证券研究报告 航天军工 新装备建设周期下的新结构 华泰研究 2025 年 11 月 25 日│中国内地 年度策略 复盘"十四五"：军工体量迈上新台阶 我军建设"十四五"规划，是国防和军队现代化新"三步走"战略的起步规 划，也是实现建军一百年奋斗目标的蓝图设计。"十四五"期间，我军构建 起"4 支军种+4 支兵种"的新型军兵种结构布局，以机械化为基础、信息 化为主导、智能化为方向，武器装备建设实现跨越式发展。随着新一代主战 武器装备研发列装，军工板块上市公司营收规模迈上新台阶。2024 年，中 信国防军工指数 119 只成分股实现营收合计 4194.35 亿元，较 2020 年营收 合计 3349.01 亿元增长 25.24%，复合增速 5.79%；2025Q1-Q3，119 家军 工上市公司营收合计 2801.84 亿元，同比增长 3.23%。同时，武器装备科 研生产能力也得到提升，2025Q3 末，119 家军工上市公司固定资产合计 1671.53 亿元，较 2020 年末固定资产合计 1089.32 亿元增长 53.45%。 展望"十五五"：或将由"量"的增值转向"质"的提升 党的二十届四中全会着眼强国建 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market experienced a pullback last week, but funding pressure is expected to improve marginally due to a rebound in private equity registrations and public fund launches, with private fund registrations rising to 337, exceeding 300 for two consecutive weeks [2][3] - The peak of A-share unlock market value has passed, and the net reduction in industrial capital has shown a marginal decline, indicating a reduction in funding supply pressure [2] Group 2: Fixed Income Analysis - In the construction industry, the supply and demand remain weak, with new home transactions showing a decline while second-hand home transactions have slightly increased [2] - The industrial sector shows strong freight volume performance, but production rates are mixed, with some sectors like coking and independent refineries seeing an increase, while the chemical and automotive sectors remain weak [2] Group 3: Energy Sector Insights - In the global gas turbine market, new orders increased by 95% year-on-year to 24GW in Q3 2025, driven by various factors including energy policy shifts and AI power demand [5] - The high demand for gas turbines is expected to boost exports for domestic component manufacturers, with companies like Yingliu and Haomai Technology positioned to benefit [5] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to be more proactive, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and an increase in special bond quotas to approximately 5 trillion yuan to support debt resolution and other initiatives [6][7] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference will serve as a key observation point for policy reserves and future deployments [6] Group 5: Company-Specific Analysis - Kangnuo Ya-B (2162 HK) is highlighted for its potential in the global autoimmune pipeline, with a market cap increase of over 75% recently, and promising early clinical data for its CM512 product [9] - Black Sesame Intelligence (2533 HK) is recognized for its advancements in the robotics sector with the launch of the SesameX multi-dimensional intelligent computing platform, indicating strong growth potential [10]

证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 3Q25 全球气电回顾与展望：景气度持 续外溢，零部件与整机出海双击 华泰研究 3Q25 全球燃机订单同增 95%，单季度需求再创历史新高 根据 McCoy 统计，3Q25 全球燃气轮机新增订单同增 95%至 24GW。海外 大选后能源政策右转、中东油转气、AI 电源需求多因素推动全球燃气轮机 景气度继续上行。我们看好海外燃气轮机主机的量价齐升，继续推荐西门子 能源 ENR、哈尔滨电气、东方电气。相关公司包括上海电气。此外，全球 燃机高景气有望带动国内热端叶片、冷端缸体等部件企业出口机遇。相关公 司包括应流股份、豪迈科技、鹰普精密。 3Q25 回顾：美国需求维持半壁江山，轻燃接单阶段性放缓 分区域来看：北美市场持续贡献 50%+的新接订单。根据 McCoy，3Q25 在>10MW 燃机市场中，北美市场新接订单 12.7GW，环比+14%，占到全 部新接订单的~53%。 分企业来看：亚洲市场回暖带动 MHI 市占率修复。