Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Group [3][21][5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 299.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15%. The retail segment contributed 250.6 billion yuan, growing 11% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in daily necessities and marketing revenue [1][9] - The logistics revenue reached 52.1 billion yuan, also up 15% year-on-year, while new business revenue surged by 214%, primarily due to the rapid growth of JD's food delivery service [1][9] - Non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was 5.8 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 1.9%, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous year [2][10] - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by the daily necessities and platform model post-subsidy phase, with continuous optimization of supply chain efficiency and improving gross margins [3][21] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1,334.9 billion, 1,433.4 billion, and 1,558.7 billion yuan, with growth rates of +15.2%, +7.4%, and +8.7% respectively [4][21] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are 30 billion, 41.5 billion, and 57.4 billion yuan, with growth rates of -37.2%, +38.1%, and +38.3% respectively [4][21] - The company’s PE ratio for 2026 is approximately 9x, indicating a favorable valuation [3][21]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to select stocks from the analyst-recommended stock pool based on both fundamental and technical aspects, focusing on stocks with fundamental support and technical resonance[13][15]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Construct an analyst-recommended stock pool based on events such as analyst earnings forecast upgrades, initial analyst coverage, and analyst report titles exceeding expectations[15]. - **Step 2**: Perform dual-layer selection on the stocks in the analyst-recommended stock pool from both fundamental and technical dimensions[15]. - **Step 3**: Select stocks that exhibit both fundamental support and technical resonance to construct the Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio[15]. - **Backtesting Period**: 2010-01-01 to 2025-06-30, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index after considering transaction costs in a fully invested state[15]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively combines fundamental and technical analysis to select outperforming stocks, demonstrating significant excess returns over the benchmark index[15]. Model Backtesting Results - **Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio**: - **Absolute Return**: 69.65% (2025 YTD)[17] - **Excess Return Relative to Hang Seng Index**: 37.18% (2025 YTD)[17] - **Annualized Return**: 19.11%[15] - **Excess Return Relative to Hang Seng Index**: 18.48%[15] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.22[19] - **Tracking Error**: 14.55%[19] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.73%[19] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 0.78[19] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor measures the distance of the latest closing price from the highest closing price in the past 250 trading days, indicating the stock's momentum and trend-following potential[22]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Formula**: $$ \text{250-Day New High Distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $$ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ is the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price in the past 250 trading days[22]. - **Interpretation**: If the latest closing price sets a new high, the 250-Day New High Distance is 0; if the latest closing price falls from the new high, the distance is positive, indicating the extent of the decline[22]. - **Screening Criteria**: Stocks that have set a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days are filtered based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path stability, and new high continuity[22][23]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures momentum and trend-following characteristics, which are significant in the Hong Kong stock market[20]. Factor Backtesting Results - **250-Day New High Distance Factor**: - **Absolute Return**: 69.65% (2025 YTD)[17] - **Excess Return Relative to Hang Seng Index**: 37.18% (2025 YTD)[17] - **Annualized Return**: 19.11%[15] - **Excess Return Relative to Hang Seng Index**: 18.48%[15] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.22[19] - **Tracking Error**: 14.55%[19] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.73%[19] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 0.78[19]

- The market experienced a broad decline today, with the CSI 2000 index performing relatively well among scale indices, and the SSE Composite Index performing better among sector indices[2][6] - The banking, real estate, textile and apparel, pharmaceutical, and comprehensive industries performed relatively well, while the electronics, communications, computer, media, and new energy industries performed poorly[2][7] - Market sentiment was relatively high today, with 90 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 9 stocks hitting the daily limit down at the close[2][12] - The financing balance as of November 13, 2025, was 24,882 billion yuan, and the securities lending balance was 184 billion yuan, with the total margin balance accounting for 2.5% of the market's circulating market value[2][17][20] - The ETF with the highest premium on November 13, 2025, was the Internet ETF Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen, with a premium of 0.59%, while the ETF with the highest discount was the Zhejiang Merchants Zhijiang Phoenix ETF, with a discount of 0.73%[3][21] - The median annualized discount rates for the main contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures over the past year were 0.39%, 3.23%, 10.86%, and 13.33%, respectively[3][26] - The stock with the most institutional research over the past week was Boying Special Welding, which was researched by 79 institutions[4][28] - The top ten stocks with net inflows from institutional seats on the Dragon and Tiger List on November 14, 2025, included Time-Space Technology, Hailu Heavy Industry, Zhongyi Technology, Lianhua Technology, Kangzhi Pharmaceutical, Kangpeng Technology, Worth Buying, Chengda Pharmaceutical, Zhaoyi Innovation, and Minsheng Health[4][33]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月14日 热点追踪周报 由创新高个股看市场投资热点（第 219 期） 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2025 年 11 月 14 日，上证指数、深 证成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 0.97%、3.71%、2.52%、4.15%、1.90%、 0.66%、6.40%、11.56%。中信一级行业指数中纺织服装、轻工制造、综 合、交通运输、钢铁行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，食品饮料、综合金 融、国防军工、汽车、计算机行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。