low-risk products [3][36] - The report also points out that the overall risk appetite of residents remains low, which may hinder a broader influx of resident funds into the market [3][41] Group 4 - The report forecasts that in 2026, the A-share market is expected to see a net inflow of 2 trillion yuan, driven by increased participation from retail investors and sustained high inflows from insurance capital [4][55] - It outlines that the inflow of funds will be supported by a combination of retail active funds, insurance capital, and improved conditions for public and foreign funds, with an estimated 10 billion yuan from retail and 7 billion yuan from insurance capital [4][57] - The report anticipates that the overall dividend scale will continue to grow, with an expected inflow of approximately 9.5 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a trend of increasing dividend payouts by listed companies [4][57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the media industry [5][44]. Core Insights - The media industry experienced a 2.27% increase, outperforming both the CSI 300 (-0.59%) and the ChiNext Index (-1.25%) during the week of December 29 to January 4 [1][12]. - Key companies showing significant gains include BlueFocus, Baidu Qiancheng, Yidian Tianxia, and Zhangyue Technology, while companies like Xinhua Dou, Beijing Culture, Guiguang Network, and Guangxi Broadcasting faced declines [1][12]. - Upcoming IPOs include Minimax and Zhizhu, with Minimax set to list on January 9 and Zhizhu on January 8, indicating a strong interest in AI applications [2][18]. - The total box office for the New Year's period reached 740 million yuan, with top films being "Zootopia 2," "Avatar 3," and "Killing" [2][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector ranked third in terms of performance among all sectors, with a weekly increase of 2.27% [1][14]. - The top-performing companies in the media sector included BlueFocus (30% increase), Baidu Qiancheng (17% increase), and Yidian Tianxia (16% increase) [13]. Upcoming IPOs - Minimax initiated its IPO process on December 31, with a planned listing on January 9, aiming to raise approximately 3.5 billion USD [2][18]. - Zhizhu's IPO is expected to raise around 4.3 billion HKD, with a market valuation exceeding 51.1 billion HKD [2][18]. Box Office Performance - The total box office for the week was 1.073 billion yuan, with "Zootopia 2" leading at 282 million yuan (26.2% share), followed by "Avatar 3" at 268 million yuan (24.9% share), and "Killing" at 195 million yuan (18.1% share) [3][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests capitalizing on opportunities in the gaming sector, particularly with companies like Giant Network, Kayi Network, and Jibite, as well as focusing on AI applications and film industry recovery [4][40]. - It emphasizes the potential for growth in AI applications, particularly in animation and short dramas, and recommends companies involved in these areas [4][40].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The recent strength of the insurance sector, represented by China Ping An, is driven by a combination of policy support, macroeconomic changes, fundamentals, and market liquidity [3][24] - The valuation of China Ping An is expected to be re-evaluated in 2026, driven by both internal adjustments in public fund allocations and external capital inflows [4][11] - The company's strategic focus on "comprehensive finance + ecosystem" aligns well with the aging economy and domestic demand themes, particularly through its investments in health and wellness and AI technologies [5][15][22] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for China Ping An, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 7.72, 8.57, and 9.26 CNY for 2025 to 2027, respectively [3][26] Market Dynamics - Since December 2025, the A-share insurance sector has seen a maximum monthly increase of 20%, with China Ping An reaching a nearly four-year high [2] - The appreciation of the RMB has attracted foreign capital to reallocate towards core Chinese assets, with China Ping An being a key choice due to its liquidity and low valuation [3][11] Internal and External Factors - Internally, the high-quality development of public funds is expected to shift from growth to value styles by 2026, favoring low-valuation, high-dividend stocks like China Ping An [3][4] - Externally, the strategic allocation of overseas capital is anticipated to increase, focusing on stable, high-dividend companies like China Ping An [4][11] Strategic Initiatives - China Ping An's investments in health and wellness, along with AI, are expected to create a second growth curve, enhancing service experience and operational efficiency [5][15][22] - The company is building a "finance + healthcare" service system that meets the growing demand for high-quality health and elderly care services, aligning with national policies to boost domestic consumption [15][22] Financial Projections - The report projects an average annual growth rate of 11% for the company's enterprise value (EV) over the next three years, with a reasonable P/EV valuation range of 1.02 to 1.13 [3][26] - The current P/EV ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 0.71, 0.65, and 0.59, respectively, indicating significant potential for valuation recovery [3][26]

