Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on solid-state battery equipment suppliers such as **XianDao Intelligent**, **LianYing Laser**, and **HangKe Technology**. It also suggests paying attention to companies involved in dry/wet electrode equipment and dry electrode & module PACK [2][8]. Core Insights - The front-end manufacturing process is crucial in lithium battery production, directly impacting battery performance and production line stability. The process includes the formation of positive and negative electrode sheets and solid electrolyte membranes, which are essential for energy density, rate performance, and cycle life [2][5][7]. - Solid-state batteries require the preparation of solid electrolyte membranes in addition to traditional electrode sheets, increasing the complexity and criticality of the manufacturing process [7][15]. - The solid-state battery front-end manufacturing process can be divided into dry and wet methods, with dry methods gradually becoming the mainstream due to their cost, process, and material compatibility advantages [2][12][15]. - Various dry film formation technologies exist, including fiberization, dry spray deposition, gas phase deposition, thermal extrusion, direct pressing, and 3D printing, each suitable for different applications [2][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Manufacturing Processes - The preparation of electrode sheets and electrolyte membranes is critical, directly influencing battery performance and mass production outcomes [5][11]. - The film formation process can be categorized into dry and wet methods, with dry methods being the future of high-performance solid-state batteries [11][12]. - Dry film formation paths are diverse, with fiberization seen as a promising route for future mass production [11][18]. 2. Market Potential - The market for front-end solid-state battery equipment is expected to reach **8 billion yuan** by 2029, driven by the anticipated increase in global solid-state battery capacity from **17 GWh** in 2024 to **200 GWh** in 2029 [8][9]. 3. Dry vs. Wet Process Advantages - Dry processes eliminate solvent use and drying steps, leading to lower energy consumption and manufacturing costs, while enhancing material utilization and environmental friendliness [15][18]. - Dry processes exhibit superior structural stability, allowing for higher packing densities and energy densities compared to wet processes [18][34]. 4. Solid Electrolyte Materials - Solid electrolyte materials are categorized into oxides, sulfides, polymers, and halides, with sulfides currently being the mainstream technology due to their high conductivity and processing performance [21][22]. 5. Future Developments - The evolution of solid-state batteries will involve the introduction of high-performance anodes and cathodes, with dry processes increasingly demonstrating compatibility advantages [26][30].

Core Views - The steel industry is expected to face oversupply issues in 2026, with prices likely to remain volatile [4][49] - The trend of "anti-involution" continues, with supply-side reforms expected to constrain crude steel production by 5%-10% [3][4] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply remains robust, with iron water production at a high level; as of November 2025, the average daily iron water output was 2.38 million tons, up 3.7% year-on-year [3][8] - Steel production is projected to decline slightly in 2025, with a cumulative crude steel output of 820 million tons, down 4% year-on-year [3][15] - Demand for steel is expected to see a slight increase in 2025, driven by plate steel, while long steel products face challenges; total apparent steel consumption reached 930 million tons, up 5% year-on-year [3][22] Price Trends - Steel prices are anticipated to decline in 2025, with an expected range of 3000-3500 RMB/ton; the price is projected to stabilize in 2026 [3][4] - The decline in coking coal prices is expected to contribute to lower steel prices, with iron ore prices also having room to decrease [3][4] Profitability Outlook - The steel industry is expected to maintain profitability in 2025 due to declining costs, with average gross margins at their best levels from 2021 to 2025 [3][4] - The anticipated recovery in rebar prices to around 3500 RMB/ton could lead to an increase in profitability by 50-100 RMB/ton [3][4] Investment Strategy - Focus on product structure transformation and high-growth segments; recommended companies include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [3][4] - Investment lines for 2026 include stable profits from leading steel companies and opportunities in downstream sectors with strong profitability [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in precision casting, benefiting from the dual drivers of AI computing power in cooling and power supply sectors. It has established long-term partnerships with global giants and is poised for significant growth due to expanding demand in the AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) market [8][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is recognized as a global leader in commercial air conditioning compressor castings and a prominent player in engineering machinery castings, with strong ties to major clients like Johnson Controls and Caterpillar [8][14]. - The company has a high degree of customer binding, with over 10 years of collaboration with top-tier clients, which enhances its competitive edge [14][21]. 2. Financial Performance - The company has shown a stable growth trend, with a CAGR of 12.7% in revenue and 13.3% in net profit from 2016 to 2024. However, a decline was noted in 2024 due to reduced demand in the commercial air conditioning sector [23][24]. - The revenue forecast for 2023A is 1,211 million yuan, with a projected increase to 2,164 million yuan by 2027E, reflecting a growth rate of 33.80% [1]. 