Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][19][22] Core Views - The company has experienced significant growth in net profit, with a 51% year-on-year increase in Q3 2025, driven by the continuous ramp-up of passive safety systems and cost optimization [2][8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 remained stable at 29.1%, with expectations of steady improvements in airbag and steering wheel business margins due to scale effects and increased self-manufacturing rates [3][10] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rise of domestic automotive brands, with a projected global market size for passenger vehicle passive safety systems exceeding 100 billion yuan [4][19] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.83 billion yuan, a 40% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 260 million yuan, up 37.9% [2][8] - In Q3 2025 alone, revenue reached 690 million yuan, reflecting a 35.4% year-on-year increase and a 12.1% quarter-on-quarter increase, with net profit at 102 million yuan, up 50.9% year-on-year [2][8] Margin and Cost Management - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 29.1%, showing slight improvement year-on-year, with effective cost control reflected in stable expense ratios [3][10] - Sales expense ratio was 1.2%, down 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while management expense ratio was 3.4%, up slightly [3][10] Market Position and Product Development - The company is expanding its product matrix with airbags and steering wheels, enhancing the per-vehicle value from approximately 200 yuan to potentially 1,000-1,500 yuan as it upgrades to a full passive safety system supplier [4][19] - The company has established partnerships with various domestic brands and is also targeting foreign brands, expanding its customer base significantly [18][19] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast remains unchanged, with expected net profits of 390 million yuan, 520 million yuan, and 700 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside EPS projections of 1.22 yuan, 1.64 yuan, and 2.20 yuan [4][19][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][17]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a revenue stabilization with a slight decline in Q3 revenue and net profit, but positive trends are emerging due to favorable policies and high-end consumption recovery [1][5]. - The company has initiated a mid-term dividend distribution of 0.25 yuan per share, reflecting a profit distribution rate of approximately 16.95% for the first three quarters [1][10]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing policy support in the duty-free sector, particularly in Hainan and airport sales, which are expected to enhance profitability in the upcoming peak season [4][17]. Revenue Summary - Q3 revenue was 11.711 billion yuan, down 0.38% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.452 billion yuan, down 28.94% [1][10]. - For the first three quarters, total revenue reached 39.862 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.34%, and net profit was 3.052 billion yuan, down 22.13% [1][10]. - The Hainan duty-free market is showing signs of stabilization, with a slight decrease in sales but an increase in average spending per customer [2][13]. Profitability Summary - The company's gross margin for Q3 was 32.0%, remaining stable year-on-year, with a potential increase when excluding low-margin electronic products [3][13]. - The net profit margin for Q3 was 3.9%, reflecting a decrease of 1.6 percentage points, influenced by foreign exchange and sales expense factors [3][13]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved operational efficiency and cost management, which may enhance profitability in the future [4][17]. Future Outlook - The National Day holiday performance indicates a positive trend, with sales in Hainan's duty-free sector showing growth in sales amount, shopping numbers, and per capita spending [4][14]. - The company is expanding its product categories and customer base in Hainan, which may lead to increased consumer engagement and sales [4][14]. - The introduction of new policies for city duty-free stores is expected to strengthen the company's position in the domestic market, allowing it to capture new consumer demand [4][14].