Group 1 - The report highlights a "wide monetary + wide credit" environment, indicating stable credit expansion momentum and low risks of tightening financial conditions, which supports macroeconomic performance and asset markets [1][11] - In December, the major stock indices in China rose, reinforcing the consensus of a "slow bull" market, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, driven by increased ETF inflows [2][27] - The report suggests a shift in market style from a "dumbbell" approach favoring micro-cap and dividend value stocks to a more balanced "olive" shape favoring mid-cap stocks [2][27] Group 2 - The bond market showed signs of pressure, with the 10-year government bond yield declining faster than fundamental indicators, indicating accumulated adjustment risks [3][27] - The report notes that the Chinese yuan has returned to the "6" range, supported by external factors such as the weakening US dollar and internal economic recovery momentum [3][27] - Commodity markets displayed strength overall, with significant performance in precious metals like gold, driven by factors such as geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [4][27] Group 3 - The report recommends asset allocation strategies, suggesting a higher allocation to equities under an aggressive scenario (30% stocks, 70% bonds) and a more conservative approach (15% stocks, 85% bonds) [4][22] - Global asset allocation models indicate a preference for equities in various countries, with specific allocation percentages for major markets like the US, Germany, and Japan [22][23] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market sentiment indices, which can provide insights into investor behavior and market trends [50][57]

Investment Rating - The report rates the low-altitude economy industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [1] Core Insights - The general aviation market is steadily developing, with promising prospects for low-altitude operations driven by policy, technology, and marketization [2] - The global general aviation market is expected to grow, with an estimated delivery of 4,197 aircraft in 2024, generating a delivery value of $31.9 billion [3] - China's general aviation industry has significant growth potential compared to the U.S., particularly in infrastructure, aircraft numbers, and flight usage structure [4] Summary by Sections General Aviation Industry Overview - General aviation encompasses all flight activities except military and scheduled passenger/cargo flights, characterized by flexibility and a wide range of applications [12] - Traditional general aviation aircraft include fixed-wing planes and helicopters, while emerging types like drones and eVTOLs are gaining traction [19] Global General Aviation Market Situation - The global general aviation market has maintained growth, with annual deliveries exceeding 4,000 aircraft for two consecutive years [24] - In 2024, the delivery value of global general aviation aircraft is projected to reach $31.9 billion, marking a 13.5% increase from the previous year [27] - North America dominates the market, accounting for 70.4% of global deliveries, while the Asia-Pacific region shows the fastest growth [28] Comparison of China and the U.S. General Aviation Industries - The U.S. general aviation industry is highly developed, with a significant gap in infrastructure and aircraft numbers compared to China [40] - As of 2024, the number of registered general aviation airports in the U.S. is approximately 40 times that of China, highlighting the potential for growth in China's aviation infrastructure [43] New Opportunities in China's General Aviation Industry - The rise of low-altitude economy as a national strategy is creating new opportunities for the general aviation industry [64] - The market for low-altitude economy is projected to reach ¥859.17 billion by 2025, with significant contributions from low-altitude aircraft manufacturing and operational services [60]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The recent strength of the insurance sector, represented by the company, is driven by a combination of policy support, macroeconomic changes, fundamentals, and market capital flows [3] - The company is expected to benefit from a shift in market style from high-growth stocks to value stocks, with its low valuation and high dividend yield providing defensive value [14][26] - The company's strategic focus on "comprehensive finance + ecosystem" aligns well with the aging economy and domestic demand themes, creating a solid second growth curve [5][15] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Since December 2025, the A-share insurance sector has seen a maximum monthly increase of 20%, with the company achieving a near four-year high [2] - The appreciation of the RMB has attracted foreign capital to reallocate to core Chinese assets, with the company being a key choice due to its liquidity and low valuation [3][11] Internal and External Factors - Internally, the high-quality development of public funds is expected to lead to a shift from growth to value style by 2026, increasing demand for the company's low valuation and high dividend attributes [3][8] - Externally, the strategic allocation of overseas capital to Chinese assets is anticipated to rise, benefiting stable and high-dividend companies like the company [4][11] Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing in health and wellness, which aligns with the aging population's needs and domestic consumption policies, enhancing the value of its insurance products [15][22] - The integration of AI technology into its operations is expected to improve efficiency and service quality, further solidifying its competitive advantage [22][23] Financial Projections - The company maintains its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 to 2027 at 7.72, 8.57, and 9.26 CNY per share, with current price-to-embedded value (P/EV) ratios of 0.71, 0.65, and 0.59x [3][26] - The expected annual growth rate of the company's embedded value (EV) over the next three years is approximately 11%, with a reasonable P/EV valuation range of 1.02 to 1.13 [3][26]

