Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [5] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit declined in 2024, with total revenue (including joint ventures) at 77.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, and net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders at 1.5 billion yuan, down 65.2% [1][3] - The total assets of the company increased slightly to 1.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, with stable performance in the non-performing asset management segment [1][2] - The decline in revenue was primarily driven by a 9.1% drop in income from the non-performing asset management segment, while the financial services segment remained stable [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 77,468 million yuan, down 6.2% from 2023, and net profit of 1,485 million yuan, down 65.2% [4][8] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 0.04 yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 0.9% [4][8] Asset Management - The total assets at the end of 2024 were 1.64 trillion yuan, reflecting a 2.8% increase year-on-year, with stable growth in the financial services subsidiary [1][4] - The credit cost rate for 2024 was 2.1%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to risk exposure in non-performing debt projects [2] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for ordinary shareholders for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 3.3 billion, 3.4 billion, and 3.4 billion yuan respectively, with expected growth rates of 125%, 1%, and 0% [3][4] - The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.09 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18, 12, and 12 times [3][4]

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月26日 健盛集团（603558.SH） 优于大市 2024 年净利润增长 20%，棉袜稳健增长无缝盈利修复 2024 年净利润增长 20%，通过分红和回购提升股东回报。公司是棉袜制造龙 头，2017 年拓展无缝服饰代工业务。2024 年收入同比增长 12.8%至 25.74 亿 元，归母净利润增长 20.2%至 3.25 亿元，扣非归母净利润同比增长 22.5%至 3.21 亿元。毛利率同比提升 2.8 个百分点至 28.8%；销售/管理费用率分别 同比-0.1/+0.4 个百分点，主要系奖励基金计提增加；银行借款利率下降带 动财务费用率下降 0.3 个百分点。存货周转天数同比减少 6 天至 120 天，应 收账款/应付账款周转天数分别同比+2/4 天至 76/29 天。全年资本开支 2.79 亿元，经营性现金流净额 3.42 亿元，自由现金流达 0.64 亿元。2024 年末分 红 0.3 元/股，叠加中期分红 0.2 元/股，分红率为 55%；同时公司发布新的 回购方案，拟于拟于 2025/4/15-2026/4/14，回购金额 0.5-1.0 亿元，回购 价格不超过 1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][20]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a 64% year-on-year growth in net profit for 2024, with projected revenue of 213 billion yuan, representing a 14.4% increase. The net profit is forecasted to reach 13.53 billion yuan, while the non-recurring net profit is expected to be 13.12 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 110.5% [5][6]. - The company is actively working towards a target of one million tons of copper production, with successful exploration results from TFM and KFM projects. Additionally, the company has made progress in power supply construction with a signed agreement for a 200MW hydropower project in the Democratic Republic of Congo [13][15]. - The company has demonstrated significant cost reductions in copper and cobalt production, with copper costs dropping to 30,194 yuan per ton in 2024 from 34,500 yuan per ton in 2023, and cobalt costs decreasing to 52,740 yuan per ton from 72,158 yuan per ton [6][7]. Financial Projections - For 2024, the company is projected to generate revenue of 213 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.53 billion yuan. The expected revenue growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 20.5%, 3.6%, and 3.7%, respectively [3][18]. - The estimated diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.71 yuan, 0.80 yuan, and 0.93 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11.4, 10.1, and 8.7 [18][19]. - The company is expected to maintain a return on equity (ROE) of 19.1% in 2024, increasing to 20.5% by 2027 [3][18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [6]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 28.261 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.513 billion yuan, up 5.60% year-on-year [1]. - Total assets grew by 5.13% year-on-year to 1.51 trillion yuan, with deposits and loans increasing by 5.10% and 5.55%, respectively [2]. - The net interest margin for 2024 was 1.61%, a decrease of 12 basis points year-on-year, but it stabilized compared to the previous quarters [2]. - Non-interest income saw a significant increase of 29.23% year-on-year, driven mainly by investment income, despite a 10% decline in net fee and commission income [3]. - The company maintained a stable asset quality with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.18% and a provision coverage ratio of 363.44% [3]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 12.217 billion yuan, 13.031 billion yuan, and 13.966 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 6.1%, 6.7%, and 7.2% [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was 28.261 billion yuan, a 1.09% increase from the previous year, while net profit was 11.513 billion yuan, up 5.60% [1]. - The company experienced a decline in net interest income by 4.25% year-on-year due to narrowing interest margins [3]. - Non-interest income increased significantly by 29.23%, primarily due to strong investment returns [3]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.18%, with a slight increase from the previous quarter [3]. - The provision coverage ratio improved to 363.44%, indicating enhanced risk mitigation capabilities [3]. Capital and Growth Projections - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 14.24%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points from the previous year [2]. - The company expects to maintain a stable growth trajectory with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 12.217 billion yuan, 13.031 billion yuan, and 13.966 billion yuan, respectively [4].

