投资要点 证券研究报告 | 年度行业策略报告 | 电子 电子 | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------| | | | | | 报告日期： 2024 年 12 月 03 日 | ❑ AI 训练侧：北美算力持续迭代，国产算力突破元年 1） 海外算力：随着英伟达 GB200 逐步投入量产，近期鸿海、广达于法说会中 纷纷表示：2025 年 AI 将带动 ICT 产业景气乐观可期，AI 服务器出货量将逐季 攀升。国内方面，随着国产 AI 芯片在智算中心、运营商以及云厂商等各类下游 客户陆续实现验证导入和量产交付，2025 年有望兑现可观收入。 2） 国产算力：美商务部升级 AI 芯片出口管制，规模化采购国产芯片或成培育 本土产业链唯一路径。自 2023 年 10 月 BIS 发布最新禁令以来，国产 AI 芯片在 智算中心、运营商、互联网等下游领域落地进展喜人，昇腾、寒武纪、海光等国 内头部企业已经或即将有望实现从导入到批量的业务爆发。具体到上市公司层 面，寒武纪 2024 年第三季度营收已出现拐点，存货、预付款项环比继续明显增 加，产能端已验证改善， ...

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Unlisted Asset Injection - **Construction Idea**: During periods of tightened IPO reviews, companies may prefer mergers and acquisitions (M&A) to inject unlisted high-quality assets into listed entities[1][37][41] - **Construction Process**: 1. Identify companies with terminated or withdrawn IPO reviews since 2022[41] 2. Filter companies sharing the same controlling shareholder or actual controller with listed companies[41] 3. Exclude cases where unlisted companies are already partially consolidated into listed companies' financials[41] 4. Prioritize matching by industry for multiple listed companies under the same controller; if no match, consider cross-industry M&A[41] 5. Exclude stocks with a quick ratio in the bottom 30% of all A-shares[41] - **Evaluation**: This factor effectively identifies potential M&A targets, leveraging regulatory and market dynamics[41] - **Factor Name**: Overcapacity Industry Integration - **Construction Idea**: In overcapacity industries, M&A can enhance industry concentration and profitability by consolidating upstream and downstream assets[47][51] - **Construction Process**: 1. Select industries with the lowest capacity utilization rates based on recent industrial data, focusing on traditional manufacturing sectors[48][51] 2. Identify top three market-cap leaders in each sub-industry within these sectors[51] 3. Filter companies with ROE in the bottom 30% of their five-year historical range[51] 4. Exclude stocks with a quick ratio in the bottom 30% of all A-shares[51] - **Evaluation**: This factor captures companies with strong incentives for M&A to address overcapacity and improve financial performance[51] - **Factor Name**: Long-term Undervalued Companies' Market Value Management - **Construction Idea**: Long-term undervalued companies with below-industry-average PB ratios may pursue M&A to enhance valuation under regulatory guidance[57][60] - **Construction Process**: 1. Identify companies with 12 consecutive months of PB below their industry average as of November 28, 2024[57][60] 2. Exclude stocks with a quick ratio in the bottom 30% of all A-shares[60] 3. Select the 20 stocks with the lowest PB ratios from the filtered list[60] - **Evaluation**: This factor aligns with regulatory trends and identifies companies with strong valuation improvement incentives[60] Factor Backtesting Results - **Unlisted Asset Injection Factor**: - **Portfolio Return**: 54.0% (September 24, 2024 - November 28, 2024)[42] - **Excess Return over Wind All A Index**: 25.2%[42] - **Overcapacity Industry Integration Factor**: - **Portfolio Return**: 43.5% (September 24, 2024 - November 28, 2024)[52] - **Excess Return over Wind All A Index**: 14.7%[52] - **Long-term Undervalued Companies' Market Value Management Factor**: - **Portfolio Return**: 33.1% (September 24, 2024 - November 28, 2024)[60] - **Excess Return over Wind All A Index**: 4.3%[60]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The market activity index for the top 50 cities decreased to 16.8, down 1 point week-on-week, marking two consecutive weeks of decline. However, the activity in 10 cities increased, with Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Changsha seeing rises of over 2 points [3] - The rolling month-on-month decline in the second-hand housing price index for the top 50 cities narrowed to -0.13%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a continuous reduction in the rate of price decline over four weeks [4] - New and second-hand housing transaction volumes increased, with new housing transaction area in 30 key cities reaching 3.52 million square meters, up 23.6% week-on-week, and second-hand housing transaction area in 13 key cities reaching 2.4 million square meters, up 4.3% week-on-week [5] Summary by Sections Market Activity - The activity index for the top 50 cities is currently at 16.8, with