Market Performance - On September 26, 2025, the North Exchange 50 index fell by 1.81%, while the Sci-Tech 50 index decreased by 1.61%[18] - The A-share index declined by 0.65%, and the ChiNext index dropped by 2.60%[18] - The average market capitalization of the 277 constituent stocks in the North Exchange is 3.136 billion, with a trading volume of 19.456 billion, down by 1.464 billion from the previous trading day[18] Company Announcements - YinTu Network announced a pre-disclosure of share reduction by its shareholders, with the controlling shareholder planning to reduce holdings by up to 350,000 shares, representing 0.58% of total shares[29] Industry News - The Trump administration is considering a new policy requiring semiconductor imports to match domestic production, with companies failing to comply facing substantial tariffs[16] - Meituan's autonomous delivery vehicle has received the first city-level trial for cross-regional delivery in Shenzhen, covering key districts[17] Risk Warnings - Risks include individual stock earnings falling short of expectations, intensified industry competition, increased trade frictions, and policies not meeting expectations[30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Insights - In August, the life insurance sector experienced a strong premium growth of 49.7% year-on-year, significantly up from July's growth rate [4] - The report anticipates a gradual decline in premium growth rates post-September, as the surge in August is attributed to the "stop炒" effect of old products amid a backdrop of lowered preset interest rates [4] - The health insurance sector's premium growth remained stable at 2.6% year-on-year in August, with a long-term growth potential identified through the integration of health management and insurance services [4] - The property insurance sector saw a modest premium growth of 0.9% in August, primarily impacted by a decline in non-auto insurance premiums [4] - The report highlights that leading insurance companies maintain robust growth and quality in their business, particularly in auto insurance, where lower loss ratios enhance profitability [4] - The valuation of the insurance sector remains at historical lows, with expected PEV ratios between 0.57-0.85 and PB ratios between 1.02-2.16 for 2025, indicating significant upside potential [4] Summary by Sections Life Insurance - August's life insurance premiums reached CNY 4,645 billion, marking a 49.7% year-on-year increase, with a cumulative premium of CNY 37,999 billion for the first eight months of 2025, up 11.3% year-on-year [4] - The report notes a shift towards dividend insurance products as a response to the changing interest rate environment [4] Health Insurance - Health insurance premiums in August grew by 2.6%, with a cumulative growth of 2.4% for the first eight months of 2025 [4] - The report emphasizes the potential for health insurance to expand through a comprehensive health ecosystem [4] Property Insurance - Property insurance premiums in August increased by 0.9%, with a cumulative growth of 4.7% for the first eight months of 2025 [4] - The report indicates that the growth in auto insurance premiums is supported by the rising penetration of new energy vehicles [4] Market Outlook - The report suggests that both liability and asset sides of the insurance companies are improving, with a favorable outlook for the industry as a whole [4] - The anticipated recovery in long-term interest rates could alleviate pressure on investment yields for insurance companies [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated confidence through multiple share buybacks, with a total of up to HKD 100 million planned for repurchase, reflecting management's commitment to shareholder returns [7] - The company is expected to open 1,000 new stores this year, capitalizing on the growing demand in lower-tier markets, with a strong performance in the first half of 2025 [7] - The company's operating capabilities have been validated, with a significant increase in profitability and a low valuation, making it a recommended investment [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 72.9 billion, RMB 83.9 billion, and RMB 95.5 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 13%, 15%, and 14% respectively [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 4.2 billion, RMB 5.0 billion, and RMB 5.8 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 81%, 19%, and 17% respectively [1] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from RMB 0.15 in 2025 to RMB 0.21 in 2027 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the independent energy storage sector, highlighting the economic viability and significant demand growth in the market [2][3]. Core Insights - The transition from mandatory energy storage to independent energy storage is underway, with local governments implementing capacity price compensation policies to establish a market-oriented revenue mechanism [2][3]. - The domestic energy storage demand forecast has been revised upward, with expectations of continued strong growth, particularly in regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [2][3]. - The supply of energy storage cells is expected to remain tight until the second half of 2026, benefiting leading companies in the industry [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative business models and integrated system solutions, which are expected to enhance profitability for companies with technological and resource advantages [2][3]. Summary by Sections PART 1: Capacity Price Policies and Independent Storage Models - The shift from mandatory energy storage to independent storage is supported by new policies that provide stable cash flow through capacity price compensation [2][3]. - The report outlines the differences in revenue structures and economic viability between mandatory and independent storage models, with independent storage showing superior profitability potential [11][36]. PART 2: Revised Domestic Energy Storage Demand Forecast - The report projects that domestic energy storage installations will reach 149 GWh in 2025 and 194 GWh in 2026, with a long-term forecast of 340 GWh by 2030 [2][3]. - The demand for energy storage is significantly driven by the development of data centers, which are expected to account for one-third of total energy storage demand by 2030 [2][3]. PART 3: Supply Constraints and High-Quality Development - The report anticipates a continued shortage of energy storage cells until the second half of 2026, with global demand expected to reach 521 GWh in 2025 and 710 GWh in 2026 [2][3]. - The focus on high-quality development in the energy storage industry is expected to benefit leading companies, as well as improve the performance of second-tier players [2][3]. PART 4: Valuation Comparison and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as CATL, Sungrow, and others, while also highlighting the potential of emerging players in the market [2][3]. - The overall sentiment is bullish on the large-scale energy storage sector, driven by strong demand in Europe and emerging markets, as well as favorable policies in the U.S. [2][3].

