Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 35.55 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.2%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 13.5% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 4.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.3%, also surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 22.4% [1] - The company's AI revenue exceeded 300 million yuan in Q3 2025, marking a continuous increase from 150 million yuan in Q1 and 250 million yuan in Q2 [1] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 113.47 billion yuan in 2023, 126.90 billion yuan in 2024, 142.13 billion yuan in 2025E, 152.05 billion yuan in 2026E, and 160.66 billion yuan in 2027E, with year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 12%, 12%, 7%, and 6% respectively [2][11] - Adjusted net profit is projected to be 10.27 billion yuan in 2023, 17.72 billion yuan in 2024, 20.59 billion yuan in 2025E, 23.67 billion yuan in 2026E, and 26.74 billion yuan in 2027E, with significant growth rates [8][12] - The company has a total market capitalization of 295.7 billion HKD, with a current share price of 68.4 HKD [3] User Engagement and AI Integration - Daily Active Users (DAU) and Monthly Active Users (MAU) reached 416 million and 730 million respectively in Q3 2025, with year-on-year growth of 2.1% and 2.4% [7] - The average usage time per DAU was 134.1 minutes, indicating increased user engagement [7] - The AI-driven model OneRec has significantly improved user retention and engagement metrics [7] E-commerce Performance - E-commerce transaction volume and profitability exceeded expectations, with Q3 2025 GMV growing by 15.2% to 385 billion yuan [7] - Revenue from live streaming business was 9.57 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [7] - The online marketing services revenue reached 20.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.0% [7] AI Commercialization - The company’s AI revenue has shown a steep growth trajectory, with Q3 2025 AI revenue exceeding 300 million yuan [7] - The introduction of the OneRec model has enhanced advertising matching efficiency and customer ROI [7] - The AI technology has contributed approximately 4%-5% to the online marketing revenue in Q3 2025 [7] Profitability and Financial Ratios - The adjusted PE ratio is projected to decrease from 26.0 in 2023 to 10.0 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [12] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to stabilize around 20.6% in 2026 and 19.2% in 2027 [12]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 11 月 30 日 ——国际时政周评 回顾：中美元首通话；俄乌；美委。 未来一周：地缘冲突；美国内政及关税。 ❑ 未来一周关注： 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 中美元首再通话 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 1）中美元首再通话。此次通话从双方交流内容看，一方面是釜山会晤的延 续，同时也是双方已开始形成较稳定的定期沟通机制。随着今年以来双 方经贸会谈的推进，协商议题从关税议题进阶到战略资源&产业链议 题、再进阶到地缘政治议题，表明双方关系已逐步进入一个以稳定关 系、减少误解为目标的框架机制，而高层领导人的定期互动则是当前中 美关系缓和的保障和关键推动力。关注明年中美领导人的后续互动。 2）美乌会晤后将美方就结束乌克兰危机所提 28 点新计划修改并缩减为 19 点，美俄乌各方谈判持续。乌克兰和欧洲或在采取"踢皮球"策略，以 拖延美方此前提出的和平计划，为后续谈判争取时间和筹码。一方面俄 乌双方的战场攻击仍然继续，另一方面乌克兰代表团已访美、下周美国 特使将访俄，和谈继续推进。我们认为俄乌双方要在 ...

——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 11 月 27 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 11 月 27 日） | 新房（11 | 月 | 1 日-11 月 | 27 日） | 二手房（11 | 月 | 1 日-11 | 月 | 27 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 10 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | | 较 | 10 月 | | 样本城市 | | | | 样本城市 | -12% | | -收窄 | +10 PCT | | （39 城） | -33% | -扩大 | -6 PCT | （16 城） | | | | | | 一线城市 | -40% | -扩大 | -4 PCT | 一线城市 | -21% | | -收窄 | +6 PCT | | 城） （4 | | | | 城） （2 | | | | | | 二线城市 | -26% | -扩大 | -9 PCT ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [3][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in AI technology, particularly the introduction of new AI products by major players such as Alibaba and ByteDance, which are expected to enhance the domestic AI industry chain [1][6]. - The Singapore national AI project has adopted Alibaba's open-source model, indicating a shift in regional AI development strategies and showcasing the competitive edge of Chinese AI technologies [10][11]. - The launch of the Quark AI glasses by Alibaba represents a significant innovation in AI-enabled consumer electronics, integrating various functionalities and advanced imaging technologies [13][15]. - ByteDance is set to release an AI-native smartphone, which promises enhanced user experience through deep integration of AI capabilities, marking a new trend in mobile technology [20]. Summary by Sections Weekly Highlights - The report discusses the strategic shift of Singapore's AI project to utilize Alibaba's Qwen model, which has shown superior performance in Southeast Asian language processing [10][11]. Market Performance Review - In the fourth week of November 2025, the computer sector experienced a 3.08% increase, with notable stock performances from companies like Pingao Co. and Jiayuan Technology [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall increase of 3.3% during the week from November 24 to November 30, with significant developments including Changan's plan to establish a robotics subsidiary and Leap Motor's announcement of a sales target of 1 million units for 2026, marking it as the first new force car company in China to set such a target [1][9][28]. Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.4%, the Shenzhen A Index by 3.5%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.5% during the same week [2][10]. - Within the automotive industry, all secondary segments saw gains, particularly the automotive services and parts sectors, which rose by 3.9% and 3.7% respectively [13][10]. Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included Tianpu Co., which surged by 35.3%, and Chaojie Co., which increased by 28.4% [3][16]. - Among covered stocks, GAC Group saw a rise of 21.7%, while Kanglongda experienced a decline of 6.0% [19][3]. Industry Developments - Changan Automobile plans to invest 225 million yuan to establish a robotics company, aiming to enhance its capabilities in intelligent automotive technology [9][25]. - Great Wall Motors is set to establish its first complete vehicle factory in Europe, targeting an annual production capacity of 300,000 units by 2029 [26]. - Avita has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming for a second-quarter 2026 IPO [27]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles, such as BYD, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and Jianghuai Automobile [9]. - For commercial vehicles, it highlights Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, and Weichai Power as key investment opportunities [9].

