证券研究报告 | 2025年12月30日 策略专题 布局核心资产正当时——中证 A500 指数投资价值分析 核心结论：①牛市上涨时空未显著、政策环境依然温暖、基本面有望回升修 复、岁末年初增量资金入市，当前正是增配 A 股的战略窗口期。②A500 指数 作为中国核心资产代表，兼顾传统及新兴产业，具备估值、盈利、分红等相 对优势，当下对其的资金配置需求有望提高。③广发中证 A500ETF 在紧密跟 踪标的指数的基础上，既能实现超越标的指数的产品业绩，在跟踪误差控制 上同样表现突出。 | 中小板/月涨跌幅(%) | | | 8264.98/4.65 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 创业板/月涨跌幅(%) | | | 3222.61/5.57 | | AH | 股价差指数 | | 123.24 | | A | 股总/流通市值 | (万亿元) | 97.52/89.58 | | 市场走势 | | | | 当前是增配 A 股的战略机遇期。展望 2026 年，宏观和股市制度依然温暖， 国内基本面有望步入上行通道，市场上涨仍有较大空间。从上涨时空看，本 轮牛市上涨时空较历史仍有空间。这一轮牛市始 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月30日 银行业投资策略 银行春季躁动布局策略：复盘与展望 | 行业研究·行业快评  | | | 银行  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田维韦 | 021-60875161 | tianweiwei@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520030002 | | 证券分析师： | 王剑 | 021-60875165 | wangjian@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980518070002 | 核心观点： 过去十年春节前银行表现复盘：银行指数胜率高达 80%以上，个股分化明显，优质股份行和城商行往往可 以跑出超额收益，国有大行表现稳健。过去十年复盘结果，申万银行指数仅在 2020 年的春节前行情中同 时没有绝对收益和超额收益，指数胜率超过 80%。31 个申万行业指数中，绝对收益和超额收益角度，申万 银行指数都是胜率都是最高的，申万银行指数历年春节前绝对收益率均值为 4.4%，超额收益率（相对上证 指数）均值为 4.9%，均处在申万行业指数首位。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the machinery equipment sector [5][11]. Core Insights - The establishment of the humanoid robot and embodied intelligence standardization technical committee by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is expected to promote standardized development in the humanoid robot industry [2][19]. - ByteDance plans to invest $23 billion (160 billion RMB) in artificial intelligence in 2026, indicating a strong commitment to AI infrastructure investment [3][20]. Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - The MIIT's new committee will focus on developing industry standards in key areas such as common technologies, components, systems, applications, and safety, which will help regulate the industry's growth [2][19]. - Long-term investment opportunities in humanoid robots are promising, with a focus on companies that are core suppliers to Tesla or have strong market positions, such as Feirongda, Longxi Co., Weiman Sealing, Hengli Hydraulic, and others [2][8]. AI Infrastructure - ByteDance's significant investment in AI infrastructure reflects ongoing commitment from major companies to expand in this area, with related industries expected to benefit [3][20]. - The report highlights the importance of gas turbines and liquid cooling technologies in AI data centers, suggesting that companies like Yingliu Co., Wanze Co., and others in the gas turbine supply chain should be closely monitored [3][8]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Several companies are rated as "Outperform," including: - Green Harmony (688017.SH) with a target price of 169.48 RMB and a market cap of 31.1 billion RMB [11][27]. - Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ) with a target price of 73.30 RMB and a market cap of 198.4 billion RMB [11][27]. - Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) with a target price of 108.61 RMB and a market cap of 145.6 billion RMB [11][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong positions in the humanoid robot and AI infrastructure sectors for potential investment opportunities [8][11].

