政策受益方向：新一代信息技术、人工智能、航空航天、新能源、新材料、高端装备、生 物医药、量子科技等新质生产力相关行业；制造业高端化、智能化和绿色化等新型工业化 方向；数字产业化和产业数字化等数字经济方向；生产性服务业高质量发展、产业互联 网、生活性服务业等；基础设施数字化改造、综合交通运输体系、通用航空和低空经济 等；集成电路、工业母机、医疗装备、仪器仪表、基础软件、工业软件、先进材料等重点 产业链。 2024 年 7 月 22 日 三中全会政策解读 | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 必选消费：强文化自信或引国风更盛。我们认为会议对必选消费板块带来的 | | 潜在影响可总结为"强文化自信或助国风更盛，挖内需潜力或赋能本土品 | | 牌"，我们从会议中提炼出了以下关键词： 1 ）激发文化创新活力，优化文 | 招银国际环球市场 | 策略报告 | 市场策略 中国策略 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Yancoal Australia with a target price of HK$45, indicating a potential upside of 23.1% from the current price of HK$36.55 [4][12]. Core Insights - Yancoal's 2Q24 sales volume increased by 1% year-on-year, with a total attributable sales volume of 8.6 million tonnes. The company remains confident in achieving its full-year sales volume target of 37.3 million tonnes [2][12]. - The average selling price (ASP) for thermal coal decreased by 17% year-on-year to A$163 per tonne, while metallurgical coal ASP dropped by 21% to A$318 per tonne. The blended ASP fell by 20% to A$181 per tonne [2][12]. - Yancoal's financial position is solid, with a gross cash balance of A$1.55 billion as of the end of June 2024, indicating a strong net cash position moving forward [2][12]. Sales Volume and Revenue - In 2Q24, attributable sales volume for thermal coal was 7.5 million tonnes, up 3% year-on-year, while metallurgical coal sales volume was 1 million tonnes, down 17% year-on-year. Total attributable sales volume for 1H24 grew 17% year-on-year to 16.8 million tonnes [2][6]. - The estimated revenue for 2Q24 was approximately A$1.5 billion, reflecting a 20% decrease year-on-year but a 3% increase quarter-on-quarter [2][14]. Financial Performance - The report projects a full-year revenue of A$7.133 billion for 2024, with a net profit forecast of A$1.477 billion, down from A$1.819 billion in 2023 [14][17]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at A$1.12, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.2x [14][17]. Cost and Production Guidance - Yancoal's operating cash cost is projected to be between A$89 and A$97 per tonne, reflecting a year-on-year change of -7% to +1% [2][12]. - The company maintains its full-year guidance for attributable saleable production at 35-39 million tonnes, which represents a year-on-year increase of 5% to 17% [2][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple companies, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in the next 12 months [2][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a basket of 26 long positions with an average return of -4.1%, compared to the MSCI China index return of -2.2% [8]. - Among the 26 long positions, 4 stocks recorded returns of 5% or more, and 11 outperformed the benchmark [8]. Summary by Company - **Li Auto (LI US)**: Buy rating, target price of 26.00, potential upside of 24%, FY24E P/E of 21.2 [2]. - **Geely Automobile (175 HK)**: Buy rating, target price of 14.00, potential upside of 70%, FY24E P/E of 11.7, dividend yield of 2.5% [2]. - **Zoomlion Heavy Industry (1157 HK)**: Buy rating, target price of 7.50, potential upside of 60%, FY24E P/E of 8.4 [2]. - **Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH)**: Buy rating, target price of 75.00, potential upside of 48%, FY24E P/E of 12.6, dividend yield of 1.9% [2]. - **Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)**: Buy rating, target price of 2219.00, potential upside of 50%, FY24E P/E of 23.1, dividend yield of 1.5% [2]. - **Tencent (700 HK)**: Buy rating, target price of 480.00, potential upside of 29%, FY24E P/E of 17.8 [2]. - **Alibaba (BABA US)**: Buy rating, target price of 124.90, potential upside of 59%, FY24E P/E of 19.4 [2]. - **Xiaomi Group (1810 HK)**: Buy rating, target price of 25.39, potential upside of 55%, FY24E P/E of 16.2 [2]. - **BYD Electronics (285 HK)**: Buy rating, target price of 45.15, potential upside of 28%, FY24E P/E of 14.0, dividend yield of 1.6% [2]. - **Northern Huachuang (002371 CH)**: Buy rating, target price of 405.00, potential upside of 15%, FY24E P/E of 32.2 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Ping