first-tier cities averaging 29.5, new first-tier cities at 19.0, and second-tier cities at 14.3. The decline in second-tier city activity has negatively impacted the overall index [3][16] Price Trends - The rolling month-on-month decline in the second-hand housing price index has narrowed, with five cities experiencing price increases. The cumulative decline since the new policy on September 26 is 1.67%, with cities like Shenzhen and Chengdu showing signs of price stabilization [4][8] Policy Developments - Recent policy announcements include the cancellation of ordinary housing standards in Chongqing and the emphasis on improving housing quality in Guizhou, which aims to accelerate the construction of high-quality housing [6][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies such as Vanke A, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments, as well as intermediary firms like Beike and Wo Ai Wo Jia, due to expected performance exceeding market expectations [10]

我们认为汽车座椅汽车座椅国产化汽车座椅国产化这个是个重要的重要的拐点汽车座椅国产化汽车座椅外包化重要拐点上海研普汽车座椅龙头的有力竞争者当然我们那个一会儿那个我们那个我们同事华东会讲金杯其实汽车座椅国产化我们首选是推上海研普其实呢汽车座椅呢其实还有还有很多标的哈 包括金杯汽车也有汽车座椅金杯等等一会儿就是我们这个金杯的逻辑有很多汽车座椅它的一个逻辑那个我们的华东老师会汇报那么我们认为那个回到上海研普我觉得它是这个我们认为这部汽车座椅国产化外包化的最大受益者市值有数倍空间天花板打开估值有个利润估值双向扩张 另外我们也面重大推荐的浙江龙泰浙江龙泰那个就是说我们一会儿我们的陈光老师又给大家更新一下这个我们认为他的成长逻辑很清晰成长逻辑很清晰就是特斯拉车到非特斯拉这个乐事控管理到非乐事控管理就是从汽车到低空到人形机器人成长非常清楚所以汽车零部件 我们跟所有的跟市场主流的观点不一样那么其实你们店还是有比较大的一个机会比较大的机会好那么下面其实后面其实我们还有很多的公司推荐那么我就不展开下面就是说可能会请陈黄老师更新一下浙江龙泰的一个正好前面推了最近还回调的有回调正好又到了一个比较好的上车的 一个时点和一个机会好 那么把 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690) [1][4][7] Core Views - Meituan's Q3 2024 revenue reached 935.8 billion yuan (YoY +22.4%), exceeding consensus expectations by 1.7%, driven by stronger-than-expected core local commerce revenue [1] - Non-IFRS net profit was 128.3 billion yuan (YoY +124.0%), surpassing consensus by 10.1%, with a Non-IFRS profit margin of 13.7% (YoY +6.2pct, QoQ -2.8pct) [1] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3369/3898/4469 billion yuan and Non-IFRS profits of 417/539/673 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.9/17.7/14.2 [1][7] Core Local Commerce - Core local commerce revenue in Q3 2024 was 693.7 billion yuan (YoY +20.2%), 1.5% above consensus, with delivery orders reaching 70.8 billion (YoY +14.5%) [1] - Delivery revenue was 277.8 billion yuan (YoY +20.9%), 14.2% above consensus, driven by changes in accounting, increased merchant adoption of Meituan delivery, and higher long-distance, nighttime, and large-item orders [1] - Operating profit for core local commerce was 145.8 billion yuan (YoY +44.4%), 13.7% above consensus, with an operating margin of 21.0% (YoY +3.5pct, QoQ -4.1pct) [1] Food Delivery - Food delivery revenue was 467.1 billion yuan (YoY +17.0%), 2.9% below consensus, with total orders reaching 61.5 billion (YoY +12.3%, daily average of 66.86 million) [1] - Average revenue per order was 7.59 yuan (YoY +4.2%), driven by higher-than-expected delivery and advertising revenue, partially offset by lower AOV [1] - Operating profit for food delivery was 88.3 billion yuan (1.44 yuan per order, YoY +29.1%), with an OPM of 18.9% (YoY +1.8pct, QoQ -0.8pct), 0.9pct above consensus [1] Instashopping - Instashopping revenue was 66.9 billion yuan (YoY +39.5%), with total orders reaching 9.3 billion (YoY +32%, daily average of 10.76 million), achieving slight profitability [1] In-store, Hotel & Travel - In-store, hotel & travel revenue was 159.8 billion yuan (YoY +23.0%), 2.1% above consensus, with GTV growth of 23%, 1.5% above consensus [1] - Operating profit for this segment was 52.2 billion yuan (YoY +29.0%), with an OPM of 33.2% (YoY +1.5pct, QoQ -2.0pct), 0.8pct below consensus [1] New Business - New business revenue in Q3 2024 was 242.0 billion yuan (YoY +28.9%), 8.3% below consensus, with an operating loss of 10.3 billion yuan (YoY -79.9%, QoQ -21.9%), 42.4% better than consensus [2] - The operating loss margin was 4.2% (YoY +23.0pct, QoQ +1.9pct), with Meituan优选 (preferred selection) contributing significantly to the reduction in losses [2] - Overseas business investments are expected to increase significantly, with full-year new business losses projected at 72-73 billion yuan, aiming for breakeven by 2026-2027 [2] Financial Summary - Gross profit was 367.5 billion yuan (YoY +36.2%), 3.5% above consensus, with a gross margin of 39.3% (YoY +4.0pct), 0.6pct above consensus [6] - Sales expenses were 179.5 billion