Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its future growth potential [3]. Core Insights - The company is recognized as a leader in the optical components industry, with significant growth expected in molded glass products. Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 1.388 billion and 1.831 billion RMB, respectively, with a new revenue forecast for 2027 set at 2.361 billion RMB. The net profit forecasts for the same years have also been updated to 356.65 million, 509.19 million, and 691.54 million RMB, respectively [3]. - The report highlights the company's strong position in the market, driven by the increasing demand for optical applications in consumer electronics, particularly in mobile photography. The company is actively developing new projects to meet customer needs and enhance its product offerings [9]. - The growth of the glass aspheric lens business is attributed to strong demand from automotive, optical communication, and handheld imaging device sectors. The company is expanding its production capacity to meet this growing demand [9]. - Strategic partnerships in the glass wafer business are deepening with major clients, particularly in AR and semiconductor applications, which are expected to drive future growth [9]. Financial Projections - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 754.46 million RMB in 2023 to 2.3606 billion RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 28.95% [3][10]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 179.91 million RMB in 2023 to 691.54 million RMB in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 35.81% in the final year of the forecast [3][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.44 RMB in 2023 to 1.70 RMB in 2027, indicating a strong improvement in profitability [3][10].

- The RPV factor (Renewed Correlation of Price and Volume) is constructed by integrating intraday and overnight information, dividing price-volume into four quadrants, and leveraging monthly IC averages to identify reversal and momentum effects. It incorporates "volume" information into the correlation form, finding optimal representatives for intraday and overnight price-volume correlations and completing information integration. This factor is designed to enhance the effectiveness of price-volume correlation in stock selection [6][1][7] - The SRV factor (Smart Correlation of Price and Volume) refines intraday price movements by splitting them into morning and afternoon changes, calculating minute-level "smart" indicators, and identifying the 20% of afternoon minutes with the highest "smart" indicator values as the most informed trading periods. It uses the correlation between afternoon "smart" turnover rate and afternoon price changes. For overnight price-volume correlation, it replaces turnover rate with the turnover rate of the last half-hour of the previous day, which has a higher proportion of informed trading. The SRV factor combines the more effective intraday and overnight price-volume correlation factors into a composite factor [6][1][7] - The RPV factor achieved an annualized return of 14.29%, annualized volatility of 7.66%, IR of 1.87, monthly win rate of 72.54%, and maximum drawdown of 10.63% during the backtesting period from January 2014 to November 2025 [7][10][1] - The SRV factor achieved an annualized return of 17.03%, annualized volatility of 6.47%, IR of 2.63, monthly win rate of 74.65%, and maximum drawdown of 3.93% during the backtesting period from January 2014 to November 2025 [7][10][1] - In November 2025, the RPV factor's 10-group long portfolio had a return of -0.23%, the short portfolio had a return of -0.47%, and the long-short portfolio had a return of 0.24% [10][1][11] - In November 2025, the SRV factor's 10-group long portfolio had a return of 0.19%, the short portfolio had a return of -0.44%, and the long-short portfolio had a return of 0.63% [10][1][11]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name**: "Rediscover Confidence 2.0" RCP Factor - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on a common expectation bias in behavioral finance—overconfidence. It innovatively uses high-frequency minute sequence data to construct the overconfidence factor CP by calculating the time gap between favorable price surges and price corrections. The second-generation Rediscover Confidence Factor (RCP) is derived by orthogonalizing the first-generation CP factor with intraday returns and using the residuals as the RCP factor[1][6]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Calculate the time gap between favorable price surges and price corrections to construct the overconfidence factor CP. - **Step 2**: Orthogonalize the CP factor with intraday returns. - **Step 3**: Use the residuals from the orthogonalization process as the second-generation Rediscover Confidence Factor (RCP)[6]. - **Model Evaluation**: The RCP factor constructed based on the Rediscover Confidence idea performs significantly better than traditional combination methods[6]. Model Backtesting Results 1. **"Rediscover Confidence 2.0" RCP Factor**: - Annualized Return: 17.68%[1][7][12] - Annualized Volatility: 7.83%[1][7][12] - Information Ratio (IR): 2.26[1][7][12] - Monthly Win Rate: 77.46%[1][7][12] - Maximum Drawdown: 7.46%[1][7][12] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. **Factor Name**: Overconfidence CP Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor is based on the degree of investor overconfidence affecting stock prices, using the time difference between rapid price increases and decreases as a proxy variable[6]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Calculate the time difference between rapid price increases and decreases to construct the overconfidence factor CP[6]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The CP factor innovatively captures the overconfidence bias in investor behavior[6]. 2. **Factor Name**: Rediscover Confidence RCP Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Considering that investors may become overly pessimistic during price corrections, leading to excessive corrections, but due to favorable news, such stocks will eventually rebound. The RCP factor is derived by orthogonalizing the CP factor with intraday returns and using the residuals[6]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Orthogonalize the CP factor with intraday returns. - **Step 2**: Use the residuals from the orthogonalization process as the Rediscover Confidence Factor (RCP)[6]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The RCP factor, after purification, shows significantly improved performance[7]. Factor Backtesting Results 1. **Rediscover Confidence RCP Factor**: - IC Mean: 0.04[1] - Annualized ICIR: 3.27[1] - Annualized Return: 20.69%[1] - Information Ratio (IR): 2.91[1] - Monthly Win Rate: 81.55%[1]

