Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Views - The metal bull market is expected to continue, with significant price increases across various metal categories in 2025 [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical factors and the ongoing "de-dollarization" process, which may extend the current commodity supercycle [6][10] Price Performance by Metal - Precious Metals: Gold is projected to rise 57% to 971 CNY/gram, and silver is expected to increase by 129% to 17.1 CNY/gram [6] - Industrial Metals: Copper is forecasted to increase by 34% to 99,000 CNY/ton, aluminum by 14% to 23,000 CNY/ton, lead by 3% to 17,000 CNY/ton, and zinc is expected to decrease by 10% to 23,000 CNY/ton [6] - Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate is expected to rise by 58% to 119,000 CNY/ton, and electrolytic nickel by 10% to 138,000 CNY/ton [6] - Strategic Metals: Neodymium oxide is projected to increase by 52% to 610,000 CNY/ton, and tungsten concentrate by 218% to 455,000 CNY/ton [6] Investment Focus - Key investment opportunities include lithium companies such as Ganfeng Lithium, Zhongjin Lingnan, and Salt Lake Industry; cobalt companies like Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources; and various gold, copper, aluminum, and rare earth companies [6] Metal Price Changes in Q4 2025 - Lithium carbonate averaged 80,000 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 95% [7] - Gold averaged 951 CNY/gram, with a year-on-year increase of 54% [7] - Copper averaged 89,000 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 18% [7] Copper Market Insights - The average LME copper price for 2025 is projected to be around 10,000 USD/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9% [10] - The report highlights the impact of the declining US dollar index and geopolitical tensions on copper prices [10] Aluminum Market Insights - The average price of A00 aluminum is expected to reach 20,700 CNY/ton in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 4% [22] - The report notes that aluminum prices are driven by strong downstream demand and supportive policies [22] Energy Metals Insights - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is projected to be 75,921 CNY/ton for 2025, with a significant increase in Q4 [33] - Nickel and cobalt prices are also expected to remain strong, with electrolytic nickel averaging 124,100 CNY/ton [33] Strategic Metals Insights - The report indicates that prices for rare earths and tungsten are on the rise, with neodymium oxide expected to average 55.6 million CNY/ton in Q4 2025 [39] - The strategic importance of these metals is emphasized in the context of global geopolitical dynamics [40]

Market Overview - On January 14, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.31%, while the CSI 300 decreased by 0.4%. The STAR Market 50 rose by 2.13%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 0.82%. The Hang Seng Index saw an increase of 0.56% [4][5]. - The best-performing sectors on January 14 were Computer (+3.42%), Comprehensive (+2.9%), Communication (+1.91%), Media (+1.55%), and Electronics (+1.36%). The worst-performing sectors included Banking (-1.88%), Real Estate (-1.18%), Non-bank Financials (-0.84%), Transportation (-0.76%), and Food & Beverage (-0.73%) [4][5]. - The total trading volume for the A-share market on January 14 was 39,868.62 billion, with a net inflow of 2.865 billion HKD from southbound funds [4][5]. Important Recommendations - The report highlights the company "Shiyun Circuit" (603920) as a strong investment opportunity due to its deep integration with Tesla's supply chain, benefiting from emerging fields such as commercial aerospace, brain-machine interfaces, humanoid robots, and intelligent driving [6]. - The recommendation logic emphasizes the company's strategy of maintaining strong relationships with major clients, continuous technological upgrades, and expansion of high-end production capacity. The company is also well-positioned to capitalize on AI opportunities, benefiting from Tesla's growth [6]. - Revenue projections for Shiyun Circuit are estimated at 6,118.98 million, 7,956.05 million, and 11,326.83 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 21.84%, 30.02%, and 42.37%. Net profit is projected to be 892.13 million, 1,176.63 million, and 1,717.61 million with growth rates of 32.22%, 31.89%, and 45.98% for the same years [6]. Important Commentary - The report discusses "Jack Technology" (603337), which has announced its entry into the embroidery machine industry, launching two core products: the X7 flat embroidery machine and the X5 cap embroidery machine. The company plans to build a dedicated production base of 300 acres and form a professional team of 1,000 [7][8]. - The industrial sewing machine sector is expected to recover, with low inventory levels in the apparel sector indicating a potential rebound in demand. The report notes that both domestic and international demand may converge positively in 2026 [8]. - Jack Technology's competitive edge is highlighted by its quality and price advantages, which are expected to enhance its market share overseas. The company is also expanding into new product categories, contributing to revenue growth [8].

