Group 1: Price Surge and PPI Impact - The price surge driven by geopolitical events has increased the probability of PPI turning positive by mid-2026, with Brent crude oil prices rising over 30% since December 2025[7] - The South China Comprehensive Index rose by 15.9% from December 2025 to February 2026, with precious metals and energy leading the increase[8] - In January 2026, PPI experienced a month-on-month growth of 0.4%, marking the largest increase in 28 months[8] Group 2: Historical Context and Profit Distribution - Historical data shows that during the 2015-2018 supply-side reform, PPI's positive shift led to a cumulative industrial profit growth of 44.5%, with upstream industries contributing 35.1 percentage points[29] - In contrast, during 2021, a demand rebound allowed downstream manufacturing profits to rise alongside PPI, indicating that demand elasticity is crucial for downstream firms to pass on costs[29] Group 3: Current Challenges in Price Transmission - The industrial sector faces challenges in price transmission due to a long-term structural imbalance and short-term weak demand, with an industrial sales rate of only 96.4% as of the end of 2025, below the historical average of 97.7%[41] - The consumer market remains weak, with retail sales growth dropping to 0.9% in December 2025, and several durable goods categories, including automobiles and home appliances, experiencing negative growth[41] Group 4: Industry-Specific Cost Impact - Industries most affected by cost pressures include automotive manufacturing, general and specialized equipment, and public utilities, which struggle to pass on rising costs due to low cost transmission coefficients[45] - The chemical industry shows a high dependency on oil, with complete consumption coefficients for chemical raw materials reaching 17.63%[47] - The gas supply industry faces extreme cost fluctuations due to a complete consumption coefficient of 60.35% for oil and gas extraction[47]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20260303 企业出海：破除内卷、提振内需与文化输出 2026 年 03 月 03 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《伊朗冲突还有哪些变数？——海外 周报 20260302 》 2026-03-02 《伊朗问题对股债商汇等大类资产的 影响 》 2026-03-02 东吴证券研究所 1 / 18 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：受国内部分行业产能过剩、全球贸易保护主义抬头以及供应 链重构等多重因素影响，近些年我国越来越多的企业选择通过出海寻求 破局的机会。一方面，高技术企业的加速出海使得我国企业利润率整体 有所提升，同时也部分缓解了国内"内卷式"竞争的局面；而另一方面， 服务和文化的加速出海正成为传播中国历史文化，向全球讲好中国故事 的重要载体。在双循环新发展格局下，出海已经成为了企业发展和竞争 增长的"必选项"。 ...

Market Performance Review - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a "volatile downward trend, with a mid-month rebound followed by another bottoming out," declining by 10.15% from January 31 to February 28, 2026, with a trading volume of approximately 1,203.1 billion [11][12] - As of February 28, 2026, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Hang Seng Tech Index was 21.20, positioned at the 16.00% historical percentile since its inception, indicating a relatively low historical valuation [16][19] - The risk degree TR of the Hang Seng Tech Index was 7.04 as of February 27, 2026, remaining in a historically low range, suggesting that the market's prior adjustment time and space were sufficient, making the current risk-reward ratio attractive [20][22] Event-Driven Analysis Macro Level - In February, external hawkish pressures dominated, with U.S. employment and monetary policy becoming core pricing factors, reinforcing expectations of prolonged high interest rates, which suppressed the valuation of the tech sector [28][29] - Domestic macro factors provided some support, with increasing foreign reserves stabilizing the exchange rate and a recovering CPI improving profit expectations, contributing to a weak support for the index [28][29] Policy Level - In February, coordinated policy efforts from both mainland China and Hong Kong aimed to improve liquidity and stabilize expectations, with the central bank's MLF net injection and adjustments to the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio providing direct liquidity support [39][40] - The Hong Kong government's budget plan included reforms to enhance the attractiveness of the stock market for tech companies, which is expected to provide a solid foundation for long-term valuation support [41][42] Industry Dynamics - The AI sector's high prosperity, improved funding conditions, and advancements in financial technology provided significant support for the Hang Seng Tech Index, with Nvidia's earnings report confirming strong demand for AI computing power [44][47] - However, the overall weak performance of U.S. stocks negatively impacted the transmission of these positive factors to the Hong Kong tech sector, leading to increased short-term volatility [44][48] Future Outlook - The Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to continue a "low-level oscillation and repeated bottoming" pattern in March 2026, with a lack of strong fundamental and funding support for a trend reversal [5][6] - Key upcoming events include macroeconomic data releases, policy pricing, and performance validations, which will collectively influence the index's trajectory [5][6]

