东 兴 晨 报 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 核心观点：我们认为国有行盈利端具有较强稳定性；高股息稳健分红，在利 率中枢下行背景下，配置价值凸显；机构低仓位、维稳市场资金增持预期强； 中央金融工作会议明确定调"支持国有大型金融机构做优做强"。多重利好因 素将对国有行估值修复形成持续支撑。 盈利端稳定性强。我们预计 2024 年国有大行利润增速有望维持平稳。（1）国 有大行在逆周期调节要求下，将继续发挥头雁作用，维持贷款增速较快增长。 （2）尽管资产端收益率预计进一步下行，但随着负债端政策红利持续释放， 息差收窄压力将得以缓释，有望以量补价支撑营收平稳增长。（3）考虑地方 化债积极推进、地产信用风险在以时间换空间的方式稳步出清，预计大行资 产质量平稳运行，拨备抵补能力充足，可抵补支撑盈利平稳增长。（4）从资 本角度看，在 G-SIBs 和 TLAC 达标要求，以及 RWA 较快增长的背景下，国 有大行保持净利润增长和内生资本稳定补充的必要性上升。 高股息吸引力强。从资产配置角度来看，在当前低增速、低通胀、低利率的 宏观环境下，防御高股息投资价值上升。当前银行板块股息率为 5.29%，处 于 ...

行 业 研 究 食品饮料行业：食品饮料视角看政 2024年3月13日 看好/维持 府工作报告 东 食品饮料 行业报告 兴 证 今年政府工作报告既着重供给侧中长期发展的部署，同时兼顾短期经济增 未来3-6个月行业大事： 券 速的安排。对于食品饮料行业来讲，宏观经济的进一步常态化、以及在扩大国 股 2024-03-12南侨食品：发布年报 内需求方面的政策，将成为食品饮料需求进一步复苏的重要推手。我们看好宏 份 2024-03-16有友食品：年报预计披露日期 观经济复苏下，居民消费意愿和消费能力的变化所带来的需求增量，延续我们 有 2024-03-16金徽酒：年报预计披露日期 策略报告中的观点，建议关注食品饮料行业中顺周期板块。 限 2024-03-16安琪酵母：年报预计披露日期 公 在实施扩大内需战略、促进消费稳定增长方面，相较2023 年政府工作报 2024-03-19汤臣倍健：年报预计披露日期 司 告内容，今年的政府工作报告特别明确指出从增加收入、优化供给、减少限制 2024-03-20舍得酒业：年报预计披露日期 证 性措施等方面综合施策，激发消费潜能。在总量方面，对居民收入增长的要求 2024-03-21桃 ...

行 业 研 究 农林牧渔行业：二育入场猪价回升， 2024年3月13日 看好/维持 不改产能去化趋势 东 农林牧渔 行业报告 兴 ——行业周观点（2024 年第 10 周） 证 券 报告摘要： 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 无 份 生猪养殖：本周生猪价格为14.30元/千克，较上周上涨1.06%;猪肉价格为 有 20.10 元/千克，较上周下跌 1.66%;仔猪价格 34.74 元/千克，较上周下跌 限 2.06%;二元母猪价格为2504.97元/头，较上周上涨0.01%。本周生猪价格 资料来源：iFinD，东兴证券研究所 公 小幅上涨，主要是由于养殖端对后市价格预期较好，二育入场积极，但终端 行业基本资料 占比% 司 猪肉消费依然不振，价格持续上涨动力不足。仔猪价格持续下跌，母猪价格 股票家数 100 2.17% 证 平稳，仔猪价格高位补栏成本较高，养殖端补栏谨慎。2 月 29 日农业农村 券 部印发《生猪产能调控实施方案（2024 年修订）》。此次《方案》修订，将 行业市值(亿元) 12544.4 1.47% 研 全国能繁母猪正常保有量目标从 4100 万头调整为 3900 万头，将能繁母猪 流通市值(亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [1][3]. Core Viewpoints - New home and second-hand home sales continue to decline, with the central government emphasizing the need to increase the construction of affordable housing [1][3]. - The report highlights that the transformation of urban villages and the construction of affordable housing have become crucial for exploring new models of real estate development, which are important for driving real estate investment and market demand [30]. Market Performance - The A-share real estate index decreased by 4.52% in the week of March 4-8, 2024, while the H-share real estate index fell by 1.42% during the same period [2][4]. - The cumulative sales area of commercial housing in 27 cities from January 1 to March 10, 2024, showed a year-on-year decline of 31.55% [13][21]. Sales Data - New home sales in 27 cities saw a year-on-year decline of 31.55% from January 1 to March 10, 2024, with a monthly decline of 52.16% in the same period [13][21]. - Second-hand home sales in 12 cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 12.79% from January 1 to March 10, 2024, with a monthly decline of 44.02% [21][30]. Industry News - The government work report proposed optimizing real estate policies to support the financing needs of various types of real estate enterprises, promoting stable and healthy development of the real estate market [28][29]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the need to establish a housing supply system that combines market and security, and to improve the management of the entire lifecycle of housing [28][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality central state-owned enterprises in first and second-tier cities, which are expected to benefit from the continuous implementation of policies on supply and demand and the accelerated transformation of urban villages [30].

