Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the revaluation of strategic minerals and the investment opportunities in cyclical metals for 2025, driven by global political and economic uncertainties [3][4] - The cyclical style is expected to trend upwards in 2025, with a focus on strategic mineral resource revaluation and cyclical metals [3][4] - The report highlights the importance of supply chain security and the impact of geopolitical tensions on metal prices, particularly for rare earths and small metals [3][4] Summary by Sections 2024 Review - The global political and economic landscape has become increasingly volatile, with significant risks from geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruptions [11] - The SW non-ferrous metal index showed an upward trend, with basic and precious metals performing well in the first three quarters of 2024 [11] - The report notes a divergence within the non-ferrous sector, with industrial metals experiencing two rounds of price increases and subsequent corrections [11][12] 2025 Outlook - The cyclical style is expected to improve, with strategic minerals being a key focus due to supply chain security concerns [3][4] - Strategic minerals such as rare earths, tungsten, tin, antimony, uranium, germanium, zirconium, and gallium are highlighted for their potential value revaluation [3][4] - The report anticipates a favorable environment for cyclical metals, with expected monetary easing in the US and China benefiting upstream industrial metal prices [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Jincheng Mining, Shenhuo Co., and China Hongqiao for industrial metals; Huayou Cobalt, Tianqi Lithium, and Yongxing Materials for energy metals; and Chifeng Jilong Gold and Zhaojin Mining for precious metals [5]

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [4] Core Views - Existing school utilization is improving, driving profit growth, while the light-asset model for expansion is expected to drive growth beyond expectations [3] - The market underestimates the company's endogenous growth potential, with the current utilization rate of existing schools at 50%, and the potential to accommodate 160,000 students, driving a CAGR of over 23% in revenue from 2024 to 2027 [3] - The company's high school business is expected to see a 10% improvement in expense ratio from 2024 to 2027, leading to a CAGR of over 28% in adjusted profits [3] - The light-asset model, including托管 (trusteeship) services, is expected to drive rapid expansion, with the potential to contribute an additional revenue of 27 billion yuan in the long term [3] Company Overview - Tianli International Holdings is a leading private education company in China, focusing on K12 education with a strong emphasis on academic performance [22] - The company operates 58 schools across 18 provinces, with a mature school network achieving over 55% first-tier university admission rates and 90% undergraduate admission rates [3] - The company has a stable ownership structure, with the founder holding 43% of the shares, and has been actively repurchasing shares since July 2023, demonstrating confidence in future growth [28] - The company has successfully transitioned its business model post-policy changes, focusing on profitable high schools and expanding into comprehensive素养 (quality education) services,游学研学 (study tours), and托管 (trusteeship) services [38] Industry Analysis - Private education serves as an important supplement to public education, especially in the high school segment, where public财政 (fiscal) resources are limited [49] - The政策 (policy) encourages the expansion of优质 (high-quality) high school education, with民办 (private) high schools playing a significant role in补充 (supplementing) public resources [74] - The民办 high school sector has seen rapid growth, with the number of students in民办 high schools increasing at a CAGR of 10% from 2019 to 2023, and the market share rising from 9% in 2010 to 20% in 2023 [74] - The适龄 (school-age) population for high schools is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.2% from 2023 to 2030, with the入学率 (enrollment rate) for普通 (regular) high schools expected to increase, providing opportunities for民办 high schools [78] Business Strategy - The company has adopted a "一干多支" (one trunk, multiple branches) strategy, focusing on profitable high schools as the core business while expanding into multiple ancillary services [82] - The high school segment has shown strong growth, with the number of high school students increasing by 47% in the 2024-2025 academic year, driven by excellent academic performance [84] - The company has developed a comprehensive curriculum and teacher training system, ensuring high-quality education delivery and supporting future growth [90] - The company is expanding its多元 (diverse)升学 (college entrance) services, including艺术 (art),国际 (international), and复读 (repeater) programs, to meet the diverse needs of students [108] Financial Performance - The company's revenue and profit have shown strong growth, with FY2024 revenue increasing by 44% and profit by 66% [38] - The company's毛利率 (gross margin) has stabilized at around 34%, with the净利润率 (net profit margin) recovering to 17% in FY2024 [47] - The company's托管 (trusteeship)业务 (business) is expected to become a second growth curve, with the potential to contribute significantly to future revenue [127]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - Meituan's revenue for Q3 2024 increased by 22.4% year-on-year