1 月 14 日，沪深北交易所将融资买入最低保证金比例由 80%上调至 100%， 这一调整清晰体现了监管逆周期调节的政策取向：融资是当前市场重要的增 量资金来源之一，开年来融资余额、融资交易占比持续走高，通过提高门槛 引导市场适度降杠杆。对比 2015 年类似的调整，我们认为本次调整有助于 平抑短期波动、稳定投资者预期，引导市场向节奏更健康、持续性更强的中 长期行情演化。对证券行业而言，短期两融增速或趋缓，但整体业务环境更 稳，建议关注资本实力、风控能力更强的头部券商配置机会，推荐中信 AH、 国泰海通 AH、广发 AH、中金 H。 将融资保证金比例由 80%提至 100% 证券研究报告 证券 融资保证金比例提升的信号意义 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 15 日│中国内地 动态点评 2015 年股市快速上行过程中，除场内两融外，场外配资规模失控、结构复 杂，各类高杠杆资金叠加放大波动，监管上调保证金比例更多是快速压降系 统性风险。本轮调整发生在两融杠杆整体可控的区间内，与历史高风险阶段 并不相同。截至 1 月 13 日，市场平均维持担保比例约为 288%，反映出当 前融资客户整体安全垫较厚、杠杆并未出现结 ...

Group 1: Securities Industry - The adjustment of the minimum margin requirement for margin trading from 80% to 100% by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges signals a regulatory counter-cyclical adjustment, aimed at guiding the market to reduce leverage appropriately and stabilize investor expectations [2][3] - The increase in margin requirements is expected to help smooth short-term volatility and lead the market towards a healthier and more sustainable medium to long-term trend [2] - Short-term growth in margin financing may slow down, but the overall business environment for the securities industry is expected to stabilize, with a recommendation to focus on leading brokerages with strong capital and risk control capabilities [2] Group 2: Oil and Gas/Chemicals Industry - The recent unrest in Iran due to rising prices and currency devaluation has raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices increasing by 6.5% and 7.6% respectively since the beginning of the month [3] - Iran is a significant supplier of urea and methanol, and prolonged conflict could disrupt natural gas supplies, leading to potential shortages in these chemicals globally [3] - Domestic companies with strong dividend yields and significant production capacities in urea and methanol are expected to benefit, with recommendations for companies like China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [3] Group 3: Macroeconomic Overview - December export figures showed a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 3.1%, while imports rose to 5.7% from 1.9% in November [4] - The trade surplus reached $114.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of $9 billion, indicating strong resilience in exports despite a slight decline in annual growth rate to 5.5% from 5.8% in 2025 [4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The forecast for net inflows into the A-share market in 2026 is projected at 1.6 trillion yuan, driven by long-term capital and retail investor participation, compared to 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025 [5] - The report highlights the investment potential of Angel Yeast, a leading global yeast producer, with a domestic market share of 55% and a global share of 22%, indicating strong revenue growth prospects [5] Group 5: Aviation Leasing - Bank of China Aviation Leasing reported a 9 aircraft increase in its fleet size quarter-on-quarter, reaching 451 aircraft, with 16 aircraft delivered in Q4 2025 [6] - The company’s financing exceeded $4 billion for the year, reflecting improved capital expenditure and fleet expansion, with expectations for core ROE to improve to 11% in 2025 and 12% in 2026 [6] Group 6: Consumer Goods - 361 Degrees reported a 10% year-on-year growth in retail sales for both its main and children's brands in Q4 2025, maintaining a steady growth trend [7] - The company is expected to enhance shareholder returns with a projected dividend yield of 6.2% for 2026, supported by innovative products and marketing strategies [7] Group 7: Toy Industry - Blokus has expanded its IP matrix and is expected to see significant growth in 2026, driven by new product lines and international market expansion [8] - Despite a challenging traditional toy market, the company anticipates a recovery in profitability in 2026, supported by successful new product launches and regional market development [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 55.55 RMB, reflecting a 24x PE for 2026 [6][8]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the global yeast industry, holding a market share of 55% in China and 22% globally as