证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业定期报告 2024年5月12日 能源金属震荡运行，软磁和铜合金材料持续景气 看好 （维持） ——有色金属 能源金属＆新材料周报（24/5/6-24/5/12） 投资要点： 证券分析师 田源 ➢ 能源金属方面，价格整体呈震荡运行趋势，短期镍和稀土表现偏强。锂：本周碳酸锂价格下跌 0.58%至 S1350524030001 111100元/吨，氢氧化锂价格下跌0.35%至100050元/吨，近期市场震偏弱荡运行。需求端，多数正极厂 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 于前期价格较低时期已经进行散单采备库，当下补库行情或已接近尾声，综合看碳酸锂采买观望情绪抬升， 田庆争 S1350124040045 现货市场成交较为清淡，后续关注下游企业对锂盐企业售价接受度的变动需求。建议关注：天齐锂业、赣锋 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 锂业、中矿资源、永兴材料。 项祈瑞 S1350524040002 ➢ 钴：本周海外 MB 钴价下跌1.15%至12.93 美元/磅，国内电钴价格下跌5.09%至20.50万元/吨，近期 xiangqirui@ ...

证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 首次覆盖报告 2024年5月12日 国电电力 (600795.SH) 增持 ——火水风光协同发展的综合性平台 业绩稳健去周期化 （首次覆盖） 投资要点： 证券分析师  国家能源集团核心电力平台，火水风光协同发展。公司为国家能源集团旗下综合性能源平台， 刘晓宁 国家能源集团由原神华集团（国内最大的煤炭企业）以及原国电集团（五大发电集团之一）于 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 2017年重整而来，拥有煤电一体化背景。公司作为集团旗下核心电力上市平台，明确打造集 团公司“常规电力能源转型排头兵，新能源发展主力军，世界一流企业建设引领者”，火水风 联系人 光协同发展。截至2023年底，公司拥有控股装机10564万千瓦，其中火电、水电、风电、 刘晓宁 光伏分别为7279、1495、929、860万千瓦。 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com  整体来看，我们分析公司最核心的优势是多板块业绩互补，提供业绩更高的稳定性，尤其是大 渡河水电的现金流价值和准煤电一体化带来的成本优势，赋予公 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 首次覆盖报告 2024年5月12日 国电电力 (600795.SH) 增持 ——火水风光协同发展的综合性平台 业绩稳健去周期化 （首次覆盖） 投资要点： 证券分析师  国家能源集团核心电力平台，火水风光协同发展。公司为国家能源集团旗下综合性能源平台， 刘晓宁 国家能源集团由原神华集团（国内最大的煤炭企业）以及原国电集团（五大发电集团之一）于 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 2017年重整而来，拥有煤电一体化背景。公司作为集团旗下核心电力上市平台，明确打造集 团公司“常规电力能源转型排头兵，新能源发展主力军，世界一流企业建设引领者”，火水风 联系人 光协同发展。截至2023年底，公司拥有控股装机10564万千瓦，其中火电、水电、风电、 刘晓宁 光伏分别为7279、1495、929、860万千瓦。 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com  整体来看，我们分析公司最核心的优势是多板块业绩互补，提供业绩更高的稳定性，尤其是大 渡河水电的现金流价值和准煤电一体化带来的成本优势，赋予公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its future performance [2][6]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a core supplier of high-end energy equipment, benefiting from the energy transition and the increasing demand for reliable power supply [2][3]. - The company has diversified its operations across various energy sectors, including hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power, wind power, solar energy, and hydrogen energy, establishing a robust foundation for future growth [3][14]. - The report highlights the importance of traditional power sources in ensuring energy security, especially as the share of renewable energy increases, leading to new challenges in peak load supply [22][23]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a key player in the global energy equipment sector, supplying over one-third of China's power generation equipment and has a strong competitive position in the market [3][14]. - It has a history of over 60 years in the energy sector, evolving from hydropower to a diversified portfolio that includes various energy sources [14][15]. Market Dynamics - The increasing share of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, has created challenges in maintaining peak load supply, necessitating a greater reliance on traditional power sources [22][23]. - The report emphasizes that the transition to a new energy system will require a balance between capacity support and energy supply, with traditional sources playing a crucial role [25][26]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 55.364 billion yuan in 2022 and 60.677 billion yuan in 2023, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.78% and 9.6%, respectively [3][15]. - The net profit for the same years was 2.858 billion yuan and 3.550 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 24.85% and 24.23% [3][15]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.17 billion yuan, 4.99 billion yuan, and 5.69 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with growth rates of 17.6%, 19.5%, and 14.1% respectively [4][6]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 13, 11, and 9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [4][6].

