Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Views - The insurance industry showed improvement in premium growth for both life and non-life insurance in November, with a positive outlook for the "New Year" performance in life insurance [1] - The report highlights a narrowing decline in life insurance premiums, with a year-to-date original premium of CNY 44,206 billion, up 9.2% year-on-year, and a scale premium of CNY 49,969 billion, up 8.4% year-on-year [6] - The health insurance sector also saw a year-on-year premium increase of 3.3% in November, indicating a long-term growth potential in the market [6] - Non-life insurance premiums increased by 2.3% year-on-year in November, with improvements in both auto and non-auto insurance segments [6] - The report anticipates continued strong market demand and an optimistic outlook for new premium growth and new business value (NBV) growth, supported by favorable product pricing compared to bank deposits [6] Summary by Sections Life Insurance - November saw a single-month original premium of CNY 1,548 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 2.4%, which is an improvement from the previous month [6] - The report expects strong demand for insurance products in 2026, with a continued increase in the proportion of participating insurance products, which will help optimize liability costs [6] Health Insurance - Health insurance premiums for the year-to-date increased by 2.4%, with November showing a 3.3% year-on-year growth, reflecting a positive trend [6] - The report suggests that regulatory policies may further stimulate growth in long-term health insurance products [6] Non-Life Insurance - Non-life insurance premiums reached CNY 16,157 billion year-to-date, up 3.9% year-on-year, with November premiums at CNY 1,248 billion, marking a 2.3% increase [6] - The report notes that the growth in auto insurance premiums has turned positive, with a year-to-date increase of 3.1% [6] - The report anticipates that the implementation of "reporting and operation integration" in non-auto insurance may create short-term pressure on premium growth but will improve overall profitability in the long term [6] Market Outlook - The report indicates that both liability and asset sides are improving, with significant upside potential in valuations [6] - The current valuation of the insurance sector is at historical lows, with expected PEV ratios between 0.67-1.0 and PB ratios between 1.31-2.17 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a weekly data tracking of secondary - capital bonds from December 22, 2025, to December 26, 2025, covering primary - market issuance, secondary - market trading, and valuation deviation of individual bonds [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary - Market Issuance - During the week from December 22, 2025, to December 26, 2025, 8 new secondary - capital bonds were issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets, with a total issuance scale of 53.15 billion yuan. The issuance term was 10 years, and the issuers included local state - owned enterprises, private enterprises, other enterprises, and central financial enterprises. The issuer regions were Sichuan, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Beijing, and Hunan, and the subject ratings were AA +, AA -, A +, and AAA [1] 3.2 Secondary - Market Trading - **Trading Volume**: The total weekly trading volume of secondary - capital bonds was approximately 272.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 1 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The top three bonds in terms of trading volume were 25 Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 03A(BC) (19.41 billion yuan), 25 China Construction Bank Secondary Capital Bond 03BC (9.691 billion yuan), and 25 Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 01BC (8.304 billion yuan). By issuer region, the top three in trading volume were Beijing (about 217.1 billion yuan), Shanghai (about 19.3 billion yuan), and Guangdong (about 10 billion yuan) [2] - **Yield to Maturity**: As of December 26, for 5Y secondary - capital bonds, the yield - to - maturity changes of AAA -, AA +, and AA - rated bonds compared to the previous week were 1.19BP, 0.00BP, and 0.00BP respectively; for 7Y bonds, the changes were - 1.05BP, - 1.52BP, and - 1.52BP; for 10Y bonds, the changes were - 1.92BP, - 0.95BP, and - 0.95BP [2] 3.3 Valuation Deviation of Top 30 Individual Bonds - **Overall Situation**: The overall valuation deviation of the weekly average trading price of secondary - capital bonds was not significant. The proportion of discount transactions was less than that of premium transactions, but the discount magnitude was greater than the premium magnitude [3] - **Discount Bonds**: The top three bonds with the highest discount rates were 22 Shengjing Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (- 0.5385%), 24 Chang'an Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (- 0.4596%), and 25 Jilin Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (- 0.3868%). The Zhongzheng implied ratings were mainly AAA -, AA, and AA +, and the regions were mainly Beijing, Tianjin, and Guangdong [3] - **Premium Bonds**: The top three bonds with the highest premium rates were 23 Huaxing Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.3868%), 22 China Construction Bank Secondary Capital Bond 02B (0.2792%), and 23 Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 01B (0.2319%). The Zhongzheng implied ratings were mainly AAA -, AA, and AA -, and the regions were mainly Beijing, Shanghai, and Sichuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Conant Optical (02276.HK), indicating a positive outlook for investment [1]. Core Insights - Conant Optical is a leading global manufacturer of lenses, with significant growth potential in the smart glasses market. The company has established a strong position in the resin lens sector and is expanding its international presence [11][70]. - The lens industry is experiencing steady growth, driven by increasing demand for corrective lenses among children and the elderly, as well as the rising popularity of smart glasses. The market for high-refractive lenses is expected to grow significantly [30][40]. - The company has a robust business model, with a mature sales network covering over 90 countries, and is well-positioned to benefit from the upcoming boom in the smart glasses sector [11][70]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Conant Optical is a leading resin lens manufacturer in China, with production bases in Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Japan. The company has been actively expanding its smart glasses business and has established partnerships with several global technology giants [11][70]. - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with the founder holding 44.33% and GoerTek as the second-largest shareholder with 20.03%. This collaboration is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in the XR (Extended Reality) sector [13]. 2. Industry Growth - The global lens market is projected to grow from $4.5 billion in 2020 to $6.2 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 8.3%. The Chinese lens market is also expanding, with sales expected to reach 20.72 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 11.5% [31][35]. - The demand for functional lenses, such as blue light blocking and anti-fatigue lenses, is increasing due to changing consumer needs. The market for high-refractive lenses is still underdeveloped in China, presenting significant growth opportunities [46]. 3. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a CAGR of 17.2% from 2020 to 2024, and net profit growth at a CAGR of 35.2% during the same period. The gross margin has improved from 35.0% in 2020 to 41.0% in the first half of 2025 [18][26]. - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 1.76 billion yuan, with net profit expected to reach 327.02 million yuan, indicating a solid financial outlook [1]. 4. Smart Glasses Market Potential - The smart glasses market is at a critical turning point, with major tech companies like Alibaba and Amazon entering the space. The demand for smart glasses is expected to surge, with global shipments projected to reach 20 million units by 2028 [59][61]. - Traditional lens manufacturers are well-positioned to benefit from this trend, as the need for high-refractive lenses in smart glasses increases. The integration of advanced technologies in smart glasses is expected to enhance the value of lens products [66][67].

Core Conclusions - The overall beta of the automotive parts sector is expected to weaken in 2026, with structural opportunities being more favorable than total opportunities. The focus should be on "smart driving (L2++/L3/L4) + liquid cooling (AIDC) + humanoid robots" as the three main technology lines, along with the long-term certainty of "going overseas" [2][34] - EPS perspective: 1) Seek alpha that can traverse cycles in the existing market, prioritizing product companies with high competitiveness that can increase market share and companies that can enhance ASP by entering high-value tracks through internal and external expansion. 2) Globalization opens up growth space for automotive parts, with a significant increase in growth potential and risk resistance by prioritizing capacity layout in Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia [2][34] - Recommended companies include Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., Minth Group, Joyson Electronics, and Xingyuan Zhuomag, with New Spring Co. as a focus [2] EPS Dimension Outlook - The automotive parts sector's beta is expected to be weak due to domestic total factors in 2026, with structural opportunities preferred over total opportunities. The focus should be on high-competitiveness product companies that can increase market share and those that can enhance ASP by entering high-value tracks through internal and external expansion [34] - Globalization is expected to open up growth space for automotive parts, with incremental orders mainly coming from Southeast Asia and European new energy markets [34] Market Review - The automotive parts sector's overall performance in 2025 was significantly influenced by AI and robotics, with the sector index outperforming the market in the first half of the year. However, it faced challenges in the second half due to U.S. tariffs and price wars [11][19] - The sector's valuation fluctuated, starting from approximately 21 times earnings at the beginning of 2025, peaking at 32 times by September, and then adjusting back down due to tariff impacts and slower-than-expected robotics progress [11][19] Globalization and Market Expansion - The global light vehicle production is projected to reach 78.82 million units in 2024, with overseas markets, particularly in Europe and North America, being significant contributors [52][57] - Chinese automotive parts companies are increasingly following domestic car manufacturers in their overseas expansion, leveraging cost control and response efficiency advantages [60][61] Recommended Companies and Focus Areas - Companies recommended for investment include Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., Minth Group, and others that are positioned to benefit from high