证券研究报告 李宁 (2331 HK) 港股通 "荣耀金标"及科技营销蓄力奥运年 | 华泰研究 | 公告点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 1 月 16 日│中国香港 | 服装 | 目标价(港币): | 22.76 | | 李宁公布 2025 年四季度运营情况：公司销售点（不包括李宁 YOUNG）整 | | 樊俊豪 | 研究员 | | 体零售流水按年同比低单位数下降，降幅环比收窄。分月度来看，我们预计 | | SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 | fanjunhao@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 | | 10 月受国庆中秋双节带动表现稍好，但 11-12 月受消费环境及暖冬影响有 | | | | | 所转弱。整体来看，公司在复杂的零售环境中主动控制库存与风险，尽管 | | 张霜凝* | 研究员 | | Q4 及元旦后消费情绪仍较弱，但库销比已回归健康水平。管理层对 | 2025 | SAC No. S0570525070015 zhangshuangning@htsc. ...

证券研究报告 亚翔集成 (603929 CH) 境外洁净室投建持续乐观 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 | 16 日│中国内地 | 建筑施工 | 目标价(人民币): | 235.62 | 2026 年 1 月 15 日台积电召开 4Q25 法人说明会，就 4Q25 经营表现进行了 回顾，同时披露 2026 财年资本开支计划为 520~560 亿美金，同比 2025 财 年实际资本支出 409 亿美元增加 27%~37%。AI 应用需求落地下，先进制 程、存储芯片供不应求，跨国半导体产业龙头建厂扩产需求明确，我们认为 洁净室作为场务基础设施环节，基本面有望率先出现积极变化，亚翔集成作 为高端电子洁净室工程服务龙头企业，有望充分受益，维持"买入"评级。 4Q25 法说会台积电 FY26 资本开支指引乐观 台积电披露 26 财年资本开支指引为 520-560 亿美金，同比 25 财年增长 27~37%，计划其中 70-80%用于先进制程技术，约 10%用于特殊制程， 1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both A-shares and H-shares, with a target price of RMB 7.70 and HKD 6.85 respectively [6]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the company's ability to increase ticket prices, driven by low supply growth in the industry and improving demand conditions. This is expected to enhance profitability for airlines [1][4]. - The company has achieved a record high passenger load factor of 85.9% in 2025, with significant growth in international routes, indicating strong operational performance [2]. - The airline is projected to benefit from the growing demand for outbound tourism and travel in the Yangtze River Delta region, supported by its main hub in Shanghai [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of RMB 9.34 billion for 2025, with projections of RMB 78.01 billion and RMB 100.96 billion for 2026 and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 21%, 32%, and 26% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 0.04, RMB 0.35, and RMB 0.46 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. Market Dynamics - The airline industry is expected to see a supply-demand improvement in 2026, with supply growth slowing to 4.4% and demand projected to grow by 5.3% [3]. - The report highlights that the airline's capacity growth is primarily focused on international routes, with a 18.5% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) for international flights [2]. Cost and Pricing Outlook - The report anticipates that the airline will exhibit price elasticity, with potential for ticket price increases as competition eases and demand strengthens [4]. - The forecast includes a reduction in Brent crude oil price assumptions to USD 62 and USD 64 per barrel for 2026 and 2027, which is expected to alleviate cost pressures [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown a steady growth in new orders, with a total of 71.235 billion RMB in new contracts signed for the year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12% [1] - The company is gradually reducing its reliance on domestic cement engineering, with significant growth in integrated mining orders, indicating a clearer long-term growth trajectory [1][2] - The operational performance is improving, with a notable increase in cash flow and profitability, particularly in the metal mining operations [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Order and Revenue Performance - In Q4 2025, the company signed new orders totaling 11.353 billion RMB, a 7% increase year-on-year, with an end-of-year backlog of 66.5 billion RMB, up 11.3% year-on-year [1] - For the full year 2025, the company signed new engineering, equipment, and operation orders of 42.7 billion, 9.3 billion, and 17 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year changes of +14.9%, +29.9%, and -1.7% [2] Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 32.998 billion RMB, a 3.99% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.074 billion RMB, up 0.68% [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 18.07%, showing a slight improvement compared to the previous year [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.131 billion, 3.196 billion, and 3.248 billion RMB respectively [4] - The target price is set at 14.64 RMB, based on a 12x PE ratio for 2026, reflecting a robust outlook for the company’s international demand and business transformation [4]

