证券研究报告·行业深度报告·计算机 计算机行业深度报告 关注地方国企资本运作——国企改革和地方 增收的交汇点 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 12 月 30 日 证券分析师 王紫敬 执业证书：S0600521080005 021-60199781 wangzj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 2024/12/30 2025/4/30 2025/8/29 2025/12/28 计算机 沪深300 相关研究 《梳理 SpaceX 的 A 股供应商》 2025-12-29 《商业航天 还有哪 些事件 值得期 待？》 2025-12-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 土地财政规模承压，盘活存量资产。地方财政收入来源一共"四本账"， 其中国有土地使用权出让收入一直是地方财政收入的重要来源，而 2022 年以来，土地财政收入规模承压，因此 2022 年开始，国家和地方都陆 续出台了各项政策和措施提升土地使用权出让以外的财政收入，路径 ...

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·计算机 计算机行业深度报告 太空算力：苍穹之上的下一代计算范式 2025 年 12 月 30 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 执业证书：S0600521080005 021-60199781 wangzj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王世杰 执业证书：S0600523080004 wangshijie@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 2024/12/30 2025/4/30 2025/8/29 2025/12/28 计算机 沪深300 相关研究 《梳理 SpaceX 的 A 股供应商》 2025-12-29 《商业航天 还有哪 些事件 值得期 待？》 2025-12-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 证券分析师 王紫敬 ◼ 太空算力是构建于地球轨道上的下一代分布式计算范式。将数据中心的 核心硬件部署于太空，形成轨道级 AI 基础设施，实现数据在采集源头 完成处理与分析，从而将卫星从传统的"数据下行中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry, specifically focusing on the waste incineration sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the dual drivers of improved operating cash flow in the waste incineration sector: a decrease in capital expenditure and accelerated national subsidies. Since 2023, the sector has seen an improvement in free cash flow and dividend capacity primarily due to reduced capital expenditures [3][5]. - The report estimates that when capital expenditures reach maintenance levels (1.5% of total assets), the dividend potential for 2024 could be as high as 141% [3]. - The national subsidy recovery is expected to accelerate significantly in 2025, with a projected average recovery rate of around 89%, up from 39% in 2024 [3][21]. Summary by Sections 1. National Subsidy Recovery for Waste Incineration - The average account period for national subsidies is stable at around 2 years, with a slowdown in the growth of outstanding payments [8][10]. - The national subsidy recovery rate for the waste incineration sector has improved significantly, with a single-quarter operating cash flow net amount of 6.33 billion RMB in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 59% [13][15]. - Companies like Guangda Environment and Huanlan Environment have reported substantial improvements in subsidy recovery, with Guangda receiving approximately 20.64 billion RMB in subsidies from July to August 2025 [14][20]. 2. Renewable Energy Subsidy Fund - The renewable energy development fund is expected to reach a balance between income and expenditure around 2025, allowing for the gradual clearance of outstanding subsidies [24][25]. - The fund's income has been steadily increasing, while expenditure has reached its limit, indicating a potential for future surplus [24][25]. - By 2036, it is anticipated that historical outstanding subsidies will be resolved naturally as the pressure from subsidy expenditures decreases [25]. 3. Dividend Potential Assessment - The report calculates that the dividend potential for the waste incineration sector could rise from 114% to 141% with the acceleration of national subsidy recovery [3][19]. - The improvement in cash flow from national subsidies is expected to enhance the cash flow value of the sector, supporting the logic of increasing dividends and return on equity (ROE) [3][19]. - Key companies recommended for investment based on their dividend value include Huanlan Environment, Green Power, and Guangda Environment [3].

