证券研究报告 亚翔集成 (603929 CH) 集团 11 月合并收入高增 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 12 月 | 12 日│中国内地 | 建筑施工 | 目标价(人民币): | 95.40 | 2025 年 12 月 10 日，亚翔集成母公司亚翔工程在官网公布其 11 月单月合 并营业收入为 85.09 亿新台币（合人民币约 19.23 亿元），我们推测其主要 工程订单进入施工高峰期，11 月营收较去年同期大幅增加。考虑到 1-5 月 公司新签订单中约 92%来自东南亚，据集团避免同业竞争协议约定，我们 推测亚翔集成四季度工程订单结转收入亦有较好推进，维持"买入"评级。 集团 10-11 月营收同比+118%，延续 3Q25 高增趋势 12 月 10 日，亚翔工程官网公布其 25 年 11 月单月合并营业收入为 85.09 亿新台币（合人民币约 19.23 亿元），同比+169.57%，月环比+20.4%；25 年 1-11 月累计实现营业收入 672.38 亿新台 ...

2025 年 12 月 11 日│中国内地 动态点评 证券研究报告 工业/能源 11 月用电需求或延续高增速 华泰研究 基于煤耗、来水、样本企业运营数据等高频指标，我们定量估算 2025 年 11 月全国发电量同增+3.9%至 7,898 亿度（历史数据回溯前 YoY+5.4%），其 中我们预计火电、水电、风光核电发电量分别同比-2.1%、+38.3%、+12.9% 至 5,069 亿度、1,138 亿度、1,692 亿度；11 月全社会用电量或将达到 8,364 亿度，同比+6.6%。 水情转好持续+新能源出力季节性修复或导致火电挤出 11 月火电日耗同比明显走弱，沿海八省动力煤日耗平均 184 万吨，同比 -2.5%；内陆十七省动力煤日耗平均 335 万吨，同比-5.6%。一方面，11 月 来水保持高出力，长江流域蓄水创历史新高，其中三峡流域 11 月平均水位 达 174 米，为 21 年 11 月以来新高；另一方面，11 月也是传统大风季（10 月至次年 2 月），根据华风创新研究院，全国 10 米高度年平均风速较近 10 年（2015～2024 年，下同）同期平均值偏大 2.06%，较上一年同期偏大 ...

Group 1: Engineering Machinery - Domestic demand for excavators is expected to recover to around 120,000 units in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 19.6% in the first ten months of 2025 [1][15] - The export of excavators reached 93,800 units in the first ten months of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, with an expected annual growth rate of around 15% [1][29] - The recovery in domestic demand is primarily driven by small excavators, reflecting increased demand for machinery in rural and small-scale water conservancy projects [15][20] Group 2: Shipbuilding and Offshore Engineering - The global shipbuilding industry saw a decline in new orders, with a total of 9,483.31 million deadweight tons in the first ten months of 2025, down 44.67% year-on-year [2] - The shipbuilding price index has shown a general decline, but there is a recovery in orders for bulk carriers and oil tankers in October 2025 [2] - The upcoming replacement cycle in shipbuilding, combined with tightening global environmental policies, is expected to drive a new round of demand growth [2] Group 3: Cyclical Industries - The cyclical sector is showing signs of recovery in 2025, supported by low baselines and the expansion into new industries [3] - The industrial control market is rebounding, with a notable increase in the OEM market, while project-based markets are showing weaker performance [3] - The industrial robot market is expected to grow by over 10% year-on-year in 2025, indicating a sustained recovery [3] Group 4: AI and Robotics - The AI sector is driving significant changes in various industries, with a focus on humanoid robots, data center equipment, and vertical applications [4] - The demand for data center backup power sources is increasing due to global capacity shortages, with domestic alternatives expected to accelerate [4] - The introduction of humanoid robots is becoming a reality, with significant production plans announced by companies like Tesla for 2026 [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the engineering machinery sector, particularly companies like SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong, which are expected to benefit from domestic and international demand [5][9] - In the shipbuilding and offshore engineering sector, China International Marine Containers (CIMC) is highlighted as a potential beneficiary of the recovery [5][9] - The AI and robotics sector presents investment opportunities in companies like Weichuang Electric and Jack Technology, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing industrial transformation [5][9]

