证券研究报告|2025年12月22日 资配跨年展望 春季躁动，你想知道的一切 资产配置研究·深度报告 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 01 全球资产 02 AH大势 03 风格 04 行业规律 05 技术实操 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 全球权益资产的"跨年行情"或"春季躁动"是否成立 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 全球资产的"跨年红包"与"春季行情"。1）季节效应上看，历年Q4全球主要市场股指涨幅更高，海外央行年末释放鸽派信号、外企 "岁末双薪"入市，圣诞假风偏提升驱动全球权益资产的"跨年红包"行情；2）大宗商品方面，Q1季节性偏强，黄金Q1强于Q4，银、 铜Q4强于Q1，布油四个季度表现逐季递减，受 OPEC 配额调整、冬季取暖和春季出行预期影响，一季度弹性偏大；3）全球资产如何共 振，中国"春季 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that in the week from December 15 to December 19, 2025, overseas markets experienced more declines than gains, with slight valuation changes. The Asia-Pacific region saw a broad decline, led by South Korea, while the Eurozone and the UK saw increases. Notably, the Nikkei 225 and the Korean Composite Index fell by 2.61% and 3.52%, respectively, but their P/E ratios expanded by 0.92x and 2.57x, indicating downward revisions in earnings expectations [3][8]. - In the same week, A-shares showed narrow fluctuations with slight valuation expansion. The large-cap value stocks outperformed growth stocks, with large-cap value rising by 1.52% while large-cap growth fell by 1.39%. The report highlights that the valuation distribution is asymmetric, with significant P/E contractions in small-cap growth and the National Index 2000 [3][23]. - The report notes that the downstream consumer sector has a favorable valuation attractiveness. The communication sector has the highest valuation percentiles, with rolling 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year averages of 96.80%, 98.93%, and 99.36%, respectively. Other consumer sectors like social services and beauty care also show relatively high valuation attractiveness [3][26]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the new energy sector experienced a broad decline, with photovoltaic stocks leading the drop at -3.91%. However, sectors such as insurance and military industry performed well, indicating a divergence in sector performance. The report also notes that some industries, like artificial intelligence and new energy, saw significant P/E expansions despite falling stock prices, reflecting downward revisions in profit expectations [3][23]. - The report provides a detailed valuation comparison of various indices, indicating that the core broad-based indices (CSI 300, Shanghai Composite, and Wind All A) are all above the 75th percentile level since 2010. In contrast, other indices are positioned between the median and the 75th percentile [3][28]. - The report concludes that large-cap growth stocks have superior valuation attractiveness, with their P/E, P/B, and P/S ratios showing higher percentile rankings compared to small-cap value stocks, which have lower valuation attractiveness across multiple time frames [3][26].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 (1998) (200) 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 宏观与策略 宏观快评:美国 11 月 CPI 点评-通胀回落，指引失真 宏观周报:宏观经济周报-年末放缓，质量上扬 固定收益专题研究:资金观察，货币瞭望-跨年资金需求季节性抬升，预 计 12 月市场利率上行 固 定 收 益 快 评 : 可 交 换 私 募 债 跟 踪 - 私 募 EB 每 周 跟 踪 （20251215-20251219） 固定收益周报:转债市场周报-弱资质及临期个券出现扰动 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-19 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3890.44 | 13140.21 | 4568.17 | 14068.19 | 3805.90 | 1308.58 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.36 | 0.66 | 0.33 | 1.14 | 0.73 | 0.20 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the China Securities REITs Index declined by 3.1% throughout the week. After the departure of irrational premium and speculative funds in the early stage, the year - to - date return of the China Securities REITs Index turned negative (-2.1%). As emotional pricing fades, prices are gradually anchored to the cash flow and distribution ability of underlying assets, significantly enhancing the safety margin. From the comparison of weekly returns of major indices, CSI Convertible Bond Index > CSI Aggregate Bond Index > CSI 300 Index > China Securities REITs Index. As of December 19, 2025, the dividend yield of equity - type REITs is 80BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend Stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield is 367BP [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market Trends - **Index Performance**: As of December 19, 2025, the closing price of the China Securities REITs (closing) Index was 773.15 points, with a weekly decline of 3.1% from December 15 - 19, 2025, performing worse than the CSI Convertible Bond Index (+0.5%), the CSI Aggregate Bond Index (+0.1%), and the CSI 300 Index (-0.3%). Year - to - date, the performance order of major indices is: CSI Convertible Bond Index (+17.1%) > CSI 300 Index (+16.1%) > CSI Aggregate Bond Index (+0.6%) > China Securities REITs Index (-2.1%). In the past year, the return of the China Securities REITs Index was -0.7%, with a volatility of 7.5%. Its return was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index, the CSI Convertible Bond Index, and the CSI Aggregate Bond Index; its volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the CSI Aggregate Bond Index [2][6]. - **Market Capitalization and Turnover**: On December 19, the total market capitalization of REITs was 214.