Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company plans to raise funds through the placement of H shares and the issuance of convertible bonds to expand its international business [8] - The capital market reform is continuously optimizing, and the macroeconomic recovery is gradually boosting market investment enthusiasm [8] - The company is expected to benefit from favorable policy environments for the securities industry, with a projected increase in net profit for 2025-2027 [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 23,300 million in 2023, increasing to 44,134 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.36% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 6,978 million in 2023 to 19,645 million in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 14.53% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 0.92 in 2023 to 2.58 in 2027 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 23.16 yuan, with a market capitalization of 176,151.38 million [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 25.30 in 2023 to 8.98 in 2027 [1] Business Strategy - The funds raised will be used to enhance the capital strength and risk resistance of overseas subsidiaries, supporting the company's international business development [8] - The company aims to better serve the real economy and residents' cross-border wealth management needs through this strategic move [8]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the unique characteristics of tourism and retail companies, highlighting their high asset replacement costs and low profitability, which makes them attractive for quantitative investment strategies [5][10][14] - It identifies the significant role of government policies in promoting consumer spending, particularly in the tourism and retail sectors, as a key driver for investment opportunities [5][21][22] - The report suggests that the potential investment value of tourism and retail companies is being activated by changes in equity, management, licenses, and new economic models [5][6] Group 1: Characteristics of Tourism and Retail Companies - Tourism and retail companies are primarily state-owned, with 45 out of 92 companies being local state-owned enterprises, which provides a strong safety margin for investments [11][12] - These companies generally have replacement costs that exceed their market value, indicating substantial underlying asset value that is not reflected in their financial statements [14][15] - The average stock price of these companies is relatively low, with 12 companies priced below 5 yuan and 49 below 10 yuan, making them appealing for quantitative investors [17][18] Group 2: Policy Support and Economic Models - Since 2023, numerous policies have been introduced to stimulate consumption, reflecting a high-level commitment to boosting the consumer sector [21][22] - The concept of "first-release economy" is highlighted as a direct application of these policies, with examples including supermarket adjustments and the promotion of winter sports and low-altitude economies [5][21] - The report notes that the low institutional ownership in these companies, with 67 having less than 5% institutional holdings, aligns with the aesthetic preferences of quantitative investors [24][25] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on four key areas of change: equity, management, licenses, and new economic models, which are expected to enhance the investment potential of tourism and retail companies [5][6] - Specific companies to watch include Guilin Tourism, Hong Kong China Travel, and Changbai Mountain, with additional attention on Sanxia Tourism and Tianfu Culture and Tourism [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company, Zhipu AI, is a leading independent general large model developer in China, established in 2019, and has developed a unique General Language Model (GLM) framework that excels in long text understanding and logical reasoning [6][12]. - Zhipu AI's flagship products, GLM-4.5 and GLM-4.7, have achieved top rankings in international benchmark tests and have gained significant recognition in the global developer community [6][14]. - The company has a strong market position, ranking first among independent general large model developers in China with a market share of 6.6% as of 2024 [6][15]. - Zhipu AI plans to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 8, 2026, with an IPO price of HKD 116.20 per share, aiming to raise approximately HKD 4.3 billion [6][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Zhipu AI is built on technology from Tsinghua University and aims to compete with OpenAI, focusing on a self-regressive fill-in-the-blank GLM framework [12][16]. - The company has released several significant models, including the GLM-130B, which marked its entry into the mainstream large language model market [12][16]. 2. Business Model and Operations - The business model is centered around Model as a Service (MaaS), offering both localized and cloud deployment options [21][24]. - Localized deployment accounts for a significant portion of revenue, with high margins, while cloud deployment is rapidly growing and aims to capture a larger market share [24][25]. 3. Historical Financial Analysis - Revenue has shown rapid growth, with projections indicating revenues of CNY 785 million in 2025 and CNY 1.55 billion in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 130% from 2022 to 2024 [1][30]. - The company has been operating at a loss due to substantial R&D investments, with cumulative R&D expenses exceeding CNY 4.4 billion from 2022 to 2024 [6][30]. 4. Core Competitiveness - Zhipu AI's competitive edge lies in its fully self-developed technology system, leading model performance, and a robust open-source ecosystem [38][39]. - The GLM series models have demonstrated significant advantages in various applications, including multi-modal understanding and generation [39][40]. 5. Profitability Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 7.9 billion in 2025, CNY 15.5 billion in 2026, and CNY 32.2 billion in 2027, with a gradual shift towards cloud-driven revenue [6][7]. - The overall gross margin is projected to reach 50% by 2025, with improvements in cloud margins as the business scales [6][7].

