Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The real estate market in 2025 ended with a downward trend in fundamentals, but there are positive signals expected in early 2026 [3] - The cumulative decline in sales has widened, but the monthly decline has narrowed, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [4] - The overall investment environment is challenging, with significant declines in both real estate development investment and funds available to real estate companies [4][53] - Despite the downturn, there is an increasing probability that housing prices may stabilize, with a shift in sentiment towards a more optimistic outlook for real estate stocks [4][104] Summary by Sections Investment and Sales Data - In 2025, national real estate development investment reached 82,788 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%. The area of new housing started was 58,770 million square meters, down 20.4%, and the area of completed housing was 42,984 million square meters, down 19.8% [3] - New residential property sales amounted to 88,101 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 8.7%, with sales revenue of 83,937 billion yuan, down 12.6% [3] Market Trends - The decline in sales has been more pronounced cumulatively, but the monthly figures show a narrowing of the decline, suggesting a potential recovery [5] - The proportion of pre-sold housing has decreased, and the growth rate of unsold inventory has slowed down [4][6] - The average selling price of new residential properties in 2025 was 9,527 yuan per square meter, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3% [37] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a more optimistic stance towards real estate stocks, particularly recommending China Jinmao and China Merchants Shekou, as the market shows signs of potential recovery [4][104] - The probability of housing prices stabilizing has increased from "impossible" to "possible," with further improvements expected if the market does not repeat previous patterns of "price for volume" after the Spring Festival [4][104]

Policy Overview - The Ministry of Finance has introduced seven structural policies since January 20, focusing on loans, risk compensation guarantees, and consumer subsidies, with a total investment of approximately 250 billion yuan[1] - These policies reflect a continuous optimization of fiscal expenditure structure, emphasizing a moderate expansion in total fiscal policy while enhancing quality and efficiency[1] Fiscal Outlook - Fiscal revenue is expected to continue recovering due to strengthened tax collection and the gradual reduction of certain tax incentives, with an estimated overall deficit expansion of about 700 billion yuan for the year[1] - By the end of 2025, fiscal deposits are projected to remain at historically high levels, allowing for some rollover of existing funds into the current year[1] Structural Adjustments - The ongoing zero-based budgeting reform is enhancing the flexibility of fiscal fund allocation, leading to improved efficiency in fund utilization and a continued trend of prioritizing social welfare in fiscal spending[1] - Specific policies include a loan interest subsidy for fixed asset investments, with an estimated subsidy scale of around 200 billion yuan, and a consumer loan subsidy expected to reach approximately 100 billion yuan[9][13] Social Welfare Initiatives - The elderly care subsidy policy is projected to benefit around 20 million elderly individuals, with an estimated total subsidy amounting to 1.92 trillion yuan, potentially stimulating approximately 4.3 trillion yuan in overall elderly care service consumption[18]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to identify market trends and momentum. It is based on the principle that stocks or indices closer to their recent highs tend to exhibit stronger momentum and potential for future gains[11][19]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price has fallen from the high, the distance is a positive value representing the percentage drop[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures momentum and trend-following characteristics, aligning with prior research on the predictive power of stocks near their 52-week highs[11][19]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies stocks with stable price movements and consistent new highs, leveraging the idea that smoother price paths and sustained momentum yield better returns[27][29]. - **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are selected based on the following criteria: 1. **Analyst Attention**: At least five "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings in the past three months 2. **Relative Strength**: Top 20% in terms of 250-day price performance 3. **Price Stability**: - **Price Path Smoothness**: Measured by the ratio of price displacement to total price movement over the past 120 days - **Momentum Consistency**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days 4. **Trend Continuation**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past five days Stocks meeting these criteria are ranked, and the top 50 are selected[27][29]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model emphasizes the importance of smooth price paths and consistent momentum, which are less likely to attract excessive attention and thus may yield stronger returns[27]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite: 0.70% - Shenzhen Component: 0.00% - CSI 300: 1.84% - CSI 500: 0.00% - CSI 1000: 0.00% - CSI 2000: 0.00% - ChiNext Index: 1.15% - STAR 50 Index: 0.00%[12][13][34] 2. Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Selected Stocks**: 50 stocks were identified, including Jiangbolong, Shengda Resources, and Yuanjie Technology. - **Sector Distribution**: - Cyclical Sector: 23 stocks (e.g., Basic Chemicals) - Technology Sector: 18 stocks (e.g., Electronics)[30][35] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the proximity of a stock's price to its 250-day high, capturing momentum and trend-following characteristics[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is widely supported by academic research and practical applications, demonstrating strong predictive power for momentum strategies[11][19]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: Quantifies the smoothness of a stock's price movement, as smoother paths are associated with stronger momentum effects[27]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ Price\ Path\ Smoothness = \frac{Price\ Displacement}{Total\ Price\ Movement} $ Where: - $ Price\ Displacement $ is the absolute change in price over 120 days - $ Total\ Price\ Movement $ is the sum of absolute daily price changes over 120 days[27]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor highlights the importance of consistent price movements, which are less likely to attract excessive attention and thus may yield stronger returns[27]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite: 0.70% - Shenzhen Component: 0.00% - CSI 300: 1.84% - CSI 500: 0.00% - CSI 1000: 0.00% - CSI 2000: 0.00% - ChiNext Index: 1.15% - STAR 50 Index: 0.00%[12][13][34] 2. Price Path Smoothness Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 50 stocks were identified, including Jiangbolong, Shengda Resources, and Yuanjie Technology. - **Sector Distribution**: - Cyclical Sector: 23 stocks (e.g., Basic Chemicals) - Technology Sector: 18 stocks (e.g., Electronics)[30][35]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to identify market trends and hotspots. It is based on the momentum and trend-following strategy, which has been validated by various studies[11][19]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price falls from the high, the distance is a positive value representing the degree of decline[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies stocks or indices with strong momentum and highlights market leaders, aligning with the principles of momentum investing[11][19]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model refines the momentum strategy by focusing on stocks with smooth price paths and consistent new highs, leveraging the "smooth momentum" effect[27]. - **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are selected based on the following criteria: - Analyst Attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - Relative Strength: Top 20% in 250-day price performance - Price Stability: - Price path smoothness: Ratio of price displacement to total price movement - Consistency of new highs: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Trend Continuation: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days The top 50 stocks meeting these criteria are selected[27][29]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model emphasizes stocks with stable momentum and consistent performance, which are less likely to experience sharp reversals, making it a robust enhancement to traditional momentum strategies[27][29]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 0.70% - Shenzhen Component Index: 0.00% - CSI 300: 1.84% - CSI 500: 0.00% - CSI 1000: 0.00% - CSI 2000: 0.00% - ChiNext Index: 1.15% - STAR 50 Index: 0.00%[12][13][34] 2. Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Selected Stocks**: 50 stocks were identified, including Jiangbolong, Shengda Resources, and Yuanjie Technology. - **Sector Distribution**: - Cyclical Sector: 23 stocks, with the highest concentration in basic chemicals - Technology Sector: 18 stocks, with the highest concentration in electronics[30][35] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative position of a stock's price to its 250-day high, capturing momentum and trend-following characteristics[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is widely recognized for its ability to identify stocks with strong momentum and potential for continued outperformance[11]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: Quantifies the stability of a stock's price movement, favoring stocks with smoother trajectories[27]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Price path smoothness is calculated as the ratio of price displacement to the total price movement over a given period[27]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor enhances the momentum strategy by reducing exposure to volatile stocks, improving risk-adjusted returns[27]. 