Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both Intel (INTC US) with a target price of 50.00 and AMD (AMD US) with a target price of 280.00 [7][25]. Core Insights - The focus of AI investment in 2026 is shifting from physical AI to Agentic AI, emphasizing the need for computational power in real-time responses and inference [1]. - AMD has launched the complete MI400 series, with the MI500 expected to be released in 2027, showcasing advancements in AI infrastructure [1]. - Intel has officially entered mass production of its 18A process technology, which integrates RibbonFET and PowerVia technologies, enhancing performance and power efficiency [4]. Summary by Sections AMD Developments - AMD introduced the MI400 series, including the Helios platform designed for Yotta-FLOPS level AI infrastructure, featuring 72 MI455X GPUs and a memory bandwidth of 1.4PB/s [1]. - The Ryzen AI 400 series, based on Zen 5 architecture, is set to launch in Q1 2026, aiming to facilitate local AI deployment [2]. - AMD's new developer platform, Ryzen AI Halo, will support local execution of models with up to 200 billion parameters, lowering barriers for AI development [2]. Intel Developments - Intel's Core Ultra Series 3, based on the 18A process, features 16 CPU cores and 12 Xe cores, targeting over 200 OEM PCs [3]. - The integrated Arc B390 graphics card, with 96 XMX AI accelerators, achieves approximately 120 TOPS of AI performance, comparable to NVIDIA's RTX 4050 [3]. - Intel emphasizes the transition of AI workloads to edge and industrial applications, highlighting the importance of hybrid AI solutions [3]. Market Trends - The report indicates a structural shift in AI demand, focusing on edge computing and vertical applications in industries such as healthcare and manufacturing [1][3]. - The integration of advanced process technologies is seen as a strategic move for both AMD and Intel to enhance their competitive positions in the semiconductor market [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18.63 [1][10]. Core Views - The company has issued a positive profit forecast, expecting a net profit of at least RMB 2.9 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 128%. This growth is primarily driven by increased sales of electric two-wheelers and product structure optimization [6][10]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the two-wheeler industry, leveraging its systematic advantages in product strength and distribution channels to consolidate its market position. It aims to expand into the mid-to-high-end market and overseas markets to unlock long-term growth potential [6][10]. - The company anticipates achieving high-quality growth in its two-wheeler business in 2025, with expected sales exceeding 16.2 million units, including over 7.4 million units in the second half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 11% [7]. - The company is focusing on the mid-to-high-end market with brands like "Crown" and "Modern," building differentiated competitive barriers. It is also increasing its self-supply ratio in battery production, which will enhance profitability [8]. - The company is benefiting from policy-driven replacement demand in Southeast Asian markets, with local production and policy alignment expected to boost its market share as electric motorcycles replace fuel-powered ones [9]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to reach RMB 37.19 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 31.71%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 2.94 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 131.26% [5][10]. - The report forecasts an EPS of RMB 0.99 for 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 10.35 times [5][10]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 34.77% in 2025, increasing to 39.36% in 2026 [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including Stone Technology, Eufy, Anker Innovation, Ecovacs, Ugreen Technology, and XGIMI, with target prices set for each [9][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid advancement of AI and robotics technologies in consumer electronics, particularly in smart home devices, cleaning appliances, and wearable technology, indicating a significant investment opportunity in the tech consumer sector for 2026 [1][6]. - The CES 2026 event is identified as a crucial observation point for AI applications in consumer products, with expectations for innovative product launches across various categories [1][6]. Summary by Sections Smart Cleaning Appliances - The robotic vacuum cleaner industry is transitioning into a phase of micro-innovation, with notable product launches such as the G-Rover by Stone Technology, which features dual mechanical legs for enhanced cleaning capabilities [2]. - Other companies like Ecovacs and Chase are also introducing advanced models with improved obstacle avoidance technology and multifunctional capabilities [2]. Garden Robots - The CES