An with a target price of HK$52.00, implying a potential upside of 52.5% from the current price of HK$34.10 [5][4]. Core Insights - The issuance of US$3.5 billion convertible bonds is expected to have a limited dilutive impact of approximately 3.43% on existing shares, with the initial conversion price set at HK$43.71, representing a premium of 21.2% over the closing price on July 15, 2024 [4][20]. - The potential use of proceeds from the convertible bonds is aimed at boosting the core solvency ratio of Ping An Life, which is projected to rise by 6.4 percentage points to 125.2% in 1Q24, assuming all proceeds are injected into the business [4][29]. - The stock is currently trading at FY24E 0.48x P/EV and 0.70x P/B, with an expected dividend yield of 8.0% and FY24E ROE at 13.2% [4][17]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, the net profit is estimated at RMB 154.021 billion, with an EPS of RMB 7.18, reflecting a growth trajectory from previous years [17][24]. - The core solvency ratio for Ping An Life was reported at 118.8% in 1Q24, which is above the industry average of 113.5% [4][29]. - The comprehensive solvency ratio for Ping An P&C is projected to be 199.1% in 1Q24, indicating strong financial health [9][4]. Share Capital and Structure - Following the full conversion of the bonds, the total number of H-shares will increase to approximately 8.07 billion, accounting for 42.9% of the enlarged share capital [4][20]. - The report also notes the cancellation of 102.6 million A-shares, which will partially offset the dilutive effect of the convertible bonds and increase the H-share proportion to 43.1% [4][20]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights a projected dividend yield of 8.0% for FY24E, with a consistent increase in dividend payouts expected over the next few years [17][35]. - The P/B ratio is expected to decrease to 0.63x by FY25E, indicating a potential undervaluation of the stock [40][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$52.00, implying a 52.5% upside from the current price of HK$34.10 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company announced the issuance of US$3.5 billion in convertible bonds (CB) with a conversion premium of 21.2%, which is expected to have a limited dilution effect of approximately 3.43% on existing shares [5][12][23]. - The financing is anticipated to support the core subsidiary, Ping An Life, with a relatively low cost of capital, enhancing its solvency ratios [5][15]. - The estimated core solvency ratio for Ping An Life is projected to increase by 6.4 percentage points to 125.2% following the capital injection from the CB issuance [5][26]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB 154.021 billion, with an EPS of RMB 7.18 [5][46]. - The dividend per share (DPS) is expected to be HK$2.53 for FY24E, reflecting a dividend yield of 8.0% [5][46]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.2% for FY24E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][46]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 0.48x for FY24E and a price-to-embedded value (P/EV) of 1.0x [2][46]. - The estimated net asset return rate is 13.2% for FY24E, which is favorable compared to industry averages [5][46]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a decline of 5.41% following the CB announcement, but this is viewed as a short-term fluctuation [2][6]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HK$620.961 billion, with a 52-week high of HK$56.25 and a low of HK$29.80 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu with a target price of $183.00 per ADS, indicating a potential upside of 96.5% from the current price of $93.15 [3][6]. Core Insights - Baidu's core business revenue growth for Q2 2024 is expected to meet the report's expectations but fall slightly short of broader market expectations due to proactive business adjustments and a soft macroeconomic environment affecting overall advertising budgets. However, these adjustments are anticipated to enhance user experience and long-term monetization