化工行业：行业供需格局预期改善 ——化工行业 2024 年半年度展望 2024 年 7 月 29 日 看好/维持 基础化工 行业报告 分析师 刘宇卓 电话：010-66554030 邮箱：liuyuzhuo@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480516110002 投资摘要： 我国化工行业景气向好，行业供需格局有望进一步改善。回顾 2024 年上半年，化工品价格指数小幅震荡走高，同时供给端、 需求端、库存端均出现积极变化。综合对价格、需求、供给、库存及成本等因素的讨论，我们认为，虽然目前全球能源类成 本仍在高位区间，成本压力犹存，但是从供给角度来看，化工行业投资增速已经开始放缓，部分产品产能投放趋于尾声，行 业新增产能投放对于市场供应端的冲击或有所减轻；从制造业需求及库存去化角度来看，国内化工品需求存在边际改善的预 期。展望 2024 年下半年，伴随着供应端改善、需求端复苏的预期，化工行业景气度有望边际回暖。 展望 2024 年下半年，我们认为国内化工行业供需格局有改善预期、行业景气度有望边际回暖。不论是从价格周期角度、还 是行业竞争格局边际变化的角度来看，我们认为部分细分领域存在较好的投资机会。因 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry for 2024 [2] Core Insights - The supply cycle of the metal industry shows signs of bottoming out, with structural increases in exploration data indicating potential supply elasticity in the coming years [3][18] - The growth attributes of the metal industry are significantly rising, driven by the transition to green low-carbon energy and the development of new productive forces [5][19] - There is a notable divergence in the supply status of various metal types, with precious and industrial metals seeing a decline in mining projects, while small metals for new energy are experiencing significant growth [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global metal industry's supply cycle is showing signs of structural uplift, with average annual exploration investment in the mining sector reaching $12.32 billion from 2021 to 2023, a 35.4% increase [3][18] - The average supply growth rate of global mining is 5.75% in 2023, aligning with the median supply growth rate over the past 30 years [18] - China's cumulative production growth rate for ten non-ferrous metals has been stable, averaging 7.35% since 2023 [18] 2. Differentiation in Metal Supply - The number of mining projects for precious and industrial metals has decreased, while projects for lithium, cobalt, and nickel have surged, with exploration investment for these battery metals increasing by 42% to a historical high of $1.64 billion in 2023 [4][19] - The number of gold drilling projects fell by 36% to 30,345 in 2023, indicating a tightening supply for precious metals [4][19] 3. Growth Attributes and Market Conditions - The metal industry's growth is increasingly focused on the structural expansion of demand driven by green energy transitions [5][19] - The profitability and operational efficiency of the non-ferrous metal industry have improved, with average gross margins rising to 10.06% and average ROE increasing to 11.71% [5][19] - The investment landscape is shifting, with public fund holdings in the metal sector increasing from 5.06% in Q2 2022 to 5.41% in Q2 2024, reflecting enhanced allocation attributes [5][19] 4. Specific Metal Insights - Copper supply is under pressure, with a projected cumulative consumption increase of 11.3% to 11.345 million tons from 2024 to 2027 [6][19] - The aluminum market is experiencing structural optimization, with domestic bauxite supply showing signs of contraction [6][19] - The gold market's pricing logic has shifted, with supply-demand dynamics becoming more critical in determining price stability [6][19] - Platinum is entering a structural shortage phase, with a projected supply gap of 9.6 tons in 2024 [6][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the construction and building materials industry in 2024 [1] Core Insights - The real estate sector continues to drag down the economy and industry demand, with fixed asset investment in real estate declining for the third consecutive year, marking the largest drag on the economy in over a decade [1][8] - The construction and building materials industry is experiencing a historical low in demand, but the concentration of the industry is expected to increase, providing opportunities for leading and strong companies [2][63] - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and improving demand are expected to be implemented in the second half of 2024, which could lead to a healthier development trajectory for the real estate sector [1][54] Summary by Sections 1. Economic Overview - The construction and manufacturing investments are stabilizing, but the real estate sector continues to negatively impact the economy and industry [9] - Local governments are reducing special bond issuance due to debt pressures, while central government efforts are aimed at stabilizing infrastructure investment [10][11] 2. Demand Dynamics - Exports have improved, contributing positively to GDP growth, while domestic consumption remains weak due to declining wealth effects from real estate [27][28] - The real estate sector's return to a long-term healthy development path is crucial for overall economic recovery [41] 3. Policy Measures - Continuous policy measures are being introduced to mitigate risks in the real estate sector, with a focus on stabilizing prices and improving market conditions [46][54] - The government is expected to continue implementing supportive policies in the second half of 2024 to facilitate a return to a healthy real estate market [54] 4. New Productive Forces - Emphasis on improving input-output efficiency and asset value through policy initiatives is seen as essential for enhancing economic performance [56][60] - The focus on new productive forces aims to optimize production relationships and improve overall efficiency [57][58] 5. Industry Concentration - The trend of increasing industry concentration remains unchanged, with leading companies expected to benefit from the current market conditions [2][63] - The ongoing low demand environment will accelerate the elimination of weaker players, leading to a more balanced supply-demand dynamic [63][72] 6. Investment Recommendations - Companies to focus on include Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, Dongpeng Holdings, and others, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the expected market recovery [2][76]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the potential growth opportunities for the company through the establishment of a large-scale closed testing ground for intelligent connected vehicles in the Yangtze River Delta, with a total investment of approximately 1.5 billion yuan [1] - The project will include 8 specialized testing roads and a comprehensive energy center, which will meet all testing requirements for intelligent connected vehicles and heavy-duty commercial vehicles [1] - The report anticipates a significant increase in demand for closed testing services as new standards for intelligent connected vehicles are implemented by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Standardization Management Committee [1] Group 2 - The real estate sector is prioritized in the central government's risk prevention strategy, reflecting the importance of the industry to the economy and public welfare [2] - The report emphasizes that the government's focus on real estate risk management is aimed at ensuring the long-term healthy development of the sector [2] Group 3 - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 179 million yuan, 223 million yuan, and 293 million yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.14, 0.17, and 0.22 yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 41, 33, and 25 for the years 2024 to 2026, maintaining a "recommended" rating for investment [3]

