证券研究报告 | 2025年11月04日 金融工程日报 沪指缩量收跌，银行股逆势攀升 市场表现：今日(20251104) 大部分指数处于下跌状态，规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较好，板块指数中上证综指表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指 数表现较好。银行、纺织服装、电力公用事业、消费者服务、煤炭行业表现 较好，有色金属、医药、电新、基础化工、国防军工行业表现较差。两岸融 合、福建省国资、冰雪旅游、美丽中国、央企银行等概念表现较好，肝素钠、 黄金精选、CRO、铅锌矿、多肽药等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：今日收盘时有 67 只股票涨停，有 11 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票 今日收盘收益为 2.60%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-3.53%。今日封板率 67%，较前日下降 4%，连板率 24%，较前日下降 7%。 市场资金流向：截至 20251103 两融余额为 24948 亿元，其中融资余额 24770 亿元，融券余额 178 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.5%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 10.8%。 折溢价：20251103 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是创新 100ETF，ETF 折价较多的是国 证 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the insurance industry [4][5][40]. Core Views - The insurance industry has shown strong performance in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by a recovery in the capital market and improvements in both asset and liability sides [3][40]. - The investment business remains a key factor for valuation recovery, with a focus on optimizing product structures and enhancing operational efficiency [3][40]. - The industry is preparing for the 2026 "New Year" with strategies to adapt to changes in interest rates and regulatory updates [3][40]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - As of the end of Q3 2025, five listed insurance companies in A-shares achieved a total net profit of CNY 426.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.5% [1][11]. - Major companies like China Life and New China Life reported net profit growth of 60.5% and 58.9%, respectively [1][11]. Life Insurance Sector - The new business value for life insurance companies continued to grow rapidly, with increases of 41.8% for China Life and 76.6% for New China Life [1][12]. - The adjustment of preset interest rates and the establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism have led to improved asset-liability coordination [1][18]. Property and Casualty Insurance - The property and casualty insurance sector saw a steady increase in premium income, with a total of CNY 859.64 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [2][26]. - The combined ratio (COR) for major companies improved, with China Life's COR at 96.1%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [2][33]. Investment Performance - Investment returns have significantly recovered, with total investment yields for major companies reaching 8.6% for New China Life and 6.42% for China Life, marking increases of 1.8 and 1.04 percentage points, respectively [2][38]. - The allocation of assets has been optimized, with a focus on long-term bonds and equity investments, capitalizing on market opportunities [2][38]. Future Outlook - The insurance industry is expected to continue benefiting from a stable recovery in the capital market, with a focus on enhancing the proportion of floating yield products to mitigate risks [3][40]. - Companies are advised to pay attention to China Life, China Ping An, and China Property Insurance as potential investment opportunities [3][40].

Market Overview - In October, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index remained unchanged, while the public utility index increased by 4.47% and the environmental index rose by 2.58% [1][16] - Among the 31 first-level industry categories, public utilities and environmental sectors ranked 5th and 8th in terms of growth [1][43] - In the electricity sector, thermal power increased by 10.98%, hydropower by 4.01%, and gas by 6.39% [1][44] Important Events - On October 30, the Ministry of Commerce issued guidelines to support the use of green low-carbon development in foreign trade, promoting the use of renewable energy and sustainable fuels in international shipping [2][17] - The guidelines encourage foreign trade enterprises to develop and utilize recycled resources and biodegradable materials [2][17] Sector Performance - The thermal power sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 906.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.48%, while net profit increased by 15.03% to 71.12 billion yuan [3][18] - The hydropower sector's revenue was 148.76 billion yuan, down 1.39%, with net profit rising by 1.73% to 51.32 billion yuan [3][22] - Wind power revenue decreased by 2.80% to 117.16 billion yuan, with net profit down 12.15% to 22.03 billion yuan [3][25] - The photovoltaic sector saw revenue of 26.10 billion yuan, a decline of 16.55%, but net profit increased by 55.77% to 2.90 billion yuan [3][28] - Nuclear power revenue was 164.08 billion yuan, up 1.76%, but net profit fell by 12.39% to 16.58 billion yuan [3][32] - The gas sector's revenue was 234.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.78%, with net profit down 5.49% to 10.25 billion yuan [3][36] Investment Strategy - For thermal power, it is recommended to invest in major companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric due to stable profitability [4][41] - In the renewable energy sector, companies such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy are recommended for their potential steady earnings growth [4][41] - Nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are expected to maintain stable profits [4][41] - High-dividend hydropower stocks like Yangtze Power are highlighted for their defensive attributes [4][41] - In the gas sector, Jiufeng Energy is recommended for its capabilities in marine gas trading [4][41] - The environmental sector is advised to focus on companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities, which are entering a mature phase with improved cash flow [4][42]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][17]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue, with