证券研究报告 多元金融 公募考核改革引导归本溯源 华泰研究 2025 年 12 月 07 日│中国内地 动态点评 多元金融 增持 (维持) | 沈娟 | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570514040002 | shenjuan@htsc.com | | SFC No. BPN843 | +(86) 755 2395 2763 | | 汪煜 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570523010003 | wangyu017005@htsc.com | | SFC No. BRZ146 | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 孙亦欣* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070004 sunyixin@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 行业走势图 (19) (9) 1 10 20 Dec-24 Apr-25 Aug-25 Dec-25 (%) 多元金融 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 公募考核改革引导归本溯源 据财联社，近日《基金管理公司绩效考核管理指引（征求意见稿）》已下发， 是近年来公募基金系列改革的又一重要里程碑。相较于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities and banking sectors, while also recommending a focus on quality insurance companies [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights investment opportunities in the order of securities > banking > insurance, emphasizing the optimization of performance evaluation rules for fund companies, which is expected to enhance long-term incentive mechanisms and promote sustainable development in the fund industry [12][31]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced new regulations to strengthen governance and oversight across the entire lifecycle of listed companies, which is anticipated to improve market stability and investor confidence [15][16]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to support liquidity, particularly during the year-end and Spring Festival periods, with major banks expected to begin distributing mid-term dividends [31][33]. Summary by Sections Securities - The CSRC has proposed to relax capital and leverage restrictions for high-quality securities firms, which is expected to enhance their operational efficiency [14]. - In November, the number of new A-share accounts increased by 3% month-on-month, with a year-to-date growth of 8%, indicating sustained market interest [18]. - The report recommends focusing on high-quality brokers with low price-to-book (PB) ratios, including CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and GF Securities [12][13]. Banking - The PBOC's recent reverse repurchase operations are aimed at ensuring ample liquidity in the market, especially during high-demand periods [31][32]. - The report notes that the banking sector's PB ratio is currently at 0.71, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels, suggesting potential for recovery [31]. - Recommended banking stocks include Nanjing Bank, Chengdu Bank, and Shanghai Bank, which are considered high-quality picks [31][33]. Insurance - The insurance sector has shown resilience, with regulatory adjustments to risk factors for equity investments leading to a significant increase in stock prices [46]. - The report suggests that investors should focus on leading insurance companies, such as China Life and Ping An, which are expected to benefit from improved liquidity conditions [46][47]. - Regulatory changes are aimed at encouraging long-term investments by insurance companies, which could enhance their stability and support economic growth [48][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Amazon with a target price of $351.87 [7][5]. Core Insights - Amazon's recent re:Invent conference showcased significant updates, including the launch of the Trainium3 chip and enhancements to its Agent development ecosystem, which are expected to accelerate demand for AI agents by 2026 [1][2]. - The performance of the Trainium3 chip has improved significantly, with a 4.4x increase in computing power and a 4x increase in efficiency compared to its predecessor [2]. - The introduction of the Nova2 series models emphasizes high cost-effectiveness, catering to various applications including multimodal inference and image generation [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The financial projections for Amazon from 2025 to 2027 indicate adjusted net profits of $75.4 billion, $87 billion, and $110.5 billion respectively [5][13]. - The report utilizes