Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating of GAC Group to "Recommended" [2][3][15] Core Views - GAC Group's revenue increased by 17.76% year-on-year to CNY 12,875.73 million in 2023, driven by a significant rise in self-owned vehicle sales, which grew by 39.9% [2][3] - Despite the revenue growth, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 45.11% to CNY 442.89 million due to intensified market competition affecting profit margins [2][3] - The company completed the restructuring of GAC Mitsubishi, which is expected to stabilize investment income from joint ventures despite declining sales in GAC Toyota and GAC Honda [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, GAC Aion's sales reached 480,003 units, up 77.02%, while GAC Passenger Cars sold 406,505 units, a 12.12% increase [2] - The overall gross margin for the company was 6.9%, slightly down from 7.0% in 2022, with a stable expense ratio of 9.5% [2][5] - Investment income fell to approximately CNY 8.66 billion, a 39.5% decline year-on-year, with joint venture income dropping by 41% [2][5] Future Outlook - The report forecasts GAC Group's net profit for 2024-2026 to be CNY 4.87 billion, CNY 5.63 billion, and CNY 6.59 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 0.46, CNY 0.54, and CNY 0.63 [2][5] - The company plans to repurchase shares, indicating confidence in future growth, with a commitment to distribute at least 10% of annual distributable profits as cash dividends over the next three years [2][3] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 19, 17, and 14 respectively, based on the closing price of A shares on March 29, 2024 [2][5] - The report highlights that the self-owned segment has begun to recover, while GAC's joint ventures still hold advantages in the fuel and hybrid vehicle markets [2][3]

行 业 研 究 非银行金融行业跟踪：投资类业务 2024年4月1日 看好/维持 表现仍是当前行业业绩的主导因素 东 非银行金融 行业报告 兴 证 证券：本周日均成交额环比减少约 1400亿至 0.94万亿；两融余额（3月 28 未来3-6个月行业大事： 券 日，周四）微降至1.54万亿。中证协发布证券公司2023年度经营数据。数据 无 股 显示，145家证券公司2023年度实现营业收入4059.02亿元，同比增长2.77%； 行业基本资料 占比% 份 净利润1378.33亿元，同比下降3.14%。2023年，行业进一步夯实资本实力， 有 股票家数 83 1.8% 年末总资产11.83万亿元，较2022年末增长6.96%；净资产2.95万亿元，较 限 行业市值(亿元) 53228.34 6.27% 2022年末增长5.73%；净资本2.18万亿元，较2022年末增长4.31%。2023 公 年证券行业ROE为4.67%，较2022年下降0.43个百分点。整体上看，证券 流通市值(亿元) 41210.12 6.09% 司 证 行业2023年显现出增收不增利的问题，是基于权益市场持续大幅波动的背景 行业平均市盈率 ...

公 司 研 究 康斯特（300445.SZ）：国内营收高 增，盈利能力提升 毛利率、净利率均实现提升。2023 年公司三大主营产品：数字压力检测产品 收入 36,121.76 万元，同比增长 21.8%，营业收入占比 72.49%（+0.84pct）， 毛利率 73.19%（-0.27pct）；温湿度检测产品收入 7,803.15 万元，同比增长 11.7%，营业收入占比 15.66%（-1.22pct），毛利率 55.78%（+0.32pct）；过 程信号检测产品收入 2,867.59 万元，同比增长 21.1%，营业收入占比 5.75% （+0.03pct），毛利率 71.11%（+0.33pct）。公司主要产品毛利率保持稳定，且 高毛利产品数字压力检测和过程信号产品收入高增，带动公司毛利率整体提 升。2023 年四季度（单季度）公司销售费用、管理费用、研发费用占比分别 为 23.06%、8.75%、11.15%，相比 2022 年同期下降 1.12pct、1.16pct、6.71pct。 2023 年销售净利率较 2022 年提升 2.03pct 至 20.35%。 国内市场高增长，国际市场保持韧性。国 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the strong attractiveness of high dividend yields in the current macro environment characterized by low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates, with the banking sector's dividend yield at 5.29%, which is historically high [2][4] - State-owned banks have an average dividend yield of 5.35%, exceeding the 10-year government bond yield by over 300 basis points, indicating their strong investment value in a declining interest rate environment [2][4] - The stability of dividends from state-owned banks is emphasized, with a consistent payout ratio of around 30% over the past five years, ensuring reliable returns for investors [2][4] Group 2 - The report asserts that the profitability of state-owned banks is highly stable, supported by multiple favorable factors including strong dividend appeal, low institutional positioning, and policy backing from the central government [6][4] - As of March 1, the price-to-book ratio for state-owned banks has improved to 0.59, reflecting a recovery in valuations since the low point at the end of 2022 [4][6] - The report notes that the central government's financial work conference has explicitly stated support for enhancing the strength and quality of large state-owned financial institutions, providing a favorable policy backdrop [6][4] Group 3 - The report discusses the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) as a new driving force for productivity, distinguishing it from traditional productivity by its high technological content and innovation-driven nature [8][27] - AI is increasingly recognized as a key area of global technological competition, with government policies now explicitly supporting its development, particularly in state-owned enterprises [8][27] - The report anticipates that sectors such as education, healthcare, and legal services will benefit from advancements in AI, driven by increased investment and application in these fields [27][8] Group 4 - The report indicates that the securities sector is currently experiencing a significant policy window following the recent government meetings, with a focus on wealth management and investment business performance in the recovering equity market [18][21] - The implementation of a comprehensive registration system is expected to lead to a surge in investment banking activities, presenting a long-term growth opportunity for the securities industry [18][21] - The report highlights that the current low allocation of bank stocks by domestic institutions suggests substantial room for increased investment, particularly as central financial institutions begin to inject capital into the sector [21][18]

