证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 8 月 PMI：新动能或主要支撑经济修复 —2025 年 8 月 PMI 数据解读 核心观点 8 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.4%，较 7 月回升 0.1 个百分点，说明 经济维持修复态势，经济的主要支撑来自政策组合拳协同共振，内生动能尚 有一定改善空间。从结构上看，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界 点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点，说明制造业 有效需求依然承压，供给侧的韧性主要来自工业稳增长政策效能释放。我们 认为，前期的"两重"和"两新"等政策稳步发力，新近推出的财政贴息、加 强全国碳市场建设、金融支持新型工业化、"人工智能+"行动等政策也更多 支撑新动能。 从重点行业来看，新动能加快扩张，传统产业边际改善。8 月高技术制造业和 装备制造业 PMI 分别为 51.9%和 50.5%，比上月上升 1.3 和 0.2 个百分点， 支撑引领作用持续增强；消费品行业 PMI 为 49.2%，比上月下降 0.3 个百分 点；高耗能行业 PMI 为 48.2%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，景气水平连续回 升。 大类资产方面，我们认 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 小金属 中矿资源(002738) 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 31 日 铜冶炼拖累业绩，铜矿业务稳步推进 ——中矿资源中报点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 公司发布 2025 半年报。2025H1 公司实现营收 32.7 亿元，同比+34.9%，归母净 利 0.9 亿元，同比-81.2%，扣非归母净利 0.1 亿元，同比-98.3%。单季度看， 25Q2 营收 17.3 亿元，同比+33.6%，环比+12.6%，归母净利-0.5 亿元，扣非归 母净利-0.4 亿元。 ❑ 铯铷业务收入与毛利保持高速增长 新能源汽车销量不及预期， 公司项目推进不及预期，锂价大幅波动。 2025H1 铯铷板块营业收入 7.1 亿元，同比增加 50.4%，毛利 5.1 亿元，同比增加 50.2%；其中 25H1 铯铷精细化工营收 4.1 亿元，同比增加 24.9%，毛利 3.1 亿 元，同比增加 26.6%，甲酸铯营收 3.0 亿元，同比增加 107.6%，毛利 2.0 亿元， 同比增加 110.6%。随着全球科学技术的进步和对相关领域高品质需求的提升， 铯铷盐产品的应用空间和市场规模将进一步拓展。 ❑ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with revenue at 410 million yuan, down 34% year-on-year, and net profit at 16.99 million yuan, down 80% year-on-year, primarily due to the absence of EPC contracting business compared to the same period last year [1] - The company has made significant progress in its overseas strategy, particularly in the "Belt and Road" markets, signing two five-year supply contracts with a leading copper producer in Kazakhstan [1][2] - The company is enhancing its upstream copper and precious metals mining development, securing a 22.5% stake in Swiss company Virdis Resources, which will provide additional demand for its traditional mineral processing equipment and parts [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 410 million yuan, a 34% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 16.99 million yuan, an 80% decrease year-on-year [1] - Revenue breakdown by business segments includes: rubber wear-resistant products (290 million yuan, -3%), mining metal parts (58.05 million yuan, -3%), mineral processing equipment and parts (43.15 million yuan, -9%), and mining pipelines (15.26 million yuan, +5%) [1] Strategic Developments - The company has deepened its market presence in the "Belt and Road" region, with overseas revenue averaging 57% over the past five years and a CAGR of 30% [2] - The company is expanding into the upstream copper and precious metals sector, which is expected to drive demand for its mineral processing services [3] Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned as a leading private enterprise in mineral processing equipment, benefiting from overseas demand and product category expansion. Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 980 million, 1.28 billion, and 1.58 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -12%, 30%, and 24% respectively. Net profits are expected to be 90 million, 130 million, and 190 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of -26%, 48%, and 48% [5]

Group 1: Information Leverage - The rapid development of smartphones and social media enhances the speed of information dissemination, termed "information leverage," which amplifies individual investors' herd behavior[1] - The correlation coefficient between the Baidu search index for "bull market" and the Shanghai Composite Index is 0.33, indicating a positive relationship since 2011[3] - The Baidu search index for "account opening" has a correlation coefficient of 0.25 with the stock market, which is weaker than that of "bull market" but shows significant interest from individual investors[3] Group 2: Market Indicators - From September 2024 to July 2025, the monthly growth rate of new A-share accounts increased by 70.5%, indicating a strong trend of residents moving deposits into the stock market[4] - Cumulative net inflow into the stock market reached 744.85 billion yuan from February to May 2025, nearing the total for the entire year of 2024[4] - The financing buy-in ratio reached 11.6% of total trading volume on August 18, 2025, approaching the previous high of 11.9% in October 2024[4] Group 3: Fund Growth - Public funds saw a year-on-year growth of 57% for equity funds, 29% for bond funds, and 21% for money market funds in 2024, reflecting a shift in investment preferences[5] - The scale of private equity funds increased by 792.8 billion yuan in July 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 407.1%, indicating a strong inflow trend[5] - The total scale of private equity funds reached 5.9 trillion yuan by July 2025, showing a significant increase in high-net-worth client investments[5] Group 4: Risk Factors - Increased geopolitical and economic risks may lead investors to withdraw funds from the stock market to safer assets like gold and government bonds[8] - If foreign capital inflows into China's capital market are hindered, it could slow down the market's momentum and reduce the profit-making effect[8] - Structural adjustment policies may suppress residents' savings and investment sentiment, impacting market liquidity[8]

