证券研究报告 沛嘉医疗-B (9996 HK) 港股通 TAVR/神介齐发力，24 年净亏损缩窄 | 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 3 月 | 30 日│中国香港 | 医疗器械 | 经营预测指标与估值 TAVR 板块 24 年收入 2.60 亿元（+40%yoy），主因公司市占率进一步上行 （24 年超 3,400 台植入量，经股市占率 25%）。展望 25 年，我们看好：1） 行业端，TAVR 渗透率或随区域医保覆盖+新厂商进入而提升；2）企业端， 沛嘉有望凭借其优秀产品迭代力（如 Taurus Max）+深度管线布局进一步获 得更高市场份额（24 年新增入院超 150 家）。在研管线：TaurusNXT 及 TaurusTrio 反流瓣完成注册临床入组和一年随访，有望 25 底至 26 年上市。 神经介入板块：优势品种开启放量，看好区域集采下的进口替代机会 神经介入板块 24 年实现收入 3.56 亿元（+39%yoy，分部利润 0.52 亿元） 受益弹簧圈集采以价换量及通路类新品上市后收入爬坡。展望 25 年，我们 看好该板块收入在区域集采及上 ...

证券研究报告 国内业务方面，截止 4Q24 末，公司在运营面积达到 613,583 平方米（同比 增长 12%），机柜利用率达 73.8%，环比小幅提升 0.2pct，单价约为 2011 元/平米/月，相对保持平稳。自 2025 年以来，国内数据中心需求端明显回 暖，公司国内业务新签订单量达到 152MW，未来公司仍有较为丰富的核心 地带资源储备，有望为后续业务发展提供增长动能。海外业务方面，截止 4Q24 末，DayOne 累计签单规模达到 467MW，在运营规模达到 121MW， 2024 年共形成收入/经调整 EBITDA 1.73/0.45 亿美元，保持着良好的发展 态势，据公司业绩会，DayOne 计划在未来 18 个月内完成上市工作。 预计 2025 年业绩稳步增长，资本开支保持在合理水平 公司预计其 2025 年总收入为 112.9-115.9 亿元（同比增长 9.4%-12.3%）， 调整后 EBITDA 为 51.9-53.9 亿元（同比增长 6.4%-10.5%），这一业绩指引 部分受到私募 REITS 项目出表的影响，还原该项目出表影响后，公司预计 实现 54 亿元的经调整 EBITDA ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 8.15 HKD [8][9]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.346 billion RMB in 2024, representing a 23% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of 274 million RMB, which is a 50% year-over-year increase, aligning with previous profit forecasts [1]. - The growth in profit is attributed to the execution of joint replacement contracts, with a 25.8% year-over-year increase in joint business revenue, and continuous optimization of sales, management, and R&D expense ratios [1]. - For 2025, the company is expected to enter a new cycle of simultaneous volume and price increases, with a projected net profit growth rate of 23% [1]. Summary by Sections Joint Business Segment - The joint segment generated revenue of 1.134 billion RMB in 2024, up 25.8% year-over-year, primarily due to successful contract renewals and price increases for certain products [2]. - The impact of contract renewals is expected to be more pronounced in 2025, with price increases exceeding 15% for full ceramic and knee joints, and a recovery in surgical volumes anticipated [2]. Spine and Trauma Segment - The spine and trauma segment achieved revenue of 127 million RMB in 2024, a 3% year-over-year increase, with expectations for steady growth in 2025 driven by the gradual increase in volume during the contract renewal period [3]. Customization Platform - The customization platform generated revenue of 51 million RMB in 2024, a 3.5% year-over-year increase, with expectations for stable growth in 2025 due to advancements in smart devices and ongoing overseas market expansion [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have EPS of 0.30 RMB in 2025, with a target price set at 8.15 HKD based on a 25x PE ratio for 2025 [5]. - The expected revenues for 2025 are 1.639 billion RMB, with a net profit of 338 million RMB, reflecting a 23.3% increase from 2024 [7].

