Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the liquor industry, specifically for companies like Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu [4]. Core Insights - The liquor industry serves as an economic lubricant, with its revenue growth closely aligned with GDP growth and the sales expenses of A-share listed companies [2]. - Long-term price trends for Moutai are expected to fluctuate around one-third of urban residents' average disposable income, indicating a strong correlation between consumer purchasing power and liquor prices [2]. - Short-term demand for liquor reflects economic fluctuations and expectations, with product prices closely related to macroeconomic indicators such as PPI and excavator sales [3]. Summary by Sections Economic Indicators and Liquor Demand - The liquor industry is influenced by macroeconomic indicators, with PPI, excavator sales, and industrial profits reflecting business consumption demand, while CPI and disposable income indicate consumer purchasing needs [1]. - The correlation between liquor demand and economic activity suggests that tracking forward-looking indicators can provide insights into price and performance expectations [1]. Long-term and Short-term Price Dynamics - Moutai's price is expected to rise steadily within a reasonable range of residents' income levels, with historical data showing a strong relationship between Moutai prices and disposable income [2]. - In the short term, liquor prices are expected to respond to economic conditions, with a notable correlation between Moutai's wholesale price and PPI trends [3]. Investment Recommendations - As of mid-November, the wholesale price of Moutai is around 1,660 RMB, down 25% year-on-year, indicating a potential bottoming signal for the sector [3]. - Recommended stocks for investment include stable performers like Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Guizhou Moutai, with a focus on companies that have long-term growth potential [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][25]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $6 billion in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 38%, driven by strong performance in e-commerce, digital finance, and gaming, with respective growth rates of 35%, 61%, and 31% [1][9]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $874 million, corresponding to a profit margin of 15%, while the net profit reached $380 million, with a net profit margin of 6% [1][9]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to $22.8 billion, $28.6 billion, and $32.9 billion, reflecting increases of 5%, 8%, and 8% respectively [3][21]. E-commerce Business - E-commerce revenue for Q3 2025 was $4.3 billion, up 35% year-over-year, attributed to rapid GMV growth of 28% and an increase in monetization rate from 11.0% to 11.7% [2][12]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the e-commerce segment was $186 million, with a profit margin of 4.3%, impacted by increased logistics investments [2][12]. Digital Finance - The digital finance segment achieved revenue of $990 million in Q3 2025, a 61% increase year-over-year, primarily driven by credit business growth [15]. - The adjusted EBITDA for this segment was $258 million, with a profit margin of 26%, and the total receivables reached $7.9 billion, up 70% year-over-year [15]. Digital Entertainment - Digital entertainment revenue was $650 million in Q3 2025, reflecting a 31% year-over-year increase, with total game revenue reaching $840 million, a 51% increase [16]. - The company expects over 30% growth in game revenue for 2025, supported by successful titles and a growing user base [19]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of $16.82 billion for 2024, $22.76 billion for 2025, and $28.57 billion for 2026, with respective growth rates of 28.8%, 35.3%, and 25.5% [5][23]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is $1.737 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 288% compared to 2024 [5][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The probability of "stocks and bonds sharing the same origin" is increasing, and they are likely to be in sync with the nominal growth rate [22][34]. - The focus of the "same origin" lies in price elasticity and the impact of price changes on the stock and bond markets, with policy and market attention centered on demand - led non - food prices [38][47]. - The "anti - involution" policy is an important arrangement in the future, with clear long - term and short - term goals and implementation paths [60][61]. Summary by Directory "Stock - Bond Disconnection" - After "9.24" in 2024, both stocks and bonds were bullish under the stimulus of loose monetary policy. In 2025, there was a slight "seesaw" pattern between stocks and bonds, with stocks strong and bonds weak. The median return of a certain scale of interest - rate bond public funds was around 0.2%, and the stock index rose nearly 800 points while the interest rate only increased by 20 points [7][8]. - The reason for the "stock - bond disconnection" is that they have different driving factors. In 2025, the bond market's main line was the revision and adjustment of expectations, including policy and economic expectations [9][11][12]. Increasing Probability of "Stock - Bond Homology" - A stock bull market requires both PE and EPS. Currently, it seems to be in a period where EPS needs to take over. When the stock market focuses on EPS, the probability of stock - bond homology increases [22]. - In the past year or so, the main factor determining the rise and fall of long - term interest rates has been the term premium. Currently, the term premium is at a reasonable level, and the long - term interest rate center's rise and fall will return to fundamental factors such as growth or prices [32]. - When the stock index returns to EPS and the bond market level matches the current policy and fundamentals, the probability of stock - bond homology increases, and they are homologous to the nominal growth rate [34]. Focus of "Homology" - In terms of the 2035 goals, the real growth has limited elasticity, while prices still have elasticity. Industry profit changes are closely related to prices, which are crucial for the stock market, and whether to get out of deflation is crucial for the bond market [38]. - Policy and the market pay more attention to demand - led prices, especially non - food prices or core CPI. When food and non - food prices move in the same direction, the situation is clear; when they move in opposite directions, in - depth structural analysis is needed [47]. - Under neutral assumptions, there is a chance to get out of deflation, but the risk lies in whether the month - on - month can reach the neutral level of recent years. The trend is determined, and it is unlikely to return to the 2024 situation [50][51]. - The "anti - involution" policy is very important. In the short term, the implementation path is still under observation, while in the long term, the goals and implementation paths are clear. International experiences from the US and Japan can be used for reference, and in the short term, administrative production control may be used to improve industry profit margins [60][61][66].

