Group 1 - In the fourth week of January, the total net outflow of funds was 148.3 billion, compared to a net inflow of 173.9 billion in the previous week [1][8] - The short-term sentiment indicator is at a high level since 2005, with the recent weekly turnover rate (annualized) at 627%, placing it in the 90th percentile historically [1][12] - The long-term sentiment indicator is at a medium-low level since 2005, with the recent A-share risk premium at 2.48%, in the 46th percentile historically [2][12] Group 2 - The top three industries by trading volume percentage in the past week were semiconductor (99%), non-ferrous metals (98%), and defense industry (97%), while the lowest were food processing (0%), transportation (0%), and real estate (1%) [2][14] - The highest financing transaction percentage industries were machinery equipment (86%), electric power equipment (82%), and social services (79%), while the lowest were banking (14%), non-bank financials (20%), and real estate (20%) [2][14]

Core Views - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry, indicating a positive outlook despite challenges from rising raw material prices and market competition [1][5][11]. Raw Material Price Impact - Recent increases in copper and aluminum prices have raised concerns about the profitability of leading white goods manufacturers. However, historical analysis shows that the negative impact of raw material cost increases on gross margins has diminished over time. For instance, during previous cycles from 2008 to 2022, the maximum quarterly gross margin decline for leading white goods companies was 5-7 percentage points in 2009-2011, around 5 percentage points in 2016-2017, and only about 2 percentage points in 2020-2022. The current price increases are expected to have a lesser impact, with an anticipated gross margin decline of less than 2 percentage points [1][17][18]. Production and Demand Trends - In January and February 2026, the total production of white goods in China was 23.79 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.1%. However, the cumulative production decline for the first two months is expected to be around 5%. The production performance has shown signs of recovery compared to a more than 10% decline in Q4 2025. The demand is expected to stabilize due to the effects of national subsidy policies [2][24]. Retail Market Performance - The retail market for home appliances in China is projected to decline by 4.3% in 2025, with a total retail scale of 893.1 billion yuan. Specific categories such as air conditioners and refrigerators are expected to see declines of 0.4% and 11.5%, respectively, while small kitchen appliances are expected to grow by 3.8% [2][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment based on their performance and market position. For white goods, companies like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Home, and Hisense Home Appliances are highlighted. In the small appliance sector, Stone Technology, Bear Electric, and New Treasure are recommended. For black goods, TCL Electronics and Hisense Visual are suggested [3][12][50]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, indicating that Midea Group is expected to have an EPS of 5.84 yuan in 2025 and 6.43 yuan in 2026, with a PE ratio of 13 for 2025. Haier Smart Home is projected to have an EPS of 2.27 yuan in 2025 and 2.53 yuan in 2026, with a PE ratio of 11 for 2025 [4][50].

Group 1 - In the fourth week of January, the total net outflow of funds was 148.3 billion, compared to a net inflow of 173.9 billion in the previous week [1][8] - The short-term sentiment indicator is at a high level since 2005, with the recent weekly turnover rate (annualized) at 627%, placing it in the 90th percentile historically [1][12] - The long-term sentiment indicator is at a medium-low level since 2005, with the recent A-share risk premium at 2.48%, in the 46th percentile historically [2][12] Group 2 - The top three industries by trading volume percentage in the past week were semiconductor (99%), non-ferrous metals (98%), and defense industry (97%), while the lowest were food processing (0%), transportation (0%), and real estate (1%) [2][14] - The highest financing transaction percentage industries were machinery equipment (86%), electric power equipment (82%), and social services (79%), while the lowest were banking (14%), non-bank financials (20%), and real estate (20%) [2][14]

- The quantitative factors that performed well in the broker gold stock pool over the past month include total market capitalization, single-quarter net profit growth rate, and analyst net upgrade ratio[3][30] - The quantitative factors that performed poorly in the broker gold stock pool over the past month include post-earnings announcement gap excess, single-quarter ROE, and intraday return rate[3][30] - The broker gold stock performance enhancement portfolio achieved an absolute return of 11.47% and an excess return of 4.15% relative to the partial equity hybrid fund index for the period from January 5, 2026, to January 30, 2026[5][43] - The broker gold stock performance enhancement portfolio ranked in the 16.69th percentile among active equity funds for the period from January 5, 2026, to January 30, 2026[5][43] - The broker gold stock index achieved a return of 7.60% for the period from January 5, 2026, to January 30, 2026, compared to a return of 7.32% for the partial equity hybrid fund