我们估算 3Q25 在>10MW 燃机市场中，GEV、MHI、ENR 按功率的市占率分别为 31%、30%、21%， 得益于亚洲市场回暖（根据 MHI 季报数据披 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the telecommunications and AI computing chain, including ZTE Corporation, NewEase, Ruijie Networks, Zhongji Xuchuang, China Telecom, Haige Communication, China Mobile, and Shanghai Hantong [9][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing concerns regarding the sustainability of the AI "bubble" and the effectiveness of Scaling Law, while expressing optimism about the performance of Gemini 3 and Banana Pro, which have exceeded initial expectations [2][3]. - The AI computing chain is expected to continue its upward trend, with a focus on Google's core components such as optical modules and liquid cooling systems [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the generational leap in capabilities of Gemini 3, which has achieved significant benchmarks in reasoning and multimodal tasks, thereby shortening the time from investment to revenue [20][14]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The telecommunications index fell by 2.51% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 3.90% and 5.13%, respectively [2][13]. - Concerns about the overseas AI "bubble" are prevalent, particularly regarding the effectiveness of Scaling Law and the sustainability of ROI [2][3]. Key Companies and Dynamics - The report recommends several companies within the AI computing chain, including: - ZTE Corporation (Buy, target price: 64.34) [41] - NewEase (Buy, target price: 476.71) [41] - Ruijie Networks (Buy, target price: 102.51) [41] - Zhongji Xuchuang (Buy, target price: 626.68) [41] - China Telecom (Buy, target price: 9.11) [41] - Haige Communication (Buy, target price: 13.70) [41] - China Mobile (Buy, target price: 126.20) [41] - Shanghai Hantong (Buy, target price: 28.28) [41] - China Unicom (Hold, target price: 7.56) [41] AI Computing Chain Insights - The report notes that the performance of Gemini 3 and Nano Banana Pro has significantly advanced the capabilities in reasoning and multimodal tasks, indicating a strong integration into the AI ecosystem [20][14]. - The demand for AI computing resources is expected to grow, driven by the increasing need for reasoning capabilities and the expansion of cloud token scales [20][14]. Financial Performance - ZTE Corporation reported a revenue of 100.52 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12%, but a net profit decline of 33% [42]. - NewEase's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 16.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 222%, with a net profit increase of 284% [44]. - Ruijie Networks reported a revenue of 10.68 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28%, with a net profit increase of 65% [46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 29.23 HKD, based on a 12.0x PS for 2026E, reflecting a 10% premium over comparable companies [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is making significant strides in the robotics industry with the launch of the SesameX multi-dimensional intelligent computing platform, which emphasizes safety and intelligence, facilitating rapid product deployment in real-world scenarios [1][2]. - Strategic partnerships with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Junsheng Electronics are expected to enhance the integration of chips and optical modules, providing new technological solutions for the smart automotive and robotics sectors [1][3]. - The company is actively building an ecosystem in the robotics field, collaborating with industry partners to promote the application of its technology in smart warehousing, transportation, and industrial automation, with commercialization expected to accelerate [2]. Revenue Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 8.4 billion, 14.2 billion, and 20.4 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 76.8%, 69.3%, and 44.0% [4][19]. - The report anticipates a comprehensive layout for edge AI, ranging from low-power to high-performance chips, supporting the company's optimistic outlook in the robotics and optical communication sectors [4][19].