宏观经济专题研究 三招打破通缩负循环 三招打破通缩负循环。2024 年我国消费对经济增长的拉动持续回落并在下半 年明显低于疫情期间的平均值，也罕见地被净出口反超。尽管 2024 年 9 月 后国家推出多项稳增长政策以提振内需，但四季度消费仍未明显改善。 这一困局的核心源于"工业通缩-服务业收缩-需求下降"的负向循环。自 2018 年起，中国逆周期调控政策从传统的需求刺激转向减税降费为主的供给刺 激，重点扶持工业部门（如新能源、汽车等），推动其高速发展。然而，工 业品价格持续下跌叠加财政收入紧张，迫使政策通过挤压服务业收入来维持 工业激励，导致服务业增长乏力。由于服务业是吸纳就业的主力军，其疲软 进一步抑制居民收入和消费需求，最终又加剧了工业通缩压力。 2025 年，中国政府有望通过以下三招打破这一负向循环： 证券研究报告 | 2025年03月26日 （1）实施积极财政扩张政策：2025 年新增政府债务规模达 11.86 万亿元， 较上年净增 2.9 万亿元，大大缓解财政收支紧张局面。政府激励工业部门的 生产和投资不再挤压服务业收入，部分财政资金还能用于刺激服务业发展。 该措施旨在通过服务业复苏带动就业市场改善 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月26日 中国利郎（01234.HK） 优于大市 DTC 转型拖累业绩，新零售渠道表现亮眼 2024 年收入增长 3%，净利率承压，高分红策略延续。公司主营商务男装品 牌销售，2024 年收入同比增长 3.0%至 36.5 亿元，净利润同比下滑 13.1% 至 4.6 亿元。毛利率同比下降 0.5 百分点至 47.7%，主要因收回分销权 向分销商支付一次性补偿金及存货拨备回拨减少。销售及管理费用率增 加 2.3 百分点；净利率下降 2.4 百分点至 12.6%。存货周转天数受直营 占比提升及暖冬影响增至 183 天，应收账款周转天数优化至 36 天。高 分红策略延续，全年派息比率达 73.1%，上市累计派息达 73 亿港元。 2024 下半年公司收入 20.5 亿元，同比基本持平；毛利率同比提升 0.3 个百分点至 45.8%，归母净利润同比下降 30.4%至 1.81 亿元。 DTC 转型短期压制业绩，新零售表现亮眼。1）分品牌看，主系列收入下降 3.0%，主要因收回东北和江苏地区分销权并转为 DTC 模式，影响分销收 入，同时向分销商支付一次性补偿金冲减收入；轻商务系列延续 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月26日 中国宏桥（01378.HK） 优于大市 受益于全产业链优势，盈利能力稳健 公司 2024 年归母净利润增长 95%。中国宏桥披露 2024 年业绩，报告期内营 业收入 1562 亿元，同比增长 17%；归母净利润 223.7 亿元，同比增长 95%； 经营活动现金流入净额为 142.6 亿元，同比增长 85%。报告期内公司发电厂 等资产计提资产减值 26.4 亿元。公司决定派发末期股息每股 102 港仙，加 上中期股息每股 59 港仙，2024 年度累计派息每股 161 港仙，折人民币 142 亿元，占 2024 年归母净利润 63%。 可换股债券的衍生工具部分变动。2024 年金融工具公允价值变动减利 21.9 亿元，主要是可换股债券的衍生工具部分计提。可转债的衍生工具部分减值 与转股价和正股价的差值相关，通常在公司股价大涨时该项减值数额比较 大，股价下跌后可以转回。 电解铝业务盈利大增：铝价上涨+能源成本下降。2024 年公司铝合金产品销 售价格 17550 元/吨，比 2023 年上涨 1100 元/吨；成本端，根据环渤海动力 煤价格，公司 2024 年煤炭采购 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][21][22] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 42.76 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.71 billion RMB, up 4.6% year-on-year, exceeding previous expectations [1][9] - The core operating profit reached 6.23 billion RMB, reflecting an 18.7% year-on-year growth, indicating strong operational performance [1][9] - The company is focusing on brand incubation under the "Red Pomegranate Plan," with 11 active entrepreneurial projects, including new brands like "Yanjing Barbecue" and "Xiao Hai Hot Pot" [3][18][20] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the overall table turnover rate was 4.1 times per day, an increase of 0.3 times year-on-year, while the average customer spending was 97.5 RMB, a slight decrease of 1.6 RMB [2][11] - The gross profit margin improved to 62.1%, a 3.0 percentage point increase, marking a new high since the company's listing [3][15] - The core operating profit margin reached 14.6%, up 1.9 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 11.0%, up 0.1 percentage points, both representing the best performance since the company went public [3][15] Store Expansion and Market Presence - As of the end of 2024, the total number of stores was 1,368, with 1,355 self-operated and 13 franchised, reflecting a net increase of 25 stores compared to mid-2024 [2][12] - Same-store sales growth was 3.6%, with different growth rates across city tiers, indicating resilience in the core hot pot business [2][12] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 5.38 billion RMB and 6.12 billion RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 6.93 billion RMB, indicating growth rates of 14.4%, 13.7%, and 13.3% [4][21] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16x, 14x, and 12x, respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation outlook [4][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][17] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.813 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.99%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.011 billion yuan, up 24.77% year-on-year [1][3][11] - The three main business segments, tire molds, large component machinery products, and machine tools, all showed strong performance, with significant growth in the fourth quarter [1][2] - The company is a global leader in tire mold production, with a continuous increase in market share and a positive outlook for the large component and machine tool segments due to ongoing demand [3][4] Revenue and Profitability - Revenue from the tire equipment, large component machinery, and CNC machine tool segments was 4.917 billion, 3.332 billion, and 399 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.39%, 20.31%, and 29.30% [2] - The gross margin for 2024 was 34.30%, with a slight decrease attributed to changes in product mix and increased personnel costs in the tire equipment segment [1][3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 22.85%, reflecting stable profitability despite slight fluctuations in gross margin [1][3] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 2.358 billion, 2.757 billion, and 3.179 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 17, and 15 [3][4] - The projected revenue growth rates for the next few years are 20.1% for 2025, 18.5% for 2026, and 16.7% for 2027 [4][3] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its international production capacity, with a new factory in Mexico set to open in April 2024, which is expected to enhance its competitive position [2] - A new wholly-owned subsidiary has been established to focus on the production of electric heating vulcanizing machines, which are anticipated to have significant energy-saving advantages over traditional methods [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][17] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.813 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.99%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.011 billion yuan, up 24.77% year-on-year [1][3][11] - The three main business segments, tire molds, large component machinery products, and machine tools, all showed strong performance, contributing to the overall growth [1][2][3] - The company has established a wholly-owned subsidiary focused on the production of electric heating vulcanizing machines, which are expected to have significant development potential [2][3] Revenue and Profitability - The revenue for the tire equipment, large component machinery, and CNC machine tool segments were 4.917 billion, 3.332 billion, and 399 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.39%, 20.31%, and 29.30% [2] - The gross margin for 2024 was 34.30%, with a slight decrease of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 22.85%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points [1][3] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.358 billion, 2.757 billion, and 3.179 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 17, and 15 [3][4] - The expected revenue growth rates for the next few years are 20.1% in 2025, 18.5% in 2026, and 16.7% in 2027 [4][15] Market Position - The company is recognized as a global leader in tire mold production, with a continuously increasing market share in this segment [3][4] - The demand for large components is benefiting from trends in artificial intelligence, while the machine tool business is maintaining a high growth rate [3][4]