Group 1: AI Industry Insights - The release of high-performance models like Claude 3, Sora, and Gemini 1.5 indicates a shift towards multimodal capabilities in AI, enhancing the industry's demand for data and computing power [1] - The performance of Claude 3 Opus has surpassed that of OpenAI's GPT-4 and Google's Gemini Ultra in various benchmarks, particularly in undergraduate knowledge and reasoning [1] - The AI industry is expected to see significant advancements in traditional sectors such as education, healthcare, and law, driven by the ongoing development of AI technologies [7] Group 2: Banking Sector Analysis - The profitability of state-owned banks is projected to remain stable, with expectations of steady profit growth in 2024, supported by rapid loan growth and easing pressure on interest margins [16][23] - The current dividend yield for the banking sector stands at 5.29%, making it an attractive option for high-dividend investment strategies [10] - Institutional investment in the banking sector is currently low, indicating potential for increased allocations as market conditions stabilize [11][23] Group 3: Economic and Policy Context - The government has emphasized the importance of developing a modern industrial system, with a focus on AI and big data as key drivers of economic growth [15][17] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates, which enhances the appeal of high-dividend investments [10] - The ongoing recovery of the economy is expected to boost consumer demand, particularly in the food and beverage sector, as policies aimed at increasing income and consumption take effect [32][33]

公 司 研 究 安迪苏（600299.SH）：业绩短期承 2024年3月29日 强烈推荐/维持 压，产能持续扩张巩固龙头地位 东 安迪苏 公司报告 兴 证 券 安迪苏发布2023年年报：全年实现营业收入为131.84亿元，YoY-9.26%，归 公司简介： 股 母净利润为0.52亿元，YoY-95.82%，EPS为0.02元。公司拟每10股派发现 安迪苏于 2006 年被中国蓝星集团收购，于 份 金红利0.6元（含税）。 2015 年借壳蓝星集团旗下的蓝星新材在 A 有 股上市。公司是全球第二大蛋氨酸生产商， 限 受到产品销售价格下滑，以及原材料、能源成本上升的双重挤压，公司业绩下 可同时提供固体蛋氨酸和液体蛋氨酸，是动 公 滑。从收入端看，2023年公司主要产品蛋氨酸市场均价同比2022年有所下滑， 物营养与健康行业的全球领军企业。 资料来源：公司公告、东兴证券研究所 司 导致公司营收小幅下滑。从利润端看，公司毛利率受到产品价格下滑的影响同 交易数据 比下滑7个百分点至21%，同时也受到资产减值和相关重组成本的影响（其中 证 券 主要由于 Commentry 固体蛋氨酸生产线，Innov’ia 的老旧工厂以 ...

宏观：美国通胀仍有粘性，降息窗口较窄 我们关于降息节奏的观点逐步得到印证：即最早不会早于 5 月。维持若要避免后期过早衰退，停留在 5.25% 上方的时间不宜过长的观点。关于降息节点，1、2 月非农和通胀均较强，一季度降息可能不大已被市场接受， 目前市场预期首次降息为 6 月。无论劳动力市场还是房地产市场，虽有所缓和但仍处于紧绷状态，叠加拜登政 府推出的基建法案，建筑业也进入相对繁荣期，过早降息可能会引起后期通胀反弹。降息时间节点可以参考核 心 CPI 环比跌落当前 0.3%这一平台的时间点，比如连续 2 个月不高于 0.2%。 关于降息幅度：首先考虑降息 50bp，更多降息需后续数据支持。近期鲍威尔表示降息临近，认为目前的政策 利率水平明显高于中性利率水平。我们在 2020 年疫情开始时就提出，随着地产周期复苏，中性利率可能有所 抬升，即目前的政策利率水平虽处于限制性区域，但可能离中性利率并不太远。鉴于地产市场已摆脱 08 年次 贷危机阴影，恢复了对利率的敏感度，当前地产市场处于紧平衡状态，而非疲软。这意味着也不能快速降息太 多，目前市场对降息幅度预期过于乐观。当经济特别是地产开始恢复对利率的敏感度时，降息 ...

