Group 1 - The report identifies a U-shaped evolution of ROE growth for companies in the A-share market post-IPO, with an average turning point occurring around 9.32 years after listing [1][16][22] - A systematic "three-step" screening framework is proposed to identify industries and stocks with long-term investment value, extracting a sample pool of approximately 23% from over 5000 A-shares [1][3][17] - The individual stock dimension is crucial for accurately identifying the real phase of the cycle, as industries like banking and real estate show strong clustering effects, while sectors like power equipment and pharmaceuticals require individual stock analysis for precise judgment [1][3][17] Group 2 - The first step of empirical research involves using a quadratic function to identify stocks with significant U-shaped characteristics, resulting in 1273 stocks (about 23%) being classified into potential stocks (241) and performance stocks (1032) based on their lifecycle phases [2][18][19] - In the first phase (pressure period), industries such as media, utilities, and pharmaceuticals exhibit strong defensive resilience, while in the second phase (recovery period), sectors like power equipment, electronics, and home appliances show high elasticity in ROE recovery [3][34][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of micro-level selection within industries to identify stocks that outperform their industry benchmarks, ensuring selected stocks possess both industry support and superior alpha attributes [3][17][33] Group 3 - Case studies reveal that leading stocks in the first phase include media, utilities, and pharmaceuticals, while in the second phase, power equipment, electronics, and machinery dominate in terms of upward elasticity [4][36] - The banking sector demonstrates strong value blue-chip characteristics, with 40% of its stocks in the second phase, indicating high certainty in profit recovery and operational stability [27][41] - The food and beverage industry shows significant differentiation, with white liquor stocks like Guizhou Moutai in the first phase, while mass consumer goods have entered the second phase, indicating a recovery in operational efficiency [36][39]

Core Insights - The report recommends key stocks across various industries for January 2026, highlighting potential investment opportunities based on market trends and company performance [2][3]. Industry Summaries Construction - Shenghui Integration (603163.SH) is a Taiwanese cleanroom engineering service provider and a core supplier for Google's TPU supply chain, poised to benefit from TSMC's expansion in the U.S. with potential orders from TSMC Arizona and multiple North American data centers [2]. Social Services - China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) is expected to benefit from a new cycle in domestic duty-free sales, with a boost from the upcoming consumption peak during the New Year and Spring Festival, leading to improved performance expectations [2]. Electronics - Lante Optics (688127.SH) is experiencing significant growth in its optical prism product line and is collaborating with multiple waveguide manufacturers for AR glasses, indicating strong profit elasticity and expansion potential [2]. Utilities and Environmental Protection - China General Nuclear Power (003816.SZ) is set to benefit from the normalization of nuclear power approvals and improvements in market pricing mechanisms, with expected production increases in Guangdong province [2]. Nonferrous Metals - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) is a leading player in the nonferrous sector, with high profit contributions from gold and copper, and is entering a rapid growth phase in lithium production, making it a highly valued investment opportunity for 2026 [2]. Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - Youran Dairy (9858.HK), a global leader in dairy farming, is expected to benefit from rising milk prices and beef price increases, leading to significant performance recovery [2]. Internet - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) is well-positioned for the AI era, leveraging its ecosystem advantages, with potential growth from e-commerce and AI agent capabilities not yet reflected in current profit forecasts [2]. Pharmaceuticals - WuXi AppTec (603259.SH) is supported by strong performance, order growth, and capital expenditure, with favorable regulatory changes expected to enhance the valuation of the CXO sector [2]. Light Industry - Sun Paper (002078.SZ) is entering a new capacity release phase with significant production increases expected, making it a compelling investment with reasonable valuation metrics [2]. Textiles and Apparel - Anta Sports (2020.HK) is anticipated to benefit from the performance of its premium sports brands, with a favorable valuation and upcoming catalysts from Q4 operational disclosures and the Spring Festival consumption peak [2].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 2025年12月30日 固收+系列报告之九 公募 REITs2026 年投资展望：攻守之道与价值掘金 市场复盘：自首批公募 REITs 2021 年上市以来，我国公募 REITs 一级认购 倍数呈现显著波动走势，整体波动由产品供给稀缺性、市场情绪及资产类型 收益预期共同驱动。二级市场收益表现介于沪深 300 与中证全债之间，与中 证转债的股债混合属性形成互补，不同年份收益位次因底层资产、利率、政 策及市场环境差异而显著分化。从长期特征看，REITs 波动率低于沪深 300 和中证转债，高于中证全债，且与其他资产收益相关度低，兼具债性稳定与 股性弹性，适合平衡组合波动。 机构配置：当前公募 REITs 流通盘的持有主体高度集中，机构投资者主导， 券商自营是绝对主力，占比达 51.3%；其次是保险资金（19.9%）和产业资本 （13.6%），以上三类机构投资者合计占比超 84%；私募基金（5.5%）、信托 （3.6%）、其他资管（3.7%）等占比相对较低，个人投资者、公募基金、券 商资管、银行理财的持有比例均不足 1%。不同类型公募 REITs 的流通盘持有 人结构呈现显 ...

