证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 北交所定期报告 20241201 北证指数震荡回调，继续看好长期向好趋势 2024 年 12 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 行情回顾：本周北证 50 指数下跌 1.03%：截至 2024 年 11 月 29 日收盘 报 1282.39 点，较上周收盘价同比下跌 1.03%；板块比较来看，沪深 300 指数较上周收盘价上升 1.32%；创业板指数上涨 2.23%；科创 50 指数上 涨 3.92%。 ◼ 北证 A 股板块对比：截至 2024 年 11 月 29 日，北证 A 股成分股共 259 个，平均市值达 26.51 亿元。从流动性表现来看，本周北证 A 股成交额 达 1640.80 亿元，较上周下降 19.04%。区间换手率为 58.13%，同比9.47pct。综合来看，北证 A 股在成分股个数、平均市值、换手率和交易 量等方面仍有待提升。 行业重要新闻： ◼ 《全国统一电力市场发展规划蓝皮书》发布：进一步推进全国统一电力 市场建设，在国家能源局统筹组织下，11 月 29 日，《全国统一电力市 场发展规划蓝皮书》发布，提 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the challenges faced by A-shares and H-shares in November, including the impact of the strong US dollar, weak domestic macroeconomic conditions, and external disturbances such as Trump's trade policies [1] - Looking ahead to December, the report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and technological self-reliance as key policy themes, with a focus on internal circulation and expanding openness to non-US regions [1] - The report suggests that the market will closely watch policy signals from the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, while external uncertainties, particularly US-China trade and tech tensions, will remain significant [1] Policy Expectations and Market Configuration - The report recommends focusing on domestic demand and technology sectors, particularly those related to infrastructure and new industries, as incremental policy signals are expected to be released during key meetings [2] - The "Two Heavy" and "Two New" sectors, supported by special bonds, are highlighted as areas of opportunity, with the potential for a "cross-year" market rally driven by policy expectations [2] - Technological self-reliance, especially in areas like chip manufacturing, is seen as a critical component of internal circulation, with innovation in sectors like new energy, AI, and aerospace expected to receive significant policy support [2] Recommended Stock Portfolio - The report provides a detailed list of recommended stocks across various sectors, including aerospace, electronics, commerce, food and beverage, and new energy, with financial metrics such as market capitalization, EPS, and PE ratios [3] - Key stocks include **Aerospace Electronics**, **Hongrida**, **Trip.com Group**, **Yiwu Commodity City**, **Shede Liquor**, **CATL**, **Meyer Burger**, **Softpower**, **Tonghuashun**, and **SAIC Motor** [3] Sector-Specific Insights Aerospace Electronics - **Aerospace Electronics** is expected to benefit from the acceleration of commercial aerospace industrialization, breakthroughs in satellite link technology, and the expansion of the drone market, particularly in military and logistics applications [13][14][15] - The company's focus on high-growth areas like satellite internet and low-altitude economy is expected to drive future performance [13][14] Hongrida - **Hongrida** is positioned to capitalize on the recovery in its traditional business and the potential for domestic substitution in semiconductor heat sink materials, with projected revenue growth from 8 5 billion to 13 9 billion yuan by 2025 [19][20][21] Trip.com Group - **Trip.com Group** is expected to see strong recovery in domestic travel and growth in international travel, with adjusted net profit projected to increase from 16 7 billion to 20 1 billion yuan by 2026 [24][27][28] Yiwu Commodity City - **Yiwu Commodity City** is benefiting from the high growth of small commodity exports and the expansion of its global trade center, with rent increases and new business initiatives expected to drive profit growth [30][31][34][35] Shede Liquor - **Shede Liquor** is focusing on inventory adjustments and market expansion, with projected net profit growth from 9 2 billion to 11 9 billion yuan by 2026 [38][39][42] CATL - **CATL** is expected to maintain its leadership in the global battery market, with projected net profit growth from 50 2 billion to 75 6 billion yuan by 2026, driven by its cost and technological advantages [46][47][48] Meyer Burger - **Meyer Burger** is positioned to benefit from the acceleration of HJT technology in the solar industry, with its market leadership and technological advancements expected to drive growth [53][54][55] Softpower - **Softpower** is expected to benefit from the commercialization of the HarmonyOS ecosystem, with its position as a key player in the industry driving growth [61][62][63] Tonghuashun - **Tonghuashun** is expected to see growth in its C-end business due to increased market activity, with projected net profit growth from 14 4 billion to 19 0 billion yuan by 2026 [71][72][73] SAIC Motor - **SAIC Motor** is undergoing significant reforms, with a focus on intelligent competition and new energy vehicles, expected to drive future growth [78][79][80]

