Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Q3 2025 US GDP grew at an annualized rate of +4.3%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus expectation of +3.3% and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of +3.5% [1][7] - The main contributors to this growth were strong consumer spending and a reduction in inventory drag, with inventory changes being the largest marginal contributor to the acceleration in GDP growth [1][7] - Despite the strong GDP data, the market initially reacted with concerns of economic overheating, leading to a temporary cooling of interest rate cut expectations, which later reversed as asset prices adjusted [1][8] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates a significant cooling in Q4 2025 GDP growth due to the impact of government shutdowns, with short-term interest rate cut expectations largely dependent on upcoming employment and inflation data [1][8] Fixed Income - The report notes that during the week of December 15-19, 2025, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose slightly from 1.8425% to 1.835% [2][9] - It highlights that the bond market's response to economic data has been muted, with sentiment remaining weak despite the release of disappointing economic indicators [9] - The report suggests that the bond market may face challenges in the first half of 2026, but there are potential opportunities for recovery due to expected policy easing and adjustments in fund redemption rates [9][11] Industry Analysis - The report focuses on Baba Foods (605338), emphasizing its multi-faceted growth strategy and the successful performance of its new store formats, particularly the hand-made soup dumplings [19][20] - The company has seen significant sales increases in both dine-in and takeout formats, with some trial stores achieving daily sales of over 10,000 yuan, indicating a strong market validation of its new store types [19][20] - The report projects that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 290 million yuan in 2025, 330 million yuan in 2026, and 400 million yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +4%, +13%, and +22% respectively [19][20] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company, suggesting that the growth potential of its new store formats has not yet been fully reflected in its market valuation [19][20]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20251224 25Q3 美国 GDP：过时的数据，过度的反应 ——美国 2025 年三季度 GDP 数据点评 2025 年 12 月 24 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《2026 年转债策略：从收益增强转向 风险平衡》 2025-12-22 《技术帖：如何量化央行购金对金价 的影响？》 2025-12-22 东吴证券研究所 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：25Q3 美国 GDP 季环比折年增长+4.3%，大幅好于彭博分析 师一致预期的+3.3%与亚特兰大联储 GDPNow 的+3.5%。从结构看，消 费强劲与库存拖累 ...

- The report primarily focuses on the investment strategies and asset allocation of fund manager Hu Zhongyuan, emphasizing industry beta returns and flexible asset rotation across equity and fixed income markets [1][10][12] - Hu Zhongyuan's equity strategy targets industry beta returns rather than individual alpha, with a focus on sectors with clear growth trends such as AI and renewable energy, while maintaining diversification to control drawdowns [12][29][36] - The fixed income strategy employs cash enhancement through reverse repo and short-term interest rate bonds, complemented by high-grade credit bonds and duration management to mitigate interest rate volatility risks [12][53][61] - Historical performance analysis shows Hu Zhongyuan's funds consistently outperforming benchmarks, with notable returns in both equity and fixed income allocations, supported by effective macro timing and sector rotation [18][22][50] - The Sharpe model analysis indicates a shift in fund style from small-cap growth to large-cap growth starting in 2025, reflecting strategic adjustments in response to market conditions [50][52] - Bond allocation trends reveal a preference for high-grade credit bonds (AAA-rated) and government bonds, with dynamic adjustments in duration and leverage based on macroeconomic factors [61][63][64]

Macro Strategy - The convertible bond market in 2025 is expected to present a "dual hit" of parity and premium rates, transitioning from "equity replacement" to "debt market supplementary income" in 2026, due to high valuations and strong redemption tendencies [1][13] - The trading logic in the underlying stock market is changing, with technology growth shifting from "0-1" to "1-N," leading to a more differentiated performance in convertible bonds [1][13] - Inflation is rising, and the deep rectification of internal competition is underway, allowing convertible bonds to utilize "asymmetry" for reverse investment [1][13] Gold Market Analysis - A linear relationship between gold ETF scale and gold prices indicates that for every additional ton of investment demand, gold prices increase by $0.46/oz, with central bank purchases explaining 92.78% of the residual changes in gold prices [2][15] - The traditional pricing framework for gold has diminished, with central bank demand now playing a crucial role in driving gold prices [2][15] - The ongoing trend of central bank gold purchases is expected to provide strong support for upward movement in gold price levels [2][15] Industry Insights - Tianqi Lithium's profit forecast for 2025-2027 shows significant growth, with net profits expected to reach 12.2 billion, 64.9 billion, and 78.6 billion yuan respectively, driven by rising prices of hexafluorophosphate [9] - Sanhua Intelligent Controls has slightly exceeded market expectations for 2025, with projected net profits of 38.7 to 46.5 billion yuan, supported by stable demand in traditional refrigeration and automotive sectors [10] - Bafang Electric's performance in 2025 shows a significant recovery, with net profits expected to increase by 30.52% year-on-year, driven by the end of inventory depletion and demand recovery [11][12]

