Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Industry The document does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week (from December 22, 2025, to December 26, 2025), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 2.75%. Among broad - based ETFs, the CSI 500ETF had the highest return; among sector ETFs, the cyclical ETF had the highest return; among hot - topic ETFs, the new energy vehicle ETF had the highest return [1][13][59]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net subscription of 35.634 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, the A500ETF had the largest net subscription; among sector ETFs, the consumer ETF had the smallest net redemption; among theme ETFs, the pharmaceutical ETF had the largest net subscription [2][30][36][59]. - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai - PineBridge ranked top three in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs. This week, two ETFs, GF Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Chip ETF and Huabao Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Chip ETF, will be issued [5][53][59]. 3. Summary by Directory ETF Performance - The median weekly return of equity ETFs was 2.75%. The median returns of CSI 500, STAR Market, ChiNext, CSI 1000, A500, SSE 50, and SSE 500 ETFs were 4.04%, 4.00%, 3.92%, 3.78%, 2.75%, 1.96%, and 1.41% respectively. The median returns of commodity, cross - border, bond, and money - market ETFs were 3.59%, 0.16%, 0.13%, and 0.02% respectively [1][13]. - By sector, the median returns of cyclical, technology, large - finance, and consumer sector ETFs last week were 5.37%, 3.93%, 1.50%, and - 0.16% respectively. By hot - topic classification, the median returns of new energy vehicle, military, and photovoltaic ETFs were 7.17%, 5.84%, and 5.38% respectively, showing relative strength, while those of bank, liquor, and pharmaceutical ETFs were - 0.89%, - 0.79%, and - 0.16% respectively, showing relative weakness [19]. ETF Scale Changes and Net Subscriptions/Redeemptions - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross - border, and bond ETFs were 3.8155 trillion yuan, 970.1 billion yuan, and 804.6 billion yuan respectively. Among broad - based ETFs, the SSE 500 and A500ETFs had relatively large scales [21]. - By sector, the scale of the technology sector ETF was 430.5 billion yuan, followed by the cyclical sector ETF with 215.9 billion yuan. The scales of large - finance and consumer ETFs were relatively small [24]. - By hot - topic, the scales of chip, securities, and pharmaceutical ETFs were the highest, reaching 148 billion yuan, 141 billion yuan, and 101.9 billion yuan respectively [25]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net subscription of 35.634 billion yuan and a total scale increase of 132.202 billion yuan; money - market ETFs had a net redemption of 83.24 billion yuan and a total scale decrease of 83.07 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, the A500ETF had the largest net subscription of 49.322 billion yuan, and the SSE 500ETF had the largest net redemption of 58.97 billion yuan [30]. - By sector, the consumer ETF had the smallest net redemption of 580 million yuan last week, and the technology ETF had the largest net redemption of 6.453 billion yuan. By hot - topic, the pharmaceutical ETF had the largest net subscription of 408 million yuan, and the chip ETF had the largest net redemption of 6.68 billion yuan [32][33]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of the SSE 50, SSE 500, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and A500ETFs were at the 83.92%, 86.40%, 97.69%, 95.55%, 63.15%, and 97.86% quantile levels respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the 64.26%, 72.88%, 99.59%, 65.46%, 63.64%, and 97.86% quantile levels respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of the A500ETF increased significantly [37]. - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of cyclical, large - finance, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the 81.53%, 31.82%, 28.61%, and 94.39% quantile levels respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the 77.91%, 56.60%, 35.86%, and 90.52% quantile levels respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of the cyclical ETF increased significantly [38]. - Overall, among broad - based ETFs, the ChiNext - related ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles; among sectors, the consumer and large - finance ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles; among sub - themes, the liquor and new energy vehicle ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles [44]. ETF Margin Trading and Short Selling - As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs increased from 47.637 billion yuan in the previous week to 47.882 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume decreased from 2.44 billion shares in the previous week to 2.433 billion shares. Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin buying amount and short - selling volume, the STAR Market ETF and the securities ETF had relatively high average daily margin buying amounts, and the CSI 1000ETF and the SSE 500ETF had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [45][50][51]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai - PineBridge ranked top three in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs. Huaxia had high management scales in multiple sub - fields such as scale index ETFs, theme, style, and strategy index ETFs, and cross - border ETFs; E Fund had high management scales in scale index ETFs and cross - border ETFs; Huatai - PineBridge had high management scales in scale index ETFs and theme, style, and strategy index ETFs [53]. - Five new ETFs were established last week, and two ETFs, GF Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Chip ETF and Huabao Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Chip ETF, will be issued this week [56].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月26日 2025年12月27日 2025年12月28日 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。12 月 26 日，鸡苗价格 3.34 元/ 羽，周环比-0.89%；毛鸡价格 7.78 元/公斤，周环比+6.87%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。12 月 25 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 5.0/5.8/7.5 元 ， 周 环 比 分 别 +0.00%/-1.69%/+0.00%。 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏维持增长，中期供给压力较大。12 月 26 日，鸡蛋主 产区价格 2.92 元/斤，周环比-4.89%，同比-17.75%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好牛周期反转上行。12 月 26 日，国内育肥 公牛出栏价为 25.20 元/kg，环比+0.00%，同比+7.01%；牛肉市场价为 60.91 元/kg，环比-0.21%，同比+20.02%。 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（188） 优于大市 原奶价格维持低迷，奶牛存栏去化有望加速 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月28日 公募 REITs 周报（第 48 期） 市场先抑后扬，保障房领涨 核心观点 固定收益周报 主要结论：本周 REITs 市场先抑后扬，整体走强，中证 REITs 指数全周上涨 1.4%，其中保障房、产业园及仓储物流板块领涨。从主要指数周涨跌幅对比 来看，沪深 300>中证转债>中证 REITs>中证全债。截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日， 产权类 REITs 股息率比中证红利股股息率均值低 104BP，经营权类 REITs 内 部收益率均值与十年期国债收益率利差为 352BP。 中证 REITs 指数周涨跌幅为+1.4%，年初至今涨跌幅为-0.7%。截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日，中证 REITs（收盘）指数收盘价为 783.86 点，整周 （2025/12/22-2025/12/26）涨跌幅为+1.4%，表现弱于沪深300指数（+1.9%）、 中证转债指数（+1.6%），强于中证全债指数（+0.1%）。年初至今，各类主 要指数涨跌幅排序为：中证转债（+19.0%）>沪深 300（+18.4%）>中证全债 （+0.8%）>中证 REITs（-0.7%）。近 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time [4] Core Viewpoints - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities has created a new industry giant, with total assets exceeding 2.01 trillion yuan and net assets reaching 338.9 billion yuan, both ranking first in the industry [1][9] - The company has demonstrated significant financial performance, with a 101.6% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 131.8% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [2][15] - The company is focusing on deep collaboration in core businesses, leveraging its comprehensive financial service system to enhance competitive advantages [3] Company Overview - Guotai Haitong Securities was formed by the merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities in April 2025, becoming the largest A+H dual-market brokerage in China's capital market [9] - The company's ownership structure is characterized by state-owned capital dominance, with significant participation from institutional investors, ensuring stable strategic execution [10] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 458.92 billion yuan and a net profit of 220.74 billion yuan, driven by increased market activity and cost synergies [2][15] - The annualized ROE reached 8.10% by the third quarter of 2025, surpassing the industry average [2][15] Business Segments - The company has a comprehensive business layout, including securities brokerage, investment banking, asset management, and wealth management, providing a full range of financial services [16] - The asset