Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 22.77 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.5%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.6% to 2.1 billion yuan, and the non-recurring profit fell by 7.3% to 1.91 billion yuan [1][3] - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in domestic sales due to continuous innovation and strong channel competitiveness, with a projected revenue growth of 2.7% in the Chinese market for 2025 [1] - The company's external sales were slightly impacted by a decrease in orders from major clients, leading to a slight decline in external sales revenue [2] - The gross profit margin has slightly improved due to cost reduction measures and an increase in the proportion of domestic sales, although overall profit margins have been pressured by increased marketing and R&D expenses [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company reported a revenue of 22.77 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.1 billion yuan, reflecting a decline in profitability due to increased expenses [1][4] - The company expects Q4 2025 revenue to be 5.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.7% year-on-year, with net profit projected at 730 million yuan, down 10% [1] Sales Performance - Domestic sales showed resilience with a growth of 2.7% in 2025, while external sales faced challenges, particularly in North America and South America, where revenues declined by 9.7% and 11.9% respectively [2] - The company aims to leverage its strong market position and innovative capabilities to sustain domestic revenue growth [1] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin has seen a slight increase, attributed to effective cost management and a higher share of domestic sales, despite a decrease in net profit margin to 9.2% [3] - The company has increased its investment in marketing and R&D to support domestic growth, leading to a rise in overall expense ratios [3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting net profits of 2.1 billion, 2.25 billion, and 2.37 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of -7%, +8%, and +5% [3][4] - The company maintains a strong dividend policy, which is expected to attract investors despite the challenges faced in external markets [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Supor (002032.SZ) is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - Supor's 2025 performance shows stable revenue growth with a slight decline in profit due to increased expenses. The company achieved a revenue of 22.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, while net profit decreased by 6.6% to 2.1 billion yuan [1][3] - The company maintains a strong market position in domestic sales, with a 2.7% growth in the Chinese market, supported by innovation and competitive channel advantages [1] - External sales faced slight pressure, with a decrease in orders from major clients, leading to a minor decline in external revenue. The company is expected to benefit from SEB's mid-term goal of returning to a 5% annual growth rate [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, Supor's revenue is projected at 22.77 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.1 billion yuan, reflecting a decline in profit margins due to increased marketing and R&D expenses [3][4] - The company's gross profit margin has slightly improved, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 9.2% [3][4] Sales Performance - Domestic sales showed resilience with a 2.7% growth in 2025, while external sales were impacted by a decrease in orders, particularly in North America and South America [2][3] - The company expects to maintain stable growth in domestic sales through innovation and strong market presence [1][2] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 2.1 billion, 2.25 billion, and 2.37 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a growth rate of -7%, +8%, and +5% [3][4]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月27日 房地产行业快评 优于大市 "沪七条"进一步释放购买力，数据改善和政策博弈情绪共振 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | |  房地产 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 任鹤 | 010-88005315 | renhe@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040006 | | 证券分析师： | 王粤雷 | 0755-81981019 | wangyuelei@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520030001 | | 证券分析师： | 王静 | 021-60893314 | wangjing20@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522100002 | 事项： 2026 年 2 月 25 日，上海市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局、市财政局、市税务局、市公积金管理中 心等五部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》（以下简称"沪七条"），明确进一步 调减住房限购政策、优化住房公积金贷款政策、完善个人住房房产 ...

Investment Chain - The prices of non-ferrous metals have risen significantly since February 2026, with copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, tin, nickel, gold, and silver all experiencing price increases. However, fixed asset investment growth has declined, with real estate development investment down by 17.20% year-on-year and manufacturing fixed asset investment growth at only 0.60% [10][11] - In February 2026, the average price of ordinary cement decreased, while the prices of steel and light soda ash also fell. The sales growth of large and light buses declined, but the sales growth of medium-sized buses increased [10][11] Consumption Chain - In January 2026, the year-on-year growth rate of automobile sales showed a slight recovery, increasing to -3.18%. However, the consumer confidence index fell to 89.50 in December 2025, and retail sales growth for home appliances decreased by 14.25% [11][12] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 saw a nominal year-on-year growth rate drop to 0.90%, with a cumulative decline of 3.70% [11][12] - Tourism