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·电池 天赐材料（002709） 电解液盈利乘势而起，固态材料执笔未来 2025 年 12 月 23 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 15,405 | 12,518 | 15,664 | 30,031 | 37,609 | | 同比（%） | (30.97) | (18.74) | 25.13 | 91.71 | 25.23 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,890.62 | 483.93 | 1,221.48 | 6,490.01 | 7,858.11 | | 同比（%） | (66.92) | (74.40) | 152.41 | 431.32 | 21.08 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.93 | 0.24 | 0.60 | 3.19 | 3.86 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 41.77 | 163.20 | 64.66 | 12.1 ...

Group 1 - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market may experience a short-term rally, but it is advisable to maintain a cautious stance. The current position is considered attractive for medium to long-term allocation [1] - There are indications of a potential "Christmas rally" in the US stock market, particularly in technology stocks, which may resonate with Hong Kong's tech sector. However, the unlocking of shares may still create disturbances in the Hong Kong market [1][3] - The report expresses concerns about the potential for a pullback in US tech stocks in January, influenced by the IEEPA Act's legal challenges and cautious investor sentiment regarding upcoming earnings reports [1][2] Group 2 - The US stock market showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.5% and the Dow Jones falling by 0.7%. The report highlights that materials and financial sectors led the gains, while energy and consumer staples lagged [1] - Inflation data from November indicates a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, lower than expected, with core CPI rising by 2.6%, suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures [2] - The employment market in the US continues to cool, with November non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, but the unemployment rate has risen to its highest level since September 2021 [2] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the revival of confidence in AI, citing strong earnings from Micron, which saw a 69% increase in DRAM chip revenue, indicating sustained demand for AI components [3] - TikTok's agreement to sell its US operations to a consortium led by Oracle and Silver Lake is noted as a positive development for Oracle's cloud service revenue, providing stability for its non-AI business [3] - The report anticipates a seasonal increase in market activity as the holiday season approaches, with a decrease in volatility and a potential for a "Christmas rally" [6][7] Group 4 - The report indicates that the US stock market is expected to return to a trajectory driven by economic fundamentals and corporate earnings resilience, with macro policies supporting strong economic growth [7] - The report discusses the ongoing investment in AI as a catalyst for tech sector prosperity, suggesting that the current market rally is primarily driven by sustained profit growth rather than speculative bubbles [7] - The report notes that gold ETFs have seen mixed inflows, with SPDR Gold Trust experiencing a $374 million increase, while other ETFs saw outflows, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards gold [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [55]. Core Insights - The bus industry is positioned to become a global leader in technology output, with overseas market contributions expected to replicate the scale of the Chinese market within 3-5 years [2]. - Key drivers include favorable national policies, advanced technology and product quality, and a recovering domestic market without price wars [2]. - The report recommends focusing on Yutong and King Long as preferred stocks within the bus sector, both rated as "Buy" [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In November 2025, the overall production of the bus industry in China reached 55,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 14.90% and 10.47% respectively [10][11]. - The wholesale volume for the same period was 53,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.78% and a month-on-month increase of 7.28% [10][11]. Company Performance - Yutong's projected net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to grow by 20% annually, reaching 4.94 billion, 5.92 billion, and 7.03 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [4]. - King Long is anticipated to show significant profit recovery, with net profits projected at 440 million, 640 million, and 830 million yuan for the same period, reflecting growth rates of 182%, 45%, and 28% respectively, also rated as "Buy" [4]. Market Dynamics - The domestic market has seen an end to price wars, which is expected to positively impact demand, driven by tourism recovery and public transport upgrades [2]. - The report highlights that the bus industry is on track to challenge previous market peaks from 2015-2017, with potential for new growth ceilings [6]. Sales and Exports - In November 2025, the total sales of buses reached 49,000 units, with significant increases in both wholesale and terminal sales across various bus types [10][13]. - Exports of large and medium buses totaled 4,294 units in November, marking a year-on-year increase of 25% and a month-on-month increase of 12% [35][36]. Regional Performance - Bus sales showed strong seasonal trends, with most regions experiencing year-on-year increases in November 2025, particularly notable in Northeast and South China [24]. - The report indicates that the market concentration remains high, with leading companies like Yutong and King Long maintaining significant market shares in both domestic and export markets [30][36].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·家电零部件Ⅱ 三花智控（002050） 2025 年业绩预告点评：业绩略超市场预期， 机器人量产在即 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 24,558 | 27,947 | 33,505 | 40,056 | 50,683 | | 同比（%） | 15.04 | 13.80 | 19.89 | 19.55 | 26.53 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,921 | 3,099 | 4,210 | 5,093 | 6,794 | | 同比（%） | 13.51 | 6.10 | 35.85 | 20.98 | 33.39 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.69 | 0.74 | 1.00 | 1.21 | 1.61 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 65.43 | 61.67 | 45.40 | 37.52 | 28.13 | [Table_Tag] [T ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is a leading supplier of electric bicycle motors in China, with a mature global layout primarily focused on the European and American markets. It has developed a comprehensive product line including electric bicycle motors, integrated wheel motors, kits, and batteries, enhancing its core competitiveness [7][8] - In Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.034 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 67 million yuan, up 30.52% year-on-year. In Q3 2025 alone, revenue reached 391 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.26%, and net profit was 35 million yuan, a staggering increase of 5640.96% [7][8] - The report indicates that the end of inventory destocking has led to a recovery in demand, and internal cost-cutting measures have contributed to better-than-expected performance [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 1,648 million yuan - 2024: 1,357 million yuan - 2025: 1,474 million yuan - 2026: 1,696 million yuan - 2027: 1,959 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected to be -42.18% in 2023, -17.66% in 2024, 8.61% in 2025, 15.11% in 2026, and 15.50% in 2027 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 127.86 million yuan - 2024: 63.85 million yuan - 2025: 93.88 million yuan - 2026: 123.23 million yuan - 2027: 145.41 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected to be -75.03% in 2023, -50.06% in 2024, 47.04% in 2025, 31.26% in 2026, and 18.00% in 2027 [1] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 21.8%, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 2025 gross margin was 21.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. This improvement is attributed to demand recovery and economies of scale, despite a decline in the proportion of high-margin mid-mounted motors [14] - The report highlights significant cost control, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios decreasing year-on-year [14] Long-term Market Outlook - The report suggests that after the end of inventory destocking, a new cycle may begin, with a long-term market potential remaining vast. The overall inventory level in overseas markets has decreased significantly, although demand recovery for electric bicycles is slow due to the overall economic downturn in Europe. The company is seizing market opportunities and actively supporting customer solutions, which is expected to drive business growth [14] - The report anticipates that the penetration rate of electric bicycles will continue to rise, indicating sustained demand for the company's comprehensive product offerings [14] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains net profit forecasts of 94 million yuan for 2025 and 123 million yuan for 2026, with an expected net profit of 145 million yuan for 2027, reflecting growth rates of 47%, 31%, and 18% respectively. Corresponding P/E ratios are projected at 73x, 56x, and 47x [15]

