Report Information - Report Title: Big Refining Weekly Report: PTA Industry Development Symposium Held, Pay Attention to the Advancement of Anti-Involution in the Chemical Industry [1] - Report Date: November 2, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Chen Shuxian, Zhou Shaowen [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the big refining industry, including the performance of key refining projects, the polyester, refining, and chemical sectors, and the market performance of related listed companies [2] Summary by Directory 1. Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Price and Spread Data**: Domestic key big refining project spread is 2,450 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton (down 4%) week-on-week; foreign key big refining project spread is 1,302 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan/ton (up 6%) week-on-week [2] - **Polyester Sector**: POY/FDY/DTY industry average prices are 6,429/6,679/7,779 yuan/ton, up 21/61/46 yuan/ton respectively; POY/FDY/DTY industry weekly average profits are -17/-116/17 yuan/ton, down 88/62/72 yuan/ton respectively; POY/FDY/DTY industry inventories are 8.5/18.3/24.5 days, down 3.3/3.6/5.0 days respectively; filament开工率 is 90.9%, down 0.1 pct; downstream loom开工率 is 69.0%, up 2.6 pct; weaving enterprise raw material inventory is 14.0 days, up 2.9 days; weaving enterprise finished product inventory is 23.0 days, down 1.1 days [2] - **Refining Sector**: Domestic refined oil: gasoline/diesel prices declined this week; US refined oil: US gasoline/diesel/aviation kerosene prices rose this week [2] - **Chemical Sector**: This week's PX average price is 820.7 US dollars/ton, up 26.3 US dollars/ton; the spread to crude oil is 344.9 US dollars/ton, up 8.2 US dollars/ton; PX开工率 is 87.1%, up 0.8 pct [2] - **Related Listed Companies**: Private big refining & polyester filament: Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., Xin凤鸣 [2] 2. Big Refining Weekly Report 2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends - **Market Performance Comparison**: The report presents the price trends and spreads of domestic and foreign big refining projects, as well as the market performance of six private big refining companies compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, the petroleum and petrochemical index, and the Brent crude oil price [13][15][17] 2.2 Polyester Sector - **Price and Profit Analysis**: The report analyzes the prices, spreads, and profits of various polyester products, including PX, PTA, MEG, POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle chips, as well as their relationships with raw material prices and inventories [23][24][35] - **开工率 and Inventory Analysis**: It also examines the开工率 and inventory levels of polyester products and their downstream industries, such as looms, and analyzes the seasonal distribution of polyester filament production and sales rates [30][42][56] 2.3 Refining Sector - **Domestic Refined Oil**: The report analyzes the prices and spreads of domestic gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [78][80][87] - **US Refined Oil**: It also examines the prices and spreads of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [92][94][101] - **European Refined Oil**: The report analyzes the prices and spreads of European gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [106][108][114] - **Singapore Refined Oil**: It also examines the prices and spreads of Singapore gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [118][120][126] 2.4 Chemical Sector - **Price and Spread Analysis**: The report analyzes the prices and spreads of various chemical products, including polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, styrene, acrylonitrile, PC, MMA, etc., compared to crude oil prices [132][141]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, focusing on high-growth AI equipment and semiconductor equipment opportunities [1]. Core Views - The report highlights the positive outlook for AI equipment driven by increased computing power spending, particularly in PCB equipment, liquid cooling systems, and gas turbines [2]. - The humanoid robot sector is expected to experience a surge in November due to key events from Tesla and domestic companies, indicating a favorable market environment [3]. - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to benefit from accelerated storage capacity expansion and domestic equipment localization, with significant growth expected in orders [4]. - The shipbuilding industry is anticipated to recover due to the suspension of port fees and tariffs between China and the U.S., which is expected to restore confidence and orders [5]. Summary by Sections Recommended Stocks - The report recommends a diversified portfolio including companies such as North China Innovation, SANY Heavy Industry, and others across various segments like AI equipment, semiconductor equipment, and shipbuilding [1][16]. AI Equipment - The NVIDIA GTC conference is expected to boost demand for AI equipment, with specific recommendations for PCB drilling equipment and liquid cooling systems [2]. - Key companies to watch include Dazhong CNC for PCB equipment and Hongsheng for liquid cooling solutions [2]. Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is poised for growth with significant events in November, suggesting a favorable investment climate [3]. - Core companies in this space include Top Group and Zhejiang Rongtai, among others [3]. Semiconductor Equipment - The report emphasizes the rapid increase in demand for semiconductor equipment due to AI-driven needs, with a focus on domestic manufacturers [4]. - Companies like North China Innovation and Micro Company are highlighted as key players in this sector [4]. Shipbuilding Industry - The shipbuilding market is expected to recover following the suspension of tariffs, with a positive outlook for order volumes [5]. - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation is noted as a significant player benefiting from this recovery [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's main brand shows steady improvement, and new business formats are continuously being adjusted and optimized [1] - The company reported a revenue of 15.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.23%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.86 billion yuan, down 2.37% year-on-year [1] - The main brand's revenue growth turned positive in Q3, with significant growth in group purchase business [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 21.528 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.98% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is forecasted at 2.952 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.96% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is projected to be 0.61 yuan per share [1] - The company’s revenue for 2025E is estimated at 21.722 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.65% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025E is expected to be 2.210 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.36% [1] - The P/E ratio for 2025E is projected to be 13.45 [1] Business Segment Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the main brand's revenue was 10.849 billion yuan, down 3.99% year-on-year, but Q3 showed a positive growth of 3.0% [1] - The group purchase custom series generated 1.882 billion yuan in revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 28.75% [1] - Other brands contributed 2.413 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.19% [1] Cash Flow and Profitability - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 41.77%, a decrease of 1.04 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 6.99%, remaining stable year-on-year [1] - The operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was -690 million yuan, an improvement from -1.97 billion yuan in Q3 2024 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in shipments in Q3 2025, while its non-photovoltaic materials business continues to grow significantly [7] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.039 billion yuan from January to Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -117 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.46% [7] - The company expects improved profitability in Q4 2025 as the price of film products rebounds [7] - The non-photovoltaic materials business generated approximately 200-250 million yuan in revenue in Q3 2025, with the new energy materials segment growing over 50% year-on-year [7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, now expecting net profits of -120 million yuan and 30 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a significant growth forecast for 2027 [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4.166 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.22% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be 