证券研究报告·行业点评报告·通信 通信行业点评报告 2026 年通信投资机会梳理：算力为核，卫星 为翼 2026 年 01 月 04 日 证券分析师 欧子兴 执业证书：S0600525110002 ouzx@dwzq.com.cn -9% 2% 13% 24% 35% 46% 57% 68% 79% 90% 101% 2025/1/3 2025/5/3 2025/8/31 2025/12/29 通信 沪深300 相关研究 《 AI 算力方案多点开花，继续看好 光互联方向》 2025-11-27 《AI 算力跟踪深度（四）：怎么看算力 的天花板和成长性？》 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025-10-16 东吴证券研究所 1 / 3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 行业走势 ◼ 光互联核心受益海外算力与国内算力需求共振。展望 2026 年，海外算 力链将保持景气度向上。北美 CSP 对资本开支保持高投入预期，数据中 心建设热情高涨，以英伟达 GPU 和谷歌 TPU 为代表的算力芯片都在快 速上量，更下一代产品也将在 2026 年开始商用，与之配套的光互联全 ...

Group 1 - The "Spring Market" is gradually unfolding, with both internal and external environments showing positive changes, including favorable macroeconomic conditions and supportive policies [2][3] - The report suggests that the focus for investment should be on growth sectors, particularly those related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to attract significant capital [3][4] - Key investment directions for January include AI industry chains, emerging industries, and cyclical price increases in industrial metals and chemicals [6][7] Group 2 - The report highlights specific companies as top investment picks, including North China Innovation (机械), Maiwei Co., Ltd. (机械), Wanhua Chemical (能源化工), Chipbond Technology (电子), Ping An Insurance (非银), Zijin Mining (煤炭有色钢铁), Giant Network (传媒互联网), AVIC High-Tech (军工), Sanhua Intelligent Control (电新), and Kaiter (北交所) [7][11] - North China Innovation is expected to benefit from increased domestic equipment adoption and the expansion of storage and AI chip production [14][20] - Maiwei Co., Ltd. is positioned to capitalize on the U.S. solar expansion due to a significant gap in battery production capacity [23][30] - Wanhua Chemical is projected to strengthen its market position in MDI and TDI, with expected price increases due to supply constraints [33][35] - Chipbond Technology is set to benefit from the growing demand for PCB and semiconductor equipment driven by AI [41][42] - Ping An Insurance is anticipated to maintain strong growth in new business value (NBV) and dividend yield, supported by its insurance operations [45][46] - Zijin Mining is expected to see price increases in gold and copper, with a clear growth path in production [49][50] - Giant Network's game "Supernatural Action Group" is expected to show significant potential for long-term growth and profitability [56][57] - AVIC High-Tech is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for aerospace composite materials as the C919 enters mass production [58][59] - Sanhua Intelligent Control is expected to see growth from its involvement in Tesla's supply chain and the increasing demand for cooling solutions in data centers and energy storage [65][66] - Kaiter is projected to benefit from the automotive electronics sector and its expansion into robotics and liquid cooling markets [72][78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the primary market, from December 29, 2025, to December 31, 2025, 13 green bonds were newly issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets, with a total issuance scale of about 1.3398 billion yuan, a decrease of 936.3 million yuan compared to the previous week [1]. - In the secondary market, the weekly trading volume of green bonds from December 29, 2025, to December 31, 2025, totaled 49 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.5 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Non - financial corporate credit bonds, financial institution bonds, and interest - rate bonds had the top three trading volumes [2]. - In terms of valuation deviation of the top 30 individual bonds, the overall deviation of the weekly trading average price valuation of green bonds was not large. The discount trading amplitude was smaller than the premium trading, and the discount trading proportion was greater than the premium trading [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Primary Market Issuance - **Number and Scale**: 13 green bonds were newly issued, with a total scale of about 1.3398 billion yuan, a decrease of 936.3 million yuan from the previous week [1]. - **Issuance Tenure**: Mostly 2 - year and 24 - year bonds [1]. - **Issuer Nature**: Central state - owned enterprises, local state - owned enterprises, and foreign - owned enterprises [1]. - **Subject Rating**: Mostly AAA and AA+ ratings [1]. - **Issuer Region**: Hubei, Fujian, Anhui, Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Beijing [1]. - **Bond Types**: Medium - term notes, corporate ABS, and private placement corporate bonds [1]. Secondary Market Trading - **Total Trading Volume**: The weekly trading volume was 49 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.5 billion yuan from the previous week [2]. - **By Bond Type**: Non - financial corporate credit bonds (22.3 billion yuan), financial institution bonds (19.9 billion yuan), and interest - rate bonds (5.1 billion yuan) had the top three trading volumes [2]. - **By Issuance Tenure**: Green bonds with a term of less than 3 years had the highest trading volume, accounting for about 85.30% [2]. - **By Issuer Industry**: The top three industries in terms of trading volume were finance (22.1 billion yuan), public utilities (10.9 billion yuan), and transportation (170 million yuan) [2]. - **By Issuer Region**: Beijing (16.1 billion yuan), Guangdong (5.9 billion yuan), and Hubei (4.6 billion yuan) had the top three trading volumes [2]. Valuation Deviation of the Top 30 Individual Bonds - **Overall Situation**: The overall deviation of the weekly trading average price valuation was not large. The discount trading amplitude was smaller than the premium trading, and the discount trading proportion was greater than the premium trading [3]. - **Discount Bonds**: The top three discount bonds were 24 Guangzhou Kaide MTN001B (- 0.6391%), GC Tianhui 03 (- 0.1777%), and 25 Xuzhou Transportation ABN001 Priority (- 0.1698%). The subject industries were mainly real estate, steel, and finance, and the regions were mainly Guizhou, Hebei, and Guangdong [3]. - **Premium Bonds**: The top three premium bonds were 25 Puzhi G3 (1.7539%), 24 Xinyang G1 (0.7196%), and 25 Three Gorges GN010 (0.4792%). The subject industries were mainly finance, public utilities, and energy, and the regions were mainly Guangdong, Hubei, and Beijing [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Insights - The implementation of the third phase of fee reduction for public funds is expected to guide the development of equity funds and mitigate the impact on short-term bond funds [5] - The overall fee reduction is estimated to be around 30 billion yuan, with a reduction rate of approximately 34% [5] - Key changes in the final draft include differentiated exemptions for redemption fees on bond funds and ETFs, encouraging long-term holding by investors [5] - The fee structure for subscription and sales service fees has been adjusted, with significant reductions across various fund types, promoting a more favorable investment environment [5][6] Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission revised the "Management Regulations on Sales Fees for Open-End Securities Investment Funds," which took effect on January 1 [5] - The new regulations lower the maximum subscription and sales service fees for equity and mixed funds, with reductions from 1.2%/1.5% to 0.8%/0.5% respectively [6] Impact on Fund Types - For equity and mixed funds, the new regulations encourage long-term holding by eliminating sales service fees for holdings over one year [7] - Bond funds see a larger fee reduction, with the previous punitive redemption fees being adjusted to improve their attractiveness [7] - Money market funds will continue to charge sales service fees for holdings over one year, but overall fee structures are optimized to enhance yield [7] Fee Reduction Phases - The fee reduction initiative is structured in three phases, cumulatively expected to save investors 50 billion yuan annually [5] - The first phase focused on reducing management and custody fees, while the second phase targeted transaction commission reductions [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the computer industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has introduced a new action plan for the digital RMB, transitioning from a "cash-type 1.0" to a "deposit currency-type 2.0" starting January 1, 2026. This upgrade includes a redefinition of liabilities and a new macro framework [3]. - The new digital RMB framework aims to enhance the management and infrastructure of digital currency, improving liquidity management and regulatory efficiency. It introduces a wallet system based on accounts, a "currency string" for value transfer, and a smart contract ecosystem [3]. - The investment implications suggest that the digital RMB upgrade will drive demand for financial IT services, payment acceptance, and telecom operators, with specific companies recommended for investment [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report highlights a significant upgrade in the digital RMB, which is expected to enhance its role as a core banking liability and infrastructure, moving beyond pilot products to mainstream adoption [3]. Mechanism and Technical Architecture - The new mechanism emphasizes the redefinition of customer balances in commercial banks as liabilities, with a focus on risk management and compliance. The technical architecture includes an upgraded wallet system and smart contracts to facilitate programmable digital payments [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Hengsheng Electronics, Jingbeifang, Changliang Technology, and Yuxin Technology in the financial IT sector. For payment acceptance, companies such as Newland, Lakala, and Hengyin Technology are recommended. Telecom operators like China Telecom, China Unicom, and China Mobile are also highlighted as beneficiaries of the new digital infrastructure [3].