a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, maintaining a target price of $351.87, which corresponds to a 42.9x PE ratio for 2026 [5][15]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are projected at $718 billion and $806 billion respectively, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 12.5% [11][23]. Product and Service Developments - The Agent development ecosystem has seen over 2 million downloads of the AgentCore platform within five months, with new features enhancing its capabilities [3]. - The Strands Agents SDK has been updated to support TypeScript and edge devices, broadening the scope for developers [3]. - The Nova2 series models include various products tailored for specific tasks, reinforcing Amazon's commitment to high-performance AI solutions [4]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Amazon has deployed over 1 million Trainium chips, with a significant portion of inference tasks on Bedrock being handled by these chips, indicating a strong integration of self-developed hardware within its cloud services [2]. - The report highlights Amazon's strategy to align its chip architecture with NVIDIA's ecosystem, which is expected to enhance performance and reduce costs [2].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the insurance sector, encouraging long-term investments in large-cap stocks, dividend stocks, and stocks listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1][4]. Core Insights - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has adjusted the risk factors for insurance companies, reducing the risk factor for long-term holdings of stocks in the CSI 300 Index and the CSCI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index by 10% [1][2]. - The adjustment reflects a regulatory push to encourage insurance capital to enter the market and emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies [1][3]. - The report estimates that the equity risk portion accounts for 18% to 46% of total capital consumption for major life insurance companies, with the adjusted risk factors providing a slight improvement in solvency [2][12]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The risk factors for stocks with an average holding period of over three years in the CSI 300 Index and the CSCI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index have been reduced from 0.3 to 0.27, while those for stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board with an average holding period of over two years have been reduced from 0.4 to 0.36 [2][22]. - This adjustment is part of a broader trend since the implementation of the risk-oriented solvency system in 2016, which has seen periodic adjustments to equity investment capital consumption [4][21]. Long-term Investment Focus - The report highlights that the current regulatory changes are aimed at promoting long-term investments, particularly in large-cap dividend stocks, which are expected to be included in the FVOCI accounting category [3][18]. - Major insurance companies have significantly increased their holdings in dividend stocks, with an estimated allocation of over 920 billion RMB in FVOCI stocks as of the first half of 2025 [3][14]. Market Trends - The emphasis on dividend stocks aligns with the trend of insurance companies relying on dividend income to compensate for declining cash yields [5][14]. - The report suggests that the insurance sector is transitioning from a phase of aggressive buying to a more selective investment strategy, focusing on balancing and optimizing their dividend stock portfolios [5][14].

证券研究报告 汽车 25 年两新政策刺激行业景气度，反内卷驱动促销力度收敛，25 年 1-10 月 自主份额由去年同期 60%提至 66%，其中中低端增速最快。展望 26 年，我 们预计乘用车批发/零售销量同比+3%/-1%，总量平淡。国内方面，我们汇 总 100+个 26 年新车，预计国内车企竞争更激烈，结构上，自主高端发力大 五/六座 SUV 市场，关注小米 YU9、蔚来 ES7、极氪 8X、启境 F05、问界 M9L、零跑 D19、魏牌 DE 系列等重磅车型。出海方面，我们看好欧洲新能 源市场高增，预计 26 年欧洲新能源销量为 365 万辆（yoy+35%），驱动力 为碳排放法规及优质新车供给，此外我们看好新兴市场自主本地产能放量。 零部件：出海提速，科技突围扩展成长空间 汽零板块 26 年重点关注全球化+新赛道。出海方面，欧美市场空间大 ASP 高+欧洲电动化提速+传统国际巨头处于转型阵痛期+海外主机厂降本需求， 汽零出海迎来结构性机遇，特别关注细分赛道龙头。AI 革新汽零新成长， 汽零企业在技术同源/客户资源导入/制造等优势明显，进攻新领域驱动板块 由传统制造向"科技+高端制造"重塑，有望带来业绩 ...

