港股通 回购彰显成长信心，产品持续出奇创新 证券研究报告 泡泡玛特 (9992 HK) | 华泰研究 | | | 动态点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 | 22 日│中国香港 | 消费轻工 | 目标价(港币): | 410.00 | 公司近日开启股份回购，1 月 19 日、21 日两次回购合计 190 万股，回购金 额 3.1 亿港元。公司曾于 4M23-2M24 持续回购，累计约 2465 万股，金额 约 4.6 亿港元，平均单笔 36 万股。本轮回购的单笔金额及股数均超过以往， 彰显公司对成长前景信心。公司在门店运营精细度、场景氛围、情感体验等 方面不断精进，已长期论证的 IP 创新、品类创新能力持续发力，不断带动 新 IP、新玩法出圈。我们看好公司在 26 年加快 IP 结构多元化、均衡化， 乐园、动画内容、甜品、饰品等业态加快落地，培育新增长点并强化 IP 情 感连接，缓解市场对时尚风险的担忧。维持"买入"评级，继续重点推荐。 新品玩法、创意不断出新，持续验证 IP 运营能力 近期公司多 ...

今日早参 2026 年 1 月 23 日 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 仇文竹 固定收益：三个角度尝试增厚收益 随着基金销售新规落地，近期二永债明显修复。往后看，需求端超调压力缓 解，但股市、通胀、利率供给扰动仍存，一季度债市或延续震荡，但也不乏 交易机会。机构行为存在分化，保险开门红分红险销售亮眼，中小保险有拉 久期需求，银行配置摊余成本法信用债专户或带来中长久期信用债配置需 求。理财面临净值化挑战和分红险分流，春节前谨防取现需求规模回落。债 基短期压力缓解，中期仍面临"收益增厚和持有体验"等挑战。信用债 ETF 是机构发展重点，但年前冲量后近期明显回落，成分券超跌。综上，近期建 议继续票息打底，通过波段、品种、杠杆等增厚收益。基金、理财可继续下 沉挖掘 2 年期以内城投债，关注 5 年期二永债波段机会、4 年中高等级骑乘 机会，保险等可逢调整增配 5 年及以上中高等级信用债。 风险提示：股市走强超预期，刺激经济政策超预期。 研报发布日期：2026-01-22 研究员 张继强 SAC:S0570518110002 SFC: ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 19.40, corresponding to a FY27 PE of 22 times [6][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a retail revenue growth of 17.8% year-on-year for 3QFY26, with same-store sales growth (SSSG) accelerating across regions, particularly in mainland China and Hong Kong [1][2]. - The company is focusing on international expansion, having opened its first new image store in Singapore and planning further expansion into Thailand, Australia, North America, and the Middle East [4]. - The retail value of priced jewelry in mainland China has increased to 40.1%, supporting the resilience of the company's gross margin [3]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In 3QFY26, the company's retail revenue increased by 17.8% year-on-year, with same-store sales growth in mainland China and Hong Kong at 21.4% and 14.3% respectively [1][2]. - The growth was driven by rising gold prices and increased consumer enthusiasm for jewelry, particularly in mainland China [2]. Product and Brand Strategy - The company has successfully launched new products in its signature series, enhancing brand appeal and reaching younger consumers through collaborations, such as the blind box series with Hong Kong Disneyland [3]. - The retail value of priced jewelry in mainland China has risen by 10.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a strong consumer response to price adjustments [3]. Store Network and Expansion - The company is optimizing its store network by closing underperforming stores while opening new image stores, with a net closure of 228 stores in 3QFY26, a slowdown from previous quarters [4]. - The company has initiated international expansion, with plans to establish a retail presence in high-potential markets [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of HKD 81.2 billion, HKD 89.1 billion, and HKD 99.0 billion for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively [5][9]. - The report anticipates a PE ratio of 14 times for comparable companies in 2026, with the company positioned as an industry leader benefiting from ongoing same-store sales growth and channel adjustments [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [7] Core Insights - The approval of Vanke's debt extension plan alleviates short-term pressure on leading real estate companies, contributing to a stabilization of market expectations and creating favorable conditions for the industry to "stop falling and stabilize" [1][3] - The threefold guarantees in Vanke's proposal, including optimized repayment arrangements, fixed repayment schedules, and enhanced credit measures, are crucial for easing liquidity pressures and balancing creditor interests [2][3] - The ongoing debt reduction efforts among major real estate companies are essential for addressing industry pain points and are a focal point for risk prevention policies [4] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in "three good" real estate stocks characterized by good credit, good cities, and good products, such as China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, and Longfor Group [5] - It also highlights companies with strong operational capabilities that can manage cash flow during market adjustments, such as China Resources Land and New Town Holdings [5] - Local Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market recovery, like Sun Hung Kai Properties, are also recommended [5] - Companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages, such as Greentown Service and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [5] Key Company Insights - Longfor Group's commercial operations continue to grow, while development sales have decreased year-on-year, indicating a focus on quality land acquisition [13] - Greentown Service maintains its annual performance guidance and emphasizes cash dividends and share buybacks, showcasing its competitive advantages in service quality and brand premium [14] - Greentown