证券研究报告 | 2025年12月07日 2025年12月08日 可交换私募债跟踪 私募 EB 每周跟踪（20251201-20251205） 固定收益快评 | 证券分析师： | 王艺熹 | 021-60893204 | wangyixi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522100006 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 吴越 | 021-60375496 | wuyue8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525080001 | | 证券分析师： | 赵婧 | 0755-22940745 | zhaojing@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513080004 | 我们定期梳理从公开渠道可获得的最新的可交换私募债（私募 EB）项目情况，对私募可交换债项目做基本 要素跟踪，私募发行条款发行过程可能有更改，请以最终募集说明书为准，发行进度请与相关主承销商咨 询。 本周无新增项目信息；（部分项目因合规原因未予列示） 风险提示 项目获批进度不及预期，经济增速下滑 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ServiceNow (NOW.N) [5][12] Core Insights - ServiceNow reported subscription revenue of $3.299 billion for Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 20.5% at constant currency, exceeding the upper guidance by 1 percentage point and market consensus of $3.265 billion [1][7] - Adjusted net profit reached $1.01 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $900 million, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 33.5%, exceeding guidance by 3 percentage points [1][7] - The company's CRPO (Current Remaining Performance Obligations) grew by 20.5% year-over-year at constant currency, exceeding guidance by 250 basis points [1][7] Government and Large Orders Performance - The government segment showed strong growth with net new ACV (Annual Contract Value) exceeding expectations, growing over 30% year-over-year [2] - Significant growth was observed in transportation and logistics with over 90% year-over-year increase, while retail, hospitality, and education sectors also saw over 50% growth [2] - The company secured 103 transactions exceeding $1 million in ACV during the quarter, including 6 transactions over $10 million and 3 over $20 million [2] AI Product Performance - ServiceNow signed 12 net new ACV transactions exceeding $1 million for its Now Assist product, including one over $10 million [2] - The ITSM Pro Plus and HR Pro Plus products saw net new ACV double quarter-over-quarter, while ITOM Pro Plus grew fivefold [2] - The company aims to achieve over $1 billion in AI revenue by 2026, with AI product ACV expected to exceed $500 million this year [2] Financial Guidance and Outlook - The company raised its full-year subscription revenue guidance by $550 million to a range of $12.835 billion to $12.845 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 20.5% [3] - For Q4, ServiceNow expects subscription revenue of $3.42 billion to $3.43 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 19.5% [3] - The company has approved a 1-for-5 stock split to lower the investment threshold for investors [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at $13.287 billion, $16.139 billion, and $19.641 billion respectively, with net profits projected at $2.007 billion, $2.911 billion, and $4.013 billion [12][4]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月07日 2025年12月08日 农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月投资策略 优于大市 牧业大周期反转预计在即，核心推荐港股奶牛养殖标的 月度重点推荐组合：优然牧业（牧业大周期受益龙头），现代牧业（国内牧 业龙头企业）、牧原股份（生猪养殖龙头）。 各细分板块推荐逻辑：1）肉牛及原奶：牧业大周期反转预计在即，看好国 内肉奶景气共振上行，牧业公司业绩有望迎来高弹性修复。2）生猪：头部 企业现金流快速好转，并有望转型为红利标的，在全行业产能收缩的背景下， 龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者恒强。3）宠物：宠物作为新消费优质 赛道，长期景气受益人口趋势，且国内自主品牌正快速崛起，头部宠食标的 中期业绩增长确定性仍较强。4）饲料：畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分工明 确，饲料龙头凭借技术和服务优势，有望进一步拉大竞争优势。5）禽：供 给波动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势有 望实现更高现金流分红回报。 农产品价格跟踪：1）生猪：11 月末生猪 11.25 元/公斤，月环比-10%，7kg 仔猪价格约 216 元/头，月环比+18%。2）禽：11 月末白鸡毛鸡价格 7.10 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks as core investments [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are leaders in their respective sectors [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to benefit from a cyclical rebound, with a focus on both beef and milk production, as domestic prices are projected to rise significantly by 2027 [14][40] - The report highlights that the domestic milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to pressure on production capacity, while the beef-to-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, prompting faster culling of dairy cows [14][40] Swine Sector - The swine sector is experiencing a gradual recovery, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved cash flows and dividend potential as industry capacity contracts [1][15] - The report emphasizes that the current valuation of leading swine companies is at historical lows, indicating potential for valuation recovery [15][22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is seeing an increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery, particularly in the white-feathered chicken segment, which is entering a consumption peak [24][30] - The report notes that the price of broiler chickens has shown a slight recovery, with a projected increase in profitability for leading poultry companies [24][30] Pet Sector - The pet industry is identified as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and emotional consumer trends [16][20] - The report recommends leading pet food companies, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory due to product upgrades and direct sales transformations [20][16] Feed Sector - The feed sector is highlighted for its deepening industrialization and clear division of labor, with leading companies expected to widen their competitive advantages through technology and service [1][3] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of corn has increased by 4% month-on-month, while soybean meal prices are at historical