Group 1 - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI chain, emphasizing the impact of the storage cycle and the acceleration of self-control in the industry [1] - In 2026, the focus will be on the AI chain, storage cycles, and the acceleration of self-control, with expectations of continued growth in the electronics sector driven by AI data centers and terminal demand recovery [1][3] - The storage sector is expected to enter a price increase cycle starting in the second half of 2025 due to significant supply-demand imbalances [1][3] Group 2 - The Scaling Law remains effective, transitioning into a 2.0 phase that enhances model capabilities and drives demand for computing power [2][18] - The demand for high-end PCBs is anticipated to increase significantly in 2026, driven by the upgrade of AI server platforms and the growth of cloud service providers' self-developed ASICs [2][73] - The AI-driven demand for storage is expected to grow rapidly, with major storage manufacturers like SanDisk, Micron, and Samsung announcing price increases, indicating a sustained upward trend in storage prices [3][60] Group 3 - The domestic storage chip and module manufacturers are expected to benefit from the upward cycle in storage prices, with a focus on DRAM and NAND markets [3][4] - The trend towards domestic production in the storage sector is expected to continue, with companies like Changxin and Changcun expanding capacity and market share [4][66] - The consumer electronics sector may face pressure from rising storage prices, particularly affecting Android smartphones and PCs, while new product innovations could catalyze market recovery [5][72] Group 4 - The report highlights the importance of advanced processes and domestic production in the semiconductor industry, with a focus on improving production capacity and technology [4][68] - The AI chip market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.19% expected from 2025 to 2030, driven by strong demand for AI training and inference [60][66] - The custom AI chip market is anticipated to expand rapidly, with a forecasted CAGR of 53% from 2024 to 2028, as domestic internet companies increasingly adopt a dual approach of third-party procurement and self-developed ASICs [72][73]

今日早参 2025 年 12 月 05 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 庄汀洲 石油与化工行业首席研究员 座机：010-56793939 邮箱：zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：人民币升值渐入佳境 10 月后，虽然美元指数有所反弹，但人民币兑美元汇率总体走强。昨天 （12 月 3 日），离岸人民币盘中突破 7.06，达到 14 个月高点。近期，离岸 人民币汇率表现强于中间价和在岸汇率，显示市场对人民币升值的预期升 温。经历了 2022 年 2 季度至 2025 年上半年 3 年多的有效汇率下行周期 后，今年 5-6 月后，市场对人民币汇率的预期走过磨底、蓄势、温和修复的 过程——目前人民币升值作为一个在年初"反共识"的观点，已经渐渐变成 部分市场人士的共识（参见《人民币：蓄势已久的升值》，2025/8/31，以及 《人民币升值逐渐走出"独立行情"》，2025/10/29）。我们认为，随着近期 美联储降息预期的下修基本到位，中国表观经济数据短期走弱的迷雾逐渐消 散（参见《如何理解中观数据"温差？》,2025/11/23），出口增长保持强 劲，春节前结 ...

证券研究报告 淮河能源 (600575 CH) 保底股息率 5.2%的煤电一体化标的 2025 年 12 月 04 日│中国内地 发电 近期煤价波动上行、各省正开展 2026 年年度电力市场化交易工作，火电公 司 2026 年盈利预期不确定性较高，市场对相对稳健的高股息标的青睐度提 升。我们看好淮河能源原因如下：1）公司承诺 2025-27 年不低于 75%分红 比例且 DPS 不低于 0.19 元，最低 DPS 对应保底股息率 5.2%；2）煤价小 幅上行阶段，煤电一体化公司燃煤成本上涨压力显著小于低比例长协煤的纯 电力公司；3）集团优质资产注入有望提升公司资产规模和盈利能力。维持 "买入"评级。 集团优质资产注入有望同时提升公司资产规模和盈利能力 2025/4/17，公司以 11.94 亿元受让国开基金持有的电力集团 10.7%股权； 2025/11/21，公司发股及现金购买淮南矿业集团持有电力集团 89.3%股权的 发股购买资产注册已获得证监会批复。按照电力集团 2024 年财务数据测算， 本次集团资产注入的 PE/PB 为 12.4/1.1x。截至 2025 年 9 月底，电力集团 的在运权益煤电装机 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The Japanese central bank's potential interest rate hike in December could lead to an increase in government bond yields, influenced by high inflation and upcoming fiscal stimulus [2][3] - Global macroeconomic and policy expectations have been recalibrated, with service sector PMIs in the US, Europe, and Japan remaining high, while manufacturing PMIs have declined [3] - The market is experiencing fluctuations in response to the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook, with mixed performances in US stock indices and a decline in oil prices [3] Group 2: Fixed Income Analysis - Cross-period price differences in interest rate derivatives are influenced by the CTD bond's coupon rate, full price, and three-month repo rates, along with market sentiment [4] - The movement of contracts during the roll period indicates strong participation in positive spreads, leading to an initial increase in cross-period price differences [4] Group 3: Consumer Sector Opportunities - The consumer sector is witnessing structural changes driven by technology and innovation, with new consumption trends emerging