Group 1: Long-term Value - The report emphasizes the defensive value of dividend assets in the Hong Kong stock market, showcasing their resilience amid market volatility, with a return drawdown ratio of 2.4 times [1][11] - Policy support has significantly increased the attractiveness of dividend assets, with A-share companies enhancing their dividend distributions, injecting long-term valuation momentum into these assets [1][16] - There is a sustained demand for long-term capital allocation from insurance funds, which are expected to continue flowing into dividend assets due to their stable returns and matching duration needs [1][17] - The report highlights that Hong Kong dividend assets outperform A-shares, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Index yielding 6.7%, while state-owned enterprises (SOEs) show higher dividend yields compared to other sectors [1][24][25] Group 2: Mid-term Opportunities - The report anticipates a resurgence of dividend style excess returns in the second half of next year, as macro uncertainties may increase, favoring dividend stocks over growth stocks [2][41] - In the first half of the year, growth stocks are expected to dominate due to favorable liquidity conditions and sector trends, particularly in AI and technology [2][34] - The report suggests that the attractiveness of dividend stocks will increase as long-term interest rates decline, enhancing their appeal and potentially leading to valuation increases [2][41] Group 3: Investment Analysis of the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index - The index focuses on high-dividend SOEs within the Hong Kong Stock Connect, reflecting the overall performance of these companies [3][11] - Since 2020, the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index has achieved a cumulative return of 40.4%, outperforming both A/H broad indices and similar products [3][11] - The index is heavily weighted towards quality large-cap SOEs in sectors like energy and telecommunications, providing a differentiated investment opportunity compared to A/H market indices [3][13] - The strong dividend-paying capacity of the index is expected to be reinforced by ongoing policies aimed at enhancing the valuation of SOEs [3][15] Group 4: Product Introduction - The Invesco Great Wall National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF offers investors a tool to gain exposure to the Hong Kong SOE dividend sector, with a fund size of 5.62 billion yuan as of December 26, 2025 [4][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the insurance sector [1]. Core Insights - The report discusses the evolution of participating insurance in China, highlighting its significance in a low-interest-rate environment and the shift towards floating yield products, which are gaining traction among domestic investors [2][6]. Summary by Sections 1. What is Participating Insurance? - Participating insurance is a type of insurance that combines protection and investment, allowing policyholders to share in the insurer's surplus [12]. - The operational mechanism involves sharing profits derived from better-than-expected performance, with a minimum of 70% of the surplus distributed to policyholders [6][15]. 2. Historical Development of Participating Insurance in Mainland China - The development of participating insurance has seen significant fluctuations influenced by policy and market factors, with its market share peaking at 75% in 2010 before declining due to market reforms [6][45]. - Since 2024, regulatory policies have encouraged the development of floating yield products, marking a consensus in the industry towards transitioning to participating insurance [6][45]. 3. Current Transition of Participating Insurance - The report anticipates that the proportion of participating insurance will continue to rise, with over 50% of new policies in the first half of 2025 being participating insurance [6][45]. - The transition is expected to alleviate pressure from interest rate losses and enhance the reliability of the insurance sector's embedded value (EV) [6][45]. 4. International Experience - In mature markets, floating yield products dominate, with Hong Kong's participating insurance being a core component, accounting for 85% of new premiums in 2024 [2][6]. - The report suggests that the characteristics of participating insurance in Hong Kong, such as multi-currency support and a design of low guarantees with high floating returns, could serve as a model for the mainland market [2][6]. 5. Key Metrics for Evaluating Participating Insurance - The report outlines four key indicators for assessing the performance of participating insurance: 1. **Guaranteed Rate**: Currently set at 1.75%, which is lower than traditional insurance [23]. 2. **Demonstration Rate**: Reflects expected returns, with current rates around 3.5% to 4% [24]. 3. **Actual Yield**: The industry average is capped at 3.2%, with some companies exceeding this limit [27]. 4. **Dividend Realization Rate**: Increased by 11 percentage points to 62% in 2024, indicating improved management and expectation guidance [29].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20251230 超万亿美元贸易顺差流向哪里？ 2025 年 12 月 30 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《以史为鉴：鲍威尔成为美联储"太 上皇"的尾部风险有多大？》 