Core Insights - The A-share market is at a critical turning point, transitioning from the "real estate-debt" old cycle to the "technology-innovation" new paradigm, mirroring the four pillars of the long bull market in the US stock market [3][5][6] - The new economic sectors are becoming the core drivers of ROE recovery, with the overall ROE for non-financial sectors in A-shares expected to rebound to 6.48% by Q3 2025, contrasting sharply with the deep losses in the real estate sector [3][7][18] - The economic structure and valuation paradigm are undergoing reconstruction, with hard technology becoming the new focus for capital allocation, as evidenced by the significant increase in market capitalization of sectors like electronics and biomedicine [3][4][24] - The investor ecosystem is shifting towards long-termism, driven by institutional changes that encourage value investing and stabilize the market [3][4][30] Group 1: Transition from Old to New Cycle - The A-share market is at a historical crossroads, moving away from the old real estate-debt driven model, with the current market volatility seen as a necessary pain in establishing a new growth paradigm [5][6] - The long bull market in the US is not a myth but is firmly based on technological innovation, institutional leadership, shareholder returns, and a survival-of-the-fittest mechanism, providing a clear blueprint for the future evolution of A-shares [6][17] Group 2: New Steady State of Profitability - A-share profitability is showing clear signs of bottoming out, with Q3 2025 ROE for non-financial sectors at 6.48%, up from 6.27% in Q2, driven primarily by improvements in net profit margins rather than increased leverage [7][8][10] - The recovery in profitability is not uniform but is concentrated in high-growth sectors like TMT and materials benefiting from policy changes, indicating a structural recovery led by new economic drivers [8][11][17] Group 3: Structural New Paradigm - The structural transformation of the Chinese capital market is deeply rooted in the continuity of supportive policies, with the technology sector's market capitalization surpassing all other styles during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [18][20] - The valuation system for the electronics sector has undergone significant reconstruction, reflecting a shift towards a narrative-driven or long-term value perspective, similar to the US market [22][24] Group 4: New Balance in Ecosystem - The funding ecosystem in the A-share market is highly differentiated, with institutional funds dominating core asset allocations, while small-cap and high-dividend sectors contribute to market diversity [30][32] - The ongoing optimization of the investor structure indicates a long-term trend towards maturity in the A-share market, with institutional reforms fostering a long-term investment mindset [33][36] Group 5: Awakening of Returns - The regulatory environment is shifting towards a focus on shareholder returns, with an increase in voluntary dividends and a significant rise in share buybacks, particularly cancellation buybacks, which enhance per-share value [38][39] - The rise in cancellation buybacks, with an expected total of 225.29 billion yuan in 2025, reflects a significant change in the value management awareness of A-share companies, supporting the long-term bull market narrative [39][41]

Group 1: Lithium Battery Materials - The lithium battery materials sector is experiencing a comprehensive price increase, with significant profit growth expected for related companies. As of November 13, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 131,000 CNY/ton, up approximately 110% from early October, with the highest price exceeding 142,000 CNY/ton [1][66] - The average price of electrolytes increased to 25,700 CNY/ton, a rise of 7,000 CNY/ton or 40% since early October. VC additives also saw an average price increase to 87,500 CNY/ton, up 4,100 CNY/ton or about 90% [1][66] - Companies to watch in the lithium battery sector include CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others, as their profitability is expected to significantly improve due to rising demand and prices [1][66] Group 2: Energy Storage Systems - The domestic energy storage system bidding has seen a substantial increase, with a cumulative bidding scale of 166.3 GWh from January to October, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 172% [2][90] - The average price for a 4-hour energy storage system has risen to 0.52 CNY/Wh, an increase of 0.06 CNY/Wh from the previous period. New energy storage installations reached 85.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 71% [2][90] - Key companies in the energy storage industry include Sungrow Power Supply, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand [2][90] Group 3: AI Data Center Capital Expenditure - Major internet companies are increasing capital expenditures to meet the explosive demand for AI and cloud computing. Google raised its 2025 capital expenditure guidance to between 91 billion and 93 billion USD, while Meta increased its guidance to 70 billion to 72 billion USD [3][23] - OpenAI plans to launch the "Stargate" data center in 2026, with a planned capacity exceeding 8 GW and an investment of over 450 billion USD in the next three years [3][24] - Companies to focus on in the AIDC power equipment sector include Jinpan Technology, New Special Electric, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the increased