证券研究报告 小菜园 (999 HK) 港股通 强化性价比优势拥抱高质量增长 2026 年 1 月 21 日│中国香港 餐饮 | 华泰研究 | 更新报告 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 1 月 21 日│中国香港 | 餐饮 | 目标价(港币): | 11.41 | | 2025 年餐饮行业整体表现受到外卖补贴节奏扰动较明显，中低客单价大众 | | 樊俊豪 | 研究员 | | 日常品类在较大幅度补贴下性价比优势显著放大、阶段性需求表现占优。回 | | SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 | fanjunhao@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 | SFC No. BDO986 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 洪洋* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070021 hongyang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (港币 截至 1 月 20 日) | 8.81 | | -- ...

证券研究报告 龙净环保 (600388 CH) 源网荷储+矿电联动打开成长空间 2026 年 1 月 21 日│中国内地 环保工程及服务 龙净环保为我国大气治理行业龙头，2022 年 5 月紫金矿业成为龙净控股股 东。龙净定位紫金旗下矿山绿色能源综合服务商，形成"绿电-储能-纯电矿卡" 业务闭环，"源网荷储"和"矿电联动"有望驱动长期发展。2025 年公司 拉果错源网荷储项目已成为重要利润贡献，中标麻米错、刚果金凯兰庚水电 站等项目，同时积极推进海外电站建设，电动矿卡已正式交付。我们认为龙 净环保业务稳健增长，优质电站资源具备稀缺性，清洁能源和电动矿卡成长 空间广阔，维持"买入"评级。 环保主业稳健增长，"源网荷储"和"矿电联动"驱动发展 2017 年以来龙净每年新增环保订单维持 90 亿以上，受益于 2022 年以来国 内煤电"小阳春"行情和钢铁、水泥、焦化等行业超低排放的持续推进，有 望保持平稳发展。龙净环保"源网荷储"和"矿电联动"强力支撑紫金双碳 战略（2029 碳达峰/2050 碳中和），全产业链布局矿山绿色能源解决方案。 矿业场景下盈利可期，紫金扩产打开成长空间 我们与市场观点不同之处 1）市场担 ...

证券研究报告 小菜园 (999 HK) 港股通 强化性价比优势拥抱高质量增长 2026 年 1 月 21 日│中国香港 餐饮 | 华泰研究 | 更新报告 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 1 月 21 日│中国香港 | 餐饮 | 目标价(港币): | 11.41 | | 2025 年餐饮行业整体表现受到外卖补贴节奏扰动较明显，中低客单价大众 | | 樊俊豪 | 研究员 | | 日常品类在较大幅度补贴下性价比优势显著放大、阶段性需求表现占优。回 | | SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 | fanjunhao@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 | SFC No. BDO986 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 洪洋* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070021 hongyang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (港币 截至 1 月 20 日) | 8.81 | | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility sector and the power generation sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report argues that the core logic determining the valuation of power stocks has changed in the new energy era, with expectations of a rebound in electricity prices and stock valuations as coal prices stabilize [4][6]. - It highlights that the most challenging phase for electricity supply and demand in China has passed, with expectations of a recovery in demand starting in 2026 [4][7]. - The report emphasizes that the valuation gap between U.S. and Chinese power stocks has widened significantly, with U.S. power stocks trading at 2-4 times the price-to-book (PB) ratio of their Chinese counterparts [4][6][7]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several undervalued power operators, including Huaneng International, Guodian Power, and China Power [3][8]. - It suggests that the capacity price increase in 2026 will benefit thermal power, while the stabilization of energy prices will favor nuclear, green, and hydropower [8]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that both China and the U.S. are experiencing similar electricity shortages due to a slowdown in the growth of base-load power sources, with structural demand exceeding expectations potentially leading to supply crises [5][26]. - It discusses the significant differences in electricity pricing structures between the two countries, with U.S. electricity prices being significantly higher due to various systemic costs [56][58]. Price Trends and Projections - The report predicts that by 2026, the industrial electricity prices in China will be significantly lower than those in the U.S., enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing [6][11]. - It highlights that the electricity price gap between the two countries is expected to continue to widen, benefiting China's manufacturing sector [6][8]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The report indicates that the most severe supply-demand imbalance in China has passed, with expectations of a recovery in electricity demand driven by increased manufacturing investment [7][8]. - It also notes that the U.S. is facing a similar situation, with a projected decline in gas-fired electricity generation and a potential increase in coal-fired generation [5][30].

