证券研究报告 | 2026年01月06日 银行理财 2026 年 1 月月报 优于大市 2026：理财产品如何稳净值 年底收官，考虑到季末回表效应，理财行业规模小幅收缩，但同比已创历史 新高。根据普益数据，12 月末理财产品存量规模 31.6 万亿元，环比上 月减少 0.1 万亿元；结合同业交流口径，银行理财规模维持在 33 万亿 元左右，较 24 年底增长约 3 万亿元，同比增长 10%。2025 年银行理财 规模创历史新高，核心受益于低利率环境下，居民财富再配置带来的理 财需求扩张。 2026 年银行净值化转型深入，低风险偏好资金与净值波动之间的矛盾倒逼 理财公司加快创新步伐。随着估值整改全面落地，理财公司不得再使用传 统平滑估值等"估值魔法"，债市波动将更直接传导至产品净值；同时 估计银行体系约有 30 万亿元高息定期存款集中到期，居民财富再配置 亟须新的财富管理出口。面对风险偏好较低的理财客户，如何实现净值 稳定成为理财行业共同挑战，下一阶段银行理财针对"如何稳定净 值"，未来可能探索以下手法： 一是继续探索估值创新，尤其借力三方机构平滑波动。随着监管要求理财 公司全面采用中债、中证等机构提供的当日估 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月06日 市场资金流向：截至 20260105 两融余额为 25606 亿元，其中融资余额 25434 亿元，融券余额 172 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融 交易占市场成交额比重为 11.4%。 折溢价：20260105 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是银行 AH 优选 ETF，ETF 折价 较多的是沪港深 300ETF。近半年以来大宗交易日均成交金额达到 22 亿元， 20260105 当日大宗交易成交金额为 26 亿元，近半年以来平均折价率 6.66%，当日折价率为 9.01%。近一年以来上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、 中证 1000 股指期货主力合约的年化贴水率中位数分别为 0.85%、3.79%、 11.15%、13.61%，当日上证 50 股指期货主力合约年化升水率为 0.51%， 处于近一年来 75%分位点，当日沪深 300 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 1.41%，处于近一年来 76%分位点；当日中证 500 股指期货主力合约年化贴 水率为 1.89%，处于近一年来 96%分位点；当日中证 1000 股指期货主力合 约年化贴水率为 6.93% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the commercial aerospace industry [1]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is transitioning from a "state-led" Old Space model to a "private-led, cost-first" New Space model, driven by a shift from cost-plus to fixed-price contracts, which compels companies to innovate and reduce costs [3][22]. - The report identifies 2024-2025 as a critical inflection point for China's commercial aerospace market, with significant developments such as the launch of national and commercial satellite constellations [3][36]. - Four key technological convergences are driving a "cost revolution" in the industry, including advancements in launch vehicle reusability, next-generation fuels, industrialized manufacturing processes, and the use of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) components [4][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The commercial aerospace industry is experiencing explosive growth due to supportive policies and technological convergence [8]. - The shift from traditional aerospace to commercial aerospace is marked by a fundamental restructuring of business models and production relationships [10][17]. 2. Policy and Market Dynamics - The report highlights a favorable policy environment for commercial aerospace in China, with significant government support and a projected demand for approximately 8,750 tons of launch capacity from 2026 to 2030, translating to a market worth thousands of billions [4][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of low-cost launch capabilities and the maturity of reusable rockets as critical factors for market growth [4][36]. 3. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on high-barrier, high-elasticity segments of the industry, such as rocket engines, satellite manufacturing, and downstream applications [4][36]. - Key areas of investment include engine materials, satellite payloads, and consumer-grade components that are expected to see significant demand growth [4][36]. 4. Industry Trends and Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is characterized by a bipolar structure between the US and China, with the industry moving towards maturity [6]. - The report notes that the US commercial space sector, led by companies like SpaceX, is dominating the market, while China's commercial space sector is rapidly evolving [35][38]. 5. Technological Innovations - The report identifies significant technological breakthroughs in reusability, manufacturing processes, and the use of advanced materials as key drivers of cost reduction in the industry [30][32]. - The transition to liquid oxygen-methane as a preferred fuel and the adoption of 3D printing technologies are highlighted as pivotal advancements [30][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The distinction between content communities and information distribution platforms is crucial, as the method of content distribution influences platform type. Early content supply was limited, leading to high creator influence on platforms like Bilibili and Xiaohongshu, while ByteDance's algorithm-driven platforms like Douyin have a higher platform influence due to abundant content supply [3][14] - The community's path to diversification includes horizontal expansion into information distribution platforms or vertical integration into cultural brands. Bilibili and Xiaohongshu are expected to grow their daily active users (DAU) from 120 million in Q3 2025 to 200 million and 300 million, respectively, over the next 5-7 years [3][42] - Monetization strategies differ: information distribution platforms rely on advertising, while communities utilize various methods including value-added services. Xiaohongshu's advertising revenue could reach 200 billion by 2030, representing a fourfold growth potential, while Bilibili's advertising revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 19% over the next three years, reaching 16.8 billion by 2028 [4][63] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report outlines the differences between information distribution platforms, content communities, and social platforms, emphasizing the role of user relationships in content distribution [44] 2. Community Diversification Path - The report discusses the horizontal diversification into information distribution platforms or vertical integration into cultural brands, highlighting the competitive landscape between Bilibili, Xiaohongshu, and Douyin [3][42] 3. Community Monetization Methods - Monetization methods are categorized into "broad content + advertising" or "niche content + subscriptions." The report details how Xiaohongshu's advertising revenue could significantly increase, while Bilibili focuses on niche content monetization