证券研究报告·公司点评报告·化学制药 博瑞医药（688166） 定向增发点评与公司近况更新：募资 5 亿， 实控人全额认购，管线进展顺利，催化丰富 【勘误版】 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,180 | 1,283 | 1,295 | 1,490 | 1,762 | | 同比（%） | 15.94 | 8.74 | 0.95 | 15.11 | 18.21 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 202.47 | 189.17 | 261.90 | 302.94 | 433.39 | | 同比（%） | (15.51) | (6.57) | 38.45 | 15.67 | 43.06 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.62 | 0.72 | 1.03 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 107.15 | 114.68 | 82.83 | 71.61 | 50. ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·化学制药 博瑞医药（688166） 定向增发点评与公司近况更新：募资 5 亿， 实控人全额认购，管线进展顺利，催化丰富 【勘误版】 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,180 | 1,283 | 1,295 | 1,490 | 1,762 | | 同比（%） | 15.94 | 8.74 | 0.95 | 15.11 | 18.21 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 202.47 | 189.17 | 261.90 | 302.94 | 433.39 | | 同比（%） | (15.51) | (6.57) | 38.45 | 15.67 | 43.06 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.62 | 0.72 | 1.03 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 107.15 | 114.68 | 82.83 | 71.61 | 50. ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-05-12 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20250508：基于 38 个国家的比较：为何我国消费率偏低 我国居民可支配收入比重高于国际平均、消费倾向低于国际平均，是否说 明我国居民部门"有钱不愿花"？并非如此，由于个税和财产税主要影响 少数中高收入者，因此剔除中高收入者后，对大多数居民而言，我国跟其 他国家居民收入比重的国际比较结果可能是 61.3%VS66.3%，而非 60%VS58.2%。即中高收入者存在"有钱不花"、消费倾向低的现象，但 大多数居民仍然是有消费意愿但缺少消费能力，因此 2025 年 4 月政治局 会议指出"要提高中低收入群体收入"是很有必要的。 10、居民所得税 和财产税的税负轻并不一定有利于消费。我国居民税负和社保净收入"双 低"的格局，意味着二次分配环节没有充分发挥调节收入差距的作用，不 利于促进消费。我们发现，如果将居民个税和财产税的税负提高到跟 38 国平均水平一致，提高税负的同时提高转移支付水平，将增加的这部分税 收以转移支付的形式全部给予中低收入者，可以 ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20250512 关税博弈下的港股与美股——全球市场观察 系列 一是，考虑到宏观经济不确定性加大，美联储在 5 月 9 号选择继续"等 待"，议息会议态度整体偏"鹰"。美联储释放"观望+警惕滞胀" 的信号， 政策转向需等待更明确的通胀和就业数据，而关税政策的不确定性成为 关键变量，主要是基于以下三点：一是，鲍威尔指出当前美国经济仍旧 稳健。二是，特朗普关税政策远超预期，未来宏观不确定性加大。三是， 美联储首次明确警告"失业率上升和通胀上升的风险均已增加"，暗示经 济进入滞涨的风险加剧。因此今年以来，美国连续第三次暂停降息。 二是贸易谈判。一方面，英美确定达成首份关税协议，将英国汽车进口 到美国的额外 25%关税降至最高 10%。而这也释放出特朗普的"底线" 信号，即 10%的基准关税，这也是美国财政"降本增效"的确定性收入来 源；另一方面，中美将在瑞士会谈的消息，修复市场风偏。 5 月 7 日，国新办发布了一揽子金融政策，政策时点超预期，促进港股 强势反弹。而后港股主要以震荡为主，周末中美谈判、印巴冲突使得市 场短期风偏收紧。下周美国通胀数据、国内互联网巨头财报情况 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a potential decline in production, an increase in US gas prices, and lower year-on-year inventory levels, leading to a rise in European gas prices [1][6] - It emphasizes the ongoing adjustments in pricing mechanisms and the gradual recovery of demand, suggesting a favorable outlook for gas companies [6][59] Summary by Sections Price Tracking - As of May 9, 2025, US HH, European TTF, East Asia JKM, and China's LNG prices have increased by 4%, 3.9%, 1.7%, 0%, and 7.3% respectively, with prices at 0.8, 2.9, 2.9, 3.1, and 3.1 yuan per cubic meter [11][16] Supply and Demand Analysis - US natural gas production may decline as some energy companies reduce drilling rigs, with average total supply decreasing by 0.5% week-on-week to 1,099 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand fell by 1.8% to 950 billion cubic feet per day [18] - European gas consumption in May 2025 was 605 billion cubic meters, up 1.8% year-on-year, but inventory levels were down 13.6% year-on-year [23][30] Pricing Progress - Nationwide pricing adjustments are being implemented, with 61% of cities having initiated residential pricing reforms, leading to improved profitability and valuation recovery for city gas companies [43] Important Events - The report notes that tariffs on US LNG have increased to 140%, which has a limited impact due to the small share of US LNG in total imports [51][53] - The European Commission has voted to introduce more flexible natural gas storage filling targets to avoid supply shortages [56][58] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, highlighting key companies such as Xinao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [59] - It suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible operations, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xinao Holdings [59]

燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ 产量或下降美国气价提升，库存同比偏低欧 洲气价提升 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：经济增速不及预期、极端天气、国际局势变化、安全经营风险。 2025 年 05 月 12 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -14% -11% -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 2024/5/13 2024/9/10 2025/1/8 2025/5/8 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 《淡季到来、欧洲储库目标或放松， 全球气价回落》 2025-04-28 《关税引发经济衰退担忧美国气价大 跌，关税暂缓欧洲气价回升，国内气 价平稳》 2025-04-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪：产量或下降美国气价提升，库存同比偏低欧洲气价提升。截至 2025/05/09 ...

