Economic Goals - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5.0%, down from approximately 5% in 2025, reflecting a focus on quality over quantity in economic development[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate is projected to rise to 5.04% by 2026, exceeding the actual GDP growth target range for the first time, indicating a shift towards addressing low inflation and promoting price recovery[7] Fiscal Policy - The total scale of the broad deficit for 2026 is 11.89 trillion yuan, with a broad deficit rate of approximately 8.1%, slightly down from 8.4% in the previous year[11] - The fiscal deficit rate remains at 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year[11] - Special government bonds are set at 1.6 trillion yuan, with 800 billion yuan allocated for "two重" construction and 2.5 trillion yuan for consumer goods replacement programs[12] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will continue to be "moderately loose," with expectations for one reserve requirement ratio cut (50 basis points) and one interest rate cut (10-15 basis points) throughout the year[20] - The focus will be on maintaining ample liquidity to support fiscal efforts, with potential adjustments based on economic conditions[19] Domestic Demand Expansion - The government emphasizes building a strong domestic market, with 2.5 trillion yuan allocated for consumer goods replacement and the introduction of a 1 trillion yuan fiscal-financial collaborative fund to stimulate consumption[26] - Central budget investment is planned at 755 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing effective investment growth and guiding private capital towards high-tech and modern service sectors[26] Real Estate Policy - The focus for 2026 is on stabilizing the real estate market, with measures to control inventory and encourage the purchase of existing homes for affordable housing[37] - The market is expected to continue facing downward pressure, with a projected decline in sales area but at a reduced rate compared to previous years[37]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilient growth in Q4 2025, with revenue reaching 15.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 16.7% [1][9] - The company's Non-GAAP net profit for Q4 was 3.48 billion CNY, reflecting a 14.7% increase, also exceeding expectations [1][9] - The overall performance in Q4 was strong, with the overseas Trip.com platform maintaining high growth rates during peak season, indicating effective market share acquisition [1][9] - The company is focusing on optimizing user experience and enhancing revenue from transportation services, while domestic hotel prices have stabilized [2][10] - Regulatory developments regarding antitrust investigations and the impact of AI technology on the OTA business model are key areas of focus [3][11] Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2025, accommodation booking revenue was 6.29 billion CNY (+21.4%), transportation ticketing revenue was 5.37 billion CNY (+12.3%), and vacation revenue was 1.06 billion CNY (+21.4%) [2][10] - Domestic revenue is estimated to have grown at a high single-digit rate, with hotel night growth between 10-15% [2][10] - The Trip.com platform saw a 60% increase in hotel and flight bookings, contributing to a rise in sales expense ratio to 28.1% [2][10] Financial Forecasts - For 2025, the company expects total revenue of 62.4 billion CNY (+17.1%) and Non-GAAP net profit of 31.84 billion CNY, which includes non-recurring investment gains of 19.9 billion CNY from the sale of Makemytrip shares [1][9] - The forecast for Non-GAAP net profit for 2026 and 2027 has been adjusted to 20 billion CNY and 23 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook due to regulatory concerns and AI impacts [4][12] - The company maintains a robust buyback program with a total of 5 billion USD, which supports shareholder returns [3][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilient growth in Q4 2025, with revenue reaching 15.