Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the power and coal sectors, including Harbin Electric, China Shenhua, and Zhongmei Energy [7][9][30]. Core Insights - The electricity demand in November 2025 is expected to continue its high growth rate, with a projected increase of 6.6% year-on-year, reaching 8,364 billion kWh [1]. - The report highlights a significant rebound in exports, particularly in integrated circuits and automobiles, which is expected to support electricity demand growth [3]. - The heating season is anticipated to be longer this year due to the late timing of the Spring Festival, potentially leading to higher-than-expected heating demand [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of domestic demand driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and reducing competition [5]. Summary by Sections Electricity Generation Forecast - The estimated national electricity generation for November 2025 is 7,898 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [1][10]. - The breakdown of generation includes thermal power at 5,069 billion kWh (down 2.1%), hydropower at 1,138 billion kWh (up 38.3%), wind power at 955 billion kWh (up 16.0%), solar power at 336 billion kWh (up 12.8%), and nuclear power at 400 billion kWh (up 6.4%) [10][14]. Coal Consumption Trends - Thermal coal consumption has shown a decline, with coastal provinces averaging 1.84 million tons per day (down 2.5% year-on-year) and inland provinces averaging 3.35 million tons per day (down 5.6% year-on-year) [2][10]. - The report suggests that improved water conditions and seasonal wind energy output may lead to a reduction in thermal power generation [2]. Company Recommendations - Harbin Electric is recommended due to its leading position in traditional power equipment and expected benefits from ongoing nuclear power approvals and global electricity shortages [30]. - Zhongmei Energy is highlighted for its effective cost control and expected recovery in coal prices, maintaining a "Buy" rating [31]. - China Shenhua is noted for its strong cost management and improved profitability, with a target price increase to 51.3 yuan [35]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that electricity demand will outpace GDP growth for the year, supported by both domestic and export recovery [5]. - The potential for higher-than-expected coal demand during the heating season is emphasized, suggesting a bullish outlook for coal prices [4][5].

Group 1: Engineering Machinery - Domestic demand for excavators is expected to recover to around 120,000 units in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 19.6% in the first ten months of 2025 [1][15] - The export of excavators reached 93,800 units in the first ten months of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, with an expected annual growth rate of around 15% [1][29] - The recovery in domestic demand is primarily driven by small excavators, reflecting increased demand for machinery in rural and small-scale water conservancy projects [15][20] Group 2: Shipbuilding and Offshore Engineering - The global shipbuilding industry saw a decline in new orders, with a total of 9,483.31 million deadweight tons in the first ten months of 2025, down 44.67% year-on-year [2] - The shipbuilding price index has shown a general decline, but there is a recovery in orders for bulk carriers and oil tankers in October 2025 [2] - The upcoming replacement cycle in shipbuilding, combined with tightening global environmental policies, is expected to drive a new round of demand growth [2] Group 3: Cyclical Industries - The cyclical sector is showing signs of recovery in 2025, supported by low baselines and the expansion into new industries [3] - The industrial control market is rebounding, with a notable increase in the OEM market, while project-based markets are showing weaker performance [3] - The industrial robot market is expected to grow by over 10% year-on-year in 2025, indicating a sustained recovery [3] Group 4: AI and Robotics - The AI sector is driving significant changes in various industries, with a focus on humanoid robots, data center equipment, and vertical applications [4] - The demand for data center backup power sources is increasing due to global capacity shortages, with domestic alternatives expected to accelerate [4] - The introduction of humanoid robots is becoming a reality, with significant production plans announced by companies like Tesla for 2026 [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the engineering machinery sector, particularly companies like SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong, which are expected to benefit from domestic and international demand [5][9] - In the shipbuilding and offshore engineering sector, China International Marine Containers (CIMC) is highlighted as a potential beneficiary of the recovery [5][9] - The AI and robotics sector presents investment opportunities in companies like Weichuang Electric and Jack Technology, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing industrial transformation [5][9]