Macro Insights - Japan's government has introduced a supplementary budget of 21.3 trillion yen, nearly 3% of GDP, as a significant economic policy under the new administration, aiming to boost economic growth in the short term [2] - However, the lack of monetary policy normalization support for this fiscal stimulus may increase the risk of inflation detachment and raise the risk premium in the bond market [2] Market Strategy - The Hong Kong stock market is entering a favorable positioning phase, with recent adjustments providing value opportunities, particularly in consumer services, construction, textiles, and home appliances [3][5] - The report suggests focusing on sectors that have been undervalued or "wrongly killed," such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and automotive, as they may present greater recovery potential [3] - The technology sector in Hong Kong has seen significant corrections, but there remains potential for revaluation as liquidity conditions improve [3] Fixed Income Analysis - The fixed income market is currently experiencing a "pressure test," with global assets showing risk-off characteristics, and A-shares under pressure [8] - The report indicates that the bond market is in a "timely counterattack" window, but the upside may be limited, suggesting a cautious approach to trading opportunities [8] - Investors are advised to focus on low-priced bonds and quality new issues while reducing exposure to high-priced, overvalued securities [8] Oil and Gas Sector - OPEC+ has raised its production targets for December, but the overall supply-demand balance remains loose, with WTI and Brent crude prices declining by 3.2% and 2.6% respectively since the end of October [9] - The report anticipates that oil prices may remain in a downward range due to the supply-demand imbalance, projecting average Brent prices of $68 and $62 for 2025 and 2026 respectively [9] Utilities and Environmental Sector - The expansion of the carbon market is expected to enhance carbon reduction value, with the new plan covering an additional 30 billion tons of emissions, increasing the coverage to approximately 60% [10] - The report highlights the potential benefits for green electricity and environmental sectors due to the rigid demand for carbon reduction, recommending companies involved in carbon-related services [10] Company-Specific Insights - Miniso's Q3 revenue increased by 28.2% to 5.8 billion yuan, driven by effective large store strategies and improved operational efficiency, with a net profit of 770 million yuan [13] - Google is positioned to regain AI leadership with advancements in its AI ecosystem, including the development of competitive AI chips and applications in various sectors [14] - The report notes that the pharmaceutical company Stone Pharmaceutical has returned to revenue growth in Q3, with a focus on new product launches and collaborations enhancing its market position [15]

Core Insights - Recent market adjustments are influenced by debates surrounding AI narratives, tightening liquidity, and geopolitical disturbances, suggesting that the current market correction has begun to establish a sense of space [2][3] - The market valuation is approaching a "reasonable" central level, and if there is an overshoot, it may present opportunities to increase positions, focusing on mid-term themes and emphasizing safety margins [2][4] Market Adjustment Factors - The market correction is attributed to multiple factors: skepticism about sustained capital expenditure in AI, tightening liquidity expectations, and increased geopolitical tensions leading to a risk-off sentiment [3] - Historical data indicates that corrections caused by liquidity shocks often have a high probability of short-term rebounds [3] A-Share Market Valuation - Based on macro variables, the model predicts that the "reasonable" forward PE TTM central level for the Shanghai Composite Index is approximately 13.6x, indicating that the current correction has established a sense of space [4] Liquidity Improvement Signals - Positive signals for domestic liquidity include a potential reduction in leverage in financing funds, a rebound in private equity fund registration data, and a decrease in investor sentiment indicators [5] - The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has risen to over 70%, which may improve overseas liquidity conditions [5] Investment Focus Areas - Emphasis on safety margins in investment strategies, focusing on sectors with low valuation and improving fundamentals, such as domestic consumption, domestic computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - High-dividend assets are highlighted as having investment value in a low-risk appetite environment, with recommendations to focus on cyclical dividends and potential dividends in sectors like coal, chemicals, and food processing [6]

证券研究报告 建议择机入场 2025 年 11 月 23 日│中国内地 量化投资周报 本周观点：建议择机入场 上周，受全球流动性压力、美联储降息预期反复以及 AI 叙事松动多重因素 影响，全球风险偏好下降——VIX 指数攀升至近三个月高位，各类风险资产 均承压，其中比特币、微盘股等对流动性和风偏更敏感的资产领跌。我们的 模型认为 A 股经过上周的调整，整体上消化了过高的估值，观点由防御转 为看平。叠加周五美联储释放了略积极的降息信号，Nowcasting 模型预测 11 月 CPI 或将继续上行至 3.7%-3.8%，但核心 CPI 预计保持平稳，或有利 于市场风偏的恢复。建议择机入场，优选低位防御板块，本周行业轮动模型 加大了对低位消费板块的押注，风格上仍看好红利。 A 股大盘择时模型：上周回调消化了高估值压力，可择机入场 我们以万得全 A 指数作为 A 股大盘代理，从估值、情绪、资金、技术四个 维度对 A 股大盘进行整体方向性判断。今年以来，模型多空择时的扣费后 收益 43.84%，同期 A 股大盘涨跌幅为 20.09%，超额收益为 23.76%；上周 模型超额收益为 10.41%。上周，受全球流动性压力 ...

