证券研究报告·行业月报·保险Ⅱ 保险Ⅱ行业月报 保险行业 10 月月报：产险保费显著回暖，寿 险单月增速转负 2024 年 11 月 30 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 10 月单月人身险公司保费增速转负，预计主要受产品切换及开门红影 响。1）2024 年 1-10 月人身险原保费 38784 亿元，同比+14.7%，规模保 费 44132 亿元，同比+12.6%；人身险公司原保费收入同比+14.8%（可比 口径+7%）。10 月单月人身险公司原保费规模达 1562 亿元，同比-1.9%， 增速由正转负（9 月增速为+11.5%）。我们认为，10 月保费增速下滑主 要是由于：①人身险预定利率下调后市场短期销售乏力，②部分险企精 力转向开门红筹备。2）1-10 月保户投资新增交费（万能险为主）同比1%，投连险同比+27%。10 月单月保户投资新增交费同比-5%，增速由 正转负（9 月增速为+17%）；投连险同比-73%，较 9 月降幅收窄 54pct。 3）各险企 2025 年开门红普遍加大分红险销售力度，我们认为目前分红 险仍面临产品形态复杂销售难度较 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 市场开始交易海外通胀回落，贵金属资产价 格回落，工业金属录得环比上涨 2024 年 11 月 30 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（11 月 25 日-11 月 29 日），有色板块本周下跌 0.61%，在全部一级 行业中涨幅靠后。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中工业金属板块上 涨 0.05%，小金属板块下跌 0.24%，能源金属板块下跌 0.33%，金属新材料板块下 跌 2.52%，贵金属板块下跌 3.35%。工业金属方面，本周经济数据表明美国整体通 胀压力正在减轻，市场开始交易海外通胀回落，截至 11 月 29 日，本周美元指数冲 高回落，周环比下跌 1.58%，美国十年期国债收益率下跌 4.90%，本周工业金属录 得环比上涨。贵金属方面，本周中东地缘紧张大幅缓解，地缘政治风险对黄金的溢 价部分在本周大幅消退，叠加通胀类资产的价格回落，本周黄金价格录得大幅回调， 预计短期仍处于筑底阶段。 ◼ 周观点： 铜：美元指数冲高回落，预计短期铜价将完成筑底震荡上行。截至 11 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 封航导致库存攀升，大范围降温促煤价企稳 反弹 2024 年 11 月 30 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（11 月 25 日至 11 月 29 日）港口动力煤现货价环比下跌 6 元/吨， 报收 818 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量180.90万吨，环比上周减少12.64 万吨，降幅 6.53%。本周煤炭供应稳中有降，港口主要受天气影响调入 量有所减少，煤矿供应由于寒潮天气部分线路运输受阻，叠加部分煤矿 由于月底完成生产任务检修停产，供应有限。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量152.90 万吨，环比上周减少27.84 万吨，降幅 15.47%；日均锚地船舶 77 艘，环比上周增加 22 艘，增幅 41%。库存端，环渤海四港区库存 3108.80 万吨，环比上周增加 185.40 万吨，增幅 6.34%。港口库存和船舶数量攀升，主要是受近期大风天气 影响、长时间封航导致；随着华东地区大范围降温，最终电厂日耗持续 增长，需求改善有利于煤价企稳。 我们分析认为：煤炭价格在 9-1 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·药品及生物科技(HS) 和黄医药（00013.HK） 赛沃替尼成功续约医保谈判，美国报产在即 2024 年 11 月 30 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|----------|--------|----------|--------|--------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万美元） | 426.41 | 838.00 | 665.00 | 808.00 | 969.00 | | 同比 (%) | 19.73 | 96.52 | (20.64) | 21.50 | 19.93 | | 归母净利润（百万美元） | (360.84) | 100.78 | (41.78) | 48.83 | 178.71 | | 同比 (%) | (85.38) | 127.93 | (141.46) | 216.88 | 265.95 | | EPS- ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略深度报告 策略深度报告 20241130 12 月度金股："以我为主"的内需与科技 2024 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Tag] [观点Table_Summary] ◼ 11 月 A 股上攻不畅、H 股回落调整，我们认为有以下几点原因：第一， 美元指数冲高虹吸全球流动性、人民币汇率承压；第二，内部宏观层面 的"弱现实"，以及在 11 月 8 日"6+4+2 万亿"化债方针落地后，总量 政策再次进入真空期；第三，以特朗普贸易政策为代表的外部扰动加剧。 ◼ 展望 12 月，对于第一点，尽管我们中长期看好美元利率下行，但短期 内难以确认美元指数和人民币汇率拐点。对于第二点，月内政治局会议、 中央经济工作会议将成为重要的政策观察窗口。对于第三点，在大国博 弈背景下，美对中的贸易政策拉锯和科技封锁加码将成为"特朗普 2.0" 时期不可忽视的扰动因素。随外部不确定性放大，"畅通内循环"和"对 非美地区扩大开放"的重要性进一步提升。我们认为，"以我为主"的 宏观逆周期调控和科技自立自强将成为面向 2025 年的重要政策基调， 也将成为 12 月市场交易的重要线索。 ◼ 12 月，在政 ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·保险Ⅱ 保险Ⅱ行业点评报告 保险资产风险分类新规发布，有利于进一步 压实保险资产质量管理 2024 年 11 月 29 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 【事件】11 月 29 日金监总局发布《保险资产风险分类暂行办法》（简称 《暂行办法》），是对 2014 年发布的《保险资产风险五级分类指引》（简 称《指引》）进行的修订，新规自 2025 年 7 月 1 日起施行。具体内容包 括： ◼ 扩大资产风险分类的覆盖范围。①《指引》仅对以公允价值计量以外的 投资资产进行风险分类，《暂行办法》除特殊情形（现金及流动性管理 工具、上市普通股票、公募基金等）外将所有投资资产纳入分类范围。 ②与 8 月发布的征求意见稿相比，增加了货币市场类组合类保险资产管 理产品、现金管理类理财产品、商业票据和自用性不动产作为除外项目。 ◼ 完善固定收益类资产分类标准。①保留了固收资产五级分类（正常类、 关注类、次级类、可疑类和损失类），但调整了本金或利息的逾期天数、 减值准备比例标准等，与商业银行保持一致。②增加了利益相关方风险 管理状况、抵质押物质量等内 ...

