证券研究报告 宏观 特朗普对联储的施压升级 华泰研究 易峘 研究员 2025 年 9 月 01 日│中国内地 海外周报 海外一周概览 上周美国增长整体维持韧性，7 月 PCE 通胀数据温和回升。特朗普对联储 的施压升级，宣布罢免联储理事库克；美国上诉法院裁定对等关税和芬太尼 关税为非法，但短期内预计不会影响关税加征。全周来看，联储委员表态偏 鸽，市场对联储降息预期升温，美债收益率下行，美股上涨，美元小幅走强， 大宗商品整体上涨。本周关注欧元区 8 月 HICP（9 月 2 日）、美国 8 月 ISM 制造业指数（9 月 2 日）、美国 8 月非农就业数据（9 月 5 日）。 高频数据 高频数据显示美国居民消费仍有韧性，就业市场边际改善，住房销售偏弱。 增长方面，亚特兰大联储 GDP Now 指示美国三季度 GDP 增速为 3.5%。消 费方面，上周实际个人消费季比折年增速的 Nowcast 小幅上行至 2.3%， Redbook 零售指数显示 8 月美国零售同比小幅上行。就业市场方面，最新 一周首申人数下行至 22.9 万人，略好于预期的 23 万人(彭博一致预期，下 同)，续申高位下行至 195.4 万人， ...

Macro Insights - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar and a basket of currencies has been notable, with a 0.4% increase observed on August 28-29 [2] - The manufacturing PMI for August showed a slight recovery to 49.4% from 49.3% in July, indicating marginal improvement in manufacturing activity [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.3% from 50.1% in July, suggesting a stable outlook for the service sector [3] Investment Strategy - The technology sector is experiencing increased investor interest, with TMT transaction volume exceeding 40% of total market activity, indicating a shift towards fundamental-driven market behavior [5] - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from Renminbi appreciation, such as consumption, non-bank financials, and electric new energy, which are currently at relatively low valuations [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining flexibility in investment strategies, particularly in the context of market volatility and sector rotation [8] Company Performance - Alibaba's Q1 FY26 revenue reached 247.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with adjusted EBITA declining by 13.7% [14] - Huichuan Technology reported a 26.73% increase in revenue for H1 2025, reaching 20.509 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.968 billion yuan, up 40.15% [18] - Zhonggu Logistics experienced a 41.6% increase in net profit for H1 2025, despite a 7.0% decline in revenue, attributed to high demand in the foreign trade container leasing market [19] Sector Analysis - The beverage sector showed strong sales performance, with revenue growth of 22.8% in Q2 2025, while the snack food sector faced challenges with a 0.3% decline [12] - The insurance sector is seeing a shift towards high-yield stocks, with the average allocation to FVOCI stocks increasing by 1.3 percentage points to 4.2% [10] - The real estate sector is under pressure, with China Overseas Development reporting a 4% decline in revenue for H1 2025, but maintaining a strong project pipeline for future growth [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 23.00 [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at RMB 480 million and net profit at RMB 140 million, representing year-on-year decreases of 24.5% and 17.1% respectively. The second quarter saw revenue and net profit drop to RMB 220 million and RMB 60 million, with year-on-year declines of 32.3% and 32.8% [2][3]. - Despite the revenue decline, the company is expected to benefit from the downstream demand for PA66 and recycled materials, and the industrial AI business is anticipated to bring new growth opportunities [2][5]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 46.2%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a continued improvement in profitability [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenues of RMB 290 million from new materials, RMB 140 million from recycled and biodegradable materials, and RMB 50 million from industrial AI integration solutions, with year-on-year changes of -33.2%, -23.4%, and +108.7% respectively [3]. - The gross margins for these segments were 51.0%, 34.3%, and 53.1%, reflecting year-on-year changes of +7.3, -5.7, and +13.4 percentage points [3]. Cost and Cash Flow - The company's expense ratio increased to 15.5%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising sales, management, and R&D expenses [4]. - Operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was negative at RMB 70 million, a decline of RMB 160 million year-on-year, attributed to project execution stages and reduced sales collections [4]. Market Outlook - The government has shown support for the promotion of AI applications, which is expected to benefit the company's industrial AI solutions. The company plans to enhance its AI offerings in the second half of 2025 [5]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts slightly downward due to slower order execution, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 revised to RMB 320 million, RMB 380 million, and RMB 460 million, reflecting a decrease of 16% for each year [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 5.76 CNY [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 101.3 billion CNY for 1H25, representing an 8% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of 3.25 billion CNY, up 42% year-over-year [1]. - The LCD business is expected to improve in 3Q25 due to the upcoming consumer electronics peak season, which will enhance the supply-demand balance and potentially restore ASPs [2]. - The OLED business is also anticipated to see improvements in shipment structure and profitability in 3Q25, driven by new orders from major North American