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 16.7% [1][9] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q4 was 3.48 billion CNY, reflecting a 14.7% increase, also exceeding expectations [1][9] - The company is focusing on optimizing user experience and expanding its market share, particularly in the overseas Trip.com platform, which continues to show strong growth [2][10] - Regulatory developments regarding antitrust investigations and the impact of AI technology on the OTA business model are key areas of focus [3][11] Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2025, accommodation booking revenue was 6.29 billion CNY (+21.4%), transportation ticketing revenue was 5.37 billion CNY (+12.3%), and vacation revenue was 1.06 billion CNY (+21.4%) [2][10] - Domestic hotel prices have stabilized, and the company is actively targeting both older and younger demographics to enhance its market share [2][10] - The Trip.com platform saw a 60% increase in hotel and flight bookings, contributing to a rise in sales expense ratio to 28.1% [2][10] Financial Forecasts - For 2026 and 2027, the company has adjusted its Non-GAAP net profit forecasts to 20 billion CNY and 23 billion CNY, respectively, with a new estimate for 2028 at 26.5 billion CNY [4][12] - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 19.7% for 2024, 17.1% for 2025, and 14.1% for 2026 [5][13] - The company maintains a robust cash position, with cash and cash equivalents expected to reach 46.45 billion CNY in 2025 [13]

Macro and Strategy - The February PMI data indicates a decline in manufacturing activity, primarily due to the extended Spring Festival holiday, with new export orders showing a notable decrease, reflecting a cooling in external demand [7] - The rise in oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, is expected to push inflation higher, increasing the likelihood of a positive PPI in the first half of the year [7] - Attention is drawn to the upcoming National People's Congress meeting for policy direction, with a projected GDP growth target of 4.5%-5.0% for the year [7] Chemical Industry - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to elevate the risk premium and transportation costs for oil, leading to a higher baseline price for crude oil [8] - The attack on Qatar's energy facilities has caused a surge in European natural gas prices, impacting the European chemical industry [8] - Domestic refining companies are less affected by the Iranian conflict due to ample crude oil inventories [8] - Recommended stocks include oil and gas producers such as China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil, as well as chemical companies like Sinochem International and Wanhua Chemical, which may benefit from rising energy prices [8] Metal Industry - The drag from the real estate sector on copper and aluminum demand has significantly reduced, with potential for demand growth if real estate data rebounds [9] - Emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and electronic equipment continue to drive demand for copper and aluminum [9] - Some downstream sectors remain weak, but domestic demand policies are expected to boost related sectors [9] Company Analysis: Weixing Co., Ltd. - Weixing Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 4.787 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.41%, while net profit decreased by 8.38% to 642 million yuan [13] - The fourth quarter showed a recovery in revenue growth, but profits were pressured by increased foreign exchange losses and rising depreciation [14] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in orders and a potential easing of negative impacts from tariffs and exchange rates in 2026 [14] Company Analysis: MINIMAX-WP - MINIMAX-WP reported a revenue of $79.04 million for 2025, a 159% year-on-year increase, driven by significant growth in AI-native products [16] - The adjusted loss rate narrowed significantly, with gross margin improving to 25% due to enhanced model efficiency and optimized infrastructure [16] - The company plans to focus on programming, office applications, and multi-modal content creation in 2026, anticipating rapid growth in token consumption [17][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][18]. Core Insights - The company experienced significant revenue growth in 2025, with total revenue reaching $79.04 million, a year-on-year increase of 159%. AI-native product revenue was $53.07 million, up 143%, accounting for 67.2% of total revenue [1][9]. - The company has a strong international presence, with 73% of its revenue coming from overseas, an increase of 3 percentage points year-on-year. It serves over 236 million users across more than 200 countries and regions [1][9]. - The adjusted loss for 2025 was $250.86 million, with a loss margin narrowing to 317%, a significant improvement of 483 percentage points year-on-year. Gross margin improved to 25%, up 13 percentage points, driven by enhanced model and system efficiency [1][9]. - The company plans to focus on programming, office applications, and multimodal creation in 2026, aiming