投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -34% -25% -17% -8% 0% 8% 商贸零售 沪深300 分析师 于健 SAC 证书编号:S0160522060001 yujian@ctsec.com 联系人 王瑾瑜 wangjy03@ctsec.com 联系人 谷亦清 guyq01@ctsec.com 零售板块 2024Q2 业绩前瞻 核心观点 线下零售:百货承压,超市回暖,潮流 IP 零售高景气。1-5 月社零平稳 恢复,线上消费、服务性消费表现更佳,从百货中销售占比较高的服装、黄金 珠宝、化妆品社零数据来看,预计百货二季度仍有一定压力。相较而言,超市 业绩改善预期较强,短期来看,CPI 回升带动同店修复,超市业态社零增速连 续四个月正增长,对 2024Q2 业绩有一定支撑。中长期来看,调改持续推进, 若可以进一步复制,有望带动整体经营质量的提升。从 618 表现来看,"松弛 经济"爆发,潮玩、IP 相关赛道景气度较高。 黄金珠宝:Q2 行业普遍承压,关注头部品牌韧性及 Q3 回暖。4-6 月黄 金价格保持高位波动,叠加 Q2 为黄金珠宝消费淡季,4-5 月金银珠宝零售额 增速跑输社零整体。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, with estimates ranging from 88 million to 95 million yuan, representing a growth of 63.63% to 76.65% [4] - The number of orders continues to grow, driving revenue growth, and the gross profit margin is expected to improve [5] - The company is focusing on securing contracts with leading domestic clients in the new energy vehicle sector and is advancing capacity construction [6] - The forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 210 million, 255 million, and 309 million yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20.23, 16.60, and 13.71 [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of 88 million to 95 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 63.63% to 76.65% [4] - The second quarter of 2024 is projected to yield a net profit of 36.05 million to 43.05 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 54% to 84% [4] Revenue and Orders - As of May 2024, the company has secured new projects that equal the total projects undertaken in 2023, with plans to undertake approximately 200% of the total projects from 2023 in 2024 [5] - The company is set to supply exclusive products for several new energy vehicle models, which are expected to enter mass production this year [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to lock in contracts with top-tier domestic automakers and is accelerating the introduction of advanced production and R&D equipment [6] - A plan is in place to establish 2.5 billion yuan in advanced production capacity within three years to support future business growth [6] Profit Forecast - The projected revenues for 2024 to 2026 are 1.28 billion, 1.50 billion, and 1.77 billion yuan respectively, with net profit growth rates of 38.73%, 21.87%, and 21.10% [8]

投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 基础化工 沪深300 上证指数 -29% -23% -16% -10% -3% 3% 分析师 毕春晖 SAC 证书编号:S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com 联系人 梅宇鑫 meiyx@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《化工行业周报》 2024-06-25 2. 《化工行业周报》 2024-06-18 3. 《化工行业周报》 2024-06-13 核心观点 维生素价格上涨,制冷剂价格价差上涨 ❖ 本周行情:本周市场综合指数整体下行,上证综指报收 2967.40,本周下跌 1.03%,深证指数本周下跌 2.38%,A 股指数下跌 1.02%;其中化工板块下跌 2.57%。 ❖ 化工公司行情:本周涨幅前五的股票为:唯科科技(+7.85%)、巨化股份 (+7.29%)、华信新材(+6.77%)、和顺科技(+6.18%)、宝丰能源(+6.12%)。 本周跌幅前五的股票为:新纶新材(-22.09%)、坤彩科技(-16.48%)、鼎际得 (-14.65%)、赤天化(-12.78%)、南京化纤(-12.50%)。 ❖ 化工品行情:本周涨幅前五的化工品 ...

