今日早参 2026 年 1 月 14 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 陈慎 房地产行业首席研究员 座机：021 38476038 邮箱：chenshen@htsc.com 陈慎 房地产行业首席研究员 座机：021 38476038 邮箱：chenshen@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：美国 12 月通胀反弹幅度低于预期 12 月核心 CPI 环比增速不及预期，并未出现此前市场普遍预期的因政府关 门影响消退所带来的明显反弹。12 月核心 CPI 环比 0.2%，较 11 月（较 9 月复合增速，下同）边际上行 0.16pp，不及预期（彭博一致预期，下同）的 0.3%，核心 CPI 同比持平于 2.6%，符合预期；12 月 CPI 环比 0.3%，较 11 月边际上行 0.21pp，CPI 同比持平于 2.7%，均符合预期。由于 12 月核心 CPI 环比不及预期，截至北京时间 23 点整，较数据公布前，联储降息预期 持平于 52bp，2y、10y 美债收益率均下行 2bp 分别至 3.45%、4.17%，美 元指数基本持平于 99，标普 500 期货先涨后跌基本持平。 风险提 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 8.00 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated robust growth in retail sales, with both the main brand and children's clothing achieving approximately 10% year-on-year growth in 4Q25, continuing a steady growth trend despite high base effects [1][11]. - E-commerce sales recorded a high double-digit growth in 4Q25, indicating strong performance in online channels [7][11]. - The company is enhancing its brand power through innovative products and marketing strategies, including the introduction of "super stores" to upgrade channel efficiency and expand international presence [5][11]. Summary by Sections Operational Performance - In 4Q25, the main brand and children's clothing retail sales both achieved approximately 10% year-on-year growth, maintaining a steady growth trend [1][11]. - The e-commerce platform saw overall sales achieve high double-digit year-on-year growth, continuing a solid performance [7][11]. Product and Marketing Strategy - The company launched new products in various categories, including running, basketball, and outdoor gear, which have received significant market attention [6]. - The introduction of "super stores" is expected to enhance customer acquisition and sales efficiency, with a notable increase in new customer ratios [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 10,074 million in 2024 to RMB 14,019 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.30% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1,149 million in 2024 to RMB 1,655 million by 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company is assigned a target PE of 10.1x for 2026, with a target price of HKD 8.00, reflecting a discount compared to comparable companies due to its current brand scale and market share [9][13].

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - In the second week of January, the real estate sector showed a significant decline in new home heat, while second-hand homes saw a slight increase, remaining below last year's levels, indicating a need for price improvement [2] - Industrial production showed a widening year-on-year decline in freight volume, with a mixed performance in production rates across sectors, particularly in coking and chemicals, while construction materials like cement showed a slight narrowing in supply-demand decline [2] - External demand indicators showed a year-on-year decline in throughput, but continued resilience in exports to South Korea and Vietnam, while consumer demand for travel and automotive purchases showed signs of recovery [2] Group 2: Real Estate Sector Analysis - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a recovery, with November housing prices continuing to rise, and December private residential transaction volumes significantly increasing year-on-year, reaching a twenty-year high for new home sales [6] - Retail sales in Hong Kong showed a rebound, with November retail rental declines significantly narrowing, indicating a positive trend for commercial real estate [6] - The report recommends focusing on Hong Kong-listed property companies, particularly New World Development and Link REIT, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the market [6] Group 3: Electric Power Equipment and New Energy - The adjustment of export tax rebates for battery products is expected to lead to a short-term surge in battery exports, intensifying supply-demand tensions in lithium and related sectors, while long-term effects may favor companies with overseas production capabilities [7] - Recommended companies include CATL, EVE Energy, and others, which are well-positioned to benefit from the changing landscape in the battery industry [7] Group 4: Nonferrous Metals Sector - The report indicates that profits in the electrolytic aluminum sector are expected to rise in the first half of 2026, driven by a tightening supply-demand balance despite current weak downstream purchasing sentiment [8] - The anticipated seasonal demand in the "golden three silver four" months is expected to support aluminum prices and profit margins [8] Group 5: Technology Sector Developments - NVIDIA's acquisition of Groq is highlighted as a significant strategic move, emphasizing the importance of low-latency inference technology in the evolving AI landscape [9] - This acquisition is expected to enhance NVIDIA's capabilities in the Agentic AI sector, aligning with industry trends towards more responsive AI systems [9] Group 6: Semiconductor Industry Insights - The report discusses the increasing capital expenditure in the semiconductor cleanroom sector, driven by the demand for advanced manufacturing processes, with expectations of significant growth in the global semiconductor market [11] - Companies involved in cleanroom construction are expected to