证券研究报告 | 2025年12月23日 云图控股（002539.SZ） 磷酸铁景气度有望回升，硫铁矿制酸优势突出 |  | 公司研究·公司快评 | |  | 基础化工·农化制品 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 证券分析师： | 董丙旭 | 0755-81982570 | | dongbingxu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090002 | 事项： 近期磷酸铁厂家纷纷提价，截止 2025 年 12 月 19 日，据百川盈孚，磷酸铁市场均价为 10830 元/吨，同比 上涨 3.14%；2025 年 12 月 19 日，国内固态硫磺现货价为 3950 元/吨，同比去年上涨 157.32%，硫铁矿市 场均价为 1024 元/吨，同比去年上涨 55.86%，硫铁矿制酸工艺优势明显。 国信化工观点：1）在锂电行业需求高增背景下，磷酸铁景气 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 2025年12月23日 制造成长周报（第 39 期） 优于大市 何小鹏称人形机器人是巨头竞争，持续关注 AI 基建燃机及液 冷投资机会 重点事件点评&重点关注：人形机器人、AI 基建 事件 1-何小鹏：人形机器人将是巨头的竞争：2025 年 12 月 17 日，小鹏汽 车 CEO 何小鹏在微博发文称，人形机器人将来会是巨头的竞争，而不同的专 用机器人则会有大量不同领域的选手，且会有非常多的成功机会。 事件 2-万泽航空荣获广瀚燃机"金牌供应商"称号：2025 年 12 月 19 日， 万泽航空在广瀚燃机年度供应商评价中荣获"金牌供应商"称号。 AI 基建-燃机点评：以万泽股份、应流股份为代表的企业卡位核心，在燃气 轮机客户的认可度持续提升，未来有望显著受益于数据中心缺电带来的发展 机遇。我们认为 AI 算力仍然是需求确定性高增长的投资主线，持续看好 AI 基建相关产业链，电力将逐渐成为 AI 发展瓶颈环节，需重点把握 AI 缺电相 关投资机遇。燃气轮机作为海外数据中心主用电源与备用电源将深度受 益 AI 数据中心供电需求，GEV 超预期上修燃机订单与扩产也表明行业是 ...

Macro and Strategy - Silver prices have reached historical highs, driven by its dual industrial and financial attributes, with over 60% of silver used in industrial applications as of December 2025 [6][7] - The recent surge in silver prices was triggered by significant physical deliveries at the New York COMEX, with registered inventories dropping over 70% from their peak in 2020 [6] - Long-term demand for silver is expected to grow due to industrial applications in solar energy, AI, and electric vehicles, alongside continued global monetary easing [6] Industry and Company - The agricultural sector is witnessing a bullish trend in livestock prices, particularly for beef and milk, with expectations of a cyclical recovery in the meat and dairy markets [24][26] - The price of live pigs has increased to 11.57 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 2.03%, while beef prices are also on an upward trajectory [24][26] - The media and internet industry has shown resilience, with a 0.54% increase in the sector, outperforming major indices, driven by upcoming IPOs and strong box office performances from films like "Avatar 3" [27][28] - The copper industry is facing a significant shift as long-term processing fees for copper concentrate have been set to zero, indicating a potential improvement in the industry structure [31] - The home appliance sector is experiencing a downturn, with retail sales down 19% year-on-year in November, although there are signs of recovery in exports for certain categories like refrigerators and washing machines [32][33]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 医药生物周报（25 年第 49 周） 优于大市 政策端支持服务消费力度提升，关注医疗服务相关机会 本周医药板块表现弱于整体市场，化学制药跌幅居前。本周全部 A 股下 跌 0.07%（总市值加权平均），沪深 300 下跌 0.28%，中小板指下跌 0.80%，创业板指下跌 2.26%，生物医药板块整体下跌 0.14%，生物医 药板块表现弱于整体市场。分子板块来看，化学制药下跌 1.74%，生物 制品下跌 0.67%，医疗服务上涨 0.55%，医疗器械上涨 1.16%，医药商 业上涨 4.94%，中药上涨 0.17%。医药生物市盈率（TTM）37.07x，处 于近 5 年历史估值的 79.04%分位数。 近两年我国密集出台支持服务消费的政策，围绕"稳增长、扩内需、提 质量"，持续释放服务消费潜力。政策一方面从供给侧入手，通过扩大 和优化服务供给、放宽准入、提升服务质量与效率，推动医疗、养老、 文旅等重点领域升级；另一方面通过财政、金融和价格等工具，加大对 居民消费和服务业主体的支持，降低成本、激发需求。在此背景下，"犒 赏经济"成为新亮点，居民在满足基本需求后，更愿为健康 ...