Macro Strategy - The report highlights the potential risk of Jerome Powell becoming a "de facto emperor" of the Federal Reserve, as he may choose to remain on the board after his term as chair ends, thereby influencing monetary policy despite a new chair being appointed [1][9][10] - The market is expected to react to Powell's potential decision, leading to a short-term narrative of dollar credit recovery, impacting the dollar index, U.S. stocks, and short-term Treasury yields positively, while gold and commodities may face downward pressure [1][9] Economic Indicators - The report anticipates a slight decline in December export growth, with infrastructure work showing a seasonal rebound in mid to late December [11][12] - The ECI supply index is reported at 49.93%, indicating a marginal decrease, while the demand index remains stable at 49.84%, suggesting a slowdown in economic activity [11][12] Industry Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming market conditions [2][16] - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a growing investment theme, particularly with the increasing recognition of satellite ETFs [2][16] Company Insights - Qianfang Technology (002373) is noted for its advancements in autonomous logistics, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 340 million, 496 million, and 680 million yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [7] - Dongfang Cable (603606) has secured significant contracts totaling 9.55 billion yuan for green transmission facilities and 19 billion yuan for high-voltage submarine cables, indicating strong growth potential in the Southeast Asian market [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, particularly highlighting the potential of AI-driven vehicles and related technologies [1][3]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is at a crossroads, transitioning from electric vehicle benefits to a focus on intelligent vehicles and robotics innovation [3]. - Key developments include the collaboration between Xiaopeng Motors and Peking University on the FastDrive VLA model, which addresses significant challenges in autonomous driving [2][3]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in the penetration of L3 and L2+ intelligent driving technologies by 2025, with expected market growth driven by major players like Tesla and Huawei [48][49]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - This week, the automotive sector outperformed the market, with passenger vehicles and auto parts showing the best performance, increasing by 3.3% [2][3]. - The report notes that the automotive sector ranked 11th in A-shares and 18th in Hong Kong stocks this week [7][9]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment themes: AI smart vehicles, robotics, and traditional vehicle segments benefiting from favorable market conditions [3]. - Key investment targets include: - **AI Smart Vehicles**: Focus on Robotaxi and Robovan models, with companies like Tesla, Xiaopeng, and Horizon Robotics highlighted [3]. - **Robotics**: Emphasis on component suppliers and companies involved in the development of humanoid robots and related technologies [54][60]. - **Traditional Vehicles**: Companies like Yutong Bus and China National Heavy Duty Truck are expected to benefit from ongoing demand and favorable policies [50][53]. Sales Forecasts - The report projects that domestic retail sales of passenger vehicles will reach 23.62 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [45]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to increase to 55.4% by 2025, with significant growth in both domestic and export markets [49][53]. Key Companies and Developments - Notable companies mentioned include Xiaopeng Motors, Ideal Auto, and Horizon Robotics, with significant advancements in technology and profitability reported [3][59]. - The report highlights the importance of strategic partnerships and technological advancements in driving future growth within the sector [60].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·公用事业 公用事业行业跟踪周报 25M11 全社会用电同比+6.2%，促进光热发 电规模化发展 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：需求不及预期、电价煤价波动风险、流域来水不及预期等 2025 年 12 月 29 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600522030002 renyx@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 2024/12/30 2025/4/29 2025/8/27 2025/12/25 公用事业 沪深300 相关研究 《2026 年全国能源工作会议召开，做 好 2026 年电力中长期合同签约履约》 2025-12-22 《气温偏高美国气价继续回落，库存 提取欧洲气价微增，25M11 国内用气 需求边际改善》 2025-12-22 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 任逸轩 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周核心观点：1） ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on the development of key technologies for logistics automation, which is expected to open a second growth curve [1] - The logistics automation sector is entering a golden development period, with significant market potential due to low penetration rates [8] - The company has a strong positioning advantage and is expected to benefit from its deep collaborations with over 30 provincial transportation investment groups [8] - The core profit model will focus on automated transportation services and SaaS subscription software, which is anticipated to drive future growth [8] - The company's main business is gradually recovering, with a focus on improving profitability and expanding overseas operations [8] - The company has announced a mid-term cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per 10 shares, balancing shareholder returns with transformation investments [8] - Earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 3.40 billion, 4.96 billion, and 6.80 billion yuan for net profit, with EPS of 0.22, 