证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·电力设备 电力设备行业跟踪周报 锂电储能淡季不淡、碳酸锂价格超预期上涨 2025 年 12 月 29 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 曾朵红 执业证书：S0600516080001 021-60199793 zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阮巧燕 执业证书：S0600517120002 021-60199793 ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -16% -9% -2% 5% 12% 19% 26% 33% 40% 47% 2024/12/30 2025/4/29 2025/8/27 2025/12/25 电力设备 沪深300 相关研究 《储能锂电淡季不淡、光伏反内卷持 续推进》 2025-12-22 2025-12-14 东吴证券研究所 1 / 49 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 《储能全球开花需求旺盛，AIDC 和人 形加速》 ◼ 电气设备 10313 上涨 5.37%，表现强于大盘。（本周，12 月 22 日-12 月 26 日，下同）锂电池涨 7.72%，风 电涨 7.14% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate chain is gradually clarifying its bottom, with expectations for a performance turning point in 2026 after clearing burdens from 2025 [3][4] - The building materials sector has shown a weekly increase of 4.56%, outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices by 2.61% and 1.78%, respectively [3] - The report highlights the stability in cement prices, with the national average price at 354.0 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week but down 62.2 RMB/ton year-on-year [3][10] - Glass prices have decreased, with the average price for float glass at 1140.1 RMB/ton, down 11.3 RMB/ton from the previous week and down 260.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [41][46] - The fiberglass market is expected to see stable growth in demand, particularly in wind power and thermoplastics, with effective capacity projected to reach 759.2 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Cement Market Overview - The national cement market price remains stable at 354.0 RMB/ton, with regional variations noted [10][11] - The average cement inventory ratio is 61.8%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [18][20] - The report anticipates a rebound in cement prices if physical demand stabilizes, particularly in provinces with significant infrastructure projects [4][9] 2. Glass Market Overview - The float glass market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with an average price of 1140.1 RMB/ton [41] - Inventory levels have increased, with a total of 5533 million weight boxes reported, indicating a need for inventory reduction [46] - The report suggests that the glass industry may face challenges in the short term due to high inventory levels and weak demand [4][41] 3. Fiberglass Market Overview - The fiberglass industry is expected to see a gradual recovery, with demand driven by new applications and stable growth in traditional sectors [4] - Effective capacity for fiberglass is projected to increase, supporting a positive outlook for leading companies in the sector [4][6] - The report recommends companies such as China Jushi and suggests attention to other players like Zhongcai Technology and Honghe Technology [4]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the Q3 2025 US GDP grew at an annualized rate of +4.3%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus expectation of +3.3% and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of +3.5% [1][10] - The main contributions to this growth were strong consumer spending and a reduction in inventory drag, with inventory changes being the largest marginal contributor to the acceleration in GDP growth [1][10] - Despite the strong GDP data, the market initially reacted with concerns of economic overheating, leading to a temporary cooling of interest rate cut expectations, which later reversed as asset prices adjusted [1][11] Fixed Income - The 10-year government bond yield rose from 1.8425% to 1.835% during the week of December 15-19, 2025, reflecting a mixed sentiment in the bond market [2][12] - The issuance of green bonds totaled approximately 21.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.64 billion yuan from the previous week, while the secondary market saw a total transaction volume of 80.1 billion yuan, an increase of 15.7 billion yuan [4][17] - The issuance of secondary capital bonds amounted to 8.46 billion yuan, with a total transaction volume of approximately 273.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.3 billion yuan from the previous week [4][19] Industry Analysis - 康耐特光学 (Kangnate Optical) is a leading manufacturer of resin lenses in China, with a robust growth trajectory expected as the market for AI smart glasses expands [5][20] - The company is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.2% in revenue and 35.2% in net profit from 2020 to 2024, driven by high-value products and automation improvements [5][21] - The smart glasses market is anticipated to create significant demand for high-refractive lenses, with 康耐特光学 positioned to benefit from this trend due to its technological advantages and partnerships with major tech companies [5][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1] Core Insights - The number of innovative drugs listed in China continues to grow, with domestic products accounting for approximately half of the total market share. The R&D capabilities for innovative drugs in China are also increasing, attracting global attention. Notably, the number and value of domestic innovative