【重点推荐】 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月24日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-02-13 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4082.07 | 14100.18 | 4660.40 | 15387.66 | 4134.99 | 1470.33 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -1.25 | -1.27 | -1.25 | -0.94 | -1.19 | -0.71 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 8468.08 | 11358.71 | 4528.78 | 3880.66 | 5421.16 | 615.92 | 宏观与策略 策略专题:策略专题研究-决胜 26 年牛市的三大行业机遇 行业与公司 公用环保行业专题:可控核聚变系列研究（一）-聚变启航，未来已来 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观快评:1 月金融数据解读-居民信贷"破冰" 宏观快评:美国 1 月 CPI 点评-通胀回落，降息时点仍靠后 固定收益投 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by over 10% [4][32]. Core Insights - The consumer services sector saw an increase of 0.68% during the reporting period, outperforming the market by 1.65 percentage points [1][13]. - Key stocks that performed well include Yum China (+12.34%), Melco International Development (+11.35%), and H World Group (+8.99%) [1][14]. - The report highlights the progress in hotel REITs, with Jin Jiang Hotels and H World Group's commercial real estate REITs being accepted by exchanges, which is expected to revitalize hotel assets [2][18]. - The new duty-free shops at Beijing Capital International Airport have opened, marking a significant upgrade in the commercial offerings at the airport [2][19]. - The travel and tourism market is experiencing heightened interest ahead of the longest Spring Festival holiday, with cultural destinations and visa-free countries becoming popular search topics [2][20]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The consumer services sector outperformed the market, with a 0.68% increase compared to a 0.98% decline in the CSI 300 index during the same period [1][13]. Industry and Company Dynamics - Jin Jiang Hotels and H World Group's REITs have been accepted for trading, which is expected to enhance hotel asset liquidity [2][18]. - The new duty-free shops at Beijing Capital International Airport have opened, enhancing the shopping experience for travelers [2][19]. - The travel market is seeing increased interest, with a 253% rise in searches for Spring Festival travel destinations [2][20]. Stock Holdings - Notable increases in holdings for key stocks include Haidilao (+1.80% to 27.66%) and China Oriental Education (+1.17% to 33.04%) during the reporting period [3][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Outperform" rating and recommends stocks such as China Duty Free Group, Haidilao, H World Group, and China Oriental Education for investment [4][32].

Investment Rating - The report rates the controlled nuclear fusion industry as "Outperform the Market" [1][8] Core Insights - Controlled nuclear fusion is considered the "ultimate energy solution" due to its potential for near-infinite energy, high energy density, and minimal environmental impact [1][13] - The industry is experiencing a second acceleration phase driven by advancements in technology, increased capital expenditure, and supportive policies [3][38] - The market space for nuclear fusion is projected to reach 800-1000 billion yuan, with significant growth expected as the technology matures [6][8] Summary by Sections Introduction to Controlled Nuclear Fusion - Nuclear fusion involves the combination of two light atomic nuclei to form a heavier nucleus, releasing significant energy [1][15] - It is viewed as a solution to energy challenges, offering advantages over traditional energy sources [1][17] Advantages of Nuclear Fusion - Fusion fuel sources are abundant, and the energy density is significantly higher than that of fission [2][21] - It has inherent safety features, reducing the risk of catastrophic failures [2][21] Development of Nuclear Fusion in China - China is pursuing multiple technological pathways, primarily focusing on the Tokamak route for commercial power generation [3][38] - The country aims to demonstrate controlled nuclear fusion power generation by around 2030 and achieve commercial viability by 2050 [3][38] Industry Catalysts - The industry is currently in a phase of rapid development, with increased investment and participation from both state-owned and private enterprises [3][38] - The integration of AI and advancements in high-temperature superconductors are expected to further accelerate progress in the nuclear fusion sector [3][38] Market Potential - The nuclear fusion market is expected to generate substantial demand for engineering and equipment, with annual investments projected at around 20 billion yuan during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [6][8] - Long-term projections suggest that fusion power plants could replace a significant portion of current electricity generation, contributing to carbon neutrality goals by 2060 [6][8] Industry Chain Overview - The nuclear fusion industry chain includes key components such as superconducting materials, vacuum systems, and various auxiliary systems [4][6] - Major companies involved in the sector include 应流股份, 许继电气, and 中国核电, all rated as "Outperform the Market" [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - 1 month inflation continued to improve, with CPI dropping to 0.2% and PPI rising to -1.4%. M2 increased to a nearly two - year high. A - shares first rose then fell, but the bond market continued to perform well, and ultra - long bonds slightly increased [1][10][36]. - The probability of a recent bond market correction is higher. The economic stabilization since Q4 2024 was mainly