Market Overview - On January 13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.64%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.6%, the STAR 50 dropped by 2.8%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1.84%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.96%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.9% [4][5]. - The best-performing sectors on January 13 were Oil & Petrochemicals (+1.62%), Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology (+1.21%), Nonferrous Metals (+0.91%), Media (+0.67%), and Banking (+0.65%). The worst-performing sectors included Defense & Military (-5.5%), Electronics (-3.3%), Telecommunications (-2.88%), Computers (-1.92%), and Building Materials (-1.87%) [4][5]. - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on January 13 was 36,988 billion, with a net inflow of 1.296 billion HKD from southbound funds [4][5]. Important Insights - The report maintains the view from December 7, 2025, regarding interbank certificate of deposit (CD) rates, suggesting they may remain in a "dilemma" state. Market sentiment towards the trajectory of CD rates has become more optimistic [6]. - Key questions addressed include the impact of the appreciation of the RMB on the interbank funding environment and the extent of credit growth in January 2026 [6]. - The report emphasizes that the interbank CD rates may continue to face challenges [6]. Industry Analysis - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its industrialization process, with isostatic pressing equipment identified as a core incremental segment that addresses the "solid-solid" interface impedance issue [7]. - The market size for isostatic pressing equipment is projected to exceed 6 billion by 2030 [7]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies that focus on breakthroughs in isostatic technology and the realization of orders [7]. - Catalysts for growth include policy reviews by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, cost reductions, and order fulfillment [7].

Economic Indicators - The GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index as of January 10 is 5.9%, a significant increase from the revised value of 5.0% the previous week, indicating a positive economic outlook[1][7]. - The service sector is the main driver of this increase, attributed to enhanced contributions from the financial industry and active travel performance[1][7]. Production and Demand - High-frequency indicators for both the service and industrial sectors have improved compared to the previous week[1][10]. - External demand remains strong, while internal demand, particularly in infrastructure, shows better-than-seasonal performance[1][18]. - The construction sector's physical workload is exhibiting a trend of exceeding seasonal expectations, with a notable increase in the operational rates of asphalt and cement facilities compared to the previous year[1][29]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market shows a significant decline, with new home sales in 30 major cities dropping to 125.2 million square meters, a 49% decrease week-on-week and a 36% decrease year-on-year[1][45]. - Land transaction volumes have also decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 31.03% in land sales across 100 cities[1][45]. Price Trends - Consumer prices are fluctuating, with agricultural product prices showing a mixed trend; the wholesale price index for agricultural products decreased by 0.13% week-on-week[1][52]. - The average wholesale price of pork has increased by 1.45% week-on-week, while vegetable prices have continued to decline, with a 2.8% drop in the average price of 28 monitored vegetables[1][55][59].

