相关研究报告 《贵州茅台》20240429 《贵州茅台》20240407 《贵州茅台》20240103 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 食品饮料：白酒Ⅱ 证券分析师：邓天娇 (8610)66229391 tianjiao.deng@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519080002 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | 年结日： 12 月 31 日 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 主营收入 ( 人民币 百万 ) | 124,100 | 147,694 | 171,480 | 193,160 | 213,291 | | 增长率 (%) | 16.9 | 19.0 | 16.1 | 12.6 | 10.4 | | EBITDA( 人民币 百万 ) | 84,739 | 101,032 | 119,25 ...

002340.SZ 格林美 688198.SH 佰仁医疗 688085.SH 三友医疗 600809.SH 山西汾酒 000524.SZ 岭南控股 002600.SZ 领益智造 002475.SZ 立讯精密 【宏观经济】7 月通胀点评*张晓娇 朱启兵。7 月 CPI 同比增速较 6 月上行， 主要是受天气影响了食品价格和暑期出游消费两方面影响，这两个因素预计 仍将在三季度持续影响 CPI，但基数上行可能影响 CPI 同比表现，虽然年内 CPI 整体仍将上行，但上行的过程或要等到四季度；PPI 同比增速偏弱，同 时三季度的基数效应也大幅减弱，加之 7月制造业 PMI生产指数较 6月下行、 7 月出口增速走弱等因素影响，年内 PPI 同比增速上行或承压。 【固定收益】食品价格带动通胀温和回升*肖成哲 张鹏 。长期利率下行的 内在约束逐步累积，但参考楼市景气，利率难有趋势反转。 | 市场指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | | 2862.19 | (0.27) | | 深证成指 | | 8393.70 | (0.62 ...

金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2024 年 8 月 12 日 中银量化大类资产周报 全球股指剧烈波动，外资边际流出 A 股 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 机构调研活跃度 股票市场概览 本周 A 股下跌，港股下跌，美股下跌，其他海外权益市场普遍下跌。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：成长风格拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史低位；红利风 格拥挤度及超额净值当前仍处于历史高点，本周拥挤度上升。 小盘 vs 大盘：小盘风格超额净值及拥挤度持续处于历史低位；大盘风 格拥挤度近期从低位反弹。 微盘股 vs 基金重仓：微盘股及基金重仓拥挤度处于历史极高分位，微盘 股超额净值今年以来持续震荡；基金重仓超额累计净值处于历史低位。 资金面与动量/反转风格：当前资金总量处于长期下降阶段，反转较动量 长期占优，与经验一致。 A 股行情及成交热度 本周 A 股成交热度整体下行，领涨的行业为食品饮料、房地产、商贸零 售；领跌的行业为计算机、国防军工、电子。 当前机构调研活跃度历史分位居前的行业为交通运输、煤炭、有色金 属，居后的行业为传媒、医药、通信。 利率市场 本周中国国债利率上涨，美国国债利率上涨，中美利差处于历史高位 ...