to 93.577 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 1.73%. The core business and new business revenues were 69.373 billion yuan and 24.204 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 20.25% and 28.91%. Operating profit surged by 307.5% to 13.685 billion yuan, also surpassing expectations by 41.04%. Adjusted net profit rose by 124.0% to 12.829 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 10.07% [1][2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 sales expenses increased by 6.20% year-on-year to 17.953 billion yuan, driven by higher advertising, user incentives, and employee compensation. The sales expense ratio decreased by 2.92 percentage points to 19.19% due to improved marketing efficiency. R&D expenses decreased by 0.52% to 5.293 billion yuan, with a R&D expense ratio of 5.66%, down 1.3 percentage points. Management expenses rose by 10.24% to 2.798 billion yuan, primarily due to increased compensation and taxes related to business growth, with a management expense ratio of 2.99%, down 0.33 percentage points [2]. Core Local Business - The core local business revenue grew by 20.2% to 69.373 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg expectations by 1.52%. Operating profit increased by 44.44% to 14.582 billion yuan, surpassing expectations by 13.69%, with an operating profit margin of 21.02%, up 3.52 percentage points. The order volume for the delivery business increased by 14.5% to 7.078 billion orders [2][3]. New Business Development - New business revenue grew by 28.91% to 24.204 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 3.90%. Operating loss narrowed by 79.93% to -1.026 billion yuan, better than expectations by 42.41%, with an operating profit margin of -4.24%, up 22.99 percentage points. The Meituan Preferred business saw a reduction in losses due to efficiency improvements and healthy growth [4][10]. Future Projections - Meituan is expected to achieve revenues of 336.898 billion yuan, 389.849 billion yuan, and 446.912 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.74%, 15.72%, and 14.64%. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 41.737 billion yuan, 53.882 billion yuan, and 67.344 billion yuan, with growth rates of 79.49%, 29.10%, and 24.98%, respectively [10][12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [2] Core Insights - The beauty and personal care market in China is transitioning from a period of high growth to a more mature competitive landscape, with international brands dominating the high-end market while domestic brands focus on high cost-performance [3] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the Chinese beauty market decreased from 11% (2015-2019) to 3% (2019-2023), with the market size reaching 548 billion yuan [3][12] - Domestic brands hold 13.5% market share in the top 20 skincare brands, while international brands hold 33% [3][43] - The online sales channel is growing rapidly, with a CAGR of 20% from 2013 to 2023, while offline sales are growing at 3% [3] Summary by Sections Business Model: Skincare vs. Makeup / Domestic vs. International / High-end vs. Mass Market / E-commerce vs. Offline - The market is characterized by a clear distinction between skincare and makeup, with domestic brands primarily focusing on cost-effective products [3] - High-end makeup brands are predominantly international, while domestic brands are making inroads into the mass market [3] Company Achievements: Insights from Mao Geping - Mao Geping has maintained a revenue CAGR of approximately 30-40%, with profit margins significantly higher than the industry average [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.89 billion yuan and a net profit of 660 million yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a 41% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2024 [4] Why Mao Geping is Difficult to Replicate - Mao Geping's success is attributed to strong brand IP, effective channel segmentation, and excellent offline makeup service experiences [5] - The revenue breakdown for the first half of 2024 shows 55% from makeup, 41% from skincare, and 4% from makeup training, indicating a diversified product strategy [5] Comparison: Domestic Makeup Brands - Mao Geping stands out among domestic brands like Perfect Diary and Huaxizi, which focus on specific product lines, while Mao Geping successfully integrates both makeup and skincare [5][36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [8] Core Views - The risk associated with the company's debt to Jiangsu Delong will be officially resolved, with the debt transfer occurring at its book value of 8.974 billion yuan, eliminating the need for further impairment [2] - The company has received approval for a private placement to raise 3.219 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing liquidity and reducing financial risks, while strategic partnerships with China Merchants Group and Shandong Port Group are expected to create synergies [3] - The company is increasing its shipbuilding capacity, with a strong order backlog extending to 2029, and the price of its flagship Supramax vessels has risen by 29% since 2021, indicating potential for accelerated profit release due to lower steel costs [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 447.5 billion, 512.8 billion, and 605.6 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.135 billion, 2.203 billion, and 2.514 billion yuan, leading to EPS of 0.51, 0.99, and 1.13 yuan [5] - Using a segment valuation