Core Insights - The banking sector has shown a high win rate of over 80% in the ten years leading up to the Spring Festival, with significant differentiation among individual stocks, where quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks often outperform, while state-owned banks provide stable performance [2][4][19] - The Shenyin Wanguo Banking Index has the highest win rate for absolute and excess returns among 31 industry indices, with an average absolute return of 4.4% and an average excess return of 4.9% before the Spring Festival [2][4] - The favorable conditions for the banking sector before the Spring Festival in 2026 are expected to continue, driven by balanced market styles, strong demand for high-dividend stocks, and supportive policies leading to better credit performance [2][16][22] Stock Allocation Recommendations - A suggested allocation strategy is to maintain a stable core position (30% in state-owned banks) and an aggressive portfolio (70% in quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks) [3][19][22] - Key recommendations for stable state-owned banks include Bank of Communications and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, while the aggressive portfolio should focus on China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, Ningbo Bank, Changsha Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [3][19][22] Individual Stock Performance - Individual stock performance shows significant differentiation, with quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks more likely to achieve excess returns, while state-owned banks are characterized by strong defensiveness but limited elasticity [13][19] - Historical data indicates that the top-performing bank stocks before the Spring Festival include China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Changsha Bank, which frequently appear in the top gainers list [13][14] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The high win rate of the banking index before the Spring Festival is attributed to various factors, including balanced market styles, strong demand for high-dividend stocks, and effective policy measures [16][20][22] - For 2026, the expectation is that the banking sector will continue to benefit from stable growth policies, with a likely increase in credit issuance compared to the previous year, favoring banks with strong credit performance [16][22]

Group 1 - The report identifies a U-shaped evolution of ROE growth for companies in the A-share market post-IPO, with an average turning point occurring around 9.32 years after listing [1][16][22] - A systematic "three-step" screening framework is proposed to identify industries and stocks with long-term investment value, extracting a sample pool of approximately 23% from over 5000 A-shares [1][3][17] - The individual stock dimension is crucial for accurately identifying the real phase of the cycle, as industries like banking and real estate show strong clustering effects, while sectors like power equipment and pharmaceuticals require individual stock analysis for precise judgment [1][3][17] Group 2 - The first step of empirical research involves using a quadratic function to identify stocks with significant U-shaped characteristics, resulting in 1273 stocks (about 23%) being classified into potential stocks (241) and performance stocks (1032) based on their lifecycle phases [2][18][19] - In the first phase (pressure period), industries such as media, utilities, and pharmaceuticals exhibit strong defensive resilience, while in the second phase (recovery period), sectors like power equipment, electronics, and home appliances show high elasticity in ROE recovery [3][34][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of micro-level selection within industries to identify stocks that outperform their industry benchmarks, ensuring selected stocks possess both industry support and superior alpha attributes [3][17][33] Group 3 - Case studies reveal that leading stocks in the first phase include media, utilities, and pharmaceuticals, while in the second phase, power equipment, electronics, and machinery dominate in terms of upward elasticity [4][36] - The banking sector demonstrates strong value blue-chip characteristics, with 40% of its stocks in the second phase, indicating high certainty in profit recovery and operational stability [27][41] - The food and beverage industry shows significant differentiation, with white liquor stocks like Guizhou Moutai in the first phase, while mass consumer goods have entered the second phase, indicating a recovery in operational efficiency [36][39]

Core Insights - The report recommends key stocks across various industries for January 2026, highlighting potential investment opportunities based on market trends and company performance [2][3]. Industry Summaries Construction - Shenghui Integration (603163.SH) is a Taiwanese cleanroom engineering service provider and a core supplier for Google's TPU supply chain, poised to benefit from TSMC's expansion in the U.S. with potential orders from TSMC Arizona and multiple North American data centers [2]. Social Services - China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) is expected to benefit from a new cycle in domestic duty-free sales, with a boost from the upcoming consumption peak during the New Year and Spring Festival, leading to improved performance expectations [2]. Electronics - Lante Optics (688127.SH) is experiencing significant growth in its optical prism product line and is collaborating with multiple waveguide manufacturers for AR glasses, indicating strong profit elasticity and expansion potential [2]. Utilities and Environmental Protection - China General Nuclear Power (003816.SZ) is set to benefit from the normalization of nuclear power approvals and improvements in market pricing mechanisms, with expected production increases in Guangdong province [2]. Nonferrous Metals - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) is a leading player in the nonferrous sector, with high profit contributions from gold and copper, and is entering a rapid growth phase in lithium production, making it a highly valued investment opportunity for 2026 [2]. Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - Youran Dairy (9858.HK), a global leader in dairy farming, is expected to benefit from rising milk prices and beef price increases, leading to significant performance recovery [2]. Internet - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) is well-positioned for the AI era, leveraging its ecosystem advantages, with potential growth from e-commerce and AI agent capabilities not yet reflected in current profit forecasts [2]. Pharmaceuticals - WuXi AppTec (603259.SH) is supported by strong performance, order growth, and capital expenditure, with favorable regulatory changes expected to enhance the valuation of the CXO sector [2]. Light Industry - Sun Paper (002078.SZ) is entering a new capacity release phase with significant production increases expected, making it a compelling investment with reasonable valuation metrics [2]. Textiles and Apparel - Anta Sports (2020.HK) is anticipated to benefit from the performance of its premium sports brands, with a favorable valuation and upcoming catalysts from Q4 operational disclosures and the Spring Festival consumption peak [2].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 2025年12月30日 固收+系列报告之九 公募 REITs2026 年投资展望：攻守之道与价值掘金 市场复盘：自首批公募 REITs 2021 年上市以来，我国公募 REITs 一级认购 倍数呈现显著波动走势，整体波动由产品供给稀缺性、市场情绪及资产类型 收益预期共同驱动。二级市场收益表现介于沪深 300 与中证全债之间，与中 证转债的股债混合属性形成互补，不同年份收益位次因底层资产、利率、政 策及市场环境差异而显著分化。从长期特征看，REITs 波动率低于沪深 300 和中证转债，高于中证全债，且与其他资产收益相关度低，兼具债性稳定与 股性弹性，适合平衡组合波动。 机构配置：当前公募 REITs 流通盘的持有主体高度集中，机构投资者主导， 券商自营是绝对主力，占比达 51.3%；其次是保险资金（19.9%）和产业资本 （13.6%），以上三类机构投资者合计占比超 84%；私募基金（5.5%）、信托 （3.6%）、其他资管（3.7%）等占比相对较低，个人投资者、公募基金、券 商资管、银行理财的持有比例均不足 1%。不同类型公募 REITs 的流通盘持有 人结构呈现显 ...

| 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-29 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3965.27 | 13537.09 | 4639.37 | 14549.37 | 3920.98 | 1346.31 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.04 | -0.49 | -0.38 | -0.16 | -0.34 | 0.03 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 9038.19 | 12355.17 | 4826.13 | 4629.60 | 5379.66 | 584.88 | $$\overline{{{\prod_{i\in\mathbb{R}}}}}\frac{\Delta}{\Delta}\pm\overline{{{\prod_{i\in\mathbb{R}}}}}$$ (1998) (200) 宏观与策略 固 定 收 益 快 评 : 可 交 换 私 募 债 跟 踪 - 私 募 EB 每 周 跟 踪 （2025122 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints - China's public REITs have shifted from pilot projects to normal development, with a steady expansion in issuance scale and continuous enrichment of asset types in recent years. In 2025, the issuance scale declined slightly, but new "first - order" projects broadened the REITs asset landscape [13]. - Since 2021, the subscription multiples of China's public REITs have shown significant fluctuations, driven by product scarcity, market sentiment, and expected returns of asset types. The secondary - market performance of REITs is between the CSI 300 and the CSI Aggregate Bond Index, with low correlation to other assets, suitable for balancing portfolio volatility [19][27]. - The holders of the current public REITs' floating shares are highly concentrated, dominated by institutional investors. Brokerage proprietary trading is the main force, followed by insurance funds and industrial capital. Different types of REITs show significant sectoral differentiation in their holder structures [2][28]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Review: From Valuation Fluctuation to Value Return Market Characteristics and Driving Factors - The issuance scale of public REITs in 2025 decreased compared to the previous high, but new asset types emerged. The subscription multiples fluctuated significantly from 2021 - 2025, and the secondary - market performance of REITs can be divided into six stages, with different reasons for each stage's performance [13][19][21]. - As of December 19, 2025, the CSI REITs Total Return Index had a year - to - date increase of +3.2%, significantly underperforming the CSI 300 and the CSI Convertible Bond Index, only better than the CSI Aggregate Bond Index. The main reasons include the shift of funds, the narrowing of the primary - secondary market spread, and the weak fundamentals of underlying assets [22]. Institutional Allocation Preference Differences - Brokerage proprietary trading, insurance funds, and industrial capital are the main holders of public REITs' floating shares, accounting for over 84%. Brokerage proprietary trading prefers assets with high liquidity and valuation elasticity, while insurance funds focus on assets with stable long - term cash flows. Individual and mutual fund investors' participation is limited [2][28][30]. - The number of REITs products allocated by public fund FOFs has been increasing, but the growth rate has slowed down. From the first to the third quarter of 2025, the allocation strategy of FOFs changed from diversified layout to concentrated addition of high - attention products [31][36]. Fundamental Analysis: Differentiated Performance of Asset Types - **Industrial Parks**: In 2025, the rental rate and rent level of industrial park REITs showed the characteristics of "intensified differentiation and supply - demand game". High - quality science and technology parks and core - location assets showed resilience, while some traditional industrial parks faced pressure [42]. - **Warehousing and Logistics**: In 2025, the operating income of warehousing and logistics REITs mostly showed a