证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·非银金融 非银金融行业跟踪周报 寿险保费 8 月大幅增长；境外机构开展债券 回购业务进一步放开 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 09 月 28 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 罗宇康 执业证书：S0600525090002 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -14% -11% -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 2024/9/30 2025/1/28 2025/5/28 2025/9/25 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究 《保险行业 8 月保费：寿险单月保费 强势增长，财险非车业务短期承压》 2025-09-26 《基本面向好趋势确定性高，保险/券 商估值修复均可期》 2025-09-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 非银行金融子行业近期表现：最近 5 个交易日（2025 年 09 月 22 日-2025 年 09 月 26 日）非银金融各子板块均跑输沪深 300 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report Core Views - The convertible bond market has experienced several stages in the past 1 - 2 months, with structured sector and individual bond opportunities increasing. The new energy sector (wind, solar, and storage) is a key area, with a preference for storage over wind and solar. The photovoltaic industry chain prices are expected to bottom - out and rebound, and upstream may benefit first [2][39][40] - Currently, it is too early to switch between high - and low - priced bonds in the new energy direction. The risk - return ratio is still acceptable, and it is recommended to seize the right - hand side opportunities under linear extrapolation of expectations [40] - The top ten convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Pufa Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond, Jinneng Convertible Bond, etc. [2][40] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Market Review 1.1 Equity Market - The equity market rose overall from September 22 - 26, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.06%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.96%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.07%. However, most industries declined, with 7 out of 31 Shenwan primary industries rising, and 3 industries rising more than 2%. The power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and electronics industries led the gains [7][9][13] - The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by about 1997.73 billion yuan to 22950.61 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 8.01% [9] 1.2 Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market rose 0.94% from September 22 - 26, 2025. 21 out of 29 Shenwan primary industries rose, with 2 industries rising more than 2%. The electronics, national defense and military industry, and power equipment industries led the gains [16] - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 845.82 billion yuan, a significant increase of 60.53 billion yuan, but a week - on - week decrease of 6.68%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume had an average trading volume of 97.89 billion yuan, with the first - ranked bond reaching 134.73 billion yuan [16] - About 63.62% of individual convertible bonds rose, with about 28.40% rising in the 0 - 1% range and 20.66% rising more than 2% [16] - The overall market conversion premium rate continued to rise, with different trends in different price and parity intervals. 25 industries' conversion premium rates widened, and 6 industries' conversion parities increased [22][27][31] 1.3 Stock - Bond Market Sentiment Comparison - Overall, the convertible bond market had better trading sentiment this week. However, the trading sentiment varied by trading day. On Monday and Wednesday, the stock market had better trading sentiment, while on Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday, the convertible bond market had better trading sentiment [34][35] 2. Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The convertible bond market has experienced several stages, and structured opportunities are more important. The new energy sector is a key area, with balanced and relatively low - priced targets in the power equipment sector having high win - rates and odds [2][37][39] - It is too early to switch between high - and low - priced bonds in the new energy direction. It is recommended to focus on the storage sector, followed by the wind and solar sectors. Pay attention to companies like Tong 22 and Jingneng in the photovoltaic industry [40] - The top ten convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Pufa Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond, Jinneng Convertible Bond, Liqun Convertible Bond, Liuyao Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond 2, Nenghua Convertible Bond, Qixiang Convertible Bond 2, Jiangong Convertible Bond, and Jiayue Convertible Bond [40]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20250928 国庆假期海外市场前瞻 2025 年 09 月 28 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：本周美国强劲的经济数据一度令降息预期降温，加之美联储 官员偏鹰派发言、鲍威尔对于美股"估值过高"的评价，美股高开低走、 美债收益率和美元指数反弹。9 月彭博调查显示分析师显著上调 25Q3- 26Q2 美国增长预期，并预期 10、12 月美联储连续降息、2026 年降息 2 次。国庆假期期间，海外将迎来美国 9 月就业数据、PMI 和进出口数 据，其中 9 月非农就业将是影响 10 月 FOMC 会议决策的最重要数据。 我们预计美国就业延续供需双弱、相对均衡的局面。 ◼ 大类资产：本周主要大类资产走势震荡，美股高开低走，黄金续创新高； 后半周美国强劲的经济数据一度令降息预期降温，美股回调、美债收益 率 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company has successfully issued a convertible bond totaling over 1.1 billion RMB, with over 600 million RMB allocated for the construction of an intelligent factory for semiconductor thin film deposition equipment and 227 million RMB for the expansion of R&D laboratories, enhancing its production capacity and technological capabilities [3] - The company is a leader in ALD/CVD equipment in China, achieving mass production and delivery of various key processes, with clients across multiple sectors including logic, storage, advanced packaging, and new displays [3] - The forecast for the company's net profit for 2025-2027 is maintained at 280 million, 370 million, and 480 million RMB, corresponding to a current P/E ratio of 87, 66, and 50 times [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,680 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 145.39%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 270.39 