Macro Strategy - The report highlights a recovery in direct financing and the continued activation of deposits, with expectations for fiscal and monetary policies to boost financing demand in Q4 2025 [1][4][6] - The social financing scale in September 2025 saw an increase of 3.53 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan, slightly below the seasonal average [4][6] - The report notes that the structure of social financing is improving, indicating a recovery in direct financing, with corporate bond financing increasing by 10.5 billion yuan year-on-year [4][6] Fixed Income - The report discusses the upcoming issuance of Jinlang Convertible Bond 02, with a total issuance scale of 1.677 billion yuan, aimed at funding distributed photovoltaic projects [7][8] - The expected listing price range for Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 is between 111.44 and 123.92 yuan, with an anticipated subscription rate of 0.0069% [7][8] - Jinlang Technology, the issuer, has shown steady revenue growth with a compound annual growth rate of 33.10% from 2020 to 2024, despite fluctuations in net profit [8] Company Analysis - China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) is projected to see a net profit increase of 40%-60% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong performance in both underwriting and investment [9][10] - The underwriting profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45%, with a combined cost ratio of 94.8% [9][10] - The report raises the profit forecast for China Pacific Insurance, estimating net profits of 48 billion, 49.4 billion, and 52.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [9][10]

Core Conclusions - The market is expected to refocus on investment opportunities in smart vehicles in Q4, driven by the ongoing AI trend and the advancement of L4 capabilities in autonomous vehicles [2][3] - Key catalysts for smart vehicle development in Q4 include Tesla's V14 release, Xiaopeng's technology day, and the introduction of new autonomous vehicles by various companies [2][3] - The report anticipates a significant increase in L4 player participation by 2026, marking a pivotal year for Robotaxi [2] Comparison with Last Year - Similarities include the ongoing expansion of AI applications; however, this year emphasizes the evolution of AI logic rather than a resonance with automotive logic [3] - The focus has shifted from hardware opportunities and consumer sales to software opportunities and breakthroughs in B2B applications [3] Investment Strategy - Recommended investment strategy favors Hong Kong stocks over A-shares, prioritizing software over hardware, and B2B applications over B2C [6] - Key investment targets include companies involved in Robotaxi and Robovan, as well as those focusing on consumer vehicle sales [6] Consumer Willingness to Pay for Smart Features - The report outlines a projected growth in the domestic Robotaxi market, with expectations of reaching a scale of 0-30% penetration by 2025-2027 [14][15] - The focus for 2025-2027 is on enhancing the penetration of electric vehicles to 50%-80% [15] Autonomous Driving Capability Comparison - The report highlights the improvement in autonomous driving capabilities across various manufacturers, with a narrowing gap between leading and emerging players [7][20] - Specific penetration rates for autonomous driving features are provided, indicating a strong performance from brands like Xiaopeng and Wuling [20][23] Supply Chain Tracking - The report includes a detailed analysis of the smart vehicle supply chain, identifying key players in hardware, software, and vehicle manufacturing [10] - It emphasizes the importance of collaboration between technology providers and vehicle manufacturers to enhance the overall smart vehicle ecosystem [10] Market Outlook - The report forecasts a positive outlook for the passenger vehicle market, with expected retail sales growth in 2025 [24] - It also notes the impact of government policies on vehicle scrappage and the potential for increased consumer demand [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The expected listing price of Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 on the first - day is between RMB 111.44 and RMB 123.92, with an estimated lottery winning rate of 0.0069%. It is recommended to actively subscribe [2]. - Jinlang Technology has shown steady revenue growth since 2020, with a compound growth rate of 33.10% from 2020 - 2024. However, the mother - company's net profit has fluctuated, with a compound growth rate of 21.41% during the same period [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Convertible Bond Basic Information - Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 (123259.SZ) will start online subscription on October 17, 2025, with a total issuance scale of RMB 1.677 billion. The net proceeds after deducting issuance fees will be used for projects such as distributed photovoltaic power stations [2]. - The current bond floor valuation is RMB 97.79, with a YTM of 2.30%. The convertible bond has a 6 - year term, a credit rating of AA -/AA, and a par value of RMB 100. The coupon rates from the first to the sixth year are 0.20%, 0.40%, 0.80%, 1.20%, 1.80%, and 2.00% respectively. The company's redemption price at maturity is 110% of the par value (including the last - period interest) [2]. - The current conversion parity is RMB 90.46, with a parity premium rate of 10.55%. The conversion period is from April 23, 2026, to October 16, 2031. The initial conversion price is RMB 89.82 per share. Jinlang Technology's closing price on October 15 was RMB 81.25 [2]. - The convertible bond terms are average. The total share capital dilution rate is 4.48%, and the dilution rate for the floating shares is 5.49%, indicating a relatively small dilution pressure on the share capital [2]. 