证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 流动性之所以能够从外部资金条件成为驱动市场上涨的因素，必然是叙事 发生了变化。诚然，随着定期存款、理财产品收益率下行，居民部门确实 存在资产配置结构调整的内在需求，这在长期维度上是成立的。但值得注 意的是，这一逻辑的存在与演进并非始于近期，而是长期趋势力量，却为 何成为了近期市场上涨的理由？我们认为，这本质上是短期宏观层面内外 部的叙事都发生了转变。 6 月以来，市场形成了两大关键叙事逻辑。内部来看，反内卷+需求刺激的 政策组合拳改善了市场的盈利预期。7 月习总书记强调"依法依规治理企业 低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退出"，反内卷顶层设计逐步清晰，政策 导向持续强化；同时以雅江水电站为代表的大基建项目开工打开了需求扩 张的空间，这共同强化了市场对经济供需格局优化、ROE 企稳的预期。市 场基于 2016 年的经验和宽松的流动性环境，对盈利拐点进行快速定价， 周期权重接力银行成为指数上行的动力。随着反内卷和需求刺激的政策持 续推进，PPI 有望率先触底回升，进而推动企业盈利改善，将成为指数进 一步上行的重要动力。 策略周评 20250823 外部来看，弱美元是市场开启行情的重 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The primary market issued 16 green bonds in the week from August 18 - 22, 2025, with a total issuance scale of about 6.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.341 billion yuan from the previous week. The issuance terms are mostly 3 years, with issuers including local state - owned enterprises, large private enterprises, and central enterprise subsidiaries, and most of the issuers have an AAA or AA+ rating [1]. - The secondary market green bond trading volume in the week from August 18 - 22, 2025, totaled 53 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.8 billion yuan from the previous week. The top three bond types in terms of trading volume are non - financial corporate credit bonds, financial institution bonds, and interest - rate bonds. Green bonds with a term of less than 3 years have the highest trading volume, accounting for about 82.16%. The top three industries in terms of trading volume are finance, public utilities, and transportation equipment. The top three regions in terms of trading volume are Beijing, Shanghai, and Hubei [2]. - In the week from August 18 - 22, 2025, the overall deviation of the weekly average trading price valuation of green bonds is not large. The discount trading amplitude is smaller than the premium trading amplitude, and the discount trading proportion is less than the premium trading proportion [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Primary Market Issuance - **Issuance Quantity and Scale**: 16 green bonds were newly issued in the week from August 18 - 22, 2025, with a total issuance scale of about 6.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.341 billion yuan from the previous week [1]. - **Issuance Terms**: Most issuance terms are 3 years [1]. - **Issuer Nature**: Issuers include local state - owned enterprises, large private enterprises, and central enterprise subsidiaries [1]. - **Issuer Ratings**: Most issuers have an AAA or AA+ rating [1]. - **Issuer Regions**: Issuers are from Beijing, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, Sichuan, Tianjin, Yunnan, and Chongqing [1]. - **Bond Types**: Bond types include ultra - short - term financing bills, private placement notes (PPN), ABN of the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors, enterprise ABS, medium - term notes, private corporate bonds, and general corporate bonds [1]. Secondary Market Transactions - **Total Trading Volume**: The total trading volume in the week from August 18 - 22, 2025, was 53 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.8 billion yuan from the previous week [2]. - **By Bond Type**: The top three in terms of trading volume are non - financial corporate credit bonds (25.2 billion yuan), financial institution bonds (19.6 billion yuan), and interest - rate bonds (4.1 billion yuan) [2]. - **By Issuance Term**: Green bonds with a term of less than 3 years have the highest trading volume, accounting for about 82.16% [2]. - **By Issuer Industry**: The top three industries in terms of trading volume are finance (22.3 billion yuan), public utilities (10.5 billion yuan), and transportation equipment (2.9 billion yuan) [2]. - **By Issuer Region**: The top three regions in terms of trading volume are Beijing (17.7 billion yuan), Shanghai (4.3 billion yuan), and Hubei (4.3 billion yuan) [2]. Valuation Deviation of Top 30 Individual Bonds - **Discount Bonds**: The top three discount bonds are "22 Dazu State - owned Green Bond" (-0.6793%), "22 Fuyuan Green Bond 02" (-0.4774%), and "25 Shuineng G1" (-0.4666%). The main industries of the issuers are finance, construction, and transportation equipment, and the implicit ratings of ChinaBond are mainly AAA-, AA+, and AA-. The regions are mainly Beijing, Shanghai, and Jiangxi [3]. - **Premium Bonds**: The top four premium bonds are "Yuehuan GK01" (1.1082%), "GK Mengdian 02" (1.0819%), "20 Henan 39" (1.0473%), and "25 Kangfu Leasing MTN001 (Carbon - neutral Bond)" (0.7551%). The main industries of the issuers are finance, energy, and transportation equipment, and the implicit ratings of ChinaBond are mainly AA+, AA(2), and AA. The regions are mainly Shanghai, Guangdong, Shandong, and Beijing [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's net profit for the first half of 2025 reached 3.