due to central government leverage. In Q4 2025, there was no additional treasury bond issuance, and the short - term government support for the economy weakened. The GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 reached the lowest level in the post - pandemic era, and the economy is still under pressure. Also, during the Spring Festival, there is a data vacuum from the statistics bureau, the current interest rate is at a low level, and the A - share market has a strong performance in spring, so the stock - bond seesaw effect is expected to strengthen [2][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Ultra - long Bond Review - 1 month inflation continued to improve. CPI dropped to 0.2% and PPI rose to -1.4%. M2 increased to a nearly two - year high. A - shares first rose then fell, but the bond market continued to perform well, and ultra - long bonds slightly increased [1][10][36]. - In the week before the Spring Festival, the trading activity of ultra - long bonds slightly increased and was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][10][3]. 2. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook 30 - year Treasury Bonds - As of February 13, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 45BP, at a historically low level. The economic downward pressure in December eased, with the estimated GDP growth rate at about 4.5%, up 0.4% from November. The deflation risk continued to ease. The probability of a recent bond market correction is higher. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2][11]. 20 - year China Development Bank Bonds - As of February 13, the spread between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 14BP, at a historically low position. The economic downward pressure in December eased, with the estimated GDP growth rate at about 4.5%, up 0.4% from November. The deflation risk continued to ease. The probability of a recent bond market correction is higher. The variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds is expected to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [3][12]. 3. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.8 trillion. As of January 31, the ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years totaled 248,306 billion, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties [13]. - By variety, treasury bonds account for 27.9%, local government bonds 66.8%, policy - based financial bonds 1.8%, government agency bonds 1.6%, commercial bank sub - debt 0.4%, corporate bonds 0.3%, enterprise bonds 0.1%, medium - term notes 1.0%, private bonds 0.0%, and directional instruments 0.0% [13]. - By remaining term, 14 - 18 years (inclusive) account for 24.6%, 18 - 25 years (inclusive) 29.0%, 25 - 35 years (inclusive) 40.7%, and over 35 years 5.7% [13]. 4. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - In the week before the Spring Festival (February 9 - 13, 2026), the issuance of ultra - long bonds was low, with a total of 1,639 billion yuan. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance of ultra - long bonds decreased significantly [18]. - By variety, treasury bonds were 320 billion, local government bonds 1,634 billion, policy - based bank bonds 0 billion, government - supported agency bonds 0 billion, medium - term notes 5 billion, corporate bonds 0 billion, directional instruments 0 billion, enterprise bonds 0 billion, and bank sub - debt 0 billion [18]. - By term, 15 - year bonds were 439 billion, 20 - year bonds 587 billion, 30 - year bonds 613 billion, and 50 - year bonds 0 billion [18]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 3,805 billion. There are 0 billion in ultra - long treasury bonds, 3,805 billion in ultra - long local government bonds, 0 billion in ultra - long corporate bonds, and 0 billion in ultra - long medium - term notes [23]. 5. Secondary Market Trading Volume - In the week before the Spring Festival, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active. The trading volume of ultra - long bonds was 10,925 billion, accounting for 13% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, the trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds was 6,699 billion, accounting for 32.7% of the total treasury bond trading volume; ultra - long local bonds 3,980 billion, accounting for 63.0% of the total local bond trading volume; ultra - long policy - based financial bonds 58 billion, accounting for 0.2% of the total policy - based financial bond trading volume; ultra - long government agency bonds 97 billion, accounting for 57.7% of the total government agency bond trading volume [25][27]. - The trading activity of ultra - long bonds slightly increased compared with the previous week. The trading volume of ultra - long bonds increased by 281 billion, and the proportion increased by 0.8%. Among them, the trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds decreased by 1,295 billion, and the proportion decreased by 6.5%; the trading volume of ultra - long local bonds increased by 1,527 billion, and the proportion increased by 9.7%; the trading volume of ultra - long policy - based financial bonds increased by 21 billion, and the proportion increased by 0.1%; the trading volume of ultra - long government agency bonds increased by 60 billion, and the proportion increased by 30.1% [27]. Yield - 1 month inflation continued to improve. CPI dropped to 0.2% and PPI rose to -1.4%. M2 increased to a nearly two - year high. A - shares first rose then fell, but the bond market continued to perform well, and