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 399.33% [3][9] - The semiconductor equipment revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 190 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, with a significant rise in order backlog to over 2.3 billion RMB, up 73% year-on-year [8][9] - The company plans to implement a stock incentive plan for 420 employees, accounting for 27.74% of the total workforce, with performance targets set for net profit margin and new semiconductor equipment orders from 2025 to 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The subsidiary, Songci Electromechanical, has launched CVD fluidized bed equipment to expand into the solid-state battery sector, which is crucial for the commercialization of next-generation batteries [7] - The company has formed a strategic partnership with Yili Technology for solid-state battery equipment, which is expected to benefit from Yili's planned production capacity of 26GWh over the next five years [7] - The company has secured overseas orders for its optical module AOI detection equipment, which is anticipated to significantly enhance production capacity and precision in semiconductor manufacturing [7] - The financial forecast indicates a decline in net profit for 2025, but the semiconductor and lithium battery businesses are expected to continue growing, justifying the "Buy" rating [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 9,198 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 45.94%, followed by a decline to 7,092 million yuan in 2025 [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,273 million yuan in 2024, decreasing to 729 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 42.69% [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 4.04 yuan in 2024, dropping to 2.31 yuan in 2025 [1][8] - The current P/E ratio is approximately 12.50 for 2024 and 21.81 for 2025, indicating a valuation adjustment in line with profit expectations [1][8]

I. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. II. Core View of the Report The report provides a weekly data tracking of secondary capital bonds from September 22 to September 26, 2025, covering primary market issuance, secondary market trading, and valuation deviation of individual bonds [1][2][3]. III. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Primary Market Issuance - There were no new issuances of secondary capital bonds in the inter - bank market and the exchange market during the week from September 22 to September 26, 2025 [1]. 2. Secondary Market Trading - **Trading Volume**: The total weekly trading volume of secondary capital bonds was approximately 229.9 billion yuan, an increase of 52.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The top three bonds in terms of trading volume were 25 Agricultural Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 03B(BC) (54.049 billion yuan), 25 Agricultural Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 03A(BC) (16.307 billion yuan), and 25 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 01BC (7.88 billion yuan) [2]. - **Trading Volume by Region**: The top three regions in terms of trading volume were Beijing, Shanghai, and Fujian, with trading volumes of approximately 189 billion yuan, 12.7 billion yuan, and 7.9 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Yield to Maturity**: As of September 26, the yield to maturity of 5Y secondary capital bonds with ratings of AAA -, AA +, and AA increased by 17.93BP, 17.31BP, and 16.31BP respectively compared to the previous week; for 7Y secondary capital bonds, the increases were 18.31BP, 18.26BP, and 18.26BP respectively; for 10Y secondary capital bonds, the increases were 16.19BP, 16.82BP, and 16.82BP respectively [2][10]. 3. Valuation Deviation of Top 30 Individual Bonds - **Overall Situation**: The overall valuation deviation of the weekly average trading price of secondary capital bonds was not significant during the week from September 22 to September 26, 2025. The proportion of discount transactions was less than that of premium transactions, and the discount range was smaller than the premium range [3]. - **Discount Bonds**: The top three bonds with the highest discount rates were 17 Fushun Bank Secondary (- 0.3988%), 21 Deqing Rural Commercial Bank Secondary (- 0.3851%), and 22 Yongcheng Rural Commercial Bank Secondary (- 0.3606%). The Zhongzheng implicit ratings were mainly AAA -, AA +, and AA, and the bonds were mostly distributed in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong [3][12]. - **Premium Bonds**: The top three bonds with the highest premium rates were 24 China Construction Bank Secondary Capital Bond 02B (1.2298%), 24 Guangfa Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.8398%), and 23 China Construction Bank Secondary Capital Bond 02B (0.8050%). The Zhongzheng implicit ratings were mainly AAA -, AA +, and AA -, and the bonds were mostly distributed in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong [3][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, with a focus on AI equipment and oil service equipment [1]. Core Insights - The rapid development of AI chips is expected to drive demand for advanced testing and packaging equipment, particularly in the semiconductor sector [2][20]. - The PCB equipment market is set to benefit from significant investments in AI infrastructure, with major players expanding their production capacities [3][44]. - The oil service equipment sector is poised for growth due to Saudi Aramco's plans to initiate 85 major projects over the next three years, which will create substantial demand for related products and services [9]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Equipment - The demand for high-performance testing machines is increasing due to the complexity of AI chips and advanced storage chips, which require enhanced testing capabilities [2][21]. - The advanced packaging technology CoWoS is crucial for GPU and HBM interconnects, leading to a surge in demand for advanced packaging equipment [2][22]. - The semiconductor