证券研究报告·行业点评报告·保险Ⅱ 保险Ⅱ行业点评报告 非车险"报行合一"落地，预计推动行业盈 利表现改善 增持（维持） 2025 年 10 月 10 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 曹锟 执业证书：S0600524120004 -17% -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 2024/10/10 2025/2/8 2025/6/9 2025/10/8 保险Ⅱ 沪深300 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 相关研究 《推动健康险高质量发展，分红型健 康险产品将回归市场》 2025-09-30 《保险行业 8 月保费：寿险单月保费 强势增长，财险非车业务短期承压》 2025-09-26 东吴证券研究所 1 / 4 ◼ 【事件】10 月 10 日，金监总局发布《关于加强非车险业务监管有关事 项的通知》，就非车险业务强化监管要求，新规自 11 月 1 日起执行。 ◼ 优化考核机制由追求规模、速度向追求质量、效益转变。1）新规范围 包括车险以外的其他财险业务，农险和出口信用保险另有规定的 ...

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that the overseas market during the National Day holiday was dominated by two major events: the U.S. government shutdown and the unexpected election of Kishi Nobuo as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan. The government shutdown led to increased risk aversion and a rise in expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, while Kishi's victory raised expectations for "loose fiscal and monetary" policies in Japan, driving gold and Bitcoin to new historical highs [1][17]. Fixed Income - The report indicates that there was no new issuance of secondary capital bonds in the interbank and exchange markets during the week of September 22-26, 2025. However, the total transaction volume of secondary capital bonds reached approximately 229.9 billion yuan, an increase of 52.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week [2]. - In the green bond market, 23 new green bonds were issued during the same week, with a total issuance scale of approximately 30.974 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.414 billion yuan from the previous week. The total transaction volume of green bonds was 70.3 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. Banking Sector - The report analyzes the bond investment pressure and outlook for the banking sector, noting that the actual bond investment income of 42 listed banks in the first half of 2025 was approximately 1.42 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 3.82% compared to the same period in 2024. The growth was primarily driven by investment income, while coupon income faced downward pressure in a declining interest rate environment [4][6]. - Different types of banks showed varied performance, with state-owned banks experiencing relatively controllable pressure due to their significant bond allocation and liquidity advantages. In contrast, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks faced greater challenges in maintaining profitability in bond investments [6]. Energy Equipment Industry - The report emphasizes the strong demand for energy storage, predicting a growth rate of 30-40% in large-scale energy storage in China due to the gradual introduction of compensation electricity prices. The global energy storage installation CAGR from 2025 to 2028 is expected to be 30-50% [8]. - In the lithium battery sector, production in September slightly exceeded previous expectations, with a further 10% increase in October. The report anticipates continued price increases in Q4 due to supply constraints [8]. Automotive Sector - The report notes that in September, the domestic delivery of 15 major new energy vehicle companies reached 877,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 15%. Key players like Xpeng, Xiaomi, and Great Wall all surpassed 40,000 units for the first time [10]. - The automotive sector is entering a new phase where electric vehicle benefits are waning, and the focus is shifting towards intelligent vehicles. Investment opportunities are identified in AI smart cars and related technologies [10]. Semiconductor Industry - The report highlights that Chiplet technology and its applications are a strategic focus for the company, which has been developing this technology for five years. The company is leading in the fields of AIGC and intelligent driving systems [16]. - The company expects significant revenue growth from its semiconductor IP licensing and custom chip design business, with a strong order backlog and a focus on various processing IPs [16].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company, Tehai International, serves as the overseas listing platform for Haidilao, leading the expansion of Chinese cuisine internationally. It aims to enhance its global store layout and accelerate the internationalization of Chinese dining [6][11]. - The overseas hot pot market is projected to reach a scale of $30 billion, supported by over 60 million overseas Chinese, with local consumers also contributing to brand expansion [6][41]. - Tehai International is positioned as the largest Chinese dining brand in international markets, leveraging its strong brand presence and operational capabilities [6][47]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tehai International operates as the overseas platform for Haidilao, with 122 stores globally as of 2024, focusing on direct operations and local product offerings [11][12]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a projected revenue of $778.31 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.07% [1][6]. Industry Overview - The report highlights that the internationalization of Chinese cuisine is timely, with Tehai International being a key player in this trend. The company is expected to benefit from the growing acceptance of hot pot among local consumers [6][37]. - The international Chinese dining market is characterized by low concentration, providing opportunities for growth, especially for standardized offerings like hot pot [6][45]. Competitive Advantages - Tehai International is recognized as the leading hot pot brand, with a robust operational framework and supply chain management that supports its international expansion [6][56]. - The company has optimized its store model, reducing the average return period to 5.1 years, and is enhancing customer engagement through localized services and cultural events [6][31]. Financial Analysis - The financial projections indicate a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50.6% for net profit from 2025 to 2027, with expected profits of $49.45 million in 2025 [1][6]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in the number of overseas stores, reaching 149 by 2027, further solidifying the company's market position [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to recover its main business performance and stabilize its orders, with a target of 220-230 billion yuan in orders for 2025, showing a significant increase in overseas orders [7] - The company is the only global manufacturer capable