投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 房地产开发 沪深300 上证指数 单击或点击此处输入文字。 6 -33% -23% -13% -4% 6% 15% 分析师 毕春晖 SAC 证书编号:S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com 联系人 欧阳之光 oyzg@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《房地产行业周报(2024 年第 25 周)》 2024-06-26 2. 《房地产行业周报(2024 年第 24 周)》 2024-06-17 3. 《房地产行业周报(2024 年第 22 周)》 2024-06-03 核心观点 ❖ 本周板块回顾:本周申万房地产指数下跌 4.75%,沪深 300 指数较上周下 跌 0.97%,板块跑输沪深 300 指数 3.78pct,在 31 个板块中排第 31 位。 ❖ 行业数据回顾:本周 30 大中城市商品房成交面积 273 万平米,环比+22.6%, 同比-24.3%。细分城市能级来看,30 大中城市中,一线城市商品房成交面积 80 万平米,环比+34.3%,同比-16.1%;二线城市商品房成交面积 130 万平 米,环比+13.0%,同比-34.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the company, with a target price of 37.45 RMB per share [14] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the global commercial vehicle intelligence sector, with a strong presence in fleet video management systems, ranking first globally in 2023 [25] - The company's revenue and net profit are expected to grow significantly, with projected revenues of 2.16 billion, 2.76 billion, and 3.50 billion RMB for 2024-2026, and net profits of 203 million, 277 million, and 378 million RMB, respectively [18] - The company's overseas expansion, particularly in Europe, is expected to drive growth, with new regulations in the EU creating a market demand of approximately 500,000 sets of intelligent solutions annually, worth 1-1.5 billion USD [17][78] Business Overview - The company operates in four main business segments: transportation (freight, logistics, fleet operators), travel (public transport, taxis, school buses), pre-installation, and innovation [25] - In 2023, the transportation segment contributed 708 million RMB in revenue with a gross margin of 47.84%, while the travel segment contributed 674 million RMB with a gross margin of 47.87% [54][37] - The company's innovation business, focusing on low-speed autonomous driving and mining safety, generated 62 million RMB in revenue in 2023 [37] Global Expansion - The company has established a fully automated smart manufacturing factory in Vietnam, which began operations in 2023 and is expected to produce all products for major European and American markets by the end of 2024 [3] - Overseas revenue accounted for 59.38% of total revenue in 2023, with significant growth in Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America [57] - The company has 8 subsidiaries and 8 offices overseas, with a local employee ratio exceeding 30% in overseas regions [57] Technology and Product Development - The company's products are based on AI, IoT, and big data technologies, offering solutions for freight, public transport, taxis, and school buses [64] - Key products include in-vehicle monitoring systems, AI-based driver behavior monitoring, and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) [65] - The company has developed a three-tier R&D architecture, with a technology platform reuse rate exceeding 80%, leading to improved R&D efficiency [59] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 27.2% from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins improving from 44.8% in 2024 to 46.8% in 2026 [82] - The transportation and travel segments are expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% and 29%, respectively, driven by overseas demand [106] - The company's expense ratio is projected to decline, with sales and management expense ratios expected to decrease to 10.5% by 2026 [83] Market Opportunities - The global commercial vehicle intelligence market is estimated to be worth 27 billion USD, with the company well-positioned to capture a significant share due to its advanced product offerings [99] - The EU's Vision Zero initiative and new safety regulations are expected to create substantial demand for the company's products, particularly in Europe [77][78]

