Macro Liquidity and Fund Prices - The central bank conducted a significant net withdrawal in the open market, with a cumulative net withdrawal of 1.66 trillion yuan, primarily due to the maturity of reverse repos around the year-end[7] - Money market rates remained stable, with R007 and DR007 rates down by 64bp and 51bp respectively, indicating a continued loose monetary environment[10] - The yield on 1-year and 10-year government bonds decreased by 4.9bp and increased by 3.1bp respectively, reflecting pressure on the bond market amid a strong stock market[10] Micro Liquidity and A-share Market - A-shares experienced a significant increase in trading volume, with an average daily trading amount rising to 28,519.51 billion yuan, a 34% increase from the previous period[14] - The net inflow of funds into A-shares reached 748 billion yuan, driven by accelerated inflows of financing funds[18] - Retail investors showed increased activity, with net inflows of 1,557 billion yuan, marking a 641 billion yuan increase from the previous period[24] Short-term Indicator Tracking - The volatility index is at a relatively high level, suggesting that maintaining current volume levels may be challenging, with a likelihood of short-term consolidation and slower growth[57] - The stock-foreign exchange hedging index indicated a significant divergence, suggesting a bullish sentiment in the A-share market following recent gains[60] Risk Warnings - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery, unexpected overseas recession, geopolitical black swan events, and discrepancies in statistical data[74]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. (桐昆股份) for the first time [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the polyester chain is undergoing a reversal of internal competition, which is expected to improve the profitability of the company in the future [8]. - The company is the largest producer of polyester filament in the world and is constructing a 1.2 million tons/year green differentiated fiber project [8]. - The report anticipates significant growth in net profit for the company, projecting net profits of 20 billion, 35 billion, and 40 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 82.64 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 33.30% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 797.04 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 539.10% [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 0.33 yuan, with a projected P/E ratio of 52.38 [1]. - The company’s total assets are forecasted to be 104.39 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 66.30% [6][9]. - The report predicts a gradual increase in net profit margins, with the net profit margin expected to rise from 1.19% in 2024 to 3.88% in 2027 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the CPI and PPI are better than expected, reflecting a gradual recovery in the real estate chain prices, suggesting that 2026 may mark a turning point for the industry's performance [2]. - Short-term market conditions remain volatile, with a focus on high-dividend stocks and sectors such as exports and home improvement [2]. - The report highlights the importance of technological self-reliance during the 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which is expected to benefit cleanroom engineering and related companies [2]. - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, but signs of recovery are emerging as companies reduce personnel and expenses [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for structural growth in the glass fiber and cement sectors, driven by demand from wind power and new applications [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - Cement prices have shown a slight decline, with the national average at 352.5 RMB/ton, down 0.3 RMB/ton from the previous week and down 51.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [7][18]. - The average cement inventory ratio is 60.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week but an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [25]. - The average daily cement shipment rate is 38.7%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous week but up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [25]. 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that the glass fiber industry is expected to see stable growth in demand, with effective production capacity projected to reach 759.2 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [11]. - The cement industry is undergoing supply-side adjustments, with a focus on eliminating outdated capacity, which is expected to support profitability in 2026 [11]. - The glass market is experiencing a supply contraction, which may provide price elasticity in 2026, although current demand remains weak [11]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector saw a weekly increase of 3.68%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.90% [7]. - The report suggests that the valuation of leading companies in the construction materials sector is at historical lows, indicating potential for recovery as industry dynamics improve [11]. - Recommendations include companies like China National Building Material and Conch Cement, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing industry consolidation and recovery [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 114.6 RMB / 128.3 HKD, indicating approximately 50% upside potential from the current stock price of 86.8 HKD [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the siRNA field, focusing on chronic diseases and has developed proprietary delivery technologies with global competitiveness. It has established strategic partnerships, including one with Boehringer Ingelheim, which could yield up to 2.36 billion euros in milestone payments [7][19]. - The global market for small nucleic acid drugs is projected to grow significantly, from 5.7 billion USD in 2024 to 54.9 billion USD by 2033, with a CAGR of 21%-29% [7][43]. - The company's FXI siRNA product has the potential to tap into a market space worth over 10 billion USD, addressing significant clinical needs in the anticoagulant drug market [7][43]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2007, specializes in siRNA drug development and has built a comprehensive industry chain from drug discovery to commercialization, becoming a global leader in the small nucleic acid drug development field [13][14]. Market Potential - The small nucleic acid drug market is expected to grow rapidly, with siRNA drugs projected to capture a larger market share due to advancements in delivery systems and chemical modifications [43][45]. - The report highlights that the siRNA market is anticipated to grow at a higher rate than ASO drugs, with siRNA drugs expected to account for 44.5% of the market by 2024 [43][45]. Product Pipeline - The company has a robust pipeline with four candidates in Phase 2 clinical trials and over 20 projects in preclinical stages, demonstrating a strong capability to advance multiple assets to clinical development each year [26][24]. - Key products include FXI siRNA, APOC3 siRNA, and HBV siRNA, each targeting significant patient populations and addressing unmet clinical needs [7][29]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with total revenue projected to reach 142.63 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 324,052.27% [1]. - The company anticipates achieving profitability by 2030, with a 50% revenue sharing model with partners [7].