for significant advancements in AI capabilities [3][17]. Financial Overview - As of the end of 2025, the company had a cash balance of $1.05 billion, which includes cash and cash equivalents of $510 million and financial assets valued at $510 million [2][10]. - Revenue projections for 2026 to 2028 are $250 million, $645.8 million, and $1.29 billion, respectively, with adjustments of 21%, 26%, and no change for the respective years [4][21]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2026 to 2028 is -$330 million, -$320 million, and -$160 million, showing a slight improvement from previous estimates [4][21]. Business Model and Growth Drivers - The company’s three-modal technology is highlighted as a key competitive advantage, with the B2B open platform identified as a core growth engine [4][18]. - The rapid increase in token consumption, particularly in programming packages, indicates strong demand for the company's AI capabilities, with a reported increase of over 10 times in token consumption from these packages [3][16]. - The company is expected to enhance its product offerings in programming and office applications, aiming to replicate the rapid advancements seen in the programming sector [17].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

========= - The report tracks the dividend progress of constituent stocks in major indices as of March 4, 2026, including the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index[2][15] - The dividend yield comparison of industry constituent stocks shows that the banking, coal, and steel industries rank top three in terms of dividend yield[3][16] - The realized and remaining dividend yields for major indices as of March 4, 2026, are provided, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index having a remaining dividend yield of 2.80%, the CSI 300 Index 2.14%, the CSI 500 Index 1.14%, and the CSI 1000 Index 0.89%[4][18] - The futures contracts' premium and discount tracking as of March 4, 2026, shows the annualized discount rates for IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts[5][14] - The methodology for calculating index dividend points is introduced, including the estimation of constituent stock weights, net profit prediction, dividend payout ratio prediction, and ex-dividend date prediction[10][44][45][47] - The accuracy of the index dividend point calculation is analyzed, showing that the model has high prediction accuracy for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and CSI 300 Index, with errors around 5 points, and slightly larger errors for the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index, around 10 points[62][66] - The report includes charts showing the historical premium and discount levels of main futures contracts, the dividend progress of major indices, and the prediction accuracy of index dividend points[19][21][23][37][38][39][42][63][69][71][75][77][79] =========

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月04日 2 月 PMI 数据解读 节日效应带动生产回落 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 王奕群 | 0755-81982462 | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525110002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 2 月份，制造业 PMI、非制造业 PMI 分别为 49.0%和 49.5%，分别环比下降 0.3 个百分点和环比上升 0.1 个 百分点。 评论： 图1：中国 PMI 主要数据一览 | | | PMI | | 企业规模 | | 生产 | | 需求 | 库存 | | | 价格 | 配送 | 就业 | 预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月03日 2026年03月04日 公司研究·公司快评 纺织服饰·纺织制造 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 丁诗洁 0755-81981391 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980520040004 证券分析师： 刘佳琪 010-88005446 liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523070003 事项： 公司公告：2026 年 3 月 2 日，公司公布 2025 年业绩快报，全年营收 47.87 亿元，同比增长 2.41%，归母 净利润 6.42 亿元，同比下降 8.38%。 国信纺服观点：1）第四季度收入端复苏，利润端承压，主要受汇兑损失增加、利息收入减少及折旧上升 影响，2025Q4 实现营业收入 11.55 亿元，同比增长 5.50%，环比 Q3 的 0.86%增速有明显改善；实现归母净 利润 0.58 亿元，同比下降 24.03%。2）风险提示：终端需求疲软、新客户开拓不及预期、国际贸易风险； 3）投资建议：看好公司订单景气度回暖以及中长期份额扩张潜力。2025 年公司经营受宏观环境及关税扰 ...

伟星股份（002003.SZ） 2025 年四季度收入增速回升，汇率波动致利润承压 公司研究·公司快评 纺织服饰·纺织制造 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 丁诗洁 0755-81981391 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980520040004 证券分析师： 刘佳琪 010-88005446 liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523070003 事项： 公司公告：2026 年 3 月 2 日，公司公布 2025 年业绩快报，全年营收 47.87 亿元，同比增长 2.41%，归母 净利润 6.42 亿元，同比下降 8.38%。 国信纺服观点：1）第四季度收入端复苏，利润端承压，主要受汇兑损失增加、利息收入减少及折旧上升 影响，2025Q4 实现营业收入 11.55 亿元，同比增长 5.50%，环比 Q3 的 0.86%增速有明显改善；实现归母净 利润 0.58 亿元，同比下降 24.03%。2）风险提示：终端需求疲软、新客户开拓不及预期、国际贸易风险； 3）投资建议：看好公司订单景气度回暖以及中长期份额扩张潜力。2025 年公司经营受 ...