Macro Strategy - The current economic situation indicates increasing pressure on stabilizing investment and consumption, suggesting that a new round of growth stabilization policies is imminent. The investment recovery is expected to be challenging, with cumulative fixed asset investment growth at 0.5% for the first eight months of the year, necessitating coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [25][26] - The anticipated timing for policy implementation is around mid to late October, with expectations that the new policies will not be as urgent as last year, given the current economic performance is better than in 2022 [25][26] - The direction of the new policies may include early use of debt quotas, introduction of new policy financial tools, and potential monetary policy easing to lower costs for home purchases and business investments [25][26] Macro Depth Report - The correlation coefficient between stock and bond returns is projected to rise from -0.238 in August to between -0.216 and -0.229 from September to November 2025, indicating a continuing upward trend in this correlation [27][28] - For portfolio management, it is suggested to allocate only 3% to 5% in stock indices to control maximum drawdown and volatility, with an optimal stock allocation ratio estimated between 18% and 21% [29] Industry Insights - The diesel generator market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 12.5 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53%. The market is driven by the increasing demand for backup power in data centers and other commercial facilities [21] - The domestic diesel generator market is currently dominated by foreign and joint ventures, which account for 83% of the market share, indicating substantial room for domestic manufacturers to capture market share through local production and technological advancements [21] - Investment recommendations include focusing on domestic manufacturers such as Weichai Power and Yuchai International, which are well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand and potential for domestic substitution [21] Automotive Industry - The year 2025 marks a pivotal point for automotive intelligence, with expectations for electric vehicle penetration rates to reach 50%-80% over the next three years. Major players in intelligent driving have successfully implemented complex scenarios in urban environments [19][20] - A comparative evaluation of ten intelligent driving suppliers indicates that advancements in driving capabilities are narrowing the gap between leading and emerging players, with significant improvements noted in the second tier of suppliers [19][20]

证券研究报告 北证A股：聚焦"专精特新"主阵地， 政策红利驱动系统性重估，中长期配置价值明确 证券分析师：朱洁羽 执业证书编号：S0600520090004 联系邮箱：zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 二零二五年九月二十六日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心要点 ➢ 一、政策端：服务创新型中小企业主阵地，制度体系持续完善 1）全面920时代来临：2025年10月9日起，北证存量股票将启用920开头新代码，有望提高北证A股辨识度，凸显北交所作为中国第三大证券交易所的独立地位，并为指数编制、行情独立 展示及衍生金融产品创新奠定基础。"深改19 条"后北交所高质量建设稳步推进中，后续公开市场可转债、场内ETF基金、优化发行上市机制等政策有望渐次落地，吸引更多增量资金入场。 2）再融资与并购重组：北交所秉持"小额、快速、灵活、多元"的再融资审核理念，逐步完善融资制度。开市以来，北交所已实施的再融资募集资金总额达14.70亿元，平均为2.45亿元。 并购重组方面，2025年5月16日，北交所修订重大资产重组规则，引入"小额快速"审核机制和重组简易审核程序。2025年5月30日，北交所受理首单重大资产重组— ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is positioned to build a solid profit foundation through its ternary materials, with significant advancements in solid-state materials expected to create key competitive advantages [8] - The forecast for the company's net profit has been raised significantly, with expected net profits of 800 million, 1.05 billion, and 1.37 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 70%, 31%, and 30% [8] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in Europe, with a target of 60% of international customers, primarily supplying to major players like LG and SK [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to recover from 7.59 billion yuan in 2024 to 19.99 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 35.61% from 2025 to 2027 [1][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.87 yuan in 2024 to 2.51 yuan in 2027, indicating a strong upward trend in profitability [1][9] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 73.61 in 2024 to 25.39 in 2027, suggesting improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [1][9] Market Position and Strategy - The company has achieved significant milestones in solid-state lithium battery materials, with 10-ton level shipments and collaborations with multiple solid-state battery clients [8] - The ternary cathode materials are expected to see shipments of 60,000, 80,000, and 110,000 tons from 2025 to 2027, with a year-on-year growth of 50%, 33%, and 38% respectively [8] - The company is also advancing in the production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) materials, with expected shipments of 110,000, 200,000, and 300,000 tons from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 90%, 100%, and 50% [8]

