Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue and profit increase in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 4.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 27.5%, and adjusted profit of 444 million yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year [7] - The HNB (Heat Not Burn) segment is expected to become a major growth driver, with substantial sales growth anticipated in Japan and Europe [7] - The ODM+ strategy has shown satisfactory growth due to successful product iterations, with overall growth expected to exceed double digits [7] - The valuation of the company is expected to rise with the introduction of new compliant products and the recent FDA acceptance of a generic drug application for Breo® Ellipta® [7] - The company forecasts revenues of 14.2 billion, 16.9 billion, and 19.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.395 billion, 1.898 billion, and 2.368 billion yuan [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 11,168 million yuan in 2023, 11,799 million yuan in 2024, 14,200 million yuan in 2025, 16,900 million yuan in 2026, and 19,500 million yuan in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 20.35% in 2025 [6][8] - The net profit forecast shows a decline in 2024 to 1,303 million yuan, followed by a recovery to 1,395 million yuan in 2025, and further growth to 1,898 million yuan in 2026 and 2,368 million yuan in 2027 [6][8] - The company's EPS is projected to be 0.23 yuan in 2025, 0.31 yuan in 2026, and 0.38 yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 64.53x, 47.44x, and 38.02x [6][8]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the light manufacturing industry, emphasizing the potential for recovery and growth in various segments [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The overall export value for furniture, entertainment products, paper, and packaging printing from January to August was 898.9 billion, 2132.4 billion, 524.5 billion, and 401.2 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7.9%, -1.2%, +2.2%, and -1.4% [6]. - Domestic industry performance from January to August showed a year-on-year increase in value added for furniture at -5.1%, entertainment products at +0.9%, paper at +3.2%, and packaging printing at +1.3% [6]. Group 2: Market Trends - The report highlights that the information technology sector is enhancing global production efficiency, leading to ongoing supply innovation and product upgrades [6]. - The report suggests that the pet and personal care sectors are still in a favorable economic cycle, while the furniture sector is in a bottoming process [6]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies related to pets, personal care, and the export chain, as these areas are expected to benefit from ongoing trends in supply chain innovation and product upgrades [6]. - Specific companies are highlighted with projected revenues and profit margins for Q3 2025, indicating a range of expected growth rates [7].

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials sector, highlighting a divergence in performance among companies, with demand being a central theme [2][4] - The report emphasizes that the construction materials industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with some companies benefiting from improved competitive dynamics while others face challenges due to demand and pricing pressures [7][10] Group 1: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment shows a divergence in performance, with companies like Sanhe Tree and Oriental Yuhong expected to achieve significant growth due to improved competition and reduced pricing pressures [10][11] - The revenue for Q3 is anticipated to remain flat or decline for most building materials companies, but some may see slight year-on-year increases due to favorable competitive conditions [10][11] - Cost factors such as stable or declining prices for key materials like asphalt and PVC positively impact margins for waterproofing and coating companies [10][11] Group 2: Cement Industry - The cement industry faces weak demand from both real estate and infrastructure sectors, with production volumes declining by 5.6% and 6.2% year-on-year in July and August respectively [12][13] - The average price of cement in Q3 2025 was 343.86 RMB/ton, reflecting a decrease of 8.74% quarter-on-quarter and 10.55% year-on-year, indicating significant pricing pressure [12][13] - The report notes that the industry is currently at a low profitability level due to high inventory and rising production costs driven by coal prices [13] Group 3: Glass Industry - The glass industry is experiencing downward pressure on prices and profitability due to declining demand from the real estate sector, with the average price in Q3 2025 at 68.25 RMB/weight box, down 4.42% quarter-on-quarter [19] - High inventory levels persist in the glass sector, with 5,329 million weight boxes reported by the end of September, exacerbating the pricing challenges [19][20] - The report indicates that while raw material costs have decreased, the overall impact on profitability remains negative due to significant price declines [19] Group 4: Glass Fiber Industry - The glass fiber industry is characterized by structural demand differentiation, with high-end products performing better than low-end offerings, leading to a mixed profitability landscape [21] - The average price for non-alkali glass fiber yarn in Q3 2025 was 4,270 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 44 RMB/ton, indicating pricing challenges [21] - The report highlights that the industry is facing high inventory levels, with 860,000 tons reported by the end of September, contributing to ongoing profitability pressures [21] Group 5: Company Performance Forecast - The report provides a forecast for various companies in the building materials sector, with Oriental Yuhong expected to achieve a net profit of 374-442 million RMB in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12%-32% [26] - Sanhe Tree is projected to see a significant increase in net profit, with estimates ranging from 329-366 million RMB, indicating a growth of 64%-83% year-on-year [26] - Other companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement are also highlighted for their potential profitability improvements, with net profit forecasts indicating positive growth trends [26]

