证券研究报告 宇通重工 (600817 CH) 有望扩大新能源装备市场优势 华泰研究 季报点评 投资评级(维持): 增持 目标价(人民币): 13.34 王玮嘉 研究员 SAC No. S0570517050002 SFC No. BEB090 黄波 研究员 huangbo@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 3570 SFC No. BQR122 李雅琳 研究员 SAC No. S0570523050003 SFC No. BTC420 胡知* 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120002 huzhi019072@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 康琪* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070105 kangqi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 基本数据 | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 10 月 31 日) | 11.69 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 6,234 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 73.59 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 10.36-14.20 | 股价走势图 ...

证券研究报告 宝钢股份 (600019 CH) 原料让利助力 25Q3 利润同比改善 2025 年 10 月 31 日│中国内地 普钢 宝钢股份发布三季报：Q3 实现营收 810.64 亿元（yoy+1.83%，qoq+3.28%）， 归母净利 30.81 亿元（yoy+130.31%，qoq+26.00%），归母净利同比大幅 改善主因钢价下跌幅度低于原料。2025 年 Q1-Q3 实现营收 2324.36 亿元 （yoy-4.29%），归母净利 79.59 亿元（yoy+35.32%）。公司作为行业龙 头，利润有望实现逐步修复，我们维持买入评级。 钢价下跌幅度低于原料，助于公司 25Q3 归母净利同比改善 据 Wind，25Q3 钢材指数、铁矿石指数和焦煤期货结算均价分别同比下降 1.7%、5.4%和 21.6%，钢价下跌幅度低于铁矿和焦煤两种重要原料成本下 降；因此公司 25Q3 销售毛利率同比上涨 3.5pct 至 7.8%。25Q3 期间费用 率 3.0%，同比小幅下降 0.3pct。25Q3 毛利率提升和期间费用率小幅下降， 共同助力公司 25Q3 归母净利同比增长 130.31%。 公司盈利业绩保 ...

证券研究报告 广立微 (301095 CH) 业绩同比高增，软硬件协同加速兑现 2025 年 10 月 31 日│中国内地 计算机应用 我们维持公司 25-27 年收入预测为 7.60/9.87/12.33 亿元，略调整公司 25-27 年归母净利润 预 测 为 1.61/2.12/2.79 亿 元 ， 对 应 EPS 为 0.80/1.06/1.39 元。采用分部估值法，软件业务可比公司平均 25E 37.7x PS，考虑到 25-27 年公司软件业务营收 CAGR 为 56%，高于可比公司均 值（28%），给予软件业务 25E 45x PS，预计公司 25 年软件业务营收 2.67 亿元，对应市值 120 亿元；测试机业务可比公司平均 25E 71.4x PE，给 予公司 WAT 测试机业务 25E 71.4x PE，预计公司 25 年 WAT 测试机 业务净利润 1.09 亿元，对应市值 77.84 亿元。综上，上调目标价为 98.77 元（前值 92.78 元，对应软件/测试机业务 25E 45xPS/25E 60x PE）。 风险提示：下游景气度不及预期；市场竞争加剧。 广立微发布三季报：Q3 实现 ...