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 8 月 11 日 电力设备与新能源行业 8月 第 2 周周报 三部委印发《加快构建新型电力系统行动方案》 光伏方面，多晶硅硅料价格筑底，供需关系逐步缓和，我们预计硅料环节将 率先完成产能出清，颗粒硅与块状硅维持 0.3-0.5 万元/吨，看好颗粒硅市占 率提升；电池片方面，麦迪科技计划出售下属光伏业务实施主体炘皓新能源 100%股权，叠加中润、润阳上市暂缓，电池片环节出清有望加速；三部委联 合印发《加快构建新型电力系统行动方案（2024—2027 年）》，我国光伏装 机需求无忧；逆变器需求持续向好；建议优先配置行业格局较优、供给优化 明显的行业细分环节。风电方面，H2 国内海风招标及建设有望稳步推进， 省级深远海示范项目与规划逐步出台，打开远期想象空间；海外伴随利率下 行与项目规划逐步推进，欧洲等市场需求有望从 2025 年开始释放，带动出 海需求，建议优先配置受益于海风、出海逻辑的塔筒桩基与海缆环节，估值 较低的陆风环节，存在渗透率提升逻辑的国产化与新技术环节。新能源车方 面，材料环节依然面临盈利压力。我们预计下半年材料降价压力有望缓解， 盈利有望得到 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2024 年 8 月 11 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 全球大类资产流动性再分配 大类资产配置顺序：债券>大宗>股票>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 ◼ 经济数据：以美元计，7 月我国出口同比增长 7.0%，进口同比增长 7.2%； 7 月 CPI 同比增长 0.5%，PPI 同比下降 0.8%。 ◼ 要闻：国家发改委等三部门明确今明两年"双碳"标准计量建设任务清单； 三部门印发加快构建新型电力系统行动方案；深圳正式启动收购商品房用 作保障房；央行发布二季度货币政策执行报告。 资产表现回顾 ◼ A 股、债券、大宗整体价格下行。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 1.56%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 1.54%；焦煤期货本周下跌 1.51%，铁矿石主力合约本周下 跌 2.56%；股份制银行理财预期收益率收于 2%，余额宝 7 天年化收益率 上涨 3BP 至 1.45%；十年国债收益率上行 7BP 至 2.2%，活跃十年国债期 货本周下跌 0.31%。 资产配置建议 ◼ 大类资产配置顺序：债券>大宗>股票>货币。本周日韩股市遭遇黑色星期 一，日经 225 指数下跌 12.4%，韩国综合指 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Industry Profitability Tracking Strategy **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to identify industries with upward profitability expectations based on rolling industry data from Wind analysts' consensus forecasts [14] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Collect rolling industry data from Wind analysts' consensus forecasts 2. Build a multi-factor model to track profitability expectations across industries 3. Rank industries based on profitability expectations [14] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies industries with high profitability expectations, such as non-cyclical sectors [14] - **Model Name**: Unverified Sentiment Tracking Strategy **Model Construction Idea**: This model addresses the challenge of market valuations often preceding sell-side profitability forecasts by constructing a sentiment momentum strategy that anticipates profitability data releases [17] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Analyze market sentiment and valuation trends 2. Build a momentum strategy based on implicit sentiment indicators 3. Rank industries based on sentiment momentum [17] **Model Evaluation**: The model captures market sentiment shifts effectively, providing early signals for industry rotation [17] - **Model Name**: Macro Style Industry Rotation Strategy **Model Construction Idea**: This model predicts the long-short positions of four industry styles (high beta, high valuation, 12-month momentum, high volatility) based on macro indicators and ranks industries by their exposure to these styles [22] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Analyze macro indicators and their correlation with industry style returns 2. Predict long-short positions for the four styles 3. Rank industries based on their alignment with macro style predictions [22] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to align industry rotation with macroeconomic trends [22] Model Backtesting Results - **Industry Profitability Tracking Strategy**: Year-to-date excess return of 10.00% compared to the equal-weighted benchmark of CICC primary industries [33] - **Unverified Sentiment Tracking Strategy**: Year-to-date excess return of 6.22% compared to the equal-weighted benchmark of CICC primary industries [33] - **Macro Style Industry Rotation Strategy**: Year-to-date excess return of -9.45% compared to the equal-weighted benchmark of CICC primary industries [33] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Rolling 6-Year PB Valuation Percentile **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor aims to avoid high valuation risks by calculating the percentile of current PB valuations within a rolling 6-year window, excluding extreme values [9] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Exclude the top 10% of PB values in the rolling 6-year window to ensure robust estimation 2. Calculate the current PB valuation percentile within the adjusted window 3. Exclude industries with PB percentiles above 95% from strategy calculations [9][10] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively identifies industries with extreme valuation risks, such as oil and petrochemical sectors [10] Factor Backtesting Results - **Rolling 6-Year PB Valuation Percentile**: - Oil and Petrochemical: 96.8% (triggered high valuation warning) - Coal: 92.0% - Electric Power and Utilities: 91.9% [10][11]

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2024 年 8 月 9 日 8 月金股组合 | --- | --- | |-----------|------------| | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 002001.SZ | 新和成 | | 002409.SZ | 雅克科技 | | 002340.SZ | 格林美 | | 688198.SH | 佰仁医疗 | | 688085.SH | 三友医疗 | | 600809.SH | 山西汾酒 | | 000524.SZ | 岭南控股 | | 002600.SZ | 领益智造 | | 002475.SZ | 立讯精密 | 市场指数 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------------|-------| | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 2869.90 0.00 | | | 深证成指 | 8446.21 (0.04) | | | 沪深 300 | 3342.94 0.04 | | | 中小 100 | 5424.16 0.15 | | | 创业板指 | | | 行业表现 ...