银行行业：稳增长、保息差目标下， 存贷款同步降息 事件：政策利率、LPR、存款相继降息，释放稳增长、保息差的积极信号。 行 业 研 究 7 月 22 日，央行推出 4 条重磅操作，货币政策框架调整迈出重要一步。 （1）将公开市场 7 天期逆回购操作调整为"固定利率、数量招标"，并将 操作利率下调 10BP 至 1.70%。（2）7 月份 1 年、5 年以上 LPR 均下降 10BP 至 3.35%、3.85%。（3）对有出售中长期债券需求的 MLF 参与机构，可申 请阶段性减免 MLF 质押品。（4）同步下调各期限 SLF 利率 10BP。 7 月 25 日，国有大行下调存款挂牌利率，定期存款利率降幅 10-40BP。 7 月 25 日，央行下调 1 年期 MLF 中标利率 20BP 至 2.30%。 点评： 三中全会后、稳增长诉求增强，降息体现"以我为主"政策思路。近期公布的 经济数据显示二季度国内经济增速有一定下滑压力，内需不足问题依然突出。 三中全会指出要"坚定不移实现全年经济社会发展目标"，稳增长诉求有所增 强。此时降息体现了央行"以我为主"的政策思路。 新货币政策框架逐步明确：以 7 天 OMO 利 ...

618 峰值前移导致增速环比下降：6 月增速下降与 618 峰值前移有一定关联。由于部分电商平台将 618 大促 开启时间提前到 5 月，导致今年 618 峰值前移，因此 5 月增速较高，而 6 月增速有所回落。虽然增速下降， 但 6 月件量绝对值依旧处于较高水平。 事件：7 月 22 日，齐鲁银行发布 2024 年半年度业绩快报：上半年公司实现营收 64.12 亿，同比增长 5.53%； 归母净利润 23.47 亿，同比增长 16.98%。1H24 年化 ROE 为 12.66%，同比提高 0.03pct。6 月末，公司不良 率 1.24%，拨备覆盖率 309.25%。 净利润增速环比提升，预计在同业排名靠前。上半年齐鲁银行营收同比增长 5.53%，增速与 Q1 持平；归母净 利润同比增长 16.98%，增速环比 Q1 提升 1pct。预计齐鲁银行上半年盈利增速在同业排名靠前，判断主要得 益于规模平稳较快增长，债市震荡偏牛行情下其他非息收入高增，以及资产质量稳健表现下、信用成本下降、 拨备反哺力度加大。 投资建议：深耕经济大省，高扩表、资产质量改善、业绩释放具有潜力。齐鲁银行上半年业绩延续高增长。我 们认为 ...