index over the same period[24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the tumor gene testing industry [1] Core Insights - The tumor gene testing industry is on a fast development track, with significant international transactions and domestic regulatory innovations occurring since Q4 2025. The market is expected to expand significantly as applications for tumor MRD and multi-cancer early screening mature [2][6] - Exact Sciences is a leading company in colorectal cancer screening, projecting revenues of $3.22 to $3.235 billion for 2025, representing a growth of 16.7% to 17.2%. The company aims for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% from 2022 to 2027 [2][18] - Natera is recognized as a leader in minimal residual disease (MRD) testing, with its core product, Signatera, achieving a sample volume of over 200,000 in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 54% [2][68] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring technological advancements and the positioning of leading companies in the tumor gene testing sector [2] Summary by Sections 1. Tumor Gene Testing Industry Overview - The tumor gene testing sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant stock price increases for leading companies such as Natera (52%), Exact Science (78%), Guardant (221%), and Grail (464%) in 2025 [2][6] - The market is projected to expand significantly, with potential market sizes for early screening (multi-cancer MCED and colorectal cancer) estimated at $40-50 billion, MRD at $15-20 billion, and companion diagnostics/treatment guidance at $3-5 billion [11][12] 2. Exact Sciences: Colorectal Cancer Screening Leader - Exact Sciences has established a robust medical ecosystem with a testing capacity exceeding 10 million annually. Its core product, Cologuard, has a brand recognition rate of over 90% [18] - The company anticipates maintaining a revenue growth rate of 15% and aims for an adjusted EBITDA margin exceeding 20% by 2027 [18][24] - Cologuard's future growth drivers include rescreening, addressing care gaps, pricing increases for the Plus version, and expanding into younger demographics [45][48] 3. Natera: Leader in MRD Testing - Natera's MRD product, Signatera, is pivotal in assessing treatment efficacy and guiding clinical decisions, with a significant focus on ctDNA mutation detection [2][68] - The company is expanding its presence in women's health and organ health, while also entering the colorectal cancer screening market [2][68] 4. Domestic Company Landscape and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the innovative developments from domestic companies such as Aide Biology, BGI, and Mirxes, which are making strides in lung cancer MRD products and multi-cancer early screening [2] - The report suggests monitoring the technological advancements and market positioning of these domestic leaders as the industry evolves [2]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月31日 2026年02月02日 ETF 周报 上周科创芯片 ETF 规模突破 680 亿元，沪深 300 净赎回超 2400 亿元 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 指数业绩摘要上周（2026 年 01 月 26 日至 2026 年 01 月 30 日，下同）股 票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为-1.20%。宽基 ETF 中，上证 50ETF 涨跌幅 中位数为 1.13%，收益最高。按板块划分，大金融 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 0.06%，收益最高。按主题进行分类，酒 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 2.39%，收益 最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 3247.33 亿元，总体规模减少 3609.35 亿元。 在宽基 ETF 中，上周科创板 ETF 净赎回最少，为 9.35 亿元；按板块来 看，周期 ETF 净申购最多，为 386.15 亿元；按热点主题来看，芯片 ETF 净申购最多，为 111.56 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类、上证 50ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板 块来看，大金融、消费 ETF 的估值分位 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the defense and military industry is "Outperform the Market" [2][6]. Core Insights - SpaceX's application to launch over 1 million satellites aims to establish the world's first "orbital data center system," targeting global AI computing infrastructure and services for billions of users [3][5]. - The focus of commercial aerospace is shifting from satellite internet to space computing, with significant growth expected in space photovoltaic and laser communication sectors due to the high energy demands of space computing [3][8]. - The development of space computing is anticipated to ignite a new wave of rocket launches, leading to substantial growth in the entire rocket manufacturing and launching industry [9]. Summary by Sections SpaceX's Satellite Launch Application - SpaceX plans to deploy over 1 million satellites to create an orbital data center, providing AI computing capabilities and utilizing solar energy to reduce costs [3][5]. - The satellites will be deployed in layers at altitudes of 500 km, 1000 km, and 2000 km, using laser links for inter-satellite and ground communication [3]. Market Opportunities - The space photovoltaic market is expected to expand significantly, with gallium arsenide batteries being the mainstream technology, while silicon and perovskite batteries may also play crucial roles [7]. - Laser communication is essential for large-scale satellite constellations, with recent advancements in China indicating a shift from technology validation to practical applications [7]. Rocket Launch Demand - To support the deployment of space computing, the demand for rocket launches is projected to grow explosively, with estimates suggesting thousands of new