证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 利元亨（688499） 证券分析师 周尔双 执业证书：S0600515110002 021-60199784 zhouersh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李文意 执业证书：S0600524080005 liwenyi@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,994 | 2,482 | 3,139 | 4,004 | 4,943 | | 同比（%） | 18.81 | (50.30) | 26.47 | 27.55 | 23.46 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (188.02) | (1,044.13) | 80.35 | 161.03 | 217.47 | | 同比（%） | (164.94) | (455.34) | 107.70 | 100.42 | 35.05 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (1.11) ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 13.904 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.568 billion yuan, up 67.5% year-on-year [7] - In Q3, the company's revenue grew by 23.2% year-on-year and 3.6% quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased sales of yarn and electronic fabric products [7] - The gross margin for Q3 was 32.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6 percentage points [7] - The company is expected to benefit from improved industry conditions, with supply shocks subsiding and downstream demand remaining resilient, leading to a gradual recovery in profitability [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 14.876 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 18.432 billion yuan in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.25% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 2.445 billion yuan in 2024A to 3.509 billion yuan in 2025E, indicating a growth rate of 43.53% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.88 yuan in 2025E, with a P/E ratio of 18.08 [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, increasing the proportion of mid-to-high-end products, and developing new products to enhance profitability [7] - The industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in pricing and profitability due to reduced new capacity and improved supply-demand balance [7] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 3.509 billion yuan in 2025E, 4.301 billion yuan in 2026E, and 4.975 billion yuan in 2027E, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 15, and 13 [7] - The overall industry outlook is positive, with expectations of price increases in electronic fabrics supported by improved downstream demand [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The demand for ultra-high voltage GIS remains robust, and the company's performance is generally in line with market expectations [2][8] - The company has a strong order backlog, with expectations for revenue growth in the high-voltage segment of 5-10% for the year [8] - The GIL business is expected to become a significant growth driver, benefiting from ongoing projects and international market opportunities [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 11,077 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.44% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 815.71 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 284.47% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is estimated at 0.60 yuan per share for 2023, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 28.56 [1] - For 2025, total revenue is expected to be 13,320 million yuan, with a net profit of 1,285.21 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 25.61% [1][9] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is projected to be 3,008 million yuan in 2024, with a significant improvement in cash flow management [9]

Macro Strategy - The GDP growth rate remains resilient, with an expectation to achieve the annual growth target of 5% [9] - In Q3, GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, while cumulative growth for the first three quarters was 5.2% [9] - Industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [9] - Exports outperformed expectations with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, while domestic consumption showed pressure with a growth of 3.0% [9] - The report suggests that the current economic environment may lead to potential monetary easing in Q4 [2] Fixed Income - The report discusses opportunities in the Sci-Tech bond ETF, emphasizing the inclusion criteria for bonds with an implied rating of AA+ or higher [3] - It highlights the preference for smaller-scale bonds (40 billion or below) and the focus on public company bonds and financial bonds [3] - The report indicates that bonds issued by central state-owned enterprises are more likely to be included in the ETF [3] Industry Analysis Dazhu CNC (301200) - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 66.53% year-on-year, reaching 39.03 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [17] - The net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 142.19% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for AI computing power [17] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with profit forecasts of 6.97 billion, 11.43 billion, and 17.30 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [17] CATL (300750) - The company revised its net profit forecast upwards to 690 billion, 862 billion, and 1066 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a growth of 36%, 25%, and 24% respectively [8] - The report maintains a "buy" rating with a target price of 567 yuan for 2026 [8] Yanjing Beer (000729) - The company is expected to benefit from the growth of its flagship product U8, with net profit forecasts of 16.02 billion, 19.11 billion, and 22.62 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [8] - The report maintains a "buy" rating based on the company's strong dividend policy and growth potential [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a continuous increase in net profit margin, with expectations for further catalysts in the future [7] - The company is entering a phase of efficiency improvement, with significant growth in revenue and net profit projected for the coming years [7] - The valuation is considered to have a sufficient margin of safety, with a projected P/E ratio of around 20X for 2026 [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is expected to achieve total revenue of 48.