证券研究报告 [Table_Industry] 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2024-12-18 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20241216：房地产业对经济的直接贡献将由负转正——11 月经 济数据点评 9 月以来，政策对经济的拉动主要体现在两个方面，一是"两新"拉动工 业设备和耐用消费品的产需，二是房地产销售回暖，房地产业对经济的直 接拖累减小。从 11 月经济数据来看，第一条传导路径的效果有所走弱， 11 月社零增速从 4.8%降至 3%，有待于政策进一步加力提效；而第二条 政策路径正在发挥更大的作用。 从生产法来看，房地产对经济的拉动体 现为两个部分，一是第三产业中房地产业增加值，直接拉动经济，这部分 近年来占 GDP 的比重为 5.4%左右（过去四个季度平均）；第二部分是房 地产带动上下游的生产，间接拉动经济。 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 固收点评 20241216：基本面缓复苏，流动性充裕预期助燃债市 经济基本面中，消费虽有"以旧换新"支持等积极信号，但居民收支修复 不确定；固定资产投资结构分化，制造业投资维持高 ...

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·旅游及景区 西域旅游（300859） 实控人变更为新疆国资，全疆资产赋能发展 2024 年 12 月 17 日 增持（首次） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|----------|----------|--------|--------|--------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 102.28 | 305.26 | 327.31 | 376.78 | 436.55 | | 同比（ % ） | (31.56) | 198.46 | 7.22 | 15.11 | 15.86 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (9.30) | 105.58 | 119.04 | 146.09 | 175.72 | | 同比（ % ） | (134.51) | 1,235.17 | 12.74 | 22.73 | 20.28 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） ...

证券研究报告·行业研究·商贸零售 增持（维持） 零售重估掘金手册：三条逻辑与路径 作者： 吴劲草 东吴商社 首席证券分析师 S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 阳靖 东吴商社 证券分析师 S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 2024 年 12 月 17 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 摘要 ❑ 11月以来，申万零售板块展现出明显的超额收益，主要受益于零售资产重估。 ❑ 零售股的重置价值在近10年来反复被交易。即"把其旗下资产重置一遍，所需成本就会超过市值"。 如2015年的险资举牌大商股份，欧亚集团等；2018年互联网巨头入股三江购物，永辉超市等；2023 年红旗连锁，重庆百货的国企改革；2024年名创优品收购永辉超市29.4%股权等。 ❑ 目前整体上看，零售资产PB均处于较低的位置。考虑其资产以历史成本入表，目前重置成本将大幅 高于历史成本，我们认为零售资产有较大的重估空间。 ❑ 24年自9月底的市场行情以来，零售重估形成了趋势性行情，主要原因就是9月23日，名创优品承担 了重估永辉超市的催化的角色，带来了整个板块的重估趋势。 ❑ 在目前 ...

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·互联网电商 若羽臣（003010） 代运营龙头破茧成蝶，自有品牌绽家快速发 展 2024 年 12 月 17 日 买入（首次） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|--------|-------|--------|--------|--------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1217 | 1366 | 1841 | 2509 | 3384 | | 同比（ % ） | (5.55) | 12.25 | 34.77 | 36.29 | 34.86 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 33.74 | 54.29 | 103.60 | 139.91 | 189.75 | | 同比（ % ） | 15.55 | 60.93 | 90.83 | 35.04 | 35.62 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 0.21 | 0.33 | 0.63 | ...