Macro Strategy - The report suggests that despite expectations of a slowdown in marginal fiscal funding for 2026, fiscal spending may still exceed expectations due to two main factors: a rebound in prices leading to increased fiscal revenue and a significant amount of fiscal "surplus" carried over from 2025. Specifically, a 1.8 percentage point increase in PPI could generate approximately 260 billion yuan in additional tax revenue, equivalent to a 0.2 percentage point increase in the deficit ratio. Additionally, the fiscal surplus may exceed 500 billion yuan, potentially enhancing the growth rate of general public budget expenditure by about 2.6 percentage points [1][19]. Industry Insights Electronic Industry - The report highlights that the domestic computing power industry is expected to experience significant growth, particularly in 2026, with domestic computing chip leaders likely entering a performance realization phase. The demand for domestic GPUs is anticipated to benefit from capacity releases due to advanced process expansions. The competition among domestic computing chip participants for market share is expected to drive the importance of AI ASIC service providers within the supply chain. Key recommendations include companies like Cambricon and Shengke Communication [9]. 3D DRAM - The report indicates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for 3D DRAM, driven by the rapid increase in storage demand from AI hardware deployment. The technology is expected to support various applications, including robotics, AIoT, and automotive sectors. The report recommends companies such as GigaDevice and Beijing Junzheng as key players in this space [10]. Insurance Industry - The insurance sector is projected to see improvements in both liabilities and assets, with significant upward valuation potential. The demand for insurance remains strong, and the shift towards dividend insurance is expected to optimize liability costs. The report notes that the current valuation of the insurance sector is at historical lows, suggesting a "buy" rating for the industry [12]. Environmental Industry - The report emphasizes the value of the waste incineration sector, driven by declining capital expenditures and improving operating cash flows. The acceleration of national subsidies is expected to enhance cash flow, with projections indicating that the sector's dividend potential could increase significantly as capital expenditures normalize [16]. Computer Industry - The report discusses the intersection of state-owned enterprise reform and local revenue enhancement, predicting that 2026 will see intensified management of local state-owned enterprises, leading to accelerated capital operations [13][14]. Space Computing - The report identifies the space computing industry as a rapidly evolving field, crucial for addressing global computing resource bottlenecks. It highlights the strategic importance of this sector and recommends focusing on companies with technological advantages in key areas [15]. Green Bonds - The report tracks the issuance of green bonds, noting an increase in issuance and a decrease in trading volume in the secondary market. This reflects the growing interest in sustainable finance and the potential for investment opportunities in this area [4][8]. Capital Market Trends - The report outlines trends in the capital markets, including the performance of various commodities and the impact of macroeconomic factors on pricing. It notes that the copper market is experiencing upward pressure due to supply constraints and demand fluctuations, while aluminum prices are also on the rise due to production capacity increases [11]. AI and Technology - The report forecasts that 2026 will mark the beginning of a new era for AI terminals, with major tech companies expected to launch innovative products. The integration of AI into consumer electronics is anticipated to create new market opportunities [9][18].

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·计算机 计算机行业点评报告 Meta 收购 Manus，AI Agent 新里程碑 2025 年 12 月 31 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 王紫敬 执业证书：S0600521080005 021-60199781 wangzj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 30% 2024/12/31 2025/5/1 2025/8/30 2025/12/29 计算机 沪深300 相关研究 《关注地方国企资本运作——国企改 革和地方增收的交汇点》 2025-12-30 《太空算力：苍穹之上的下一代计算 范式》 2025-12-30 东吴证券研究所 1 / 2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 事件：北京时间 2025 年 12 月 30 日，Meta 官宣收购 Manus。 ◼ Meta 官宣收购 Manus，补齐应用层能力。北京时间 2025 年 12 月 30 日，Meta 官宣将以"数十亿美元"收购 AI 智能体产品 Manus 的开发方 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is accelerating its marketing transformation and further developing multi-channel strategies for 2026. It aims to stabilize the domestic supply of Moutai liquor while clarifying product positioning and pricing [7] - The company plans to focus on two major product categories: the 500ml Flying Moutai and premium products, while reducing the supply of smaller bottle sizes to alleviate channel burdens [7] - A dynamic adjustment of channel distribution is planned, creating a diverse sales model that includes self-sale, distribution, agency, and consignment to better match market demand [7] - The company aims to establish a "2+N" product system for Moutai sauce-flavored liquor, focusing on two core products while ensuring pricing aligns with market demand [7] - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a steady growth in net profit, with expected figures of 90.2 billion, 91 billion, and 92.9 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.5%, 1.0%, and 2.0% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 182.88 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.02% [1] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 71.99 yuan in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 19.30 [1] - The company's total assets are forecasted to grow to 339.72 billion yuan by 2026, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 