2025 年 10 月 31 日│中国内地 航空运输 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 10 月 | 31 日│中国内地 | 航空运输 | 目标价(人民币): | 75.50 | 沈晓峰 研究员 证券研究报告 春秋航空 (601021 CH) 低成本龙头有望受益景气改善 | 会计年度 (人民币) | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (百万) | 20,000 | 21,059 | 23,774 | 26,888 | | +/-% | 11.50 | 5.30 | 12.89 | 13.10 | | 归属母公司净利润 | 2,273 | 2,248 | 3,047 | 3,579 | | (百万) | | | | | | +/-% | 0.69 | (1.08) | 35.53 | 17.46 | | EPS (最新摊薄) | 2.32 | 2.30 | 3.11 | ...

证券研究报告 浙江鼎力 (603338 CH) 持续发挥差异化优势，深化平台+机器人 浙江鼎力发布三季报：Q3 实现营收 23.39 亿元（yoy+2.83%，qoq-4.08%）， 归母净利 5.42 亿元（yoy-14.72%，qoq-13.00%）。2025 年 Q1-Q3 实现营 收 66.75 亿元（yoy+8.82%），归母净利 15.95 亿元（yoy+9.18%），扣非 净利 15.56 亿元（yoy+4.96%）。公司单季度归母净利承压主要由于短期汇 率波动导致财务费用同比有较大增长。展望未来，产品端由于公司差异化产 品的竞争优势有望持续体现，销售端由于公司在 25 年积极扩大美国销售服 务网略，未来有望持续提升市占率，维持"增持"评级。 Q3 单季度毛利率同比略降环比增长，关税影响有限 2025 年 Q3 单季度毛利率 36.12%，同比-1.48pct，环比 4.12pct。公司毛利 率同比略降主要由于受到一定美国关税影响，但通过成本优化，产品结构调 整等多种方式依然保持了较高盈利能力；Q3 毛利率环比增长主要由于 Q2 通常为国内销售旺季，Q3 外销占比提升带来盈利能力增长。公司作为出 ...

证券研究报告 前三季度公司油气净产量 578.3 百万桶油当量，同比增长 6.7%，其中石油 液体/天然气产量 445.1 百万桶/777.5 十亿立方英尺，同比增长 5.4%/11.6%， 主要系"深海一号"二期全面投产，以及巴西 Mero3 等带来的产量贡献。 Brent 期货 Q3 均价同比-13.4%至 68.2 美元/桶，公司 Q3 实现油价同比 -12.8%至 66.2 美元/桶，实现气价同比+0.6%至 7.8 美元/千立方英尺。公司 桶油成本控制良好，除桶油五项中的其他税金外，前三季度同比下降 0.33 美元/桶至 23.73 美元/桶，油气销售收入同比-5.9%至 2555 亿元，综合毛利 率同比-2.2pct 至 52.2%，其中 Q3 单季度同环比降 6.3/2.4pct 至 49.8%。 华泰研究 季报点评 中国海油 (600938 CH/883 HK) 港股通 降本增效筑牢抵御油价波动韧性 2025 年 10 月 31 日│中国内地/中国香港 石油（天然气）开采 公司于 10 月 30 日发布三季报：前三季度实现营业收入 3125 亿元，同比降 4%，实现归母净利润 1020 亿元（ ...

证券研究报告 智能云营收超预期，OpenAI 合作有望持续赋能 公司 FY26Q1 智能云营收 309 亿美元（yoy+28%），超 VA 一致预期 2.07%； 其中 Azure 及其他云服务收入同比+40%，优于此前指引的 37%。智能云业 务超预期增长主要得益于公司产能增加以及大型客户（OpenAI 等）订单快 速增长。25 年 10 月，公司与 OpenAI 合作升级，公告显示 OpenAI 延长 Azure 独家 API 与 IP 权至 2032 年，同时 OpenAI 同意增购约达 2,500 亿 美元的 Azure 服务。我们认为，公司与 OpenAI 的合作有望带来未来云服务 的持续需求，叠加 AI 应用的加速落地，看好后续智能云业务加速放量。 Copilot MAU 超 1.5 亿，FY26 Copilot 放量可期 公司自有 AI 应用规模化进程提速，FY26Q1 公司 AI 功能总活跃用户超 9 亿， 环比+12.5%；Copilot 月活用户数（MAU）超 1.5 亿，环比+50%；同时 Copilot 产品加速企业端推广，覆盖超 90%的财富 500 强企业。根据公司电话会表 述，B ...