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20251129 "日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子绩效月报 20251128 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 2025 年 11 月 29 日 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 庞格致 执业证书：S0600524090003 panggz@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《"日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子绩 效月报 20251031》 2025-11-06 《成交量对动量因子的修正：日与夜 之殊途同归》 2022-08-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 6 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ "日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2014 年 2 月至 2025 年 11 月，"日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子在全体 A 股（剔 除北交所股票）中，10 分组多空对冲的年化收益率为 18.04%，年化波 动率为 8.68%，信息比率为 2.08，月度胜率为 78.17%，月度最大回撤率 为 9.07% ◼ 11 月份"日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a weekly data tracking of secondary capital bonds from November 24 to November 28, 2025, covering primary market issuance, secondary market trading, and valuation deviation of individual bonds [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance - Three new secondary capital bonds were issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets this week, with a total issuance scale of 68.9 billion yuan. The issuance term is 10 years, the issuers include local state - owned enterprises and central financial enterprises, with subject ratings of AA+ and AAA, and the issuer regions are Zhejiang, Hunan, and Beijing [1]. 3.2 Secondary Market Trading - **Trading Volume**: The total weekly trading volume of secondary capital bonds was approximately 178.5 billion yuan, an increase of 13.2 billion yuan from last week. The top three bonds in terms of trading volume were 25 Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 02BC (10.146 billion yuan), 25 Agricultural Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 04A(BC) (9.421 billion yuan), and 25 Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 01BC (6.028 billion yuan). By issuer region, the top three in trading volume were Beijing (141.6 billion yuan), Shanghai (12.6 billion yuan), and Fujian (4.7 billion yuan) [2]. - **Yield to Maturity**: As of November 28, for 5Y secondary capital bonds, the yield - to - maturity changes of AAA-, AA+, and AA - rated bonds compared to last week were 5.46BP, 7.44BP, and 8.44BP respectively; for 7Y bonds, the changes were 9.05BP, 10.90BP, and 10.90BP respectively; for 10Y bonds, the changes were 10.13BP, 9.50BP, and 9.50BP respectively [2]. 3.3 Valuation Deviation of Top 30 Individual Bonds - The overall valuation deviation of the weekly trading average price of secondary capital bonds was not significant this week. The proportion and amplitude of discount transactions were smaller than those of premium transactions. - **Discount Bonds**: The top three discount - rate bonds were 21 Jiutai Rural Commercial Secondary (-48.4374%), 21 Guiyang Rural Commercial Secondary (-1.0131%), and 23 China CITIC Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01B (-0.3428%). The remaining discount rates were within - 0.31%. The ChinaBond implicit ratings were mainly AAA-, AA+, and AA - rated, and the regional distribution was mainly in Beijing, Zhejiang, and Shanghai [3]. - **Premium Bonds**: The top three premium - rate bonds were 25 Shanghai Pufa Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01B (1.5031%), 25 Qujiang Rural Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (1.3216%), and 25 Agricultural Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 04B(BC) (0.8022%). The remaining premium rates were within 0.78%. The ChinaBond implicit ratings were mainly AAA-, AA+, and AA - rated, and the regional distribution was mainly in Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin [3].

证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 北交所定期报告 20251128 工信部召开动力和储能电池产业座谈会，北 证 50 上涨 0.39% 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 陈哲晓 执业证书：S0600124080015 sh_chenzhx@dwzq.com.cn 2025 年 11 月 28 日 相关研究： 《央行逆回购 3105 亿元稳流动性北 证 50 下跌 1.4%》 2025-11-19 《北证 50 缩量下跌,广东印发数字经 济新三年方案》 2025-11-20 东吴证券研究所 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 资本市场新闻：1）加密货币市场集体大涨，美联储主席人选 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leading global player in the smart security chip market, focusing on AIoT and automotive sectors, with a robust growth trajectory expected in the coming years [8]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 29.34 billion yuan, 36.33 billion yuan, and 44.87 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.7 billion yuan, 4.1 billion yuan, and 5.9 billion yuan [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the research and sales of smart security chips, with applications in smart security, AIoT, and automotive sectors [13]. - It has a stable shareholding structure with significant investment from MediaTek, ensuring no controlling shareholder [14]. Financial Analysis - The company reported a revenue of 2.354 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.49%, and a net profit of 256.26 million yuan, up 25.18% year-on-year [20]. - The smart security segment remains the primary revenue source, consistently contributing over 50% to total revenue [23]. Smart Security Market - The global market for smart security is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3% from 2021 to 2026, reaching 29.9 billion USD by 2026 [41]. - The company holds a leading market share in both IPC SoC and NVR SoC segments, with 36.5% and 38.7% market shares respectively in 2021 [49]. Smart IoT and Automotive Sectors - The company is expanding into the smart IoT market, particularly in robotic and AI glasses sectors, leveraging its visual AI and 3D sensing technologies [60]. - In the automotive sector, the company is the second-largest supplier of driving recorder chips in China, with plans to penetrate the front-mounted market [8]. Research and Development - The company maintains a high R&D expenditure, with a rate of 25.59% in 2024, reflecting its commitment to innovation and product development [27]. - The R&D team constitutes 77.5% of the total workforce, indicating a strong focus on technological advancement [27].