洪灏-剖析中国股市反弹的三大驱动力 20250209 摘要 Q&A 目前中国市场的表现如何？有哪些因素影响了市场行情？ 春节期间的市场表现较为积极，自 1 月下旬开始上涨。我们认为至少有三个因 素推动了这一趋势。首先，关税的发展符合或好于预期。其次，DC 的成功带动 了整体中国市场投资气氛有所改善。第三，市场对 3 月会议政策的预期升温。 特朗普政府对关税政策的态度如何？这对中国市场有何影响？ 特朗普政府在关税问题上的立场反复无常。例如，他在上任初期并未提及关税， 但随后暗示可能对中国、加拿大和莫斯科征收关税，并最终宣布对中国征收 10%的关税，对加拿大和莫斯科征收 25%的关税。然而，他又表示可以暂缓一个 月执行加拿大和莫斯科的关税。这种反复使得投资者难以预测并跟随消息进行 交易，中国股票市场对此类坏消息虽有反应，但通常只持续一天。 • 特朗普政府对关税政策的态度反复，初期未提及，后宣布对中国商品征收 关税，虽有暂缓，但增加了市场的不确定性，中国股市对此类消息的反应 通常较为短暂。 • 当前中美贸易谈判前景较 2018 年乐观，双方达成第二阶段贸易协定的概率 较大，主要因为中方在技术上有所突破，且特朗普政府 ...

中国人工智能（AI）企业深度求索（DeepSeek）发布的开源大模型DeepSeek- R1持续引发海内外热议。据DeepSeek称，该模型榜单测试成绩与美国行业巨头 OpenAI于2024年12月正式上线的o1模型相似，在某些方面甚至表现更好，但是， 其推理定价仅约为后者的五十分之一至二十五分之一。此前，DeepSeek发布的开源 大模型DeepSeek-V3已凭借极低的大模型训练价格受到国内外AI产业界热议。对一 家名不见经传的中国AI企业来说，取得这样的成绩是了不起的。国外同行对 DeepSeek异军突起也不吝赞美之词。在刚刚过去的春节假期里，DeepSeek爆 火"出圈"，不少国人感到欢欣鼓舞。 值得注意的是，从DeepSeek的优异表现中可以看到，在AI大模型开闭源之争 中，开源模型正在赶超闭源模型。图灵奖得主、主导Meta AI研究的首席科学家杨立 2 1 财新观察｜AI竞争以开源促开放 CAIXIN| 听文章 0:00 / 5:36 昆（Yann LeCun）对此解读称："DeepSeek得益于开源研究和开源项目（例如 PyTorch和Llama）。他们在他人工作的基础上提出了新想法并进行了构建 ...

