Capital Market News - In 2025, China's non-financial direct investment abroad reached $145.66 billion, a growth of 1.3% compared to the previous year[6] - The total revenue from foreign contracted projects was $178.82 billion, increasing by 7.7%, with new contracts signed amounting to $289.22 billion, up by 8.2%[6] - Labor exports increased by 4.6%, with 428,000 workers sent abroad, contributing to a total of 603,000 workers overseas by the end of 2025[6] Industry News - The National Energy Administration reported that hydrogen energy has become a key focus for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with renewable hydrogen production capacity exceeding 250,000 tons/year by the end of 2025, doubling from the previous year[10] - The government aims to enhance the pricing mechanism for power generation capacity, including coal, gas, and new energy storage systems, to adapt to the new power system[8][9] Market Performance - On January 30, 2026, the North Exchange 50 index fell by 0.29%, while the ChiNext index rose by 1.27%[11] - The average market capitalization of the 292 constituent stocks in the North Exchange was $3.193 billion, with a trading volume of $27.211 billion, down by $2.492 billion from the previous trading day[11] New Stocks - Medela (920119.BJ) issued 16 million shares at an IPO price of ¥41.88, raising ¥670 million, with a closing price of ¥109.50 on the first day, reflecting a 161.46% increase[25][26] Risk Warning - Potential risks include individual stock earnings falling short of expectations, intensified industry competition, increased trade frictions, and unfavorable policy changes[27]

Market Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1531.55 points, down 3.59% from the previous week[15] - The average market capitalization of North Exchange A-shares is 3.207 billion yuan, with a weekly trading volume of 143.655 billion yuan, up 8.82% from the previous week[15] - The average turnover rate for the period was 5.88%, an increase of 0.44% from the previous week[15] New Listings and Investor Activity - Medela (920119.BJ) listed on January 30, 2026, with a subscription amount of 1,058.858 billion yuan, setting a record for the North Exchange[9] - The number of qualified investors in the North Exchange exceeded 10 million, a net increase of nearly 2 million compared to the same period last year[10] - The North Exchange has seen a total of 122 companies disclose performance forecasts, with 39 companies expecting profit increases[26] Investment Recommendations - The PE ratios for North Exchange A-shares, ChiNext, Shanghai Main Board, Shenzhen Main Board, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board are 47.75, 45.82, 12.74, 24.87, and 79.79 respectively[26] - Focus on technology growth sectors with high earnings certainty and consumer sectors with marginal improvements for potential rebounds[26] Risks - Potential policy risks may affect investor enthusiasm and market heat[27] - Liquidity risks exist due to lower trading volumes compared to other boards like ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board[27] - External market changes could lead to companies' earnings falling short of expectations, negatively impacting stock prices[27]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - This week (0126 - 0130), there were significant fluctuations in major asset classes. The short - term yields of US stocks, precious metals, and US bonds were significantly adjusted, and the US dollar was slightly repaired. The market believes that the Fed's interest rate cut path in 2026 may remain restrained. The report maintains the previous view that a low - interest - rate environment is necessary and effective, and safe - haven assets such as US bonds and gold will still face increased allocation after short - term fluctuations. Currently, there are no necessary conditions for the Fed's monetary policy to shift [1]. - Overseas uncertainties have led to significant fluctuations in domestic risk - based assets. The report previously suggested that the convertible bond strategy should prioritize "controlling drawdowns" and also pay attention to high - probability pro - cyclical targets. Subjectively, it is recommended to conduct high - low switching within convertible bonds to control drawdowns and adopt a "dumbbell" - type allocation for hedging. In the medium - term, it is difficult to infer a scenario of overall valuation compression for convertible bonds. The core is to control drawdowns, emphasize timing, and balance the rhythm and structure of convertible bond allocation [1]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are: Liqun Convertible Bond, Bengang Convertible Bond, Guotou Convertible Bond, Industrial Convertible Bond, Nenghua Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond 2, Wentai Convertible Bond, Lutai Convertible Bond, Yingfeng Convertible Bond, and Lianchuang Convertible Bond [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Market Review 1.1. Overall Decline in the Equity Market - From January 26th to January 30th, the equity market as a whole declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44% to close at 4117.