Economic Forecast - GDP growth forecasts for Q4 2025 to Q4 2028 have been revised up by 0.1pct, 0.5pct, 0.1pct, and 0.1pct to 1.7%, 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% respectively[2] - The unemployment rate for 2027 has been lowered by 0.1pct to 4.2%[2] - PCE inflation forecasts for Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 have been reduced by 0.1pct and 0.2pct to 2.9% and 2.4% respectively[2] FOMC Meeting Insights - The December FOMC meeting resulted in a 25bps rate cut, with a 9-3 vote, indicating a slight hawkish stance[4] - Six FOMC members opposed the rate cut, reflecting a more hawkish sentiment overall[4] - The Fed announced a "light expansion" of its balance sheet, purchasing $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills monthly[4] Market Reactions - Powell's dovish comments during the press conference led to a rise in gold, U.S. stocks, and commodities, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index fell[3] - The market is pricing in a 22% chance of a rate cut by January, 78% by April, and 221% by December 2026[5] Risks and Considerations - Risks include a faster-than-expected decline in U.S. employment and prolonged high interest rates potentially leading to liquidity crises[5] - Inflation risks are seen as significantly weakened, while GDP downside risks have eased[2]

Macro Strategy - The report highlights a shift in policy focus from "preventing and mitigating risks in key areas and external shocks" to "better coordinating domestic economic work and international economic struggles," indicating a more proactive approach to external economic conditions [1][16] - There is a transition from stabilizing asset prices to stabilizing microeconomic entities, emphasizing the importance of employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations over real estate and stock markets [2][16] - The policy language has evolved from "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" to "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," reflecting a balance between short-term stimulus and long-term economic structure considerations [2][16] Economic Indicators - The report anticipates a continued decline in the growth rate of social financing in November, while export growth is expected to turn positive [3][17] - The ECI supply index is reported at 49.93%, indicating a slight decline, while the demand index is at 49.87%, showing a marginal increase [17] - The report notes that the financing demand remains low, with expectations for November's new loans to be between 450 billion to 500 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease [17] Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry is expected to see structural opportunities driven by the explosion of AI computing power and accelerated domestic production [11] - In the electronics sector, the demand for AI-driven OS agents is anticipated to lead to a smartphone replacement wave, with AR glasses expected to see significant market entry in 2026 [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic enterprises in the storage sector, which are benefiting from increased procurement by cloud service providers, leading to a "super cycle" in pricing [11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced and proactive ETF allocation strategy in the A-share market, anticipating a period of range-bound trading with potential for sector rotation [7] - Specific recommendations include focusing on companies in the engineering machinery sector that have high export profitability, as well as those in the semiconductor and AI equipment sectors [12]

Investment Strategy Overview - The report highlights a significant investment opportunity in the electronic industry, driven by the dual forces of domestic cloud computing capabilities and the explosive growth of AI at the edge, marking a pivotal moment for the sector leading up to 2026 [1] Semiconductor Manufacturing - Capital expenditure in semiconductor manufacturing is set to reach new heights, with domestic fabs expected to experience a dual expansion in memory and advanced logic production in 2026, supporting a sustained high level of demand in the wafer foundry sector [2] - The semiconductor equipment sector is anticipated to witness a "β+α" resonance market, with a focus on industry leaders benefiting from expansion dividends and companies like Jingzhida and others that have a clear technology realization logic [2] Cloud Computing Chips - Global cloud service providers (CSPs) are increasing capital expenditures, with the combined capital expenditure of the four major overseas CSPs (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) reaching $97.9 billion in Q3 2025, a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase [5] - Domestic cloud computing is catching up, with significant growth potential as demand for computing power rises, particularly from leading firms like ByteDance [5][17] - Companies such as Cambricon and Haiguang Information are recommended for investment due to their expected performance release in the domestic computing power sector [5][17] Edge Computing Chips - The strategic importance of edge AI is rapidly increasing, with major tech companies integrating AI models into core products, enhancing the demand for System on Chip (SoC) manufacturers [7][36] - Companies like Amlogic and RichChip are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for edge AI applications, particularly in smart home devices [7][39] Storage Sector - The storage sector is experiencing a strong cyclical upturn, with DRAM and NAND indices showing significant increases of 101% and 79% respectively from September to November 2025 [5] - Major CSPs are increasing their procurement of storage products, leading to a sustained rise in storage prices and creating a "super cycle" in the industry [5] Analog Sector - The analog sector is seeing growth driven by increasing automotive demand, although price pressures are expected to persist [5] - The sector is poised for opportunities related to new AI applications as the industry evolves [5] Consumer Electronics - AI is driving a transformation in terminal interactions, with a notable shift in smartphone upgrades and the emergence of AR products [7] - The AR glasses market is expected to see significant growth in 2026, with major companies like Meta and Apple launching new products [7] PCB/CCL Market - The PCB/CCL market is set to benefit from increased capital expenditures by global cloud providers, with the AI PCB market projected to reach 60 billion yuan in 2026, a 229.8% year-on-year increase [7] - The introduction of low-loss materials and advanced architectures is expected to significantly enhance the value of PCB products [7]

Group 1: Equipment Export - The engineering machinery sector is expected to see a full domestic recovery and moderate export recovery in 2025, with a projected revenue growth of 12% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [52] - Key recommended companies for engineering machinery include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic, which are expected to benefit from both domestic and international demand [3][52] - The oil service equipment sector is poised for significant growth due to historical opportunities in the Middle East and the Belt and Road Initiative, with recommended companies including Jereh and Neway [3] Group 2: Domestic Demand Improvement - The photovoltaic equipment sector is entering a platform integration phase, with significant advancements in perovskite and heterojunction technologies, leading to increased equipment value [3] - The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to benefit from ongoing capacity expansions and solid-state battery technology, with recommended companies including Lead Intelligent and Hanke Technology [4] - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a recovery driven by domestic substitution and AI-related demand, with key recommendations including Northern Huachuang and Zhongwei [4] Group 3: High-Growth Sectors - The PCB equipment sector is entering a new expansion cycle driven by AI, with high demand for advanced HDI and SLP boards, with recommended companies including Dazhu CNC and Ding Tai High-Tech [5] - The liquid cooling equipment market is growing rapidly as it becomes a standard for AI server cooling, with key recommendations including Hongsheng and a focus on Invec [5] - The gas turbine and diesel generator sectors are expected to see significant growth due to increased electricity demand driven by AI, with recommended companies including Jereh and Yingliu [5] Group 4: New Technologies and Directions - The mass production of humanoid robots is anticipated, with domestic component manufacturers expected to benefit from cost reductions, with recommended companies including Hengli Hydraulic and New Coordinates [5] - The integration of new technologies in the photovoltaic sector is leading to industry transformation, with a focus on innovative solutions [5] Group 5: Performance Analysis - The semiconductor equipment and PCB equipment sectors are leading in revenue growth, with semiconductor equipment benefiting from advanced process expansions and PCB equipment driven by AI server demand [33] - The profit growth in the PCB equipment and general automation sectors is notable, with improvements in product structure and scale effects [33] - The overall machinery sector is experiencing a mild upward trend, with significant performance disparities among sub-sectors [11][20]