Market Overview - On January 12, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.65%, the STAR 50 surged by 2.43%, the CSI 1000 climbed by 2.8%, the ChiNext Index went up by 1.82%, and the Hang Seng Index gained 1.44% [5] - The best-performing sectors on January 12 were Media (+7.8%), Computer (+7.26%), Defense and Military Industry (+5.66%), Social Services (+3.21%), and Communication (+2.74%). The worst-performing sectors were Oil and Petrochemicals (-1%), Coal (-0.47%), and Real Estate (-0.29%) [5] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on January 12 was 36,446 billion, with a net inflow of 7.306 billion HKD from southbound funds [5] Important Recommendations Company Updates - **Xirui (02507)**: The company is highlighted for its high visibility in performance and simultaneous increase in volume and price. The valuation is considered attractive, with potential for exceeding expectations in 2026 due to continuous innovation in core models and strong brand recognition [6] - **Dongfang Securities (600958)**: As the second-largest brokerage under Shanghai State-owned Assets, it is positioned to benefit from both internal growth and external integration opportunities. The governance structure is being strengthened, and there are expectations for improved operational efficiency and capital utilization [7][8] Key Insights Strategy Research - The A-share market is expected to have greater certainty in the first half of 2026 compared to the second half, driven by various factors including technical patterns and international conditions. The Shanghai Composite Index is anticipated to trend upwards in the first half, while potential corrections may occur in the second half [10] - The offshore RMB exchange rate is projected to approach the 0.5 percentile between 6.3 and 7.4, which could attract foreign investment and positively impact the A-share market [10] Media Industry Commentary - The application of AI is gaining momentum, particularly in the areas of GEO and AI animation. The rapid evolution of generative engines into marketing necessities is noted, with significant investment opportunities identified in companies involved in these themes [12][13]

多重拐点共振，内外驱动发展 ——东方证券推荐报告 投资要点 ❑ 一句话逻辑：东方证券是上海国资旗下第二大券商，迎接内生驱动与外延整合 机遇。 ❑ 超预期点分析 1.超预期点：治理端董事会主导强化并打开外延整合想象空间；业务端资管修复 先行，自营固收结构对冲与权益再扩张接力，叠加历史风险敞口持续出清，数字 化转型机遇下迎接市场表现释放。 2）去年以来，并购重组逻辑预期的券商都有过阶段性领涨板块的表现，甚至单 日涨停的表现，东方证券若未来产生外延扩张预期，则期待其市场表现。 2.超预期驱动因素与机理 1）市场与板块层面：2025 年券商板块呈现盈利改善但股价滞涨特征，隐含的估 值修复弹性被后移；若风险偏好与成交活跃度回升，券商作为高 β 板块更容易出 现戴维斯双击。 2）政策层面：监管鼓励松绑优质券商杠杆、业务创新与提升行业高质量发展， 同时并购重组规则持续优化，行业集中度依托成功案例提升路径更清晰，头部与 优质券商有望受益于杠杆与创新边际放松的政策周期。 3）个股层面：①治理结构拐点：以龚德雄为首的高管更迭推动董事会中心化与 专业化决策进一步强化，经营效率与资本运用有望提升。②外延整合预期差：公 司战略目标指向 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 传媒 传媒 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 12 日 AI 应用一马当先，重点关注 GEO 和漫剧 ——行业点评报告 投资要点 行业评级: 看好(维持) 分析师：冯翠婷 执业证书号：S1230525010001 fengcuiting@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《25 年票房整体复苏，年底 弱档期表现超预期》 2026.01.05 2 《《疯狂动物城 2》票房有望 超预期，叠加春节档定档催化》 2025.12.01 行业点评 股票投资评级说明 3 《"云+AI"继续驱动北美云厂 资本开支高速增长》 2025.11.20 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 总市值（亿元） | 1220至今涨幅（%） | 上周涨幅（%） | 上周交易额（亿元） | 周交易额占市值比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603598.SH | 引力传媒 | 69.90 | 55.74 | 52.62 | 48.75 | 69.75% | | 300058.SZ | 蓝色光标 | 616.80 | 101.17 | 49.13 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report maintains the view in the December 7, 2025, report "Interbank Certificates of Deposit in a Dilemma" that interbank certificate of deposit (CD) rates may remain "caught between a rock and a hard place." The rates face difficulties in rising due to the cost comparison between central bank's medium - term liquidity tools like outright reverse repurchase and MLF and the current issuance rate of interbank CDs, as well as the increasing demand for CD allocation driven by the growth of current - period wealth management products. They also face difficulties in falling because, under the policy of narrowing the short - term interest rate corridor, DR001 and R001 are unlikely to deviate significantly from the central bank's 7 - day OMO rate [1][9]. - The report focuses on answering two key questions: how the RMB exchange - rate appreciation affects the inter - bank liquidity and the scale of the "good start" in credit in January 2026. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interbank CD Rates May Remain "Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place" - The view that interbank CD rates are in a difficult situation of neither rising nor falling is maintained. The reasons for the difficulty of rising and falling are the same as those in the previous report [1][9]. - Investors are concerned about the impact of RMB exchange - rate appreciation on inter - bank liquidity and the scale of the "good start" in credit in January 2026 [2][9]. 