证券研究报告·北交所公司点评报告·橡胶 利通科技（920225） 2025 业绩快报点评：外部不利因素冲击致短 期业绩承压，新业务布局孕育长期增长潜力 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 485.40 | 483.84 | 464.01 | 512.60 | 602.40 | | 同比（%） | 29.50 | (0.32) | (4.10) | 10.47 | 17.52 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 133.71 | 107.21 | 82.43 | 93.45 | 114.88 | | 同比（%） | 60.78 | (19.82) | (23.12) | 13.38 | 22.93 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.05 | 0.84 | 0.65 | 0.74 | 0.91 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 29.80 | 37.17 | 48.35 | 42.64 | 3 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The expansion of SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) production and the upward trend in energy value center are driving the scarcity and value appreciation of waste oil resources [10][11] - The proposed acquisition of an additional 10.61% stake by Conch Group in Conch Venture is expected to enhance control and lead to a revaluation of equity [14][15] - The environmental protection strategy for 2026 emphasizes value and growth resonance driven by dual carbon goals [19] Industry Overview SAF Expansion and Waste Oil Value - SAF production is expected to see a significant increase, with demand projected to reach 1.05 million tons by 2025 and 3.66 million tons by 2050, while supply remains constrained [10] - UCO (Used Cooking Oil) prices are currently at 7,400 RMB/ton, with potential price elasticity of 15%-58% as SAF production expands [11][12] Conch Group's Strategic Moves - Conch Group's acquisition aims to consolidate control over Conch Venture, with a projected market value of 235 billion HKD and a significant discount compared to peer valuations [18] Environmental Equipment Market - The sales of new energy sanitation vehicles increased by 70.9% in 2025, with a penetration rate of 21.11%, indicating strong growth in the sector [24][31] Biofuel Market Trends - Biojet fuel prices have seen a slight increase, with European prices rising by 100 USD/ton, while domestic prices remain stable [35] - UCO prices have stabilized, with restaurant waste oil averaging 7,400 RMB/ton [36] Lithium Battery Recycling - Prices for lithium and carbonate have increased, but profitability in the recycling sector has decreased, with average unit profits for waste materials remaining negative [44][45]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a significant year-on-year growth of 74% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the year 2025, driven by domestic substitution and global expansion [1][8] - The revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 4.20 billion yuan, representing a 34.44% increase compared to the previous year [1][8] - The company is the only domestic supplier of wet-type paper-based friction plates for passenger vehicles, benefiting from the growth of hybrid vehicles and capacity release [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (in million yuan) for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is projected to be 206.56, 312.58, 420.22, 564.50, and 760.40 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.33%, 51.33%, 34.44%, 34.33%, and 34.70% [1][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) for the same years is expected to be 49.18, 81.04, 141.32, 174.71, and 241.87, with year-on-year growth rates of 98.44%, 64.78%, 74.38%, 23.62%, and 38.44% [1][9] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025 is projected at 2.50 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 30.15 [1][9] Growth Drivers - The growth in performance is attributed to the increasing penetration of hybrid vehicles and the company's ongoing expansion into overseas markets [8] - The company is focusing on new product development, including electronic control limited-slip differentials (ELSD), which are expected to enhance vehicle stability and safety, particularly for electric vehicles [8] - A planned capital increase aims to raise 3.8 billion yuan to support the development of new friction materials and expand into new application scenarios [8]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The expansion of SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) and the upward trend in energy value center are driving the scarcity and value appreciation of waste oil resources [10][11] - The proposed acquisition of 10.61% stake by Conch Group in Conch Venture is expected to enhance control and lead to a revaluation of equity [14][15] - The environmental protection strategy for 2026 emphasizes value and growth resonance driven by dual carbon goals [19] - The sales of new energy sanitation vehicles are projected to increase by 70.9% in 2025, with penetration rate rising by 7.67 percentage points to 21.11% [24] - The price of bio-jet fuel has slightly increased, while prices for kitchen waste oil and waste cooking oil remain stable [35][36] - The prices of lithium and carbonate lithium have risen, but profitability has decreased in the lithium recycling sector [44][45] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - SAF production is expected to face supply constraints, with demand projected to reach 1.05 million tons by 2025 and 3.662 million tons by 2050 [10] - The current supply of waste cooking oil (UCO) is limited, with a potential utilization of about 4 million tons per year in China [10] - The price of UCO is currently at 7400 RMB/ton, with potential for significant price elasticity as SAF production expands [11] Company Tracking - Conch Group's acquisition of a 10.61% stake in Conch Venture aims to strengthen control and enhance the value of the equity [15][18] - Conch Venture's market capitalization is estimated at 23.5 billion HKD, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.44 [18] - The company is expected to see a significant increase in free cash flow due to improved operational efficiency and reduced capital expenditures [17] Environmental Equipment - The sanitation equipment sector is experiencing a surge in demand, with a 150% increase in unmanned sanitation project bids and a 71% increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles [24] - The market share of leading companies in the sanitation vehicle sector includes Yingfeng Environment, which holds the largest market share [31] Biofuels - Bio-jet fuel prices have seen a slight increase, with European prices rising by 100 USD/ton, while domestic prices remain stable [35] - The profitability of biofuels is influenced by the prices of raw materials, with UCO prices remaining stable [36] Lithium Recycling - The prices of lithium and cobalt have increased, but the profitability in the lithium recycling sector has decreased, with average unit gross profit for lithium carbonate at -0.70 million RMB/ton [44][45]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a