证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业专题报告 2024年5月9日 经济复苏+降息周期共振，铜铝贵金属业绩优异，小金属新材料表现亮眼 看好 （维持） ——有色金属行业 23 年报＆24年一季报综述 投资要点： 证券分析师 田源 ➢ 综述：在经济复苏+降息周期共振背景下，基本金属、贵金属、部分小金属价格中枢持续抬升，推动相关企 S1350524030001 业业绩增长；受供需格局和库存压力等因素，能源金属价格调整明显，相关企业业绩阶段性承压；新材料企 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 业经营业绩分化，软磁材料、铜合金材料、电子材料结构性机会凸显。我们选取169支有色金属板块标的 田庆争 S1350524050001 进行统计分析，2023年有色金属板块实现营收34153亿元，同比+1.10%；归母净利润1418亿元，同比 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com -29.01%。2024年Q1有色板块实现营收8113亿元，同比-3.37%；归母净利润288亿元，同比-28.61%。 项祈瑞 S1350524040002 ➢ 贵金属：美联储降息预期+新范式推动下贵金属价格中 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its strong position in the soft magnetic materials sector and the potential growth from its chip inductor business [42][70][73] Core Views - The company is a leader in the soft magnetic powder core sector, benefiting from the high growth of the new energy industry, particularly in photovoltaic and electric vehicle applications [33][38][42] - The chip inductor business, a new growth driver, is expected to see rapid expansion due to the increasing demand for AI computing power, with a projected 5-year CAGR of 41.6% [12][14][43] - The company has a dual-base production layout (Huidong and Heyuan), with capacity expected to reach over 50,000 tons by 2025, supporting its long-term growth [33][136] Product and Capacity - The company has a comprehensive product matrix, including alloy soft magnetic powder, powder cores, and inductor components, with a focus on high-power density and miniaturization [85][87] - The chip inductor business is expected to expand its monthly capacity to 10-15 million units by 2024, driven by AI server demand [34][147] - The company has established a joint venture with core employees to optimize resource allocation and enhance competitiveness in the chip inductor sector [3][34] Market Space and Growth - The global market for alloy soft magnetic powder cores is projected to grow from 4.59 billion yuan in 2022 to 10.01 billion yuan in 2025, with a 3-year CAGR of 29.7% [42][105] - The chip inductor market is expected to grow from 710 million yuan in 2022 to 4.06 billion yuan in 2027, driven by AI server demand, with a 5-year CAGR of 66.9% [14][43] - The company's alloy soft magnetic powder core business is expected to maintain a high gross margin of around 38% from 2024 to 2026 [37][150] Financial Performance - The company's revenue grew from 320 million yuan in 2018 to 1.16 billion yuan in 2023, with a 5-year CAGR of 29.0% [62] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased from 70 million yuan in 2018 to 260 million yuan in 2023, with a 5-year CAGR of 30.0% [62] - The company's R&D expenses have consistently accounted for 5-7% of its revenue, supporting its technological leadership [89][90] Competitive Advantages - The company has a vertically integrated supply chain, from alloy soft magnetic powder to powder cores and inductor components, which enhances cost efficiency and profitability [33][135] - It has established strong relationships with key customers, including ABB, BYD, Huawei, and ZTE, ensuring stable demand and market penetration [110][111] - The company's chip inductor products have been validated by several international chip manufacturers, with mass production and delivery starting in the second half of 2023 [34][145]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent short-term adjustments in commodity prices do not alter the long-term upward trend, suggesting potential re-entry opportunities in bulk metals [2]. - It notes that the performance of precious metals has been strong during price increases, while copper mining companies have shown decent results despite losses in smelting due to significantly reduced processing fees [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of financial attributes supporting commodity prices, indicating limited room for further price declines [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for April was below expectations, with only 175,000 jobs added, marking the lowest since October 2023, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% [8]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 5.25%-5.5% aligns with market expectations, with dovish comments from Powell supporting commodity prices [8]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the Shenyin Wanguo non-ferrous metals index fell by 1.34%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.87 percentage points, ranking 28th among all sectors [12]. - The top five performing stocks in the non-ferrous sector included Jixiang Co., Electric Power Investment Energy, and Hongchuang Holdings, while the worst performers were Zhongfu Industrial and Xiaocheng Technology [12]. Valuation Changes - The report states that the PE_TTM for the non-ferrous metals sector is 20.48, reflecting a change of 1.44 from the previous week, while the PB_LF is 2.19, with a slight change of 0.01 [19][20]. - The non-ferrous metals sector's valuation is significantly higher than the overall A-share market, with a ratio of 120% for PE and 152% for PB compared to the broader market [19][20]. Precious Metals - The report notes a decline in gold prices, with London spot gold down 2.08% and Shanghai gold down 0.08%, while silver prices also fell [21]. - Recommendations for investment focus on companies such as Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Shandong Gold Mining, which have shown strong performance [2]. Copper Sector - The report indicates that London copper prices fell by 1.35%, while Shanghai copper prices increased by 1.70%, with a notable decrease in smelting fees to $3.4 per ton [29]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals for potential investment opportunities [2]. Aluminum Sector - The report highlights a 1.60% decline in London aluminum prices, while Shanghai aluminum prices rose by 0.54%, with a decrease in both London and Shanghai inventories [34]. - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum for investment [2]. Lead and Zinc Sector - The report notes a 1.64% decrease in London lead prices, while zinc prices increased by 2.03%, with processing fees remaining stable at 3,250 yuan per ton [40]. - The report suggests that mining companies are experiencing improved profitability, with mining margins rising to 8,398 yuan per ton [40].

