Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Underperform the Market" [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The US service sector activity rebounded significantly in October, with inflation pressure rising. The ISM Services PMI reached 52.4, a new eight - month high, and the price index soared to 70, a three - year high. The employment index is still in the contraction range, but the decline rate has slowed [1] - There is a growing divergence among Fed voting members on the future path of interest rate cuts. There are sharp differences between "doves" and "hawks", and the probability of a 25bp rate cut in December is 67% [2] - The US government is about to end the shutdown, and the liquidity pressure is expected to ease. Once the government restarts, the frozen fiscal expenditure will be released, and nearly $1 trillion in the TGA account will flow back into the market [3] - The current market features economic resilience, inflation pressure, and policy uncertainty. It is recommended to use a short - to - medium - duration strategy to capture returns, while guarding against long - term interest rate risks and maintaining portfolio flexibility. The investment strategy for US Treasuries is still mainly defensive and secondarily aggressive [4] Summary by Directory US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rate - Figures include 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, the Treasury yield curve, bid - to - cover ratios for various maturities of Treasuries, issuance winning bid rates for 2 - 30 - year Treasuries, monthly Treasury issuance, and the implied interest rate cut expectations in the federal funds futures market [12][16][18] US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - Figures cover US inflation year - on - year trends, the US federal government's annual cumulative fiscal deficit (fiscal year), the US economic surprise index, ISM PMI, consumer confidence index, financial conditions index, housing rent growth rate, number of unemployment benefit claimants, hourly wage year - on - year growth rate, non - farm payroll data, new housing approvals, starts, and sales year - on - year growth rates in the real estate market, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth rate, break - even inflation expectations, and new ADP employment [24][26][28] Exchange Rates - Figures show the one - year trend of non - US currencies, the two - week changes in non - US currencies, the Sino - US sovereign bond yield spread, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, the US dollar index and the RMB index, and the one - year locked - in exchange cost changes of the US dollar against the RMB [50][55][57] Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - Figures display the return trends of Chinese - issued US dollar bonds since 2023 (by rating and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - issued US dollar bonds, and the two - week returns (by rating and industry) [64][66][69] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 12 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 5 rating withdrawals, 3 initial ratings, 2 rating downgrades, and 2 rating upgrades [72]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry, indicating expected performance above the market average [2][29]. Core Insights - The European Union (EU) has launched a €3.3 billion investment plan to support the decarbonization of the aviation and shipping sectors, focusing on the development of renewable and low-carbon fuel production systems [3][10]. - The demand for SAF is primarily driven by policy initiatives, with the EU aiming for a 2% blending target by 2025 and a long-term goal of 70% by 2050. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects SAF demand to reach 358 million tons by 2050, indicating significant growth potential [4][6]. - The EU's ambitious decarbonization goals require an estimated €100 billion investment by 2035 to meet future SAF demand, with the recent investment plan signaling a commitment to stabilize investor confidence and expand the renewable fuel production and usage [4][10][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Plan and Policy Framework - The EU's Sustainable Transport Investment Plan outlines a roadmap for promoting the use of renewable and low-carbon fuels, aiming for a 90% reduction in transport-related carbon emissions by 2050. The plan includes a target of 20% SAF blending by 2035 and requires approximately €100 billion in investments, with 60% allocated to aviation fuels [10][14]. - The plan also establishes a mechanism to stabilize returns for producers and reduce investment risks, enhancing international cooperation to boost global renewable fuel production [16] Market Dynamics and Pricing - SAF prices have surged due to high production costs compared to traditional jet fuel, with the price of high-end SAF in China reaching $2,650 per ton as of November 10, 2023, a 47.22% increase from the beginning of the year [4][18]. - The scarcity of SAF raw materials, such as used cooking oil (UCO), is expected to sustain high market demand and pricing, as the EU's mandatory blending targets remain unchanged [4][18]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends investing in 嘉澳环保 (Jiaao Environmental Protection) and 卓越新能 (Zhuoyue New Energy). Jiaao Environmental Protection is a leading domestic SAF producer with a capacity of 500,000 tons and has received export approval. Zhuoyue New Energy is a major biodiesel producer with plans to expand its SAF production capacity [5][23]. Financial Performance - Companies in the renewable fuel sector, such as Neste, have reported significant growth in their operations, with a notable increase in production and sales volumes, reflecting the rising demand and prices for renewable fuels [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" rating for the U.S. stock market [5]. Core Views - The U.S. service sector showed significant recovery in October, with the ISM Services PMI reaching 52.4, the highest