东 兴 晨 报 分析师推荐 格依旧处于底部（20240723） 618 峰值前移导致增速环比下降：6 月增速下降与 618 峰值前移有一定关联。 由于部分电商平台将 618 大促开启时间提前到 5 月，导致今年 618 峰值前移， 因此 5 月增速较高，而 6 月增速有所回落。虽然增速下降，但 6 月件量绝对 值依旧处于较高水平。 续提升的空间有限，若价格战缓和则相关公司业绩都具备较大弹性。我们建 议重点关注行业龙头中通与圆通。 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 点评： 【东兴交通运输】快递 6 月数据点评：618 峰值前移导致件量增速下降，价 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-----------|--------| | A 股港股市场 \n指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 % | | 上证指数 | 2,915.37 | -1.65 | | 深证成指 | 8,606.58 | -2.97 | | 创业板 | 1,671.44 | -3.04 | | 中小板 | 5,548.93 | -3.15 | | 沪深 300 | 3,43 ...

齐鲁银行(601665.SH):资产质量 稳中向好,净利润增速提升 ——2024 年半年度业绩快报点评 事件:7 月 22 日,齐鲁银行发布 2024 年半年度业绩快报:上半年公 司实现营收 64.12 亿,同比增长 5.53%;归母净利润 23.47 亿,同比 增长 16.98%。1H24 年化 ROE 为 12.66%,同比提高 0.03pct。6 月 末,公司不良率 1.24%,拨备覆盖率 309.25%。 点评: 净利润增速环比提升,预计在同业排名靠前。上半年齐鲁银行营收同 比增长 5.53%,增速与 Q1 持平;归母净利润同比增长 16.98%,增 速环比 Q1 提升 1pct。预计齐鲁银行上半年盈利增速在同业排名靠 前,判断主要得益于规模平稳较快增长,债市震荡偏牛行情下其他非 息收入高增,以及资产质量稳健表现下、信用成本下降、拨备反哺力 度加大。 Q2 信贷保持平稳较快投放,存款增速环比提升。6 月末,齐鲁银行贷 款总额 3266 亿,同比增长 15.3%,增速与 Q1 基本持平,贷款保持 平稳较快投放。上半年累计投放 264 亿,同比多增 4 亿。6 月末,存 款总额 4232 亿,同比增长 9 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the potential growth opportunities for the company in the smart connected vehicle testing sector, particularly with the launch of a large-scale testing facility in the Yangtze River Delta region [19][21] - The facility, covering approximately 4,000 acres with an investment of about 1.5 billion yuan, aims to support the development and testing of smart connected and autonomous vehicles, aligning with national standards for vehicle networking [19][21] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for closed-course testing as standards for smart connected vehicles are established, which will enhance its growth prospects [19][21] Group 2 - The report discusses the favorable conditions for the real estate industry in China, emphasizing the government's dual approach of demand and supply-side policies to stabilize the market [48][49] - It notes that the urbanization rate in China is still low, providing significant demand potential, and that the household debt level is manageable, allowing for a more stable real estate market [49] - The report anticipates a gradual return to a healthy development trajectory for the real estate sector, supported by effective policy measures and a focus on stabilizing housing prices and expectations [29][48] Group 3 - The electronic industry is highlighted as a sector poised for growth, particularly with the integration of AI technologies, which are expected to drive new production capabilities and market opportunities [16][18] - Investment opportunities are identified in three key areas: AI terminals, photoresists for chip manufacturing, and EDA tools, with significant market growth projected in these segments [16][18] - The report indicates that the global EDA market is expected to grow from $17.72 billion in 2024 to $26.59 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.46% [16][18] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of China's increasing production capacity and the growing demand for high-end photoresists [16][18] - It notes that by 2026, China's 12-inch wafer production capacity is expected to reach 2.4 million pieces per month, increasing its global market share from 22% in 2022 to 25% [16][18] - The semiconductor photoresist market is projected to exceed $2.8 billion by 2027, indicating robust growth potential in this area [16][18]