Summary of Weichai Power Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Weichai Power - **Industry**: Heavy-Duty Truck (HDT) and Engine Manufacturing Key Points and Arguments Stock Performance - Weichai's stock has shown a positive shift in 2025, with H-shares up 8% and A-shares up 2% year-to-date, reversing the negative trend of 2024 where H-shares fell by 9% and A-shares remained flat [2][4] Heavy-Duty Truck (HDT) Market Outlook - The outlook for HDT demand is optimistic, driven by China's trade-in initiatives, despite a 28% year-over-year decline in January 2025 HDT sales to 70,000 units due to early Lunar New Year effects [2][8] - Anticipation of improved sales in February 2025 is supported by a stable outlook for the year, aided by the newly announced China IV trade-in policy aimed at reducing emissions [2][4] Large-Bore Engine Expansion - Weichai is strategically expanding in large-bore engines, which is expected to enhance its presence in the data center sector, addressing the growing power demand [3][9] - The company sold 6,000 units of large-bore engines in the first nine months of 2024, with a 15% increase in average selling price, although volume growth fell short of the annual target [9] KION's Performance - Weichai's German subsidiary, KION, reported strong 4Q24 results, with a 15% increase in share price over the past month, driven by robust performance and new initiatives with Nvidia [4][8] - KION's restructuring plan aims for cost savings of €140-160 million by 2026, which is expected to positively impact Weichai [4][8] Valuation and Investment Thesis - Weichai is rated Overweight with a price target of HK$19.00 for H-shares and Rmb21.00 for A-shares, based on discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation [6][15] - The company has a dividend yield of approximately 6%, supported by ongoing initiatives to enhance shareholder returns [4][15] Risks to Outlook - Key risks include a slower-than-expected recovery in HDT sales, weaker market-share gains, and underperformance of KION [14][16] LNG Truck Market - LNG truck sales in January 2025 saw only a 4% year-over-year decrease, indicating a positive trend with a domestic penetration rate rising to 22% from 19% a year ago [8] Additional Important Insights - The early timing of the Lunar New Year has distorted sales data, and the decline in January HDT sales is not considered meaningful in isolation [8] - Weichai's strategic initiatives across hydrogen fuel cells, hydraulic components, and excavator engines are gaining traction, indicating a diversified growth strategy [13][15] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Weichai Power conference call, highlighting the company's performance, market outlook, strategic initiatives, and associated risks.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China-US Cross-Border E-commerce and Air Freight - **Context**: The discussion revolves around the potential risks and dynamics affecting the growth of cross-border e-commerce between China and the US, particularly in light of increased taxes on small parcels shipped from China to the US [2][8]. Core Insights - **Downside Risks**: There are concerns regarding a potential decline in demand for cross-border e-commerce, which could revert to pre-COVID levels. This scenario poses risks to earnings for various companies involved in logistics and air freight [2][8]. - **Air Freight Rates**: The air freight market may not experience a down-cycle due to persistent capacity bottlenecks in long-haul freighters. If demand growth merely slows rather than declines, air freight rates could remain high or even increase [4][8]. - **Earnings Impact**: In a bear case scenario, companies like JD Logistics (JDL), Cathay Pacific (CPA), China Southern Airlines (CSA), and SF Express (SF) could see significant cuts to their projected net profits (NP): - JDL: over 20% cuts to 2025-2026 NP due to exposure to Kuayue - Cathay: likely over 15% cuts to 2025-2026 NP from lower air freight profits - CSA: over 15% cut to 2026 NP, but the bullish thesis remains intact based on passenger business recovery - SF: less than 5% cuts to 2025-2026 NP from freight forwarding exposure [8]. Additional Considerations - **Market Dynamics**: The US is not the only market for China's cross-border e-commerce, as China-Europe trade has also contributed significantly to air freight demand growth in the past two years [8]. - **Valuation Methodology**: - JD Logistics: Probability-weighted DCF valuation with 15% bull case, 70% base case, and 15% bear case, reflecting macro headwinds and dependence on its parent group [15]. - Cathay Pacific: Probability-weighted P/B ratios with a bull case of 10% probability for faster global travel recovery and a bear case of 10% for delayed recovery [10]. - China Southern Airlines: Similar probability-weighted P/B ratios with a bull case of 20% probability for faster earnings recovery due to industry capacity discipline [11]. Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: - Stronger-than-expected recovery in leisure/business passenger demand - Better-than-expected cargo profits driven by robust cross-border e-commerce demand [12][19]. - **Downside Risks**: - Weaker-than-expected travel demand - Increased competition in the passenger business - Higher operational costs due to rising fuel prices [12][19]. Conclusion - The conference call highlighted significant concerns regarding the future of China-US cross-border e-commerce and its implications for air freight rates and logistics companies. The potential for earnings cuts across major players in the industry underscores the need for careful monitoring of market dynamics and regulatory changes affecting cross-border trade.

February 5, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific Positions of Active Long-only Managers in China/HK Chinese equities continued to show outflow from foreign funds in January 2025, though at a slower pace vs. December 2024. Passive funds had US$0.7bn outflows and active funds had US $1.7bn outflows. EM LOs added underweights in China to 2.9ppt. Foreign domiciled funds flow: Chinese domestic funds flow: Short interest ( Exhibit 14 , Exhibit 15 ): M Update Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Chloe Li ...

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Credit Research 05 February 2025 What we learned from meetings with 30 EM corporate investors Cautiously constructive; OW HY but shying away from riskier names; A 'carry-year' ahead We met/spoke with ~30 EM corporate credit investors (mostly real money, some fast, mostly dedicated, some cross-over / opportunistic) in London and US over the past 2 weeks with respect to CEEMEA credits. Key takeaways Investors remain generally constructive and engaged, but more defensively positioned Spr ...

