证券研究报告 | 2025年12月26日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | 行业与公司 | 数据日期:2025-12-25 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3959.62 | 13531.41 | 4642.53 | 14517.25 | 3938.41 | 1349.05 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.47 | 0.33 | 0.18 | 0.70 | 0.69 | -0.22 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7850.18 | 11395.04 | 3853.56 | 4151.46 | 5262.93 | 448.28 | 【常规内容】 中国神华(601088.SH) 公司快评:千亿规模收购助力未来发展，龙头行稳 致远 中国海油(600938.SH) 公司快评:渤海海域获得亿吨级油田发现，国内油 气持续上产 金融工程 金融工程周报:股指分红点位监控周报-股指期货主力合约贴水幅度收窄 金融工程日报:沪指震荡攀升录得六连阳，商业 ...

| 数据日期:2025-12-25 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3959.62 | 13531.41 | 4642.53 | 14517.25 | 3938.41 | 1349.05 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.47 | 0.33 | 0.18 | 0.70 | 0.69 | -0.22 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7850.18 | 11395.04 | 3853.56 | 4151.46 | 5262.93 | 448.28 | 【常规内容】 行业与公司 医药生物行业 2025 年 12 月投资策略：推荐关注 CXO 板块 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月26日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | 中国神华(601088.SH) 公司快评:千亿规模收购助力未来发展，龙头行稳 致远 中国海油(600938.SH) 公司快评:渤海海域获得亿吨级油田发现，国内油 气持续上产 金融工程 金融工程周报:股指分红点位监控周报-股 ...

事项： 事件：云天化参股子公司取得云南镇雄碗厂 24.38 亿吨磷矿采矿权。云天化于 2025 年 12 月 25 日发布公 告披露其参股子公司云南云天化聚磷新材料有限公司（简称"聚磷新材"）已于 12 月 23 日取得云南省镇 雄县碗厂磷矿的《不动产权证书（采矿权）》与《采矿许可证》。该矿区面积达 23.1564 平方公里，开采 期限至 2040 年 12 月，资源量约 24.38 亿吨、平均品位 22.54%，主采矿种为磷矿，共伴生氟矿。云天化目 前持有聚磷新材 35%股权，其控股股东云天化集团承诺 3 年内将聚磷新材控制权优先注入上市公司；此次 采矿权落地后，聚磷新材将打造磷基新材料产业园区，助力云天化实现磷资源高值高效利用，推动产业结 构升级与核心竞争力提升。 国信化工观点：1）此次聚磷新材取得的镇雄碗厂磷矿是国内少有的大型优质磷矿资源，公司磷矿资源储 备大幅增厚，筑牢成本与竞争壁垒；2）磷矿石稀缺属性持续强化，储能及动力电池驱动磷矿石需求上行； 3）磷矿石价格预期高位运行，矿增贡献的利润增量可期。 投资建议：公司作为化肥及磷化工龙头，资源与产业规模优势显著，我们维持公司 2025-2027 年归母净 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant shift in the outbound strategy of A-share companies, moving from simple product exports to a comprehensive system export, including capacity, brand, and management systems by 2026 [1][9] - A total of 2723 A-share companies are involved in outbound business, with 60.96% showing a positive attitude towards international expansion, indicating that going global has become a necessary strategy rather than an optional one [1][16] - The report identifies three key sectors driving outbound activities: high-tech chemical materials, high-end equipment, and electronic components, which are characterized by strong technological barriers and industry clustering [1][2] Group 2 - The report outlines differentiated regional opportunities, emphasizing Europe for high-end manufacturing and green transformation, Southeast Asia as a hub for industrial chain overflow, and the Middle East and Latin America for energy transition and infrastructure needs [2][45] - An "owl-shaped" investment strategy is recommended, balancing stable income from high-dividend, low-valuation assets with growth potential from high-tech, aggressive growth stocks [2][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on industries with high technological barriers and strong industry clustering for investment opportunities in 2026 [2][32] Group 3 - The report provides a quantitative analysis of A-share companies' attitudes towards outbound strategies, revealing that over 45% of announcements are positive, while negative announcements are negligible [14][16] - The mechanical equipment, pharmaceutical, computer, power equipment, and automotive sectors account for over 44.2% of outbound announcements, indicating their central role in international expansion [19][23] - A unique indicator system is introduced to identify industries with strong global competitiveness, focusing on technological moat, industry clustering, and urgency for outbound investment [27][28] Group 4 - The report discusses the transformation of the global trade landscape, highlighting a shift from a linear trade model to a triangular model involving "connector countries" like Vietnam and Mexico, which facilitate Chinese companies' access to international markets [9][10] - It notes that many A-share companies are transitioning from OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) to OBM (Original Brand Manufacturer) models, indicating a shift towards brand and management system exports [12][14] - The report identifies specific industries such as semiconductors, glass fiber, and commercial vehicles as key areas for investment due to their strong global positioning and growth potential [35][38][42]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Core Insights - The rise of robo-advisors is driven by the integration of financial technology and traditional wealth management, offering low costs, high accessibility, and convenience. Post-global financial crisis, stricter regulations and technological advancements have facilitated the emergence of non-bank fintech companies, with robo-advisors serving as a cost-effective alternative to human advisors. They utilize algorithms to automatically construct investment portfolios, significantly reducing advisory fees and breaking geographical