Government Debt Growth - The "government debt increment" is expected to achieve a year-on-year growth of no less than 3% in Q1 2026, reflecting a proactive fiscal policy approach[1] - The government debt increment covered 124%, 111%, and 117% of the national fiscal revenue gap in Q1 of 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively[1] - The net financing scale of national bonds in Q1 2026 is expected to remain relatively unchanged compared to the previous year, with 26 batches planned for issuance[1][16] Local Government Bonds - The issuance scale of new local government bonds for project construction in Q1 2026 is expected to decline year-on-year[18] - Under optimistic expectations, the total issuance of new local government bonds is projected to reach 16,660.55 billion yuan in Q1 2026, a 34% increase year-on-year[8] - Under cautious expectations, the total issuance is estimated at 13,100.56 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year[8] Refinancing and Debt Replacement - The refinancing local government bonds for replacing hidden debts is expected to remain at 13,372.75 billion yuan in Q1 2026, similar to the previous year[21] - The expected issuance of refinancing local government bonds for repaying maturing local debts is estimated at 7,828.14 billion yuan under optimistic conditions and 7,056.04 billion yuan under cautious conditions[19][20] Risks and Considerations - There are risks associated with the accuracy of the estimated range for new local government bond limits for 2026[36] - The understanding of the Q1 2026 national bond issuance plan may not be fully accurate, which could impact projections[36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Fujian Province has strong overall comprehensive financial strength, with a relatively high fiscal self - sufficiency rate. However, there are significant regional disparities within the province, which may provide room for moderate credit - quality downgrading for urban investment bond investors, subject to proper risk pricing [1][17]. - The third - industry in Fujian Province has become dominant and continues to strengthen, while the second - industry's share is decreasing. The first - industry maintains a low proportion [1][21]. - Fujian's local government debt burden has increased, but the absolute level remains low in the national context. The debt growth rate is generally in line with the economic output growth rate, and the investment - financing cycle of urban investment platforms is smooth. However, the urban investment debt ratio remains high [1][30]. - The balance of outstanding urban investment bonds in Fujian Province ranks in the middle - upper level nationwide. The province's urban investment platforms are expected to continue to moderately raise debt, keep the debt growth rate in line with the economic growth rate, and optimize the debt term structure and financing costs [1][41]. - In 2025, the issuance of urban investment bonds in Fujian Province showed the characteristics of "stable total volume and negative net financing". In 2026, the funds raised by urban investment platforms will mainly be used for rolling over existing bonds, but incremental financing space may open up with platform transformation [4][61]. - The next three years are a critical window for resolving hidden debts of urban investment in Fujian Province. The repayment pressure is unevenly distributed, and the refinancing demand in 2026 may be higher than that in 2027 and 2028 [4][68]. - The trading activity of urban investment bonds in Fujian Province has room for improvement. Given the current market situation, the credit - quality downgrading strategy may not be very cost - effective, while the duration strategy may be more effective [4][80][86]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Fujian Province Overview 3.1.1 Economic and Fiscal Perspectives - In 2024, Fujian's GDP was 5776.1 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.5%, ranking in the middle - upper level nationwide. Its per - capita GDP was 137,920 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.34% [11]. - In 2024, Fujian's general public budget revenue was 361.529 billion yuan, ranking 6th nationwide, with a year - on - year increase of 0.65%. The general public budget expenditure was 608.093 billion yuan, ranking 11th, with a year - on - year increase of 3.78%. The fiscal self - sufficiency rate was about 59.45%, a decrease of 1.85 percentage points from 2023, ranking 6th nationwide [15]. - There are significant regional disparities in fiscal strength within Fujian Province. The fiscal self - sufficiency rates of Xiamen, Fuzhou, and Quanzhou are significantly higher than the provincial average, while those of inland cities such as Nanping, Sanming, and Longyan are relatively low [15][17]. 