Core Insights - The report indicates a downward trend in pig prices due to increased supply and policy guidance, leading to accelerated capacity reduction in the industry [1][7][18] - The overall agricultural sector has shown a positive performance with a 1.18% increase week-on-week, while the pig farming segment is experiencing significant losses [11][36] Pig Farming Data Tracking - The number of breeding sows has slightly decreased, with a 0.33% month-on-month decline in September [19] - Pig prices have dropped significantly, with the average price on October 9 being 11.89 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 6.16% [28][29] - The profitability of pig farming remains negative, with losses of 152.15 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and 301.04 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of October 10 [36] Poultry Farming Data Tracking - The poultry sector is facing challenges due to outbreaks of avian influenza, but there are investment opportunities in the white-feathered chicken market [37] - The average price for white-feathered meat chickens was 6.88 CNY/kg on October 10, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.15% [40] Animal Health Data Tracking - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, driven by an increase in livestock numbers and new product launches [47] - Significant growth in vaccine approvals has been noted, with various companies making advancements in vaccine development [47] Seed Industry Data Tracking - The prices of key agricultural commodities such as wheat and soybean meal have increased, indicating a positive trend in the seed industry [50] - The report emphasizes the importance of strengthening food security and promoting the commercialization of biological breeding [50] Pet Industry Data Tracking - Pet food exports have decreased by 15.5% year-on-year, amounting to 834 million CNY in August 2025 [56] - Domestic sales of pet food are growing rapidly, with a combined growth rate of 3% across major e-commerce platforms in September [57]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of 10-year Treasury bond futures has begun since September 25, and it's advisable to participate in the rebound on dips. T2512 may rise above the September 17 high of 108.165 on Monday. If so, it's considered the fourth wave of the decline since May, and one can consider participating in the rebound on dips. First, pay attention to the resistance around the low of the first wave at 108.41. If this level is broken, from a quarterly line perspective, focus on the resistance around 108.93. There may still be adjustments after the rebound ends [2][10]. - Treasury bond futures rose overall this week, except for TS which declined. The trading activity of Treasury bond futures decreased overall. The average daily trading volume of the 2512 contracts of each maturity decreased compared with last week, except for TS2512 which increased. The volume/position ratio decreased for all maturities except for TS2512 which rebounded. The CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts increased across the board, and the IRR decreased overall. Currently, the IRR is around 1.3%-1.4%, still relatively low compared with the funding rate, so the value of participating in the cash-and-carry strategy is limited, and it's better to wait for a better opportunity [3]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Technical Analysis 1.1 Pre - trend Review - T2512 closed with a negative line in the third quarter and a doji in September. Since September 25, it has continued to rebound, and the level of the rebound may expand. On October 10, the rebound hit resistance at the 60 - day line, but the spot bonds performed well on Saturday. If there is no significant fluctuation before the market opens on Monday, T2512 may rise further, and the lowest price on September 25 may become a phased low [7]. 1.2 Future Market Outlook - Due to the significant decline in the spot Treasury bond yield on Saturday, T2512 may rise above the September 17 high of 108.165 on Monday, completely retracing the previous decline. The previous adjustment may have ended on September 25, and it's currently the fourth wave of the decline since May. One can consider participating in the rebound on dips. If it rises above 108.165 on Monday, the period from July 7 to September 25 is considered the third wave of the decline since early May, which extended and had nine sub - waves, with the fifth wave being an ending diagonal triangle. First, pay attention to the resistance around 108.41, and if broken, focus on the resistance around 108.93 from a quarterly line perspective. There may still be adjustments after the rebound ends [10]. 2. Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - After the holiday, Treasury bond futures rose overall. As of the close on October 10, the closing prices of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 102.354, 105.650, 107.980, and 113.97 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.018, + 0.020, + 0.135, and + 0.07 yuan compared with before the holiday [15]. - The trading activity of Treasury bond futures decreased overall this week. The average daily trading volume of the 2512 contracts of each maturity decreased compared with last week, except for TS2512 which increased. The volume/position ratio decreased for all maturities except for TS2512 which rebounded [3][15]. - As of October 10, the positions of the 2512 contracts of Treasury bond futures were divided, with TS and TF decreasing and T and TL increasing [15]. - As of October 10, the CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts of each maturity increased across the board, with the CTD net basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year 2512 contracts being + 0.01, 0.00, + 0.02, and + 0.01 yuan respectively [20]. - In terms of IRR, the IRR corresponding to the CTD of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 1.37%, 1.42%, 1.33%, and 1.41% respectively, all of which decreased. Currently, the IRR level is not high compared with the funding rate, so the value of participating in the cash-and-carry strategy is limited, and it's better to wait for a better opportunity [20]. - The spread between the 2512 - 2603 contracts was divided this week, with the spreads of 5 - year and 10 - year decreasing, and the spreads of 2 - year and 30 - year showing no obvious change [20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 710 million to 738 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 169 million to 197 million yuan, or a growth of 31.17% to 36.34% [7] - The third quarter net profit is projected to continue to grow significantly, with an expected increase of 48.36% to 66.45% year-on-year [7] - The company is undergoing a comprehensive transformation towards AI+, focusing on AI-driven solutions in various sectors, including diagnostics and energy management [7] - The traditional business remains stable, while new business lines are anticipated to open a second growth curve for the company [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 49.62 billion, 61.58 billion, and 75.13 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 9.55 billion, 12.42 billion, and 15.17 billion yuan [7] - The company’s revenue growth rates are forecasted at 26.2%, 24.1%, and 22.0% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6] - The net profit growth rates are expected to be 49.0%, 30.1%, and 22.1% for the same years [6] - The company’s PE ratios are projected to be 27, 21, and 17 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7] Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a performance of -13% over the last 12 months compared to the CSI 300 index [4]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strategic shift towards large financial sectors and consumer markets, indicating a rebound following the maximum negative impact of tariffs, with a notable performance in the AH market and a rise in the Shanghai Composite Index by over 10% to above 3800 points [2][9] - The fourth quarter strategy focuses on three main lines: traditional economic cycles, new economic technology, and service consumption [2][9] Group 1: Economic and Market Analysis - The report outlines a preference for "internal focus," highlighting sectors such as autonomous control (AI software, AI chips, semiconductor equipment and materials, aerospace), emotional consumption (Hong Kong internet, tea and dining, gold jewelry), and new quality industries (robots, nuclear fusion, solid-state batteries) [3][10] - Traditional economic sectors include anti-involution industries (silicon materials, coal, steel, copper smelting) and large financial sectors (insurance, brokerage, banking) [3][10] - Marginal easing signals are noted, with a shift towards external demand-related sectors in the third quarter, such as North American computing power and innovative pharmaceuticals [3][10] Group 2: Trade Tensions and Market Reactions - The report reviews the escalation of trade tensions, indicating a 6% decline in the A-share market during the rapid escalation phase, while anti-tariff and rare earth sectors saw increases of 18% and 7% respectively [4][11] - During the phase of easing tensions, the A-share market rose by 5%, with export-oriented and rare earth sectors increasing by 6% and 1% respectively [12] - Following the agreement phase, the A-share market surged by 12%, with export, anti-tariff, and rare earth sectors rising by 16%, 7%, and 64% respectively [12] Group 3: Third Quarter Earnings Forecast - As of October 11, 61 companies in the A-share market have disclosed third-quarter earnings forecasts, with the steel and light manufacturing industries showing strong growth [13][15] - The report highlights a high forecast rate for industries such as steel, light manufacturing, food and beverage, retail, non-bank financials, and public utilities [15] - The materials sector is expected to improve overall, with steel industry profits revised upwards, benefiting from anti-involution policies and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [15][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The global large model Agent capability is accelerating its industrialization, shifting from a focus on parameter scale competition to embedding Agent capabilities into systems and core entry points [7][10] - The transformation of large models is evolving from "single language interaction" to "multi-modal perception," enabling them to "see and do" while being controllable and manageable throughout the entire process [10] - Domestic companies are collaborating around a "model-entry-computing power" framework, establishing a triangular industrial structure that is gradually closing the loop from "model → platform → entry/scenario → supply side" [7][10] Summary by Sections Global Large Model Agent Capability Industrialization - Since September 2025, the focus has shifted from "parameter scale competition" to "Agent capability embedding," with significant advancements in commercial viability from companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google [10] - OpenAI's Sora 2 model and app have entered a commercial operational