证券研究报告·公司深度研究·电池 天赐材料（002709） 电解液盈利乘势而起，固态材料执笔未来 2025 年 12 月 23 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 15,405 | 12,518 | 15,664 | 30,031 | 37,609 | | 同比（%） | (30.97) | (18.74) | 25.13 | 91.71 | 25.23 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,890.62 | 483.93 | 1,221.48 | 6,490.01 | 7,858.11 | | 同比（%） | (66.92) | (74.40) | 152.41 | 431.32 | 21.08 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.93 | 0.24 | 0.60 | 3.19 | 3.86 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 41.77 | 163.20 | 64.66 | 12.1 ...

Group 1 - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market may experience a short-term rally, but it is advisable to maintain a cautious stance. The current position is considered attractive for medium to long-term allocation [1] - There are indications of a potential "Christmas rally" in the US stock market, particularly in technology stocks, which may resonate with Hong Kong's tech sector. However, the unlocking of shares may still create disturbances in the Hong Kong market [1][3] - The report expresses concerns about the potential for a pullback in US tech stocks in January, influenced by the IEEPA Act's legal challenges and cautious investor sentiment regarding upcoming earnings reports [1][2] Group 2 - The US stock market showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.5% and the Dow Jones falling by 0.7%. The report highlights that materials and financial sectors led the gains, while energy and consumer staples lagged [1] - Inflation data from November indicates a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, lower than expected, with core CPI rising by 2.6%, suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures [2] - The employment market in the US continues to cool, with November non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, but the unemployment rate has risen to its highest level since September 2021 [2] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the revival of confidence in AI, citing strong earnings from Micron, which saw a 69% increase in DRAM chip revenue, indicating sustained demand for AI components [3] - TikTok's agreement to sell its US operations to a consortium led by Oracle and Silver Lake is noted as a positive development for Oracle's cloud service revenue, providing stability for its non-AI business [3] - The report anticipates a seasonal increase in market activity as the holiday season approaches, with a decrease in volatility and a potential for a "Christmas rally" [6][7] Group 4 - The report indicates that the US stock market is expected to return to a trajectory driven by economic fundamentals and corporate earnings resilience, with macro policies supporting strong economic growth [7] - The report discusses the ongoing investment in AI as a catalyst for tech sector prosperity, suggesting that the current market rally is primarily driven by sustained profit growth rather than speculative bubbles [7] - The report notes that gold ETFs have seen mixed inflows, with SPDR Gold Trust experiencing a $374 million increase, while other ETFs saw outflows, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards gold [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [55]. Core Insights - The bus industry is positioned to become a global leader in technology output, with overseas market contributions expected to replicate the scale of the Chinese market within 3-5 years [2]. - Key drivers include favorable national policies, advanced technology and product quality, and a recovering domestic market without price wars [2]. - The report recommends focusing on Yutong and King Long as preferred stocks within the bus sector, both rated as "Buy" [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In November 2025, the overall production of the bus industry in China reached 55,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 14.90% and 10.47% respectively [10][11]. - The wholesale volume for the same period was 53,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.78% and a month-on-month increase of 7.28% [10][11]. Company Performance - Yutong's projected net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to grow by 20% annually, reaching 4.94 billion, 5.92 billion, and 7.03 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [4]. - King Long is anticipated to show significant profit recovery, with net profits projected at 440 million, 640 million, and 830 million yuan for the same period, reflecting growth rates of 182%, 45%, and 28% respectively, also rated as "Buy" [4]. Market Dynamics - The domestic market has seen an end to price wars, which is expected to positively impact demand, driven by tourism recovery and public transport upgrades [2]. - The report highlights that the bus industry is on track to challenge previous market peaks from 2015-2017, with potential for new growth ceilings [6]. Sales and Exports - In November 2025, the total sales of buses reached 49,000 units, with significant increases in both wholesale and terminal sales across various bus types [10][13]. - Exports of large and medium buses totaled 4,294 units in November, marking a year-on-year increase of 25% and a month-on-month increase of 12% [35][36]. Regional Performance - Bus sales showed strong seasonal trends, with most regions experiencing year-on-year increases in November 2025, particularly notable in Northeast and South China [24]. - The report indicates that the market concentration remains high, with leading companies like Yutong and King Long maintaining significant market shares in both domestic and export markets [30][36].