rockets will be needed [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3] Core Insights - The report draws parallels between the current gold price fluctuations and the "gold rush" of April 2013, suggesting that significant price drops can lead to increased consumer demand for gold products [4][6] - The report highlights that while the short-term market sentiment remains influenced by gold price volatility, the long-term growth logic of the industry is shifting towards product innovation, craftsmanship, and cultural storytelling, leading to "alpha returns" [6][26] Summary by Sections Market Overview - Recent gold price fluctuations have seen a rise of 12.28% by January 29, followed by a drop of 8.35% on January 30, raising concerns about their impact on retail sales in the gold jewelry sector [4] - The "gold rush" in 2013 was characterized by a significant increase in retail sales growth, reaching 72.16% in April 2013, which continued for several months [4][11] Historical Context - The report references the 2013 gold price drop, which led to a surge in gold purchases, significantly boosting the annual performance of companies like Luk Fook Holdings, which reported a revenue increase of 43.3% and a net profit increase of 50% for the fiscal year following the rush [12][4] Current Market Dynamics - The current gold price fluctuations share commonalities with the 2013 cycle, including a prolonged price increase before the drop, which may lead to a similar consumer buying frenzy [5] - However, the structural differences in the current market indicate that the driving forces behind gold purchases are more focused on long-term asset allocation and wealth preservation rather than short-term speculative gains [5][18] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests two main investment directions: 1. Companies like Caibai Co., which have dual business lines in investment gold bars and jewelry, and Luk Fook Holdings, which has a competitive pricing advantage and strong operations in Hong Kong and Macau [6][26] 2. Leading companies with strong product design and differentiation capabilities, such as Laopuhuangjin, Chaohongji, and Chow Tai Fook, which have shown significant growth in recent years [6][26] Consumer Behavior Insights - The report indicates that consumer demand for gold products is becoming less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations, with a focus on personal enjoyment and cultural recognition driving purchases [22][25] - Notably, companies with differentiated branding and product positioning have achieved high growth rates even in a high gold price environment, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards valuing design and craftsmanship [22][25]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月02日 黄金珠宝系列专题九 应对金价波动，以复盘对比 2013 年"抢金潮"为参考 优于大市 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 |  | 商贸零售·专业连锁Ⅱ |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张峻豪 | 021-60933168 | zhangjh@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980517070001 | | 证券分析师： | 柳旭 | 0755-81981311 | liuxu1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522120001 | | 证券分析师： | 孙乔容若 | 021-60375463 | sunqiaorongruo@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090004 | 事项： 近期，金价出现较大幅度波动，美东时间 COMEX 黄金开年至 1 月 29 日涨幅为 12.28%，但 1 月 30 日单日录 得跌幅 8.35%。市场较为关心金价波动如何影响黄金珠宝终端零售。本篇报告以 2013 年"抢金潮"为镜鉴， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (from January 26, 2026, to January 30, 2026), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was -1.20%. Among broad-based ETFs, the Shanghai 50 ETF had the highest return with a median change of 1.13%. Among sector ETFs, the large financial sector ETF had the highest return with a median change of 0.06%. Among thematic ETFs, the liquor ETF had the highest return with a median change of 2.39% [1][12][16]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 324.733 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 360.935 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF had the least net redemption of 9.35 billion yuan. Among sector ETFs, the cyclical ETF had the most net subscriptions of 386.15 billion yuan. Among thematic ETFs, the chip ETF had the most net subscriptions of 111.56 billion yuan [2][27][30]. - As of last Friday, the top three fund companies in terms of the total scale of listed, non-monetary ETFs were Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai-PineBridge. This week, four ETFs, namely the E Fund CSI All-Share Dividend Quality ETF, GF Hang Seng Biotech ETF, Bosera CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Thematic ETF, and E Fund CSI Battery Thematic ETF, will be issued [5][52][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - The median weekly return of equity ETFs was -1.20%. Among broad-based ETFs, the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, ChiNext, A500, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs had median changes of 1.13%, 0.09%, -0.10%, -0.62%, -2.54%, -2.57%, and -2.94% respectively. Commodity, bond, cross-border, and money market ETFs had median changes of 4.56%, 0.04%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively [1][12]. - Among sector ETFs, the large financial, technology, consumer, and cyclical sector ETFs had median changes of 0.06%, -2.28%, -2.57%, and -3.61% respectively. Among thematic ETFs, the liquor, dividend, and AI ETFs had median changes of 2.39%, 1.78%, and 