全球储能需求持续释放，国内市场化需求驱动储能订单呈现爆发式增长； 美国数据中心等负荷引起的电力供应短缺推动美国大储装机需求提升； 欧洲电网不稳定情况和现货峰谷价差拉大均带动推动储能需求；新兴市 场各国政府扶持政策频出，储能装机需求有望大幅度提升。我们预计 2026 年全球储能装机需求达到 404GWh，同比增长+38%，建议关注【宁 德时代】、【亿纬锂能】、【阳光电源】、【德业股份】、【禾望电气】、 【盛弘股份】。 锂电产业链价格下行趋势有望反转，固态电池产业化提速。锂电产业链经历 几年下行期后，2026 年多数产品价格、盈利有望显著回暖。新技术方面，钢 壳电池、硅负极、储能大电芯均有望在 2026 年实现批量供应；固态电池技 术产业化处于加速阶段，有望在 2026 年实现产线规模扩大以及装车测试增 加，为 2027-2030 年的批量化应用奠定基础。建议关注【宁德时代】、【亿 纬锂能】、【中创新航】、【珠海冠宇】、【天赐材料】、【恩捷股份】、 【当升科技】、【厦钨新能】。 风电主机厂盈利能力修复，出口贡献业绩增长。2026 年国内风电新增装机有 望保持 10%-20%增长，订单饱和价格具有良好支撑。主机盈利 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月14日 2025年12月15日 公募 REITs 周报（第 46 期） 指数震荡下行，产权类表现更优 核心观点 固定收益周报 主要结论：本周中证 REITs 指数全周下跌 0.5%，产权类 REITs 和特许经营权 类 REITs 平均周涨跌幅为+0.4%、-0.6%。REITs 跑输主要股债指数，从主要 指数周涨跌幅对比来看，中证转债>中证全债>沪深 300>中证 REITs。截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，产权类 REITs 股息率比中证红利股股息率均值低 35BP， 经营权类 REITs 内部收益率均值与十年期国债收益率利差为 295BP。 中证 REITs 指数周涨跌幅为-0.5%，年初至今涨跌幅为 1.0%。截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，中证 REITs（收盘）指数收盘价为 797.54 点，整周 （2025/12/8-2025/12/12）涨跌幅为-0.5%，表现弱于中证转债指数（+0.2%）、 中证全债指数（+0.18%）和沪深 300 指数（-0.1%）。年初至今，各类主要 指数涨跌幅排序为：沪深 300（+16.4%）>中证转债（+16.5 ...

| 证券分析师： | 王艺熹 | 021-60893204 | wangyixi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522100006 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 吴越 | 021-60375496 | wuyue8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525080001 | | 证券分析师： | 赵婧 | 0755-22940745 | zhaojing@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513080004 | 我们定期梳理从公开渠道可获得的最新的可交换私募债（私募 EB）项目情况，对私募可交换债项目做基本 要素跟踪，私募发行条款发行过程可能有更改，请以最终募集说明书为准，发行进度请与相关主承销商咨 询。 本周新增项目信息如下：（部分项目因合规原因未予列示） 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月14日 2025年12月15日 可交换私募债跟踪 私募 EB 每周跟踪（20251208-20251212） 固定收益快评 1. 江苏国泰国际集团股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者非公开发行可交换公司 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月15日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-12 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3889.34 | 13258.32 | 4580.95 | 14048.68 | 3864.92 | 1348.88 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.41 | 0.84 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.88 | 1.73 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 9099.50 | 11822.55 | 5238.63 | 3946.97 | 5601.58 | 838.65 | $\frac{\pi\times6}{\pi\times6}$. (4) [ (4) 384938 1 宏观与策略 宏观快评:11 月金融数据解读-企业融资多渠道回暖 宏观周报:宏观经济周报-2026 总量为结构让位 宏观周报:多资产周报-铜价再创新高 固定收益专题研究:固收+系列报告之七-国债期货套利：正向套利实证研 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (December 8 - December 12), the A - share market was volatile. Two important meetings boosted market risk appetite, and trading volume increased. AI hardware and commercial aerospace led the gains, while coal and petroleum and petrochemical sectors lagged. The bond market slightly recovered, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield at 1.84% on Friday, down 0.84bp from the previous week. The convertible bond market had most individual bonds closing lower, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index up 0.20% for the week, the median price up 0.10%, and the calculated arithmetic average parity down 0.35%. The overall conversion premium rate increased by 2.20% compared to the previous week [1][6][7]. - Some issuers showed a strong willingness to convert. The convertible bond market followed the stock market's volatility last week. Despite the significant adjustment of the micro - cap stock index, the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed slightly higher, showing strong resilience and improved trading volume. Several issuers of near - maturing convertible bonds proposed downward revisions, and the pricing after the proposed downward revisions varied based on the remaining term and industry fundamentals [2][15]. - Looking ahead, with the end - of - year important meetings and the Fed's rate cut settled, the market will enter a policy vacuum period. Relative return investors are advised to make small - position