纺织服装行业：纺织制造企业二季 度订单较好，预计业绩具备韧性 事件：根据国家统计局数据，2024 年 6 月，我国纺织品服装出口额为 273.95 亿 美元，同比增长 2.54%。其中，纺织品出口额为 122.49 亿美元，同比增长 6.73%； 服装出口额为 151.46 亿美元，同比下降 0.61%。2024 年 1-6 月，我国纺织品服 装累计出口额为 1431.76 亿美元，同比增长 1.54%，其中纺织品累计出口额为 693.51 亿美元，同比增长 3.27%；服装累计出口额为 738.25 亿美元，同比下降 0.02%。纺织服装的出口数据维持微弱正增长。 纺织出口整体平稳。海外纺织服装经历了 2023 年去库目前库存恢复至较好水平， 加之需求层面国际市场基本稳定，外贸情况有所好转。但是在海外通胀压力之下， 需求景气度仍偏弱，使得出口整体情况呈现弱增长。在出口整体稳健的情况下， 行业公司或出现分化，可自下而上关注二季度订单情况。 重点公司好于行业：从运动鞋服制造商的月度数据和部分公司业绩预告观察，重 点二季度订单良好，部分企业环比景气度有所提升。由于 2023 年海外鞋服品牌 处在去库存周期，产业链 ...

东兴晨报 P1 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------|-------|--------------------------------|-------------------| | 分析师推荐 | A 股港股市场 \n指数名称 | 2024 | 年 7 月 24 \n收盘价 | 日星期三 \n涨跌 % | | 【东兴策略】中小市值有望迎估值修复，关注设备更新主线——机械行业 | 上证指数 | | 2,901.95 | -0.46 | | 2024 年半年度展望（ 20240724） 机械行业涨幅排名靠后，整体估值处于历史低位。年初至今（ 7 月 18 日）申 | 深证成指 | | 8,493.1 | -1.32 | | 万机械一级行业指 ...

中小市值有望迎估值修复,关注设备更新 主线 2024 年 7 月 24 日 看好/维持 机械 行业报告 ——机械行业 2024 年半年度展望 分析师 任天辉 电话:010-66554037 邮箱:renth@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号:S1480523020001 投资摘要: 机械行业涨幅排名靠后,整体估值处于历史低位。年初至今(7 月 18 日)申万机械一级行业指数涨幅-16.30%, 涨幅位居第 22 位。跑输同期上证指数、沪深 300、中证 500 指数 18.15、16.38 和 6.15 个百分点。从估 值来看,截至 2024 年 7 月 18 日,申万机械设备一级指数 PE-TTM(剔除负值)为 22.33 倍,位于 3.98% 历史分位,低于 2014 年以来历史中位数 27.65 倍。从 2024 年中报机械设备公募基金配置比例为 3.02%, 排名第 12 位。从 2024 中报相对于 2024 年 Q1 来看,机械设备公募基金配置比例变化-0.15 个百分点,相 对于其他行业公募基金配置比例变化,排名倒数第七。 细分板块业绩分化。从年初至今(7 月 18 日)机械设备细分行业来看 ...

银行行业:基金持仓占比环比继续 提升,大小两端银行表现更优 2024 年 7 月 24 日 看好/维持 银行 行业报告 ——24Q2 基金持仓分析 事件:近期公募基金陆续披露 2024 年中报,我们持续跟踪"普通股票型+偏股 混合型+灵活配置型"口径下的主动偏股型基金重仓持股情况。 点评: Q2 银行板块绝对、相对收益明显,主要围绕高股息、业绩确定性个股。Q2 银行板块整体上涨 7.6%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 9.8pct。在偏弱的经济预期和稳 健红利策略驱动下,二季度银行板块延续一季度上涨行情。其中,国有行、股 份行、城商行、农商行分别+10.1%、+5.9%、+7.6%、+8.5%。从个股来看, 市场主要交易高股息国有行,业绩确定性中小行,以及资产质量、业绩预期改 善股份行。二季度涨幅超 10%的个股有交通银行(+17.8%)、杭州银行 (+17.5%)、南京银行(+16.0%)、浦发银行(+15.4%)、齐鲁银行(+14.5%)、 成都银行(+11.7%)、兴业银行(+11.7%)。 Q2 银行股机构持仓占比环比继续上升,持仓绝对水平仍处历史偏低分位。截 至 2024 年 6 月末,主动偏股型公募基金 ...