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略深度报告 策略深度报告 20250925 港股央企红利，底仓配置优选——景顺长城 中证国新港股通央企红利 ETF 投资价值分 析 [Table_Summary] ◼ 看好港股红利的长期配置价值 1）配置视角：红利资产胜率占优，具备长期底仓配置价值。今年以来（截 至 9 月 18 日，后同），港股红利资产在市场波动中展现出极佳韧性，收益 回撤比高达 2.2 倍。未来中国资产牛仍将持续，红利资产虽在弹性上不及 成长板块，但仍凭借其高股息率与低波动率的特性，具备显著的绝对收益 配置价值。 2）政策视角：政策推动红利资产吸引力提升。2024 年至今，A 股上市公 司分红力度明显加大，政策支持为红利资产注入长期估值重塑动能。此外， 债券增值税新规或间接利好红利类资产。 3）资金视角：险资等长钱配置需求有望持续释放。当成长风格占据主导 时，部分交易型资金可能向成长板块迁移；但险资为代表的中长期资金基 于负债端久期匹配与收益稳定的需求，仍将为红利资产带来长期稳定的资 金流入。 4）红利资产内部：港股>A 股：港股恒生高股息指数的股息率为 6.14%， 经税后的实际收益水平仍优于 A 股同类资产。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific investment recommendations for individual companies or suppliers in the intelligent driving sector [4][9]. Core Insights - 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for automotive intelligence, with a projected increase in domestic electrification penetration rates to 50%-80% over the next three years, leading to a reshaping of the automotive landscape [4]. - Major intelligent driving manufacturers have successfully implemented complex urban NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) experiences, enhancing high-level functionalities such as parking and scene understanding [4]. - The report evaluates the intelligent driving experiences of ten manufacturers, including XPeng, NIO, and Tesla, through both large sample and small sample road tests, focusing on various dimensions such as scene implementation and comfort [4][9]. Summary by Sections Road Test Overview - The report includes both large sample concentrated road tests and small sample deep road tests to assess the performance of intelligent driving systems [8][27]. - The large sample tests involved approximately 50 participants testing various models along a standardized route, while the small sample tests were conducted by the same evaluators under similar conditions [9][27]. Intelligent Driving Models Tested - The models tested in September 2025 include XPeng P7, NIO ES8, and Tesla Model 3, among others, with specific versions noted for each [10][11]. Performance Evaluation - Compared to Q1 2025, Q3 2025 shows improvements in intelligent driving capabilities across all manufacturers, with a narrowing gap between the leading and following manufacturers [4]. - The report highlights that new entrants in the self-research sector are showing promising performance, with significant iterations expected in the coming months [4]. Specific Model Insights - XPeng's XOS 5.7.7 demonstrated excellent performance with an average takeover frequency of 1.51 times, showcasing strong capabilities in complex scenarios [34]. - The NIO ES8 with cedar model achieved an average takeover frequency of 2.03, indicating robust performance in urban environments [43]. - Tesla's FSD version 13.2 recorded a higher average takeover frequency of 5.73, suggesting areas for improvement in its intelligent driving capabilities [49]. Technical Developments - The report notes advancements in hardware and software across various manufacturers, with many now utilizing self-developed chips and algorithms [26][24]. - Specific improvements in driving comfort and efficiency were reported, with some models achieving significant enhancements in user experience metrics [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AIDC diesel generator market, indicating high demand and potential for domestic manufacturers to replace foreign counterparts [2]. Core Insights - Diesel generators are a key growth point for diesel engines, with applications in remote power supply, data centers, and industrial facilities [2][18]. - The demand for diesel generators is expected to accelerate due to increased capital expenditure (CAPEX) in the AI sector, with North American CSPs projected to spend approximately $340 billion in 2025, a 49% year-on-year increase [2][30]. - The domestic diesel generator market is currently dominated by foreign and joint-venture companies, which hold an 83% market share, leaving significant room for domestic manufacturers to grow [2][41]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies like Weichai Power, Yuchai International, and Weichai Heavy Machinery, which are well-positioned to benefit from the market dynamics [2]. Industry Trends - The AIDC infrastructure is experiencing high demand, with diesel generators playing a critical role in ensuring power reliability for data centers [5][18]. - The diesel engine market is closely tied to the commercial vehicle cycle, with generator sales showing consistent growth [11][12]. - The market for diesel generators is projected to reach 12.5 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 53% year-on-year increase, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2024 to 2028 [34]. Market Dynamics - The global diesel generator market is expected to grow from $3 billion in 2023 to $12 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 22% [17][34]. - The report highlights that diesel generators account for 2-3% of the capital expenditure for large data centers, emphasizing their importance in infrastructure investment [24][27]. - Domestic manufacturers are expected to gain market share as they improve production capacity and respond to demand more effectively than foreign competitors [2][41]. Supply Chain and Key Players - The supply chain includes three main segments: engines, OEMs, and component suppliers, all of which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for diesel generators [42]. - Key players in the engine segment include Cummins, MTU, and Weichai Power, with significant revenue contributions from diesel generator sales [43][44]. - The report identifies specific companies to watch, including Weichai Heavy Machinery and KOTAI Power, which are focusing on the diesel generator OEM market [65].