competitiveness and market share growth [2][34] - Focus areas include smart driving technologies, liquid cooling systems, and humanoid robotics, which are expected to drive growth in the automotive parts sector [2][34]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Dou Shen Education, for the first time [1]. Core Insights - Dou Shen Education is positioned as a leader in aesthetic education, focusing on creating an "AI + Education" ecosystem. The company aims to leverage its self-developed AI models to enhance educational services and product offerings [1][10]. - The company has undergone significant restructuring and is now focusing on non-subject quality education and AI education, which has led to a return to profitability and growth in revenue and net profit [20][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Dou Shen Education, formerly known as Li Si Chen, has transformed its business model to focus on K12 non-subject quality education, utilizing AI technology to reconstruct educational services [13]. - The company has a strong management team with extensive experience in the education sector, led by its actual controller, Dou Xin, who holds 18.29% of the shares [18]. 2. Market Dynamics - The education and training sector is experiencing a significant demand, with the number of college entrance exam candidates increasing from 9.4 million in 2017 to 13.42 million in 2024, while the admission rate has decreased from 43.7% to 37.0% during the same period [34]. - The report highlights a supply-demand imbalance in the education sector, with rising prices expected due to increased competition and a recovery in participation rates post-regulatory changes [36]. 3. AI Education Strategy - Dou Shen Education has developed a product matrix that includes AI-driven educational tools such as "AI Dual Teacher" and "AI Super Training Ground," which aim to enhance the learning experience and efficiency [15][19]. - The company has established a dual-driven model combining AI software services and hardware terminals, creating a closed-loop learning ecosystem that covers user needs across various scenarios [10][12]. 4. Financial Projections - The report forecasts total revenue for Dou Shen Education to reach 1,050.6 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 38.82%. Net profit is expected to be 90.62 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 33.92% compared to the previous year [1]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.04 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 165.33 at the current market price [1]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The report notes that AI technology is breaking the traditional constraints of education, allowing for high-quality, large-scale, and personalized learning experiences that were previously unattainable [51]. - Dou Shen Education's unique data assets and knowledge graphs create a competitive barrier that is difficult for competitors to replicate in the short term [10][12].

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·食品加工 | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,103 | 3,240 | 3,696 | 4,365 | 5,047 | | 同比（%） | 3.10 | 4.43 | 14.07 | 18.11 | 15.63 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 276.71 | 341.99 | 442.23 | 502.57 | 584.72 | | 同比（%） | 7.50 | 23.59 | 29.31 | 13.64 | 16.35 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.45 | 0.56 | 0.73 | 0.82 | 0.96 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 44.15 | 35.72 | 27.63 | 24.31 | 20.89 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dw ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Q3 2025 US GDP grew at an annualized rate of +4.3%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus expectation of +3.3% and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of +3.5% [1][7] - The strong consumer spending and reduced inventory drag were the main contributors to this growth, with inventory changes being the largest marginal contributor to the acceleration in GDP growth [1][7] - Despite the strong GDP data, the market's initial reaction suggested overheating, leading to a temporary cooling of interest rate cut expectations, which later reversed as asset prices adjusted [1][8] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates a significant cooling in Q4 2025 GDP growth due to government shutdown impacts, with short-term interest rate cut expectations depending on upcoming employment and inflation data [1][8] Fixed Income - The report notes that during the week of December 15-19, 2025, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose slightly from 1.8425% to 1.835% [2][9] - It emphasizes that the bond market's response to economic data has been muted, reflecting a focus on policy expectations rather than fundamental economic performance [9] - The report suggests that while there is limited immediate need for significant liquidity release through reserve requirement cuts, the possibility of easing policies in early 2026 remains [11] Industry Insights - Jiufeng Energy is focusing on expanding its commercial aerospace special gas market share through the development of its launch site and partnerships with rocket companies [19][20] - The company has completed the first phase of its Hainan commercial aerospace launch site project, with core products undergoing multiple launch validations, indicating a strong operational track record [19][20] - Jiufeng Energy's profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 1.56 billion, 1.80 billion, and 2.13 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.0, 15.6, and 13.2 [19][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is