clients [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved a revenue of 1,013 million CNY, with a gross margin of 14.4% and a net profit of 32.5 million CNY [1]. - For 2Q25, the revenue was 507 million CNY, with a gross margin of 13.0%, reflecting a decline due to reduced demand for LCD panels [1]. LCD Business Outlook - The average price of large-size LCD panels decreased by 3.2% year-over-year in 2Q25, impacting the company's profitability [2]. - The report forecasts a recovery in the LCD business in 3Q25 as clients prepare for the consumer electronics peak season [2]. OLED Business Outlook - The OLED segment faced challenges in 1H25 due to a deteriorating shipment structure and price competition [3]. - Anticipated improvements in 3Q25 are linked to new orders from major clients and the expiration of depreciation pressure on production lines [3]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of 5.76 CNY is based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.52x for 2025, which is above the average of comparable companies [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a 1.11x price-to-book ratio, indicating a historically low valuation level [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company [5][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.684 billion RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.41%, and a net profit of 377 million RMB, up 24.49% year-on-year. The proposed cash dividend is 0.1 RMB per share, with a payout ratio of 36.9% [1][2]. - The company's solid waste management operations are stable, with strong free cash flow. The stock incentive plan sets clear growth targets for profits and cash flow, reflecting confidence in future development. The current dividend yield for A/H shares is 4.3%/7.0% [1][3]. - The company has seen a 45% year-on-year increase in free cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities rising by 16.36% to 632 million RMB [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company processed 7.1543 million tons of municipal waste, generating 2.539 billion kWh of electricity, with a gross margin increase of 4.90 percentage points to 49.53% due to cost control and revenue growth from new business areas [2][3]. - The income tax expense for H1 2025 was 97.75 million RMB, with an effective tax rate of 19.69% [2]. Cash Flow and Dividends - As of June 30, accounts receivable stood at 2.787 billion RMB, primarily due to extended settlement cycles. The company’s free cash flow reached 475 million RMB, indicating strong operational cash generation [3][4]. - The performance targets set in the stock incentive plan suggest potential for increased dividends per share (DPS) in the coming years [3]. Valuation and Price Targets - The target price for A shares is set at 8.18 RMB, while for H shares it is 6.25 HKD, based on a projected PE ratio of 16.7x for A shares and 11.6x for H shares [4][5]. - The report forecasts net profits of 684 million RMB, 733 million RMB, and 774 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][8].

证券研究报告 上港集团 (600018 CH) 港口主业显韧性，投资收益亮眼 2025 年 8 月 31 日│中国内地 港口 上港集团公布 1H25 业绩：1）营收 195.7 亿元，同比下降 1.4%；2）归母 净利 80.4 亿元，同比下降 4.5%；3）扣非归母净利 73.7 亿元，同比增长 2.1%。上半年全球贸易受关税和地缘事件扰动，但公司港口主业经营凸显 韧性。1H25 公司集装箱吞吐量同比增长 6.1%至 2,707 万标准箱，连续十 五年排名世界第一。其他业务方面，上半年投资收益 44.3 亿元，同比增长 16.5%，主要得益于邮储银行/上海银行/东方海外国际等合联营公司盈利向 好推动。展望下半年，尽管宏观经济仍存不确定性，我们预计港口主业环比 有望保持平稳；中长期，公司持续推进集枢运体系建设，推动上海国际航运 中心能级全面跃升和深化长江战略，维持"买入"。 集装箱板块表现稳健，港口物流及服务板块收入高增 1H25：1）集装箱板块营收 85.8 亿元，同比+6.3%；毛利 40.2 亿元，同比 +6.9%；毛利率 46.9%，同比+0.3pct。尽管上半年受关税扰动，但公司集 装箱装卸业务表现 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 72.68 RMB [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.265 billion RMB for H1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 27.25%, and a net profit of 1.197 billion RMB, up 24.65% year-over-year [1]. - The demand for tire molds and large components is expected to remain strong, driven by the growth in global automotive ownership and the increasing penetration of electric vehicles [1][2]. - The company's machine tool business saw a significant revenue increase of 145.08% in H1 2025, reaching 506 million RMB, attributed to the introduction of advanced products and market expansion [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the company achieved a comprehensive gross margin of 34.48%, a slight decrease of 0.33 percentage points year-over-year [2]. - Tire mold revenue was 2.628 billion RMB, an 18.56% increase year-over-year, while large component machinery revenue reached 1.947 billion RMB, up 32.94% [2]. Business Expansion - The company is focusing on the development and promotion of multi-axis composite processing machine tools, with new products launched at the 19th China International Machine Tool Exhibition [3]. - The application of the company's products is expanding across various industries, including electronics, automotive manufacturing, and semiconductors [3]. Financial Management - The overall expense ratio for H1 2025 was 7.39%, down 0.97 percentage points year-over-year, indicating effective cost control [4]. - Operating cash flow was reported at 324 million RMB, a decrease of 5.41% year-over-year [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upward by 