证券研究报告 | 2025年12月19日 万华化学（600309.SH） MDI 产品景气回暖，锂电材料、新材料加速放量 |  公司研究·公司快评 | |  | 基础化工·化学制品 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 证券分析师： | 薛聪 | 010-88005107 | xuecong@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120001 | 事项： 事件：11 月下旬以来，全球主要聚氨酯企业相继上调 MDI 和 TDI 产品价格，覆盖多个区域市场。公司 12 月初以来分别上调拉丁美洲、中东、非洲、土耳其、东南亚、南亚地区 MDI 或 TDI 价格 200-300 美元/吨， 匈牙利 BC 也宣布对所有 MDI 产品涨价 300 欧元/吨。 国信化工观点： 1）受海外、国内多装置减产影响，MDI 价格上行：截至 12 月 15 日，聚合 MDI 市场价格上涨至 ...

2025年12月18日 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月19日 资金观察，货币瞭望 跨年资金需求季节性抬升，预计12月市场利率上行 固定收益 · 专题研究 2025年第十二期 | 证券分析师：陈笑楠 | 证券分析师：季家辉 | 证券分析师：李智能 | 证券分析师：赵婧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 021-60375421 | 021-61761056 | 0755-22940456 | 0755-22940745 | | chenxiaonan@guosen.com.cn | jijiahui@guosen.com.cn | lizn@guosen.com.cn | zhaojing@guosen.com.cn | | S0980524080001 | S0980522010002 | S0980516060001 | S0980513080004 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 Ø海外货币市场指标跟踪：美联储降息25BP符合预期，美债短期利率下行； 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø国内货币市场指标跟踪——价：11月银行间和交易所回购利 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月19日 宏观与策略 宏观快评:2025 年 11 月财政数据快评-财政力度继续下滑 行业与公司 电新行业投资策略:风电行业 2026 年度投资策略-国内外有望迎来景气 共振，需求与格局变化催生新机遇 华住集团-S(01179.HK) 海外公司深度报告:本土酒店领军者的价值重构 进行时 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-18 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3876.37 | 13053.97 | 4552.79 | 13909.53 | 3778.05 | 1305.96 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.15 | -1.28 | -0.59 | -0.53 | -1.15 | -1.46 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7048.95 | 9505.87 | 3821.02 | 3314.68 | 4443.95 | 387.18 | 晨会主题 【常规内容】 腾讯控股( ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月18日 一般公共预算收入由正转负，支出降幅收窄。11 月财政收入当月同比-0.02%，前值 3.2%，由正转负。税 收收入 2.8%，较前值下行；非税收入-10.8%，降幅在高基数下显著收窄，可能是地方加大盘活资产力度。 2025 年 11 月财政数据快评 财政力度继续下滑 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525110002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 1-11 月，全国一般公共预算收入 200516 亿元，同比增长 0.8%；其中，全国税收收入 164814 亿元，同比 增长 1.8%；非税收入 35702 亿元，同比下降 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月18日 金融工程日报 沪指缩量微涨，商业航天表现强势、医药商业反复活跃 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20251218 规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较好，板块指数中上证综 指表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数表现较好。煤炭、银行、石油石 化、国防军工、商贸零售行业表现较好，电新、通信、电子、综合金融、消 费者服务行业表现较差。SPD、降落伞、PVC 地板、医保支付改革、卫星互联 网等概念表现较好，海南自贸港、锂电电解液、覆铜板、超宽带技术、电路 板等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20251218 收盘时有 71 只股票涨停，有 8 只股票跌停。昨日涨停 股票今日收盘收益为 3.16%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-0.54%。今日封 板率 70%，较前日下降 2%，连板率 36%，较前日提升 14%。 市场资金流向：截至 20251217 两融余额为 25028 亿元，其中融资余额 24859 亿元，融券余额 170 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 10.1%。 折溢价：20251217 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是现金流 ETF ...

