证券研究报告·公司点评报告·IT 服务Ⅱ 中国软件（600536） 再获增资，麒麟软件国产 OS 龙头地位强化 2024 年 12 月 09 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|----------|----------|--------|--------|--------| | | | | | | | | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 9640 | 6723 | 8067 | 9891 | 12339 | | 同比（ % ） | (6.87) | (30.26) | 19.99 | 22.61 | 24.75 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 45.95 | (232.75) | 156.80 | 344.71 | 608.18 | | 同比（ % ） | (39.21) | (606.53) | 167.37 | 119.84 | 76.43 | | EPS- 最 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·房地产 房地产行业跟踪周报 新房及二手房成交同比上涨，多地政策持续向 好 2024 年 12 月 09 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 上周（2024.12.02-2024.12.06，下同）：上周房地产板块（中信）涨跌幅 3.0%,同期沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为 1.4%、2.3%，超额收 益分别为 1.6%、0.7%。29 个中信行业板块中房地产位列第 12。 ◼ （1）新房市场：上周 37 城新房成交面积 345.3 万方，环比-11.1%，同 比+53.5%。2024 年 12 月 1 日至 12 月 6 日累计成交 266.9 万方，同比 +43.3%。今年截至 12 月 6 日累计成交 10842.7 万方，同比-23.6%。 ◼ （2）二手房市场：上周 16 城二手房成交面积 269.6 万方，环比+39.0%， 同比+90.8%。2024 年 12 月 1 日至 12 月 6 日累计成交 255 万方，同比 +122.8%。今年截至 12 月 6 日累计成交 7416.5 万方，同比+6.4%。 ...

证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所专题报告 北交所专题报告 20241209 2025 年北交所投资策略：三周年奋楫扬帆乘 势而上，创新型中小企业主阵地破浪笃行 2024 年 12 月 09 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 复盘：政策红利催化上涨行情，主题概念映射特征明显。北交所主要经 历两轮较成规模的行情：第一轮"10·24 行情"（2023/10/24—2024/1/3） 和第二轮"9·24 行情"（2024/9/24—2024/11/8）。两轮行情均由政策红 利提振市场情绪，吸引增量资金入场，以较小的资金撬动了较高幅度的 上涨行情，赚钱效应伴随市场关注度提升得到强化，受沪深主题映射扩 散的个股表现较优，并相较大盘显示出更大的估值弹性。其中，1）第一 轮"10·24 行情"："深改 19 条"政策改善市场预期，北交所流动性明 显提升，小资金撬动高涨幅后点燃赚钱效应，从而带动北交所进行系统 性估值修复。同时，2023 年 10 月以来 A 股市场风格偏好转为中小市值 股票，小盘股、微盘股走势表现相对较优，北证 50 指数在此背景下走 出了较为独立的一波上涨行情。2）第二轮 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·其他互联网服务 BOSS 直聘（BZ） 24Q3 业绩前瞻：企业招聘需求仍待回暖，利 润稳健释放 2024 年 12 月 09 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------|--------------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | [ 盈利预测与估值 Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | | 4,511 5,952 7,334 8,255 10,101 | | | | | 同比（ % ） | 6% | 32% | 23% | 13% | 22% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | 107 1,099 1,454 2,070 3,141 | | | | | 同比（ % ） | -109% | 925% | 32% | 42% | 52% | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | | 799 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the global crude oil industry, indicating a weak balance in supply and demand dynamics [1] Core Views - The global crude oil market is expected to maintain a weak supply-demand balance in 2025, with marginal changes in inventory levels [2] - Crude oil supply is projected to increase slightly in 2025, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC forecasting supply levels of 10490, 10466, and 10435 thousand barrels per day respectively [2] - Crude oil demand is expected to grow modestly in 2025, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC predicting demand levels of 10380, 10436, and 10557 thousand barrels per day respectively [2] Global Crude Oil Inventory - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict 2025 global crude oil inventory changes of 110, 30, and -122 thousand barrels per day respectively, with an average change of 6 thousand barrels per day [2] - The inventory predictions show an increase of 19 thousand barrels per day compared to October 2024 forecasts [2] Global Crude Oil Supply - IEA, EIA, and OPEC forecast 2025 crude oil supply at 10490, 10466, and 10435 thousand barrels per day respectively, representing increases of 200, 204, and 173 thousand barrels per day from 2024 [2] - The supply forecasts show minimal changes compared to October 2024 predictions, with adjustments of 0, +13, and -1 thousand barrels per day respectively [2] Global Crude Oil Demand - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict 2025 crude oil demand at 10380, 10436, and 10557 thousand barrels per day respectively, representing increases of 100, 122, and 154 thousand barrels per day from 2024 [2] - The demand forecasts show minor adjustments compared to October 2024 predictions, with changes of 0, +1, and -21 thousand barrels per day respectively [2] Recommended Companies - The report recommends investing in major Chinese oil companies including CNOOC, PetroChina, Sinopec, and their subsidiaries [4] - Companies to watch include Sinopec Oilfield Service, China Oilfield Services, and Petrochemical Machinery [4] Regional Supply Dynamics - IEA predicts 2025 crude oil supply growth will be concentrated in OECD Americas (US, Canada) and non-OECD Americas (Brazil, Guyana) [34] - EIA forecasts supply growth in North America (US, Canada) and Central/South America (Brazil, Guyana) [36] - OPEC expects supply growth primarily in OECD Americas (US, Canada) [41] US Crude Oil Production - EIA projects 2025 US crude oil production at 13530 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 300 thousand barrels per day from 2024 [78] - As of June 2024, US shale oil production reached 9850 thousand barrels per day, with Permian Basin accounting for 6190 thousand barrels per day [81] Global Demand Trends - Non-OECD countries, particularly China, are expected to drive global crude oil demand growth in 2025 [126] - IEA forecasts 2025 demand growth for jet fuel (+170 thousand barrels/day), diesel (+70 thousand barrels/day), and gasoline (+110 thousand barrels/day) [134] - China's 2025 demand is expected to show growth in jet fuel (+40 thousand barrels/day) and chemical feedstocks (LPG +120 thousand barrels/day, naphtha +140 thousand barrels/day) [138]