Group 1: Convertible Bonds Market - The convertible bond market in 2025 is characterized by a "dual hit" of parity and premium rates, indicating a high beta market environment [1][12] - For 2026, the positioning of convertible bonds should shift from "equity replacement" to "debt market supplementary yield" due to high valuations and strong redemption tendencies [1][12] - The trading logic in the underlying stock market is changing, with a transition from "0-1" to "1-N" in technology growth, leading to more differentiated performance in convertible bonds [1][12] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - The relationship between gold ETF demand and gold prices indicates that for every additional ton of investment demand, gold prices increase by $0.46/oz [2][14] - Central bank gold purchases explain 92.78% of the residual changes in gold prices, suggesting a strong support for upward price movement [2][14] - The traditional pricing framework for gold has shifted, with central bank demand now playing a more significant role compared to ETF demand [2][14] Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is preparing for a potential spring rally, with a macro timing model scoring -2 for December, indicating a probability of adjustment but limited downside [4][21] - The technology growth sector is expected to regain attractiveness after adjustments in November, although new capital inflows may take time [4][21] - The A500 ETF has seen significant inflows, indicating confidence among large investors at the market's relative bottom [4][21] Group 4: Industry-Specific Insights - 澜起科技 (Lianqi Technology) is a leading company in memory interface chips, focusing on high-performance solutions for cloud computing and AI, and is one of the top three DDR5 manufacturers globally [9][10] - 华盛锂电 (Huasheng Lithium) is a leading domestic electrolyte additive company expanding into new fields like lithium sulfide, with an upward competitive edge [9][10] - 五粮液 (Wuliangye) is focusing on marketing innovation and channel optimization to enhance market share and ensure stable long-term development amidst industry adjustments [11][10]