Group 1: Banking Industry Outlook - The banking industry is expected to see M2 growth target around 7.5%, with credit growth at approximately 6.0% and social financing growth at about 8.0% for 2026, aligning with economic growth expectations [6][7] - The total M2 increment for 2026 is estimated to be around 25.4 trillion yuan, with fiscal net injection contributing approximately 12.0 trillion yuan and bank credit contributing about 16.8 trillion yuan [6] - The six major banks are projected to have a total of 57 trillion yuan in maturing time deposits in 2026, with a significant portion expected to flow from large banks to smaller banks [8] Group 2: Credit Allocation and Trends - Corporate lending is expected to contribute approximately 80%-85% of new loans, while retail lending is anticipated to show marginal improvement, contributing about 10%-15% [7] - The phenomenon of deposit migration from large banks to smaller banks is a key factor affecting the asset-liability gap in 2026, with large banks continuing to play a dominant role in credit and government bond allocations [7][8] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality stocks such as Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, while also considering stable high-dividend stocks like China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China for investment opportunities in 2026 [8] Group 4: Wealth Management and Financial Products - The wealth management industry is experiencing a slight contraction but has reached a historical high with a total scale of around 31.6 trillion yuan by the end of December 2025, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [9][10] - The transition to net value-based products in the banking sector is pushing wealth management companies to innovate, focusing on stabilizing net values and exploring new product designs such as dividend-type products [10][11] Group 5: Social Services Industry Insights - The domestic travel market showed a positive trend during the New Year holiday, with an estimated 142 million domestic trips taken, reflecting a 5.2% increase compared to 2024 [15][16] - Investment recommendations for 2026 emphasize the potential for service consumption growth, particularly in high-end recovery and the new cycle of duty-free shopping, as well as the restaurant sector [15][16] Group 6: AI and 3D Printing Industry Developments - The global consumer-grade 3D printing market is projected to grow from 4.1 billion USD in 2024 to 16.9 billion USD by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 33% [17][18] - Domestic companies are leading the consumer-grade 3D printing market, with significant market shares held by firms like Tuo Zhu Technology and Chuangxiang Sanwei [17][18] Group 7: AI Application and Market Growth - The AI market in China is expected to grow from 93.7 billion yuan in 2022 to 160.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 31% [23] - The leading AI company, Zhiyuan, has seen rapid revenue growth, with a 35.03% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025, despite facing short-term profit pressures [20][21]

- The report introduces the dividend point estimation method for stock indices, emphasizing its importance in accurately calculating the premium or discount levels of stock index futures contracts, which track price indices rather than total return indices[43][12][44] - The dividend point estimation process involves key metrics such as component stock weights, dividend amounts, total market capitalization, and index closing prices. While some data like market capitalization and closing prices are directly accessible, component stock weights and dividend amounts require further estimation[48][43][44] - Component stock weights are refined from monthly data provided by mainstream data providers to daily weights using a formula that adjusts for non-reinvested price changes. The formula is: $$W_{n,t}={\frac{w_{i0}\times(1+r_{n})}{\sum_{i=1}^{N}w_{i0}\times(1+r_{n})}}$$ where \(w_{i0}\) represents the weight of stock \(n\) at the last disclosed date, and \(r_{n}\) is the non-reinvested price change of stock \(n\) during the period[49][50] - Dividend amounts are estimated using the formula: Dividend Amount = Net Profit × Dividend Payout Ratio Net profit is dynamically predicted based on historical profit distributions, categorizing companies into stable and unstable profit distribution groups. Stable companies follow historical patterns, while unstable ones use prior-year data as a reference[51][53][56] - Dividend payout ratios are predicted using historical averages. If a company paid dividends last year, the previous year's ratio is used; otherwise, a three-year average is applied. Companies with no dividend history are assumed not to pay dividends[54][57][55] - Ex-dividend dates are forecasted using historical intervals and linear extrapolation methods. If historical dates are deemed unreasonable, default dates are applied based on typical dividend announcement timelines[55][60][58] - The accuracy of the dividend point estimation model is validated by comparing predicted dividend points with actual points for major indices like the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The model demonstrates high accuracy, with errors generally within 5 points for SSE 50 and CSI 300, and within 10 points for CSI 500 and CSI 1000[61][65][43] - The report highlights the predictive accuracy of the model for stock index futures contracts, showing minimal deviation between forecasted and actual dividend points for contracts across different indices[65][68][70]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

