22 December 2024 | 6:15PM EST Natural Gas: Q&A on US-Europe LNG Trade n The data show that the US is already the largest single supplier of LNG to Europe, as well as the leading source of LNG supply growth to the region, based on publicly available contracts. n The potential for Russian LNG imports into the EU to be fully replaced with US LNG, as suggested by EU Commission officials, while physically possible, would likely increase market freight costs and potentially lead to higher European prices to motiv ...

Premier Li Qiang stresses the importance of technology innovation and pledges more access and services to foreign enterprises; The draft law on private sector promotion has submitted to top legislature for preliminary review; Alibaba officially started its operations in Morocco... See our latest research on Barclays Live. Government/Industry News • Premier Li Qiang stresses the importance of technology innovation and pledges more access and services to foreign enterprises: According to gov.cn, Premier Li Qi ...

然后上周的这个传染性价大概是在15.75元每公斤上周也是一个这个烟辣进入高峰期的一个时点吧然后整体来看这个从过去端来看我们从这个11月看的话是养殖端的这个鸭卵侵蚀是 然后近期来看的话供应端还是集团这边出来是比较正常的散户这边的话出来还是积极性比较高整个市场的供应量还是比较充足的然后需求端烟辣进入到一个高峰期然后东智这边备货也有一定的影响整个带动了投载体的开工率有比较明显的提升然后整个终端的走货情况也有比较明显的一个好转 然后度假的话也是有一个小幅的一个反弹当然这个反弹的势头并不是非常的猛烈然后随着这个冬至这个过去这个后续我们觉得可能还是会出现一定的这个偏弱的一个调整然后屠宰抗日在近期也是出现了一个比较明显的一个上涨虽然说同比还是 从当年的具体数据来看区域性的是北方和东北大区有所回调其他基本上是稳中有涨的情况主要来讲的话还是东北一起局部的区域 当然这个扩产的这个幅度也是比较有限的北方区域进入12月份像这个气温的逐步的一个降低包括这个调运包括人员流动的一个增强这个疫病的这个趋势还是可能会对这个产能造成进一步的一个扰动我们觉得可能12月份的这个存欄来讲的话可能这个恢复的这个趋势会有一定的一个波动 好的各位投资者朋友 ...

Nvidia's Christmas Present: GB00 & B00 Reasoning nference, Amazon, Memory,Suppy Chain //Backwe Deays, Microsoft Orders, GB00 BOM, Nvidia Gross Margin, ConnectX8, VRMs, Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix, Wistron, F Foxconn, Aspeed, Axiado Nvidia 的圣诞礼物：GB00 和 B00 推理推断，亚马逊，内存，供应链 Backwe 延迟，微软订单，GB00 BOM，Nvidia 毛利率，ConnectX-8，VRM，镁光，三星，SK 海力士，纬创，F 富士康，Aspeed，Axiado minutes 分钟 By , and 由迪伦·帕特尔、迈伦·谢和丹尼尔·尼什博尔撰写 Dyan Pate Myron Xie Danie Nishba Aug 0, 202 202 年 8 月 日 Dyan Pate, Wega Chu, Danie Nishba , Myron Xie, Chaoien T ...

调研纪要CH 已关注 Patrick Chen / 陈雅青 本营分析师 简介:覆盖Global Tech，高性能计算和大模型，通信设备，AI应用（游戏及其他），半导体设备，模拟芯片，汽车电子 （IGBT，SiC和其他），晶圆代工厂，智能手机供应链，IoT供应链（MR/VR及其他） 结构，需求较高？ 专家：目前AWS的Trainium2已经正式拉货。一年要拉150万张左右的卡，这些都会优选AEC，更便宜。但是速率 上，基于算力抵不上一张H100卡，所以不需要非用800G的AEC，当然后续AWS也会升级到800G AEC，但目前采 购的情况是，基于很多交换机网卡主要端口都是400G，而且Trainium2算力400G有光模块，所以用400G AEC去连 也够，明年底还会有Trainium3，可能届时800G会慢慢上来，所以他确实是400G用得多。对于微软，100G用的也 多，基于老传统数据中心在采购，但没有增量，AI部分，目前微软也自建网络，然后大量买英伟达的卡，而英伟达 的卡原来配800G AOC，而现在选择更有性价比的800G AEC，所以微软买的是英伟达的卡，性能较高，所以会更 早上800G。 专家：谷歌其 ...