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月02日 吉比特（603444.SH） 优于大市 新品推动第三季度收入增长 129%，看好新游持续贡献增量 2025 第三季度新品拉动收入同比上升 129%。1）2025 年前三季度，公司收入 44.9 亿元，同比增长 59.1%；其中，《问道手游》流水同比下滑 7.0%至 16.1 亿，《杖剑传说（大陆版）》、《问剑长生（大陆版）》、《杖剑传说（境 外版）》、《道友来挖宝》流水分别为 11.7、7.1、4.8、3.2 亿元；归母净 利润 12.1 亿元，同比增长 84.6%。2）单看第三季度，公司的营业收入为 19.7 亿元，同比增长 129.2%；归母净利润 5.7 亿元，同比增长 307.7%。 新品上线带动毛利率同比增长 5.6 个百分点。2025 年第三季度，公司的毛利 率 94.6%，同比增长 5.6 个百分点；费用率整体下降 12.5 个百分点至 50.5%， 销售/管理/财务/研发费用率分别为 30.9%/5.8%/-0.5%/14.4%，分别同比 +2.0/-4.2/-2.3/-8.0 个百分点，主要由于新品上线买量费用上升。 《杖剑传说》表现优异，《道友来挖 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][25] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.4 billion yuan for the third quarter of 2025, which met expectations. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 312.5 billion yuan (down 4.2% year-on-year) and a net profit of 101.97 billion yuan (down 12.6% year-on-year), primarily due to declining oil prices [1][11] - The company's oil and gas production reached a new high, with a net production of 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent for the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year. Domestic production accounted for 69.3% of total production, benefiting from contributions from various oil and gas fields [2][14] - The company maintained stable capital expenditures, with a total of 86 billion yuan spent in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 9.8% year-on-year. The full-year capital expenditure is expected to remain unchanged at 125-135 billion yuan [3][21] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 312.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 101.97 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw revenue of 104.9 billion yuan (up 5.7% year-on-year) and a net profit of 32.4 billion yuan (down 12.2% year-on-year) [1][11] - The average realized price for oil liquids was 68.3 USD/barrel (down 13.6% year-on-year), while the average gas price was 7.86 USD/thousand cubic feet (up 1.0% year-on-year) [19][2] Production and Operations - The company achieved a net production of 193.7 million barrels of oil equivalent in the third quarter of 2025, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year. The total net production for the first three quarters was 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, with domestic production at 400.8 million barrels (up 8.6% year-on-year) [2][14] - The company successfully evaluated 22 oil and gas structures and made five new discoveries in the first three quarters of 2025, with four new projects launched in the third quarter [3][21] Investment Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 126.3 billion yuan, 129.7 billion yuan, and 135 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.66, 2.73, and 2.84 yuan [4][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The new tax policy for gold aims to clarify the usage of gold raw materials and implement differentiated tax management, guiding market participants to reduce speculative behavior and promote healthy competition within the industry [2] - The policy changes are expected to benefit leading companies with strong brand and product capabilities, such as Cai Bai Co. and China Gold, while potentially impacting the procurement and liquidity of physical gold for certain enterprises [2][3] - The tax policy adjustments are likely to enhance the competitive edge of leading enterprises, ensuring stable profit margins through differentiated products and service levels [3][16] Summary by Sections Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy differentiates between investment and non-investment uses of gold, with specific tax implications for each category [4][10] - For investment purposes, the core change is that member units can only issue ordinary invoices to buyers, which cannot be used to deduct input tax, potentially increasing tax costs for businesses [4][7] - For non-investment purposes, the tax treatment shifts from "immediate tax refund" to "tax exemption," which reduces the financial burden on companies but increases the actual VAT payable due to a lower deduction rate [10][11] Impact on Companies - Listed gold jewelry companies, primarily engaged in jewelry retail, may face increased tax costs under the new regulations, but their core competitiveness will still rely on product and service quality [14][16] - The new tax regulations may lead to a shift in consumer purchasing behavior, encouraging purchases from member units of the Shanghai Gold Exchange [7][15] Recommendations - It is recommended to continue monitoring companies that engage in both investment gold and jewelry sales, such as Cai Bai Co., Lao Pu Gold, and traditional leaders like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Holdings, as they are expected to maintain stable profit margins due to their strong market positions and product differentiation [16]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 increased by 0.7% this week, while the Nasdaq rose by 2.2%[1] - Large-cap growth (Russell 1000 Growth) outperformed small-cap growth (Russell 2000 Growth) with a difference of 2.2%[1] - Semiconductor products and equipment led the sectors with a gain of 6.2%[1] Fund Flows - Estimated fund flow for S&P 500 components was -$40.5 million this week, down from +$65.6 million last week[2] - Major inflows were seen in semiconductor products and equipment (+$77.3 million) and retail (+$26.9 million)[2] - Significant outflows occurred in media and entertainment (-$65.2 million) and diversified financials (-$63.2 million)[2] Earnings Forecast - The 12-month forward EPS expectation for S&P 500 components was raised by 0.6% this week, following a 0.4% increase last week[3] - Retail sector EPS was revised up by 2.9%, while energy sector EPS was cut by 1.7%[3] - Overall, 14 sectors saw upward revisions in earnings expectations, while 10 sectors experienced downward adjustments[3]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月02日 兴业银行（601166.SH）2025 年三季报点评 中性 业绩保持正增长，资产质量稳健 净利润保持正增长。2025 年前三季度实现营收 1612 亿元，同比下降 1.82%， 较半年度收窄 0.47 个百分点，第三季度同比下降 0.78%；实现归母净利润 631 亿元，同比增长 0.12%。 净利息收入同比降幅收窄，其他非息降幅处在同业较好水平。前三季度净利 息收入同比下降 0.56%，较上半年收窄约 0.96 个百分点，主要是资产规模同 比增速略有提升。手续费及佣金净收入同比增长 3.79%， 较上半年扩大 1.2 个百分点；其他非息净收入同比下降 9.28%，降幅处于同业较好水平。 规模小幅扩张，客户质量稳步提升。期末资产总额 10.67 万亿元，贷款总额 5.99 万亿元，存款总额 5.83，较年初分别增长 1.57%、4.42%、和 5.47%； 其中，绿色贷款、科技贷款、制造业中长期贷款较年初分别增长 18.64%、 17.70%和 13.82%，三张名片保持特色。期末零售客户 1.14 亿户，较年初增 长 3.4%，双金客户和私行客户交年初分了增长 10 ...