capital expenditure [3][24] Group 4: Power Equipment Sector - The power equipment sector is showing signs of recovery, with an increase in domestic equipment delivery and a revival in bidding for high-voltage and smart meters expected by the end of the year [3][35] - The third round of bidding for smart meters by the State Grid has shown a significant rebound in prices, with the total bid amount around 5.53 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 34% but an increase of 18% from the previous round [3][36] - Companies such as Sifang Co., Si Yuan Electric, and others are recommended for investment as they are likely to benefit from the improving market conditions [3][35][36] Group 5: Overall Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the recovery of the power equipment sector, the progress in green methanol industry layouts, the profit increase from lithium battery material price hikes, the advancement of solid-state battery industrialization, and the global demand for energy storage installations [4]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of "stocks and bonds being homologous" is increasing, and they are likely to be homologous to the nominal growth rate, which is of greater macro - significance to the country than the real growth rate [34] - When the stock index returns to EPS and the bond market level matches the current policy and fundamental aspects, the probability of stocks and bonds being homologous increases [34] - The overall long - term interest rate center's rise and fall will return to fundamental factors: growth or prices [32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs "Stock - Bond Disconnection" - After "9.24" in 2024, both stocks and bonds were bullish under the stimulus of loose monetary policy. In 2025, there was a "seesaw" form where stocks were strong and bonds were weak, with the median return of a certain scale of interest - rate bond public funds around 0.2%. The stock index rose nearly 800 points while the interest rate only increased by 20 points [7][8] - The reason for "stock - bond disconnection" is that they have their own driving main lines. In 2025, the driving factors of stocks and bonds were mostly different, but there was a common linkage effect during the anti - involution market from June to August [9][11] - The main line of the bond market in 2025 was the revision and adjustment of expectations, including the revision of policy expectations and economic expectations [12][17] "Increasing Probability of Stock - Bond Homology" - The bull market of stocks requires both PE and EPS. Currently, it seems to enter a period where EPS needs to take over. PE - driven stock markets tend to weaken the stock - bond seesaw effect, while EPS - driven ones strengthen it. When the stock market focuses on EPS, the probability of stock - bond homology increases [22] - The long - term interest rate's rise and fall in the past year was mainly determined by the term premium. Currently, the term premium is at a reasonable level, and the overall long - term interest rate center's rise and fall will return to fundamental factors such as growth or prices [32] - When the stock index returns to EPS and the bond market level matches the current policy and fundamental aspects, the probability of stocks and bonds being homologous increases [34] "What is the Focus of Homology?" - In terms of the 2035 goals, the real growth has limited elasticity, while prices still have elasticity. Industry profit changes are closely related to prices, which is crucial for the stock market. Whether to get out of deflation is crucial for the bond market [38] - Since 2016, there has been significant differentiation in the internal price trends. Non - food (or core) prices are more demand - driven, while food prices are more supply - driven. Monetary policy and market interest rates pay more attention to demand - dominated prices, especially non - food prices [41][43][47] - Under neutral assumptions, there is a possibility of getting out of deflation. The risk lies in whether the month - on - month data can reach the neutral level in recent years. The trend is determined, and it is unlikely to return to the 2024 pattern [50][51] - "Anti - involution" is an important policy arrangement. In the short - term, the implementation path is under observation, with the goal of improving the profit margins of key industries. In the long - term, the path is clear, aiming to establish a unified national market through mergers, reorganizations, and reforms [60][61] - In the short - term, administrative production control may be used to improve industry profit margins. Attention should be paid to whether there will be production control policies for anti - involution key industries, which account for over 30% of China's PPI [69][70]