in eight months, driven by a surge in new orders [1]. - Inflationary pressures are rising, with the price index for business input costs soaring to 70, the highest in three years, indicating increased cost pressures in the service sector [1]. - The Federal Reserve faces uncertainty regarding future interest rate cuts, with a notable divide among committee members on the aggressiveness of potential rate reductions [2]. - The U.S. government is nearing the end of a 40-day shutdown, which is expected to alleviate liquidity pressures in the market once fiscal spending is released [3]. Summary by Sections Economic Activity - The U.S. economy is exhibiting resilience, with service sector activity rebounding and inflation pressures complicating the Federal Reserve's anti-inflation efforts [1][2]. - The employment index remains in contraction territory, but the rate of decline has slowed to the slowest pace in five months [1]. Monetary Policy - There is a strong debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of future interest rate cuts, with a 67% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [2]. Government Operations - A bipartisan agreement in the Senate is expected to end the government shutdown, which has significantly impacted economic forecasts, with GDP growth for Q4 potentially halved [3]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests utilizing a medium to short-duration strategy to capture yields while managing long-term interest rate risks, recommending a core allocation in 2-5 year U.S. Treasuries [4]. - Caution is advised regarding long-term bonds due to high government debt and fiscal deficit pressures, with a focus on maintaining flexibility in investment portfolios [4].

Core Insights - The current AI wave is not a repeat of the 2000 internet bubble, as it is driven by profitable "cash cow" companies rather than speculative "concept stocks" [3][5][6] - Investment strategies should shift from focusing on a few semiconductor leaders to a diversified approach across the entire value chain, including upstream (data centers, power facilities) and downstream (enterprise SaaS applications, AI security and governance) [3][23] Historical Review - The valuation levels in 2025 are significantly lower than the peak of the 2000 bubble, with the Nasdaq 100's forward P/E at approximately 26.7 times compared to 60 times in 2000 [5][6] - The quality of earnings is crucial, with only about 14% of ".com" companies profitable in 2000, while the S&P 500 IT sector's net profit margin is projected to be 27.7% in Q3 2025 [6][7] - The current investment landscape is characterized by substantial capital expenditures on real AI infrastructure, contrasting with the speculative marketing of the past [7] Industry Landscape - North American cloud providers are focusing on three main AI lines: upgrading product architectures, launching independent applications, and enhancing existing product capabilities with AI [8] - Capital expenditures among major cloud service providers are expected to grow significantly, with a projected year-on-year increase of 55% in FY2024 and over 40% in FY2025 [8][9] AI Market Dynamics - The AI industry is experiencing exponential growth in computing demand, with projections indicating a 3.5 times increase in AI computing needs by 2030, translating to $6.7 trillion in spending [13][14] - Supply constraints in AI infrastructure are expected to persist, with significant challenges in power supply and semiconductor production capacity [14] Investment Recommendations - The shift from speculation to practical applications in AI is evident, with predictions that by 2026, 40% of enterprise applications will incorporate AI agents [23] - A diversified investment strategy across the entire AI value chain is recommended, moving beyond a narrow focus on leading companies to include emerging applications and infrastructure [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry, indicating expected performance above the market average [2][29]. Core Insights - The European Union (EU) has launched a €3.3 billion investment plan to support the decarbonization of the aviation and shipping sectors, focusing on the development of renewable and low-carbon fuel production systems [3][10]. - The demand for SAF is primarily driven by policy initiatives, with the EU aiming for a 2% blending target by 2025 and a long-term goal of 70% by 2050. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects SAF demand to reach 358 million tons by 2050, indicating significant growth potential [4][6]. - The EU's ambitious decarbonization goals necessitate an estimated €100 billion investment by 2035 to meet future SAF demand, with the recent investment plan signaling a commitment to stabilize investor confidence [4][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Plan and Policy Framework - The EU's Sustainable Transport Investment Plan (STIP) outlines a roadmap for promoting the use of renewable and low-carbon fuels, aiming for a 90% reduction in transport-related carbon emissions by 2050 [10][14]. - The plan includes specific investment allocations, such as €2 billion for developing sustainable alternative fuels and €1.53 billion for synthetic aviation fuels [14][16]. Market Dynamics and Pricing - SAF prices have surged due to high production costs compared to traditional jet fuel, with the price of high-end SAF in China reaching $2,650 per ton as of November 10, 2023, a 47.22% increase from the beginning of the year [4][18]. - The scarcity of SAF raw materials, such as used cooking oil (UCO), is expected to sustain high market demand and pricing [4][18]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies like Jiaao Environmental and Excellent New Energy, which are positioned as leaders in the SAF market with significant production capacities [5][23]. - Jiaao Environmental has a SAF production capacity of 500,000 tons and has received export licenses, while Excellent New Energy is expanding its biodiesel and SAF production capabilities [5][23].