fluctuating downward trend. The rental rate was differentiated, with core assets showing strong anti - risk ability, and the rent level generally declined [46]. - **Consumption**: In 2025, consumption REITs showed significant differentiation. The rental rate remained stable at a high level, while the rent level was differentiated. Core - area and high - quality - operation commercial assets had strong anti - risk ability [51]. - **Affordable Housing**: The affordable housing REIT market showed strong operational resilience, with most REITs maintaining a high rental rate and stable rent level, indicating strong anti - risk ability of the housing sector [54]. - **Transportation**: The core driving logic of the transportation sector is the recovery of travel demand and the improvement of asset operation efficiency. The traffic volume and toll revenue showed significant differentiation among different REITs [57]. - **Ecological and Environmental Protection**: The two listed ecological and environmental protection REITs showed good performance in the third quarter of 2025, with an increase in waste treatment volume and sewage treatment volume [61]. - **Energy**: In 2025, except for Huaxia TBEA New Energy REIT, the revenue of other energy REITs declined significantly. The photovoltaic field performed well, while the wind power field was generally sluggish [63]. - **Municipal Utilities**: The heating area and charging area of Guotai Haitong Jinan Energy Heating REIT remained basically stable in 2025, but the heat - stop rate and charging rate decreased significantly in the third quarter [67]. - **Water Conservancy**: The operating income of YinHua Shaoxing Raw Water Water Conservancy REIT increased significantly in the third quarter of 2025, mainly due to the increase in the supply of raw water [69]. - **New Infrastructure**: The two new infrastructure REITs disclosed their operating income for the first time in the third quarter of 2025, and their trusteeship service fee collection rates were 100%, laying a good foundation for subsequent operations [71]. Investment Recommendations: Structural Opportunities under Policy Dividends and Asset Differentiation Primary Market: Select Projects in a Differentiated Market - Since this year, the enthusiasm for new REIT subscriptions has declined, and some REITs have broken their issue prices after listing. The return on new subscriptions has decreased due to the weak secondary - market performance and the narrowing of the primary - secondary market spread. Different asset types have shown differentiated performance, and it is recommended to focus on high - quality projects and be cautious about long - term strategic allocations [3][75]. Secondary Market: A Dumbbell Strategy for Offense and Defense - In asset allocation, public REITs can meet the investment needs of "idle funds + long - term holding". Appropriate allocation of REITs in the investment portfolio can improve the Sharpe ratio, but the allocation ratio should be moderate [77][78]. - In the future, there will be short - term local unlocking disturbances, with a peak in the first half of 2026. It is recommended to follow the "policy dividend + high - quality assets" principle, adopt a dumbbell strategy. On one hand, explore the stable dividend value of affordable housing and municipal environmental protection assets; on the other hand, lay out new infrastructure sectors such as data centers and clean energy. Also, seize the incremental opportunities brought by expansion [3][82].

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The report highlights the significance of researching next-generation innovative drugs for resistant hypertension, with multiple new mechanism antihypertensive drugs expected to report data or achieve clinical progress in 2025 [10][11] - Key catalysts include upcoming Phase 3 clinical studies focusing on cardiovascular and renal endpoints, which are anticipated to yield data in the coming years [11] - The report suggests monitoring domestic companies involved in relevant target areas as potential investment opportunities [12] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.46% this week, with A-share food and beverage stocks underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 2.52 percentage points [13] - The report indicates a differentiation in the performance of various categories, with beverages outperforming food and alcoholic beverages [13] - Recommendations include focusing on high-quality companies in the liquor sector, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Moutai, as well as leading beer companies like Yanjing Beer, which are expected to benefit from demand recovery [14] Group 3: Chemical Industry - Rongsheng Petrochemical - Rongsheng Petrochemical is identified as a leading private refining company in China, with significant production capacities across various chemical products, including PX and PTA [15] - The report anticipates a recovery in refining profits and an increase in sulfur prices, which will contribute positively to the company's earnings [17] - Profit forecasts for Rongsheng Petrochemical indicate a substantial increase in net profit from 13.8 billion yuan in 2025 to 25.7 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 90.9% and 13.1% respectively [18] Group 4: Optical Communication - LightSpeed Technology - LightSpeed Technology is positioned as a leading player in the optical communication sector, benefiting from the growing demand for AI computing infrastructure [19][20] - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a 35.42% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 2025 [19] - The report projects revenue growth from 116.81 billion yuan in 2025 to 169.93 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise significantly [21]