Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the diversified financial sector [2] Core Insights - The public fund industry is undergoing a systematic and high-quality transformation, shifting from a scale-oriented approach to a focus on long-term returns, driven by regulatory reforms and market dynamics [4][13] - By 2030, the total AUM (Assets Under Management) in the industry is expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan, with growth primarily fueled by deeper financial asset allocation by residents and the acceleration of long-term capital inflows [8][16] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The public fund industry has seen a significant transformation since 2023, with reforms focusing on fee reductions, performance benchmarks, and management practices, leading to a restructuring of the operational logic from scale to long-term returns [4][5] Reform Progress - The reforms initiated in 2023 have transitioned from cost constraints to a comprehensive restructuring of the investment research, sales, assessment, and product logic, with a focus on investor returns [5][17] Revenue and Profitability - The total revenue of the public fund industry decreased from 262.5 billion yuan in 2021 to approximately 200 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 21% decline due to fee reductions and changes in trading behavior [6][27] - The average management fee and trading commission rates have significantly declined, with management fees remaining the core revenue source but showing a decreasing contribution from actively managed equity funds [6][15] Asset Growth and Structure - As of Q3 2025, the total net asset value of public funds reached 36.09 trillion yuan, a 12% increase from the beginning of the year, with the proportion of public funds to GDP rising from 7% in 2014 to 27% in 2025 [7][36] - The growth in the industry is primarily driven by equity and money market funds, with a notable increase in the share of industry and thematic ETFs [7][14] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that passive investment, particularly through ETFs, will continue to dominate the industry, while active management will focus on boutique strategies to achieve sustainable alpha [8][16] - The integration of AI technology across the investment research, trading, sales, and risk control processes is expected to enhance the competitive advantages of leading firms [8][16]

张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日早参 2025 年 12 月 30 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 仇文竹 债券策略研究组长 座机：13910895671 邮箱：qiuwenzhu@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：12 月海外增长数据整体超预期 12 月美联储如期降息并启动扩表、联储主席人选博弈加剧；日央行加息、日 本释放干预日元信号；欧央行按兵不动；俄乌和平进程进入关键期；全球多 数市场在流动性宽松预期推动下整体上涨。增长数据方面，12 月美欧服务业 PMI 有所回升，美欧制造业延续走弱态势，日本制造业低位回升；通胀方 面，美国 11 月 CPI 降温超预期，主要受政府关门影响；市场方面，经济数据 整体好于预期，10 年期美债收益率上行，美国三大股指集体上涨，美元走 弱，欧元升值、日元贬值，大宗商品涨跌不一，布伦特原油下跌，黄金、 LME 铜大幅走高。 风险提示：联储独立性削弱，地缘政治不确定性。 研报发布日期：2025-12-29 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 S ...

看好发电机组供热改造解锁新机遇 华泰研究 证券研究报告 公用环保 2025 年 12 月 29 日│中国内地 专题研究 清洁供暖或支撑供暖强度提升，工业供热市场广阔 根据我们测算，2024 年我国热力终端消费量或达 91 亿吉焦，其中居民生活 /工业占比约 20/75%，对应工业供热市场规模 4908 亿元（~25 亿吨蒸汽）。 据我们测算，我国人均供暖用热量较全球主要经济体平均水平低 67%，热 源视角下，美国的天然气较中国的煤炭具有较为明显的价格优势，未来清洁 供暖比例提升有望支撑我国供暖强度提升。工业供热市场对于火电、核电和 垃圾焚烧来说是有效补充，电价下行周期中供热业务对发电企业的盈利增厚 将更为显著，未来发电机组或标配供热能力，我们测算 2030 年火电、核电、 垃圾焚烧、生物质发电机组或贡献 2259 亿新增工业供热市场。推荐福能股 份、中国核电。 供暖：我国人均用热量较低，清洁供暖有望打开供暖强度提升空间 据我们测算，2023 年中国住宅建筑空间供暖用热量 5703PJ，在全球主要经 济体中位列第一；但供暖人均用热量约 4.0GJ/人，较全球主要经济体平均 水平（12.22GJ/人）低 67%。 ...

今日早参 2025 年 12 月 29 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：美增长和就业数据维持改善态势 上周公布的三季度 GDP 数据显示美国经济增长韧性延续，主要来自私人消 费和净出口贡献。美国财长贝森特提议联储未来修改通胀目标。日本公布 2026 财年预算，财政维持扩张态势；日本财政部释放干预日元的信号，并 宣布将削减超长债发行规模以稳定日债市场。乌克兰和平进程进入关键外交 博弈期。上周美债收益率小幅下行、美元回落、美股上涨。本周重点关注美 联储 12 月 FOMC 会议纪要（12 月 31 日）、泽连斯基与特朗普会面（12 月 28 日）、新联储主席人选（可能在 1 月第一周公布）。 风险提示：地缘政治不确定性，联储独立性受到超预期削弱。 研报发布日期：2025-12-28 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 王子琳 SAC:S0570525090002 陈玮 SAC:S057052403000 ...