103.61 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.50% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at 0.24 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 49.28 [1] - The company’s total assets are estimated to be 4.383 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 38.93% [6][8] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is expected to be 365 million yuan in 2024 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 3.19 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22% and a year-on-year increase of 26%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 370 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15% and a year-on-year increase of 47% [7] - Key customers, including Chery and Geely, showed significant production increases, contributing over 50% to the company's revenue. The sales volume of intelligent electronic control products increased by 42% year-on-year, while disc brakes saw a 27% increase [7] - The company is actively advancing its capacity layout and has established new projects in the robotics sector, including a joint venture for humanoid robot components [7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.92 billion, 15.50 billion, and 18.38 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 20%, and 19% respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 1.44 billion, 1.74 billion, and 2.08 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 19%, 21%, and 20% [7][8] - The report indicates a recovery in gross margin, which was 20.6% in Q3 2025, showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.385 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.75%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 340 million yuan, up 30.03% year-on-year. The strong performance in Q3 was driven by robust growth in the domestic home textile business, particularly through online channels, and a reduction in losses from the U.S. furniture business [7] - The company's gross margin improved significantly, reaching 47.91% for the first three quarters, an increase of 2.02 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to enhanced brand positioning and a higher proportion of online sales [7] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 upwards, reflecting the success of its major product strategy, with expected net profits of 5.19 billion yuan, 5.75 billion yuan, and 6.36 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 5.315 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.03%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 572.44 million yuan, a decrease of 1.44% year-on-year [1] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.62 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.29 based on the current price and latest diluted EPS [1] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2025 was 543 million yuan, an increase of 31.36% year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in cash payments for goods and services [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure due to adjustments, but the expansion of new products is expected to drive growth [1] - The company reported a revenue of 2.45 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 240 million yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin remains high, but the increase in sales expenses has pressured the net profit margin [7] - The company is focusing on a big product strategy to enhance user loyalty, with strong performance from flagship products [7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with net profit estimates revised down to 380 million, 500 million, and 620 million yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10%, 32%, and 23% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 2.226 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 28.52% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is forecasted at 259.42 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 48.93% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is estimated at 0.65 yuan per share [1] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 53.38 in 2023A to 22.51 in 2027E [1] - The gross margin for 2025 is expected to be 74.9%, with a slight increase in subsequent years [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue remains stable, but profit is under short-term pressure due to intensified price competition in a low industry demand environment [2] - The gross margin continues to decline, with a sales gross margin of 25.98%, down 2.04 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to weak downstream demand and increased price competition [2] - The company is steadily advancing capacity construction and accelerating domestic and international channel development, with a focus on enhancing market management and customer service systems [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.521 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.13%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 338 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.39% [2] - The company’s total revenue forecast for 2025 is 3.436 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.53%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 471.6 million yuan, down 9.83% year-on-year [1][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.90 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.20 based on the current price [1][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 performance was impacted by stock incentive expenses, but there are expectations for accelerated revenue recognition in new lithium battery downstream markets and overseas [1][7] - The company reported a total revenue of 1.486 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.64%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.17% [7] - The company is actively expanding into overseas markets and new downstream sectors, with a focus on Southeast Asia and North America [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, total revenue is projected at 1.505 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.68% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is estimated at 173.23 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.76% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is expected to be 1.29 yuan per share [1] - The company anticipates a total revenue of 2.276 billion yuan in 2025E, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.09% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025E is projected at 223.64 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.48% [1] Market Data Summary - The closing price of the company's stock is 45.27 yuan, with a market capitalization of 6.084 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.12 based on the latest diluted earnings [1][5] - The company’s net asset per share is 14.36 yuan, and the asset-liability ratio stands at 49.16% [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its production capabilities and market reach through acquisitions, including a 100% stake in Circul-Aire Inc. to strengthen its upstream filter material production [7] - The company has established subsidiaries and production bases overseas, including in Singapore, Thailand, and Canada, to tap into new markets [7] - The company aims to accelerate the integration of its supply chain through both organic growth and acquisitions [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 was under pressure due to weak demand and a decline in connections, with a revenue of 3.046 billion yuan, down 14.95% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 262 million yuan, down 41.95% year-on-year [7] - The report highlights that the weak performance is primarily due to a sluggish real estate market affecting installation business, delayed price adjustments for residential gas, and a soft downstream natural gas demand [7] - The gradual implementation of natural gas pricing policies across various regions is expected to benefit the company, with a potential recovery in residential price differentials [7] - The company has committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% from 2023 to 2025, with actual payout ratios of 97.1%, 126.9%, and 139.7% for the respective periods, indicating a strong return for shareholders [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023 is 4.947 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 4.179 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 12.12% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 606.31 million yuan in 2023 to 301.06 million yuan in 2025, a decline of 40.19% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.42 yuan per share in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 22.60 [1] - The company’s total assets are estimated to decrease from 6.216 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.800 billion yuan in 2026 [8]