5.83%, 6.88%, and 5.67% respectively, leading to projected net profits of 2.529 billion RMB, 2.925 billion RMB, and 3.338 billion RMB [4]. - The target price has been raised to 72.68 RMB, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 23 times for 2025, considering the company's leadership in the tire mold sector and growth in high-end machine tools [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 96.42 per share [1][5][24] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 was under pressure, with revenue and net profit declining significantly due to seasonal factors and delayed payments from government projects [1][2] - The company is positioned as a leader in low-altitude information services, with ongoing expansion of its "Tianmu" system across various provinces and cities, which is expected to improve performance in the second half of the year [1][2] - The report highlights the company's strong gross margin improvement and increased R&D investment, indicating a focus on innovation and high-margin business segments [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company reported revenue of RMB 4.57 million and a net loss of RMB 0.31 million, representing a year-on-year decline of 28.4% and an expanded loss [1] - The gross margin for 1H25 was 26.65%, an increase of 4.76 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a shift towards higher-margin business segments [3] Business Segments - The company's information system development business generated RMB 3.96 million in revenue in 1H25, down 30% year-on-year, with notable contributions from civil aviation and urban traffic management sectors [2] - The report emphasizes the successful implementation of the "Tianmu" solution in various cities and the acquisition of a national-level project, enhancing the company's market position [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to consolidate its core business and advance local low-altitude information construction, with significant market opportunities projected in the civil aviation sector [4] - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the civil aviation control business of 31.34% from 2024 to 2026, indicating strong growth potential [5][19] Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, projecting a target market value of RMB 157.63 billion for the company, corresponding to a target price of RMB 96.42 per share [5][24]

证券研究报告 杰克股份 (603337 CH) 2025 秋季策略会速递—— 服装制造无人化行将致远，新品发布值得期待 2025 年 8 月 31 日│中国内地 专用设备 8 月 28 日，杰克股份参加了我们组织的秋季策略会，会上公司对于服装制 造无人化发展趋势、公司 AI 缝纫机以及人形机器人产品规划进行了分享。 全球服装制造业劳动密集程度高，AI 的快速发展使得服装制造柔性劳动的 机器替代成为可能，我们认为公司在服装制造无人化领域的发展脉络清晰、 AI 缝纫机/人形机器人等新品研发推进有序，未来业绩有望持续快速增长， 维持"买入"评级。 核心亮点： 1、全球服装制造年人工开支达万亿，AI 发展使其机器替代成为可能。我们 在 6 月 6 日发布的报告《2025 年中期策略会速递—关税影响可控，期待新 品发力》中提及，全球缝纫工人数量为 0.6~1.2 亿人，行业年人工开支在万 亿人民币量级，是工业缝纫机市场规模的百倍量级，具备很大的机器替代空 间。虽然用工规模很大，但过去工业机器人在服装制造业应用较少，原因在 于服装面料柔性、工艺非标、款式更新快，传统自动化编程的模式难以匹配。 近年来大模型快速发展，其端到 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of HKD 57.90 and RMB 57.50 [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 146.86 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 5.74 billion, up 19.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on operational transformation and resource investment to enhance logistics volume and revenue, achieving a year-on-year growth of 31.2% in logistics volume and 13.2% in revenue in Q2 2025, both exceeding industry averages [1][2]. - The company is strategically positioning itself to capture opportunities in international logistics and supply chain restructuring, aiming to become a comprehensive logistics leader [1][3]. Domestic Operations - In the domestic market, the core express business volume increased by 25.7% to 7.85 billion parcels, while the average revenue per parcel decreased by 12.2% to RMB 14.00 [2]. - Revenue from same-city instant delivery surged by 38.9% to RMB 5.49 billion, driven by high external demand and internal efficiency improvements [2]. - The cold chain and pharmaceutical segments also saw revenue growth of 15.3% to RMB 5.84 billion [2]. International Operations - Despite external trade policy disruptions, the company's supply chain and international business revenue grew by 9.7% to RMB 34.23 billion, with a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous year [3]. - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 4.3 billion on a comparable basis, marking a year-on-year increase of 178% after excluding certain losses [3]. Management and Employee Initiatives - The company implemented a "shared growth" employee stock ownership plan, aiming to enhance operational engagement and align long-term goals among key personnel [4]. - The logistics and freight forwarding business gross profit increased by 3.9% to RMB 18.74 billion, although the gross margin declined by 0.8 percentage points to 13.1% due to increased resource investments [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to RMB 11.78 billion, RMB 14.18 billion, and RMB 16.00 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of RMB 2.34, RMB 2.81, and RMB 3.17 [5]. - The company is assigned an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x for A-shares and 7.4x for H-shares, reflecting its competitive positioning and growth potential [5].