of 2024, ranking first and second respectively by capacity [17]. - The report addresses concerns regarding revenue stability and profit volatility, indicating that domestic demand remains resilient while overseas markets present significant growth opportunities [17][18]. - Short-term profit margins are expected to improve as the company is currently at a cyclical low, with a projected net profit margin of 8.7% for 2024, below the historical average of 11.1% since 2000 [20]. Revenue Analysis - The company's revenue distribution for Q1-Q3 2025 shows a split of 56% domestic and 44% overseas, with traditional yeast demand in China expected to grow steadily due to the expansion of the baking industry [18]. - Yeast extract (YE) products are anticipated to replace traditional chemical flavor enhancers, with a theoretical demand space in China nearing 400,000 tons, indicating substantial growth potential [18]. - The overseas market is characterized by competitive advantages in differentiated dry yeast products, with successful penetration into major clients like Nestlé and Unilever [18]. Profit Analysis - The company is positioned for short-term profit elasticity and long-term reduction in profit volatility, driven by factors such as declining molasses prices and improved cost control capabilities [20]. - The anticipated procurement price for molasses in the new season is expected to be around 800-900 RMB per ton, a decrease of 250-350 RMB per ton year-on-year, which is likely to enhance profit margins in 2026 [20]. - Long-term profit stability is expected to be supported by enhanced pricing power, reduced capital expenditure impacts, and cost savings from overseas market expansions [20][21]. Market Position and Competitive Advantages - The company has established strong barriers to entry in the yeast production sector due to the high capital investment required and the complexity of cultivating high-quality strains [2]. - The demand side shows strong customer loyalty, particularly in B2B segments, supported by a vast distribution network and brand recognition [2]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with plans to reach over 600,000 tons by 2030, which will help alleviate supply-demand imbalances and support market share growth [19].

Inflation Data Summary - December core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%[1] - December CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with expectations, while year-on-year CPI remained at 2.7%[1] - Core CPI year-on-year held steady at 2.6%, meeting market expectations[1] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations remained unchanged at 52 basis points[1] - 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields decreased by 2 basis points to 3.45% and 4.17%, respectively[1] - The U.S. dollar index remained stable around 99, while S&P 500 futures showed minimal fluctuations[1] Sector Analysis - Clothing, furniture, and entertainment goods showed a rebound in December, with month-on-month increases of 0.95pp, 0.42pp, and 0.37pp, respectively[2] - New and used car prices significantly slowed, with December month-on-month growth at 0.01% and -1.11%, down from 0.21% and 0.29% in November[2] - Core services inflation rose by 0.21pp to 0.29%, with housing showing a notable rebound[2] Future Outlook - The forecast for U.S. CPI growth in 2026 has been revised downwards, with core CPI expected to be 3.0%, a reduction of 0.3pp[2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts from January to May, with potential cuts in the second half of the year[2] - Risks include unexpected impacts from tariffs and potential price increases by businesses in early 2026[3]

证券研究报告 港股通 中银航空租赁 (2588 HK) 4Q25：机队规模持续扩张 2026 年 1 月 14 日│中国香港 租赁 | 华泰研究 | | 公告点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 1 月 | 14 日│中国香港 | 租赁 | 目标价(港币): | 91.00 | 中银航空租赁（BOCA）披露了 4Q25 运营数据。自有飞机数量环比提升 9 架，同比提升 16 架，达到 451 架。四季度公司交付的飞机数量达到 16 架， 同时出售了 8 架飞机（7 架自有+1 架代管）。资产端，机队规模的增长显 示公司仍然在稳步扩张，背后的驱动力是上游波音和空客的产能正在逐步修 复。根据空客披露的交付数据和 Forecast International 的估计数据，12 月 波音和空客可能合计交付了 200 架飞机，相比去年同期的 153 架有所提升。 我们认为上游 OEM 的产能改善有利于 BOCA 的资本开支投放和机队扩张， 公司资产规模有望增长。在负债端，公司全年融资额超过 40 亿美元，可能 创下 2020 年后的 ...

