Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company is set to issue H shares, with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange reviewing its listing application and the board approving the global offering [1] - The humanoid robot business has secured over 100 million yuan in orders from Zhiyuan, marking a significant step in its operational deployment in the automotive parts manufacturing sector [2] - The company has received a total of approximately 15 billion yuan in new orders for intelligent driving products, with plans for mass production by 2027 [2][3] - Revenue and profit for the first half of 2025 showed steady growth, with revenue reaching 30.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and net profit of 710 million yuan, up 11% year-on-year [3] - The company's gross margin improved to 18.2%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a recovery in profitability [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 645 billion, 665 billion, and 710 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 3%, and 7% respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.53 billion, 1.83 billion, and 2.16 billion yuan, with compound annual growth rates of 31% from 2024 to 2027 [4] - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 28, 23, and 20 for 2025-2027 [4]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights the strong growth potential of the company "October Rice Field" (09676) in the health food sector, driven by the launch of new products and expansion into high-potential sales channels [6] - The company has exceeded expectations in both new product sales and channel expansion, with corn products emerging as a significant growth driver alongside rice products [6] - Revenue projections for "October Rice Field" are estimated at 6.951 billion, 8.371 billion, and 9.884 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 21%, 20%, and 18% respectively [6] Group 2: Industry Insights - The mechanical equipment sector is experiencing a cyclical reversal and growth, emphasizing the importance of self-sufficiency and domestic substitution due to trade tensions [8] - The report suggests that the military industry is poised for growth, with increased domestic demand and potential for foreign trade expansion leading to a revaluation of the sector [10] - The telecommunications industry is expected to maintain steady growth, with significant opportunities arising from advancements in computing power and satellite internet technologies [10][11] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The report identifies generative recommendation technology as a key area for investment, with major internet companies exploring its potential to enhance business outcomes [11] - Companies that successfully implement generative recommendation technology are expected to achieve substantial commercial value, surpassing industry averages [11] - Catalysts for growth in this area include improved advertising conversion rates and successful implementation by leading internet firms [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, the convertible bond market experiences a shift from high - risk to low - risk sectors due to style rotation, mainly driven by risk - aversion sentiment after sudden events. Long - term, the trading momentum of the convertible bond market remains strong, and the current period may be a good time for investors to optimize their portfolio structures [1][2]. - After a phased adjustment, the technology sector becomes more cost - effective. It is expected that a temporary agreement will be reached before the tariff implementation on November 1st. After the major meeting later this month, there may be a new round of domestic growth - stabilizing policies, and the convertible bond market may have pulse - type opportunities with a potential continuation of the slow - bull market. If the macro - narrative changes, combined with better - than - expected quarterly revenues and continuous catalysis from theme industries, the technology sector may regain market focus and show more elasticity [2][14]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - The convertible bond market shows a high - to - low shift in style rotation, mainly due to risk - aversion sentiment caused by unexpected tariff disturbances. Since October, the convertible bond market has undergone a structural adjustment, similar to the equity market in sector rotation. Short - term funds show obvious risk - aversion, and dividend - related sectors perform well. From October, the Wind Convertible Bond Weighted Index declined by 1.83%, with a more restrained adjustment compared to April. The style shifted from growth to defensive sectors like dividends, and the anti - decline property of convertible bonds is significant. In terms of industries, the Wind Convertible Bond Financial Index and Energy Index recorded 1.07% and 1.77% respectively since October, outperforming the Information Technology (-4.15%) and Consumption (-4.58%) indices [7]. - In terms of trading, the convertible bond market remains resilient, and there are still opportunities for structural market trends. This year, the convertible bond market has performed well, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index rising by 14.39% since 2025. However, in a high - valuation environment, the market is more sensitive to macro - environment changes, and the volatility of the technology growth sector and related products has increased significantly. In the short - term, due to a wait - and - see attitude, there is room for market adjustment, leading to a continuous correction of high - valuation products. Although the price center of convertible bonds has been fluctuating recently, except for high - price convertible bonds, the median price and the balance - weighted average price of the convertible bond market remain at the mid - September level. Except for the consumption sector, the overall turnover rate and trading volume of most industries are still above the 80th percentile of historical data. Long - term, the trading momentum of the convertible bond market remains, and it may be a good time for investors to optimize their portfolio structures. The defensive property of convertible bonds is still attractive [2][8]. 