phase, integrating video generation technology with compliance management [12] - Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 4.5 model enhances engineering capabilities for long-term tasks and tool operations, focusing on production environment usability [13] - Google has integrated Gemini into Chrome, enabling high-frequency scenarios and expanding capabilities from answering to executing tasks [18] Content, Agent, and Entry Advancement: Paths of Overseas Leading Companies - Overseas companies are using product forms and system interfaces to support Agents, transitioning from "can speak and answer" to "can see and do" [22] - The focus is on thickening entry points (browsers/home) and toolchains (SDK/testing/security) to facilitate the transition from technical demonstrations to industrialization [22] Model-Entry-Computing Power Convergence: The Chinese Path - Alibaba's Qwen3-Max flagship model leads the "model-platform-entry" upgrade, establishing a comprehensive path from foundational models to enterprise tools and creative entry points [23] - Tencent's Agent Development Platform 3.0 and mixed models have shown significant advancements, with a focus on efficiency and global expansion [28] - Baidu's Wenxin model X1.1 has improved performance metrics significantly, enhancing its capabilities in complex writing and long-term tasks [30] Domestic and International AI Upgrade Resonance - The AI industry is entering a critical phase of large-scale implementation, with future competition focusing on the construction of an "engineering triangle" system [47] - The core differences between domestic and international developments lie in the pace and financial structure, with international firms accelerating exploration but facing higher risks [56]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The main concerns this week include the escalation of Sino-US shipping friction, the weak real estate sales, the downward trend of commodity prices, the decline in most production开工率, the strong mobility in consumption, the downward trend of prices in inflation, and the upward trend of SCFI and downward trend of BDI in exports [2]. - Real estate sales were weak this week, with the new - home transaction area in 20 cities showing a significant decline both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the new - deal effect of the new policy is diminishing. The transaction area of second - hand housing also decreased significantly [2]. - In terms of investment and production, most commodity prices declined, including steel, cement, asphalt, and glass futures. In industrial production, most开工率 decreased, while PTA开工率 increased slightly [2]. - In consumption, mobility was strong, with subway rides and domestic flights above the seasonal level, car consumption in line with the season, and movie box office below the seasonal level [2]. - In terms of inflation, pork, vegetable, and oil prices all declined [2]. - In exports, SCFI increased and BDI decreased significantly due to the escalation of Sino - US shipping friction [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales: The Effect of New Policies is Diminishing - This week (October 3 - 9), the new - home transaction area in 20 cities decreased by 74.87% month - on - month and 31.63% year - on - year. The new - home transaction area in all tiers of cities turned negative month - on - month, mainly due to the holiday, and remained negative year - on - year, indicating the diminishing effect of new policies [2][7]. - For second - hand housing, the transaction area in each city decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [2]. 2. Investment: Most Commodity Prices Declined - Investment - related commodity prices mostly declined this week. The price of rebar decreased slightly due to weak demand and anti - seasonal inventory accumulation; the cement price decreased slightly due to weak demand, over - capacity, and insufficient cost support; the asphalt price dropped as supply increased and demand was hindered by rainfall in the South; the glass futures price decreased during the inventory - building period and due to continuous rainy weather affecting enterprise shipments [2]. 3. Production: Most Operating Rates Declined - In industrial production, most operating rates declined. The operating rates of coking enterprises and polyester filament decreased slightly, the operating rate of automobile tires decreased significantly, the operating rate of steel - mill blast furnaces remained basically flat, and the PTA operating rate increased slightly [2]. 4. Consumption: Mobility was Strong - In consumption, mobility was strong. Subway rides and domestic flights were above the seasonal level, car consumption was in line with the season, and movie box office was below the seasonal level [2]. 5. Exports: SCFI Increased, BDI Decreased - This week, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) increased, while the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased significantly. The escalation of Sino - US shipping friction led to a slight increase in freight rates [2]. 6. Prices: Pork, Vegetable, and Oil Prices Declined - In terms of prices, pork, vegetable, and oil prices all declined. Vegetable prices decreased due to sufficient supply and weakening consumption demand; crude oil prices decreased as geopolitical risks eased [2].

分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 闵志新 minzx@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《假期高频 | 十一期间海内外有哪些变 化？ 》 2025-10-07 2. 《重视股性，兼顾结构机会——四季度转 债策略》 2025-10-06 3. 《利率 | 9 月宏观数据怎么看？》 2025-10-05 证券研究报告 固收专题报告 / 2025.10.09 核心观点 ❖ 当前宏观环境下，债市可以积极看待。一方面，经济内生动能偏弱，7-8 月经济数据有所下滑，PPI 持续在低位徘徊，信贷数据偏弱，内需不足的问题 有所显现；且外部环境急剧变化的不确定性增加，贸易摩擦加剧、地缘政治冲 突日益加剧，美国、欧元区和日本制造业 PMI 明显下滑，外需面临一定压力。 另一方面，资产荒格局可能再度深化。淡化信贷总量、优化信贷结构或是未来 方向，四季度信贷增长可能保持弱势，且政府债净融资或同比大幅下降。 收益方面，今年平安 0-3 国开债券 ETF 的 YTD 达到 ...