证券研究报告 谷子经济景气出圈，政策支持跨境电商 ——每周主题、产业趋势交易复盘和展望 证券分析师：陈刚 证券分析师：陈李 研究助理：孔思迈 执业证书编号：S0600523040001 邮箱：cheng@dwzq.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0600518120001 邮箱：yjs_chenl@dwzq.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0600124070019 邮箱：kongsm@dwzq.com.cn 2024年12月1日 目录 1、本周市场回顾 2、产业趋势交易回顾与展望 3、风险提示 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 2 1. 本周市场回顾 注：本周交易日为11月25日-29日，后文同 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 3 一:大盘走势 分割 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 [日 月 更多 F9 复权 虚吸叠加 面线 工具 @ > g 0000 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Views - The new regulation on insurance asset risk classification, effective from July 1, 2025, aims to enhance the quality management of insurance assets by expanding the scope of risk classification and refining standards for fixed income, equity, and real estate assets [1][2] - The regulation is expected to improve the transparency of insurance asset quality and guide insurance institutions to strengthen comprehensive risk management [3] - With the gradual recovery of the domestic macroeconomy and the further consolidation of industry risk management, market concerns about the quality of insurance companies' assets are expected to ease [3] - The insurance sector is currently undervalued, with a P/EV range of 0.56-0.88x for 2024E, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [3] Key Changes in Asset Risk Classification - **Expanded Coverage**: The new regulation includes all investment assets except for specific exclusions such as cash, liquidity management tools, listed common stocks, and public funds [1] - **Fixed Income Assets**: The classification retains the five-tier system but adjusts the overdue days for principal or interest and the proportion of impairment provisions to align with commercial banks [2] - **Equity and Real Estate Assets**: The classification is simplified from five tiers to three (normal, substandard, and loss), with clearer qualitative and quantitative standards [2] - **Implementation Management**: The regulation optimizes the three-level workflow of "initial classification, review, and approval" and requires insurance companies to include asset risk classification in internal and external audits [2] Market and Valuation Insights - The insurance sector is currently undervalued, with a P/EV range of 0.56-0.88x for 2024E, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [3] - Public funds' holdings of insurance stocks remain low, and valuations have fully reflected negative factors [3] - The 10-year government bond yield has recently fallen to around 2.02%, and a potential stabilization or recovery in long-term interest rates could alleviate pressure on the yield of new fixed-income investments for insurance companies [3] Industry Trends - The insurance industry has shown a recovery trend, with the sector outperforming the CSI 300 index in recent months [5]

证券研究报告 大炼化周报：下游需求走弱，涤纶长丝偏弱运行 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 2024年12月1日 投资要点 ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2465.64元/吨，环比+100.23元/吨（环比 +4.24%）；国外重点大炼化项目本周价差为961.07元/吨，环比+69.15元/吨（环比+7.75%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6800/7386/8346元/吨，环比分别-114/-79/-100元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为-3/120/161元/吨，环比分别-62/-38/-53元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 17.3/21.8/24.9天，环比分别+0.4/+0.3/+0.7天，长丝开工率为88.87%，环比-0.13pct。下游方面，本周织机开 工率为66.79%，环比-1.74pct，织造企业原料库存为8.76天，环比+0.18天，织造企业成品库存为8.76天，环比- 15.68天。 ◼ 【炼油板块】国 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·机械设备 机械设备行业跟踪周报 看好工程机械全球竞争力加强；推荐锂电设 备技术迭代&龙头深度绑定强者恒强 2024 年 12 月 01 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [1.Table_Summary] 推荐组合：北方华创、三一重工、中微公司、恒立液压、中集集团、拓荆科技、海天 国际、柏楚电子、晶盛机电、杰瑞股份、浙江鼎力、杭叉集团、迈为股份、先导智能、 长川科技、华测检测、安徽合力、精测电子、纽威股份、芯源微、绿的谐波、海天精 工、杭可科技、伊之密、新莱应材、高测股份、纽威数控、华中数控。 2.投资要点： 【工程机械】宝马展火爆验证中国品牌全球竞争力，看好工程机械出海长期逻辑 11.26-11.29 在上海举办的工程机械宝马展现场火爆，吸引全球客户参加，人流量空前， 充分验证中国品牌在全球的品牌力和竞争力正在大幅提升。展会期间，三一重工、徐 工机械、中联重科、山推股份、浙江鼎力等核心主机厂均发布各类新品，多聚焦于大型 化、电动化、智能化，凸显中国品牌日益提升的技术创新能力。依托国内锂电及智驾产 业链优势，中国品牌工程机械在电动化和智能化方面的布局大幅领先，有望凭借新技 ...