approach, the bulk supply chain business is expected to generate a profit of 1.63 billion yuan in 2025, valued at 13 billion yuan based on an 8x PE ratio, while the shipbuilding segment is projected to contribute 570 million yuan in net profit, valued at 8.6 billion yuan based on a 15x PE ratio, resulting in a total valuation of 21.6 billion yuan for the company [5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the oil service industry as "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil service industry is driven by both oil prices and energy security, indicating a sustained positive outlook [3] - The competitive landscape is characterized by an oligopoly in both global and Chinese markets, with a stable competitive structure in China [4] - The outlook for 2025 suggests that the return of Trump may benefit U.S. oil service exporters [5] Summary by Sections 2024 Oil Service Industry Review - The oil service industry's revenue growth is expected to slow down in 2024 compared to 2023 due to the lagging response to oil price fluctuations [10] Oil Price Fluctuations and Energy Security - Oil prices are currently at historical mid-high levels, with expectations of volatility. The Brent crude oil price was $71.1 on November 15, 2024, down 6.6% from the beginning of the year [6] - Global oil and gas capital expenditures are projected to increase, benefiting oil service companies, with expected expenditures of $603 billion, $663 billion, and $683 billion for 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth of 4.5%, 10%, and 3.2% respectively [6] - China's oil service market is projected to reach ¥2,494 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 4% from 2023 to 2030 [6] Competitive Landscape - The Chinese market is dominated by state-owned enterprises under the "Three Barrel Oil" group, which holds an 85% market share, while private enterprises account for 10% [7] - Globally, the top three companies dominate the market, with the top five firms holding approximately 28% market share [7] Investment Recommendations - Focus on offshore oil services and overseas oil services, with key recommendations including Jerry Holdings, CNOOC Services, and others [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [4][7]. Core Insights - The demand for large-item transportation is expected to recover, driven by the government's policies promoting the replacement of old appliances, which have shown significant effects on sales [1]. - The collaboration with JD Logistics is progressing steadily, with plans to enhance cooperation in the home appliance and home improvement sectors, which is anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [2]. - Shareholder confidence is highlighted by JD Zhaofeng's plan to increase its stake in the company, indicating strong support from major stakeholders [3]. Summary by Sections Demand Recovery - The government has implemented policies to support the replacement of old appliances, with subsidies ranging from 15% to 20% for eligible products, leading to a notable increase in sales [1]. - As of November 8, 2024, over 20.25 million consumers purchased 30.45 million units of major appliances, generating sales of 137.79 billion yuan [1]. Strategic Partnerships - Since JD Logistics' acquisition of the company in September 2022, the partnership has been advancing, with plans to acquire assets from JD Logistics to enhance operational efficiency [2]. - The company aims to focus on increasing revenue and volume in the second half of 2024, supported by refined internal management to improve cost efficiency [2]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to see a recovery in performance, with projected net profits of 862 million yuan in 2024, 1.065 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.287 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 15.61%, 23.51%, and 20.90% respectively [4][6]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 17.6, 14.3, and 11.8, indicating an attractive valuation [4][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1][38]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the fundamental contradictions in the steel industry are limited, suggesting a positive outlook for equity performance [1]. - As of November 29, 2024, the SW Steel Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 2.12%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 have increased by 11.82% and 14.15%, respectively [2]. - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 787 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.24% and a year-to-date decrease of 11.15% [4]. - The report highlights that the iron ore port inventory stands at 15,050.9 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.77% but a year-to-date increase of 25.54% [4]. Price Summary - The report provides various price data, including: - Rebar (HRB400 20mm) at 3,470 yuan/ton, with a year-to-date decrease of 12.81% [2]. - Hot-rolled coil at 3,500 yuan/ton, down 14.00% year-to-date [2]. - Iron ore price index at 104.4 USD/ton, down 25.69% year-to-date [2]. Supply and Demand - The report notes that the weekly output of five major steel products is tracked, with specific data not provided in the excerpts [9]. - The average daily molten iron production is also monitored, indicating ongoing production levels [10]. Profitability Metrics - The report includes profit calculations for steel products, indicating fluctuations in profitability for rebar and hot-rolled products [28][29].