今日早参 2026 年 1 月 16 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：货币政策"开门红" 今日（1 月 15 日）下午 3 点，央行相关负责人出席国新办主题为"介绍货 币金融政策支持实体经济高质量发展成效"的新闻发布会，在总结 2025 年 工作的同时，宣布推出包括结构性降息和扩张再贷款额度等一揽子有针对性 的货币宽松措施，并明确表示 2026 年有进一步降准降息的空间，明显推升 市场对货币政策宽松的预期。本文量化分析结构性宽松措施的力度及其反映 的货币政策重点、以及短期逆周期政策的主要看点。 风险提示：逆周期政策力度不及预期，地产周期超预期下行。 研报发布日期：2026-01-16 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 常慧丽 SAC:S0570520110002 SFC:BJC906 宏观：基建与地产相关融资走势分化 数据快评：12 月新增人民币贷款 ...

证券研究报告 能源/基础材料 伊朗紧张局势或扰动部分能化品供应 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 15 日│中国内地 动态点评 近日，伊朗国内针对物价上涨和货币贬值的抗议活动，已造成多地发生骚乱 并引发外部博弈。美国政府正在讨论针对伊朗的下一步措施，包括网络攻击、 实施制裁和军事打击等。若伊朗紧张局势进一步升级，或将引发市场对该国 及所在地区原油供应风险的担忧，导致油价进入高波动阶段，1 月 13 日 WTI/Brent 原油期货价格分别收于 61.15/65.47 美元/桶，较月初上涨 6.5%/7.6%。此外，伊朗是全球重要的尿素与甲醇供应国，若本次冲突持续 时间延长，可能扰动该国天然气供应，气头化工原料削减或将导致全球尿素 与甲醇出现局部缺口。具备降本增产能力及天然气业务增量的高分红能源寡 头、尿素产能较大和甲醇外售量较多的国内生产企业或将受益，推荐中国石 油（A/H）、中国海油（A/H）、华谊集团、中海石油化学。 伊朗国内冲突引发供应风险担忧，油价或进入高波动阶段 由于美国对伊朗制裁有所放松，伊朗原油产量自 20 年 7 月 193 万桶/天大幅 提升至 25 年 11 月 322 万桶/天。伊朗占据霍 ...

1 月 14 日，沪深北交易所将融资买入最低保证金比例由 80%上调至 100%， 这一调整清晰体现了监管逆周期调节的政策取向：融资是当前市场重要的增 量资金来源之一，开年来融资余额、融资交易占比持续走高，通过提高门槛 引导市场适度降杠杆。对比 2015 年类似的调整，我们认为本次调整有助于 平抑短期波动、稳定投资者预期，引导市场向节奏更健康、持续性更强的中 长期行情演化。对证券行业而言，短期两融增速或趋缓，但整体业务环境更 稳，建议关注资本实力、风控能力更强的头部券商配置机会，推荐中信 AH、 国泰海通 AH、广发 AH、中金 H。 将融资保证金比例由 80%提至 100% 证券研究报告 证券 融资保证金比例提升的信号意义 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 15 日│中国内地 动态点评 2015 年股市快速上行过程中，除场内两融外，场外配资规模失控、结构复 杂，各类高杠杆资金叠加放大波动，监管上调保证金比例更多是快速压降系 统性风险。本轮调整发生在两融杠杆整体可控的区间内，与历史高风险阶段 并不相同。截至 1 月 13 日，市场平均维持担保比例约为 288%，反映出当 前融资客户整体安全垫较厚、杠杆并未出现结 ...