testing equipment market is projected to exceed $13.8 billion by 2025, with significant contributions from SoC and storage testing machines [21]. PCB Equipment - The AI infrastructure investment by Alibaba is expected to significantly boost the PCB market, with leading companies expanding their high-end HDI production capacities [3][4]. - The report highlights the increasing complexity and investment inflation in PCB production processes, particularly in drilling and exposure stages [4][44]. - Major PCB manufacturers are actively expanding their capacities to meet the rising demand for high-performance PCBs driven by AI servers [44][46]. Oil Service Equipment - Saudi Aramco's upcoming projects will require extensive procurement of materials and equipment, benefiting companies with technological advantages in the oil service sector [9]. - Companies like Neway and Jereh are well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for oil service equipment due to their established relationships and capabilities [9]. Carbon Silicon - The report emphasizes the potential of single crystal silicon carbide (SiC) in enhancing the performance of CoWoS structures, which is critical for high-power GPU applications [5]. - The successful launch of a 12-inch SiC substrate processing line by Jing Sheng marks a significant advancement in domestic SiC technology [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Huafeng Measurement and Changchuan Technology for testing equipment, and Jing Sheng for packaging equipment, as they are expected to benefit from the growth in AI chip production [2][22]. - In the PCB sector, companies like Dazhu CNC and East China Electric are recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential [43][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 3.52%, ranking it lower among all primary industries. Precious metals outperformed with a 5.55% increase, while industrial metals rose by 5.15% [1][15]. - Economic data from the U.S. exceeded expectations, leading to a decline in interest rate cut expectations. Precious metals are expected to benefit from the rapid decline in real interest rates since August [1][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, with the non-ferrous metals sector increasing by 3.52%, outperforming the index by 3.31 percentage points [15]. - Among the sub-sectors, precious metals increased by 5.55%, industrial metals by 5.15%, while small metals and new materials declined [15]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper rose due to supply concerns from the Grasberg mine incident in Indonesia. As of September 26, LME copper was priced at $10,205 per ton, up 2.09% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥82,470 per ton, up 3.20% [2][34]. Supply is tightening due to significant maintenance in domestic smelting plants and the mine incident affecting production [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices recorded a slight decline, with LME aluminum at $2,649 per ton, down 1.01%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,745 per ton, down 0.24% [3][39]. Demand remains weak despite pre-holiday stocking, and overall theoretical demand has decreased [3]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell, with LME zinc at $2,887 per ton, down 0.41%, and SHFE zinc at ¥21,980 per ton, down 0.29% [42]. Inventory levels showed mixed trends, with LME inventory decreasing while SHFE inventory increased [42]. - **Tin**: Tin prices increased slightly, with LME tin at $34,415 per ton, up 0.57%, and SHFE tin at ¥274,070 per ton, up 1.97% [47]. Supply issues persist due to slow recovery in Myanmar and ongoing maintenance in domestic production [47]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Gold prices reached new highs, with COMEX gold at $3,789.80 per ounce, up 1.89%, and SHFE gold at ¥856.06 per gram, up 3.07% [4][51]. Positive U.S. economic data has led to a slight reduction in interest rate cut expectations, supporting gold prices [4][52]. The report emphasizes that the current macro narrative favors precious metals due to the expected continuation of declining real interest rates [4][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - External environment factors such as interest rate fluctuations, bond supply - demand, and policy orientation jointly impact bond investment returns. In H1 2025, the bond investment of 42 listed banks showed certain characteristics in scale, structure, and profit and loss, but there are still challenges in maintaining stable returns in the future [1]. - The overall bond investment scale of 42 listed banks expanded steadily in H1 2025. There were differences in the investment structure among different types of banks, with state - owned banks and city commercial banks having stable growth in the bond allocation portfolio, while joint - stock banks and rural commercial banks increased their efforts in the bond trading portfolio. The bond investment portfolio generally presented a pattern of "stable foundation and flexible gain" [1]. - The coupon income of 42 listed banks was generally stable in H1 2025 but showed a slight year - on - year decline. The fair value change loss was significant, and the investment income increased. However, the bond investment of the banking industry still faces pressure to maintain stable returns [1]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 42 Listed Banks' Bond Investment Volume - **Overall Bond Investment Scale: Steady Expansion**: In H1 2025, the total scale of the three types of bond - type financial assets of 42 listed banks showed a steady expansion trend. The growth of debt investment - type financial assets measured at amortized cost was relatively slow, while the growth of trading financial assets measured at fair value and included in current profits and losses was relatively large, indicating that banks increased the proportion of trading positions [9]. - **Differentiated Bond Investment Distribution Structures among Different Bank Types**: In H1 2025, state - owned banks and city commercial