证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 ETF 周报 A500 ETF 净申购超 300 亿元，上周新成立三只科创创业人工 智能 ETF 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2025 年 12 月 15 日至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度 收益率中位数为-0.26%。宽基 ETF 中，上证 50ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 0.67%， 收益最高。按板块划分，大金融 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 1.22%，收益最高。 按主题进行分类，军工 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 2.56%，收益最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净申购 554.47 亿元，总体规模增加 389.92 亿元。在 宽基 ETF 中，上周 A500ETF 净申购最多，为 326.39 亿元；按板块来 看，科技 ETF 净申购最多，为 63.82 亿元；按热点主题来看，芯片 ETF 净申购最多，为 30.50 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来看， 消费、大金融 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒、新 能车 ET ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（187） 优于大市 牧业产能维持去化，看好肉奶周期共振反转 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏维持增长，中期供给压力较大。12 月 19 日，鸡蛋主 产区价格 3.07 元/斤，周环比-0.65%，同比-5.98%。 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。12 月 19 日生猪价格 11.57 元/ 公斤，周环比+2.03%；7kg 仔猪价格约 218.57 元/头，周环比-0.43%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。12 月 19 日，鸡苗价格 3.37 元/ 羽，周环比-0.30%；毛鸡价格 7.28 元/公斤，周环比+0.55%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。12 月 18 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 5.0/5.9/7.5 元 ， 周 环 比 分 别 +8.70%/+5.36%/-8.54%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好牛周期反转上行。12 月 12 日，国内育肥 公牛出栏价为 25.40 元/kg，环比+0.79 ...

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3][4]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 优于大市 《保险公司资产负债管理办法（征求意见稿）》点评 匹配为基，风险导向 |  行业研究·行业快评 | | |  | 非银金融·保险Ⅱ |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 孔祥 | 021-60375452 | | kongxiang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523060004 | | 证券分析师： | 王京灵 | 0755-22941150 | | wangjingling@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525070007 | 事项： 2025 年 12 月 19 日，金融监督管理总局针对《保险公司资产负债管理办法（征求意见稿）》（以下简称《办 法》）公开征求意见。 国信非银观点：《办法》的发布标志着我国保险业资产负债管理监管体系即将从"暂行办法"迈入"全面 规管"的新阶段。此举旨在将此前分散的监管要求进行系统整合，构建更具刚性约束、更注重长期价值导 向的监管框架。我们认为《办法》的出台是推动保险业从规模驱动 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, A-shares were volatile and stabilized, with reduced market volume. Policies on stimulating domestic demand and the upcoming full - scale customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port boosted the large - consumption sector. The medical and commercial sectors performed well, while the previously rising TMT and new energy sectors lagged. The bond market first declined and then rose. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.83% on Friday, down 0.88bp from the previous week. Most convertible bond issues rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index up 0.48% for the week, the median price up 0.81%, and the calculated arithmetic average parity up 0.73% for the week, and the market conversion premium rate down 0.36% compared with the previous week [1][2][9] - In the coming week, the small - and micro - cap stocks performed well last week, and convertible bonds rose slightly following the underlying stocks. The median price rose to 132 yuan, and the premium rates of convertible bonds in most parity ranges increased. However, convertible bond ETFs have faced outflow pressure for 4 consecutive weeks, showing a "passive to active" structural feature. Recently, the willingness of several convertible bond issuers to promote conversion has significantly increased. Under the expectation of the spring rally, the parity of convertible bonds is expected to further rise. The number of issues actually facing maturity repayment is relatively limited, and some issues with longer remaining terms still have high conversion opportunities. Currently, the valuation of the convertible bond market is still at a historical high, and it is difficult to find overall opportunities. Relative - return investors are recommended to allocate small - position, well - balanced non - callable and suitable - premium equity - biased convertible bonds, and absolute - return investors are advised to focus on high - volatility underlying stocks below 130 yuan or industry leaders with historically low valuations [3][18] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market Focus Last Week (December 15 - December 19, 2025) Stock Market - A - shares were volatile and stabilized with reduced volume. Policies and the Hainan event boosted the consumption sector, and the medical and commercial sectors performed well due to the flu and AI. The TMT and new energy sectors lagged. The market showed daily fluctuations in indices and sector performances. Most of the Shenwan primary industries rose, with the top - gainers being commerce and retail (6.66%), non - bank finance (2.90%), beauty and care (2.87%), social services (2.66%), and basic chemicals (2.58%), while electronics (-3.28%), power equipment (-3.12%), machinery (-1.56%), and comprehensive (-1.53%) underperformed [8][9] Bond Market - The bond market first declined and then rose. Despite weak economic data and equity market adjustments at the beginning of the week, bond market sentiment was poor. The central bank's 1000 - billion - yuan 14 - day reverse repurchase operation on Thursday stabilized capital expectations, and bond market sentiment recovered in the second half of the week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.83% on Friday, down 0.88bp from the previous week [1][9] Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index was up 0.48% for the week, the median price was up 0.81%, the calculated arithmetic average parity was up 0.73% for the week, and the market conversion premium rate was down 0.36% compared with the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in the parity ranges of [90,100), [100,110), and [110,120) increased by 4.71%, 0.84%, and 0.85% respectively, reaching the 100%, 98%, and 94% percentile values since 2023. Most industries in the convertible bond market rose, with commerce and retail (+5.34%), light industry manufacturing (+4.73%), steel (+2.13%), and beauty and care (+1.95%) leading, while non - bank finance (-4.26%), communication (-0.50%), coal (-0.39%), and household appliances (-0.31%) lagged. The top - gainers among individual issues were Jiamei, Huati, Zai 22, Huicheng, and Huayi convertible bonds, and the top - losers were Nenghui, Borui, Furong, Jingda, and Weidao convertible bonds. