投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -25% -19% -14% -8% -2% 4% 汽车 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 邢重阳 SAC 证书编号:S0160522110003 xingcy01@ctsec.com 分析师 李渤 SAC 证书编号:S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com LNG、新能源以及出口重卡销量均同比增长 核心观点 ❖ 事件: 2024 年 6 月份,我国重卡市场销售约 7.4 万辆左右(开票口径,包含 出口和新能源),环比 5 月份下降 5%,比上年同期的 8.65 万辆下滑 14%,减 少了约 1.2 万辆。累计来看,2024 年 1-6 月,我国重卡市场销售各类车型约 50.7 万辆,比上年同期上涨 4%,净增加近 2 万辆。 ❖ LNG 重卡销量增速环比 5 月有所下滑,同比保持较高增速:根据第一 商用车网的统计,6 月份国内天然气重卡终端销量环比 5 月份下降超过 20%, 预计 6 月份 LNG 重卡销量同比增速在 25-30%左右,国内终端市场渗透率在 36-38%。天然气重卡市场销量表现"淡季不淡"。 ❖ 新能源重卡同比增速约为 100% ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper prices, suggesting potential for further increases in the future [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices have risen over 10% this year, with a significant spike in May due to limited inventory, surpassing pre-Ukraine conflict levels, followed by a slight correction in June [2][7]. - The supply-demand framework highlights that copper's demand reflects economic activity, with a tight supply situation expected in both the short and long term due to declining ore grades and limited new discoveries [2][3][11]. - The demand for copper is primarily driven by developed economies, while developing economies contribute to incremental demand, particularly in power network construction [2][20]. Supply-Demand Framework - The copper industry has a long supply chain, encompassing mining, smelting, processing, and recycling [8]. - Supply is constrained, with primary copper (about 80% of total) sourced from mining, mainly in Chile and Peru, while secondary copper from recycling is less significant but increasing [11][12]. - Demand is concentrated in developed economies, with emerging markets driving growth, particularly in power and household appliances [20][21]. Price System - Copper prices are influenced by global economic conditions, with historical data showing a strong correlation with emerging market demand since 2003 [2][3]. - The pricing logic indicates that real supply-demand factors and investment motives are key drivers of copper prices, while risk aversion has a lesser impact [2][3]. Future Trends - The report suggests that while the extreme price surge may not recur, both short-term and long-term fundamentals will support copper price increases [3]. - The projected price midpoint for copper by the end of the year is approximately $10,230 per ton, indicating a potential increase of over 4% from recent prices around $9,850 per ton [3]. - Factors that could lead to price corrections include unexpected Federal Reserve actions, economic downturns, or significant new copper discoveries [3].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Maintain "Accumulate" [20] Core Views - The company is shifting its development strategy to focus on digital technology, establishing a wholly-owned subsidiary with an investment of RMB 2 billion to enhance its digital business capabilities [15][13] - The company has divested its engineering construction segment, concentrating resources on environmental technology and park operations, which are expected to drive future growth [14] - The environmental technology segment achieved record revenue and profit in 2023, while the industrial park operations faced challenges but are set to improve through a comprehensive operational model [14] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 14,673 million, with a growth rate of 4.91%, followed by a significant decline of 70.78% in 2024 [12] - Net profit for 2023 is expected to reach RMB 1,079 million, with a growth rate of 86.52%, but is projected to drop to RMB 297 million in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 72.44% [12] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 0.28, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 34.84 [12] Business Strategy and Future Outlook - The company aims to leverage the digital economy's potential, aligning with national strategies to enhance digital technology integration with the real economy [15] - The environmental technology sector is expected to expand into energy-saving fields, while the industrial park operations will focus on resource integration and investment management [14] - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in net profit growth from 2024 to 2026, with projections of RMB 297 million, RMB 303 million, and RMB 333 million respectively [15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [23]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the domestic lawn mower export market, focusing on outdoor power equipment (OPE) and has a promising future with its own brand development [39][68]. - The company has established a strategic partnership with Home Depot, which is expected to drive significant revenue growth [25][26]. - The global OPE market is projected to reach $32.4 billion by 2025, with lawn mowers being a core category, indicating substantial growth opportunities [4][54]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been focused on OPE since its establishment in 2006, with a significant emphasis on lawn mowers, which account for 86.8% of its revenue in 2023 [39][68]. - The company has successfully transitioned from an OEM model to developing its own brands, such as MOWOX and Green Machine, since 2016 [15][16]. Market Analysis - The OPE market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.3%, with the fuel-powered segment remaining dominant, accounting for 66.4% of the market in 2020 [74]. - The lawn mower market alone is projected to grow from $9.3 billion in 2020 to $11.99 billion by 2025, with a CAGR of 5.2% [54]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are $1.74 billion, $2.56 billion, and $3.37 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 86.9%, 47.4%, and 31.7% [26]. - The net profit is expected to reach $90 million, $158 million, and $248 million for the same years, reflecting significant growth potential [26]. Strategic Partnerships - The exclusive supply agreement with Home Depot positions the company's Murray brand favorably in the market, enhancing its competitive edge [25][63]. - The partnership is expected to provide the company with better channel support and increased visibility in retail [64]. Product Development - The company is actively investing in R&D, with a focus on expanding its product line to include lithium battery-powered equipment, which is gaining traction in the market [5][68]. - The company has a robust pipeline of new products, including riding mowers and battery-powered devices, which are anticipated to contribute to future revenue growth [5][71].