证券研究报告 索尼 (6758 JP) 剥离电视机业务，加速创意娱乐转型 2026 年 1 月 20 日│日本 消费电子 2026 年 1 月 20 日，索尼宣布与 TCL 电子（1070 HK）签署谅解备忘录， 双方拟在家庭娱乐领域建立战略合作伙伴关系。双方计划成立一家合资公 司，其中 TCL 持股 51%，索尼持股 49%。新公司将承接索尼的家庭娱乐业 务（包括电视和家庭音频设备等），涵盖从产品开发、设计、制造到销售、 物流及服务的全流程。新公司将继续在全球使用"索尼"及"BRAVIA"品 牌，结合索尼在画质音质技术与品牌运营上的深厚积累，以及 TCL 在显示 技术、全球工业布局及端到端成本效率上的优势，全面负责从研发、制造到 销售服务的全产业链运营。双方计划于 2026 年 3 月底前签署最终协议，并 预计于 2027 年 4 月正式启动业务。我们认为：1）合资公司成立后，索尼 或保留品牌溢价，借力 TCL 供应链有望实现降本增效；2）此次交易符合索 尼近年来持续剥离非核心业务的策略，有望聚焦高增长、高壁垒业务，加快 创意娱乐转型。维持目标价 5,400 日元，维持"买入"评级。 保留品牌溢价，或借力 ...

证券研究报告 港股通 TCL 电子 (1070 HK) 与索尼战略合作优势互补，强化全球 领导地位 2026 年 1 月 21 日│中国香港 视听器材 公司 20 日公告与索尼就家庭娱乐领域签署战略合作的意向备忘录，并于 18 日预告了 2025 全年业绩：经调整归母净利約在 23.3 亿至 25.7 亿港元之间， 同比约 45%至 60%的增长（优于股权计划目标上限 45%增长）。公司凭借 "全球化"与"中高端化"战略，在国际市场份额稳步提升，同时受益于国内"以 旧换新"政策的优化延续。此外，与索尼潜在的深度战略合作（拟成立合资 公司承接索尼家庭娱乐业务）有望进一步强化全球份额优势。与此同时，公 司积极推进智能化与 AI 应用落地，在 AI 电视、智能眼镜、AI 陪伴机器人等 前沿产品上已有布局，新一轮产品周期或将打开成长空间，支撑公司长期价 值提升。维持"买入"评级。 推动索尼合作、优势互补，或助力提升公司全球地位 2026 年 1 月 20 日，TCL 电子公告与索尼签署战略合作的意向备忘录，涉 及成立合资公司承接索尼家庭娱乐业务，合资公司将由本集团持股 51%及 索尼持股 49%，并在全球范围内开展包 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 17.25 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth, with a projected net profit for 2025 ranging from RMB 1.58 billion to RMB 1.74 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 65% [6]. - The company anticipates a reduction in losses for Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024, driven by land reserve contributions and operational improvements [6]. - The U8 product line is expected to continue its rapid growth, supported by strategic market expansions and new product launches at a price point of RMB 10 [7][9]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 14.67 billion in 2024, RMB 15.14 billion in 2025, RMB 15.48 billion in 2026, and RMB 15.84 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 3.20%, 3.24%, 2.25%, and 2.32% respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 1.06 billion in 2024, RMB 1.68 billion in 2025, RMB 1.95 billion in 2026, and RMB 2.25 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 63.74%, 59.29%, 16.09%, and 15.12% respectively [5]. - The company’s EPS is projected to increase from RMB 0.37 in 2024 to RMB 0.80 in 2027 [5]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 33.40 in 2024 to 15.69 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [5]. - The target price of RMB 17.25 corresponds to a PE of 25x for 2026, reflecting a higher growth rate compared to peers [9][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and reducing costs, which is expected to enhance profit margins [8]. - The beverage business is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth, particularly in core markets [7]. - The company is also benefiting from trends towards health-conscious products, particularly in its natto business [7].

