Domestic Policy - Trump's administration has focused on addressing the cost of living crisis as the main economic policy for the second year, with measures including housing policy, pressure on tech giants for upfront payments, and price controls on credit card rates[8] - The administration has proposed a total of 102 deregulatory policies, with 46 already in effect, showing a significant increase in deregulation compared to the first term[30] - The "Big and Beautiful" Act is expected to add $4.1 trillion to the national deficit over the next decade, raising the net debt-to-GDP ratio from 97% to an estimated 127% by 2034[33] Economic Performance - The U.S. economy has shown resilience, with projected GDP growth for 2026 expected to exceed 2.6%, driven by fiscal expansion and a reduction in tariff impacts[6] - Despite the resilience in economic data, public sentiment regarding the economy has worsened, with consumer confidence at its lowest since 1952[11] - Inflation remains controlled, with a slight decrease expected in 2025, although certain goods like coffee and electricity have seen significant price increases[26] Trade and Tariffs - Tariff rates have fluctuated, with the weighted average tariff rate increasing by approximately 9 percentage points to around 11% since Trump's inauguration, which is lower than theoretical expectations[10] - Trade agreements have been established with various countries, including a commitment from Taiwan to invest $250 billion in the U.S. tech sector[16] - The trade deficit has not significantly decreased despite tariff implementations, indicating a restructuring of import sources rather than a reduction in the deficit itself[26] Immigration Policy - The administration has aggressively pursued immigration control, with illegal border encounters dropping from 180,000 per month during the Biden administration to 11,000 per month under Trump[21] - The net number of illegal immigrants has decreased, with a reported net decline of 89,000 by July 2025, and projections for 2026 showing a drop in net immigration from 1.56 million to 570,000[27][19] Political Landscape - Trump's approval ratings are among the lowest for any president in the last 50 years, with significant dissatisfaction regarding inflation, taxes, and employment[11] - The midterm elections are expected to constrain Trump's policy agenda, with predictions indicating potential losses for the Republican Party in the House of Representatives[11]

证券研究报告 宏观视角 金价近五千、银价破一百的启示 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 25 日│美国 易峘 研究员 SAC No. S0570520100005 SFC No. AMH263 evayi@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 2023 年来，我们始终看好以黄金为代表的贵金属价格重估（参见《全球央行购金百年史：任重而道远》，2024/5/10）。 随着全球地缘政治重构和财政可持续性恶化均驶入"快车道"，我们持续看好这类有一定"货币属性"的商品的长期 配置价值。但随着贵金属重估进入"共识"阶段，我们也进一步探讨这一趋势对更广义资产配置的启示，①全球变局 下黄金、白银的走势提醒我们，货币"含金量"下降、"估值锚"快速向上漂移，我们对供给稀缺实物资产和核心股 权资产的定价体系或许需要有所调整。②全球大宗商品、包括 AI 和国防军工航天等领域稀缺关键商品的供需平衡变化 可能持续推动更广义的商品、资源品价格重估，鉴于 2026 后与 2025 年前相比，全球投资周期将更为"耗材"，且 AI 基建及国防军工等核心需求增量的价格敏感度较低；同时，中国地产相关耗材量下降接近尾声，全球资源品需求不再 ...

证券研究报告 新大正 (002968 CH) 拟开展重大收并购，助力规模跃升、 业务延展、区域补强 | सह - | | --- | | 6 | | 泰研 | | 究 | 拟收购国内综合设施管理服务商，定价公允 嘉信立恒成立于 2020 年，由中信资本投资设立，通过收并购整合了安锐盟、 斯卡伊、杜斯曼、道威、朗杰、天纳等多个品牌，致力于打造中国领先的综 合设施管理服务商。25E 营收、剔除股份支付的归母净利润（基于 1-8M25 业绩表现年化计算）分别为 30.5、1.1 亿元，23-25E 年化增速分别为 4%/15%。本次交易对价 9.17 亿元（其中 50%通过现金支付、50%通过发 行股份支付），对应嘉信立恒 25PE 为 8.4 倍，远低于主流上市物管公司平 均 PE(TTM)14.7 倍（截至 1 月 26 日，剔除负值），我们认为定价较为合 理、亦符合当前物管收并购市场的整体水温。 有望为公司带来规模跃升、业务延展、区域补强三重增益 若交易落地，我们认为公司有望迎来三重增益：1、营收规模大幅跃升、行 业话语权增强，24 年公司营收将从 34 亿元提升至 64 亿元，在主流上市物 管公司中的排名将 ...