证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业定期报告 2024年5月8日 短调不改长期趋势，关注大宗金属再布局机会 看好 ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（24/04/29-24/05/05） （维持） 投资要点： 证券分析师 田源 ➢ 节日期间，外盘大宗金属整体回落，我们认为主因系前期避险情绪消退之后大宗金属价格回调，且个别金属 S1350524030001 如铜等价格已到关键点位，处于蓄能突破之中。4月非农数据低于预期，且美联储5月FOMC决议将基准 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 利率维持在5.25%-5.5%区间，基本符合市场预期，但鲍威尔在发布会上的表态偏鸽派，使得大宗价格开始 项祈瑞 S1350524040002 止跌。考虑金融属性对大宗的支撑，后续价格回调空间或相对有限，关注大宗商品回调再布局机会。 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com ➢ 从年报和一季度来看，在价格上涨过程中贵金属板块业绩表现较好；铜板块矿企业绩亦有不俗表现，但因为 联系人 冶炼加工费大幅下降导致冶炼亏损，自给率高的企业在这轮价格上涨过程中一季度利润表现平平；电解铝 板块整体较为平稳；其他如铅锌板块 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 行业定期报告 2024年05月06日 电力公用以及电力设备行业 23 年报&24 年一季报回顾 看好 ——公用事业 2024 年第 18 周周报（24/04/29-24/05/05） （维持） 投资要点： 证券分析师 ➢ 继续看好低协方差标的“四水两核”：长江电力、华能水电、国投电力、川投能源、中国核电、中国广核。推荐： 刘晓宁 黔源电力+湖北能源，黔源电力现金流强劲，有望享受低协方差扩散行情；湖北能源水火共振业绩大幅向好，央企 改革估值有望提振。推荐：理工能科，现金流优秀且重视股东回报，油色谱更新换代量价齐升带动公司业绩快速 S1350523120003 提升。 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com ➢ 涨幅回顾：本周推荐组合（等权配置）上涨0.7%，沪深300上涨0.6%，同花顺全A上涨1.2%，主动股基上涨 0.9%，推荐组合跑赢沪深300 0.1个百分点，跑输主动股基0.2个百分点。2024年以来推荐组合上涨16.97%， 联系人 沪深300上涨5.05%，同花顺全A下跌1.74%，主动股基下跌1.01%，关注组合跑赢沪深300 11.92个百分点， ...

证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 行业定期报告 2024年05月06日 电力公用以及电力设备行业 23 年报&24 年一季报回顾 看好 ——公用事业 2024 年第 18 周周报（24/04/29-24/05/05） （维持） 投资要点： 证券分析师 ➢ 继续看好低协方差标的“四水两核”：长江电力、华能水电、国投电力、川投能源、中国核电、中国广核。推荐： 刘晓宁 黔源电力+湖北能源，黔源电力现金流强劲，有望享受低协方差扩散行情；湖北能源水火共振业绩大幅向好，央企 改革估值有望提振。推荐：理工能科，现金流优秀且重视股东回报，油色谱更新换代量价齐升带动公司业绩快速 S1350523120003 提升。 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com ➢ 涨幅回顾：本周推荐组合（等权配置）上涨0.7%，沪深300上涨0.6%，同花顺全A上涨1.2%，主动股基上涨 0.9%，推荐组合跑赢沪深300 0.1个百分点，跑输主动股基0.2个百分点。2024年以来推荐组合上涨16.97%， 联系人 沪深300上涨5.05%，同花顺全A下跌1.74%，主动股基下跌1.01%，关注组合跑赢沪深300 11.92个百分点， ...