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.54% [1] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.29 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 338.52% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 6.81 yuan per share for 2025 [1] - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 5.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1 percentage points [7] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 12.1%, up by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [7] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company achieved a revenue of 36.56 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 77.4% [7] - The net profit for the same period was 850 million yuan, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 917% [7] - The company’s snack retail business has seen significant growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 138.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.6% [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from reduced competition and improved operational efficiency, which may lead to further increases in net profit margins [7] - New store formats for cost-saving supermarkets are being steadily piloted and promoted [7] - The company has already recovered minority shareholder rights twice, with expectations for further acquisitions to enhance the proportion of net profit attributable to the parent company [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved significant revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a revenue of 3.903 billion yuan, up 66.53% year-on-year, and a net profit of 492 million yuan, up 142.19% year-on-year, driven by AI computing demand [2] - The company's gross profit margin improved to approximately 31.7%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability [3] - Inventory increased significantly to 1.583 billion yuan, a rise of 76.22% from the beginning of the year, reflecting strong order demand [4] - The company is positioned to benefit from the booming demand for AI PCB equipment, with a focus on high-end products and strategic partnerships with leading PCB manufacturers [5] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 697 million yuan, 1.143 billion yuan, and 1.730 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 58.66, 35.77, and 23.62 [5][11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [57]. Core Views - The report highlights that September sales, including production, wholesale, retail, and exports, exceeded expectations, with significant year-on-year growth [5][10]. - The total production in September reached 101,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 69.0% and a month-on-month increase of 15.3% [5]. - The wholesale volume for September was 106,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 82.9% and a month-on-month increase of 15.2% [5]. - The terminal sales for September were 83,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 91.5% and a month-on-month increase of 25.0% [5]. - Export sales in September amounted to 31,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 28.1% and a month-on-month increase of 15.2% [5]. - The overall inventory in September decreased by 13,000 units, with a total industry inventory coefficient of 1.8, indicating a reasonable level [5][18]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In September, the production, wholesale, retail, and export figures all surpassed expectations, with terminal sales showing a strong year-on-year growth of 91.5% [5][14]. - Cumulative terminal sales from January to September reached 569,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.9% [14]. Market Structure - The report indicates that logistics vehicles outperformed engineering vehicles in September, with logistics vehicle sales at 74,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 92.8% [23]. - The market share of major manufacturers in terminal sales for September was led by Jiefang, Dongfeng, and Heavy Truck, with respective shares of 21.8%, 19.4%, and 16.6% [36]. Engine Market - Weichai maintained the leading market share in the engine segment, with a share of 19.4% in September, showing a slight increase from the previous month [43]. - The report notes that Weichai's terminal配套量 reached 16,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 80.2% [47]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power, highlighting the potential for performance improvement in FAW Jiefang and Foton Motor due to favorable policies [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Sci - tech Bond ETF has expanded again, and the adjustment of its component bonds implies opportunities. When a sci - tech bond is included in the ETF, passive funds' concentrated buying may drive up its price in the short term, creating arbitrage opportunities. In the long - run, it may benefit from liquidity optimization and credit endorsement, forming a price spill - over effect [1][8][9]. - By analyzing the rules of Sci - tech Bond ETF's component bond adjustment from September 10 to September 30, 2025, a set of forward - looking prediction frameworks can be constructed to help investors find potential component bonds and capture capital gains [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Sci - tech Bond ETF Expansion and Component Bond Adjustment Opportunities - The sci - tech bond market has expanded rapidly, and the Sci - tech Bond ETF products have emerged and developed. In 2025, the first batch of 10 Sci - tech Bond ETFs had an initial scale of 76.499 billion yuan, reaching 139.151 billion yuan by October 9, with an increase of 81.90%. The second batch of 14 Sci - tech Bond ETFs, listed on September 24, had an initial scale of 104.566 billion yuan, reaching 113.441 billion yuan by October 9, with an increase of 8.49% [8]. - When a sci - tech bond is included in the ETF, passive funds' concentrated buying can push up its price and create arbitrage opportunities. In the long - run, it may benefit from liquidity and credit, forming a "component bond rush" market [1][9]. 