Group 1: Real Estate Industry - The core viewpoint is that the official launch of commercial real estate REITs marks a significant step towards a new development model in the real estate sector, with policies expected to accelerate the growth of C-REITs [2] - The introduction of 30 REITs-related policies by the CSRC and stock exchanges is seen as a catalyst for expanding asset classes and enhancing efficiency, which could lead to a revaluation of related assets and companies [2] - Companies deeply involved in commercial real estate and management services are expected to benefit significantly from this development [2] Group 2: Financial Services Industry - The recent guidelines from the central bank and financial regulatory authority aim to reduce the pricing cap for small loan companies, which may lead to a rapid industry cleanup [3] - The guidelines require small loan companies to stop issuing loans with comprehensive financing costs exceeding 24% immediately and to gradually lower pricing to within four times the one-year LPR by the end of 2027 [3] - The impact of these guidelines on the broader financial technology sector will depend on whether banks and consumer finance companies follow suit [3] Group 3: Transportation Industry - The outlook for January indicates a seasonal decline in passenger and cargo volumes, but there are positive signs for airline profitability and oil transportation demand [5] - The airline sector is expected to see improved revenue levels due to steady demand growth and favorable oil prices, while oil transportation rates may rise due to geopolitical tensions [5] - Recommendations include focusing on specific stocks in the airline and oil transportation sectors, as well as logistics and express delivery companies [5] Group 4: ETF Market - By the end of 2025, the total scale of ETFs in China surpassed 6 trillion yuan, with a significant increase driven by stock ETFs, which saw a 42% growth [5] - There is a notable divergence in the performance of broad-based ETFs and thematic industry ETFs, with the latter experiencing continued inflows [5] Group 5: Key Companies - Century Huatong is covered for the first time with a "buy" rating and a target price of 24.52 yuan, driven by its leadership in SLG games and strong performance in overseas markets [6] - New and emerging companies like Xinhecheng and Huaming Equipment are also highlighted for their growth potential and strategic initiatives, with target prices set at 38.24 yuan and 29.5 yuan respectively [10][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and market expansion for companies like Sanqi Interactive Entertainment and China Jushi, which are expected to benefit from new game launches and incentive plans [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the commercial real estate sector, including Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Link REIT, and others [9][26]. Core Insights - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs (C-REITs) marks a significant shift in China's real estate development model, with policies aimed at enhancing liquidity and asset valuation [1][5]. - The new policies are expected to accelerate the scale of C-REITs, particularly in the commercial real estate sector, which is seen as having the most substantial growth potential [4][25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding the asset base and optimizing regulatory mechanisms to attract more investment and enhance market efficiency [3][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Link REIT, and several other companies, indicating strong growth potential in the commercial real estate sector [9][26]. Policy Background - The transformation of the REITs system is driven by three main factors: revitalizing existing assets, promoting pilot experiences, and enhancing the quality of REITs to meet market demands [2][11]. Policy Core - The core of the new policies focuses on expanding the asset base and increasing efficiency, which includes breaking the self-holding restrictions for original rights holders and enhancing market-driven pricing mechanisms [3][12]. Impact and Outlook - The report identifies three key factors that could drive the rapid scaling of REITs: increased motivation for original rights holders, a broader range of participating funds, and improved efficiency in the review and management processes [4][19]. - Commercial real estate is expected to become the focal point for expansion, with the potential for significant growth in this sector [24][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in companies with a strong presence in commercial real estate and management advantages, such as Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, and others [5][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company aims to become a world-class automotive enterprise, targeting sales of 1 million units in 2026 and 4 million units in the long term [4][5] - The company has established a comprehensive self-research and platform-based manufacturing system, achieving a sales volume of approximately 597,000 units in 2025, marking a significant improvement in its fundamentals [2][3] - The strategic investment from FAW Group, acquiring approximately 5% equity for about HKD 3.74 billion, highlights the recognition of the company's long-term strategy [3] Sales and Financial Projections - The company expects to achieve sales of 600,000, 1,040,000, and 1,420,000 units in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding revenues of RMB 68.3 billion, RMB 123.5 billion, and RMB 168.8 billion [5][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 6.6 million, RMB 51.1 million, and RMB 82.5 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][11] Strategic Developments - The company has signed a powertrain cooperation agreement with FAW, focusing on the joint development of range-extended and plug-in hybrid vehicles, with the first model expected to be mass-produced in 2026 [3] - The D-series models, including D19 and D99, are set to launch in 2026, enhancing the company's high-end product lineup [3][4] Market Expansion - The company plans to leverage Stellantis' distribution channels to export over 60,000 vehicles in 2025, entering 35 countries with more than 800 overseas stores [2][4] - The strategic cooperation with FAW and Stellantis is expected to drive growth and profitability during the upcoming new vehicle cycle [4]

