证券研究报告 | 2026年01月31日 2026年02月02日 ETF 周报 上周科创芯片 ETF 规模突破 680 亿元，沪深 300 净赎回超 2400 亿元 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 指数业绩摘要上周（2026 年 01 月 26 日至 2026 年 01 月 30 日，下同）股 票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为-1.20%。宽基 ETF 中，上证 50ETF 涨跌幅 中位数为 1.13%，收益最高。按板块划分，大金融 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 0.06%，收益最高。按主题进行分类，酒 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 2.39%，收益 最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 3247.33 亿元，总体规模减少 3609.35 亿元。 在宽基 ETF 中，上周科创板 ETF 净赎回最少，为 9.35 亿元；按板块来 看，周期 ETF 净申购最多，为 386.15 亿元；按热点主题来看，芯片 ETF 净申购最多，为 111.56 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类、上证 50ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板 块来看，大金融、消费 ETF 的估值分位 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the defense and military industry is "Outperform the Market" [2][6]. Core Insights - SpaceX's application to launch over 1 million satellites aims to establish the world's first "orbital data center system," targeting global AI computing infrastructure and services for billions of users [3][5]. - The focus of commercial aerospace is shifting from satellite internet to space computing, with significant growth expected in space photovoltaic and laser communication sectors due to the high energy demands of space computing [3][8]. - The development of space computing is anticipated to ignite a new wave of rocket launches, leading to substantial growth in the entire rocket manufacturing and launching industry [9]. Summary by Sections SpaceX's Satellite Launch Application - SpaceX plans to deploy over 1 million satellites to create an orbital data center, providing AI computing capabilities and utilizing solar energy to reduce costs [3][5]. - The satellites will be deployed in layers at altitudes of 500 km, 1000 km, and 2000 km, using laser links for inter-satellite and ground communication [3]. Market Opportunities - The space photovoltaic market is expected to expand significantly, with gallium arsenide batteries being the mainstream technology, while silicon and perovskite batteries may also play crucial roles [7]. - Laser communication is essential for large-scale satellite constellations, with recent advancements in China indicating a shift from technology validation to practical applications [7]. Rocket Launch Demand - To support the deployment of space computing, the demand for rocket launches is projected to grow explosively, with estimates suggesting thousands of new rockets will be needed [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3] Core Insights - The report draws parallels between the current gold price fluctuations and the "gold rush" of April 2013, suggesting that significant price drops can lead to increased consumer demand for gold products [4][6] - The report highlights that while the short-term market sentiment remains influenced by gold price volatility, the long-term growth logic of the industry is shifting towards product innovation, craftsmanship, and cultural storytelling, leading to "alpha returns" [6][26] Summary by Sections Market Overview - Recent gold price fluctuations have seen a rise of 12.28% by January 29, followed by a drop of 8.35% on January 30, raising concerns about their impact on retail sales in the gold jewelry sector [4] - The "gold rush" in 2013 was characterized by a significant increase in retail sales growth, reaching 72.16% in April 2013, which continued for several months [4][11] Historical Context - The report references the 2013 gold price drop, which led to a surge in gold purchases, significantly boosting the annual performance of companies like Luk Fook Holdings, which reported a revenue increase of 43.3% and a net profit increase of 50% for the fiscal year following the rush [12][4] Current Market Dynamics - The current gold price fluctuations share commonalities with the 2013 cycle, including a prolonged price increase before the drop, which may lead to a similar consumer buying frenzy [5] - However, the structural differences in the current market indicate that the driving forces behind gold purchases are more focused on long-term asset allocation and wealth preservation rather than short-term speculative gains [5][18] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests two main investment directions: 1. Companies like Caibai Co., which have dual business lines in investment gold bars and jewelry, and Luk Fook Holdings, which has a competitive pricing advantage and strong operations in Hong Kong and Macau [6][26] 2. Leading companies with strong product design and differentiation capabilities, such as Laopuhuangjin, Chaohongji, and Chow Tai Fook, which have shown significant growth in recent years [6][26] Consumer Behavior Insights - The report indicates that consumer demand for gold products is becoming less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations, with a focus on personal enjoyment and cultural recognition driving purchases [22][25] - Notably, companies with differentiated branding and product positioning have achieved high growth rates even in a high gold price environment, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards valuing design and craftsmanship [22][25]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月02日 黄金珠宝系列专题九 应对金价波动，以复盘对比 2013 年"抢金潮"为参考 优于大市 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 |  | 商贸零售·专业连锁Ⅱ |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张峻豪 | 021-60933168 | zhangjh@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980517070001 | | 证券分析师： | 柳旭 | 0755-81981311 | liuxu1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522120001 | | 证券分析师： | 孙乔容若 | 021-60375463 | sunqiaorongruo@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090004 | 事项： 近期，金价出现较大幅度波动，美东时间 COMEX 黄金开年至 1 月 29 日涨幅为 12.28%，但 1 月 30 日单日录 得跌幅 8.35%。市场较为关心金价波动如何影响黄金珠宝终端零售。