证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 28 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 03 月 28 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 大势：周四上证指数上涨 0.2%，沪深 300 上涨 0.3%，科创 50 上涨 1.1%，中证 1000 下跌 0.1%，创业板指上涨 0.2%， 恒生指数上涨 0.4%。 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是医药生物（+1.9%)、食品饮料（+0.9%)、基础化工（+0.8%)、电子（+0.5%)、 银行（+0.5%)，表现最差的行业分别是有色金属（-1.3%)、社会服务（-1.3%)、公用事业（-1.2%)、钢铁（-1.1%)、 综合（-1.1%)。 资金：周四沪深两市总成交额为 11906 亿元，南下资金净流入 41.4 亿港元。 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜】宏观深度报告：特朗普难以复制里根时代经济的"死而后生"——20250327 【浙商宏观 李超/潘高远】宏观专题研究：工业利润:"两新"支撑修复，装备制造高增——20250327 浙商早报 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 22.323 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.67%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 562 million yuan, up 31.72% year-on-year [1] - The enameled wire business saw revenue of 16.1 billion yuan in 2024, with a sales volume of 280,000 tons, marking a 27% increase in revenue and a 17.9% increase in sales volume [2] - The subsidiary Hengfeng Special Conductor is expanding its production capacity for high-speed silver-plated wires, with an expected annual capacity release of 5,000 tons after expansion [3] - The company holds an 18.29% stake in Shanghai Superconductor, which focuses on high-temperature superconducting materials and is expected to benefit from the commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 24.729 billion, 27.567 billion, and 30.749 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 709 million, 884 million, and 1.095 billion yuan [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 22.323 billion yuan and a net profit of 562 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 24.67% and 31.72% [1] - The company forecasts revenues of 24.729 billion yuan in 2025, 27.567 billion yuan in 2026, and 30.749 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits expected to reach 709 million yuan, 884 million yuan, and 1.095 billion yuan during the same period [5][7] Business Development - The enameled wire segment is performing well, with a revenue of 16.1 billion yuan and a sales volume of 280,000 tons in 2024, indicating strong demand in various sectors including automotive and robotics [2] - Hengfeng Special Conductor is expanding its production capacity for high-speed silver-plated wires, which are in high demand due to the growth in AI servers and data centers [3] - Shanghai Superconductor, in which the company is the largest shareholder, is expanding its production capacity for high-temperature superconducting materials, positioning itself as a key supplier in the nuclear fusion sector [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance with a significant increase in net profit and new business value (NBV) [1][6] - The life insurance segment's NBV growth is primarily driven by an increase in new business value rate [2] - The property insurance segment faced challenges with an increased claims ratio affecting the combined ratio (COR) [3] - The investment return rates have significantly improved, contributing to the overall profit increase [4] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 44.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.9% [1] - The operating profit attributable to shareholders was 34.43 billion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year [1] - The NBV for life insurance was 13.26 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.9% increase year-on-year [1] - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for property insurance was 98.