其一，港股开年"独秀"，我们更偏向于理解为资金配置原因，更多的 是新年建仓、空头回补等因素。未来我们预计南向资金会继续增配港股， 边际增量主要来自保险和固收+。外资是否大幅回流还是看基本面叙事 是否有变化。 其二，短期仍然需控制港股仓位，春节前后行情或更好。我们主要担心 一月美股科技有回调风险，间接影响港股。市场对一月中下旬美股科技 财报仍持谨慎观察态度，投资者会对企业 Capex 和 ROI 会更为严格。 如不及预期，美股科技可能会有回调，港股科技反弹会受阻。 证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20260105 港股开年"独秀"全球？——港股&海外周观 察 港股开年"独秀"全球，从中长期配置来看，当前位置有吸引力。 其三，港股从现在进入震荡上行期，仍需将红利作为底仓，把握上半年 的科技成长行情。南向潜在增量资金保险和固收+会继续增配价值红利。 考虑估值，AH 对比视角，南向资金整体会增配港股科技成长股票，但 港股科技行情仍会受海外降息节奏和美股科技行情影响，需动态观察。 ◼ 美股：本周纳指领跌 1.5%，道指下跌 1.3%，标普下跌 1.0%。行业上， 能源、公用事业领涨，信息技术、金融领跌。美国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the dual drivers of improved cash flow in the waste incineration sector due to decreased capital expenditure and accelerated national subsidies [9][10] - The State Council's issuance of the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Treatment Action Plan" is expected to benefit resource recycling and solid waste management industries [15][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for dividend increases in the waste incineration sector, projecting a rise in dividend potential from 114% to 141% due to improved cash flow and subsidy recovery [13][12] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The environmental protection industry is experiencing a significant increase in cash flow and dividend potential due to reduced capital expenditures and improved national subsidy recovery [9][10] - The waste incineration sector is projected to see a substantial improvement in cash flow, with a notable increase in national subsidy recovery rates [10][11] Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Huanlan Environment, Longjing Environmental Protection, and Green Power for their dividend potential and growth prospects [3][13] - It also suggests monitoring companies like Weiming Environmental and Sanfeng Environment for their overseas growth strategies [3][13] Policy Tracking - The "Solid Waste Comprehensive Treatment Action Plan" sets clear targets for solid waste utilization by 2030, which is expected to drive growth in the resource recycling sector [15][16] - The report notes that the plan includes measures to improve the commercial model for waste management, which will benefit the industry [16][17] Company Highlights - Longjing Environmental Protection has successfully connected its second phase of the solar storage project in Guyana and delivered its first electric mining truck, marking a significant step in green mining [21][24] - Jingjin Equipment, a leader in filter press manufacturing, is expected to benefit from the recovery in the lithium battery sector and overseas expansion [27][28] Market Performance - The report indicates that the environmental protection sector is poised for growth, driven by increased demand for waste management and recycling solutions [30][31] - The report also highlights the expected recovery in cash flow for water service companies, which could mirror the trends seen in the waste incineration sector [31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the expected low temperatures have led to an increase in US gas prices and a rise in European gas prices due to inventory withdrawals [1][9] - It emphasizes the long-term value enhancement of special gas in commercial aerospace [1] Price Tracking - As of January 2, 2026, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH +20.2%, European TTF +4.2%, East Asia JKM -0.2%, China LNG ex-factory -1.4%, and China LNG CIF +2.3%, with prices at 1, 2.5, 2.5, 2.6, and 2.5 yuan per cubic meter respectively [9][14] Supply and Demand Analysis - Meteorological agencies predict that national temperatures will remain low until January 12, leading to a week-on-week increase of 20.2% in US natural gas market prices. As of December 26, 2025, the storage volume decreased by 38 billion cubic feet to 33,750 billion cubic feet, a year-on-year decline of 1.1% [16] - European gas consumption from January to September 2025 was 313.8 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [18] - Domestic gas prices decreased by 1.4% week-on-week, with apparent consumption in China from January to November 2025 increasing by 1.5% year-on-year to 392 billion cubic meters [24][29] Pricing Progress - From 2022 to 2025, 