证券研究报告 国补高基数或制约短期业绩释放 华泰研究 更新报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日│中国香港/美国 互联网 据国家统计局数据，10/11 月家电品类零售额分别同比下滑 14.6/19.4%，体 现出 2024 年 9 月以来国补行动对家电品类销售形成的高基数效应。考虑到 京东平台在国补行动中扮演的重要角色，我们预计 4Q25 京东零售或面临一 定的收入和利润增长压力。我们预计京东集团 4Q25 总收入同增 0.4%至 3,484 亿元（3Q25：+14.9%），经调整净利润 10 亿元；其中京东零售分 部收入同比-2.9%至 2,981 亿元（3Q25：+11.4%），环比降速主因带电品 类销售收入增速承压，我们预计京东零售分部经营利润 80 亿元，对应经营 利润率 2.7%，同比下滑 0.6pp。展望后续，建议持续关注：1）外卖业务在 迈出早期高投入阶段后的经营效率持续优化进程，以及平台新用户交叉销售 至电商业务的有效性和中长期留存效果；2）2026 年带电品类的潜在消费刺 激政策；3）海外等其他新业务的进展情况。我们期待以上相关业务的积极 进展支持其基本面兑现。维持"买入"评级。 家电品类销 ...

证券研究报告 金工 2025 年外资买入哪些中国资产 ETF 2025 年 12 月 21 日│中国内地 ETF 点评 ETF 市场观察：2025 年中国科技资产 ETF 获外资流入较多 截至 2025 年 12 月 20 日，2025 年以来全球投资于中国资产的 ETF 累计获 得 831 亿美元的资金净流入。其中，境内 ETF 累计获资金流入 786 亿美元， 境外 ETF 则累计净流入约 45 亿美元。从总体数值来看，外资买入中国资产 占比较小；然而，就内部分化情况来看，2025 年以来外资对境内资产的配 置存在显著倾向性：就行业分布来看，科技板块获外资流入最多，达 95 亿 美元，主要来自美国和欧洲地区；就具体产品而言，外资流入排名前 10 的 ETF 中有六只为科技 ETF，排名前 3 的 iShares 中国科技 UCITS ETF、 Invesco 中国科技 ETF 和 KraneShares CSI 中国互联网 ETF 获资金净流入 均超过 20 亿美元。 ETF 市场回顾：上周中证 A500 指数相关 ETF 获资金流入较多 上周（2025/12/15-2025/12/19）ETF 市场股票 ...

今日早参 2025 年 12 月 19 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。 1 银行与证券行业首席研究员 座机：0755-23952763 邮箱：shenjuan@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：11 月美国 CPI 大幅低于预期但噪音较大 美国 11 月 CPI 超预期降温，主要分项均出现回落，背后原因是关税影响相对 温和以及就业市场偏弱拖累通胀。CPI 同比下行 0.3pp 至 2.7%，低于预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 同比下行 0.4pp 至 2.6%，亦低于预期。11 月 CPI 环比增速 （相对 9 月复合环比增速，下同）降至 0.1%，核心 CPI 环比降至 0.08%， 也位于较低水平。截至北京时间 23 点 10 分，联储降息预期上行 1bp 至 63bp，2y、10y 美债持平，美元指数微跌 0.1%，标普 500 上涨 0.6%。 风险提示：关税对通胀影响超预期，美国企业年初调价超预期。 研报发布日期：2025-12-19 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 ...

证券研究报告 奥特维 (688516 CH) 股权激励业绩考核目标彰显信心 2025 年 12 月 18 日│中国内地 专用设备 公司发布公告：1）发布 2025 年股权激励计划草案，拟授予 570 万股限制 性股票，激励对象共 28 人，业绩考核要求以公司 2025 年净利润与 5 亿元 孰高为基数，2026/2027/2028年目标净利润增长率不低于 20%/40%/100%。 2）公司与某客户签订采购合同，向其销售串焊机等设备，合计销售额约 7 亿元。公司股权激励彰显信心、大单合同保障未来业绩，我们看好平台化布 局下公司未来增长空间，维持"买入"评级。 股权激励彰显公司信心，业绩有望重回快速增长轨道 公司发布 2025 年股权激励计划草案，拟授予 570 万股限制性股票（占总股 本 1.81%），首次授予 487 万股（占总股本 1.54%）；激励对象共 28 人， 包括公司高管、核心技术/骨干人员等。业绩考核要求方面，以公司 2025 年 净利润与 5 亿元孰高为基数，2026/2027/2028 年目标净利润增长率不低于 20%/40%/100%。对应 2026/2027/2028 年净利润不低于 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 广义财政支出增长边际回升 ——11 月财政数据点评 2025 年 12 月 18 日│中国内地 动态点评 11 月财政收入端数据显示国内经济活动总体保持平稳，微观体感并未出现 与消费、投资等宏观数据相同幅度下滑的"体感差"；广义财政支出同比增 速边际回升、修正后的广义财政支出（季调后）环比增长进一步上行，显示 用于形成实物工作量的广义财政支出力度维持韧性。具体看，企业投资和工 业生产活动总体保持平稳，今年前 11 个月增值税/企业所得税累计同比增长 3.9%/1.7%、快于去年全年的-3.8%/-0.5%，投资、工业生产等宏观数据走 弱可能受到高基数和口径变化等"技术性因素"扰动；另一方面，11 月广 义财政（一般公共预算+政府性基金）支出同比降幅较 10 月的 19.1%收窄 至 1.7%，剔除注资特别国债和用于化债的"特殊专项债"后同比降幅亦较 10 月的 20.2%收窄至 3.8%；此外，修正后的（季调后）广义财政支出环比 增长从 10 月的 15%进一步上行至 33%、可能主要反映政策性金融工具投放 和地方债务结存限额下发带动部分信用扩张、拉动投资需求。具体看， ▪ 支出端而言， ...