focusing on expanding its commercial aerospace special gas market share through the development of its Hainan commercial aerospace launch site and strategic partnerships with rocket companies [7] - The first phase of the Hainan launch site has been completed, with core products undergoing multiple rounds of launch verification, including successful applications of liquid hydrogen in various rocket launches [7] - The company plans to expand its production capacity in the second phase to meet the increasing demand for special gases in commercial aerospace, with an estimated total investment of approximately 300 million yuan [7] - The company aims to establish a professional brand in aerospace special gases, anticipating a continuous increase in market share as demand grows [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to be 22,047 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of -17.01%, followed by 24,392 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 10.64% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,684 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 28.93%, and is projected to reach 1,557 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a decrease of 7.52% [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.42 yuan in 2024 and 2.24 yuan in 2025 [1][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is estimated to be 16.67 for 2024 and 18.03 for 2025 [1][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The demand for AI computing servers is continuously being revised upwards, which in turn drives the demand for optical modules [1] - Major AI companies are increasing their capital expenditures, leading to an upward revision in server shipment expectations [1] - The introduction of automation in the optical module sector is becoming essential due to technological upgrades, rapid demand growth, and overseas capacity expansion [3] Summary by Sections AI Computing Servers and Optical Modules - The launch of Google Gemini 3 in November 2025 has demonstrated superior performance, leading to increased market interest in TPU servers, which are expected to shift from in-house use to external sales, thus boosting shipment forecasts [1][2] - Optical modules are critical components for building efficient computing clusters, with increasing bandwidth requirements due to advancements in server architecture [2] Automation in Optical Module Production - Historically, the optical module industry has been labor-intensive, but the need for automation is driven by technological upgrades, rapid demand growth, and the establishment of overseas production capacities [3] - The transition from 800G to 1.6T optical modules necessitates higher assembly precision, making automated assembly and inspection equipment essential [3] - The expected demand for optical modules is projected to reach tens of millions by 2026, making manual production insufficient to meet capacity needs [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with relevant product offerings in the optical module automation space, including: - Coupling equipment: Robotech - AOI inspection equipment: Aotaiwei, Tianzhun Technology, Kuaike Intelligent - Adhesive equipment: Bozhong Precision - Automated assembly equipment: Kaige Precision - Fiber array units (FAU): Jieput [4]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Q3 2025 US GDP grew at an annualized rate of +4.3%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus expectation of +3.3% and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of +3.5% [1][7] - The main contributors to this growth were strong consumer spending and a reduction in inventory drag, with inventory changes being the largest marginal contributor to the acceleration in GDP growth [1][7] - Despite the strong GDP data, the market initially reacted with concerns of economic overheating, leading to a temporary cooling of interest rate cut expectations, which later reversed as asset prices adjusted [1][8] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates a significant cooling in Q4 2025 GDP growth due to the impact of government shutdowns, with short-term interest rate cut expectations largely dependent on upcoming employment and inflation data [1][8] Fixed Income - The report notes that during the week of December 15-19, 2025, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose slightly from 1.8425% to 1.835% [2][9] - It highlights that the bond market's response to economic data has been muted, with sentiment remaining weak despite the release of disappointing economic indicators [9] - The report suggests that the bond market may face challenges in the first half of 2026, but there are potential opportunities for recovery due to expected policy easing and adjustments in fund redemption rates [9][11] Industry Analysis - The report focuses on Baba Foods (605338), emphasizing its multi-faceted growth strategy and the successful performance of its new store formats, particularly the hand-made soup dumplings [19][20] - The company has seen significant sales increases in both dine-in and takeout formats, with some trial stores achieving daily sales of over 10,000 yuan, indicating a strong market validation of its new store types [19][20] - The report projects that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 290 million yuan in 2025, 330 million yuan in 2026, and 400 million yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +4%, +13%, and +22% respectively [19][20] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company, suggesting that the growth potential of its new store formats has not yet been fully reflected in its market valuation [19][20]