ultra - long bonds slightly increased. For treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by -1BP, -1BP, -1BP, and 0BP to 2.11%, 2.23%, 2.24%, and 2.43% respectively. For China Development Bank bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by -1BP, -1BP, -1BP, and 0BP to 2.25%, 2.37%, 2.38%, and 2.58% respectively. For local bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by 0BP, 0BP, and -1BP to 2.30%, 2.45%, and 2.46% respectively. For railway bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by -2BP, -3BP, and -3BP to 2.29%, 2.42%, and 2.46% respectively [36]. - For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 25 ultra - long special treasury bond 02 changed by -0.4BP to 2.22%, and the yield of the 20 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 21 CDB 20 changed by -1.5BP to 2.22% [37]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 45BP, up 1BP from the previous week, at the 33% quantile since 2010 [45]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds was 14BP, and the spread between 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds was 20BP, changing by 0BP and -1BP respectively from the previous week, at the 12% and 14% quantiles since 2010 [49]. 6. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2603 closed at 112.84 yuan, an increase of 0.24%. The total trading volume of 30 - year treasury bond futures was 359,300 lots (-144,347 lots), and the open interest was 71,600 lots (-45,948 lots). The trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared with the previous week [52].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium battery industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The lithium salt price has decreased, while the prices of battery cells have increased slightly. As of February 13, the price of lithium carbonate is 144,000 CNY per ton, down by 17,000 CNY from two weeks ago. The prices of ternary cathodes, lithium iron phosphate cathodes, electrolytes, and lithium hexafluorophosphate have also decreased, while the prices of anodes and separators remain stable. The prices for square ternary power cells, lithium iron phosphate power cells, and energy storage cells have increased slightly [2][3] - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its commercialization, with the first national standard for automotive solid-state batteries expected to be reviewed and approved in April and officially released in July. Companies like Gotion High-Tech and BASF are collaborating to develop solid-state battery technology [3][10][11] - The domestic new energy vehicle sales in January 2026 reached 945,000 units, a slight year-on-year increase, while the penetration rate is 40.3%, up by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3][12] Industry Dynamics - The report highlights several leading companies in the lithium battery sector that are undervalued amid improving demand, including CATL, EVE Energy, and others. It also points to companies leading in low-altitude economy and robotics, solid-state and sodium battery materials, and charging pile industries [3] - The U.S. Treasury Department has updated details regarding the OBBBA Act, tightening certification for specific foreign entities and detailing the calculation of material assistance ratios [3][13][14] - The report notes significant investments in battery production projects, including an 80GWh project by Chuangneng in Wuhan and a 33 billion CNY investment by Penghui Energy for new battery production lines [10][18] Price Trends - The report provides a detailed overview of lithium battery material prices as of February 13, 2026, indicating a decrease in lithium carbonate prices by 10.4% compared to two weeks prior, while other materials like nickel sulfate and cobalt sulfate have shown varying price changes [19] - The price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased by 1.5% to 0.336 CNY/Wh, while the price of square ternary power cells remains stable at 0.582 CNY/Wh [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock market [4] Core Viewpoints - The energy and materials sectors have seen valuation increases, while earnings forecasts remain stable [1] - The overall market has experienced a decline, with significant differentiation in sector performance, particularly in technology [1][2] - Analysts have adjusted earnings expectations upwards for most sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the near term [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.6%, while the Hang Seng Composite Index fell by 0.7% [1] - Mid-cap stocks outperformed small-cap and large-cap stocks, with mid-cap stocks up by 0.6% and large-cap stocks down by 1.0% [1] - Among 30 sectors, 18 saw gains, with notable increases in oil and petrochemicals (+5.4%) and non-ferrous metals (+2.8%) [1] Valuation Levels - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.9% to 11.4x, while the Hang Seng Composite Index valuation fell by 0.7% to 11.5x [2] - Valuations increased in 14 sectors, with oil and petrochemicals up by 5.3% and steel by 2.4% [2] - The most significant declines in valuation were seen in retail (-4.3%) and computers (-3.6%) [2] Earnings Expectations - The earnings per share (EPS) for the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.3% compared to the previous week [3] - The most significant upward revisions in EPS expectations were for the biotechnology sector (+0.8%) and the ROE aggressive strategy (+1.7%) [3] - A total of 27 sectors saw EPS revisions upwards, with notable increases in basic chemicals (+2.1%) and computers (+1.5%) [3]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月22日 2026年02月23日 基金周报 中证指数 126 条指数入选业绩比较基准库，多只"固收+"基金增聘 权益基金经理 核心观点 金融工程周报 上周市场回顾。