lows, indicating a potential for future recovery [2][22] - The report also mentions that the egg market is under pressure from supply increases, while the demand for soybeans is tightening in the medium to long term [2][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5][6] Core Views - The successful trial run of the million-ton potash fertilizer project at the Xiaodongbu mining area marks a significant milestone for the company, indicating strong long-term growth potential [2][3][7] - The Xiaodongbu mining area has substantial resources, with an estimated potash ore volume of 3.936 billion tons and an estimated potassium chloride resource of 677 million tons, supporting the company's capacity expansion [3][7] - The company is expected to enter a stable production ramp-up phase, aiming for a mid-term production target of 5 million tons, facilitated by the newly operational main transportation system [3][8] Summary by Sections Project Development - The Xiaodongbu mining area is a key growth driver for the company, with a total area of 179.8 square kilometers and a high average potassium chloride grade of 17.14% [3][7] - The main transportation system, which is 2,500 meters long and has a capacity of 3,000 tons per hour, will enable efficient resource development and production upgrades [3][8] Industry Outlook - The global potash fertilizer supply and demand are tight, with expectations for high industry prosperity over the next 2-3 years [4][9] - In October, China's potash imports reached 1.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 26%, indicating robust domestic demand [4][9] - The supply side is constrained, with no new production capacity expected until 2025, and only the company's new capacity will be released in 2026-2027 [4][9] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.86 billion, 2.73 billion, and 3.29 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.00, 2.94, and 3.54 yuan [5][10] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 23.8, 16.2, and 13.4, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [5][10]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月04日 2025年12月06日 2025年12月08日 金蝶国际（00268.HK） 优于大市 企业 SaaS 服务领军者，AI 赋能重构管理软件 企业管理解决方案完善，积极推进 AI 落地。公司是全球领先的企业管理云 SaaS 服务商，构建了覆盖企业全生命周期的数字化解决方案，主要产品包括 企业级 AI 平台金蝶云苍穹，SaaS 管理云星瀚、星空、星辰。公司自 2011 年 开启云转型，2025H1 公司云服务收入占公司收入比重达 83.74%。随着订阅 模式的成熟，公司收入持续提升，2020-2024 年间 CAGR 达 16.84%，近年来 销售毛利率、净利率均有所回升。 云原生 EBC 重构管理软件，为 AI 落地的必要方案。公司与 Gartner 共同提 出企业数字化管理进入后 ERP 时代，开始向云原生 EBC 转型。EBC 把原本封 闭的功能模块重新拆分成可被 AI 调用的能力服务，成为企业 AI 落地必要的 接口层。公司为云原生 EBC 转型的先驱，客户粘性持续提升。 信创、更新需求推动软件换代，国产替代仍有较大空间。在 ERP 换代需求推 动下，央国企引领 ...

Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from the livestock cycle recovery [1][3] - The report highlights the expected upward trend in domestic beef and milk prices, suggesting a strong recovery in the performance of livestock companies [1][14] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is projected to experience a major turnaround, with a focus on dairy farming stocks such as YouRan Agriculture and Modern Farming [1][14] - The report indicates that the domestic beef and milk markets are likely to see a price rebound, driven by a reduction in production capacity and improved demand dynamics [1][14] - The anticipated "meat-milk resonance" is expected to enhance profitability for dairy farming companies, with significant earnings recovery potential [1][14] Swine Sector - The swine sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in prices, with leading companies like Huazhong and Muyuan Foods positioned to benefit from valuation corrections [1][14] - The report notes that the cash flow of leading swine companies is improving, which may lead to higher dividend payouts in the future [1][15] - The current market conditions suggest that the swine industry is stabilizing, with a focus on maintaining reasonable breeding levels [22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery to support price stabilization [24] - The report highlights that the white-feathered chicken market is showing signs of recovery, with prices expected to improve as the consumption season approaches [24] - Leading poultry companies are anticipated to maintain strong profitability amid changing supply dynamics [24] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising growth area, with domestic brands gaining traction and expected to benefit from rising consumer sentiment [1][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for local pet food brands to capture market share, particularly in the high-end segment [1][16] - The performance of leading pet food companies is projected to remain strong, driven by product upgrades and direct sales strategies [20] Feed Sector - The feed sector is expected to benefit from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages [1][14] - The report indicates that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a strong cost support for livestock producers [1][14] - The anticipated tightening of supply-demand balance in the feed market is expected to lead to gradual price recovery [1][14] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of live pigs was 11.25 yuan/kg at the end of November, down 10% month-on-month, while the price of 7kg piglets increased by 18% [2][22] - The report also highlights that corn prices have increased by 4% month-on-month, indicating a potential bottoming out in the market [2][22] - The overall agricultural sector is showing resilience, with the SW Agricultural Index outperforming the broader market [2][22]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月08日 ETF 周报 上周股票型 ETF 涨幅中位数为 1.08%，军工 ETF 领涨 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2025 年 12 月 01 日至 2025 年 12 月 05 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度 收益率中位数为1.08%。