机械设备 / 行业专题报告 / 2024.10.13 核电设备系列专题报告（三） 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -25% -17% -8% 0% 8% 16% 机械设备 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 佘炜超 SAC 证书编号：S0160522080002 shewc@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《五个核电项目一次性完成核准，赛 道长期高景气》 2024-08-20 2. 《去库拐点已至，锂电化新纪元可期》 2024-06-27 3. 《 智 能 机 器 人 行 业 深 度 报 告 》 2024-04-18 核电阀门受益于核准常态化，加速发展 证券研究报告 核心观点 ❖ 核准常态化步伐加快，核电设备有望获益：核能是一种清洁、低碳、高效、 运行稳定的能源形式，在保障能源安全、推动能源转型、助力碳达峰碳中和及 气候目标实现中发挥着重要作用。中国加快推动能源绿色低碳转型，"十四五" 现代能源体系规划明确提出，到 2025 年，核电运行装机容量将达到 70GW 左 右。同时，核准机组连续三年 10 台以上，核准节奏加快，核电设备迎来快速 发展。 ❖ 核电站建设和维保需求带动核电阀门需求提升：核 ...

房地产开发 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.10.13 房地产行业周报（2024 年第 41 周） 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -35% -25% -15% -4% 6% 16% 房地产开发 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 欧阳之光 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070001 oyzg@ctsec.com 分析师 吴梦茹 SAC 证书编号：S0160524060001 wumr@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《房地产行业周报（2024 年第 38 周）》 2024-09-24 2. 《房地产行业周报（2024 年第 37 周）》 2024-09-20 3. 《房地产行业周报（2024 年第 36 周）》 2024-09-08 多地跟进优化地产政策 证券研究报告 核心观点 ❖ 本周板块回顾：本周申万房地产指数下跌 8.31%，沪深 300 指数较上周下跌 3.25%，板块跑输沪深 300 指数 5.06pct，在 31 个板块中排第 29 位。 ❖ 行业数据回顾：本周 30 大中城市商品房成交面积 106 万平米，环比-47.0%， 同比-53.0%。细分城市能级来看，30 大中 ...

投资策略报告/ 2024.10.13 加仓 ——红旗迎风展 3 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Economic Overview - Economic conditions show marginal improvement, with demand-side indicators mixed; new home sales remain weak, particularly in lower-tier cities, while second-hand homes are trading at lower prices[1] - Retail sales of passenger cars are increasing due to the implementation of trade-in policies, with a notable rise in sales during the National Day holiday[1] Real Estate Market - In the first ten days of October, new home sales in 42 cities saw a year-on-year decline of 34.2%, while second-hand home sales dropped by 45.6%[5] - The average price of new homes in 100 cities increased by 1.9% year-on-year in September, while second-hand homes saw a decline of 7.1%[5] Automotive Industry - In September, retail sales of passenger cars increased by 2%, and wholesale sales rose by 1%[8] - The inventory warning index for automobiles decreased to 54, indicating improved market conditions[10] Consumer Goods - Sales of major home appliances showed positive growth in August, with air conditioner sales up by 7.3% year-on-year, refrigerators by 10.0%, and washing machines by 13.4%[12] - The average actual revenue per available hotel room increased by 15.4% year-on-year, reflecting strong demand during the holiday season[22] Steel Industry - Steel mill profitability has significantly rebounded, with the operating rate of blast furnaces rising to 80.8% and steel production growth recovering to -5.9%[36] - The price of rebar has increased, driven by macroeconomic policies and rising raw material costs, while hot-rolled steel prices have decreased due to oversupply[36] Cement and Glass Markets - National average cement prices continue to rise, with demand recovering as seasonal weather improves[38] - The average price of float glass has rebounded, with a significant reduction in inventory levels, reaching the lowest since March[41] Agricultural Products - The agricultural product wholesale price index has decreased by 0.6%, with pork prices dropping by 2.3% and egg prices by 2.1%[16] Oil Market - Oil prices have increased due to geopolitical tensions and supply constraints, with the average price rising amid concerns over production limits from OPEC+ members[45]

Pension System Structure - The US pension system is built on a "three-pillar" model, with the first pillar (public pensions) accounting for 6.2%, the second pillar (employer-sponsored plans) for 58%, and the third pillar (individual retirement accounts) for 35.8% of total pension assets as of 2023[1] - The second pillar, which includes DB (Defined Benefit) and DC (Defined Contribution) plans, is the core of the US pension system, with DB plans gradually being replaced by DC plans due to cost and flexibility advantages[1][26] - The third pillar, primarily consisting of IRAs, has seen significant growth, with over half of US households owning an IRA account as of 2023[1][32] Investment Allocation - The first pillar invests primarily in special government bonds, with long-term Treasury bonds making up 93% of its portfolio as of 2023[37][39] - The second pillar focuses on stocks and mutual funds, with 30.5% allocated to company stocks and 20.4% to mutual funds as of Q2 2024[44] - The third pillar has shifted from bank deposits to mutual funds, stocks, and bonds, with 43.1% allocated to mutual funds and 48.4% to other assets like stocks and bonds as of 2023[49][50] Financial Product Innovations - Lifecycle funds, which adjust investment strategies based on the holder's age, account for 19.7% of DC plan assets and 5.3% of IRA assets as of 2023, with 85.5% of lifecycle fund assets held by pension funds[56][57] - Annuities dominate the US life insurance market, contributing 53% of direct premium income in 2023, while traditional life insurance accounts for only 22.8%[61][62] - The US long-term care insurance market has declined due to rising claims and premiums, with 78% of policyholders aged 50-69 as of 2024[65][66]