证券研究报告 凯盛科技 (600552 CH) 显示业务延续较快增长 2025 年 10 月 31 日│中国内地 公司公布三季度业绩：25 年 1-9 月实现营收/归母净利 43.1/1.3 亿元，同比 +20.6%/+15.1%，Q3 收入/归母净利 15.5/0.8 亿元，同比+13.8%/+9.9%， Q3 业绩符合我们预期（0.8 亿元），显示材料业务延续较快增长，我们看 好公司 UTG、高纯石英砂的成长性，新产能有望逐步释放，维持"买入"。 Q3 收入同环比延续增长，毛利率环比显著提升 25Q3 公司收入 15.5 亿元，同/环比+13.8%/+3.0%，环比连续两个季度提升， 我们预计主要受显示业务快速增长带动。25Q3 公司毛利率 22.4%，同/环比 -1.1/+7.2pct，环比明显提升预计主要是因为产品销售结构优化，高毛利率 产品出货占比提升。据公司交易所互动平台问答信息，公司 UTG 产品已向 下游客户批量交付并产生了一定的经济效益，我们预计公司高端产品持续放 量有望带动公司产品结构及盈利能力进一步改善。 收入增长带动期间费用率下降，经营性净现金流改善 25 前三季度公司期间费用率 14 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 19.04 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved Q3 revenue of RMB 1.726 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 31.45% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.47%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 162 million, up 176.59% year-over-year but down 19.25% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 5.417 billion, a 33.00% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of RMB 666 million, reflecting a 271.17% year-over-year increase. The growth was driven by both gaming and film and television segments [1][2]. - The gaming segment saw significant contributions from new releases such as "Zhu Xian 2" and the overseas success of "P5X," while the film and television segment turned profitable with a revenue increase of 432.90% year-over-year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's gross margin was 64.83%, an increase of 13.06 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin gaming business [3]. - The company reported a sales expense ratio of 12.44% and a management expense ratio of 8.9%, both showing improvements year-over-year [3]. Gaming Business - The gaming business generated RMB 4.475 billion in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-over-year increase of 15.64%. The MMORPG mobile game "Zhu Xian 2" was a key contributor to domestic market growth [2]. - The upcoming PC game "Zhu Xian World," set to launch by the end of 2024, is expected to continue contributing to revenue in 2025 [2]. Film and Television Business - The film and television segment reported a revenue of RMB 918 million for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a significant turnaround with a net profit of RMB 25.82 million [2]. - The upcoming game "Yihuan," developed using the UE5 engine, is anticipated to perform well based on positive feedback from early testing [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be RMB 738 million, RMB 1.421 billion, and RMB 1.531 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.38, RMB 0.73, and RMB 0.79 [4][10]. - The company is assigned a 26X PE valuation for 2026, reflecting its forward-looking AI initiatives and the expected success of upcoming projects [4].

证券研究报告 农业银行 (601288 CH/1288 HK) 港股通 投资收益向好+规模稳增支撑业绩 华泰研究 季报点评 2025 年 10 月 31 日│中国内地/中国香港 国有大型银行 农业银行 1-9 月归母净利润、营业收入、PPOP 分别同比+3.0%、+2.0%、 +1.3%，增速较 1-6 月+0.4pct、+1.1pct、+1.2pct。 公司业绩边际改善，利 息净收入降幅收窄，非息收入增速回升，资产质量稳健，信用成本下行。我 们认为公司县域地位领先，业绩增长具备韧性，A/H 股维持增持/买入评级。 规模持续增长，息差略有波动 9 月末总资产、贷款、存款增速分别为+10.5%、+9.1%、+7.5%，较 6 月末 -1.1pct、-0.6pct、-0.8pct。1-9 月净息差为 1.30%，较 1-6 月-2bp。1-9 月 利息净收入同比-2.4%，增速较 1-6 月+0.5pct。9 月末县域发放贷款和垫款 总额 10.90 万亿元，比上年末增加 1.04 万亿元，增长 10.57%。县域吸收存 款 14.10 万亿元，比上年末增加 0.95 万亿元，增长 7.20%。1-9 月年化 R ...

证券研究报告 中国银河 (601881 CH/6881 HK) 港股通 业务全线增长，扩表趋势延续 华泰研究 季报点评 2025 年 10 月 31 日│中国内地/中国香港 证券 投资驱动业绩增长，权益杠杆小幅提升 前三季度投资业务收入同比高增，是业绩增长的核心驱动之一。25Q3 末金 融投资规模季度环比提升 2%至 4170 亿元。其中股债资产配置有所分化， 交易性金融资产季度环比提升 1%至 2208 亿元；OCI 权益工具季度环比提 升 3%至 598 亿元，有所加仓；其他债权投资季度环比+5%至 997 亿元，固 收仓位有所增配。季度末母公司自营权益类证券及衍生品/净资本、自营非 权益类证券及衍生品/净资本分别为 32.69%、306.22%，季度环比+3.44pct、 -21.46pct，权益杠杆率小幅提升。25Q3 单季度投资类收入 47 亿元，同比 +22%、季度环比+10%，投资业绩环比有所提升。权益类投资方面，公司 着力加强在 AI、量子计算、生物医药、新能源材料等先进技术领域的前瞻 性研究和布局；固收投资创新业务成果丰硕、客需业务取得跨越式发展。 经纪、投行、资管净收入同比增长 前三季度经 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 5.36 [6][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a year-on-year increase in net profit and revenue of 5.8% and 1.2% respectively for the first nine months of 2025, indicating stable profit growth supported by credit stability and improved capital levels [6][9]. - The company has shown effective business transformation with steady operational efficiency, focusing on credit stability, interest margin stabilization, and robust non-interest income growth [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues for 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are RMB 4,711 million, RMB 4,767 million, RMB 4,845 million, and RMB 4,971 million respectively, with growth rates of 3.75%, 1.18%, 1.64%, and 2.61% [5]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profits for the same years are RMB 1,879 million, RMB 1,985 million, RMB 2,090 million, and RMB 2,198 million, reflecting growth rates of 5.13%, 5.67%, 5.31%, and 5.16% [5]. - **Asset Quality**: The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is projected to remain stable at 0.94% through 2027, with a robust provision coverage ratio of 355% as of September [9][32]. Business Operations Summary - **Credit and Deposits**: As of September, total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 2.5%, 7.5%, and 6.3% respectively, indicating a stable credit environment [7]. - **Non-Interest Income**: Non-interest income increased by 22.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in wealth management and other non-interest income streams [8]. - **Capital Adequacy**: The capital adequacy ratio and core tier 1 capital ratio improved to 13.49% and 11.06% respectively, enhancing the company's risk resilience [9].