证券研究报告 光伏设备2024年报&2025一季报总结： 业绩阶段承压，静待行业复苏&看好龙头设备商穿越周期 首席证券分析师：周尔双 执业证书编号：S0600515110002 联系邮箱：zhouersh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：李文意 执业证书编号：S0600524080005 联系邮箱：liwenyi@dwzq.com.cn 2025年5月11日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 2024年&2025Q1各环节光伏设备公司业绩普遍承压 ◆ 图：2024年及2025Q1各环节光伏设备公司业绩情况 | | | | | | 2024年 | | | | | | 2025Q1 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 证券代码 | 公司名称 | 营收 | 营收同比 | 归母净利润 | 归母净利润 | 毛利率 | 净利率 | 营收 | 营收同比 | 归母净利润 | 归母净利润 | 毛利率 | 净利率 | | | | | （亿元） | （%） ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250512 继续围绕转债核心稀缺资产进行抢筹配置 2025 年 05 月 12 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《 4 月外贸数据和降准降息落地，债 券抢跑仍需消化》 2025-05-11 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20250505-20250509）》 2025-05-11 东吴证券研究所 1 / 21 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 上周（0505－0509）美债收益率长短端继续向上修复，期限利差维持在 大约 50bp 左右，我们认为一方面鲍威尔重审了联储对再通胀的担忧， 一方面美英之间达成贸易协议，前期我们认为广泛主要经济体将以拖待 变，目前我们认为或出现分化，部分国家将以美英协议为基准从而快速 同美达成共识，其余部分国家将不认可美英协议，并坚持在 WTO 多边 主义框架下同美对话，但无论如何 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 商贸零售行业跟踪周报 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张家璇 执业证书：S0600520120002 4 月我国出口额超预期，关注非美出口核心 标的小商品城 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 05 月 12 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阳靖 执业证书：S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王琳婧 执业证书：S0600123070017 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 30% 36% 42% 5/13/2024 9/10/2024 1/8/2025 5/8/2025 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究 《酒店集团业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The insurance industry is facing challenges due to low interest rates, necessitating a dual approach of managing both assets and liabilities to mitigate interest spread loss risks [11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of adjusting liability costs and product structures to reduce dependence on interest spreads, while also enhancing asset management strategies [12][23] Summary by Sections 1. Interest Spread Loss Risk Management - The core strategy to address interest spread loss is to manage both assets and liabilities simultaneously [11] - The report suggests that reducing rigid liability costs through lowering preset interest rates is crucial [12][13] 2. Liability Side: Focus on Cost Management - Continuous adjustments to preset interest rates are necessary to lower the overall liability costs [14][15] - The report indicates that the preset interest rates for traditional, dividend, and universal insurance products have been reduced to 2.5%, 2.0%, and 1.5% respectively by 2024 [16][17] - The implementation of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for preset interest rates linked to macroeconomic indicators is expected to further optimize liability costs [17] 3. Asset Side: Strengthening Duration Management - The report recommends adopting flexible duration strategies in the short term due to significant fluctuations in long-term interest rates [53] - Long-term strategies should focus on extending the duration of assets to match liabilities, as the current duration gap in the domestic insurance market is notably high [55] 4. Product Structure Adjustment - Increasing the proportion of non-guaranteed products like dividend and universal insurance can help mitigate the impact of interest spread losses [24][26] - The report highlights that the shift towards floating yield products is already underway, with floating yield products accounting for 51.7% of new premiums in Q1 2025 [31] 5. Implementation of "Report and Action Together" - The report discusses the implementation of the "Report and Action Together" policy, which has led to a significant reduction in commission rates by approximately 30% in the bancassurance channel [42][43] - This policy is expected to enhance the net business value (NBV) margin for insurance companies, contributing positively to their overall performance [43][44]