证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 东方电缆（603606.SH） 突破亚洲国际海底电缆大单，构筑全球产业竞争力 公司研究·公司快评 电力设备·电网设备 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 王蔚祺 010-88005313 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980520080003 证券分析师： 王晓声 010-88005231 wangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523050002 事项： 公司公告：公司及全资子公司东方海工院近期中标多个项目，包括亚洲区域海洋能源互联超高压海缆及施 工敷设 EPCI 总包项目 19 亿元，海上风电项目的工程施工、运维抢修以及脐带缆等项目 1.08 亿元等，中 标金额合计约 31.25 亿元，占公司 2024 年营业收入的 34.37%。 国信电新观点：1）公司坚持"海陆并进"，统筹推进国际、国内两大市场，重大项目的中标将为公司"十 五五"业绩增长提供夯实的基础。2）项目带来的技术沉淀与市场拓展效应，将进一步助力构建国内外市 场协同发展的良好格局，进一步提升公司的核心竞争力、市场影响力和品牌影响 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月20日 2025年12月21日 多因子选股周报 估值因子表现出色，沪深 300 增强组合年内超额收益 20.75% 核心观点 金融工程周报 国信金工指数增强组合表现跟踪 以中证 500 指数为选股空间。最近一周，预期 BP、BP、三个月机构覆盖等 因子表现较好，而 DELTAROA、单季净利同比增速、标准化预期外盈利等 因子表现较差。 以中证 1000 指数为选股空间。最近一周，预期 PEG、单季 SP、SPTTM 等因子表现较好，而一年动量、三个月反转、一个月反转等因子表现较差。 以中证 A500 指数为选股空间。最近一周，三个月换手、股息率、DELTAROE 等因子表现较好，而三个月反转、单季营收同比增速、一年动量等因子表现 较差。 以公募重仓指数为选股空间。最近一周，BP、SPTTM、预期 BP 等因子表 现较好，而一年动量、单季营收同比增速、单季净利同比增速等因子表现较 差。 公募基金指数增强产品表现跟踪 目前，公募基金沪深 300 指数增强产品共有 79 只（A、C 类算作一只，下 同），总规模合计 799 亿元。中证 500 指数增强产品共有 76 只，总规模合 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月20日 2025年12月21日 多因子选股周报 估值因子表现出色，沪深 300 增强组合年内超额收益 20.75% 核心观点 金融工程周报 国信金工指数增强组合表现跟踪 因子表现监控 以沪深 300 指数为选股空间。最近一周，DELTAROE、股息率、DELTAROA 等因子表现较好，而单季营收同比增速、一个月反转、标准化预期外收入等 因子表现较差。 以中证 500 指数为选股空间。最近一周，预期 BP、BP、三个月机构覆盖等 因子表现较好，而 DELTAROA、单季净利同比增速、标准化预期外盈利等 因子表现较差。 以中证 1000 指数为选股空间。最近一周，预期 PEG、单季 SP、SPTTM 等因子表现较好，而一年动量、三个月反转、一个月反转等因子表现较差。 以中证 A500 指数为选股空间。最近一周，三个月换手、股息率、DELTAROE 等因子表现较好，而三个月反转、单季营收同比增速、一年动量等因子表现 较差。 以公募重仓指数为选股空间。最近一周，BP、SPTTM、预期 BP 等因子表 现较好，而一年动量、单季营收同比增速、单季净利同比增速等因子表现较 差。 公募基金指 ...