证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 德国电动车补贴利好锂电产业链 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 20 日│中国内地 动态点评 锂电需求有望上修，欧洲产业链相关标的弹性更大 我们预计政策可带动电动车新增需求在 0~80 万辆之间，按照单车带电量 60kWh 计算，对应电池新增需求 0~48GWh，占 26 年全球电池需求约 0~1.7%。看好锂电需求上修带来业绩增量，欧洲产业链相关标的弹性更大， 看好欧洲敞口大的相关环节标的，首选电池环节宁德时代、亿纬锂能，三元 正极当升科技，此外其余锂电产业链也有望受益于需求上修，推荐磷酸铁锂 环节湖南裕能、负极环节尚太科技、电解液环节天赐材料。 德国政府 1 月 19 日宣布，联邦政府气候与转型基金拨款 30 亿欧元，对新 购入电动汽车的家庭提供最高 6000 欧元的补贴，以推动其电动汽车产业发 展，这是德国在 2023 年底终止原有电动汽车购车补贴政策后，再次提供类 似补贴。我们认为政策意在扶持电动车产业发展，补贴倾向纯电汽车+中低 收入人群，看好锂电需求上修带来锂电产业链公司业绩增量，推荐宁德时代、 亿纬锂能、当升科技、湖南裕能、尚太科技、天赐材料。 政策意在扶持电动车产 ...

证券研究报告 汽车 上游涨价抬成本，关税松绑拓空间 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 20 日│中国内地 动态点评 近期汽车行业三大关键变化值得关注：存储芯片、铜铝等涨价给整车企业成 本带来压力；博世业绩承压，反映欧洲供应链转型挑战；加拿大下调中国电 动汽车关税至 6.1%，中国车企开辟北美市场迎机遇。全球汽车产业格局处 于深度调整阶段，建议关注具备全产业链优势、积极布局全球的整车企业。 上游涨价：存储涨价提高中高端车成本，铜铝价攀升更影响新能源车 （1）存储芯片涨价对中高端车成本影响更大：低端车（5-10 万元） RAM+ROM 总量不足 100GB，中高端车（15-30 万元）存储总量普遍超 500GB，高端智能车（30 万元以上）突破 1TB。内存价格翻倍下，RAM/ROM 单价将提升 20 元/GB 及 2 元/GB，低端车和中高端车存储相差较大（RAM 分别为 5-10GB 及 24-88GB，ROM 分别为 40-72GB 及 160-512GB），在 其他因素不变情况下，低端车（售价 10 万元）成本仅增 180-344 元（占售 价比约 0.2%~0.3%）；而中高端车（售价 15~30 万元） ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The demand for yellow phosphorus is expected to improve due to growth in downstream phosphoric acid and terminal materials for new energy, electronic-grade phosphoric acid, and fine phosphates. The high prices of sulfur and sulfuric acid are enhancing the cost competitiveness of thermal phosphoric acid over wet phosphoric acid, which may further boost the demand for thermal process phosphoric acid and yellow phosphorus [5][6] - The supply of yellow phosphorus is strictly controlled in China due to high energy consumption and environmental safety concerns, with only limited new capacity being added through capacity replacement. The dual carbon policy may lead to the elimination of high-energy-consuming existing capacity, which is expected to optimize the supply side [6][7] - The average operating rate of the domestic yellow phosphorus industry is projected to reach approximately 63% in 2025, the highest level since 2017, driven by favorable supply and demand dynamics. The price of yellow phosphorus is showing an upward trend, with a reference price of around 23,000 yuan per ton as of January 19, 2025, reflecting a 2.4% increase from the end of 2025 [7][5] Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for yellow phosphorus is projected to grow by 26% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 850,000 tons, while phosphoric acid consumption is expected to increase by 19% to 2.96 million tons. The five-year CAGR for yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid is estimated at 5% and 12%, respectively [5][6] - The high prices of sulfur and sulfuric acid, which have reached nearly a decade high, are expected to drive the demand for thermal phosphoric acid and yellow phosphorus. The cost advantage of thermal phosphoric acid over wet phosphoric acid is becoming more pronounced, especially considering the offset from by-products [5][6] Supply Constraints - The domestic yellow phosphorus capacity has decreased from 1.9 million tons in 2013 to 1.41 million tons in 2020, with a slight recovery to 1.58 million tons by the end of 2025, primarily due to capacity replacement. Only ten companies have a capacity of 50,000 tons or more, indicating a highly concentrated industry [6][39] - The dual carbon policy is expected to continue limiting new supply, with high-energy-consuming and inefficient capacities facing elimination pressure [6][7] Price Trends and Market Outlook - The average operating rate for yellow phosphorus is expected to improve, with a projected increase in monthly operating rates throughout 2025. The price of yellow phosphorus is anticipated to be supported by potential supply disruptions and increasing demand from new energy and electronic chemical sectors [7][5] - Companies with integrated operations in the yellow phosphorus value chain, including mining, yellow phosphorus production, and phosphoric acid, are expected to benefit significantly from the favorable market conditions [5][7]