Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 1.07% from November 10 to November 14, outperforming the overall market index [14]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to maintain a bullish outlook in the medium term despite short-term fluctuations due to changing interest rate expectations [4][49]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, while the non-ferrous metals sector ranked 16th among 31 sectors, outperforming the index by 1.25 percentage points [14]. - Precious metals increased by 2.77%, energy metals by 2.47%, and industrial metals by 1.56%, while small metals and new materials declined by 1.42% and 3.22%, respectively [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices rose with LME copper at $10,846 per ton (up 1.41%) and SHFE copper at ¥86,900 per ton (up 1.12%). Supply remains weak, with Codelco's September production down 7.2% year-on-year [2][31]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum reached $2,859 per ton (up 1.41%), driven by increased demand from the electric vehicle sector, where sales exceeded 50% of total new car sales in October [3][35]. - **Zinc**: Prices fell with LME zinc at $3,015 per ton (down 1.70%) and SHFE zinc at ¥22,470 per ton (down 1.30%). Zinc inventories increased, indicating a bearish trend [41]. - **Tin**: LME tin rose to $36,860 per ton (up 2.90%) due to reduced exports from Indonesia, which halved in October [45]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,084.40 per ounce (up 1.91%), while SHFE gold was at ¥953.20 per gram (up 3.47%). The resumption of U.S. government operations alleviated liquidity concerns, boosting prices [4][49]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish comments and the lack of supporting economic data have led to a decrease in December rate cut expectations from 95% to around 50%, causing some price corrections in precious metals [50]. Inventory Changes - Copper inventories decreased, with LME at 135,700 tons (down 0.13%) and SHFE at 109,400 tons (down 4.89%) [29][34]. - Aluminum inventories increased slightly, with LME at 552,400 tons (up 0.57%) and SHFE at 114,900 tons (up 1.38%) [35].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 49.97%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.87%, down 0.02 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for November is 49.97%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from October, and the demand index is at 49.88%, down 0.02 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.89%, down 0.02 percentage points from October, and the consumption index is at 49.69%, down 0.03 percentage points[7] Group 2: Industrial Production and Investment - Industrial production is experiencing a seasonal decline, with major industry operating rates decreasing month-on-month[17] - The operating rate for asphalt plants is at 29.00%, down 0.70 percentage points from the previous week, and the national cement dispatch rate is at 33.42%, down 3.73 percentage points[31] - The construction work volume has shown a seasonal decline since November, indicating a need for further recovery in infrastructure investment[7] Group 3: Consumer Trends - Passenger car sales averaged 46,056 units per day in the week of November 9, down 10,644 units year-on-year, with retail sales for the first nine days of November at 415,000 units, a 19.0% decrease year-on-year[25] - The average wholesale price of pork is at 18.06 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables is at 5.77 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg[42] Group 4: Export and Trade - The SCFI index for container shipping is at 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points, while the CCFI index is at 1094.03 points, up 35.86 points[41] - South Korea's export growth for the first ten days of November is at 6.40%, a significant recovery from the previous month[36] Group 5: Monetary Policy and Financing - The ELI index is at -0.58%, down 0.04 percentage points, indicating a continued decline in actual loan rates[12] - The net monetary injection for the week is 626.2 billion yuan, with the central bank conducting 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repos[48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, specifically recommending companies like BaiLi Tianheng [1]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has shown significant performance, with the A-share pharmaceutical index increasing by 3.3% this week and 22.1% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.4% and 4.5% respectively [4][9]. - BaiLi Tianheng has developed a comprehensive pipeline of innovative drugs targeting major cancer types, with 17 clinical candidates, including 6 in trials in the United States [20]. - The report highlights the approval of the first generic version of Enzalutamide by Kelun Pharmaceutical and the initiation of Phase III trials for a KRAS G12D inhibitor by Jinfang Pharmaceutical [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The A-share pharmaceutical index has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with significant gains in various sub-sectors, including pharmaceutical commerce (+5.7%) and chemical pharmaceuticals (+4.5%) [4][9]. - Notable stock performances include JinDike (+62%), Renmin Tongtai (+61%), and Chengda Pharmaceutical (+58%) [4][9]. Company Focus: BaiLi Tianheng - BaiLi Tianheng's pipeline includes innovative drug platforms such as HIRE-ADC, GNC, and HIRE-ARC, with a focus on EGFR×HER3 ADC as a cornerstone treatment [20]. - The company has initiated three global pivotal Phase III trials and ten critical Phase III trials in China for its lead candidate, iza-bren [20]. Recommendations - The report suggests a ranking of preferred sub-industries: innovative drugs > research services > CXO > traditional Chinese medicine > medical devices > pharmacies [4][9]. - Specific companies to watch include BaiLi Tianheng, BeiGene, Kelun Pharmaceutical, and others in various therapeutic areas such as PD1/VEGF dual antibodies and GLP1 [4][10][11][12][13][14][15].

