证券研究报告 | 2026年02月25日 优于大市 纺织服装海外跟踪系列六十九 亚玛芬2025年收入增长27%，2026管理层指引收入增长16-18% |  行业研究·行业快评 | | |  纺织服饰 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 丁诗洁 | 0755-81981391 | dingshijie@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040004 | | 证券分析师： | 刘佳琪 | 010-88005446 | liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070003 | 事项： 公司公告：2026年2月24日，亚玛芬体育（Amer Sports）披露截至2025年12月31日的2025财年及第四季度 业绩：2025财年收入同比增长27%至65.66亿美元，调整后净利润进一步增长至5.45亿美元（2024年：2.36 亿美元）；2025年第四季度收入同比增长28%至21.01亿美元，调整后净利润为1.76亿美元（2024年Q4：0.9 亿美元）。 国信纺服观 ...

|  行业研究·行业快评 | | |  纺织服饰 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 丁诗洁 | 0755-81981391 | dingshijie@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040004 | | 证券分析师： | 刘佳琪 | 010-88005446 | liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070003 | 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月25日 优于大市 纺织服装海外跟踪系列六十九 亚玛芬2025年收入增长27%，2026管理层指引收入增长16-18% 事项： 公司公告：2026年2月24日，亚玛芬体育（Amer Sports）披露截至2025年12月31日的2025财年及第四季度 业绩：2025财年收入同比增长27%至65.66亿美元，调整后净利润进一步增长至5.45亿美元（2024年：2.36 亿美元）；2025年第四季度收入同比增长28%至21.01亿美元，调整后净利润为1.76亿美元（2024年Q4：0.9 亿美元）。 国信纺服观 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target valuation range of 50.00 - 59.00 HKD [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading global automotive parts supplier, benefiting from a diversified product portfolio and a strong global customer base. It is positioned to capitalize on the AI-driven industrial upgrade [1][13]. - The company has established itself as the largest supplier of battery boxes and body structural components, with a focus on innovation and product development supported by stable cash flow [1][2]. - The company is expanding into new business areas such as robotics, liquid cooling, and low-altitude operations, leveraging its existing capabilities and customer relationships [3][13]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a comprehensive global footprint with 77 factories and offices, serving over 80 automotive brands across 14 countries [1][18]. - It has a strong market position in exterior automotive parts, with a focus on aluminum, plastic, and metal components [1][17]. Business Segments - **Exterior Parts**: The company maintains a leading position in the global market for body trim and roof racks, with a projected revenue of 16.27 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a 6% year-on-year growth [1][4]. - **Battery Boxes**: The company is a major player in the battery box market, with expected revenue of 5.3 billion CNY in 2024, capturing over 30% of the European market [2][4]. - **Robotics and Liquid Cooling**: The company is actively developing products in robotics and liquid cooling, with strategic partnerships to enhance its offerings in these emerging markets [3][13]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates significant growth in net profit over the next five years, with projections of 2.8 billion CNY in 2025, 3.25 billion CNY in 2026, and 3.72 billion CNY in 2027, representing growth rates of 20%, 16%, and 14% respectively [4][3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 20.52 billion CNY in 2023 to 34.41 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 16.1% [4][3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a diversified customer base, reducing reliance on any single client, and is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for electric vehicles and related components [18][36]. - The company’s strategic focus on lightweight and intelligent components aligns with industry trends towards electrification and automation in the automotive sector [13][17].