3. Factor Name: Consistency of New Highs - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the persistence of a stock's new high performance over time, emphasizing sustained momentum[27]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days is used as a proxy for consistency[27]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor ensures that selected stocks exhibit reliable momentum, reducing the likelihood of short-term reversals[27]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 0.70% - Shenzhen Component Index: 0.00% - CSI 300: 1.84% - CSI 500: 0.00% - CSI 1000: 0.00% - CSI 2000: 0.00% - ChiNext Index: 1.15% - STAR 50 Index: 0.00%[12][13][34] 2. Price Path Smoothness Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 50 stocks were identified, including Jiangbolong, Shengda Resources, and Yuanjie Technology. - **Sector Distribution**: - Cyclical Sector: 23 stocks, with the highest concentration in basic chemicals - Technology Sector: 18 stocks, with the highest concentration in electronics[30][35] 3. Consistency of New Highs Factor - **Selected Stocks**: Same as the Price Path Smoothness Factor, as it is part of the composite selection criteria[30][35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the commercial aerospace industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing robust growth driven by a fourfold resonance of policy, technology, capital, and market dynamics. Key developments include clear policy frameworks, imminent technological breakthroughs in reusable rockets, increased capital inflow, and expanding market applications [2] - The industry is on the verge of entering a "Great Aerospace Era," with multiple rocket models expected to conduct reusable tests by 2025, paving the way for a low-cost era in commercial aerospace [2] - The commercial aerospace industry chain is entering a scale-up phase, with a projected increase of over 25% in rocket launches and satellite deployments in 2025 compared to 2024 [2] Summary by Sections 1. Policy, Technology, Capital, and Market Resonance - The commercial aerospace industry is supported by a series of government policies, including the establishment of a dedicated Commercial Aerospace Department and significant funding initiatives [20] - Technological advancements are imminent, particularly in reusable rocket technology, with several companies racing to validate their designs [21] - Capital market activity is high, with a projected total financing of 18.6 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 32% year-on-year increase [30] 2. Rocket Industry Chain - The rocket industry is characterized by a focus on reusable technology, which is expected to significantly reduce launch costs by up to 80% [13] - The industry is moving towards a more integrated supply chain, with upstream components and materials becoming increasingly valuable [66] 3. Satellite Industry Chain - The satellite manufacturing sector is transitioning to a mass production model, with several factories established to meet growing demand [26] - The cost structure of satellite production is being optimized through standardization and mass production techniques, leading to a decrease in unit costs [26] 4. Market Demand - National and commercial demands for satellite services are surging, driven by applications in military, telecommunications, and emerging sectors like space tourism [33][40] - The competition for low-Earth orbit resources is intensifying, with China submitting applications for over 200,000 satellites to the International Telecommunication Union [36]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月23日 钾肥行业点评 全球氯化钾供需紧张，2026 年需求、价格有望超预期 |  行业研究·行业快评 | | |  石油石化 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 证券分析师： | 薛聪 | 010-88005107 | xuecong@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120001 | 事项： 近期，国内钾肥价格较年初已经上涨 50-100 元/吨，目前国产 60%白钾 3300 元/吨，边贸 62%白钾 3400 元 /吨，港口 62%白钾 3500 元/吨。 1）国内钾肥库存低位，看好春耕钾肥价格上行。根据百川盈孚数据，2025 国内氯化钾合计产量 582 万吨， 同比-38 万吨（yoy-6%）；截至 1 月 15 日，国内氯化钾港口库存 251 万吨，环比+3 万吨，同比-45 万吨， 且国储仍需 150 万吨补库需 ...

| 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-01-22 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4122.57 | 14327.04 | 4723.70 | 15645.58 | 4174.99 | 1541.63 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.13 | 0.50 | 0.01 | 0.70 | 0.87 | 0.40 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 12017.64 | 14899.68 | 6902.35 | 5337.35 | 6815.35 | 1144.71 | 【常规内容】 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月23日 江苏金租(600901.SH) 财报点评:双轮锚定价值，稳健穿越周期 周大福(01929.HK) 公司快评:销售增长进一步加速，定价首饰占比提升 利好毛利率 苏农银行(603323.SH) 财报点评:收利润增速平稳，资产质量稳健 兴业银行(601166.SH) 财报点评:营收增速由负转正 立高食品(3 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月22日 寻找中国保险的 Alpha 系列之四 优于大市 从保单到数据：新能源车险的价值跃迁 产业周期看财险：我国新能源车险已步入"量价齐升"的黄金发展期。在"双 碳"目标的国家战略指引与延续性的购置税减免等政策激励下，我国新能源 汽车市场渗透率持续快速提升。2024 年，我国新能源汽车销量占总新车销量 的比例已高达 40.9%，零售渗透率逼近 50%，其销量增速显著超越传统燃油 车，这为车险保费增长提供了坚实的原生动力。与此同时，"高级驾驶辅助 系统（ADAS）"渗透率超过 50%以及"基于使用行为的保险（UBI）"等创 新模式的普及，正从技术层面重塑车险的风险管理与定价逻辑，为行业破解 成本困局提供了关键工具。 | 证券分析师：孔祥 | 证券分析师：王京灵 | | --- | --- | | 021-60375452 | 0755-22941150 | | kongxiang@guosen.com.cn | wangjingling@guosen.com.cn | | S0980523060004 | S0980525070007 | 新能源车险高增长背后是当前"高成本、高 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company has established itself as a leading coal enterprise with a strong focus on growth and high dividends, supported by a diversified business model that includes mining, high-end chemical materials, high-end equipment manufacturing, smart logistics, and new energy [2][4] - The company has significant coal resources and production capacity, with a total coal resource of 889.74 billion tons and an exploitable reserve of 177.44 billion tons as of the end of 2024 [2][10] - The coal quality is excellent, characterized by low ash, low sulfur, and high calorific value, which enhances its market reputation [2][55] - The coal chemical business is technologically advanced and poised for growth, with plans to expand production capacity significantly in the coming years [2][4] - The company is actively pursuing acquisitions to enhance its resource base and operational capabilities, including recent acquisitions of mining assets [22][24] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company was founded in 1997 and has listings in multiple stock exchanges, becoming an international energy company with a diversified portfolio [2][10] - The company aims to create green energy and lead energy transformation, focusing on five main industries: mining, high-end chemical materials, new energy, high-end equipment manufacturing, and smart logistics [10][21] 2. Coal Resource and Production Capacity - The company has a rich distribution of coal resources across various regions, including Shandong, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Australia, with a total coal resource of 464.3 billion tons and an exploitable reserve of 60.05 billion tons [2][55] - The company plans to achieve a coal production target of 300 million tons per year, with significant capacity expansions expected from new mines in the coming years [2][4] 3. Coal Chemical Business - The coal chemical segment is a key growth area, with advanced technologies and plans for new projects that will enhance production capacity and product diversity [2][4] - The company is set to launch several high-end coal chemical projects, including an 80,000-ton ethylene project and a 50,000-ton high-temperature Fischer-Tropsch project [2][4] 4. Other Business Segments - The company is diversifying into non-coal mining, logistics, and equipment manufacturing, with significant resources in molybdenum and potassium salts [2][4] - Recent acquisitions have strengthened the company's logistics capabilities, enhancing its integrated logistics system [22][24] 5. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 135.8 billion, 145.7 billion, and 147.4 billion yuan, with net profits of 10.6 billion, 13.3 billion, and 13.4 billion yuan respectively [2][4] - The stock is expected to have a reasonable valuation range of 15.9 to 17.2 yuan by 2026, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 24% compared to the closing price on January 19, 2026 [2][4]

Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Outperform" [1][4][5] Core Insights - The report explores the relationship between the automotive industry's prosperity (sales growth) and the valuation of the automotive sector, indicating that while the industry faces pressures from diminishing total growth, it also encounters transformative opportunities from rapid AI model iterations [1][2] - The correlation between industry prosperity and sector valuation has weakened since 2019, leading to two key effects: decoupling effect and asymmetric effect, where high prosperity can drive valuation increases, but low prosperity does not necessarily lead to valuation declines [2][21] - The automotive industry is transitioning to a low growth phase, with total sales expected to stabilize, while structural opportunities arise from exports, smart vehicles, and robotics [3][52] Summary by Sections Relationship Between Valuation and Prosperity - There is a long-term positive correlation between automotive sector valuation and industry prosperity, with valuation showing a leading indicator effect on sales growth [11][15] - Monthly valuation of the automotive sector has a strong correlation with monthly sales growth, indicating that current valuations reflect future sales growth expectations [19][15] Decoupling and Asymmetric Effects - The relationship between prosperity and valuation has decoupled since 2019, with high prosperity not being a necessary condition for high valuation [21][23] - High prosperity can enhance valuation, while low prosperity does not necessarily suppress it, indicating a structural shift in valuation dynamics [35][36] Three-Cycle Theory - The automotive industry is influenced by three cycles: macroeconomic cycle, industrial technology cycle, and policy cycle, which together affect the industry's fundamentals and valuation [39][48] - The shift in dominant cycles from macroeconomic and policy cycles to industrial technology cycles has led to a redefinition of valuation logic, emphasizing structural opportunities over total growth [40][49] Future Outlook - The automotive industry is expected to enter a phase of normalized low growth, with total sales projected to stabilize around 34.89 million units in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 11% [52][56] - The report highlights the potential for structural growth driven by advancements in AI and smart vehicle technologies, which are anticipated to become new engines of valuation growth [3][52]