证券研究报告 制造业天然气需求分化重塑城燃定位 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 29 日│中国内地 专题研究 制造业天然气需求结构性分化，城燃公司转型突围机遇凸显 我们预测 2026-2028 年中国制造业天然气需求将保持温和增长（年均增速 2%），但结构性分化显著：新兴制造业、汽车制造等领域需求持续扩容（年 均增速最高 7.8%），传统高耗能行业需求逐步收缩（年均降幅 2.8%-3.1%）。 这一变化推动城燃行业从"资源分销"向"综合能源服务"转型，客户结构 优化、增值服务拓展与顺价效率提升构成核心机遇，同时替代能源竞争与区 域博弈加剧行业分化，具备转型能力的企业将充分享受结构性红利。投资主 线聚焦转型能力与结构红利：1）全国性城燃龙头（昆仑能源、中国燃气）， 依托跨区域资源与管网优势捕捉新兴需求；2）区域龙头（深圳燃气、佛燃 能源），深耕本地新兴产业集群，绑定零碳园区建设；3）能源服务平台型 企业（新奥股份），凭借 LNG 资源优势对接大型新兴制造业项目。 需求端：结构性分化成核心主线 根据中国能源统计年鉴数据，2022 年制造业天然气消费量 1550 亿方，占 终端能源消费比 8.56%。2023-20 ...

证券研究报告 港股通 中国重汽 (3808 HK) 聚力开门红，出口拓宽成长路 2026 年 1 月 29 日│中国香港 商用车 进入 26 年，公司全力冲刺"开门红"，为新一年的销量增长打下坚实基础。 展望 26 年，行业端受益于两新政策快速衔接（内销）和亚非拉地区重点突 破（出口），我们看好重卡行业保持高景气度。公司作为头部重卡企业或率 先受益，维持"买入"评级。 25 年交出亮眼答卷，26 年"开局即冲刺" 王立献* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525020001 wanglixian@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 2025 年，中国重汽集团整车销量突破 44 万辆，其中重卡销量 30 万辆，不 仅连续 4 年销量稳居国内重卡行业第一公司，更成为全球重卡销量龙头。我 们认为公司取得亮眼成绩，主要原因系：①强大生产制造能力支撑；②国内 市场充分受益于两新政策范围扩大（扩大至国四）和快速衔接；③海外市场 的持续耕耘（12 月与哈萨克斯坦卡拉干达州州长举行会见并签约）。进入 26 年，集团召开"新征程·谋新篇·势夺首季开门红"的生产经营大会。 我们认为该会议为公司 Q1 开门 ...

证券研究报告 新东方 (9901 HK/EDU US) 新东方公布 2QFY26 业绩（以下简称 Q2）：总收入 11.91 亿美元， yoy+14.7%，增速超指引上限（12%）；调整后经营利润 0.89 亿美元，对 应 OPM 为 7.5%，同比提升 4.7pct，大幅超过彭博一致预期（yoy+2pct）。 公司指引 3QFY26/FY26 全年美元口径总收入同比增长 11~14%/8~12%（彭 博一致预期 12%/10%），反映教学质量提升、需求回归和汇率顺风的影响。 我们认为公司核心 K12 业务增长稳健，降本增效及多元化发展下集团利润 率有望逐步改善，长期有望为股东创造持续稳定的回报，维持"买入"。 K12 业务兑现秋季提速，经营利润率提升超预期 分业务看，随着秋季 K12 行业回归正价竞争，头部品牌机构增长环比改善， 教育属性新业务收入在 Q2 同比增速加速至 21.6%；大学生及成人教育收入 同比增长 12.8%（Q1:14.4%），增速稳健；留学考培收入同比增长 4.1%， 留学咨询收入同比下降约 3%，逆境中展现较强韧性。得益于运营杠杆的优 化、成本控制措施的逐步落地，以及东方甄选的盈利贡 ...