证券研究报告 山东黄金 (600547 CH/1787 HK) 港股通 推测成本及非经因素影响三季度业绩 华泰研究 季报点评 金价短期回调不改长期逻辑，关注企稳后增配机会 10 月 21 日晚国际金价创 12 年来最大单日跌幅 5.3%，背后核心原因是俄乌 冲突缓和+中美贸易摩擦边际缓和，市场避险情绪大幅回落。但全球秩序重 构期，黄金仍是最合适的避险资产。我们认为短期下跌不影响黄金长期逻辑， 回调反而提供加仓机会，企稳后建议重新关注。22 日当天典型黄金公司股 价跌幅反而好于金价本身，说明市场对黄金相关资产的长期配置价值的共识 未发生改变。建议关注金价企稳后黄金相关资产的增配机会。 盈利预测与估值 2025 年 10 月 31 日│中国内地/中国香港 贵金属 山东黄金发布三季报：Q3 实现营收 270.17 亿 元 （ yoy+27.25%， qoq-12.37%），归母净利 11.48 亿元（yoy+68.24%，qoq-35.58%）。2025 年 Q1-Q3 实现营收 837.83 亿元（yoy+25.04%），归母净利 39.56 亿元 （yoy+91.51%），扣非净利 39.45 亿元（yoy+8 ...

证券研究报告 五粮液 (000858 CH) 公司主动释放压力轻装上阵 | 华泰研究 | 季报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 10 月 31 日│中国内地 | 饮料 | 目标价(人民币): | 149.16 | | 公司公告 2025 年三季度报，25 年 Q1-Q3 总营收/归母净利/扣非净利 | | 龚源月 SAC No. S0570520100001 | 研究员 gongyuanyue@htsc.com | | 609.5/215.1/214.9 亿，同比-10.3%/-13.7%/-13.4%；25Q3 | 总营收/归母净 | SFC No. BQL737 | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 宋英男 研究员 SAC No. S0570523100004 SFC No. BVO704 songyingnan@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 10 月 30 日) | 118.47 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 459,85 ...

证券研究报告 公司坚持产品全面发展战略，均衡发展各系列产品，以分散行业波动风险。 2025 年公司进一步丰富产品线，重点研发精密铣镗床、立式及卧式车铣复 合加工中心、直线电机双主轴五轴龙门及卧式加工中心、半导体行业专用机 型、数控磨床等系列 20 余款高端装备。在核心功能部件自主研发方面，开 发了 45°非正交五轴摆头、大扭矩铣镗床直角铣头等核心功能部件。此外， VNL500HFT 高精度重型立式车铣磨复合加工中心和高精度重型立式车削 中心关键技术与应用通过了江苏省机械行业协会新产品鉴定和成果鉴定。 瞄准行业售后痛点，深耕本土市场打造定制化快速响应服务体系 纽威数控 (688697 CH) 毛利率短期承压，新产品积极拓展 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 10 月 | 31 日│中国内地 | 通用机械 | 目标价(人民币): | 21.12 | 纽威数控发布三季报：Q3实现营收7.92亿元（yoy+17.86%，qoq+11.63%）， 归母净利7625.31万元（yoy- ...

