证券研究报告·公司点评报告·证券Ⅱ 浙商证券（601878） 2025 年中报点评：交投活跃度提升带动业绩 增长，自营系主要驱动力 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 17,638 | 15,816 | 12,251 | 12,651 | 13,329 | | 同比（%） | 4.90% | -10.33% | -22.54% | 3.26% | 5.36% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,754 | 1,932 | 2,378 | 2,603 | 2,833 | | 同比（%） | 6.01% | 10.17% | 23.07% | 9.47% | 8.84% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.46 | 0.49 | 0.52 | 0.67 | 0.73 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 26.93 | 25.29 | 23.83 | 18.46 | 16.96 | [Table ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SANY Heavy Industry [2][4] Core Views - In Q2 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 38% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, benefiting from both domestic and international demand [2] - For H1 2025, total revenue reached 44.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 5.22 billion yuan, up 46% year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to maintain rapid revenue growth in the second half of the year due to ongoing strong performance in excavator sales and a significant narrowing of declines in other segments [2] Financial Performance Summary - H1 2025 gross profit margin was 27.6%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit margin was 11.9%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company reported a significant increase in operating cash flow, reaching 10.13 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 20.1% increase year-on-year [3] - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 at 8.5 billion, 11.14 billion, and 12.71 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 21, 16, and 14 times [4][10] Business Segment Performance - Excavator sales revenue was 17.5 billion yuan, up 15% year-on-year, driven by domestic cyclical recovery and improved export conditions [2] - Crane sales revenue increased by 17.9% year-on-year to 7.8 billion yuan, benefiting from structural demand improvements in the domestic wind power sector [2] - Concrete machinery sales revenue decreased by 6.5% year-on-year to 7.44 billion yuan, but the decline was significantly narrowed compared to 2024 [2] Strategic Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from a domestic cyclical upturn expected to last 2-3 years, supported by ongoing improvements in funding and replacement logic [4] - The global strategy includes expanding production capacity in key markets like Indonesia and the U.S., enhancing local advantages [4] - The company achieved 4.03 billion yuan in revenue from new energy products in 2024, a 23% year-on-year increase, with leading market shares in electric construction machinery [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 295 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 49 million yuan, up 1.27% year-on-year. The decline in profit growth compared to revenue growth is primarily due to increased share-based payment expenses from the 2024 restricted stock incentive plan. Excluding these expenses, profit growth was 13.85%, aligning with revenue growth [2] - The company's gross margin decreased to 38.67% in the first half of 2025, down 4.73 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by changes in accounting policies and a higher proportion of lower-margin automated production line revenue. The net profit margin was 16.60%, down 2.30 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The proportion of technical personnel increased to 31% by the end of the first half of 2025, indicating capacity expansion and rising market demand. The net cash flow from operating activities improved to 165 million yuan, driven by increased cash collections from sales and government R&D funding [4] - The company is steadily expanding its market presence, particularly in the aerospace sector, and has established collaborations with several new users. It is also making strides in the civil sector, achieving significant order growth in various fields [4] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards due to slower-than-expected recovery in manufacturing sector conditions. The updated net profit estimates are 138 million yuan for 2025, 187 million yuan for 2026, and 243 million yuan for 2027, with corresponding dynamic P/E ratios of 61, 45, and 34 times [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10] Core Views - In H1 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 30.3% year-on-year, driven by a continuous breakthrough in the penetration rate of high-power products [3] - The company's total revenue for H1 2025 was 1.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.9% [3] - The revenue growth is attributed to increased investment in technology research and market expansion, leading to a sustained increase in overall order volume [3] - The company maintains a leading position in the domestic market for medium and low-power solutions and is the top domestic manufacturer of high-power laser cutting control systems [3] Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 78.8%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 59.5%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The revenue from flat solutions was 680 million yuan, while the revenue from pipe solutions was 240 million yuan, benefiting from rapid penetration rates [3][4] - The company has maintained excellent cost control, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 4.7%, 5.5%, 10.7%, and -0.9% respectively [4] Market Trends - The trend of intelligent welding in the steel structure sector is confirmed, with expectations for expansion into higher-value areas such as shipbuilding and bridges [5] - The company is increasing investment in platform capabilities and technology development to ensure business profitability and the successful application of new technologies [5] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.06 billion yuan, 1.29 billion yuan, and 1.59 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to current market P/E ratios of 40.96, 33.60, and 27.40 [1][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 9.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.12 billion yuan, also up 11% year-on-year. The second quarter alone saw a revenue of 4.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of 690 million yuan, both reflecting a 9% year-on-year growth. The company’s sales volume of balance heavy forklifts reached 290,000 units, a 3% increase year-on-year, indicating a strong performance relative to the industry [2][4] - The gross profit margin showed a steady increase, reaching 22.0% in the first half of 2025, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 12.6%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year. The second quarter gross profit margin was 23.3%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 15.0%. The improvement in gross margin is attributed to the increase in overseas sales and the proportion of electric products [3] - The overseas forklift market is showing signs of recovery, with major orders from leading companies like Toyota and Kion increasing by 3% and 10% respectively in Q2 2025. The company is expected to benefit from this demand recovery and its ongoing improvements in overseas channel construction and capacity layout. Additionally, the company is advancing its smart logistics segment, having deployed over 7,000 AGVs in the first half of 2025, and is developing humanoid robots for material handling, which will open up long-term growth opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with revenue of 3.