证券研究报告 新东方 (9901 HK/EDU US) 低基数下利润有望持续释放 华泰研究 中报点评 2026 年 1 月 29 日│中国香港/美国 K12 教育 优化组织架构，有望助力运营提效 据业绩会，公司计划在 2026 财年结束前（即 2026 年 5 月底前），将其留 学咨询和留学考培业务正式合并。我们认为在出国留学行业进入存量竞争的 大背景下，合并两大板块有望精简服务链条，强化规模效应，提升运营效率， 同时通过合并管理团队、教师、营销及行政人员等降低成本。 维持"买入"评级 考虑到 K12 收入提速、降本增效及汇率顺风的影响，我们略微上调 FY26/27/28 non-GAAP 归母净利润至 5.78/6.81/7.56 亿美元（前值： 5.62/6.48/7.07 亿美元）。可比公司彭博一致预期均值 15.47x FY26 PE， 考虑到公司核心业务盈利稳健性及股东回报行业领先，给予公司 18x FY26 PE，得到目标价 65.43 美元/51.39 港元（前值：67.31 美元/52.66 港元，基 于集团整体 non-GAAP 归母净利润 19.06x FY26 PE），维持"买入"。 风 ...

证券研究报告 特变电工 (600089 CH) 多业务板块景气共振开启价值重估 2026 年 1 月 29 日│中国内地 首次覆盖特变电工公司并给予"买入"评级，目标价 33.31 元，对应 26 年 PE 22X。我们认为公司 26 年多业务板块步入景气上行阶段，输变电业务有 望充分受益于全球高压设备紧缺外溢实现加速出海；黄金业务量价齐升；煤 炭、多晶硅拐点齐现，我们预计公司 26-27 年具备较强的向上盈利弹性。 输变电：出海有望加速突破，国内主网周期向上 公司是国内民营主变龙头，是国内少数具备"高压电缆+附件+施工"一体 化集成服务能力的企业。海外方面，全球高压电力设备持续紧缺，AIDC 进 一步放大供需缺口，国内高压电力设备企业拥抱出海新时代。公司海外订单 高速增长，23 年、24 年、25H1 公司国际市场产品分别实现签约超 7 亿美 元、超 12 亿美元、11.20 亿美元，25H1 同比增长 65.9%；截至 25H1，公 司输变电国际成套项目在手合同金额超 50 亿美元。25 年 8 月斩获沙特约 164 亿元框架标。伴随海外高盈利市场收入占比提升与供给紧张下产品价格 有望进一步推升，公司变压 ...

证券研究报告 特变电工 (600089 CH) 3）"绿金"：我们认为公司多晶硅业务可凭产线升级降本增效+自备电厂带 动的低现金成本穿越周期。我们测算公司 25H1 现金成本或迎约 18%的降 本，当前约 3 万元/吨的现金成本下已经在现金层面扭亏，贴近行业第一梯 队的现金成本带来现金流韧性。我们看好公司有望随行业价格修复和硅料产 能集中趋势下迎来开工率修复，进而摆脱折旧压制以兑现业绩弹性。 多业务板块景气共振开启价值重估 2026 年 1 月 29 日│中国内地 首次覆盖特变电工公司并给予"买入"评级，目标价 33.31 元，对应 26 年 PE 22X。我们认为公司 26 年多业务板块步入景气上行阶段，输变电业务有 望充分受益于全球高压设备紧缺外溢实现加速出海；黄金业务量价齐升；煤 炭、多晶硅拐点齐现，我们预计公司 26-27 年具备较强的向上盈利弹性。 输变电：出海有望加速突破，国内主网周期向上 公司是国内民营主变龙头，是国内少数具备"高压电缆+附件+施工"一体 化集成服务能力的企业。海外方面，全球高压电力设备持续紧缺，AIDC 进 一步放大供需缺口，国内高压电力设备企业拥抱出海新时代。公司海外订单 高 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 33.34 [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 240 to 290 million in 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year. 2025 is viewed as a critical year for the company's strategic reform, focusing on core brands, brand building, online presence, and efficiency [1][6]. - The company has successfully developed three major products that have generated over RMB 100 million in sales each, demonstrating the effectiveness of its strategy combining category breakthroughs, major product cultivation, and marketing innovation [1][8]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now projecting revenues of RMB 6.407 billion, RMB 7.379 billion, and RMB 8.219 billion respectively, reflecting increases of 12.84%, 15.16%, and 11.38% [10]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to have a net profit of RMB 273.22 million in 2025, with an expected EPS of RMB 0.41. This is a significant recovery from a loss of RMB 833.09 million in 2024 [5][10]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -12.45% in 2024 to 3.93% in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][10]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from -17.32 in 2024 to 52.80 in 2025, reflecting a shift towards profitability [5][10]. Market Performance - The company's stock closed at RMB 21.46 as of January 28, with a market capitalization of RMB 14.426 billion. The stock has traded within a range of RMB 15.60 to RMB 28.92 over the past 52 weeks [2]. - The company has seen significant growth in its online sales channels, with notable performances on platforms like Douyin and Taobao, indicating strong brand momentum [7][9].