证券研究报告 布鲁可 (325 HK) 港股通 积木车及出海有望为 26 年增长亮点 | 华泰研究 | | | 动态点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 | 14 日│中国香港 | 消费轻工 | 目标价(港币): | 98.00 | 25 年以来，在"全人群+全价位+全球化"三全战略引领下，公司持续扩充 在手 IP 矩阵并有序推动新品商业化，IP 体系及产品矩阵不断丰富，国内外 渠道稳步拓展，竞争优势持续夯实。复盘看，25 年在传统玩具消费整体景 气偏弱的背景下，我们预计公司传统主业 25 年经营弱于市场预期，但 9.9 元星辰版产品、成人向、出海等新业务线表现突出，有望带动 25H2 收入环 比提速，26 年有望延续快速增长趋势；此外为配合新品推广和区域开拓， 公司在 25 年加大模具/人力等成本投入，阶段性扰动盈利能力，26 年亦有 望迎来修复。展望后续，伴随积木车、出海等业务线模式跑通，26 年收入 有望保持快速成长，中长期看公司建立并深耕的"布鲁可体系"护城河深厚， 未来在客群破圈、品类拓展 ...

今日早参 2026 年 1 月 14 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 陈慎 房地产行业首席研究员 座机：021 38476038 邮箱：chenshen@htsc.com 陈慎 房地产行业首席研究员 座机：021 38476038 邮箱：chenshen@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：美国 12 月通胀反弹幅度低于预期 12 月核心 CPI 环比增速不及预期，并未出现此前市场普遍预期的因政府关 门影响消退所带来的明显反弹。12 月核心 CPI 环比 0.2%，较 11 月（较 9 月复合增速，下同）边际上行 0.16pp，不及预期（彭博一致预期，下同）的 0.3%，核心 CPI 同比持平于 2.6%，符合预期；12 月 CPI 环比 0.3%，较 11 月边际上行 0.21pp，CPI 同比持平于 2.7%，均符合预期。由于 12 月核心 CPI 环比不及预期，截至北京时间 23 点整，较数据公布前，联储降息预期 持平于 52bp，2y、10y 美债收益率均下行 2bp 分别至 3.45%、4.17%，美 元指数基本持平于 99，标普 500 期货先涨后跌基本持平。 风险提 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 8.00 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated robust growth in retail sales, with both the main brand and children's clothing achieving approximately 10% year-on-year growth in 4Q25, continuing a steady growth trend despite high base effects [1][11]. - E-commerce sales recorded a high double-digit growth in 4Q25, indicating strong performance in online channels [7][11]. - The company is enhancing its brand power through innovative products and marketing strategies, including the introduction of "super stores" to upgrade channel efficiency and expand international presence [5][11]. Summary by Sections Operational Performance - In 4Q25, the main brand and children's clothing retail sales both achieved approximately 10% year-on-year growth, maintaining a steady growth trend [1][11]. - The e-commerce platform saw overall sales achieve high double-digit year-on-year growth, continuing a solid performance [7][11]. Product and Marketing Strategy - The company launched new products in various categories, including running, basketball, and outdoor gear, which have received significant market attention [6]. - The introduction of "super stores" is expected to enhance customer acquisition and sales efficiency, with a notable increase in new customer ratios [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 10,074 million in 2024 to RMB 14,019 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.30% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1,149 million in 2024 to RMB 1,655 million by 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company is assigned a target PE of 10.1x for 2026, with a target price of HKD 8.00, reflecting a discount compared to comparable companies due to its current brand scale and market share [9][13].