3. Business Segments - The primary revenue source is from compressor components, accounting for over 60% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 38% in 2024. Engineering machinery components are also growing, with their revenue share increasing from 2% in 2016 to 31% in 2024 [25][26]. - The company is expanding its footprint in the AIDC sector, particularly in cooling and power supply, which is expected to drive future growth [8][36]. 4. Market Opportunities - The AIDC market is projected to grow significantly, with the U.S. AIDC cooling component market expected to exceed 10 billion yuan by 2028. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [8][37]. - The engineering machinery sector is anticipated to recover starting in 2025, benefiting the company due to its strong relationship with Caterpillar [8][36]. 5. Competitive Advantages - The company's integrated "casting + machining" capabilities provide a competitive edge, allowing for high product customization and superior profit margins compared to peers [8][36]. - The company has initiated a stock incentive plan to align the interests of key personnel with the company's long-term growth objectives [8][36].

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the main theme of China's economy in 2025 is to respond to changes, influenced by external factors such as fluctuating tariffs and internal factors like asset revaluation and investment trends [1][4] - For 2026, the focus will be on continuity and adaptation, with five key areas of transition: policy support, AI-driven supply, consumption upgrades, wealth recovery, and price stability [1][4] - Economic growth is projected at around 4.9%, with consumption and export growth slightly declining while investment growth is expected to improve [1][4] Fixed Income and Equity Analysis - The report discusses the issuance of Maolai Convertible Bonds, with a total issuance scale of 563 million yuan, aimed at funding precision optical production and R&D projects [5][6] - The expected listing price range for Maolai Convertible Bonds is between 129.60 and 143.56 yuan, with a low conversion premium of approximately 4.04% [5][6] - The financial performance of Maolai Optical shows a compound annual growth rate of 17.78% from 2019 to 2024, with revenue fluctuations and a projected revenue of 503 million yuan in 2024 [6] Company-Specific Insights - Hengyin Technology is highlighted as a leader in banking smart terminals, with a focus on blockchain technology to empower digital currency [7][8] - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 500 million yuan in 2025 to 800 million yuan in 2027, with a target price of 14.4 yuan for 2026 based on a 12x price-to-sales ratio [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of digital RMB and blockchain technology as key drivers for future growth, with a significant increase in overseas revenue expected [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Hengyin Technology (603106) for the first time [1]. Core Views - Hengyin Technology is a leader in banking intelligent terminals and is continuously expanding its blockchain capabilities to empower digital currency [1]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth recovery starting in 2024, with significant contributions from overseas markets and the digital renminbi [8][20]. - The strategic focus includes transitioning from hardware provider to software and service provider, enhancing its international presence, and leveraging AI in financial services [41]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - Hengyin Technology specializes in the research, production, and sales of financial intelligent terminals, providing comprehensive products and services to major banks [13]. - The company has developed core technologies for cash handling modules and holds numerous patents, positioning itself as a leading smart banking solution provider in China [13]. 2. Financial Performance - The company is projected to recover revenue growth in 2024, with a forecasted total revenue of 4.37 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 8.04 billion yuan by 2027 [1]. - The gross margin is expected to improve due to product structure optimization and cost control measures [16]. - The net profit is anticipated to turn positive in 2024, with a significant increase in profitability expected in the following years [16]. 3. Digital Currency and Blockchain - The digital renminbi is positioned as a transformative force in the payment landscape, with the central bank emphasizing its infrastructure development in the latest five-year plan [22]. - Blockchain technology is highlighted as a new generation of digital infrastructure, providing decentralized management and data integrity [37]. 4. Strategic Initiatives - The company has outlined a development strategy focusing on four transformations: expanding from domestic to global markets, diversifying application scenarios, enhancing product offerings, and transitioning to a service-oriented business model [41]. - Hengyin Technology aims to leverage AI and blockchain to enhance its product offerings and improve customer interactions [43][44]. 5. Valuation and Profit Forecast - The report forecasts revenue growth for Hengyin Technology, estimating revenues of 5.04 billion yuan in 2025, 6.25 billion yuan in 2026, and 8.04 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 15.3%, 24.0%, and 28.6% respectively [49]. - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of around 27.4% to 30.1% during this period [49].