balanced allocations of non - redeemable and appropriately - priced equity - biased convertible bonds in sectors such as power, storage, semiconductor equipment and materials for domestic substitution, commercial aerospace, and humanoid robots. Absolute return investors should focus on high - volatility stocks under 130 yuan or industry leaders with historically low valuations in sectors like two - wheeled vehicles, cosmetics, and breeding [2][15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Focus (December 8 - December 12) Stock Market - A - shares were volatile. The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion on Monday and Friday. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54% on Monday, fell 0.37% on Tuesday, fell 0.23% on Wednesday, fell 0.7% on Thursday, and rose 0.41% on Friday. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.39% on Monday, fell 0.39% on Tuesday, rose 0.29% on Wednesday, fell 1.27% on Thursday, and rose 0.84% on Friday. The ChiNext Index rose 2.6% on Monday, rose 0.61% on Tuesday, fell 0.02% on Wednesday, fell 1.41% on Thursday, and rose 0.97% on Friday [1][6]. - Most Shenwan primary industries closed lower. Communication (6.27%), national defense and military industry (2.80%), electronics (2.63%), machinery and equipment (1.38%), and power equipment (1.19%) led the gains, while coal (-3.64%), petroleum and petrochemical (-3.52%), steel (-2.89%), and real estate (-2.62%) lagged [7]. Bond Market - After the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, the moderately loose monetary policy remained unchanged, and inflation data showed a continued price improvement trend. The bond market slightly recovered, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield at 1.84% on Friday, down 0.84bp from the previous week [1][7]. Convertible Bond Market - Most individual convertible bonds closed lower. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.20% for the week, the median price rose 0.10%, and the arithmetic average parity fell 0.35%. The overall conversion premium rate increased by 2.20%. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in [90,100), [100,110), and [110,120) changed by +2.09%, -1.73%, and +0.20%, respectively, and were at the 94%, 96%, and 89% quantiles since 2023 [1][7]. - Most convertible bond industries closed lower. Building materials (+6.14%), national defense and military industry (+4.27%), power equipment (+1.25%), and beauty care (+0.94%) led the gains, while social services (-2.32%), coal (-2.12%), commercial and retail (-1.52%), and basic chemicals (-1.31%) lagged [8]. - The top - rising individual convertible bonds were Zai 22 (commercial aerospace), Huamao (computing power), Weidao (semiconductor equipment), Jize (green alcohol), and Hangyu (commercial aerospace). The top - falling individual convertible bonds were Yingbo (low - altitude economy & announced strong redemption), Hongtu (satellite application), Huarui (CNC cutting tools), Sanfang (polyester chips), and Yake (automobile aluminum) [1][10]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 285.692 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 57.138 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [13]. Valuation - As of December 12, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates for parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 45.18%, 34.97%, 27.88%, 20.1%, 10.88%, and 13.62%, respectively, at the 94%/90%, 94%/95%, 94%/95%, 91%/90%, 70%/53%, and 97%/98% quantiles since 2010/2021. - For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM for parities below 70 yuan was -3.48%, at the 2%/6% quantiles since 2010/2021. - The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 43.46%, at the 88%/91% quantiles since 2010/2021. The difference between the convertible bond's implied volatility and the stock's long - term actual volatility was 2.31%, at the 84%/85% quantiles since 2010/2021 [16]. Primary Market