67% (195 cities) of cities at or above the prefecture level implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an increase of 0.22 yuan per cubic meter [38] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, recommending companies such as Xinao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, among others [56] - It also highlights the importance of companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling, recommending Jiufeng Energy and Xinao Shares [56] - The report notes the increasing uncertainty regarding US gas imports and emphasizes the importance of energy self-sufficiency, suggesting attention to companies with gas production capabilities like New Natural Gas and Blue Flame Holdings [56]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [35]. Core Insights - The implementation of the vehicle trade-in policy in 2026 is expected to boost the industry's outlook, particularly for passenger vehicles, heavy trucks, and buses, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles and established export-oriented companies [2][26]. - The heavy truck segment is anticipated to see a sales volume of 800,000 to 850,000 units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3% [30]. - The bus segment is projected to maintain growth, with an estimated sales volume of 40,000 units in 2026, a 5% increase year-on-year [30]. - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [27]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The short-term outlook is positive due to the new subsidy policies, with expectations for a recovery in demand in Q1 2026. Key companies to watch include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, and BYD [2][26]. - The 2026 subsidy budget is projected at 125 billion yuan, which could drive an additional sales increase of 780,000 to 1.54 million units [15]. Heavy Trucks - The 2026 trade-in policy for heavy trucks has exceeded expectations, with subsidies remaining at previous levels. The anticipated sales volume for 2026 is optimistic, with a target of 800,000 to 850,000 units [30][19]. - Recommended companies in this segment include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and FAW Jiefang [30]. Buses - The bus segment's policy has also exceeded expectations, with a projected sales volume of 40,000 units in 2026, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase [30][18]. - Key recommendations include Yutong Bus and King Long [30]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to see a total sales volume of 19.38 million units in 2026, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow significantly [27]. - Recommended companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [27].

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20260105 脑机接口推进临床，具身智能向个人化发展 2026 年 01 月 05 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 本周 AI 要闻 （信息来源：新浪财经、上海证券报等） 周度观点 ◼ AI 产业链条延续变化趋势，脑机接口与小型机器人等产品落地 （1）本周全球 AI 产业延续全链条推进态势，整体来看，行业正通过资本 协同、技术创新与场景落地的深度联动，推动 AI 价值从技术探索向实际 应用加速转化。 相关研究 《节后 A 股行情推演》 （2）算力与基础设施方面，本周企业继续通过资本整合补强 AI 产业全栈 能力。英伟达通过 50 亿美元注资英特尔以及拟用 20-30 亿美元收购大模 型公司 AI21Labs 的核心推理技术与顶尖人才分别补强其生产线与专利库 和软件板块，推进"硬件+软件+应用"全栈布局，此类收购可能抬升全球 AI 人才估值锚点，迫使竞争对手提高留人成本。软银则以 40 亿美元收购 DigitalBridge 并累计 410 亿美元投资 OpenAI，不仅巩固了 AI 行业巨头 OpenAI 在全球 AI 竞赛中的优势、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the electric power equipment industry [1] Core Views - The lithium battery prices are rapidly linked, and there is significant long-term potential in space photovoltaic technology [1] - The energy storage sector is expected to see substantial growth, with a projected increase of over 60% in 2026 due to rising demand and supply constraints [3][7] - The electric vehicle market is anticipated to grow by 15% in 2026, supported by continued subsidies and a strong export contribution [26] Industry Trends - The electric power equipment sector experienced a decline of 2.18%, underperforming the market, with specific segments like wind power and new energy vehicles showing slight increases [3] - The report highlights the release of independent energy storage capacity compensation in Hubei Province at 165 RMB/kW·year, indicating government support for energy storage development [3] - The report notes that the global energy