3.1.2 Industrial Layout Perspective - In the past seven years, Fujian has been transitioning from the secondary industry to the tertiary industry. In 2024, the share of the third industry reached 51.5%, while the share of the second industry showed a downward trend, and the first industry maintained a low proportion [1][21]. - Fujian has introduced a series of policies to promote high - quality development, such as forward - looking layout of future industries, promotion of green transformation, and strengthening of cross - strait industrial cooperation [22]. 3.2 Current Situation of Outstanding Urban Investment Bonds and Urban Investment Entities in Fujian Province 3.2.1 Review of the Changes and Development of Fujian's Urban Investment Bonds - Fujian's urban investment financing can be traced back to 1986. The development of urban investment in Fujian has followed national macro - policies, with the scale and rhythm strictly regulated [27][28]. - From 2015 - 2019, the balance of outstanding urban investment bonds in Fujian increased steadily. In 2020 - 2022, the scale increased rapidly due to the impact of the COVID - 19 pandemic. Since 2023, the growth rate has slowed down significantly [28][29]. 3.2.2 Focus on the Current Outstanding Bonds and Structure - As of December 11, 2025, the balance of outstanding urban investment bonds in Fujian was about 228.513 billion yuan, ranking 13th nationwide. The weighted average coupon rate was about 3.20%, ranking 29th nationwide, both lower than the national average [41]. - In terms of structure, the credit ratings of the issuers are mainly AA +, with good credit quality. The remaining maturities of the bonds are mainly concentrated in the 3 - 5 - year range, and the bond types are mainly corporate bonds. The coupon rates are mainly below 3% [42][44]. 3.2.3 Focus on the Current Situation of Urban Investment Entities - As of December 11, 2025, there were 86 urban investment entities in Fujian, with 59 having outstanding bonds. The urban investment platforms in Fujian show a pattern of "balanced development of district - county and prefecture - level platforms" [51][52]. - The financing capacity is concentrated in high - grade core platforms. While district - county AA - rated platforms can provide considerable coupon income, their relatively low liquidity due to limited scale needs attention [52]. 3.3 Issuance Situation of Fujian's Urban Investment Bonds in the Primary Market in 2025 - In the first three quarters of 2025, Fujian issued 60.193 billion yuan of urban investment bonds, ranking 14th nationwide, with a cumulative net financing of - 16.115 billion yuan. The issuance showed the characteristics of "stable total volume and negative net financing" [4][60]. - The average coupon rate of newly - issued urban investment bonds in the first three quarters of 2025 was 2.34%, significantly lower than the outstanding coupon rate. The rate was in the middle - upper level among the seven provinces and cities in East China [62]. - In terms of issuance structure, AA + - rated issuers accounted for nearly half of the issuance scale. The issuance terms were mainly 3 - 5 years, and the bond types were mainly corporate bonds and medium - term notes. The industries of the issuers were mainly concentrated in the industrial sector [65]. 3.4 Repayment Situation of Fujian's Urban Investment Bonds in the Next Three Years - As of December 11, 2025, bonds maturing within three years accounted for 53.14% of the outstanding urban investment bonds in Fujian. The repayment pressure is unevenly distributed in the next three years, with the refinancing demand in 2026 likely to be higher than that in 2027 and 2028 [68]. - In terms of repayment structure, corporate bonds have the largest repayment scale, and the repayment subjects are mainly of medium - high credit ratings, which is consistent with the structure of outstanding bonds [69][74]. 3.5 Secondary Market Trading and Yield Performance of Fujian's Urban Investment Bonds - In the first three quarters of 2025, the trading volume of Fujian's urban investment bonds in the secondary market was about 110.983 billion yuan, ranking 14th nationwide, with a turnover rate of 54.52%, ranking 18th, slightly lower than the national average [80]. - Since 2025, the average yield of Fujian's urban investment bonds has been about 2.27%, lower than the national average. The trading activity has room for improvement, and the credit - quality downgrading strategy may not be very cost - effective, while the duration strategy may be more effective [80][86].