Key Insights - The report highlights the growth potential of 康耐特光学 (Kangnate Optical), a leading optical lens provider, as it expands into the XR (Extended Reality) eyewear market, projecting a revenue CAGR of 15% and a profit CAGR of 33% from 2021 to 2024 [8][10] - The traditional lens industry is expected to see a retail revenue of $54.3 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.7% globally and 5.0% in China from 2019 to 2024 [8][9] - The XR eyewear segment is anticipated to grow significantly, with global sales projected to reach approximately 16 million units if penetration increases to 10% over the next five years [9] Company Analysis - 康耐特光学 is positioned as the second-largest global resin lens manufacturer by sales volume and fifth by revenue, with a strong focus on high-refractive index lenses and flexible small-batch services [10] - The company has established solid relationships with international brand clients and is increasing its high-end product and proprietary brand offerings, which are expected to drive structural growth in revenue and profitability [10] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 540 million, 660 million, and 830 million RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 25.6%, 22.1%, and 26.9% [10] Industry Overview - The traditional lens market remains fragmented, with major players like EssilorLuxottica leveraging differentiated products and acquisitions to achieve significant revenue [8] - The AI eyewear market is characterized by high technical barriers due to the requirements for lightweight and high optical performance lenses, creating opportunities for specialized lens manufacturers [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation and technological advancement in capturing market share within the rapidly evolving XR eyewear segment [9][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report regularly tracks the latest private exchangeable bond (Private EB) project information from public channels, including basic elements such as issuance scale, underlying stocks, and project status. It emphasizes that the issuance terms and processes may change, and the final prospectus should be referred to. The latest update shows that the private exchangeable bond project of Hangzhou Iron & Steel Group Co., Ltd. in 2025 has been approved by the exchange [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog - **New Project Information**: Last week (20251103 - 20251107), the private exchangeable bond project of Hangzhou Iron & Steel Group Co., Ltd. in 2025 was approved by the exchange, with a proposed issuance scale of 1 billion yuan, and the underlying stock is Hangzhou Steel Co., Ltd. (600126.SH), and the lead underwriter is Zheshang Securities. The exchange updated the information on November 7, 2025 [1]. - **Project Status Table**: The table lists the status of multiple private exchangeable bond projects, including approved projects such as those of Yingfeng Group Co., Ltd. and Guangdong Guangxin Holdings Group Co., Ltd., and projects in the feedback stage such as those of Guangdong Shengyi Technology Co., Ltd. and New Hope Group Co., Ltd., as well as an accepted project of Strait Innovation Internet Co., Ltd. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report is optimistic about the small - cap style, with equity - biased convertible bonds being dominant. In the short - term, the market may still present mainly structural opportunities. Attention should be paid to high - growth sectors such as energy storage, semiconductor equipment and materials, and innovative drugs; sectors with improved supply - demand like photovoltaic and chemical industries; as well as high - dividend sectors such as banks and power, and look for layout opportunities in individual stocks with high volatility of the underlying stocks or low - premium equity - biased convertible bonds [1][2][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends (2025/11/3 - 2025/11/7) Stock Market - The equity market continued its volatile upward trend last week, with rapid sector rotation among trading days. Due to increased power grid investment and the rapid development of AI driving higher power demand, the power equipment sector performed well. Overall, the value style was dominant, and the technology sector was weak. Among the daily performances, on Monday, the three major A - share indexes rose collectively; on Tuesday, they all declined; on Wednesday, they rose again; on Thursday, they continued to rise; and on Friday, they adjusted [1][7]. - In terms of industries, most Shenwan primary industries closed higher. The power equipment (4.98%), coal (4.52%), petroleum and