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.62% to close at 14205.89 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.09% to close at 3346.36 points. The CSI 300 rose 0.08% to close at 4706.34 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 2615.81 billion yuan to 30365.33 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 9.43% [6][9]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 10 industries closed up, with 4 industries rising more than 2%. Petroleum and petrochemicals, communications, coal, non - ferrous metals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery led the gains, rising 7.95%, 5.83%, 3.68%, 3.37%, and 1.82% respectively. National defense and military industry, power equipment, automobiles, computers, and commercial retail led the losses, with declines of 7.69%, 5.10%, 5.08%, 4.77%, and 4.18% respectively [12]. 1.2. Overall Decline in the Convertible Bond Market - From January 26th to January 30th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 2.61%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 9 industries closed up, with 2 industries having a gain of more than 2%. Petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, building materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and building decoration led the gains, rising 5.74%, 2.73%, 1.62%, 1.22%, and 0.68% respectively. Household appliances, computers, power equipment, commercial retail, and national defense and military industry led the losses, falling 10.21%, 7.52%, 6.87%, 5.84%, and 5.56% respectively [13]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 902.09 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 30.87 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 3.31%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Shuangliang Convertible Bond, Guanglian Convertible Bond, Zhekuang Convertible Bond, Dazhong Convertible Bond, Aofei Convertible Bond, Tianzhun Convertible Bond, Outong Convertible Bond, Huayi Convertible Bond, Liyang Convertible Bond, and Yunji Convertible Bond. The average trading volume of the top ten convertible bonds reached 93.23 billion yuan, with the first - ranked trading volume reaching 179.39 billion yuan [13]. - Approximately 24.22% of the individual convertible bonds rose, about 6.51% of the individual convertible bonds had a gain in the 0 - 1% range, and 13.28% of the individual convertible bonds had a gain of more than 2% [13]. - The overall market conversion premium rate declined this week, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 42.75%, a decrease of 12.58 pcts compared to last week. In terms of price ranges, except for the convertible bonds in the price range below 90 yuan, the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in other price ranges widened, with the convertible bonds in the 100 - 110 yuan price range having the largest widening amplitude of 22.90 pcts. In terms of parity ranges, except for the convertible bonds in the parity range below 90 yuan, the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in other parity ranges widened, with the convertible bonds in the parity range above 120 yuan having the largest widening amplitude of 3.44 pcts [18]. - In terms of the premium rate changes of each industry, the conversion premium rates of 19 industries widened this week, with 6 industries having a widening amplitude of more than 2 pcts. Household appliances, media, food and beverages, commercial retail, and automobiles led the widening amplitude, reaching 7.00 pcts, 4.59 pcts, 3.35 pcts, 2.81 pcts, and 2.78 pcts respectively. Social services, petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals led the narrowing amplitude, reaching 8.83 pcts, 5.29 pcts, 3.41 pcts, 3.04 pcts, and 2.62 pcts respectively [26]. - In terms of conversion parity, the parity of 13 industries increased this week, with 10 industries having a widening amplitude of more than 2%. Petroleum and petrochemicals, communications, steel, non - ferrous metals, and building materials led the widening amplitude, reaching 6.37%, 4.42%, 4.41%, 4.04%, and 3.91% respectively. Household appliances, commercial retail, building decoration, media, and beauty care led the narrowing amplitude, reaching 3.90%, 2.46%, 2.25%, 1.91%, and 1.70% respectively [29]. 