17.31% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - The electronic industry is expected to experience significant growth driven by advancements in AI technology and the domestic supply chain's maturation, particularly in cloud and edge computing [11][15] - The report highlights the importance of 3D DRAM as a key hardware innovation for AI applications, with expectations for substantial demand growth in 2026 [22][27] - The shift towards high-density interconnects and advanced power supply architectures is crucial for supporting the increasing power density of AI data centers [50][56] Summary by Sections Cloud Computing Power - The domestic computing power supply chain is accelerating, with significant performance releases expected from local manufacturers like Zhongke Shuguang and Huawei [11] - The transition from Scale-Out to Scale-Up networking is enhancing bandwidth and reducing latency, which is critical for AI applications [11] Edge Computing Power - The integration of edge and cloud computing is becoming essential for AI applications, with edge devices benefiting from advancements in SoC technology [15][17] - Companies like Jingchen and Ruixinwei are positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for edge AI solutions [19] 3D DRAM - 3D DRAM is anticipated to become mainstream in 2026, driven by its high bandwidth and low cost, making it essential for various AI applications [22][27] - Companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation are expected to lead in the development of 3D DRAM technologies [28] AI Models - The optimization of AI models is crucial for enhancing performance and user experience, with a focus on local processing capabilities [29][30] - The collaboration between terminal manufacturers and model providers is expected to evolve, shaping the competitive landscape [30][33] AI Terminals - 2026 marks the beginning of a new era for AI terminals, with major companies like Meta, Apple, and Google launching innovative products [34][36] - The development of new terminal forms, such as smart glasses and desktop robots, is expected to drive market growth [34][35] Longxin Chain - Longxin's expansion plans are set to enhance the DRAM supply chain, with a focus on 3D architecture to improve performance and efficiency [38][39] - The company is expected to benefit from increased capital investment and technological advancements [39][41] Wafer Foundry - The domestic wafer foundry industry is entering a new expansion phase, particularly in advanced logic processes [42][43] - Key players like SMIC and Huahong are expected to lead this expansion, addressing the growing demand for advanced chips [44] PCB Industry - The PCB market is poised for growth, driven by the demand for high-performance materials and advanced designs [45][48] - Companies like Shenghong Technology are expected to benefit from the rising demand for AI-related PCB applications [49] Optical-Copper Interconnection - The demand for optical and copper interconnections is increasing, driven by the growth of AI computing clusters [50][52] - Companies such as Changguang Huaxin are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [53] Server Power Supply - The shift to HVDC power supply architectures is becoming essential for AI data centers, addressing the challenges of increasing power density [55][56] - Companies like Oulu Tong are expected to lead in the development of advanced power supply solutions [56]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company, 蘅东光, is a precision device supplier in the optical communication sector, focusing on passive optical devices, with a strong emphasis on expanding production capacity to seize market opportunities [6][11]. - The optical device industry is rapidly developing, driven by the growth of AI, cloud computing, and data centers, which are becoming the core engines of demand for optical communication [6][11]. - The company has a solid foundation in precision manufacturing technology, enabling it to quickly adapt to customer needs and maintain high-quality production [6][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - 蘅东光 specializes in the research, manufacturing, and sales of passive optical devices, with a focus on the AI data center network fiber connection industry [11]. - The company has established a competitive edge in high-density, high-speed passive optical devices, effectively addressing the increasing demands of AI computing [11]. 2. Industry Growth - The optical device market is experiencing significant growth, with the global data center architecture transitioning towards high bandwidth, low latency, and low loss computing networks [6][11]. - The shift in industry focus from precision processing to semiconductor-level micro-nano manufacturing has raised technological barriers, enhancing customer loyalty and market entry barriers [6][11]. 3. Manufacturing and R&D Capabilities - The company has deep technical expertise and integrates R&D with manufacturing, ensuring high-quality product delivery [6][11]. - The company plans to use raised funds for expanding production bases and enhancing R&D capabilities, indicating a balanced and pragmatic approach to growth [6][11]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 21.50 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit expected to be 2.86 billion yuan, reflecting significant growth compared to previous years [4][6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.95 yuan in 2023 to 4.20 yuan in 2025, indicating strong profitability potential [4][6]. 5. Revenue and Profitability Trends - The company’s revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 66.33% from 2022 to 2024, with significant increases in both revenue and net profit during this period [34][36]. - In 2024, 70.34% of the company's revenue is expected to come from passive optical fiber wiring products, highlighting the dominant revenue stream [36].