prospects [2]. - The profitability of Baidu's cloud segment is expanding, driven by increased penetration of fully autonomous vehicles and the deployment of new car models, which may improve the unit economics of its Robotaxi business [2]. - The report estimates Baidu's core revenue for Q2 2024 at RMB 26.3 billion, flat year-over-year but 2.7% below Bloomberg's expectations, primarily due to advertising performance [2]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, Baidu's revenue is projected to be RMB 138.474 billion, reflecting a 2.9% year-over-year growth. Adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 27.667 billion, a decrease of 3.8% compared to FY23A [5][10]. - The report forecasts Baidu's cloud revenue to grow by 14% year-over-year in Q2 2024, up from 12% in Q1 2024 and 5% in Q2 2023, driven by AI-related cloud revenue growth [2][10]. - The report highlights that the penetration rate of fully autonomous vehicles in Baidu's Robotaxi service has increased significantly, with over 70% of rides in Wuhan being provided by fully autonomous vehicles as of April 2024 [2]. Valuation - The SOTP (Sum of the Parts) valuation for Baidu is maintained at $183.00 per ADS, based on a non-GAAP PE of 17.1x for FY24E, translating to 11.1x if net cash is excluded. The core business is valued at $69.2 per ADS, while the cloud segment is valued at $32.2 per ADS [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Baidu, with a target price of US$183.00 per ADS, indicating a potential upside of 96.5% from the current price of US$93.15 [2][3]. Core Insights - Baidu's core business is expected to deliver revenue growth in line with expectations, albeit slightly slower than market consensus for 2Q24, primarily due to proactive business adjustments to integrate more GenAI-related results in search, which are currently under-monetized [2]. - The cloud segment is on a profitability expansion track, and the increasing penetration of fully driverless cars is anticipated to improve unit economics for the Robotaxi business [2]. - The proactive adjustments in the core business are expected to enhance user experience and long-term monetization prospects, despite a soft macroeconomic environment affecting overall advertising budgets [2]. Financial Forecast - For 2Q24, Baidu Core is estimated to have booked revenue of RMB26.3 billion, flat year-over-year but 2.7% lower than Bloomberg consensus, mainly due to advertising performance [2]. - The forecast for Baidu Core's advertising revenue is RMB19.0 billion, down 3.0% year-over-year, influenced by the integration of GenAI-related search results, softer economic growth, and intense industry competition [2]. - Non-GAAP operating profit for Baidu Core is expected to be RMB6.5 billion in 2Q24, translating to a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 24.7% [2]. Segment Performance - Baidu Cloud revenue is projected to grow by 14% year-over-year in 2Q24, up from 12% in 1Q24 and 5% in 2Q23, driven by the ramp-up of AI-related cloud revenue [2]. - The rides provided by fully driverless vehicles accounted for over 70% of the total for Robotaxi in April 2024, a significant increase from previous quarters, with expectations to reach 100% in the near future [2]. - The new-generation car RT6 is priced at RMB204.6k, significantly lower than the RT5, which is expected to reduce hardware depreciation costs post-deployment [2]. Valuation - The SOTP-based target price of US$183.0 per ADS translates into 17.1x 2024E PE on a non-GAAP basis, or 11.1x if excluding net cash [7]. - The valuation breakdown includes US$69.2 for Baidu Core, US$1.8 for Apollo ASD, US$32.2 for Baidu Cloud, US$64.6 of net cash, and US$15.2 for iQIYI and other investments [7].