1.3. Comparison of Stock - Bond Market Sentiments - From January 26th to January 30th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were both negative, and the weekly gain of convertible bonds was greater than that of underlying stocks. In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of the convertible bond market decreased by 3.31% week - on - week and was at the 84.80% quantile level since 2022; the trading volume of the underlying stock market increased by 82.04% week - on - week and was at the 97.00% quantile level since 2022. The trading volume of the underlying stocks increased while that of the convertible bonds decreased, and the increase in the trading volume of the underlying stocks was greater and at a higher quantile level. In terms of the proportion of rising and falling stocks, about 13.04% of the convertible bonds and about 23.48% of the underlying stocks closed up this week; about 53.33% of the convertible bonds had a larger increase or decrease than the underlying stocks. In summary, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better this week [32]. 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report maintains the previous view that a low - interest - rate environment is necessary and effective, and safe - haven assets will still face increased allocation after short - term fluctuations. Currently, there are no necessary conditions for the Fed's monetary policy to shift [37]. - Subjectively, it is recommended to conduct high - low switching within convertible bonds to control drawdowns and adopt a "dumbbell" - type allocation for hedging. In the medium - term, it is difficult to infer a scenario of overall valuation compression for convertible bonds. The core is to control drawdowns, emphasize timing, and balance the rhythm and structure of convertible bond allocation [38]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are: Liqun Convertible Bond, Bengang Convertible Bond, Guotou Convertible Bond, Industrial Convertible Bond, Nenghua Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond 2, Wentai Convertible Bond, Lutai Convertible Bond, Yingfeng Convertible Bond, and Lianchuang Convertible Bond [39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [66]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong price support from factories, with solid methionine prices rebounding [1]. - The average prices for various chemical products are provided, showing fluctuations in pricing and profitability across different segments [2]. - The report identifies key listed companies in the chemical sector, including Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and others [2]. Summary by Sections 2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trends - The report includes a weekly overview of the basic chemical index trends, indicating overall market movements [10]. 2.2 Polyurethane Sector - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are reported as 17,543, 13,864, and 14,085 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of -171, -36, and +110 CNY/ton [2]. - The gross margins for these products are 4,171, 1,493, and 2,363 CNY/ton, reflecting changes of -332, -196, and -15 CNY/ton [2]. 2.3 Oil, Coal, and Olefin Sector - Average prices for ethane, propane, thermal coal, and naphtha are reported as 1,416, 4,349, 520, and 4,074 CNY/ton respectively, with increases of +147, +52, +0, and +171 CNY/ton [2]. - The average price for polyethylene is 7,162 CNY/ton, showing a rise of +62 CNY/ton [2]. - The theoretical profits for ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking for polyethylene production are reported as 694, 1,438, and -245 CNY/ton, with respective changes of -161, +41, and -127 CNY/ton [2]. 2.4 Coal Chemical Sector - Average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,184, 1,745, 3,962, and 2,579 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of -27, +5, +68, and -21 CNY/ton [2]. - The gross margins for these products are 199, 72, -92, and 445 CNY/ton, reflecting changes of -21, +1, +10, and -8 CNY/ton [2]. 2.5 Animal Nutrition Sector - Average prices for VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine are reported as 61.5, 55.1, 17.9, and 14.2 CNY/kg respectively, with changes of -0.7, +0.6, +0.3, and +0.0 CNY/kg [2].