Economic Impact - The U.S. government shutdown lasted 43 days, with a projected impact of -1.5% on Q4 2025 GDP and +2.2% on Q1 2026 GDP due to the shutdown effects[2] - The CBO estimates that a six-week shutdown will reduce real GDP by $28 billion in 2025 dollars[41] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in December dropped from 70% to 43% following hawkish comments from Fed officials[2] - Key economic data, particularly the November non-farm payrolls, will be crucial for the December FOMC meeting, as October's data may be incomplete[2][4] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets initially rose but later retraced gains due to changing rate cut expectations, with the S&P 500 up 0.08% and the Nasdaq down 0.45% for the week[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 5.16 basis points to 4.148%, while the 2-year yield rose by 4.42 basis points to 3.606%[3] Inflation and Employment Data - The ADP reported a significant decline in private sector jobs, with an average weekly loss of 11,250 jobs as of October 25[3] - The NFIB small business optimism index for October was recorded at 98.2, slightly below expectations[3] Future Monetary Policy - The new Fed chair appointed by Trump may influence a prolonged period of loose monetary policy, potentially leading to rate cuts exceeding market expectations[4] - Risks include potential inflation spikes if the Fed cuts rates too aggressively or maintains high rates for too long, which could trigger liquidity crises[4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q3 2025, with a significant increase in profit margins. The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was RMB 786.3 million, a year-on-year increase of 233%, and the adjusted net profit margin reached 10.2%, up from 3.2% in the same period last year [9] - The advertising revenue for Q3 2025 was RMB 2.57 billion, a 23% increase compared to the same period in 2024, driven by improved advertising product offerings and effectiveness. The company expects to continue gaining market share in the advertising business [3][10] - The company has adjusted its forecast for net profit for 2025-2027, now expecting RMB 2.602 billion, RMB 3.593 billion, and RMB 4.685 billion respectively, reflecting an optimistic outlook on advertising and gaming revenue [10] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was RMB 7.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The gross profit was RMB 2.82 billion, with a gross margin of 36.7%, up from 34.9% in Q3 2024 [9] - The company’s mobile game revenue for Q3 2025 was RMB 1.51 billion, a decrease of 17% year-on-year, attributed to a high base from the previous year [3] - The value-added services revenue for Q3 2025 was RMB 3.02 billion, a 7% increase year-on-year, mainly due to growth in paid memberships and other services [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be RMB 6.18, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.06 based on the current stock price [1][10] - The forecasted total revenue for 2025 is RMB 30.195 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 13% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with CATL for a supply of 200GWh of battery cells over three years, indicating strong growth potential in both domestic and international markets [8] - The domestic energy storage market is expected to exceed expectations, with a projected installation of 150GWh in 2025, growing to 225GWh in 2026, driven by innovative business models and supportive policies [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from a significant increase in demand for energy storage solutions, with expected shipments of 27GWh in 2025 and 60GWh in 2026 [8] - Internationally, the company is expanding into markets such as Europe, Southeast Asia, and North America, with a forecasted shipment of 10GWh overseas in the coming year [8] - Profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 indicate a substantial increase in net profit, with expected figures of 9.1 billion, 19.0 billion, and 30.9 billion respectively, reflecting growth rates of 41%, 109%, and 63% [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6,982 million in 2023 to 28,081 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 165.89% in 2023 and 45.86% in 2027 [1] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 3.21 in 2023 to 17.16 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 118.06 in 2023 to 22.08 in 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Views - The non-bank financial sector has shown resilience, with all sub-sectors outperforming the CSI 300 index in recent trading days. The insurance sector rose by 2.62%, while the overall non-bank financial sector increased by 0.17% [9][10] - The insurance industry is expected to benefit from economic recovery and rising interest rates, with a significant increase in the sales of savings-type products [47] - The securities