证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-10-31 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20251030：10 月 FOMC：不承诺 12 月降息——2025 年 10 月 FOMC 会议点评 核心观点：10 月美联储 FOMC 会议以 10-2 投票结果降息 25bps，并宣布 于 12 月 1 日结束缩表，基本符合预期。发布会上 Powell 表示不预设 12 月降息路径，市场解读鹰派，紧货币交易令美元&美债利率上行，黄金和 美股下跌。向前看，如果数据延续当前趋势，12 月降息仍然是大概率事 件。从策略来看，短期降息预期受数据扰动更大，中长期看美联储仍在降 息周期。2026 年 5 月美联储换主席后，明年市场有望迎来美联储更多次 的降息，对应更低的短期美债利率与更恶化的美元信用。 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 固收深度报告 20251028：从全行业负债与投融资变化观察信用扩张信号 是否出现？ 全行业信用扩张温和，较过往未见显著发力，但行业间结构性分化仍为信 用扩张主旋律：近年来信用扩张的"广度"与"深度"尚未恢复至疫情前 的水平，即使部分行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 increased by over 200% year-on-year, driven by brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [7] - The company achieved a total revenue of 9.28 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a 40% year-on-year growth [7] - The brokerage business revenue reached 2.16 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 64.7% year-on-year, accounting for 23% of total revenue [7] - The investment income for the first three quarters was 3.43 billion yuan, reflecting a 56.7% increase year-on-year [7] - The asset management business reached a scale of 113.5 billion yuan, a 12.4% increase from the beginning of the year [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023 is 10.627 billion yuan, with a projected decline of 0.3% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.964 billion yuan in 2023, down 25.51% year-on-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.38 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.10 [1] - The company anticipates net profits of 3.282 billion yuan, 3.521 billion yuan, and 3.839 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 51%, 7%, and 9% [7]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·证券Ⅱ 华泰证券（601688） 2025 年三季报点评：经纪、自营业务同比大 幅增长，带动前三季度扣非净利润同比翻倍 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 36,578 | 41,466 | 33,261 | 36,609 | 38,848 | | 同比（%） | 14.19% | 13.37% | -19.79% | 10.07% | 6.12% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 12,751 | 15,351 | 15,882 | 17,550 | 18,660 | | 同比（%） | 15.36% | 20.40% | 3.46% | 10.50% | 6.32% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.41 | 1.70 | 1.76 | 1.94 | 2.07 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 16.11 | 13.38 | 12.93 | 11.70 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance met market expectations, with a revenue of 200 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20% and a year-on-year increase of 13% [8] - The advanced packaging technology has achieved breakthroughs, with the market potential exceeding 10 billion yuan and low domestic penetration [8] - The company has successfully delivered core equipment for solid-state battery research and development, indicating strong future growth potential in this area [8] - The overall revenue for 2025 is projected to exceed 750 million yuan, with significant growth expected in lithium battery equipment and materials [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is forecasted to be 525.19 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 1,559.18 million yuan by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate of 47.04% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 66.54 million yuan in 2023 to 406.93 million yuan in 2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 72.27% in 2027 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to increase from 0.57 yuan in 2023 to 3.52 yuan in 2027 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 115.44 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 13.36 billion yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is currently at 200.77, expected to decrease to 32.83 by 2027 [1][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's business structure continues to optimize, with performance generally in line with expectations. In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.114 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.33% [7] - The focus on high-margin testing services has led to an increase in the proportion of testing business revenue, which accounted for 93% of total revenue in Q3 2025 [7] - The company has maintained a stable profit release, with a gross margin of 47.47% in Q3 2025, benefiting from the optimization of its business structure [7] - Continuous investment in R&D has strengthened the company's technological barriers, with R&D expenses increasing by 50.26% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [7] - The company has established key testing capabilities to support the implementation of national standards for intelligent connected vehicles [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is forecasted to be 5.471 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.50% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.009 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.10% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.01 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 17.47 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported significant revenue growth of 164.92% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, achieving a total revenue of 258 million yuan [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 40.69 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 366.01% [1] - The gross margin improved by 9 percentage points to 59.22% compared to the same period last year [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 340 million, 385 million, and 436.15 million yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 54.33 million, 63.08 million, and 82.43 million yuan [1][7] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025 is projected at 0.66 yuan, with P/E ratios of 70.28, 60.53, and 46.32 for 2025-2027 [1][7] - The company has shown a strong recovery trajectory, with a forecasted net profit growth rate of 361.82% for 2025 [1][8] Market and Industry Outlook - The market for automatic dispensing machines is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of over 8.5 billion yuan in 2024 and reaching 22 billion yuan by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 17.3% [7] - The company is actively expanding into the semiconductor packaging sector, which is a key area for future growth [7] - R&D expenses have increased by 19% year-on-year, indicating a commitment to innovation and development in high-end packaging technology [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huayang Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 revenue reached 3.48 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31.43% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.34%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 220 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.74% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.22%, aligning with expectations [8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 18.93%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.13 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.57 percentage points, indicating a stabilization trend after recent competitive pressures in the downstream automotive sector [8] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with construction projects reaching a balance of 364 million yuan, a significant increase of 89.92% from the beginning of the year, aimed at supporting future revenue growth [8] - The company is deepening its smart technology initiatives and expanding its overseas business, with ongoing projects in smart cockpits and wireless charging, which are expected to contribute to steady growth [8] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained at 12.7 billion, 15.6 billion, and 18.7 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 23%, and 20% respectively. The net profit forecasts have been slightly adjusted downwards to 810 million, 1.03 billion, and 1.33 billion yuan for the same period, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 16, and 12 times [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 7.