证券研究报告 宏观视角 12 月 FOMC：如期降息并启动扩表 华泰研究 2025 年 12 月 11 日│中国内地 易峘 研究员 SAC No. S0570520100005 SFC No. AMH263 evayi@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 胡李鹏，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570525010001 SFC No. BWA860 hulipeng@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 赵文瑄* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124030017 zhaowenxuan@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 概览：北京时间 12 月 11 日（周四）凌晨联储公布 12 月会议决定，如期降息 25bp 并启动准备金管理购买（RMPs）， 点阵图维持 2026-27 年各降息一次指引；鲍威尔表态偏鸽。考虑到就业市场将逐步改善，预计联储未来或暂停降息。 联储 12 月会议如期降息 25bp，并在 12 月启动准备金管理购买（RMPs）。联储 12 月会议如期降息 25bp，基准利率 降至 3.5%-3.75%，三名委员反对此次决议，Mira ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 23.52 RMB, corresponding to a 24x PE for 2026 [8]. Core Insights - The company is a pioneer in the low-temperature dairy sector with a nationwide layout, focusing on product innovation, channel expansion, milk source distribution, cold chain construction, and regional brand strength. The report is optimistic about the company's continuous focus on low-temperature dairy products and its proactive approach to developing new products that align with market tastes, penetrating lower-tier markets, and embracing emerging channels like Sam's Club [1][17]. Industry Overview - The low-temperature milk industry in China is accelerating its penetration, with a market size projected to reach 41.8 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 1.4% from 2022 to 2024. The penetration rate of low-temperature milk in the liquid milk sector is expected to rise to 12.1% [2][18]. - The competitive landscape is relatively fragmented, with major players like Yili and Mengniu holding a combined market share of 28% and 36% in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, respectively, which is lower than their shares in the ambient milk sector [2][18]. Company Strategy - The company has upgraded its "Three Fresh" strategy, focusing on the dual strengths of fresh milk and yogurt, aiming to develop billion-level products. The DTC model is expected to contribute significantly to growth, with a target of over 30% revenue share from DTC channels by 2027 [3][20]. - The company plans to enhance its product portfolio by leveraging its proprietary strain library and expanding into new product categories like low-temperature yogurt drinks, while also exploring international markets in Southeast Asia [4][21]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% in scale and aims to double its net profit margin to over 7.8% by 2027. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 723.97 million RMB, 841.28 million RMB, and 953.46 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.84 RMB, 0.98 RMB, and 1.11 RMB [6][12][21].