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.5 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.39%, an increase of 0.02% from the previous week [2][9]. - **Performance by Type**: From the perspective of different project attributes, the average weekly returns of equity - type REITs and concession - type REITs were -2.1% and -4.0% respectively. All types of REITs closed down, with transportation, water conservancy facilities, and municipal facilities REITs experiencing the largest declines. The two REITs with the largest weekly increases were Hua'an Waigaoqiao REIT (+1.34%) and Boshi Jinkai Industrial Park REIT (+0.08%), while the rest of the REITs declined this week [3][13][15]. - **Trading Activity**: Among different project types, water conservancy facilities REITs had the highest average daily turnover rate during the period, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.9%. Transportation infrastructure REITs had the highest trading volume proportion this week, accounting for 25.9% of the total REITs trading volume. The top three REITs in terms of net inflow of main funds were Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT (7.45 million yuan), Huatai Jiangsu Expressway REIT (6.71 million yuan), and China Merchants Expressway REIT (4.22 million yuan) [3][18][19]. 3.2 Primary Market Issuance - From the beginning of the year to December 19, 2025, there were 2 REITs products in the accepted stage, 3 in the declared stage, 2 in the inquired stage, 5 in the feedback stage, 6 products that had passed and were waiting for listing, and 15 newly - listed first - issue products on the exchange [22]. 3.3 Valuation Tracking - **Valuation Indicators**: REITs have both bond and equity characteristics. As of December 19, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public - offering REITs was 6.20%. From the equity perspective, relative net value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO are used to judge the valuation of REITs. Different project types have different valuation levels. For example, the relative net value premium rate of affordable rental housing REITs is 40.7%, and the P/FFO is 36.3 [24][26]. - **Comparison with Benchmarks**: As of December 19, 2025, the dividend yield of equity REITs was 20BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend Stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 367BP [28]. 3.4 Industry News - On December 19, China Three Gorges New Energy (Group) Co., Ltd. officially applied for the "Huatai Three Gorges Clean Energy REIT", with the underlying asset being the Dalian Zhuanghe Offshore Wind Power Project. The project has been fully connected to the grid in 2020, and the relevant issuance proposal has been reviewed and approved by the board of directors. The company and its affiliated parties plan to subscribe for 44% of the fund shares in total. - On December 19, the "Huaxia Anbo Warehouse REIT" initiated by foreign - funded enterprise Ambo was successfully listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The underlying assets of this product are three high - quality logistics and warehousing projects in the core area of the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area. During the issuance stage, the offline inquiry multiple of this fund reached 235.8 times, and various investors highly recognized the investment value of the project [4][34].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 ETF 周报 A500 ETF 净申购超 300 亿元，上周新成立三只科创创业人工 智能 ETF 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2025 年 12 月 15 日至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度 收益率中位数为-0.26%。宽基 ETF 中，上证 50ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 0.67%， 收益最高。按板块划分，大金融 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 1.22%，收益最高。 按主题进行分类，军工 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 2.56%，收益最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净申购 554.47 亿元，总体规模增加 389.92 亿元。在 宽基 ETF 中，上周 A500ETF 净申购最多，为 326.39 亿元；按板块来 看，科技 ETF 净申购最多，为 63.82 亿元；按热点主题来看，芯片 ETF 净申购最多，为 30.50 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来看， 消费、大金融 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒、新 能车 ET ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（187） 优于大市 牧业产能维持去化，看好肉奶周期共振反转 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏维持增长，中期供给压力较大。12 月 19 日，鸡蛋主 产区价格 3.07 元/斤，周环比-0.65%，同比-5.98%。 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。12 月 19 日生猪价格 11.57 元/ 公斤，周环比+2.03%；7kg 仔猪价格约 218.57 元/头，周环比-0.43%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。12 月 19 日，鸡苗价格 3.37 元/ 羽，周环比-0.30%；毛鸡价格 7.28 元/公斤，周环比+0.55%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。12 月 18 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 5.0/5.9/7.5 元 ， 周 环 比 分 别 +8.70%/+5.36%/-8.54%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好牛周期反转上行。12 月 12 日，国内育肥 公牛出栏价为 25.40 元/kg，环比+0.79 ...

