证券研究报告 苹果(Apple) (AAPL US) iPhone17 供不应求，关注存储涨价及 与 Google AI 合作进展 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 | 30 日│美国 | 消费电子 | 目标价(美元): | 288.00 | 苹果发布 1QFY26 业绩：收入 1,438 亿美元，同比+15.7%，超彭博一致预 期 4%，主要受益于 iPhone17 系列的强劲销售（收入同比+23%，超彭博一 致预期 9%）；并且服务收入同比+14%亦创新高。本季度公司整体毛利率 48.2%，并指引下季度毛利率维持 48%-49%的较高水平，在存储涨价背景 下均好于市场预期。我们认为，苹果作为全球消费电子行业的领导者，拥有 全球较为高端的用户，在存储涨价的大背景下受到的影响有望好于安卓同 业，并且公司已经同 Google 达成大模型上的合作，有望在 AI 时代通过多 元化的服务持续变现获得可持续的高毛利收入。我们维持目标价 288 美元， 对应 34.8x FY2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $896.00 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a 24% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 2025, reaching $59.9 billion, exceeding consensus expectations by 2.5% [4]. - The net profit for Q4 2025 increased by 9.3% year-over-year to $22.8 billion, also surpassing expectations by 8% [4]. - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, higher than the anticipated $51.3 billion, with currency fluctuations contributing a 4% revenue increase [4]. - The company is projected to accelerate capital expenditures (Capex) in 2026, with an estimated spending of $115 billion to $135 billion [7]. - The introduction of new AI models is expected to enhance advertising effectiveness, contributing significantly to revenue growth [13]. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 have been increased by 7.2% and 12.8% to $254 billion and $304 billion, respectively, driven by the launch of more AI products [9]. - The net profit forecast for 2026 and 2027 has been adjusted downwards by 3.6% and 2% to $76.5 billion and $90 billion, respectively, due to rising R&D expenses and depreciation [9]. - The report introduces a new revenue forecast for 2028, estimating $353 billion in revenue and $105.8 billion in net profit [9]. - The target price of $896 corresponds to a 29.65x PE ratio for 2026, slightly adjusted from the previous $900 target [9]. Business Segment Performance - Advertising revenue in Q4 2025 grew by 24% year-over-year to $58.1 billion, with average revenue per user (ARPU) increasing by 16% [5]. - The company’s other revenue streams, including WhatsApp paid messaging and subscription services, saw a 54% increase year-over-year [5]. - The Reality Labs segment experienced a 12% decline in revenue to $960 million, attributed to a high base from previous quarters [5]. Strategic Developments - The Threads platform is expected to contribute between $2.3 billion and $6.5 billion in net profit for 2026, with a projected average daily active user (DAU) of approximately 220 million [14]. - The company has initiated the Meta Compute plan, aiming to build extensive computing facilities over the next decade, with significant investments in chip and energy sectors [16]. - Meta has acquired Limitless, an AI wearable device company, to enhance its audio processing and memory capabilities, complementing its existing hardware offerings [19]. Regulatory Environment - The company is currently facing an antitrust investigation by the EU regarding WhatsApp, which may have long-term implications but is not expected to have immediate substantial impacts on operations [17].

证券研究报告 东材科技 (601208 CH) 电子树脂等景气推动 25 年净利高增 | 华泰研究 | | | 公告点评 | | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | | 化学制品 | 目标价(人民币): | 34.08 | 东材科技公布年度业绩预告： 25 年预计实现归母净利约 3.0 亿元 （yoy+66%），预计实现扣非净利约 2.5 亿元（yoy+101%）。2025 年 Q4 预计实现归母净利 0.17 亿元（yoy+131%），扣非净利 0.18 亿元 （yoy+149%）。考虑电子树脂对公司业绩贡献的成长性较好，维持"买入" 评级。 下游 AI 等需求旺盛，公司 25 年业绩预计同比高增 据 25 年公司业绩预告，受益于下游人工智能、特高压、新能源车等新兴领 域高速发展及消费电子需求改善，公司研发生产的高速电子树脂（双马来酰 亚胺树脂、活性酯树脂、碳氢树脂、聚苯醚树脂等）、特高压用电工聚丙烯 薄膜、新能源汽车用超薄型电子聚丙烯薄膜、中高端光学聚酯基膜等高附 ...

