Market Performance Review - The Nasdaq 100 index experienced a cumulative decline of 1.64% from October 31 to November 28, 2025, with a total trading volume of approximately $50,457 billion[9] - As of November 28, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index's PE-TTM was 36.50, placing it at the 91.4% historical percentile since 2011, indicating a relatively high valuation[14] - The risk level of the Nasdaq 100 index was 56.28 as of November 28, significantly down from 92.57 at the end of October, suggesting improved market sentiment[17] Macro and Policy Analysis - The macro environment in November was characterized by mixed signals, with manufacturing PMI at 48.7, below expectations, while non-manufacturing PMI exceeded forecasts[19] - The Federal Reserve's policy expectations fluctuated significantly, with a notable shift towards dovish sentiment by the end of November, raising the probability of a rate cut in December to 71%[34] - The cancellation of the October CPI report due to government shutdown created uncertainty in assessing inflation trends, further complicating the Fed's decision-making[25] Industry Dynamics - The Nasdaq 100 index's volatility in November was heavily influenced by AI-related developments, with concerns about an AI bubble exacerbated by bearish comments from notable investors[35] - Google's launch of the Gemini 3 AI model and Nvidia's strong earnings report helped stabilize market sentiment towards the end of the month, despite initial fears of an AI bubble[36] - The market's focus shifted towards the actual performance of AI companies, with investors demanding stronger evidence of profitability and valuation rationality[35] Future Outlook - The Nasdaq 100 index is expected to experience upward momentum in December, driven by anticipated monetary policy easing and the ongoing AI industry revolution[48] - Key economic data releases, including the November non-farm payrolls and CPI, will be critical in shaping market expectations and the Fed's policy direction[50] - The upcoming earnings reports from major semiconductor companies like Broadcom and Micron will provide insights into the demand for AI-related investments and overall tech sector performance[51]

- The report discusses the SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model, which is constructed using risk and trend dimensions. The risk dimension is measured by the TR indicator, while the trend dimension is assessed using the JAX (slow line) and TMP (fast line) indicators. The model generates signals for local tops and bottoms based on these indicators[14][15] - The SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model shows that as of November 28, 2025, the risk level is 71.67, indicating a moderately high-risk zone. The trend dimension shows a new bullish signal as the fast line crosses above the slow line, suggesting a short-term upward momentum[14][15] - The SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model's backtesting results indicate that the risk level is 71.67 as of November 28, 2025[14][15]

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20251202 预期高股息组合跟踪-20251128 2025 年 12 月 02 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 2025 年 12 月组合最新持仓明细： | 序号 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 申万一级行业 | 建仓日期 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601838.SH | 成都银行 | 银行 | 2025/12/1 | 3.33% | | 2 | 601077.SH | 渝农商行 | 银行 | 2025/12/1 | 3.33% | | 3 | 600000.SH | 浦发银行 | 银行 | 2025/12/1 | 3.33% | | 4 | 600919.SH | 江苏银行 | 银行 | 2025/12/1 | 3.33% | | 5 | 601998.SH | 中信银行 | 银行 | 2025/12/1 | 3.33% | | 6 | 601658.SH | 邮储银行 | 银行 | 2025/12/1 | 3.33% | | 7 | ...

执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·公用事业Ⅱ(HS) 中国燃气（00384.HK） 2025/2026 财年中报点评：业绩承压，自由现 金流持续改善 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 81,410 | 79,258 | 76,748 | 77,444 | 78,489 | | 同比(%) | (11.50) | (2.64) | (3.17) | 0.91 | 1.35 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 3,185 | 3,252 | 2,976 | 3,182 | 3,446 | | 同比(%) | (25.82) | 2.09 | (8.47) | 6.92 | 8.30 | | EPS-最新摊薄（港元/股） | 0.58 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.58 | 0.63 ...