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90 million yuan, down 81.2% year-on-year [7] - The company's cesium and rubidium business saw a significant profit increase, with a revenue of 710 million yuan in the first half of 2025, up 50% year-on-year [7] - The lithium price is expected to rebound in the second half of 2025, potentially contributing over 200 million yuan in profit [7] - The copper smelting business faced losses due to tight global copper concentrate supply, but is expected to reduce losses in the third quarter of 2025 [7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 670 million yuan, 1.28 billion yuan, and 2.15 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6,013 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.22% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 2,208.16 million yuan, down 32.98% year-on-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at 3.06 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.29 [1] - The company expects a total revenue of 7,016 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.81% [1] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 670.67 million yuan, a decrease of 11.40% year-on-year [1] - The EPS for 2025 is expected to be 0.93 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 43.75 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown improvement in its business structure, with rapid development in its chemical agent business [1] - The report highlights a significant increase in revenue and a focus on expanding the chemical agent product line, which is expected to drive future growth [1] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 808.40 million, with a year-on-year growth of 47.47% - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 90.33 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.39% - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is expected to be 0.95 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 44.42 [1][8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is forecasted to reach 1,271.09 million in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 37.09% - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 163.15 million in 2025, showing a decrease of 9.74% compared to 2024 [1][8] - The EPS for 2025 is projected at 1.71 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 24.59 [1][8] Business Segment Performance - The chemical agent revenue for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 1.66 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 42% - The gross margin for the chemical agent segment is projected to be 45%, contributing to 51% of the total gross profit [1] - The company has made significant investments in expanding its production capacity for copper extractants and other chemical products [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan aimed at achieving a compound annual growth rate of 17% in net profit from 2025 to 2027, reflecting confidence in future growth [1] - The report emphasizes ongoing efforts in market development and technological research, which are expected to enhance the company's competitive position [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong growth in its main business segments, particularly in automotive electronics and industrial control, with significant revenue increases driven by rising order volumes and enhanced delivery capabilities [7]. - The electronic manufacturing services industry is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in the demand for medium to large batch PCBA, which is expected to continue stimulating market development [7]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity to capture market opportunities, with new facilities expected to come online ahead of schedule to meet demand [7]. - Earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 project revenues of 5.15 billion, 6.03 billion, and 7.07 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 630 million, 820 million, and 1.07 billion yuan, respectively [7]. Financial Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 353.68 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 49.38%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 515.35 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 36.76% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 43.06 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 63.03 million yuan by 2025, representing a growth of 30.59% [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.54 yuan in 2023 to 0.79 yuan in 2025, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.56 at the end of 2025 [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with total revenue of 1.214 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 425 million yuan, up 24.11% year-on-year [8] - The promotion of the PFA new product is progressing smoothly, with expectations for accelerated growth in the second half of the year [8] - The company has completed over 800 PFA pulse ablation surgeries and has made significant progress in product access and routine operations across major centers nationwide [8] - The vascular intervention product line has seen a strong increase in the number of hospitals adopting its products, with coronary products entering over 18% more hospitals compared to the same period last year [8] - The company's international brand products have shown rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 34.56% in key markets [8] - The profit forecast for 2025 remains unchanged, with an expected net profit of 907 million yuan, and a downward adjustment for 2026-2027 net profits to 1.200 billion and 1.588 billion yuan respectively [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2.066 billion yuan in 2024, 2.684 billion yuan in 2025, 3.455 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.474 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 25.18%, 29.93%, 28.72%, and 29.50% [1][9] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 673 million yuan in 2024, 907 million yuan in 2025, 1.200 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.588 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.08%, 34.78%, 32.32%, and 32.27% [1][9] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 4.77 yuan in 2024, 6.43 yuan in 2025, 8.51 yuan in 2026, and 11.26 yuan in 2027 [1][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a divergence in brand performance, with increased expenses leading to pressure on net profit. The company is focusing on high-quality and sustainable development, which has resulted in strategic investments despite a challenging domestic consumption environment [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 5,254 million, with a decline to 5,068 million in 2025, followed by a recovery to 5,860 million by 2027. - Net profit is expected to decrease from 697.85 million in 2023 to 404.65 million in 2025, before increasing to 541.66 million in 2027 [1][8]. - **Brand Performance**: - Revenue changes for various brands in H1 2025: Baoxini (-9.60%), Haggis (+8.37%), Baonia (-22.53%), Lefeiye (+20.48%), and Kaimiqie & TB (-11.41%). Lefeiye's growth is attributed to its positioning in the outdoor segment [7]. - **Channel Performance**: - Online sales increased by 17.65%, while direct sales grew by 2.33%. However, franchise and group purchase channels saw declines of 16.66% and 20.94%, respectively [7]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Gross margin remained stable, slightly increasing to 68.39%. However, the expense ratio rose significantly, leading to a net profit margin decline to 8.25% [7][8]. - **Cash Flow and Inventory Management**: - Operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 0.95 billion, down 31.92% year-on-year, primarily due to decreased revenue and increased brand investments. Inventory was well-controlled, with a reduction of 5.52% from the beginning of the year [7]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down to 4.05 billion and 4.74 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14 and 12 [7][8].