证券研究报告 环旭电子 (601231 CH) 投建光模块海外产能，协同日月光打 造一体化 AI 封装平台 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 12 月 | 29 日│中国内地 | 消费电子 | 目标价(人民币): | 39.60 | 我们预测公司 25-27 年归母净利润为 16.9/25.3/33.1 亿元，对应 EPS 为 0.75/1.13/1.48 元。下调 25 年归母净利润预测幅度为 4%，主要由于通讯类 产品物料采购成本下降而影响售价；上调 26/27 年归母净利润预测 15%/21%，主要是考虑到 AI 眼镜业务和 AI 加速卡业务均承接大客户订单， 营收有望显著增长。考虑到公司 AI 眼镜和算力新业务成长潜力，且中长期 与日月光具有战略协同优势，给予公司 26 年 35 倍 PE（可比公司一致预期 均值 29 倍），上调目标价为 39.6 元（前值 16.0 元，对应 25 年 20x PE）。 维持买入。 环旭电子 12 月 17 日宣布在越南海防厂投建 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Bailong Chuangyuan with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of RMB 28.00, corresponding to a 25x PE for 2026 [1][5][7]. Core Insights - Bailong Chuangyuan is positioned as a leader in the functional sugar sector, benefiting from a product mix that aligns with health trends, strong technical barriers providing pricing power, and a global production layout that supports sustained leadership in the functional sugar market [1][14][35]. - The company is expected to experience robust growth driven by the release of dietary fiber and prebiotic capacities in the first half of 2026, alongside the penetration potential of allulose sugar, which is anticipated to become a new growth driver [1][2][35]. Summary by Sections Beta Dimension - Bailong Chuangyuan focuses on the functional sugar sector, with three main product categories—prebiotics, dietary fibers, and allulose sugar—benefiting from the global "sugar reduction" and health upgrade trends [2][15]. - The global market for prebiotics is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% from 2024 to 2030, driven by increasing consumer awareness and supportive policies in dairy and infant formula sectors [2][15]. - Dietary fibers are expected to see a CAGR of 10.0% from 2024 to 2030, with resistant dextrin leading the growth due to its enhanced functionality [2][15]. - Allulose sugar is anticipated to have a CAGR of 16.9% from 2024 to 2030, as it expands from beverages to baked goods, supported by regulatory approvals in key markets [2][15]. Alpha Dimension - The company leads in market share within the functional sugar industry, with significant global market positions in dietary fibers, prebiotics, and allulose sugar [3][16]. - Technical advantages include high purity and low-cost production methods for resistant dextrin and allulose sugar, which enhance competitive positioning [3][16]. - Customer stickiness is strong, with 67% of revenue coming from overseas markets, where the competitive environment is less aggressive than in domestic markets [3][16]. - The company’s flexible production management allows for efficient capacity allocation, focusing on high-value products, and plans for expansion in Thailand are expected to further enhance global competitiveness [3][16]. Market Perspective - The report counters market concerns regarding domestic competition leading to price wars, emphasizing the company's high overseas revenue proportion and the customized nature of its products, which create high switching costs for customers [4][16]. - The business model is designed to mitigate risks associated with capacity expansions by competitors, as the company's products are closely tied to long-term health trends rather than short-term price competition [4][16]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 3.6 billion, RMB 4.7 billion, and RMB 6.2 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.86, RMB 1.12, and RMB 1.48 [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Haitian Flavor Industry Co., Ltd. with an "Accumulate" rating and a target price of HKD 39.30, corresponding to a 27x PE for 2026 [1][5][7]. Core Insights - Haitian Flavor Industry, as a leading player in the domestic seasoning industry, has successfully navigated post-pandemic challenges through a market-oriented governance system that emphasizes high incentives and revenue generation. The company has achieved counter-cyclical growth since 2024 by leveraging category expansion, refined channel management, and proactive brand investment [1][13][32]. - The report highlights the company's sustainable competitive advantages, including a highly efficient supply chain, a nationwide distribution network, and strong brand equity, which are expected to provide cost and efficiency advantages in the long-term seasoning industry [1][5][32]. - The company is poised for growth through domestic market share expansion and overseas market exploration, particularly in Southeast Asia, facilitated by its recent Hong Kong listing [3][5][15]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of HKD 39.30, reflecting a favorable valuation compared to peers [5][7]. Company Overview - Haitian Flavor Industry has a rich history dating back to the Qing Dynasty, evolving into a modern enterprise with significant market presence and brand recognition [17][18]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a robust market position through strategic channel management and brand enhancement, which have led to a significant increase in market share despite industry challenges [15][16][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and category expansion, with new product lines contributing to revenue growth [3][15][19]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 at RMB 7.00 billion, RMB 7.73 billion, and RMB 8.30 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.20, RMB 1.32, and RMB 1.42 [5][10]. - Revenue growth is projected at 9.53% for 2024, with a gradual increase in subsequent years, indicating a recovery trajectory [10][11]. Competitive Landscape - The report contrasts Haitian's strategies with those of international competitors, noting that the company is well-positioned to adapt to market fluctuations and consumer trends, unlike some peers facing structural declines [14][16].

