证券研究报告 老铺黄金 (6181 HK) 港股通 看好老铺春节销售旺季等多重催化 | 华泰研究 | | | 动态点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 | 25 日│中国香港 | | 目标价(港币): | 1,200.00 | 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 fanjunhao@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 惠普 研究员 huipu@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (港币 截至 1 月 23 日) | 788.00 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (港币百万) | 138,994 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (港币百万) | 978.10 | | 52 周价格范围 (港币) | 353.80-1,108.00 | 股价走势图 (2) 48 98 147 197 Jan-25 May-25 Sep-25 Jan-26 (%) 老铺黄金 恒生指数 资料来源：S&P ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 79.64 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company's stock repurchase plan, with a total amount of RMB 100-200 million and a maximum repurchase price of RMB 78.0 per share, reflects management's confidence in long-term growth. This repurchase scale and price are at historical highs, indicating a strong belief in future performance [6][7]. - The company is expected to benefit from the release of overseas production capacity and the growth of its proprietary brands, which aligns with industry trends [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Projected revenue for 2024 is RMB 4,465 million, with a growth rate of 19.15%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach RMB 8,764 million, growing at 25.77% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 393.80 million in 2024, increasing to RMB 724.59 million by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 31.34% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from RMB 1.29 in 2024 to RMB 2.38 in 2027 [5]. Market Position and Trends - The company's proprietary brands, such as "Wang Pi" and "Ling Xian," are experiencing rapid growth, with projected GMV growth rates of 16% and 58% respectively for 2025 [8]. - The introduction of new product lines, such as the "Pong Pong" series, aligns with market trends towards functional and prescription pet food, indicating a strategic response to consumer demands [8]. Production and Capacity - The progress of the second factory in the United States is on track, which, along with the capacity release from factories in Mexico and Canada, is expected to mitigate tariff impacts [9]. - The exchange rate fluctuations are anticipated to have a manageable impact on revenue, with the USD to RMB exchange rate decreasing from 7.12 to 6.99, suggesting a limited effect on earnings [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the banking and securities sectors [6]. Core Insights - The financial sector shows a strategic allocation opportunity, with increased fund positions in banking, securities, and insurance stocks [1][5]. - The banking sector's fund position has slightly increased, indicating a return of risk appetite among investors [2][13]. - The securities sector is experiencing a recovery in fund positions, driven by market activity and performance expectations [3][5]. - The insurance sector has seen a significant increase in fund positions, with major insurance stocks being favored by investors [4][5]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector - As of Q4 2025, the banking sector's fund position increased by 0.04 percentage points to 1.89%, with large banks and joint-stock banks seeing gains, while city commercial banks experienced a decline [2][13]. - The top three heavy-weighted stocks in the banking sector account for 46.0% of the total fund position, indicating a concentration in holdings [13][27]. - The dividend yield for A/H shares in the banking sector is approximately 4.87%/4.88%, making it attractive compared to the 10-year government bond yield of 1.83% [5]. Securities Sector - The securities sector's fund position rose by 0.10 percentage points to 0.72%, although it remains at a historically low level [3][5]. - Major securities firms like CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan have been favored for their performance potential amidst market recovery [5][8]. - The average price-to-book ratio for large and small securities firms is 1.44x and 1.67x, respectively, indicating they are trading at 27% and 42% of their historical averages [5]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's fund position increased by 0.94 percentage points to 1.72%, with major stocks like Ping An and China Pacific receiving significant increases in holdings [4][5]. - The insurance index's price-to-book ratio is at 1.53x, which is at the 40th percentile of valuations since 2014, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [4][5]. - Strong sales performance in life insurance is noted, with a focus on high-elasticity stocks as key investment opportunities [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the electric power and new energy sectors, including Ningde Times, Mingyang Electric, and Sunshine Power [6]. Core Insights - The focus on affordability in the U.S. AI power sector is expected to influence the mid-term elections in 2026, with significant price increases in wholesale electricity driven by rising gas prices and capacity costs [2][15]. - The report highlights the potential for a significant increase in capacity prices due to the growing demand from data centers, which are projected to account for 95% of the incremental capacity [2][23]. - The "Energy as a Service" (EAAS) model is identified as a viable solution for data centers to achieve rapid power access while internalizing costs, with an estimated annual installation demand of 29-45 GW from 2026 to 2030 [4][31]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Price Increases and Capacity Demand - The PJM wholesale electricity price increased by 43.7% year-on-year, with gas prices contributing 66% and capacity price increases contributing 30% [2][15]. - The report estimates that capacity prices could rise by 100% to 300% from current levels due to the demand from data centers [2][15]. Section 2: Energy as a Service (EAAS) Model - The EAAS model is projected to maintain a demand of 29-45 GW per year from 2026 to 2030, with small gas turbines being economically advantageous [4][31]. - This model allows data centers to meet their urgent power needs while minimizing the impact on overall electricity costs [4][31]. Section 3: Electric Grid and Regulatory Changes - The report emphasizes the need for accelerated approval processes for electric grid and power sources to reduce electricity costs through economies of scale [3][31]. - Recent regulatory changes, including FERC's proposals, aim to streamline the approval process for large loads and enhance the capacity of the electric grid [31][40]. Section 4: Recommendations for Key Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Ningde Times, Mingyang Electric, and Sunshine Power, all rated as "Buy" [9]. - Other recommended companies include Guodian NARI, Dongfang Electric, and Harbin Electric, which are positioned to benefit from the rising demand for electric power equipment [9]. Section 5: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in household solar storage demand driven by rising electricity prices, with potential for significant market growth [5][10]. - The overall electric power market is expected to experience a structural shift due to the increasing load from data centers, necessitating a reevaluation of investment strategies in the sector [31][35].