barriers, allowing investors to access professional services anytime and anywhere. Robo-advisors particularly attract low-income groups and younger users by minimizing trading costs through passive investment strategies, enhancing capital market participation for long-term goals like retirement and emergency savings. The evolution of robo-advisors has progressed through four stages: early online questionnaires and static advice, full automation and passive management, establishment of hybrid models, and AI-driven hyper-personalization and intelligent agents [2][9][10]. - The global robo-advisory market is experiencing rapid expansion, with the U.S. maintaining a dominant position while emerging markets like China show significant potential for growth. The market size is projected to increase from $7.7 billion in 2023 to approximately $116.4 billion by 2033, with the U.S. accounting for 81% of global assets under management (AUM). The competitive landscape in the U.S. has formed a "three giants and many strong" scenario, with Vanguard, Schwab, and Fidelity as the major players, while independent unicorns like Betterment and Wealthfront continue to thrive. In Europe, the market share remains relatively small, with key players categorized into pan-European super platforms, market consolidators, and regional champions. China's robo-advisory market is expected to exceed $2 billion by 2028 and $4 billion by 2030, contributing to the development of passive investment strategies and long-term capital market participation [2][15][21][25][30]. - The business model of robo-advisors is evolving towards platformization and ecosystem integration, with revenue models shifting from single asset management fees to layered charging and technology empowerment. Robo-advisors have expanded from B2C to B2B and ecosystem models, exemplified by Ant Wealth's scenario collaboration for traffic conversion. Revenue diversification includes pure digital models relying on AUM management fees, tiered subscription models offering premium services, B2B tool empowerment models generating profits through technology output, and ecosystem platform models depending on product distribution commissions. This evolution highlights the industry's transition from scale expansion to value extraction [2][35][39]. - The core competitive advantages of leading robo-advisors include comprehensive strength, digital experience, and user-friendliness for beginners. Platforms with strong comprehensive capabilities often excel in long-term performance and service quality, while the best digital planning platforms possess robust personal asset aggregation tools that create automated financial management loops. User-friendly platforms may excel in brand trust or community ecosystem development. In the competitive landscape, Betterment and Wealthfront not only survive but thrive, embodying the pure fintech spirit by creating value through technological innovation and exceptional user experience [2][39][50]. - The development trend of robo-advisors is characterized by a philosophical debate between "active" and "passive" investment strategies. Analyzing the portfolio data of various robo-advisors reveals a shift in the industry towards this philosophical contention, categorized into MPT believers (Vanguard & Betterment), potential active managers (SoFi & Axos), and tech-driven alpha harvesters (Wealthfront) [2][11]. - Looking ahead, the industry is poised for significant restructuring and a new journey. By 2025, the robo-advisory sector will have transitioned from rapid growth to a phase of integration and iteration. Three major trends are expected to continue: industry consolidation, a shift from scale to sustainable profitability, and AI reshaping robo-advisory services. The complete withdrawal of bank-affiliated robo-advisors reflects ongoing industry consolidation, as the mismatch between customer acquisition costs and lifetime value necessitates substantial new scale to cover technology and compliance costs. Independent platforms are now focusing on sustainable profitability rather than blind scale expansion, as exemplified by Robinhood's acquisition of AI financial planning company Pluto and the launch of its own robo-advisory service, which aims to provide genuinely personalized financial consulting through large language models [2][15][30].