3.2 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - The performance of different convertible bond indices varies. For example, the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index has different changes in different time periods: -0.06% in the recent week, 1.77% in the recent two weeks, etc. The Wind Convertible Bond Information Technology Index declined by 3.51% in the recent week and 4.15% in the recent two weeks [15]. 2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities No specific content about convertible bond individual securities is provided other than the mention of relevant charts (Figures 6 and 7 showing the top ten and bottom ten individual securities in terms of price changes in the recent week) [18]. 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation No specific analysis content about convertible bond valuation is provided, but there are relevant charts (Figures 8 - 11) showing the valuation trends of bond - type, balanced, equity - type convertible bonds and the conversion premium rate valuation trends of convertible bonds with different parities [23][25]. 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices No specific analysis content about convertible bond prices is provided, but there are relevant charts (Figures 12 - 13) showing the proportion trend of high - price bonds and the median price of convertible bonds [30].

- The report suggests that the current market adjustment may exceed expectations, driven by the ongoing US-China trade friction and the microstructural rebalancing in the technology sector[1][3][4] - The report recommends switching from technology to dividend stocks in the short term due to the over-optimistic market expectations and the need for further consolidation[1][3][4] - The report highlights the differences between the current market environment and the one in April, noting that the market's position is relatively high, and the technology sector may be entering a phase of expectation realization[3][14] - The report identifies the structural risks in the technology sector, including high financing net inflows and concentrated holdings by public equity funds[4][15] - The report mentions the estimation model for fund positions, showing that the cumulative holdings of the TMT sector by public equity funds have reached the highest level since 2019[4][15] - The report discusses the trading congestion model, indicating that popular sectors like non-ferrous metals, electric power equipment, electronics, and communication are highly congested[4][15] - The report notes that despite the significant adjustment in technology stocks, there is still a divergence in market views on their future performance, suggesting potential opportunities for portfolio rebalancing[5][6][16] - The report includes a timing model based on micro-market structure, showing that the activity of informed traders is cooling down, indicating a cautious attitude towards the future market[18] - The report provides insights into the performance of BARRA style factors, indicating that stocks with high turnover and short-term momentum showed negative excess returns, while high volatility stocks continued to provide positive excess returns[27][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The calculated September 2025 excess reserve ratio is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years, but the core excess reserve ratio (excluding the central bank's reverse repurchase balance) is at a low level during the same period. This divergence indicates that the current excess reserves of the banking system rely on central bank injections, and the 1.4% 7D reverse repurchase rate of the central bank directly forms the lower limit of DR007 [1][3]. - With the slowdown of government bond issuance and commercial banks' reduced focus on loan - volume targets, the core excess reserve ratio is expected to rise slightly in the fourth quarter [4]. Summary by Directory 1 How to View the Divergence between Excess Reserve Ratio and Core Excess Reserve Ratio - The September 2025 excess reserve ratio (calculated by the five - factor method) is 1.59%, up from 1.22% in August and compared to 1.80% in September 2024. It is the second - highest in September over the past five years [2][11]. - The core excess reserve ratio in September 2025 is 0.64%, while the calculated core excess reserve ratios in September of the past four years were 0.98%, 1.07%, 0.42%, and 1.15%. The divergence shows that the excess reserve level of the commercial banking system depends on the central bank's open - market reverse repurchases, and the central bank's injections affect the level of excess reserves [3][12]. - The impact of loans on excess reserves has been decreasing. From 2022 to Q3 2025, the new RMB loans of commercial banks were 4.4 trillion, 4 trillion, 2.75 trillion, and 1.83 trillion respectively, and the growth rate may remain low in Q4. As of October 17, 2025, the remaining government bond issuance amount is much lower than the quarterly issuance in the first three quarters of 2025 [4][17]. 