证券研究报告 基础化工周报：MDI价格走低 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 2024年12月1日 投资要点 ◼ 【聚氨酯板块】本周纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业均价为19130/17990/12600元/吨，环比分别-170/- 150/+0元/吨，纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业毛利分别为5891/5734/-66元/吨，环比分别-181/-224/- 413元/吨。 ◼ 【油煤气烯烃板块】①本周乙烷/丙烷/动力煤/石脑油均价分别为1199/4526/653/4549元/吨，环比分 别+54/+32/-2/-32元/吨。②本周聚乙烯均价为8400元/吨，环比+35元/吨，乙烷裂解/CTO/石脑油裂 解制聚乙烯理论利润分别为1658/1916/26元/吨，环比分别-18/+30/+57元/吨。③本周聚丙烯均价为 7300元/吨，环比+0元/吨，PDH/CTO/石脑油裂解制聚丙烯理论利润分别为-253/1378/-324元/吨， 环比分别-31/+0/+28元/吨。 ◼ 【煤化工板块】本周合成氨/尿素/DMF/ ...

证券研究报告 基础化工周报：MDI价格走低 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 2024年12月1日 投资要点 ◼ 【聚氨酯板块】本周纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业均价为19130/17990/12600元/吨，环比分别-170/- 150/+0元/吨，纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业毛利分别为5891/5734/-66元/吨，环比分别-181/-224/- 413元/吨。 ◼ 【油煤气烯烃板块】①本周乙烷/丙烷/动力煤/石脑油均价分别为1199/4526/653/4549元/吨，环比分 别+54/+32/-2/-32元/吨。②本周聚乙烯均价为8400元/吨，环比+35元/吨，乙烷裂解/CTO/石脑油裂 解制聚乙烯理论利润分别为1658/1916/26元/吨，环比分别-18/+30/+57元/吨。③本周聚丙烯均价为 7300元/吨，环比+0元/吨，PDH/CTO/石脑油裂解制聚丙烯理论利润分别为-253/1378/-324元/吨， 环比分别-31/+0/+28元/吨。 ◼ 【煤化工板块】本周合成氨/尿素/DMF/ ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20241130 经济修复分化，等待 12 月政策接力 ——11 月 PMI 数据点评 2024 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 11 月 30 日，国家统计局公布 11 月 PMI 数据。制造业采购经理指数 （PMI）为 50.3%，比上月回升 0.2 个百分点。建筑业 PMI 指数为 49.7%， 比上月回落 0.7 个百分点；服务业 PMI 指数为 50.1%，与上月持平。 观点 ◼ 在前期"一揽子增量政策"的带动下，11 月经济继续修复，但修复动能 在边际走弱。动能趋弱体现在 PMI 环比增速方面，9 月和 10 月制造业 PMI 环比增速分别为 0.7%和 0.3%，相比 2013-2023 年同期的历史均值 高 0.5 和 0.6 个点；而 11 月制造业 PMI 环比增速降至 0.2%，尽管仍高 于历史均值，但幅度收窄至 0.1 个点。 ◼ 除了动能趋弱外，更重要的变化是行业分化。按照 11 月环比增速来看 行业景气度的变化，制造业环比+0.3%>服务业环比 0>建筑业环比0.7%。制造业改善是 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·医药生物 、 医药生物行业跟踪周报 医保多维度支持国产创新药，建议关注迪哲 药业、恒瑞医药等 2024 年 12 月 01 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 本周、年初至今医药指数涨幅分别为 2.95%、-9.29%，相对沪深 300 的 超额收益分别为 1.63%、-23.43%；本周化药（+4.89%）、原料药（+3.58%） 及医疗服务（+2.84%）等股价涨幅相对较大，医疗器械（+1.57%）、中 药（+1.95%）及医药商业（+1.96%）等股价涨幅较小；本周涨幅居前葫 芦娃（+49.64%）、热景生物（+21.78%）、数字人（+21.44%），跌幅居前 圣达生物（-19.55%）、*ST 景峰（-17.87%）、辰光医疗（-16.43%）。涨 跌表现特点：本周医药板块大小市值均出现普涨，其中顺周期的消费医 疗涨幅更加明显，尤其是普瑞眼科等。 ◼ 2024 年版国家医保药品目录发布，多维度支持国产创新药。2024 年 11 月 28 日，国家医保局发布了 2024 年版国家医保药品目录。今年在谈判 /竞价环节，共有 ...