宽基ETF中，创业板类ETF涨跌幅中位数为1.86%， 收益最高。按板块划分，周期 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 1.32%，收益最高。按 主题进行分类，军工 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 2.72%，收益最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净申购 41.79 亿元，总体规模增加 398.29 亿元。在宽基 ETF 中，上周 A500ETF 净申购最多，为 44.12 亿元；按板块来看，科技 ETF 净申购最多，为 33.06 亿元；按热点主题来看，AIETF 净申购最多，为 8.99 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来看，消费、 大金融 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒 ETF 的估值分 位数相对较低。 ETF 融资融券情况 上周一至周四股票型 ETF ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [6][46]. Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing significant growth driven by advancements in AI infrastructure and cloud computing technologies, particularly with the introduction of new AI chips and optical interconnect technologies [5][11][18]. - Companies like Marvell and Credo are leading the charge with substantial revenue growth and strategic acquisitions aimed at enhancing their capabilities in AI and data center technologies [2][3][21]. - The successful launch of the "Zhuque-3" rocket marks a pivotal moment in China's commercial space endeavors, further stimulating interest and investment in the aerospace sector [4][31]. Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - AWS successfully hosted its annual re:Invent cloud computing conference, unveiling the next-generation AI chip Trainium 4, which supports NVLink Fusion technology for high-speed chip interconnects [11][12]. - Marvell reported a 37% year-over-year revenue increase for FY2026 Q3, driven by data center demand and operational efficiency, and announced a $3.25 billion acquisition of Celestial AI to enhance its optical interconnect technology [2][18]. - Credo's FY2026 Q2 revenue reached $268 million, reflecting a 20.2% quarter-over-quarter growth, with expectations for continued growth driven by AI training and inference infrastructure [3][21]. Market Performance Review - The communication sector index increased by 3.69% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.41%, ranking second among primary industries [4][36]. - Notable performers in the sector included satellite internet, optical devices/chips, and IoT controllers, with respective increases of 9.85%, 5.93%, and 4.35% [36]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of AI computing infrastructure development, recommending investments in optical devices, communication equipment, and liquid cooling technologies [5][43]. - It suggests long-term investment in the three major telecom operators due to their stable operations and increasing dividend payouts, highlighting companies such as China Mobile and ZTE [5][43].

Group 1: Macro and Strategy Insights - The report highlights three key drivers for unlocking service sector growth in China: overseas "input demand," domestic "time-scarce" potential demand, and "innovation demand" arising from industrial upgrades [8][9] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a classic cycle dilemma in the service sector, where boosting service demand is seen as dependent on increasing resident income, creating a paradox [8][9] - The report discusses the evolution of anti-involution policies, emphasizing the need for industry self-discipline and administrative guidance to address overcapacity issues in various sectors [9] Group 2: Banking Industry Outlook - The banking industry is projected to experience a decline in net interest margins, with the bottom line estimated at around 1.2% to 1.3% [22][23] - A potential decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points could lead to a year-on-year decline in net interest margins by approximately 5 to 8 basis points [23][24] - The report suggests that 2026 will likely mark the end of the current cycle of declining net interest margins, with a focus on quality stocks that are expected to see margin improvements [25] Group 3: Wealth Management and Asset Allocation - The report indicates that the scale of bank wealth management products reached a historical high of nearly 34 trillion yuan in November, with expectations to stabilize around 33 trillion yuan by year-end [26][27] - A shift towards multi-asset strategies is seen as essential for wealth management firms to adapt to declining returns from traditional fixed-income products [27][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of matching the risk-return profile of wealth management funds with investor preferences to successfully implement multi-asset strategies [28][30] Group 4: REITs Market Insights - The report notes a decline in the REITs index by 1.0% for the week ending December 5, 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 1.5% [12][13] - The first city renewal REIT was successfully issued in Beijing, signaling new opportunities in the REITs market [14] - The report highlights the need for regulatory support to enhance the potential for REITs to attract more investment [14][30] Group 5: Overseas Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is showing a concentration in technology, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing slight increases [34] - The report indicates a mixed performance across sectors, with notable gains in automotive and semiconductor industries, while utilities and consumer staples faced declines [34][35] - The earnings expectations for the S&P 500 components have been slightly revised upward, reflecting a stable outlook for most industries [35]