Group 1: Banking Industry Outlook - The banking industry is expected to see M2 growth target around 7.5%, with credit growth at approximately 6.0% and social financing growth at about 8.0% for 2026, aligning with economic growth expectations [6][7] - The total M2 increment for 2026 is estimated to be around 25.4 trillion yuan, with fiscal net injection contributing approximately 12.0 trillion yuan and bank credit contributing about 16.8 trillion yuan [6] - The six major banks are projected to have a total of 57 trillion yuan in maturing time deposits in 2026, with a significant portion expected to flow from large banks to smaller banks [8] Group 2: Credit Allocation and Trends - Corporate lending is expected to contribute approximately 80%-85% of new loans, while retail lending is anticipated to show marginal improvement, contributing about 10%-15% [7] - The phenomenon of deposit migration from large banks to smaller banks is a key factor affecting the asset-liability gap in 2026, with large banks continuing to play a dominant role in credit and government bond allocations [7][8] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality stocks such as Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, while also considering stable high-dividend stocks like China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China for investment opportunities in 2026 [8] Group 4: Wealth Management and Financial Products - The wealth management industry is experiencing a slight contraction but has reached a historical high with a total scale of around 31.6 trillion yuan by the end of December 2025, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [9][10] - The transition to net value-based products in the banking sector is pushing wealth management companies to innovate, focusing on stabilizing net values and exploring new product designs such as dividend-type products [10][11] Group 5: Social Services Industry Insights - The domestic travel market showed a positive trend during the New Year holiday, with an estimated 142 million domestic trips taken, reflecting a 5.2% increase compared to 2024 [15][16] - Investment recommendations for 2026 emphasize the potential for service consumption growth, particularly in high-end recovery and the new cycle of duty-free shopping, as well as the restaurant sector [15][16] Group 6: AI and 3D Printing Industry Developments - The global consumer-grade 3D printing market is projected to grow from 4.1 billion USD in 2024 to 16.9 billion USD by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 33% [17][18] - Domestic companies are leading the consumer-grade 3D printing market, with significant market shares held by firms like Tuo Zhu Technology and Chuangxiang Sanwei [17][18] Group 7: AI Application and Market Growth - The AI market in China is expected to grow from 93.7 billion yuan in 2022 to 160.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 31% [23] - The leading AI company, Zhiyuan, has seen rapid revenue growth, with a 35.03% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025, despite facing short-term profit pressures [20][21]

- The report introduces the dividend point estimation method for stock indices, emphasizing its importance in accurately calculating the premium or discount levels of stock index futures contracts, which track price indices rather than total return indices[43][12][44] - The dividend point estimation process involves key metrics such as component stock weights, dividend amounts, total market capitalization, and index closing prices. While some data like market capitalization and closing prices are directly accessible, component stock weights and dividend amounts require further estimation[48][43][44] - Component stock weights are refined from monthly data provided by mainstream data providers to daily weights using a formula that adjusts for non-reinvested price changes. The formula is: $$W_{n,t}={\frac{w_{i0}\times(1+r_{n})}{\sum_{i=1}^{N}w_{i0}\times(1+r_{n})}}$$ where \(w_{i0}\) represents the weight of stock \(n\) at the last disclosed date, and \(r_{n}\) is the non-reinvested price change of stock \(n\) during the period[49][50] - Dividend amounts are estimated using the formula: Dividend Amount = Net Profit × Dividend Payout Ratio Net profit is dynamically predicted based on historical profit distributions, categorizing companies into stable and unstable profit distribution groups. Stable companies follow historical patterns, while unstable ones use prior-year data as a reference[51][53][56] - Dividend payout ratios are predicted using historical averages. If a company paid dividends last year, the previous year's ratio is used; otherwise, a three-year average is applied. Companies with no dividend history are assumed not to pay dividends[54][57][55] - Ex-dividend dates are forecasted using historical intervals and linear extrapolation methods. If historical dates are deemed unreasonable, default dates are applied based on typical dividend announcement timelines[55][60][58] - The accuracy of the dividend point estimation model is validated by comparing predicted dividend points with actual points for major indices like the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The model demonstrates high accuracy, with errors generally within 5 points for SSE 50 and CSI 300, and within 10 points for CSI 500 and CSI 1000[61][65][43] - The report highlights the predictive accuracy of the model for stock index futures contracts, showing minimal deviation between forecasted and actual dividend points for contracts across different indices[65][68][70]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

2026年01月07日 证券研究报告 | 垂类AI应用专题： 领先的独立大模型公司智谱，产品矩阵快速扩张 行业研究 · 行业快评 计算机 · 人工智能 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：熊莉 联系人：侯睿 xiongli1@guosen.com.cn S0980519030002 021-61761067 hourui3@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø 国内领先的AI公司，产品进入快速迭代阶段。北京智谱华章科技股份有限公司成立于2019年，是中国领先的AI公司，致力于追求通用人工智能创新。公司为机构客 户及个人用户提供通用大模型服务，已为逾八千家机构客户、约80百万台设备提供支持。以2024年收入计，公司是中国最大的独立大语言模型厂商及第二大大语言 模型厂商，市占率达6.6%，2022、2023、2024、2025H1公司日均token消耗量分别为5亿、21亿、0.2万亿及4.6万亿。 Ø 公司收入高速增长，净利润短期承压。2025H1公司实现收入1.91亿元，同比增长35.03%。分业务来看，本地化部 ...