revenue in Beijing increased by 11.40% year-on-year in December 2024, while tourism revenue in Hainan decreased by 20.03% in March 2024 [11][12] Export Chain - In December 2025, exports to Japan and ASEAN countries increased, while exports to the US and EU saw a decline. The export growth rate for electronic products rose to 37.25%, while textile exports fell by 4.23% [12][13] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate for exports of refined oil, coke, steel, and aluminum increased, while the export amounts for agricultural products, toys, furniture, and other categories decreased [12][13] - The OECD leading indicator for the US rose to 100.50 in January 2026, indicating potential economic improvement [12][13] Price Chain - In February 2026, pork prices decreased to 12.75 yuan per kilogram, while oil prices increased, with WTI rising to 65.63 USD per barrel [13][14] - The price of PVC rose to 4770 yuan per ton, while the price of MDI fell to 13950 yuan per ton [13][14] - The price of cotton increased, and the price of white sugar decreased during the same period [13][14]

新东方-S（09901.HK） 优于大市 聚焦高质量发展，全年收入增速指引上调 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月27日 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、政策趋严、业务渗透率提升缓慢、股东减持等。 投资建议：我们上调公司 2026-2028 财年归母净利润至 4.8/5.6/6.2 亿美元 （原值：4.3/4.8/5.3 亿美元），最新市值对应 PE 为 19.5/17.0/15.2x。面 对中高考改革、地缘政治带来的经营环境不确定性，公司作为 K12 及出国 留学业务龙头，在已有的教研、品牌、用户基础核心优势上，进一步聚焦高 质量发展并持续提能提质，成效已逐步体现于续班率与经营利润率提升上。 考虑到核心教育业务在低预期上企稳向好，同时东方甄选 FY2026H1 扭亏为 盈，有望持续修复，我们维持新东方-S"优于大市"评级。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万美元) | 4,314 | 4,900 | 5,470 | 6,071 | 6,691 | | ( ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its revenue growth guidance for the fiscal year 2026, now expecting a growth rate of 8-12%, up from the previous estimate of 5-10% [4][20]. - The company reported a significant increase in net revenue for FY2026Q2, achieving $1.191 billion, which represents a year-on-year growth of 14.7%, exceeding market expectations [2][9]. - The Non-GAAP operating profit reached $89.13 million, marking a substantial increase of 206.9% year-on-year, indicating continuous improvement in profitability [2][9]. - Deferred revenue stood at $2.162 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, which lays a solid foundation for future revenue recognition [2][9]. Revenue and Business Performance - The new education business remains the core growth driver, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 21.6%, benefiting from improved renewal rates [2][13]. - The number of active paid users for the smart learning system reached 352,000, showing a year-on-year growth of 34.9% [2][13]. - The company has 1,379 teaching centers, reflecting a cautious expansion strategy with a 2% quarter-on-quarter increase [3][18]. - The adult and university student-related business saw a year-on-year revenue growth of 12.8%, although the growth rate slightly declined compared to the previous quarter [2][13]. Financial Projections - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2026-2028 to $480 million, $560 million, and $620 million, respectively, up from previous estimates [4][21]. - The latest market capitalization corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.5 for 2026, 17.0 for 2027, and 15.2 for 2028 [4][21]. - The expected revenue for FY2026 is projected to be $5.47 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [5][23].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,381, down 1.44% for the day and up 2.93% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.87%, reaching a new low since July of the previous year[9] - The Shanghai Composite Index remained stable, closing at 4,147, with a slight decrease of 0.01% for the day and a year-to-date increase of 4.48%[3] Sector Performance - Major tech stocks in Hong Kong saw significant declines, with Bilibili and Baidu dropping over 4%, and Alibaba falling more than 3%[9] - The biopharmaceutical sector faced heavy losses, with BeiGene down over 9% and WuXi Biologics down over 7%[9] - Conversely, the power equipment sector experienced gains, with Dongfang Electric rising over 15%[9] Investment Insights - Storage concept stocks surged, with Southern Double Long Samsung Electronics up over 15% and Southern Double Long SK Hynix up over 14%[9] - Cryptocurrency stocks collectively rose, with Jin Yong Investment increasing by 29.28%[9] - Nvidia's earnings report did not alleviate market concerns, leading to a decline in tech stocks, with the Nasdaq dropping over 1%[9] Economic Indicators - The U.S. jobless claims increased less than expected, indicating relatively low layoffs[12] - The Federal Reserve's officials suggested potential interest rate cuts if inflation decreases[12] - Ongoing discussions between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva showed positive progress, with further negotiations scheduled[12]

Investment Chain - Non-ferrous metal prices have risen since February 2026, with fixed asset investment growth in December 2025 declining to -3.80%[1] - Real estate development investment in December 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 17.20%[1] - Manufacturing fixed asset investment growth in December 2025 decreased to 0.60%[1] - Infrastructure investment growth in December 2025 fell to -1.48%[1] Consumption Chain - In December 2025, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of social consumption fell to 0.90%, with a cumulative decline of 3.70%[2] - The consumer confidence index in December 2025 dropped to 89.50[2] - In January 2026, automobile sales saw a year-on-year growth rate increase to -3.18%[2] - Home appliance retail sales in December 2025 experienced a year-on-year decline of 14.25%[2] Export Chain - In December 2025, exports