storage market is expected to grow significantly, with the U.S. projected to see a 60% increase in energy storage installations in 2025 [7] Market Prices and Changes - Lithium carbonate prices are reported at 112,500 RMB/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.9% [3] - The average price of polysilicon is reported at 53.00 RMB/kg, with no change, while N-type silicon wafers have seen a price increase of 20% [3] - The report indicates that the average bidding price for onshore wind power is 1,800 RMB/kW, reflecting a competitive market environment [3] Company Performance - Companies like Ningde Times and BYD are highlighted for their strong performance, with Ningde Times expected to see a net profit of 11-16 billion RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 127%-230% [3] - Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium are noted for their strategic partnerships and production capacity expansions, positioning them well in the lithium supply chain [3] - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential for companies involved in energy storage and lithium battery production, recommending investments in leading firms such as Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy [3][6]

Macro Strategy - The report suggests that despite expectations of a slowdown in marginal fiscal funding for 2026, fiscal spending may still exceed expectations due to two main factors: a rebound in prices leading to increased fiscal revenue and a significant amount of fiscal "surplus" carried over from 2025 [1][10] - Specifically, if the PPI year-on-year growth rate rebounds by 1.8 percentage points (from -2.4% to -0.6%), it could generate approximately 260 billion yuan in additional tax revenue, equivalent to an increase in the deficit ratio by 0.2 percentage points (from 4.0% to 4.2%) [1][10] - Additionally, the fiscal surplus from 2025 is expected to exceed 500 billion yuan, which, combined with the tax revenue increase, could enhance the growth rate of general public budget expenditure by about 2.6 percentage points, allowing for unexpected spending expansion within the budget framework [1][10] Fixed Income - The report indicates that the overall focus remains on demand rather than supply, recommending attention to sectors with clear growth expectations on the demand side [3][18] - It highlights that the issuance of green bonds in the primary market totaled approximately 22.76 billion yuan, an increase of 1.65 billion yuan from the previous week, while the secondary market transaction volume for green bonds decreased by 15.6 billion yuan [4][20] - The issuance of secondary capital bonds reached 53.15 billion yuan, with a total transaction volume of approximately 272.9 billion yuan in the secondary market, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [4][21] Industry Insights - The report discusses Guizhou Moutai's strategy for 2026, focusing on accelerating marketing transformation and building diverse channels. The company plans to stabilize the overall domestic supply of Moutai liquor while clarifying product positioning [8] - Moutai aims to enhance the market share and opening rate of its 500ml classic series, while also strengthening premium and zodiac products, with a focus on creating a flagship product priced above 2000 yuan [8] - The company is committed to maintaining a "2+N" product system for Moutai sauce-flavored liquor, ensuring that the Moutai 1935 product does not increase in volume to enhance channel resilience and address profitability issues for distributors [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Guilin Tourism (000978) for the first time [1]. Core Insights - Guilin Tourism is positioned as a diversified tourism group based in Guilin, focusing on integrating cultural and tourism resources to enhance its market presence [8][13]. - The tourism market is experiencing a strong recovery, supported by favorable policies and increasing consumer demand for travel [45][53]. - The company is actively optimizing its asset structure and launching new projects to drive growth, leveraging its core tourism resources to build competitive advantages [54][64]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guilin Tourism was