证券研究报告 | 公司更新 | 房地产开发 2） 城市更新领域门槛高，竞争少 城市更新尽管不是新事物，但是过往城市更新因粗放式发展和缺少法律法规 约束，一方面开展速度较慢，另一方面无序竞争加剧了供给过剩的问题。我们认 为，此次城市更新较以往会有明显不同，在"推动城市高质量发展"战略下，城市 更新的法律法规会更加完善，更合理的城市规划会有助于房产长期保值和增值。 招商蛇口(001979) 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 29 日 城市更新机遇带来长期 Alpha ——招商蛇口更新报告 投资要点 ❑ 一句话逻辑：城市更新战略推动有望带给招商蛇口长期 Alpha ❑ 超预期逻辑 1） 城市更新是房地产长期发展重要战略 2025 年 5 月 15 日《中共中央办公厅 国务院办公厅关于持续推进城市更新 行动的意见》正式印发。国务院新闻发布会明确房地产行业在增量转向存量的过 程中，"实施城市更新行动，就是要推进城市结构优化、功能完善、文脉赓续、 品质提升，推动城市高质量发展，同时，能够有效拉动投资和消费，扩大内需， 不断满足人民群众美好生活需要，对于促进经济增长、进一步保障和改善民生都 具有十分重要的意义。"同年，7 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The current bull market contains three ESG investment themes: improvement in corporate governance leading to valuation uplift, long-term opportunities from high-quality economic development and green transformation, and short-term supply optimization under energy transition [1][2][3] Summary by Sections 1. High-Quality Development of Capital Markets and Corporate Governance - Following the "New National Nine Articles," China's capital market has entered a phase of high-quality development, with regulatory guidance aimed at enhancing corporate governance to elevate A-share valuations [10][11] - The experience from Japan and South Korea indicates that improved corporate governance can significantly enhance market price-to-book ratios [11][14] - The report highlights the importance of institutional investors, particularly public funds, in actively participating in corporate governance to drive quality improvements in listed companies [10][21] 2. Long-Term Opportunities from Economic High-Quality Development and Green Low-Carbon Transition - The "Five Major Articles" are driving the financial sector's transformation, linking it with five ESG-value industries, which is expected to enhance asset quality and profitability [2][33] - The report emphasizes the role of technology in fostering new productive forces, particularly in sectors like AI and green computing, which are poised for significant growth [2][50] - Traditional industries are encouraged to undergo green transformation, integrating "new energy+" to enhance efficiency and sustainability [2][34] 3. Energy Transition: Short-Term Supply Optimization and Long-Term Structural Changes - The report identifies investment opportunities in the energy transition sector, particularly under the "dual carbon" policy framework, which aims to optimize supply in high-energy-consuming industries and promote structural changes in energy usage [3][35] - Short-term policies are expected to improve market dynamics in sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles, while long-term changes will reshape the entire energy supply chain [3][45] 4. Financial Sector Transformation - The financial sector is undergoing a shift from traditional profit models to comprehensive service models, driven by the "Five Major Articles," which require banks and insurance companies to adapt their product offerings and risk management strategies [45][46] - The report notes significant growth in green finance, with outstanding loans increasing from 8.23 trillion yuan in 2018 to 42.39 trillion yuan by mid-2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [35][38] 5. Digital Economy and Technological Innovation - The digital economy in China has grown from 39.2 trillion yuan in 2020 to 53.9 trillion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.2%, indicating a strong trend towards digital transformation [50][53] - The report forecasts that the digital transformation market will maintain a high growth rate of 15.6% annually from 2023 to 2028, highlighting the importance of technology in driving economic development [50][56]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.04 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 160 million yuan, up 4.3% [1] - The report highlights the successful expansion of new channels in China and the positive operational dynamics of the BF segment [1][2] - The company is actively seeking opportunities to divest its PC business, which is expected to significantly enhance performance flexibility if successful [11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.04 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 33.2% and a net margin of 6.7% [1] - The revenue breakdown for H1 2025 shows China, Europe, and the Americas contributing 8.2 billion, 3.6 billion, and 7.6 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.6%, +22.0%, and +4.3% [2] - The gross margin in H1 2025 increased by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous year, indicating stable profitability [4] Regional Performance - The Chinese market experienced a slight revenue decline in Q2 2025 due to order confirmation timing, but overall orders showed double-digit growth [2] - The Americas region maintained growth despite tariff disruptions, with a revenue increase of 7.4% in H1 2025 [3] - The European market outperformed expectations with a revenue growth of 22% in H1 2025, driven by the introduction of standardized products [3] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027 to be 46.4 billion, 52.5 billion, and 59.2 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 3.5 billion, 4.7 billion, and 5.4 billion yuan [11] - The report anticipates a recovery trend in the Chinese market, supported by a low base effect [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jichuan Pharmaceutical is maintained as "Buy" [1][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to