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A+H两地上市新能源平台 静待绿电机制理顺:龙源电力
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2024-05-18 09:02
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Longyuan Power (0916.HK) as a first coverage, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance in the renewable energy sector [3][6]. Core Insights - Longyuan Power is recognized as a pioneer in China's renewable energy development, being the first A+H dual-listed renewable energy platform in the country. The company has a total installed capacity of 35.59 million kilowatts as of December 2023, with wind power accounting for 27.75 million kilowatts, solar power for 5.96 million kilowatts, and thermal power for 1.875 million kilowatts [3][12]. - The company plans to add 30 million kilowatts of new renewable energy capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a commitment from the State Energy Group to inject additional wind power assets totaling 21.41 million kilowatts into Longyuan Power [3][14]. - The report highlights that accounts receivable are a key constraint on the valuation expansion of green power companies, particularly in the Hong Kong market, with Longyuan Power's accounts receivable reaching 35.7 billion yuan by the end of 2023 [3][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Pioneer in Renewable Energy Development - Longyuan Power has played a significant role in the history of wind power development in China, having entered the wind power operation industry in 1999 and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2009. The company achieved A+H dual listing by merging with ST Ping Energy in 2022 [3][12]. 2. Long-term Growth Potential - The company aims to increase its renewable energy capacity by 30 million kilowatts during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with the State Energy Group's commitment to inject additional assets confirming Longyuan's strategic importance in the group's renewable energy strategy [3][14]. 3. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts that Longyuan Power's net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders will be 6.73 billion, 7.44 billion, and 8.09 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8, 7, and 6 for the respective years [3][24].
银星能源:中铝旗下唯一绿电上市平台 老旧风场改造换新机
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2024-05-17 10:00
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Yinying Energy with an "Outperform" rating, reflecting its position as the sole green energy listed platform under Chinalco Group [4][5] Core Views - Yinying Energy is positioned as the exclusive green energy listed platform under Chinalco Group, with a strategic focus on expanding from Ningxia to nationwide [4][17] - The company benefits from the "replace old with new" initiative for aging wind farms, which is expected to enhance its operational efficiency and profitability [4][31] - Backed by Chinalco Group, Yinying Energy has significant potential in the "source-grid-load-storage" (SGLS) integration, leveraging its parent company's extensive industrial load and energy needs [31][44] Summary by Sections 1. Chinalco's Sole Green Energy Listed Platform - Yinying Energy is the only listed platform for green energy under Chinalco Group, with a controlling stake of 41.23% held by Chinalco Ningxia Energy Group [4][17] - As of 2023, the company has a total installed capacity of 1.92 GW, all from renewable energy sources, including 1.61 GW of wind power and 0.31 GW of photovoltaic (PV) capacity, primarily located in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi [4][17] - The company's wind power capacity accounts for approximately 10% of Ningxia's total wind power capacity [17] 2. Ningxia's Aging Wind Farms and Chinalco's SGLS Strategy - Ningxia, one of China's earliest provinces to develop wind power, faces a pressing need to upgrade its aging wind farms. The "replace old with new" initiative aims to update over 2 GW of capacity by 2025 [31][37] - Yinying Energy, as the first wind power operator in Ningxia, holds a significant share of high-quality wind resources, with approximately 70% of its existing wind capacity eligible for the "replace old with new" program [31][39] - The company's internal rate of return (IRR) for these projects is estimated at 10%, significantly higher than its current ROE [31] - Chinalco Group, as the world's largest electrolytic aluminum producer, faces urgent decarbonization needs under China's dual-carbon strategy. The group plans to develop new energy projects through SGLS integration, with Yinying Energy expected to play a central role [31][44] 3. Financial Projections and Valuation - The report forecasts Yinying Energy's net profit attributable to shareholders to reach RMB 251 million, RMB 312 million, and RMB 388 million for 2024-2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19x, 16x, and 13x [5][32] - Key assumptions include an increase in wind power utilization hours to 1,800, 2,000, and 2,100 hours for 2024-2026, and PV capacity additions of 200 MW, 500 MW, and 1,000 MW for the same period [32][50] - The company's valuation is supported by its strategic position within Chinalco Group and the potential for growth through the "replace old with new" initiative and SGLS projects [51] 4. Industry Context and Competitive Landscape - The renewable energy sector in Ningxia is expected to see significant growth, with total renewable energy capacity projected to exceed 50 GW by 2025, up from 36.43 GW in 2023 [37] - Yinying Energy's peers, such as China Three Gorges Renewables, Southern Power Grid Energy Efficiency & Clean Energy, and JZ Energy, have an average P/E ratio of 21x for 2024, compared to Yinying Energy's 19x [5][54] - The company's strategic initiatives and backing from Chinalco Group position it favorably within the competitive landscape of renewable energy operators [31][44]
有色金属24Q1基金持仓报告:有色金属板块机构配置持续加强,经济复苏+降息预期下板块景气度持续
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2024-05-17 08:30
证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业点评报告 2024年5月17日 有色金属板块机构配置持续加强,经济复苏+降息预期下板块景气度持续 看好 (维持) ——有色金属 24Q1 基金持仓报告 投资要点: 证券分析师 ➢ 有色金属板块机构持仓比例持续保持较高水平(2024Q1主动基金超配2.21%)。据Wind数 田源 S1350524030001 据,2024Q1主动型基金有色金属板块持股占比达5.49%,环比+1.39pct,超配比例达2.21%, tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 环比+1.13pct。同时,2024Q1 主动+被动型基金有色金属板块持股占比达 4.87%,环比 田庆争 S1350524050001 +1.20%;超配比例达1.60%,环比+0.94pct。 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 ➢ 我们认为超配比例提升得益于经济复苏+美联储降息预期+供需格局变化等多因素推动。在经济 S1350524040002 复苏+美联储降息预期+供需结构变化等多因素驱动下,贵金属、工业金属、小金属等商品价格 xiangqirui@huayuansto ...
