证券研究报告 | 2025年11月06日 中国宏桥（01378.HK） 电解铝权益产能增加，山东宏桥三季度盈利环比增长 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 有色金属·工业金属 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 刘孟峦 | 010-88005312 | liumengluan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040001 | | 证券分析师： | 焦方冉 | 021-60933177 | jiaofangran@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522080003 | 事项： 公司公告：2025 年三季度，上市公司境内发债主体山东宏桥营业收入 387.2 亿元（同比+1.8%，环比+1.8%）， 净利润 69 亿元（同比+15.8%，环比+13.0%）。前三季度山东宏桥净利润 193.7 亿元，经营性净现金流高 达 241 亿元。 国信金属观点：假设 2025-2027 年铝现货含税均价为 20600/21500/21500 元/吨（原值 20500 元/吨），氧化 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Department Store (600729.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [5][24]. Core Views - The retail business is under short-term pressure due to adjustment rhythms, but investment income from immediate consumer finance is steadily growing. For the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 11.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.56%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 999 million yuan, an increase of 7.38% [1][3]. - The company has implemented its first interim dividend since listing, distributing a cash dividend of 0.1589 yuan per share, totaling approximately 70 million yuan, which accounts for 7.74% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [1][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q3, the company reduced its number of stores by 7, with 5 supermarkets and 2 automotive trade stores closed. Revenue in Chongqing for various sectors showed declines: department stores -8.29%, supermarkets -3.83%, electrical appliances -10.00%, automotive trade -23.62%, and others -9.07% [2]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2025 were 26.50% and 6.15%, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.13 and 0.99 percentage points year-on-year. The increase in gross margin is driven by adjustments in supermarkets and electrical appliances [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.39 billion, 1.467 billion, and 1.525 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9, 8, and 8 times [3][4]. - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 18.985 billion yuan in 2023, 17.139 billion yuan in 2024, 15.391 billion yuan in 2025, 15.733 billion yuan in 2026, and 15.962 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a decline in the initial years followed by slight growth [4][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing ongoing operational pressure, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025. Revenue decreased by 34.1% to 550 million, and net profit fell to -70 million, a decline of 601.0% [1]. - The company is actively exploring new growth opportunities by transforming its offline stores into a new model combining "technology products + quick-effect massage," launching the "Light Relaxation Moment" health management brand, and leveraging innovative technologies in product development [2][3]. - The gross profit margin has decreased by 5.9 percentage points to 60.9% in Q3, indicating pressure on profitability due to fixed costs and declining revenues [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to have a total revenue of 835 million, a decrease of 23.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of -54 million, reflecting a significant decline of 622.3% [4][26]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in revenue and profitability from 2026 onwards, with expected net profits of 25 million in 2026 and 48 million in 2027, indicating a turnaround [4][25]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be -48.1 for 2025, reflecting the current challenging operating environment [4][27].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][24] Core Insights - The new generation ATTC platform is expected to address the toxicity and resistance issues associated with traditional ADCs, with potential for combination therapy with chemotherapy as a first-line standard treatment [2][3][23] - HMPL-A251 is the first candidate drug from the ATTC platform expected to enter clinical trials in Q4 2025, combining PI3K/PIKK inhibitors with HER2 antibodies [2][7][23] - The PAM pathway is identified as a promising target for broad tumor treatment, and the ATTC platform aims to expand the therapeutic window for targeted therapies [2][12][23] - The company's later pipeline is progressing smoothly, with clinical data for surufatinib in first-line PDAC expected to be presented at the ESMO Asia conference, and the SAFFRON study of savolitinib combined with osimertinib has completed patient enrollment [2][23] Summary by Sections ATTC Platform - The ATTC platform aims to overcome the toxicity and resistance challenges of traditional ADCs by targeting specific mutations, potentially reducing chemotherapy toxicity and enabling combination therapy [3][23] - HMPL-A251, the first clinical candidate from the ATTC platform, is designed to effectively inhibit the PAM pathway and has shown strong anti-tumor activity in HER2-positive models [7][8][12] Clinical Development - HMPL-A251 has received IND approval in the US, with the Chinese IND under review, and is expected to start Phase 1 clinical trials in Q4 2025 [8][12] - The clinical strategy includes enrolling HER2-positive or low-expressing patients and retrospective testing for PAM status [8][10] Future Pipeline - Besides HMPL-A251, two additional ATTC candidates (HMPL-A580 and HMPL-A830) are expected to enter global clinical stages in 2026 [12][23] - The PAM pathway is highlighted as a significant target due to its role in various cancers, with existing therapies showing limited clinical benefits due to associated toxicity [12][15]