Group 1 - The media sector has shown a significant upward trend in performance, with a year-to-date increase of 24.36% in the Shenwan Media Index, outperforming the CSI 300 by 10.35% [3][76] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the media sector achieved a total revenue of 387.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 32.1 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 5.41% and 37.18% respectively [3][16] - The current TTM-PE for the Shenwan Media Index is 44x, which is at the 80th percentile of the past five years, indicating a recovery in valuation [3][76] Group 2 - The gaming sector has benefited from a strong product cycle, with Q3 2025 revenues reaching 30.4 billion yuan and net profits of 4.6 billion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 28.60% and 111.65% respectively [4][29] - The popularity of collectible toys and IP-based products remains high, with the domestic market for IP economy projected to grow from 94.1 billion yuan in 2022 to 240.6 billion yuan by 2025, maintaining a growth rate of over 10% [112][118] Group 3 - The shift in policy direction is expected to positively impact the entertainment content industry, with ongoing improvements in content supply likely to stimulate demand recovery [5][127] - AI applications are rapidly penetrating the entertainment content industry, enhancing efficiency and return on investment in content production, thus creating new opportunities [5][127] Group 4 - Investment recommendations focus on sectors with strong growth potential, particularly in gaming and AI-driven content creation, with specific companies highlighted for their promising performance [6][111] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring product cycles and performance trends in the gaming sector, recommending companies such as Giant Network and 37 Interactive Entertainment [6][111]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][27][29] Core Views - The company has achieved a revenue of 77.322 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.41%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 11.24% to 1.404 billion yuan [1][9] - The subsidiary, H3C, benefited from the growth in AI demand, with its revenue increasing by 48.07% to 59.623 billion yuan in the same period. Domestic enterprise revenue grew by 62.55%, while international business revenue surged by 83.99% [1][9] - The company is focusing on the "Computing Power x Connectivity" strategy, launching new AI-driven products and solutions to meet industry demands [3][27] Financial Performance - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 13.72%, down 3.87 percentage points year-on-year. The third quarter gross margin was 11.32%, reflecting a decline due to the release of low-margin customized internet servers [2][14] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 2.23%, a decrease of 1.21 percentage points year-on-year, while the third quarter net profit margin was 1.46%, showing a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year [2][14] - The company has optimized its organizational structure and improved operational efficiency, resulting in a decrease in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios [2][14] Revenue Forecast - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are as follows: 18.2 billion yuan in 2025, 23.6 billion yuan in 2026, and 29.3 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 41, 31, and 25 [27][29] - The expected revenue for 2025 is 97.148 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 22.9% [4][22] Subsidiary Performance - H3C's revenue is projected to reach 71.439 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit margin of 5% [26]

Core Views - The report emphasizes that the metal industry is expected to see a rise in prices and profitability due to supply-demand dynamics and interest rate cuts, with a focus on industrial metals like copper and aluminum [5][6][10]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are projected to rise as the global copper market faces a supply shortage of approximately 1% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027, primarily due to the anticipated recovery of the Grasberg and Panama copper mines [5][23]. - The report notes that the Grasberg copper mine's production cut has led to a significant upward adjustment in copper price expectations, with a potential price increase from 79,000 CNY/ton to 82,000-83,000 CNY/ton [21][24]. - Aluminum profitability is expected to increase further, with China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization reaching 98%, indicating a tight supply-demand balance that could lead to price surges if demand exceeds expectations [5][30]. Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by factors such as weakening U.S. non-farm data, manageable inflation, and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower interest rates further [6][10]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has implemented an export quota system that could create a supply-demand gap of over 10% in the global cobalt market [7]. - The lithium industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle, with demand for energy storage batteries significantly exceeding previous forecasts, leading to a potential supply shortage if production does not keep pace [8]. Minor Metals - The strategic importance of rare earth metals is highlighted, with China maintaining a dominant position in global production and supply, which is expected to strengthen prices further [10]. - Tungsten prices may rise due to recovering overseas demand and relaxed export controls, while antimony prices are also expected to increase following recent export policy adjustments [11][12]. Uranium - The demand for uranium is projected to increase alongside the growth of nuclear power generation in China, with expectations of a significant rise in nuclear capacity by 2035 [13]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests a selection of stocks across various metal sectors, including copper, aluminum, precious metals, energy metals, and minor metals, indicating a diversified investment strategy [14].