China reported a 23% year-on-year decline in revenue, but its sales performance remains better than the industry average, with a focus on improving debt structure and cash flow [15] - Link REIT, as Hong Kong's first listed REIT, is expected to benefit from factors like RMB appreciation and population recovery, leading to valuation recovery [14] - China Overseas Development's revenue decreased by 4% year-on-year, but its development scale and operational advantages remain strong, with plans for new project launches [15] - China Jinmao's revenue increased by 14% year-on-year, driven by improved project turnover and margin [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aerospace and military industry, as well as for the steel sector [5]. Core Insights - The rapid development of commercial aerospace is driving demand for aerospace stainless steel and high-temperature alloys, which are becoming the new material system for rockets [1][4]. - Stainless steel is increasingly being adopted for rocket structures due to its cost-effectiveness, high-temperature resistance, and ease of processing, while high-temperature alloys are essential for engine components [1][3][4]. - The transition from aluminum alloys to a combination of stainless steel and high-temperature alloys is a significant trend in rocket material evolution, driven by the need for cost reduction and performance enhancement [9][10]. Summary by Sections Historical Context - Historically, aluminum alloys dominated rocket materials, with limited use of stainless steel and high-temperature alloys [1][2]. Current Status - The current rocket material landscape is transitioning from aluminum dominance to the integration of stainless steel and high-temperature alloys, particularly in reusable rocket designs [2][3]. Future Outlook - The future of rocket technology is expected to favor stainless steel and high-temperature alloys due to their superior properties, which are essential for the evolving demands of rocket design and operation [3][4]. Investment Conclusion - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in the supply of stainless steel for rocket tanks and components, as well as leading enterprises in high-temperature alloy production [4][19]. - Key companies identified include Fushun Special Steel, Aerospace Materials, and others that have established a strong foothold in the aerospace materials supply chain [4][19]. Demand Analysis - The demand for rockets is anticipated to surge due to the rapid growth of low Earth orbit satellite constellations, which will drive the need for increased launch frequency and scale [4][45]. Supply Analysis - The supply side of aerospace stainless steel is characterized by high customization and segmentation, with early movers likely to benefit from structural growth opportunities [4][19]. - High-temperature alloy suppliers face significant barriers to entry, indicating a favorable competitive landscape for established players [4][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $178.00 [1][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue decline of 10% year-on-year to $6.89 billion and a net profit drop of 30% to $590 million in FY26Q1, with a gross margin decrease of 1.9 percentage points to 23.2% [1][2] - The decline in revenue is attributed to a decrease in both the number of units sold and the average selling price, with unit sales down 7% and average price down 3% year-on-year [2] - Despite the current pressures, the company is implementing measures to improve turnover efficiency and sales incentives, which may help stabilize performance [3] - The outlook suggests that easing interest rates could gradually alleviate the housing supply-demand imbalance in the U.S., potentially enhancing sales and profit elasticity for the company [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY26Q1 revenue was $6.89 billion, down 10% year-on-year, with net profit at $590 million, down 30% [1][2] - Gross margin for Q1 was 23.2%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 1.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company expects FY26 operating cash flow to reach $3 billion, with a plan for $2.5 billion in share buybacks and $500 million in dividends [4] Market Conditions - The U.S. housing market showed slight improvement in Q4 25, with a 20 basis point decrease in 30-year mortgage rates, although high rates and low affordability continue to suppress demand [3] - The company’s sales units and average price showed mixed results, with net sales units up 2.6% but average price down 2.4% year-on-year [3] Capital Structure and Shareholder Returns - The company maintains a healthy capital structure with a debt-to-asset ratio of 29%, down 1 percentage point from FY25Q4 [4] - Operating cash flow increased by 32% year-on-year to $850 million, with cash on hand exceeding $2.55 billion, more than double the bonds due in FY27-26 [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for FY26-28 are $3.442 billion, $4.059 