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating for Huaxin Cement (600801) [1] Core Views - Huaxin Cement has signed a share acquisition agreement to acquire 100% of Company A (which holds 60% of Company B) and 40% of Company B for a total consideration of $186.6 million, making the target companies wholly-owned subsidiaries upon completion [2] - This marks the company's first entry into the South American market, expanding its overseas aggregate business [3] - The target companies operate 4 aggregate plants in Brazil with a total capacity of 8.8 million tons/year (actual production of 6.2 million tons in 2023), located in the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil's economic and population center [3] - Brazil's construction industry is benefiting from government infrastructure investment and real estate market recovery, with cement sales growing 4.6% YoY in Jan-Oct 2024 [3] - The target companies demonstrated strong profitability, with Company B reporting net profits of $17.13 million in 2023 and $12.82 million in Jan-Sep 2024, implying a 11x P/E multiple based on 2023 earnings [3] - The company's overseas expansion continues with recent acquisitions in Nigeria and Brazil, adding 10.6 million tons/year of cement grinding capacity and 8.8 million tons/year of aggregate capacity [4] - By mid-2024, the company will operate 10 overseas aggregate plants (up from 6) with total overseas cement grinding capacity exceeding 33 million tons/year [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 33.76 billion in 2023 to RMB 42.96 billion in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 1.1%, 16.3%, and 8.2% in 2024-2026 respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline 36.7% YoY to RMB 1.75 billion in 2024, then recover to RMB 2.35 billion (+34.1% YoY) in 2025 and RMB 2.75 billion (+17.2% YoY) in 2026 [1] - EPS is expected to be RMB 0.84 in 2024, RMB 1.13 in 2025, and RMB 1.32 in 2026 [1] - P/E ratios are projected at 14.7x, 11.0x, and 9.4x for 2024-2026 respectively [1] Market Data - Current share price: RMB 12.35 [8] - 52-week range: RMB 9.91-16.09 [8] - Market cap: RMB 25.68 billion [8] - P/B ratio: 0.89x [8] Financial Position - Total assets: RMB 68.80 billion in 2023, projected to grow to RMB 80.50 billion by 2026 [12] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 51.52% [9] - ROE: 9.55% in 2023, expected to decline to 5.82% in 2024 before recovering to 8.29% by 2026 [12]

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·房地产 房地产行业深度报告 2025 年房地产行业年度策略——周期拐点 已至，结构性复苏一触即发 2024 年 12 月 17 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 我国房地产市场已经超跌，本轮调整或已接近尾声。我国房地产市场在 过去几年已经历深度调整，今年 4 月以来商品房单月销售面积已达十年 来新低水平，商品房单月销售额也已回落至 2016 年水平，1-11 月累计 商品房和商品住宅销售市场规模较 2021 年同期降幅已超 45%。当前我 国房地产行业所处阶段和主要增长动能与日本 90 年代初期较为相似， 但在城镇化率和居民杠杆率上仍有一定提升空间，而对比日本房地产核 心指标和住宅投资占 GDP 比重以及房地产开发投资完成额占 GDP 比 重在行业周期低点的下滑幅度，我国房地产市场已过度调整，本轮周期 拐点可期。 ◼ 政治局会议首提止跌回稳，宏观政策和需求政策有望继续协同发力。参 考海外经验以及过去几年的我国房地产放松政策效果，我们认为维持行 业的稳定运行不仅有赖于行业自身政策，考虑到房地产和宏观经济的高 度相关性和相互作用，未 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sinocare (300298) [1] Core Views - Sinocare's new Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) system has obtained medical device registration, enhancing product competitiveness [2] - The CGM system features third-generation direct electron transfer technology, offering high accuracy and stability, catering to both home and clinical settings [3] - The company has established a partnership with A Menarini Diagnostics S r l, a leading European diagnostics company, which is expected to boost Sinocare's market presence in Europe [4] - Sinocare's CGM product, "Sinocare AiKan," has been approved in multiple regions including China, Indonesia, and the EU, with potential FDA approval expected by Q3 2025 [4] - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue and net profit growth from 2024 to 2026, with revenue expected to reach 4 63 billion, 5 29 billion, and 6 09 billion yuan respectively, and net profit projected at 412 million, 524 million, and 622 million yuan [5] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is forecasted at 4 63 billion, 5 29 billion, and 6 09 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of 14 06%, 14 22%, and 15 23% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 412 million, 524 million, and 622 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with growth rates of 44 96%, 27 05%, and 18 68% respectively [1] - EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected at 0 73, 0 93, and 1 10 yuan per share, with corresponding P/E ratios of 36 97, 29 10, and 24 52 [1] Market and Product Development - Sinocare's CGM system is designed for both home and clinical use, with usage durations of up to 15 days and 8 days respectively [2] - The company's CGM product has been approved in multiple regions, including China, Indonesia, and the EU, and is expected to achieve FDA approval by Q3 2025 [4] - The partnership with A Menarini Diagnostics S r l is anticipated to enhance Sinocare's strategic positioning in the European market [4] Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 54 06% in 2023 to 56 89% in 2026 [12] - ROE is projected to increase from 9 24% in 2023 to 13 56% in 2026 [12] - The company's P/B ratio is forecasted to decrease from 5 16 in 2023 to 3 42 in 2026 [12] Valuation - The current P/E ratio is 53 59, with projected P/E ratios of 36 97, 29 10, and 24 52 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1] - The company's market capitalization is 15 24 billion yuan, with a circulating A-share market value of 12 30 billion yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BOSS Zhipin (BZ) [1] Core Views - BOSS Zhipin's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue growth of 19% YoY to RMB 1.912 billion and adjusted net profit of RMB 739 million, up 4% YoY, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [2] - The company expects Q4 2024 revenue to be between RMB 1.795-1.810 billion, representing a YoY increase of 13.6%-14.6% [2] - BOSS Zhipin repurchased USD 220 million worth of shares in 2024 [2] User Metrics and Market Trends - Q3 2024 MAU reached 58 million, up 30% YoY and 6% QoQ, hitting a record high [2] - Paid enterprise customers totaled 6 million in the 12 months ending September 30, 2024, up 22% YoY and 2% QoQ [2] - The ratio of job seekers to enterprise users improved QoQ, potentially shortening recruitment cycles and temporarily slowing enterprise customer payment growth [2] Blue-Collar Business Performance - Blue-collar recruitment revenue exceeded 38% of total revenue in Q3 2024, with manufacturing revenue up 45% YoY [3] - The "Hailuo Preferred" project saw a 45% QoQ increase in attracted enterprises and a 40% QoQ rise in contract value [3] - Large enterprise revenue grew over 30% YoY, with ARPU up 5% YoY and flat QoQ [3] Financial Performance and Projections - Q3 2024 adjusted operating profit was RMB 605 million, representing 31.7% of revenue [3] - Adjusted net profit margin was 38.7%, down 5.8% YoY due to higher tax rates [3] - 2024-2026 Non-GAAP net profit forecasts are RMB 2.6/3.2/4.1 billion, with corresponding Non-GAAP P/E ratios of 18/15/11x [4] Financial Ratios and Valuation - 2024-2026 ROE projections are 10.4%/12.8%/15.9% [10] - 2024-2026 gross margin forecasts are 83.3%/84.4%/84.9% [10] - 2024-2026 net profit margin estimates are 20.5%/25.5%/31.3% [10] - The stock closed at USD 14.58 with a market cap of USD 6.373 billion [4] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - 2024-2026 operating cash flow projections are RMB 2.974/4.352/4.548 billion [8] - 2024-2026 net cash increase forecasts are RMB 337 million/1.634 billion/1.711 billion [8] - Total assets are projected to grow from RMB 19.096 billion in 2024E to RMB 24.175 billion in 2026E [9]