Investment Rating - The report rates the liquor industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently in a transition phase between old and new cycles, resembling the characteristics of 2018-2019 rather than 2012-2015. The industry is expected to avoid annual negative growth [5][16] - Key indicators for observing changes in the liquor industry include the pricing of Moutai and the sales performance of Wuliangye. These indicators are crucial for assessing the industry's overall health [5][34] - Liquor companies with strong brands, healthy inventory, and reasonable growth targets are likely to navigate through the cycle more effectively [5][38] Summary by Sections Industry Review - The current phase is characterized by a transition between cycles, with the industry closer to the 2018-2019 phase, which involved short-term adjustments and growth rate changes. The industry is not expected to experience annual negative growth [5][16] - The economic environment shows signs of improvement, with retail and real estate data indicating a positive trend, which is beneficial for the liquor sector [6] - The industry is undergoing a de-stocking phase, with companies that actively manage their inventory and have strong channel control likely to fare better [6] Investment Recommendations - The upcoming Spring Festival in 2025 is seen as a critical test for the industry, with expectations that Moutai prices will not reach new lows. The report anticipates a structural bull market in liquor driven by policy catalysts [7][8] - Two main investment lines are recommended: companies with high momentum and those benefiting from low base recovery. High-end liquor brands such as Wuliangye and Moutai are highlighted for their strong performance [8][7] - Companies should focus on capturing market share in specific price segments and maintaining strategic focus during the adjustment period [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [6] Core Insights - The report discusses the opportunities and challenges for China's commercial health insurance by comparing it with Japan's mature insurance market, which has developed over 140 years and is the fourth largest in the world by premium volume [3][32] - Japan's medical insurance system is characterized by low personal burden and a comprehensive coverage model, while China's commercial health insurance remains limited in its supplementary role [3][4] - Recent policy initiatives from China's National Healthcare Security Administration aim to accelerate the development of commercial health insurance, potentially enhancing its role in medical payments and supporting the innovative drug and medical device sectors [3][4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Opportunities and Challenges in Commercial Health Insurance - Japan's insurance market is highly developed, with a total premium income of 52.5 trillion yen in 2023, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.1% [3][33] - Japan's insurance depth and density are significantly higher than the global average, indicating a robust market compared to China's [3][33] - China's commercial health insurance is expected to benefit from policy support, particularly in the context of innovative drugs and medical devices [3][4] Section 2: Policy Tracking - Recent policies from the National Health Commission aim to improve medical service continuity and efficiency, which may lead to short-term impacts on testing-related industries but long-term savings in healthcare costs [4] - The 2024 National Medical Insurance Drug List has seen a record number of innovative drugs added, reflecting a supportive policy environment for innovation in the pharmaceutical sector [4] Section 3: Market Review - The pharmaceutical index increased by 2.99% in the week of November 25-29, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.67 percentage points [5][8] - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector has rebounded, with a current PE ratio of 27.81, indicating a relative premium over the CSI 300 index [8] - Sub-sectors such as chemical preparations and traditional Chinese medicine saw significant gains, with the chemical preparation sector leading with a 4.8% increase [8] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong brand power and control over downstream channels, such as Dong-E E-Jiao and Tong Ren Tang [10] - It highlights the potential of innovative drug companies benefiting from supportive policies and international competitiveness, recommending firms like Dizhi Pharmaceutical and Zai Lab [10] - The report also emphasizes the growth potential in the raw material drug sector, suggesting companies like Xianju Pharmaceutical and Puluo Pharmaceutical [10]