Core Conclusions - The report highlights a significant shift in the commercialization of L4 autonomous vehicles globally, with L3 policies breaking new ground in China. Tesla has initiated fully autonomous testing without safety drivers in Austin, while Waymo has seen a 96.6% year-on-year increase in active users, reaching 1.64 million. Domestic players like Pony.ai and WeRide are expanding their commercial operations, indicating a robust growth trajectory in the sector [2][3][5]. Investment Framework - The investment framework emphasizes a spiral upward iteration of hardware and software, suggesting that each major upgrade in capability represents a paradigm shift in thinking. The report outlines a timeline from L1-L2 to L4, indicating a transition from basic functionalities to advanced autonomous driving capabilities by 2030 [6][7][10]. L4 RoboX Monthly Tracking - Tesla's Robotaxi business is rapidly expanding across multiple regions, particularly in Texas, where it has transitioned to fully autonomous testing. The report notes that Tesla's fleet has grown significantly, with plans to extend operations to Saudi Arabia and other states [20][21][23]. C-end Monthly Tracking - The report forecasts a retail sales volume of 22.81 million vehicles for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.2%. It also highlights the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles, projecting a sales volume of 1.32 million units in 2026, with a penetration rate of 60% [39][41][42]. Downstream Application Dimensions - The report categorizes potential investment opportunities in the Robotaxi sector, including integrated models (Tesla, Xpeng), technology providers (Horizon Robotics, Baidu), and the transformation of ride-hailing services (Didi, Cao Cao Mobility). It also identifies opportunities in Robovan and other autonomous vehicle applications [2][5][11]. Upstream Supply Chain Dimensions - The report outlines key players in the upstream supply chain, including manufacturers of autonomous vehicle components (BAIC BluePark, GAC Group) and core suppliers of chips, sensors, and control systems. It emphasizes the importance of partnerships and technological advancements in driving the industry forward [2][5][11].

Macro Strategy - The possibility of a strong start for the economy in Q1 2026 has slightly increased, supported by recent policy implementations and improved economic indicators such as the manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1% in December, marking the first return to the expansion zone since March of the previous year [1][13] - Key factors supporting this optimistic outlook include early implementation of "old-for-new" subsidies to boost consumption, substantial investment support from the "two 500 billion" policies, and a favorable working day count before the Spring Festival [1][13] Fixed Income Market - The bond market is expected to recover in early 2026, driven by the positive impact of the new public fund sales regulations, which allow for more flexible redemption fee arrangements for bond funds [1][15] - In December, the manufacturing PMI increased by 1.7 percentage points, indicating a strong demand-side recovery, while new orders also rose by 1.6 percentage points, suggesting a potential for continued economic improvement [1][15] - The issuance of green bonds and secondary capital bonds has seen fluctuations, with green bond issuance totaling approximately 133.98 billion yuan in the last week of December, a decrease from the previous week [2][20] Company-Specific Insights - BYD (002594) is projected to achieve a net profit of 350/509/664 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a target price of 140 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [7] - Ugreen Technology (301606) anticipates a net profit growth of 41-59% for 2025, with a central guidance of 6.93 billion yuan, slightly above market expectations [8][9] - Ding Tai High-Tech (301377) has revised its profit forecast upwards due to increased demand for AI PCB, projecting net profits of 4.4/8.1/15.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [10] - Century Huatong (002602) is expected to achieve net profits of 50.2/85.9/106.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating based on its innovative growth strategy in the mobile gaming sector [12]