billion, and $4.610 billion, respectively, with a CAGR of 9% over the three-year period [5] - The report maintains a price-to-tangible book value (P/TBV) estimate of 2.12x for FY26, reflecting a 35% valuation premium due to the company's leading market position and strong shareholder returns [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for iQIYI (IQ US) with a target price of $2.96 [6][4] Core Insights - iQIYI is expected to achieve total revenue of 6.76 billion RMB in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2%, driven by improvements in content ecology and scheduling richness [1][4] - The report highlights the positive impact of the new broadcasting regulations introduced by the National Radio and Television Administration in August 2025, which are expected to enhance the long video industry [1][3] - The company is anticipated to benefit from a reduction in content production review cycles, increased scheduling stability, and improved funding efficiency due to these regulations [1][3] Revenue and Profitability - Membership service revenue is projected to be 4.1 billion RMB in Q4 2025, remaining stable year-on-year but decreasing by 2.7% quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal factors [2] - Online advertising revenue is expected to be 1.33 billion RMB in Q4 2025, showing a year-on-year decline of 7.4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.0%, aided by popular shows and promotional activities [2] - Content distribution revenue is forecasted to reach 790 million RMB in Q4 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 93.5% [2] Market Position and Growth Opportunities - iQIYI maintains a strong market position, holding six of the top ten spots in daily market share for long-form content in 2025 [3] - The international version of iQIYI has seen a robust growth in content viewership, increasing by 114.5% year-on-year [3] - The company is set to open a new theme park in Yangzhou in February 2026, which aims to diversify revenue sources through immersive entertainment products [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The report revises the non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 260 million RMB, 670 million RMB, and 1.02 billion RMB respectively, reflecting better-than-expected cost control [4][11] - The target price of $2.96 is based on a price-to-sales ratio of 0.7x for 2026, which is at a discount compared to the industry average of 4.8x, indicating a cautious outlook on revenue recovery [4][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company is expected to generate revenue of 3.2 billion RMB in Q4 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 1%, with adjusted net profit projected at 1.1 billion RMB, remaining flat year-over-year. This stability in revenue is primarily influenced by strategic adjustments in the freight brokerage and credit solutions businesses. The core freight transaction service's commission penetration and monetization capabilities are on a steady upward trajectory [1][2] - A long-term shareholder return plan has been established, committing to return at least 50% of the previous year's non-GAAP net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks. For 2026, a total of 400 million USD is earmarked for shareholder returns, including 300 million in dividends and 100 million for buybacks, indicating a clear and sustainable return mechanism [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.4 billion, 11.5 billion, and 13.9 billion RMB respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be 4.4 billion, 4.9 billion, and 6.5 billion RMB. The adjustments reflect a strategic contraction in the freight brokerage business, but the long-term profit outlook remains positive due to rapid growth in transaction services [5][11] - The company anticipates a 31% year-over-year increase in commission business revenue to 1.5 billion RMB in Q4 2025, with expectations of double-digit growth in the take rate by the end of 2026 [2] Business Optimization - The freight brokerage business is expected to generate 900 million RMB in Q4 2025, showing a year-over-year decline of 1.4%. The company plans to optimize its business model by collaborating with smaller freight platforms to improve profitability through technology service fees [3] - The company is controlling the scale of its micro-lending business while enhancing risk management, leading to stabilized risk indicators [3] Shareholder Return Mechanism - The long-term shareholder return plan has been approved by the board, ensuring a sustainable return to shareholders based on the company's stable cash flow from core operations [4] Valuation - The report adjusts the valuation to a target price of 16.1 USD for 2026, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 24 times, reflecting a premium valuation due to the company's leading position in China's digital freight market [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company is expected to