Core Conclusions - The 2026 automotive industry investment strategy emphasizes "breaking old and establishing new," suggesting that the industry is at a crossroads similar to 2011 and 2018, with the end of the electric vehicle (EV) boom and the rise of smart technology [2][3] - The report predicts a total domestic demand of 22 million vehicles in 2026, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales expected to reach 13.2 million, an increase of 6.4% [2][10] - The commercial vehicle sector is expected to see a wholesale volume of 1.16 million units in 2026, with a slight increase of 1.5% year-on-year, while the bus sector is projected to maintain strong export growth [2][19] Passenger Vehicle Sector - The passenger vehicle sector is projected to experience a total sales volume of 22 million units in 2026, with NEV sales expected to reach 13.2 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [2][10] - The report highlights the impact of a 5% purchase tax on NEVs starting January 1, 2026, which is expected to support domestic demand [10] - Key investment opportunities include BYD and Jianghuai Automobile in the passenger vehicle sector [2][3] Commercial Vehicle Sector - The heavy truck segment is forecasted to have a wholesale volume of 1.16 million units in 2026, with domestic sales expected to decline by 5.5% to 770,000 units, while exports are projected to grow by 18.8% [2][15] - The bus sector is expected to see a total domestic sales volume of 81,000 units, with exports anticipated to grow by over 30% [2][19] Motorcycle Sector - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 14%, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [2][22] - Domestic sales of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to reach 430,000 units, while exports are projected to grow significantly [22] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies key investment opportunities across various segments, including Yutong Bus and King Long in the bus sector, and Spring Power and Longxin General in the motorcycle sector [2][3] - The focus on L4 RoboX investment opportunities highlights the importance of software over hardware in the autonomous driving sector, with recommended stocks including XPeng Motors and Horizon Robotics [2][3] Growth Trends - The report anticipates a continued focus on smart technology and robotics, with significant growth expected in the L4 RoboX industry and AIDC (Automated Identification and Data Capture) sectors [2][3] - The penetration rate of smart driving technology in new energy vehicles is expected to reach 40% by 2026, with a notable shift in chip supplier market shares [13][14]

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·机械设备 机械设备行业点评报告 西门子海南总装基地落地，协同国产零部件 扩产缓解燃机交付压力 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 投资建议： 推荐高额燃机订单持续落地【杰瑞股份】、聚焦高技术壁垒透平叶片 国产替代【应流股份】、燃机缸体与环类主力供应商【豪迈科技】、卡特 彼勒供应商【联德股份】。 ◼ 风险提示： AI 投资不及预期、国际贸易摩擦、国产替代不及预期。 ◼ 事件：西门子新基地落地海南，完善燃机一体化流程 2025/12/18 官方公众号公布西门子能源在儋州设立海南公司，公司预 计于 2027 年实现其首个中国燃机总装基地及服务中心建成投运，形成覆 盖总装、应用验证、备件、运维的一体化体系，完善公司全球燃机布局。 海南自贸港全岛封关落地，通关及贸易投资便利度显著提升，具备为高端 装备制造、工程建设提供稳定环境的条件。西门子新基地将支撑海南清洁 能源岛建设，并依托本土供应链与制造能力，在燃机领域缩短交付周期、 提升项目效率，抬升海南全球能源产业链地位。 ◼ 燃机龙头产能饱和，总装&零部件扩产有望缓解交付瓶颈 燃气轮机行业核心利润 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Minth Group [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a global leader in automotive exterior and structural components, focusing on electric vehicle (EV) battery boxes and expanding into humanoid robotics and liquid cooling technologies, which are expected to drive future growth [8][13]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Minth Group is a globally recognized supplier of automotive exterior and structural components, with a product system based on various new materials and surface treatment technologies. The company has established four major product lines and is heavily investing in the electric vehicle sector, becoming the largest supplier of battery boxes and structural components [8][13]. Battery Box Business Development - The battery box is a critical component for electric vehicle battery modules, and its market is expected to grow significantly as EV penetration increases. The report estimates that the Chinese battery box market will reach 31.8 billion yuan in 2024 and 78.2 billion yuan by 2030, while the European market is projected to grow from 9.4 billion yuan in 2024 to 29.9 billion yuan by 2030 [8][45][47]. Robotics and Liquid Cooling - Minth is leveraging its automotive manufacturing expertise to enter the humanoid robotics sector, focusing on integrated joint modules and other robotic components. Additionally, the company is making strides in the AI liquid cooling market, driven by increasing energy efficiency requirements and partnerships with leading server manufacturers [8][18]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.75 billion yuan, 3.26 billion yuan, and 3.88 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.34 yuan, 2.76 yuan, and 3.29 yuan for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11.91, 10.07, and 8.46 [1][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The establishment of Vertiv's East China R&D and manufacturing base in Suzhou signifies a rapid increase in global demand for cooling solutions in computing power, particularly driven by the growth in AI computing [1] - The rise in server power density has transformed liquid cooling from an optional solution to a necessity, with projections indicating that the computing server market could exceed 100 billion by 2026-2027 [2] - Vertiv's expansion aims to overcome current capacity bottlenecks, leveraging the robust supply chain in the Yangtze River Delta region, which is home to numerous suppliers of critical components [3] Summary by Sections Industry Potential - The establishment of Vertiv's manufacturing base indicates a significant uptick in demand for liquid cooling solutions, particularly in the context of AI computing [1] Market Dynamics - The liquid cooling market is expected to see substantial growth, with leading companies like Vertiv demonstrating confidence in the long-term prospects of this sector [2] - The introduction of more suppliers into the NV open RVL list and the maturation of the ASIC server supply chain present opportunities for domestic liquid cooling suppliers to gain market share [2] Company Expansion - Vertiv's expansion is a strategic move to address capacity constraints and enhance its competitive edge by integrating local suppliers into its supply chain [3] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Vertiv as a leading thermal control provider with strong North American client progress - Hongsheng Co., specializing in plate-fin heat exchangers - Neway Valve, a leader in the valve sector - Additional companies to watch include Feilong Co., Kexin New Source, Yidong Electronics, and Feirongda [4]