证券研究报告 中国巨石 (600176 CH) 新激励，新周期 | 华泰研究 | | 动态点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 05 日│中国内地 | 玻璃 | 目标价(人民币): | 20.80 | | 公司 | 1 月 1 日公布 2025 年限制性股票激励计划草案，且 | 12 月电子布提价 | 方晏荷 | 研究员 | | 落实。此次激励对应公司业绩考核目标包括 | | 2026/2027/2028 年扣非归母净 | SAC No. S0570517080007 | fangyanhe@htsc.com | | | | | SFC No. BPW811 | +(86) 755 2266 0892 | | 利润、扣非净资产收益率和经济增加值改善值等多项指标，我们认为此次激 | | | | | | 励传承了公司一以贯之的人才重视政策，与 | | 2021-2023 年超额利润分享方 | 黄颖 SAC No. S0570522030002 | 研究员 huangying018854@htsc.com | | 经 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Views - The report highlights a significant year-on-year increase in travel demand during the New Year holiday period, attributed to a low base effect from the previous year [6] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from limited supply growth, rising ticket prices, and improved profitability due to favorable oil prices and currency exchange rates [9] Summary by Sections Travel Demand Growth - During the 2026 New Year holiday, cross-regional travel reached 595 million trips, averaging 198 million trips per day, with a year-on-year growth of 19.62% [6] - Rail travel saw the highest growth at 52.6%, while civil aviation grew by 10.4% and intercity buses by 20.8% [6] Aviation Sector Insights - Civil aviation passenger volume reached 5.88 million during the holiday, with a daily average of 1.96 million, reflecting a 10.4% increase year-on-year [6] - Average domestic economy class ticket prices rose to 684.6 yuan, showing a recovery trend after a decline in the previous year [6] Road and Rail Travel - Road travel accounted for 540 million trips, with a daily average of 18 million, marking a 15.7% increase year-on-year [7] - Rail travel demand remained strong, with an estimated 48.09 million trips during the holiday, reflecting a 52.7% year-on-year increase [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the aviation sector for 2026, anticipating strong performance during the Spring Festival and sustained demand growth in the medium to long term [9] - Key stocks recommended include Huaxia Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, all rated as "Buy" with target prices set for 2026 [5][12]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The New Year's holiday saw a significant increase in travel and consumption, with daily cross-regional personnel flow up 19.5% year-on-year and average consumer spending rising over 30% compared to last year [2][3] - The manufacturing PMI showed a seasonal rebound, indicating a recovery in exports and manufacturing activity [2] - Real estate transactions remain low, but there is a call for stronger policy support to stabilize the market [2] Group 2: Oil and Energy Sector - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela has shifted dramatically, with the U.S. taking control of the oil industry, which may have far-reaching implications for global geopolitics and trade [3] - The potential for market-driven investments in Venezuela's oil sector could reshape the energy landscape in the Americas [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The spring market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by improved PMI data and favorable liquidity conditions [6][9] - The focus for investors should be on thematic investments in sectors like commercial aerospace, humanoid robots, and domestic computing power [6] - A balanced approach is recommended, with an emphasis on high-dividend stocks and cyclical sectors such as consumer goods and energy [6] Group 4: Transportation Sector - During the New Year's holiday, the number of cross-regional travelers reached 595 million, with a daily average increase of 19.62% year-on-year, driven by a low base from the previous year [16] - The railway sector experienced the highest growth rate at 52.6%, indicating strong demand for rail travel [16] Group 5: Consumer Sector - The New Year's holiday saw a steady increase in consumer spending, with total spending reaching 847.89 billion yuan, a 6.3% increase year-on-year [17] - The report highlights structural opportunities in the consumer sector, particularly in domestic brands, AI-enabled technology consumption, and emotional spending [17] Group 6: Real Estate Sector - The emphasis on managing expectations in the real estate market has increased, with a focus on stabilizing market sentiment [18] - There is optimism for investment opportunities in well-managed real estate companies and high-dividend property management firms [18] Group 7: Chemical Industry - The polycarbonate (PC) industry is expected to enter a favorable cycle due to strong demand from the electric vehicle sector and limited new capacity additions [19] - The industry is projected to achieve high operating rates of 87% to 95% from 2025 to 2027, indicating a positive outlook for key players [19] Group 8: Technology Sector - The CES 2026 event is anticipated to shift focus towards AI-driven technologies, marking a significant transition in the consumer electronics landscape [20] - The report suggests that AI applications will be a key area to watch, with implications for various sectors including automotive and industrial applications [20] Group 9: Fixed Income Market - The bond market is expected to face mixed conditions, with short-term trading opportunities arising from new public fund sales regulations [13] - The report suggests a focus on short-term strategies and flexible operations in response to market