三峡能源:三峡集团旗下新能源平台 静待绿电机制理顺
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2024-05-16 10:00
证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 首次覆盖报告 2024年05月16日 三峡能源 (600905.SH) 增持 ——三峡集团旗下新能源平台 静待绿电机制理顺 (首次覆盖) 投资要点: 证券分析师 ➢ 三峡集团旗舰上市平台,“三峡集团新能源业务的战略实施主体”。公司为三峡集团旗舰上市平 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 台,截至2024年3月,三峡集团直接持股28.11%,通过长江三峡投资管理有限公司间接持股 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 20.96%。除三峡能源外,三峡集团上市公司还包括长江电力、湖北能源以及三峡水利(综合能 源业务),公司业务定位为“三峡集团新能源业务的战略实施主体”。 研究支持 ➢ 新能源装机规模超过龙源电力,大力发展海风为公司特色。从体量上看,公司新能源在运规模已 经超过龙源电力,位居A+H股首位。截至2023年12月底,公司风电累计装机容量达到1942 联系人 刘晓宁 万千瓦,占全国市场份额的4.4%,其中海上风电累计装机容量549万千瓦,占全国市场份额的 S1350523120003 14.73%,为全国在运海风规模最大的上市公司;光伏装机容量达到1982 ...
创新重塑成长,家用器械平台龙头焕发新活力
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2024-05-13 05:30
证券研究报告 医药生物 首次覆盖报告 2024年05月13日 鱼跃医疗 (002223.SZ) 买入 —— 创新重塑成长,家用器械平台龙头焕发新活力 (首次覆盖) 投资要点: 证券分析师 ➢ 投资逻辑:公司是平台型家用器械龙头,2020年新管理层上任后积极布局呼吸与制氧、血糖 刘闯 及POCT、消毒感控三大高成长赛道,疫情期间产品远销全球,品牌影响力进一步扩大。持续 S1350524030002 看好公司长期成长空间,及海外市场潜力。 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com ➢ 创新重塑,聚焦三大核心赛道。2020年新管理层上任后提出“创新重塑医疗器械”新战略, 市场表现: 积极布局成长性业务,开始重点聚焦呼吸与制氧、血糖及POCT、消毒感控三大核心成长赛道, 研发力度持续增加。1)呼吸与制氧:我国COPD及OSA患者数量庞大,诊断率低,治疗渗 34% 透率提升空间大,而家用无创呼吸机是治疗OSA和COPD患者的主要手段之一。2020年疫 23% 11% 情发生后,鱼跃份额从2019年的4.6%增长至2020年7.3%,为国产头部厂商。最新产品第 0% 三代呼吸机已于2023年获批,有望凭借丰富 ...
国内ADC+出海先驱,国际化持续提速
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2024-05-13 04:02
证券研究报告 医药生物 首次覆盖报告 2024年05月13日 科伦博泰生物-B(6990.HK) 买入 ——国内 ADC+出海先驱,国际化持续提速 (首次覆盖) 投资要点: 证券分析师 ➢ 国际化平台创新药企,打造ADC领域旗舰地位。四川科伦博泰生物是科伦药业控股子公司,成 刘闯 立于2016年,2023年7月在港交所正式上市,并于2024年3月纳入港股通成分。公司专注 S1350524030002 于生物技术药物及创新小分子药物的研发、生产、商业化及国际合作。通过优势研发平台打造丰 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 富且全面的ADC创新管线,并与国际巨头药企达成战略合作,进军国际市场。 ➢ “OptiDC”研发平台助力公司 ADC 管线持续扩容,默沙东积极推进国际化进展。目前公司呈 市场表现: 现以ADC药物为核心,单抗、双抗、创新靶点小分子药物等热点领域并进的研发格局。目前公 科伦博泰生物-B 恒生指数 司已有 4 款的 ADC 药物进入临床阶段,覆盖 ADC 核心靶点 TROP2,HER2,CLDN18.2, 223% Nectin-4。此外,公司还有多款的临床前ADC药物储备。公司 ...