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%[2] - The decision faced opposition from three members, with one advocating for a 50 basis point cut[2] - The Fed initiated Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs) with an initial purchase of $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities[3] Economic Outlook - The Fed's dot plot indicates one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027, maintaining a cautious stance[4] - Economic growth forecasts for Q4 2025 were raised by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7%, with 2026 and 2027 forecasts increased to 2.3% and 2.0% respectively[6] - Core PCE inflation forecasts for Q4 2025 and 2026 were lowered to 3.0% and 2.5% respectively[6] Market Reactions - Financial markets reacted positively, with stock indices rising by 0.8%-0.9% and the dollar index falling by 0.2% to 98.6[2] - The yields on 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds decreased by 3 basis points and 2 basis points, respectively[2] Employment and Inflation Insights - Powell indicated that job gains have been overestimated, suggesting a potential monthly net decrease of 20,000 jobs since April[5] - Service inflation is slowing, while goods inflation remains affected by tariffs, with expectations of a peak impact in Q1 next year[5] Future Projections - The Fed is expected to adopt a wait-and-see approach in the first half of 2026, with potential rate cuts of 1-2 times after June[7] - The overall sentiment remains dovish, with a focus on upcoming employment and inflation data before making further decisions[4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 23.52 RMB, corresponding to a 24x PE for 2026 [8]. Core Insights - The company is a pioneer in the low-temperature dairy sector with a nationwide layout, focusing on product innovation, channel expansion, milk source distribution, cold chain construction, and regional brand strength. The report is optimistic about the company's continuous focus on low-temperature dairy products and its proactive approach to developing new products that align with market tastes, penetrating lower-tier markets, and embracing emerging channels like Sam's Club [1][17]. Industry Overview - The low-temperature milk industry in China is accelerating its penetration, with a market size projected to reach 41.8 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 1.4% from 2022 to 2024. The penetration rate of low-temperature milk in the liquid milk sector is expected to rise to 12.1% [2][18]. - The competitive landscape is relatively fragmented, with major players like Yili and Mengniu holding a combined market share of 28% and 36% in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, respectively, which is lower than their shares in the ambient milk sector [2][18]. Company Strategy - The company has upgraded its "Three Fresh" strategy, focusing on the dual strengths of fresh milk and yogurt, aiming to develop billion-level products. The DTC model is expected to contribute significantly to growth, with a target of over 30% revenue share from DTC channels by 2027 [3][20]. - The company plans to enhance its product portfolio by leveraging its proprietary strain library and expanding into new product categories like low-temperature yogurt drinks, while also exploring international markets in Southeast Asia [4][21]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% in scale and aims to double its net profit margin to over 7.8% by 2027. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 723.97 million RMB, 841.28 million RMB, and 953.46 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.84 RMB, 0.98 RMB, and 1.11 RMB [6][12][21].

证券研究报告 基础材料 锂：近端强现实，远期依旧看好上涨 锂行业：近端强现实，远期需求分歧依旧较大 今年 9 月以来，碳酸锂价格持续走强，期货主力合约价格一度突破 10 万元 /吨，价格上涨主要可归因为供给端江西枧下窝矿山在 8 月停产以及需求端 下游电池需求呈现明显淡季不淡，供给扰动与需求高增速共振下，国内库存 持续去化。与此同时，国内储能招标维持高增速，导致市场对于 26 年全球 储能出货预期大幅抬升。强现实+强需求预期推升碳酸锂价格在三季度以来 持续上涨。站在当前节点展望后市，市场对具体 26/27 年需求增速预期尤其 储能的增速上呈明显分歧，该分歧直接导致市场对于碳酸锂未来的长期供需 测算结果方差较大。本文将对不同终端增速预期下的碳酸锂需求以及不同价 格下的供给进行测算，以分析未来锂价的合理中枢。 供给：预计锂资源 26 年/27 年产量增速为 32.3%/17.1% 根据我们测算，2026 年全球锂资源供应增量将主要来自国内盐湖新项目投 产、非洲矿与澳矿的放量，以及南美盐湖产能的爬产。