宏 观 研 究 2024 年 9 月 9 日 宏观经济 事件点评 美国就业市场进入中后期 ——8 月美国非农数据点评 分析师 康明怡 电话：021-25102911 邮箱：kangmy@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480519090001 事件： 美国 8 月季调后非农就业增 14.2 万，预期 16 万，前值从 11.4 万下修至 8.9 万；失业率 4.2%，预期 4.2%，前值 4.3%。 主要观点： 1、 就业紧绷程度跌落疫情前高位平台，短期非农总量无忧，就业负面因素开始值得关注。 2、 非农贡献最大的建筑和餐饮业岗位空缺数均有下降，并低于疫情前。 3、 收入增速和失业率具有中后期周期性特征。 4、 当前政策利率离中性利率并不太远，预防性降息次数 2~3 次。 5、 维持美国十年期国债利率下限 3.3~3.55%，上限 4.6 ~4.85%；美股维持短期没有明显风险点，长期中性，短线仓位建议 11 月。 就业紧绷程度回落至疫情高位平台以下，非农总量短期尚可，就业负面因素开始值得关注。以岗位空缺数与非农就业总和作 为衡量劳动力市场的需求方，以劳动力人数作为供给方，7 月需求占供给百分比进一 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [2][24]. Core Insights - New home sales remain low, while second-hand home transactions continue to grow, driven by suppressed demand in core cities [3][19]. - In the past five trading days, the A-share real estate sector outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative decline of -2.38% compared to -2.52% for the CSI A-share index [2][7]. - The report highlights that the cumulative sales area of new homes in 24 cities has decreased by 20.7% year-on-year, while second-hand homes have seen a 3.6% increase [3][12]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - A-share real estate index (801180.SL) has a cumulative decline of -2.38% over the last five trading days, while the H-share real estate index (HSPDM.HK) has a slight increase of 0.06% [2][8]. - The top five A-share companies by cumulative increase in the last five days include Hefei Urban Construction (12.5%) and Quzhou Development (6.5%) [2][9]. Sales Data - The cumulative sales area of new homes from January 1 to September 7 in 24 cities is 9,092.3 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 20.7% [3][12]. - The cumulative sales area of second-hand homes in 10 cities is 5,231.8 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [3][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the recovery in core cities will benefit quality real estate companies such as China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and Greentown China [3][19]. - Increased supply and price advantages of second-hand homes are expected to sustain transaction volumes [3][19]. Upcoming Events - The report notes that the August real estate data will be released in mid-September 2024 [4].

Investment Rating - Strong Buy/Maintain [2] Core Views - The company reported H1 2024 revenue of 612 million yuan, a yoy decrease of 10.66%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 123 million yuan, a yoy decrease of 8.56% [2] - Despite the challenging environment in the pig farming industry, the company's ruminant vaccines showed strong growth, with multiple new products such as high-end brucellosis vaccines and sheep vaccines being launched [2] - The company's gross profit margin in H1 2024 was 57.92%, up 0.31 percentage points yoy, and the net profit margin was 20.21%, up 0.89 percentage points yoy [2] - The company is expected to see a recovery in pig vaccines in H2 2024 as farming profitability improves [2] - The company is actively advancing R&D, with 75 million yuan invested in H1 2024, accounting for 12.26% of revenue, and several new vaccines in the registration stage [2] - The company is building the world's first animal mRNA vaccine production facility, expected to be operational by 2025, and has established an AI + synthetic biology innovation platform [2] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of 328 million yuan, 418 million yuan, and 524 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - EPS is forecasted to be 0.29 yuan, 0.37 yuan, and 0.47 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - The PE ratio is expected to be 20x, 16x, and 13x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] Industry and Market Data - The company is a leading player in the animal health industry, with a product portfolio covering over 100 vaccines for pigs, poultry, pets, and ruminants [4] - The company has production qualifications for foot-and-mouth disease and highly pathogenic avian influenza vaccines, with leading domestic technology and product quality [4] - The company's 52-week stock price range is 10.87 yuan to 5.96 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 6.677 billion yuan [4] Financial Metrics - Revenue is expected to grow from 1.732 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.490 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 19.54% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 328 million yuan in 2024 to 524 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 25.46% [5] - ROE is forecasted to increase from 5.88% in 2024 to 8.46% in 2026 [5] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 60% from 2024 to 2026 [5]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 PDF 行 业 潜 在 规 模 广 阔 ， 仅 少 数 厂 商 掌 握 完 整 核 心 技 术 。 PDF （PortableDocumentFormat）作为一种电子文档格式，其在不同设备与操作 系统间能保持显示一致性，忠实再现原稿每一个字符、颜色及图象，同时具 有体积小、速度快的优点，因此在电子文档、工程制图、出版印刷、档案管 理等领域被广泛使用。参考 Adobe 与 IDC 的数据，2024 年行业的潜在市场规 模约 320 亿美元，行业增长因素包括高频使用垂直行业场景渗透、应用领域 扩展、网页及移动场景、共享 PDF、免费用户及盗版用户向付费转换、电子 签名与人工智能功能、新兴市场增长推动等。全球仅少数软件企业通过自主 研发掌握了完整的 PDF 格式生成、渲染、转换与版面识别等关键技术。特别 是对于稳定性要求高的企业客户，技术可以构筑显著壁垒。行业发展日趋成 熟，全球维度逐步形成了以 Adobe、Foxit（福昕）、Kofax、Nitro 等为代表 的知名品牌。