证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 2024年06月10日 航运供需紧张，运价持续上行验证景气 看好 ——2024 年 6 月 3 日-6 月 9 日交通运输行业周报 （维持） 投资要点： 证券分析师 一、行业动态跟踪 孙延 S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com ➢ 航运： 1）新加坡港口大堵船，集装箱航运价格上涨。受红海绕行带来的延误以及近期集装箱吞 王惠武 吐量激增等因素影响，全球部分港口堵港严重，包括新加坡、上海、青岛、巴生港与科伦 S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 坡等众多亚洲港口。其中新加坡港口尤为拥挤，最高等待靠泊的集装箱数量达 48.06 万个 板块表现： 标准集装箱。港口拥堵导致航运价格再度上涨，截至 5 月 30 日，亚洲到欧洲航线、北美 西海岸的运费已分别攀升至每40英尺集装箱6200美元和6100美元。 2）各大航司宣布6月中旬GRI，旺季附加费PSS上涨。根据德迅报道，地中海和亚洲港 口的拥堵导致准班率持续恶化，并引发了对集装箱运力供给的进一步担忧，除非红海危机 结束或需求放缓，否则拥堵和延 ...

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 2024年06月10日 航运供需紧张，运价持续上行验证景气 看好 ——2024 年 6 月 3 日-6 月 9 日交通运输行业周报 （维持） 投资要点： 证券分析师 一、行业动态跟踪 孙延 S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com ➢ 航运： 1）新加坡港口大堵船，集装箱航运价格上涨。受红海绕行带来的延误以及近期集装箱吞 王惠武 吐量激增等因素影响，全球部分港口堵港严重，包括新加坡、上海、青岛、巴生港与科伦 S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 坡等众多亚洲港口。其中新加坡港口尤为拥挤，最高等待靠泊的集装箱数量达 48.06 万个 板块表现： 标准集装箱。港口拥堵导致航运价格再度上涨，截至 5 月 30 日，亚洲到欧洲航线、北美 西海岸的运费已分别攀升至每40英尺集装箱6200美元和6100美元。 2）各大航司宣布6月中旬GRI，旺季附加费PSS上涨。根据德迅报道，地中海和亚洲港 口的拥堵导致准班率持续恶化，并引发了对集装箱运力供给的进一步担忧，除非红海危机 结束或需求放缓，否则拥堵和延 ...

证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业定期报告 2024年6月10日 锂稀土震荡走弱，关注软磁和铜合金材料的主题机会 看好 （维持） ——有色金属 能源金属＆新材料周报（24/6/3-24/6/10） 投资要点： 证券分析师 田源 ➢ 能源金属方面，价格整体呈震荡运行趋势，电解钴止跌拉涨。锂：碳酸锂价格下跌4.46%至101175元/吨， S1350524030001 氢氧化锂价格下跌 3.36%至90600元/吨，近期市场偏弱震荡运行。供给端，碳酸锂产量稳步攀升；需求 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 端，当下补库行情或已接近尾声，碳酸锂采买观望情绪抬升，现货市场成交较为清淡，后续关注下游企业对 田庆争 S1350524050001 锂盐企业售价接受度的变动以及电池厂排产变化。建议关注：天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、中矿资源、永兴材料。 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 ➢ 钴：本周海外 MB 钴价下跌1.18%至12.55 美元/磅，国内电钴价格下跌1.78%至22.10万元/吨，价格 S1350524040002 跳涨后近期小幅震荡。供给方面，部分企业产量爬 ...

证券研究报告 建筑行业 首次覆盖报告 2024年06月07日 中国核建 (601611.SH) 买入 核电景气铸就三张表拐点，历史性布局机会已临 （首次覆盖） —— 投资要点： 证券分析师 ➢ 我国核建龙头企业，赛道景气铸就三张表拐点。公司核心业务为核电工程建设，是全 刘晓宁 球唯一一家连续30余年不间断从事核电建造的企业，代表着我国核电工程建造的最 S1350523120003 高水平。目前公司承建了国内已建和在建的绝大多数核电机组和核岛工程建设。2018 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 年末，得益于我国核电重启核准，公司核心主业迎来景气拐点，2021-2023年，公 司核电工程业务年营收增速分别为15.03%、39.99%、42.86%，随着高毛利率、优 联系人 现金流的核电工程业务占比快速提升，公司三张表呈现基本面拐点，有望带来戴维斯 刘晓宁 双击机会。 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com ➢ 核电进入历史性景气通道，工程建设高峰将至，景气周期有望超预期。碳中和背景下 我国电力结构开始重塑，核电定位为新型电力系统中的基荷能源， ...