through value-added services and gaming [4][63] 4. Impact of AI on Community Ecosystem - AI technology is noted to empower companies with weaker infrastructure, enhancing content production efficiency and improving content matching and monetization capabilities [5] 10. Industry Situation - The report highlights the slow growth of content communities, with Bilibili and Xiaohongshu facing challenges in user base expansion compared to Douyin, which has a broader reach [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The distinction between content communities and information distribution platforms is crucial, as the method of content distribution influences platform types. Early content supply was limited, leading to high creator influence on platforms like Bilibili and Xiaohongshu, while ByteDance's algorithm-driven platforms like Douyin have a higher platform influence due to abundant content supply [3][14] - The community's path to diversification includes horizontal expansion into information distribution platforms or vertical integration into cultural brands. Bilibili and Xiaohongshu are expected to grow their daily active users (DAU) from 120 million in Q3 2025 to 200 million and 300 million, respectively, over the next 5-7 years [3][42] - Monetization strategies differ: information distribution platforms rely on advertising, while communities utilize various methods including value-added services. Xiaohongshu's advertising revenue could reach 200 billion by 2030, representing a fourfold growth potential, while Bilibili's advertising revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 19% over the next three years, reaching 16.8 billion by 2028 [4][63] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report discusses the differences between information distribution platforms, content communities, and social platforms, emphasizing the role of user relationships in content distribution [8][44] 2. Community Diversification Path - The report outlines two evolution paths: Douyin transitioned from a short video community to an information distribution platform, while Bilibili aims to become a cultural brand company focusing on niche markets [7][34] 3. Community Monetization Methods - Monetization methods include "broad content + advertising" for information distribution platforms and "vertical content + subscriptions" for communities. Xiaohongshu's advertising revenue is expected to grow significantly, while Bilibili focuses on vertical integration and value-added services [4][63] 4. Impact of AI on Community Ecosystem - AI technology significantly empowers content communities by lowering content creation costs and enhancing content matching efficiency, which improves monetization capabilities [5] 10. Industry Situation - The report notes that content communities have smaller user bases and slower growth compared to information distribution platforms, with Douyin covering a broader audience [10][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][16]. Core Views - The adjustment of water prices in Zhongshan is expected to enhance the company's performance, with the new pricing mechanism set to take effect on February 1, 2026, leading to an estimated increase in comprehensive water prices by 23%-26% [4][5]. - The company has an indirect stake in Changxin Technology, which has received approval for its IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, potentially enhancing the company's intrinsic value [7][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Water Price Adjustment - The new water pricing mechanism in Zhongshan will increase the comprehensive water price from 1.73 RMB per cubic meter to approximately 2.14-2.18 RMB per cubic meter, representing a 23%-26% increase [5][6]. - Specific adjustments include residential water prices in the public water service area rising to 1.88 RMB per cubic meter and non-residential water prices to 2.45 RMB per cubic meter [5][6]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.11 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 18.11%, with a significant growth in investment income driven by Guangfa Securities [12][13]. - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been slightly adjusted upwards, with expected figures of 15.18 billion RMB, 16.86 billion RMB, and 18.47 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 11%, and 10% respectively [16]. Investment in Changxin Technology - The company holds an indirect stake of approximately 0.02% in Changxin Technology through its investment fund, which is expected to support the company's intrinsic value as Changxin Technology aims to raise 29.5 billion RMB in its IPO [7][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the brain-computer interface (BCI) industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The BCI industry is at a critical juncture of transitioning from technological breakthroughs to commercialization, driven by policies, technology advancements, and application scenarios. The global market is expected to experience explosive growth due to favorable policies, production expectations from companies like Neuralink, and clinical breakthroughs in China [3] - The report emphasizes focusing on core segments of the industry chain and technology routes, prioritizing companies with competitive advantages. Upstream, attention should be on hardware suppliers like EEG sensors and core chips; midstream, companies with key patents and clinical resources, especially in invasive technologies; and downstream, tracking companies that form commercial closed loops in rehabilitation and industrial control [3] Summary by Sections 1. Definition and Classification of BCI - BCI is defined as a direct communication link between brain electrical activity and external devices, used for reading or writing neural signals. It is categorized into invasive, semi-invasive, non-invasive, and interventional types [12][10] 2. Relevant Policies - The BCI industry is increasingly recognized in China, with policies like the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of the BCI Industry" issued in July 2025, indicating a strategic focus on BCI as a national emerging industry [19][20] 3. Industry Overview - The BCI industry is transitioning from clinical trials to commercialization, with significant advancements in invasive BCI technologies led by companies like Neuralink. The report highlights the rapid development of non-invasive BCIs due to algorithm improvements and data accumulation [26][34] 4. Relevant Companies - Key players in the invasive BCI sector include Neuralink, which has conducted clinical trials and aims to decode language intentions by 2025. Other notable companies include Precision Neuroscience and Synchron, which are also making strides in the BCI field [46][49] 5. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies investment opportunities in companies that are developing BCI technologies across various applications, including rehabilitation, consumer electronics, and industrial safety. The focus is on companies that can navigate the regulatory landscape and demonstrate clinical efficacy [32][48]

Group 1: Internet Industry and AI - The report highlights the rapid development of AI models, with OpenAI leading the acceleration in 2023, benefiting Microsoft through exclusive partnerships, resulting in significant valuation increases [11][12] - In 2024, the market is expected to underestimate the progress of AI models, shifting focus towards reasoning capabilities, with companies like Meta leveraging their social ecosystem for potential growth [11][12] - By 2025, the gap between AI models and OpenAI is expected to narrow, with Google catching up due to its ecosystem advantages, while the demand for model inference is anticipated to surge [11][12][13] Group 2: Mechanical Industry and AI Infrastructure - SoftBank completed a $40 billion investment in OpenAI, indicating strong capital flow into AI infrastructure, which is expected to drive demand in related industries [17][18] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the gas turbine and liquid cooling sectors, with companies like 博盈特焊 positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for AI data centers [18][19] - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a long-term investment opportunity, with companies like 蓝箭航天 preparing for IPOs, reflecting the industry's growth trajectory [17][19] Group 3: Guizhou Moutai - Guizhou Moutai is actively pursuing market-oriented reforms to address supply-demand mismatches, with initiatives aimed at enhancing product structure and pricing strategies [23] - The company anticipates stable performance during the Spring Festival sales period, with a projected revenue growth of 5.3% for 2025, supported by improved distributor profitability [23] - Long-term, the market-oriented reforms are expected to strengthen consumer engagement and maintain the company's competitive edge in production and brand value [23] Group 4: 博盈特焊 (Boyin Welding) - 博盈特焊 is recognized as a leading enterprise in overlay welding equipment, with a focus on expanding overseas markets and new business lines [24][25] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising demand for heat recovery steam generators (HRSG) and oil and gas composite pipes, with significant growth expected in these sectors [24][25][26] - The report forecasts a cumulative demand for HRSG in overseas markets to reach approximately 500-800 billion yuan over the next 3-5 years, driven by the AI industry's growth and the gas turbine sector's upcycle [25][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term bond market is more likely to fluctuate. For 30 - year treasury bonds and 20 - year CDB bonds, considering factors such as economic pressure in Q4 2026, the central government's emphasis on high - quality development, low interest rates, market desensitization to positive factors, and large selling pressure in treasury bond futures, the bond market is expected to fluctuate. The 30 - 10 spread of 30 - year treasury bonds is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [2][3]. - Last week, long - term bonds tumbled again. The yield of long - term varieties increased due to the mention of expanding fiscal expenditure at the fiscal work conference and the rebound of the manufacturing PMI in December. The trading activity of long - term bonds changed little but was very active. The term spread widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Long - term Bond Review - Last week, long - term bonds tumbled again. The yield of long - term varieties increased as the fiscal work conference mentioned expanding fiscal expenditure and the manufacturing PMI in December rebounded 0.9 to 50.1, returning to the boom - bust line for the first time since April. In terms of trading, the trading activity of long - term bonds changed little but was very active. The term spread widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][4]. Long - term Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of December 31, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 40BP, at a historically low level. In November, the economic downward pressure continued to increase, with the estimated GDP growth rate of about 4.1%, a 0.1% decline from October. The deflation risk eased with CPI at 0.7% and PPI at - 2.2%. The bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The economic stabilization since Q4 last year was mainly due to central government leverage. Without additional treasury bond issuance in Q4 2026, the government bond financing growth rate is expected to decline rapidly, and the economy will still face pressure. The central government attaches more importance to high - quality development in 2026. Also, the absolute level of interest rates is low, the market is desensitized to positive factors, and the selling pressure of treasury bond futures is large. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of December 31, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 16BP, at a historically extremely low level. The economic situation in November was similar to that of 30 - year treasury bonds. The bond market is more likely to fluctuate. Considering the short - term bond market fluctuation, the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3]. Long - term Bond Basic Overview - The balance of long - term bonds is 24.4 trillion. As of December 31, long - term bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years totaled 244,329 billion, accounting for 15.1% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 28.2%, local government bonds 66.4%, etc. By remaining term, the 25 - 35 - year variety accounted for the highest proportion at 40.2% [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, there was no issuance of long - term bonds. Compared with the week before last, the total issuance volume decreased significantly. By variety and term, the issuance volume was all 0 [18]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced long - term bond issuance plan this week totals 929 billion, all of which are long - term local government bonds [20]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of long - term bonds was very active, with a turnover of 4,075 billion, accounting for 11.1% of all bonds. By variety, the turnover and proportion of different types of long - term bonds are as follows: long - term treasury bonds accounted for 35.1% of all treasury bonds, long - term local bonds 50.1% of all local bonds, etc. The trading activity decreased. Compared with the week before last, the turnover and proportion of long - term bonds changed: the turnover decreased by 1,607 billion, and the proportion decreased by 1.0%. The turnover and proportion of different types of long - term bonds also changed accordingly [23]. Yield - Last week, long - term bonds tumbled again. The yield of long - term varieties increased. For treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 2BP, 4BP, 4BP, and 4BP to 2.14%, 2.25%, 2.27%, and 2.48% respectively. Similar changes occurred in CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds. For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 25 extra - long special treasury bond 02 changed by 4.35BP to 2.26%, and the yield of the 20 - year CDB bond active bond 21 CDB 20 changed by 5BP to 2.32% [32][37]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of long - term bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 40BP, a 2BP change from the week before last, at the 27% quantile since 2010 [43]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of long - term bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between the benchmark 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds, and 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds were 16BP and 16BP respectively, with changes of 0BP and - 4BP from the week before last, at the 13% and 11% quantiles since 2010 [44]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main variety of 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 111.41 yuan, a decrease of 1.37%. The total trading volume was 343,900 lots (- 216,035 lots), and the open interest was 142,100 lots (- 2,500 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest decreased slightly [48].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry report is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - MiniMax is a global large model company that has served over 200 countries and regions, with more than 200 million individual users and over 100,000 enterprise clients. The company's overseas revenue accounts for 73%, with significant contributions from Singapore and the United States [2][4] - The company has a strong focus on AI applications, particularly in video and audio, positioning itself in the first tier globally. MiniMax has launched the first MoE (Mixture of Experts) large model in China and is prioritizing multimodal integration in its strategy [2][3] - MiniMax's revenue has seen significant growth, with a 175% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first nine months of 2025, driven primarily by its AI video and open platform products [2][20] Summary by Sections Company Overview - MiniMax was established at the end of 2021 and has rapidly expanded its services globally, leveraging technology innovation, efficient operations, and a global strategy [6][14] - The company has a diverse product portfolio, including AI video generation (Hailuo AI), AI companionship (Talkie), and an open platform for API services, which contribute significantly to its revenue [15][20] Financial Performance - In 2024, MiniMax's revenue was $30.52 million, and in the first nine months of 2025, it reached $53.44 million, marking a 175% increase year-on-year. The revenue contributions from the open platform, Hailuo AI, and Talkie are 29%, 33%, and 35%, respectively [20] - The gross margin turned positive in 2024, and by the first nine months of 2025, it reached 23%, with a significant reduction in net losses from $244.24 million in 2024 to $186.28 million in 2025 [20][17] Market Position - MiniMax ranks as the fourth largest pure-play large model technology company globally, with a market share of 0.3% based on 2024 revenue. The company is the only Chinese startup in the top ten [42][46] - The global large model market is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of reaching $220 billion by 2025, indicating a strong potential for MiniMax's growth in this sector [41] Product and Technology - MiniMax's AI products, particularly in video and audio, are recognized for their high performance and cost-effectiveness. The Hailuo AI video generation platform is noted for its dual-mode capabilities, enhancing its application across various scenarios [56][57] - The Speech-02 model is highlighted for its low latency and high-quality audio generation, ranking second globally in the voice model category [59][60]