证券研究报告 固收 流动性跟踪周报（2025.9.8-9.12） 2025 年 9 月 15 日│中国内地 流动性周报 资金面先紧后松，资金利率上行 上周公开市场到期 10684 亿元，均为逆回购到期，公开市场投放 12645 亿元， 均为逆回购投放，合计净投放 1961 亿元。此外，央行上周五宣布本周将投放 6M 买断式逆回购 6000 亿元，本月 6M 买断式逆回购到期 3000 亿元。上周 资金面先紧后松，DR007 均值为 1.47%，较前一周上行 3BP，R007 均值为 1.48%，较前一周上行 2BP，DR001 和 R001 均值分别为 1.39%和 1.43%。 交易所回购利率上行，GC007 均值为 1.47%，较前一周上行 2BP。截至上周 最后一个交易日，逆回购未到期余额为 12645 亿元，较前一周上行。 存单利率和 IRS 收益率上行 上周存单合计到期 12521.7 亿元，发行 7841.6 亿元，净融资规模-4680.1 亿元。截至上周最后一个交易日，存单到期收益率（1 年期 AAA）为 1.67%， 较前一周上行。本周存单单周到期规模在 8500.5 亿元左右，到期压力较前 ...

今日早参 2025 年 9 月 15 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：9 月 FOMC 预览：联储重启降息，关注点阵图 概览：北京时间 9 月 18 日（周四）凌晨美联储将公布 9 月议息会议决定，预 计联储大概率降息 25bp，并对点阵图进行调整。考虑到就业市场仍只是放缓 而不是失速，近期经济动能有所改善，预计联储 2025 年累计降息 2 次，但 如果就业市场放缓超预期，则年内降息 3 次的概率将上升。 风险提示：美国就业市场走弱速度超预期，关税对通胀影响持续性超预期 研报发布日期：2025-09-14 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 宏观：美通胀表现温和，短期降息预期趋于饱满 美国 8 月 CPI 整体温和，显示关税的传导仍然可控；首申人数虽然超预期上 行，但主要来自德州扰动，剔除后符合历史季节性。此外，特朗普再度以关 税施压俄乌停火，政策不确定性或再度上行。全周来看，联储降息预期继续 升温，长端美债收益率下行，美元小幅走弱，美股上涨，大宗商品也普 ...

证券研究报告 固收 债市机构生态之变 2025 年 9 月 14 日│中国内地 利率周报 报告核心观点 债券投资者间的竞合关系较股复杂，交易中有竞争，业务上多合作，债基是 同业合作的关键一环。公募基金销售新规、基金免税不确定性、银行与保险 新规等可能重塑债市机构生态。在此过程中，30 年国债、二永债等需求可 能弱化，市场"效率损失"可能导致利率中枢小幅上行。债市短期进入目标 位，赔率改善，融资需求偏弱，央行呵护资金面且购债重启预期升温，叠加 长假效应，债市或阶段性"歇歇脚"。品种上，此前提示暂避 30 年国债、 二永债，国债与政金债利差有所扩大。策略上，继续蛰伏中短端并等待超调， 配置盘尝试布局，交易盘浅尝辄止，长端利率与转债两头配策略需要了结。 资管新规前：同业合作与监管约束 第一阶段为 2008-2013 年，政策鼓励与通道创新，风险逐步积累。2008 年 金融危机后，四万亿投资+宽货币、宽信用政策激活了房地产、城投等融资 需求。2010-2012 年，监管收紧信贷额度，但基建、地产需要持续资金，"表 内受限、表外补位"催生"银信合作"、"银证信合作"等，同时也受到诸 多监管约束。第二阶段为 2014-2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies in the energy storage sector, specifically recommending Yangguang Electric (阳光电源), Shangneng Electric (上能电气), Shenghong Co., Ltd. (盛弘股份), and CATL (宁德时代) [6][9][10]. Core Insights - The introduction of the "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025-2027)" by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration is expected to clarify the profit model for independent energy storage, promoting long-term healthy development in the domestic energy storage industry [1][2]. - The action plan sets a target of over 180 GW of new energy storage capacity by 2027, which is projected to drive direct investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [2]. - The report highlights that the demand for energy storage remains strong, and the pricing in the domestic supply chain is stabilizing, leading to an optimistic outlook for the energy storage industry [5]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - The action plan encourages energy storage to participate in the electricity market, aiming for a cumulative installed capacity of 73.8 GW by 2024, with an average annual requirement of 35.4 GW from 2025 to 2027 to meet the target [2][3]. - Various provinces are implementing policies to enhance the economic viability of independent energy storage, such as capacity compensation mechanisms [3][4]. Section 2: Pricing and Competition - The report notes that the price competition in the domestic supply chain is nearing its end, with prices for PCS increasing from 0.065 yuan/W in June to 0.07 yuan/W in September, and energy storage cells rising from 0.29 yuan/Wh to 0.3 yuan/Wh [4][5]. - The market is expected to undergo a process of elimination, favoring leading companies while smaller firms may gradually exit the market [4]. Section 3: Company Recommendations - Yangguang Electric (阳光电源) is projected to achieve a net profit of 145.64 billion yuan in 2025, with a target price of 147.42 yuan [11]. - Shangneng Electric (上能电气) is expected to see a net profit of 6.10 billion yuan in 2025, with a target price of 39.93 yuan [11]. - Shenghong Co., Ltd. (盛弘股份) anticipates a net profit of 5.38 billion yuan in 2025, with a target price of 51.60 yuan [11]. - CATL (宁德时代) is forecasted to achieve a net profit of 666 billion yuan in 2025, with a target price of 342.22 yuan [11].

