证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 北交所定期报告 20251128 工信部召开动力和储能电池产业座谈会，北 证 50 上涨 0.39% 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 陈哲晓 执业证书：S0600124080015 sh_chenzhx@dwzq.com.cn 2025 年 11 月 28 日 相关研究： 《央行逆回购 3105 亿元稳流动性北 证 50 下跌 1.4%》 2025-11-19 《北证 50 缩量下跌,广东印发数字经 济新三年方案》 2025-11-20 东吴证券研究所 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 资本市场新闻：1）加密货币市场集体大涨，美联储主席人选 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leading global player in the smart security chip market, focusing on AIoT and automotive sectors, with a robust growth trajectory expected in the coming years [8]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 29.34 billion yuan, 36.33 billion yuan, and 44.87 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.7 billion yuan, 4.1 billion yuan, and 5.9 billion yuan [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the research and sales of smart security chips, with applications in smart security, AIoT, and automotive sectors [13]. - It has a stable shareholding structure with significant investment from MediaTek, ensuring no controlling shareholder [14]. Financial Analysis - The company reported a revenue of 2.354 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.49%, and a net profit of 256.26 million yuan, up 25.18% year-on-year [20]. - The smart security segment remains the primary revenue source, consistently contributing over 50% to total revenue [23]. Smart Security Market - The global market for smart security is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3% from 2021 to 2026, reaching 29.9 billion USD by 2026 [41]. - The company holds a leading market share in both IPC SoC and NVR SoC segments, with 36.5% and 38.7% market shares respectively in 2021 [49]. Smart IoT and Automotive Sectors - The company is expanding into the smart IoT market, particularly in robotic and AI glasses sectors, leveraging its visual AI and 3D sensing technologies [60]. - In the automotive sector, the company is the second-largest supplier of driving recorder chips in China, with plans to penetrate the front-mounted market [8]. Research and Development - The company maintains a high R&D expenditure, with a rate of 25.59% in 2024, reflecting its commitment to innovation and product development [27]. - The R&D team constitutes 77.5% of the total workforce, indicating a strong focus on technological advancement [27].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Zhongli Co., Ltd. (603194) [1] Core Views - Zhongli Co., Ltd. is a global leader in electric warehouse forklifts, driving the transformation of material handling technology towards electrification, greening, and intelligence [2][16] - The company has a complete product line of warehouse forklifts and intelligent handling robots, with a strong market position in China and significant international presence [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing electrification trend in the forklift industry, with robust revenue and profit growth projected in the coming years [4][48] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2007, Zhongli Co., Ltd. focuses on the R&D, production, and sales of forklifts and intelligent handling robots, leading the industry in electrification and green development [2][16] - The company has maintained a leading market share in electric warehouse forklifts in China since 2013, with a strong international sales network covering North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia [2][16] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 22 billion yuan in 2019 to 66 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 25% [2][26] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.5 billion yuan in 2019 to 8.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 41% [2][26] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 52 billion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.9 billion yuan, up 5.5% year-on-year [2][26] Market Trends - The forklift industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 8% from 2015 to 2024, driven by investments in manufacturing and logistics, as well as the electrification trend [2][3] - The global market for balance-weight forklifts is projected to have significant growth potential, with the lithium battery penetration rate expected to increase [3][41] Competitive Advantages - Zhongli Co., Ltd. has a strong competitive edge due to its established brand, comprehensive product offerings, and significant international market share [3][41] - The company's gross profit margin has improved from 26.7% in 2022 to 29.7% in 2025, driven by scale effects and efficient management [28][41] - The company maintains a higher gross margin compared to domestic competitors, with a sales gross margin of 29.7% and a net profit margin of 13.3% [41][44] Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing electrification and automation trends in the material handling industry, with expected growth in both domestic and international markets [4][48] - The strategic focus on intelligent logistics solutions and the development of autonomous handling equipment is anticipated to further enhance growth opportunities [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Suzhou Keda (603660) [1] Core Views - The company is