2026年01月07日 证券研究报告 | 垂类AI应用专题： 领先的独立大模型公司智谱，产品矩阵快速扩张 行业研究 · 行业快评 计算机 · 人工智能 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：熊莉 联系人：侯睿 xiongli1@guosen.com.cn S0980519030002 021-61761067 hourui3@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø 国内领先的AI公司，产品进入快速迭代阶段。北京智谱华章科技股份有限公司成立于2019年，是中国领先的AI公司，致力于追求通用人工智能创新。公司为机构客 户及个人用户提供通用大模型服务，已为逾八千家机构客户、约80百万台设备提供支持。以2024年收入计，公司是中国最大的独立大语言模型厂商及第二大大语言 模型厂商，市占率达6.6%，2022、2023、2024、2025H1公司日均token消耗量分别为5亿、21亿、0.2万亿及4.6万亿。 Ø 公司收入高速增长，净利润短期承压。2025H1公司实现收入1.91亿元，同比增长35.03%。分业务来看，本地化部 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the 3D printing industry [1] Core Insights - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is dominated by domestic manufacturers, with AI facilitating a prosperous ecosystem. The global consumer-grade 3D printer market is expected to reach $4.1 billion in 2024, growing to $16.9 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33% [2][21] - The industrial-grade 3D printing sector requires breakthroughs in core components, with applications gradually moving towards scale. Key components such as high-end lasers, galvanometers, and inkjet nozzles still need to be localized [2][49] - Domestic manufacturers are making continuous breakthroughs across various segments of 3D printing, with companies like Aisike achieving localization in piezoelectric inkjet nozzles and Jin Chengzi leading in laser processing control systems [2][49] Summary by Sections 1. 3D Printing in Consumer and Industrial Markets - 3D printing is flourishing in both consumer and industrial markets, with distinct applications and technologies [12][91] 2. Rapid Development of Consumer Market, AI Enhancing Ecosystem - The consumer-grade market is rapidly growing, driven by AI advancements that lower modeling barriers and enhance user engagement [25][30] 3. Core Component Localization in Industrial 3D Printing, Diverse Applications - The localization of core components in industrial 3D printing is anticipated, with applications expanding across various sectors [2][49] 4. Rapid Development of Domestic Manufacturers, Continuous Breakthroughs - Domestic manufacturers are achieving significant advancements in 3D printing technology, with a focus on various segments and applications [2][49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the banking sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The banking industry is expected to see a reasonable M2 growth target of approximately 7.5%, with credit growth around 6.0% and social financing growth at about 8.0% for 2026. This aligns with the anticipated nominal GDP growth of about 5.0% and actual GDP growth of approximately 4.9% [1][15][21]. - The report highlights that the flow of deposits will be a key factor affecting the asset-liability structure of banks in 2026, with a significant amount of term deposits maturing, estimated at around 57 trillion yuan [3][49]. - The credit allocation is expected to show strong support for corporate lending, contributing approximately 80% to 85% of new loans, while retail lending is projected to improve marginally, contributing about 10% to 15% [2][36]. Summary by Sections M2 and Credit Growth - The M2 growth target for 2026 is set at approximately 7.5%, with an expected M2 increment of about 25.4 trillion yuan, driven by fiscal net injection of around 12.0 trillion yuan and bank credit issuance of about 16.8 trillion yuan [1][21][22]. - The anticipated credit growth for 2026 is around 6.0%, with new social financing expected to reach approximately 35.3 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.0% growth rate [21][26][30]. Deposit Flow and Asset-Liability Structure - The report indicates that the flow of deposits from large banks to smaller banks will be a critical factor in determining the marginal changes in the asset-liability gap for large banks in 2026. The pressure from deposit migration is expected to ease somewhat [2][41][54]. - The maturing term deposits for the six major banks are estimated to be between 27 trillion and 32 trillion yuan, with a significant portion being long-term deposits [3][49][50]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines for investment in 2026: high-quality companies with improving fundamentals, such as Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, and stable high-dividend stocks like China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the banking sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to see a reasonable M2 growth target of approximately 7.5%, with credit growth around 6.0% and social financing growth at about 8.0% for 2026. This aligns with the goal of stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [1][21]. - The report highlights that the flow of deposits will be a key factor affecting the asset-liability structure of banks in 2026, with a significant amount of term deposits maturing, estimated at around 57 trillion yuan [3][49]. - The credit allocation is expected to remain strong for corporate lending, contributing approximately 80% to 85% of new loans, while retail lending is anticipated to show marginal improvement, contributing about 10% to 15% [2][36]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The actual GDP growth target for 2026 is estimated at 4.9%, with a nominal GDP growth target of about 5.0%, which corresponds to a reasonable M2 growth target of 7.5% [1][15]. - The projected M2 increment for 2026 is approximately 25.4 trillion yuan, with fiscal net M2 injection around 12.0 trillion yuan and bank credit (including write-offs and ABS) contributing about 16.8 trillion yuan [21][22]. Credit Allocation - Corporate lending is expected to remain the primary support for new loans, while retail lending will experience structural differentiation, with personal operating loans maintaining good growth and housing loans likely showing slight positive growth [2][36]. - The report indicates that the flow of deposits from large banks to smaller banks will be a critical factor in the marginal changes in the asset-liability gap for large banks in 2026 [3][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines for investment in 2026: high-quality companies with improving fundamentals, such as Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, and stable high-dividend stocks like China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [4][5].