Group 1: Securities Industry - The adjustment of the minimum margin requirement for margin trading from 80% to 100% by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges signals a regulatory counter-cyclical adjustment, aimed at guiding the market to reduce leverage appropriately and stabilize investor expectations [2][3] - The increase in margin requirements is expected to help smooth short-term volatility and lead the market towards a healthier and more sustainable medium to long-term trend [2] - Short-term growth in margin financing may slow down, but the overall business environment for the securities industry is expected to stabilize, with a recommendation to focus on leading brokerages with strong capital and risk control capabilities [2] Group 2: Oil and Gas/Chemicals Industry - The recent unrest in Iran due to rising prices and currency devaluation has raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices increasing by 6.5% and 7.6% respectively since the beginning of the month [3] - Iran is a significant supplier of urea and methanol, and prolonged conflict could disrupt natural gas supplies, leading to potential shortages in these chemicals globally [3] - Domestic companies with strong dividend yields and significant production capacities in urea and methanol are expected to benefit, with recommendations for companies like China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [3] Group 3: Macroeconomic Overview - December export figures showed a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 3.1%, while imports rose to 5.7% from 1.9% in November [4] - The trade surplus reached $114.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of $9 billion, indicating strong resilience in exports despite a slight decline in annual growth rate to 5.5% from 5.8% in 2025 [4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The forecast for net inflows into the A-share market in 2026 is projected at 1.6 trillion yuan, driven by long-term capital and retail investor participation, compared to 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025 [5] - The report highlights the investment potential of Angel Yeast, a leading global yeast producer, with a domestic market share of 55% and a global share of 22%, indicating strong revenue growth prospects [5] Group 5: Aviation Leasing - Bank of China Aviation Leasing reported a 9 aircraft increase in its fleet size quarter-on-quarter, reaching 451 aircraft, with 16 aircraft delivered in Q4 2025 [6] - The company’s financing exceeded $4 billion for the year, reflecting improved capital expenditure and fleet expansion, with expectations for core ROE to improve to 11% in 2025 and 12% in 2026 [6] Group 6: Consumer Goods - 361 Degrees reported a 10% year-on-year growth in retail sales for both its main and children's brands in Q4 2025, maintaining a steady growth trend [7] - The company is expected to enhance shareholder returns with a projected dividend yield of 6.2% for 2026, supported by innovative products and marketing strategies [7] Group 7: Toy Industry - Blokus has expanded its IP matrix and is expected to see significant growth in 2026, driven by new product lines and international market expansion [8] - Despite a challenging traditional toy market, the company anticipates a recovery in profitability in 2026, supported by successful new product launches and regional market development [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 55.55 RMB, reflecting a 24x PE for 2026 [6][8]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the global yeast industry, holding a market share of 55% in China and 22% globally as of 2024, ranking first and second respectively by capacity [17]. - The report addresses concerns regarding revenue stability and profit volatility, indicating that domestic demand remains resilient while overseas markets present significant growth opportunities [17][18]. - Short-term profit margins are expected to improve as the company is currently at a cyclical low, with a projected net profit margin of 8.7% for 2024, below the historical average of 11.1% since 2000 [20]. Revenue Analysis - The company's revenue distribution for Q1-Q3 2025 shows a split of 56% domestic and 44% overseas, with traditional yeast demand in China expected to grow steadily due to the expansion of the baking industry [18]. - Yeast extract (YE) products are anticipated to replace traditional chemical flavor enhancers, with a theoretical demand space in China nearing 400,000 tons, indicating substantial growth potential [18]. - The overseas market is characterized by competitive advantages in differentiated dry yeast products, with successful penetration into major clients like Nestlé and Unilever [18]. Profit Analysis - The company is positioned for short-term profit elasticity and long-term reduction in profit volatility, driven by factors such as declining molasses prices and improved cost control capabilities [20]. - The anticipated procurement price for molasses in the new season is expected to be around 800-900 RMB per ton, a decrease of 250-350 RMB per ton year-on-year, which is likely to enhance profit margins in 2026 [20]. - Long-term profit stability is expected to be supported by enhanced pricing power, reduced capital expenditure impacts, and cost savings from overseas market expansions [20][21]. Market Position and Competitive Advantages - The company has established strong barriers to entry in the yeast production sector due to the high capital investment required and the complexity of cultivating high-quality strains [2]. - The demand side shows strong customer loyalty, particularly in B2B segments, supported by a vast distribution network and brand recognition [2]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with plans to reach over 600,000 tons by 2030, which will help alleviate supply-demand imbalances and support market share growth [19].

Inflation Data Summary - December core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%[1] - December CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with expectations, while year-on-year CPI remained at 2.7%[1] - Core CPI year-on-year held steady at 2.6%, meeting market expectations[1] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations remained unchanged at 52 basis points[1] - 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields decreased by 2 basis points to 3.45% and 4.17%, respectively[1] - The U.S. dollar index remained stable around 99, while S&P 500 futures showed minimal fluctuations[1] Sector Analysis - Clothing, furniture, and entertainment goods showed a rebound in December, with month-on-month increases of 0.95pp, 0.42pp, and 0.37pp, respectively[2] - New and used car prices significantly slowed, with December month-on-month growth at 0.01% and -1.11%, down from 0.21% and 0.29% in November[2] - Core services inflation rose by 0.21pp to 0.29%, with housing showing a notable rebound[2] Future Outlook - The forecast for U.S. CPI growth in 2026 has been revised downwards, with core CPI expected to be 3.0%, a reduction of 0.3pp[2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts from January to May, with potential cuts in the second half of the year[2] - Risks include unexpected impacts from tariffs and potential price increases by businesses in early 2026[3]