上周 A 股市场主要宽基指数全线上涨，科创 50、中证 1000、中证 500 指数收益靠前，收益分别为 3.37%、1.90%、1.88%， 沪深 300、上证综指、创业板指指数收益靠后，收益分别为 0.36%、 0.41%、1.22%。 从成交额来看，上周主要宽基指数成交额均有所下降。行业方面，上周 计算机、电子、传媒收益靠前，收益分别为 4.00%、3.70%、3.66%， 商贸零售、食品饮料、纺织服装收益靠后，收益分别为-3.07%、-2.52%、 -2.24%。 截至上周五，央行逆回购净投放资金 12089 亿元，逆回购到期 4055 亿 元，净公开市场投放 16144 亿元。不同期限的国债利率均有所下行，利 差缩窄 1.35BP。 上周共上报 91 只基金，较上上周申报数量有所减少。申报的产品包括 8 只 FOF，23 只 ETF，工银瑞信中证红利低波动 100ETF、工银瑞信中 证港股通非银行金融主题 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium battery industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The lithium salt price has decreased, while cell prices have increased. As of February 13, the price of lithium carbonate is 144,000 yuan/ton, down 17,000 yuan/ton from two weeks ago. The prices of ternary cathodes, lithium iron phosphate cathodes, electrolytes, and lithium hexafluorophosphate have also decreased, while the prices of anodes and separators remain stable. The prices for square ternary power cells, lithium iron phosphate power cells, and energy storage cells have increased slightly [2][3] - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating, with the first national standard for automotive solid-state batteries expected to be reviewed and approved in April and officially released in July. Companies like Gotion High-Tech and BASF are collaborating to develop solid-state battery technology [3][10] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the lithium battery industry with low valuations amid improving demand, including CATL, EVE Energy, and others [3] Industry Dynamics - The domestic new energy vehicle sales in January 2026 reached 945,000 units, a slight year-on-year increase but a 45% decrease month-on-month. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is 40.3%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] - In January 2026, new energy vehicle sales in nine European countries reached 205,200 units, a 20% year-on-year increase but a 37% month-on-month decrease. The penetration rate in Europe is 30.6%, up 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The U.S. saw new energy vehicle sales of 77,600 units in January 2026, a 31% year-on-year decrease and a 30% month-on-month decrease, with a penetration rate of 7.0% [3] Company Developments - CATL announced an employee stock ownership plan on February 9, 2026, with a total investment of no more than 743 million yuan, involving approximately 404,680 shares [3][15] - EVE Energy released its seventh stock option and restricted stock incentive plan on February 13, 2026, with a total of 150 million shares to be granted [3][18] - The U.S. Treasury Department updated details on the OBBBA Act on February 12, 2026, tightening certification for specific foreign entities and detailing the calculation of material assistance ratios [3][13][14] Market Performance - Over the past two weeks, the lithium battery sector has increased by 4.1%, while the battery chemicals sector has risen by 4.7%. The lithium-specific equipment sector has decreased by 1.8% [7] - Key stock price changes from February 8 to February 13 include a 1.0% decrease for CATL and a 12.3% increase for Enjie [7]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月22日 2026年02月23日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（195） 优于大市 奶牛存栏节后有望维持去化，石化链涨价或带动橡胶价格 原奶：奶牛去化有望延续，原奶价格 2026 年或迎拐点。2026 年 2 月 5 日， 国内主产区原奶均价为 3.04 元/kg，周度环比持平，同比-2.56%。 周度农产品跟踪：年内肉奶周期有望共振反转，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。2026 年 2 月 14 日生猪价格 11.61 元/公斤，周环比-2.60%；7kg 仔猪价格约 357.14 元/头，周环比-0.13%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。2026 年 2 月 14 日，鸡苗价格 2.33 元/羽，周环比+18.27%；毛鸡价格 7.32 元/公斤，周环比+0.27%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。2026 年 2 月 10 日浙江快大 三黄鸡/青脚麻鸡/雪山草鸡斤价分别为 4.7/4.4/5.6 元，周环比分别 +2.17%/-6.38%/+0.00%。 豆粕：估值处于历史低位，关注潜在天气或贸易端催化。2026 年 2 月 ...

Group 1: Northbound and Southbound Capital Flows - Northbound capital estimated net inflow of 3 billion CNY in the recent week, compared to a net outflow of 8.2 billion CNY in the previous week[1] - Southbound capital accelerated inflow into Hong Kong stocks, with a total of 26.7 billion HKD flowing into the market in the recent week[2] - Southbound capital outflow included 10.4 billion HKD from stable foreign capital and 25.1 billion HKD from flexible foreign capital[2] Group 2: Market Trends and Sector Performance - In the recent week, the top active stocks in the Northbound trading included Ningde Times with a total transaction amount of 20.4 billion CNY, accounting for 18% of the total trading amount for that stock[1] - In the Hong Kong market, significant foreign capital inflows were observed in sectors such as electrical equipment, food and beverage, and textiles[2] - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japan saw a net inflow of 248.7 billion JPY from overseas investors, while India experienced an outflow of 3.98 billion USD in January[2][3] Group 3: Global Market Insights - In December, the US equity market saw a net inflow of 32.2 billion USD from global mutual funds, up from 9.2 billion USD in the previous month[3] - European equity markets also experienced inflows, with net inflows of 1.74 billion USD, 0.97 billion USD, and 2.16 billion USD into the UK, Germany, and France respectively[3] - Cumulative net inflows into the US market since 2020 reached 723.7 billion USD[3]