Key Points Industry and Company 1. **Industry Focus**: The research focuses on the AEC (Active Electrical Connector) market, specifically exploring the supply chain opportunities, competition landscape, market share, value, and technological barriers within the AEC, line materials, and retimer sectors. 2. **Companies in Focus**: The research highlights several key players in the industry, including Credo, 兆龙互连 (Meg龙互连), 博创 (BoChuang), 新易盛 (XinYiSheng), and others. Core Views and Arguments 1. **Market Growth**: The AEC market is expected to see significant growth over the next few years, with a projected increase from $300 million to $1.8 billion in size within 3-4 years. 2. **Entry Barriers**: The research suggests that the entry barriers for domestic manufacturers in the AEC market are relatively low, primarily due to the availability of Retimer chips and the simpler assembly process compared to optical modules. 3. **Competition**: The competition within the AEC market is intensifying, with new players entering the market, such as Marvell, which has recently started focusing on this sector and offering Retimer chips. 4. **Supply Chain**: The supply chain for AEC components, including Retimer chips and copper cables, is becoming more accessible, with domestic manufacturers like Leiting and Wolong Nuclear Materials entering the market. Other Important Content 1. **Credo's Market Position**: Credo has a significant market share in the AEC market, primarily due to its vertical integration from chips to modules and its early entry into the market. 2. **Technological Advancements**: The research highlights the technological advancements in Retimer chips and copper cables, which are crucial for the performance and cost-effectiveness of AEC products. 3. **Market Dynamics**: The research provides insights into the market dynamics of the AEC industry, including customer segments, order volumes, and future market share and pricing expectations.

2025 年海外经济与资产展望:动荡伊始 20241224 摘要 歌据加V：shuinu9870 全球供应链重塑,新兴市场(如印度、越南)股市表现良好,未来几年增 速预计在 6%左右;中国在海外投资持续增加,推动全球产业链重塑。 -手调研纪要和研辑 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 特朗普回归后的政策组合主要包括减税和加征关税。预计这些政策在 2025 年内 | | | 的影响可能不够明显,美国经济将继续沿着预定轨道,迈向软着陆状态。美联储 | | | 预计将在明年进行2至3次加息。特朗普圭任后,第一天可能通过行政令发布多 | | 更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪委 关注公众号:水木纪受 2025 年欧洲和日本经济都将有一定的复苏空间,但面临不同的货币政策周期。 欧元区处于降息周期,而日本则处于货币政策正常化,加息周期。尽管如此,两 者都面临不少挑战,尤其是来自美国关税风险。因此,我们预计欧洲和日本的货 币政策行动将较为审慎。 全球政治 ...

PEEK 材料、飞行汽车站上风口 20241224 政策利好驱动市场强势反弹,财政部会议释放积极信号,包括提高财政赤 字率、 收盘价接近 3,400点。 低空经济发展带动相关产业链,飞行汽车、电动垂直起降航空器等发展, 刺激对先进材料(如固态电池、特种工程塑料)和相关技术的需求,带来 新的投资机会。 市场情绪修复回暖，31个运/钢行业全面上涨，近 4,000 只个股上涨，但 成交额萎缩至 1. 3万亿,换手率需关注,维持在 1.5%以上则无需过度担 忧。 《调研究安》 当前时间窗口利好多头,自12月10日以来已超过100个自然日,底部震 荡筑底过程中,不同周期增速震荡行情带来市场转机,但板块分化明显。 财政政策重点支持扩大内需、提升消费和科技创新,家电、消费电子、科 技相关行业将受益,未来财政政策还将关注民生、区域融合发展等领域。 AR/AI、高端制造、互联网电商等板块表现突出,受益于政策支持和技术 发展,例如铜缆高速连接器、人形机器人等领域。 红利资产如银行股持续上涨,券商板块也表现强劲,受益于市场回暖和经 纪业务恢复,但需关注 IPO 政策变化和财报预告。 蛋框数据加V：shuinu9870 - 蓝框数据 ...

芦哲：杠杆率和经济刺激——平衡的艺术 20241224 更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪委 关注公众号:水木纪委 中国中央政府杠杆率为21.5%,在 IMF 统计的15个国家和地区中处于全球后 10%, 低于 90%的国家,有较大的加杠杆空间。截至 24年第三季度,中国整体政府杠 杆率为60%,其中34%来自地方政府,其余来自中央政府。从2004年以来,中央 政府杠杆率一直缓慢下滑,到2020年才超过 04年的高点,目前接近 26%。无论 与他国还是自身相比,中国具备充足的财政刺激空间。 更多一手1 版加V: shuinu9870 在财政扩张过程中如何平衡经济刺激与风险控制? 经济刺激与愤多风险之间的平衡是一门艺术,既需要足够的增长来防止经济失难,手调研究会和歌词 又不能过度依赖杠杆率，以免带来政策的不确定地面临加与中国一十一 又不能过度依赖杠杆率,以免带来政策的不确定性和短期内过高的债务风险。历 史上,例如 2012-2013年的欧债危机,就是由于过度扩张导致的心因此,虽然扩 张有空间且相对安全,但必须注重节奏和速度。 货币政策在配合财政政策方面非常重要。在基础货币投放方式上,中国经历了三 个阶段:12年以 ...