证券研究报告 石油天然气 地缘溢价或提前带动油价筑底反弹 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 26 日│中国内地 行业月报 地缘紧张局势再起，油价或已进入筑底反弹阶段 26 年 1 月以来，委内瑞拉、伊朗等地缘紧张局势再次引发市场供应风险担 忧，1 月 23 日 WTI/Brent 期货价格收于 61.07/65.88 美元/桶，较 12 月末上 涨 6.4%/8.3%。我们认为地缘溢价已导致淡季油价筑底反弹，随着需求回升 及全球性储备性累库，26Q2-Q3 油价有望见底上探，叠加美联储降息对需 求拉动，亚非拉地区成品油需求或景气上行，上调 26 年布伦特均价为 65 美元/桶（前值 62 美元/桶）。长期而言，考虑主要产油国边际成本及"利 重于量"诉求，油价中枢存 60 美元/桶底部支撑。具备增产降本能力及天然 气业务增量的能源龙头企业或将显现配置机遇，推荐中国石油（A/H）、中 国海油（A/H）；油价筑底后库存损失减少，叠加炼化有望迎来盈利低迷下 的景气反转，推荐中国石化（A/H）。 需求侧：北半球需求淡季，中国原油进口量同环比显著提升 据 IEA，考虑宏观经济和贸易前景改善，叠加油价下跌及美元走弱，上调 2 ...

证券研究报告 公司已与巴斯夫、赛彼科、Hallstar、帝斯曼-芬美意、禾大化学品以及华熙 生物等全球知名原料供应商建立长期合作，并与部分优秀供应商开展项目合 作。2025 年，公司持续推进新原料的引入与应用，其中 2025 年 12 月公司 第二款新原料金花茶花提取物已报国家药品监督管理局备案，25H1 新落地 蜂王浆多肽紧致焕颜系列、超微水光焕颜油敷面膜、NBC 点阵特护冻干系 列 2.0 等产品。同时，公司在化妆品原料、化妆品检测领域形成产业矩阵， 有助于提升产业链运营效率和企业综合实力。 青松股份 (300132 CH) 化妆品业务复苏趋势进一步明确 2026 年 1 月 26 日│中国内地 商业贸易 公司全资子公司诺斯贝尔为国内化妆品代工龙头，22 年以来因行业景气度 下降、海外湿巾订单下滑等因素，化妆品业务增长持续承压且 22/23 连续亏 损。24Q3 以来伴随行业复苏，营收增速转正并持续增长提速，25Q4 营收 yoy 进一步提速至 20.2%；同时，伴随品类结构优化/运营效率提升/折旧摊 销压力降低，利润率也显著修复。公司执行"聚焦客户、聚焦产品"战略， 重回健康增长轨道，依托国际品牌+国货 ...

今日早参 2026 年 1 月 27 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：进退两难的日元再度迎来"干预窗口" 上周五（1 月 23 日），日元在日央行发布会后以及美国交易时间出现快速升 值，截至周一（1 月 26 日）的两个交易日内累计升值 2.6%至 154.2 日元/美 元，背后主要是美国和日本释放出"利率检查"（"rate check"）信号，市场 猜测美日未来或联合干预日元汇率。历史上，日本当局在"利率检查"后较 短时间内就会启动汇率干预，若外汇干预落地，短期或推动日元升值。鉴于 日央行货币政策大幅落后于利率曲线，或已错失"优雅转身"的最佳时间窗 口：日本财政扩张预期叠加利率落后于曲线，日债收益率或易上难下，日元 资产亦或进入高波动阶段。 风险提示：日本众议院选举结果超预期；日本通胀水平超预期。 研报发布日期：2026-01-26 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 陈玮 SAC:S0570524030003 SFC:BVH374 宏观：1 月 FOMC ...