petrochemical (4.47%), steel (4.39%), and basic chemical (3.54%) sectors led the gains, while the beauty care (-3.10%), computer (-2.54%), pharmaceutical biology (-2.40%), and automobile (-1.24%) sectors lagged [8]. Bond Market - In the first half of the week, the bond market was relatively flat under a generally balanced capital situation. However, in the second half of the week, with the implementation of the central bank's bond trading, the resurgence of the equity market, and the expiration of 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases leading to a marginal tightening of funds, the bond market weakened. The 10 - year treasury bond yield closed at 1.81% on Friday, up 1.88bp from the previous week [1][8]. Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues closed higher last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.86% for the week, the median price increased by 0.21%, the calculated arithmetic average parity rose 0.48% for the week, and the overall market conversion premium rate decreased by 0.09% compared with the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of [90,100), [100,110), and [110,120) changed by +1.18%, +0.33%, and +1.39% respectively, and were at the 89%, 96%, and 93% quantiles since 2023 [1][8]. - In terms of industries, most convertible bond industries closed higher. The steel (+3.18%), power equipment (+2.66%), coal (+2.53%), and commercial retail (+2.05%) sectors led the gains, while the computer (-1.68%), automobile (-1.54%), media (-1.34%), and electronics (-0.91%) sectors lagged [9]. - At the individual bond level, Zhongneng (power grid equipment), Zhenhua (chromium salt), Dazhong (lithium mine), Hangyu (aerospace), and Jize (green alcohol) convertible bonds led the gains, while Titan (solid - state battery), Hengshuai (robot), Jizhi (robot), Yuguang (precious metals), and Yinlun (robot & liquid cooling) convertible bonds led the losses [1][11]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 342.631 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 68.526 billion yuan, higher than the previous week [15]. Views and Strategies (2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14) - The equity market continued to drive convertible bonds upward last week. The market median remained at a high level around 132 yuan. The valuations of most convertible bonds in different parity ranges increased slightly, but the valuations of convertible bonds with parities above 130 were compressed, indicating that the follow - up ability of high - priced equity - biased varieties was generally limited at the current valuation level. The convertible bond ETF continued the net outflow trend since the end of last month [2][17]. - Looking ahead, the market has recently entered a relative vacuum period for listed company performance and important policies. Historically, the small - cap growth style has been relatively dominant, which is somewhat in line with the convertible bond style. However, the convertible bond holder structure data from the exchange in the past two months shows that institutions with absolute - return preferences such as insurance companies have shown obvious profit - taking behavior after the previous high increases in convertible bonds. Therefore, the short - term market may still present mainly structural opportunities. Attention should be paid to high - growth sectors such as energy storage, semiconductor equipment and materials, and innovative drugs; sectors with improved supply - demand like photovoltaic and chemical industries; as well as high - dividend sectors such as banks and power, and look for layout opportunities in individual stocks with high volatility of the underlying stocks or low - premium equity - biased convertible bonds [2][17]. Valuation Overview - As of last Friday (2025/11/07), for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 49.03%, 33.61%, 27.43%, 20.6%, 12.68%, and 10.31% respectively, at the 99%/100%, 92%/91%, 94%/95%, 92%/94%, 81%/72%, and 88%/79% quantiles since 2010/2021 [18]. - For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of convertible bonds with parities below 70 yuan was - 5.5%, at the 0%/1% quantiles since 2010/2021 [18]. - The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 41.2%, at the 80%/72% quantiles since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was - 0.72%, at the 75%/76% quantiles since 2010/2021 [18]. Primary Market Tracking - Last week (2025/11/3 - 2025/11/7), Zhuomei Convertible Bond announced its issuance, and Jinlang Zhuan 02 was listed [26][27]. - Zhuomei Convertible Bond (123260.SZ): The underlying stock is Xingyuan Zhuomei (301398.SZ), belonging to the automobile industry. As