证券研究报告 基础材料 关税扰动下有色或偏弱，金价或偏强 华泰研究 2025 年 4 月 06 日│中国内地 行业周报（第十四周） 本周观点：关税扰动下基本金属或偏弱，贵金属仍有上行空间 上周美国公布对等关税政策，超市场预期，市场交易美国衰退，导致基本金 属下跌较多，贵金属受流动性挤兑导致下跌。基本金属方面，关税博弈下， 全球衰退预期向上，我们预计铜铝价格或均延续偏弱。贵金属方面，关税博 弈或加深美国再通胀或经济衰退的可能，两种路径下，金价或仍然有较大上 行空间。锂方面，根据 SMM 周度库存样本数据，国内库存数据累库，矿端 价格延续下跌，我们认为碳酸锂价格或偏弱震荡。 重点公司及动态 关税博弈下，黄金仍有上行空间，建议配置行业龙头山东黄金（H 股） 重点推荐 | | | 目标价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 股票代码 | (当地币种) | 投资评级 | | 山东黄金 | 1787 HK | 20.65 | 增持 | | 资料来源：华泰研究预测 | | | | 一周内行业走势图 一周行业内各子板块涨跌图 (4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 275.50 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.945 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 38.03%, but a net profit of 1.977 billion RMB, down 3.64% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a revenue increase of 66.54% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 26.99% [1][2]. - The domestic "trade-in" policy and overseas market expansion contributed to strong revenue growth, although profitability was impacted by intensified competition in Europe and increased tariff costs in North America. The net profit margin is expected to stabilize in 2025, despite ongoing tariff risks from the U.S. [1][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Domestic sales revenue for 2024 is projected at 5.53 billion RMB, up 25.4% year-on-year, driven by the "trade-in" policy. Online sales of floor cleaning machines in Q4 increased by 87% year-on-year [2]. - Foreign sales revenue is expected to reach 6.34 billion RMB, a 51.1% increase year-on-year, due to the introduction of more cost-effective models. However, overseas gross margin decreased by 6.74 percentage points due to price competition and tariff costs [2][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s comprehensive gross margin for 2024 is estimated at 50.1%, down 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower margins from new product lines and increased marketing expenses [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 2.035 billion RMB, 2.321 billion RMB, and 2.828 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 11.02 RMB, 12.57 RMB, and 15.31 RMB [4][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is transitioning its overseas channels to a "self-operated + distribution" model, successfully entering 1,398 Target and 900 Best Buy stores by the end of 2024. This expansion is expected to enhance growth potential in overseas markets in 2025 [2][3]. - The company’s global expansion strategy is showing results, with a projected average PE of 22x for comparable companies in 2025, while the company itself is given a PE of 25x, reflecting strong product capabilities [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 11.97 RMB [6][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.559 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.01%, and a net profit of 115 million RMB, up 14.92% year-on-year, slightly below the consensus forecast of 120 million RMB [1][5]. - The hospital business is expanding steadily, driven by the strengths of Sichuan Friendship Hospital in oncology and the acquisition of a 51% stake in Changsha Kexin Tumor Hospital for 357 million RMB, which will enhance the company's oncology business layout [1][2]. - The medical device segment is focusing on high-end and international strategies, with a revenue of 367 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase [4]. Summary by Sections Hospital Business - The hospital business generated 1.19 billion RMB in 2024, growing by 3.76% year-on-year, primarily due to stable revenue growth from Sichuan Friendship Hospital's oncology services [2]. - Sichuan Friendship Hospital achieved a revenue of 579 million RMB in 2024, up 10% year-on-year, with expectations for continued growth in 2025 [2]. - The acquisition of Changsha Kexin Tumor Hospital is expected to boost revenue, with the hospital generating 273 million RMB in revenue and a net profit of 33.43 million RMB in the first nine months of 2024 [2]. Medical Devices - The medical device segment's revenue reached 367 million RMB in 2024, driven by high-end product upgrades and breakthroughs in overseas markets [4]. - The company anticipates stable growth in this segment for 2025, supported by the recovery of Gamma Knife orders and the performance of Saint Nuo and Shenzhen Unimedic [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.19 RMB, 0.23 RMB, and 0.26 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price set at 11.97 RMB based on a 63x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 [5][6]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 1.933 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.95% [5].