证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 行业点评 2024年06月06日 新能源高质量发展成重点 关注消纳产业链机会 看好 ——新能源消纳及新能源高质量发展政策点评 （维持） 投资要点： 证券分析师 ➢ 事件：2024年6月4日，国家能源局印发《关于做好新能源消纳工作 保障新能源高质量发 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 展的通知》，对于新形势下新能源消纳、发展等问题做出了统筹规划，具体分析如下： liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com ➢ 电网是解决消纳的核心环节之一，后续建设会更显长期性和规划性。文件提出要优化新能源外 联系人 送配套电网项目的管理流程，500 千伏及以上由国家能源局统一组织，500 千伏以下由省级 刘晓宁 能源主管电网组织。此外要加快项目的前期、核准和建设工作，同时与发电企业统筹建设时序， S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 对于不匹配的项目允许发电企业先行建设并在后期由电网依法回购，后续电网的建设速度有望 加快。此外今年还计划开工陕北—安徽、蒙西—京津冀、甘肃—浙江等 3 条特高压直流，以 板块表现： 及阿坝—成都东和大同 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 首次覆盖报告 2024年06月04日 大唐新能源 (1798.HK) 买入 ——老牌绿电龙头 股价处于深度价值区间 （首次覆盖） 投资要点： 证券分析师 ➢ 大唐集团旗下新能源旗舰平台，国内老牌绿电龙头运营商。公司为大唐集团旗下 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 核心绿电平台，当前集团持有公司 65.61%股权，并承诺大唐新能源拥有集团境 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 内新能源业务的优先选择权与购买权。公司前身为大唐赤峰赛罕坝风力发电有限 研究支持 公司，国内最早从事新能源开发的电力企业之一。截至2023年底，公司控股装 机1542万千瓦，其中风电1298万千瓦、光伏244万千瓦。公司当前新能源装 联系人 机规模位居A+H股上市公司第七位，风电资产集中于三北地区，占比超过80%。 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 ➢ 占据三北老旧风场，风资源极为优质但早期机组存在性能症结。从历史发展看， liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 公司早期着力耕耘三北风资源优异地区，在当下优质风场稀缺情况下资源禀赋凸 市场表现： 显。但从风机效率 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [2][4][58]. Core Insights - The company is a leading platform-based high-end manufacturing enterprise, benefiting from the recovery in consumer electronics driven by AI applications, and is expected to maintain strong growth in its electric vehicle and new intelligent product segments [5][58]. - The company has achieved a revenue CAGR of 23.2% and a net profit CAGR of 20.1% from 2013 to 2023, showcasing its high-quality growth [2][12]. - The acquisition of Jabil (Singapore) is expected to contribute positively to profit growth and expand the company's market presence in consumer electronics [22][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a subsidiary of BYD, established in 1995 and listed in Hong Kong in 2007, focusing on electronic product design, manufacturing, and sales [12][13]. - It has diversified operations across various sectors, including smartphones, new energy vehicles, and smart home products, with a strong emphasis on high-quality manufacturing [12][16]. 2. Consumer Electronics Business - The consumer electronics segment accounted for 75% of total revenue in 2023, with a focus on high-end products and partnerships with major clients [2][17]. - The segment is expected to benefit from the recovery in demand driven by AI applications, with projected revenue growth of 10% annually from 2024 to 2026 [4][51]. 3. New Energy Vehicles - The company's new energy vehicle business is supported by BYD's strong market position and is projected to grow at a rate of 25% annually from 2024 to 2026 [4][51]. - The increasing penetration of electric vehicles in China is expected to drive significant growth in this segment [47][50]. 4. AI Server Market - The company is actively investing in AI server development, aiming to tap into the growing demand for AI capabilities and has established a partnership with NVIDIA [3][43]. - The global AI server market is expected to grow significantly, with the company positioned to benefit from this trend [40][41]. 5. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 50.66 billion, 63.29 billion, and 75.93 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][58]. - The average PE ratio for comparable companies is projected at 20X, while the company’s PE for 2024 is estimated at 14X, indicating potential undervaluation [4][58].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on FURUI with a "Buy" rating, citing strong growth potential driven by FibroScan GO and the company's leadership in non-invasive liver disease diagnostics [8][11][20] Core Investment Thesis - FURUI is a global leader in non-invasive liver disease diagnostics, with its flagship product FibroScan being the first clinically validated device for liver stiffness measurement, widely used worldwide with over 10 million annual diagnoses [7][60] - The recent FDA approval of the first NASH drug (Resmetirom) and multiple late-stage NASH drug candidates are expected to drive rapid growth in NASH screening demand, benefiting FibroScan [7][26] - FibroScan GO's pay-per-use model has shown promising traction with 275 units installed in Europe and the US by end-2023, expected