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·家电零部件Ⅱ 三花智控（002050） 2025 年业绩预告点评：业绩略超市场预期， 机器人量产在即 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 24,558 | 27,947 | 33,505 | 40,056 | 50,683 | | 同比（%） | 15.04 | 13.80 | 19.89 | 19.55 | 26.53 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,921 | 3,099 | 4,210 | 5,093 | 6,794 | | 同比（%） | 13.51 | 6.10 | 35.85 | 20.98 | 33.39 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.69 | 0.74 | 1.00 | 1.21 | 1.61 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 65.43 | 61.67 | 45.40 | 37.52 | 28.13 | [Table_Tag] [T ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is a leading supplier of electric bicycle motors in China, with a mature global layout primarily focused on the European and American markets. It has developed a comprehensive product line including electric bicycle motors, integrated wheel motors, kits, and batteries, enhancing its core competitiveness [7][8] - In Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.034 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 67 million yuan, up 30.52% year-on-year. In Q3 2025 alone, revenue reached 391 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.26%, and net profit was 35 million yuan, a staggering increase of 5640.96% [7][8] - The report indicates that the end of inventory destocking has led to a recovery in demand, and internal cost-cutting measures have contributed to better-than-expected performance [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 1,648 million yuan - 2024: 1,357 million yuan - 2025: 1,474 million yuan - 2026: 1,696 million yuan - 2027: 1,959 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected to be -42.18% in 2023, -17.66% in 2024, 8.61% in 2025, 15.11% in 2026, and 15.50% in 2027 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 127.86 million yuan - 2024: 63.85 million yuan - 2025: 93.88 million yuan - 2026: 123.23 million yuan - 2027: 145.41 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected to be -75.03% in 2023, -50.06% in 2024, 47.04% in 2025, 31.26% in 2026, and 18.00% in 2027 [1] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 21.8%, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 2025 gross margin was 21.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. This improvement is attributed to demand recovery and economies of scale, despite a decline in the proportion of high-margin mid-mounted motors [14] - The report highlights significant cost control, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios decreasing year-on-year [14] Long-term Market Outlook - The report suggests that after the end of inventory destocking, a new cycle may begin, with a long-term market potential remaining vast. The overall inventory level in overseas markets has decreased significantly, although demand recovery for electric bicycles is slow due to the overall economic downturn in Europe. The company is seizing market opportunities and actively supporting customer solutions, which is expected to drive business growth [14] - The report anticipates that the penetration rate of electric bicycles will continue to rise, indicating sustained demand for the company's comprehensive product offerings [14] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains net profit forecasts of 94 million yuan for 2025 and 123 million yuan for 2026, with an expected net profit of 145 million yuan for 2027, reflecting growth rates of 47%, 31%, and 18% respectively. Corresponding P/E ratios are projected at 73x, 56x, and 47x [15]

Group 1: Convertible Bonds Market - The convertible bond market in 2025 is characterized by a "dual hit" of parity and premium rates, indicating a high beta market environment [1][12] - For 2026, the positioning of convertible bonds should shift from "equity replacement" to "debt market supplementary yield" due to high valuations and strong redemption tendencies [1][12] - The trading logic in the underlying stock market is changing, with a transition from "0-1" to "1-N" in technology growth, leading to more differentiated performance in convertible bonds [1][12] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - The relationship between gold ETF demand and gold prices indicates that for every additional ton of investment demand, gold prices increase by $0.46/oz [2][14] - Central bank gold purchases explain 92.78% of the residual changes in gold prices, suggesting a strong support for upward price movement [2][14] - The traditional pricing framework for gold has shifted, with central bank demand now playing a more significant role compared to ETF demand [2][14] Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is preparing for a potential spring rally, with a macro timing model scoring -2 for December, indicating a probability of adjustment but limited downside [4][21] - The technology growth sector is expected to regain attractiveness after adjustments in November, although new capital inflows may take time [4][21] - The A500 ETF has seen significant inflows, indicating confidence among large investors at the market's relative bottom [4][21] Group 4: Industry-Specific Insights - 澜起科技 (Lianqi Technology) is a leading company in memory interface chips, focusing on high-performance solutions for cloud computing and AI, and is one of the top three DDR5 manufacturers globally [9][10] - 华盛锂电 (Huasheng Lithium) is a leading domestic electrolyte additive company expanding into new fields like lithium sulfide, with an upward competitive edge [9][10] - 五粮液 (Wuliangye) is focusing on marketing innovation and channel optimization to enhance market share and ensure stable long-term development amidst industry adjustments [11][10]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the convertible bond market in 2025 is expected to experience a "double hit" of parity and premium rates, transitioning from "equity replacement" to "debt market supplementary income" in 2026 [1][2] - The report