2 Narrow - sense Liquidity 2.1 Central Bank Operations: Continuous Net Injection of Outright Reverse Repurchases - In the past week (10/13 - 10/17), the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 3479 billion yuan. As of October 17, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 7891 billion yuan, significantly lower than at the end of September, in line with the pattern of "injections at the end of the month and withdrawals at the beginning of the month" [19]. - In October, the total maturity amount of outright reverse repurchases was 13000 billion yuan (8000 billion yuan for 3M and 5000 billion yuan for 6M), and the MLF maturity was 7000 billion yuan. The central bank's net injection of outright reverse repurchases in October was 4000 billion yuan [20]. 2.2 Institution - level Funding Supply and Demand: Strong Supply and Demand - On October 17, large - scale banks' net funding supply (flow concept, excluding same - day maturities) was 4.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 6899 billion yuan from October 10, and the net funding supply balance was 5.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 6170 billion yuan from October 10, both at relatively high levels compared to the same period in previous years. The net funding supply balance of money market funds was 1.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5374 billion yuan from October 10, in line with the rule of "less net funding supply in a loose liquidity environment". The net funding supply of joint - stock commercial banks was - 2118 billion yuan, at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [21]. - On October 17, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank pledged repurchase market was about 12.0 trillion yuan, an increase of 3340 billion yuan from October 10. The full - market leverage ratio was 107%, up 0.22 percentage points from October 10, and the leverage ratio of non - legal person products was 113%, up 0.44 percentage points from October 10 [30]. 2.3 Repurchase Market Transaction: Stable Volume and Price - In the past week, the volume and price of the inter - bank pledged repurchase market were stable. The median daily trading volume was about 8 trillion yuan, an increase of 4665 billion yuan compared to October 10 - 11. The median R001 was 1.35%, still at a low level. The median spread between R001 and DR001 decreased by 2.8bp to 3.9bp, and the median spread between GC001 and R001 decreased by 5.5bp to 4bp, indicating low liquidity friction [34]. - The funding sentiment index remained around 50, and the market generally loosened in the afternoon [36]. 2.4 Interest Rate Swaps: Slight Decline - The 1 - year FR007 IRS rate and the 1 - year SHIBOR 3 - month IRS rate increased compared to last week. The median 1 - year FR007 IRS rate was 1.54%, in the 9th percentile since 2020, and the median 1 - year SHIBOR 3 - month IRS rate was 1.61%, in the 23rd percentile since 2020 [43]. 3 Government Bonds: Neutral Net Payment Pressure for Government Bonds in the Coming Week 3.1 Next Week's Net Payment for Government Bonds - In the coming week, the expected net payment for government bonds is 1584 billion yuan, with a neutral overall net payment pressure. The net payment for treasury bonds is 216 billion yuan, and for local government bonds is 1367 billion yuan. The net payment pressure is relatively high on Tuesday, and the net repayment amount is the largest on Wednesday [44]. 3.2 Current Government Bond Issuance Progress - As of October 18, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 84.1%, an increase of 0.2% in the past week, with about 1.06 trillion yuan of remaining net financing space in 2025. The issuance progress of new local government bonds was 84%, with 0.83 trillion yuan of remaining issuance space (excluding the proposed 5000 - billion - yuan local government bond quota balance). The issuance of refinancing special bonds has completed the annual task. The supply of government bonds slowed down in October, and future issuance depends on the issuance rhythm of the 5000 - billion - yuan local government bond quota balance and the early allocation of the new local government debt quota in 2026 [48]. 4 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit: Significantly Reduced Net Financing, and the Long - term Liability Pressure of Banks May Be Controllable 4.1 Absolute Yields - On October 17, the SHIBOR quotes for overnight, 7 - day, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 1.32%, 1.42%, 1.56%, 1.58%, 1.64%, 1.66%, and 1.67% respectively. The yields of 1M and above for AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit of commercial banks were 1.5%, 1.59%, 1.64%, 1.66%, and 1.67% respectively [50]. 4.2 Issuance and Outstanding Amount - From October 13 to 17, the total primary issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 7295.30 billion yuan, an increase of 7130 billion yuan compared to October 9 - 10. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 12%, 20%, 44%, 5%, and 19% respectively, with 1M and 9M decreasing by 57.49 and 3.08 percentage points, and 3M, 6M, and 1Y increasing by 12.81, 38.65, and 9.12 percentage points respectively [54]. 4.3 Relative Valuation - On October 17, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield and R007 was 20bp, in the 40th percentile since 2020, and the spread between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield was 16bp, in the 32nd percentile since 2020 [56].