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月25日 基金投资价值分析 一键布局有色全赛道——南方中证申万有色金属 ETF 投资价 值分析 一键布局有色全赛道 近期有色板块调整并非趋势终结：有色金属板块近期出现短期波动，但市场 基本已消化了特朗普提名沃什为下一任美联储主席的冲击，降息仍是大方 向，贵金属根本逻辑并未改变，各金属品种的定价有望回归基本面。 宏观、供需、资金维度均支撑贵金属定价：宏观层面，美联储开启降息周期， 全球流动性转向宽松，直接利好有色金属价格；从供需来看，历史上央行购 金与黄金价格存在较强相关性，近年来央行购金快速提升，支撑金价表现； 此外，黄金投资价值的提升吸引了大量投资者涌入以 ETF 计价的黄金市场。 新兴产业的发展为工业金属提供大量新增需求：在产业层面，人工智能、新 能源这些新兴产业的发展远远超出市场预期，新兴领域的发展成为需求增长 的新引擎，比如 AI 数据中心建设、电网升级、新能源转型等，这为铜、铝 等金属带来了需求弹性、打开长期需求增长空间。 南方中证申万有色金属 ETF（512400）是南方基金发行的一只以跟踪中证 申万有色金属指数为目标的 ETF 基金，基金经理为崔蕾女士，是市场上有 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月25日 基金投资价值分析 一键布局有色全赛道——南方中证申万有色金属 ETF 投资价 值分析 一键布局有色全赛道 近期有色板块调整并非趋势终结：有色金属板块近期出现短期波动，但市场 基本已消化了特朗普提名沃什为下一任美联储主席的冲击，降息仍是大方 向，贵金属根本逻辑并未改变，各金属品种的定价有望回归基本面。 宏观、供需、资金维度均支撑贵金属定价：宏观层面，美联储开启降息周期， 全球流动性转向宽松，直接利好有色金属价格；从供需来看，历史上央行购 金与黄金价格存在较强相关性，近年来央行购金快速提升，支撑金价表现； 此外，黄金投资价值的提升吸引了大量投资者涌入以 ETF 计价的黄金市场。 新兴产业的发展为工业金属提供大量新增需求：在产业层面，人工智能、新 能源这些新兴产业的发展远远超出市场预期，新兴领域的发展成为需求增长 的新引擎，比如 AI 数据中心建设、电网升级、新能源转型等，这为铜、铝 等金属带来了需求弹性、打开长期需求增长空间。 中证申万有色金属指数投资价值分析 中证申万有色金属指数（000819.SH）发布于 2012 年 5 月 9 日，指数从沪 深市场申万有色金属及非 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月25日 基金投资价值分析 一键布局有色全赛道——南方中证申万有色金属 ETF 投资价 值分析 一键布局有色全赛道 近期有色板块调整并非趋势终结：有色金属板块近期出现短期波动，但市场 基本已消化了特朗普提名沃什为下一任美联储主席的冲击，降息仍是大方 向，贵金属根本逻辑并未改变，各金属品种的定价有望回归基本面。 宏观、供需、资金维度均支撑贵金属定价：宏观层面，美联储开启降息周期， 全球流动性转向宽松，直接利好有色金属价格；从供需来看，历史上央行购 金与黄金价格存在较强相关性，近年来央行购金快速提升，支撑金价表现； 此外，黄金投资价值的提升吸引了大量投资者涌入以 ETF 计价的黄金市场。 新兴产业的发展为工业金属提供大量新增需求：在产业层面，人工智能、新 能源这些新兴产业的发展远远超出市场预期，新兴领域的发展成为需求增长 的新引擎，比如 AI 数据中心建设、电网升级、新能源转型等，这为铜、铝 等金属带来了需求弹性、打开长期需求增长空间。 中证申万有色金属指数投资价值分析 证券分析师：张欣慰 证券分析师：杨昕宇 截至 2026 年 2 月 11 日，中证申万有色金属指数的市盈率为 3 ...

第 1页 共 5页 第 2页 共 5页 一、研究背景评估 | 项目 | 说明 | | --- | --- | | 研究机构 | 国信证券经济研究所 | | | 具备中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格，专注于行业与公司研究。 | | 1. 权威性说明 | 专业资质：分析师张向伟、杨苑均具备证券投资咨询执业资格，研究体系规范。 | | 2. | 数据来源：引用国家统计局、Euromonitor、公司公告、海关总署、USDA 等权威数据源。 | | 3. | 连续跟踪：长期发布食品饮料行业周报、专题报告，对银发经济与健康食品有深度积累。 | | 4. | 机构背书：国盛证券（原文中提及，但报告为国信证券）为持牌金融机构，报告服务于机构投资者。 | | 样本数量 | 宏观数据分析，非抽样统计。覆盖银发人口、燕麦行业、公司经营等多维度数据。 | | 研究时间范围 2025 | 年及未来预测，数据更新至 2025 年末，并展望至 2027 年，具备强时效性。 | | 报告性质 | 行业专题研究报告，聚焦银发经济中的食品饮料机会，并以西麦食品为例深度分析。 | 二、范围与边界确认 | 研究维度 | 具体范围 | | -- ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the anticipated upward trend in convertible bonds following the Spring Festival, with a significant probability of price increases due to favorable market conditions and investor sentiment [9][10]. - The insurance industry is expected to see an increase in equity investments, with the proportion of equity assets reaching a four-year high, indicating a shift towards riskier assets amid a stable regulatory environment [12][13]. - The company "遇见小面" (Meet Noodle) is positioned as a leader in the standardized operation of Chinese noodle restaurants, with ambitious expansion plans and a projected revenue growth of 44.2% in 2024 [14][15]. Market Overview - The report provides a snapshot of major market indices, showing a mixed performance across different regions, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4117.40 points, up by 0.86% [2]. - The fixed income market is experiencing a stable environment, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.79%, reflecting a slight decrease, indicating a favorable climate for bond investments [8]. Company and Industry Analysis - "遇见小面" aims to expand its store count to 503 by 2025, representing a 39.7% increase, with a focus on both direct and franchise models [14][15]. - The Chinese noodle restaurant market is projected to grow to 326 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.0%, highlighting the sector's growth potential [15]. - The insurance sector's total investment income is expected to improve, driven by a higher allocation to equity assets, with the overall investment return rate anticipated to remain favorable [12][13]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that investors should focus on sectors such as battery production and semiconductor equipment, which are expected to benefit from increased production and demand in the coming months [9]. - The company "遇见小面" is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of approximately 1.25 to 1.4 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant increase compared to previous years [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [4] Core Insights - The emotional narrative is driving the evolution of consumer concepts, with pet consumption in China transitioning from basic survival needs to a focus on health and emotional resonance, indicating