Macro Strategy - The report anticipates a "good start" for financial data in January 2026, driven by seasonal factors and government fiscal policies [1][11] - The U.S. economy shows mixed signals, with a surprising drop in unemployment alleviating some market concerns, while geopolitical tensions and unresolved tariff issues add uncertainty [1][11] - The expectation for Q1 2026 is a potential upward pulse in the U.S. economy, benefiting risk assets like equities and commodities [1][11] Financial Products - A-share trading volume surpassed 30 trillion yuan, indicating heightened trading sentiment, but also suggesting potential for increased short-term volatility [2][12] - The macro timing model for January 2026 scores 0, historically correlating with a 76.92% probability of A-share index gains in the following month [2][12] - The report recommends a balanced ETF allocation strategy, focusing on sectors showing strength and those rebounding from lows [2][12] Fixed Income - The report discusses the "stock-bond seesaw effect," highlighting a steepening yield curve under a loose monetary policy environment [5][14] - The central economic work conference indicates a flexible approach to monetary policy, with potential for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions in Q1 2026 [5][14] - The bond market is experiencing adjustments, with a notable shift of funds from bonds to equities, influenced by strong stock market performance [5][14] Industry Recommendations - Xianle Health (300791) is highlighted for its commitment to innovation and growth potential in the health sector [7] - WeRide (00800.HK) is positioned as a leader in the Robotaxi space, expected to benefit from policy support and technological advancements, with projected revenues increasing significantly from 5.55 billion yuan in 2025 to 19.87 billion yuan by 2027 [7] - Haidilao (06862.HK) maintains a strong market position with a focus on operational efficiency and new brand development, projecting net profits to grow from 42.28 billion yuan in 2025 to 51.13 billion yuan in 2027 [8] - Lingyun Co. (600480) is recognized for its leadership in the automotive parts sector, with expected net profits rising from 8.01 billion yuan in 2025 to 10.55 billion yuan in 2027 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has signed a significant order worth 48.81 million yuan for steel-lined wear-resistant pipes, which is expected to enhance revenue and profit growth in 2026 [7] - The new product, steel-lined modified polyurethane wear-resistant pipes, has entered a growth phase, with applications in various mining and dredging scenarios [7] - The company is expanding its market presence in overseas regions such as the Middle East, South America, and Australia, with a focus on high-end markets [7] - The financial forecasts indicate a steady growth in revenue and net profit from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing over the years [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to be 599.27 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 910.32 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.56% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline to 104.83 million yuan in 2024, then recover to 165.31 million yuan by 2027, with a CAGR of 18.79% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.79 yuan in 2024 to 1.25 yuan in 2027 [1] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 26.65 in 2024 to 16.90 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1] Core Insights - The commercial operation of the Zhangzhou Nuclear Power Unit 2 commenced on January 1, 2026, completing the first phase of the Zhangzhou Nuclear Power project, which is expected to provide approximately 60 billion kWh of clean electricity annually [4] - The first green electricity direct connection project in Shandong and Hubei has been approved, with a total scale of 345 MW of new energy facilities, including 75 MW of wind power and 270 MW of photovoltaic power [4] - The average national grid purchase price of electricity in January 2026 decreased by 8% year-on-year [4] - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port increased by 17 RMB per ton week-on-week, reaching 699 RMB per ton as of January 9, 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 8.98% [4][43] - The inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir showed a decrease in inflow by 6.3% and an increase in outflow by 7.2% as of January 9, 2026 [4][50] Industry Data Tracking - Electricity Consumption: In the first eleven months of 2025, total electricity consumption reached 9.46 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [12] - Power Generation: Cumulative power generation in the first eleven months of 2025 was 8.86 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [22] - Installed Capacity: As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power reached 1.52 billion kW, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [44] - Hydropower: The cumulative installed capacity of hydropower reached 440 million kW, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [54]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first week of 2026, the bond market experienced significant adjustments. The main reasons were that the central bank's open - market bond purchases in December 2025 were only 50 billion yuan, not increasing as expected, and the stock market had a strong start, causing funds to flow from the bond market to the stock market. The "stock - bond seesaw" effect was the more important factor suppressing the bond market. It is expected that the allocation funds in the bond market will be diverted by the stock market. In the next week, the release of December's financial data is expected to have limited