- The report discusses the market performance on December 22, 2025, highlighting that most indices were in an upward trend, with the CSI 500 Index performing particularly well among scale indices, and the ChiNext Index performing well among sector indices[2][7] - The market sentiment was high, with 104 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 8 stocks hitting the daily limit down at the close of trading[2][14] - The financing balance as of December 19, 2025, was 24,871 billion yuan, and the securities lending balance was 167 billion yuan, with the total margin balance accounting for 2.6% of the market's circulating market value[2][20][23] - The report also provides data on ETF premiums and discounts, noting that the Sci-Tech Growth ETF from Southern Fund had the highest premium at 1.49%, while the Creation 50 ETF from ICBC had the highest discount at 0.51% on December 19, 2025[3][24][26] - The report includes information on block trading, indicating that the average daily transaction amount of block trades in the past six months was 2.1 billion yuan, with a discount rate of 5.21% on December 19, 2025[3][27][29] - The annualized discount rates for the main contracts of stock index futures for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were 0.27%, 4.53%, 8.15%, and 12.34%, respectively, on December 22, 2025[3][29][32] - The report lists the top stocks in terms of net inflow and outflow from institutional seats and Northbound funds, with Sannong Seed Industry, Snowman Group, and Aisen Co., Ltd. among the top net inflow stocks[4][37][38]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 金融工程日报 沪指四连阳重上 3900 点，海南自贸港概念持续发酵 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20251222 大部分指数处于上涨状态，规模指数中中证 500 指数 表现较好，板块指数中创业板指表现较好，风格指数中中证 500 成长指数表 现较好。通信、有色金属、电子、消费者服务、综合金融行业表现较好，传 媒、银行、纺织服装、轻工制造、电力公用事业行业表现较差。海南自贸港、 海航系、钨矿、半导体设备、光通信等概念表现较好，SPD、降落伞、家纺、 银行精选、胶原蛋白等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20251222 市场情绪较为高涨，收盘时有 104 只股票涨停，有 8 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票今日收盘收益为 2.28%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘 收益为 1.06%。今日封板率 71%，较前日下降 2%，连板率 25%，较前日 下降 2%。 市场资金流向：截至 20251219 两融余额为 25038 亿元，其中融资余额 24871 亿元，融券余额 167 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融 交易占市场成交额比重为 10.1%。 折溢价：20251219 当日 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - The benchmark processing fee for copper concentrate long-term contracts has been set to zero for 2026, down from $21.25 per ton in 2025, indicating a significant shift in the copper smelting industry dynamics [3][4]. - The reduction to zero processing fees is attributed to a mismatch in supply and demand between copper mines and smelting, as well as historically high levels of by-product and recovery rate revenues [3][8]. - The competitive advantage of Chinese copper smelting plants is highlighted by their leading technology and cost control, which is expected to improve the industry landscape as capacity control measures are likely to be implemented [21]. Summary by Sections Processing Fees and Market Dynamics - The processing fee for copper concentrate long-term contracts has dropped to $0 per ton for 2026, compared to $21.25 per ton in 2025, reflecting a challenging negotiation environment this year [3][4]. - The long-term contract processing fee is crucial for smelting profitability, with many large smelting plants seeing a decline in the proportion of long-term contracts due to tight copper concentrate supply [6][8]. Recovery Rates and By-Product Revenues - The recovery rate for copper smelting in China is significantly higher than the industry standard, leading to additional revenue from copper prices [8][9]. - Sulfuric acid by-product revenues have surged, with current prices nearing historical highs, contributing to the overall profitability of smelting operations [8][9]. Industry Outlook and Recommendations - The zero processing fee scenario is expected to prompt regulatory measures to control copper smelting capacity, potentially leading to a more favorable industry structure [13][21]. - Key companies in the copper smelting sector include Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper, which are well-positioned to benefit from these industry changes [21][16][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, after the release of November economic data, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in China was prominent, with both production and consumption continuing to decline, but prices showed signs of improvement. The bond market first declined and then rose, showing a small V-shaped trend, slightly warming up throughout the week, and the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowed slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][11][4]. - The current bond market is more likely to fluctuate. On one hand, the economic stabilization since the fourth quarter of last year mainly comes from the support of central government leveraging. Considering that there is no additional issuance of Treasury bonds in the fourth quarter of this year, it is expected that the financing growth rate of government bonds will decline rapidly in the fourth quarter, and the domestic economy will still be under pressure. On the other hand, the absolute level of interest rates is low, the market is desensitized to positive factors, and investors' sentiment is generally weak [2][3][12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of November economic data, the domestic bond market showed a small V - shaped trend and slightly warmed up, with the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowing slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but was still very active. The term spread flattened, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][11][4] Weekly Review - Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury bonds**: As of December 19, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 41BP, at a relatively low historical level. The economic downward pressure in November continued to increase, with the estimated GDP growth rate in October at about 4.1%, a decline of 0.1% from October. The deflation risk has been alleviated. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level recently [2][12] - **20 - year CDB bonds**: As of December 19, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year Treasury bonds was 17BP, at an extremely low historical position. Similar to the situation of 30 - year Treasury bonds, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [3][13] Weekly Review - Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.3 trillion. As of November 30, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years was 243,416 billion, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety accounts for the highest proportion [14] Primary Market - Weekly Issuance - The issuance volume of ultra - long bonds dropped sharply last week (December 15 - 19, 2025), with a total issuance of 207 billion yuan. