Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's retail performance showed a low single-digit decline in sales for the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2025, with offline channels experiencing a mid-single-digit decline and e-commerce remaining flat. The total number of sales points in China was 6,091, a net decrease of 41 from the previous quarter [2][3] - The fourth quarter saw a narrowing decline in sales compared to the third quarter, primarily due to a reduction in the decline of offline channels. The inventory turnover ratio improved to 4-5 months, and new product launches were frequent, including the opening of flagship stores and outdoor stores [2][3][5] - The company is expected to benefit from effective cost control and government subsidies, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with projected net profits of 26.2 billion, 28.0 billion, and 32.9 billion yuan respectively [2][11] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - For the fourth quarter, the company's sales point performance (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded a low single-digit decline year-on-year. The offline channel saw a mid-single-digit decline, while e-commerce remained stable. The total number of sales points decreased by 41 from the previous quarter [2][3] Sales and Discounts - The fourth quarter saw a low single-digit decline in sales, which improved compared to the third quarter. Retail and wholesale channels experienced low and mid-single-digit declines respectively, while e-commerce remained flat. The discount levels deepened slightly, with inventory turnover improving to 4-5 months [4][5] New Products and Store Formats - The company launched a series of new products in the fourth quarter, including innovative running shoes designed for wet weather. Additionally, the company opened its first outdoor specialty store and a flagship "Dragon Store" in Beijing, targeting the middle-class consumer segment [5][11] Financial Forecasts - The company revised its profit forecasts upward, expecting net profits of 26.2 billion, 28.0 billion, and 32.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -13.1%, +7.0%, and +17.3% [11][12]

| 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-01-15 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4112.60 | 14306.72 | 4751.42 | 15440.35 | 4193.07 | 1493.94 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.32 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.12 | -0.39 | -0.46 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 11759.15 | 17295.81 | 6740.58 | 5966.58 | 8412.62 | 958.46 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ ($\frac{\pi}{10}$) 宏观与策略 宏观快评:12 月金融数据解读-企业融资超季节性回暖 策略专题:26 年 A 股向上的五大微观动能——2026 年牛市展望系列 2 行业与公司 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月 ...

核心观点 锚定经济结构性矛盾，精准落地结构性货币政策工具。此次结构性货币政策利率调整，既是对中央经济工 作会议精神的快速响应，也是破解我国当前经济结构性矛盾的关键抓手。结构性货币政策多年来持续加码， 以抵押补充贷款（PSL）利率调整为例，自 2022 年以来其利率已累计调降过 3 次，从最初的 2.80%逐步降 至 2025 年 5 月的 2.00%，此次再次调降至 1.75%。这一持续调降的背后，是政策对重点领域支持的连贯性， 以增强市场预期稳定性。这既畅通了货币政策传导机制，缓解了重点领域与薄弱环节的融资压力，又从根 本上防范总量宽松可能带来的风险积累，充分彰显结构性货币政策在平衡稳增长与调结构中的核心作用。 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月15日 银行业点评 精准滴灌，稳定银行息差预期 |  行业研究·行业快评 | | |  银行 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田维韦 | 021-60875161 | tianweiwei@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520030002 | | ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月16日 2026年01月15日 继续聚焦风险化解 金融监管总局 2026 年监管工作会议学习体会 |  行业研究·行业快评 | | |  银行 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 陈俊良 | 021-60933163 | chenjunliang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980519010001 | | 证券分析师： | 王剑 | 021-60875165 | wangjian@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980518070002 | 事项： 金融监管总局召开 2026 年监管工作会议，系统总结 2025 年工作，统筹安排 2026 年重点任务。与 2025 年 工作要求相比，今年整体要求变化不大，仍然是推进中小金融机构风险化解、严密防范化解房地产和融资 平台等领域风险、提高行业高质量发展能力、加强和完善金融监管、提升金融服务经济社会质效，其中风 险化解仍然占据首要位置。 评论： 金融监管总局召开 2026 年监管工作会议，工作要求较 2025 ...

- The quantitative model "Bank of China Quantitative Stock Selection" achieved an excess return of 3.18% relative to the Wind Partial Equity Hybrid Fund Index in 2025, with a relative maximum drawdown of only 4.13%, an annualized tracking error of 5.44%, an IR of 0.49, and a return-drawdown ratio of 0.77[2][23][24] - The model demonstrated strong risk management capabilities, with a rolling 3-month annualized tracking error averaging only 5.26% in 2025, and a daily return correlation coefficient with the benchmark index averaging 0.96, indicating stable operations targeting the median of active equity funds[25][26][27] - The model ranked in the top 50% of all active equity funds for most of 2025 in terms of cumulative returns, showcasing its ability to consistently generate stable excess returns[27][29][31] - The return-drawdown ratio of the model ranked in the top 30% of the market (1072/3588), and its relative maximum drawdown ranked in the top 0.5% of all active equity funds (21/3588), reflecting strong drawdown control capabilities[29][30][31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][24]. Core Viewpoints - The company announced its intention to acquire 67.48% of Zhejiang Jiali Industrial Co., Ltd. for a total transaction price of 1.454 billion yuan, which will make the company the controlling shareholder of Jiali [3]. - The acquisition focuses on the automotive lighting sector, which is expected to enhance the company's strategic positioning and competitiveness in this growing market [3][24]. - The automotive lighting sector is projected to have good growth potential and opportunities for domestic substitution, with the company expected to benefit from synergies in technology, product development, supply chain, and customer resources [3][24]. - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted downwards due to tariff and exchange rate impacts, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 being 290 million, 340 million, and 380 million yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -17%, +18%, and +12% [3][24]. Company Overview - The company is a leading player in general lighting exports in China, with advantages in efficient flexible production, supply chain management, and quality control [3]. - Jiali, the target of the acquisition, is a well-established automotive lighting manufacturer with a diverse customer base, including both domestic and international automotive brands [5]. - Jiali's revenue is primarily derived from automotive lighting, with a stable revenue scale but some pressure on profitability. In 2024, Jiali's revenue is expected to be 2.68 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year [6]. Industry Insights - The automotive lighting industry in China is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to reach approximately 65.12 billion yuan by 2025 and 88.22 billion yuan by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6.3% from 2025 to 2030 [17]. - The industry is characterized by high entry barriers, including customer resources, technology, and quality certification, making it a relatively high-quality segment within automotive components [17]. - Technological advancements in the industry, such as ADB and DLP systems, are enhancing user experience and increasing product value, which may benefit domestic manufacturers with strong technical capabilities [18].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