of delivering a complete line of solid-state battery production equipment, which has gained recognition from major clients in Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea [7] - The stock option incentive plan aims to bind team interests and attract core talent in new technology fields, particularly in solid-state battery research and development [7] - The company has set ambitious revenue growth targets of at least 20% for 2025 and 2026, with performance assessments based on these targets [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 11,855 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of -28.71%, and is expected to recover to 19,000 million yuan by 2027, with a growth rate of 19.87% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 286.10 million yuan in 2024, with a significant rebound to 2,484 million yuan by 2027 [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 0.18 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.59 yuan by 2027 [1][8] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 340.60 in 2024, decreasing to 39.23 by 2027 [1][8]

Macro Strategy - The macroeconomic indicators show a marginal recovery in infrastructure work volume since September, with expectations for monetary policy to continue its supportive stance to stabilize liquidity amid seasonal factors [1][12] - The ECI supply index stands at 50.03%, unchanged from the previous week, while the demand index has slightly increased to 49.92%, indicating a stable economic operation [12] - The U.S. economic data has led to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations, with analysts significantly raising growth forecasts for the U.S. economy for Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 [13][14] Fixed Income - The secondary capital bond market saw a total transaction volume of approximately 229.9 billion yuan from September 22 to September 26, an increase of 52.1 billion yuan from the previous week [2][18] - The issuance of green bonds totaled about 30.97 billion yuan during the same period, a slight decrease from the previous week, while the secondary market transaction volume for green bonds reached 70.3 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9 billion yuan [3][20] - The report indicates that the bond investment income of 42 listed banks in the first half of 2025 was approximately 1.42 trillion yuan, reflecting a modest growth of 3.82% compared to the same period in 2024 [4][6] Industry Insights - Youyou Green Energy (301590) is positioned as a leader in charging modules, benefiting from the trend towards high-power DC charging equipment for electric vehicles, with projected net profits of 204 million, 315 million, and 507 million yuan for 2025-2027 [8] - Jiufeng Energy (605090) plans to invest in coal-to-gas projects in Xinjiang, with net profit forecasts of 1.56 billion, 1.80 billion, and 2.13 billion yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [8] - Andisoo (600299), a leader in the global methionine industry, is expected to see net profits of 1.6 billion, 1.7 billion, and 2.1 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating based on its strong project progress and market position [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9] Core Insights - The company is leading in the Chiplet technology and its applications, particularly in AIGC and intelligent driving systems. It has been developing Chiplet technology for five years and is focusing on "IP chipification," "chip platformization," and "platform ecosystem" [3] - The company expects to achieve a record high revenue of 1.284 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 78.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 119.74%. New orders are projected to reach 1.593 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 145.80% [8] - The company has a strong accumulation of semiconductor IP and a broad layout across various downstream sectors, including AIGC, automotive electronics, wearable devices, data centers, and IoT [8] Financial Projections - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 3.813 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 64.22%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -76.76 million yuan [1][10] - The report adjusts the revenue expectations for 2025-2027 to 3.8 billion, 5.3 billion, and 7 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit expectations to -0.8 billion, 2.7 billion, and 5.6 billion yuan [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Views - The power equipment industry is experiencing strong demand in both power generation and energy storage sectors, with significant developments in humanoid and solid-state technologies [1] - The report highlights the robust growth in energy storage, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, with expectations of a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30-50% for global energy storage installations from 2025 to 2028 [3][8] - The humanoid robotics sector is poised for rapid growth, with projections indicating a market potential exceeding 100 million units, driven by advancements from companies like Tesla [12] Industry Trends - The electric equipment sector saw a 4.84% increase in stock performance, outperforming the broader market [3] - Lithium battery production is expected to rise by 10% in October, with strong demand leading to supply constraints anticipated to last until mid-2026 [3][8] - The report notes significant investments and partnerships in the humanoid robotics space, indicating a growing interest and market potential [3][12] Company Insights - Notable companies such as CATL, BYD, and LONGi Green Energy are highlighted as key players with strong growth prospects in their respective segments [6][29] - The report emphasizes the strategic collaborations and acquisitions among companies in the energy storage and robotics sectors, which are expected to enhance their competitive positions [3][6] - Specific companies are recommended for investment based on their market leadership and growth potential, including CATL, Sunpower, and Keda Clean Energy [6][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, indicating a continued bullish sentiment towards the automotive industry [1]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is entering a new phase where the benefits of electrification are tapering off, while the focus shifts towards intelligent vehicles and robotics innovation [4]. - The report highlights significant developments in the sector, including Tesla's FSD V14 release, which expands model scale and context length, and the introduction of