in areas like trendy toys, beauty products, and ready-to-drink beverages [6] - Investment strategies should focus on four main themes: the rise of domestic brands, technology-enabled consumption, emotional spending, and undervalued high-dividend blue-chip stocks [6] Group 4: Aerospace and Defense - The development of reusable rockets is crucial for reducing costs and increasing capacity in space activities, with companies like SpaceX leading the way [7] - China's advancements in reusable rocket technology, such as the Zhuque-3 and Long March 12, are expected to enhance space launch capabilities and reduce costs [7] Group 5: Energy Sector Analysis - Xin'ao Energy's privatization process is progressing, with key regulatory approvals completed, and the company is showing strong operational performance in natural gas retail [8] - The company's fundamentals are improving, supported by expanding projects and increasing customer penetration rates, leading to a positive long-term outlook [8] Group 6: Rating Changes - Recent adjustments in stock ratings include upgrades for companies like Hayuan Engineering and new buy ratings for firms such as Aerospace Intelligence Manufacturing and BOSS Zhipin, reflecting positive earnings forecasts [9]

Macro Overview - The price indicators for November show a moderate recovery, with PPI's year-on-year decline expected to continue narrowing and CPI showing a slight rebound. The optimization of supply-demand dynamics is gradually becoming evident as companies exercise self-discipline in capacity expansion [2][3] - Overall consumption and investment remain relatively flat, but actual total demand appears more stable than surface macro data. Consumption is showing a differentiated trend, with some categories weakening due to subsidy reductions, while discretionary services like business travel and hotels are stabilizing [2][3] - Social financing and credit issuance are expected to increase slightly year-on-year, reflecting the impact of policy financial tools. The fiscal expenditure data for the fourth quarter may decline compared to the first half of the year due to last year's high base, allowing for policy space for a strong start in the first quarter of next year [2][3] Fixed Income Insights - In a consensus-driven environment, potential expectation gaps may arise regarding the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion, overseas inflation risks, and the U.S. credit environment. The article discusses these underpriced market directions and tail risks [3][4] - Asset allocation strategies should focus on high volatility environments, with an emphasis on improving odds in sectors like Hong Kong internet, pharmaceuticals, and cyclical domestic sectors [3][4] Transportation Sector Analysis - For 2026, three main lines of focus are recommended: 1. **Aviation**: Supply is expected to slow down further, with demand showing marginal improvement, leading to increased passenger load factors and ticket prices. The state-owned airlines are preferred due to their high win rates and odds [6][7] 2. **Oil Shipping**: Benefiting from OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical factors, oil shipping rates are expected to rise significantly. Preferred stocks include COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [6][7] 3. **Alpha Stocks**: Attractive valuations in industry leaders and companies with broad niche market potential are highlighted, such as ZTO Express and SF Express [6][7] Company-Specific Insights - **Zhonghui Group (382 HK, Buy)**: Reported FY25 revenue of 2.489 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, with net profit of 514 million yuan, down 28.1% year-on-year. The company maintains a cash dividend rate of approximately 30%, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [7] - **China Education Group (1890 HK, Buy)**: Reported FY25 revenue of 1.872 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, with net profit of 748 million yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year. The company declared a final dividend of 0.06 HKD per share, maintaining a cash dividend ratio of about 30% [7] Rating Changes - **Hayan Engineering (KAP)**: Target price adjusted to 58.91, rating changed from Buy to Accumulate [8] - **Aerospace Intelligence (300446)**: Initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a target price of 26.00 [8] - **BOSS Zhipin (2076)**: Initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a target price of 107.60 [8]