3.2. Investment Subscription Suggestion - By referring to comparable targets and empirical results, considering the good bond floor protection of Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 and the average attractiveness of its rating and scale, the expected first - day listing conversion premium rate is around 30%, corresponding to a listing price between RMB 111.44 and RMB 123.92 [2][14][15]. - The estimated priority subscription ratio of original shareholders is 65.45%, and the estimated lottery winning rate is 0.0069% [16][17]. 3.3. Underlying Stock Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1. Financial Data Analysis - Jinlang Technology is a high - tech enterprise focusing on the R & D, production, sales, and service of string inverters, the core equipment of photovoltaic power generation systems. Since 2020, its revenue has grown steadily, with a compound growth rate of 33.10% from 2020 - 2024. In 2024, the revenue was RMB 6.542 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.23%. The mother - company's net profit has fluctuated, with a compound growth rate of 21.41% from 2020 - 2024. In 2024, it was RMB 691 million, a year - on - year decrease of 11.32% [2][18]. - The company's revenue mainly comes from grid - connected inverters, and the product structure changes annually. From 2022 - 2024, the revenue proportion of grid - connected inverters in the main business revenue was 67.97%, 66.61%, and 57.96% respectively [20]. - The company's sales net profit margin and gross profit margin have remained stable. The sales expense ratio first decreased and then increased, the financial expense ratio has been rising, and the management expense ratio has shown a "W - shaped" fluctuation [25]. 3.3.2. Company Highlights - Jinlang Technology is an early entrant in the distributed photovoltaic inverter field in China, extending its advantages to the energy storage track. It is one of the leading global photovoltaic inverter manufacturers, with the world's top market share in household single - phase string inverters and ranking third globally for three consecutive years [34]. - The company has forward - looking track layout, achieving cross - field extension. It has built a "photovoltaic + energy storage" dual - wheel - driven business pattern and has obtained 55 authorized invention patents as of November 2024 [35]. - The company has deep technical barriers and outstanding solution capabilities. It has achieved AI technology empowerment for products in the full power range from 0.7kW to 350kW, and its core products have high - performance features [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit, with a forecasted increase of 40%-60% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, resulting in an estimated net profit of 375-428 billion yuan [8] - The company benefits from both underwriting and investment performance, with underwriting profit in the first half of 2025 reaching 13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45% [8][3] - The implementation of "reporting and operation in one" for non-auto insurance is expected to enhance the company's profitability and operational efficiency [3] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow from 478.83 billion yuan in 2023 to 638.95 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.49% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 24.59 billion yuan in 2023 to 52.76 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 6.70% [3] - The book value per share (BVPS) is forecasted to increase from 10.40 yuan in 2023 to 17.73 yuan in 2027 [3] Underwriting and Investment Performance - The company reported a total premium growth of 3.6% in the first half of 2025, with non-auto insurance premiums accounting for 55.4% of total premiums [3] - The combined cost ratio for auto insurance improved to 94.2%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better underwriting efficiency [3][13] - The investment portfolio saw a significant increase, with stock investments growing by 64% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [8][3]