Group 1: Real Estate Industry - The real estate industry is expected to face continued pressure in 2025, with new home sales declining by 13% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching a historical low comparable to Q3 2019 [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of income confidence for the mid-term price trends in real estate, indicating that an income confidence index above 50 is necessary for stable housing prices [9] - Investment strategies suggest waiting for market stabilization and focusing on structural opportunities, recommending companies with low historical burdens and conservative price-to-book ratios [10] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry has shown significant growth, with a 25.1% year-on-year increase in global sales in Q3 2025, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of growth [25] - The report highlights that the profitability of semiconductor companies continues to improve, with a net profit growth of 80.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [24] - Investment recommendations focus on storage and self-controlled industrial chains, with specific companies like Jiangbolong and Zhaoyi Innovation suggested for their potential in the rising market [26] Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector has experienced a mixed performance, with the A-share food and beverage index down by 0.29% but outperforming the broader market [19] - The report identifies a divergence in performance among categories, with liquor facing challenges while dairy and beverage segments show signs of recovery [18] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the beverage sector, such as Nongfu Spring and Eastroc Beverage [19] Group 4: Social Services Industry - The social services sector has underperformed the market, with a year-to-date increase of only 4.95% compared to the broader index [20] - The report notes a significant reduction in fund holdings within the sector, reaching historical lows, indicating a cautious outlook [20] - Investment strategies suggest focusing on sectors showing signs of recovery, such as tourism and education, with specific companies recommended for their growth potential [22] Group 5: AI and Cloud Computing - The AI and cloud computing sectors are experiencing rapid growth, with major cloud providers significantly increasing their capital expenditures to support AI infrastructure [11][12] - The report indicates that cloud service providers contribute approximately 50% of Nvidia's data center revenue, with expectations for substantial growth in global data center investments [12] - Investment recommendations include leading AI cloud platform companies like Microsoft, Google, and Alibaba, as well as chip suppliers like Nvidia [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5][35] Core Insights - The report highlights that Adidas' revenue for Q3 2025 increased by 12% year-on-year, with management raising the full-year performance guidance due to strong brand momentum and better-than-expected business performance [3][7][35] - The company achieved a net profit of €4.85 billion in Q3, with a total revenue of €66.30 billion for the quarter, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [2][7] - All regions and channels experienced double-digit growth in the first three quarters, excluding the impact of Yeezy [3][4][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached €66.30 billion, a 3% increase year-on-year, while the main brand's revenue grew by 12% at constant currency [2][7] - Gross margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 51.8%, and operating profit rose by 23% to €736 million [7][26] - Net financial expenses amounted to €86 million, influenced by currency fluctuations and hyperinflation [32][33] Regional Performance - Revenue growth varied by region, with Europe showing a 12% increase, North America at 8%, and Latin America leading with a 21% increase [10][11] - The Greater China region saw a 10% revenue increase, benefiting from localized strategies [10][11] - Emerging markets reported a 13% revenue growth, demonstrating resilience despite local challenges [10][11] Product Category Performance - Apparel led growth with a 16% increase, while footwear grew by 11% [21][23] - Accessories saw a modest growth of 1%, primarily due to supply chain adjustments in North America [21][23] - Performance categories grew by 17%, driven by strong sales in running and football products [21][22] Channel Performance - Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channels grew by 14%, with e-commerce leading the growth at 15% [25][26] - Wholesale channels also performed well, with a 10% increase in revenue [25][26] Management Guidance - Management raised the full-year revenue growth forecast to approximately 9%, with operating profit expected to reach around €2 billion [30][35] - The guidance reflects confidence in the brand's ongoing momentum and the ability to offset increased costs from U.S. tariffs [30][35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3]. Core Views - The company is experiencing ongoing operational pressure, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025. Revenue decreased by 34.1% to 550 million, and net profit dropped by 601.0% to -70 million. The third quarter alone saw a revenue decline of 28.5% to 170 million, with net profit losses expanding [1][3]. - The company is actively exploring new growth opportunities by transforming its offline stores into a new model that combines "technology products + quick-effect massage." The launch of the "Light Relaxation Moment" health management brand aims to enhance customer traffic and revenue [2][3]. - The company's gross margin has decreased by 5.9 percentage points to 60.9% in Q3, with rising expense ratios impacting profitability. The net profit margin for Q3 fell by 12.1 percentage points to -17.7% [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to have a total revenue of 835 million, a decrease of 23.1% year-on-year. The net profit is expected to be -54 million, reflecting a significant decline of 622.3% [4][26]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in revenue and profitability from 2026 onwards, with projected net profits of 25 million in 2026 and 48 million in 2027, indicating a turnaround [4][25]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 60% from 2025 to 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to improve as new business models and products are rolled out [20][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chengdu Xian Dao (688222.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [5][3]. Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 370 million yuan (+23.98%) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 93 million yuan (+208.34%) [8][3]. - The core business and self-developed pipeline are progressing smoothly, with clinical trials for HG146 targeting solid tumors advancing well [19][3]. - The "DEL+AI+Automation" platform has shown promising results, enhancing drug discovery and optimization processes [20][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 370 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.98%, and a net profit of 93 million yuan, up 208.34% [8][3]. - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 143 million yuan (+37.89%) and net profit of 43 million yuan (+114.98%) [8][3]. - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 54.9%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 25.1%, up 15 percentage points [13][3]. Business Development - The core business has seen continuous growth, with an increase in commercial projects and successful collaborations with global partners [19][3]. - The DEL and FBDD/SBDD segments have achieved milestone payments from various projects [23][3]. - The company has initiated two new self-developed projects, leveraging the "DEL+AI+Automation" platform for drug discovery [20][3]. Future Outlook - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 505 million yuan, 608 million yuan, and 744 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 18.3%, 20.5%, and 22.3% respectively [3][4]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 103 million yuan, 124 million yuan, and 152 million yuan, with growth rates of 99.7%, 20.5%, and 22.6% respectively [3][4]. - The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 94.4, 78.3, and 63.9 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4].

- The report does not contain any information about quantitative models or factors

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision (002415.SZ) is "Outperform the Market" [5]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, Hikvision's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20.31% year-on-year, indicating continuous improvement in operational quality [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 657.58 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 1.18%, and a net profit of 93.19 billion yuan, up 14.94% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 45.67%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.13 percentage points [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities reached a historical high of 136.97 billion yuan, growing by 426% year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, revenue was 239.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.66% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.81% [1]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 36.62 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 20.31% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.19% [1]. - The total accounts receivable and notes receivable decreased to 359.69 billion yuan by the end of Q3, down 4.664 billion yuan from the beginning of the year [1]. Business Adjustments and Growth - The domestic main business adjustments are showing results, with revenue decline in the SMBG segment narrowing to single digits, and both gross profit and net profit showing positive year-on-year growth [2]. - International markets, excluding the US, Canada, and India, are experiencing good revenue growth, with overseas non-project revenue accounting for about 30% [2]. - Innovation businesses, including Hikvision Robotics and automotive electronics, are achieving high growth rates [2]. AI and Product Development - AI models are being integrated into various products, enhancing operational efficiency and expanding application scenarios in industrial settings [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing product structures and adjusting expenses, leading to a slight increase in gross margin and a decrease in expense ratio [3]. Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - Capital expenditures are expected to decline as past investments have met development needs, and shareholder returns remain stable with cash dividends of 10.096 billion yuan and share buybacks totaling 2.028 billion yuan over the past year [3]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 137.6 billion yuan, 152.1 billion yuan, and 169.7 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.2, 20.1, and 18.0 [3][4].