资金面均衡，资金利率上行 上周公开市场到期 14117 亿元，均为逆回购到期，公开市场投放 17153 亿 元，其中逆回购投放 12653 亿元，MLF 投放 4500 亿元，合计净投放 3036 亿元。资金面保持均衡，DR007 均值为 1.96%，较前一周上行 7BP，R007 均值为 2.16%，较前一周上行 21BP，DR001 和 R001 均值分别为 1.75% 和 1.8%。交易所回购利率整体上行，GC007 均值为 2.27%，较前一周上行 27BP。截至上周最后一个交易日，逆回购未到期余额为 12653 亿元，较前 一周下行。 证券研究报告 固收 流动性跟踪周报（2025.3.24-3.30） 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 31 日│中国内地 流动性周报 存单利率下行，IRS 收益率下行 上周存单合计到期 8291.8 亿元，发行 8302 亿元，净融资规模 10.2 亿元。 截至上周最后一个交易日，存单到期收益率（1 年期 AAA）为 1.9%，较前 一周下行。本周存单单周到期规模在 1063.5 亿元左右，到期压力较前一周 减小。利率互换方面，上周 1 年期 FR007 利率互换均值为 ...

科技 Semicon 启示：新品密集发布，国产 化持续提升 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 31 日│中国内地 动态点评 半导体设备国产化率持续提升，上市/非上市设备商持续推进核心设备布局 3 月 26 日-28 日 Semicon 2025 于上海召开，会议上，我们观察到 1）半导 体设备商北方华创、中微公司、拓荆科技等积极推出离子注入、刻蚀、沉积 等新产品，持续扩张国产设备版图；2）非上市公司中，新凯来关注度较高， 新凯来在本次 Semicon 发布包括外延沉积设备 EPI（峨眉山）、原子层沉积 设备 ALD（阿里山）、物理气相沉积设备 PVD（普陀山）、刻蚀设备 ETCH （武夷山）、薄膜沉积设备 CVD（长白山）等数十款新品。新凯来的参与或 对半导体设备行业供给格局有一定影响，根据 Gartner 数据，刻蚀、薄膜沉 积、离子注入、光刻与量检测等核心设备在制程及细分品类仍有广阔提升空 间，我们看好设备行业国产化率提升以及对上游设备零部件的拉动作用。 下游扩产需求旺盛，设备厂全年展望乐观 展望 2025 年，我们认为 DeepSeek 等开源大模型有望进一步带动国产先进 制程需求，逻辑与存储芯片厂商先进 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's 2024 revenue reached 7.092 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.94%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.669 billion RMB, up 0.55% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.604 RMB per share for the 2024 fiscal year, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 60% [1] - The company has completed the acquisition of two highways, which has led to an upward revision of the 2025 net profit forecast by 9.7% to 1.88 billion RMB [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's toll revenue decreased by 5.2% due to weak traffic growth and construction activities causing detours [2] - The company's operating costs for toll roads decreased by 1.5% in 2024, with depreciation and maintenance costs down by 4.3% and 6.3% respectively [3] - The company recorded a fair value loss of 0.32 billion RMB in 2024, primarily due to the decline in the price of a REIT [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025 is set at 9.292 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 31.03% [6] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 1.879 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.57% [6] - The company has introduced a forecast for 2027 with a net profit of 1.62 billion RMB, anticipating a decline due to the impact of highway expansion [4] Valuation - The target price for the A-shares is set at 18.60 RMB and for H-shares at 15.80 HKD [7][8] - The DCF valuation method is used, with a WACC of 5.0% for A-shares and 6.5% for H-shares [4]