see improved profitability due to the high demand and limited supply of skilled labor in overseas markets [11] Group 7: Key Company Recommendations - Junwei Electronics is recommended for a buy rating, with a target price of 42.1 yuan, as it transitions from a precision resistor leader to a comprehensive current detection solution provider [12] - The report also highlights the potential of WeRide, with a buy rating and target prices set for both Hong Kong and US markets, due to its dual focus on domestic and international markets for autonomous driving [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NVIDIA with a target price of $280.00 [7]. Core Insights - The acquisition of Groq by NVIDIA, valued at approximately $20 billion, is seen as a strategic move to enhance NVIDIA's capabilities in low-latency inference technology, which is crucial for the evolving landscape of Agentic AI [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that the integration of Groq's deterministic technology into NVIDIA's existing CUDA and GPU frameworks will help define the technical standards for the "second half" of AI, focusing on real-time applications that require low latency [3][4]. - The shift from a throughput-oriented training phase to a latency-sensitive execution phase is highlighted as a significant trend, with 2026 expected to mark the emergence of Agentic AI as a mainstream technology [3][4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Groq's Strategic Importance - Groq's core product, the Language Processing Unit (LPU), is designed specifically for inference computing, addressing the latency-throughput tradeoff inherent in general GPU architectures [9][10]. - The report posits that Groq's architecture is tailored for real-time, interactive inference scenarios, making it a complementary technology to NVIDIA's GPU offerings [11]. Section 2: Architectural Differences - Groq's architecture prioritizes deterministic execution through a compiler-driven design, contrasting with NVIDIA's reliance on runtime scheduling mechanisms [12][15]. - The LPU's integration of high-speed SRAM allows for significantly lower memory access latency compared to traditional GPUs, which rely on external HBM [22][23]. Section 3: Market Segmentation and Economic Viability - The report identifies a growing market for latency-sensitive inference, transitioning from niche applications to foundational infrastructure needs, thereby justifying Groq's higher initial capital investments [39][40]. - It highlights that in scenarios where response speed is critical, Groq's architecture can provide a competitive edge in terms of operational costs per token processed [37][41]. Section 4: Competitive Landscape - The report discusses the competitive dynamics between Groq and NVIDIA, noting that while Groq focuses on low-latency inference, NVIDIA continues to dominate in high-throughput training and batch processing [11][38]. - The potential for a hybrid deployment strategy is suggested, where Groq's speed advantages complement NVIDIA's capacity strengths in AI infrastructure [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several commercial real estate companies, including Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Link REIT, and others [10][5]. Core Insights - The C-REIT market is entering a comprehensive development era, with significant potential for commercial real estate REITs, driven by abundant stock, high adaptability for securitization, and strong market recognition [1][12]. - The report emphasizes that commercial real estate REITs can enhance asset liquidity and facilitate value reassessment for related enterprises, particularly benefiting those deeply engaged in commercial real estate and management services [1][12]. - The potential market size for domestic commercial real estate REITs could reach trillions, with a current market value of only 40.8 billion, indicating substantial growth opportunities [3][12]. Summary by Sections International Comparison - In the U.S. and Japan, commercial real estate constitutes a significant portion of REITs, with respective shares of 43% and 55% as of November 2025 [2][16]. - The report highlights that income volatility affects risk premiums and valuation differences, with hotel REITs showing the highest dividend yields and office REITs the lowest due to their sensitivity to economic fluctuations [2][16]. Domestic Outlook - The report forecasts a substantial expansion potential for C-REITs, particularly in the retail sector, as domestic demand mirrors that of the U.S. market [3][56]. - Factors driving the growth of commercial real estate REITs include the emergence of projects with management premiums and location advantages, as well as a significant stock of quality assets [3][12]. Market Style - The report suggests that the C-REIT market may adopt a fixed-income plus investment mindset, similar to Japan's market style, with stable assets likely to present valuation premiums [14][56]. - It notes that the domestic REITs market is expected to benefit from the recent regulatory changes that broaden the asset base to include office buildings and hotels [3][56]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in established commercial real estate operators and property management companies with management premiums and strategic advantages, including Longfor Group, China Resources Land, and others [5][15].