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·电子 电子行业深度报告 半导体材料行业深度（一）：周期上行叠加国 产替代双击，半导体材料赛道长坡厚雪 2024 年 11 月 29 日 增持（维持） 证券分析师 马天翼 执业证书：S0600522090001 maty@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 金晶 执业证书：S0600523050003 jinj@dwzq.com.cn [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 国际形势愈发严峻，多方助力半导体材料国产化加速：11 月特朗普宣布 赢得 2024 年美总统选举后，预计在科技领域可能加大对华高科技出口 管制，包括半导体等，可能通过"实体清单"等手段限制中国科技企业。 这些措施构成全方位封锁网，从设备、人才、技术、资本等多维度围堵 中国半导体产业，美国打压策略已扩展至联合盟友和全产业链封锁。自 2022 年 10 月美国出台"半导体制造"最终用途限制措施以来，对比 22 年与 24 年国产化率数据，我国半导体国产化率在部分领域有所提升， 但仍存在不少挑战。国家大基金与各地专项基金持续助力，相较于一期 更侧重 IC 制造，国家大基金二期则更加关注设备 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry, indicating that the industry has reached a turning point with a potential reversal in profitability [4] Core Views - The LFP industry is at a critical inflection point, with high-end product iterations strengthening the competitive advantages of leading companies [3] - Domestic electrification and overseas energy storage demand have exceeded expectations, leading to a significant recovery in LFP capacity utilization [3] - The processing fees for LFP have limited room for further decline, and profitability is expected to rebound in the near future [4] High-End Product Trends - High-end LFP products with higher compaction density are becoming the industry trend, with leading companies like Hunan Yuneng achieving a compaction density of 2.652 g/cm³, which improves performance significantly [23] - The market share of high-end LFP products is expected to increase from 30% to 40-60% by next year, with higher processing fees and improved profitability [3][23] - Leading companies are adopting advanced secondary sintering processes, which provide a competitive edge in producing high-density LFP products [26] Demand Dynamics - Domestic LFP demand is driven by the penetration of LFP batteries into high-end vehicle models, with LFP battery costs being 10-20% lower than ternary batteries [10] - The energy storage market is growing rapidly, with LFP battery demand expected to increase by over 40% in 2024, driven by both domestic and international markets [38] - Overseas automakers are beginning to adopt LFP batteries for entry-level models, with major players like Volkswagen, Stellantis, and BMW planning to introduce LFP-based vehicles by 2025-2026 [40] Supply and Capacity Utilization - The LFP industry's capacity utilization rate has significantly recovered, reaching over 60% in September, with leading companies like Hunan Yuneng operating at full capacity [3] - The industry's capacity expansion has slowed down due to financing difficulties and low profitability, with new capacity additions expected to be limited in 2024 [50] - By 2025, the industry's capacity utilization rate is expected to exceed 60%, with peak utilization rates reaching 70% during high-demand periods [54] Competitive Landscape - Leading companies like Hunan Yuneng are gaining market share, with their share increasing to 33% in the first nine months of 2024, while smaller players are struggling to maintain production levels [61] - The pricing of LFP products is based on cost-plus models, with processing fees currently at historical lows, putting pressure on profitability for second-tier manufacturers [64] - Leading companies have significant cost advantages due to economies of scale and efficient cost management, with Hunan Yuneng maintaining profitability while others face losses [72] Profitability Outlook - The profitability of LFP manufacturers is expected to improve, with leading companies like Hunan Yuneng projected to achieve a net profit of 0.2-0.3 million RMB per ton by 2024 [4] - High-end products with higher compaction density offer a premium of 1-3k RMB per ton, contributing to improved profitability for leading companies [30] - The industry is expected to reach a profitability inflection point by late 2024 or early 2025, driven by improved capacity utilization and potential price increases [77] Leading Company Analysis: Hunan Yuneng - Hunan Yuneng is expected to achieve a production capacity of 70+ million tons in 2024, with a 40% year-on-year growth in shipments [80] - The company's high-end products, such as the CN-5 and YN-9 series, account for 30% of total sales, with this proportion expected to increase to 40-60% by 2025 [83] - Hunan Yuneng's integration of phosphorus resources and recycling is expected to further enhance profitability, with phosphorus mining contributing an additional 200 RMB per ton of LFP by 2025 [90] Investment Recommendation - Hunan Yuneng is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.2 billion RMB in 2025, driven by increased shipments of high-end products and improved profitability [94] - The company is recommended as a top pick, with a target price of 67 RMB and a "Buy" rating [94]