中性预期下，我们预 测 2025 年至 2027 年全球锂资源供给量预计分别为 163.4 万吨、216.2 万 吨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the construction and building materials sectors [10]. Core Viewpoints - The construction and building materials sector is expected to experience a spring rally in 2026, driven by improvements in construction PMI, order volume, and favorable market conditions such as a later Spring Festival and strong domestic excavator sales [13][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend and price-increasing stocks, recommending companies with stable performance and high dividend yields, as well as traditional building materials with price increase potential [13][19]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: sustainable growth in renovation, thorough industry clearing in construction materials, and opportunities in high-quality leading companies in various segments [14][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights a potential spring rally for the building materials sector, supported by fiscal improvements and strong domestic machinery sales [19]. - Historical data shows that the building materials index has a high probability of outperforming the market in Q1, with a 57% chance of rising based on past performance [15]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends several companies, including China Chemical, China National Materials, and Xinyi Glass, with target prices and buy ratings [10][38]. - Specific recommendations include: - China Chemical (601117 CH) - Target Price: 12.05 - China National Materials (600970 CH) - Target Price: 14.23 - Xinyi Glass (868 HK) - Target Price: 9.54 - Others include China United Plastic, Jinggong Steel Structure, and Dongfang Yuhong [10][38]. Market Dynamics - Recent data indicates a 1.2% week-on-week increase in national cement prices, while the average price of float glass has risen by 2.3% [2][28]. - The report notes that the domestic float glass market is stabilizing, with some regions experiencing price increases due to supply constraints [28][30]. - The electronic fabric market is also showing signs of price increases, driven by demand from PCB clients [25][33]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued demand in the cleanroom engineering and special electronic fabric sectors, with a focus on companies that can adapt to new production capabilities and traditional industry upgrades [14][19]. - The construction sector is expected to benefit from urban renewal initiatives and the ongoing recovery of the real estate market, with a focus on renovation and construction materials [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the telecommunications sector and its sub-sectors, including telecommunications equipment manufacturing [9]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by key events such as the successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket and the upcoming launch of the Long March 12 rocket, which aims to achieve reusability [2][3]. - The Shanghai Songjiang Satellite Internet Industry Conference highlighted the development opportunities in satellite internet, with partnerships being formed to enhance aviation satellite internet applications [16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of ground terminals and applications as critical components of the commercial aerospace industry's business ecosystem, suggesting a focus on undervalued segments with broad potential [18]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The telecommunications index rose by 3.69% last week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.37%, and the Shenzhen Component Index, which rose by 1.26% [2][12]. Key Events - Significant events in the commercial aerospace sector include: 1. The successful first flight of the Zhuque-3 rocket, achieving orbit but failing to recover the first stage [3][13]. 2. The upcoming first flight of the Long March 12 rocket, which will attempt reusability [3][13]. 3. The Shanghai Songjiang Satellite Internet Industry Conference, where major players discussed advancements in satellite technology [16]. 4. The initiation of a tender for phased array terminals by China StarNet, indicating a focus on ground terminal development [18]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies within the telecommunications sector, including: - ZTE Corporation (Buy, target price: 64.34 CNY) [38]. - Ruijie Networks (Buy, target price: 102.51 CNY) [38]. - China Telecom (Buy, target price: 9.11 CNY) [38]. - NewEase (Buy, target price: 476.71 CNY) [38]. - China Mobile (Buy, target price: 126.20 CNY) [38]. - Zhongji Xuchuang (Buy, target price: 626.68 CNY) [38]. - Haige Communications (Buy, target price: 13.70 CNY) [38]. - Shanghai Hanyun (Buy, target price: 28.28 CNY) [38]. - China Unicom (Hold, target price: 7.56 CNY) [38]. Performance Highlights - The report notes that the top-performing stocks in the past week included: - Aerospace Development (up 52.26%) - Tianfu Communication (up 25.79%) - Shanghai Hanyun (up 24.98%) [10]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the commercial aerospace sector is poised for further growth, particularly in ground terminal applications and satellite manufacturing, as the industry approaches critical technological milestones [2][3][18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Hold" with a target price of RMB 28.30 