generate revenue of 3.2 billion RMB in Q4 2025, with a year-over-year change of -1%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.1 billion RMB, remaining flat year-over-year. The overall revenue change is minimal, primarily due to strategic adjustments in the freight brokerage and credit solutions businesses. The core freight transaction service's commission penetration and monetization capabilities are steadily improving [1][2] - The company has announced a long-term shareholder return plan, committing to return at least 50% of the previous year's non-GAAP net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks. For 2026, the total shareholder return is set at 400 million USD, with 300 million allocated for dividends and 100 million for buybacks, indicating a clear and sustainable shareholder return mechanism [1][4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.4 billion, 11.5 billion, and 13.9 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The adjusted net profit is expected to be 4.9 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a long-term positive outlook despite short-term adjustments in the freight brokerage business [5][11] - The report anticipates a 31% year-over-year increase in commission business revenue to 1.5 billion RMB in Q4 2025, with expectations of double-digit growth in the take rate by the end of 2026 [2][3] Business Model and Strategy - The company is optimizing its freight brokerage and credit businesses, maintaining stability in scale and risk. Adjustments in the freight brokerage model, such as collaborating with small network freight platforms, are expected to enhance overall profitability [3] - New business investments, including approximately 500 million RMB in overseas markets and smart home initiatives, are deemed manageable and primarily exploratory, with limited impact on profitability [2] Valuation and Target Price - The report adjusts the valuation to a target price of 16.1 USD for 2026, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24 times, reflecting a premium valuation due to the company's leading position in China's digital freight market and the increasing online penetration rate [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a target price of $110.82 [7] Core Insights - The company reported a 17% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4, exceeding consensus expectations by 0.7%. The gross margin improved by 0.7 percentage points, driven by an increase in paid subscribers to 325 million and a continued rise in advertising revenue, resulting in a net profit growth of 29.4%, which was 2% above expectations [1] - For 2026, the company expects revenue to reach between $50.7 billion and $51.7 billion, aligning with the consensus estimate of $51 billion, while the operating margin is projected at 31.5%, slightly below the expected 32.7% [1] - The report highlights the potential for price increases in the U.S. market, with the company’s advertising package still priced lower than competitors, indicating room for revenue growth [20] - The company’s advertising revenue for 2025 increased by over 250% to $1.5 billion, with expectations for it to double in 2026 as the advertising system matures [3] - The acquisition of Warner Bros. is expected to yield synergies, although the management indicated that the focus will not shift towards a theatrical model in the short to medium term [4] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted downwards by 1.5% and 3% respectively, primarily due to the conclusion of some hit series. Net profit projections for the same years have been reduced by 5.5% and 1.6% to $13.4 billion and $16.6 billion respectively [27] - A new forecast for 2028 has been introduced, projecting revenue of $62.4 billion and net profit of $19.6 billion [27] - The target price has been adjusted from $123.9 to $110.82, reflecting a 35x PE for 2026, which is above the industry average of 26.1x [5] User Engagement and Content Strategy - User engagement remains stable, with a 2% year-over-year increase in viewing hours in the second half of 2025, particularly driven by original series which saw a 9% increase [2] - The company has a strong lineup of returning hit series for 2026, including "Bridgerton" Season 4 and "Night Agent" Season 3, which are expected to attract significant viewership [15] - The company is also expanding its third-party content offerings, including exclusive streaming rights to Sony films and new licensing agreements with Universal and Paramount [15] AI Integration and Advertising Strategy - AI is increasingly integrated into various business lines, enhancing content production and distribution efficiency. The report notes that AI can significantly reduce production costs and time, improving the return on investment for mid-tier content [18] - The company is testing interactive video ads and plans to roll out more features globally, which could further enhance user engagement and advertising revenue [3][19]