食品饮料周报（25 年第 47 周） 优于大市 把握成本红利与效率提升主线，关注创新与困境反转机会 行情回顾：本周食品饮料（A 股和 H 股）累计上涨 1.97%，其中 A 股食品饮 料（申万食品饮料指数）上涨 2.01%，跑赢沪深 300 约 2.29pct；H 股食品饮 料（恒生港股通食品饮料）上涨 1.36%，跑赢恒生消费指数 1.07pct。本周 食品饮料板块涨幅前五分别为欢乐家(44.42%)、庄园牧场(35.96%)、皇氏集 团(21.16%)、均瑶健康(17.02%)和阳光乳业(14.72%)。 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月20日 2025年12月21日 品类基本面延续分化，饮料＞食品＞酒类。（1）酒类。白酒：需求仍然偏 弱，优质酒企聚焦供给端优化。当前板块进入左侧布局阶段，具备价位、区 域话语权的优质公司有望获取更大增长空间，推荐泸州老窖/山西汾酒、贵 州茅台、迎驾贡酒，也建议关注五粮液/洋河股份/舍得酒业的改革节奏。啤 酒：行业库存良性，静待需求回暖。全年啤酒龙头利润增长具备较强支撑， 建议积极布局啤酒板块，继续优先推荐大单品快速增长、内部改革持续深化、 业绩成长性强的燕京啤酒。（2） ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月20日 2025年12月21日 食品饮料周报（25 年第 47 周） 优于大市 把握成本红利与效率提升主线，关注创新与困境反转机会 行情回顾：本周食品饮料（A 股和 H 股）累计上涨 1.97%，其中 A 股食品饮 料（申万食品饮料指数）上涨 2.01%，跑赢沪深 300 约 2.29pct；H 股食品饮 料（恒生港股通食品饮料）上涨 1.36%，跑赢恒生消费指数 1.07pct。本周 食品饮料板块涨幅前五分别为欢乐家(44.42%)、庄园牧场(35.96%)、皇氏集 团(21.16%)、均瑶健康(17.02%)和阳光乳业(14.72%)。 品类基本面延续分化，饮料＞食品＞酒类。（1）酒类。白酒：需求仍然偏 弱，优质酒企聚焦供给端优化。当前板块进入左侧布局阶段，具备价位、区 域话语权的优质公司有望获取更大增长空间，推荐泸州老窖/山西汾酒、贵 州茅台、迎驾贡酒，也建议关注五粮液/洋河股份/舍得酒业的改革节奏。啤 酒：行业库存良性，静待需求回暖。全年啤酒龙头利润增长具备较强支撑， 建议积极布局啤酒板块，继续优先推荐大单品快速增长、内部改革持续深化、 业绩成长性强的燕京啤酒。（2） ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3] Core Insights - The first large-scale "CO2 + Green Hydrogen" methanol production project in China has been initiated, with a significant contract signed by Huadian Technology for the supply of core equipment, indicating a strategic opportunity in the green methanol equipment market, which is expected to exceed 10 billion annually [3][9] - By 2030, China's green methanol production capacity is projected to reach approximately 10 million tons, with an average annual increase of 2 million tons [4][7] - The investment in green methanol equipment is estimated to reach 13 billion annually from 2026 to 2030, with specific allocations for CO2 processing and methanol synthesis equipment, as well as hydrogen and storage tank investments [4][7] Summary by Sections Project Announcement - On December 19, Huadian Technology announced a major contract worth 815 million (including tax) to supply equipment for a 450,000 kW wind power hydrogen production coupled with green methanol project in Liaoning [3][5] Market Potential - The green methanol equipment market is expected to reach an annual investment of 13 billion, with specific annual investments of approximately 2.1 billion for CO2 processing and methanol synthesis equipment, and 800 million for hydrogen and storage tank equipment [4][7][8] - The annual demand for electrolyzers in the green methanol industry is projected to be 2 GW, corresponding to an annual investment of 10.1 billion for hydrogen systems and supporting facilities [4][7] Project Details - The Liaoning Huadian project is the first large-scale "Green Hydrogen + CO2" methanol production project in China, with a total investment of 3.945 billion, expected to produce 100,000 tons of green methanol and 19,000 tons of green hydrogen annually [8]

Economic Growth - In November, the domestic GDP growth rate was approximately 4.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from October, continuing the trend of moderation[1] - To achieve the annual growth target of around 5%, the GDP growth in December needs to rebound to above 5.0%, which is unlikely given the current policy focus on quality improvement rather than short-term growth[1] - The expected GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is about 4.3%, further declining from Q3, with an annual growth estimate of approximately 4.9%, remaining within the target range[1] Sector Performance - The main drag on economic growth in November came from the service sector, with the service production index's year-on-year growth rate falling by 0.4 percentage points[2] - The financial sector saw a year-on-year decline of 0.5 percentage points, while the real estate sector's investment and sales figures also worsened, contributing to the pressure on services[2] - Emerging sectors like leasing and business services showed resilience, with growth accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] Consumption and Trade - Consumer activity showed signs of weakening, with logistics delivery volume experiencing its first negative year-on-year growth of -1.3% this year[12] - The average daily box office for movies was approximately 100.4 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186%, driven by the release of popular films[18] - Export container freight rates slightly increased to 1124.73, indicating stable shipping supply and demand relationships[22] Real Estate Market - The price decline in the real estate market continued to expand, with the price index for 70 large and medium-sized cities showing increased year-on-year declines for both new and second-hand homes[48] - Despite seasonal increases in transaction volumes, the absolute levels remain low, marking the worst performance for the same period in recent years[48] - The inventory turnover pressure remains significant, with the sales-to-inventory ratio recorded at 89.1, the highest for the same period since 2019[48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock market [4] Core Insights - The overall market is experiencing a pullback driven