impact on the bond market. Short - term interest rates will remain stable, while long - term interest rates are more affected by the stock market, and the yield curve is expected to steepen. When the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches the 1.9% stage high, investors can enter the market at an appropriate time [1][16][17] - Last week, gold in the cross - year market quickly rebounded to the previous high of $4,500 per ounce after a short - term plunge and is about to break through the previous high. The RMB exchange rate also had a short - term correction, but based on the expectation of loose fiscal and monetary policies in major global economies and their higher tendency of fiscal deficit monetization than China, the previous bullish view is continued. Crude oil is marginally bullish in terms of total demand and short - term bullish but long - term bearish in terms of total supply, and is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern [2] - In the medium - term thinking framework, the two - sector model of "an overheated technology sector + a cold traditional sector" should be continued. The growth engine shows structural characteristics, with monetary policy supporting the traditional sector and fiscal policy guiding the technology sector. The driving force of investment is greater than that of consumption, and domestic demand is more important than external demand, which is not limited to specific transitional economies [2][20] - The US unemployment rate in December 2026 slightly decreased, but new employment was lower than expected. The number of non - farm payrolls also decreased, and the labor market is gradually entering a low - speed equilibrium stage, which makes the Fed more inclined to maintain the current interest rate level. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is 24.4%, which is relatively low [4][21][26] Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week Viewpoints - **Analysis of bond market adjustment in the first week of 2026**: From December 31, 2025, to January 9, 2026, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond rose 1.8bp. Through daily analysis, factors such as the relaxation of bond fund redemption fee regulations, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect, the central bank's bond - buying volume, and market expectations all affected the bond market. The main reasons for the bond market adjustment were the central bank's bond - buying volume in December 2025 not meeting expectations and the strong start of the stock market [1][11][16] - **Analysis of future trends**: The release of December's financial data is expected to have limited impact on the bond market. Short - term interest rates will remain stable, long - term interest rates are more affected by the stock market, and the yield curve is expected to steepen. When the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches 1.9%, investors can enter the market [1][16][17] 2. Summary of Domestic and Foreign Data 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - market operations**: From January 5 to 9, 2026, the net investment in open - market operations showed a large - scale net withdrawal in the early stage and a net investment in the later stage. The total amount of net investment was - 122.14 billion yuan [36] - **Interest rate data**: The money market interest rate decreased last week compared with the previous week. The issuance volume of interest - rate bonds last week was 918.813 billion yuan, and the total repayment amount was 697.556 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 221.257 billion yuan [37][38][41] 2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Commodity price data**: Steel prices generally rose, and the official prices of LME non - ferrous metal futures all increased. The price of rebar rose by 17 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coils rose by 20 yuan/ton. The prices of zinc, lead, copper, and aluminum futures all increased to varying degrees [55] 3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance scale and type**: Last week, 26 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 117.664 billion yuan, including 29.23 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, 87.434 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 1 billion yuan of new general bonds. The net financing amount was 117.664 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive projects [65] - **Issuing regions**: Three provinces and cities issued local government bonds, and two provinces and cities issued local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts, with a total issuance amount of 29.23 billion yuan. From January 1 to last week, the total amount of local special refinancing special bonds issued nationwide was 2,202.521 billion yuan [69] - **Early redemption of urban investment bonds**: The total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds last week was 1.33 billion yuan, from Zhejiang and Gansu provinces. From November 15, 2024, to last week, the total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds nationwide was 118.207 billion yuan, with Chongqing having the highest redemption scale [75][79] 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - **Transaction volume and turnover rate**: The stock of local government bonds last week was 54.73 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 310.211 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.57%. The top three provinces in terms of trading activity were Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu, and the top three trading - active maturities were 30Y, 10Y, and 7Y [82] - **Yield to maturity**: The yield to maturity of local government bonds decreased across the board last week [87] 3.3 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for this Month - Not elaborated in detail, only a chart of the issuance plan is provided [88] 4. One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Total issuance and net financing amount**: Last week, 336 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 269.892 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 138.743 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 131.149 billion yuan, an increase of 192.849 billion yuan compared with the previous week [88] - **Issuance by type**: The net financing amount of urban investment bonds was 28.226 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 102.923 billion yuan. By bond type, the net financing amount of short - term financing bills was 38.817 billion yuan, that of medium - term notes was 47.129 billion yuan, that of enterprise bonds was - 2.881 billion yuan, that of corporate bonds was 45.019 billion yuan, and that of private placement notes was 3.065 billion yuan [90][93] 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rates of short - term financing bills decreased by 4.43bp, those of medium - term notes increased by 11.93bp, and those of corporate bonds decreased by 58.69bp [103] 4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The total trading volume of credit bonds last week was 558.53 billion yuan, with short - term financing bills having a trading volume of 159.816 billion yuan, medium - term notes having a trading volume of 294.315 billion yuan, enterprise bonds having a trading volume of 11.128 billion yuan, corporate bonds having a trading volume of 38.844 billion yuan, and private placement notes having a trading volume of 54.428 billion yuan [103] 4.4 Yield to Maturity - The yield to maturity of state - owned development bonds increased across the board. The yields of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the yields of enterprise bonds generally increased, and the yields of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [104][105][106] 4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes narrowed across the board, the credit spreads of enterprise bonds generally showed a differentiated trend, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds narrowed across the board [108][109][113] 4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the grade spreads of enterprise bonds showed a differentiated trend, and the grade spreads of urban investment bonds narrowed across the board [115][119][123] 4.7 Trading Activity - The most actively traded credit bonds last week were mainly from large - scale enterprises such as Yili and Huijin. The industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, followed by public utilities, finance, daily consumption, and materials [127] 4.8 Issuer's Rating Changes - Not elaborated in detail, only a table of issuer's rating or outlook improvement is provided [128]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xianle Health [1] Core Insights - Xianle Health is a leading CDMO enterprise in the health supplement industry, focusing on the research and manufacturing of health and functional foods. The company has a strong R&D capability and has established a global supply chain through acquisitions [8][13][14] - The health supplement industry is experiencing a new consumption cycle, with significant growth potential in China. The global health supplement market is projected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 5% from 2024 to 2028 [44][49] - The report highlights the company's revenue and net profit growth, with a CAGR of 18% from 2012 to 2024. The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for health supplements and the expansion of its overseas markets [23][28] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Xianle Health has become a top player in the health supplement CDMO sector, with a market share of 8% as of 2023. The company has a comprehensive production capability across various forms of health supplements [14][23] - The company has a stable ownership structure, with the largest shareholder holding 42.60% of the shares, ensuring stability in management [17] 2. Health Supplement Industry - The health supplement market is characterized by regional differentiation, with North America, China, and Europe being the largest markets. The industry is expected to grow significantly, particularly in China, where the market size could double from 250 billion yuan to 520 billion yuan by 2028 [44][49] - The CDMO segment is expected to benefit from the fragmented nature of the health supplement industry, with a projected market size of 220-250 billion yuan by 2024, growing at a rate of 7-9% from 2024 to 2028 [60] 3. Financial Projections - The report adjusts the revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 45.22 billion yuan, 50.44 billion yuan, and 56.36 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.53 billion yuan, 4.05 billion yuan, and 4.77 billion yuan [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.82 yuan, 1.32 yuan, and 1.55 yuan for 2025-2027, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 30x, 19x, and 16x [1][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the commercialization of RoboTaxi, with a clear path towards profitability as it benefits from policy openings and technological advancements [7][8]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a projected increase in total revenue from 554.64 million yuan in 2025 to 1,987.24 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 110.26% [1]. - The company has a strong cash reserve of 5.4 billion yuan, which supports its research and development efforts and expansion plans [7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Analysis - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 401.84 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 23.83%. However, it is expected to rebound with a growth of 53.58% in 2025 and 70.41% in 2026 [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to improve from a loss of 2.517 billion yuan in 2024 to a loss of 1.055 billion yuan in 2027 [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -2.45 yuan in 2024 to -1.03 yuan in 2027 [1]. Industry Overview - The RoboTaxi market is anticipated to reach a scale of 200 billion yuan by 2030, capturing approximately 36% of the B-end shared mobility market [7][8]. - The company is the only entity globally to have obtained autonomous driving licenses in eight countries, showcasing its leading position in the industry [7]. - The report highlights the significant reduction in costs associated with autonomous driving technology, with the BOM cost dropping below 300,000 yuan, enhancing the profitability outlook for RoboTaxi operations [7][8]. Technological Edge - The company utilizes a multi-sensor fusion approach, integrating various technologies to enhance safety and reliability in autonomous driving [7][8]. - The development of the WeRideOne platform is central to the company's competitive advantage, enabling efficient autonomous driving solutions across multiple scenarios [7][8]. Market Positioning - The company has established a robust presence in both domestic and international markets, with successful operations in major cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, and various locations in the Middle East [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing market share in developed regions, where the potential for RoboTaxi services is significantly higher compared to China [7][8].