Domestic Economic Outlook - November high-frequency data generally weaker than seasonal trends, indicating a need for more growth-stabilizing policies to support early 2026 economic recovery[2] - October industrial enterprise profit growth fell to -5.5%, a significant drop from 21.6% and 20.4% in August and September respectively, reflecting weak domestic demand[21] - November PMI data shows manufacturing PMI at 49.2, indicating continued contraction, while non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5[21] International Economic Insights - Revelio Labs predicts a loss of 9,000 non-farm jobs in the U.S. for October, primarily due to government employment declines from shutdowns[2] - December FOMC likely to implement a 25 basis point rate cut, with a hawkish outlook for future rate cuts in Q1 2026 due to inflation pressures[2] Asset Market Trends - Anticipated "spring rally" in the domestic market driven by technology growth, with potential buying opportunities in mid to late December[3] - U.S. AI and inflation trades are shifting from exclusion to resonance, suggesting a prolonged easing cycle to maintain the bull market until H2 2026[3] - December is expected to see hawkish rate cuts alongside rising interest rate expectations in Japan, leading to uncertainty in U.S. equities for the following month[3] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - Overall liquidity remains stable, with a slight increase in benchmark rates by approximately 0.79 basis points[23] - The central bank's open market operations have tightened, with a total reverse repo injection of 15,118 billion yuan for the week[23] Market Performance Overview - A-share market shows a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.40% this week, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.53%[42] - Gold prices have surpassed 4,200, while crude oil experienced slight declines[40]

Core Insights - The report suggests a high probability of an upward breakout in the market, leading to a cross-year rally, particularly due to anticipated positive economic policy adjustments from the upcoming political meetings [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of December as a strategic month for investment, with increased demand for equity funds expected due to the influx of new insurance premiums and favorable currency conditions [2][3] - The report identifies three main investment directions: infrastructure and real estate, service consumption, and self-sufficiency, with a focus on policy-driven adjustments [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report lists a "golden stock" combination including companies such as Luxshare Precision, Shengyi Technology, Century Huatong, Zhongji Xuchuang, Haiguang Information, China Merchants Bank, Alibaba, Zijin Mining, Xingye Silver Tin, and XGIMI Technology [2][4] - Specific insights into Luxshare Precision highlight its strong position in the Apple supply chain and its potential for robust growth across various sectors, including automotive [8][9] - Shengyi Technology is noted for its leading position in the CCL market, with expectations for continued high-end product upgrades and significant growth potential [12][13] - Century Huatong is recognized for its innovative gaming strategies and strong market position, particularly with its successful game releases [17] - Zhongji Xuchuang is positioned to benefit from increasing overseas demand for optical modules, with a strong production capacity [17] - Haiguang Information is expected to see growth in its DCU chip business due to domestic project implementations [24] - China Merchants Bank is highlighted for its prudent management and strong asset quality, with expectations for recovery in performance as economic conditions improve [24] - Alibaba's cloud business is projected to grow significantly, driven by AI demand and a strong competitive position in the market [24] - Zijin Mining is anticipated to benefit from favorable commodity price trends, particularly in gold and copper [24] - Xingye Silver Tin is positioned as a leading silver producer with significant growth potential [20] - XGIMI Technology is expected to see revenue growth driven by market recovery and product innovation [20] Earnings Forecasts - Companies such as Luxshare Precision, Shengyi Technology, Century Huatong, Zhongji Xuchuang, Haiguang Information, Alibaba, Zijin Mining, Xingye Silver Tin, and XGIMI Technology are projected to