showcased numerous new products aimed at garden maintenance, including robotic lawn mowers and pool cleaning robots, with companies like Ninebot and MOVA presenting models that cover various residential and commercial applications [3]. Smart Hardware - The traditional 3C accessories market is experiencing competition, but companies like Ugreen and Anker are carving out niches by innovating and enhancing product offerings, such as the new AI NAS products and security devices [4]. AI Glasses - AI glasses are emerging as a significant wearable technology, with Chinese manufacturers leading the lightweight trend. Notable products include Alibaba's Quark AI Glasses S1 and Rokid's offerings, which feature functionalities like translation and scene guidance [5]. Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes that AI-driven product innovation will be a key growth driver for tech consumer companies in 2026, with recommendations for investment in companies that are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [6].

今日早参 2026 年 1 月 07 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：12 月预览：顺差仍对 GDP 形成支撑 概览：我们预计 12 月内需偏弱但出口韧性犹存，四季度实际 GDP 同比小幅 回落至 4.5%左右，全年实际 GDP 增速录得 5%左右，而部分工业品价格企 稳回升推动名义 GDP 增速有望较三季度边际改善。外需方面，我们预计关 税扰动减轻叠加全球周期性改善，12 月出口同比有望继续回升。但内需层面 消费与投资修复动能预计仍然不足；信贷与社融或同比少增，高基数下 2025 年四季度广义财政支出收缩。向前看，需重点关注今年一季度财政扩张力度 及其对"十五五"实现开门红的支撑效果。 风险提示：地产周期下行拖累内需，关税影响超预期对全球贸易形成冲击。 研报发布日期：2026-01-06 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 吴宛忆 SAC:S0570524090005 SFC:BVN199 固定收益：元旦出行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 120 HKD [5] Core Views - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant asset operations and expansion, with a focus on long-term capacity expansion and supply chain localization. The acquisition of 97.4988% of Huali Micro by the company is expected to enhance its performance and liquidity [1][2] - The integration of Huali Micro is projected to increase the company's net profit by 151%, raising the earnings per share (EPS) by 127% [3] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the dual drivers of "specialized processes + logic processes," alongside the expansion of 12-inch capacity and technological synergies [1][4] Financial Impact on Balance Sheet - Without considering the financing, the total assets are expected to increase by 7.6% to 933.6 billion RMB, and the net assets will rise by 4.2% to 462.8 billion RMB [2][10] - If the financing is successful, total assets and net assets could increase by 16% and 21%, respectively, potentially pushing total assets beyond 1 trillion RMB [2][10] Financial Impact on Profit and Loss Statement - The acquisition is expected to contribute an additional 5.7 billion RMB to net profit, resulting in a total net profit of 9.6 billion RMB, a 151% increase compared to pre-acquisition figures [3][11] - The EPS is projected to rise from 0.22 RMB to 0.50 RMB, reflecting a significant enhancement in shareholder returns [3][11] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to grow by 20.9%, 28.8%, and 17.6%, reaching 24.2 billion, 31.2 billion, and 36.7 billion USD, respectively [4][20] - The company is valued at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 4.2 times for 2026, reflecting its leading position in specialized processes within the semiconductor industry [4][12]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of $7.64, based on an 18x adjusted PE for 2026 [1][7]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in China's second-hand circular economy, integrating the entire 3C second-hand recycling industry chain through four main business lines: Aihuiqiu, Pai Jitang, Paipai, and AHS Device, achieving a closed-loop system of C2B recycling, B2B circulation, and B2C retail [1][19]. - The company is expected to evolve from a fulfillment service provider to a brand owner, enhancing profit margins through retail and compliant refurbishment while expanding into multiple categories for growth [1][21]. Industry Overview - The second-hand electronics market is characterized by low penetration rates and high growth potential, with a projected transaction volume of approximately 702 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 28.7% from 2020 to 2024 [24][27]. - The recycling penetration rate for 3C products in China is only 4.4% as of 2024, indicating significant room for growth compared to developed countries [2][24]. Company Advantages - The company’s competitive edge lies in its vertical integration of the entire industry chain, creating cost and efficiency barriers through resource collaboration [3][20]. - The company has established a strong partnership with JD.com, which significantly reduces customer acquisition costs, with nearly 40% of its recycling sources coming from JD.com [23][19]. Future Growth Prospects - The company plans to expand its store count from approximately 2,000 to over 5,000, which is expected to enhance fulfillment capabilities and drive revenue growth [4][21]. - The company is diversifying its recovery categories, including luxury goods and gold, which could open a second growth curve, with a total market gross profit potential of around 60 billion yuan [4][21]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 20.97 billion yuan in 2025 and 26.29 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.2% from 2025 to 2027 [6][11]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 4.06 billion yuan in 2025 and 6.76 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding adjusted EPS of 1.82 yuan and 3.03 yuan [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the civil aviation manufacturing industry, indicating it will become a significant growth area for China's aerospace manufacturing sector [1][5]. Core Insights - The civil aviation manufacturing sector is expected to mirror the success of the U.S. aerospace industry, where commercial aircraft manufacturing is a major source of revenue and profit for companies like Boeing and GE Aviation [2][55]. - The C919 aircraft is set to lead the development of China's civil aviation manufacturing industry, with a production capacity expected to reach 200 units per year by 2029 [3][56]. - The aftermarket for civil aviation in China is projected to be vast, with the country potentially becoming the largest single aviation market globally by 2044 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Civil Aviation Manufacturing Growth - Civil aviation manufacturing in China is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by the C919's commercial operations and the development of a domestic supply chain [1][5]. - The report highlights that the domestic aviation manufacturing industry is beginning to catch up, with a focus on increasing the localization rate of components [3][4]. C919 Aircraft Development - The C919 aircraft, with over 1,000 orders, is expected to enhance production and delivery capabilities, marking a significant milestone in China's aviation history [3][56]. - The aircraft's production model involves a high degree of localization, with over 50% of its components sourced domestically [3][56]. Aftermarket Opportunities - The civil aviation aftermarket in China is projected to expand, with an increase in the number of approved civil aviation products and components [4][5]. - The report notes that the penetration of domestic materials is expected to rise, helping airlines reduce procurement costs and improve supply chain reliability [4][5]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities within the civil aviation manufacturing supply chain, including companies involved in aircraft body manufacturing, materials, engines, and onboard equipment [5]. - Key companies mentioned include AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry, AVIC Harbin Aircraft Industry, and various suppliers of materials and components [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the price increase of liquid hexafluorophosphate lithium (6F), with a projected price rise due to supply constraints from maintenance activities [1][3]. - The company's 2025 earnings forecast has been revised upwards, with net profit expected to be between 1.1 billion to 1.6 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 179.45% [2][12]. - The company is focusing on increasing the proportion of LIFSI in its products, aiming to enhance growth potential and market share in electrolyte solutions [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The company is rated as "Buy" with a target price of 80.50 RMB, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 67.75 RMB [5][6]. Price and Supply Dynamics - The company plans to conduct maintenance on its 6F production line, which is expected to reduce supply by approximately 2,800 to 4,200 tons, potentially leading to higher prices in the upcoming peak season [1]. - The price of 6F has risen to 180,000 RMB per ton, significantly up from previous quarters, indicating a strong market demand [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company anticipates a substantial increase in net profit for Q4 2025, with estimates ranging from 679 million to 1.179 billion RMB, marking a significant quarter-on-quarter growth [2][12]. - Adjusted profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 show net profits of 1.352 billion, 7.127 billion, and 8.966 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [12][13]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is increasing its focus on LIFSI, aiming to raise its proportion in products from 2% to 3%-4%, which is expected to open new growth avenues [4]. - The report highlights the potential for significant profit elasticity due to the combination of rolling pricing orders and long-term contract negotiations [3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Huaming Equipment with a "Buy" rating, assigning a target price of 29.5 RMB based on a 30.4x PE for 2026 [3][8][15]. Core Views - Huaming Equipment ranks first in the domestic transformer tap changer industry and second globally, with a robust growth outlook driven by overseas expansion, maintenance services, and ultra-high voltage (UHV) business [3][15]. - The global power grid investment is entering an upward cycle, which is expected to boost the company's performance significantly, with a projected CAGR of 18.7% for net profit from 2025 to 2027 [3][15]. - The company is transitioning from a "device manufacturer" to a "full lifecycle service provider," leveraging its high installed base for maintenance services, which presents substantial growth potential [5][18]. Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - The report highlights that global power grid investments are on the rise, with significant constraints on overseas power equipment supply. The company’s export scale is expected to grow, with direct and indirect exports projected at 3.4 billion, 4.9 billion, and 3.1 billion RMB for 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 61.9%, 42.6%, and 45.3% [4][16]. - The company is actively exploring opportunities in Europe, Southeast Asia, and North America, with a focus on localized layouts and customized solutions [4][16]. Ultra-High Voltage and Maintenance Services - The domestic ultra-high voltage market is anticipated to grow significantly, with the company expected to capture a 60% market share, translating to an additional revenue of 2.2 billion RMB during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5][17]. - The maintenance business is projected to reach a potential revenue scale of 7 billion RMB, with a significant increase in orders expected in the coming years [18]. Competitive Advantages - The company maintains a high gross margin, consistently above 55% since 2019, attributed to its strong market position and R&D capabilities, which create substantial barriers to entry for competitors [6][19]. - Huaming Equipment's comprehensive manufacturing capabilities, with 80% of components produced in-house, enhance its cost control and supply chain stability, particularly advantageous during periods of overseas market tightness [6][19]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 7.30 billion, 8.66 billion, and 10.28 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.81, 0.97, and 1.15 RMB [7][12]. - The company’s overall revenue is expected to grow from 2.32 billion RMB in 2024 to 3.29 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Health with a target price of HKD 77.40 [7][18]. Core Insights - JD Health is expected to continue strong revenue growth in 4Q25, with a projected year-on-year increase of 22.7% to RMB 20.26 billion, driven by the increasing online penetration of pharmaceuticals and the company's competitive advantages in supply chain management [2][15]. - The company is anticipated to achieve a non-IFRS operating profit of RMB 260 million in 4Q25, reflecting a non-IFRS operating profit margin of 1.3%, an improvement of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the supply iteration of new medical products, the impact of weight-loss drugs entering the medical insurance list, the penetration of AI medical applications, and the expansion of JD Health's O2O business [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - JD Health's total revenue for 4Q25 is expected to grow by 22.7% year-on-year to RMB 20.26 billion, with pharmaceuticals projected to see over 30% growth in GMV [2][15]. - For the full year of 2025, revenue is forecasted to increase by 25% to RMB 72.7 billion, with a non-IFRS operating profit of RMB 4.11 billion, corresponding to a non-IFRS operating profit margin of 5.7%, an improvement of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [2][15]. Offline Business Development - JD Health is set to open over 200 new offline pharmacy stores in the second half of 2025, with 150 stores expected to open in 4Q25, enhancing user reach and brand exposure [3]. - The company's medical insurance payment coverage has expanded to 8 cities, including Shanghai, which is anticipated to drive user penetration and performance growth [3]. New Product Launches and AI Integration - JD Health continues to strengthen partnerships with upstream medical brands, achieving multiple collaborations for new drug launches, thereby enhancing its channel value [4]. - The report notes the positive reception of JD Health's AI doctor, which has achieved a satisfaction rate of 98%, reinforcing its capabilities in internet medical services [4]. Profitability Adjustments - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 11.6%, 15.6%, and 22.4% respectively, due to improved revenue expectations and the anticipated release of operating leverage [5][15]. - The target valuation for 2026 has been adjusted to a non-IFRS PE of 30.0x, reflecting a premium over comparable companies, driven by JD Health's efficiency in the pharmaceutical market and its advantages in AI medical applications [18].