寻找关税风波下的"避风港" 华泰研究 2025 年 4 月 06 日│中国内地 策略周报 证券研究报告 策略 行业上除红利外，关注一季报向好的景气品种 核心观点 清明节内全球大类资产表现受关税风波影响剧烈波动，海外中资股走势偏 弱，投资者风险偏好回落下，配置建议以稳为主，继续增大对大盘、红利因 子的暴露。行业配置上，一方面适当增加红利仓位，如银行、交运等，另一 方面，国内逆周期调节或加码，中期可逢低布局内需、自主可控、基建链， 以及出口链调整后的"纠偏"机会，如建材、白电、电新、军工电子等。 节内全球风险资产波动明显 节前特朗普政府"对等关税"初步落地，整体力度超出市场预期，节内全球 大类资产价格出现大幅波动，纳斯达克、标普 500 分别下跌 5.8%、6.0%， 海外中资股同样有所调整，纳斯达克中国金龙指数、富时 A50 中国期货分 别下跌 8.9%、2.9%，黄金、石油等大宗商品价格同样剧烈波动。关于后续 演绎，参考 2018-2019 年上一轮中美贸易摩擦期间，围绕关税的谈判或将 反复出现，贸易摩擦不乏有进一步提升的风险，节内包括我国在内多个经济 体宣称将出台反制措施，后续演绎路径的预测难度较高，但无论 ...

证券研究报告 策略 风浪之外，静水深流 华泰研究 | 策略周报 | | --- | | 06 日│中国内地 | | 2025 年 4 月 | 核心观点 特朗普超预期关税政策引发市场担忧，短期或影响港股市场表现。不过我们 认为，中期视角下港股相对收益空间仍存，原因是：1）基本面上，国内 3 月 PMI 连续两个月扩张、地产寻底迹象初现、政策逆周期调节存加码预期； 2）港股结构上，科技+金融主导的上市公司特征使其企业盈利对关税敏感 度相对较低；3）资金面上，南向资金持续流入为港股提供资金支撑。操作 上，建议配置：1）存在政策逆周期调节预期的内需消费板块；2）盈利预期 抬升明显、自主可控逻辑坚实的港股硬科技；3）南向持仓占比高、受外资 变动影响小、盈利预期稳定的红利方向，仍可作为底仓配置。 3 月 PMI 继续上行，国内经济韧性仍存 3 月份 PMI 为 50.5％，高于彭博一致预期的 50.4%，较上月上升 0.3 个百 分点，连续 2 个月运行在扩张区间，分项中呈现生产强，价格弱，行业"新 旧"分化加剧的态势，生产指数和新订单指数分别为 52.6%和 51.8%，较 上月上升 0.1 和 0.7 个百分点，扩张 ...

2025 年 4 月 04 日│中国内地 动态点评 关税落地，与预期有何异同？ 华泰研究 25%关税符合预期，间接促进其他地区双边合作 4 月 3 日，美国宣布对进口汽车征收 25%的关税。关税政策基本符合市场预 期，与 2 月相比，本轮政策的主要差异点是：满足《美墨加协议》（USMCA） 的关税豁免政策延续。同日，中欧双方同意尽快重启电动车反补贴案价格的 承诺谈判，为产业投资和合作营造良好的环境。我们认为 25%的汽车关税 对于国内直接出口的负面影响较小（24 年出口美国仅约 11.6 万辆），其主要 影响日本、韩国、德国等国家的头部车企的预期收入和盈利。本轮政策相对 利好满足 USMCA 条例的北美生产企业，并将间接促进中国和其他国家和地 区的合作，中国车企或在欧盟、东南亚等地区获得更多增量。 乘用车：25%关税对中国车企出口美国影响有限，日韩德车企承压 证券研究报告 汽车 24 年中国整车出口美国约 11.6 万辆，加征关税对中国车企影响有限。美国 市场长期以来是日韩德车企的核心销售和出口市场，虽然头部车企已在美本 地化生产，但仍有部分直接出口，该业务将受到 25%整车关税的直接影响 （美系和日韩系经济 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 28.5 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.34%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.196 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.07% year-on-year. The net profit for Q4 was 681 million RMB, an increase of 8.08% year-on-year. The proposed dividend is 0.42 RMB per share, maintaining a dividend yield of 4.0% [1][2][3] - The company’s toll revenue decreased by 6% in 2024, with a gross profit margin decline of 9%. The traffic volume increased by 3%, but the toll revenue was negatively impacted by factors such as insufficient freight demand and policy exemptions [2][3] - Investment income increased by 2.3% to 1.4 billion RMB, contributing 26% to pre-tax profit. The information group saw a net profit increase of 17.89%, while the rail transit group experienced a decline in net profit [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 28.5 billion RMB and a net profit of 3.196 billion RMB. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.55 RMB, with a return on equity (ROE) of 10.73% [6][20] - The company expects net profits of 3.483 billion RMB and 3.766 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a target price adjustment to 12.02 RMB based on a 19.7x 2025 PE ratio [4][12] Business Segments - The main highway business faced challenges with a 6% decline in toll revenue, attributed to increased exemptions and competition from parallel roads. The freight segment remains sensitive to macroeconomic conditions [2][3] - The investment segment showed resilience with a 2.3% increase in investment income, while the rail transit segment's profit declined by 3.6% [3][4] Valuation - The target price of 12.02 RMB reflects a premium based on the company's high dividend yield compared to peers. The previous target price was 9.41 RMB [4][12]