公用事业2024年第19周周报(20240512):港股反弹之际,关注港股公用高股息标的
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2024-05-13 03:05
证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 行业定期报告 2024年05月13日 港股反弹之际 关注港股公用高股息标的 看好 ——公用事业 2024 年第 19 周周报(20240512) (维持) 投资要点: 证券分析师 刘晓宁 ➢ 推荐低协方差资产组合:长江电力、华能水电、国投电力、川投能源、中国核电、中国广核。 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com ➢ 同时推荐黔源电力、湖北能源。湖北能源低估值享受协方差扩散行情、基本面及公司治理有显著边际变化。 黔源电力为水电板块的估值洼地,从现金流与净利润的比例角度看优于龙头水电,央企市值推动治理改善。 联系人 刘晓宁 ➢ 推荐组合回顾(等权):本周推荐组合(等权配置)下跌0.5%,沪深300上涨2.3%,同花顺全A上涨 S1350523120003 2.8%,主动股基上涨2.3%,推荐组合跑输沪深300 2.8个百分点,跑输主动股基2.8个百分点。2024 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 年以来推荐组合上涨15.5%,沪深300上涨6.9%,同花顺全A下跌0.3%,主动股基上涨1.1%,关注 板块表现: ...
公用事业2024年第19周周报:港股反弹之际 关注港股公用高股息标的
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2024-05-13 03:00
证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 行业定期报告 2024年05月13日 港股反弹之际 关注港股公用高股息标的 看好 ——公用事业 2024 年第 19 周周报(20240512) (维持) 投资要点: 证券分析师 刘晓宁 ➢ 推荐低协方差资产组合:长江电力、华能水电、国投电力、川投能源、中国核电、中国广核。 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com ➢ 同时推荐黔源电力、湖北能源。湖北能源低估值享受协方差扩散行情、基本面及公司治理有显著边际变化。 黔源电力为水电板块的估值洼地,从现金流与净利润的比例角度看优于龙头水电,央企市值推动治理改善。 联系人 刘晓宁 ➢ 推荐组合回顾(等权):本周推荐组合(等权配置)下跌0.5%,沪深300上涨2.3%,同花顺全A上涨 S1350523120003 2.8%,主动股基上涨2.3%,推荐组合跑输沪深300 2.8个百分点,跑输主动股基2.8个百分点。2024 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 年以来推荐组合上涨15.5%,沪深300上涨6.9%,同花顺全A下跌0.3%,主动股基上涨1.1%,关注 板块表现: ...
有色金属 大宗金属周报:大宗金属反弹,小金属普涨
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2024-05-13 01:00
证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业定期报告 2024年05月12日 大宗金属反弹,小金属普涨 看好 ——有色金属 大宗金属周报(24/5/6-24/5/12) (维持) 投资要点: 证券分析师 ➢ 上周我们在周报中指出:考虑金融属性对大宗的支撑,后续价格回调空间或相对有限,关注大宗商品回调再布 田源 局机会。本周大宗金属反弹,小金属迎来普涨。仍建议继续关注贵金属、低冶炼自给率的铜和高氧化铝自给率 S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 的电解铝板块,小金属建议关注:锰、锑、钨和铟。 田庆争 S1350124040045 ➢ 贵金属板块:伦敦现货黄金上涨3.40%、上期所黄金上涨0.52%,伦敦现货白银上涨8.08%、上期所白银 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 上涨3.23%,钯金上涨4.19%,铂金上涨2.80%。巴勒斯坦入联通过,巴以停火仍存较大不确定性,避险 S1350524040002 情绪升温,贵金属价格反弹。美联储虽利率政策不变,2%仍是美联储设定的通胀率目标。建议关注:紫金 xiangqirui@huayuans ...
有色金属 能源金属&新材料周报(24/5/624/5/12)能源金属震荡运行,软磁和铜合金材料持续景气
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2024-05-13 00:35
证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业定期报告 2024年5月12日 能源金属震荡运行,软磁和铜合金材料持续景气 看好 (维持) ——有色金属 能源金属&新材料周报(24/5/6-24/5/12) 投资要点: 证券分析师 田源 ➢ 能源金属方面,价格整体呈震荡运行趋势,短期镍和稀土表现偏强。锂:本周碳酸锂价格下跌 0.58%至 S1350524030001 111100元/吨,氢氧化锂价格下跌0.35%至100050元/吨,近期市场震偏弱荡运行。需求端,多数正极厂 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 于前期价格较低时期已经进行散单采备库,当下补库行情或已接近尾声,综合看碳酸锂采买观望情绪抬升, 田庆争 S1350124040045 现货市场成交较为清淡,后续关注下游企业对锂盐企业售价接受度的变动需求。建议关注:天齐锂业、赣锋 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 锂业、中矿资源、永兴材料。 项祈瑞 S1350524040002 ➢ 钴:本周海外 MB 钴价下跌1.15%至12.93 美元/磅,国内电钴价格下跌5.09%至20.50万元/吨,近期 xiangqirui@ ...