Adobe 为绝对龙头，福昕在 Kofax、Nitro、P ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading global supplier of turbocharger housings, with improving operational quality and a significant recovery in profitability, as evidenced by a gross margin increase to 17.6% in 2023, up 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][16]. - The company has established stable partnerships with major turbocharger system manufacturers, maintaining a global market share of approximately 8% since 2018, which is higher than its A-share competitors [1][36]. - The global turbocharger system market is expected to remain resilient, with limited impact from the rise of electric vehicles, as hybrid vehicle sales are increasing significantly [1][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of turbocharger components, including turbine housings and intermediate housings, and has been listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange since January 2018 [1][12]. 2. Market Dynamics - The global turbocharger system market is showing resilience, with hybrid vehicle sales growing rapidly, while the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles has plateaued [1][23]. - In 2023, the total sales of hybrid vehicles in China, the US, and Europe reached 8.65 million units, a year-on-year increase of 41%, while the growth rate for pure electric vehicles was only 28% [1][23]. 3. Investment Highlights - The company has comprehensive coverage of major global turbocharger manufacturers, leveraging its scale and technological advantages to enhance market share [2][36]. - The high fixed cost structure of turbocharger housing production means that economies of scale will lead to more pronounced earnings elasticity as production capacity increases [2][41]. - Cash flow is entering a growth phase, with a continuous reduction in the debt-to-asset ratio, which decreased from a peak of 69% in 2021 to 61% in 2023 [5][47]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.52 billion, 1.77 billion, and 2.06 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.78, 0.91, and 1.06 yuan [5][51]. - The report anticipates stable revenue growth, with projected revenues of 28.53 billion, 31.14 billion, and 34.00 billion yuan for the same period [5][51].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, specifically highlighting NVIDIA's growth trajectory and its strategic positioning in the AI and data center markets [1] Core Viewpoints - NVIDIA's growth can be divided into five key stages, each marked by strategic pivots and technological advancements that have solidified its market leadership [3] - NVIDIA has successfully navigated multiple challenges through strategic adjustments and technological innovation, maintaining its competitive edge [4] - The company's success is attributed to its foresight in market trends and relentless focus on R&D, which has allowed it to capitalize on emerging opportunities such as AI and data centers [5] - NVIDIA's dominance in the AI chip market, particularly in GPUs, has positioned it as a key beneficiary of the AI revolution, with its data center business becoming a major revenue driver [6] Summary by Sections NVIDIA's Growth Stages - **Stage 1 (1993-1998):** NVIDIA established itself in the 3D gaming market by aligning with Microsoft's DirectX and focusing on hardware performance [3] - **Stage 2 (1999-2006):** The company accelerated growth through IPOs, acquisitions, and a strong R&D focus, leading to rapid expansion and market leadership [4] - **Stage 3 (2006-2015):** NVIDIA made strategic moves into GPGPU and CUDA platforms, laying the groundwork for future growth in AI and cryptocurrency markets [4] - **Stage 4 (2015-2021):** The first wave of AI revolution, driven by deep learning, propelled NVIDIA's market value from $10 billion to $800 billion, with data centers becoming a key growth area [3] - **Stage 5 (2022-2024):** The second wave of AI revolution, fueled by generative AI and large models like ChatGPT, further solidified NVIDIA's position as a leader in AI training and data center solutions [3] Overcoming Challenges - **Challenge 1:** Initial product compatibility issues were resolved by aligning with DirectX standards and improving marketing efforts [4] - **Challenge 2:** The "Graphics Gate" incident was managed through product recalls and the release of improved models [4] - **Challenge 3:** Failure in the mobile market led to a strategic pivot towards gaming consoles and autonomous driving [4] - **Challenge 4:** Supply chain disruptions were mitigated through increased inventory and product diversification [4] - **Challenge 5:** The decline in cryptocurrency mining demand was offset by a focus on data centers and autonomous driving [4] Key Success Factors - **Foresight:** NVIDIA's early recognition of the potential in 3D gaming and AI markets allowed it to stay ahead of competitors [5] - **R&D Focus:** Continuous investment in R&D has enabled NVIDIA to maintain technological leadership and adapt to market changes [5] Investment Recommendations - NVIDIA's leadership in AI and data center markets, combined with its strong ecosystem and continuous innovation, makes it a key player in the global AI chip market [6] - The report also highlights opportunities in the domestic AI chip market, driven by increased investment in computing power and restrictions on high-performance chip exports [6]