东 兴 晨 东兴晨报 P1 报 2024年3月18日星期一 东 分析师推荐 A股港股市场 兴 证 指数名称 收盘价 涨跌% 【东兴银行】银行行业：利好因素加码，配置价值显著——国有行专题报告 券 （20240311） 上证指数 3,084.93 0.99 股 深证成指 9,752.83 1.46 份 核心观点：我们认为国有行盈利端具有较强稳定性；高股息稳健分红，在利 创业板 1,926.4 2.25 有 率中枢下行背景下，配置价值凸显；机构低仓位、维稳市场资金增持预期强； 限 中小板 6,001.6 1.71 中央金融工作会议明确定调“支持国有大型金融机构做优做强”。多重利好因 公 沪深300 3,603.53 0.94 素将对国有行估值修复形成持续支撑。 司 香港恒生 16,737.12 0.10 盈利端稳定性强。我们预计2024年国有大行利润增速有望维持平稳。（1）国 国企指数 5,848.15 0.48 有大行在逆周期调节要求下，将继续发挥头雁作用，维持贷款增速较快增长。 （2）尽管资产端收益率预计进一步下行，但随着负债端政策红利持续释放， A股新股日历（本周网上发行新股） 息差收窄压力将得以缓释，有望 ...

东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 *价格单位为元/股 数据来源：恒生聚源,东兴证券研究所 东兴晨报 P2 【东兴计算机】计算机行业：人工智能或将成为新质生产力发展重要引擎 ——人工智能行业动态追踪（20240306） 2、3 月 4 日，Anthropic 发布了新一代 AI 大模型系列 Claude 3。该系列包含 三个模型，按能力由弱到强排列分别是 Claude 3 Haiku、Claude 3 Sonnet 和 Claude 3 Opus。 东兴晨报 P3 东 兴 晨 报 核心观点：我们认为国有行盈利端具有较强稳定性；高股息稳健分红，在利 率中枢下行背景下，配置价值凸显；机构低仓位、维稳市场资金增持预期强； 中央金融工作会议明确定调"支持国有大型金融机构做优做强"。多重利好因 素将对国有行估值修复形成持续支撑。 盈利端稳定性强。我们预计 2024 年国有大行利润增速有望维持平稳。（1）国 有大行在逆周期调节要求下，将继续发挥头雁作用，维持贷款增速较快增长。 （2）尽管资产端收益率预计进一步下行，但随着负债端政策红利持续释放， 息差收窄压力将得以缓释，有望以量补价支撑营收平稳增长。（3）考虑地方 化 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a divergence in performance among global stock indices, with Hong Kong and overseas stocks generally declining while A-shares show mixed results. The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced the largest drop at -2.94%, while the Shanghai Composite Index saw an increase of 0.63% [2][77]. Global Stock Indices Performance - The report highlights that major global stock indices, particularly in Hong Kong and overseas markets, have seen declines. The S&P 500 and Hang Seng Index recorded the most significant decreases in valuation metrics, with the S&P 500's PE (TTM) declining by 0.49% and the Hang Seng Index's PE (TTM) decreasing by 1.04% [2][82]. - A-shares, particularly the CSI 300, showed an increase in valuation with a PE (TTM) rise of 1.34%, contrasting with the decline in the ChiNext Index, which fell by 1.17% [2][82]. Industry Valuation Levels - Among the industries, 2 sectors have PE (TTM) values above the historical median, while 28 sectors are below it. The top three sectors by current PE values are Computer, Defense & Military, and Electronics, while the bottom three are Banking, Construction, and Real Estate [30][48]. - The report notes that the oil and petrochemical sector saw the largest increase in valuation at 9.14%, followed by non-ferrous metals at 5.39% and utilities at 4.54%. Conversely, the real estate sector experienced the largest decline at -4.71% [44][72]. Changes in Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that 16 industries saw an increase in PE (TTM) compared to the previous week, while 14 industries experienced a decrease. The oil and petrochemical sector had the highest increase, while the consumer services sector had the largest decline [32][44]. - In terms of PB changes, 15 industries increased while 15 decreased, with the oil and petrochemical sector again leading the gains [33][71]. Risk Premium Analysis - The report mentions that the risk premium for major A-share indices has generally increased, with the Shenzhen 100 index showing the largest increase at 0.14% [38][93]. - The report also highlights that the risk premium for the CSI 300 is approaching the mean plus one standard deviation, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [19][93].