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - In the second week of January, the real estate sector showed a significant decline in new home heat, while second-hand homes saw a slight increase, remaining below last year's levels, indicating a need for price improvement [2] - Industrial production showed a widening year-on-year decline in freight volume, with a mixed performance in production rates across sectors, particularly in coking and chemicals, while construction materials like cement showed a slight narrowing in supply-demand decline [2] - External demand indicators showed a year-on-year decline in throughput, but continued resilience in exports to South Korea and Vietnam, while consumer demand for travel and automotive purchases showed signs of recovery [2] Group 2: Real Estate Sector Analysis - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a recovery, with November housing prices continuing to rise, and December private residential transaction volumes significantly increasing year-on-year, reaching a twenty-year high for new home sales [6] - Retail sales in Hong Kong showed a rebound, with November retail rental declines significantly narrowing, indicating a positive trend for commercial real estate [6] - The report recommends focusing on Hong Kong-listed property companies, particularly New World Development and Link REIT, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the market [6] Group 3: Electric Power Equipment and New Energy - The adjustment of export tax rebates for battery products is expected to lead to a short-term surge in battery exports, intensifying supply-demand tensions in lithium and related sectors, while long-term effects may favor companies with overseas production capabilities [7] - Recommended companies include CATL, EVE Energy, and others, which are well-positioned to benefit from the changing landscape in the battery industry [7] Group 4: Nonferrous Metals Sector - The report indicates that profits in the electrolytic aluminum sector are expected to rise in the first half of 2026, driven by a tightening supply-demand balance despite current weak downstream purchasing sentiment [8] - The anticipated seasonal demand in the "golden three silver four" months is expected to support aluminum prices and profit margins [8] Group 5: Technology Sector Developments - NVIDIA's acquisition of Groq is highlighted as a significant strategic move, emphasizing the importance of low-latency inference technology in the evolving AI landscape [9] - This acquisition is expected to enhance NVIDIA's capabilities in the Agentic AI sector, aligning with industry trends towards more responsive AI systems [9] Group 6: Semiconductor Industry Insights - The report discusses the increasing capital expenditure in the semiconductor cleanroom sector, driven by the demand for advanced manufacturing processes, with expectations of significant growth in the global semiconductor market [11] - Companies involved in cleanroom construction are expected to see improved profitability due to the high demand and limited supply of skilled labor in overseas markets [11] Group 7: Key Company Recommendations - Junwei Electronics is recommended for a buy rating, with a target price of 42.1 yuan, as it transitions from a precision resistor leader to a comprehensive current detection solution provider [12] - The report also highlights the potential of WeRide, with a buy rating and target prices set for both Hong Kong and US markets, due to its dual focus on domestic and international markets for autonomous driving [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NVIDIA with a target price of $280.00 [7]. Core Insights - The acquisition of Groq by NVIDIA, valued at approximately $20 billion, is seen as a strategic move to enhance NVIDIA's capabilities in low-latency inference technology, which is crucial for the evolving landscape of Agentic AI [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that the integration of Groq's deterministic technology into NVIDIA's existing CUDA and GPU frameworks will help define the technical standards for the "second half" of AI, focusing on real-time applications that require low latency [3][4]. - The shift from a throughput-oriented training phase to a latency-sensitive execution phase is highlighted as a significant trend, with 2026 expected to mark the emergence of Agentic AI as a mainstream technology [3][4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Groq's Strategic Importance - Groq's core product, the Language Processing Unit (LPU), is designed specifically for inference computing, addressing the latency-throughput tradeoff inherent in general GPU architectures [9][10]. - The report posits that Groq's architecture is tailored for real-time, interactive inference scenarios, making it a complementary technology to NVIDIA's GPU offerings [11]. Section 2: Architectural Differences - Groq's architecture prioritizes deterministic execution through a compiler-driven design, contrasting with NVIDIA's reliance on runtime scheduling mechanisms [12][15]. - The LPU's integration of high-speed SRAM allows for significantly lower memory access latency compared to traditional GPUs, which rely on external HBM [22][23]. Section 3: Market Segmentation and Economic Viability - The report identifies a growing market for latency-sensitive inference, transitioning from niche applications to foundational infrastructure needs, thereby justifying Groq's higher initial capital investments [39][40]. - It highlights that in scenarios where response speed is critical, Groq's architecture can provide a competitive edge in terms of operational costs per token processed [37][41]. Section 4: Competitive Landscape - The report discusses the competitive dynamics between Groq and NVIDIA, noting that while Groq focuses on low-latency inference, NVIDIA continues to dominate in high-throughput training and batch processing [11][38]. - The potential for a hybrid deployment strategy is suggested, where Groq's speed advantages complement NVIDIA's capacity strengths in AI infrastructure [38].