证券研究报告 锅圈 (2517 HK) 港股通 Q4 开店加速，利润率快速提升 2026 年 1 月 30 日│中国香港 餐饮 | 华泰研究 | | | 公告点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 | 30 日│中国香港 | 餐饮 | 目标价(港币): | 5.08 | | 锅圈发布 | | 25 年业绩预告，预计收入 | 77.5-78.5 亿元，同增 19.8-21.3%；净 | 樊俊豪 SAC No. S0570524050001 | 研究员 fanjunhao@htsc.com | SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 +(852) 3658 6000 石狄 研究员 shidi@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 资料来源：公司公告、华泰研究预测 杨耀* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070059 yangyao@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 基本数据 | 收盘价 (港币 截至 1 月 29 日) ...

证券研究报告 万辰集团 (300972 CH) 盈利能力明显提升，Q4 店效趋势向好 华泰研究 公告点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(人民币): 276.00 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 石狄 研究员 SAC No. S0570524090003 SFC No. BVO045 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 季珂* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525080003 jike@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 收盘价 (人民币 截至 1 月 29 日) 203.25 市值 (人民币百万) 38,392 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) 465.58 52 周价格范围 (人民币) 79.56-228.12 股价走势图 (23) 14 50 87 123 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 (%) 万辰集团 沪深300 资料来源：Wind 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (人民币) | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 202 ...

证券研究报告 港股通 东方甄选 (1797 HK) 品牌化转型潜力可期 2026 年 1 月 30 日│中国香港 互联网 东方甄选 FY26H1（25 年 6 月至 25 年 11 月）实现收入约 23.1 亿元 （yoy+5.7%），经调整净利润 2.58 亿元（FY25H1 为-0.02 亿元）。收入/ 经调整净利润约占我们前次全年预测的 43%/69%，主因自营品热销及人员 效率提升驱动盈利能力释放。公司持续强化自营产品的开发、完善供应链能 力及会员服务体系，通过多平台多渠道战略拓展更广泛的消费群体，品牌知 名度和影响力有望持续提升，我们看好公司向品牌化转型的长线发展潜力， 维持"买入"。 自营品表现亮眼，驱动品牌化转型 FY26H1 公司实现 GMV 41 亿元，收入约 23.1 亿元，剔除与辉同行相关影 响后我们估计 GMV yoy+16%，营收 yoy+17%，展现短期波动后公司强大 的经营韧性，从流量驱动向品牌化稳步转型。FY26H1 自营产品占总 GMV 的比例进一步提升至 52.8%（FY25：43.8%），自营产品 SPU 较 FY25 新 增 69 款至 801 款，产品类别从生鲜食品扩 ...

证券研究报告 万辰集团 (300972 CH) 盈利能力明显提升，Q4 店效趋势向好 华泰研究 公告点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(人民币): 276.00 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 石狄 研究员 SAC No. S0570524090003 SFC No. BVO045 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 季珂* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525080003 jike@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 会计年度 (人民币) | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (百万) | 32,329 | 51,941 | 62,330 | 72,305 | | +/-% | 247.86 | 60.66 | 20.00 | 16.00 | | 归属母公司净利润 | 293.52 | 1,381 | 2,054 | 2,520 | | (百万) | | | ...