Quantitative Factor and Construction Methodology - **Factor Name**: Turnover Distribution Uniformity (UTD) Factor [1][6][7] - **Factor Construction Idea**: The UTD factor is an improvement over the traditional turnover rate factor, leveraging minute-level transaction volume data to reduce misclassification of stock samples and enhance stock selection performance [1][6][7] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Collect minute-level transaction volume data for individual stocks [1][7] 2. Calculate the turnover rate distribution uniformity based on the dispersion of turnover rates across different time intervals [7] 3. Construct the UTD factor by quantifying the uniformity of turnover rate distribution [7] 4. Perform style, industry, and proprietary factor neutralization to ensure the purity of the UTD factor [1] - **Factor Evaluation**: The UTD factor significantly reduces the misclassification of stock samples and demonstrates superior stock selection performance compared to traditional turnover rate factors [1][6][7] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Traditional Turnover Rate Factor (Turn20)**: - Monthly IC Mean: -0.072 [6] - Annualized ICIR: -2.10 [6] - Annualized Return: 33.41% [6] - IR: 1.90 [6] - Monthly Win Rate: 71.58% [6] - **UTD Factor (2014/01-2025/09)**: - Annualized Return: 19.82% [1][7][12] - Annualized Volatility: 7.39% [1][7][12] - IR: 2.68 [1][7][12] - Monthly Win Rate: 77.30% [1][7][12] - Maximum Drawdown: 5.51% [1][7][12] - **UTD Factor (September 2025)**: - 10-group long portfolio return: 0.91% [1][11] - 10-group short portfolio return: 0.52% [1][11] - 10-group long-short portfolio return: 0.39% [1][11]

- The report introduces the "Information Distribution Uniformity (UID) factor" as a stock selection factor, which is constructed using minute-level data of individual stocks to calculate daily high-frequency volatility[1][6] - The UID factor significantly outperforms traditional volatility factors in stock selection, even after removing the interference of commonly used market styles and industries, with an annualized ICIR of -3.17[1] - The performance of the UID factor from January 2014 to September 2025 includes an annualized return of 26.48%, annualized volatility of 9.88%, an information ratio (IR) of 2.68, a monthly win rate of 78.72%, and a maximum monthly drawdown of 6.05%[1][7][12] - In September 2025, the 10-group long portfolio of the UID factor in the entire A-share market had a return of 1.84%, the 10-group short portfolio had a return of 0.04%, and the 10-group long-short hedged portfolio had a return of 1.80%[1][11] - The construction process of the UID factor involves using minute-level price data to calculate the high-frequency volatility of individual stocks and then constructing the UID factor based on the uniformity of information distribution[1][6] - The report highlights that the UID factor, despite being a single factor, shows good stock selection ability and can be a valuable addition to the factor library[1][6]

Macro Strategy - The report identifies three main policy directions: early use of debt quota, 500 billion policy financial tools, and monetary easing [1][4][5] - It predicts a moderate approach to new growth policies, focusing on stabilizing rather than stimulating the economy, with expected GDP growth of around 5% for the year [5][6] Fixed Income and REITs - The report suggests a strategic allocation in public REITs from urban investment platforms, emphasizing a "region first, type second" strategy to identify investment opportunities with economic resilience and stable cash flows [1][7] - It highlights the performance of various provincial REITs, noting that Zhejiang has five existing products with a total scale of 17.443 billion, while Guangdong has three products totaling 12.414 billion [7][8] Company Analysis: Xiaogoods City (小商品城) - Xiaogoods City reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 101%, driven by market operations and trade services [2][8] - The company achieved a revenue of 130.6 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a 23.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 34.6 billion, up 48.5% [2][8] - The report raises the profit forecast for Xiaogoods City for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 49.0 billion, 61.6 billion, and 72.8 billion respectively, reflecting a growth of 59%, 26%, and 18% [3][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 101% year-on-year, driven by significant growth in market operations and trade services [1] - The company achieved total revenue of 13.06 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.1% [7] - The company is strategically positioned as a key export hub under the Belt and Road Initiative, with multiple growth drivers such as new market expansions and the Chinagoods platform [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company forecasts total revenue of 22.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.44% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 4.90 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59.47% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 0.89 yuan per share in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 21.30 based on the closing price on October 15 [1][8] Market and Business Development - The new sixth-generation market, the Global Trade Center, commenced operations on October 14, 2025, contributing to revenue growth [7] - The YiwuPay payment service saw transaction volumes exceed 27 billion yuan, growing over 30% year-on-year, indicating expanding business opportunities [7] - The company has successfully launched an overseas market in Osaka, Japan, enhancing its global footprint [7] Future Outlook - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 upwards, now expecting 4.90 billion yuan, 6.16 billion yuan, and 7.28 billion yuan respectively, indicating strong growth potential [7] - The report highlights the ongoing development of the import positive list and overseas expansion as key growth areas [7]