0.31, and 0.43 yuan respectively [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 7.794 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.28% [1] - The company expects a net profit of 542.40 million yuan in 2023, with a significant increase of 212.39% year-on-year [1] - The P/E ratio is expected to be 34.81 in 2023, dropping to 27.79 by 2027 [1] - The company’s operating cash flow is projected to be 143 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 763 million yuan by 2027 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights an upward adjustment in temperature expectations leading to a decrease in US gas prices, while European gas prices show a slight increase due to inventory withdrawals [1][4] - Domestic gas demand shows marginal improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 9.3% in November 2025 [1][25] Price Tracking - As of December 26, 2025, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH down by 8.2%, European TTF up by 0.9%, East Asia JKM up by 0.5%, China LNG ex-factory down by 2.9%, and China LNG CIF up by 0.7% [9][14] - The average gas price in China is reported at 2.6 yuan per cubic meter for LNG ex-factory and 2.4 yuan per cubic meter for LNG CIF [14] Supply and Demand Analysis - US natural gas market prices decreased by 8.2% due to higher temperature expectations, with storage levels dropping by 1.2% year-on-year [16] - European gas consumption from January to September 2025 reached 313.8 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [18] - Domestic gas consumption in China for January to November 2025 increased by 1.5% year-on-year, totaling 392 billion cubic meters [25][28] Pricing Mechanism Progress - Nationwide price adjustments for residential gas have been gradually implemented, with 67% of cities adjusting prices by an average of 0.22 yuan per cubic meter [37] - The report indicates that there is still a 10% room for price adjustment in the gas distribution sector [37] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing price mechanism adjustments, recommending companies such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [53][54] - It also highlights the importance of companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling, recommending Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [54] - The report emphasizes the significance of energy independence, suggesting attention to companies with gas production capabilities like New Natural Gas and Blue Flame Holdings [54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1]. Core Insights - The release of the CCER methodology for renewable energy electrolysis hydrogen is expected to reshape the economic viability of green hydrogen projects [10][12]. - The environmental protection industry strategy for 2026 emphasizes a dual focus on value and growth, driven by carbon neutrality initiatives [15]. - The report highlights significant growth in the sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 64.01% and a penetration rate increase of 6.68 percentage points to 18.6% [22]. - The price of biodiesel remains stable, with slight improvements in profit margins [34]. - The lithium battery recycling sector is experiencing a decline in profitability despite rising metal prices [35]. Summary by Sections CCER Methodology and Green Hydrogen - The CCER methodology for renewable energy electrolysis hydrogen was officially released, enhancing the regulatory framework for green hydrogen projects [10]. - The methodology specifies that it applies only to new projects and emphasizes the use of self-generated renewable energy [11]. - The economic benefits of green hydrogen projects are projected to improve, with investment recovery periods decreasing from 9.21 years to 8.77 years due to CCER revenue [12][13]. Environmental Protection Industry Strategy - The 2026 strategy focuses on the dual themes of value and growth, with an emphasis on market-oriented improvements and operational efficiency [15]. - Key recommendations include focusing on companies with strong cash flow and growth potential, such as Huanlan Environment and Longjing Environmental Protection [15][16]. Sanitation Equipment Market - The sanitation vehicle market saw a total sales volume of 66,563 units in the first eleven months of 2025, with new energy vehicles accounting for 12,383 units sold [22]. - The penetration rate of new energy sanitation vehicles reached 18.6%, indicating a growing trend towards electrification in this sector [22]. Biodiesel Market - The average price of biodiesel remained stable at 8,200 yuan per ton, with a slight improvement in profit margins [34]. - The price difference between UCOME and waste oil is approximately 2,172 yuan per ton, indicating a competitive market environment [34]. Lithium Battery Recycling - The profitability of lithium battery recycling projects has decreased, with average unit profits for lithium carbonate and waste materials showing negative margins [35]. - Despite this, metal prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel have increased, suggesting potential for future profitability improvements [35][37].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 #海外政治 以史为鉴：鲍威尔成为美联储"太上皇"的 尾部风险有多大？ ◼ 美联储史上著名的"太上皇"。埃克尔斯于 1934-1948 年任职美联储主 席，其任期始于美国大萧条时期，终于二战后的布雷顿森林体系。埃克 尔斯上任时期的货币政策导向兼具宽松与独立性。一方面，埃克尔斯上 任时美国经济仍在大萧条时期，因此其主张延续低利率政策来配合财政 宽松以刺激需求，另一方面，他认为货币与财政政策本质上是两套体系， 在任内推动通过了《银行法案(Banking Act of 1935)》，移除财政部部长 （Secretary of the Treasury）和货币总监（Comptroller of the Currency） 在美联储理事会中的席位，进一步提升美联储的独立性。二战结束后， 美国通胀压力逐步显现，埃克尔斯主张加息，但这与时任总统杜鲁门的 立场相违背。1947 年 12 月，理事兰萨姆（Ronald R. Ransom）在任上不 幸离世，而理事职位的新空缺令杜鲁门在美联储人事安排上拥有了更多 空间。因此，在埃克尔斯 1948 年主席任期结束后，杜鲁门选择麦凯布 (Thomas ...