本篇报告以 2013 年"抢金潮"为镜鉴， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (from January 26, 2026, to January 30, 2026), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was -1.20%. Among broad-based ETFs, the Shanghai 50 ETF had the highest return with a median change of 1.13%. Among sector ETFs, the large financial sector ETF had the highest return with a median change of 0.06%. Among thematic ETFs, the liquor ETF had the highest return with a median change of 2.39% [1][12][16]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 324.733 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 360.935 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF had the least net redemption of 9.35 billion yuan. Among sector ETFs, the cyclical ETF had the most net subscriptions of 386.15 billion yuan. Among thematic ETFs, the chip ETF had the most net subscriptions of 111.56 billion yuan [2][27][30]. - As of last Friday, the top three fund companies in terms of the total scale of listed, non-monetary ETFs were Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai-PineBridge. This week, four ETFs, namely the E Fund CSI All-Share Dividend Quality ETF, GF Hang Seng Biotech ETF, Bosera CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Thematic ETF, and E Fund CSI Battery Thematic ETF, will be issued [5][52][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - The median weekly return of equity ETFs was -1.20%. Among broad-based ETFs, the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, ChiNext, A500, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs had median changes of 1.13%, 0.09%, -0.10%, -0.62%, -2.54%, -2.57%, and -2.94% respectively. Commodity, bond, cross-border, and money market ETFs had median changes of 4.56%, 0.04%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively [1][12]. - Among sector ETFs, the large financial, technology, consumer, and cyclical sector ETFs had median changes of 0.06%, -2.28%, -2.57%, and -3.61% respectively. Among thematic ETFs, the liquor, dividend, and AI ETFs had median changes of 2.39%, 1.78%, and 0.80% respectively, performing relatively strongly, while the military, new energy vehicle, and robot ETFs had median changes of -8.82%, -7.04%, and -5.65% respectively, performing relatively weakly [16]. ETF Scale Changes and Net Subscriptions/Redeemptions - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross-border, and bond ETFs were 3.1726 trillion yuan, 1.0544 trillion yuan, and 725.5 billion yuan respectively. Commodity and money market ETFs had relatively smaller scales of 346.9 billion yuan and 153.7 billion yuan respectively. Among broad-based ETFs, the CSI 300 and A500 ETFs had larger scales of 610 billion yuan and 276.5 billion yuan respectively, while the Science and Technology Innovation Board, CSI 500, ChiNext, Shanghai 50, and CSI 1000 ETFs had relatively smaller scales [17]. - Among sector ETFs, the technology sector ETF had a scale of 551.3 billion yuan as of last Friday, followed by the cyclical sector ETF with a scale of 351.7 billion yuan. The consumer and large financial ETFs had relatively smaller scales. Among popular thematic ETFs, the chip, securities, and pharmaceutical ETFs had the highest scales as of last Friday [25]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 324.733 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 360.935 billion yuan. The money market ETF had a net subscription of 1.68 billion yuan, and the overall scale increased by 1.82 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF had the least net redemption of 9.35 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 67.28 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 ETF had the most net redemption of 244.613 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 243.808 billion yuan [27]. - Among sector ETFs, the cyclical ETF had the most net subscriptions of 386.15 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 315.50 billion yuan, while the large financial ETF had the least net subscriptions of 20.62 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 16.09 billion yuan. Among thematic ETFs, the chip ETF had the most net subscriptions of 111.56 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 69.73 billion yuan, while the AI ETF had the most net redemptions of 25.26 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 16.69 billion yuan [30]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and A500 ETFs were at the 83.33%, 87.54%, 99.50%, 99.42%, 66.75%, and 97.23% quantiles respectively, and the price-to-book ratios were at the 63.94%, 74.38%, 99.50%, 82.43%, 68.15%, and 97.23% quantiles respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the current price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios of the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF have been at the 90.26% and 81.02% quantiles respectively [33][35]. - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of the cyclical, large financial, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the 91.75%, 23.35%, 24.01%, and 97.61% quantiles respectively, and the price-to-book ratios were at the 89.27%, 45.13%, 31.60%, and 95.38% quantiles respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of the consumer ETF decreased significantly [39]. - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratio quantiles of the photovoltaic, military, and chip ETFs were relatively high, at 99.34%, 98.51%, and 97.61% respectively. The price-to-book ratio quantiles of the AI, robot, and dividend ETFs were relatively high, at 100.00%, 96.78%, and 94.22% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of the new energy vehicle ETF decreased significantly [42]. - Overall, among broad-based ETFs, the ChiNext and Shanghai 50 ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles. Among sector ETFs, the large financial and consumer ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles. Among thematic ETFs, the liquor and new energy vehicle ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles [44]. ETF Margin Trading and Short Selling - Overall, the margin trading balance and short selling volume of equity ETFs have both increased in the past year. As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs decreased from 56.364 billion yuan in the previous week to 55.044 billion yuan, and the short selling volume decreased from 2.237 billion shares in the previous week to 2.211 billion shares [45]. - Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchases and short selling volumes from last Monday to Thursday, the CSI 500 ETF and CSI 300 ETF had relatively high average daily margin trading purchases, and the CSI 1000 ETF and Shanghai 50 ETF had relatively high average daily short selling volumes [47][48][51]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs, with a relatively high management scale in multiple sub - sectors such as scale index ETFs, thematic, style, and strategy index ETFs, and cross - border ETFs. E Fund ranked second, with a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and cross - border ETFs. Huatai - PineBridge Fund ranked third, with a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and thematic, style, and strategy index ETFs [52]. - Last week, 10 new ETFs were established. This week, four ETFs, namely the E Fund CSI All - Share Dividend Quality ETF, GF Hang Seng Biotech ETF, Bosera CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Thematic ETF, and E Fund CSI Battery Thematic ETF, will be issued [54].

