Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $159.87 per ADS [8][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in Q1 2025 performance, with revenue of HKD 4.7 billion, up 81% year-over-year, and net profit of HKD 2.1 billion, up 107% year-over-year, driven by accelerated overseas customer acquisition and increased trading volumes in the Hong Kong and US stock markets [1][5]. - The company has achieved one-third of its annual customer acquisition target in Q1 2025, adding 260,000 new funded accounts, a 48% increase year-over-year [2]. - The trading activity in the Hong Kong and US markets remains robust, with total trading volume reaching HKD 3.22 trillion, a 140% increase year-over-year [3]. - Continuous innovation in products and services, including AI-driven investment assistants and new trading options, is strengthening the company's brand and product capabilities [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025-2027, the company expects net profits of HKD 7.5 billion, HKD 8.4 billion, and HKD 9.2 billion respectively, reflecting an upward revision of 20%-26% from previous estimates [5][7]. - The estimated EPS for 2025 is HKD 6.52, with a projected PE ratio of 24x [5][7]. Customer Acquisition - The company has seen a strong influx of new customers, particularly from Hong Kong, Japan, the US, and Malaysia, with significant participation in recent IPOs [2]. Trading Activity - The trading environment is favorable, with a notable increase in trading volumes and customer asset turnover rates, indicating high market engagement [3]. Innovation and Product Development - The company is actively enhancing its service offerings, including the introduction of new trading products and platforms, which are crucial for attracting overseas customers [4].

Legal Implications - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariffs under the IEEPA exceeded presidential authority, marking a significant limitation on his power to impose tariffs[1] - The ruling requires the Trump administration to terminate related tariffs by June 7, 2025, unless an appeal is granted[2] Tariff Adjustments - The probability of the U.S. adjusting tariffs on Mexico and Canada has increased, with a potential final tariff level closer to the lower end of 15%[10] - The U.S. may still impose tariffs on specific countries and industries, with the possibility of using other legal provisions to maintain a 10% global tariff temporarily[3] Revenue Projections - If the U.S. imposes a 10% tariff on its top 10-15 trade surplus countries, it could generate approximately $240-290 billion in annual tariff revenue[4] - The average U.S. tariff rate is expected to rise by about 4.5-5.4 percentage points due to strategic tariffs on key industries[5] Strategic Considerations - The U.S. is likely to maintain high tariffs on China, with cumulative tariffs expected to reach 30-40%, despite potential adjustments in structure[6] - The ongoing legal and political battles over tariffs indicate a shift of power back to Congress, although there remains a consensus within the current administration for certain tariff levels[7] Risks and Challenges - There is a risk of unexpected fluctuations in U.S. tariff policies, particularly in negotiations with China[8] - The interplay between tariff policies and capital outflows from the U.S. may create significant economic feedback loops, impacting future tariff decisions[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 10.12 HKD [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a significant quarter-on-quarter improvement in 1Q25, with revenue of 7.015 billion RMB (-21.9% year-on-year, +11% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of 1.48 billion RMB (-8.4% year-on-year, +169% quarter-on-quarter) [1]. - Key drivers for the positive performance include the stabilization of core business and the recognition of upfront payments from Lp(a) and MAT2A small molecule BD transactions [2]. - The company is expected to see a gradual improvement in revenue and profit throughout the year, driven by the inventory cycle and new product launches [2]. - The EGFR ADC clinical trials are progressing rapidly, with promising data expected to enhance the company's international potential [3]. - The company is focusing on innovative pipelines, including HER2-targeted therapies and GLP-1 analogs, with expected market entries in the coming years [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts EPS of 0.49, 0.50, and 0.57 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price based on a 19x PE ratio for 2025 [5]. - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 31.101 billion RMB, with a conservative estimate of approximately 4 billion RMB in net profit for the year [2][19]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in revenue and profit margins, with a projected net profit margin of 18.31% for 