Macro Strategy - The report highlights a shift in policy focus from "preventing and mitigating risks in key areas and external shocks" to "better coordinating domestic economic work and international economic struggles," indicating a more proactive approach to external economic conditions [1][15] - There is a transition from stabilizing asset prices to stabilizing microeconomic entities, emphasizing the importance of employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations over real estate and stock markets [2][15] - The policy language has evolved from "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" to "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," reflecting a balance between short-term stimulus and long-term economic structure considerations [2][15] Industry Insights - The food and beverage industry strategy for 2026 emphasizes stock selection based on certainty, focusing on growth and turnaround opportunities, particularly in leading snack companies and quality retail chains [9] - The report suggests a keen interest in the health products sector, driven by an aging population and expanding young consumer demographics, with a focus on innovation and iteration in product offerings [9] - In the phosphoric chemical industry, companies with phosphate iron and phosphate rock resources are recommended, highlighting the significant cost contribution of phosphate sources to phosphate iron production [10] - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing price increases, with copper prices rising due to supply tightening and demand fluctuations, while aluminum prices are also on the rise amid stable production [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned in the first tier of Chinese noodle restaurants, with significant growth potential through accelerated store openings and a focus on standardized operations and digital management [9][24]. - The company has achieved a turning point in profitability, with revenue growth driven by an increase in the number of direct-operated stores [24][25]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on the high-potential Sichuan-Chongqing flavor segment, which is expected to grow significantly in the coming years [56]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - As of November 2025, the company operates 451 restaurants in 22 cities in mainland China and 14 in Hong Kong, with plans for 115 new openings [9][15]. - The company has seen revenue growth from 418 million to 1.154 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a CAGR of 66% [24]. 2. Market Positioning - The company holds a 0.5% market share in the Chinese noodle restaurant sector, ranking fourth among competitors [53]. - The global Chinese cuisine market is projected to reach 8.1 trillion yuan by 2024, with significant contributions from overseas markets [46]. 3. Store Expansion Strategy - The company plans to increase its store count to approximately 500 by the end of 2025 and aims to surpass 900 by 2027 through both vertical and horizontal expansion strategies [9][71]. - The majority of new stores will be direct-operated, with a focus on high-traffic shopping centers, which accounted for 64% of the store count in 2024 [67][69]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 16.55 billion, 24.42 billion, and 33.81 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 43%, 48%, and 38% respectively [1]. - The net profit for the same period is projected to be 1.33 billion, 2.43 billion, and 3.88 billion yuan, with growth rates of 119%, 83%, and 60% respectively [1].

证券研究报告·行业研究 动储需求旺盛，看好磷化工产业链发展前景 电新首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 大化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 电新证券分析师：岳斯瑶 执业证书编号：S0600522090009 石化化工证券分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 2025年12月9日 1 核心观点 2 目录 1. 磷化工产业链情况 2. 需求端：动力、储能拉动磷矿石&磷酸铁需求快速增长，磷肥需求走弱 3. 供给端：磷矿石计划新增产能较多，磷酸铁计划新增产能较少 4. 价格展望和供需平衡表测算 5. 投资建议 6. 风险提示 3 • 2.1 新兴需求：动储需求旺盛，其中储能对磷矿石需求量的拉动更强 • 2.2 传统需求：磷肥需求走弱，磷酸盐稳健运行 ◆ 需求端：1）磷矿石：2024年我国磷矿石需求量11320万吨，我们预计2025、2026年磷矿石需求量11802、12414万吨，实 际新增需求量482、612万吨，其中新兴领域的需求增长，而传统领域的需求下降。①新兴需求：动力及储能电池驱动磷化工 产业链景气度向上， ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a shift in valuation as a key strategy for investment in the food and beverage industry, with a relatively optimistic outlook for 2026 despite ongoing uncertainties [5][31][40] - The report identifies five key areas for stock selection to capture investment opportunities in 2026, focusing on health products, leading snack brands, quality retail chains, beverage leaders, and the recovery of the liquor and dairy sectors [5][40] Industry Trends - Consumer spending has been under pressure for an extended period, with CPI and retail sales growth remaining low, indicating a challenging environment for the food and beverage sector [5][16][23] - The overall revenue growth for the food and beverage sector has declined significantly from +14.5% in 2019 to +0.