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the normalization of government bond trading may become a primary channel for injecting long-term liquidity, rather than showing immediate effects in the short term [1][18] - The expectation for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has increased to 83%, driven by dovish comments from Fed officials and progress in the Russia-Ukraine conflict negotiations [1][20] - The report highlights the importance of the voting structure and future interest rate guidance in the upcoming FOMC meeting [1][20] Financial Products - The A-share market is expected to experience a rebound rather than a full recovery, with a macro timing model scoring -2 for December, indicating a potential adjustment [2][20] - The report suggests that the technology growth sector may regain attractiveness after adjustments in November, but more incremental capital is needed [2][20] - Fund allocation recommendations lean towards a balanced and slightly aggressive ETF configuration due to anticipated upward market trends [2][20] Fixed Income - The report emphasizes the potential for convertible bonds to benefit from the upcoming "expansion" market in 2026, focusing on mid-cap and niche themes [5][24] - It notes that the 10-year government bond yield fluctuated between 1.75% and 1.85%, with expectations for a return to a 40 basis point spread between 30Y and 10Y bonds by 2026 [6][26] - The report discusses the sensitivity of bond yields to regulatory changes and market conditions, suggesting that recent volatility presents good allocation opportunities [6][25] Industry Recommendations - The report highlights Huadian Co., Ltd. (002463) as a company accelerating its globalization efforts, with revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at 18.339 billion, 25.492 billion, and 29.315 billion yuan, respectively [9] - Ding Tai High-Tech (301377) is noted for benefiting from increased demand for PCB processing due to AI computing needs, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 400 million, 630 million, and 900 million yuan [10][11] - Salted Fish Shop (002847) is recognized for its strong multi-channel layout and product innovation, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 820 million, 1.01 billion, and 1.22 billion yuan [12] - Meituan-W (03690.HK) is under scrutiny due to lower-than-expected profits, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 now at -1.42 billion, 1.2 billion, and 2.46 billion yuan [13] - Alibaba-W (09988.HK) is projected to maintain healthy growth in its core business, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2026-2028 at 101.525 billion, 141.564 billion, and 184.647 billion yuan [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1]. Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission has revised the pricing methods for transmission and distribution costs, aiming to promote the consumption of renewable energy and enhance power supply security [4]. - The highest electricity load during the heating season is expected to reach a historical peak, indicating a balanced energy supply and demand overall [4]. Industry Data Tracking - **Electricity Price**: The average electricity purchase price in November 2025 was 401 RMB/MWh, a year-on-year decrease of 2% and a month-on-month increase of 2.8% [33]. - **Coal Price**: As of November 28, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 816 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 0.49% [43]. - **Water Conditions**: The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 173.41 meters, with inflow and outflow rates increasing by 2.7% and 36.44% year-on-year, respectively [53]. - **Electricity Consumption**: Total electricity consumption from January to October 2025 was 8.62 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [13]. - **Power Generation**: Cumulative power generation from January to October 2025 was 8.06 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [20]. - **Installed Capacity**: As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power reached 1.5 billion kW, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [47]. Investment Recommendations - **Thermal Power**: Focus on undervalued investment opportunities in thermal power, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, recommending companies like Jingtou Energy, Jingneng Power, and Datang Power [4]. - **Charging Pile Equipment**: Suggesting attention to companies like Teruid and Shenghong Shares [4]. - **Photovoltaic Assets**: Emphasizing the potential for value reassessment in photovoltaic and charging pile assets, recommending companies like Southern Power Grid Energy and Longxin Group [4]. - **Green Electricity**: Anticipating improvements in asset quality and growth potential in green electricity, recommending companies like Longyuan Power and China Minmetals Energy [4]. - **Hydropower**: Highlighting the benefits of marketization and low-cost advantages, recommending Changjiang Power [4]. - **Nuclear Power**: Noting the growth potential and expected increases in profitability and dividends, recommending China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4].