anticipates that the supply of convertible bonds will continue to shrink by 5.3% to 27.6% in 2026, with a notable increase in the issuance of convertible bonds from the ChiNext board, which may provide quality supply in the next two years [1][8] - Demand for convertible bonds is driven by the pursuit of elastic products, with significant growth in the scale of secondary bond funds and the potential for primary bond funds to increase their positions [1][19] Group 2 - The valuation outlook suggests that the premium rate for convertible bonds may not significantly rise, as the current 30% premium rate implies expectations of at least a 30% increase in the underlying stock [1][36] - The report highlights that the convertible bond market may see localized profit opportunities, particularly if the underlying stock market maintains a slow bull trend, with a focus on sectors such as technology and new energy [1][42] - The strategy for 2026 emphasizes the importance of focusing on industry rotation and individual bond marginal changes, recommending a concentrated position in core alpha opportunities [1][48]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 #大类资产 证券分析师 芦哲 技术帖：如何量化央行购金对金价的影响？ 2025 年 12 月 22 日 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 《政策退坡和基数抬升下商品消费延 续承压》 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 《降息交易陷入纠结，市场静待"圣 诞老人"行情》 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 2025-12-21 2025-12-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 10 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：我们根据过去黄金 ETF 规模与金价的线性关系倒推出金价 隐含的黄金 ETF 需求。统计结果显示，投资需求每增加 1 吨，金价上涨 0.46$/oz。2023 年以来，二者残差不断扩大，我们发现全球央行购金行 为可解释 92.78%的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1] Core Insights - The 2026 National Energy Work Conference was held to summarize 2025 and outline key tasks for 2026, focusing on high-quality energy planning, energy security, green transformation, technological independence, and international cooperation [4][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of signing and fulfilling long-term electricity contracts for 2026, with specific guidelines for coal-fired power generation contracts [4] - Key industry data shows a stable increase in electricity consumption and generation, with a notable rise in renewable energy installations [4][13][21] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The SW utility index decreased by 0.59% from December 15 to December 19, 2025, with mixed performance across sub-sectors [9] - The report highlights a 5.1% year-on-year increase in total electricity consumption for the first ten months of 2025, reaching 8.62 trillion kWh [13] - Cumulative electricity generation for the same period was 8.06 trillion kWh, reflecting a 2.3% year-on-year growth [21] Electricity Pricing - The average electricity purchase price in November 2025 was 401 RMB/MWh, down 2% year-on-year but up 2.8% month-on-month [36] Coal Pricing - As of December 19, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 703 RMB/ton, a decrease of 8.7% year-on-year and 5.64% week-on-week [45] Hydropower Data - The Three Gorges Reservoir's water level was 171.37 meters as of December 19, 2025, with inflow and outflow rates showing a year-on-year decrease [53][64] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on green energy companies such as Longyuan Power, Zhongmin Energy, and Three Gorges Energy, while also recommending traditional power companies like Huaneng International and Huadian International for their reliability and flexibility [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Views - The environmental protection industry is expected to benefit from tightening nickel quotas in Indonesia and increasing demand for air pollution control, particularly for companies like Longjing Environmental [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" for achieving carbon neutrality and improving air quality, indicating a shift from end-of-pipe treatment to structural reduction [10][11] - The report highlights the growth potential in the waste management sector, particularly in overseas markets, and the expected acceleration in revenue recognition for companies like Weiming Environmental [19][21] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The environmental protection industry is projected to experience a value and growth resonance driven by dual carbon goals [21] - The report notes a significant increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, with a 61.32% year-on-year growth in the first ten months of 2025 [27] - The average price of biodiesel has decreased, leading to a decline in profit margins [39] Key Recommendations - Recommended companies include Longjing Environmental, Weiming Environmental, and others that are positioned to benefit from stricter air quality standards and increased demand for environmental services [1][21] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong cash flow and market positioning in the water services sector, such as Yuehai Investment and Xingrong Environment [22] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the tightening of nickel quotas in Indonesia could support nickel prices, benefiting companies involved in nickel production and processing [18] - The report also discusses the expected growth in the waste-to-energy sector in Indonesia, with significant investments planned for waste incineration plants [19] Financial Performance - Longjing Environmental reported a 1.1% year-on-year increase in new environmental equipment contracts, with a total of 76.26 billion yuan in new contracts for the first three quarters of 2025 [13] - The report projects that the free cash flow for the water services sector will improve significantly, enhancing dividend potential and PE valuation [22]