seizing opportunities in AI and actively expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in line with the "Belt and Road" initiative [8] - The company has launched a series of public safety products powered by its self-developed "Kaidan Large Model," enhancing its smart security capabilities [8] - The company is also advancing its quantum-encrypted video conferencing products, catering to high-security communication needs [8] - Despite short-term pressure on earnings due to fluctuations in downstream customer demand, the company is expected to recover its performance with the support of AI, international expansion, and domestic production acceleration [8] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to decline from 1,816 million RMB in 2023 to 1,331 million RMB in 2024, before gradually increasing to 1,853 million RMB by 2027 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 7.79 million RMB, and further increasing to 108.07 million RMB by 2027 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be negative in 2023 and 2024, but is expected to reach 0.19 RMB by 2027 [1] - The report adjusts the EPS estimates for 2025-2026 down to 0.01 RMB and 0.07 RMB, respectively, while introducing a new estimate of 0.19 RMB for 2027 [8]

Economic Outlook - China's economy is expected to grow at 4.9% in 2026, with infrastructure investment accelerating and manufacturing investment maintaining at 6%[11] - CPI is projected to have a slight positive growth of 0.5%, while PPI's decline is expected to narrow to -0.9%[12] - Fiscal policy will remain expansionary, with an increase of 620 billion yuan in incremental funds compared to 2025[13] Asset Allocation - The overall preference for asset allocation is ranked as follows: stocks > commodities (industrial) > gold > currency > bonds[7] - 10-year bond yields are expected to fluctuate between 1.70%-2.0%, while 30-year yields are projected to be in the range of 1.90%-2.30%[32] - The RMB is anticipated to gradually appreciate, potentially reaching around 6.80 by the end of 2026, with annualized volatility maintained at 3.0%-4.0%[35] Stock Market Insights - A-shares are entering the next phase of an "innovation bull market," driven by inflation recovery and liquidity supporting valuation increases[3] - The overall A-share market has seen a 73.4% increase from February 2024 to November 2025, with valuation recovery being a significant driver[51] - A-share earnings are expected to rise significantly in 2026, supported by improved PPI and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies[52] Commodity Market Trends - Commodities like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from increased demand driven by AI and new energy sectors, indicating a long-term price increase[39] - The "green inflation" narrative is expected to continue, with supply constraints and demand from new economic sectors driving prices higher[43] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to stabilize commodity markets by addressing overcapacity in certain industries[41] Gold Market Outlook - Gold prices are projected to oscillate between $4,000-$4,200 per ounce through the end of 2025, with an upward trend expected in 2026 due to liquidity easing[50] - The historical bull market in gold has been supported by central bank purchases and a weakening of global sovereign currency credit[44]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,120 | 1,649 | 2,171 | 3,407 | 4,343 | | 同比(%) | 111.22 | 47.20 | 31.63 | 56.96 | 27.49 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (4,336.63) | (481.83) | (228.12) | 58.07 | 378.66 | | 同比(%) | (107.63) | 88.89 | 52.66 | 125.46 | 552.07 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (8.95) | (0.99) | (0.47) | 0.12 | 0.78 | | P/S（现价&最新摊薄） | 12.48 | 8.48 | 6.44 | 4.10 | 3.22 | [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 11 月 28 ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint discusses the recent "28-point" ceasefire agreement proposed by Trump, which requires Ukraine to abandon territorial claims over Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, crossing Ukraine's "strategic red line" [1][5][6] - The existing political system in Ukraine makes it difficult for many terms of the agreement to be implemented, and the neglect of Europe's strategic position creates uncertainty in future geopolitical situations [5][6] - The report suggests that the path to peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains long and complicated, with limited room for further declines in oil prices driven by news in the short term [5][6] Fixed Income Strategy - The credit bond market is expected to see both opportunities and risks in supply and demand, with three main strategies focusing on liquidity, the pace of economic recovery, and regulatory policy changes [2][7] - The report recommends a defensive strategy centered on short- to medium-term credit bonds, while selectively engaging in long-term bonds for potential trading opportunities [2][7] - The supply side of the city investment bond sector is expected to maintain a "zero tolerance" regulatory stance, with financing remaining tight but gradually improving as platforms transition to industrial entities [7][9] Company Analysis: Li Auto-W (02015.HK) - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 27.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 36.2%, and a net profit loss of 620 million yuan, indicating short-term pressure on performance [12][14] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 16.3%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased manufacturing costs from a recall [12][14] - The company is restructuring its management model to focus on user value and efficiency, aiming to build a complete AI system for its vehicles, with expectations for significant performance improvements in future chip designs [12][14]