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2024-12-17 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20241216："中财办解读"传达了哪些增量信息？——学习"中 财办解读中央经济工作会议精神"文章 明年促消费的三种典型方式，一是加大财政对消费的直接投入，二是提高 社保水平，三是提高财富效应。文章指出"明年将通过加大财政对终端消 费直接投入、提升社会保障水平等多种方式，推动居民收入稳定增长。" 具体政策方面，文章提到，一是促进就业、完善劳动者工资正常增长机 制；二是加大"两新"补贴；三是提高养老金和医保补助；四是生育补贴 （"制定促进生育政策"）；五是发挥财富效应，文章把"稳住楼市股市" 放在"多渠道增加居民收入"下面，体现了对财富效应促进消费的重视。 宏观量化经济指数周报 20241215：地产政策见效，"提前还贷"降温 从 12 月前两周的高频数据来看，ECI 供给指数为 50.56%，较 11 月回升 0.05%；ECI 需求指数为 49.91%，较 11 月回升 0.02%。从分项来看，ECI 投资指数为 50.00%，较 11 月回升 0 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20241216 房地产业对经济的直接贡献将由负转正—— 11 月经济数据点评 2024 年 12 月 16 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 9 月以来，政策对经济的拉动主要体现在两个方面，一是"两新"拉动 工业设备和耐用消费品的产需，二是房地产销售回暖，房地产业对经济 的直接拖累减小。从 11 月经济数据来看，第一条传导路径的效果有所 走弱，11 月社零增速从 4.8%降至 3%，尽管有"双十一"需求提前释放 的影响，但也表明消费增长仍有待于政策进一步加力提效；而第二条政 策路径正在发挥更大的作用。 ◼ 从生产法核算来看，房地产对经济的拉动体现为两个部分，一是第三产 业中房地产业增加值，直接拉动经济，这部分近年来占 GDP 的比重为 5.4%左右（过去四个季度平均）；第二部分是房地产带动上下游的生产， 间接拉动经济。 ◼ 预计 Q4 房地产业对经济的直接贡献将由负转正，对四季度经济的拉动 将比三季度高约 0.2 个点。服务业生产指数中，房地产业生产指数逐月 改善，9 月同比为-2.2% ，10 月为 0.8%，11 月为 2. ...