drug business development (BD) transactions have reached new highs, with ADC, bispecific antibodies, small nucleic acids, and CAR-T being the four key R&D directions to watch in 2026 [15][21][22] - The Chinese innovative drug market has seen a significant increase in the number of new drug applications (NDA), with domestic products making up a growing proportion. From 2017 to 2024, the number of innovative drugs listed in China rose from 41 to 92, with domestic products accounting for 50% of the total by 2024 [17][21] - The report highlights that the license-out transaction volume and total amount for Chinese companies reached $92.03 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a 77% increase compared to the total for 2024. The upfront payment for license-out transactions has also surpassed the total financing amount in the primary market for the same period [22][25] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The A-share pharmaceutical index has shown a year-to-date increase of 14.29%, while the Hang Seng Healthcare Index has surged by 62.29% [3][8] - The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector has experienced fluctuations, with raw materials and medical devices showing positive growth [8] R&D Progress and Company Dynamics - The report provides an overview of the R&D progress for innovative and modified drugs, including approvals and clinical applications [5] - It lists key companies to watch in various sub-sectors, including innovative drugs, research services, and medical devices, with specific recommendations for companies like Innovent Biologics, Hengrui Medicine, and WuXi AppTec [11][12] Market Insights and Regulatory Observations - The report tracks the price-to-earnings ratio of the pharmaceutical index, noting that it is currently lower than historical averages [5] - It emphasizes the importance of the regulatory environment and market dynamics in shaping the future of the pharmaceutical industry [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth potential of edge AI, particularly through the strategies of companies like Zhiyu Huazhang and MiniMax, which focus on B-end to C-end user engagement [8][19]. - Zhiyu Huazhang's strategy revolves around serving B-end clients, leveraging their platforms to indirectly reach C-end users, which aligns with the B-end dominated structure of the Chinese large model market [8][19]. - MiniMax's approach to edge AI products highlights the importance of customized user experiences and efficient inference capabilities, which are crucial for C-end applications [19][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Zhiyu Huazhang's Development Strategy - The company focuses on B-end clients while indirectly accessing C-end users through partnerships with consumer electronics manufacturers and internet platforms [8]. - The growth framework positions edge AI as a critical infrastructure for connecting B-end and C-end users, with plans to enhance their model matrix for comprehensive scenario coverage [8][10]. - The report outlines the company's commitment to building a complete model system that spans cloud, edge, and end [10]. 2. Insights from MiniMax's Prospectus - MiniMax's product strategy emphasizes high-efficiency inference technology and customized product offerings for C-end applications, which serve as a reference for future edge AI applications [19][20]. - The company has successfully established a business model that integrates technology with product offerings, leading to increased revenue and user engagement [19][24]. - MiniMax's focus on low-cost, high-efficiency inference aligns with the core demands of C-end applications, enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [19][20]. 3. Market Dynamics and Growth Path - The report identifies a dual-driven market structure where both C-end and B-end applications are advancing simultaneously, with a strong emphasis on model capability iteration [20]. - The B2B2C model is highlighted as a key growth narrative, allowing the company to leverage B-end client channels to efficiently reach a vast number of C-end users [17][18]. - The report notes that the company plans to prioritize sectors like consumer electronics and IoT for model deployment, with long-term aspirations to expand into education and healthcare [18][32].

Economic Indicators - The ECI supply index for December is at 49.93%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.84%[6] - The ECI investment index is at 49.86%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.66%, unchanged from last week[6] - The ECI export index is at 50.20%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decline in export momentum[6] Consumer and Investment Trends - In the first 11 months of 2025, over 11.2 million vehicles were traded under the vehicle replacement policy, accounting for over 50% of total retail sales of passenger cars, with an expected annual growth rate of around 4%[8] - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with a decrease in sales decline due to improved transaction volumes in major cities since late December[8] - Infrastructure investment shows a slight recovery, with the operating rate of asphalt plants rising to 31.30%, up 3.70 