yuan (YoY +6.2%), 5.5% above consensus, with a sales expense ratio of 19.2% (YoY -2.9pct, QoQ +1.2pct) [6] - R&D expenses were 52.9 billion yuan (YoY flat), 17.3% below consensus, with an R&D expense ratio of 5.7% (YoY -1.3pct, QoQ -0.8pct) [6] - Administrative expenses were 28.0 billion yuan (YoY +10.2%), in line with expectations, with an administrative expense ratio of 3.0% (YoY and QoQ flat) [6] Investment Recommendations - Meituan's strong competitive position in food delivery and instashopping, coupled with its ability to innovate and optimize efficiency, is expected to drive continued revenue growth and profit extraction [7] - The company's strategic focus on differentiated product selection and overseas expansion is likely to support long-term growth, with profitability expected to improve in the coming years [7]

Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as **Positive** [1] Core Views - The report highlights the importance of **overlooked changes** in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly in **innovative drugs and medical devices** [1] - The industry is expected to benefit from **marginal policy impacts** such as **medical insurance prepayment** and **commercial insurance strengthening**, which will drive attention towards the sector [5] - The report suggests that **mid-level policies** like **fiscal-friendly policies** will be more sensitive to market movements, and the industry is likely in a **bottoming phase** [5] - **Short-term recommendations** focus on **upstream pharmaceutical sectors** including **life sciences, CXO, and APIs**, while **stable sectors** include **large infusion, CNS drugs, OTC traditional Chinese medicine, and pharmaceutical distribution** [5] Monthly Review (November 2024) - **Pharmaceutical Index Performance**: The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by **2.31%** in November 2024, outperforming the CSI 300, which rose by **0.66%** [3][11] - **Sub-sector Performance**: - **Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Decoction Pieces** saw the highest increase at **15.7%**, followed by **Pharmaceutical Distribution** at **8.0%**, and **Chemical Preparations** at **5.2%** [16] - **Medical Services** was the only sub-sector to decline, dropping by **0.5%** [16] - **Top Performers**: - **Haooubo** led with a **244.2%** increase, followed by **Rejing Bio** at **77.0%**, and **Doctor Glasses** at **55.1%** [21] - **Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical** was the worst performer, declining by **38.6%** [21] - **Valuation Changes**: - The overall PE ratio of the pharmaceutical sector stood at **27.81x** as of November 30, 2024, up by **0.72** from October 31, 2024 [28] - The valuation premium of the pharmaceutical sector relative to the CSI 300 increased to **135%**, up by **4.3%** from the previous month [28] December 2024 Industry Outlook - **Innovative Drugs and Devices**: The report is optimistic about **overlooked segments** in innovative drugs and devices, driven by **medical insurance prepayment** and **commercial insurance strengthening** [36] - **Upstream Pharmaceutical Sectors**: **Life sciences, CXO, and APIs** are recommended as **offensive plays**, while **large infusion, CNS drugs, OTC traditional Chinese medicine, and pharmaceutical distribution** are seen as **stable plays** [36] Sub-sector Analysis Innovative Drugs - **Industry Changes**: The 2024 National Medical Insurance Drug List adjustment saw **89 out of 117** new drugs successfully negotiated, with an average price reduction of **63%** [38] - **Recommendations**: - **Beta Pharma**: Expected to benefit from the commercialization of **Befotini** and **Ensartinib** [38] - **Rongchang Bio**: Positive outlook on **Telitacicept** and **Vedotin** [38] - **Kelun Pharma**: Growth driven by **innovative drugs** and **synthetic biology** [38] Generic Drugs - **Industry Changes**: The 10th batch of centralized procurement rules tightened, with stricter **qualification requirements** and **reduced number of入围企业** [40] - **Recommendations**: - **Humanwell Healthcare**: Strong growth in **CNS drugs** [40] - **Jiudian Pharmaceutical**: Continued growth in **Loxoprofen** and **gel patches** [40] APIs - **Industry Changes**: The API sector is in a **bottoming phase**, with some companies entering a **restocking phase** [43] - **Recommendations**: - **Guobang Pharma**: Strong performance in **veterinary