快递 6 月数据点评:618 峰值前移导致 件量增速下降,价格依旧处于底部 事件:6 月全国快递服务企业业务完成量 145.7 亿件,同比增长 17.7%, 增速较 5 月的 23.8%环比下降。分类型看,6 月同城件业务量同比增 长 13.5%,异地件业务量增长 18.2%。 2024 年 7 月 23 日 看好/维持 交通运输 行业报告 未来 3-6 个月行业大事: 2024-7-14 国家邮政局公布 7 月快递业量价 数据 2024-7-18 A 股上市快递公司公布 7 月量价 数据 数据来源:同花顺、邮政局官网、上市公司公告 行业基本资料 占比% 股票家数 128 2.8% 行业市值(亿元) 29950.4 3.65% 流通市值(亿元) 26099.91 3.98% 行业平均市盈率 16.37 / 行业指数走势图 交通运输 沪深300 -26.4% -19.0% -11.6% -4.2% 3.2% 10.7% 7/24 10/23 1/22 4/22 7/22 资料来源:恒生聚源、东兴证券研究所 分析师:曹奕丰 021-25102904 caoyf_yjs@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号: S1 ...

传媒互联网&通信行业:拼多多自动 跟价服务扩大改价商品范围,中国 联通推进天地一体 2024 年 7 月 22 日 看好/维持 传媒 行业报告 周观点: 共进股份四大板块经营稳定,下半年订单有望转好。上半年公司国 产海思方案 WIFI 产品已成功获取客户项目,运营商直营业务部突 破终端公司组网类新订单;数通板块,800G 数据中心交换机、核 心路由等高阶数通产品持续交付;移动通信板块,FWA 产品完成 Redcap 新技术新方案项目开发,出货额同比增幅明显;新业务板 块,新产品发展部完成智能语音识别芯片定制研发、自研模组开发, 客户智能家居系统试产订单顺利交付;机顶盒、汽车电子出货额同 比增幅分别超过 60%、350%。我们认为,国内企业持续布局算力 中心,高端交换机市场需求有望扩大;以及北美合作厂商持续推进, 越南工厂交付能力持续提升。综合以上三点,下半年公司订单有望 转好。 走势概览: 本周(2024.7.15-2024.7.19),传媒(申万)指数下跌 0.21%,通 信(申万)指数下跌 3.30%,上证指数上涨 0.37%,创业板指数上 涨 2.49%,恒生科技指数下跌 6.49%。 本周(2024. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a weakening in new home transactions, with the central government granting local authorities more autonomy in market regulation [2][4]. - In the past five trading days, the A-share real estate sector underperformed the broader market, with a cumulative decline of 0.72% compared to a 0.15% increase in the CSI A-share index [2]. - The report notes that the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in 23 cities from January 1 to July 20 has decreased by 25.4% year-on-year, showing a slight improvement from the previous value of -25.9% [3]. - The report anticipates that first-tier cities may further relax housing purchase restrictions, which could stimulate demand for improved housing [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - A-share real estate index (801180.SL) has a cumulative decline of 0.72% over the last five trading days, while the H-share real estate index (HSPDM.HK) has declined by 5.00% [2][10]. - The top five performing A-share companies in the last five days include Tibet City Investment (18.9%), I Love My Home (12.6%), and Urban Construction Development (10.4%) [2][11]. Sales Data - The cumulative sales area of commercial housing in 23 cities from January 1 to July 20 shows a year-on-year decline of 25.4%, with major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing declines of 29.3%, 20.7%, 23.6%, and 28.8% respectively [3][13]. - In July, the sales area for new homes in 23 cities has shown a month-to-date increase of 1.5%, with notable performances in Beijing and Guangzhou [3][14]. Policy Developments - The report discusses the outcomes of the 20th Central Committee's Third Plenary Session, which emphasizes the establishment of a dual rental and purchase housing system and the need for increased supply of affordable housing [3][4]. - Local governments are now empowered to adjust housing purchase restrictions and reform financing methods for real estate development [3][4].