2025-12-29 《12 月出口增速预计将小幅回落》 2025-12-28 东吴证券研究所 1 / 12 ◼ 出口企业的贸易顺差并不必然带动等额外汇储备的增加，在境内外融资 利差、资产收益率等因素的影响下，企业在"赚来"美元之后，"留存" 境外市场一部分，通过境内银行流入国内结汇成人民币一部分、以外汇 存款方式持有一部分，并以资本和金融账户为基础渠道，逐步累积起厂 房设备、股票和债券、贸易贷款等海外净资产头寸。 ◼ 商品贸易"赚来多少"：近 6 年内高达 4.9 万亿美元。从 2020 年至 2025 年 11 月 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Insights - The successful grid connection of the second phase of the Guyana solar-storage project and the ongoing progress of overseas green electricity projects are key highlights [8] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for air pollution control equipment, with a projected net profit growth of 63.15% in 2024 and continued growth in subsequent years [8] - The company has a strong order backlog of 19.7 billion, which is expected to accelerate revenue recognition [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to decline by 7.64% in 2023, followed by a recovery with a growth of 20.74% in 2025 [8][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 508.97 million in 2023, increasing to 1.23 billion by 2025, representing a growth of 48.33% [8][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.40 in 2023 to 0.97 in 2025 [8][9] Market Position - The company is positioned as the largest manufacturer of air pollution control equipment globally, benefiting from market demand driven by new construction and upgrades in the power and non-power sectors [8] - The company has successfully completed five international projects this year, enhancing its strategic layout in the mining equipment sector [8]

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·计算机 计算机行业深度报告 关注地方国企资本运作——国企改革和地方 增收的交汇点 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 12 月 30 日 证券分析师 王紫敬 执业证书：S0600521080005 021-60199781 wangzj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 2024/12/30 2025/4/30 2025/8/29 2025/12/28 计算机 沪深300 相关研究 《梳理 SpaceX 的 A 股供应商》 2025-12-29 《商业航天 还有哪 些事件 值得期 待？》 2025-12-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 土地财政规模承压，盘活存量资产。地方财政收入来源一共"四本账"， 其中国有土地使用权出让收入一直是地方财政收入的重要来源，而 2022 年以来，土地财政收入规模承压，因此 2022 年开始，国家和地方都陆 续出台了各项政策和措施提升土地使用权出让以外的财政收入，路径 ...

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·计算机 计算机行业深度报告 太空算力：苍穹之上的下一代计算范式 2025 年 12 月 30 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 执业证书：S0600521080005 021-60199781 wangzj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王世杰 执业证书：S0600523080004 wangshijie@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 2024/12/30 2025/4/30 2025/8/29 2025/12/28 计算机 沪深300 相关研究 《梳理 SpaceX 的 A 股供应商》 2025-12-29 《商业航天 还有哪 些事件 值得期 待？》 2025-12-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 证券分析师 王紫敬 ◼ 太空算力是构建于地球轨道上的下一代分布式计算范式。将数据中心的 核心硬件部署于太空，形成轨道级 AI 基础设施，实现数据在采集源头 完成处理与分析，从而将卫星从传统的"数据下行中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry, specifically focusing on the waste incineration sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the dual drivers of improved operating cash flow in the waste incineration sector: a decrease in capital expenditure and accelerated national subsidies. Since 2023, the sector has seen an improvement in free cash flow and dividend capacity primarily due to reduced capital expenditures [3][5]. - The report estimates that when capital expenditures reach maintenance levels (1.5% of total assets), the dividend potential for 2024 could be as high as 141% [3]. - The national subsidy recovery is expected to accelerate significantly in 2025, with a projected average recovery rate of around 89%, up from 39% in 2024 [3][21]. Summary by Sections 1. National Subsidy Recovery for Waste Incineration - The average account period for national subsidies is stable at around 2 years, with a slowdown in the growth of outstanding payments [8][10]. - The national subsidy recovery rate for the waste incineration sector has improved significantly, with a single-quarter operating cash flow net amount of 6.33 billion RMB in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 59% [13][15]. - Companies like Guangda Environment and Huanlan Environment have reported substantial improvements in subsidy recovery, with Guangda receiving approximately 20.64 billion RMB in subsidies from July to August 2025 [14][20]. 2. Renewable Energy Subsidy Fund - The renewable energy development fund is expected to reach a balance between income and expenditure around 2025, allowing for the gradual clearance of outstanding subsidies [24][25]. - The fund's income has been steadily increasing, while expenditure has reached its limit, indicating a potential for future surplus [24][25]. - By 2036, it is anticipated that historical outstanding subsidies will be resolved naturally as the pressure from subsidy expenditures decreases [25]. 3. Dividend Potential Assessment - The report calculates that the dividend potential for the waste incineration sector could rise from 114% to 141% with the acceleration of national subsidy recovery [3][19]. - The improvement in cash flow from national subsidies is expected to enhance the cash flow value of the sector, supporting the logic of increasing dividends and return on equity (ROE) [3][19]. - Key companies recommended for investment based on their dividend value include Huanlan Environment, Green Power, and Guangda Environment [3].