3.2 Narrow - Sense Liquidity 3.2.1 Central Bank Operations - Short - term liquidity: At the beginning of the month, there was a net withdrawal. In the past week (January 4 - 9), the central bank's open - market repurchase agreements matured intensively, with a net withdrawal of 1.655 trillion yuan through pledged reverse repurchases. As of January 9, the central bank's reverse - repurchase balance was 138.7 billion yuan, remaining at a low level [15]. - Medium - term liquidity: The 3 - month outright reverse repurchase was renewed at the same amount. In January, the total maturity amount of outright reverse repurchases was 1.7 trillion yuan (1.1 trillion yuan for the 3 - month and 600 billion yuan for the 6 - month), and the MLF maturity was 200 billion yuan. On January 8, the central bank renewed 1.1 trillion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchases, achieving the third consecutive monthly equivalent renewal [16]. - Long - term liquidity: In December 2025, the central bank's net purchase of treasury bonds was 50 billion yuan, falling short of market expectations [18]. 3.2.2 Institutions' Borrowing and Lending Situations - Fund supply (lending side): On January 9, large - scale banks' net lending (flow concept, excluding same - day maturities) was about 5 trillion yuan, an increase of about 2.8492 trillion yuan compared to December 31, at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years. Their net lending balance was 5.9 trillion yuan, an increase of about 1.2712 trillion yuan compared to December 31. The net lending balance of money - market funds was 0.8 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 412.2 billion yuan compared to December 31, at an extremely low level in the same period of previous years. Small - and medium - sized banks' net lending was - 637.3 billion yuan, a decrease of about 256.6 billion yuan compared to December 31, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years [19]. - Fund demand (borrowing side): On January 9, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank pledged repurchase market was about 13.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2491 trillion yuan compared to December 31. By institution, public funds (excluding money - market funds), securities companies, bank wealth - management products, and insurance companies increased by 5.4 billion yuan, 30 billion yuan, 34.6 billion yuan, and decreased by 207.5 billion yuan respectively. The market - wide leverage ratio was 107.6%, an increase of 0.72 percentage points compared to December 31, at the 42% percentile since 2020. The leverage ratio of non - legal - person products was 114.2%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points compared to December 31, at about the 53% percentile since 2020 [25]. 3.2.3 Repurchase Market Transaction Situations - Fund quantity and price: In the past week, the inter - bank pledged repurchase market had a large volume and stable prices. The median daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchases was about 8.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.3934 trillion yuan compared to December 29 - 31. The median R001 was 1.33%, a decrease of about 4 basis points compared to the previous week, remaining at a low level. In terms of liquidity stratification, the median spread between R001 and DR001 was 6.8 basis points, a decrease of 5.6 basis points compared to the previous week; the median spread between GC001 and R001 was 10.6 basis points, a decrease of 42.9 basis points compared to the previous week [31]. - Fund sentiment index: The overall inter - bank liquidity was loose, and the financing difficulty was low. The sentiment index was mostly below 50 [33]. 3.2.4 Interest - Rate Swaps - The 1 - year FR007 IRS rate was basically flat compared to the previous week. This week, the median 1 - year FR007 IRS rate was 1.51%, at the 4% percentile since 2020 [35]. 3.3 Government Bonds - In the past week, the net payment for government bonds was 432.7 billion yuan, with a large net - payment pressure, including 315 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 117.7 billion yuan for local bonds. In the coming week, government bonds are expected to have a net repayment of 93.1 billion yuan, including a net repayment of 159.2 billion yuan for treasury bonds and a net payment of 66.1 billion yuan for local bonds [37]. 3.4 Interbank CDs 3.4.1 Absolute Yield - On January 9, the SHIBOR overnight, 7 - day, 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year quotes were 1.27%, 1.46%, 1.56%, 1.6%, 1.62%, 1.64%, and 1.65% respectively. The yields to maturity of ChinaBond's commercial - bank AAA - rated 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year interbank CDs were 1.53%, 1.6%, 1.63%, 1.63%, and 1.63% respectively. Except for the 9 - month term with no change in the quote, the other terms increased by 4 basis points, 5 basis points, 2 basis points, and 1 basis point respectively compared to December 31 [38]. 