| 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-29 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3965.27 | 13537.09 | 4639.37 | 14549.37 | 3920.98 | 1346.31 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.04 | -0.49 | -0.38 | -0.16 | -0.34 | 0.03 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 9038.19 | 12355.17 | 4826.13 | 4629.60 | 5379.66 | 584.88 | $$\overline{{{\prod_{i\in\mathbb{R}}}}}\frac{\Delta}{\Delta}\pm\overline{{{\prod_{i\in\mathbb{R}}}}}$$ (1998) (200) 宏观与策略 固 定 收 益 快 评 : 可 交 换 私 募 债 跟 踪 - 私 募 EB 每 周 跟 踪 （2025122 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints - China's public REITs have shifted from pilot projects to normal development, with a steady expansion in issuance scale and continuous enrichment of asset types in recent years. In 2025, the issuance scale declined slightly, but new "first - order" projects broadened the REITs asset landscape [13]. - Since 2021, the subscription multiples of China's public REITs have shown significant fluctuations, driven by product scarcity, market sentiment, and expected returns of asset types. The secondary - market performance of REITs is between the CSI 300 and the CSI Aggregate Bond Index, with low correlation to other assets, suitable for balancing portfolio volatility [19][27]. - The holders of the current public REITs' floating shares are highly concentrated, dominated by institutional investors. Brokerage proprietary trading is the main force, followed by insurance funds and industrial capital. Different types of REITs show significant sectoral differentiation in their holder structures [2][28]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Review: From Valuation Fluctuation to Value Return Market Characteristics and Driving Factors - The issuance scale of public REITs in 2025 decreased compared to the previous high, but new asset types emerged. The subscription multiples fluctuated significantly from 2021 - 2025, and the secondary - market performance of REITs can be divided into six stages, with different reasons for each stage's performance [13][19][21]. - As of December 19, 2025, the CSI REITs Total Return Index had a year - to - date increase of +3.2%, significantly underperforming the CSI 300 and the CSI Convertible Bond Index, only better than the CSI Aggregate Bond Index. The main reasons include the shift of funds, the narrowing of the primary - secondary market spread, and the weak fundamentals of underlying assets [22]. Institutional Allocation Preference Differences - Brokerage proprietary trading, insurance funds, and industrial capital are the main holders of public REITs' floating shares, accounting for over 84%. Brokerage proprietary trading prefers assets with high liquidity and valuation elasticity, while insurance funds focus on assets with stable long - term cash flows. Individual and mutual fund investors' participation is limited [2][28][30]. - The number of REITs products allocated by public fund FOFs has been increasing, but the growth rate has slowed down. From the first to the third quarter of 2025, the allocation strategy of FOFs changed from diversified layout to concentrated addition of high - attention products [31][36]. Fundamental Analysis: Differentiated Performance of Asset Types - **Industrial Parks**: In 2025, the rental rate and rent level of industrial park REITs showed the characteristics of "intensified differentiation and supply - demand game". High - quality science and technology parks and core - location assets showed resilience, while some traditional industrial parks faced pressure [42]. - **Warehousing and Logistics**: In 2025, the operating income of warehousing and logistics REITs mostly showed a fluctuating downward trend. The rental rate was differentiated, with core assets showing strong anti - risk ability, and the rent level generally declined [46]. - **Consumption**: In 2025, consumption REITs showed significant differentiation. The rental rate remained stable at a high level, while the rent level was differentiated. Core - area and high - quality - operation commercial assets had strong anti - risk ability [51]. - **Affordable Housing**: The affordable housing REIT market showed strong operational resilience, with most REITs maintaining a high rental rate and stable rent level, indicating strong anti - risk ability of the housing sector [54]. - **Transportation**: The core driving logic of the transportation sector is the recovery of travel demand and the improvement of asset operation efficiency. The traffic volume and toll revenue showed significant differentiation among different REITs [57]. - **Ecological and Environmental Protection**: The two listed ecological and environmental protection REITs showed good performance in the third quarter of 2025, with an increase in waste treatment volume and sewage treatment volume [61]. - **Energy**: In 2025, except for Huaxia TBEA New Energy REIT, the revenue of other energy REITs declined significantly. The photovoltaic field performed well, while the wind power field was generally sluggish [63]. - **Municipal Utilities**: The heating area and charging area of Guotai