行 业 研 究 银行业跟踪：深化体制改革、防风险， 推动金融高质量发展 2024 年 7 月 22 日 看好/维持 银行 行业报告 周观点 中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第三次全体会议，于 2024 年 7 月 15 日至 18 日在北京召开，会议审议通过了《中共中央关于进一步全面深 化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》。决定提及"要完善宏观调控制度 体系，统筹推进财税、金融等重点领域改革，增强宏观政策取向一致 性"，"健全保障和改善民生制度体系，解决好人民最关心最直接最现 实的利益问题。" 金融体制改革：与中央金融工作会议一脉相承，首次提出制定金融法。 主要内容包括（1）加快完善中央银行制度，畅通货币政策传导机制。 积极发展五篇大文章，加强对重大战略、重点领域、薄弱环节的优质 金融服务。完善金融机构定位和治理，健全服务实体经济的激励约束 机制。发展多元股权融资，加快多层次债券市场发展，提高直接融资 比重。优化国有金融资本管理体制。（2）防风险、强监管，促进资本 市场健康稳定发展。支持长期资金入市。提高上市公司质量，强化上 市公司监管和退市制度。建立增强资本市场内在稳定性长效机制。完 善大股东、实际控制人行为规范约 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][10]. Core Viewpoints - The operation of the Yangtze River Delta (Yancheng) intelligent connected vehicle testing ground is expected to open new growth opportunities for the company, which is a key project funded by its IPO [1][3]. - The company is positioned as a domestic third-party comprehensive testing ground operator, benefiting from high profitability, strong cash generation capabilities, and a strategic location in the Yangtze River Delta [2][3]. - The report forecasts net profits for the company to be 179 million, 223 million, and 293 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.14, 0.17, and 0.22 yuan [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 356.73 million yuan in 2023 to 692.85 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4][5]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain robust, with estimates of 67.68%, 66.64%, and 70.71% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][5]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to be 40.94%, 38.74%, and 42.31% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][5].

东兴晨报 P19 增长曲线，聚焦儿童零食赛道的子品牌"小鹿蓝蓝"确立了"儿童高端健康零食"的新定位，并在今年上半年 实现了双位数增长并获得较好盈利。7 月 10 日，三只松鼠官宣与甄养合作，正式进入坚果乳市场，坚果乳饮 契合送礼属性，Q3 双节有望延续年货节景气。三只松鼠依托线上渠道的竞争优势，较成熟的管理能力以及较 强的品牌力赋能甄养，甄养基于十几年线下渠道精耕的能力，超 20 年的产品经验，为坚果乳饮品在线下渠道 的快速开拓和持续精耕打下了基础，双方有望在产品和渠道上实现线上线下的赋能互补和融合，看好新品类未 来持续对业绩增长做出贡献。 公司盈利预测及投资评级：我们认为，公司在传统电商渠道稳定发展的同时，借助社交电商获得快速发展和突 破，并通过线下渠道进一步夯实渠道基础，公司有望在多渠道上均衡发展，有利于公司的长期稳健增长。此外， 公司持续优化供应链布局，有望逐步提升产品和价格竞争力并实现成本效益的提升，净利润率有望逐步改善。 预计公司 2024-2026 年营业收入分别为 107.99、136.97、161.15 亿元，归母净利润分别为 3.84、5.31 和 6.65 亿元，对应 EPS 分别为 0. ...

大家好我是东京新星司马懿买买提很高兴再次来到万德平台为大家做今天的债市节目今日利率市场整体呈现小幅上行态势短暂表现偏强原因或在于税期资金面情况有所好转回顾近期利率市场表现仍然相对偏强聚焦于本周利率市场中长期及超长期还是仍然强于短短的一个利率市场 一定程度受到近期宏观数据的影响例如进出口数据中巨大分歧以及经济数据整体产需两端的一个分化均体现出内需较弱的情况另一方面由于税期原因导致短端利率表现偏弱但值得关注的是核心逻辑或已出现潜在变化由前期的资产荒主导至现在央行主导为主从市场表现一定程度得到印证 屡次利率快速下行到一定边界央行便会进行管控至以30年活跃券为例下行边际或位于2.4%附近所以探究央行行为及其政策意图或是当下的侧重点之一总计半年央行对于利率管控操作来看央行行为还是循序渐进的 目的或在于逐步调控利率之合理局限或不愿利率快速下行的情况发生截至4月26号市场供给受到约三次利率风险提升最终导致大幅回调7月1号中国央行公告称决定于近期面向部分公开市场业务的一级交易商开展国债记录操作 造成扰动也带动了投资者赎回情绪发酵利率市场出现大幅回调7月8号央行公告将视情况开展临时正回购或临时逆回购操作市场出现大幅回调央行连贯 ...