to accelerate further [7][31] - The company's patented VCTE technology and continuous algorithm improvements based on 20+ years of clinical data create strong competitive advantages [58] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1.154 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.835 billion in 2026, representing a 33.6%/34.4%/36.8% YoY growth [12][15] - Net income is forecasted to increase from RMB 102 million in 2023 to RMB 453 million in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 101%/53%/45% [8][12] - Gross margin is expected to expand from 74.7% in 2023 to 87.4% in 2026, driven by higher-margin instrument sales [12][17] Business Segments Instruments - Instrument revenue is projected to grow at 40%/42%/44% from 2024-2026, driven by FibroScan sales and GO's pay-per-use model [16][24] - FibroScan has been recommended by over 180 international guidelines and cited in 4,200+ peer-reviewed publications, solidifying its academic leadership [7][58] Pharmaceuticals - The core drug Fufang Biejia Ruangan Pian saw a 23% sales decline in 2023 to 140 million tablets, but recovery is expected with increased academic promotion [7][35] - Pharmaceutical revenue is forecasted to grow at 17%/9%/7% from 2024-2026 [16][24] Medical Services - Medical services revenue is expected to maintain steady 15% annual growth from 2024-2026 [16][24] Industry Context - NAFLD has become the most common chronic liver disease globally, with a prevalence of 25%, of which 20% may progress to NASH [7][89] - The global NASH patient population is projected to grow from 350 million in 2020 to 490 million by 2030 [89] - Multiple NASH drugs are in late-stage clinical trials, including GLP-1 drugs like semaglutide, which could further drive diagnostic demand [27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (Overweight) for non-ferrous metals, energy metals, and new materials [3][60]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook for cobalt, nickel, and manganese, with specific recommendations for companies such as Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Huayou Cobalt [4][5]. - The energy metals market is experiencing price fluctuations, with lithium prices showing a downward trend while cobalt prices have seen a recent spike due to market sentiment [4][25]. - New materials, particularly soft magnetic and copper alloy materials, are expected to benefit from trends in the electronics and power sectors, with recommendations for companies like Placo New Materials and Yuelan New Materials [5][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report discusses the government's initiatives to promote energy-saving and carbon reduction, including the elimination of old vehicles and the promotion of electric vehicles [9]. - It emphasizes the need for optimizing the capacity layout of non-ferrous metals and controlling the production of aluminum and copper [9]. 2. Energy Metals - Lithium prices have decreased, with carbonate lithium at 105,900 CNY/ton, down 0.56%, and hydroxide lithium at 93,750 CNY/ton, down 2.80% [17][19]. - Cobalt prices have also dropped, with overseas MB cobalt at 12.7 USD/pound, down 2.12%, and domestic cobalt at 225,000 CNY/ton, down 5.46% [25]. - Nickel and manganese prices are showing strength, with sulfuric manganese up 6.84% to 0.63 CNY/ton and sulfuric nickel up 3.91% to 3.33 CNY/ton [31][34]. 3. New Materials - The report maintains a positive outlook on soft magnetic and copper alloy materials, driven by demand in the electronics and power sectors [5][42]. - Prices for key new materials include lithium iron phosphate at 1.06 CNY/ton and precursor 622 at 8.40 CNY/ton, with the latter showing a 3.7% increase [42][43]. - The solar material sector is also highlighted, with silver paste prices rising to 8,097 CNY/kg, reflecting a 2.36% increase [49].

证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 行业定期报告 2024年06月02日 降碳方案强化需求侧指标 静待细节政策落地 看好 —— 公用事业 2024 年第 22 周周报（24/05/27-24/05/31） （维持） 投资要点： 证券分析师 ➢ 推荐低协方差资产组合：长江电力、华能水电、国投电力、川投能源、中国核电、中国广核。 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 同时推荐上海电力、黔源电力、湖北能源。上海电力为国电投华东区域旗舰，煤电资产聚焦长三角与土耳 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 其，享受华东区域电价韧性与沿海电厂高煤价弹性，拥有长三角6台百万煤电机组成长。湖北能源低估值 享受协方差扩散行情、基本面及公司治理有显著边际变化。黔源电力为水电板块的估值洼地，从现金流与 联系人 净利润的比例角度看优于龙头水电，央企市值推动治理改善。 刘晓宁 电力设备推荐东方电气、理工能科。我国用电负荷增速有望保持较高水平，对常规电源需求呈现刚性，抽 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蓄、核电大发展支撑业绩，东方电气显著受益；理工能科现金流及股东回报力度 ...