证券研究报告 汾酒延续稳健增长，全国化加速布局 2025 年 10 月 31 日│中国内地 饮料 公司公告 2025 年三季度报，25 年 Q1-Q3 总营收/归母净利/扣非净利 329.2/114.0/114.1 亿，同比+5.0%/+0.5%/+0.5%；25Q3 总营收/归母净利/ 扣非净利 89.6/29.0/29.0 亿，同比+4.1%/-1.4%/-1.6%。24 年公司圆满完成 汾酒复兴计划的第一阶段，25 年是公司汾酒复兴纲领第二阶段，公司定调 "稳健"，前三季度在外部需求承压情况下表现稳健，为全年打下坚实基础。 展望全年，产品端公司将坚持四轮驱动；渠道端优化经销商考核结构；市场 端在稳固基地市场基础上，发力全国化市场扩张，经营向上趋势不改。维持 "买入"。 山西汾酒 (600809 CH) 全国化布局，经营韧性凸显 1）产品端：25Q1-Q3 汾酒/其他酒类营收 321.7/6.5 亿（同比+5.5%/-15.9%）， 25Q3 营收同比变化+5.0%/-28.6%；前三季度汾酒占营收比重同比+0.5pct 至 98.0%。公司积极打造全方位产品矩阵，我们预计前三季度玻汾进度更快； 青花系列 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and "Maintain" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the release of new production capacity, which may drive performance recovery [1] - The company's net profit is showing continuous recovery, and as a leader in the lithium resource industry, it has significant earnings elasticity in the future [1] - The improvement in gross margin in Q3 is attributed to the rise in lithium prices, with the average price of lithium carbonate reaching 73,000 RMB/ton, up 11.91% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The demand for lithium is expected to remain strong due to high growth in energy storage, supporting the growth of lithium carbonate demand [3] - The company is set to increase its lithium concentrate production capacity with the expected launch of the Greenbushes CGP3 project by the end of 2025 [4] - The company's earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.791 billion, 2.827 billion, and 3.553 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.09, 1.72, and 2.16 RMB [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.565 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 29.66% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.06% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 was 95.485 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 119.26% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 580.70% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 7.397 billion RMB, down 26.50% year-on-year, with a net profit of 180 million RMB, up 103.16% year-on-year [1] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 37.57%, improving quarter-on-quarter by 3.11 percentage points, although it decreased by 6.56 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The total expense ratio for the first three quarters was 2.94%, down 2.62 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Outlook - The lithium price is expected to maintain an upward trend due to supply constraints and strong demand from the energy storage sector [3] - The domestic lithium carbonate social inventory has decreased from 140,000 tons in early August to around 130,000 tons by October 23, indicating tightening supply [3] Production Capacity Expansion - The company has established an annual lithium concentrate production capacity of 1.62 million tons, with the Greenbushes CGP3 project expected to add another 520,000 tons by December 2025 [4] - The company has also commenced production of a new lithium hydroxide project with an annual capacity of 30,000 tons [4] Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company's A/H shares is set at 68.30 RMB and 64.24 HKD respectively, based on a PB ratio of 2.41 for 2026 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][5] Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 17.815 billion in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 35%, driven by strong equity investment performance and significant growth in insurance service performance [1] - The annualized total investment return for the first three quarters was 5.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating profit after tax (OPAT) for Q3 increased by 8.2% year-on-year, showing an improvement from the first half of the year [1][4] - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance increased by 29.4% year-on-year in Q3, indicating robust growth, while the combined ratio (COR) for property insurance improved to 97.6%, a decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Life Insurance - The NBV for life insurance showed a year-on-year increase of 29.4% in Q3, slightly down from 32.3% in the first half of 2025. New single premiums decreased by 3.7%, but the NBV profit margin improved by approximately 7.2 percentage points [2] - The agent channel saw a 13.5% year-on-year growth in new single premiums, indicating a recovery from previous declines. The company expects a 32% year-on-year growth in NBV for 2025 [2] Property Insurance - Property insurance premiums decreased by 1.2% year-on-year, primarily due to the company's strategic reduction of high COR businesses. The COR for the first three quarters was 97.6%, reflecting improved underwriting performance [3] - The company anticipates a COR of 97.7% for 2025, with expectations of further improvements following the implementation of a new non-auto insurance policy [3] Investment Performance - The report highlights a significant increase in investment performance, with insurance service performance rising by 54% year-on-year and investment performance increasing by 84% year-on-year in Q3 [4] - The non-annualized net investment return for the first three quarters was 2.6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the total investment return was 5.2%, reflecting favorable equity investments [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to RMB 5.50, RMB 5.64, and RMB 6.20 respectively, reflecting increases of 13%, 14%, and 15% [5] - The target price remains unchanged at RMB 47 for A-shares and HKD 42 for H-shares, based on discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation methods [5]