Key Points Industry and Company Involved * **Industry**: Biopharmaceutical industry * **Company**: Not specified Core Views and Arguments 1. **Emerging Trends in the Biopharmaceutical Industry**: * **Commercial Insurance as a Key Driver**: The development of commercial insurance is seen as a significant signal for the transformation of the industry from payment to financing end. It is expected to improve the payment environment for innovative medical devices and expand the supply of high-end medical services. The breakthrough in the development of commercial medical insurance is expected in 2025, marking a core policy shift in the pharmaceutical industry. [doc id='1'][doc id='2'] * **Manufacturing Advantage and Engineer Redundancy**: The manufacturing advantage and engineer redundancy in China are expected to make the country a global center for high-cost-performance manufacturing. [doc id='1'] * **Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry Innovation**: The domestic pharmaceutical industry's innovation capabilities have been relatively mature and are expected to achieve global high-end market monetization. [doc id='1'][doc id='2'] * **Balanced Supply and Demand**: After the capital retreat, balanced supply and demand will enable the value of the industry to be reflected, and a large number of new companies will be born with the help of capital. [doc id='2'] * **Pharmaceutical Industry Sub-sectors**: The performance and valuation of pharmaceutical companies are expected to improve from the second half of 2024. [doc id='9'] * **Retail Pharmacy**: The optimization of retail pharmacy supply and the improvement of consumer power are key to breaking the deadlock. The long-term growth of retail pharmacies is driven by the outflow of prescriptions and the increase in industry concentration. [doc id='9'] * **Traditional Chinese Medicine**: Focus on the progress of international reform, the adjustment of the medical insurance catalog, and the changes in the operating cycle of enterprises. [doc id='9'] * **Medical Aesthetics**: The overall medical aesthetics industry is driven by the outflow of prescriptions and the excess supply of the industry. [doc id='9'] * **CXO Industry**: The domestic CXO industry has demonstrated strong cost and capacity advantages. [doc id='9'] * **Innovation Drug Industry**: The development of commercial medical insurance will create new channels and development space for the innovation drug industry. [doc id='11'][doc id='12'] * **Global Market**: The domestic pharmaceutical industry has entered a new round of innovation product cycle after the PT1 antibody. Innovation and internationalization have become the main theme of the industry. [doc id='13'] * **Chemical Synthesis**: The chemical synthesis capabilities of Chinese CMO companies are improving. [doc id='14'] * **New Business Opportunities**: The adjustment of the industry has brought new opportunities for the development of pharmaceutical companies. [doc id='15'] 2. **Multiple Cycles Resonance**: * **Macroeconomic Environment**: The macroeconomic environment affects the overall operating environment of the industry through government fiscal policy and basic medical insurance financing. [doc id='1'] * **International and Domestic Industry Environment**: Changes in the international and domestic industry environment have prompted enterprises to adjust their investment direction, and different enterprises have different input-output cycles, and the industry is in a period of accumulation. [doc id='1'] * **International Payment Environment**: The clear incidence of diseases and the promotion of payment boundaries will promote the construction of a stable and predictable market environment for innovation. [doc id='1'] * **Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry Innovation**: The domestic pharmaceutical industry's innovation capabilities have been relatively mature and are expected to achieve global high-end market monetization. [doc id='1'] 3. **Basic Medical Insurance System**: * **Four Reforms**: The basic medical insurance system is promoting four reforms to achieve flexible treatment and new medical insurance. [doc id='3'] * **Medicare Negotiation**: The overall negotiation rules determine the pricing system of innovative drugs under the national medical insurance system. [doc id='3'] * **Pharmaceutical Product Price Formation Mechanism**: The National Medical Insurance Administration has gradually relaxed the pricing system for innovative drugs and innovative medical devices since its establishment in 2018. [doc id='6'] * **Payment Methods**: The reform of payment methods, such as DRG and DIP, is expected to further improve the compatibility with innovation. [doc id='5'] * **Medical Service Price Reform**: The reform of medical service prices is expected to further improve the efficiency of medical insurance fund use and the rational allocation of medical resources. [doc id='5'] 4. **Capital Market**: * **Capital Market Cooling**: The global capital market has entered a cooling period due to the impact of the epidemic, inflation, and expectations for the future. [doc id='1'][doc id='6'] * **IPO Market**: The IPO market has experienced a downturn in the past few years. [doc id='7'] * **Investment Trends**: The investment trend has shifted from the United States to China, and the proportion of domestic investors has increased. [doc id='7'] * **Investment in Emerging Fields**: Investment in emerging fields such as globalization and new directions is increasing. [doc id='7'] 5. **Policy and Market Changes**: * **Establishment of Expansion Edition**: The establishment of the expansion edition of the system and the implementation of comprehensive registration system. [doc id='7'] * **Capital Structure Changes**: The proportion of USD funds seeking to go abroad is decreasing, and the proportion of RMB investment is increasing. [doc id='7'] * **Investment in Different Rounds**: The proportion of investment in C-round and pre-IPO rounds has increased. [doc id='7'] * **IPO Trend**: The IPO trend in Hong Kong and China is similar. [doc id='7'] * **Impact of Policies and Market Changes**: The global macro environment, the slowdown in economic growth after the epidemic, and the impact of policies and market changes have affected the pharmaceutical industry. [doc id='7'] * **Enterprise Investment Rhythm**: Enterprises have increased their investment during the capital boom period, and the industry is still experiencing a process of industrial restructuring. [doc id='7']