percentage points from the previous week[28] Export and Trade Insights - December export growth is expected to weaken compared to November, with a projected slight positive growth for the fourth quarter overall[9] - Port cargo throughput in December has decreased slightly compared to November, influenced by high base effects and reduced demand due to preemptive exports[8] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -0.39%, up 0.10 percentage points from last week, indicating stable liquidity conditions as the central bank continues to manage liquidity through open market operations[11] - The central bank has conducted a net injection of over 1 trillion yuan through MLF in 2025, supporting ample liquidity in the market[13] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Liquidity in January 2026 - The yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.05bp to 1.8355% from 1.835% last Friday. The yield fluctuated during the week due to various factors such as LPR expectations, government bond issuance concerns, and policy news [1][11]. - Five factors affect the super - reserve ratio. In January 2026, foreign exchange funds are expected to decrease by about 63 billion yuan; the central bank is expected to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity through various means and there is a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut; fiscal deposits are expected to increase by about 62 billion yuan; M0 is expected to increase by about 78 billion yuan; and required deposit reserves are expected to increase by about 50 billion yuan. The liquidity gap is about 190 billion yuan, which can be adjusted through open - market operations and reserve requirement ratio cuts [15][16][21]. - In the bond market, institutions may pay more attention to institutional behavior. It is expected that the allocation power of banks and insurance will strengthen at the beginning of next year, and interest rates may decline [21]. 2.2 US Economic Data and Fed Policy - Spot gold prices exceeded $4,500 per ounce, and it is expected to continue to play an important role in different asset portfolios. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate once exceeded 7. The long - term RMB value is systematically undervalued, but in the medium - term, the role of macro - policies in the transition from exogenous to endogenous growth needs to be considered [22][23]. - US economic data shows that inflation pressure is easing, economic expansion momentum is weakening, the labor market is stable, and the Fed is in a "data - dependent" mode. It is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the short term, but if economic data weakens, it may resume gradual interest rate cuts from January to April [23][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Views 3.1.1 Liquidity in January 2026 - **Weekly review**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond fluctuated during the week. The reasons included LPR non - adjustment, concerns about government bond issuance, and policy news [12]. - **Weekly thinking**: Analyze the five factors affecting the super - reserve ratio and predict the liquidity situation in January 2026. The overall liquidity gap is about 190 billion yuan, and the central bank may use various means to maintain liquidity [15][16][21]. 3.1.2 US Economic Data and Fed Policy - **Gold and exchange rate**: Gold prices are expected to continue to rise. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is affected by fiscal deficit and fiscal monetization [22][23]. - **US economic data**: The December PMI initial values were lower than expected, the November CPI and core CPI were lower than expected, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and the labor participation rate was stable. The Fed's policy is focused on "liquidity guarantee and prudent policy balance" [23][24][26]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - market operations**: From December 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank's open - market operations had a net investment of 6.52 billion yuan [38]. - **Interest rates**: Various interest rates such as money market rates, bond yields, and futures prices are presented in figures and tables, showing their trends and changes [39][40][42] 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Commodity prices**: Steel prices declined, and LME non - ferrous metal futures prices increased. The prices of other commodities such as coal, oil, and vegetables also had corresponding changes [59][61]. - **Financial market data**: Data on various financial market indicators such as stock indices, bond yields, and exchange rates in the US and other countries are presented [71][73][76] 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 6 local bonds were issued with an amount of 2.037 billion yuan, a repayment of 5.211 billion yuan, and a net financing of - 3.174 billion yuan. The bonds were mainly issued by Shenzhen, Hunan, and Inner Mongolia [85][87]. - No local special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued this week. Since January 1, 2025, a total of 2.199521 trillion yuan of such bonds have been issued [90]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The local bond stock was 54.6 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 362.073 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.66%. The top three active trading provinces were Guangdong, Xinjiang, and Jiangsu, and the top three active trading terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 15Y [101]. 