Tracking New Issuance and Listing - Last week (December 8 - December 12), Aohong, Shenyu, Tianzhun, and Dingjie convertible bonds announced issuance, while Maolai and Ruike convertible bonds were listed. - Aohong Convertible Bond (111024.SH): The underlying stock is Aohong Electronics (605058.SH), in the electronics industry. The issuance scale is 580 million yuan, with a credit rating of AA -. The funds will be used for the construction of a production base in Thailand [23]. - Shenyu Convertible Bond (123262.SZ): The underlying stock is Shenyu Co., Ltd. (300563.SZ), in the communication industry. The issuance scale is 500 million yuan, with a credit rating of AA -. The funds will be used for the construction of data lines in the intelligent field [24]. - Tianzhun Convertible Bond (118062.SH): The underlying stock is Tianzhun Technology (688003.SH), in the machinery and equipment industry. The issuance scale is 872 million yuan, with a credit rating of AA -. The funds will be used for R & D and industrialization projects in industrial vision equipment, semiconductor metrology equipment, and intelligent driving and embodied intelligent controllers [25][26]. - Dingjie Convertible Bond (123263.SZ): The underlying stock is Dingjie Digital Intelligence (300378.SZ), in the computer industry. The issuance scale is 828 million yuan, with a credit rating of AA. The funds will be used for the Dingjie Digital Intelligence Ecological Empowerment Platform project and to supplement working capital [27]. - Maolai Convertible Bond (118061.SH): The underlying stock is Maolai Optics (688502.SH), in the electronics industry. The issuance scale is 563 million yuan, with a credit rating of A+. The funds will be used for ultra - precision optical production and processing projects, ultra - precision optical technology R & D centers, and to supplement working capital [28]. - Ruike Convertible Bond (118060.SH): The underlying stock is Ruike Da (688800.SH), in the electronics industry. The issuance scale is 1 billion yuan, with a credit rating of AA -. The funds will be used for the renovation and upgrade of high - frequency and high - speed connection systems, intelligent energy connection systems, and to supplement working capital [29]. Future Issuance and Listing - As of December 12, there were no announcements of convertible bond issuances or listings for the next week (December 15 - December 19). - Last week, one company (Shuangle Co., Ltd.) was approved for registration, two companies (Tonglian Precision and Xianghe Industry) passed the listing committee review, three companies (Suzhou Tianmai, Baoti Co., Ltd., and Zhongqi Co., Ltd.) were accepted by the exchange, and two companies (Hubei Yihua and Zhaomin Technology) passed the shareholders' meeting. There were no new board - proposed enterprises. - As of now, there are 92 convertible bonds waiting to be issued, with a total scale of 146.43 billion yuan, including 3 approved for registration with a total scale of 2.5 billion yuan and 9 that have passed the listing committee review with a total scale of 9.99 billion yuan [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The global anticoagulant market exceeds $20 billion, primarily driven by stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation patients, with other indications including VTE prevention after knee/hip replacement and prevention of ischemic complications in myocardial infarction [2][5] - FXI/FXIa inhibitors are expected to become safer anticoagulants, as they target the intrinsic pathway of coagulation, potentially reducing bleeding risks while maintaining efficacy [2][21] - Several FXI/FXIa inhibitors are in clinical stages, with promising safety profiles demonstrated in various indications, including Bayer's asundexian achieving key clinical endpoints in secondary stroke prevention [2][26] - FXI small nucleic acid drugs may offer differentiated competitive advantages, with early-stage