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Zhongli Co., Ltd. (603194) [1] Core Views - Zhongli Co., Ltd. is a global leader in electric warehouse forklifts, driving the transformation of material handling technology towards electrification, greening, and intelligence [2][16] - The company has a complete product line of warehouse forklifts and intelligent handling robots, with a strong market position in China and significant international presence [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing electrification trend in the forklift industry, with robust revenue and profit growth projected in the coming years [4][48] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2007, Zhongli Co., Ltd. focuses on the R&D, production, and sales of forklifts and intelligent handling robots, leading the industry in electrification and green development [2][16] - The company has maintained a leading market share in electric warehouse forklifts in China since 2013, with a strong international sales network covering North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia [2][16] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 22 billion yuan in 2019 to 66 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 25% [2][26] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.5 billion yuan in 2019 to 8.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 41% [2][26] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 52 billion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.9 billion yuan, up 5.5% year-on-year [2][26] Market Trends - The forklift industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 8% from 2015 to 2024, driven by investments in manufacturing and logistics, as well as the electrification trend [2][3] - The global market for balance-weight forklifts is projected to have significant growth potential, with the lithium battery penetration rate expected to increase [3][41] Competitive Advantages - Zhongli Co., Ltd. has a strong competitive edge due to its established brand, comprehensive product offerings, and significant international market share [3][41] - The company's gross profit margin has improved from 26.7% in 2022 to 29.7% in 2025, driven by scale effects and efficient management [28][41] - The company maintains a higher gross margin compared to domestic competitors, with a sales gross margin of 29.7% and a net profit margin of 13.3% [41][44] Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing electrification and automation trends in the material handling industry, with expected growth in both domestic and international markets [4][48] - The strategic focus on intelligent logistics solutions and the development of autonomous handling equipment is anticipated to further enhance growth opportunities [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Suzhou Keda (603660) [1] Core Views - The company is seizing opportunities in AI and actively expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in line with the "Belt and Road" initiative [8] - The company has launched a series of public safety products powered by its self-developed "Kaidan Large Model," enhancing its smart security capabilities [8] - The company is also advancing its quantum-encrypted video conferencing products, catering to high-security communication needs [8] - Despite short-term pressure on earnings due to fluctuations in downstream customer demand, the company is expected to recover its performance with the support of AI, international expansion, and domestic production acceleration [8] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to decline from 1,816 million RMB in 2023 to 1,331 million RMB in 2024, before gradually increasing to 1,853 million RMB by 2027 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 7.79 million RMB, and further increasing to 108.07 million RMB by 2027 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be negative in 2023 and 2024, but is expected to reach 0.19 RMB by 2027 [1] - The report adjusts the EPS estimates for 2025-2026 down to 0.01 RMB and 0.07 RMB, respectively, while introducing a new estimate of 0.19 RMB for 2027 [8]

Economic Outlook - China's economy is expected to grow at 4.9% in 2026, with infrastructure investment accelerating and manufacturing investment maintaining at 6%[11] - CPI is projected to have a slight positive growth of 0.5%, while PPI's decline is expected to narrow to -0.9%[12] - Fiscal policy will remain expansionary, with an increase of 620 billion yuan in incremental funds compared to 2025[13] Asset Allocation - The overall preference for asset allocation is ranked as follows: stocks > commodities (industrial) > gold > currency > bonds[7] - 10-year bond yields are expected to fluctuate between 1.70%-2.0%, while 30-year yields are projected to be in the range of 1.90%-2.30%[32] - The RMB is anticipated to gradually appreciate, potentially reaching around 6.80 by the end of 2026, with annualized volatility maintained at 3.0%-4.0%[35] Stock Market Insights - A-shares are entering the next phase of an "innovation bull market," driven by inflation recovery and liquidity supporting valuation increases[3] - The overall A-share market has seen a 73.4% increase from February 2024 to November 2025, with valuation recovery being a significant driver[51] - A-share earnings are expected to rise significantly in 2026, supported by improved PPI and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies[52] Commodity Market Trends - Commodities like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from increased demand driven by AI and new energy sectors, indicating a long-term price increase[39] - The "green inflation" narrative is expected to continue, with supply constraints and demand from new economic sectors driving prices higher[43] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to stabilize commodity markets by addressing overcapacity in certain industries[41] Gold Market Outlook - Gold prices are projected to oscillate between $4,000-$4,200 per ounce through the end of 2025, with an upward trend expected in 2026 due to liquidity easing[50] - The historical bull market in gold has been supported by central bank purchases and a weakening of global sovereign currency credit[44]