by technology giants, with the Hang Seng Index down by 1.1% and the Hang Seng Composite Index down by 1.2% [1] - Valuation levels for most industries are declining, with the Hang Seng Index's forward P/E ratio decreasing by 1.7% to 11.6x [2] - Earnings expectations have been adjusted upwards overall, with the Hang Seng Index's EPS increasing by 0.3% compared to the previous week [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.1%, while the Hang Seng Composite Index fell by 1.2%. Mid-cap stocks outperformed small-cap and large-cap stocks [1] - Among major concept indices, the Hang Seng Consumer Index rose by 0.3%, while the Hang Seng Internet Index dropped by 2.9% [1] Valuation Levels - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.7% to 11.6x, and the Hang Seng Composite Index's valuation fell by 2.4% to 11.4x [2] - The most significant valuation increase was in the basic chemicals sector (+11.6%), while the real estate sector saw the largest decline (-19.0%) [2] Earnings Expectations - The EPS for the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.3%, and the Hang Seng Composite Index's EPS rose by 1.2% compared to the previous week [3] - The real estate sector saw a substantial EPS upward revision of 20.5%, while the basic chemicals sector experienced a downward revision of 10.2% [3]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 2025年12月20日 美股市场速览 弱于大市 半导体业绩上修带动市场回升 资金流向：整体小幅回流，结构偏向科技 本周，标普 500 成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为+67.4（亿美元， 下同），上周为-72.0，近 4 周为+281.5，近 13 周为+116.0。 9 个行业资金流入，15 个行业资金流出。资金流入的主要有：半导体产品与 设备（+42.8）、汽车与汽车零部件（+23.6）、软件与服务（+9.4）、技术 硬件与设备（+7.9）、消费者服务（+7.4）；资金流出的主要有：耐用消费 品与服装（-9.8）、食品饮料与烟草（-4.5）、能源（-3.9）、公用事业（-2.6）、 综合金融（-2.3）。 价格走势：科技巨头带动市场回升 盈利预测：半导体带动大盘显著上修 本周，标普 500 涨 0.1%，纳斯达克涨 0.5%。 风格：大盘成长（罗素 1000 成长+0.5%）＞大盘价值（罗素 1000 价值-0.5%） ＞小盘成长（罗素 2000 成长-0.7%）＞小盘价值（罗素 2000 价值-1.0%）。 9 个行业上涨，15 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the internet securities industry [4]. Core Insights - The internet securities industry is transitioning from a traditional, homogeneous channel service model to a customer-centric, comprehensive service ecosystem by 2025, driving industry innovation [1]. - Traditional brokerage services are facing challenges due to a significant decline in average commission rates, leading to a "prisoner's dilemma" in the commission war, where increased competition results in reduced profitability [12]. - Successful internet brokers exhibit core capabilities such as traffic acquisition and conversion, exceptional product experience, data asset application, ecosystem construction, and regulatory adaptation [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Dynamics - The brokerage business is evolving from a focus on transaction volume and commission rates to a model that emphasizes customer asset scale and management fees [25]. - Internet brokers are leveraging low-cost customer acquisition and traffic monetization strategies to break free from traditional profitability constraints [20]. 2. Case Studies of Internet Securities - **Dongfang Caifu**: Utilizes a traffic ecosystem to create a closed-loop from information to trading, achieving low-cost customer acquisition and high conversion rates [28]. - **Charles Schwab**: Transitioned from a discount broker to a global wealth management giant by integrating a "fund supermarket" and unified accounts, enhancing customer asset management [31]. - **Futu Securities**: Targets underserved markets, particularly among overseas Chinese, by providing an exceptional internet product experience and localized operations [37]. - **Jiufang Zhitu**: Extends services from investment education to a full-chain service model, enhancing its potential in the internet securities space [44]. - **Robinhood**: Disrupted the U.S. market with a zero-commission model, attracting young users and is currently transitioning to a comprehensive investment service platform [53]. 3. Key Capabilities of Successful Internet Brokers - The focus has shifted from scale-driven traffic to quality-driven traffic conversion, emphasizing user experience and data-driven marketing [3]. - The construction of a comprehensive service platform that integrates information, data, community, trading, and wealth management is essential for creating user stickiness and value [3]. 4. Business Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the diffusion of AI technology in securities services, recommending companies like Huatai Securities for their strong fintech capabilities and innovative potential [3]. - Dongfang Caifu and Industrial Securities are also highlighted for their advantages in traffic and licensing, as well as strong reform momentum [3]. 5. Financial Projections and Ratings for Key Companies - **Huatai Securities**: Rated "Outperform" with an estimated EPS of 1.75 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 13.10 [6]. - **Dongfang Caifu**: Rated "Outperform" with an estimated EPS of 0.78 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 29.49 [6]. - **Industrial Securities**: Rated "Outperform" with an estimated EPS of 0.39 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 18.51 [6].