significant year-on-year growth of 74% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the year 2025, driven by domestic substitution and global expansion [1][8] - The revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 4.20 billion yuan, representing a 34.44% increase compared to the previous year [1][8] - The company is the only domestic supplier of wet-type paper-based friction plates for passenger vehicles, benefiting from the growth of hybrid vehicles and capacity release [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (in million yuan) is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 206.56 - 2024: 312.58 - 2025: 420.22 - 2026: 564.50 - 2027: 760.40 - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at 17.33% for 2023, 51.33% for 2024, and 34.44% for 2025 [1][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) is expected to be: - 2023: 49.18 - 2024: 81.04 - 2025: 141.32 - 2026: 174.71 - 2027: 241.87 - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 98.44% for 2023, 64.78% for 2024, and 74.38% for 2025 [1][9] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is capitalizing on the increasing penetration of hybrid DHTs, which has become a major growth driver for its revenue [8] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in regions such as the Middle East, Eastern Europe, South America, and North America, which has opened new growth opportunities [8] - The introduction of new products, such as the electronic control limited-slip differential (ELSD), is expected to enhance the company's growth trajectory in the electric vehicle sector [8] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for the company are as follows: - 2025: 30.15 - 2026: 24.39 - 2027: 17.61 [1][9]

Group 1: Macro Strategy and Market Outlook - The report highlights that the recent military actions by Israel and the US against Iran exceeded market expectations, leading to a temporary spike in gold and oil prices, followed by a market correction. It anticipates that the conflict will be controlled, with limited military actions expected to last 2-3 weeks, after which oil prices may stabilize between $60-70 and gold around $5200 [1][19]. - The geopolitical tensions are expected to drive a shift in investment strategies, with a focus on heavy assets and low obsolescence investments, particularly in sectors like energy and resources, which are deemed strategically significant for national economies [2][20]. Group 2: Impact on Major Asset Classes - The report indicates that the ongoing geopolitical risks are likely to sustain short-term risk aversion, leading to inflows into the US dollar and US Treasury markets, while the Chinese yuan may act as a safe haven [2][20]. - In the commodities market, the report suggests that short-term risk aversion will drive a simultaneous rise in gold and oil prices, while medium-term supply chain disruptions and inflation pressures could reshape the global economic landscape [2][21]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Airo Energy's earnings forecast for 2025 has been adjusted downwards due to asset impairment, but projections for 2026 and 2027 have been increased, anticipating significant growth driven by the Australian storage market [9]. - Zhuhai Guanyu's profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down due to rising raw material costs and increased competition, yet it remains a strong player in the lithium battery sector with a "buy" rating maintained [10]. - Tian Nai Technology's profit estimates for 2025 have been lowered due to intensified competition, but the company is expected to see strong growth in its single-wall carbon tube segment in 2026 [12]. - Weichuang Electric's 2025 earnings report met expectations, with a focus on expanding its robotics business and maintaining growth in industrial automation [13].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the market in March will revolve around the dual variables of internal policy windows and external event shocks, with a focus on structural highlights from the Two Sessions, suggesting a likely stable fluctuation in the market index during this period [1][2] - It is anticipated that the market will experience limited competition due to moderate expectations for overall policy, with a higher focus on industrial policies, particularly potential key directions from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] - The report indicates that external factors, such as the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, will add new variables to the market, but the overall impact on the A-share market is expected to be less than that on European and American markets [2] Group 2 - The report recommends a diversified investment strategy to address both internal and external variables, suggesting a focus on sectors such as AI, cyclical commodities, and structural highlights from the Two Sessions [3] - It emphasizes that the AI and general AI sectors remain a long-term market focus, with significant advancements in domestic models and a trend towards high-cost performance tokens going abroad [4] - The cyclical sectors are expected to see opportunities for rotation, driven by economic recovery and inflation logic, with resource-related sectors benefiting from rising oil prices and heightened risk aversion [4] Group 3 - The report lists a selection of ten recommended stocks, including Baofeng Energy, Wanhua Chemical, and others, with detailed financial metrics such as market capitalization, EPS, and PE ratios for 2026 and 2027 [5][6] - Baofeng Energy is noted for its leading position in the domestic coal-to-olefins industry, with a projected capacity of 5.2 million tons per year by the end of 2025, and a stable gross margin of over 30% [11][12] - Wanhua Chemical is highlighted for its strong market position in MDI and TDI, with a projected increase in market share and significant demand support from domestic and overseas markets [17][18]