证券研究报告 金融 公募绩效考核优化，关注优质金融 华泰研究 2025 年 12 月 18 日│中国内地 行业月报 公募绩效考核优化，关注优质金融 25 年 11 月全市场发行理财产品 2631 份，环比+23.6%；公募基金新发份额 946 亿份，月环比+31%。12 月《基金管理公司绩效考核管理指引（征求意 见稿）》下发，强化长期业绩导向、提高强制跟投比例，并明确量化降薪问 责机制等，将基金公司及其核心投研人员的利益与投资者的长期利益深度绑 定。资本市场中长期稳步向上趋势不改，奠定资管产品发展基础。建议把握 优质个股，银行推荐零售及财富管理标杆招行 AH，财富管理战略地位提升 的宁波银行；券商推荐大财富管理产业链具备较强优势的广发 AH、东方 AH。 银行理财：存续规模微增，收益表现下行 根据基金业协会数据，截至 25Q2 末，券商资管规模为 6.14 万亿元，季度 环比+4%。2025 年 11 月新发份额 44.69 亿份，环比持平。从新发份额结构 上看，债券型占比最高，达 53.27%。 私募基金：存量规模环比增长，证券投资基金备案规模环比提升 根据基金业协会数据，截至 2025 年 10 月末，全 ...

今日早参 2025 年 12 月 18 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：广义财政支出增长边际回升 11 月财政收入端数据显示国内经济活动总体保持平稳，微观体感并未出现与 消费、投资等宏观数据相同幅度下滑的"体感差"；广义财政支出同比增速 边际回升、修正后的广义财政支出（季调后）环比增长进一步上行，显示用 于形成实物工作量的广义财政支出力度维持韧性。具体看，企业投资和工业 生产活动总体保持平稳，今年前 11 个月增值税/企业所得税累计同比增长 3.9%/1.7%、快于去年全年的-3.8%/-0.5%，投资、工业生产等宏观数据走弱 可能受到高基数和口径变化等"技术性因素"扰动；另一方面，11 月广义财 政（一般公共预算+政府性基金）支出同比降幅较 10 月的 19.1%收窄至 1.7%，剔除注资特别国债和用于化债的"特殊专项债"后同比降幅亦较 10 月的 20.2%收窄至 3.8%；此外，修正后的（季调后）广义财政支出环比增长 从 10 月的 15%进 ...