APIs** [43] - **Xianju Pharma**: Growth in **steroid hormone APIs** [43] CXO - **Industry Changes**: The CXO sector is showing signs of **operational improvement**, with **order growth** and **capacity utilization** improving [45] - **Recommendations**: - **WuXi AppTec**: Strong order growth in **TIDES** and **small molecule CDMO** [45] - **Tigermed**: Steady growth in **MNC orders** and **biotech MRCT demand** [45] Scientific Services - **Industry Changes**: The scientific services sector rose by **5.0%** in November, outperforming the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index by **2.7%** [48] - **Recommendations**: - **Bide Pharm**: Strong growth potential in **overseas markets** [48] - **Haier Bio**: Improved profitability and **operational efficiency** [48] Pharmaceutical Distribution - **Industry Changes**: The distribution sector rose by **8.0%** in November, outperforming the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index by **5.7%** [50] - **Recommendations**: - **Shanghai Pharma**: Improved **operational quality** and **profitability** [50] - **Jiuzhitang**: Strong growth in **CSO** and **medical device distribution** [50] Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) - **Industry Changes**: The **TCM price index** has been declining since July 2024, easing **gross margin pressure** [53] - **Recommendations**: - **Dong-E-E-Jiao**: Strong growth in **tonic products** [53] - **Lingrui Pharma**: Stable growth in **orthopedic patches** [53] Medical Devices - **Industry Changes**: The medical device sector is expected to benefit from **insurance reimbursement** and **innovation-driven growth** [56] - **Recommendations**: - **Xinhua Medical**: Strong growth in **state-owned enterprise reform** [56] - **BGI Genomics**: Rapid growth in **new sequencing products** [56] Chain Pharmacies - **Industry Changes**: The pharmacy sector is undergoing **industry consolidation**, with **market share concentration** increasing [59] - **Recommendations**: - **Yifeng Pharmacy**: Strong growth in **OTC drugs** and **prescription drugs** [59] - **Dashenlin**: High profitability in **ginseng-based products** [59]

Group 1: Cabinet Characteristics - Trump's cabinet appointments are characterized by rapid nominations, with 27 cabinet-level officials proposed, 25 of whom have been nominated as of November 29, 2024, minimizing Senate influence[4] - The cabinet is notably younger, with 6 members born in the 1980s and 6 in the 1970s, reflecting a shift away from experienced political figures[4] - High political loyalty is evident, as many nominees supported Trump during the 2020 election fraud controversy, indicating a preference for loyalty over experience[5] Group 2: Policy Directions - The cabinet is aligned with MAGA principles, advocating for a hardline stance on China, including tariffs and reduced taxes, with several members supporting aggressive trade policies[6] - Key cabinet members have Wall Street backgrounds, suggesting a likelihood of deregulation in the financial sector, with figures like Treasury Secretary Bessent advocating for tax cuts and a "3-3-3" economic growth plan[7] - Support for traditional energy and opposition to climate regulations is prominent, with Energy Secretary Wright representing a pro-fossil fuel agenda[7] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include unexpected deterioration in US-China trade relations and heightened political tensions between the two parties, which could impact policy implementation[11]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is at 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, indicating marginal improvement in supply and demand indicators[2] - The production index is at 52.4%, reflecting continued acceleration in manufacturing production, with general equipment and automotive sectors showing indices above 54.0%[3] - New orders index rose to 50.8%, marking the first expansion since May, while new export orders index is at 48.1%[6] Group 2: Economic Policy and Market Outlook - Recent policy measures across various sectors, including monetary and real estate, are expected to create a favorable financial environment for high-quality economic development[2] - A-shares are likely to benefit from increased risk appetite, with a focus on small-cap growth and technology stocks, particularly in the ChiNext and STAR Market[2] - Fixed income markets are expected to see 10-year