achieve over 30% stable growth in earnings this year [5] Financial Metrics - Luxshare Precision is projected to have an EPS of 1.85 in 2024, with a net profit growth rate of 22.03% [6] - Shengyi Technology's EPS is expected to rise from 0.72 in 2024 to 2.03 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 49.37% in 2024 [7] - Century Huatong's EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.16 in 2024 to 1.11 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 131.51% in 2024 [7] - Zhongji Xuchuang is expected to see significant growth in EPS from 4.61 in 2024 to 17.24 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 137.93% in 2024 [7] - Haiguang Information's EPS is projected to grow from 0.83 in 2024 to 2.01 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 52.87% in 2024 [7] - Alibaba's EPS is expected to rise from 3.91 in 2024 to 5.82 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 9.93% in 2024 [7] - Zijin Mining's EPS is forecasted to increase from 1.21 in 2024 to 2.24 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 51.76% in 2024 [7] - Xingye Silver Tin's EPS is projected to grow from 0.86 in 2024 to 1.39 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 57.82% in 2024 [7] - XGIMI Technology's EPS is expected to rise from 1.72 in 2024 to 5.20 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of -0.3% in 2024 [7]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 11 月 30 日 全球流动性回暖，但国内风险偏好回升或仍在蓄力 定期报告 ❑ 择时观点上，本周继续对后市维持震荡走势的判断，虽然外部流动性风险下 降带动全球风险偏好回升，但 A 股量能持续收缩叠加基本面数据未见好转， 国内风险偏好回升或仍处蓄力过程中。具体来看：一是交易维度信号偏弱， 目前全市场 Beta 离散度上行、PB 分化度下行、全 A 交易量能下行，三者均 给出偏向谨慎信号。即当前存量资金博弈期间，市场交易主线较为缺乏，不 论是科技方向还是红利方向，均未能形成新的趋势。二是基本面维度并未好 转，11 月 PMI 录得 49.20，为季节性偏弱水平（过去 10 年同月仅强于 2022 年），叠加社融增速见顶、CPI 数据未见好转，当前基本面"需求相对疲 弱、中上游价格修复"的结构性复苏局面较为明显，或不足以支撑权益市场 全面趋势上行。三是全球流动性危机警报或暂时解除，对 A 股利空影响减 弱。目前 CME"美联储观察"对 12 月美联储降息概率的预测达到 86.40%， 叠加美元持续走弱、美股小盘股短期领涨、贵金属与加密货币短期显著反弹 的现象，我们认为全球流 ...

商业航天司设立，整治内卷聚焦价格治理及储能 ——国内外产业政策周报（1130） 本周国内政策方面，商业航天司设立有望解决多部门职能交叉问题、整治内卷 聚焦价格治理及储能和动力电池方面、消费供需适配政策印发。海外政策方面， 本周中美元首通话，明年四月特朗普有望访华。 专题报告 相关报告 1、《今年以来服务消费政策部 署梳理，美政府结束停摆——国 内外产业政策周报（1116）》 2、《黄金税收政策调整，美国 与亚洲多国达成合作——国内 外产业政策周报（1103）》 3、《发布会召开介绍和解读四 中全会精神，有哪些增量信息？ — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （1025）》 4、《整治内卷聚焦价格治理， 特朗普威胁对华大幅加征关税 — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （1011）》 5、《钢铁建材等稳增长方案陆 续印发，美国众议院代表团访华 — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （0927）》 6、《三行业整治内卷进展突出， 中美元首会谈聚焦 TikTok—— 国内外产业政策周报（0920）》 7、《新型储能建设方案出台， 中美将在西班牙举行会谈—— 国内外产业政策周报（0913）》 8、《 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to experience an upward breakout in December, initiating a year-end rally, driven by positive economic policy signals from the upcoming political bureau and central economic work meetings [2][4][14] - The dual focus on the Shanghai 50 and Sci-Tech 50 indices is recommended as a favorable combination for capitalizing on the anticipated market rally [2][14][19] - Key investment opportunities include non-bank financials, resource price increases, service consumption, and technology sectors that emphasize self-sufficiency [2][14][19] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming political bureau and central economic work meetings in shaping economic policy, which is expected to be more proactive, enhancing confidence in economic recovery and corporate profitability [4][15][32] - The liquidity environment is projected to remain stable, with an influx of new capital expected in December, particularly from insurance funds and increased household savings, which may lead to a classic year-end rally [4][18][25] - The focus on cyclical sectors such as coal, basic chemicals, and steel, as well as high-end manufacturing like defense and power equipment, is emphasized due to their potential for performance improvement [5][21][22] Group 3 - The report suggests that the market's style will likely shift towards large-cap stocks, with a recommendation for indices such as CSI 300 and Sci-Tech 50, reflecting a preference for stability and potential growth [20][21] - The analysis indicates that sectors with low inventory levels, optimized production capacity, and improving economic conditions should be prioritized for investment [21][22][23] - The anticipated recovery in consumer spending, particularly in service sectors, is highlighted as a critical driver for economic growth, supported by fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption [17][32][33]