港股市场速览 优于大市 价格整体回调，业绩平稳上修 股价表现：多数行业与风格出现回撤 证券研究报告 | 2025年11月02日 9 个行业上涨，21 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：电力设备及新能源（+2.6%）、 有色金属（+2.4%）、农林牧渔（+2.0%）、医药（+0.9%）、银行（+0.8%）； 下跌的主要有：纺织服装（-4.9%）、电子（-4.8%）、机械（-3.9%）、建 筑（-2.7%）、房地产（-2.5%）。 估值水平：市场估值回落 本周，恒生指数估值（动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率，后同）-1.8%至 11.9x； 恒生综指估值-1.7%至 11.9x。 主要概念指数估值多数下降。估值上升的主要有恒生生物科技（+0.1%至 27.3x）；估值下降的主要有恒生消费（-3.7%至 14.2x）。 国信海外选股策略估值多数下降。估值上升的主要有 ROE 策略进攻型（+1.3% 至 15.2x）；估值下降的主要有 ROE 策略防御型（-2.3%至 14.1）。 5 个行业估值上升，24 个行业估值下降。估值上升的主要有：农林牧渔 （+1.0%）、电力设备及新能源（+0.7%）、有色金属（+0.4%）、交通 ...

Group 1: Copper Price Dynamics - Copper prices reached a historical high due to a combination of inventory distortion, improved macro expectations, and tight supply-demand fundamentals[12] - LME copper inventory has decreased by over 40% since the beginning of the year, leading to increased price volatility and liquidity risks[12] - The recent suspension of operations at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine resulted in a single-day price increase of over 3%[12] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Progress in US-China trade negotiations has improved growth expectations, contributing to the rise in copper prices[13] - On October 28, a consensus on key issues in US-China economic discussions was reached, boosting market risk appetite[13] - The delay in the Grasberg mine's resumption until 2027 and the collapse of Chile's El Teniente mine continue to tighten copper supply, providing price support[13] Group 3: Market Performance Overview - From October 25 to November 1, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.43%, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.72%[14] - The US dollar index increased by 0.8%, and LME copper prices rose by 0.88% during the same period[14] - The latest week saw crude oil inventories rise by 2.78 million tons, while copper inventories increased by 14,656 tons[23]

Group 1: Copper Price Dynamics - The recent surge in copper prices is attributed to a distortion in inventory, with LME copper inventory down over 40% since the beginning of the year, leading to increased price volatility[12] - The low inventory environment allows for significant price fluctuations, as evidenced by a single-day increase of over 3% in LME copper prices following the shutdown of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia[12] - The imbalance in inventory distribution, particularly in Europe where inventory accounts for less than 15%, heightens the risk of supply disruptions[12] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Recent easing of risk events, particularly progress in US-China trade negotiations, has improved macroeconomic expectations, fueling copper price increases[13] - On October 28, a consensus on key issues in US-China economic talks was reached, enhancing market risk appetite[13] - The outlook for copper prices suggests increased short-term volatility but a long-term upward trend, supported by ongoing supply constraints from delayed mine restarts[13] Group 3: Market Performance Overview - For the week of October 25 to November 1, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.43%, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.72%[14] - In commodities, LME copper increased by 0.88%, while WTI crude oil decreased by 0.85% during the same period[14] - The latest inventory data shows a rise in copper stocks to 109,690 tons, up by 14,656 tons from the previous week[23]