证券研究报告 公牛集团 (603195 CH) 传统业务短期承压，新业务积极推进 2025 年 10 月 31 日│中国内地 小家电 公司公布三季度业绩：25Q3 单季实现营收 40.3 亿元（yoy-4.44%， qoq-5.08%），归母净利 9.19 亿元（yoy-10.29%，qoq-15.26%）。25 年 前三季度实现营收 121.98 亿元（yoy-3.22%），归母净利 29.79 亿元 （yoy-8.72%），扣非净利 27.01 亿元（yoy-4.87%）。受国内消费环境及 新房销售放缓的影响，传统主业短期增长承压，但公司积极布局新能源、数 据中心电连接业务打开增量空间，长期增长逻辑清晰，维持"增持"评级。 传统主业增长承压，新业务布局持续推进 25 年前三季度，总营收同比-3.22%，主要受国内新房销售放缓的影响，智 能电工照明等核心业务需求较弱。公司 2025 年 9 月末在建工程余额 4.40 亿元，较 2024 年末的 3.17 亿元增长 38.97%，生产线建设与技术储备有利 于后续产能优化和产品研发升级。同时，依托现有品牌与渠道优势，公司持 续拓展 To B 业务场景，目前已与 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained for both A-shares and H-shares [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 78.403 billion RMB in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.21% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.81%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.571 billion RMB, which is a year-over-year decrease of 8.53% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 26.63%, falling short of expectations [1]. - The company is optimistic about the ongoing adjustments in its express logistics business and the transformation towards industry specialization, with international business benefiting from the trend of Chinese enterprises expanding overseas [1]. Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In Q3, the express logistics business generated a revenue growth of 14.4% year-over-year, with a total volume of 4.31 billion pieces, an increase of 33.4% year-over-year, surpassing the industry average growth of 13.3%. The company has activated its operational mechanisms, granting frontline management more authority and incentives [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 12.5%, down 1.6 percentage points year-over-year and 0.7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to the "first scale, then optimization" strategy which temporarily affected profitability [2]. Supply Chain and International Business - The supply chain and international business saw a revenue decline of 5.3% year-over-year in Q3, mainly due to the drop in sea freight prices affecting international freight forwarding. However, revenues from international express and cross-border e-commerce logistics grew rapidly, with logistics revenue in sectors like industrial equipment and consumer goods increasing by over 25% year-over-year [3]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced an increase in the share buyback plan for the first phase of 2025, raising the total amount from a minimum of 5 billion RMB to a minimum of 15 billion RMB, with a maximum of 30 billion RMB. As of September 30, the company had repurchased 7.4326 million A-shares for approximately 300 million RMB [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 9%, 9%, and 7% respectively, to 10.77 billion RMB, 12.92 billion RMB, and 14.94 billion RMB. The corresponding EPS estimates are 2.14 RMB, 2.56 RMB, and 2.96 RMB. The adjustments are attributed to the temporary impact on gross margins from the express logistics strategy and the time required to realize benefits from the industry transformation [5]. - The target price for A-shares is set at 53.10 RMB and for H-shares at 49.30 HKD, with the valuation multiples for 2026 estimated at 8.1x EV/EBITDA for A-shares and 7.0x EV/EBITDA for H-shares, both above their respective averages [5].