东 兴 晨 报 *价格单位为元/股 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 【东兴食品饮料】海天味业（603288.SH）：峰会路转，海阔天空（20240905） 事件：2024 上半年营业收入 141.56 亿元，同比+9.18%；归母净利润 34.53 亿元，同比+11.52%；扣非归母净利润 33.25 亿元，同比+11.95%。对应 2024 年 Q2，公司营业收入 64.62 亿元，同比+7.98%；归母净利润 15.34 亿元，同 比+11.12%；扣非归母净利润 14.65 亿元，同比+10.24%。 公司自 22 年开始遭遇压力后于今年一季度开始恢复增长，目前已经连续增长 两个季度。分产品来看，24 年上半年酱油收入 72.64 亿元，同比+6.85%，调 味 酱 / 蚝 油 / 其他收入分别为 14.52/23.22/21.46 亿 元 ， 分 别 同 比 +8.55%/+5.71%/22.31%。公司多品类策略取得一定成效，料酒等产品推动公 司其他品类高增长。Q2 单季酱油及蚝油增速降低至小个位数，其他产品及调 味酱依然保持较好增长。渠道方面，公司线上渠道恢复增长，其中 Q2 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for Foxit Software [2][7]. Core Views - The PDF industry has a vast potential market size, estimated at approximately $32 billion in 2024, with only a few companies mastering the complete core technologies [2][47]. - Foxit Software is positioned as a leading company in the PDF sector, with a strong focus on productization and global competitiveness, achieving nearly 90% of its revenue from overseas [2][3]. - The company's subscription business is growing, with an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of 325 million yuan as of mid-2024, reflecting a 30% increase from the end of 2023 [2][3][64]. Summary by Sections PDF Industry - The PDF format is widely used across various fields due to its consistency and efficiency in document representation [2][15]. - The industry is dominated by a few key players, with Adobe being the leader, while Foxit holds a strong position among secondary competitors [2][47]. Company Overview - Foxit Software specializes in PDF-related products and services, including PDF editors, development platforms, and enterprise solutions [4][27]. - The company has a complete product matrix and has been recognized as one of the "2024 Best Software Companies" by G2, being the only PDF vendor besides Adobe to make the top 100 list [2][3][54]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 610.76 million yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 5.33% [8]. - The gross margin remains high at around 95%, indicating strong profitability potential despite current losses [42][44]. Growth Logic - The core growth logic for Foxit Software is the potential to capture market share from Adobe, with a focus on B2B clients and a strategy to leverage competitive pricing [3][52]. - The transition to a subscription model is expected to enhance revenue stability and customer retention, with a current subscription revenue growth of 68% year-on-year [64][71]. AI and Cloud Computing - The integration of AI technologies is anticipated to enhance product offerings and customer engagement, providing a competitive edge in the market [64][66]. - Foxit is actively investing in AI capabilities to improve document processing efficiency and user experience [66][67].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Eastern Airlines Logistics [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 11.286 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.277 billion yuan, up 0.45% year-on-year [4] - The decline in air freight rates has led to a decrease in the gross margin of air express services, but operational efficiency continues to improve [5] - The revenue from comprehensive logistics solutions grew significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 55.72% [5] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, proposing a mid-term cash dividend of 0.389 yuan per share, which accounts for 48.35% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [5] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of the year, air express business revenue was 4.333 billion yuan, down 4.31% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 19.11%, a decrease of 9.40 percentage points [4] - The comprehensive logistics solutions segment generated revenue of 5.727 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 13.79%, down 1.94 percentage points [4] - Ground service business revenue increased by 4.70% year-on-year to 1.222 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement from 36.46% to 40.08% [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 2.92 billion, 3.59 billion, and 4.20 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.84, 2.26, and 2.65 yuan [5] - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 8.7, 7.1, and 6.1 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in growth since the first quarter of 2024, with a year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit [2][3]. - The company aims for a revenue target of 27.51 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.02%, and a net profit target of 6.23 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.72% [3][4]. - The company has implemented an employee stock ownership plan to enhance employee motivation, with a target of at least 10.8% growth in net profit for 2024 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 14.156 billion yuan, up 9.18% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.453 billion yuan, up 11.52% year-on-year [2]. - For Q2 2024, revenue was 6.462 billion yuan, an increase of 7.98% year-on-year, with net profit reaching 1.534 billion yuan, up 11.12% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 36.86%, a year-on-year increase of 0.95 percentage points, primarily due to declining raw material prices [2]. Product Performance - The revenue from soy sauce in the first half of 2024 was 7.264 billion yuan, up 6.85% year-on-year, while other products like seasoning sauces and oyster sauce also showed positive growth [2]. - The company’s multi-category strategy has yielded results, with products like cooking wine contributing to high growth in other categories [2]. Channel and Regional Performance - Online sales have rebounded, with Q2 online growth reaching 38.16%, while offline channels remained stable with slight growth [2]. - The southern region led growth with an increase of 13.27%, while other regions achieved single-digit growth [2]. Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain stable profit margins and continue to benefit from its strong channel, product, and brand advantages [3]. - Forecasts for net profit from 2024 to 2026 are 6.296 billion yuan, 6.885 billion yuan, and 7.436 billion yuan, respectively, indicating growth rates of 11.90%, 9.35%, and 8.00% [3][4].