证券研究报告 固收视角 生产与货运修复，新房成交收敛 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 31 日│中国内地 张继强 吴宇航 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴靖，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com 李梓豪 联系人 SAC No. S0570124060040 lizihao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 高频数据核心观点 3 月第 4 周，生产端开工率和货运量多数延续改善趋势，但建筑钢材成交数据有所反复，水泥表现强于黑色，或表征 基建需求的释放与房建"弱项"的特征；出口吞吐量强，但运价分化，外需前景不确定性较强；新房备案成交同比回 落，季末冲量成色一般，二手热度基本延续；价格方面，黑色系低位反弹但情绪谨慎，煤价水泥仍在下行。 1、消费：出行热度基本持平，汽车消 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in cement prices in the eastern region, which is anticipated to support profit growth due to improved pricing dynamics [19][24] - The company has maintained a strong financial position with a net debt ratio of -22% as of the end of 2024, indicating robust operational resilience [4] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 91,030 million in 2024, with a decline of 35.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 7,696 million, down 26.2% year-on-year [7] - For 2025, the expected earnings per share (EPS) is RMB 1.88, with a gradual increase to RMB 2.29 by 2027 [5] Market Dynamics - The eastern and central regions account for over 50% of the company's main revenue, and the recovery in these areas is crucial for profit generation [2] - The company has seen a significant increase in cement prices, with a 15% year-on-year rise in the price of PO42.5 bulk cement in the eastern region as of March 28, 2025 [24] Operational Efficiency - The company has successfully reduced capital expenditures, with planned reductions of 18% and 20% for 2023 and 2024, respectively, and a further 23% reduction planned for 2025 [4] - The company has achieved a comprehensive cost of RMB 187.25 per ton for self-produced cement clinker, which is lower than its domestic peers [61] International Expansion - The company has expanded its overseas production capacity, with 11 operational clinker production lines generating approximately 16.5 million tons annually, representing 6% of its total global capacity [3][39] - The overseas business has shown stable profitability, with a significant increase in profit from RMB 1.1 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.3 billion in 2024 [42] Aggregate Business Development - The company has increased its aggregate production capacity to 163 million tons by the end of 2024, with plans for further expansion in 2025 [48] - The aggregate business has generated revenue of RMB 4.69 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.4% [51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 2.87 [6][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be USD 4.45 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 6%, primarily driven by a recovery in server demand and the integration of Voltaira [1][3]. - The company's performance in 2H24 is expected to be impacted by a decline in smartphone connector prices and adjustments in the acoustic production line in Vietnam, leading to a revenue decrease of 1% year-over-year [2][1]. - The anticipated growth drivers for 2025 include 5G, AIoT, and audio products, with significant contributions expected from new AI server contracts and the establishment of AirPods assembly lines in India [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of USD 4.20 billion in 2023, with a projected increase to USD 4.45 billion in 2024 and USD 4.70 billion in 2025, reflecting growth rates of -7.4%, 6.1%, and 5.7% respectively [5][20]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from USD 128.97 million in 2023 to USD 208.76 million in 2025, with growth rates of -23.97%, 19.20%, and 35.79% [5][20]. Segment Analysis - The smartphone segment is projected to decline by 10% in 2025 due to lower connector prices, while the network equipment segment is expected to grow significantly by 55% in 2025 due to increased demand from AI server clients [11][13]. - The audio segment is anticipated to become a core revenue source in 2025, supported by the launch of new assembly lines in India [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 2.87, based on a 12.9x PE ratio for 2025, aligning with comparable companies [4][14]. - The company's market capitalization is reported at HKD 18.02 billion, with a closing price of HKD 2.47 as of March 28 [7][14].

证券研究报告 新五丰 (600975 CH) 2024 年同比扭亏，成本持续拓潜 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 31 日│中国内地 | 农业综合 | 新五丰发布年报，2024 年实现营收 70.45 亿元（yoy+25.09%），归母净利 3932.04 万元（yoy+103.27%），扣非净利 2150.45 万元（yoy+101.79%）。 其中 Q4实现营收 17.74亿元（yoy+0.93%，qoq-12.94%），归母净利 3809.15 万元（yoy+108.39%，qoq-84.65%）。公司出栏维持高增，成本仍有拓潜空 间，维持"增持"评级。 猪价回暖+成本拓潜，公司 2024 年同比扭亏 猪价回升及公司养殖成本下降或是公司 2024 年归母净利润扭亏主因。2024 年公司实现归母净利润 0.39 亿元，估算主系生猪养殖板块贡献，其他饲料 及屠宰板块略有亏损。其中 1）2024 年合计出栏生猪 425 万头，同比+33%， 公司生猪出栏保持高速增长；2）我们估算公司 2024 年肥猪养殖完全成本 在 ...