3.2 Bond Nature - related Indicators 3.2.1 Implied Rating - The Sci - tech Bond ETF shows a clear rating preference, with AA+ as an important dividing line. Bonds with an implied rating below AA+ have a low probability of being included, while those with AAA and AAA - ratings have a low probability of being removed. AAA - rated bonds are preferred, and AA+ - rated bonds can also be considered [1][14][15]. 3.2.2 Bond Scale - The Sci - tech Bond ETF uses 40 billion yuan as an important dividing line for bond scale. Small - and medium - scale bonds (within 40 billion yuan) are more likely to be included, especially those within 20 billion yuan. Larger - scale bonds have a lower inclusion probability but a lower removal probability after inclusion [1][16][17]. 3.2.3 Bond Type - The Sci - tech Bond ETF only includes public - issued corporate bonds and financial bonds, no sub - bonds. This helps ensure the ETF's circulation in the exchange market, guarantees information transparency and liquidity, and controls credit risks [1][19]. 3.2.4 Issuer's Enterprise Nature - The Sci - tech Bond ETF tends to include bonds issued by central and local state - owned enterprises. Central - state - owned - enterprise - issued bonds are preferred, and high - quality private - enterprise - issued bonds also have a chance of inclusion. Local - state - owned - enterprise - issued bonds are the main ones to be removed [1][23][24]. 3.2.5 Issuer's Industry - The Sci - tech Bond ETF prefers traditional industries such as industry, finance, and public utilities, which provide a stable value and liquidity foundation. It also actively adjusts and selectively includes emerging industries like energy and materials to balance traditional and emerging sectors [1][28][29]. 3.2.6 Bond Issuance and Remaining Terms - The Sci - tech Bond ETF mainly includes and removes medium - and short - term bonds with issuance terms of 3 - year and 5 - year and remaining terms of about 2 - 5 years. It prefers newly - issued or recently - listed bonds to ensure liquidity [1][32][33]. 3.3 Market Performance - related Indicators 3.3.1 Trading Liquidity - The Sci - tech Bond ETF prefers bonds that have been traded recently (within about two weeks) with high trading volume. Bonds with a trading turnover rate of over 3% are more likely to be included. However, non - traded bonds that meet other criteria can also be considered due to the lack of high - turnover bonds [1][2][47]. 3.3.2 Average Daily Tracking Index Deviation - Bonds with an average daily tracking index deviation of less than 0.04% are more likely to be included, and those with a deviation of less than 0.1% can also be considered. Bonds with a deviation of more than 0.08% are more likely to be removed [1][2][53]. 3.4 Summary - In terms of bond nature, the Sci - tech Bond ETF prefers bonds with an implied rating of AA+ or above (especially AAA), small - and medium - scale (within 40 billion yuan, especially within 20 billion yuan), public - issued corporate and financial bonds, issued by central and local state - owned enterprises (especially central ones), from traditional industries, and with medium - and short - term issuance and remaining terms [55][56]. - In terms of market performance, it prefers bonds that are newly traded within 15 days with a high turnover rate and those with an average daily tracking index deviation of less than 0.1% (especially less than 0.04%) [57].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase Holding," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [79]. Core Viewpoints - The bus industry is poised to become a global leader in technology output, with overseas market contributions expected to replicate the scale of the Chinese market within 3-5 years [2]. - The domestic price war in the bus market has ended, which is expected to lead to a recovery in demand driven by tourism and public transport renewal needs, potentially returning to 2019 levels [2]. - The report recommends focusing on the bus sector, particularly on companies Yutong and King Long, both of which are expected to show strong growth and profitability [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In September 2025, the overall production of the bus industry in China reached 54,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 21% [9][10]. - The wholesale volume for September was 56,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34% [9][10]. - The terminal sales volume for buses was 57,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 28% [18]. Company Performance - Yutong's projected net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to grow from 4.63 billion to 6.68 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 19%, and 21% respectively [4]. - King Long is anticipated to see a significant turnaround, with net profits projected to rise from 440 million to 830 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 182%, 45%, and 28% [4]. Export Performance - In September 2025, the bus industry exported 5,596 units, with year-on-year growth of 52% [51]. - The export of large and medium buses showed a significant increase, with Yutong and King Long maintaining strong market shares in the export sector [62].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 宁德时代（300750） 2025 年三季报点评：盈利亮眼，业绩持续高 增可期 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 400,917 | 362,013 | 422,604 | 534,947 | 636,930 | | 同比（%） | 22.01 | (9.70) | 16.74 | 26.58 | 19.06 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 44,121 | 50,745 | 68,996 | 86,240 | 106,551 | | 同比（%） | 43.58 | 15.01 | 35.97 | 24.99 | 23.55 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 9.67 | 11.12 | 15.12 | 18.90 | 23.35 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 37.90 | 32.95 | 24.24 | 19.39 | 15.69 | [Tabl ...