0.80% respectively, performing relatively strongly, while the military, new energy vehicle, and robot ETFs had median changes of -8.82%, -7.04%, and -5.65% respectively, performing relatively weakly [16]. ETF Scale Changes and Net Subscriptions/Redeemptions - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross-border, and bond ETFs were 3.1726 trillion yuan, 1.0544 trillion yuan, and 725.5 billion yuan respectively. Commodity and money market ETFs had relatively smaller scales of 346.9 billion yuan and 153.7 billion yuan respectively. Among broad-based ETFs, the CSI 300 and A500 ETFs had larger scales of 610 billion yuan and 276.5 billion yuan respectively, while the Science and Technology Innovation Board, CSI 500, ChiNext, Shanghai 50, and CSI 1000 ETFs had relatively smaller scales [17]. - Among sector ETFs, the technology sector ETF had a scale of 551.3 billion yuan as of last Friday, followed by the cyclical sector ETF with a scale of 351.7 billion yuan. The consumer and large financial ETFs had relatively smaller scales. Among popular thematic ETFs, the chip, securities, and pharmaceutical ETFs had the highest scales as of last Friday [25]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 324.733 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 360.935 billion yuan. The money market ETF had a net subscription of 1.68 billion yuan, and the overall scale increased by 1.82 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF had the least net redemption of 9.35 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 67.28 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 ETF had the most net redemption of 244.613 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 243.808 billion yuan [27]. - Among sector ETFs, the cyclical ETF had the most net subscriptions of 386.15 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 315.50 billion yuan, while the large financial ETF had the least net subscriptions of 20.62 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 16.09 billion yuan. Among thematic ETFs, the chip ETF had the most net subscriptions of 111.56 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 69.73 billion yuan, while the AI ETF had the most net redemptions of 25.26 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 16.69 billion yuan [30]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and A500 ETFs were at the 83.33%, 87.54%, 99.50%, 99.42%, 66.75%, and 97.23% quantiles respectively, and the price-to-book ratios were at the 63.94%, 74.38%, 99.50%, 82.43%, 68.15%, and 97.23% quantiles respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the current price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios of the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF have been at the 90.26% and 81.02% quantiles respectively [33][35]. - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of the cyclical, large financial, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the 91.75%, 23.35%, 24.01%, and 97.61% quantiles respectively, and the price-to-book ratios were at the 89.27%, 45.13%, 31.60%, and 95.38% quantiles respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of the consumer ETF decreased significantly [39]. - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratio quantiles of the photovoltaic, military, and chip ETFs were relatively high, at 99.34%, 98.51%, and 97.61% respectively. The price-to-book ratio quantiles of the AI, robot, and dividend ETFs were relatively high, at 100.00%, 96.78%, and 94.22% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of the new energy vehicle ETF decreased significantly [42]. - Overall, among broad-based ETFs, the ChiNext and Shanghai 50 ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles. Among sector ETFs, the large financial and consumer ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles. Among thematic ETFs, the liquor and new energy vehicle ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles [44]. ETF Margin Trading and Short Selling - Overall, the margin trading balance and short selling volume of equity ETFs have both increased in the past year. As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs decreased from 56.364 billion yuan in the previous week to 55.044 billion yuan, and the short selling volume decreased from 2.237 billion shares in the previous week to 2.211 billion shares [45]. - Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchases and short selling volumes from last Monday to Thursday, the CSI 500 ETF and CSI 300 ETF had relatively high average daily margin trading purchases, and the CSI 1000 ETF and Shanghai 50 ETF had relatively high average daily short selling volumes [47][48][51]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs, with a relatively high management scale in multiple sub - sectors such as scale index ETFs, thematic, style, and strategy index ETFs, and cross - border ETFs. E Fund ranked second, with a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and cross - border ETFs. Huatai - PineBridge Fund ranked third, with a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and thematic, style, and strategy index ETFs [52]. - Last week, 10 new ETFs were established. This week, four ETFs, namely the E Fund CSI All - Share Dividend Quality ETF, GF Hang Seng Biotech ETF, Bosera CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Thematic ETF, and E Fund CSI Battery Thematic ETF, will be issued [54].