Inflation Overview - August CPI in the U.S. rose to 0.38%, exceeding the expected 0.3%[1] - Core CPI remained stable at 0.35%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1%[1] - Food and energy prices contributed significantly to the CPI increase, with energy prices rebounding to 0.69% from -1.07% in July[6] Tariff Impact - The transmission of tariffs to prices remains manageable, with core goods inflation driven mainly by new and used car prices[2] - Tariff-sensitive categories showed moderate growth, indicating limited inflationary pressure from tariffs[2] - The effective tariff rate increase was less than anticipated, with companies absorbing part of the tariff costs[2] Employment Market Signals - Initial jobless claims rose unexpectedly, signaling a slowdown in the labor market[1] - Excluding Texas, initial claims align with historical seasonal patterns, suggesting a gradual weakening rather than a sharp decline[2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September are now fully priced in, with a 13% chance for a 50 basis point cut[1] Market Reactions - U.S. Treasury yields fell by 5 basis points, with 2-year and 10-year yields at 3.50% and 4.00%, respectively[1] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.4% to 97.6, while U.S. stock markets saw an uptick[1] Risk Factors - Potential risks include higher-than-expected tariff transmission to inflation and a faster-than-expected decline in the U.S. labor market[3]

Macro Insights - The US August CPI exceeded expectations, indicating manageable tariff transmission effects, with a month-on-month increase of 0.18 percentage points to 0.38%, driven mainly by food and energy prices [2] - Core CPI remained stable, with a month-on-month increase of 0.35% and a year-on-year rise of 0.1 percentage points to 3.1%, aligning with expectations [2] - The job market shows signs of slowing, leading to increased market expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 5 basis point rise in rate cut expectations to 73 basis points [2] Technology Sector - Apple held its fall product launch event, introducing the iPhone 17 series, AirPods Pro 3, and three new Apple Watch models, with the iPhone Air being the highlight at a thickness of only 5.6 mm [3] - The iPhone 17 series features a standard price of $799, unchanged from last year, but with storage increased from 128GB to 256GB, effectively lowering the price [3] - The report anticipates that Apple will maintain a critical role in the AI industry value chain, with related companies such as Luxshare, Lens Technology, and GoerTek benefiting [3] Machinery Industry - The report highlights the increasing automation in coal mining, driven by policy support, technological advancements, and capital investment, predicting that by 2026, the proportion of intelligent coal mines will reach 30% [6] - The penetration rate of unmanned mining trucks is expected to exceed 30%, with significant market potential projected at nearly $60 billion globally by 2030 [6] - Recommended companies in this sector include LiuGong, XCMG, SANY International, and Zoomlion, among others [6] Key Company Insights - Zhihu Group reported Q2 2025 revenue of 2.62 billion yuan, slightly above expectations, with a year-on-year decline of 2.6% [7] - The company is cautiously optimistic about H2 guidance, expecting overseas business to gradually offset domestic declines, with a projected revenue turning point in 2026 [7] - The current market valuation is below net cash, indicating a high value proposition, maintaining a "Buy" rating [7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for Oracle, highlighting strong growth in RPO and capital expenditures, suggesting a bullish sentiment towards the company's future performance [4][5][35]. Core Insights - Oracle's remaining performance obligations (RPO) reached $455 billion, a year-over-year increase of 359%, significantly exceeding expectations [5][22][35]. - The company is experiencing robust demand for its cloud infrastructure, driven by contracts with major clients such as OpenAI, xAI, and Meta, which are expected to further enhance RPO [15][18][35]. - Capital expenditures for FY26 are projected to exceed $35 billion, up from previous guidance of $25 billion, primarily focused on GPU and networking equipment [5][35]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 