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 3073.22 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 614.64 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [2][9][12] Views and Strategies (December 22 - December 26, 2025) - Small - and micro - cap stocks performed well last week, and convertible bonds rose slightly following the underlying stocks. The median price rose to 132 yuan, and the premium rates of convertible bonds in most parity ranges increased. However, convertible bond ETFs have faced outflow pressure for 4 consecutive weeks, showing a "passive to active" structural feature. Some low - price convertible bonds and large - cap, high - rating, near - maturity convertible bonds such as Huaan, Guotou, and Nenghua adjusted significantly, reflecting market concerns about the credit of low - quality issues and the conversion ability of near - maturity issues [3][18] - Recently, the willingness of several convertible bond issuers to promote conversion has significantly increased. Under the expectation of the spring rally, the parity of convertible bonds is expected to further rise. The number of issues actually facing maturity repayment is relatively limited, and some issues with longer remaining terms still have high conversion opportunities. If there are significant adjustments, investors can buy at low prices [3][18] - Currently, the valuation of the convertible bond market is still at a historical high, and it is difficult to find overall opportunities. Relative - return investors are recommended to allocate small - position, well - balanced non - callable and suitable - premium equity - biased convertible bonds in sectors such as power, storage, domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment and materials, commercial aerospace, and humanoid robots. Absolute - return investors are advised to focus on high - volatility underlying stocks below 130 yuan or industry leaders in sectors such as two - wheeled vehicles, cosmetics, and breeding with historically low valuations [3][18] Valuation Overview - As of December 19, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates in the parity ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 43.38%, 39.68%, 28.72%, 20.96%, 12.59%, and 13.84% respectively, at the 90%/82%, 98%/100%, 95%/97%, 93%/94%, 80%/70%, and 98%/98% percentile values since 2010/2021. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of issues with a parity below 70 yuan was -3.99%, at the 2%/5% percentile values since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 44.18%, at the 90%/96% percentile values since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was 3.03%, at the 86%/87% percentile values since 2010/2021 [19] Primary - Market Tracking - Last week (December 15 - December 19, 2025), there were no announcements of convertible bond issuances or listings. As of December 19, there were no announcements of convertible bond issuances in the coming week (December 22 - December 26, 2025), but Puxian Convertible Bond will be listed. Puxian Convertible Bond has an issue size of 243 million yuan, a credit rating of A+, and is scheduled to be listed on December 22. The underlying stock is Puxian Software, with a market value of 4.663 billion yuan as of December 19. The company focuses on management software development in the energy industry. In 2024, its revenue was 836 million yuan (+11.6% year - on - year), and the net profit was 121 million yuan (+95.06% year - on - year). From Q1 - Q3 2025, the revenue was 300 million yuan (+2.17% year - on - year), and the net profit was 100,000 yuan (-90.07% year - on - year) [27] - Last week, the exchanges approved the registration of 2 companies (Shangtai Technology and Jinpan Technology), the listing committees passed the applications of 3 companies (Zhanggao Electric, Doctor Glasses, and Haitian Co., Ltd.), the exchanges accepted the applications of 2 companies (Ruihu Mould and Nanxin Technology), the general meetings of shareholders passed the proposal of 1 company (Zuoli Pharmaceutical), and the board of directors proposed the issuance of 1 company (Tianshan Electronics). As of now, there are 93 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 146.9 billion yuan, including 5 issues with a total scale of 5.9 billion yuan that have been approved for registration and 10 issues with a total scale of 8.52 billion yuan that have passed the listing committee [28]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 可交换私募债跟踪 私募 EB 每周跟踪（20251215-20251219） 1. 南山集团有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者非公开发行可交换公司债券项目获交易所受理，拟发行规模 为 30 亿元，正股为南山铝业（600219.SH），主承销商为金圆统一证券，交易所更新日期为 2025 年 12 月 17 日； 风险提示 项目获批进度不及预期，经济增速下滑 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 1 固定收益快评 | 证券分析师： | 王艺熹 | 021-60893204 | wangyixi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522100006 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 吴越 | 021-60375496 | wuyue8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525080001 | | 证券分析师： | 赵婧 | 0755-22940745 | zhaojing@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513080004 | 我们定期梳理从公开渠道可获 ...