上汽集团(600104) / 乘用车 / 公司点评 / 2024.10.12 新能源车销量稳步攀升，海外销量稳健增长 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-10-11 | | 收盘价 ( 元 ) | 13.67 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 115.75 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 24.76 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 115.75 | | 最近 12 月市场表现 | | ❖ 事件：公司发布 9 月销量公告，公司总销量 31.3 万辆，同比减少 35.03%。 ❖ 新能源汽车销量稳步攀升：9 月份，上汽集团新能源车销售 12.9 万辆，同 比增长 38.26%，占比为 41.28%，新能源市场持续发力。今年 1-9 月份，上汽 新能源汽车累计交付 88.6 万辆，同比增长 29.5%。其中，智己汽车终端交付量 超过 4500 辆，同比增长超过 150%。 ❖ 加快拓展海外市场：今年 1-9 月份。上汽集团海外市场终端交付量达到 80.6 万辆， ...

汽车 / 行业点评报告 / 2024.10.12 特斯拉"We Robot 发布会点评" 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -25% -17% -9% -1% 7% 15% 汽车 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 邢重阳 SAC 证书编号：S0160522110003 xingcy01@ctsec.com 分析师 李渤 SAC 证书编号：S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《加强电动自行车产品准入及行业规 范管理的公告点评》 2024-10-10 2. 《Robotaxi 行业专题报告二》 2024- 10-10 3. 《9 月重卡行业洞察》 2024-10-08 ❖ 风险提示：行业竞争加剧的风险；高阶自动驾驶技术不及预期的风险；行业 政策法规推出时间不及预期的风险。 证券研究报告 Cybercab 有望带动 Robotaxi 产业链快速发展 核心观点 ❖ 事件：10 月 11 日，特斯拉举行了主题为"We Robot"的发布会。在现场，特 斯拉发布了自动驾驶出租车 Cybercab、Robovan 和机器人 Optimus。 ❖ 推出自动驾驶出租车 Cybe ...

协创数据(300857) / 消费电子 / 公司点评 / 2024.10.12 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-------------------------| | 投资评级 : 买入 \n基本数据 | ( 维持 ) \n2024-10-11 | | 收盘价 ( 元 ) | 71.70 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 2.45 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 11.51 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 2.45 | | 最近 12 月市场表现 | | -15% 28% 70% 112% 155% 197% 协创数据 沪深300 分析师 杨烨 SAC 证书编号：S0160522050001 yangye01@ctsec.com 分析师 罗云扬 SAC 证书编号：S0160522050002 luoyy@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《毛利率显著提升，云+AI 战略持续 推进》 2024-08-27 2. 《业绩保持高增速，Q2 单季度净利 率超 10%》 2024-08-08 3. 《业务全面升级，布局云与 AI》 向 AI 算力服务商 ...

单击或点击此处输入文字。 计算机 / 行业点评报告 / 2024.10.11 端侧 AI 加速，字节发布 AI 耳机，融入豆包模型 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -37% -27% -16% -5% 5% 16% 计算机 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 杨烨 SAC 证书编号：S0160522050001 yangye01@ctsec.com 联系人 郑元昊 zhengyh03@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《国庆假期，科技行业都发生了什 么？》 2024-10-07 2. 《AI 电力，能耗与运营的双重革命》 2024-10-07 3. 《政策刺激下，支付交易量有望回暖， 关注支付 IT》 2024-09-28 核心观点 证券研究报告 ❖ 事件：2024 年 10 月 10 日，字节跳动旗下豆包大模型团队发布了首款 AI 智 能体耳机 Ola Friend，耳机与豆包大模型深度融合，同时接入 Seed-ASR 语音 识别技术（支持高精度识别中英文、口音），只需通过语音命令即可唤醒豆包， 无需额外操作手机，目前已开启预售，于 10 月 17 日正式发货，售价 1199 元。 ❖ 产品定位 ...

通胀下降步伐放缓 ——9 月美国通胀数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 联系人 马乐怡 maly@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《"细"节定成败——美国大选辩论及 8 月通胀数据解读》 2024-09-12 2. 《低通胀稳固降息预期——7 月美国 通胀数据解读》 2024-08-15 3. 《降息条件达成——6 月美国通胀数 据解读》 2024-07-12 4. 《通胀有所降温——5 月美国通胀数 据解读》 2024-06-13 5. 《核心通胀仍趋回落——4 月美国通 胀数据解读》 2024-05-16 核心观点 ❖ 住房带动服务通胀回落。9 月核心服务同比增速为 4.7%，较上月下降 0.2 个 百分点。9 月业主等价租金同比增速略降至 5.2%，房屋项通胀有所下行，此前 市场租金的持续下降正逐渐反映在 CPI 中。房价和市场租金指数等领先指标 同比增速仍然在下行通道中，指向未来房屋项通胀仍将继续回落。整体来看， 房屋项通胀或有望持续下降，带动服务项通胀压力继续缓解。 ❖ 11 月大概率降息 25bp。9 月通 ...