Core Insights - The wind power industry is expected to experience a synchronous recovery in both domestic and international markets, driven by changes in demand and industry dynamics, creating new investment opportunities [1] - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the wind power sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment [1] Group 1: Industry Review - Since 2021, China's onshore wind power has entered a parity era, with rapid cost reductions achieved through large-scale and technological advancements, leading to continuous installation exceeding expectations [3] - The competition within the main engine segment has significantly compressed the profitability of the industry chain, resulting in a situation where growth in volume does not equate to growth in profit [3] - The price of the onshore wind industry chain has been recovering since the second half of 2024, with profitability expected to improve in 2025 as shipment volumes increase [3][4] Group 2: Onshore Wind Power Outlook - For 2026, it is anticipated that new onshore installations in China will reach 120 GW, a year-on-year increase of 10%, setting a new historical high [4] - The industry chain prices are expected to have solid support, leading to significant recovery in main engine profits, with component segments showing notable operational leverage [4] - The CAGR for new onshore installations in emerging markets is projected to be 17% from 2024 to 2030, with domestic manufacturers expected to see substantial growth in export profits [4] Group 3: Offshore Wind Power Outlook - The report forecasts that new offshore installations in China will rise to a range of 11-15 GW in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of over 40% [5] - The national offshore wind project development is expected to commence in 2026, with a total of 70-100 GW of new offshore installations projected during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5] - The global offshore wind market is anticipated to see steady growth in orders and construction demand, particularly in Europe, where supply constraints for cables and piles are expected [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key players in the main engine segment such as Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., and Sany Renewable Energy, while component manufacturers like Delijia and Jinlei Co. are also highlighted [6] - In the offshore wind sector, companies such as Dajin Heavy Industry, Haili Wind Power, and Oriental Cable are recommended for investment consideration [6]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月18日 唯特偶（301319.SZ） 优于大市 深耕电子焊接材料，双平台战略打造新增长极 前三季度营收同比增长 24.00%，扣非归母净利润同比增长 3.51%。公司发前 三季度实现营收 10.60 亿元(YoY +24.00%)，实现归母净利润 0.70 亿元(YoY -4.84%)，扣非后归母净利润为 0.62 亿元（YoY +3.51%）。其中，公司单三 季度实现营收 3.96 亿元(YoY +19.67%)，实现归母净利润 0.27 亿元(YoY +15.98%)。前三季度公司确认的非经常性损益为 758.63 万元，主要为政府 补助及金融资产公允价值变动损益等。 综合盈利能力稳健，经营性现金流大幅改善。公司前三季度综合毛利率为 16.26%，归母净利率为 6.56%。归母净利润同比小幅下滑主要系去年同期非 经常性损益基数较高所致，而扣非归母净利润的稳健增长彰显了主营业务的 良好发展态势。公司经营质量显著提升，前三季度经营活动产生的现金流量 净额达 0.82 亿元，同比大幅增长 1578.59%，主要系收入增长的同时公司强 化回款管理所致。费用方面，公司持续加大研发投 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The hotel industry is experiencing a supply-demand flywheel effect, with leading companies in both domestic and international markets achieving significant market capitalizations. The industry is currently at a cyclical adjustment bottom, with expectations for supply-demand rebalancing and structural reforms driving growth [1][21] - The company's growth model, which has been effective for over 20 years, emphasizes a "product-traffic-return-scale" cycle, showcasing strong product offerings, substantial membership growth, and efficient cost management [2][3] - The long-term outlook includes a three-phase value reassessment narrative focusing on store expansion, brand upgrades, and model evolution, with projections for significant increases in mid-to-high-end hotel numbers by 2030 [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The hotel industry is currently at a cyclical adjustment bottom, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and leading companies' pricing strategies. The supply side is expected to undergo structural reforms, enhancing growth opportunities [21][24] - The demand side is projected to grow steadily, with leisure travel maintaining resilience and business travel gradually recovering. The overall hotel demand is expected to stabilize as supply expands [24][39] Growth Outlook - The company is expected to expand its store count significantly, with projections of reaching 18,000 economy and mid-range hotels by 2030. Brand upgrades are anticipated to enhance profitability and valuation [3][4] - The company's model is evolving towards a light-asset approach, which is expected to support stable cash flows and shareholder returns exceeding 5% [3][4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 44.4 billion CNY for 2025, increasing to 58.6 billion CNY by 2027, with a corresponding rise in earnings per share [5][4] - The estimated reasonable stock price for the company is projected to be between 43 and 45 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 15-20% from the current price [4][6]

Macro and Strategy - The U.S. non-farm employment data for October and November indicates a lukewarm job market, suggesting that conditions for interest rate cuts are not yet ripe. November saw an increase of 64,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, above the anticipated 4.4% [7]. Industry and Company - Recent regulatory policies on fund management are expected to have a long-term impact on the market, emphasizing a tool-oriented approach and potentially increasing style competition in the short term. The new regulations aim to enhance the quality of public fund management, linking the performance assessment of fund managers and sales personnel to investor interests [7]. - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) is leveraging its overseas cloud and gaming businesses, with AI integration driving new growth engines. The company has expanded its cloud infrastructure globally, covering 22 regions, and is focusing on SaaS and PaaS services, particularly in Asia and the Middle East [8][9]. - Tencent's overseas gaming revenue is projected to reach 75.7 billion RMB in 2025, accounting for 32% of its total gaming revenue, driven by its industrialization capabilities and strategic acquisitions [9]. - Salesforce (CRM.N) reported a revenue of $10.26 billion for Q3 2025, a 9% year-on-year increase, driven by strong performance in its AI-driven products. The company also saw a significant rise in its remaining performance obligations, reaching $29.4 billion, indicating robust future revenue potential [11][12]. Financial Engineering - The market sentiment appears to be stabilizing, with a narrowing of the discount on major contracts. As of December 17, 2025, the annualized discount rates for various index futures are as follows: IH at 0.29%, IF at 3.74%, IC at 4.69%, and IM at 9.94% [14][16]. - The dividend yield for the CSI 300 index stands at 2.11%, with a remaining yield of 0.16%, indicating a focus on dividend-paying stocks in the current market environment [15].