FY26 was $14.9 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, but slightly below expectations [10][11]. - Subscription and license revenue grew by 13% year-over-year, also falling short of forecasts [12][14]. - Cloud services revenue increased by 28%, primarily driven by IaaS growth of 55% [15][14]. RPO and Capital Expenditures - RPO for FY26 Q1 was reported at $455 billion, reflecting a 359% increase year-over-year and a significant rise from the previous quarter [5][22]. - Capital expenditures for FY26 Q1 were $8.5 billion, a 269% increase year-over-year, with expectations for the full year to reach $35 billion [35][33]. AI and Cloud Business - Oracle's AI business is a key growth driver, with significant contracts signed with top AI clients, contributing to the substantial increase in RPO [8][15]. - The company is expanding its cloud database services, with a target of 71 regions, enhancing its competitive position in the cloud market [5][8]. Profitability and Margins - Operating profit margins were reported at 29%, with expectations for gradual improvement in profitability as the company scales its operations [23][25]. - Gross margins decreased by 3.37 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to increased capital expenditures and the expansion phase of cloud services [26][28]. Regional Performance - Revenue from the Americas exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand for cloud services [16][18]. - The majority of AI-related contracts are concentrated in the U.S., indicating a strategic focus on domestic clients [18][22].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, lower than the expected decline of 0.2%, and the PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly better than the previous month's decline of 3.6% [3][4] - The report highlights that the current market has fully priced in a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with inflation data from August potentially influencing the decision for a 50 basis points cut [4][5] Group 2: Technology Sector Developments - Apple's recent product launch introduced the iPhone 17 series, including the thinnest iPhone Air model at 5.6 mm, featuring a self-developed baseband and Wi-Fi chip, and a price starting at $799, unchanged from the previous year [5][6] - The report notes that the overall hardware upgrades met expectations, but there was limited discussion on AI functionalities, indicating a potential area for future development [5] Group 3: AI and Industry Trends - The report discusses the contrasting views on AI's impact on society, with optimistic perspectives emphasizing its empowering potential, while cautious viewpoints highlight systemic risks [7][8] - It suggests that companies adopting a transparent and adaptable approach to AI integration will likely succeed in navigating challenges and achieving sustainable growth [7] Group 4: Coal Mining and Automation - The report indicates that the automation rate in coal mining is expected to rise significantly, with projections suggesting that by 2026, 30% of coal mines will be automated, driven by policy support and technological advancements [10][11] - Companies such as Tianma Zhikong and XCMG are highlighted as key players in this transition towards intelligent mining solutions [10] Group 5: Real Estate Market Analysis - The U.S. housing market in the first half of 2025 faced challenges due to high prices and interest rates, leading to a decline in affordability and a decrease in new and existing home sales [13][14] - The report anticipates that the construction activity may become more conservative due to high material costs and increasing inventory pressures, with new home starts expected to continue declining [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumption REITs sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this area [7]. Core Insights - The consumption REITs have shown resilient operations in 2025, outperforming the broader market, with stable revenue and distribution targets being met as expected [1][3]. - The report highlights that consumption