government bond yields remain stable, with credit spreads likely to narrow[2] Group 3: Sector Performance and Demand Trends - The automotive sector shows recovery in production capacity utilization, with full-steel tire operating rates increasing sharply[5] - Domestic demand is recovering, driven by policies promoting consumption upgrades, with over 30 million participants in the "old for new" consumption program, generating over 400 billion yuan in sales[6] - The real estate market is stabilizing, with sales area in 30 major cities showing signs of recovery[6] Group 4: Price Index and Profitability Concerns - The purchasing price index for raw materials is at 49.8%, down 3.6 percentage points, indicating a decline in manufacturing raw material costs[10] - The producer price index is at 47.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, suggesting downward pressure on corporate profitability due to weak demand and input cost fluctuations[11] - Industrial profits for large-scale enterprises fell by 10.0% year-on-year in October, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability[12]

- The report mentions the use of the GDPNOW model for macroeconomic forecasting, which predicts Q4 2024 GDP growth at 5.0%, showing stable marginal changes in short-term economic forecasts[25][7] - The AI price-volume model is utilized to assess short-term industry configurations, extracting trend, volatility, and price-volume characteristics from daily data, and employing deep neural networks for predictive scoring standardized within the [-1,1] range[17][21] - BARRA style factors are analyzed, indicating a preference for stocks with strong profitability during market adjustments, while avoiding high volatility and high turnover assets. Small-cap stocks are favored over large-cap stocks in the short term[35][36][37] - The report tracks weekly changes in industry ROE and net profit growth expectations, highlighting sectors like real estate and textiles for their leading growth in net profit expectations[29][30] - The report monitors fund positions, showing active equity funds increased exposure to consumer sectors, particularly computers and retail, while reducing positions in manufacturing and media[33][34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the 2025 capital market will have "infinite scenery at the peak of danger," driven by tail risk resolution and monetary easing, leading to a pre-valuation uplift [3] - The report highlights the importance of addressing risks to better position for long positions, utilizing contrarian thinking to strengthen the 2025 annual strategy [7] Summary by Sections 1.1 2025 Swine Sector Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on three major changes, emphasizing "low cost" as a key factor [16] - The selected stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Shennong Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Tiankang Biological, with expectations of significant profitability in 2025 [16] - Key assumptions include a slow recovery of breeding sow capacity over the next two quarters, which may keep swine supply stable and prices favorable [17] 1.2 2025 Poultry Sector Investment Strategy - The strategy indicates that yellow chicken prices are expected to rise, while white chicken is at a low valuation [22] - Recommended stocks include Lihua Agricultural and Yisheng Livestock, with assumptions based on the recovery of restaurant consumption and overall economic activity [22][24] 1.3 2025 Animal Health Sector Investment Strategy - The report suggests that low valuations will meet post-cycle recovery, with increased vaccine sales but limited price recovery [27] - Recommended stocks include Keqian Biological and Ruipu Biological, focusing on high-end swine vaccines and strong competitive positions [27] 1.4 2025 Seed Industry Investment Strategy - The strategy notes a bottoming out of market conditions, with a focus on thematic and individual stock opportunities [37] - Key stocks to watch include Longping High-Tech, Dabeinong, and Qianyuan High-Tech, with assumptions regarding the expansion of genetically modified corn seed areas [37] Key Stock Risk Analysis - For Muyuan Foods, risks include lower-than-expected swine output and potential price drops, which could significantly impact profitability [50][52] - For Wens Foodstuff Group, similar risks apply, with a focus on monitoring swine output and price trends [53]