投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 电力设备 沪深300 上证指数 -40% -32% -23% -14% -6% 3% 分析师 张一弛 SAC 证书编号:S0160522110002 zhangyc02@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《海外 5 月出口数据变压器继续高 增》 2024-06-27 2. 《关注特高压,锂电池涨价》 2024- 06-20 3. 《江苏海风风机进一步推动,关注特 高压二次配网》 2024-06-11 核心观点 周观点 证券研究报告 ❖ 光伏:5 月份光伏新增装机 1904 万千瓦(19.04GW),同比增长 47.6%,环 比增长 32.5%,已恢复增长态势。光伏产业链出清加速进行,关注行业反 弹机会。 ❖ 电力设备:国网 2024 年 5 月电网建设投资 474 亿元,同比增长 13.9%,单月 增速显著。南网亦宣布 2024 年固定资产投资 1730 亿元,同比增长 23.5%,两 网投资增速支撑全年电力设备需求。特高压工程高质量建设推进大会也明确 了特高压的重要性,关注该领域的投资机会。 ❖ 风电:本周新增风机招标项目 1.63GW,均为陆上项目;国家能 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong growth potential through its dual beauty brands, with significant increases in GMV during the 618 sales event. Specifically, the brand "可复美" saw a GMV growth of over 60% year-on-year, while "可丽金" achieved over 100% growth [3] - The company is expected to accelerate new product launches in the beauty segment, with successful new products already released, including a face cream that ranked top in sales on major platforms [3] - The medical beauty pipeline is anticipated to grow rapidly due to channel and customer reuse, with a significant number of medical channels already established [3] - Revenue projections for the company are optimistic, with expected revenues of 49.9 billion, 64.3 billion, and 79.5 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, alongside net profits of 19.9 billion, 25.3 billion, and 31.2 billion RMB for the same years [3] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 3,524 million RMB for 2023, with a projected revenue of 4,994 million RMB for 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 41.72% [4] - The net profit for 2023 was 1,452 million RMB, with projections of 1,993 million RMB for 2024, indicating a net profit growth rate of 37.25% [4] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.49 RMB in 2023 to 1.94 RMB in 2024 [4] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 21.98 in 2023 to 20.46 in 2024, indicating improving valuation metrics [4]