——煤炭行业周报（10月第2周） 证券研究报告 大寒潮+严安全，旺季积极布局 1.煤炭板块收涨，跑赢沪深300指数：截止2025年10月17日，本周中信煤炭行业收涨4.27%，沪深300指数下跌2.22%，跑赢沪深300指数6.49个百分点。全板块整周28只股价上涨，7只 下跌，2只持平。大有能源涨幅最高，整周涨幅为53.13%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2025年10月10日-2025年10月16日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为705万吨，周环比增加7.7%，年同比减少5.7%。其中，动力煤周日均 销量较上周增加8.4%，炼焦煤销量较上周增加8.1%，无烟煤销量较上周增加1.3%。截至2025年10月16日，重点监测企业煤炭日均产量为691万吨，周环比增加2.5%，年同比减少6.1%； 重点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2436万吨，周环比减少3.9%，年同比减少11.3%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累计销量200342.8万吨，同比减少2.6%；其中动力煤、 焦煤、无烟煤累计销量分别同比-3.6%、-2.8%、6.2%。需求端，电力、化工行业累计耗煤分别同比减少2.7%、增加15 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Bullish" [1] Report's Core View - The fundamentals of the steel industry are stronger than expected, with high molten iron production and steel inventory reduction [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price - The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3,840, with a weekly decline of 1.5% and a year-to-date increase of 14.6% [3] - The CSI 300 Index was at 4,514, with a weekly decline of 2.2% and a year-to-date increase of 14.7% [3] - The SW Steel Index was at 2,545, with a weekly decline of 2.0% and a year-to-date increase of 21.1% [3] - The prices of various steel products and raw materials showed different degrees of change, such as the price of HRB400 20mm rebar was 3,210 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 0.0% and a year-to-date decline of 5.9% [3] Inventory - The total social inventory of five major steel products was 1,125 tons, with a weekly decline of 0.2% and a year-to-date increase of 48.3% [5] - The total steel mill inventory of five major steel products was 456 tons, with a weekly decline of 3.4% and a year-to-date increase of 30.3% [5] - The iron ore port inventory was 14,282 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.8% and a year-to-date decline of 3.9% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly production of five major steel products and the daily average molten iron production showed different trends over the years [9] - The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates in China showed different trends over time [12] - The profitability rate of steel mills and the apparent demand for rebar in China were presented [15] Stock Price Performance - The top 5 stocks in terms of weekly price increase were Lingang Co., Ltd., Baotou Steel Co., Ltd., etc., and the bottom 5 stocks were Jiuli Special Materials Co., Ltd., Shougang Co., Ltd., etc. [18][19]

证券研究报告 | A 股策略周报 | 中国策略 "内外两因"触发调整，再平衡、控弹性 ——A 股市场运行周报第 63 期 核心观点 本周由于内因（前期涨幅过大，市场有内生性调整压力）和外因（特朗普再度掀起关 税战）共振，市场明显承压，主要宽基指数均录得负收益。展望后市，由于双创指数 本周已"有效跌破"上升趋势线，后市大概率进行周线级整理；而上证和上证 50 仍保 持在上升趋势线上方，虽然有较大概率跟随双创调整，但也保留了继续上攻的可能性。 市场风格方面，大盘明显在当前位置进行"换挡"，我们预计后续仍会有部分资金进行 风格切换和行业再平衡；其中，大金融（尤其券商）将是权重指数重新展开攻势的"核 心变量"。配置方面，基于"双创调整科技弱化，市场震荡资金切换"的判断，坚持系 统性"慢"牛思维，待市场调整结构完善、"倒车接人"机会来临时再进行增配。建议 绝对收益资金重点关注大金融、地产、中字头基建、红利等；考虑到双创已经跌破趋 势线，建议相对收益风格在双创指数反弹时逢高控制组合弹性、做好"再平衡"，适当 进行板块间、板块内"高切低"。 ❑ 本周（2025-10-13 至 2025-10-17）行情概况 （1）主要指数 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company has shown impressive performance due to the opening of the new market, with revenue reaching 13.1 billion (up 23% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 3.46 billion (up 48%) for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The newly opened Global Digital Trade Center is expected to enhance revenue certainty, with 80% of the leasing completed and over 3,700 merchants already operating in various new industries [1][2] - The company is actively developing new businesses such as "Yi Payment," which has seen transaction volumes exceed 27 billion (up over 35%) [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.35 billion (up 39%) and net profit of 1.766 billion (up 101%) [1] - The company forecasts revenues of 20.6 billion, 26.3 billion, and 30.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 28%, and 17% [4] New Business Developments - The "Yi Payment" platform has been launched, providing cross-border payment services and achieving significant transaction volumes [3] - The company has introduced 13 AI applications aimed at reducing costs and improving efficiency for merchants in the small commodity trade sector [2] Market Expansion - The Global Digital Trade Center, which opened on October 14, 2025, is a key driver for future growth, featuring a total area of 1.25 million square meters and multiple functional areas [1][2] - The new market has attracted a significant number of new generation operators, with over 50% being "second-generation" business owners [1]

- The report constructs a quantitative timing indicator for the US Dollar Index by integrating five key factors: US economic fundamentals, US interest rate advantage, USD long-short position differences, global financial stress, and US fiscal deficit[1][16][22] - The construction process involves detrending, denoising, and standardizing these factors, followed by equal-weighted synthesis to form the final timing indicator[2][25] - The timing indicator is effective in predicting the US Dollar Index's upward trend when it is above the zero axis and marginally rising, with a success rate of 74.1% in such conditions[2][29][35] Model and Factor Construction 1. **Model Name**: US Dollar Timing Indicator - **Construction Idea**: Integrate multiple economic and financial factors to predict the US Dollar Index's movements[1][16] - **Construction Process**: 1. Identify five key factors influencing USD demand: US economic fundamentals, US interest rate advantage, USD long-short position differences, global financial stress, and US fiscal deficit[1][16][22] 2. Detrend the factors with long-term trends using rolling HP filter[25] 3. Denoise and standardize the factors[25] 4. Combine the factors with equal weights to form the final timing indicator[25] 5. The indicator uses zero as the historical fluctuation center, indicating a tendency for the USD Index to rise when above zero[25] - **Evaluation**: The indicator effectively predicts the USD Index's upward trend when above zero and marginally rising, with a 74.1% success rate[2][29][35] Model Backtesting Results 1. **US Dollar Timing Indicator** - **0 Axis Above + Marginally Rising**: 74.1% probability of USD Index rising next month[29][35] - **0 Axis Above + Marginally Falling**: 48.0% probability of USD Index rising next month[35] - **0 Axis Below + Marginally Rising**: 35.4% probability of USD Index rising next month[35] - **0 Axis Below + Marginally Falling**: 49.0% probability of USD Index rising next month[35] - **Overall Sample**: 52.3% probability of USD Index rising next month[35]