证券研究报告 科技 通信 Q4 算力、商业航天获加仓 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 26 日│中国内地 行业周报（第四周） 本周观点 市场方面，上周通信（申万）指数下跌 2.12%，同期上证综指上涨 0.84%， 深证成指上涨 1.11%。据我们对公募基金 2025 年四季报的统计，4Q25 通 信板块基金前十大重仓中持仓占比 8.75%，环比上升 0.91pct；4Q25 通信 板块超配比例持续提升，超配比例为 5.25%；液冷、光芯片、数据中心、航 天等板块获增持。建议关注全球 AI 算力链投资机遇（光模块、液冷、铜连 接、交换机等）以及商业航天板块投资机遇（火箭、卫星、终端）。 周专题：通信板块 4Q25 持仓高增，算力、航天板块获加仓 根据我们对公募基金 2025 年四季报统计， 4Q25 公募基金前十大重仓中通 信板块 A 股持仓占比 8.75%，环比上升 0.91pct；4Q25 板块超配比例为 5.25%，较 3Q25 上升 1.89pct。4Q25 公募基金加仓液冷、光芯片、数据 中心、北斗等板块，减仓光纤光缆、通信设备等板块。中际旭创、新易盛、 天孚通信、英维克、源杰科技为 4Q25 持仓 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (Maintain) [2] Core Viewpoints - The global computing power construction is accelerating, leading to a rapid increase in photovoltaic demand. Elon Musk announced plans for SpaceX and Tesla to achieve a combined photovoltaic capacity of approximately 200GW in the U.S. within three years [3][4] - The photovoltaic technology routes for ground and space applications are diversifying, with TOPCon, HJT, and perovskite technologies expected to grow in parallel. The report is optimistic about the development potential of these technologies in the context of large-scale overseas photovoltaic capacity construction [3][4][6] - The energy supply for AI applications is currently a bottleneck, with AI chip production growing exponentially while power supply only increases by 4% annually. Photovoltaics are seen as a key solution to this energy bottleneck, with the potential for hundreds of terawatts of power generation from space photovoltaics in the future [4] Summary by Sections Section: Ground and Space Computing Power - Ground computing power is expected to add 97GW capacity globally between 2025 and 2030, driven by the expansion of large-scale cloud services and AI demand, resulting in a CAGR of 14%. This will increase total capacity to over 200GW and raise electricity demand from data centers significantly [5] - Space computing power is becoming more economically viable due to the long-term decline in commercial space launch costs. Plans for space data centers are being developed, with significant capacity expected in the coming years [5] Section: Photovoltaic Technology Routes - In space photovoltaics, gallium arsenide batteries are currently the mainstream technology due to their high efficiency and radiation resistance, but their high cost limits their use in large-scale satellite networks. Perovskite and P-type HJT batteries show promise for space applications due to their better performance and lower manufacturing costs [6] - Ground photovoltaic technologies like TOPCon are expected to maintain a leading market share due to their good low-irradiation performance and commercial maturity [6] Section: Equipment Companies - Companies involved in photovoltaic equipment are likely to see an increase in orders due to Musk's plans for photovoltaic capacity. Key players include: - Maiwei Co., a leader in HJT equipment benefiting from P-type HJT and perovskite applications in space - Aotwei, which provides equipment for both space and ground photovoltaic capacity - Gaoce Co., a leader in wafer cutting technology, expected to benefit from the trend towards thinner solar cells in space applications [7]

证券研究报告 博泰车联 (2889 HK) 高通+鸿蒙智舱全栈 Tier1 崛起 2026 年 1 月 25 日│中国香港 汽车零部件 | 华泰研究 | | | 首次覆盖 | 投资评级(首评): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 | 25 日│中国香港 | 汽车零部件 | 目标价(港币): | 286.67 | 宋亭亭 研究员 | SAC No. S0570522110001 | songtingting021619@htsc.com | | --- | --- | | SFC No. BTK945 | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | | 郭春麟* | 联系人 | | SAC No. S0570124110001 | guochunlin@htsc.com | | --- | --- | | | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 基本数据 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (人民币) | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

证券研究报告 金工 量化指增基金超额呈现边际修复 2026 年 1 月 24 日│中国内地 量化投资周报 本月以来估值因子偏弱，成长因子相对走强 本月以来估值因子整体偏弱，月初的回撤影响较大；波动率、换手率等防御 性量价因子同样表现不佳，仅在沪深 300 成分股票池取得正收益。成长、 盈利、小市值及反转因子相对走强，在中证 500 以外的成分股票池均呈现 正收益。预期类因子中，超预期因子在沪深 300 以外的股票池呈现正收益； 预期估值因子在沪深 300 和全 A 股股票池取得正收益，在其余股票池回撤； 预期增速因子则呈现普遍回撤。 本月以来小市值因子多空表现靠前，量价因子承压 从平均多空收益来看，本月以来小市值因子表现靠前，平均取得较明显的正 收益，但主要源于在沪深 300 成分股票池中的收益优势；预期增速和超预 期因子紧随其后；成长因子同样呈现正向的平均多空收益。反转、波动率和 换手率等量价因子整体承压，平均呈现较大回撤。 本月以来指增超额呈现边际修复，300 指增超额领先 我们重点跟踪以沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 和中证 A500 指数为基准 的量化指数增强基金。基于公募指增基金的复权净 ...