a 52% year-on-year decrease in Q3 2025, and a 13.87% decline in total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 [1][3]. - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and promoting sales, particularly in the mid-range price segment, as demand pressures continue [1][3]. - The company is expected to maintain aggressive marketing expenditures to stabilize market share despite the revenue pressures [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported total revenue of 2.545 billion yuan, down 51.65% year-on-year, and a net profit of 299 million yuan, down 74.56% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 79.83%, an increase of 1.96 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 10.57 percentage points [2][3]. - The company’s operating cash flow showed significant pressure, with a net cash flow from operating activities of -1.527 billion yuan, a 214.46% year-on-year decline [2][3]. Earnings Forecast and Financial Indicators - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 20.111 billion yuan, 20.567 billion yuan, and 22.220 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -14.7%, +2.3%, and +8.0% respectively [3][4]. - The expected net profit for the same period is 4.512 billion yuan, 4.555 billion yuan, and 5.038 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -18.2%, +0.9%, and +10.6% respectively [3][4]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2025 and 2026 is projected to be 18.7 and 18.5 respectively [3][4].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 8.6% in October, while the Nasdaq Internet Index remained flat with a monthly increase of 0.6% [11] - The valuation of the Hang Seng Tech Index remained stable with a PE-TTM of 22.85x, positioned at the 29.2% percentile since its inception [16] - The Nasdaq Index also maintained its valuation with a PE-TTM of 42.30x, at the 74.09% percentile over the past decade [18] AI Developments - Google launched the Veo 3.1 video generation model, enhancing character consistency and multi-scene storytelling capabilities [22] - OpenAI's ChatGPT ecosystem reached 800 million weekly active users, marking a significant milestone in AI adoption [27] - Microsoft introduced its first self-developed image generation model, MAI-Image-1, entering the top ten in the LMArena rankings [30] Industry Dynamics - The domestic gaming revenue in Q3 2025 declined by 4% year-on-year, while the number of domestic game approvals remained high [47] - In the fintech sector, the reserve funds of payment institutions grew by 5% year-on-year in September [49] - E-commerce platforms reported significant growth during the Double Eleven sales event, with Douyin e-commerce seeing a 500% increase in live sales [53] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on AI-driven companies, recommending Tencent, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Baidu, Meitu, and Tencent Music, which are expected to benefit from improved operational efficiency [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the return on investment (ROI) from significant capital expenditures (CAPEX) by major companies [3] Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Tencent Holdings is rated "Outperform" with a projected EPS of 23.69 for 2025 and a PE of 24.78 [4] - Alibaba is also rated "Outperform" with a projected EPS of 0.00 for 2025 and a PE of 22.12 [4] - Kuaishou is rated "Outperform" with a projected EPS of 4.07 for 2025 and a PE of 16.88 [4]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月04日 互联网行业 2025 年 11 月投资策略 优于大市 AI 驱动海外巨头三季报亮眼，关注巨额资本开支下 ROI 表现 10 月行情回顾：10 月恒生科技指数单月下降 8.6%。同期，纳斯达克互 联网指数 10 月基本持平，单月涨幅为 0.6%。个股方面，互联网多数股 票股价表现不一致，港股方面，阅文集团、金山软件、美团为本月表现 前三的股票，美股方面，谷歌、亚马逊、英伟达为本月表现前三的股票。 从市盈率看，恒生科技指数估值较上月基本持平，PE-TTM 为 22.85x， 处于恒生科技指数成立以来 29.2%分位点。纳斯达克指数估值较上月基 本持平，PE-TTM 为 42.30x，处于近 10 年 74.09%分位点。 人工智能动态：1）谷歌：发布 Veo 3.1 视频生成模型，Gemini Canvas 推出 新功能；2）OpenAI：ChatGPT 应用生态正式上线，Sora 路线图重大更新；3） 微软：发布首款自研图像生成模型，Copilot 功能上新；4）Meta：政策重大 调整，推出 RAG 新技术；5）Anthropic：推出 Claude"skills"功 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (003816.SZ) is "Outperform the Market" [6][20]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 59.723 billion, a decrease of 4.09% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 8.576 billion, down 14.14% year-on-year, primarily due to increased market-based electricity sales and declining electricity prices [9][11]. - The total electricity generation from the company's operational nuclear units reached 182.822 billion kWh, an increase of 2.67% year-on-year, with grid electricity sales at 172.179 billion kWh, up 3.17% year-on-year [9][11]. - The cancellation of the variable cost compensation for nuclear power in Guangdong is expected to lead to a rebound in electricity prices, with an estimated increase of approximately CNY 0.04/kWh in market-based prices starting in 2026 [2][17]. - The adjustment of the value-added tax policy for nuclear power is not expected to have a significant impact on profitability in the short term [3][19]. - The completion of the asset injection of Huizhou Nuclear Power is a significant development, with the company acquiring 82% of Huizhou Nuclear Power and 100% of its subsidiaries [3][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 20.556 billion, a decrease of 10.21% year-on-year but an increase of 7.40% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for the same period was CNY 2.624 billion, down 8.81% year-on-year and down 10.32% quarter-on-quarter [9][11]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 33.5%, a decrease of 3.17 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 21.58%, down 3.31 percentage points year-on-year [11][18]. Future Outlook - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be CNY 9.41 billion, CNY 10.75 billion, and CNY 11.73 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -13%, 