证券研究报告 汽车周观点： 第一周交强险同比+12.1%，继续看好汽车板块！ 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2024年12月09日 （ 全板块最新周观点 ◼ 本周复盘总结：十二月第一周交强险符合预期（同环比+12.1%/+9.9% ）。本周SW 汽车指数+3.6%，细分板块涨跌幅排序:重卡指数(+4.9%)>SW商用载客车(+4.1%)> S W摩托车及其他(+3.9%)>SW汽车(+3.6%)>SW汽车零部件(+3.6%)> SW乘用车(+3.4 %)> SW商用载货车(+1.8%)。本周已覆盖标的嵘泰股份、贝斯特、长华集团、赛力斯、 广汽集团涨幅较好。 ◼ 行业大事： 1）12月6日，吉利银河星舰7 EM-i上市，定位插电式混动紧凑型SUV，共 推出五个版本，限时售价为9.98-13.28万。2）12月5日，据彭博社报道，通用汽车拟 斥资逾50亿美元重组中国业务。 ◼ 本周团队研究成果：新势力跟踪之11月销量点评。 2 Q4投资策略要点 （ ◼ 板块景气度：2025年智能化（FSD入华）或=2020年电动化（model ...

Industry Investment Rating - Overweight (Maintained) [1] Core Views - AI+E-commerce is a significant application scenario, enhancing experience and efficiency across the entire industry chain [2] - AI empowers sellers to reduce costs and increase efficiency, allowing them to focus more on products while platforms and SaaS companies improve monetization efficiency [2] - AI enhances buyers' shopping decision-making efficiency and experience, boosting platform GMV and advertising potential [2] - Cross-platform integration is a potential approach for AI e-commerce applications, as seen in collaborations like Perplexity with Shopify [2] - Investment recommendations include e-commerce platforms like Focus Technology and ZDM, cross-border sellers like Huakai Yibai and Jinhong, and SaaS companies like Guangyun Tech and Weimob [2] AI Empowering Sellers Platforms - Amazon has launched free AI tools to improve seller efficiency, including AI-generated product descriptions and A+ content creation, with over 400,000 sellers using these tools by September 2024 [5] - Alibaba International AI has tested AI capabilities in over 40 scenarios, improving conversion rates, click-through rates, and customer satisfaction by 1-30% across platforms like AliExpress and Lazada [8] - Alibaba's domestic AI tools, such as "Huiwa," help sellers generate marketing content and AI models, reducing costs by 95% and improving efficiency [14] SaaS Companies - Shopify's AI tools, including Shopify Magic and Sidekick, are widely adopted, with 50% of merchants planning to use AI for content generation and 33% for SEO and customer targeting [22] - Weimob's WAI platform has seen a 237% increase in AI commercialization revenue, with a 75% renewal rate among small and medium-sized merchants [24] AI Enhancing Buyer Experience Platforms - Amazon's AI shopping assistant Rufus improves buyer engagement and conversion rates by providing personalized recommendations and real-time price information [29] - ZDM's AI shopping assistant "Xiao Zhi" has provided over 48.26 million consumer decision-making suggestions, with AI-recommended GMV accounting for 78.5% during Double 11 [31] Cross-Platform Integration - Perplexity's integration with Shopify allows users to search and compare products across multiple platforms, providing AI-driven recommendations [33] - Rebate Technology's AI-powered shopping assistant "Ruyi" offers services like price comparison, AI bargaining, and rebate checks [33] Investment Recommendations - E-commerce platforms: Focus Technology and ZDM are recommended, with attention on Rebate Technology [35] - Cross-border sellers: Huakai Yibai and Jinhong are recommended [35] - SaaS companies: Guangyun Tech, Ruoyuchen, Liren Lizhuang, Yiwang Yichuang, and Qingmu Tech are recommended, with attention on Weimob and Youzan in Hong Kong [35]

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·互联网传媒 增持（维持） 2024再看AI应用：AI有望长期驱动电商优质增长 证券分析师 ：张良卫 执业证书编号：S0600516070001 联系邮箱：zhanglw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：郭若娜 执业证书编号：S0600122080017 联系邮箱：guorn@dwzq.com.cn 2024年12月9日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心观点 ◼ 2023年我们多次强调AI+电商是个非常大的应用场景，对产业链的所有玩家都会带来体验和效率的提升，并在行业深度报告《AI+ 跨境电商：迎来收入和利润共振》中详细分析了AI促进跨境电商行业内各环节效率提升，包括推广环节、销售环节、基础设施等。 经过国内外重要玩家一年多的探索，AI大模型对电商产业链的赋能已初显成效： ◼ 面向卖家：AI助力卖家降本增效，卖家更多专注产品，平台与SAAS公司提高变现效率。 • 平台的机会：提高商家运营效率，助力商家增长以及平台GMV增长；增加AI增值服务，提高整体货币化率。 • SAAS公司的机会：增加AI增值服务，帮助商家降本增效，从而提高商家粘性、付费率和ARPU。 ◼ 面向买家：A ...

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·非白酒 百润股份（002568） 前瞻布局威士忌，含苞待放在蛇年 2024 年 12 月 09 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|----------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2593 | 3264 | 3197 | 3654 | 4124 | | 同比（ % ） | (0.04) | 25.85 | (2.06) | 14.31 | 12.85 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 521.28 | 809.42 | 769.09 | 882.68 | 1,006.94 | | 同比（ % ） | (21.74) | 55.28 | (4.98) | 14.77 | 14.08 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 0.50 | 0.77 | 0. ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·环保 环保行业跟踪周报 UCO 出口退税取消生柴利润上行，长期 SAF 需求空间大，关注化债下成长/运营重估/弹性 2024 年 12 月 09 日 增持（维持） 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 重点推荐：光大环境，昆仑能源，三峰环境，瀚蓝环境，兴蓉环境，洪城环境，景 津装备，伟明环保，宇通重工，美埃科技，九丰能源，龙净环保，高能环境，仕净 科技，金宏气体，蓝天燃气，新奥股份，赛恩斯，路德环境，盛剑科技，华特气体， 金科环境，英科再生。 ◼ 建议关注：绿色动力环保、北控水务集团、武汉控股、碧水源、海螺创业、军信股 份，永兴股份，旺能环境，新天然气，重庆水务，凯美特气，三联虹普，天壕能源。 ◼ UCO 出口退税取消，短期生柴利润上涨，长期看好 SAF 需求潜力。从 2024 年 12 月 1 日起取消 UCO 出口退税，有利于国内生物柴油和 ...