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, with life insurance and property insurance net profits of 2.92 billion yuan and 520 million yuan, respectively [8] - The new business value (NBV) for the first half of 2025 was 4.01 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.3% [8] - The company's total investment assets increased by 7.9% to 591.9 billion yuan as of the first half of 2025 [8] - The report anticipates continued growth in the equity market and has adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 6 billion, 6.23 billion, and 6.53 billion yuan, respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - Insurance service revenue is projected to grow from 64 billion yuan in 2024 to 80 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.4% [1] - The company's net profit is expected to increase from 5.45 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.53 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 4.25% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.47 yuan in 2024 to 0.57 yuan in 2027 [1] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decrease from 0.75 in 2024 to 0.61 in 2027, indicating a potential undervaluation [1] Business Segment Analysis - In the life insurance segment, the NBV saw a significant increase, with individual insurance and bank insurance channels growing by 23.5% and 53%, respectively [8] - The property insurance segment reported a 2.5% increase in original premium income, with non-auto insurance premiums rising by 12.5% [8] - The comprehensive cost ratio for property insurance improved to 98.8%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [8] Investment Strategy - The company is shifting its investment strategy by increasing allocation to core equities while reducing exposure to bonds [8] - The annualized net investment return rate for the first half of 2025 was 3.8%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The overall demand from domestic customers has slowed down, leading to a decline in performance, with a 38% year-on-year drop in H1 2025 [2] - The company reported a revenue of 178 million yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 14.55% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12 million yuan, down 37.59% year-on-year [2] - The decline in performance is attributed to the overall industry environment, reduced new projects, and intense competition in bidding prices, resulting in a gross margin of 20.43%, down 2.03 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business to generate new growth [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2023A to 2027E show fluctuations, with total revenue expected to reach 453.94 million yuan in 2025E, a 13.22% increase year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 45.11 million yuan in 2025E, reflecting a 15.19% increase year-on-year [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 0.48 yuan per share in 2025E, with a P/E ratio of 39.98 [1] Product Performance Summary - The main product, heat exchangers, saw a revenue decline of 13.80% to 104 million yuan in H1 2025, accounting for 58.55% of total revenue [3] - The revenue from the tube bundle segment decreased by 39.29% to 26 million yuan, while the air cooler segment experienced a slight increase of 7.50% to 47 million yuan [3] Market Trends and Opportunities - The domestic market benefits from the "reduce oil and increase chemical" trend, with a focus on energy-saving transformations in the petrochemical industry [4] - The company is actively expanding into international markets, achieving a breakthrough in overseas revenue in 2024, with a gross margin of 48.26%, significantly higher than the domestic market [4] - The company has established itself as a qualified supplier for major global companies, indicating potential for future growth in overseas business [4]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·软件开发 恒生电子（600570） 2025 年中报点评：投资收益上扬，成本下行 共促利润提升 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7,281 | 6,581 | 7,551 | 8,719 | 10,156 | | 同比（%） | 11.98% | -9.62% | 14.74% | 15.47% | 16.48% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,424 | 1,043 | 1,199 | 1,385 | 1,654 | | 同比（%） | 30.54% | -26.75% | 14.95% | 15.51% | 19.39% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.75 | 0.55 | 0.63 | 0.73 | 0.87 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 38.41 | 52.44 | 45.62 | 39.50 | 33.08 | [Table_Su ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - This week (20250818 - 20250822), there were no new secondary capital bonds issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets. As of August 22, 2025, the outstanding balance of secondary capital bonds reached 46,753.85 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.0 