证券研究报告 文本选股策略超额收益收窄 2025 年 12 月 28 日│中国内地 量化投资周报 文本 LLM-FADT 组合本月相对中证 500 超额-1.5%，今年超额 2.9% 在前期 BERT-FADT 基础上，我们借助大模型（LLM）补充标题新解、行情 催化剂、"言外之意"、潜在风险、收益指引等额外解读，构建 LLM-FADT 文本选股策略。截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日，文本 LLM-FADT 组合本月以来 相对中证 500 超额收益-1.5%，今年以来超额收益 2.9%，本周超额收益有 所回撤。自 2017 年初回测以来年化收益率 29.05%，相对中证 500 超额年 化收益 26.56%，组合夏普比率 1.13，信息比率 2.08。相比于仅依赖原始文 本的 BERT-FADT，LLM-FADT 策略总体更为稳定，超额回撤相对较小。 今年以来 AI 量价因子多头超额 19.98%，中证 1000 增强超额 24.24% 截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日，全频段融合因子今年以来 TOP 层相对全 A 等权 基准的超额收益为 19.98%，自 2017 年初回测以来 TOP 层年化超 ...

证券研究报告 华泰研究 2025 年 12 月 26 日│中国内地 行业月报 供需宽松叠加地缘溢价逐步消退，油价回归至边际成本附近 12 月以来 OPEC+宣布维持 26Q1 产量目标不变，但美国原油产量持续攀升， 叠加俄乌"和平计划"持续谈判中，12 月中旬 Brent 油价一度跌破 60 美元/ 桶而后小幅反弹，12 月 25 日 WTI/Brent 期货价格收于 58.4/62.2 美元/桶， 较 11 月末下跌 0.3%/1.5%。我们认为美欧对俄制裁带来的风险溢价已基本 消退，北半球需求淡季叠加 OPEC+前期目标增量逐步释放，供需宽松局势 下 26Q1 油价或仍有小幅下行空间，26Q2-Q3 油价有望在需求进入旺季的 带动下见底并上探，预计 25/26 年 Brent 均价为 68/62 美元/桶。长期而言， 考虑主要产油国边际成本及"利重于量"诉求，油价中枢存 60 美元/桶底部 支撑，具备增产降本能力及天然气业务增量的能源龙头企业或将显现配置机 遇，推荐中国石油（A/H）、中国海油（A/H）。 需求侧：北半球进入需求淡季，主要地区成品油进入补库阶段 石油天然气 边际成本支撑下油价下行风险或可控 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [7] Core Insights - The report anticipates stable growth in hydropower and improvements in cash flow for green energy and environmental companies due to government subsidies and debt reduction policies [1][6] - The performance of thermal power companies is expected to improve in Q4 2025 despite some uncertainty due to impairment losses [2] - Hydropower generation has shown significant year-on-year growth, with expectations for increased profitability for major hydropower companies [3] - The renewable energy sector is experiencing growth in installed capacity, which supports an increase in generation, while the risk of impairment is expected to ease [4] - Natural gas production is on the rise, and cost reductions may boost demand in the coming years [5] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - In October and November 2025, thermal power generation increased by 7.3% and decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, respectively, with coal prices declining by 11.5% year-on-year [2] - The average price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal in Q4 2025 is projected to be 750 RMB per ton [2] Hydropower & Nuclear Power - Hydropower generation in October and November 2025 increased by 28.2% and 17.1% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The Three Gorges Dam's outflow increased significantly, and nuclear power generation also showed stable growth [3] Renewable Energy - From January to October 2025, wind and solar power generation increased by 7.6% and 23.2% year-on-year, respectively, with installed capacity growth supporting generation increases [4] - The utilization rates for wind and solar power were 96.4% and 94.8%, respectively, indicating a slight year-on-year improvement [4] Natural Gas - Natural gas production increased by 5.9% and 5.7% year-on-year in October and November 2025, while apparent consumption decreased by 1.3% [5] - The market anticipates a decline in international oil prices and domestic gas prices, which may support demand growth [5] Environmental Sector - The report highlights the positive impact of government subsidy repayments and pricing adjustments on the environmental sector's fundamentals [6] - The ongoing debt reduction policies are expected to enhance the financial performance of environmental companies [6]