首 席 观 点 康明怡 | 东兴证券宏观分析师 S1480519090001，021-25102911，kangmy@dxzq.net.cn 基本面方面，GDP 和失业率均不支持降息，降息的唯一动力来自通胀。2 月 CPI 同比 3.2%， 已有 9 个月落入 2~3.8%这一历史正常区间，2 月通胀虽略超预期，但并未打破下降趋势。若 往后环比不超过 0.3%，则同比将稳定在这一区间内，可以小幅降息。核心 CPI 类似，但尚未 落回历史正常区间，核心 CPI 一般略滞后于 CPI，还需耐心等待。若通胀控制得当，根据 2000~2006 年的经验，最终可以尝试降息到 3.25~3.5%附近，但首轮降息我们仍暂时先看 50bp。 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 首席周观点：2024 年第 13 周2024 年 3 月 29 日 首席观点 周度观点 点阵图有边际改变。鲍威尔发言基本延续去年 12 月的基调，认为通胀正在逐渐下降，近 2 个月的数据没有改变他对通胀的看法。市场对本次 FOMC 会议以及鲍威尔发言解读为偏鸽。 从点阵图来看，虽继续保持年内降息 75bp 的中位数，但反映出 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [2][4]. Core Insights - Oil prices continue to rise, with Brent and WTI crude futures prices increasing by 3.52% and 4.31% respectively as of March 20, with Brent at $85.95 per barrel and WTI at $81.27 per barrel [2][4]. - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have increased by 1.30% month-on-month, reaching 4214 RMB per ton [2][36]. - The report highlights a decrease in U.S. refinery crude oil production, while the supply of petroleum products has increased [3][18]. Supply and Demand - As of March 20, U.S. refinery crude oil production was 14.91 million barrels per day, down 6.29% month-on-month [18]. - China's natural gas cumulative production increased by 2.10% month-on-month, totaling 452,200 tons [42]. - OPEC crude oil production slightly increased by 0.77% month-on-month, reaching 26,571 thousand barrels per day [16]. Prices - Brent crude spot price rose by 6.12% month-on-month, reaching $87.38 per barrel, while WTI spot price increased by 7.39% to $82.73 per barrel [7][10]. - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices increased by 1.30% month-on-month, while U.S. NYMEX natural gas futures prices decreased by 4.71% [36][38]. Inventory - As of March 15, U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories decreased by 1.05% month-on-month, totaling 1,574,253 thousand barrels [27]. - U.S. natural gas inventory decreased by 2.59% month-on-month, totaling 112,515 thousand barrels [44]. - European natural gas inventory decreased by 8.15% month-on-month, totaling 676.65 TWh [44]. Imports and Exports - U.S. crude oil imports decreased by 1.01% month-on-month, totaling 6,344 thousand barrels per day [31]. - European natural gas cumulative imports increased by 7.26% month-on-month, totaling 18,073 million cubic meters [48].

Group 1 - The insurance sector is expected to see an overall increase in demand due to enhanced consumer awareness, recovery in consumption trends, and a growing need for asset preservation [2] - The downtrend in deposit rates is likely to highlight the comparative advantages of savings-type insurance products, potentially leading to a small peak in sales [2] - The collaboration between life and property insurance is anticipated to drive steady recovery in the operational performance and valuation of insurance companies in 2024 [2] Group 2 - The corporate deposits decreased by 2.99 trillion yuan in February, while household deposits increased by 3.2 trillion yuan, indicating a seasonal effect related to the Spring Festival [3] - The M1 growth rate returned to a low level of 1.2% year-on-year, reflecting insufficient liquidity and weak corporate investment intentions [3] Group 3 - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable profit growth in 2024, supported by the rapid growth of loans and the release of policy dividends on the liability side [16][20] - The average dividend yield for state-owned banks is currently at 5.35%, which is significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield, enhancing their attractiveness for investment [41] - The valuation of state-owned banks has seen a recovery, with the price-to-book ratio increasing to 0.59 times as of March 1, 2024, compared to the low point at the end of 2022 [20] Group 4 - The social financing growth rate has decreased, with a total of 8.06 trillion yuan added in the first two months, which is 1.1 trillion yuan less than the previous year [10] - The weak demand for credit and slow issuance of government bonds are contributing factors to the decline in social financing growth [10] Group 5 - The artificial intelligence sector is expected to become a significant driver of new productive forces, with government policies increasingly supporting its development [26][30] - The release of high-performance models like Claude 3 indicates a trend towards multi-modal capabilities, which may reshape the competitive landscape in the AI industry [28][30] Group 6 - The food and beverage industry is projected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery and increased consumer spending, particularly in cyclical segments like liquor [62][86] - The government's focus on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing consumption is expected to further stimulate growth in the food and beverage sector [62][86]