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26.59%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 464.82 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.17% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is estimated at 0.89 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 35.38 times [1] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 12.2 billion yuan by 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 48.40% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.47%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 156 million yuan, up 234.83% year-on-year [1][8] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to the expansion of the company's core business and enhanced operational efficiency, with a gross margin of 43.48%, up from 40.65% in the previous year [8] - The company's asset structure remains robust, with a debt ratio of 42.68%, reflecting prudent financial leverage while expanding operations [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.70 billion yuan, 2.39 billion yuan, and 3.14 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 238 million yuan, 355 million yuan, and 441 million yuan [1][9] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.87 yuan, 1.29 yuan, and 1.61 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [1][9] - The report indicates a positive trend in cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of -207 million yuan, showing improvement compared to the previous year [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1][3] Core Views - The report highlights that the company continues to experience good revenue growth, with a focus on industry trends and the ongoing high growth of its premium products, Lan Ting and 1743. Increased marketing expenses are aimed at enhancing brand awareness and consumer engagement [3] - The updated net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 216.62 million, 264.15 million, and 311.68 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 48, 39, and 33 times [3] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,411 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 15.01%. This is expected to increase to 1,631 million in 2024, 1,878 million in 2025, 2,184 million in 2026, and 2,506 million in 2027, with growth rates of 15.60%, 15.09%, 16.32%, and 14.73% respectively [1][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 166.63 million RMB in 2023, growing to 196.19 million in 2024, 216.62 million in 2025, 264.15 million in 2026, and 311.68 million in 2027, with growth rates of 15.11%, 17.74%, 10.41%, 21.94%, and 17.99% respectively [1][9] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.35 RMB for 2023, increasing to 0.41 RMB in 2024, 0.45 RMB in 2025, 0.55 RMB in 2026, and 0.65 RMB in 2027 [1][9] - The company’s P/E ratios are expected to decrease from 62.10 in 2023 to 33.20 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [1][9]

Macro Strategy - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are influenced by historical missions, evolving from a stabilizer to a highly independent central bank focused on maximizing employment and price stability [1] - The Taylor rule suggests only one rate cut in 2026, while traders are pricing in 2.7 cuts, with expectations of at least three cuts in 2026, potentially lowering the policy rate to 2.75-3.0% [1] - A more accommodative monetary policy could lead the U.S. economy from a soft landing to expansion, impacting market dynamics such as lower short-term Treasury yields and higher long-term yield premiums [1] Tourism Investment - The emotional need for happiness drives mainland Chinese tourists to seek cultural experiences abroad, with 39.8% prioritizing happiness through travel, 13.6 percentage points higher than the global average [2] - High cultural value is essential for tourism activities favored by Chinese tourists, with significant demand for pop culture events and related merchandise [2] - Classic cultural IPs significantly enhance long-term tourism spending, as seen with Disney and iconic film locations like New Zealand's "The Lord of the Rings" [2] Fixed Income - Credit expansion across industries remains moderate, with structural differentiation evident, as overall leverage has not returned to pre-pandemic levels [4] - Industries currently experiencing credit expansion include light manufacturing, electronics, and public utilities, characterized by stable cash flows and predictable capital expenditure returns [4] - Sectors facing credit contraction include real estate and consumer goods, which require broader economic recovery to boost demand [4] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The wealth management industry is transitioning from a seller-driven model to a buyer advisory model, influenced by rapid fintech development and increasing national wealth [5] Automotive Industry - 2025 marks a pivotal year for automotive smart technology, with significant advancements in urban NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) capabilities among leading manufacturers [6] - A comparative evaluation of six smart driving suppliers indicates that Huawei and XPeng lead in overall performance, while other manufacturers are closing the gap [6] Non-Banking Financial Sector Insights - The non-banking sector is experiencing an upward trend in market conditions, with public fund holdings in this sector remaining relatively low, indicating potential for growth [8] Company-Specific Reports - Shoulu Hotel's RevPAR decline is narrowing, with ongoing optimization in store openings and structural upgrades, leading to adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [9] - Xingrong Environment's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, driven by stable pricing mechanisms and growing operational capacity in wastewater treatment [10] - The semiconductor and display sectors are expected to see continued growth, with significant orders and product deliveries enhancing revenue prospects for companies like Jingce Electronics [11] Energy and Environment - Nanfang Storage's Q3 results reflect a strong revenue increase, supported by new project launches and stable pricing in the energy sector [13] - The company is well-positioned for future growth with a focus on energy storage solutions and expanding its market presence [13] Miscellaneous Company Reports - Companies like China Ping An and Huazhong Technology are adjusting profit forecasts upward due to improved operational performance and market conditions [38][39] - The food industry is seeing mixed results, with companies like Anji Food adjusting profit expectations due to fluctuating demand and cost pressures [30][34]