Domestic Macro Viewpoints - In 2026, consumption and export growth are expected to slightly decline, while investment growth is anticipated to rebound significantly, becoming a notable driver of economic growth[5] - The budget deficit rate is expected to remain stable, but the scale of special bonds will see limited growth, leading to a slight decline in the overall broad deficit rate[5] - The fiscal and monetary policy stance will continue to be positive and accommodative, with an increasing probability of interest rate cuts in Q1[5] Overseas Macro Viewpoints - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen to 80%, influenced by weak non-farm payroll data and Fed Put expectations[2] - The timing of the rate cut, whether in December or January, has minimal impact on interest rates, as traders' pricing for cumulative rate cuts in December 2026 remains largely unchanged[2] - Attention should be paid to the voting results and the latest dot plot guidance from the December meeting[3] Bond Market Viewpoints - The 10-year government bond yield is currently fluctuating within the consensus range of 1.75%-1.85%[6] - The credit risk evolution is being monitored, particularly in light of liquidity pressures from Vanke's bond extension, with potential trading opportunities arising if credit risks escalate[6] Equity Market Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a final bottoming phase, with growth sectors leading the recovery trend[6] - If the Federal Reserve proceeds with the anticipated rate cut, the market is likely to continue its upward trajectory, driven by the AI industry chain and growth style[6] - The manufacturing PMI remains below 50%, indicating that the fundamentals do not support rising interest rates[6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The company, Ding Tai Gao Ke, is a global leader in PCB drill bits, benefiting significantly from the surge in demand for PCB processing driven by AI computing power [2][5]. - The company has shown a notable performance turnaround, with revenue and net profit growth driven by the increasing demand for high-end PCBs [2][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Ding Tai Gao Ke has over 30 years of experience in the PCB drill bit industry and has expanded its product offerings to include milling tools and special PCB tools [2][14]. - The company achieved a revenue of 1.457 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a 29% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 282 million yuan, up 64% year-on-year [2][22]. AI Computing Power Impact - The demand for AI computing servers is driving a significant increase in PCB demand, particularly for high-end PCBs [3][34]. - IDC forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.8% for the global server market from 2024 to 2029, with accelerated server spending growing over 20% annually [3][34]. - The report highlights that the increasing thickness of PCBs and the rising number of drill holes are leading to higher demand for drill bits [3][53]. Production Capacity and Product Development - The company has a leading position in self-manufactured equipment, with production capacity expected to reach 1.2 million drill bits per month by the end of 2025 and 1.8 million by the end of 2026 [4][5]. - The proportion of high-end products is increasing, with micro-drill sales expected to rise from 21% in 2024 to 28% in the first half of 2025 [4][5]. - The acquisition of German company MPK is expected to enhance technological innovation and international expansion [4][5]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.0 billion yuan, 6.3 billion yuan, and 9.0 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, respectively [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to dynamic price-to-earnings ratios of 104, 66, and 46 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·元件 沪电股份（002463） 赴港递表加速全球化，谷歌 TPU 放量迎量价 齐升 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 8,938 | 13,342 | 18,339 | 25,492 | 29,315 | | 同比（%） | 7.23 | 49.26 | 37.46 | 39.00 | 15.00 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,513 | 2,587 | 3,615 | 5,745 | 7,028 | | 同比（%） | 11.09 | 71.05 | 39.72 | 58.92 | 22.34 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.79 | 1.34 | 1.88 | 2.99 | 3.65 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 100.99 | 59.04 | 42.26 | 26.59 | 21.74 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summ ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is expected to experience an early "spring rally" due to easing external pressures and improving internal conditions [2][3] - The focus for December should be on growth sectors, particularly those aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and new productive forces [3] Group 1: Market Environment - In November, market momentum was limited due to seasonal effects and external pressures, including tightening global liquidity and concerns over AI industry bubbles [1] - As of December, the pressure on the A-share market is gradually easing, with an 80% probability of a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, creating a warmer overall atmosphere [2] - The sentiment around AI stocks has stabilized, reducing the emotional pressure on related A-share sectors [2] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main directions for investment in December: the AI industry chain and sectors related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - Specific sectors to watch include chip design, semiconductor equipment, and platform companies with full-stack technical capabilities [4] - High-growth areas such as energy storage and innovative pharmaceuticals are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4] Group 3: Top Stock Picks - The report lists ten recommended stocks, including: - BeiGene (688235.SH) in the pharmaceutical sector, with a projected EPS growth from 3.66 in 2026 to 6.73 in 2027 [5] - Haisco (002653.SZ), also in pharmaceuticals, with a projected EPS of 0.70 in 2026 and 0.81 in 2027 [5] - Longking (600388.SH) in environmental services, with a projected EPS of 1.20 in 2026 and 1.37 in 2027 [5] - Maiwei (300751.SZ) in machinery, with a projected EPS of 3.14 in 2026 and 3.93 in 2027 [5] - Yutong Bus (600066.SH) in the automotive sector, with a projected EPS of 2.67 in 2026 and 3.18 in 2027 [5] - Cambricon (688256.SH) in electronics, with a projected EPS of 11.64 in 2026 and 20.88 in 2027 [5] - CATL (300750.SZ) in new energy, with a projected EPS of 18.90 in 2026 and 23.35 in 2027 [5] - Alibaba (9988.HK) in media and internet, with a projected EPS of 4.33 in 2026 and 6.44 in 2027 [5] - Xianle Health (300791.SZ) in food and beverage, with a projected EPS of 1.37 in 2026 and 1.64 in 2027 [5] - Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH) in energy and chemicals, with a projected EPS of 5.13 in 2026 and 5.79 in 2027 [5] Group 4: Financial Data - The report provides financial forecasts for the top stock picks, indicating expected revenue and net profit growth across various sectors [62][63] - For example, BeiGene is projected to achieve a revenue of 370.27 billion in 2025, increasing to 462.80 billion in 2026 [63] - CATL is expected to see significant growth, with projected revenues of 4226.04 billion in 2025 and 5349.47 billion in 2026 [63]