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that export control measures on key metals have become a crucial advantage for China in the context of major power competition, particularly against the US and EU [10][11] - China's leading position in key metals is attributed not only to resource advantages but also to a complete industrial system that is difficult for developed economies to replicate [10][11] Fixed Income - The report indicates that the bond market is expected to face challenges in 2026, with less likelihood of a unilateral decline in interest rates as seen from 2022 to 2024, suggesting a need for a more flexible approach to bond trading [12][13] - Recent meetings have emphasized a continuation of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, which are expected to influence bond market sentiment positively [12][13] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the merger of CICC with Dongxing and Xinda, which is expected to create a company with total assets exceeding one trillion yuan, ranking fourth in the industry [21][23] - The merger is seen as a strategic move to enhance scale and comprehensive strength in the securities industry, with large brokers expected to fill gaps through acquisitions while smaller brokers may achieve rapid growth through external mergers [21][23] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends investing in StarRing Technology, which is positioned as a leader in AI and big data infrastructure, with expected revenues of 426 million, 488 million, and 583 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [23][24] - The company is noted for its innovative GPU-Native database, which is anticipated to benefit significantly from the growing demand for AI inference [23][24]

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that export control measures on key metals have become a crucial advantage for China in the geopolitical competition with major economies like the US and EU. This advantage is rooted in China's resource superiority and a complete industrial system that is difficult for developed economies to replicate in the short term [10][11]. - China leads in the production of 30 out of 44 key minerals, with significant advantages in rare earths, gallium, germanium, and antimony. For instance, China holds nearly half of the world's rare earth reserves and dominates the processing technology, with a 92% global market share in high-performance neodymium-iron-boron magnets [10][11]. Fixed Income - The report indicates that the bond market is influenced by recent important meetings, with a shift in sentiment following the Central Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conference. The 10-year government bond yield rose from 1.8285% to 1.8425% during the week, reflecting market reactions to policy expectations [12][13]. - The issuance of green bonds saw a significant increase, with 29 new bonds issued totaling approximately 36.75 billion yuan, up 16.01 billion yuan from the previous week. The secondary market saw a total transaction volume of 64.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7 billion yuan [16]. Industry - The automotive industry is at a pivotal point in 2025, with expectations for electric vehicle penetration to reach 50%-80% over the next three years. Major players in intelligent driving have successfully implemented complex scenarios in urban environments, enhancing user experience [21]. - The report evaluates the intelligent driving experiences of seven major manufacturers, noting that Huawei and Xiaopeng lead in handling complex scenarios, while the gap in capabilities among manufacturers is narrowing compared to earlier quarters [21].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific investment recommendations for individual companies or suppliers in the smart driving sector [2][5][7]. Core Insights - 2025 marks a pivotal year for automotive intelligence, initiating a three-year cycle that will elevate the domestic electrification penetration rate to 50%-80%+ [2]. - Leading smart driving manufacturers have successfully implemented urban NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) experiences, enhancing complex scenario handling and passenger experience [2]. - The report evaluates the smart driving experiences of seven manufacturers through both large sample and small sample road tests, focusing on various dimensions such as scenario implementation and comfort [2][4]. - The performance gap among manufacturers is narrowing, with second-tier manufacturers improving their capabilities significantly compared to Q1 [2]. Summary by Sections Road Test Overview - The report includes both large sample concentrated road tests and small sample in-depth road tests to assess the smart driving capabilities of various models [4][28]. - The concentrated road test was conducted on a fixed route in Shenzhen, covering complex scenarios such as narrow passages and busy intersections [31][67]. Performance Evaluation - The average takeover frequency across the tests was noted, with specific scores assigned to each vehicle based on their performance in various driving scenarios [36][37]. - The report highlights that the Wanjie M7 achieved the highest overall evaluation score, with an average takeover frequency of 0.47, indicating excellent smart driving performance [36][37]. - The performance of the Wei brand Lanshan and Xiaopeng models was also noted, with average takeover frequencies of 1.83 and 2.40, respectively, showcasing their capabilities in complex scenarios [40][42]. Model-Specific Insights - The report details the specific smart driving versions tested, including Huawei ADS 4.0, Xiaopeng XOS 5.7.8, and others, along with their respective performance metrics [12][14][18][19]. - Each model's strengths and weaknesses in handling various driving scenarios were analyzed, with particular attention to their ability to manage complex urban environments [2][67]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the advancements in smart driving technology will continue to evolve, with manufacturers focusing on enhancing their systems to better handle complex driving conditions [2][22].