投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -24% -18% -13% -7% -1% 5% 汽车 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 邢重阳 SAC 证书编号:S0160522110003 xingcy01@ctsec.com 分析师 李渤 SAC 证书编号:S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《汽车行业周报》 2024-06-25 2. 《汽车行业周报》 2024-06-19 3. 《5 月新能源客车行业洞察》 2024- 06-19 海外需求强劲增长,出口企业有望受益 ❖ 海外需求持续强劲,出口企业有望受益: 1-5 月汽车行业整体产销分别完 成 1138.4 万辆和 1149.6 万辆,同比分别增长 6.5%和 8.3%。分市场来看,1-5 月汽车国内销量 918.7 万辆,同比增长 3.7%,汽车出口 230.8 万辆,同比增长 31.3%,海外市场需求继续保持强劲增长。我们认为海外市场的强劲需求有望 带动出口型乘用车、商用车以及产业链的零部件企业受益。 ❖ 中国品牌乘用车电动化、智能化、高端化趋势不改,份额持续提升利好 中国品牌整车及零部件产业链:1-5 月 ...

投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -23% -17% -11% -5% 1% 7% 食品饮料 沪深300 分析师 吴文德 SAC 证书编号:S0160523090004 wuwd01@ctsec.com 分析师 李茵琦 SAC 证书编号:S0160523020001 liyq03@ctsec.com 分析师 赵婕 SAC 证书编号:S0160523100002 zhaojie@ctsec.com 分析师 任金星 SAC 证书编号:S0160524010001 renjx@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《啤酒行业研究专题报告》 2024- 06-12 2. 《食品饮料 2023&24Q1 财报总结》 2024-05-11 3. 《24Q1 食品饮料基金持仓分析》 2024-04-25 关注超跌+绩优品种 核心观点 ❖ 食品饮料:Q2 淡季需求放缓,短期调整孕育长期机会。进入二季度以来, 无论是高频的数据跟踪,还是茅台的批价表现,均指向二季度需求放缓。 从二季度业绩的前瞻来看,具备渠道和单品红利的公司业绩表现较优,例 如零食、饮料,而与餐饮宴席相关的消费,整体有所承压,例如白酒、啤 酒、餐饮链 ...

投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | 基本数据 | 2024-07-02 | |------------------------|--------------| | 收盘价 ( 元 ) | 170.55 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 2.08 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 31.81 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 3.02 | | 最近 12 月市场表现 | | -47% -37% -26% -15% -5% 6% 爱美客 沪深300 分析师 刘洋 SAC 证书编号:S0160521120001 liuyang01@ctsec.com 联系人 李梦萱 limx@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《Q1 业绩接近预告上沿,增持彰显 长期信心》 2024-04-25 2. 《 Q1 延续快速增长,多元产品矩阵 驱动长期发展》 2024-04-09 3. 《23 年稳定兑现高增,医美龙头持续 精进》 2024-03-20 事件:独家代理 A 型肉毒毒素 Hutox 国内获受理。爱美客注射用 A 型肉 毒毒素于 6 月 27 日正式获国家药监局注册受理,适应症为中重度眉间纹。该 肉毒为韩国药企 Hu ...

| 投资评级 : 增持 | ( 维持 ) | |------------------------|--------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-07-02 | | 收盘价 ( 元 ) | 19.39 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 36.71 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 4.89 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 37.33 | | 最近 12 月市场表现 | | 核心观点 三花智控 沪深300 上证指数 -35% -28% -20% -12% -4% 3% 分析师 邢重阳 SAC 证书编号:S0160522110003 xingcy01@ctsec.com 分析师 李渤 SAC 证书编号:S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《持续拓展业务布局,加快全球化步 伐》 2024-05-04 2. 《汽零业务高增长,业绩符合预期》 2023-05-05 3. 《 1H 业绩高增长,产品力持续向 上 》 2022-08-14 ❖ 事件:公司发 2024 年半年报业绩预告,公司预计 2024 年上半年实现营业收 入 131.55 亿元-144.08 亿元 ...