to Japan and ASEAN saw a year-on-year growth increase, while exports to the US and EU declined[3] - The export growth rate for electronic products in December 2025 rose to 37.25%[3] - Textile export value in December 2025 decreased by 4.23% year-on-year[3] - Mechanical export value in December 2025 increased by 6.60% year-on-year[3] Price Chain - As of February 2026, the price of pork decreased to 12.75 yuan/kg[4] - WTI crude oil price increased to $65.63 per barrel on February 24, 2026[4] - PVC spot price rose to 4770 yuan/ton on February 24, 2026[4] - The average price of coal in Qinhuangdao increased in February 2026[4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Insights - The total household debt in the U.S. reached $18.78 trillion by the end of 2025, with a delinquency rate of 4.81% [3]. - Mortgage balances stood at $13.17 trillion, growing by 4.5% year-on-year, accounting for 70.1% of total household debt [3][5]. - Credit card balances increased to $1.28 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5%, representing 6.8% of total debt [3][6]. - Auto loan balances reached $1.67 trillion, with a growth rate declining to 0.7%, the lowest since 2010, making up 8.9% of total debt [3][6]. - The overall delinquency rate for household debt increased significantly, with a 90+ days delinquency rate of 3.13%, reflecting a rise of 1.22 percentage points since the beginning of the year [3][13]. - The increase in delinquency rates is largely attributed to policy changes affecting student loans, which saw a return to high delinquency rates after a period of forbearance [13][14]. Summary by Sections Household Debt Overview - By the end of 2025, U.S. household debt totaled $18.78 trillion, with a year-to-date increase of approximately $0.74 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 4.1% [5]. - The mortgage balance is the largest component, while credit card and auto loan growth rates have slowed down significantly [6]. Delinquency Rates - The overall delinquency rate for household debt reached 4.81%, with significant increases in both overall and 90+ days delinquency rates [13]. - The delinquency rates for credit cards and auto loans are at their highest levels since 2012, indicating ongoing financial stress among borrowers [14]. Economic Implications - The current economic environment shows that U.S. residents have not over-leveraged themselves, largely due to tightened credit conditions from financial institutions [4]. - The disparity in mortgage and credit card trends reflects a "K-shaped" economic recovery, with lower-income groups facing greater repayment pressures [4][36]. - The report suggests that while mortgage delinquency rates may rise slightly, they are expected to remain manageable due to the high credit quality of mortgage borrowers [19][25].

Group 1: Amer Sports Performance - Amer Sports reported a 27% revenue growth for the fiscal year 2025, reaching $6.566 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $545 million, up from $236 million in 2024 [7][8] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 28% to $2.101 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $176 million, compared to $90 million in Q4 2024 [8] - The management guidance for 2026 indicates a revenue growth of 16-18% at constant exchange rates, with an operating profit margin of 13.1-13.3% [8] Group 2: Silver Economy and Sports Industry - The aging population in China is creating significant opportunities in the silver economy, particularly in the sports industry and products catering to older adults [9][10] - The sports apparel market is projected to reach ¥437.7 billion by 2025, with outdoor trail running shoes expected to grow over 150% [9] - The demand for professional running shoes priced above ¥200 is anticipated to maintain double-digit growth, driven by increased health awareness among the elderly [9] Group 3: Lithium Industry Insights - The lithium market is experiencing tightening supply and low inventory levels, with global lithium demand expected to reach approximately 200,000 tons LCE in 2026 [12][14] - Domestic lithium supply is not yet at large-scale production, with potential disruptions in lithium mica supply and new mining regulations coming into effect in July 2025 [13] - The demand for lithium is being driven by both power and energy storage batteries, with a projected 50% year-on-year growth in energy storage battery shipments [13][14] Group 4: Chemical Industry Policy - Recent tax incentives for marine oil and gas exploration aim to enhance domestic energy security by reducing import costs for essential equipment [15][16] - The policy includes exemptions from import duties for equipment used in oil and gas exploration and a VAT rebate for qualifying imported natural gas [15][16] - These measures are expected to improve project internal rates of return and promote the development of deep-sea oil and gas fields [16] Group 5: Matrix Holdings - Matrix Holdings is positioned as a leading high-end interior design company, with a focus on space design and soft decoration [19] - The company anticipates a significant recovery in revenue and profit starting in 2025, with projected net profit growth of 72%-137% [19][20] - The introduction of an "AI+Design" platform is expected to enhance design efficiency and improve profit margins [20] Group 6: Anfu Technology - Anfu Technology, a leader in the small battery sector, is transitioning towards high-tech fields, including AI and semiconductor manufacturing [21][22] - The company controls 46% of Nanfu Battery, which has shown consistent revenue growth, with plans to acquire the remaining shares [22] - Strategic investments in next-generation optical chips are expected to open new growth avenues for the company [23]