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in AI and big data infrastructure software in China, with a strategic shift from being a digital infrastructure provider to an AI infrastructure enterprise [8][13]. - The emergence of GPU-native databases is driven by the need for new storage architectures that cater to AI inference demands, which require high concurrency and low-latency data access [8][47]. - The company has been recognized as a leader in the generative AI data infrastructure sector by IDC, highlighting its strong market position and technological advancements [8][65]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company operates in three business lines: AI and big data foundational software, solutions, and other services, serving over 1,600 end users across various industries [8][13]. - The company has a strong customer base in finance and digital government sectors, with significant growth in orders from these areas [8][29]. 2. Financial Performance - For 2023, the company reported total revenue of 490.81 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 31.72%. However, it is projected to face a decline in 2024 with revenues of 371.49 million yuan, a decrease of 24.31% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to improve from a loss of 343.46 million yuan in 2024 to a loss of 212.61 million yuan in 2025, indicating a narrowing of losses [1][29]. 3. Technological Advancements - The report emphasizes the transition from CPU-centric architectures to GPU-centric architectures, which is essential for meeting the demands of AI inference workloads [8][47][56]. - The company has developed GPU-native database products, positioning itself to capitalize on the growing market for AI-driven data solutions [8][60]. 4. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is actively pursuing international expansion, with plans for a dual listing in Hong Kong to enhance its market presence [8][65]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 4.26 billion yuan, 4.88 billion yuan, and 5.83 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [1][8].

Group 1: Key Metals Overview - China has strengthened export controls on key metals, becoming a crucial bargaining chip in geopolitical tensions with the US and EU amid rising global trade uncertainties[1] - The US Geological Survey (USGS) 2024 data indicates that China leads in 30 out of 44 key minerals, highlighting its dominant position in the global supply chain[1] - China's rare earth reserves account for approximately 48% of global totals, with the US holding only 4.3%[8] Group 2: Specific Metals and Their Importance - China's production of rare earths is projected to reach 270,000 tons in 2024, representing about 69.2% of global output[8] - China holds around 68% of the world's gallium reserves, with a production capacity that significantly influences global technology sectors, including semiconductors and AI chips[15] - In 2024, China's antimony reserves are estimated at 670,000 tons, making up about 29.7% of global reserves, while its production is expected to be around 60% of the global total[22] Group 3: Strategic Advantages and Implications - China's comprehensive industrial system, which includes talent, technology, and advanced production capabilities, underpins its leading position in key metals[26] - The monopolistic control over processing technologies for key metals allows China to significantly influence global technological development paths[26] - The strategic value of key metals is expected to increase with the growth of new energy and AI industries, necessitating continued innovation and international cooperation from China[27] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Potential changes in export control measures for key metals could exceed expectations, impacting global supply chains[28] - Increased geopolitical complexities may disrupt the supply of key metals, posing risks to China's industrial recovery[28] - The pace of economic policy implementation may fall short of expectations, affecting industrial production in China[28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [59]. Core Views - November sales data shows that domestic sales met expectations, while wholesale and export figures exceeded expectations [4][10]. - The overall industry performance in November indicates a positive trend, with significant year-on-year growth in production, wholesale, terminal sales, and exports [6][17]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In November, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 113,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of 65.4% and 6.6%, respectively, surpassing expectations [2][17]. - Terminal sales for November were 77,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% and a month-on-month increase of 9.6%, aligning with expectations [2][14]. - Export sales for November totaled 33,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 44.0% and a slight month-on-month increase of 0.7%, exceeding expectations [2][17]. Market Structure - The market share of major manufacturers in terminal sales for November was as follows: Jiefang (21.1%), Dongfeng (18.0%), Heavy Truck (16.9%), Shaanxi Heavy Truck (11.0%), and Foton (12.4%) [5][34]. - In exports, the market share for November was: Jiefang (21.2%), Dongfeng (9.3%), Heavy Truck (45.2%), Shaanxi Heavy Truck (16.2%), and Foton (5.7%) [5][36]. - The engine market share in November was led by Weichai (17.4%), followed by Cummins (15.6%) and Xichai (14.6%) [7][45]. Inventory Analysis - The total industry inventory in November increased by 0.42 million units, with a total inventory coefficient of 1.8, indicating a reasonable level [18][44]. - Channel inventory saw an increase of 0.34 million units, while enterprise inventory rose by 0.08 million units [18][44]. Structural Insights - In terms of vehicle usage, November saw better performance in engineering vehicles compared to logistics vehicles, with terminal sales of engineering vehicles at 8,500 units, up 41.2% year-on-year [23]. - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks reached 25.3% in November, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.38 percentage points [26].