电力设备与新能源 周观点：宁德推动换电基建，看好换 电设备环节 华泰研究 2025 年 4 月 05 日│中国内地 行业周报（第十四周） 证券研究报告 周观点：宁德推动换电基建建设，看好换电设备环节先行 据宁德时代 4 月 2 日官微消息，宁德时代与中国石化在北京签署合作框架 协议，双方将共同建设覆盖全国的换电生态网络，今年将建设不少于 500 座换电站，长期目标是扩展至 10000 座。双方将基于宁德时代推出的巧克 力换电、骐骥底盘换电解决方案，携手突破乘用车及重卡续航瓶颈，打造更 加高效、便捷、经济的补能网络。电池厂（宁德时代）与能源运营商（中国 石化）此次携手合作换电站建设落地，我们认为换电设备环节将优先受益， 建议关注换电车型销量及核心城市布站的进度。 子行业观点 1）新能源车：宁德推动换电基建建设，看好换电设备环节先行；2）储能： 对等关税方案出台，注意贸易政策风险；3）光伏：中办、国办首次发布《关 于完善价格治理机制的意见》；4）风电：广东、浙江发布重点建设清单， 海风项目超 15GW。 重点公司及动态 1）宁德时代：电池龙头地位稳固，持续扩大业务版图；2）富临精工：高 压密铁锂龙头，扩大机器人业 ...

证券研究报告 金工 近期延续超额，AI 推荐红利主题 华泰研究 2025 年 4 月 05 日│中国内地 量化投资周报 AI 主题指数轮动模型：下周推荐中证红利、上证金融等 AI 主题指数轮动模型使用全频段量价融合因子对 133 个概念指数打分并构 建周频调仓策略，每周选取 10 个主题指数等权配置。模型 2018 年初回测 以来年化收益率为 16.32%，相对等权基准年化超额收益率为 13.09%，今 年以来超额 7.11%。截至 2025 年 4 月 3 日，模型未来一周将推荐持有中证 红利、上证金融、深证红利、央视 50 等指数。 AI 行业轮动模型：下周推荐银行、石油石化等 AI 行业轮动模型使用全频段量价融合因子对 32 个一级行业打分并构建周频 调仓策略，每周选取 5 个行业等权配置。模型 2017 年初回测以来年化收益 率为 25.39%，相对等权基准年化超额收益率为 21.27%。截至 2025 年 4 月 3 日，模型未来一周将持有银行、石油石化、交通运输、工业金属、家电 5 个行业。 全频段融合因子今年以来相对全 A 等权超额 7.87% 截至 2025 年 4 月 3 日，全频段融合因子 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 概览：3 月美国新增非农就业 22.8 万，明显高于彭博一致预期的 14 万，但 之前 2 个月累计下修 4.8 万。往前看，由于关税阴云可能拖累未来的新增非 农就业，因而市场并未因此降低对美国滞涨/衰退的担忧。 3 月失业率回升 0.1pp 至 4.2%，高于预期的 4.1%；小时工资增速环比 0.3%。此外，劳动 参与率 62.5%，高于预期和前值的 62.4%。此外， 2 月回落较大的政府部 门就业明显回升，而零售、休闲酒店在天气影响消退后亦有回暖。4 月 2 日 特朗普提出或近百来年最高关税，若长期生效，则美国衰退概率或将过半（参 见《特朗普提出百年未见高关税》，2025/4/3）。市场担忧未来非农会因为关 税冲击而明显放缓，所以数据发布后，市场定价的 2025 年累计降息幅度维 持在 4 次左右；美元指数小幅反弹但总体回升动力较弱。 3 月新增非农数据反弹，主要是因为年初以来因寒冷天气走弱的零售业与休 闲酒店反弹以及政府部门就业开始有所恢复。1-2 月偏冷天气影响消退，3 月零售业、休闲酒店业分别环比回升 2.6 万人、6 万人；政府部门新增就业 环比回升 1.8 万人，其中，联 ...