banks showed stable growth in the bond allocation portfolio, which may be related to their participation in the primary - market issuance of important national and regional bond varieties. Joint - stock banks and rural commercial banks slightly weakened their bond allocation power but significantly increased their efforts in the bond trading portfolio, showing a differentiated feature of "stable allocation by large banks and prominent trading flexibility by small and medium - sized banks" [13]. - **Bond Investment Allocation Tilted towards Government - Related Bonds**: In H1 2025, commercial banks increased their allocation of government - related bonds, with an average month - on - month increase of about 10% for state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks, and a slightly smaller increase for rural commercial banks. The allocation of financial bonds and other bonds was differentiated. All banks held a relatively large scale of government - related bonds, followed by financial bonds and credit - related bonds [18]. - **Correlation between Financial Asset Types and Bond Variety Structures**: The banking industry maintained a stable growth of interest - rate bonds in the bond allocation portfolio and increased the allocation of credit bonds, while the allocation of financial bonds was relatively weak. In the bond trading portfolio, interest - rate bonds and financial bonds were the core varieties, with a more significant increase than credit bonds, showing a "stable foundation and flexible gain" pattern [22]. 3.2 42 Listed Banks' Bond Investment Profit and Loss - **Coupon Income: Generally Stable and Still the Main Source of Income**: In H1 2025, the total coupon income of 42 listed banks decreased slightly year - on - year. Although the scale of held - to - maturity bonds increased, the decline in the coupon rate of newly issued bonds led to a decrease in coupon income. In the future, coupon income is still expected to be the main source of bond investment income for commercial banks [26]. - **Fair Value Change Loss: Losses in the Trading Level**: In H1 2025, the total fair value change loss of 42 listed banks decreased significantly year - on - year, indicating that it was difficult to obtain capital gains through short - term trading in the volatile bond market, and there were floating losses in bond trading [28]. - **Investment Income: Growth in All Bank Types**: In H1 2025, the actual investment income of 42 listed banks in the bond field increased significantly year - on - year. Although the book value appreciation of bond - type trading financial assets and other debt investment - type financial assets was not as good as that of the previous year, banks could still increase their investment income by selling floating - profit old bonds and waiting for the maturity of high - coupon bonds [31]. 3.3 Attribution and Summary - **External Environment Driving Factors: Interest Rate Fluctuations, Bond Supply - Demand, and Policy Orientation Jointly Impact Bond Investment Returns**: In H1 2025, the "more adjustments and fewer opportunities" bond market environment led to a general decline in the prices of existing bonds, resulting in a significant year - on - year decline in the fair value change loss of listed banks' bond investment. The supply of national bonds, local government bonds, and policy - based financial bonds increased, but the coupon rate of newly issued bonds decreased, leading to a decline in coupon income. Regulatory policies indirectly affected bond investment performance [35]. - **Banking Industry's Bond Investment Pressure and Future Outlook** - Overall Income Shows a Positive Trend but There Are Still Hidden Concerns: In H1 2025, the actual bond investment income of 42 listed banks increased slightly year - on - year, but the coupon income faced downward pressure in the interest - rate downward cycle, and it was more difficult to obtain spread income through band trading. Since H2 2025, the "stock - strong and bond - weak" pattern has emerged, and the loss caused by fair value change will be more obvious [3]. - Different Bank Types Show Differentiated Performance, and State - owned Banks' Pressure Is Relatively Controllable: State - owned banks can maintain a certain profit - making ability in the low - interest - rate volatile bond market due to their advantages in bond allocation and trading portfolios. Joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks are more vulnerable, and they may increase their capital allocation in the equity market, commodity market, and related structured fixed - income products in the future [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the National Day holiday has a significant calendar effect, with a tendency for the market to decline before the holiday and rise afterward, indicating a pattern in trading behavior and economic cycles [1][9][8] - Statistical analysis shows that the win rates and median returns for the Shanghai Composite Index are generally negative in the days leading up to the holiday, while they turn positive in the days following it, particularly with a win rate exceeding 80% in the first five days after the holiday [1][9][10] - The report suggests that the best buying opportunity occurs in the two days before the National Day holiday, followed by a rapid market rebound post-holiday, supported by increased trading volume [2][3][4] Group 2 - The report identifies that sectors such as food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals show strong performance before the holiday, while post-holiday, there is an increased focus on large financial sectors [4][12][13] - It notes that the market dynamics shift from large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks before the holiday to small-cap stocks showing greater elasticity and performance after the holiday [3][4][25] - The underlying factors influencing these trends include risk expectations related to the holiday, quarterly settlement demands, and changes in investor behavior due to holiday breaks [2][3][4]