Macro Overview - In November, the US added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 50,000, while October saw a decline of 105,000 [2] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6% compared to September, with the labor participation rate increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5% [2] - Hourly wage growth slowed to 0.1% month-on-month, down from an expected 0.3% [2] - The market has slightly increased the expectation of cumulative interest rate cuts in 2026 to 60 basis points [2] Automotive Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology granted conditional approval for the first L3 vehicles from Changan and BAIC Blue Valley, marking a significant step towards the practical application of L3 autonomous driving technology [3] - The approval is expected to accelerate the restructuring of the smart driving industry chain, with significant investment opportunities in smart vehicles, control chassis, domain control chips, and lidar [3] Construction and Building Materials - From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) decreased by 1.1%, real estate by 15.9%, and manufacturing by 1.9% year-on-year, indicating pressure on investment demand [4] - The central political bureau emphasized the need to stabilize investment and expand domestic demand, suggesting that infrastructure investment may see a rebound [4] - Recommended stocks include Yaxiang Integrated, Meiyu Technology, Sichuan Road and Bridge, China National Materials, China Jushi, Huaxin Cement, Dongfang Yuhong, and Tubao [4] Real Estate Market - The report discusses the urgency of revitalizing the US real estate market under the Trump administration, focusing on improving housing affordability and mortgage liquidity as primary goals [5] - The report anticipates that short-term policies may focus on lowering mortgage rates and easing credit access, which could have expansionary effects on the economy but may exacerbate long-term structural issues [5] CXO Industry - The CXO industry is experiencing marginal improvements due to external factors, with expectations of a new high-growth cycle driven by overseas interest rate cuts and domestic recovery [10] - The report highlights the core competitiveness of Chinese CXO firms in efficiency, cost, quality, and rapid expansion capabilities, with a recommendation for leading firms such as WuXi AppTec and Kelaiying [10] Internet Sector - The local life market in Q3 2025 showed signs of optimization in the ride-hailing sector and expansion in the food delivery sector, with significant regional growth disparities [11] - The report indicates that the overall profit margin in the industry is on an upward trajectory, with expectations for annual profit margin expansion in the ride-hailing and food delivery segments [11] - Recommended companies include Meituan, Dash, Grab, and Uber [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the CXO industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [7]. Core Insights - The CXO industry is entering a new high prosperity cycle driven by external factors such as overseas interest rate cuts, domestic recovery, and industrial upgrades. The worst period for the industry is considered to be over, with a significant improvement in sentiment and operational conditions [1][2][17]. - The report emphasizes the competitive advantages of Chinese CXO companies, including efficiency, cost, quality, and rapid expansion capabilities, which are expected to maintain their global standing in the short to medium term [1][3][22]. - The emergence of new molecular drugs, such as peptides and oligonucleotides, is driving growth in the CRDMO sector, with Chinese suppliers positioned to lead globally due to their production capabilities and cost advantages [3][22][28]. Summary by Sections New Cycle - The CXO industry has transitioned from a prolonged adjustment period (2H21-1H24) to a new upward cycle, supported by recovering overseas financing and a favorable domestic IPO environment. The demand for CXO services is expected to increase significantly starting in 2026 [2][17]. New Molecules - New molecular CRDMO services are characterized by higher demand and technical barriers. Chinese companies are leading in areas like TIDES and ADC, achieving higher growth rates and maintaining robust profit margins [3][22][28]. New Landscape - The domestic CXO market is undergoing a restructuring, with market share increasingly concentrated among leading firms. The report highlights that smaller companies may struggle to survive due to heightened quality and sustainability demands from pharmaceutical clients [4][22][28]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies with strong positions in the new molecular space, such as WuXi AppTec, WuXi Biologics, and others, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing industry upgrades and demand recovery [1][9][22].

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent market conditions indicate a rebound in funds despite previous corrections, with A-share daily trading volume showing a decline, which may constrain upward momentum [2][3] - There is a notable increase in active buybacks and net inflows into broad-based ETFs, suggesting a strengthening of contrarian funds [2][3] - The current funding environment appears to have a "bottom" state, but further observation of incremental changes is necessary [2] Group 2: Economic Data Insights - November retail sales in China increased by 1.3% year-on-year to 4.4 trillion yuan, with a deceleration of 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, primarily due to the pre-promotion period of "Double Eleven" and elevated base effects in certain categories [3][4] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 2.5% year-on-year, indicating a potential for moderate recovery in domestic consumption driven by ongoing initiatives to boost consumer spending [3][4] Group 3: Real Estate Sector Analysis - The real estate sector is currently stabilizing, with December's central economic work conference reaffirming a commitment to stabilize the property market, supported by monetary easing measures [5] - Recommendations include focusing on "three good" real estate stocks characterized by strong credit, favorable locations, and quality products, as well as firms with robust operational capabilities to manage cash flow during market adjustments [5] Group 4: Transportation Sector Trends - Airline passenger load factors have shown significant year-on-year improvement, although seasonal effects are leading to a gradual decline in ticket prices [6] - The focus is shifting towards the performance of the upcoming Spring Festival in 2026, with expectations of low supply growth in the medium to long term, which may enhance pricing power for airlines [6] Group 5: Technology Sector Outlook - The global AI industry is at a pivotal point of capability leap and accelerated commercialization, with leading firms in the US and China shaping the landscape [8][9] - 2026 is anticipated to be a critical year for AI commercialization, as advancements in model capabilities and business models are expected to drive applications from mere usability to tangible value realization [8][9] Group 6: Company-Specific Developments - Pony.ai reported a revenue of $25.44 million for Q3 2025, reflecting a 72% year-on-year increase, driven by the positive impact of regulatory approval in Guangzhou [9] - Jack Technology appointed a new president, indicating a strategic shift aimed at achieving significant revenue growth, particularly in AI sewing machines and humanoid robots [10]