证券研究报告·行业研究·电力设备与新能源行业 太空光伏：地外可靠能源，前景星辰大海 电新首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：郭亚男 执业证书：S0600523070003 guoyn@dwzq.com.cn 目录 证券分析师：徐铖嵘 执业证书：S0600524080007 xucr@dwzq.com.cn 2026年1月6日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1 摘要 2 ◆ 科技竞争前沿，商业航天冉冉升起。随着可回收火箭技术的成熟，航天发射成本大幅下降，逐步打破进入太空的经济壁垒。卫 星频轨资源的稀缺性推动各国加速抢占战略资源，全球航天器发射量持续高增。近10年来全球航天器发射数自2016年237颗增 长至2025年超4300颗，CAGR达34%；25年同增超50%。全球卫星在轨工作数已超万颗，备案数量超10万颗，后续发射数有 望进一步井喷。 ◆ 光伏是卫星唯一高效、长期稳定的能源形式，随功耗增长太阳翼用量提升。卫星电源系统在整星制造成本中约20-30%，其中太 阳翼是航天器在轨运行的能量心脏，材料特殊、可靠性要求 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the non-bank financial industry [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the wealth management industry is evolving from a seller-driven sales model to a buyer-driven advisory model, with significant growth potential in Asia as national wealth increases and household savings shift towards financial assets [2]. - It highlights the importance of learning from overseas wealth management experiences, particularly from Europe and the United States, to enhance the development of wealth management in China [2]. Summary by Sections UBS Group - European Banking System - UBS is the only international bank that has made wealth management its core strategic focus, with a total investment asset scale reaching $6.8 trillion by Q3 2025, of which the wealth management department accounts for $4.7 trillion, or 70% [2][11]. - The wealth management strategy is centered around a "One-firm" model, integrating investment banking, asset management, and commercial banking to provide comprehensive solutions [22]. - UBS targets high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth clients, with specific asset thresholds for different regions, ensuring a focus on affluent clientele [24][27]. Morgan Stanley - American Banking System - Morgan Stanley has a long history and is recognized as a leading financial services company, with a total asset management scale of $3 trillion, ranking 6th globally in wealth management [38]. - The company has shifted its focus towards wealth management, which has shown stable growth over the years, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis [39]. - Morgan Stanley employs a strategy of cost control, business synergy, and compensation incentives to enhance productivity and client service [41]. Charles Schwab - American Discount Brokerage - Charles Schwab has transitioned from a discount brokerage to a leading wealth management institution, offering a full suite of financial services [2]. - The company targets retail clients with a low-cost model, rapidly increasing its asset management scale through client retention and product innovation [2]. - Schwab's revenue is primarily driven by assets under management (AUM), having moved away from reliance on trading commissions [2]. BlackRock - American Fund Management - BlackRock is the largest asset management company globally, with an asset scale of $11.6 trillion by the end of 2024, focusing on passive investment strategies [2]. - The company has diversified its product offerings from fixed income to equity investments, with a significant emphasis on its iShares ETF as a growth driver [2]. - BlackRock's revenue model is based on AUM management fees, supplemented by performance fees and consulting services [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - BYD's sales for 2025 are expected to increase year-on-year, continuing its push towards high-end products and exports [1] - The company is projected to achieve a total revenue of RMB 839.36 billion in 2025, reflecting an 8.01% year-on-year growth [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 35.01 billion in 2025, representing a decrease of 13.03% compared to the previous year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at RMB 3.84 for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.55 [1] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for BYD from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 602.32 billion - 2024: RMB 777.10 billion - 2025: RMB 839.36 billion - 2026: RMB 962.02 billion - 2027: RMB 1,107.28 billion [1] - Net profit projections for the same period are: - 2023: RMB 30.04 billion - 2024: RMB 40.25 billion - 2025: RMB 35.01 billion - 2026: RMB 50.93 billion - 2027: RMB 66.39 billion [1] - The company expects to maintain a net profit margin of approximately 4.17% in 2025 [9] Sales and Market Performance - BYD's cumulative sales for 2025 are projected to reach 5.52 million units, a 20% increase year-on-year, with exports expected to account for 150,000 to 160,000 units [8] - The company has seen a significant increase in high-end vehicle sales, with December sales reaching 70,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 161% [8] - The company has established overseas production capacity exceeding 300,000 units per year, with factories in Brazil, Thailand, and Uzbekistan already operational [8] Battery and Energy Storage - BYD's battery installation for 2025 is expected to grow by 47%, with external battery supply also experiencing significant growth [8] - The company anticipates battery shipments for energy storage to exceed 50 GWh in 2025 and approximately 80 GWh in 2026 [8]