Core Insights - The overall profitability of A-share listed companies continues to recover, with 2,983 companies disclosing performance forecasts, achieving a disclosure rate of 55.73% as of January 31, 2026. The disclosed net profit for 2024 is nearly 540 billion yuan, accounting for 10.30% of total A-share net profit [1][2][3] Performance Forecasts - Among the disclosed performance forecasts, the positive forecast rate is 36.67%, an increase from 34.07% in 2024. There are 1,069 companies expecting profits and 1,846 expecting losses, with the highest positive forecast rate in the ChiNext board at 38.33% [2][3] Profit Growth Rates - The median net profit growth rate for all A-share companies is 17.5% year-on-year, with an overall growth rate of 38.2%, both higher than the growth rates for the first three quarters of 2025. The ChiNext board shows significant improvement in profit growth, driven by overseas computing power and reduced losses in some new energy companies [3][4] Industry Insights - In terms of industry performance, non-bank financials and non-ferrous metals have high positive forecast rates of 87.50% and 65.75%, respectively. Other sectors with notable rates include beauty care (53.85%), automotive (53.68%), and public utilities (50.94%) [4][5] - The median year-on-year net profit growth rates for industries such as non-ferrous metals (68.98%), non-bank financials (67.63%), and steel (59.17%) rank among the highest for 2025 [4][5] Sectoral Opportunities - Key sectors showing strong performance indicators include resource commodities benefiting from new demand from AI and high-end manufacturing, as well as the AI sector experiencing explosive growth due to increased capital expenditure by cloud vendors [5][6] - Leading manufacturing companies are expanding into new growth areas through overseas operations, particularly in automotive parts, power equipment, and shipbuilding, which are expected to drive industry growth [5][6] Market Outlook - The A-share market is entering a traditional bullish window, with historical data indicating a 76% probability of index increases in February, with an average increase of 3.4% [8][9] - Investment focus should be on sectors with strong performance indicators, including AI hardware, new energy storage, and sectors highlighted in the 14th Five-Year Plan, such as commercial aerospace and 6G technology [9]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 供给年前略有收缩，港口煤价小幅上涨 2026 年 02 月 01 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（1 月 26 日至 1 月 30 日）港口动力煤现货价环比上涨 7 元/吨，报 收 692 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 155.18 万吨，环比上周减少 2.52 万吨，降幅 1.60%；本周产地供应来看，山西较为稳定，陕西、内蒙略 有减少，港口供应量有所降低。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量189.33万吨，环比上周增加15.35 万吨，涨幅 8.82%；日均锚地船舶共 100.50 艘，环比增幅 21%；环渤海 四港区库存端 2468.60 万吨，环比上周减少 160 万吨，降幅 6.10% 。本 周港口调出量增加，库存显著降低，带动煤价上涨。 我们分析认为：本周港口煤价受到供给略有收缩叠加节前刚需补库影 响略有上涨，但港口库存仍处于较高位置，电厂日耗仍以刚需为主，且 工业用电临近过年有所走弱，叠加新能源水电风电挤压火电份额，预计 煤价维持震荡走势。 估值与建议： 仍旧关 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20260201 债市窄幅震荡中等待新催化（2026 年第 5 期） 2026 年 02 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐沐阳 执业证书：S0600523060003 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐津晶 执业证书：S0600523110001 xujj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20260126- 20260130）》 2026-01-31 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20260126-20260130）》 2026-01-31 东吴证券研究所 1 / 38 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 如何看待 2026 年 1 月的 PMI 数据，以及央行针对非银机构的流动性安 排？本周（2026.1.26-2026.1.30），10 年期国债活跃 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 供给年前略有收缩，港口煤价小幅上涨 2026 年 02 月 01 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（1 月 26 日至 1 月 30 日）港口动力煤现货价环比上涨 7 元/吨，报 收 692 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 155.18 万吨，环比上周减少 2.52 万吨，降幅 1.60%；本周产地供应来看，山西较为稳定，陕西、内蒙略 有减少，港口供应量有所降低。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量189.33万吨，环比上周增加15.35 万吨，涨幅 8.82%；日均锚地船舶共 100.50 艘，环比增幅 21%；环渤海 四港区库存端 2468.60 万吨，环比上周减少 160 万吨，降幅 6.10% 。本 周港口调出量增加，库存显著降低，带动煤价上涨。 我们分析认为：本周港口煤价受到供给略有收缩叠加节前刚需补库影 响略有上涨，但港口库存仍处于较高位置，电厂日耗仍以刚需为主，且 工业用电临近过年有所走弱，叠加新能源水电风电挤压火电份额，预计 煤价维持震荡走势。 