M N 27 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Weichai Power (000338 CH) Key takeaways from post-results call Target Price RMB20.40 During the post-results call yesterday, Weichai expected the industry HDT (Previous TP RMB20.40) demand in 2024E will be ~900k units (-2% YoY). Of this, China demand is Up/Downside 23.6% expected to fall by 10% YoY to 600k units while exports are expected to grow Current Price RMB16.51 20% YoY to 300k units. Weichai expects the LNG price to ...

M N 27 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Weichai Power (000338 CH) Key takeaways from post-results call Target Price RMB20.40 During the post-results call yesterday, Weichai expected the industry HDT (Previous TP RMB20.40) demand in 2024E will be ~900k units (-2% YoY). Of this, China demand is Up/Downside 23.6% expected to fall by 10% YoY to 600k units while exports are expected to grow Current Price RMB16.51 20% YoY to 300k units. Weichai expects the LNG price to ...

M N 26 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Weichai Power (000338 CH) 4Q23 net profit +58% YoY; Payout increased to 50%; Higher earnings forecast on margin Target Price RMB20.40 Weichai’s net profit in 2023 surged 84% YoY to RMB9bn, which is in line with (Previous TP RMB17.80) the profit range of RMB8.58-9.32bn announced in Jan. In 4Q23, net profit grew Up/Downside 25.4% 58% YoY to RMB2.5bn. It’s worth noting that Weichai has declared a final Current Price RMB16.27 di ...

+M N 26 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) Resilient margin in 2H23 with positive outlook Target Price HK$8.39 Maintain BUY and raise TP to HK$8.39 (we now assume a gradual improvement in SSS recovery rate onwards as the group is rolling out more new initiatives (Previous TP HK$7.05) this year). We are still cautious about catering sector, but JMJ’s numbers have Up/Downside 49.9% stabilized lately. A rebound in share price is possible given undem ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Weichai Power, with a revised target price of RMB20.40, up from RMB17.80, indicating a potential upside of 25.4% from the current price of RMB16.27 [2][3]. Core Insights - Weichai Power's net profit for 2023 increased by 84% year-on-year to RMB9 billion, aligning with earlier profit forecasts [2]. - The company declared a final dividend of RMB0.293 per share, raising the payout ratio to 50%, up from 45% in 2022 [2]. - The positive outlook is supported by factors such as the replacement cycle, increased sales of gas trucks, and export growth, which are expected to drive sales growth in the heavy-duty truck (HDT) industry in 2024 [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 4Q23, Weichai's net profit rose 58% year-on-year to RMB2.5 billion, driven by a 20% increase in revenue to RMB53.6 billion and a gross margin expansion of 3.3 percentage points to 23.7%, the highest since 4Q18 [2][6]. - The engine segment saw a revenue increase of 55% year-on-year to RMB60.8 billion, with segment profit surging 1.7 times to RMB7.7 billion due to a 5.5 percentage point margin expansion [2][3]. - The automobiles and components segment turned profitable in the second half of 2023, recording a profit of RMB610 million compared to losses in previous periods [2]. - The forklift and supply chain solutions segment reported a tenfold increase in profit to RMB4.9 billion in 2023, reflecting a recovery [2][3]. - Agricultural machinery revenue decreased by 9% year-on-year to RMB16.2 billion, but the segment margin improved by 1 percentage point to 4.1%, resulting in a 23% increase in segment profit [2]. Earnings Forecast - The report revises the earnings forecast for 2024 and 2025 upwards by 19% and 20%, respectively, primarily due to higher margin assumptions across various segments [2][3]. - Revenue projections for 2024E and 2025E are set at RMB236.3 billion and RMB250.1 billion, respectively, with expected adjusted net profits of RMB12.1 billion and RMB13.1 billion [3][18]. Valuation - The SOTP-based target price for Weichai Power is set at HK$22/RMB20.4, reflecting a valuation methodology based on EV/EBITDA multiples [10]. - The report highlights that Weichai's core business is valued at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.5, contributing significantly to the overall equity value [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for FIT Hon Teng with a target price (TP) raised to HK$2.42, reflecting a 19.3% upside from the current price of HK$2.03 [5][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights opportunities in the US$1.7 billion server connector and cable market, driven by increased demand for next-generation high-speed connectivity in AI servers for FY24/25E [2][3]. - Management expects a 15-20% year-over-year growth in the networking/server segment for FY24E, with AI server-related revenue projected to reach 8-10% of FY24E sales, up from 1% in FY23 [2][3]. - The report anticipates FIT's net profit to grow by 55% and 27% year-over-year in FY24 and FY25, respectively, supported by the ramp-up of AI server connectivity products and consolidation of the Voltaira auto business [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to increase from US$4.196 billion in FY23 to US$4.715 billion in FY24, representing a 12.4% year-over-year growth [18][22]. - Net profit is expected to rise from US$170.3 million in FY23 to US$200 million in FY24, reflecting a 55.4% increase [18][22]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 2.42 US cents in FY23 to 2.83 US cents in FY24 [18][22]. Market Position - FIT Hon Teng is positioned as a global leader in the server connector market, alongside competitors such as Amphenol, TEL, and Molex [2][3]. - The company is expected to capture a 20-30% market share in the global server connector and cable market, aiming for US$500 million in sales by FY25E [2][3]. Valuation Metrics - The report notes that FIT is trading at 9.2x/7.2x FY24/25 P/E, which is attractive compared to the historical average of 15x [3][19]. - The new target price of HK$2.42 is based on an 11x FY24E P/E, reflecting a 33% discount to the 5-year historical average [19].