Economic Outlook - The main theme for China's economy in 2025 is responding to changes, influenced by fluctuating external tariffs and internal asset revaluation, leading to unexpected volatility in wealth, supply, and investment[1] - For 2026, the focus shifts to continuity, with reduced uncertainty in macro changes and increased visibility in economic policies, emphasizing five key areas of transition[1] Key Areas of Transition - Policy continuity under the 14th Five-Year Plan, maintaining a proactive fiscal stance, with potential mid-year adjustments[1] - Supply-side focus on AI, transitioning from old to new economic drivers, with a shift in physical demand for new momentum[1] - Consumer incentives for upgrading, with ongoing subsidies and questions about the expansion of service consumption subsidies[1] - Wealth recovery through asset-liability management, with a slow bull market in stocks and a narrowing decline in real estate[1] - Price stability with improved inflation outlook, though short-term supply-demand imbalances persist, expecting CPI growth of 0.5% and PPI decline narrowing from -2.5% to -0.9%[1] Economic Growth Projections - Anticipated GDP growth for 2026 is approximately 4.9%, with consumption and export growth slightly declining compared to 2025, while investment growth is expected to rebound[1][11] - Fiscal policy is projected to remain supportive, with a deficit rate stable at around 4% and an increase in the deficit scale from CNY 5.66 trillion in 2025 to CNY 5.94 trillion in 2026[19][25] Risks and Challenges - High uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policies could significantly impact China's exports and domestic economic conditions[1] - Domestic macroeconomic policy uncertainties may lead to unexpected changes, particularly in the real estate market influenced by sentiment and consensus expectations[1]

证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 何婷 执业证书：S0600524120009 证券研究报告·行业点评报告·非银金融 非银金融行业点评报告 中金公司拟换股合并东兴证券、信达证券， 资产规模将破万亿元 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 11 月 20 日 heting@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 2024/11/20 2025/3/21 2025/7/20 2025/11/18 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究 《金融科技 2026 年投资策略-- 短期 看市场活跃的持续性，中期关注金融 IT》 2025-11-17 《险资 Q3 核心权益资产规模大幅提 升；市场成交量环比小幅下滑》 2025-11-16 东吴证券研究所 1 / 2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 在法律许可的情况下，东吴证券及其所属关联机构可能会持有报告中提到的公司所发行 的证券并进行交易，还可能为这些公司提供投资银行服务或其他 ...