Group 1: Key Points on the Ceasefire Agreement - The proposed "28-point" ceasefire agreement requires Ukraine to abandon territorial claims over Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, crossing Ukraine's "strategic red line" [1] - The agreement has been modified to "19 points" due to Ukraine's constitutional constraints and the need for further negotiations [1] - Key provisions include the recognition of Crimea and other territories as Russian, and a phased lifting of sanctions against Russia [1] Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - The agreement's failure to address core disputes means the path to peace remains long and uncertain, with potential for increased geopolitical friction [2] - Trump may escalate economic and military sanctions to pressure negotiations, potentially impacting market risk appetite [2] - The U.S. and Europe are expected to contribute $1 trillion for Ukraine's reconstruction, with the U.S. receiving 50% of profits from investments [1] Group 3: Market Impact - Oil prices may have limited downward movement despite recent negotiation news, as substantial breakthroughs towards a ceasefire are lacking [3] - Future negotiations may lead to increased volatility in oil and gold prices due to geopolitical tensions [3] - The market's reaction to news regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict may not meet expectations, posing additional risks [3]

Core Insights - The copper market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand, with prices projected to rise, reaching historical highs by the end of 2025, driven by financial factors and market sentiment rather than actual demand shortages [2][4][15] - Global refined copper demand in 2024 is anticipated to be dominated by China, accounting for 58% of total consumption, while the U.S. will contribute 6% [2][24] - China's copper demand is expected to grow steadily in 2025, with significant increases in the production of copper rods and tubes, while copper foil shows exceptional performance [3][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From January to August 2025, the global copper supply and demand remained in a tight balance, with an average monthly surplus of 0.8 thousand tons, despite high prices suppressing demand [2][19] - The refined copper consumption in 2025 is projected to increase, primarily driven by China, Japan, and Germany, while demand from Mexico and Finland is expected to decline [20][24] - The supply side is characterized by a slow increase in C1 costs and ongoing shortages in the mining sector, with refined copper production growth lagging behind that of copper concentrate [3][19] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The copper price is expected to experience fluctuations, with a projected average of $9,704 per ton in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [4][12] - The price movements in 2025 are influenced by traditional commodity attributes, with financial attributes showing a negative correlation, particularly as the U.S. dollar fluctuates [4][13][15] - The anticipated tight supply and steady demand are expected to keep copper prices on an upward trajectory, potentially reaching $10,500 per ton in 2026 [5][15] Investment Strategies - Investment opportunities are identified in upstream mining resources, particularly in companies with significant resource advantages, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [5] - Downstream processing companies with high barriers to entry are also recommended, including Hailiang Co., with a focus on those performing well in their respective sectors [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The company is shifting back to a startup management model, focusing on user value and efficiency, while developing a complete AI system for embodied intelligence [3] - Due to structural adjustments in vehicle models, revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with expected revenues of 113.4 billion, 138.1 billion, and 191.2 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -22%, +22%, and +39% [4] - The company's AI investments are increasing, leading to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.9 billion, 1.6 billion, and 6.4 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -90%, +86%, and +302% [4] Financial Projections - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 123.85 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 173.48% [4] - The diluted EPS for 2025 is expected to be 0.40 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 163.67 [4] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 is reported at 16.3%, with a vehicle sales gross margin of 15.5% [11]