2025 [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported Q1 revenue of 25.9 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 650 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 82%, aligning with expectations [1] - The company is expected to continue improving quality and efficiency, with a projected Q2 delivery of 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles and revenue of 32.5 to 33.8 billion RMB [2] - The launch of new electric models, particularly the i8, is anticipated to enhance sales performance, with expectations of over 5,000 units in steady monthly sales [3] - The introduction of the Thor-U chip in new models is expected to enhance computing power and reduce costs in autonomous driving hardware [4] - The company forecasts GAAP net profits of 10.3 billion, 15.8 billion, and 17.8 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with a target price adjustment to 140.34 HKD based on a 21x PE for 2025 [5][13] Financial Summary - The company expects revenues of 123.9 billion RMB in 2023, growing to 250.2 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.97% [7] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover from 8.0 billion RMB in 2024 to 17.8 billion RMB in 2027, indicating a significant growth trajectory [7] - The report highlights a gross margin of 20.5% for Q1 2025, with an automotive gross margin of 19.8%, reflecting improved cost control [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the internet sector [7] Core Insights - The 618 e-commerce promotion in 2025 is characterized by increased merchant support and an extension of competitive dimensions, with platforms focusing on user engagement and reducing merchant burdens while optimizing subsidy rules [1] - The report highlights a shift from aggressive price competition to a multi-dimensional approach that emphasizes product quality and user experience [3][4] - AI tools are becoming increasingly integrated into merchant operations, enhancing efficiency and effectiveness in marketing and sales [5][25] Summary by Sections Trend 1: Simplification of Rules and Efficiency Improvement - The 618 promotion period has been extended, but many platforms have simplified their promotional rules to reduce user behavior that leads to high return rates, thus enhancing user experience [2][11] Trend 2: Intense C-end Competition - Competition for consumer attention remains fierce, but platforms are moving away from heavy C-end subsidies to strategies that leverage instant retail and multi-channel marketing [3] Trend 3: National Subsidy Actions - The national subsidy program has significantly boosted consumption, with over 1.2 billion people benefiting from subsidies, leading to increased sales in categories like 3C digital products [4][31] Trend 4: Maturity of AI Tools - AI capabilities are increasingly being utilized in daily merchant operations, with platforms like Alibaba enhancing their advertising services through AI-driven solutions [5][26] Merchant Support Initiatives - Platforms are implementing measures to reduce the burden on small and medium-sized merchants, including lowering penalties for false shipping claims and simplifying participation in promotional activities [20][21]

Key Insights - The report highlights a significant court ruling that challenges Trump's authority to impose tariffs, indicating a potential shift in U.S. trade policy and a possible increase in average tariffs by 15-20% [2][3] - The report discusses the implications of the ruling on U.S.-China trade relations, suggesting that while some tariffs may be lifted, strategic tariffs on competitive industries may remain unchanged [2][3] - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of A-share companies seeking secondary listings in Hong Kong, with notable examples like Ningde Times raising 41 billion HKD, reflecting strong international investor interest [4] - The report presents a multi-dimensional timing framework for A-shares, indicating a significant improvement in performance metrics, with a Sharpe ratio of approximately 1 and an annualized return of about 22% [5] - The report discusses the advancements in technology analysis through the application of multi-modal models, enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of technical analysis in investment research [6] - The report notes the strong performance of Futu Holdings in Q1 2025, with revenues of 4.7 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 81%, driven by accelerated customer acquisition and increased trading volumes [8] - The report highlights the positive outlook for Li Auto with the upcoming launch of the i8 model, projecting a potential boost in sales and market performance [9] - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical company, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, showed a notable quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q1 