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Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment rating for the following sectors: Home Appliances (20.0%), Transportation (15.0%), Non-ferrous Metals (10.0%), Automotive (10.0%), Defense and Military (10.0%), Electronics (10.0%), Oil and Petrochemicals (5.0%), Steel (5.0%), Electric Power and Utilities (5.0%), Construction (5.0%), and Banking (5.0) [1][23]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the average weekly return for the CITIC first-level industries was 3.4%, with a monthly average return of 0.6%. The best-performing sectors for the week were Defense and Military (7.6%), Home Appliances (7.4%), and Comprehensive Finance (7.3%), while the worst performers were Food and Beverage (-1.4%), Electric Power and Utilities (-1.2%), and Banking (-0.6%) [1][6]. - The report also notes that the industry rotation strategy achieved a cumulative return of -5.68%, outperforming the CITIC first-level industry equal-weight benchmark return of -9.41%, resulting in a cumulative excess return of 3.72% [1][6]. - The sectors with the highest profitability indicators this week were Non-ferrous Metals, Electronics, Automotive, and Home Appliances, indicating a significant improvement in the Home Appliances sector's profitability [1][17]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance Review - The best-performing sectors for the week (20240725-20240801) were Defense and Military (7.6%), Home Appliances (7.4%), and Comprehensive Finance (7.3%). The average weekly return across 30 CITIC first-level industries was 3.4%, with a monthly average of 0.6% [1][6][7]. Valuation Risk Warning - The report identifies that the current PB (Price-to-Book) valuation for the Oil and Petrochemicals and Electric Power and Utilities sectors is above the 95th percentile of the rolling 6-year PB valuation, triggering a high valuation warning for these sectors [1][11][12]. High Prosperity Tracking Strategy - The sectors with the highest prosperity indicators are Non-ferrous Metals, Electronics, Automotive, and Home Appliances, indicating a strong upward trend in profitability expectations for these industries [1][15][17]. Market Sentiment Tracking Strategy - The sectors with the highest market sentiment indicators are Home Appliances, Transportation, and Defense and Military, reflecting a significant change in market sentiment compared to the previous week [1][18][19]. Macro Style Industry Rotation Strategy - The sectors most aligned with future macroeconomic fundamentals are Banking, Construction, Transportation, Oil and Petrochemicals, Electric Power and Utilities, and Steel [1][20]. Strategy Performance and Positioning Review - The report recommends a focus on sectors with high dividends and resource-related industries for August, with a notable shift from the previous month's recommendations [1][23].

中银证券 5EzBUIo4rX8YfVaQaO9PmOoOpNsOjMoOzRiNpPoMaQnPmPNZrRmOuOsOsN 2024年8月2日 强于大市 计算机行业2024年中期策略 提灯夜行，可见朝晖 信息化行业与发观经济繁密相关，由于今年政企客户IT投入力度欠住，下游 需求伴量不明期，业内公司业绩面临压力。但短期承压是已被市场预见的， 而科技的突破性创新往往是不可预见的。在短期选雾中寻找投资机会，需要 "提灯"向前需，对新技术的未来推以希望，从而遇见新成长的"朝晖"。 支样评级的要点 行业旧驱动力乏力，基本面短期承压已市场愿知。内于宏境固素，致 金客产信息记没入承压，行业迎急下游需求放缓的局面。经历2024年上 半年的市场对比已经有明显反应：iFind显示截止到7月31日计算机指数 （1）年内跌幅约25.1%，跌幅领充：（2）2024F的PF（TTM）估值为 30.1X，远低于近三年历史数值中征数94.2X。行业供给读（研发人费和 研发投入）本见明显收缩，行业或处子蓄力价段，互新驱动力出见， 还是能够重回高成长的， 近期成长机会有望来临，在于AI大模型。A1大核型是自2023年以来行 业最大的创新技天 ...