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月02日 黄金珠宝系列专题九 应对金价波动，以复盘对比 2013 年"抢金潮"为参考 优于大市 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 |  | 商贸零售·专业连锁Ⅱ |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张峻豪 | 021-60933168 | zhangjh@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980517070001 | | 证券分析师： | 柳旭 | 0755-81981311 | liuxu1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522120001 | | 证券分析师： | 孙乔容若 | 021-60375463 | sunqiaorongruo@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090004 | 国信零售观点：1、首先，本报告所述的"抢金潮"特指 2013 年 4 月，金价经历长达十余年牛市后出现快 速下跌的背景下，国内发生的相对集中、大规模购买黄金产品的现象。 2、彼时的影响和特点包括：1）金银珠宝社零增速在 2013 年 4 月显著 ...

Macro and Strategy - In 2025, China's economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of 5.0%, showing a "high first, low later" trend, with a significant inverse relationship between GDP growth and price performance [8][9] - The structural transformation in 2025 is positive, with a decline in the growth rate of the secondary industry and an increase in the tertiary industry, which helps alleviate excess supply pressure and supports domestic demand through service sector development [8][9] - The overall domestic demand remains at a historically low level, with insufficient internal demand being a major bottleneck in the economic cycle [8][9] Chemical Industry - The phosphate chemical industry is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with the wet-process phosphoric acid being the core preparation route, gradually replacing the energy-intensive thermal process [28][29] - Domestic phosphate rock supply is tightening due to strict environmental regulations, leading to a significant reduction in outdated production capacity [28][29] - The demand for phosphate rock is expected to remain robust, with the gross profit margin for leading enterprises around 80%, while the share of wet-process phosphoric acid consumption is projected to increase significantly by 2024 [29][30] Electronic Industry - The LCD panel industry has seen an increase in prices, with the panel index rising by 11.55% since December 2025, outperforming major stock indices [31][32] - The global revenue for large-sized LCD panels in December reached $6.423 billion, with a month-on-month growth of 15.52% [32] - Price increases for various sizes of LCD TV panels are expected to continue into February, driven by strong demand from television brands [33] Agricultural Industry - The price of live pigs is expected to continue rising, supported by the "anti-involution" policy, with the price recorded at 12.87 yuan/kg as of January 23, 2026 [36] - The supply of white chickens has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery, while the price of yellow chickens is expected to benefit from improved domestic demand [36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 280-420 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 428%-693%, with a median estimate of 350 million yuan, aligning with previous expectations [1][9] - The non-deductible net profit is projected to be 258-387 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of about 955%-1483%, with a median of 323 million yuan, reflecting a growth of approximately 1244% [1][10] - The rapid growth in 2025 is primarily driven by strong market demand in the recruitment examination training sector and the company's proactive strategies, including regional operations and the "Direct Path to Examination" product [2][10] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.371 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 19% [5] - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 350 million, 430 million, and 560 million yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) of 44, 35, and 27 [4][16] - The company is expected to maintain a high gross margin of 55% and an EBIT margin of 11.5% in 2025 [5][18] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on AI transformation and has established a strategic partnership with Fenbi, which is expected to enhance its AI capabilities and product offerings [2][15] - The "Direct Path to Examination" product is seen as a key reform initiative for 2025, aimed at consolidating the company's leading position in the industry [4][16] - The company has also confirmed the achievement of performance targets related to its employee stock ownership plan for 2025, indicating strong internal alignment with growth objectives [3][14]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月01日 锅圈（02517.HK） 利润率优化明显，门店扩张驱动高增长 优于大市 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 社会服务·酒店餐饮 | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张向伟 | | zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090001 | | 证券分析师： | 曾光 | 0755-82150809 | zengguang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980511040003 | | 证券分析师： | 张鲁 | 010-88005377 | zhanglu5@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521120002 | | 联系人： | 王新雨 | 021-60875135 | wangxinyu8@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 公司公告：锅圈发布盈利预告，2025 年全年预计实现收入约 77.50-78.50 亿元，同比增长约 19.8%-21.3%； 