证券研究报告 科技 关注 NV Rubin 升级：计算/网络/系统 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 12 日│中国内地 行业周报（第二周） 本周观点 市场方面，上周通信（申万）指数上涨 1.66%，同期上证综指上涨 3.82%， 深证成指上涨 4.40%。美国当地时间 1 月 5 日，英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋在 CES 2026 会上介绍新一代 Rubin 平台，我们观察到 Rubin 系列在计算、网络和 系统三个层面完成升级，随着 Vera Rubin NVL72 机柜导入市场，北美 AI 算力链有望引来新一轮需求，建议关注光模块、铜连接、液冷等产业链。 周专题：CES 2026：关注英伟达 Rubin 升级：计算/网络/系统 美国当地时间 1 月 5 日，英伟达创始人兼 CEO 黄仁勋在 CES 2026 上对 Rubin 平台进行了详细介绍，我们观察到：1）计算层面：Rubin GPU 推理 性能提升至 5 倍、训练性能提升至 3.5 倍；Vera CPU 的数据分析性能和压 缩性能均为前代 Grace CPU 的 2 倍；2）网络层面，NVLink 6 使 GPU 间 互连带宽提升至 3.6 TB/s（ ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The forecast for the US GDP growth in 2026 has been raised to 2.6%, up from a previous estimate of 2.3%, driven by factors including the upcoming midterm elections and potential policy changes from the Trump administration [2][3] - The report highlights a potential rebound in inflation in the second half of 2026, despite a slight downward adjustment in inflation predictions due to various economic factors [2][3] - Structural issues in the US economy, such as asset price inflation and income inequality, are expected to worsen, indicating a "K-shaped" recovery [2][3] Group 2: Real Estate Policies - The Trump administration has announced a series of real estate policies aimed at stimulating demand, including a $200 billion mortgage-backed securities purchase plan and restrictions on large institutional investors in the single-family housing market [3][4] - These measures are expected to provide marginal support to the real estate market but may not effectively address housing affordability issues [3][4] Group 3: Employment Data - In December, the US added 50,000 non-farm jobs, falling short of the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 70,000, with the unemployment rate decreasing to 4.4% [5] - The labor participation rate declined to 62.4%, while hourly wage growth showed a slight increase, indicating a mixed employment landscape [5] Group 4: Sector Performance - The report suggests that the A-share market is experiencing a "spring rally," with a focus on sectors such as gaming, duty-free, batteries, engineering machinery, and agricultural chemicals for potential investment opportunities [7] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from a combination of factors, including improved liquidity and upward revisions in profit expectations [8] Group 5: REITs Market - Recent policies from the China Securities Regulatory Commission and stock exchanges are expected to enhance the REITs market, promoting high-quality development amid OCI disturbances [22] - The report indicates that the REITs market may experience improved sentiment and quality as it enters a new phase of development [22] Group 6: Semiconductor Industry - The report emphasizes the growing demand for cleanroom facilities in the semiconductor industry, driven by increased capital expenditure from global tech giants [23] - The cleanroom engineering services sector is expected to see a rise in order rates, benefiting from the demand for advanced manufacturing processes [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and engineering sector and the building materials sector [9] Core Insights - The construction activity indicators have shown significant improvement at the beginning of 2026, with increased operating rates for cement mills and concrete mixing stations, alongside a rise in building steel sales [12][20] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to see a surge in demand for high-temperature materials and perovskite materials due to the acceleration of satellite launches [12][13] - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy between emerging industries and traditional sectors in Q1 2026, with a focus on companies like Jinggong Steel Structure, Sichuan Road and Bridge, and China Nuclear Engineering [12][10] Summary by Sections Construction and Engineering - The construction sector is benefiting from improved PMI indicators and government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, with a focus on steel structures and fiberglass [12][13] - Key metrics include a national cement mill operating rate of 36.6%, up 6.6 percentage points month-on-month