Haitong Jinan Energy Heating REIT remained basically stable in 2025, but the heat - stop rate and charging rate decreased significantly in the third quarter [67]. - **Water Conservancy**: The operating income of YinHua Shaoxing Raw Water Water Conservancy REIT increased significantly in the third quarter of 2025, mainly due to the increase in the supply of raw water [69]. - **New Infrastructure**: The two new infrastructure REITs disclosed their operating income for the first time in the third quarter of 2025, and their trusteeship service fee collection rates were 100%, laying a good foundation for subsequent operations [71]. Investment Recommendations: Structural Opportunities under Policy Dividends and Asset Differentiation Primary Market: Select Projects in a Differentiated Market - Since this year, the enthusiasm for new REIT subscriptions has declined, and some REITs have broken their issue prices after listing. The return on new subscriptions has decreased due to the weak secondary - market performance and the narrowing of the primary - secondary market spread. Different asset types have shown differentiated performance, and it is recommended to focus on high - quality projects and be cautious about long - term strategic allocations [3][75]. Secondary Market: A Dumbbell Strategy for Offense and Defense - In asset allocation, public REITs can meet the investment needs of "idle funds + long - term holding". Appropriate allocation of REITs in the investment portfolio can improve the Sharpe ratio, but the allocation ratio should be moderate [77][78]. - In the future, there will be short - term local unlocking disturbances, with a peak in the first half of 2026. It is recommended to follow the "policy dividend + high - quality assets" principle, adopt a dumbbell strategy. On one hand, explore the stable dividend value of affordable housing and municipal environmental protection assets; on the other hand, lay out new infrastructure sectors such as data centers and clean energy. Also, seize the incremental opportunities brought by expansion [3][82].

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The report highlights the significance of researching next-generation innovative drugs for resistant hypertension, with multiple new mechanism antihypertensive drugs expected to report data or achieve clinical progress in 2025 [10][11] - Key catalysts include upcoming Phase 3 clinical studies focusing on cardiovascular and renal endpoints, which are anticipated to yield data in the coming years [11] - The report suggests monitoring domestic companies involved in relevant target areas as potential investment opportunities [12] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.46% this week, with A-share food and beverage stocks underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 2.52 percentage points [13] - The report indicates a differentiation in the performance of various categories, with beverages outperforming food and alcoholic beverages [13] - Recommendations include focusing on high-quality companies in the liquor sector, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Moutai, as well as leading beer companies like Yanjing Beer, which are expected to benefit from demand recovery [14] Group 3: Chemical Industry - Rongsheng Petrochemical - Rongsheng Petrochemical is identified as a leading private refining company in China, with significant production capacities across various chemical products, including PX and PTA [15] - The report anticipates a recovery in refining profits and an increase in sulfur prices, which will contribute positively to the company's earnings [17] - Profit forecasts for Rongsheng Petrochemical indicate a substantial increase in net profit from 13.8 billion yuan in 2025 to 25.7 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 90.9% and 13.1% respectively [18] Group 4: Optical Communication - LightSpeed Technology - LightSpeed Technology is positioned as a leading player in the optical communication sector, benefiting from the growing demand for AI computing infrastructure [19][20] - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a 35.42% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 2025 [19] - The report projects revenue growth from 116.81 billion yuan in 2025 to 169.93 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise significantly [21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage sector is "Outperform the Market" [4][5][10]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, with four main investment themes: cost advantages, efficiency improvements, innovation-driven growth, and opportunities for recovery from difficulties [3][10]. - The report highlights a differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with beverages outperforming food and alcoholic beverages [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - The food and beverage sector (A-shares and H-shares) experienced a cumulative decline of 0.46% this week, with A-shares down 0.57%, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 2.52 percentage points [1]. - The top gainers in the food and beverage sector this