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·元件 鹏鼎控股（002938） AI 浪潮下，FPC 有望迈入新的增长周期 2024 年 11 月 29 日 买入（首次） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------|---------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 36211 | 32066 | 35959 | 41132 | 44699 | | 同比（ % ） | 8.69 | (11.45) | 12.14 | 14.39 | 8.67 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5012 | 3287 | 3546 | 4108 | 4730 | | 同比（ % ） | 51.07 | (34.41) | 7.88 | 15.85 | 15.13 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 2.16 | 1.42 | 1.53 | 1.77 | ...

Industry Investment Rating - Overweight (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Huawei HiSilicon is a leading IC design company globally, with comprehensive technology coverage in AI, cloud computing, smartphone SoCs, and 5G [1] - China's semiconductor market is the largest globally, with a 27% share in 2023, and is expected to grow to $1,467.9 billion by 2032, driven by AI and new energy vehicle demand [1] - HiSilicon's platform-based sales model and standardized technology enable customized solutions for large clients, fostering growth in AI and cloud computing [1] - HiSilicon has achieved breakthroughs in chip manufacturing processes, with its Kirin series chips ranking third globally in Q2 2020, capturing 16% market share [1] Huawei HiSilicon: Domestic Leader with Global Competitiveness - HiSilicon is a global leader in semiconductor and device design, covering multiple fields such as AI, cloud computing, and 5G [17] - HiSilicon's revenue is expected to grow further due to increasing domestic substitution demand, with its Kirin chips returning to the global top five [17] - HiSilicon has a strong historical performance, ranking fifth globally in 2018 with a 34.2% YoY revenue growth [20] - Huawei's 2023 revenue reached 704.2 billion yuan, a 9.6% YoY increase, with HiSilicon playing a crucial role in Huawei's domestic substitution strategy [21] China's Semiconductor Market: Largest and Fastest Growing - China's semiconductor market was $1,553 billion in 2023, accounting for 27.1% of the global market [26] - The global semiconductor market is expected to grow by 20% in 2024, driven by strong demand in China [26] - China's consumer electronics market was $7,734 billion in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 7.63% from 2024 to 2032 [29] - The new energy vehicle electronics market in China reached 228.1 billion yuan in 2023, with a penetration rate exceeding 30% [30] Platform-Based Sales Model: Customization and Ecosystem Expansion - HiSilicon's platform-based sales model provides customized solutions for large clients, particularly in AI and cloud computing [34] - The "5+2" smart terminal solution launched in 2024 showcases HiSilicon's strength in audio-visual, connectivity, and IoT technologies [34] - Distributors play a key role in covering small and medium-sized enterprises, ensuring widespread application of HiSilicon's products [39] - HiSilicon's modular approach reduces development costs and enhances partners' innovation capabilities [43] Breakthroughs in Chip Manufacturing and Domestic Substitution - HiSilicon has established a comprehensive chip product system, including AI chips (Ascend), cloud processors (Kunpeng), and 5G chips (Balong) [47] - The Kirin chip series, initially licensed from Cambricon, has achieved significant market share, ranking third globally in Q2 2020 with 16% market share [47] - Huawei's Mate60 series, launched in 2023, marked a breakthrough in domestic substitution, with most components being locally sourced [49] - Huawei's PanGu large model leads in domestic AI capabilities, with its NLP model ranking first in the CLUE benchmark in 2019 [51] Related Investment Opportunities - Testing services: Companies like Oriental Zhongke and Suzhou Test ensure product quality and reliability [56] - Application cooperation: Partners such as Century Dingli and Runhe Software expand HiSilicon's market reach [57] - Distributors: Shenzhen Huaqiang and Lierda Information help HiSilicon penetrate the SME market [58] - Semiconductor: Companies like SiRuipu and VeriSilicon are key players in Huawei's R&D and investment routes [59]