reach an inflection point in performance, supported by high dividends and business development catalysts [1]. - The first half of 2025 saw a significant decline in revenue and net profit due to high base effects from the flu market and price reductions from centralized procurement [7]. - The company has effectively controlled marketing expenses, leading to a 39.33% year-on-year decrease in sales expenses for the first half of 2025 [7]. - There is an expectation for sequential improvement in performance in the second half of 2025 as inventory levels normalize and terminal demand increases [7]. - The company has consistently increased its cash dividend payout ratio, reaching 75.90% in 2024, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [7]. - Jichuan Pharmaceutical is focusing on enhancing its product pipeline through research and collaboration, with several new products expected to launch in the coming years [7]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is projected to be 18.03 billion, 19.86 billion, and 23.11 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.96, 2.16, and 2.51 [7]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, Jichuan Pharmaceutical reported revenue of 2.749 billion (down 31.87% year-on-year) and a net profit of 724 million (down 45.87% year-on-year) [7]. - The company anticipates a revenue decline of 16.96% in 2024, followed by a further decline of 20.53% in 2025, before a recovery in subsequent years [3][7]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 13.18, 11.96, and 10.28 respectively, indicating a potential for valuation improvement as earnings recover [3][7].

Core Insights - The report focuses on cross-asset timing strategies for interest rates, systematically backtesting various assets (including stock indices, commodities, and bonds) to identify performance under different market conditions [1]. Group 1: Cross-Asset Rotation Effects - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect arises from shifts in risk appetite, where strong economic expectations lead to capital flowing into equity markets, putting pressure on bond prices and raising yields [2][14]. - The relationship between commodities and bonds is closely tied to inflation expectations, with rising commodity prices typically leading to higher inflation and interest rates, which suppress bond valuations [2][14]. Group 2: Timing Strategies in Commodity and Equity Markets - In equity markets, strategies focused on volatility structures yield higher excess returns compared to trend-based moving average strategies, particularly in high-volatility environments [3]. - For commodities, timing strategies exhibit high odds and low win rates, aligning with the trend-driven nature of commodity trading. Multi-signal strategies outperform in various market conditions due to their adaptability [3][51]. Group 3: Cross-Asset Timing Strategies - The report employs a "cross-validation signal triggering method" for each asset, enhancing the robustness of cross-asset timing strategies. The "look at stocks, trade bonds" and "look at commodities, trade bonds" approaches aim to mitigate drawdowns while maintaining excess returns [4][86]. Group 4: Future Optimization Outlook - A dynamic weighting mechanism is proposed to adjust the importance of different market signals based on macroeconomic conditions, enhancing the adaptability of strategies over time [5]. - The report suggests exploring pair trading strategies in the foreign exchange market to provide additional support for cross-asset trading logic [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Insights - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 61.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.20 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.4%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 7.02 billion yuan, an increase of 31.8% [1] - The strong growth in ice cream and milk powder cheese revenue in Q2 2025 contributed to overall revenue exceeding expectations [2] - The company's market share in infant formula reached 18.1% in H1 2025, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, ranking first in the national retail market [3] - The net profit margin improved in Q2 2025 due to increased gross sales difference, reduced spray powder, and decreased credit impairment [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 119.01 billion, 122.29 billion, and 124.89 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 11.23 billion, 12.05 billion, and 12.99 billion yuan, indicating a positive growth trend [5] Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, cold drinks, and other products were 36.13 billion, 16.58 billion, 8.23 billion, and 390 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -2.1%, +14.3%, +12.4%, and -5.1% respectively [2] - In Q2 2025, revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, cold drinks, and other products were 16.49 billion, 7.76 billion, 4.12 billion, and 200 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -0.8%, +9.7%, +38.0%, and -3.1% respectively [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 36.0%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 11.7%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points [4] - In Q2 2025, the gross profit margin was 34.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 7.9%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points [4]