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquor industry is currently facing supply-demand imbalances, with companies reducing growth expectations and releasing channel pressures. The white liquor index has dropped by 12% since the beginning of 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 33% [1][11] - The report highlights that the overall market demand for white liquor has shown slight recovery, but actual demand remains weak, with mainstream product prices in a downward trend. Companies like Wuliangye and Gujing Gongjiu are reducing growth expectations, leading to significant declines in Q3 performance [1][22] - The report suggests that the white liquor sector is entering a configuration phase, with leading companies like Kweichow Moutai improving their price-volume relationship and showcasing dividend asset attributes, with a projected dividend yield of 4% in 2026 [3][4] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the report anticipates that supply-side optimization and channel clearing will occur, with a focus on quality company configurations. The industry is expected to see gradual recovery in demand, particularly during the Spring Festival sales period [2][29] - The report notes that channel inventory has decreased since Q3 2025, and companies are focusing on maintaining dynamic profits for distributors. Leading companies are gradually relaxing channel policies, indicating a stabilization trend in product prices post-holiday [2][42] - The competitive landscape is shifting from price differentiation to brand and organizational capabilities, with companies that can establish pricing power in specific regions or demographics likely to emerge from the adjustment cycle first [2][29] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest that the white liquor sector is now in a configuration zone, with a focus on brands that can navigate through cycles, such as Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, which are expected to see valuation improvements as market liquidity increases [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that have established advantages in pricing and regional market share during the adjustment phase, such as Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, and Jinhui Liquor [3][4] - The report also highlights companies with strong shareholder returns and cash flow safety margins, such as Wuliangye, as potential investment opportunities [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7] Core Insights - The company has announced the production commencement of the Weizhou 11-4 oilfield adjustment and surrounding area development project, with a peak production capacity of 16,900 barrels per day expected by 2026 [4][8] - The West Jiang oilfield group 24 area development project is also set to commence production, with a peak production capacity of 18,000 barrels per day anticipated by 2026 [4][9] - A significant discovery of a billion-ton oilfield, Qinhuangdao 29-6, has been made in the Bohai Sea, which is expected to solidify the resource base for increased production [5][10] - The Bohai oilfield is projected to exceed an annual production equivalent of 40 million tons by 2025, contributing significantly to national energy security [6][11] - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 126.3 billion, 129.7 billion, and 135 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.66, 2.73, and 2.84 yuan, and PE ratios of 10.6, 10.3, and 9.9x [6][11] Summary by Relevant Sections Project Developments - The Weizhou 11-4 oilfield project will utilize existing facilities and is expected to reach a peak production of 16,900 barrels per day by 2026, with 35 wells planned [4][8] - The West Jiang oilfield group 24 area project will also leverage existing infrastructure, aiming for a peak production of 18,000 barrels per day by 2026, featuring innovative technology for continuous production [4][9] Resource Discoveries - The Qinhuangdao 29-6 oilfield discovery in the Bohai Sea has confirmed geological reserves exceeding 100 million tons of oil equivalent, showcasing the exploration potential in the area [5][10] Production and Financial Forecasts - The Bohai oilfield's annual production is expected to surpass 40 million tons by 2025, marking it as a crucial asset for national energy security [6][11] - The company projects steady growth in net profits and earnings per share over the next few years, maintaining a favorable valuation outlook [6][11]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月25日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-24 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3940.94 | 13486.41 | 4634.05 | 14415.35 | 3911.33 | 1352.12 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.53 | 0.87 | 0.28 | 1.15 | 1.21 | 0.90 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7739.28 | 11063.39 | 4063.75 | 3992.53 | 5025.69 | 510.88 | 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 策略快评:国信资配体系概览-低利率时代资产配置攻略 行业与公司 电子行业周报：电子上游通胀趋势延续，业绩预告期继续推荐存力+算力 农业行业快评:牧业大周期更新点评-重视牧业大周期反转，肉奶联动有 望打开成长空间 滔搏(06110.HK) 海外公司快评:三季度流水下滑高单位数，折扣同比加 深幅度 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月24日 2025年12月25日 国信煤炭观点：1）本次交易有利于增厚公司业绩。交易后公司 2024 年扣除非经常性损益后的基本每股收 益将提升至 3.15 元/股，增厚 6.10%。2025 年 1-7 月扣除非经常性损益后的基本每股收益将提升至 1.54 元/股，增厚 4.40%。此外根据业绩承诺，承诺的部分业绩在 2026-2028 年的合计为 29.6 亿元/45.5 亿元 /66.4 亿元，2027-2028 年增速分别为 54%、46%，为上市公司提供增长动能。2）本次交易巩固公司龙头地 位。本次交易后公司煤炭储量增加 97.7%，煤炭产量将提升至 5.12 亿吨，在全国原煤产量中占比约 10.8%， 进一步巩固行业龙头地位，同时增强产业链协同能力。公司是全球领先的以煤为基的综合能源企业，产运 销七板块业务协同，业绩稳定性强，股息回报丰厚，维持"优于大市"评级。。 评论： 巩固公司行业龙头地位，提升公司资产质量 巩固煤炭行业龙头地位。通过本次交易，中国神华的煤炭保有资源量将提升至 684.9 亿吨，增加 64.72%； 煤炭可采储量将提升至 345 亿吨，增加 97 ...