概念指数 中，HJT 电池、家居用品、林木、万得微盘股日频等权、储能、石油天 然气、锂矿等概念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2025 年 11 月 14 日，共 1080 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的 是基础化工、机械、电力设备及新能源行业，创新高个股数量占比最高的是 煤炭、钢铁、有色金属行业。按照板块分布来看，本周周期、制造板块创新 高股票数量最多 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the organic silicon industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The domestic demand for organic silicon continues to grow significantly, while overseas exports have slowed down due to a high base from the previous year. In the first three quarters of 2025, the domestic consumption of organic silicon intermediates reached 1.5128 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.66% [3][6] - The peak of capacity expansion has passed, leading to an improved supply structure. The production capacity of organic silicon intermediates in China increased from 1.675 million tons per year in 2020 to 3.44 million tons per year in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.71% [3][8] - Product prices are at historically low levels and are expected to rise due to coordinated production cuts. As of November 13, 2025, the average price of DMC was 12,500 yuan per ton, up 1,000 yuan from the previous working day [4][13] Summary by Sections Demand Side - Domestic demand for organic silicon intermediates has been consistently high, with a projected apparent consumption of 1.8164 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.9%. The export volume for organic silicon intermediates in 2024 is expected to recover to 545,700 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34.21% [3][6] Supply Side - The supply side is showing signs of improvement as the peak of capacity expansion has passed. The industry capacity concentration is high, with major players holding significant market shares. As of January 2025, the industry operating rate was 80.69%, which later stabilized around 70% [3][8][9] Price and Profit - The organic silicon industry has faced a significant deterioration in supply-demand dynamics, leading to negative profits. However, with the planned 30% production cut by manufacturers, there is potential for price recovery and positive profit margins in the future [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Xingfa Group, Dongyue Group, and Luxi Chemical, highlighting their competitive advantages and ongoing projects that are expected to enhance their market positions [15][18]

Economic Performance - In October, China's GDP growth rate slowed to 4.2% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points from September, significantly below the annual growth target[1] - Industrial added value dropped to 4.9% year-on-year, while the service production index fell to 4.6%, marking a new low for the year[1] - Fixed asset investment saw a sharp decline of 11.0% year-on-year, with real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments continuing to decrease[1] Consumer Market Insights - Total retail sales of consumer goods slightly decreased to 2.9% year-on-year, but excluding automobiles, the growth rate rebounded to 4.0%[1] - Restaurant consumption growth significantly increased to 3.8%, indicating a recovery in the service sector[1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, reflecting a seasonal decline of 0.1 percentage points[1] Future Outlook - Positive factors are accumulating, with signs of structural recovery in consumption and a steady decline in the unemployment rate, suggesting sustained consumer demand[2] - Fiscal space remains ample, with fiscal deposits exceeding the average of the past three years by approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, providing strong support for counter-cyclical adjustments[2] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools has been completed, focusing on new economic sectors such as digital economy and artificial intelligence[2] Risks and Challenges - There are risks associated with potential weakening of policy stimulus and uncertainties in overseas economic policies[2]

- The report introduces a quantitative model named "250-day new high distance" to monitor market trends and identify investment hotspots. The model is based on momentum and trend-following strategies, which have been proven effective in previous studies. It calculates the distance between the latest closing price and the highest closing price in the past 250 trading days using the formula: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max}(\text{Close}, 250)} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max}(\text{Close}, 250)$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of pullback [11][19][27] - The model is evaluated positively for its ability to track market trends and identify leading stocks that are consistently reaching new highs. It is inspired by methodologies from notable researchers and practitioners such as George (2004), William O'Neil, and Mark Minervini, who emphasize the importance of monitoring stocks near their 52-week highs [11][18][19] - The report also introduces a screening method for "stable new high stocks," focusing on stocks with smooth price paths and consistent momentum. The screening criteria include analyst attention (at least five buy or overweight ratings in the past three months), relative price strength (top 20% in 250-day returns), price path smoothness (measured by price displacement ratio), and trend continuation (average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and past five days). Stocks meeting these criteria are ranked, and the top 50% are selected [25][27][28] - The backtesting results show that 1080 stocks reached 250-day new highs in the past 20 trading days. Among them, the highest numbers are in the basic chemicals, machinery, and electric power equipment & new energy sectors. The highest proportions are in coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals sectors. Additionally, 39 stocks were identified as "stable new high stocks," with the majority belonging to cyclical and manufacturing sectors [19][20][28] - Key metrics for indices include the 250-day new high distance for major indices as of November 14, 2025: Shanghai Composite Index (0.97%), Shenzhen Component Index (3.71%), CSI 300 (2.52%), CSI 500 (4.15%), CSI 1000 (1.90%), CSI 2000 (0.66%), ChiNext Index (6.40%), and STAR 50 Index (11.56%) [12][13][32] - Key metrics for industries include the 250-day new high distance for sectors such as textiles & apparel (0.00%), light manufacturing (0.08%), comprehensive (0.06%), transportation (0.14%), and steel (0.36%) [13][15][32] - Key metrics for concepts include the 250-day new high distance for HJT batteries, home furnishings, forestry, equal-weight micro-cap