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3][4]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 优于大市 《保险公司资产负债管理办法（征求意见稿）》点评 匹配为基，风险导向 |  行业研究·行业快评 | | |  | 非银金融·保险Ⅱ |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 孔祥 | 021-60375452 | | kongxiang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523060004 | | 证券分析师： | 王京灵 | 0755-22941150 | | wangjingling@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525070007 | 事项： 2025 年 12 月 19 日，金融监督管理总局针对《保险公司资产负债管理办法（征求意见稿）》（以下简称《办 法》）公开征求意见。 国信非银观点：《办法》的发布标志着我国保险业资产负债管理监管体系即将从"暂行办法"迈入"全面 规管"的新阶段。此举旨在将此前分散的监管要求进行系统整合，构建更具刚性约束、更注重长期价值导 向的监管框架。我们认为《办法》的出台是推动保险业从规模驱动 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, A-shares were volatile and stabilized, with reduced market volume. Policies on stimulating domestic demand and the upcoming full - scale customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port boosted the large - consumption sector. The medical and commercial sectors performed well, while the previously rising TMT and new energy sectors lagged. The bond market first declined and then rose. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.83% on Friday, down 0.88bp from the previous week. Most convertible bond issues rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index up 0.48% for the week, the median price up 0.81%, and the calculated arithmetic average parity up 0.73% for the week, and the market conversion premium rate down 0.36% compared with the previous week [1][2][9] - In the coming week, the small - and micro - cap stocks performed well last week, and convertible bonds rose slightly following the underlying stocks. The median price rose to 132 yuan, and the premium rates of convertible bonds in most parity ranges increased. However, convertible bond ETFs have faced outflow pressure for 4 consecutive weeks, showing a "passive to active" structural feature. Recently, the willingness of several convertible bond issuers to promote conversion has significantly increased. Under the expectation of the spring rally, the parity of convertible bonds is expected to further rise. The number of issues actually facing maturity repayment is relatively limited, and some issues with longer remaining terms still have high conversion opportunities. Currently, the valuation of the convertible bond market is still at a historical high, and it is difficult to find overall opportunities. Relative - return investors are recommended to allocate small - position, well - balanced non - callable and suitable - premium equity - biased convertible bonds, and absolute - return investors are advised to focus on high - volatility underlying stocks below 130 yuan or industry leaders with historically low valuations [3][18] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market Focus Last Week (December 15 - December 19, 2025) Stock Market - A - shares were volatile and stabilized with reduced volume. Policies and the Hainan event boosted the consumption sector, and the medical and commercial sectors performed well due to the flu and AI. The TMT and new energy sectors lagged. The market showed daily fluctuations in indices and sector performances. Most of the Shenwan primary industries rose, with the top - gainers being commerce and retail (6.66%), non - bank finance (2.90%), beauty and care (2.87%), social services (2.66%), and basic chemicals (2.58%), while electronics (-3.28%), power equipment (-3.12%), machinery (-1.56%), and comprehensive (-1.53%) underperformed [8][9] Bond Market - The bond market first declined and then rose. Despite weak economic data and equity market adjustments at the beginning of the week, bond market sentiment was poor. The central bank's 1000 - billion - yuan 14 - day reverse repurchase operation on Thursday stabilized capital expectations, and bond market sentiment recovered in the second half of the week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.83% on Friday, down 0.88bp from the previous week [1][9] Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index was up 0.48% for the week, the median price was up 0.81%, the calculated arithmetic average parity was up 0.73% for the week, and the market conversion premium rate was down 0.36% compared with the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in the parity ranges of [90,100), [100,110), and [110,120) increased by 4.71%, 0.84%, and 0.85% respectively, reaching the 100%, 98%, and 94% percentile values since 2023. Most industries in the convertible bond market rose, with commerce and retail (+5.34%), light industry manufacturing (+4.73%), steel (+2.13%), and beauty and care (+1.95%) leading, while non - bank finance (-4.26%), communication (-0.50%), coal (-0.39%), and household appliances (-0.31%) lagged. The top - gainers among individual issues were Jiamei, Huati, Zai 22, Huicheng, and Huayi convertible bonds, and the top - losers were Nenghui, Borui, Furong, Jingda, and Weidao convertible bonds. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 3073.22 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 614.64 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [2][9][12] Views and Strategies (December 22 - December 26, 2025) - Small - and micro - cap stocks performed well last week, and convertible bonds rose slightly following the underlying stocks. The median price rose to 132 yuan, and the premium rates of convertible bonds in most parity ranges increased. However, convertible bond ETFs have faced outflow pressure for 4 consecutive weeks, showing a "passive to active" structural feature. Some low - price convertible bonds and large - cap, high - rating, near - maturity convertible bonds such as Huaan, Guotou, and Nenghua adjusted significantly, reflecting market concerns about the credit of low - quality issues and the conversion ability of near - maturity issues [3][18] - Recently, the willingness of several convertible bond issuers to promote conversion has significantly increased. Under the expectation of the spring rally, the parity of convertible bonds is expected to further rise. The number of issues actually facing maturity repayment is relatively limited, and some issues with longer remaining terms still have high conversion opportunities. If there are significant adjustments, investors can buy at low prices [3][18] - Currently, the valuation of the convertible bond market is still at a historical high, and it is difficult to find overall opportunities. Relative - return investors are recommended to allocate small - position, well - balanced non - callable and suitable - premium equity - biased convertible bonds in sectors such as power, storage, domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment and materials, commercial aerospace, and humanoid robots. Absolute - return investors are advised to focus on high - volatility underlying stocks below 130 yuan or industry leaders in sectors such as two - wheeled vehicles, cosmetics, and breeding with historically low valuations [3][18] Valuation Overview - As of December 19, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates in the parity ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 43.38%, 39.68%, 28.72%, 20.96%, 12.59%, and 13.84% respectively, at the 90%/82%, 98%/100%, 95%/97%, 93%/94%, 80%/70%, and 98%/98% percentile values since 2010/2021. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of issues with a parity below 70 yuan was -3.99%, at the 2%/5% percentile values since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 44.18%, at the 90%/96% percentile values since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was 3.03%, at the 86%/87% percentile values since 2010/2021 [19] Primary - Market Tracking - Last week (December 15 - December 19, 2025), there were no announcements of convertible bond issuances or listings. As of December 19, there were no announcements of convertible bond issuances in the coming week (December 22 - December 26, 2025), but Puxian Convertible Bond will be listed. Puxian Convertible Bond has an issue size of 243 million yuan, a credit rating of A+, and is scheduled to be listed on December 22. The underlying stock is Puxian Software, with a market value of 4.663 billion yuan as of December 19. The company focuses on management software development in the energy industry. In 2024, its revenue was 836 million yuan (+11.6% year - on - year), and the net profit was 121 million yuan (+95.06% year - on - year). From Q1 - Q3 2025, the revenue was 300 million yuan (+2.17% year - on - year), and the net profit was 100,000 yuan (-90.07% year - on - year) [27] - Last week, the exchanges approved the registration of 2 companies (Shangtai Technology and Jinpan Technology), the listing committees passed the applications of 3 companies (Zhanggao Electric, Doctor Glasses, and Haitian Co., Ltd.), the exchanges accepted the applications of 2 companies (Ruihu Mould and Nanxin Technology), the general meetings of shareholders passed the proposal of 1 company (Zuoli Pharmaceutical), and the board of directors proposed the issuance of 1 company (Tianshan Electronics). As of now, there are 93 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 146.9 billion yuan, including 5 issues with a total scale of 5.9 billion yuan that have been approved for registration and 10 issues with a total scale of 8.52 billion yuan that have passed the listing committee [28]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 可交换私募债跟踪 私募 EB 每周跟踪（20251215-20251219） 1. 南山集团有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者非公开发行可交换公司债券项目获交易所受理，拟发行规模 为 30 亿元，正股为南山铝业（600219.SH），主承销商为金圆统一证券，交易所更新日期为 2025 年 12 月 17 日； 风险提示 项目获批进度不及预期，经济增速下滑 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 1 固定收益快评 | 证券分析师： | 王艺熹 | 021-60893204 | wangyixi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522100006 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 吴越 | 021-60375496 | wuyue8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525080001 | | 证券分析师： | 赵婧 | 0755-22940745 | zhaojing@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513080004 | 我们定期梳理从公开渠道可获 ...