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance volume decreased significantly. By variety, local government bonds accounted for the largest share. By term, 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance volume [19] Primary Market - This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week is 12 billion yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [25] Secondary Market - Trading Volume - The trading of ultra - long bonds was very active last week, with a trading volume of 12,302 billion yuan, accounting for 14.1% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity decreased slightly. The trading volume of ultra - long Treasury bonds increased, while that of ultra - long local bonds decreased [27] Secondary Market - Yield - After the release of November economic data, the bond market showed a small V - shaped trend and slightly warmed up, with the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowing slightly. The yields of different - term Treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds changed to varying degrees [38] Secondary Market - Spread Analysis - **Term spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened last week, and the absolute level was low. The 30 - year - 10 - year Treasury spread was 41BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 22% quantile since 2010 [48] - **Variety spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes last week, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20 - year CDB bonds and Treasury bonds, and between 20 - year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 17BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 2BP and - 2BP compared with the previous week, at the 14% and 15% quantiles since 2010 [50] 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2603 of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 112.66 yuan, with a 0.00% increase. The total trading volume was 658,100 lots (- 26,189 lots), and the open interest was 141,900 lots (- 718 lots). The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased slightly [55]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, after the release of November economic data, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in China was prominent, with both production and consumption continuing to decline, but prices showed signs of improvement. The bond market first declined and then rose, showing a small V-shaped trend, slightly recovering throughout the week, and the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowed slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][4][11][38]. - As of December 19, the spread between 30 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 41BP, at a historically low level. The spread between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and 20 - year Treasury bonds was 17BP, at a historically extremely low position. The current bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The 30 - 10 spread冲高 slightly declined this week, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future. The variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds is also expected to fluctuate narrowly [2][3][12][13]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of November economic data last week, the bond market first declined and then rose, slightly recovering throughout the week, with the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowing slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][4][11]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of December 19, the spread was 41BP, at a historically low level. In November, the economic downward pressure continued to increase. The estimated GDP growth rate in October was about 4.1% year - on - year, a 0.1% decline from October. The deflation risk was alleviated. The bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future [2][12]. - **20 - year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of December 19, the spread was 17BP, at a historically extremely low position. The economic situation and bond market analysis are similar to those of 30 - year Treasury bonds. The variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.3 trillion. As of November 30, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of more than 14 years was 24,341.6 billion, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds were the main varieties. The 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (December 15 - 19, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds dropped sharply, with a total of 207 million yuan issued. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance decreased significantly. In terms of varieties, local government bonds accounted for the majority. In terms of terms, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds were issued [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week is 120 million yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 123.02 billion yuan, accounting for 14.1% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity decreased slightly. The trading volume and proportion of different varieties changed differently [27]. Yield - After the release of November economic data last week, the bond market showed a small V - shaped trend. The 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowed slightly. The yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to different extents [38]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, with an absolute low level. The 30 - year - 10 - year Treasury spread was 41BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 22% quantile since 2010 [48]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes, with an absolute low level. The spreads between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, and between 20 - year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 17BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 2BP and - 2BP from the previous week, at the 14% and 15% quantiles since 2010 [50]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year Treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 112.66 yuan, with a 0.00% increase. The total trading volume was 658,100 lots (- 26,189 lots), and the open interest was 141,900 lots (- 718 lots). The trading volume decreased slightly compared with the previous week, and the open interest decreased slightly [55].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 铜行业快评 铜精矿长单加工费基准降为零，促使冶炼行业"反内卷" | 行业研究·行业快评  | | | 有色金属  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 刘孟峦 | 010-88005312 | liumengluan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040001 | | 证券分析师： | 焦方冉 | 021-60933177 | jiaofangran@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522080003 | 事项： 12 月 19 日左右，智利矿业公司安托法加斯塔和国内某头部铜冶炼厂达成协议，将 2026 年铜精矿加工精炼 费用 Benchmark 分别定为 0 美元/吨和 0 美分/磅，低于 2025 年的 21.25 美元/吨和 2.125 美分/磅。 国信金属观点：长单加工费降为零，除了铜矿-铜冶炼供需错配，还因为副产品和回收率收益都处于历史 最好水平。中国铜冶炼厂工艺水平、成本控制全球领先，副产品消纳顺畅，在铜冶炼低迷期竞争 ...