证券研究报告 基础材料 锂：近端强现实，远期依旧看好上涨 锂行业：近端强现实，远期需求分歧依旧较大 今年 9 月以来，碳酸锂价格持续走强，期货主力合约价格一度突破 10 万元 /吨，价格上涨主要可归因为供给端江西枧下窝矿山在 8 月停产以及需求端 下游电池需求呈现明显淡季不淡，供给扰动与需求高增速共振下，国内库存 持续去化。与此同时，国内储能招标维持高增速，导致市场对于 26 年全球 储能出货预期大幅抬升。强现实+强需求预期推升碳酸锂价格在三季度以来 持续上涨。站在当前节点展望后市，市场对具体 26/27 年需求增速预期尤其 储能的增速上呈明显分歧，该分歧直接导致市场对于碳酸锂未来的长期供需 测算结果方差较大。本文将对不同终端增速预期下的碳酸锂需求以及不同价 格下的供给进行测算，以分析未来锂价的合理中枢。 供给：预计锂资源 26 年/27 年产量增速为 32.3%/17.1% 根据我们测算，2026 年全球锂资源供应增量将主要来自国内盐湖新项目投 产、非洲矿与澳矿的放量，以及南美盐湖产能的爬产。中性预期下，我们预 测 2025 年至 2027 年全球锂资源供给量预计分别为 163.4 万吨、216.2 万 吨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the construction and building materials sectors [10]. Core Viewpoints - The construction and building materials sector is expected to experience a spring rally in 2026, driven by improvements in construction PMI, order volume, and favorable market conditions such as a later Spring Festival and strong domestic excavator sales [13][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend and price-increasing stocks, recommending companies with stable performance and high dividend yields, as well as traditional building materials with price increase potential [13][19]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: sustainable growth in renovation, thorough industry clearing in construction materials, and opportunities in high-quality leading companies in various segments [14][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights a potential spring rally for the building materials sector, supported by fiscal improvements and strong domestic machinery sales [19]. - Historical data shows that the building materials index has a high probability of outperforming the market in Q1, with a 57% chance of rising based on past performance [15]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends several companies, including China Chemical, China National Materials, and Xinyi Glass, with target prices and buy ratings [10][38]. - Specific recommendations include: - China Chemical (601117 CH) - Target Price: 12.05 - China National Materials (600970 CH) - Target Price: 14.23 - Xinyi Glass (868 HK) - Target Price: 9.54 - Others include China United Plastic, Jinggong Steel Structure, and Dongfang Yuhong [10][38]. Market Dynamics - Recent data indicates a 1.2% week-on-week increase in national cement prices, while the average price of float glass has risen by 2.3% [2][28]. - The report notes that the domestic float glass market is stabilizing, with some regions experiencing price increases due to supply constraints [28][30]. - The electronic fabric market is also showing signs of price increases, driven by demand from PCB clients [25][33]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued demand in the cleanroom engineering and special electronic fabric sectors, with a focus on companies that can adapt to new production capabilities and traditional industry upgrades [14][19]. - The construction sector is expected to benefit from urban renewal initiatives and the ongoing recovery of the real estate market, with a focus on renovation and construction materials [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the telecommunications sector and its sub-sectors, including telecommunications equipment manufacturing [9]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by key events such as the successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket and the upcoming launch of the Long March 12 rocket, which aims to achieve reusability [2][3]. - The Shanghai Songjiang Satellite Internet Industry Conference highlighted the development opportunities in satellite internet, with partnerships being formed to enhance aviation satellite internet applications [16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of ground terminals and applications as critical components of the commercial aerospace industry's business ecosystem, suggesting a focus on undervalued segments with broad potential [18]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The telecommunications index rose by 3.69% last week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.37%, and the Shenzhen Component Index, which rose by 1.26% [2][12]. Key Events - Significant events in the commercial aerospace sector include: 1. The successful first flight of the Zhuque-3 rocket, achieving orbit but failing to recover the first stage [3][13]. 2. The upcoming first flight of the Long March 12 rocket, which will attempt reusability [3][13]. 3. The Shanghai Songjiang Satellite Internet Industry Conference, where major players discussed advancements in satellite technology [16]. 4. The initiation of a tender for phased array terminals by China StarNet, indicating a focus on ground terminal development [18]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies within the telecommunications sector, including: - ZTE Corporation (Buy, target price: 64.34 CNY) [38]. - Ruijie Networks (Buy, target price: 102.51 CNY) [38]. - China Telecom (Buy, target price: 9.11 CNY) [38]. - NewEase (Buy, target price: 476.71 CNY) [38]. - China Mobile (Buy, target price: 126.20 CNY) [38]. - Zhongji Xuchuang (Buy, target price: 626.68 CNY) [38]. - Haige Communications (Buy, target price: 13.70 CNY) [38]. - Shanghai Hanyun (Buy, target price: 28.28 CNY) [38]. - China Unicom (Hold, target price: 7.56 CNY) [38]. Performance Highlights - The report notes that the top-performing stocks in the past week included: - Aerospace Development (up 52.26%) - Tianfu Communication (up 25.79%) - Shanghai Hanyun (up 24.98%) [10]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the commercial aerospace sector is poised for further growth, particularly in ground terminal applications and satellite manufacturing, as the industry approaches critical technological milestones [2][3][18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Hold" with a target price of RMB 28.30 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company, Diya Co., is a leading brand in China's diamond ring industry, actively expanding its gold product line and optimizing its channel layout, showing gradual improvement in performance [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 1.156 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 103 million, a significant increase of 408.0% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company continues to optimize inefficient stores and has introduced new products, which have driven a rapid increase in same-store sales [1][3]. Revenue and Profitability - Online self-operated revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached RMB 230 million, a year-on-year increase of 45.8%, while offline direct sales revenue was RMB 820 million, a decrease of 5.0% due to net store closures [2]. - The overall gross margin for the company in the first three quarters was 66.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, with core business gross margin at 68.0%, up 2.3 percentage points [2]. Store Optimization and Efficiency - The company closed 32 stores during the first three quarters of 2025, with a net store closure rate slowing down compared to the previous year [3]. - The average revenue per store increased to RMB 2.65 million, a year-on-year growth of 31%, while sales and management expense ratios improved significantly [3]. Product Innovation and Market Expansion - The company focuses on two emotional expression scenarios: "Proposal" and "Wedding," with new product launches in the gold jewelry category [4]. - Diya Co. is actively expanding into overseas markets, achieving significant exposure on platforms like TikTok, with a total exposure of 689 million times by the first half of 2025 [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 52% and 44% to RMB 136 million and RMB 203 million, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at RMB 251 million [5][12]. - The company is currently in a brand transformation phase, leading to significant earnings volatility, and a price-to-book (PB) valuation method is now applied, with a target price set at RMB 28.30 [5].

证券研究报告 近年来欧洲 MDI 受能源成本高企以及装置年限较久等影响，相关龙头企业 经营压力与日俱增，并于近期通过装置急停、产品涨价等形式集中体现；而 公司相关产品则凭借成本优势与规模优势仍能保持稳健的经营与较好的盈 利空间，全球产业竞争力转移愈发明显。考虑相关产品的近期上涨，我们上 调 25 年盈利预期。未来伴随我国经济的逐步复苏以及海外需求的持续拉动， MDI 景气有望得到修复，万华化学凭借全球规模与成本优势有望充分享受行 业景气弹性，维持"买入"评级。 欧洲 MDI 急停与涨价互现，压力环境下公司韧性凸显 25 年 11 月下旬，亨斯迈荷兰 28 万吨 MDI 装置因故障紧急停车检修；11-12 月以来全球 MDI 巨头涨价函密集发布，亨斯迈、陶氏、巴斯夫等产品价格涨 幅 200 美元-350 欧元不等。受海外涨价以及国内检修预期拉动，据百川盈孚， 截至 12 月 5 日，我国纯 MDI 价格为 19500 元/吨，较 9 月底上涨 11%。近 年来海外装置受能源成本高企以及装置年限较久等因素影响，不可抗力频发， 成本压力逐步体现；而公司装置则凭借良好的成本优势与规模优势仍具备较 好的经济性。我们认为 ...