stocks, energy storage, oil & gas, and lithium mining concepts, which are relatively close to their 250-day highs [15][17][32]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a reasonable valuation range of 28.85 to 30.40 CNY, indicating a potential premium of 22.9% to 29.5% over the current stock price of 23.48 CNY [6][3]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of helium mass spectrometers, focusing on industrial detection and online monitoring instruments, while also expanding into laboratory analysis and medical instruments to create a second growth curve [1][2]. - The industrial detection and online monitoring segments are expected to solidify the company's revenue base, with projected revenues of 4.55 billion CNY and 1.98 billion CNY respectively for 2024 [1]. - The laboratory analysis and medical instruments are emerging as new growth engines, with expected revenues of 0.47 billion CNY for laboratory instruments and ongoing development in medical devices [2]. - The company is poised for growth due to recovering product demand, expansion into downstream applications, and strong government support for domestic alternatives in laboratory and medical instruments [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2003, the company has evolved from a regional technology firm to a national-level specialized "little giant" and is listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [13]. - The company operates across four main business segments: industrial detection instruments, online monitoring instruments, laboratory analysis instruments, and medical instruments, forming a synergistic growth model [1]. Financial Performance - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.99% from 2020 to 2024, despite facing profit pressures due to high R&D investments [23]. - In 2025, the company is expected to see a substantial improvement in performance, with projected revenues of 8.99 billion CNY and net profits of 660 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 358.5% [5][3]. Business Segments - The industrial detection segment is the primary revenue contributor, projected to generate 4.55 billion CNY in 2024, while online monitoring instruments are expected to account for 1.98 billion CNY [1][45]. - The laboratory analysis instruments and medical devices are still in the early stages of revenue contribution, with laboratory instruments expected to generate 0.47 billion CNY in 2024 [2][45]. Growth Drivers - The demand for industrial detection instruments is anticipated to benefit from the expansion of major battery manufacturers and government policies aimed at environmental monitoring [3]. - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan to align employee interests with company performance, which is expected to further drive growth [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the liquor industry, specifically for companies like Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu [4]. Core Insights - The liquor industry serves as an economic lubricant, with its revenue growth closely aligned with GDP growth and the sales expenses of A-share listed companies [2]. - Long-term price trends for Moutai are expected to fluctuate around one-third of urban residents' average disposable income, indicating a strong correlation between consumer purchasing power and liquor prices [2]. - Short-term demand for liquor reflects economic fluctuations and expectations, with product prices closely related to macroeconomic indicators such as PPI and excavator sales [3]. Summary by Sections Economic Indicators and Liquor Demand - The liquor industry is influenced by macroeconomic indicators, with PPI, excavator sales, and industrial profits reflecting business consumption demand, while CPI and disposable income indicate consumer purchasing needs [1]. - The correlation between liquor demand and economic activity suggests that tracking forward-looking indicators can provide insights into price and performance expectations [1]. Long-term and Short-term Price Dynamics - Moutai's price is expected to rise steadily within a reasonable range of residents' income levels, with historical data showing a strong relationship between Moutai prices and disposable income [2]. - In the short term, liquor prices are expected to respond to economic conditions, with a notable correlation between Moutai's wholesale price and PPI trends [3]. Investment Recommendations - As of mid-November, the wholesale price of Moutai is around 1,660 RMB, down 25% year-on-year, indicating a potential bottoming signal for the sector [3]. - Recommended stocks for investment include stable performers like Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Guizhou Moutai, with a focus on companies that have long-term growth potential [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][25]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $6 billion in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 38%, driven by strong performance in e-commerce, digital finance, and gaming, with respective growth rates of 35%, 61%, and 31% [1][9]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $874 million, corresponding to a profit margin of 15%, while the net profit reached $380 million, with a net profit margin of 6% [1][9]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to $22.8 billion, $28.6 billion, and $32.9 billion, reflecting increases of 5%, 8%, and 8% respectively [3][21]. E-commerce Business - E-commerce revenue for Q3 2025 was $4.3 billion, up 35% year-over-year, attributed to rapid GMV growth of 28% and an increase in monetization rate from 11.0% to 11.7% [2][12]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the e-commerce segment was $186 million, with a profit margin of 4.3%, impacted by increased logistics investments [2][12]. Digital Finance - The digital finance segment achieved revenue of $990 million in Q3 2025, a 61% increase year-over-year, primarily driven by credit business growth [15]. - The adjusted EBITDA for this segment was $258 million, with a profit margin of 26%, and the total receivables reached $7.9 billion, up 70% year-over-year [15]. Digital Entertainment - Digital entertainment revenue was $650 million in Q3 2025, reflecting a 31% year-over-year increase, with total game revenue reaching $840 million, a 51% increase [16]. - The company expects over 30% growth in game revenue for 2025, supported by successful titles and a growing user base [19]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of $16.82 billion for 2024, $22.76 billion for 2025, and $28.57 billion for 2026, with respective growth rates of 28.8%, 35.3%, and 25.5% [5][23]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is $1.737 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 288% compared to 2024 [5][23].