========= - The CSI 500 Index performed well among scale indices, with the CSI 500 Growth Index rising by 2.37%[6] - The ChiNext Index performed well among sector indices, with the ChiNext Index rising by 3.39%[6] - The Communication, Nonferrous Metals, Electronics, Basic Chemicals, and Non-Banking sectors performed well, with returns of 4.92%, 3.15%, 2.58%, 2.36%, and 2.01% respectively[7] - The Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery, National Defense and Military, Coal, Comprehensive, and Real Estate sectors performed poorly, with returns of -0.41%, -0.25%, -0.18%, -0.16%, and 0.02% respectively[7] - The concepts of Optical Module (CPO), Lithium Mine, Lithium Battery Electrolyte, Lithium Hexafluorophosphate, and Optical Communication performed well, with returns of 6.59%, 6.39%, 5.36%, 5.28%, and 5.03% respectively[10] - The concepts of Hainan Free Trade Port, Horse Racing, Cross-Strait Integration, Satellite Internet, and Commercial Space performed poorly, with returns of -3.27%, -2.81%, -2.15%, -2.15%, and -1.86% respectively[10] - The highest number of stocks hitting the daily limit during the day was 59, with 58 stocks hitting the limit at the close[13] - The highest number of stocks hitting the daily limit during the day was 28, with 27 stocks hitting the limit at the close[13] - The closing return of stocks that hit the daily limit yesterday was 0.14%, while the closing return of stocks that hit the daily limit yesterday was -2.37%[14] - The sealing rate today was 72%, an increase of 7% from the previous day, and the continuous sealing rate was 22%, a decrease of 1% from the previous day[17] - The balance of margin financing and securities lending as of December 16, 2025, was 2,504.8 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 2,488.1 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 16.7 billion yuan[19] - The balance of margin financing and securities lending accounted for 2.7% of the market's circulating market value, and the margin financing and securities lending transactions accounted for 10.2% of the market's transaction value[22] - The large-cap growth ETF had the highest premium on December 16, 2025, with a premium of 1.15%, while the innovative drug ETF Guotai had the highest discount, with a discount of 0.70%[23] - The average daily transaction amount of block trades in the past six months reached 2.1 billion yuan, and the transaction amount on December 16, 2025, was 1.6 billion yuan[26] - The average discount rate of block trades in the past six months was 6.63%, and the discount rate on December 16, 2025, was 4.62%[26] - The annualized discount rate of the main contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures in the past year were 0.89%, 3.73%, 11.22%, and 13.67% respectively[28] - The annualized discount rate of the main contract of the SSE 50 stock index futures on December 17, 2025, was 18.71%, at the 2% percentile in the past year[28] - The annualized discount rate of the main contract of the CSI 300 stock index futures on December 17, 2025, was 4.57%, at the 41% percentile in the past year[28] - The annualized premium rate of the main contract of the CSI 500 stock index futures on December 17, 2025, was 15.70%, at the 100% percentile in the past year[28] - The annualized premium rate of the main contract of the CSI 1000 stock index futures on December 17, 2025, was 10.74%, at the 100% percentile in the past year[28] - The stocks with the most institutional research in the past week were Changan Automobile, Yipin Red, Boke Shares, Fuchuang Precision, Boying Special Welding, Zhishang Technology, Ruide Intelligent, and Kaizhong Shares, with Changan Automobile being researched by 214 institutions[30] - The top ten stocks with net inflows from institutional special seats on December 17, 2025, were Juguang Technology, Shenzhen Southern Circuit, Hualing Cable, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Shunhao Shares, Kaipu Cloud, Western Materials, Tongyu Communications, Liante Technology, and Gu'ao Technology[36] - The top ten stocks with net outflows from institutional special seats on December 17, 2025, were Yingwei Ke, Snowman Group, Guangxun Technology, Zhongchao Holdings, Biological Shares, Tianji Shares, Sun Cable, Sanyang Horse, Eurasia Group, and Qujiang Cultural Tourism[36] - The top ten stocks with net inflows from Northbound Trading on December 17, 2025, were Shenzhen Southern Circuit, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Aerospace Electromechanical, Guangxun Technology, Hualing Cable, Chaoxun Communications, Chinese Health, and Tongyu Communications[37] - The top ten stocks with net outflows from Northbound Trading on December 17, 2025, were Snowman Group, Biological Shares, Juguang Technology, Yidong Electronics, Aerospace Changfeng, Yingwei Ke, Liante Technology, and Western Materials[37] =========