a significant upgrade in pet consumption [1][15] - The domestic pet ownership demographic is rapidly expanding, particularly among young, educated individuals, which is expected to further stimulate both physical product consumption and service consumption in the pet industry [1][24] - The pet food sector is experiencing a transformation driven by emotional narratives, with domestic brands upgrading and new channels collaborating effectively, leading to a stronger market position for established brands [1][4] - The pet medical market is still in its infancy in China, with significant room for growth as the aging pet population drives demand for medical services, and the low chain rate of veterinary hospitals presents consolidation opportunities for leading chains [2][4] - The pet supplies segment is witnessing opportunities in niche markets and brand transformation, with essential products like cat litter showing potential for expansion and new brands gaining market share through high-end positioning [2][4] Summary by Sections Pet Food - The emotional narrative is reshaping the consumer landscape, with domestic brands enhancing their market presence through trust and professional endorsements [1][4] - The market is expected to undergo a phase where quality brands will prevail, as the industry moves towards a "good money drives out bad money" scenario [1][4] Pet Medical - The pet medical market is still young, with significant expansion potential driven by the aging pet population and the adoption of scientific pet care concepts [2][4] - The current low chain rate of veterinary hospitals indicates a fragmented market, with leading chains likely to consolidate market share based on supply chain and talent advantages [2][4] Pet Supplies - The segment is focusing on niche opportunities and brand transformation, with essential products like cat litter showing long-term growth potential [2][4] - Leading domestic manufacturers are accelerating their transformation by building proprietary brands and enhancing distribution capabilities, which is expected to significantly increase their market share [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][5][7] Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, with specific commodities showing signs of price stabilization and potential upward trends [1][3][4] - The USDA's February supply and demand report indicates adjustments in global inventory levels for various crops, impacting market dynamics [1][2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - Global corn production is forecasted to decrease by 1 million tons to 1.296 billion tons, with a reduction in ending stocks ratio by 0.17 percentage points to 22.21% [14][15] - Domestic corn prices are at historical lows, with a current price of 2318 CNY/ton, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.56% and a year-on-year increase of 7.12% [17] Soybeans - The USDA report predicts a 2.5 million ton increase in global soybean production, with ending stocks rising by 1.1 million tons to 126 million tons, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 29.55% [33][34] - Domestic soybean meal prices are showing strong support, with expectations for Brazilian soybean supply to increase post-March 2026 [35] Wheat - Global wheat production is expected to decrease by 370,000 tons, with ending stocks ratio down by 0.10 percentage points to 33.68% [47][48] - Domestic wheat prices are currently at 2531 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.78% [50] Sugar - The market anticipates a stable supply of sugar due to favorable weather conditions, with prices expected to remain weak [2][4] Cotton - Global cotton production is projected to decline, while demand is expected to rise, maintaining a loose supply-demand balance [2][4] Beef - The report forecasts a stable upward trend in U.S. beef prices, with a projected decrease in production for 2026 [3][4] - Domestic beef prices are expected to stabilize due to reduced supply and increased demand [3] Dairy - U.S. milk ending stocks are slightly adjusted upwards, with expectations for domestic milk prices to rise due to supply constraints [3][4] Pork - U.S. pork production is expected to increase slightly, with prices anticipated to remain high [4][6] Poultry - The U.S. chicken market is expected to recover, with domestic demand supporting price stabilization [6][4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include leading companies in livestock, pork, poultry, and feed sectors, such as YouRan Agriculture and MuYuan [5][7]