14%, and 9% [20][22]. - The company is managing 28 operational units with a total installed capacity of 31.796 million kW and has 20 units under construction, representing 44.46% of the national total capacity [16][22]. Market Conditions - The market-based electricity price in Guangdong is expected to rebound due to the cancellation of the variable cost compensation mechanism, which is anticipated to positively impact the company's performance in 2026 [2][17]. - The company’s stock is currently priced at CNY 4.01, with a market capitalization of CNY 202.499 billion [6][21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][24]. Core Views - The company achieved a 37% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by increased hydropower generation and new energy storage projects coming online [1][8]. - The company is nearing a period of intensive production with a total installed capacity of 10.58 million kilowatts in pumped storage and 10 ongoing projects, which are expected to contribute significantly to future revenue [2][19]. - The new energy storage sector is anticipated to grow rapidly, supported by national policies aiming for an installed capacity of over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, which will drive direct investments of approximately 250 billion yuan [2][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.72%, and a net profit of 1.433 billion yuan, up 37.13% [1][8]. - In Q3 2025 alone, revenue reached 2.019 billion yuan, reflecting a 25.59% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 601 million yuan, marking a 43.41% increase [1][8]. - The growth was primarily attributed to increased hydropower generation and contributions from new energy storage projects [1][8]. Project Development - As of September 2025, the company has a total installed capacity of 10.58 million kilowatts in pumped storage, with 10 projects under construction, including significant projects in Guangdong and Guangxi [2][19]. - The first unit of the Meizhou Phase II project was commissioned in August 2025, with plans for full production by the end of the year [2][19]. Market Outlook - The national plan for new energy storage aims for a significant increase in capacity by 2027, which is expected to enhance market mechanisms and encourage participation in energy markets [2][24]. - The company is positioned as a key player in the new energy storage sector, which is expected to see rapid growth due to supportive government policies [2][24]. Profitability and Valuation - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 1.591 billion yuan, 1.916 billion yuan, and 2.186 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 41%, 20%, and 14% [3][24]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the upcoming years are 25, 21, and 18 times [3][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][21][26] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 61.635 billion yuan, an increase of 8.16% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.42% to 8.002 billion yuan. The decline in net profit is attributed to the pressure from the new energy business, which saw revenue growth without profit increase, as well as dilution effects from issuing REITs and market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps [1][7][15] - The company has a steady growth in installed capacity, with 26 operational nuclear units and a total capacity of 25 million kilowatts, alongside 19 units under construction or awaiting approval with a capacity of 21.859 million kilowatts [2][19] - Recent adjustments to VAT policies for nuclear and wind power are expected to have minimal short-term impact on nuclear profitability, as the actual VAT refunds are not anticipated due to prior input tax deductions [3][20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total operating revenue of 61.635 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.16%, and a net profit of 8.002 billion yuan, down 10.42% [1][7] - The third quarter alone saw revenues of 20.662 billion yuan, up 5.72% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 23.45% to 2.336 billion yuan [1][7] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by an increase in power generation, while net profit decline is influenced by various factors including falling electricity prices and rising costs [1][15] Installed Capacity and Construction - As of September 30, the company has 26 operational nuclear units with a total capacity of 25 million kilowatts and 19 units under construction with a capacity of 21.859 million kilowatts [2][19] - The company also has 3,348.47 MW of operational renewable energy capacity, including 1,049.13 MW of wind power and 2,299.34 MW of solar power [2][19] Policy Adjustments - The recent VAT policy changes for wind and nuclear power are set to take effect from November 1, 2025, with a 50% immediate refund for offshore wind power sales. Existing nuclear units will continue under the previous policy, while new approvals post-November will not benefit from the same tax relief [3][20] Profit Forecasts - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 9.230 billion, 10.007 billion, and 11.089 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 5%, 8%, and 11% [4][21]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月04日 特宝生物（688278.SH） 优于大市 核心产品派格宾慢乙肝功能性治愈适应症获批 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所预测 注：摊薄每股收益按最新总股本计算 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 医药生物·生物制品 证券分析师：马千里 证券分析师：陈曦炳 S0980521070001 S0980521120001 三季度营收维持环比双位数增长。2025 年前三季度，公司实现营收 24.80 亿元（+26.9%），归母净利润 6.66 亿元（+20.2%）。 分季度看，2025Q1/Q2/Q3 分别实现营收 6.73/8.37/9.69 亿元（分别同 比+23.5%/+29.9%/+26.7%，Q2/Q3 分别环比+24.3%/+15.7%）,归母净 利润 1.82/2.46/2.38 亿元（分别同比+41.4%/+40.0%/-4.6%，Q2/Q3 分 别环比+34.9%/-3.1%）。 核心产品派格宾慢乙肝功能性治愈适应症获批。2025 年 10 月 13 日，公司 聚乙二醇干扰素α-2b 注射液（商品名：派格宾）获得国家药监局批准联合 核苷（酸）类似物用于成人慢性乙型 ...