simplified versions of Model 3 and Model Y at reduced prices [2][3]. - The report anticipates a strong demand for passenger vehicles, supported by policies encouraging vehicle replacement and upgrades, projecting a retail sales forecast of 23.7 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [50][51]. Summary by Sections Weekly Review - In the fourth week of September, the total number of passenger vehicles insured reached 644,000, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 26.7% and a month-on-month increase of 25.0% [49]. - The report notes that the new energy vehicle segment accounted for 368,000 units, with a penetration rate of 57.2%, marking a week-on-week increase of 23.7% [49]. Market Performance - The automotive sector ranked 10th in A-shares and 12th in Hong Kong stocks for the week, with commercial vehicles showing the best performance [8][10]. - The report identifies key stocks that performed well, including Songyuan Safety, Jingwei Hengrun-W, and Seres, which were among the top gainers [23]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of AI and intelligent vehicles as key investment themes, with a focus on Robotaxi and Robovan applications [4]. - It predicts that by 2025, the penetration rate of L3 autonomous driving technology will reach 20%, driven by major players like Tesla and Huawei [53]. - The report also anticipates a 15% growth in domestic sales in 2025, supported by policies promoting vehicle replacement and a recovering public transport sector [58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - The investment logic for domestic computing power is evolving from the supply side to the demand side, with AI application demand becoming a new engine for "domestic computing power" [1] - The release of multi-modal large models marks a significant breakthrough, driving the growth of AI applications and consequently the demand for domestic computing power [5] - Key companies such as DeepSeek, Zhiyuan, and Alibaba are demonstrating advancements in AI model compatibility and performance, showcasing the collaborative capabilities of domestic computing power [1][5] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The electronic industry is experiencing a growth trajectory, with significant advancements in AI capabilities and multi-modal applications [5] - The competition is shifting from single-language intelligence to multi-modal generation and understanding capabilities, with domestic companies rapidly catching up to international standards [5] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for cloud computing power include Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Chipone, Shengke Communication, and Zhaoyi Innovation, with a focus on companies like Aojie Technology and Yutai Micro [2] - For edge computing power, recommended companies include Amlogic, Rockchip, and Hengxuan Technology, with attention to companies like Lexin Technology [2] Key Company Valuations - Cambrian (688256) has a market cap of 554.31 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 325.55 for 2025E [7] - Haiguang Information (688041) has a market cap of 587.13 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 205.37 for 2025E [7] - Chipone (688521) has a market cap of 96.21 billion, with a projected PE ratio of -963.16 for 2025E [7] - Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) has a market cap of 142.33 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 86.01 for 2025E [7] - Amlogic (688099) has a market cap of 46.82 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 44.12 for 2025E [7] - Rockchip (603893) has a market cap of 94.89 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 89.15 for 2025E [7] - Hengxuan Technology (688608) has a market cap of 50.09 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 57.88 for 2025E [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that with policy support, there is potential for innovation and upgrade in health insurance products, leading to a win-win collaboration between insurance and the health industry. Health insurance premiums totaled 759.8 billion yuan from January to August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, accounting for approximately 20% of life insurance premiums [1][6][7] - The report emphasizes the return of participating health insurance products to the market, which is expected to enhance product attractiveness and stimulate market growth potential. The guidance from the regulatory body aims to deepen cooperation between insurance and health industries, promoting product innovation and improving the accessibility of innovative drugs and medical devices [1][5] - The report indicates improvements on both the liability and asset sides, with significant upward valuation potential remaining. The demand for savings in the market is still strong, and with ongoing regulatory guidance and proactive transformation by insurance companies, liability costs are expected to gradually decrease, alleviating pressure from interest rate spreads [1][5] - The report notes that the recent decline in the yield of ten-year government bonds to approximately 1.86% may ease the pressure on the investment returns of insurance companies in fixed-income investments as the domestic economy recovers [1][5] - The report highlights that the current valuation of the insurance sector is at historical lows, with estimates for September 30, 2025, indicating a price-to-earnings value (PEV) of 0.57-0.86 and a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.02-2.19, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [1][5] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report outlines a clear goal for health insurance to play a more significant role in the national health security system by 2030, with a focus on developing a multi-level health insurance market that meets diverse needs across the population and lifecycle [5] - It discusses the need for reform in various segments, including commercial medical insurance, long-term care insurance, and disease insurance, to support the development of floating income health insurance products and enhance the sustainability of urban commercial medical insurance [5] Regulatory Guidance - The report mentions the issuance of guidelines by the National Financial Supervision Administration to promote high-quality development in health insurance, emphasizing the importance of regulatory oversight and risk prevention [5] - It highlights the need for insurance companies to enhance their operational capabilities and strengthen health insurance regulation to optimize the development environment [5]