行业研究·行业快评 纺织服饰 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 丁诗洁 0755-81981391 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980520040004 证券分析师： 刘佳琪 010-88005446 liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523070003 事项： 公司公告：2025年12月18日，耐克披露截至2025年11月30日的2026财年第二季度业绩：公司实现收入124 亿美元，同比+1%，不变汇率口径0%。 国信纺服观点：1）业绩和指引核心观点：FY2026Q2 业绩略好于管理层此前指引和彭博一致预期、各区 域和渠道恢复速度有差异、大中华区压力较大，Q3 指引不及彭博一致预期，管理层表示公司处于恢复 的中期阶段；2）FY2026Q2 业绩：收入整体好于管理层指引及彭博一致预期，北美地区及批发渠道引领 增长，鞋类收入降幅收窄、跑鞋引领增长、经典鞋款拖累，中国市场和 Converse 品牌持续承压，毛利 率下降幅度与管理层指引一致；3）分地区：北美表现强劲，大中华区压力显著，各地区批发渠道增长 普遍优于直营，北美、大中华区、亚太拉 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 东方电缆（603606.SH） 突破亚洲国际海底电缆大单，构筑全球产业竞争力 公司研究·公司快评 电力设备·电网设备 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 王蔚祺 010-88005313 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980520080003 证券分析师： 王晓声 010-88005231 wangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523050002 事项： 公司公告：公司及全资子公司东方海工院近期中标多个项目，包括亚洲区域海洋能源互联超高压海缆及施 工敷设 EPCI 总包项目 19 亿元，海上风电项目的工程施工、运维抢修以及脐带缆等项目 1.08 亿元等，中 标金额合计约 31.25 亿元，占公司 2024 年营业收入的 34.37%。 国信电新观点：1）公司坚持"海陆并进"，统筹推进国际、国内两大市场，重大项目的中标将为公司"十 五五"业绩增长提供夯实的基础。2）项目带来的技术沉淀与市场拓展效应，将进一步助力构建国内外市 场协同发展的良好格局，进一步提升公司的核心竞争力、市场影响力和品牌影响 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月20日 2025年12月21日 多因子选股周报 估值因子表现出色，沪深 300 增强组合年内超额收益 20.75% 核心观点 金融工程周报 国信金工指数增强组合表现跟踪 以中证 500 指数为选股空间。最近一周，预期 BP、BP、三个月机构覆盖等 因子表现较好，而 DELTAROA、单季净利同比增速、标准化预期外盈利等 因子表现较差。 以中证 1000 指数为选股空间。最近一周，预期 PEG、单季 SP、SPTTM 等因子表现较好，而一年动量、三个月反转、一个月反转等因子表现较差。 以中证 A500 指数为选股空间。最近一周，三个月换手、股息率、DELTAROE 等因子表现较好，而三个月反转、单季营收同比增速、一年动量等因子表现 较差。 以公募重仓指数为选股空间。最近一周，BP、SPTTM、预期 BP 等因子表 现较好，而一年动量、单季营收同比增速、单季净利同比增速等因子表现较 差。 公募基金指数增强产品表现跟踪 目前，公募基金沪深 300 指数增强产品共有 79 只（A、C 类算作一只，下 同），总规模合计 799 亿元。中证 500 指数增强产品共有 76 只，总规模合 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月20日 2025年12月21日 多因子选股周报 估值因子表现出色，沪深 300 增强组合年内超额收益 20.75% 核心观点 金融工程周报 国信金工指数增强组合表现跟踪 因子表现监控 以沪深 300 指数为选股空间。最近一周，DELTAROE、股息率、DELTAROA 等因子表现较好，而单季营收同比增速、一个月反转、标准化预期外收入等 因子表现较差。 以中证 500 指数为选股空间。最近一周，预期 BP、BP、三个月机构覆盖等 因子表现较好，而 DELTAROA、单季净利同比增速、标准化预期外盈利等 因子表现较差。 以中证 1000 指数为选股空间。最近一周，预期 PEG、单季 SP、SPTTM 等因子表现较好，而一年动量、三个月反转、一个月反转等因子表现较差。 以中证 A500 指数为选股空间。最近一周，三个月换手、股息率、DELTAROE 等因子表现较好，而三个月反转、单季营收同比增速、一年动量等因子表现 较差。 以公募重仓指数为选股空间。最近一周，BP、SPTTM、预期 BP 等因子表 现较好，而一年动量、单季营收同比增速、单季净利同比增速等因子表现较 差。 公募基金指 ...