本次会议紧面向财通证券的受邀嘉宾在任何情况下财通证券研究人员及演讲嘉宾所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议 投资者应充分了解各类投资风险自主做出决策并自行承担投资风险未经财通证券及演讲嘉宾书面授权许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式转发复制引用会议的内容与观点包括不得制作镜像及指向链接不得传播音频视频图片文字等内容如有上述行为财通证券保留追究相关方法律责任的权利 各位亲爱的投资者大家早上好我们今天采用证券七月金股是云德时代浙江鼎立巨子生物互电股份比功能科东棚饮料福瑞股份顾家家居温氏股份江苏银行那么首先有请我们策略的资深分析员张恩生老师来汇报一下策略的观点 各位领导大家早上好我来汇报一下特别观点我们下半年整体来看是指数可能随后会出现一个上升的行情那方向上来看整个成长应该会领跑于市场短期位置这个位置上在上周的时候我们看到了市场的情绪它包括整个指数的一个点位都是到了一个历史无论是历史的水平还是说今年的水平都是到了一个极低水位所以在这个位置之上其实可以更乐观一些也是 布局下半年的一个好时间点那么结果上来看的话我们觉得整个成长会领跑因为在过去几年我们看到枫叶偏好下的比较快所以成长的溢价也压制的比较低那下半年的话成长具备极 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the social services and luxury consumption sector [1] Core Views - The trend of experiential luxury consumption is favorable, while the personal luxury market is under pressure [1] - LVMH Group's acquisition of Chez L'Ami Louis aligns with the shift towards experiential luxury and serves as a hedge against declining wine sales [2][10][11] - The global luxury market reached a record size of over 1.5 trillion euros in Q1 2024, with experiential luxury outperforming personal luxury [3][12] Industry Dynamics LVMH's Strategic Moves - LVMH acquired Chez L'Ami Louis, a historic Parisian bistro, to enhance its experiential luxury portfolio [2][10] - The acquisition aligns with LVMH's strategy to diversify into high-end tourism and hospitality [10] - LVMH's wine and spirits division saw a 16% YoY decline in Q1 2024, prompting the move into experiential dining [11] Personal Luxury Market Trends - The personal luxury market is expected to contract by 1-3% in Q1 2024 due to macroeconomic pressures and shifting consumer preferences [3][12] - Jewelry and small luxury items are leading growth, while footwear shows signs of slowing [3][13] - Europe and Japan show resilience, while China and the US face challenges [3][13] Industry Data Luxury Sales Performance - LVMH's revenue grew by 3% YoY in Q1 2024, while Kering's revenue declined by 10% [20] - Hermès and Moncler reported strong growth of 17% and 16% respectively in Q1 2024 [20] - Prada's revenue grew by 17% in Q1 2024, maintaining consistent performance [20] E-commerce Performance - In May 2024, luxury brand sales on Tmall declined by 11% YoY, with 12 out of 17 tracked brands showing negative growth [21] - Valentino, Van Cleef & Arpels, and Balenciaga were among the few brands with positive sales growth on Tmall [21][22] Swiss Watch Exports - Swiss watch exports fell by 2.1% YoY in May 2024, with exports to Greater China (Hong Kong and Mainland) declining by 22.7% and 18% respectively [4][26] - Compared to 2019 levels, Swiss watch exports to the US grew by 72.9%, while exports to Hong Kong and Mainland China declined by 35.5% and 13.3% respectively [26][27]

投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -28% -21% -15% -8% -2% 5% 轻工制造 沪深300 分析师 吕明璋 SAC 证书编号:S0160523030001 lvmz@ctsec.com 联系人 何栋 hedong@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《北京楼市新政落地,关注政策效果 释放》 2024-07-01 2. 《一线城市楼市新政均落地,关注相 关轻工转债》 2024-06-30 3. 《5 月家具社零增速提升,FDA 首次 批准薄荷醇电子烟》 2024-06-24 核心观点 2024 年 5 月家具出口延续改善,床垫、保温杯出口较优。据海关数据, 2024 年 5 月家具及其零件出口额 62.4 亿美元,同比+18.1%(前值+8.7%),延 续改善态势。2024 年前 5 月家具及其零件出口额 299.2 亿美元,同比+16.6%。 各品类来看,5 月弹簧/乳胶床垫出口额分别同比+44.5%/+15.1%,弹簧床垫、 乳胶床垫增速均有所提升;5 月木框架/金属框架沙发出口额分别同比-13.7%/- 21.8%,降幅均有所收窄;5 月 PVC 地板、不锈钢保温杯出口额分别 ...

投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 农林牧渔 沪深300 分析师 余剑秋 SAC 证书编号:S0160522050003 yujq01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《猪价短期调整不改上行趋势,持续 看好生猪养殖》 2024-06-30 2. 《产能恢复偏慢,猪价短期调整不改 上行趋势》 2024-06-23 3. 《猪价震荡向上,继续看好养殖板块》 2024-06-20 核心观点 农林牧渔行业中报业绩前瞻 ❖ 生猪养殖:2024Q2 养殖企业整体扭亏为盈。1)猪价格周期反转,5 月起逐 步进入上行周期。2024 年 4 月/5 月生猪均价为 15.35/15.59 元/kg,同比 +4.3%/+7.2%。2)产能回补较慢,上行周期延续时间有望超预期:依据农业农 村部,2024 年 5 月,能繁母猪存栏环比+0.2%。3)2024Q2 起,企业出栏量同 比整体转负,供应压力逐步缓解:依据 15 家上市公司公告,2024 年 4-5 月合 计出栏 2464 万头,同比-0.3%。4)受益于猪价上行、饲料原料价格的回落及 降本增效举措的推进,上市 ...

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