dynamics [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [7]. Core Insights - The central government emphasizes the importance of managing expectations in the real estate market, indicating a proactive approach to stabilize the market [2][3]. - The report highlights that while the traditional real estate development model has reached its limits, the sector remains a crucial foundation for the national economy, with significant demand still to be released [4]. - The report suggests that if policies continue to address expectations effectively, it could accelerate market stabilization [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - The report recommends investing in "three good" real estate companies, which are characterized by good credit, good cities, and good products, including companies like China Overseas Development and Longfor Group [5]. - It also highlights companies with strong operational capabilities that can manage cash flow during market adjustments, such as New Town Holdings and Longfor Group [5]. - Companies benefiting from the recovery of the Hong Kong market, like Sun Hung Kai Properties, are also recommended [5]. Policy Management - The report stresses the need for maintaining policy strength, effective supply management, and enhancing information and public opinion guidance to stabilize market expectations [3]. - It notes that policies should align with market expectations and be implemented decisively to avoid a situation where the market and policies are in conflict [3]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the real estate market is still adjusting, with significant declines in sales and prices, and mentions the potential for bankruptcies among some companies [2]. - It emphasizes that the real estate sector is closely linked to financial security and household wealth, underscoring its importance in the broader economic context [2]. Company Performance - The report provides detailed performance forecasts for several key companies, adjusting earnings per share (EPS) estimates for various firms based on market conditions and operational performance [12][13][14]. - For instance, Longfor Group's EPS estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 0.52, 0.68, and 1.04 yuan, reflecting a downward revision due to expected profitability challenges in its development business [12]. - China Overseas Development's EPS estimates have been adjusted to 1.39, 1.48, and 1.60 yuan for the same period, indicating a more optimistic outlook based on its strong market position and project pipeline [12].

证券研究报告 基础化工 行业走势图 (5) 6 17 28 39 Jan-25 May-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 供需逐步向好下 PC 或迎景气周期 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 04 日│中国内地 动态点评 基础化工 增持 (维持) | 庄汀洲 | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570519040002 | zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com | | SFC No. BQZ933 | +(86) 10 5679 3939 | | 张雄 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570523100003 | zhangxiong@htsc.com | | SFC No. BVN325 | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | | 杨文韬* | 联系人 | | SAC No. S0570124070150 | yangwentao@htsc.com | 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 重点推荐 | | | 目标价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 股票代码 | (当地币种) | 投资 ...

证券研究报告 金融 看好开门红，把握金融修复机会 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 04 日│中国内地 行业周报（第一周） 投资机会方面证券>银行>保险。2025 年收官，A 股、港股全年日均成交额 同比+63%、+89%；A 股日均融资余额同比+34%；上证、恒指、恒生科技 全年均录得两位数涨幅。证监会修订发布《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用 管理规定》，销售阶段改革正式落地，相较征求意见稿，正式稿进一步细化 认申购费率要求，对赎回费机制有一定放宽，并将整改期统一为 12 个月。 REITs 高质量发展和商业不动产 REITs 试点规则发布，明确支持符合条件 的公募基金将 REITs 纳入投资范围，探索 REITs ETF，并推动将 REITs 纳 入沪深港通。 子行业观点 1）证券：2025 年申万证券指数涨幅 2.6%，跑输沪深 300 指数 15.1pct， 尤其 9 月以来明显滞涨。元旦假期港股交出亮眼答卷，2 号恒指、科指分别 涨 2.76%、4.00%，中资券商指数涨 2.93%。2）银行：2025 年全年涨幅为 12.5%，在 30 个一级行业中排名第 22；银行指数跑输沪深 300 指数 5.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to see a 0.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q4 2025, reaching 33.52 billion RMB, which aligns with the company's previous guidance of flat to +5% year-on-year [1][6] - Seasonal factors, such as warmer temperatures in December and a later Chinese New Year in 2026, may impact winter clothing sales and shift some consumer demand [1][3] - The company aims to enhance the service experience for its core SVIP users to maintain consumer loyalty and wallet share, while also considering promotional strategies to attract purchases [1] - The report highlights the importance of shareholder return initiatives in 2026, which could support the company's valuation [1] Revenue and Profitability - The report anticipates a 3.8% year-on-year increase in GMV for Q4 2025, reaching 68.7 billion RMB, with a narrowing gap between GMV growth and revenue growth [2] - The expected gross margin for Q4 2025 is 22.9%, reflecting a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points due to increased investments in user engagement [2] - The non-GAAP net profit margin is projected to be 8.2% for Q4 2025, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Conditions and Policy Impact - The report notes that online retail sales of physical goods in November 2025 grew by 3.5% year-on-year, with a decline in the growth rate for clothing and footwear categories [3] - The central economic work conference indicated that expanding domestic demand will be a priority in 2026, which could benefit the company as it operates in the discretionary consumer goods sector [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downwards by 0.1%, 2.6%, and 2.5% to 8.6 billion, 8.8 billion, and 9.1 billion RMB respectively, primarily due to lower gross margin expectations [4][12] - The target price for the company is set at $23.26, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 9x for 2026, which is at a discount compared to the average of comparable companies at 14.6x [4][15]