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [1] Life Insurance - The NBV growth in 2024 was driven by an increase in the new business value rate, which rose by 3.5 percentage points to 16.8% [2] - New single premium decreased slightly by 4.1% year-on-year, with agent channel premiums increasing by 14% while bank insurance channel premiums decreased by 15.6% [2] - The company is focusing on high-quality transformation across various channels, expecting continued rapid growth in NBV [2] Property Insurance - The original insurance premium for property insurance was 201.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [3] - The claims ratio increased by 1.7 percentage points, impacting the overall COR, which rose to 98.6% [3] - The company is enhancing risk management and optimizing business structure to improve future COR [3] Investment - The total investment scale reached 2.73 trillion yuan, a 21.5% increase compared to the end of 2023 [4] - The net investment return rate was 3.8%, while the total investment return rate was 5.6%, showing a significant improvement [4] - The total investment income was 120.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130.5% [4] Assumption Adjustments - The company adjusted its long-term investment return rate assumption to 4.0% and the risk discount rate to 8.5%, resulting in a 23.3% decrease in NBV compared to previous assumptions [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain strong performance with projected net profit growth rates of 12%, 19.8%, and 26.8% for 2025-2027 [6] - The target price is set at 48.49 yuan, corresponding to a 0.78 times price to embedded value (PEV) for 2025 [6]

证券研究报告| 市场评论| ESG 及绿色金融 市场评论 报告日期:2025年03月27日 碳市场扩容正式落地,关注行业转型风险与高质量发展机遇 碳市场扩容政策点评 核心观点 2025年3月26日,生态环境部发布《全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖钢铁、水泥、铝冶 炼行业工作方案》,碳市场扩容正式落地,从"电解铝"更新为"铝冶炼"行业。整 体覆盖碳排放量增长约60%,进一步完善碳定价机制,助力行业高质量发展,推动建 成更加有效、更有活力、更具国际影响力的碳市场。 □ 多维度扩容推动碳市场从"单一"向"多元"升级,完善碳定价机制 此次扩围后. 重点排放单位数量从约 2200 家增长至约 3700 家,增幅约 68%;覆 盖排放量从约50亿吨增长至约80亿吨,增幅约60%;覆盖全国二氧化碳排放总 量占比从约 40%增长至约60%,增幅约50%。全国碳市场从仅发电行业向多行业 融合、从仅能源活动向兼顾能源活动与工业过程排放、从仅二氧化碳向多种温室 气体进行三重升级。市场活跃度有望提升,助力完善碳定价机制;降低出口欧盟 分析师:祁星 执业证书号: S1230524120002 qixing(a)stocke.com.cn 研究 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 核心观点 2025 年 1-2 月工业企业利润延续修复态势， "两新"政策积极发力推动，装备制造业 利润增速明显回升，带动工业利润修复。但以价换量特征仍然显著，价格对工业企业 利润增速的压制较大。工业稳增长带动工业生产高增，生产前置发力于需求，导致库 存阶段脉冲向上，但难改去库趋势，库存周期平坦化、跳跃化特征仍将延续。 我们认为，企业利润增速的回升仍待消费、价格的修复进一步发力，短期内考虑到中 美关系正处于关键性转折节点，有望走向阶段性缓和，风险偏好将成为市场主线，或 将迎来股债双牛行情。 ❑ 工业利润开局延续修复态势，以价换量特征显著 2025 年 1-2 月全国规模以上工业企业利润总额为 9109.9 亿元，比上年下降 0.3%， 利润降幅有所收窄。我们认为，"两新"政策持续发力是推动工业企业利润增速持 续修复的主要因素，在一揽子增量政策及时出台后，相关行业利润改善明显。但 以价换量特征较为显著，推动工业品价格的合理回升仍有较大空间。 在大规模设备更新相关政策带动下，通用设备、专用设备行业利润同比分别增长 6.0%、5.9%。其中，通用零部件制造、采矿冶金建筑 ...

证券研究报告 | 市场评论 | ESG 及绿色金融 市场评论 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 27 日 碳市场扩容正式落地，关注行业转型风险与高质量发展机遇 ——碳市场扩容政策点评 核心观点 2025 年 3 月 26 日，生态环境部发布《全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖钢铁、水泥、铝冶 炼行业工作方案》，碳市场扩容正式落地，从"电解铝"更新为"铝冶炼"行业。整 体覆盖碳排放量增长约 60%，进一步完善碳定价机制，助力行业高质量发展，推动建 成更加有效、更有活力、更具国际影响力的碳市场。 ❑ 多维度扩容推动碳市场从"单一"向"多元"升级，完善碳定价机制 此次扩围后，重点排放单位数量从约 2200 家增长至约 3700 家，增幅约 68%；覆 盖排放量从约 50 亿吨增长至约 80 亿吨，增幅约 60%；覆盖全国二氧化碳排放总 量占比从约 40%增长至约 60%，增幅约 50%。全国碳市场从仅发电行业向多行业 融合、从仅能源活动向兼顾能源活动与工业过程排放、从仅二氧化碳向多种温室 气体进行三重升级。市场活跃度有望提升，助力完善碳定价机制；降低出口欧盟 关税成本，提升应对绿色贸易壁垒能力。 ❑ 多阶段扩容稳步推进，行业 ...