估值与建议： 仍旧关 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6 to 12 months [1]. Core Insights - The insurance industry experienced a slowdown in premium growth in Q4 2025, with life insurance premiums expected to see new policy growth in 2026 [1]. - The report highlights that the total premium income for life insurance companies in 2025 reached CNY 436.24 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, while the total premium income for the industry was CNY 526.96 billion, up 8.5% year-on-year [5]. - The report anticipates a strong performance for listed insurance companies in the 2026 New Year, driven by the ongoing trend of "deposit migration" and the attractiveness of insurance products compared to bank deposits [5]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - In 2025, life insurance premiums grew by 9.1%, but Q4 saw a significant slowdown with a growth rate of only 0.3% compared to Q3, primarily due to a decrease in market demand following a reduction in the preset interest rate [5]. - December 2025 saw a monthly premium income of CNY 215.2 billion, marking a 6.0% year-on-year increase, reversing the negative growth seen in November [5]. Health Insurance - Health insurance premiums increased by 2.0% in 2025, but Q4 experienced a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year [5]. - The report notes that the health insurance sector is expected to grow significantly due to product innovation and improved pricing strategies [5]. Property Insurance - Property insurance premiums reached CNY 17,570 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9%. However, Q4 saw a slowdown with a growth rate of only 0.5% [5]. - The report indicates that the growth in non-auto insurance premiums was driven by significant increases in agricultural, health, accident, and liability insurance premiums in December [5]. Financial Performance and Valuation - The report suggests that both liability and asset sides of insurance companies are improving, with significant upward potential in valuations [5]. - As of January 30, 2026, the insurance sector's valuation is at historical lows, with expected PEV ratios ranging from 0.67 to 0.88 and PB ratios from 1.15 to 2.38 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6 months [1]. Core Insights - In December 2025, the growth rate of insurance premiums for both life and property insurance slowed down, but there is optimism for new business growth in life insurance by 2026 [1]. - The total premium income for personal insurance companies in 2025 reached CNY 46,491 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, while the fourth quarter saw a significant slowdown in growth to just 0.3% [5]. - The report anticipates a strong performance for listed insurance companies in the 2026 New Year, driven by the ongoing trend of "deposit migration" and the attractiveness of insurance products compared to bank deposits [5]. - Health insurance premiums grew by 2% in 2025, but the fourth quarter saw a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year [5]. - Property insurance premiums reached CNY 17,570 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, but the growth rate in the fourth quarter dropped to 0.5% [5]. - The report highlights that the liability side and asset side of insurance companies are continuously improving, with significant upward potential in valuations [5]. Summary by Sections Personal Insurance - The original premium income for personal insurance companies in 2025 was CNY 46,491 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1% [5]. - The fourth quarter saw a premium income of CNY 5,191 billion, with a growth rate of only 0.3%, a decline of 24.7 percentage points from the previous quarter [5]. - December 2025 saw a monthly premium income of CNY 2,152 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.0% [5]. Health Insurance - Health insurance premiums in 2025 increased by 2.0%, but the fourth quarter experienced a slight decline of 0.1% [5]. - The report notes that the health insurance market has significant growth potential due to product innovation and scientific pricing [5]. Property Insurance - Property insurance premiums totaled CNY 17,570 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [5]. - The fourth quarter saw a growth rate of only 0.5%, a decline of 4.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [5]. - December 2025 recorded a monthly premium income of CNY 1,413 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [5]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the market demand remains strong, and the optimization of liability costs will alleviate pressure from interest rate spreads [5]. - The valuation of insurance stocks is currently at historical lows, with the insurance sector's estimated valuation for January 30, 2026, ranging from 0.67 to 0.88 times PEV and 1.15 to 2.38 times PB [5].