Group 1: Central Bank Policy Rates and Market Rates - The relationship between central bank policy rates and market rates focuses on two dimensions: OMO leading to funding rates and short-term government bond rates, and OMO influencing funding rates, short-term rates, and ten-year government bond yields. Since May, the DR001 funding rate has returned to fluctuate near the policy rate, indicating a stable funding environment ahead [1][17][19] - The MLF policy rate's role has been gradually diminished, with OMO rate plus an average of 70 basis points becoming the new anchor for ten-year government bond yields. Currently, the spread between ten-year government bonds and OMO is stable at around 40 basis points, which is slightly low compared to historical levels [1][19][20] Group 2: Commercial Banks' Asset and Liability Rates - The efficiency of the transmission of policy rates to deposit and loan rates has varied, leading to a continuous compression of banks' net interest margins. The central bank is enhancing the linkage between asset and liability rates to stabilize bank margins, with expectations that the pressure on net interest margins will ease in the future [2][20][26] - The decline in deposit rates has been slower compared to loan rates, with the average loan rate dropping by 2.38 percentage points since August 2019, while the average deposit rate has only decreased by 0.25 percentage points for demand deposits [2][20][21] Group 3: Relationships Among Different Asset Yields - There exists a relative relationship among various asset yields, such as deposit rates, loan rates, bond yields, and stock dividend yields. The average personal housing loan interest rate is currently around 3.1%, while the adjusted yield on 30-year government bonds is higher by approximately 20 basis points, indicating a favorable comparison for bonds over loans [3][28][29] - The downward adjustment of loan rates may face constraints due to the existing yield relationships, as the loan rates have remained relatively stable despite reductions in LPR and deposit rates [3][29] Group 4: Term and Risk Rate Relationships - The current level of term spreads is low, with expectations that the spreads will widen due to regulatory attitudes, stable funding conditions, and nominal GDP recovery. The credit spreads for short-term bonds are at historical lows, while mid to long-term bonds show slightly better value but with higher volatility [4][41][42] - The pricing of different risk rates is fundamentally a matter of credit spreads, which are influenced by liquidity premiums and credit risk premiums. The current credit spreads for various ratings are at low levels, indicating potential opportunities for investment [4][44][45] Group 5: Implications for Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics - The central bank's focus on maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships is crucial for macroeconomic balance and resource allocation. The recent emphasis on these relationships may lead to a more systematic and refined approach to monitoring and managing market rates [10][59] - The dynamics of the bond market are currently influenced by concerns over potential fund redemptions and the impact of new public offering regulations, which may limit the market's ability to respond positively to favorable economic indicators [9][60][61]

- The report introduces three quantitative models: Commodity Term Structure, Commodity Time-Series Momentum, and Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory. These models are combined into a Composite Commodity Strategy using equal weighting of the three sub-strategies[25][26][28] - **Commodity Term Structure Model**: This model is constructed based on the roll yield factor to capture the contango and backwardation states of commodities. It dynamically goes long on commodities with high roll yields and short on those with low roll yields[26][30][33] - **Commodity Time-Series Momentum Model**: This model uses multiple technical indicators to capture medium- and long-term trends in domestic commodities. It dynamically goes long on assets with upward trends and short on assets with downward trends[26][35][36] - **Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model**: This model is based on the inventory factor to reflect changes in the domestic commodity fundamentals. It dynamically goes long on assets with declining inventory and short on assets with increasing inventory[26][40][43] - **Evaluation of Models**: The Commodity Term Structure Model is noted for its strong performance, achieving a new high in net value during backtesting. The Time-Series Momentum Model has shown weaker performance recently, while the Cross-Sectional Inventory Model has demonstrated moderate gains[25][35][40] - **Backtesting Results**: - Commodity Term Structure Model: Two-week return of 2.31%, year-to-date return of 7.46%[30][33][34] - Commodity Time-Series Momentum Model: Two-week return of -0.38%, year-to-date return of -3.19%[35][36][39] - Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model: Two-week return of 0.98%, year-to-date return of 5.43%[40][43][44]