Macro Strategy - The report highlights the potential risk of Jerome Powell becoming a "de facto emperor" of the Federal Reserve, as he may choose to remain on the board after his term as chair ends, thereby influencing monetary policy despite a new chair being appointed [1][9][10] - The market is expected to react to Powell's potential decision, leading to a short-term narrative of dollar credit recovery, impacting the dollar index, U.S. stocks, and short-term Treasury yields positively, while gold and commodities may face downward pressure [1][9] Economic Indicators - The report anticipates a slight decline in December export growth, with infrastructure work showing a seasonal rebound in mid to late December [11][12] - The ECI supply index is reported at 49.93%, indicating a marginal decrease, while the demand index remains stable at 49.84%, suggesting a slowdown in economic activity [11][12] Industry Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming market conditions [2][16] - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a growing investment theme, particularly with the increasing recognition of satellite ETFs [2][16] Company Insights - Qianfang Technology (002373) is noted for its advancements in autonomous logistics, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 340 million, 496 million, and 680 million yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [7] - Dongfang Cable (603606) has secured significant contracts totaling 9.55 billion yuan for green transmission facilities and 19 billion yuan for high-voltage submarine cables, indicating strong growth potential in the Southeast Asian market [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, particularly highlighting the potential of AI-driven vehicles and related technologies [1][3]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is at a crossroads, transitioning from electric vehicle benefits to a focus on intelligent vehicles and robotics innovation [3]. - Key developments include the collaboration between Xiaopeng Motors and Peking University on the FastDrive VLA model, which addresses significant challenges in autonomous driving [2][3]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in the penetration of L3 and L2+ intelligent driving technologies by 2025, with expected market growth driven by major players like Tesla and Huawei [48][49]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - This week, the automotive sector outperformed the market, with passenger vehicles and auto parts showing the best performance, increasing by 3.3% [2][3]. - The report notes that the automotive sector ranked 11th in A-shares and 18th in Hong Kong stocks this week [7][9]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment themes: AI smart vehicles, robotics, and traditional vehicle segments benefiting from favorable market conditions [3]. - Key investment targets include: - **AI Smart Vehicles**: Focus on Robotaxi and Robovan models, with companies like Tesla, Xiaopeng, and Horizon Robotics highlighted [3]. - **Robotics**: Emphasis on component suppliers and companies involved in the development of humanoid robots and related technologies [54][60]. - **Traditional Vehicles**: Companies like Yutong Bus and China National Heavy Duty Truck are expected to benefit from ongoing demand and favorable policies [50][53]. Sales Forecasts - The report projects that domestic retail sales of passenger vehicles will reach 23.62 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [45]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to increase to 55.4% by 2025, with significant growth in both domestic and export markets [49][53]. Key Companies and Developments - Notable companies mentioned include Xiaopeng Motors, Ideal Auto, and Horizon Robotics, with significant advancements in technology and profitability reported [3][59]. - The report highlights the importance of strategic partnerships and technological advancements in driving future growth within the sector [60].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·公用事业 公用事业行业跟踪周报 25M11 全社会用电同比+6.2%，促进光热发 电规模化发展 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：需求不及预期、电价煤价波动风险、流域来水不及预期等 2025 年 12 月 29 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600522030002 renyx@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 2024/12/30 2025/4/29 2025/8/27 2025/12/25 公用事业 沪深300 相关研究 《2026 年全国能源工作会议召开，做 好 2026 年电力中长期合同签约履约》 2025-12-22 《气温偏高美国气价继续回落，库存 提取欧洲气价微增，25M11 国内用气 需求边际改善》 2025-12-22 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 任逸轩 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周核心观点：1） ...