billion yuan from the previous weekend (20250815) [1]. - The total trading volume of secondary capital bonds this week was approximately 216.2 billion yuan, an increase of 54.5 billion yuan from last week. The top three trading volume bonds were 25 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 02BC (11.698 billion yuan), 25 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 01BC (11.037 billion yuan), and 25 Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 01BC (10.012 billion yuan). In terms of the issuer's region, the top three in trading volume were Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong, with approximately 173.3 billion yuan, 15.3 billion yuan, and 6.7 billion yuan respectively. Regarding the yield to maturity, as of August 22, the yield to maturity of 5Y secondary capital bonds with ratings of AAA -, AA +, and AA increased by 6.73BP, 7.65BP, and 6.65BP respectively compared to last week; for 7Y secondary capital bonds, the corresponding increases were 7.07BP, 8.14BP, and 5.14BP; for 10Y secondary capital bonds, the increases were 6.69BP, 5.13BP, and 2.13BP [2]. - This week, the overall deviation of the weekly average trading price valuation of secondary capital bonds was not large. The proportion of discount transactions was less than that of premium transactions, but the discount amplitude was greater than the premium amplitude. Among the discount bonds, the top three discount rates were for 21 Changchun Development Rural Commercial Secondary (- 21.5075%), 21 Jiutai Rural Commercial Secondary (- 21.4869%), and 22 Great Wall Huaxi Secondary Capital Bond 01 (- 0.4696%). Among the premium bonds, the top four premium rates were for 24 Shanghai Pufa Bank Secondary Capital Bond 02B (0.4943%), 23 Hankou Bank Secondary Capital Bond 02 (0.4546%), 23 Postal Savings Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.4059%), and 21 China Construction Bank Secondary 02 (0.3893%) [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Primary Market Issuance and Outstanding Balance - No new secondary capital bonds were issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets this week (20250818 - 20250822). As of August 22, 2025, the outstanding balance of secondary capital bonds was 46,753.85 billion yuan, down 30.0 billion yuan from the previous weekend (20250815) [1]. Secondary Market Trading - The total trading volume of secondary capital bonds this week was about 216.2 billion yuan, up 54.5 billion yuan from last week. The top three trading volume bonds were 25 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 02BC, 25 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 01BC, and 25 Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 01BC. By issuer's region, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong had the highest trading volumes [2]. - As of August 22, the yield to maturity of 5Y secondary capital bonds with ratings of AAA -, AA +, and AA increased by 6.73BP, 7.65BP, and 6.65BP respectively compared to last week; for 7Y, the increases were 7.07BP, 8.14BP, and 5.14BP; for 10Y, the increases were 6.69BP, 5.13BP, and 2.13BP [2]. Top Thirty Individual Bonds by Valuation Deviation - The overall valuation deviation of secondary capital bonds this week was not large. The proportion of discount transactions was less than that of premium transactions, but the discount amplitude was greater. The top three discount - rate bonds were 21 Changchun Development Rural Commercial Secondary, 21 Jiutai Rural Commercial Secondary, and 22 Great Wall Huaxi Secondary Capital Bond 01. The top four premium - rate bonds were 24 Shanghai Pufa Bank Secondary Capital Bond 02B, 23 Hankou Bank Secondary Capital Bond 02, 23 Postal Savings Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 01, and 21 China Construction Bank Secondary 02 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with total revenue of 46.59 billion yuan, an increase of 8.16% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.03 billion yuan, up 7.37% year-on-year [7] - The main business showed steady growth, with significant contributions from respiratory oxygen and home health monitoring solutions, particularly the electronic blood pressure monitors and infrared thermometers [7] - The company is expected to benefit from the launch of new Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) products, which have received positive feedback from users, driving rapid growth in the CGM business [7] - Cost control measures have been effective, with a gross margin of 50.37%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points year-on-year [7] - Future profit forecasts have been adjusted slightly, with net profit for 2025 expected to be 19.54 billion yuan, and for 2026-2027 adjusted to 22.05 billion yuan and 25.35 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 