M N 25 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) Anticipating sustained profitability  Profit turnaround driven by core business operations. Henliu’s FY23 revenue Target Price HK$18.67 increased 67.8% YoY to RMB5.40bn, driven by strong sales of HANQUYOU (Previous TP HK$18.67) (trastuzumab biosimilar) and serplulimab (PD-1). HANQUYOU recorded Up/Downside 31.8% RMB2.74bn revenue in FY23, +58% YoY. We think HANQUYOU may be free from Current Price HK ...

M N 25 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update AAC Tech (2018 HK) Solid outlook for PSS merger & optics margin recovery; Maintain HOLD on fair valuation Target Price HK$22.44 AAC reported FY23 revenue of RMB20.4bn (-1.0% YoY) and net income of RMB740mn (-9.9% YoY), above consensus estimates mainly due to exchange (Previous TP HK$14.04) gains and other income. FY23 GPM came in at 16.9%, largely in line, and 2H23 Up/Downside (10.2%) GPM recovered to 19.2% (+1.4ppts YoY/+5. ...

M N 25 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Baozun (BZUN US) GAP revitalization making good progress Target Price US$4.93 Baozun delivered mixed 4Q23 results with in-line revenue (+9% YoY) but soft (Previous TP US$6.90) bottom line. For 1Q24E, we expect a low-single-digit YoY decline in revenue, with Up/Downside 113.0% a net loss position, for slower BEC (Baozun E-commerce) recovery with soft Current Price US$2.30 consumption sentiment. Despite that, BBM (Baozun Brand ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Greentown Management with a target price of HK$ 9.37, reflecting a 13x 2024E PE [2][4]. Core Insights - Greentown Management achieved a net profit growth of +31% YoY in FY23, with a maintained dividend payout ratio of 100%, resulting in an 8% dividend yield [2][5]. - The company is expected to guide industry-leading growth with a revenue CAGR of +20% and net profit CAGR of +25% over the next three years, potentially outperforming the broader property market [2][8]. - The company's adaptability in business restructuring has been highlighted as a key factor in its strong performance despite a sluggish property market [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - FY23 results showed revenue of RMB 3,302 million, a 24.3% increase YoY, and attributable net profit of RMB 974 million, up 31% YoY [3][5]. - Gross profit margin remained stable at 52%, with a slight decrease in commercial project management (PJM) margin to 52% and an improvement in government PJM margin to 45% [5][12]. - The company reported a net margin of 29.5% in FY23, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase from the previous year [5][12]. Future Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 4,048 million in FY24, with a YoY growth of 22.6%, and net profit is expected to be RMB 1,250.9 million, reflecting a 28.5% increase [3][7]. - The company has a billable contract value of RMB 25 billion, with an expected annual increase of approximately RMB 10 billion [2][8]. - The forecast for net profit in FY26 is RMB 1,897.3 million, indicating a continued growth trajectory [3][12]. Market Position and Strategy - Greentown Management has expanded its business into non-residential projects, which accounted for 15% of new contracts in FY23, in response to a contracting residential market [2][8]. - The company has successfully maintained its market share in the property management sector, with newly contracted gross floor area (GFA) increasing to 35.3 million square meters in FY23 [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the company's asset-light model and high cash flow as significant advantages in the current market environment [2][8].