clinical data showing effective FXI activity suppression and potential for improved patient compliance [2][26] Summary by Sections Anticoagulant Drugs: Applications and Market Size - Anticoagulants are used in various medical scenarios, with a global market size exceeding $20 billion, driven by stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation patients [5][7] - Current anticoagulants include DOACs and low molecular weight heparins, with existing drugs presenting bleeding risks alongside their efficacy [5][21] FXI Inhibitors as Next-Generation Anticoagulants - FXI inhibitors are positioned to challenge standard treatments, with clinical trials indicating superior safety profiles compared to existing DOACs [2][26] - Notably, Bayer's asundexian has shown efficacy in secondary stroke prevention, marking a significant advancement in the field [2][69] Domestic FXI Small Nucleic Acid Drug Development Progress - Domestic companies are advancing in FXI small nucleic acid drug development, with promising early clinical results indicating effective FXI suppression and potential for improved dosing schedules [2][26] Investment Recommendations - FXI/FXIa inhibitors are projected to represent an upgrade and complement to existing anticoagulants, with a potential market space exceeding $10 billion [2][26] - The report suggests focusing on companies like HengRui Medicine, which is leading in domestic FXI monoclonal antibody development [2][26]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月14日 ETF 周报 首批 7 只科创创业人工智能 ETF 近期陆续上市 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2025 年 12 月 08 日至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度 收益率中位数为0.20%。宽基ETF中，创业板类ETF涨跌幅中位数为2.76%， 收益最高。按板块划分，科技 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 1.46%，收益最高。按 主题进行分类，芯片 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 2.69%，收益最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 97.56 亿元，总体规模增加 67.32 亿元。在宽基 ETF 中，上周 A500ETF 净申购最多，为 66.35 亿元；按板块来看，消费 ETF 净 申购最多，为 0.50 亿元；按热点主题来看，红利 ETF 净申购最多，为 19.20 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来看，消费、 大金融 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒 ETF 的估值分 位数相对较低。 ETF 融资融券情况 上周一至周四股票型 ETF 融资余额由 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月14日 基金周报 上周市场回顾。上周 A 股市场主要宽基指数走势出现分化，创业板指、 科创 50、中证 500 收益靠前，收益分别为 2.74%、1.72%、1.01%，上 证综指、沪深 300、中证 1000 收益靠后，收益分别为-0.34%、-0.08%、 0.39%。 从成交额来看，上周主要宽基指数成交额均有所上升。行业方面，上周 通信、国防军工、电子收益靠前，收益分别为 5.92%、3.57%、2.51%， 煤炭、石油石化、纺织服装收益靠后，收益分别为-3.80%、-3.43%、 -2.68%。 截至上周五，央行逆回购净投放资金 47 亿元，逆回购到期 6638 亿元， 净公开市场投放 6685 亿元。不同期限的国债利率均有所下行，利差扩 大 0.53BP。 上周共上报 61 只基金，较上上周申报数量有所增加。申报的产品包括 1 只 REITs，2 只 QDII，5 只 FOF，中证有色金属矿业主题 ETF、中证工 业有色金属主题 ETF、、中证工程机械主题 ETF、中证全指公用事业 ETF 等。 12 月 11 日，华泰柏瑞中证 A500ETF 的规模达到了 307 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月14日 AI 赋能资产配置(三十三) DeepSeek 与 Gemini，谁更懂 A 股？ 核心结论：①大模型具备一定的技术分析基本功：不论是 DeepSeek V3.2 还 是 Gemini 3 Pro，都能够在合适的提示词指引下，面对有限的蜡烛图，完成 顶底分型划分、笔和线段的擘画，中枢的构建等。 ②对于"已成型"走势， 大模型具备一定的"技术分析"能力： DeepSeek 在语言组织与长文本生成 上表现良好，Gemini 能精准识别"中枢扩张"与"走势多义性"，对买卖 点的几何定义执行严格。 ③Gemini 在"易用性"上更占优：Nano Banana Pro 能够完成简易图形标注，在实际使用的便利性上略胜一筹。 如何测评 DeepSeek 与 Gemini 的技术分析能力？公平公正下的"四同原 则"。1）数据同源：所有测试均使用同一来源，即上证指数的标准化 OHLC 价格数据，并以相同格式提供给双方模型；2）提示词同构：向两个模型传 达完全相同的任务指令、规则背景与输出格式要求； 3）环境同期：所有测 试任务将在相近的时间段内依次完成，以尽可能减少模型潜在更新带来的版 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月14日 资本周期与产业更迭专题 从美股产业更替看 A 股投资主线 策略研究·策略解读 | 证券分析师： | 王开 | 021-60933132 | wangkai8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521030001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 陈凯畅 | 021-60375429 | chenkaichang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090002 | 事项： 解读： 一、从美股市值结构看产业周期兴衰更迭 进入 21 世纪后，美国经济历经互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机，能源、原材料行业一度回潮，市值占比显著 提升；2011 年以来，移动互联网和平台经济崛起，信息技术行业市值占比从 11%飙升至 27%，成为市场主 导力量，能源行业市值占比则大幅下降超 10 个百分点。纵观百年变迁，美国股市行业市值分布从以能源、 工业为主导，逐步过渡到以信息技术、金融为核心，这既反映技术革命对产业结构的深刻影响，也体现美 国经济从制造业主导向服务业和知识经济主导的转型，为理解产业升级与 ...