7,972 million yuan, 2024A: 7,566 million yuan, 2025E: 8,760 million yuan, 2026E: 10,134 million yuan, 2027E: 11,711 million yuan [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be: 2023A: 2,396 million yuan, 2024A: 1,806 million yuan, 2025E: 1,954 million yuan, 2026E: 2,205 million yuan, 2027E: 2,535 million yuan [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: 2023A: 2.39 yuan, 2024A: 1.80 yuan, 2025E: 1.95 yuan, 2026E: 2.20 yuan, 2027E: 2.53 yuan [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios based on the latest diluted EPS are: 2023A: 15.31, 2024A: 20.32, 2025E: 18.78, 2026E: 16.64, 2027E: 14.47 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company continues to deepen its presence in the energy, water conservancy, transportation, and natural resources sectors, achieving a year-on-year growth of 28% in net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2025 [2] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 168 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.49%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 32 million yuan, up 14.33% year-on-year [2] - The growth in performance is primarily driven by the acceleration of energy infrastructure investment, digital transformation in transportation, and increased demand for disaster prevention [2][3] - The company reported a gross profit margin of 54.38%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 19.35%, down 0.26 percentage points year-on-year [2] Revenue and Profitability - The company's main business segments include smart monitoring terminals and IoT solutions, with revenues growing by 11% and 22% year-on-year, respectively, in the first half of 2025 [3] - The smart monitoring terminal segment generated 132 million yuan in revenue, with a gross margin of 61.41% [3] - The safety monitoring IoT solutions and services segment achieved 36 million yuan in revenue, with a gross margin of 28.71% [3] Research and Development - The company has strong R&D capabilities, with proprietary technologies in various sensing techniques and IoT integration, enabling high-quality domestic product replacements [4] - The company is expanding its service areas and customer base, focusing on energy, water conservancy, transportation, and smart city applications [4] - The customer base primarily consists of state-owned enterprises and government departments, ensuring long-term cooperation and large orders [4] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts total revenue of 398.45 million yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 90.76 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.84% [1][10] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.65 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.65 based on the current price [1][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qianhong Pharmaceutical (002550) [1] Core Views - The company is successfully transitioning towards innovation, with a significant improvement in the gross margin of its formulation business and signs of recovery in its raw material drug segment [8] - The company has achieved revenue of 862 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 258 million yuan, up 41.17% year-on-year [8] - The company has four innovative drug pipelines in Phase II clinical trials or about to enter Phase III, indicating a fruitful period for its long-term investment in innovation [8] Financial Performance - Revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is 20.51 billion yuan, 27.37 billion yuan, and 32.83 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 4.43 billion yuan, 5.12 billion yuan, and 6.09 billion yuan [1][9] - The gross margin for the formulation business increased significantly to 69.90% in H1 2025, up 8.54 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a substantial decrease in costs [8] - The raw material drug business saw a revenue increase of 17.52% in H1 2025, marking the first revenue growth after eight consecutive quarters of decline [8] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 10.90 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 13.95 billion yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 31.48 for 2025, decreasing to 22.91 by 2027 [1][9]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·证券Ⅱ 浙商证券（601878） 2025 年中报点评：交投活跃度提升带动业绩 增长，自营系主要驱动力 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 17,638 | 15,816 | 12,251 | 12,651 | 13,329 | | 同比（%） | 4.90% | -10.33% | -22.54% | 3.26% | 5.36% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,754 | 1,932 | 2,378 | 2,603 | 2,833 | | 同比（%） | 6.01% | 10.17% | 23.07% | 9.47% | 8.84% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.46 | 0.49 | 0.52 | 0.67 | 0.73 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 26.93 | 25.29 | 23.83 | 18.46 | 16.96 | [Table ...