REITs are likely to benefit first from improvements in the macroeconomic environment, particularly in the context of property REITs [1]. - The overall retail market in China has experienced steady recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% in the first half of 2025, driven by both policy support and internal recovery [2][11]. - The supply of commercial real estate is under pressure but has shown signs of easing, with a 29% year-on-year decrease in the number of new openings for centralized commercial spaces [2][19]. - The average occupancy rate for consumption REITs remains high, exceeding 95%, with some leading projects achieving over 98% [3][25]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The retail market has seen a steady recovery, with a 5.0% year-on-year increase in social retail sales in H1 2025, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous year [2][11]. - The gap between offline and online retail growth rates is narrowing, indicating a reduced diversion of customers from physical stores to online platforms [2][11]. Operational Performance - Consumption REITs have demonstrated operational resilience, with an average revenue growth of 0.4% year-on-year in H1 2025 [3][27]. - The average occupancy rate for consumption REITs is reported at 97.13%, with most projects maintaining high occupancy levels [60][66]. - The EBITDA for consumption REITs has seen a slight year-on-year decline, but most are expected to meet their 2025 targets [74][81]. Market Performance - The average distributable amount for consumption REITs has increased by 3.5% year-on-year, indicating strong dividend intentions [4]. - Consumption REITs have significantly outperformed the REITs index this year, with dividend yields ranging from 3.5% to 6.3% [4][5]. Outlook - The consumption REITs sector is expected to continue expanding, with new projects entering the market and existing REITs planning to inject additional assets [5]. - The report notes a positive sentiment in the secondary market, with a valuation reassessment benefiting the primary market as well [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [6]. Core Insights - The U.S. housing market in H1 2025 is under significant pressure from high prices and interest rates, leading to historically low housing affordability and a decline in both new and existing home sales [1][11]. - Existing home prices have reached record highs, with the median price in June 2025 at $433,000, marking a 1.4% year-on-year increase [20]. - The overall inventory of homes has increased slightly, but existing home inventory remains tight, indicating ongoing supply-demand imbalances [3][48]. Summary by Sections Transactions & Prices - In the first half of 2025, new home sales totaled 330,000 units, down 3.7% year-on-year, while existing home sales were 2.04 million units, a slight decrease of 0.2% [2][11]. - The median price for new homes averaged $417,000, a decrease of 1.2% compared to the same period in 2024, while existing homes saw a median price increase of 2.4% to $411,000 [2][20]. Supply - As of June 2025, new home inventory stood at 502,000 units, a 2.7% increase from December 2024, while existing home inventory rose to 1.54 million units, a 35.1% increase [3][48]. - The months of supply for existing homes is 4.7 months, indicating a continued shortage despite the marginal increase in inventory [48]. Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target rate between 4.25% and 4.50% since early 2025, with 30-year fixed mortgage rates fluctuating between 6.65% and 6.96% [4][53]. - As of August 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slightly decreased to 6.59%, still within the 80.4% percentile historically [4][53]. H2 2025 Outlook - The report anticipates that high construction material costs and increased inventory pressures will lead to a conservative approach from builders, resulting in a continued decline in new home starts [60]. - The "rate lock effect" is expected to persist, limiting existing homeowners' willingness to sell, thereby exacerbating the existing home inventory shortage [1][60].