证券研究报告 泽璟制药 (688266 CH) 中国 TCE 龙头进军全球市场 | 华泰研究 | | | 首次覆盖 | 投资评级(首评): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 | 29 日│中国内地 | 化学制药 | 目标价(人民币): | 166.16 | 首次覆盖泽璟制药并给予"买入"评级，目标价 166.16 元。泽璟制药为较 早开始进行 TCE（T cell engager，T 细胞衔接器）领域研发的创新药企， 我们认为重磅产品 ZG006（DLL3/DLL3/CD3）具有国际竞争力，预计国内 峰值超 40 亿元，海外峰值近 60 亿美元；同时公司已有 4 款 1 类创新药在 中国上市销售，现金流业务或可持续支持早期创新管线研发。 国内 TCE 龙头，DLL3/DLL3/CD3 具备 BIC 潜力，联手艾伯维出海 我们预计 ZG006 国内峰值超 40 亿元，海外峰值近 60 亿美元，基于：1） 小细胞肺癌患者多预后差：24年全球/中国患者约37/15万（Global Cancer）， 1L 用药 PD-L1+化疗，2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer discretionary sector [7] Core Insights - The "Work Plan" issued by the State Council aims to stimulate domestic demand by fostering new growth points in service consumption, focusing on six key areas including transportation, housekeeping, and online audiovisual services, as well as three potential areas: performance services, sports events, and emotional experience services [1][2] - The report emphasizes that service consumption is a natural direction for consumption upgrading and the pursuit of a better life by residents, with significant long-term potential in China as service consumption typically increases with GDP growth [1] - The report suggests that the recovery of service consumption will help shift traffic from online to offline, benefiting related industries such as dining, tourism, and retail [1] Summary by Sections Service Consumption Growth - The "Work Plan" includes twelve specific measures to enhance service consumption, with a focus on optimizing supply and encouraging innovative consumption scenarios [2][4] - The report highlights the importance of developing high-quality supply and encourages proactive exploration of new business models in the service sector [4] Transportation and Tourism Integration - The "Work Plan" proposes initiatives such as developing senior tourism trains and enhancing the quality of cruise and night tour services, which are expected to benefit related sectors [3] - The report notes that the integration of transportation and tourism, along with the emergence of quality tourism supply, will lead to an upturn in specific tourism segments [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the consumer sector, including: - Travel Chain: Recommended companies include Atour, Huazhu Group, Shoulv Hotel, and China Duty Free [5] - Ready-to-Drink Beverages and Dining: Recommended companies include Guming, Yum China, Yihai International, Dashihua, Chabaidao, Xiaocaiyuan, and Haidilao [5] - Emotional Consumption: Recommended companies include Pop Mart, Laopu Gold, Blukoo, Miniso, Shangmei, Maogeping, and Juzibio [5] - Scenario Chains: Recommended companies include Guoquan, Wancheng Group, Wanwu Xingsheng, and Shengbeila [5] - Sports Apparel: Recommended companies include Anta, Amer Sports, and Li Ning [5] Key Company Insights - Pop Mart has initiated share buybacks, reflecting confidence in growth prospects, and is expected to accelerate the diversification of its IP structure [12] - Laopu Gold is anticipated to perform well during the upcoming Spring Festival, with expectations of exceeding sales forecasts due to ongoing brand expansion and strong market demand [12] - Miniso's recent performance has exceeded guidance, driven by a successful large store strategy and improved operational efficiency [12]

今日早参 2026 年 1 月 30 日 陈慎 房地产行业首席研究员 座机：021 38476038 邮箱：chenshen@htsc.com 樊俊豪 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 房地产开发/房地产服务：四个维度驱动地产股估值修复 近期 AH 地产股表现跑赢大盘指数，1 月 19-29 日 Wind 香港房地产指数上涨 7.3%，行业排名 3/11，A 股申万房地产指数上涨 5.5%，行业排名 6/31。我 们认为低估值和多维驱动是此次地产股估值修复的动力。展望后市，我们认 为港股流动性宽松、板块低估值、地产基本面边际改善预期是这轮地产股修 复的底色，当前到 3 月份是政策和"小阳春"共振的窗口期，政策预期和市 场回暖迹象都有助于地产股估值持续修复。 风险提示：政策波动风险，基本面复苏不及预期风险，部分房企经营风险。 研报发布日期：2026-01-30 金控研究部负责人暨可选消费首席研 究员 邮箱：fanjunhao@htsc.com 研究员 陈慎 SAC:S0570519010002 SFC:BIO834 戚康 ...