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report emphasizes the long-term value of precious metals like gold and silver due to geopolitical restructuring and deteriorating fiscal sustainability, suggesting a need to adjust pricing systems for scarce real assets and core equity assets [2][3] - It highlights that the global investment cycle post-2026 will be more "material-intensive," with demand for key commodities in AI and defense sectors remaining price-sensitive [2] Group 2: Market Strategy - The report suggests a focus on technology and cyclical "material" sectors to lead the rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, with a positive outlook for the first quarter [3] - It notes that the sentiment index has returned to neutral, indicating a potential for continued market recovery, particularly in AI chains and innovative pharmaceuticals [3] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Botai Carlink is highlighted as a leading player in smart cockpit solutions, with a target price of 286.67 HKD and expected revenue CAGR of 43.8% from 2025 to 2027, driven by its competitive advantages in high-end SoC platforms and the Harmony ecosystem [11] - Chuanheng Co., a leader in the phosphate chemical industry, is rated "Buy" with a target price of 50.73 CNY, benefiting from a tight global phosphate supply-demand situation and expected growth in its phosphate-related businesses [11] - Laopu Gold is expected to perform well during the Spring Festival sales season, with ongoing expansion and strong sales performance, maintaining a "Buy" rating [14] Group 4: Financial Sector Insights - The report indicates that financial stocks have seen increased positions, with banks and brokers experiencing slight increases in fund holdings, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [9] - China Merchants Bank shows marginal improvement in operating performance, with a stable asset quality and a "Buy" rating maintained for both A and H shares [17] Group 5: Industry Trends - The report notes that the small-cap stocks have shown high crowding, particularly in sectors like building materials and textiles, suggesting limited upside potential in the short term [5] - The report also discusses the strong demand for wind power in the domestic market, with New Strong Union expected to benefit from increased TRB bearing penetration, maintaining an "Increase" rating [16]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Chuanheng Co., Ltd. with a "Buy" rating, assigning a target price of RMB 50.73 based on a 19x PE for 2026 [1][8][6]. Core Insights - Chuanheng Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the domestic phosphate chemical industry, possessing a nominal phosphate rock capacity of 3.3 million tons. The company's self-owned phosphate mines contribute to its high gross margin in the industry. The global phosphate supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight in the next 1-2 years, benefiting the company. Additionally, the anticipated growth in new energy demand is expected to enhance the company's business in iron phosphate, ammonium phosphate, and phosphoric acid [1][15][19]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.31 billion, RMB 1.62 billion, and RMB 1.8 billion for the years 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 37%, 24%, and 11%, respectively [6][12]. Summary by Sections Phosphate Supply and Demand - The global expansion of phosphate rock production is slow due to limited new supply overseas and regulatory constraints in China. The demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to grow by 3% annually starting in 2024, driven by the expansion of arable land and increasing new energy needs. The projected global phosphate rock supply-demand gap is estimated to reach 178,000 tons, 95,000 tons, and 121,000 tons from 2025 to 2027 [2][14]. New Energy Demand - The demand for phosphate chemical products has significantly increased due to the rise in lithium battery materials. Although there was a notable price drop in 2023-2024 due to concentrated production, the demand for energy storage and power batteries is expected to improve, leading to a recovery in the industry. The company's iron phosphate and industrial-grade ammonium phosphate are anticipated to benefit from this trend [3][16]. Profitability and Dividend Policy - The company has entered a growth realization phase, with a significant reduction in its debt ratio and an attractive dividend yield. The dividend payout ratio has increased to around 70%, with expected dividend yields of 3.7%, 4.5%, and 5.0% for 2025-2027 [17][33]. The company’s net profit for 2024 is projected to be RMB 956.48 million, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 37% since 2021 [17][12]. Market Perspective - The report contrasts with market concerns regarding the sustainability of tight phosphate supply. It argues that the demand for phosphate fertilizers remains robust, and the growth in iron phosphate production capacity will support continued tightness in supply. The company is expected to benefit from high phosphate prices and a favorable cost structure due to its significant export share [5][18]. Company Overview - Chuanheng Co., Ltd. is recognized as a leading integrated phosphate chemical enterprise in China, with a comprehensive production base from phosphate mining to fine phosphate chemicals. The company has a total phosphate rock capacity of 3.3 million tons and has been expanding its production capabilities [19][24].