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The fixed income weekly report indicates a significant decline in ultra-long bonds, with the 30-year government bond yield spread at a historically low level of 40 basis points as of December 31, 2025, reflecting ongoing economic pressures and a lack of new government bond issuance expected in Q4 2026 [7][8][9] - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.9 to 50.1 in December, marking the first return to the expansionary zone since April, which has implications for bond market dynamics and investor sentiment [10] Group 2: Chemical Industry - In December 2025, Brent crude oil futures averaged $61.6 per barrel, down $2.0 from the previous month, while WTI crude oil futures averaged $57.9 per barrel, down $1.6, influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns [10][11] - OPEC+ announced a pause in production increases for Q1 2026, which may stabilize oil prices amid fluctuating demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [11][12][13] Group 3: Home Appliance Industry - The continuation of the national subsidy policy for home appliances in 2026 is expected to stimulate domestic demand, with January production of white goods showing a positive trend due to the policy's impact [14][15] - The new subsidy policy focuses on six major appliance categories, providing a 15% subsidy for energy-efficient products, which is anticipated to drive consumer purchasing behavior [14][15] Group 4: AI Applications and Content Platforms - MiniMax, a global AI model company, has a significant presence in over 200 countries, with 73% of its revenue coming from overseas, indicating strong international market penetration [17][18] - The company has developed leading models in AI video and audio, with a focus on multi-modal integration expected to drive future growth in AI applications [18][19] Group 5: Electronic Industry - The electronic sector is poised for a strong start in 2026, with expectations of increased demand driven by AI-related growth and upcoming product innovations showcased at CES [23][24] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with companies like Longxin Technology planning to raise 29.5 billion for expansion, indicating a bullish outlook for domestic semiconductor production [26][28] Group 6: Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The State Council's release of the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Treatment Action Plan" aims for significant improvements in solid waste management by 2030, which may lead to increased investment in waste-to-energy projects [31][32] - The number of new garbage incineration projects is expected to rise, with a projected investment of approximately 8.963 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a recovery in the sector [31][32] Group 7: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is transitioning from a state-led model to a private-driven model, emphasizing cost efficiency and technological innovation, which is expected to catalyze growth in the industry [33][34] - The upcoming years are seen as pivotal for China's commercial aerospace market, with significant projects like the "Thousand Flotilla Constellation" expected to drive commercialization [34]

2026年1月6日 证券研究报告 | 社会服务行业1月投资策略 元旦出行开门红，春节错期推荐反季节经营旺季龙头 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 ◼ 元旦假期总结：国内游量升符合预期，价重回温和增长通道。量端，根据文旅部，元旦假期3天，全国国内出游1.42亿人次、估算较2024年 增长5.2%；根据交通运输部，元旦假期预计累计全社会跨区域人员流动量为5.9亿人次，日均1.98亿人次，同比增长19.5%；铁路、民航客运 量相较2024年元旦假期分别增长9.1%、13.3%。价端，国内出游总花费847.89亿元、估算较2024年增长6.3%；据此估算人均消费较2024年增 长1.1%。总体上，得益于假期晴好天气以及请3休8拼假方案，假期旅游意愿向好，短途微度假与南北互换长线游交织。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ◼ 子行业：与2024元旦相比，海南免税量价高升，酒店需求双位数增长，山岳型景区表现突出，出境游延续景气，本地消费平稳。 1）免税： 根据海口海关统计，元旦假期共监管离岛免税商品销售44.2万件、购物人数8.35万人次、购物金额7.12亿元，对比2024年元旦假期，离岛免 税销售额、购物人次、人 ...

- The provided content does not include any quantitative models or factors, nor their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results