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of Minth Group with a BUY rating and a target price of HK$21.00, indicating a potential upside of 70.2% from the current price of HK$12.34 [2][4][51]. Core Insights - Minth Group is transitioning from a manufacturer of exterior decorative parts to a diversified tier-1 supplier with capabilities in various materials, positioning it well against trade risks due to its solid overseas foundation [2][15][17]. - The company’s overseas operations contributed approximately 10% to its total net profit in FY23, with expectations for overseas net profit to double by FY26E [2][21]. - The battery housing segment is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenue increases of 60% in FY24, 35% in FY25, and 30% in FY26, driven by the global EV market expansion [2][33][36]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1992, Minth Group has evolved into a diversified tier-1 supplier with multi-material manufacturing capabilities, generating 51% of its revenue from China, 24% from North America, and 20% from Europe in FY23 [15][16]. - The battery housing business, initiated in 2019, accounted for 17% of total revenue in FY23, with significant growth potential in related chassis structural parts [15][23]. Investment Thesis - Minth's extensive overseas experience provides a competitive edge in navigating trade risks, with profitable operations in Mexico and Serbia [17][18]. - The company is well-positioned to supply Chinese OEMs for local production in Europe, helping them bypass tariffs imposed on EVs produced in China [19][21]. Financial Analysis - Revenue is projected to grow by 19% in FY24, 15% in FY25, and 13% in FY26, with net profit expected to increase by 18%, 14%, and 13% respectively during the same period [41][46]. - The gross margin is anticipated to be around 27.2% in FY24, slightly declining due to the rising contribution from the battery housing segment [42][49]. Valuation - The target price of HK$21.00 is based on a 10x FY24E P/E, reflecting a historical average and the current low valuation of the stock [51][52].

招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 宏观经济 中国经济 - 中国更需要需求侧刺激 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|---------------|-------------| | 环球主要股市上日表现 | 收市价 | 升跌（ \n单日 | % ） \n年内 | | 恒生指数 | 18,016 | -1.52 | 5.68 | | 恒生国企 | 6,422 | -1.70 | 11.32 | | 恒生科技 | 3,673 | -2.90 | -2.44 | | 上证综指 | 2,974 | 0.09 | -0.03 | | 深证综指 | 1,604 | -0.83 | -12.72 | | 深圳创业板 | 1,673 | -0.63 | -11.55 | | | | | | | 美国道琼斯 | 40,212 | 0.53 | 6.69 | | 美国标普 500 | 5,631 | 0.28 | 18.06 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 18,473 | 0.40 | 23.06 | | 德国 DAX | 18,591 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent with a target price of HKD 480.0, representing a potential upside of 20.9% from the current price of HKD 397.00 [3][7][12]. Core Insights - Tencent is expected to achieve stable revenue and profit growth, supported by a recovery in its gaming business and robust advertising performance. For Q2 2024, revenue is projected to grow by 8% year-on-year to RMB 160.9 billion, with non-IFRS net income expected to rise by 33% to RMB 49.2 billion [3][4][5]. - The strong performance of DnF Mobile is anticipated to drive gaming revenue growth, with a forecasted 7% increase in gaming revenue for Q2 2024, reaching RMB 47.7 billion. The game has ranked among the top two in China's iOS revenue charts since its launch [4][5]. - Advertising revenue is expected to grow by 18% year-on-year to RMB 29.4 billion in Q2 2024, primarily due to strong performance in WeChat advertising [4][5]. Financial Projections - For FY24E, total revenue is projected at RMB 658.3 billion, with a gross profit margin of 53.1%. Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 198.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.1% [6][10]. - The report outlines a steady increase in gross profit margin, expected to rise to 53.4% in Q2 2024, driven by higher-margin revenue streams [5][10]. Valuation Breakdown - The target price of HKD 480.0 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, which includes: 1. Online gaming business valued at HKD 186.4 based on a 19x PE for FY24E. 2. SNS business valued at HKD 32.5, including Tencent's stakes in subsidiaries. 3. Advertising business valued at HKD 85.8 based on an 18x PE. 4. Fintech business valued at HKD 79.7 based on a 4.0x PS. 5. Cloud business valued at HKD 20.8 based on a 4.0x PS [12][14][15].