February 5, 2025 07:50 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Japan Energy & Utilities: Industry View In-Line Focus in 2025: 1) earnings outlook, 2) changes in management stances, 3) the Japanese government's Seventh Basic Energy Plan and the new GHG emissions target. Key Takeaways Related report: Japan Energy & Utilities Industry: P/B Enhancement Plans (Jan 2025) (9 Jan 2025) Next (7th) Strategic Energy Plan Draft Calls for Making Most of Renewables and Nuclear Power (18 Dec 2024) Japan's Nuclear Reboot (11 Oct 20 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Memory Market**, particularly the impact of **DeepSeek's R1 model** on the demand for AI hardware in data centers and the overall memory sector dynamics [2][51]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Dynamics**: - The memory sector has experienced an **11% decline** in average share prices over the last two weeks, compared to a **9% decline** in the SOX index [2]. - Concerns about a slowdown in GPU demand are prevalent, but the report emphasizes the growth potential from **edge-AI migration** and the **AI ASIC market** [2]. 2. **Demand Projections**: - The report anticipates a **25% to 40% adoption rate** for edge AI in PCs and smartphones by 2026, with a potential **220%+ upside** in edge-AI bit demand, translating to a **20% increase** in global DRAM Total Addressable Market (TAM) [2][10]. - The inference demand for HBM is expected to be limited, with more upside potential for conventional DRAM due to the low attach rate of HBM for inference ASIC chips [2]. 3. **Supply and Demand Analysis**: - A **10% decline** in HBM demand could lead to a **2.5% surplus** in ex-HBM bit supply, indicating that the HBM market remains tight despite concerns of oversupply [9][18]. - The report suggests that **20% weaker demand** could result in a significant oversupply scenario, necessitating a reallocation of HBM wafer inputs [18]. 4. **CSP Capex Outlook**: - Major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) like Microsoft and Alphabet reported strong growth in their datacenter divisions, with capex guidance raised to **US$80 billion** and **US$75 billion** respectively for FY25 [51]. - Despite concerns about AI infrastructure spending, CSPs are expected to continue investing heavily in data clusters [51]. 5. **Competitive Landscape**: - The competition among memory makers is intensifying with the introduction of **GDDR7** and **LPDDR6**, which promise higher speeds and improved efficiency [25]. - Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are all expected to begin mass production of GDDR7 memory modules in **1Q25**, highlighting the competitive nature of the market [25]. 6. **Investment Recommendations**: - The report recommends investors to focus on the **NVDA-centric supply chain** and highlights **SK Hynix** as a preferred pick in the Asian memory space [2]. - Investors are advised to consider edge AI proxies and key players in the Apple supply chain for potential growth opportunities [55]. Other Important Insights - The report notes that **ASICs** are expected to become a larger driver of HBM demand in the long term, although short-term visibility remains stronger for merchant GPUs [36]. - The memory sector's performance has been lackluster, with an average decline of **10%** over the past three months, attributed to macro risks and the impact of DeepSeek [51]. - The report anticipates volatility in memory stock prices in the near term as investors adjust their earnings growth expectations [55]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the memory market and its dynamics, particularly in relation to AI and edge computing trends.

February 5, 2025 06:22 AM GMT Multipolar World Tariffs and Trade Protectionism: Our 'One-Stop-Shop' Playbook Given the developing news flow around tariffs, we have created a consolidated, global playbook for investors that provides analyses, and stock assessments across sectors. Key Takeaways Over the weekend, President Trump and his administration imposed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China (see fact sheet here). President Trump stated that until the crisis/extraordinary threat is alleviated, ...

5 February 2025 U.S. Autos & Auto Parts US Autos: Tariffs are terrible - Did the market get it right? Daniel Roeska +1 917 344 8577 daniel.roeska@bernsteinsg.com Christopher Gray +1 917 344 8308 christopher.gray@bernsteinsg.com Joseph Han +1 917 344 8571 joseph.han@bernsteinsg.com On Monday, auto stocks reacted to the news President Trump was adding 25% tariffs to Mexico and Canada and traded down by up to 8%. Later on Monday, President Trump announced a 30-day delay of the tariffs until March 4th, and on T ...