2025, with revenues of 7.015 billion CNY, reflecting a 11% increase from the previous quarter [10] - The report discusses NVIDIA's strong Q1 FY26 performance, with revenues exceeding expectations, particularly in the gaming segment, which saw a year-on-year increase of 42% [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $159.87 per ADS [8][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in Q1 2025 performance, with revenue of HKD 4.7 billion, up 81% year-over-year, and net profit of HKD 2.1 billion, up 107% year-over-year, driven by accelerated overseas customer acquisition and increased trading volumes in the Hong Kong and US stock markets [1][5]. - The company has achieved one-third of its annual customer acquisition target in Q1 2025, adding 260,000 new funded accounts, a 48% increase year-over-year [2]. - The trading activity in the Hong Kong and US markets remains robust, with total trading volume reaching HKD 3.22 trillion, a 140% increase year-over-year [3]. - Continuous innovation in products and services, including AI-driven investment assistants and new trading options, is strengthening the company's brand and product capabilities [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, the company expects to achieve net profits of HKD 7.45 billion, with an EPS of HKD 6.52, reflecting a 20% to 26% upward revision in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5][7]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is HKD 18.02 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 32.62% [7]. Customer Acquisition - The company has successfully expanded its customer base, with Hong Kong remaining the primary source of new customers, supported by a rebound in the stock market and IPO activities [2]. Trading Activity - The trading environment is favorable, with a significant increase in trading volumes and customer asset turnover rates, indicating strong market engagement [3]. Innovation and Product Development - The company is focused on enhancing its service offerings, including the introduction of new trading products in various markets, which is crucial for attracting overseas customers [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 10.12 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a significant quarter-on-quarter improvement in 1Q25, with revenue of RMB 7.015 billion (-21.9% year-on-year, +11% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of RMB 1.48 billion (-8.4% year-on-year, +169% quarter-on-quarter) [1]. - The improvement is attributed to stable core business performance and the recognition of upfront payments from Lp(a) and MAT2A small molecule BD transactions [2]. - The company is expected to see quarterly revenue and profit growth throughout the year, with a conservative estimate of approximately RMB 4 billion in annual core profits [2]. - The EGFR ADC clinical trials are progressing rapidly both domestically and internationally, indicating strong potential for overseas expansion [3]. - The company has a robust pipeline with significant BD progress and innovative platforms, enhancing its potential for international collaboration [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s EPS is projected to be RMB 0.49, 0.50, and 0.57 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target PE of 19 times for 2025 [5]. - The estimated revenue for 2025 is RMB 31.101 billion, with a net profit of RMB 5.694 billion [19]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in sales expense ratio from 33% in 1Q24 to 24% in 1Q25, indicating improved cost management [2]. Key Metrics - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 87.769 billion, with a closing price of HKD 7.62 as of May 29 [9]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 7.21%, 8.35%, and 8.10% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [20].

证券研究报告 小米集团-W (1810 HK) 港股通 IoT/汽车业务毛利率超预期 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 29 日│中国香港 | 消费电子 | 小米 1Q25 收入同比增长 47%至 1113 亿元，创历史新高，调整后营业利润 （毛利-三项费用）同比增长 114%至 99.6 亿元。1Q25 IoT 和汽车业务毛利 率表现出色，手机 ASP 创历史新高，高端化持续推进。5/22，公司正式发布 玄戒 O1/T1 芯片，我们认为自研芯片是品牌厂商构建生态的重要一步，看好 小米高端手机市场份额持续扩大。基于 SOTP 估值法，维持公司目标价 71.2 港币，包含手机 xAIoT（44.9 港币），汽车（26.3 港币）。维持"买入"。 亮点#1：IoT 毛利率超预期，收入创历史新高 1Q25，IoT 与生活消费品业务收入和毛利率再创历史新高，收入同比+58.7% 达到 323 亿元，毛利率达到 25.2%（YoY: +5.4pct；QoQ: +4.7pct）。原因或 为：1）大家电收入规模迅速扩大，一季度收入同 ...

证券研究报告 策略 港股重估下 A 股定价如何演绎? 华泰研究 2025年5月29日|中国内地 专题研究 来自宁德时代港股上市的思考 -- 估值体系的国际化接轨 去年以来,美的集团、宁德时代为代表的一批A股优质标的赴港二次上市, 吸引了全球投资者的关注。5月20日,宁德时代港股上市,募资总额达410 亿港元,其中基石投资者认购占比近 50%,截至最新交易日仍较 A 股存在 大幅溢价,反映了国际资本对国内稀缺性资产的高度认可。我们认为,当前 A 股核心资产在全球 PB-ROE 视角下仍低估,且外资配置力度处于相对低 位,随着全球资金在美元和非美资产间 "再平衡",外资在港股对核心资产 进行的系统性重估,或对Ａ股形成正向传导机制,带动核心资产估值修复。 近期龙头企业赴港二次上市提振 A 股表现 2024年以来,港股IPO市场呈现回暖态势,且由于部分大体量内地龙头赴 港二次上市,慕资规模甚至超过Ａ股市场。其中,美的集团/赤峰黄金/宁德 时代/恒瑞医药等行业龙头基石投资者认购占比较高,港股二次上市后表现 较强,甚至出现 AH 溢价的倒挂,并通过流动性外溢等传导至对应 A 股和相 关板块的上涨。复盘来看,通常港股二次上 ...