预计录得净利润约 4.43 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, REITs fluctuated upwards, outperforming major stock and bond indices. The CSI REIT Index rose 0.8% this week, with water conservancy, energy, and transportation REITs leading the gains, while data center REITs, which had significant increases earlier, adjusted significantly. The order of weekly returns of major indices was: CSI REIT > CSI 300 > CSI Aggregate Bond > CSI Convertible Bond. As of January 30, 2026, the dividend yield of equity REITs was 60 basis points lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 326 basis points. The submission and acceptance of the first 8 commercial real - estate REITs by the Shanghai Stock Exchange signify a key expansion of China's public REITs market from the infrastructure sector to the commercial real - estate sector [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Secondary Market Trends - **Index Performance**: As of January 30, 2026, the closing price of the CSI REIT (Closing) Index was 809.56 points, with a weekly return of 0.8% from January 24 - 30, 2026, outperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index (-2.6%), the CSI Aggregate Bond Index (0.0%), and the CSI 300 Index (0.1%). Year - to - date, the order of returns of major indices was: CSI Convertible Bond (+5.8%) > CSI REIT (+4.4%) > CSI 300 (+1.7%) > CSI Aggregate Bond (+0.4%). In the past year, the return of the CSI REIT Index was -2.8%, with a volatility of 7.5%. Its return was lower than that of the CSI Convertible Bond Index, the CSI 300 Index, and the CSI Aggregate Bond Index; its volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index, but higher than that of the CSI Aggregate Bond Index [1][2][6] - **Market Size and Turnover**: The total market capitalization of REITs on January 30 was 228.7 billion yuan, an increase of 700 million yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.60%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from the previous week [2][8] - **Sector - Specific Performance**: As of January 23, 2026, the average weekly returns of equity REITs and concession - type REITs were 0.3% and 0.8% respectively. Among different project - type REITs, water conservancy, energy, and transportation REITs led the gains. The top three REITs in terms of weekly returns were Bosera Tianjin Binhai New Area Industrial Park REIT (+4.94%), ICBC Mongolia Energy Clean Energy REIT (+4.64%), and China Asset Management CNOOC Commercial REIT (+4.52%) [1][3][15] - **Trading Activity and Fund Flow**: Among different project - type REITs, new infrastructure REITs had the highest average daily turnover rate in the period, at 1.065%. Park infrastructure REITs had the highest proportion of trading volume this week, accounting for 20.251% of the total REIT trading volume. The top three REITs in terms of net inflow of main funds this week were China Asset Management China Resources Commercial REIT (38.6 million yuan), CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT (15.9 million yuan), and CICC InCity Mall REIT (14.46 million yuan) [3][22][23] Primary Market Issuance - From January 1 to January 30, 2026, there were 3 REIT products in the in - inquiry stage, 3 in the feedback stage, 8 in the submitted stage on the exchange, and 8 commercial real - estate REITs were officially submitted [25] Valuation Tracking - **Valuation Metrics**: REITs have both bond - like and stock - like characteristics. As of January 30, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public REITs was 6.11%. From the stock - like perspective, relative net value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO were used to evaluate REITs' valuations. The relative net value premium rate reflects the relationship between the market value and fair value of the fund, similar to the PB indicator of stocks. IRR is the internal rate of return calculated using the discounted cash - flow method, and P/FFO is the current price divided by the operating cash flow [27] - **Sector - Specific Valuation**: Different project - type REITs had different valuation levels. For example, the relative net value premium rate of affordable rental housing REITs was 42.40%, with a P/FFO of 38.43, an IRR of 3.50%, and an annualized dividend rate of 2.76% [28] - **Comparison of Equity and Concession - type REITs**: As of January 30, 2026, the dividend yield of equity REITs was 60 basis points lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 316 basis points [1][30] Industry News - The first 8 commercial real - estate REITs' applications were accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange. On January 29, 2026, Hua'an Jinjiang Closed - end Commercial Real - Estate REIT, Huitianfu Shanghai Real - Estate Closed - end Commercial Real - Estate REIT, and CICC Vipshop Closed - end Commercial Real - Estate REIT were submitted and accepted. On January 30, another 5 commercial real - estate REITs were submitted, marking a key expansion of China's public REITs market from the infrastructure sector to the commercial real - estate sector [1][4][32]