of November 7, its market value was 5.937 billion yuan. The company is a professional manufacturer of large - and medium - sized aluminum and magnesium alloy die - casting molds. The issued convertible bond has a scale of 450 million yuan, a credit rating of A+, and was announced for issuance on November 5. After deducting issuance fees, the funds will be fully invested in the project of an annual production of 3 million sets of high - strength large - scale magnesium alloy precision - formed parts for automobiles [26]. - Jinlang Zhuan 02 (123259.SZ): The underlying stock is Jinlang Technology (300763.SZ), belonging to the power equipment industry. As of November 7, its market value was 34.114 billion yuan. The company is a high - tech enterprise focusing on the R & D, production, sales, and service of string inverters for photovoltaic power generation systems. The issued convertible bond has a scale of 1.677 billion yuan, a credit rating of AA, and was listed on November 6. After deducting issuance fees, the funds will be invested in multiple projects including distributed photovoltaic power stations, high - voltage high - power grid - connected inverters, medium - and high - power hybrid energy - storage inverters, R & D centers, digital and intelligent upgrading, and working capital replenishment [27]. - As of the announcements on November 7, there are no convertible bonds scheduled for issuance or listing in the coming week (2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14). Last week, the listing committees approved two companies (Jinpankej and Shangtaikeji), the general meetings of shareholders approved two companies (Huatongxianlan and Zhongqigufen), and the board of directors proposed plans for two companies (Haonenggufen and Fengmaogufen). There were no new companies approved for registration or accepted by the exchanges. Currently, there are 98 convertible bonds waiting to be issued, with a total scale of 146.58 billion yuan, including 5 approved for registration with a total scale of 4.2 billion yuan and 7 approved by the listing committee with a total scale of 6.29 billion yuan [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the large cycle in animal husbandry by 2025, with domestic beef and raw milk markets expected to experience upward momentum [2]. - The pig farming sector is supported by anti-involution measures, which are likely to stabilize long-term prices [2]. - The pet consumption market is identified as a growing sector benefiting from demographic changes [2]. - The feed industry, particularly Haida Group, is expected to benefit from the recovery in aquaculture [2]. - The poultry sector is projected to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from improved domestic demand [2]. Summary by Sections Livestock - Pig prices as of November 7 are 11.91 CNY/kg, down 5% week-on-week; 15kg piglet prices are approximately 314 CNY/head, up 4% week-on-week [1]. - Beef prices are on the rise, with the market price at 66.80 CNY/kg, up 0.85% week-on-week and 22% year-on-year [1][2]. Dairy - The average price of raw milk in major production areas is 3.03 CNY/kg, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.01 CNY/kg and a year-on-year decline of 3.2% [2]. Feed - Domestic soybean prices are at 4012 CNY/ton, up 0.37% week-on-week, while soybean meal prices are at 3072 CNY/ton, up 0.85% week-on-week [2]. Poultry - White chicken prices are 6.95 CNY/kg, down 2% week-on-week, while yellow chicken prices are expected to benefit from improved domestic demand [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Livestock: Youran Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Guangming Meat [3]. - Pig farming: Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and others [3]. - Pet industry: Guibao Pet and Reap Bio [3]. - Feed: Haida Group [3]. - Poultry: Lihua Co., Yisheng Co., and others [3].

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月09日 ETF 周报 上周光伏 ETF 领涨，收益中位数近 9% 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2025 年 11 月 03 日至 2025 年 11 月 07 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度 收益率中位数为 0.43%。宽基 ETF 中，上证 50ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 0.89%， 收益最高。按板块划分，周期 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 2.30%，收益最高。按 主题进行分类，光伏 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 8.71%，收益最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 95.70 亿元，总体规模增加 75.49 亿元。在宽基 ETF 中，上周 A500ETF 净申购最多，为 5.26 亿元；按板块来看，大金融 ETF 净申购最多，为 55.61 亿元；按热点主题来看，证券 ETF 净申购最多，为 43.11 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来看，消费、 大金融 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒、光伏 ETF 的 估值分位数相对较低。 021-60933159 ...