management segment, formed by merging the asset management arms of both companies, has reached a management scale of 705.19 billion yuan, ranking second in the industry [57] Investment Banking - The investment banking business has strengthened resource integration and focused on cross-border operations, achieving a domestic securities underwriting amount of 708.18 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, ranking second in the industry [63] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see revenue growth rates of 36.0%, 12.4%, and 11.4% from 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 95.0%, -3.4%, and 12.1% respectively [71][72] - The current PB valuation is approximately 1.12 times, indicating a potential for valuation to align with industry averages due to the company's strong business and capital position [7][73]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月23日 2025年12月27日 2025年12月28日 优于大市 牧业跟踪点评 商务部对欧盟进口乳制品实施临时反补贴措施，有望提振国产 原奶替代需求 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | |  农林牧渔 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 鲁家瑞 | 021-61761016 | lujiarui@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520110002 | | 证券分析师： | 李瑞楠 | 021-60893308 | liruinan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523030001 | | 证券分析师： | 江海航 | | jianghaihang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524070003 | 事项： 商务部于 2025 年 12 月 22 日发布初裁公告，自 2025 年 12 月 23 日起，采取临时反补贴税保证金的形式对 原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品实施临时反补贴措施。 国信农业观点：1)商务部公布欧盟进口乳制品 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than the market" rating for the U.S. stock market, particularly focusing on the semiconductor sector [4]. Core Insights - The semiconductor sector has shown a strong upward trend in both fundamentals and stock prices, contributing significantly to the market's recovery [1]. - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.4%, with the semiconductor products and equipment sector rising by 4.0%, indicating robust performance compared to other sectors [1]. - There has been a notable inflow of funds into the semiconductor sector, with an estimated net inflow of $24.3 billion, highlighting investor confidence [2]. Summary by Sections 2.1 Investment Returns - The semiconductor products and equipment sector reported a weighted average price return of 4.0% this week, with a 56.2% return year-to-date [14]. 2.2 Fund Flows - The semiconductor sector experienced a net inflow of $2.433 billion this week, reflecting strong investor interest and confidence in the sector's growth potential [16]. 2.3 Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the semiconductor products and equipment sector was adjusted upward by 0.6% this week, indicating positive expectations for future performance [17]. 2.4 Valuation Levels - The report does not provide specific valuation levels for the semiconductor sector, but the overall positive trends in investment returns and earnings forecasts suggest a favorable outlook for valuations [19].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月28日 2025年12月27日 港股市场速览 优于大市 市场温和回升，概念与行业分化 主要概念指数表现分化。上涨的主要有恒生汽车（+0.6%）；下跌的主要有 恒生生物科技（-2.1%）。 股价表现：市场温和回升，概念与行业分化 本周，恒生指数+0.5%，恒生综指+0.4%。风格方面，小盘（恒生小型股+0.6%） ＞中盘（恒生中型股+0.5%）＞大盘（恒生大型股+0.4%）。 国信海外选股策略表现分化。上涨的主要有 ROE 策略全天候型/防御型 （+0.5%）；下跌的主要有红利贵族 50 和 ROE 策略进攻型（-0.8%）。 20 个行业上涨，8 个行业下跌，2 个基本持平。上涨的主要有：有色金属 （+4.4%）、建材（+2.9%）、钢铁（+2.4%）、基础化工（+2.3%）、建筑（+2.3%）； 下跌的主要有：家电（-2.5%）、医药（-1.9%）、传媒（-1.3%）、煤炭（-1.3%）、 综合（-1.2%）。 估值水平：整体小幅波动 本周，恒生指数估值（动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率，后同）-0.1%至 11.6x； 恒生综指估值+0.1%至 11.4x。 主要概念指数估 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [2][3] Core Insights - The beauty industry has entered a stable growth phase, with increasing consumer demand differentiation and intensified competition, necessitating higher operational standards for brand management [4][65] - Domestic brands, including Lin Qingxuan, have made significant progress in the high-end market, leveraging unique Chinese ingredients to create differentiated products and enhancing brand value through effective channel strategies [4][65] - Lin Qingxuan is positioned as a leading domestic high-end skincare brand, ranking 13th among all high-end skincare brands in China with a market share of 1.4% [5][26] Company Overview - Lin Qingxuan plans to officially list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 30, issuing approximately 13.97 million H shares at an offering price of HKD 77.77 per share, aiming to raise around HKD 1.086 billion [4] - The company has established a full industry chain from raw material planting to R&D, production, and sales, focusing on its core product, the Camellia Oil, which has been a market leader for 11 consecutive years [5][6] Financial Performance - In 2024, Lin Qingxuan is projected to achieve revenue of CNY 1.