公 司 研 究 越秀交通基建（01052.HK）：扣非业绩 2024年3月8日 强烈推荐/维持 符合预期，北二环高速改扩建即将启动 东 越秀交通基建 公司报告 兴 证 事件：公司发布23年年报，实现收入39.66亿元，同比提升20.6%，其中路 公司简介： 券 费收入38.41亿元，同比提升20.3%。归母净利润7.65亿元，同比提升68.9%， 公司主要从事投资、经营及管理位于中国广 股 低于预期值，主要系对汕头海湾大桥的投资计提了 1.00 亿元的减值损失。剔 东省及其他经济发展高增长省份的高速公 份 路及桥梁，包括位于广东省的广州北二环高 除该影响后公司业绩符合预期。 有 速、广州西二环高速、广州北环高速、虎门 限 大部分控股与参股路产实现收入两位数增长：23 年公司通行费收费大幅提升 大桥、汕头海湾大桥和清连高速；位于湖北 公 主要系两方面原因，一是兰尉高速于22年11月并表，22年仅计算一个多月 省内的汉孝高速、随岳南高速、汉蔡高速、 汉鄂高速、大广南高速；位于广西壮族自治 司 的收入，而23年计算全年收入。二是受益于22年行业受疫情影响较大导致收 区的苍郁高速；还包括天津市津雄高速、湖 证 入基数 ...

行 业 研 究 非银行金融行业跟踪：两会后仍是 2024年3月11日 看好/维持 重要政策窗口期，继续关注证券板 东 非银行金融 行业报告 兴 块 证 券 证券：本周日均成交额环比下降约1100亿至0.99万亿；两融余额（2024年 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 3月7日）微增至1.49万亿。两会正式召开，维护资本市场良性运行的监管举 无 份 措受到社会各界的广泛关注。证监会吴清主席在周三的记者会上表示，要把保 行业基本资料 占比% 有 护投资者权益，特别是中小投资者权益作为未来一段时期证监会的中心任务。 限 股票家数 83 1.8% 完成这个任务将从五个维度发力：1.推动投融资平衡发展；2.缩小不同类型投 公 行业市值(亿元) 55164.77 6.52% 资者间的信息差；3.加强司法保障；4.完善上市公司信息披露；5.实现分红常 司 流通市值(亿元) 42673.98 6.35% 态化。实现上述优化将有望显著改善资本市场生态，推动中长期价投资金进场， 证 进而增加投资者的获得感。我们预计，近期将有更多规范各类参与主体行为， 行业平均市盈率 16.39 / 券 维护资本市场稳定，促进投资者信心回暖的相关政策 ...

Group 1: Core Views - The report suggests that state-owned banks have strong profitability stability and high dividend attractiveness, making them a good investment choice in the current low growth, low inflation, and low interest rate macro environment [3][23][26] - The valuation of state-owned banks is expected to recover due to multiple favorable factors, including stable earnings, high dividend yields, and institutional low positions [8][23][24] Group 2: Banking Sector Analysis - The average dividend yield of state-owned banks is 5.35%, which exceeds the 10-year government bond yield by over 300 basis points, indicating strong investment value [3][23] - The report anticipates that the profit growth rate of state-owned banks will remain stable in 2024, supported by rapid loan growth and a stable asset quality outlook [7][26] - As of March 1, the price-to-book ratio of state-owned banks was 0.59, reflecting a recovery from the low valuation point at the end of 2022 [26] Group 3: Artificial Intelligence Industry Insights - The report highlights that artificial intelligence is expected to become a significant engine of new productivity, with government policies increasingly supporting its development [12][14][27] - The release of high-performance AI models, such as Anthropic's Claude 3, indicates a shift towards multi-modal capabilities, which may increase demand for computational power and reshape the industry landscape [29] - Companies involved in computational power and AI model development are expected to benefit from the industry's growth, including Haiguang Information and Cambrian [14][29] Group 4: Economic and Policy Context - The report notes that the Chinese government is focusing on stimulating domestic demand to counteract the negative impact of the real estate sector on the economy [69][90] - The government is expected to implement policies that enhance consumer spending and infrastructure investment, which will support economic recovery [70][90] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between supply-side reforms and short-term economic growth strategies [46][70]