境外业务靓丽 ——中国银行 2024 年年报业绩点评 投资要点 ❑ 24A 中国银行盈利增速回升，息差环比回升，资产质量改善，境外业务靓丽。 ❑ 业绩概览 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 国有大型银行Ⅱ 2024 年归母净利润同比增长 2.6%，增速较 24Q1-3 回升 2.0pc；营收同比增长 1.2%，增速较 2024Q1-3 放缓 0.4pc。2024 年末不良率 1.25%，较 24Q3 末下降 1bp；拨备覆盖率 201%，较 24Q3 末上升 2pc。 ❑ 盈利增速回升 中国银行 2024 年营收同比增长 1.2%，增速环比小幅放缓，其中息差拖累改善， 但其他非息增速下行。归母净利润同比增长 2.6%，增速环比回升 2.0pc，得益于 成本管控、所得税贡献加大。 ①息差回升：24Q4 单季息差（期初期末测算口径，下同）1.35%，环比回升 2bp。②非息放缓：24A 其他非息同比增长 35.0%，增速环比下降 15pc，是营收 主要拖累项。③成本控制：24A 成本支出同比增长 5.7%，增速环比下降 4.4pc， 主要得益于其他业务成本增速放缓。④税收贡献：24A 所得税支出同比减少 14.2% ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 27 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 03 月 27 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 【浙商科创&海外策略 王杨/陈昊】科创&海外市场策略深度研究：徐徐图之：关于 AI 应用启动的条件探讨—— 20250325 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：3 月 26 日上证指数下跌 0.04%，沪深 300 下跌 0.33%，科创 50 下跌 0.26%，中证 1000 上涨 0.38%，创业 板指下跌 0.26%，恒生指数上涨 0.6%。 行业：3 月 26 日表现最好的行业分别是综合（+2.11%)、农林牧渔（+1.64%)、汽车（+1.23%)、纺织服饰 （+1%)、机械设备（+0.81%)，表现最差的行业分别是银行（-1.45%)、公用事业（-0.43%)、有色金属（- 0.35%)、钢铁（-0.32%)、石油石化（-0.23%)。 资金：3 月 26 日全 A 总成交额 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit growth rates have improved, with net profit increasing by 5.6% year-on-year in 2024, and revenue growing by 1.1% year-on-year [2][5] - The stability of the interest margin exceeded expectations, with a daily average interest margin of 1.61% in 2024, remaining stable compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [3] - Asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.18% at the end of 2024, which is a slight increase of 1 basis point from the end of Q3 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5.6%, and revenue grew by 1.1%, both showing improvement compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [2][5] - The decline in net interest income has narrowed, with a decrease of 4.3% in 2024, which is an improvement of 2.7 percentage points compared to the first three quarters [2] - Other non-interest income saw a significant increase of 56% in 2024, up 16 percentage points from the first three quarters [2] Interest Margin - The daily average interest margin for 2024 was reported at 1.61%, which is stable compared to the first three quarters and better than market expectations [3] - The decline in interest margin is expected to narrow in 2025 due to the maturity of high-interest deposits and a slowdown in the decline of loan rates [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio at the end of 2024 was 1.18%, with a slight increase from the previous quarter, while the coverage ratio for provisions improved to 363% [4] - The company is expected to face pressure on non-performing loan generation, particularly in traditional manufacturing and retail sectors [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit growth is 5.8% for 2025, 5.5% for 2026, and 5.7% for 2027, with corresponding book values per share of 12.01, 12.80, and 13.63 CNY respectively [5] - The target price is set at 7.81 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside of 29% based on a price-to-book ratio of 0.65 for 2025 [5]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 股份制银行Ⅱ 经营表现稳健，中期分红落地 ——招商银行 2024 年报点评 投资要点 ❑ 招商银行 2024A 利润增速回正，资产质量平稳，2025 年中期分红初步落地。 ❑ 数据概览 招商银行 2024 年归母净利润同比增长 1.2%，利润增速回正；营收同比下降 0.5%，降幅较 24Q1-3 收窄 2.4pc。2024 年末不良率 0.95%，环比 24Q3 末回升 1bp，拨备覆盖率 412%，环比 24Q3 末下降 20pc。 ❑ 息差好于预期 招商银行 2024 年归母净利润同比增长 1.2%，利润增速回正；营收同比下降 0.5%，降幅较 24Q1-3 收窄 2.4pc。从驱动因素来看，除债市表现优异带动其他非 息增速回升外，核心超预期点在于息差拖累改善，支撑盈利增速改善。 招行 24Q4 单季净息差（日均口径）环比小幅下降 3bp 至 1.94%，息差韧性好于 预期。主要得益于负债成本显著改善。①资产端收益率环比下降 16bp至 3.33%， 主要是受 LPR 降息、存量按揭降息等行业共性因素冲击，贷款收益率环比下降 20bp 至 3.70%；②负债端成本率环比改善 ...