证券研究报告 公用环保 碳价与绿证市场预期升温 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 28 日│中国内地 动态点评 王玮嘉 研究员 SAC No. S0570517050002 SFC No. BEB090 wangweijia@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2079 黄波 研究员 SAC No. S0570519090003 SFC No. BQR122 李雅琳 研究员 liyalin018092@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 SAC No. S0570523050003 SFC No. BTC420 SAC No. S0570124070105 kangqi@htsc.com 康琪* 联系人 +(86) 10 6321 1166 行业走势图 (6) 4 13 23 32 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 (%) 公用事业 环保 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 重点推荐 | | | 目标价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 股票代码 | (当地币种) | 投资评级 | | 瀚蓝环境 | 60032 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 19.82 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company has successfully licensed its TL1A/IL-23p19 dual antibody SIM0709 to Boehringer Ingelheim for an upfront payment of €42 million and a total deal value of €1.058 billion, indicating strong validation of its innovative research and development capabilities [1]. - The company has seen recognition from major multinational corporations (MNCs) such as AbbVie, BI, and Ipsen for its innovative pipeline, with four projects launched overseas since 2025 [1]. - The global market for Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) is projected to reach USD 28 billion by 2028, with the TL1A target showing significant potential for treatment [2]. - SIM0709 is designed as a long-acting dual antibody with a potential dosing interval of three months, which could position it favorably in the competitive landscape for IBD treatments [3]. - Boehringer Ingelheim's established global development capabilities are expected to significantly support the global expansion of SIM0709, as it is a key player in the autoimmune disease treatment space [4]. - The company is advancing its innovative platforms, including TCE and ADC, with ongoing clinical trials and collaborations that are expected to yield data within the year [5]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of RMB 1.18 billion, RMB 1.40 billion, and RMB 1.52 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% [6][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are projected at RMB 0.45, RMB 0.54, and RMB 0.59 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][12]. - The company maintains a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 33.19x for 2026, supporting the target price of HKD 19.82 [6][12].

Group 1: Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve maintained the policy interest rate at 3.5-3.75% during the January FOMC meeting, expressing a more optimistic outlook on the economy and job market [2] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both rose over 2.5%, with the Hang Seng Index surpassing 27,800 points, marking a new high since 2021 [2] - The report suggests that the first quarter may be a critical period for the Hong Kong stock market, with potential for further growth driven by liquidity, capital, and earnings [2] Group 2: Utility and Environmental Sector - The carbon pricing market is expected to stabilize after a decline in 2025, with projections indicating a price of 150-200 RMB/ton by 2030 [4] - Companies in the green electricity and environmental sectors, such as Longyuan Power and China Everbright Environment, are expected to benefit from the rising carbon costs and green certificate revenues [4] - Potential catalysts for growth include the introduction of policies linking green certificates to carbon quotas and the expansion of the carbon market [4] Group 3: Key Companies - Disco Corporation is positioned to benefit from the new AI chip generation, with a target price of 79,000 JPY, reflecting a 48x FY26E PE [5] - Xiansheng Pharmaceutical has successfully licensed its dual antibody SIM0709 to Boehringer Ingelheim, validating its innovation system and maintaining a "buy" rating [6] - Industrial Fulian expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with projections of 35.1-35.7 billion RMB, driven by the launch of new products and vertical integration advantages [8] - Anta Sports is set to acquire a 29.06% stake in PUMA for approximately 1.506 billion euros, enhancing its global brand portfolio and market presence [8] - Jingwei Hengrun anticipates a turnaround in profitability for 2025, projecting a net profit of 0.75-1.1 billion RMB, supported by scale effects [11] - Ruya Chen expects continued high growth in its self-owned brand business, with a projected net profit of 176-200 million RMB for 2025 [12] - Wancheng Group is expected to improve same-store performance and maintain a rapid store opening pace, supported by supply chain efficiency [13] - Ugreen Technology is focusing on AI and NAS integration, with a projected net profit of 653-733 million RMB for 2025 [14]