- The quantitative model "Bank of China Quantitative Stock Selection" achieved an excess return of 3.18% relative to the Wind Partial Equity Hybrid Fund Index in 2025, with a relative maximum drawdown of only 4.13%, an annualized tracking error of 5.44%, an IR of 0.49, a return-drawdown ratio of 0.77, and a quarterly win rate of 75%[2][23][24] - The model demonstrated strong risk management capabilities, with an average annualized tracking error of only 5.26% over a rolling 3-month period in 2025, and a daily return correlation coefficient with the benchmark index averaging 0.96, indicating stable operations targeting the median level of active equity funds[25][26][27] - The model's return-drawdown ratio ranked in the top 30% of the market (1072/3588) among all active equity funds in 2025, and its relative maximum drawdown ranked in the top 0.5% (21/3588), showcasing strong drawdown control capabilities[29][30][31]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月15日 12 月金融数据解读 企业融资超季节性回暖 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | 事项： 12 月我国新增社融 2.21 万亿元（预期 1.82 万亿元），新增人民币贷款 9100 亿元（预期 6794 亿元），M2 同比增长 8.5%（预期 7.9%）。 评论： 图1：金融数据分项一览 资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理 结论：12 月金融数据呈现总量保持稳健、结构分化加剧的特征。社融增长基本符合季节性，主要受去年 高基数影响，同比增速略有回落。居民贷款延续同比少增，连续六个月走弱，反映内需动能依然不足。企 业贷款则表现强劲，总量同比多增，结构进一步改善：票据占比下降、中长期占比上升，表明企业融资需 求持续恢复 ...

Core Conclusions - The report identifies five micro-drivers for the upward trend of A-shares in 2026: 1) Long-term logic and short-term breakthroughs resonate, accelerating the growth of new productive forces 2) Capital market reforms are advancing deeply under the new "National Nine Articles" 3) Policies for stable growth and anti-involution are working together to improve profitability 4) The trend of residents' risk appetite continues to warm, accelerating the influx of funds into the market 5) The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle continues, and the AI industry trend remains strong, supporting the risk appetite for A-shares [1][2][3][4] Group 1: New Productive Forces - The current macro background indicates that China is in a period of transition from old to new driving forces, with technological innovation leading the development of new productive forces, which is key to upgrading the industrial structure [1][12] - The concept of "new productive forces" was first proposed by President Xi in September 2023, emphasizing high-level technological self-reliance and innovation as a core strategy for industrial policy [12][14] - By 2026, new productive forces are expected to continue driving industrial transformation and upgrading, supported by policies, capital, and talent focusing on technological innovation [1][14] Group 2: Capital Market Reforms - The new "National Nine Articles" released in April 2024 focuses on establishing a sound regulatory system, cultivating long-term funds, and promoting financial services for the real economy, which will reshape the foundational systems and regulatory logic of the capital market [2][21] - The report anticipates that investment and financing reforms will deepen, enhancing the quality of listed companies and stabilizing investor confidence and expectations, thereby supporting a steady bull market for A-shares [2][22] - Policies will continue to strengthen delisting and dividend guidance, balancing financing needs with investor protection, and enhancing investor satisfaction [2][23] Group 3: Profit Improvement - The core driving force of the A-share market is expected to shift from valuation increases driven by confidence recovery and leveraged funds in 2025 to improvements in corporate profitability [3][30] - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently in the second phase of a bull market, with corporate profitability beginning to improve, supported by macro policies promoting mild recovery on the supply side [3][30] - It is projected that the overall net profit growth for A-shares in 2026 could reach 10%, as improvements in profitability gradually spread across various industries [3][30] Group 4: Influx of Resident Funds - Since 2025, the financing balance of A-shares has significantly increased, but signs of resident funds entering the market have not been prominent [3][35] - The report notes that there is a substantial amount of excess savings among residents, with a potential influx of over 50 trillion yuan into the market as risk appetite continues to warm [3][37] - The current asset allocation of residents shows a low allocation to equities, indicating significant room for growth in equity investments in the future [3][37] Group 5: Support for Market Risk Appetite - The report highlights that the current market sentiment is not overly heated, with the number of new accounts and the market's profit-making effect not yet reaching their peak [3][46] - The continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and the ongoing upward trend in the AI industry are expected to support the risk appetite for A-shares [3][47] - The report suggests that the historical average duration of bull markets in A-shares is around 26 months, indicating that there is still considerable room for growth in the current bull market [3][46]