established in April 1998 and listed in May 2000, focusing on scenic tourism, cruise operations, and hotel services [13]. - In 2024, the company received 5.68 million visitors, with a revenue of 432 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.58% [21][23]. Tourism Market Recovery - The domestic tourism market is recovering robustly, with a 15% increase in domestic travel in 2024 compared to the previous year [45][48]. - During the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, domestic travel reached 888 million trips, a 16% increase from 2024 [48] . Core Tourism Resources and Development Initiatives - Guilin Tourism has established a competitive edge through its core tourism resources, including key attractions like the Two Rivers and Four Lakes and Silver Cave [54][58]. - The company is enhancing its service offerings and operational efficiency through asset optimization and innovative project launches, such as the high-end hotel "Lijiang·Waterfall Hotel" [64]. Financial Analysis - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 0.3 billion, 0.4 billion, and 0.5 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 104, 89, and 67 [1][19]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 432 million yuan, with a slight recovery expected in subsequent years [1][21]. Investment Recommendations - Given the company's strong market position and growth potential, the report recommends an "Accumulate" rating, anticipating valuation premiums due to its status as a leading tourism player in Guangxi [1][64].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [58]. Core Insights - The automotive parts sector saw a weekly increase of 2.91%, ranking first among the SW automotive sector, with a year-to-date increase of 42.58% [2][15]. - The robotics sector experienced a weekly rise of 3.73%, with a year-to-date increase of 62.08%, outperforming the automotive parts sector by 0.83% [2][29]. - Key companies in the automotive parts sector are making strategic moves, such as Silver Wheel's investment of 380 million yuan in capacity expansion and Huada Technology's announcement of a cash dividend plan [2][51]. Summary by Sections Automotive Parts Sector Weekly Review - The automotive parts sector ranked first in the SW automotive index this week, with a year-to-date performance of +42.58% [15][19]. - The sector's PE (TTM) is at a historical 79.44% percentile, and PB (LF) is at 75.50% [27]. - The top-performing stocks this week include Xinquan Co. (+14.05%), Beite Technology (+11.64%), and Top Group (+8.26%) [2][46]. Robotics Sector Weekly Review - The robotics index increased by 3.73% this week, with a year-to-date performance of +62.08% [29]. - The sector's PE (TTM) is at a historical 45.12% percentile, and PB (LF) is at 54.43% [39]. - Notable developments include the planned A-share listing of Yuejiang Technology and the H-share listing of Zhejiang Rongtai [40]. Key Company Tracking - Key companies in the automotive parts sector include Fuyao Glass, Top Group, and Silver Wheel, with significant recent announcements regarding capacity expansion and dividend plans [51][46]. - The top five stocks by weekly performance are Xinquan Co., Beite Technology, Top Group, Daimai Co., and New Coordinates [2][46]. Investment Recommendations - For the automotive parts sector, focus on companies with structural opportunities, particularly those enhancing ASP through high-value segments and expanding capacity in Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia [2][53]. - In the robotics sector, look for certainty in opportunities, especially with the upcoming release of Optimus V3 and the application of domestic manufacturers [2][53].

证券研究报告 注：若无特殊说明，"本周"均代表2025.12.29-2026.1.2 2 ◼ 本周智能汽车行情复盘：我们编撰的智能汽车指数-6.2%，智能汽车指数（除特斯拉）+0.2%。截至2025年 12月31日，智能汽车指数PS(TTM）为14.1x，该估值位于2023年初以来96%分位数；智能汽车指数（除特 斯拉）PS(TTM）为6.4x，该估值位于2023年初以来90%分位数。智能汽车指数标的池中佑驾创新、文远知 行、小马智行、禾赛、小鹏汽车涨幅前五。 （ ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）小马智行Robotaxi规模突破1159辆，超额完成2025年千辆Robotaxi目标；2）特斯 拉 FSD v14.2 完成2天20小时零接管横穿美国 ◼ 当前时点智能汽车板块投资建议：继续坚定看好2026年L4 RoboX主线！ ➢ B端软件标的>C端硬件标的。H股优选【小鹏汽车+地平线机器人+小马智行/文远知行+曹操/黑芝麻智能】； A股优选【千里科技+德赛西威+经纬恒润】 ➢ 下游应用维度相关标的：#Robotaxi视角：1）一体化模式：特斯拉/小鹏汽车；2）技术提供商+运营分成模 式：地平线/百度/小马智行/文远 ...