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company, Diya Co., is a leading brand in China's diamond ring industry, actively expanding its gold product line and optimizing its channel layout, showing gradual improvement in performance [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 1.156 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 103 million, a significant increase of 408.0% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company continues to optimize inefficient stores and has introduced new products, which have driven a rapid increase in same-store sales [1][3]. Revenue and Profitability - Online self-operated revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached RMB 230 million, a year-on-year increase of 45.8%, while offline direct sales revenue was RMB 820 million, a decrease of 5.0% due to net store closures [2]. - The overall gross margin for the company in the first three quarters was 66.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, with core business gross margin at 68.0%, up 2.3 percentage points [2]. Store Optimization and Efficiency - The company closed 32 stores during the first three quarters of 2025, with a net store closure rate slowing down compared to the previous year [3]. - The average revenue per store increased to RMB 2.65 million, a year-on-year growth of 31%, while sales and management expense ratios improved significantly [3]. Product Innovation and Market Expansion - The company focuses on two emotional expression scenarios: "Proposal" and "Wedding," with new product launches in the gold jewelry category [4]. - Diya Co. is actively expanding into overseas markets, achieving significant exposure on platforms like TikTok, with a total exposure of 689 million times by the first half of 2025 [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 52% and 44% to RMB 136 million and RMB 203 million, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at RMB 251 million [5][12]. - The company is currently in a brand transformation phase, leading to significant earnings volatility, and a price-to-book (PB) valuation method is now applied, with a target price set at RMB 28.30 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 85.20 [1][4][5] Core Views - The company has demonstrated resilience amid fluctuations in the overseas MDI market, attributed to high energy costs and aging facilities affecting European competitors. The company maintains stable operations and good profitability due to its cost and scale advantages [1][2] - Recent price increases in MDI products globally, driven by supply disruptions and maintenance in major overseas plants, have led to an upward revision of the company's profit expectations for 2025. The recovery of MDI market conditions is anticipated alongside China's economic recovery and sustained overseas demand [1][2][4] - The report highlights that while the domestic MDI supply is expected to remain ample due to new capacity additions, short-term demand may stabilize due to weak real estate performance and reduced appliance demand. The sustainability of high MDI prices may be limited, but the company is well-positioned to benefit from any market recovery [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The global MDI market is experiencing price increases, with major companies like Hunstman and BASF raising prices by USD 200 to EUR 350. As of December 5, 2025, the domestic pure MDI price in China reached RMB 19,500 per ton, an 11% increase since the end of September [2] - China's MDI production capacity is projected to grow by 27% to 5.55 million tons in 2025, with the company expected to add 700,000 tons of new capacity in 2026. However, the domestic MDI market faces challenges from increased supply and weak demand in the short term [3][4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 12.57 billion, a 2% increase from previous estimates. For 2026 and 2027, net profits are projected to be RMB 17.79 billion and RMB 20.82 billion, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 42% and 17% [4][9] - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15x for 2026, leading to a target price of RMB 85.20, which corresponds to a 14x P/E for 2026 [4][9]

证券研究报告 多元金融 公募考核改革引导归本溯源 华泰研究 2025 年 12 月 07 日│中国内地 动态点评 多元金融 增持 (维持) | 沈娟 | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570514040002 | shenjuan@htsc.com | | SFC No. BPN843 | +(86) 755 2395 2763 | | 汪煜 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570523010003 | wangyu017005@htsc.com | | SFC No. BRZ146 | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 孙亦欣* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070004 sunyixin@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 行业走势图 (19) (9) 1 10 20 Dec-24 Apr-25 Aug-25 Dec-25 (%) 多元金融 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 公募考核改革引导归本溯源 据财联社，近日《基金管理公司绩效考核管理指引（征求意见稿）》已下发， 是近年来公募基金系列改革的又一重要里程碑。相较于 ...