sector is poised for growth due to favorable market conditions and policy support, with a focus on brokerage, investment banking, and capital intermediary services [47] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sector Performance - In the recent five trading days (November 10-14, 2025), all non-bank financial sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the insurance sector leading [9] - Year-to-date, the insurance sector has increased by 17.77%, outperforming other sub-sectors [10] Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sector Insights Securities - Trading volume remains high, with November's average daily stock trading volume at 23,682 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.54% [14] - The margin financing balance reached 25,065 billion yuan, up 35.77% year-on-year [14] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities industry is projected at 1.3x for 2025 [19] Insurance - As of Q3 2025, the insurance industry's investment balance reached 37.5 trillion yuan, a 12.6% increase from the beginning of the year [20] - The core equity asset scale has significantly increased, with stocks and funds totaling 5.59 trillion yuan [20] - The insurance sector's premium income for the first nine months of 2025 was 40,895 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [26] Multi-Financial - The trust industry is experiencing a transition phase, with total trust assets reaching 29.56 trillion yuan in 2024, a 23.58% year-on-year increase [30] - The futures market saw a trading volume of 6.03 billion contracts in October 2025, with a transaction value of 61.22 trillion yuan [35] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The recommended ranking for the non-bank financial sector is insurance > securities > other multi-financial services, with key companies including China Life, Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, and Tonghuashun [47]

Market Performance - As of November 14, 2025, the North Exchange 50 Index decreased by 0.56% compared to the previous week[29] - The average market capitalization of North Exchange A-shares is 3.194 billion yuan[30] - The average daily trading volume for North Exchange A-shares was approximately 21.38 billion yuan, down 5.89% from the previous week[30] Industry Insights - The focus on solid-state and lithium battery materials has significantly increased, with notable stock price increases in related companies such as Andar Technology (up 13.15%) and Rongyi Precision (up 20.52%)[38] - The State Council issued 13 targeted policy measures to stimulate private investment, aiming to create a more favorable environment for private enterprises[12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in sectors with high industry prosperity and scarcity, such as robotics, commercial aerospace, and energy storage[38] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various markets as of November 14, 2025, are as follows: North Exchange A-shares at 49.21, ChiNext at 43.38, Shanghai Main Board at 12.69, Shenzhen Main Board at 23.03, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 70.80[38] Risks - Key risks include policy risk, liquidity risk, and external environmental volatility, which could impact market stability[39]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a fixed - income weekly report dated November 16, 2025, focusing on the bond market and related data [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Report Core Views - The 10 - year Treasury bond active coupon yield is expected to remain in the range of 1.75% - 1.85% until the end of the year. There may be a better layout opportunity in the first quarter of next year when betting on interest rate cuts. A potential fund redemption fee new rule in early December could lead to a pulse - like rise in interest rates, presenting a good entry opportunity [13] - The US 12 - month interest rate cut probability has decreased, and US Treasury yields have collectively risen. The NFIB small - business optimism index in October was lower than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims in the week of November 8 decreased [15][20][21] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 One - Week Views - **Domestic Bond Market**: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury bond active coupon yield decreased by 0.1bp from 1.8060% to 1.8050%. The bond market was in a narrow - range fluctuation. Two factors restricted the interest rate from breaking through the range: market expectations of the weakening fundamentals and the higher probability of interest rate cuts in the first quarter of next year [9][13] - **US Bond Market**: The NFIB small - business optimism index in October was 98.2%, lower than the expected 98.3%. The number of initial jobless claims in the week of November 8 decreased from 228,000 to about 225,000. The probability of a December interest rate cut decreased, and US Treasury yields rose. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 4bp to 4.12%, and the 2 - year yield rose 2bp to 3.59% [15][20][21] 4.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation 4.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - Open - market operations from November 10 - 14, 2025, had a net injection of 781 billion yuan. Interest rate bonds' total issuance, total repayment, and net financing showed certain changes compared to the previous week [27] 4.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Commodity prices such as steel and LME non - ferrous metals had mixed rises and falls. The total floor area of commercial housing transactions showed a downward trend [50][51] 4.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 4.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - From November 10 - 14, 2025, 73 local bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 285.066 billion yuan, a net financing of 242.792 billion yuan. The top five provinces in terms of issuance amount were Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Jilin, and Beijing [76][78] 4.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The local bond stock was 54.01 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 31.0134 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.57%. The top three provinces with active trading were Hubei, Guangdong, and Shandong [90] 4.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan - Some provinces and regions have planned local bond issuances from November 17 - 21, 2025 [98] 4.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 4.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - A total of 311 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 268.14 billion yuan, a total repayment of 236.697 billion yuan, and a net financing of 31.443 billion yuan, a decrease of 59.068 billion yuan compared to the previous week [94] 4.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The short - term financing bill's latest issuance interest rate was 1.7115%, up 7.53bp; the medium - term note was 2.1127%, down 1.53bp; the corporate bond was not provided; the corporate bond was 2.2449%, up 2.72bp [106] 4.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The total credit bond trading volume was 538.76 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different ratings and bond types [107] 4.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bonds generally decreased, while those of credit bonds such as short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different trends [108][109][111] 4.4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, while those of corporate bonds and urban investment bonds generally widened [115][118][120] 4.4.6 Rating Spreads - The rating spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [124][127][131] 4.4.7 Trading Activity - The top five most actively traded bonds for each bond type were listed, and the industrial industry had the largest weekly bond trading volume [136][137] 4.4.8 Subject Rating Changes - There were no bonds with upgraded ratings or outlooks, and no bonds with downgraded ratings or outlooks this week [138][139]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current port coal prices are supported by supply and shipping price issues, with the northern region entering the heating season and expected increases in electricity consumption, leading to a forecast of fluctuating coal prices [1] - The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased to 1.977 million tons, a rise of 1.87% week-on-week, while the average daily outflow rose to 1.8744 million tons, an increase of 0.77% week-on-week [1][32] - The total inventory at the Bohai Rim ports reached 24.296 million tons, up 2.82% week-on-week, indicating a slow growth in year-on-year comparisons despite absolute increases in outflow and inventory [1][32] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,990.49 points, down 0.70% week-on-week, while the coal sector index fell by 1.46% to 3,047.30 points [10] - The trading volume for the coal sector decreased by 7.98% to 80.618 billion yuan [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - As of November 14, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port increased by 17 yuan/ton to 834 yuan/ton, while prices for other regions showed mixed trends [16][19] 3. International Coal Prices - The Newcastle coal price index rose by 2.58 USD/ton to 108.81 USD/ton, while other international indices remained stable [19] 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily coal inflow and outflow at the Bohai Rim ports showed increases, with a notable rise in the number of anchored vessels, indicating heightened activity in the coal market [32] 5. Shipping Costs - Domestic shipping costs increased by 0.31% week-on-week, reaching 51.52 yuan/ton [34] 6. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets in the thermal coal sector [37]