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan The issuance plan of Beijing from December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, is presented in a figure [106]. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 211 credit bonds were issued with a total issuance of 254.432 billion yuan, a total repayment of 213.649 billion yuan, and a net financing of 40.783 billion yuan, which decreased by 16.672 billion yuan compared with last week [108]. - Specifically, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 261 million yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 4.1044 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing had a net financing of - 4.4152 billion yuan, medium - term notes had 8.0004 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had - 719 million yuan, corporate bonds had 1.5045 billion yuan, and private placement notes had - 292 million yuan [109][112]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The actual issuance interest rates and their changes of various bond types such as short - term financing, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds are presented in a table [119]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview The trading volume data of credit bonds in different ratings and types are presented in a table, with a total trading volume of 626.442 billion yuan [120]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity The yield to maturity and its changes of various bonds such as government - backed development bonds, short - term financing, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds are presented in tables [120][121][122] 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend, and their changes are presented in tables and figures [124][125][128] 3.4.6 Rating Spreads The rating spreads of short - term financing, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally widened, and their changes are presented in tables and figures [135][137][139] 3.4.7 Trading Activity The top five most actively traded bonds of each type are presented in a table, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [143][144] 3.4.8 Issuer Rating Changes The issuer rating or outlook improvement information of two companies, Wenzhou Transportation Development Group Co., Ltd. and Guangxi Energy Group Co., Ltd., is presented in a table [146]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Spot gold prices exceeded $4,500 per ounce, and factors in 2026 are favorable for gold. Gold is expected to play an important role in different asset portfolios, and the report continues to be bullish on gold [1][38]. - The global stock markets generally rose in the first week after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on December 19. The so - called "spring rally" may have started early, and the window for portfolio adjustment and layout in the fourth quarter is narrowing. Attention should be paid to balancing the risk of missing out on opportunities, and any short - term correction constitutes a significant right - hand layout opportunity [1][39]. - The most elastic convertible bond targets are the equity - oriented ones in the core themes of the annual strategy, such as Dinglong and Yongxi Convertible Bonds. The relatively elastic targets are in three undervalued directions: AI edge (consumer electronics, automotive intelligence, embodied robots), upstream key resource - type materials, and power transmission and distribution equipment. [1][40]. - The report attaches more importance to demand than supply. It recommends sectors with obvious growth expectations on the demand side, and sectors with marginal improvement on the supply side may have difficulty forming sustainable medium - term allocation opportunities without significant improvement on the demand side [1][40]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week are Hope Convertible Bond, Liuyao Convertible Bond, and others [1][40]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Market Review 1.1 Equity Market Overall Rise - From December 22 to December 26, the equity market overall rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.88% to 3,963.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.53% to 13,603.89 points, the ChiNext Index rose 3.90% to 3,243.88 points, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% to 4,657.24 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 207.924 billion yuan to 1948.902 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 11.94% [6][9]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 22 industries closed higher, with 14 industries rising more than 2%. Non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, power equipment, electronics, and building materials led the gains, rising 6.43%, 6.00%, 5.37%, 4.96%, and 4.56% respectively [14]. 1.2 Convertible Bond Market Overall Rise - From December 22 to December 26, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.64% to 493.25 points. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 25 industries closed higher, with 7 industries rising more than 2%. National defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, light industry manufacturing, computer, and electronics led the gains, rising 7.55%, 4.64%, 4.46%, 3.48%, and 3.27% respectively [16]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 80.058 billion yuan, a significant increase of 16.446 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 25.85%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Zai 22 Convertible Bond, Jiamei Convertible Bond, etc. About 76.79% of individual convertible bonds rose [16]. - The overall market conversion premium rate declined, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 41.60%, a decrease of 0.95 pct from the previous week. There were also changes in the conversion premium rate by price, parity, and industry [22][28]. - The conversion parity of 20 industries increased, with 12 industries rising more than 2%. Petroleum and petrochemicals, textile and apparel, automotive, steel, and national defense and military industry led the gains [31]. 1.3 Stock - Bond Market Sentiment Comparison - From December 22 to December 26, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly increase. The trading volume of both the convertible bond and underlying stock markets increased significantly, and the trading sentiment of the underlying stock market was better overall. However, the trading sentiment of the convertible bond market was better on some trading days [33]. 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - Gold is expected to continue its upward trend and play an important role in asset portfolios [1][38]. - The equity market's "spring rally" may have started early, and attention should be paid to balancing the risk of missing out on opportunities [1][39]. - The convertible bond strategy recommends certain equity - oriented and undervalued - sector targets, and provides the top ten convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week [1][40].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 海外周报 20251228 黄金价格再创历史新高，后市怎么看？ 2025 年 12 月 28 日 ◼ 黄金展望：26Q1 市场风险偏好上升或构成短期利空逻辑，但全球央行 购金潮仍将为金价中枢上移提供强有力支撑。本周黄金价格再度创下 4550 美元/盎司的历史新高，而全年累计涨幅也已经达到 72.73%，成为 最具收益的大类资产之一。那么未来黄金走势将如何变化呢？传统框架 下，金价由 ETF 需求主导，而 ETF 需求由美元等货币的加权平均实际 利率预期所驱动。新的投资范式下，金价由央行需求主导，央行需求由 美元信用驱动。由此我们可得出一个金价的简易二元模型，即金价 = f [美元利率，美元信用] = f [g(黄金 ETF 规模)，h(央行购金规模)]。因此 短期来看， 26Q1 美国的宽财政（ ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Views - The non-bank financial sector has shown resilience, with insurance and multi-financial sectors outperforming the CSI 300 index recently. The insurance sector is expected to perform well in the upcoming "opening red" period for 2026 [1][9] - The insurance industry has seen improvements in premium growth, with a year-to-date increase of 9.2% in original premiums for life insurance [20][27] - The securities sector is experiencing a decline in trading volume but is supported by new policies allowing foreign investors to engage in bond repurchase transactions [14][19] Summary by Sections Recent Performance of Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sectors - In the last five trading days (December 22-26, 2025), the multi-financial sector rose by 3.20%, and the insurance sector increased by 2.98%, while the overall non-bank financial sector rose by 1.97% [9] - Year-to-date, the insurance sector has increased by 35.78%, outperforming other sectors [10] Non-Bank Financial Sector Insights Securities - Trading volume has decreased, with an average daily trading amount of 21,509 billion CNY in December, a 22.49% increase year-on-year but a 4.02% decrease month-on-month [14] - The margin financing balance reached 25,454 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 35.40% [14] - The average PB valuation for the securities sector is 1.3x for 2025E, with recommendations for leading firms like CITIC Securities and Tonghuashun [19] Insurance - The insurance sector's original premium for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 44,206 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [20] - The asset-liability management regulations are being revised to strengthen oversight, which is expected to enhance risk management in the sector [23][27] - The insurance sector's valuation is currently at 0.69-1.02 times 2025E P/EV, indicating a historical low and maintaining an "Overweight" rating [27] Multi-Financial - The trust industry saw its asset scale reach 32.43 trillion CNY by mid-2025, with a year-on-year growth of 20.11% [30] - The futures market recorded a transaction volume of 7.70 billion contracts in November, with a transaction value of 66.61 trillion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.54% [34] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The recommended ranking for the non-bank financial sector is insurance > securities > other multi-financial services, with key recommendations including China Life, Ping An, and CITIC Securities [45] - The sector is characterized by low average valuations, providing a safety margin and balanced risk-reward profile [45]