and 14.1 percentage points year-on-year [12] Building Materials - The report highlights a slight decrease in national cement prices by 0.1% to 358 CNY per ton, with a 38.7% shipment rate [20] - The average price of float glass is reported at 60 CNY per weight box, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.2% [21] Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - China National Materials (600970 CH) with a target price of 14.23 CNY and a "Buy" rating [10] - Sichuan Road and Bridge (600039 CH) with a target price of 13.48 CNY and a "Buy" rating [10] - Jinggong Steel Structure (600496 CH) with a target price of 5.75 CNY and a "Buy" rating [10] - Other recommended companies include China Glass (600176 CH), Oriental Yuhong (002271 CH), and Huaneng Renewables (600552 CH) [10][31]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" [6] Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of the battery export tax rebate is expected to boost exports in 2026 and optimize the industry structure, benefiting companies with overseas production capacity [1][2] - The reduction in export tax rates aims to curb low-price competition in the export market and promote the exit of outdated production capacity [2][3] - The battery export tax rebate will lead to two rounds of export rush before the end of 2026, tightening supply and demand across the lithium battery supply chain [3][4] Summary by Sections Export Tax Rebate Adjustment - The export tax rebate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and will be eliminated entirely from January 1, 2027 [1] - This policy is expected to drive a surge in battery exports in 2026, intensifying supply-demand tensions in lithium mining and lithium hexafluorophosphate [1][2] Supply Chain Impact - The reduction in export tax is anticipated to tighten the supply-demand balance in the lithium battery industry, with major lithium material utilization rates projected at 92% for lithium hexafluorophosphate and 81% for copper foil in 2026 [3] - The ongoing demand for energy storage and the increasing sales of new energy vehicles in Europe are expected to further support this tightening [3] Recommendations - Companies with established overseas production capacity, such as CATL and Yiwei Lithium Energy, are recommended for investment [1][4] - Other companies in the supply chain, including Tianqi Lithium, New Chemical Materials, and Shangtai Technology, are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the tightening supply-demand dynamics [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 14.00, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14.6 times FY2026E [1][4]. Core Insights - The company showcased its significant position in the global AI industry during the Lenovo Tech World event, highlighting collaborations with major chip manufacturers like NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm [1]. - The launch of the Lenovo Qira personal AI superintelligence marks a strategic shift from application-level to system-level AI, enhancing user engagement and creating a differentiated software ecosystem [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the global upgrade of the AI hardware and software ecosystem, with projected non-HKFRS net profits of USD 1.664 billion, USD 1.854 billion, and USD 2.083 billion for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 15.5%, 11.4%, and 12.4% [4]. Summary by Sections AI Infrastructure - The company launched a new AI inference server, ThinkSystem SR675i, in collaboration with AMD, optimized for large-scale data center scenarios [2]. - A partnership with NVIDIA was announced to establish an AI cloud super factory, leveraging NVIDIA's accelerated computing platform [2]. Personal AI Development - The Lenovo Qira personal AI superintelligence integrates seamlessly across Lenovo PCs, tablets, and Motorola devices, enhancing user experience with capabilities like context awareness and task switching [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of USD 75.844 billion, USD 83.447 billion, and USD 91.865 billion for FY26, FY27, and FY28, with respective growth rates of 9.8%, 10.0%, and 10.1% [9]. - Non-HKFRS EPS is projected to be USD 0.12, USD 0.14, and USD 0.15 for FY26, FY27, and FY28 [4].