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit growth turning negative at -4.6% [23][26] - The report notes that the liquor sector is experiencing a significant downturn, with revenue and profit declines observed for the first time since 2017, highlighting the need for a recovery phase [23][26] Investment Strategy - The report advocates for a focus on certainty in investment, utilizing valuation shifts as a primary strategy, with an emphasis on continuous growth and the reversal of challenging conditions as key drivers for valuation recovery [5][31][32] - The report outlines that the recovery in consumer sentiment and spending is expected to be gradual, with specific attention to the liquor sector's potential for recovery in 2026 [5][22][39] Stock Selection - Five key areas for stock selection are identified: 1. Health products and wellness as a core growth area 2. Leading snack brands benefiting from supply chain improvements 3. Quality retail chains with expansion potential 4. Beverage leaders with long product life cycles 5. Liquor and dairy sectors poised for recovery [5][40] - The report highlights specific companies within these categories, such as Eastroc Beverage and Yili Group, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming period [5][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector recorded a week-on-week increase of 5.35%, ranking first among all primary industries, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and urgent metal warehouse conditions [1][14] - Industrial metals saw significant price increases, particularly copper, which reached a historical high due to supply concerns and rising demand expectations [2][29] - Precious metals strengthened overall, supported by declining interest rate expectations and silver market dynamics [4][42] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, while the non-ferrous metals sector increased by 5.35%, outperforming the index by 4.98 percentage points [14] - Among the sub-sectors, industrial metals surged by 9.14%, while energy metals declined by 0.53% [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: LME copper price reached $11,665 per ton, up 4.38% week-on-week; SHFE copper price was 92,780 CNY per ton, up 6.12% [2][29] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum price was $2,901 per ton, up 1.24%; SHFE aluminum price was 22,345 CNY per ton, up 3.40% [3][34] - **Zinc**: LME zinc price rose to $3,099 per ton, up 1.56%; SHFE zinc price was 23,305 CNY per ton, up 3.92% [37] - **Tin**: LME tin price reached $40,175 per ton, up 2.23%; SHFE tin price was 317,500 CNY per ton, up 4.08% [40] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,227.70 per ounce, down 0.67%; SHFE gold closed at 961.04 CNY per gram, up 0.75% [4][42] - **Silver**: The silver market experienced significant price increases due to delivery volume expansion and rapid inventory declines [43]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Lukfook Holdings (00590.HK) for the first time [1]. Core Insights - Lukfook Holdings is a leading jewelry retailer in Hong Kong and mainland China, with a significant recovery in same-store sales and expansion into overseas markets [8]. - The company has established a comprehensive multi-brand matrix, including Lukfook Jewellery, King Fook, Heirloom Fortune, Goldstyle, Lukfook Joaillerie, and Love LUKFOOK JEWELLERY, catering to various consumer segments [8]. - The report forecasts a steady recovery in performance from FY2026 onwards, with projected net profits of HKD 1.52 billion, HKD 1.73 billion, and HKD 1.93 billion for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +39%, +13%, and +12% [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Lukfook Holdings is a prominent jewelry retailer in Hong Kong and mainland China, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange since 1997. The company has expanded its brand matrix and currently operates over 3,100 retail points globally [13][8]. - For FY2025, the company reported total revenue of HKD 13.34 billion, a year-on-year decline of 13.0%, and a net profit of HKD 1.1 billion, down 37.8% year-on-year [13][8]. Multi-Brand Matrix - The company has developed a multi-brand strategy that covers various segments of the jewelry market, enhancing its market share and competitiveness [44]. - The core brand, Lukfook Jewellery, focuses on the mass market, while King Fook targets the high-end segment. Other brands cater to niche markets, ensuring a broad consumer appeal [44]. Financial Performance - The report highlights a recovery trend in financial performance, with FY2026H1 revenue reaching HKD 6.843 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, and a net profit of HKD 619 million, up 42.52% [24][23]. - The company’s gross margin improved significantly, reaching 33.1% in FY2025, an increase of 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising gold prices [25][30]. Market Expansion - As of March 2025, Lukfook Holdings operates in 11 countries and regions, with a total of 3,287 stores, including 3,179 in mainland China [63][64]. - The company plans to enter three new countries and add 50 overseas stores over the next three years, with 20 new stores planned for FY2026 [63][64].