week included Anji Food (29.65%), Richen Co. (9.00%), and Ximai Food (8.54%) [1]. Alcoholic Beverages - The demand for liquor remains weak, with premium liquor companies focusing on supply-side optimization. The report recommends companies like Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Guizhou Moutai for their growth potential [2][10]. - The report notes that the white liquor sector is in a left-side layout phase, with positive signals expected from both supply and demand sides [10]. Beer - The beer industry is in a healthy inventory position, awaiting demand recovery. The report suggests actively investing in the beer sector, particularly in leading brands like Yanjing Beer [2][11]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is experiencing a steady recovery in demand, with supply gradually clearing. The report recommends focusing on leading dairy companies like Yili for their valuation safety margins [2][13]. Snacks - The report emphasizes selecting strong alpha stocks in the snack sector, particularly those benefiting from the growth of konjac snacks, with leading companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi showing strong competitive advantages [2][11]. Investment Recommendations - The recommended investment portfolio includes Baba Foods, Dongpeng Beverage, Weilong, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with an average decline of 0.27% this week, underperforming the food and beverage sector by 2.21 percentage points [15].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 金融工程专题研究 与机器人共舞——华夏中证机器人 ETF 投资价值分析 机器人：制造业皇冠顶端的明珠 2025 年以来，机器人板块在人工智能行情催化下显著走强，成为市场重要 主线之一。1—3 月期间，人形机器人指数、宇树机器人指数最大涨幅分别 达到 52.20%和 70.19%，年内两者累计涨幅分别为 38.97%和 45.60%，明 显跑赢同期沪深 300 指数。 国家战略持续加码，为机器人产业中长期发展提供强劲动能。从"十四五"机 器人产业发展规划到人形机器人专项指导意见，再到 2025 年政府工作报告 与"十五五"规划建议，政策体系不断完善。 产业链量产提速，机器人行业收入端保持较快增长态势。工业机器人与服务 机器人产量持续刷新历史纪录，中证机器人指数成分股中约 2/3 企业实现营 收同比增长，28 只成分股单季度营收同比增速超过 20%。 中证机器人指数（H30590.CSI）投资价值分析 中证机器人指数（H30590.CSI）以机器人产业链核心上市公司为样本，集 中反映机器人主题整体表现。指数发布于 2015 年 2 月，截至 2025 年 12 月 19 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 金融工程专题研究 与机器人共舞——华夏中证机器人 ETF 投资价值分析 机器人：制造业皇冠顶端的明珠 2025 年以来，机器人板块在人工智能行情催化下显著走强，成为市场重要 主线之一。1—3 月期间，人形机器人指数、宇树机器人指数最大涨幅分别 达到 52.20%和 70.19%，年内两者累计涨幅分别为 38.97%和 45.60%，明 显跑赢同期沪深 300 指数。 国家战略持续加码，为机器人产业中长期发展提供强劲动能。从"十四五"机 器人产业发展规划到人形机器人专项指导意见，再到 2025 年政府工作报告 与"十五五"规划建议，政策体系不断完善。 产业链量产提速，机器人行业收入端保持较快增长态势。工业机器人与服务 机器人产量持续刷新历史纪录，中证机器人指数成分股中约 2/3 企业实现营 收同比增长，28 只成分股单季度营收同比增速超过 20%。 中证机器人指数（H30590.CSI）投资价值分析 中证机器人指数（H30590.CSI）以机器人产业链核心上市公司为样本，集 中反映机器人主题整体表现。指数发布于 2015 年 2 月，截至 2025 年 12 月 19 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The company, Guangxun Technology, is a leading domestic optical communication enterprise with a vertical integration capability from chip to subsystem, benefiting from the growth of AI computing power in China [1][14] - The demand for high-speed optical modules is surging due to the increasing investment in AI infrastructure by global cloud service providers (CSPs) [2] - The company has a strong market position in the domestic market and is actively expanding into overseas markets, with a significant increase in net profit and revenue expected in the coming years [3][4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guangxun Technology has over 50 years of experience in the optical communication field, achieving vertical integration of optical devices through both organic growth and acquisitions [14][15] - The company has a diverse product line that includes optical transceivers, active optical cables, optical amplifiers, and subsystems, widely used in backbone networks, metropolitan networks, access networks, and data centers [19][24] Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 347 million yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 56.00%, marking a historical high [1] - Revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 116.81 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 10.60 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [3][4] Market Trends - The global AI computing power market is experiencing high demand, with CSPs expected to increase their capital expenditures significantly, which will drive the demand for optical modules [2][49] - The "East Data West Computing" initiative and the development of intelligent computing centers are expected to further boost the demand for transmission networks [2] Technology and Innovation - The company has developed its own optical chips and is expanding production capacity, with plans to raise 3.5 billion yuan for the development of high-speed optical transmission products [3][26] - Guangxun Technology is actively investing in new technologies such as CPO/OCS to lead the upgrade of optical interconnection technology [3][24] Competitive Position - The company ranks fourth globally in the optical device industry and has a leading market share in transmission networks, access networks, and data communication [1][2] - Guangxun Technology's products are increasingly being adopted in both domestic and international markets, with overseas revenue accounting for approximately 25% as of mid-2025 [26][29]