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50.27%, and a net profit of CNY 187 million, up 121.06% [15] - The company has maintained rapid revenue growth over the past three years, with a significant increase in profit margins, indicating strong operational efficiency [15][20] Product and Channel Strategy - The core product, Camellia Oil, has seen substantial revenue growth, contributing 46% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, with a remarkable growth rate of 176% [39] - The company has a balanced online and offline channel strategy, with online sales accounting for 65% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 137% growth [18][47] Brand Positioning and Customer Base - Lin Qingxuan has over 5.6 million active customers, with an average annual repurchase rate of 33.5%, indicating strong brand loyalty [30] - The brand is actively expanding its customer base, targeting younger consumers aged 18 to 24 through affordable yet effective skincare solutions [34] Future Growth Plans - The company plans to use the funds raised from the IPO to enhance brand marketing, upgrade supply chain capabilities, and explore overseas markets, aiming for sustainable growth and brand diversification [62][64]

2026 年通胀形势中，一个不容忽视的技术性因素值得关注：CPI（居民消费 价格指数）统计中的基期权重调整，可能对通胀读数产生上行助推作用。 这一影响根植于我国 CPI 的统计制度设计。在计算过程中，各类商品与服务 的数量在基期确定后即保持固定，不随价格变动而调整。这意味着，在实际 生活中，当某种商品价格下跌时，居民往往倾向于购买更多数量，其消费支 出占比的降幅会小于价格降幅；但在 CPI 核算中，由于数量固定，该商品在 总消费篮子的金额权重会完全跟随价格同步下降，导致其统计权重持续偏离 实际消费结构。 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月27日 宏观经济周报 当基期调整遇上价格回暖 市场走势 以 2021-2025 年周期为例，肉类等部分商品价格经历显著且持续的下跌。在 这一过程中，其在 CPI 中的权重已被系统性压低，明显低于居民实际消费占 比。进入 2026 年，随着统计基期例行更新，各分项权重将迎来修正，以反 映最新的实际消费结构。这意味着过去几年价格下跌明显的品类，其统计权 重将面临一次性的明显上调。 恰逢 2026 年政策重心强调"反内卷"与推动价格合理回升，预计部分此前 承压的商品和服务价格将趋于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "weaker than the market" rating for the U.S. stock market in 2026 [4] Core Insights - The current AI wave is compared to the late stages of the Internet bubble, indicating that it is in the 1→N phase, with the potential for significant growth in the N→N+ phase expected in the latter half of 2026 [3][4] - The report highlights that the AI industry's development is approximately one-third of the maximum extent seen during the Internet bubble, suggesting limited upside potential compared to historical peaks [3] - The analysis draws parallels between the factors that fueled the Internet bubble and the current market dynamics, emphasizing the role of financial supply and demand relationships [2][70] Summary by Sections Historical Background - The report discusses the historical context of the Internet bubble, attributing it to a combination of peace, fiscal reforms, and trade liberalization that created a favorable environment for asset inflation [11][70] - Key factors included a significant fiscal surplus post-World War II, a shift in deposit flows, and the emergence of non-bank financial institutions [1][70] Financial and Fundamental Factors - The report identifies the reversal of financial supply and demand as a direct cause of the Internet bubble's collapse, with excessive equity issuance leading to oversupply [2] - It notes that the fundamental overestimation of demand and underestimation of supply in the fiber optic market contributed to the bubble's burst [2] AI Wave Comparison - The report categorizes the AI wave into stages, likening the current phase to the late 1990s, suggesting that the AI industry is nearing the end of its initial growth phase [3] - It predicts a slowdown in growth during the first half of 2026, followed by a potential acceleration in the latter half as the industry transitions to a more mature phase [3] Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the interplay between investment expectations and the availability of financing, which has historically driven market cycles [70] - It highlights the role of external factors, such as foreign investment and trade dynamics, in shaping the financial landscape [60][70]