Macro Strategy - The report identifies three main policy directions for economic stabilization: early use of debt quota, introduction of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools, and monetary easing [1][7][8] - It predicts that the economic growth rate for the third quarter will be between 4.7% and 4.9%, with an annual target of around 5.0% achievable if the fourth quarter growth exceeds 4.5% [7][8] - The report suggests that the new round of growth stabilization policies will be moderate, focusing on support rather than strong stimulus [8][9] Public REITs Market - The development of public REITs in China has gone through several stages: exploration (2005-2019), initial formation (2020-2021), innovation (2021-2024), and steady expansion (from July 2024 to present) [1][10] - As of September 2025, there are 75 public REITs with a total issuance of 194.33 billion yuan, indicating a growing market [10] - The report highlights that city investment platforms have played a crucial role in the public REITs market, helping to optimize capital structures and reduce debt through asset securitization [1][10] Company-Specific Insights Smoore International (06969.HK) - The company reported a revenue of 10.21 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, with a net profit of 1.13 billion yuan [2][12] - The third quarter saw a revenue increase of 27.2% year-on-year, driven by the successful iteration of new products and local marketing efforts [12] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with projected net profits of 1.33 billion, 2.22 billion, and 2.89 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [2][12] New China Life Insurance (601336) - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the third quarter, with estimates ranging from 30 billion to 34.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [3][13] - The increase is primarily attributed to improved investment returns and a favorable stock market environment [13] - The report raises the profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 38.7 billion, 40.2 billion, and 41.8 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [3][13] Chipone Technology (688049) - The company anticipates a revenue increase of 54.5% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit growth of 112.94% [4][16] - The focus on AI chip development has led to significant market penetration and revenue growth in various audio products [16] - The report maintains a "buy" rating, adjusting revenue forecasts slightly for 2025-2027 [4][16] Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891) - The company reported a 21.1% year-on-year revenue increase for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of 330 million yuan [5][18] - The growth is driven by strong performance in self-owned brands and a stable customer base in overseas markets [18] - The report maintains a "buy" rating with profit forecasts of 450 million, 550 million, and 650 million yuan for 2025-2027 [5][18] Zhenyu Technology (300953) - The company expects a net profit of 600 million to 620 million yuan for the third quarter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 364% to 413% [6][19] - The report highlights the successful expansion into robotics and the development of new products [19] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is raised to 600 million, 900 million, and 1.3 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [6][19]

M&A Dynamics Overview - From September 15 to October 12, there were a total of 308 merger and acquisition (M&A) events involving listed companies, with 85 classified as significant M&A transactions[9] - Out of these, 67 M&A transactions were completed, including 3 significant ones involving Weitai, Zongyi Co., and Longyang Electronics[9] Policy Updates - On September 30, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the need to deepen reforms in issuance, refinancing, and M&A to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of the capital market[7] - The CSRC also highlighted the importance of institutional investors in corporate governance and encouraged listed companies to increase dividend payouts and share buybacks[7] Major M&A Events - A total of 25 M&A events involved central state-owned enterprises as acquirers during the reporting period[13] - Significant transactions included the acquisition of 100% equity of Cangzhou Xuyang by Binhai Energy, valued at approximately CNY 264.86 million[14] M&A Failure Events - There were 12 failed M&A attempts during the reporting period, indicating a failure rate of approximately 3.9% of total M&A events[17] - Notable failures included the acquisition of 55% equity in Canxi Engineering by Bocheng Co., which was reported on October 11[18] Financial Regulations - New regulations stipulate that the proportion of equity financing in M&A transactions should not be less than 30%, while leveraged financing should not exceed 70% of the transaction value[7]