Macro Strategy - The report anticipates that the monetary policy in 2026 will continue to be supportive, with potential for 1-2 rate cuts and 1-2 reserve requirement ratio reductions [1][9][10] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.70%-2.0%, while the 30-year yield may range from 1.90%-2.30% [1][9] Fixed Income - The report outlines key valuation indicators for urban investment public REITs, including operational indicators like current revenue and distributable amount, valuation indicators such as expected REITs dividend rate and P/FFO multiples, liquidity indicators like daily turnover rate, and price indicators like daily price fluctuation [2][12] - Recommended REITs include Zhejiang Merchants Hu-Hang-Ning REIT and Zhongjin Anhui Traffic Control REIT in transportation infrastructure, Zhongjin Hubei Science and Technology REIT and E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT in park infrastructure, and Guotai Junan City Investment Wide Court Rental Housing REIT in affordable rental housing [2][12] Industry - The 2025 Double Eleven sales totaled approximately 16,950 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.2%, with comprehensive e-commerce platforms achieving 16,191 billion yuan, up 12.3% [3][14] - Instant retail showed remarkable growth, with sales reaching 670 billion yuan during Double Eleven, marking a 138% increase year-on-year [3][14] - The report suggests that the extended sales period significantly contributed to the overall growth, and highlights the importance of focusing on fast-growing sectors like pet products [3][14] Coal Industry - The coal price is expected to fluctuate in a weak equilibrium state in 2026, with a reasonable price expectation around 770 yuan/ton [4][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of energy security and suggests focusing on companies like Guanghui Energy and Haohua Energy, which are expected to benefit from increased production and price elasticity [4][15] - High dividend logic is highlighted, with expectations that the dividend yield for China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal will decrease from around 4.5% in 2025 to approximately 3.5% by mid-2026 [4][15] Company Analysis - Xiaomi Group reported a Q3 revenue of 1131.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, with a net profit of 113.1 billion yuan, up 80.9% [6][18] - The automotive segment achieved profitability for the first time, with a revenue of 290.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 199.2% increase year-on-year [6][18] - Xpeng Motors reported a Q3 revenue of 203.8 billion yuan, a 101.8% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 3.8 billion yuan, which is an improvement from the previous quarter [8][22] - Canadian Solar (CSIQ) expects Q4 sales between 13 billion to 15 billion USD, with a significant increase in storage shipments projected for 2026 [7][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 113.12 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.4% [7] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 11.31 billion yuan, up 80.9% year-on-year and 4.4% quarter-on-quarter [7] - The automotive segment turned profitable for the first time, with revenue from automotive and AI-related businesses reaching 29.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 199.2% [7] - High-end smartphone sales showed strong performance, with Q3 2025 smartphone revenue at 45.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0% [7] - The IoT segment generated revenue of 27.55 billion yuan, up 5.6% year-on-year, although it saw a quarter-on-quarter decline of 28.8% [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 270.97 billion yuan, 365.91 billion yuan, 474.58 billion yuan, 591.85 billion yuan, and 669.07 billion yuan respectively [1] - Net profit projections for the same years are 17.48 billion yuan, 23.66 billion yuan, 45.32 billion yuan, 52.96 billion yuan, and 65.61 billion yuan respectively [1] - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 45.3 billion yuan, 53.0 billion yuan, and 65.6 billion yuan, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's performance [7] Market Position - The company has expanded its automotive sales network to 402 stores and 209 service points, covering 119 and 125 cities respectively [7] - The market share for smartphones priced above 3,000 yuan in mainland China increased by 4.1 percentage points to 24.1% [7] - The report highlights the company's ongoing efforts in high-end product development, with the new Xiaomi 17 series achieving a 30% increase in sales compared to the previous generation [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company, CSIQ, has a strong order backlog and expects a doubling of energy storage shipments in 2026 [1] - The company anticipates Q4 2025 sales between $1.3 billion and $1.5 billion, with a gross margin of 14%-16% [8] - CSIQ's energy storage orders as of October 31, 2025, amount to $3.1 billion, reflecting a growth of approximately $100 million since June 30, 2025 [8] - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in energy storage shipments, projecting 14GWh-17GWh for 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 73%-115% [8] - The report indicates a slight increase in expense ratios but a significant improvement in cash flow, with operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 5.47 billion yuan, a 120.9% increase year-on-year [8] - The profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted downwards to 1.5 billion yuan due to slower-than-expected global photovoltaic demand recovery, while the profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised to 3.24 billion yuan and 4.27 billion yuan, respectively [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 51.31 billion yuan - 2024: 46.17 billion yuan - 2025: 42.39 billion yuan - 2026: 50.42 billion yuan - 2027: 58.72 billion yuan [1] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 2.90 billion yuan - 2024: 2.25 billion yuan - 2025: 1.50 billion yuan - 2026: 3.24 billion yuan - 2027: 4.27 billion yuan [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023: 0.79 yuan - 2024: 0.61 yuan - 2025: 0.41 yuan - 2026: 0.88 yuan - 2027: 1.16 yuan [1]