证券研究报告 川恒股份 (002895 CH) 受益于行业高景气的磷化工一体化企业 2026 年 1 月 25 日│中国内地 农用化工 首次覆盖川恒股份给予"买入"评级，予以公司 26 年 19xPE，目标价 50.73 元。公司是国内磷化工的龙头企业，拥有磷矿名义产能 330 万吨，自有磷 矿优势使公司磷化工毛利率处于行业前列。受益于未来 1-2 年的全球磷矿供 需紧平衡局势，我们认为公司磷矿仍有望延续景气，且在新能源需求增长预 期下，公司的磷酸铁、工铵、磷酸等业务亦有望贡献弹性。公司股息拥有较 高吸引力，我们假设公司在 70%股利支付率水平下，25-27 年股息率达 3.7%/4.5%/5.0%。 全球磷矿扩产速度较慢，化肥和新能源需求支撑行业供需趋紧 由于海外磷矿新增有限，中国磷矿受制于超采监管、安全生产和环保要求， 小磷矿持续退出且新产能投产流程延长，综合导致全球磷矿扩产较慢，我们 预计 25-27 年磷矿新增产能约 401/947/658 万吨，主要集中于中国。而需求 端由于全球耕地面积扩张，24 年起磷肥需求每年呈 3%增长，21 年后新能 源需求进一步加剧供需紧张。我们测算 25-27 年全球磷 ...

证券研究报告 市场或逐步切向业绩修复方向 策略 逐步切换向绩优方向 2026 年 1 月 25 日│中国内地 国内周报 核心观点 上周 A 股市场在资金情绪分化下，小盘股涨幅居前，行业轮动持续，向后 看，资金面的弹性及后续轮动方向是市场主要关注点。我们认为 1 月中旬以 来，宽基 ETF 流出金额虽偏高，但考虑到险资等仍有增量、投资者存在套 利需求，市场持续放量下，资金侧仍有接力动能。轮动方向或由主题逐步切 往存在业绩印证的方向，历史复盘来看，业绩预告披露期内的，景气具备持 续修复能力的行业通常具备一定超额收益，具体到本轮，景气修复的线索或 主要集中在涨价链、高端制造及 AI 链中，结合拥挤度进一步考量，配置上 可关注电力设备、基础化工、半导体设备等，适度增配周期型红利。 资金侧仍有接力动能 1 月中旬以来，市场主要的宽基 ETF 净流出超 5000 亿元，挂钩沪深 300 的 ETF 是主要流出项，剔除涨跌幅以赎回份额统计，沪深 300ETF、中证 500ETF、中证 1000ETF 份额分别减少 29%、16%、45%。市场关心在 ETF 赎回下，资金后续的承接力量如何，我们认为：1）市场成交额仍在高位区 ...

证券研究报告 必选消费 看好 AKK 菌产业链投资机会 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 24 日│中国内地 动态点评 AKK 益生菌——嗜粘蛋白阿克曼氏菌（Akkermansia muciniphila，简称 AKK）是一种独特的肠道共生菌，据上海交通大学医学院附属瑞金医院公众 号数据，AKK 益生菌占肠道菌群的 1%-5%；另据中国食品学报，AKK 益生 菌在改善肥胖、调节血糖血脂及代谢、抗炎等方面有积极作用，并具有潜在 的抗衰研究价值。 中国益生菌市场潜力较大，AKK 菌商业化落地加速 功效明显与技术进步共促中国市场 AKK 菌的成长势头可期 据仙乐健康公众号数据，2024 年全球 AKK 菌市场规模约 23.5 亿元人民币， 预计将在 2031 年快速增长至 44.6 亿元，对应期间 CAGR 为 9.6%，而中国 市场的势头或将更为强劲，预计在 2031 年市场规模有望突破 10 亿元，市 场渗透率约 20%；在中国，AKK 菌相关产品线上销售额从 25 年 1 月的 600 万元冲至 6 月的 2300 万元（来源魔镜洞察数据）。当前 AKK 处于快速发 展阶段，主要的增长驱动因素为较强的功效性与供 ...

证券研究报告 英特尔(INTEL) (INTC US) 制程追赶初见成效,看好 18A 订单落地 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 23 日 | 美国 年报点评 半导体 英特尔 25Q4 业绩超预期,但 26Q1 指引液软且 18A 无客户更新,盘后股 价下跌超 12%(股价自 12/17 累计上涨 51%,也存在获利了结）。其中 1Q 指引审慎(或受季节性需求下供应约束影响),股价先下跌 6%;业绩会未 对 18A/14A 进展做更多更新,市场随之调整预期。我们认为,短期财报并 非核心，关键在于 Foundry 转型推进节奏,更应关注代工订单进展及制程 领先是否持续兑现。业绩端:Q4 营收 137 亿美元,同比-4.1%,超 VA 预 期（下同）2.1%（全年营收 529 亿美元,同比持平）;Non-GAAP 毛利率 和 EPS 为 37.9%和 0.15 美元，高于预期的 36.3%和 0.08 美元，其中毛利 率高指引 1.4pp。指引端: Q1 营收 117-127 亿美元（预期 125 亿美元）, Non-GAAP 毛利率/EPS 为 34.5%/0.00 美元（预期 36.1%和 0.04 美元）, ...