3.4.2 Issuance and Outstanding Situations - In the past week (January 4 - 9), the total primary issuance of interbank CDs was 176.36 billion yuan (excluding those with undisclosed actual raised amounts as of January 9), an increase of 35.69 billion yuan compared to December 29 - 31. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year were 26%, 6%, 15%, 15%, and 44% respectively. Among them, the proportions of 1 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year increased by 6.4 percentage points, 11.9 percentage points, 6.0 percentage points, and 43.6 percentage points respectively, while the 3 - month proportion decreased by 42.6 percentage points [41]. 3.4.3 Relative Valuation - On January 9, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated interbank CD yield to maturity and R007 was 12 basis points, at the 29% percentile since 2020; the spread between the 10 - year treasury - bond yield to maturity and the 1 - year AAA - rated interbank CD was 25 basis points, at the 66% percentile since 2020 [44].

Group 1: Company Overview - The report focuses on Bio Co., Ltd. (600201), highlighting its potential breakthrough with the African Swine Fever vaccine, which is expected to reshape its competitive advantage and growth momentum [3][4]. - The recommendation logic emphasizes the company's strong R&D barriers, rich product pipeline, and the recent clinical approval of the ASF vaccine, which could become the main growth driver over the next 3-5 years [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Projections - Projected revenues for Bio Co., Ltd. from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 1,603.76 million, 2,035.36 million, and 2,520.85 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.74%, 26.91%, and 24.85% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 303.45 million, 397.65 million, and 491.31 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 178.44%, 31.04%, and 23.55% respectively [4]. Group 3: Catalysts and Drivers - Key catalysts include breakthroughs in the ASF vaccine development and advancements in the mRNA vaccine for feline infectious peritonitis [4]. - The driving factors for growth are the leading progress in ASF vaccine development, a solid position in foot-and-mouth disease, rapid expansion in the pet sector, and ongoing overseas market development [3][4]. Group 4: Market Position and Strategy - The company is expected to exceed performance expectations due to the clinical approval of the ASF vaccine, diversified product launches, and rapid overseas market expansion [3]. - The strategy includes leveraging marketing support, online channel development, and international market penetration to drive revenue growth [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3][17] Core Insights - Interest income is expected to return to positive growth, supported by an improvement in net interest margins in Q4 2025, which will offset other non-interest impacts [1] - For the full year 2025, listed banks are projected to see a net profit growth rate of 1.8% and revenue growth of 1.2%, both showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement [1] - Quality city commercial banks are expected to lead the sector, with revenue and profit growth rates projected between 5-10% for 2025 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Outlook - The overall outlook for 2025 indicates an improvement in net profit and revenue growth for listed banks, primarily due to the alleviation of margin pressures and increased provisions [1] - The asset scale of listed banks is expected to grow by 9.0% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown compared to previous quarters due to weak credit demand [1] Key Drivers - **Margin Stabilization**: Q4 2025 is expected to see a 2 basis point improvement in net interest margin to 1.32%, driven by a larger decline in funding costs compared to asset yields [1] - **Non-Interest Income**: Non-interest income is projected to grow by 3.2% year-on-year, a decrease from earlier quarters, with a slight positive trend in commission income [1] - **Credit Quality**: The credit cost ratio is expected to decline to 0.67%, indicating a stable improvement in non-performing loans, particularly in retail lending [1] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that banks with new growth drivers are likely to see significant value recovery, recommending major state-owned banks and select city commercial banks as key investment targets [1][2]