证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2026 年 02 月 02 日 阿里发布最强千问推理模型，阿里自研 AI 芯片真武亮相 商贸社服行业周报 消费品/商业 本周餐饮旅游板块指数本周下跌 3.34%，表现弱于沪深 300 指数(上涨 0.08%) 和创业板指数(下跌 0.09%)；商贸零售板块指数下跌 2.09%，表现弱于沪深 300 指数和创业板指数。 本周子板块相关观点：1）电商：看好阿里云收入加速增长及 AI 云业务成长潜 力，关注大模型及自研芯片催化，推荐阿里巴巴；龙头电商公司估值低位，推 荐拼多多、京东集团、唯品会。2）本地生活：美团竞争扰动不改公司长期竞争 力与投资价值。3）出行：看好后续旅游板块延续高景气度，旅游产业链上，推 荐关注休闲旅游&出境游相关性较强的 OTA、景区，其次是与出行人次高度相 关的交通，以及商旅需求驱动的酒店。 风险提示：宏观经济风险；行业竞争加剧；旅游行业系统性风险。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | 占比% | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 131 | 2.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 1292.5 | 1.2 | | 流通市值（十亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the liquor sector, particularly for Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while suggesting a cautious approach towards Yingjia and Luzhou Laojiao [9][18]. Core Insights - The report indicates that Kweichow Moutai's sales volume and price have exceeded expectations, with a traditional channel delivery progress of 25%, maintaining zero inventory in channels. The demand side shows a double-digit growth year-on-year, supporting the price stability at 1499 RMB [1][18]. - The liquor industry is experiencing a bifurcation in brand performance, with Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye showing positive sales trends, while other brands like Gujing and Yingjia are facing declines [9][18]. - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival for sales, with a tight supply-demand relationship expected to support prices, although a slight decline post-festival is anticipated [1][18]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Kweichow Moutai's payment progress is at 36%, with a delivery rate of approximately 20%, expected to increase to over 25%. The sales performance is strong, with a growth rate exceeding 10% year-on-year [2][11]. - Wuliangye's payment progress is at 60%, with a sales growth of 30% year-on-year, indicating a stable market condition similar to the previous year [3][14]. - Other brands like Fenjiu and Gujing are experiencing varied performance, with Fenjiu showing a slowdown in growth while Gujing's sales of certain products have declined significantly [2][3][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a bottom-fishing strategy for Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also recommending attention to Yingjia and Luzhou Laojiao for potential rebounds [9][18]. - It identifies four main lines for consumer goods: recovery in the restaurant chain, raw milk cycle turning point, high valuation and performance alignment, and bottom-fishing for companies like China Resources Beverage and Qiaqia Food [9][18]. Industry Valuation - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating Kweichow Moutai's market cap at 17544 million RMB with a PE ratio of 20, while Wuliangye has a market cap of 4076 million RMB with a PE ratio of 17 [20].

百强 26 年 1 月销售额负同比较上月收窄 3pct 至-25%，环比等于过去八年同期均值 26 年 1 月百强房企销售数据解读 周期/房地产 证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 摘要：据相关统计数据，百强房企 26 年 1 月单月销售额同比负增速较上月收窄 3pct 至-25%；1 月单月销售额环比-47%，等于过去八年同期环比均值（-47%）； 结构上，TOP1-10/11-30/ 31-50/ 51-100 房企 26 年 1 月销售额同比增速较上月 分别增加 1pct/减少 4pct/增加 17pct/增加 14pct 至-12%/-32%/-35%/-37%。 图 1：百强房企销售情况 资料来源：中国指数研究院，克而瑞，公司公告，统计局，招商证券等; 风险提示：相关统计数据或有偏离，政策改善不及预期，销售下滑超预期，市 场流动性改善不及预期等。 推荐（维持） % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 4.6 11.1 23.9 相对表现 3.4 -2.3 0.6 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -10 0 10 20 30 Feb/25 May/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Jerry Holdings with a rating of "Buy" [1][2]. Core Insights - Jerry Holdings is a leading oil service equipment manufacturer in China, with core businesses spanning high-end oil and gas equipment manufacturing, engineering and technical services, natural gas equipment, and new energy sectors. The company has been actively developing new businesses in natural gas equipment and gas turbine units, establishing a multi-driver growth pattern [1][8]. - The global oil service industry is experiencing a supply-side constraint due to slow recovery in capital expenditure and workforce size among international oil service companies, with Schlumberger's capacity only at 50% of its peak in 2014. This results in limited supply elasticity in the short term [2]. - On the demand side, global oil and gas exploration and development expenditures remain at historical median levels, with a rigid demand for equipment and services driven by natural depletion rates of oil fields. The capital expenditure for oil and gas is expected to maintain long-term resilience under energy security constraints [2][59]. - The gas turbine market is characterized by a persistent supply-demand mismatch, with a robust outlook for continued growth driven by explosive increases in global electricity demand and accelerated data center construction [2][54]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Jerry Holdings has established itself as a leader in the domestic oil service equipment market, leveraging its integrated equipment and service advantages to expand into overseas markets such as North America and the Middle East. The company has seen rapid growth in its natural gas and gas turbine businesses, which are becoming significant growth curves [16][21]. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated strong resilience through cycles, with new orders increasing over 25 times since 2008. The stock of orders reached a historical high of 12.39 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting improved order execution efficiency [24][30]. - Revenue and net profit have shown a long-term upward trend, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.93% over the past decade, surpassing international oil service leaders [30][38]. Oil and Gas Equipment Business - Jerry Holdings maintains a solid position in high-end fracturing equipment, with significant overseas EPC contracts. The high-end equipment manufacturing segment accounted for 61.22% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 22.42% [41][44]. - The company is the only Chinese enterprise providing a complete set of fracturing equipment to the North American high-end market, holding nearly 50% of the domestic market share [45]. Gas Turbine Business - The gas turbine segment is emerging as a key growth driver, with significant breakthroughs in commercial applications. The company has secured multiple contracts exceeding 1 billion yuan in the North American market, enhancing its competitive edge in industrial and data center power supply [54][56]. - Jerry Holdings has developed a comprehensive Gas to Power solution, integrating gas source processing, gas boosting, clean power generation, and intelligent control [55][58]. Industry Outlook - The oil service industry is undergoing a deep supply adjustment, with demand resilience supporting a recovery in market conditions. The global oil service market is projected to reach 316.1 billion USD by 2024, although this remains below the average levels seen from 2006 to 2014 [59][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, indicating a potential for stabilization and improvement in operational pressures for banks in 2026 [2][5]. Core Insights - The banking sector has shown a "double opening red" phenomenon in both deposits and loans, with a structural difference in credit allocation. The signs of "deposit migration" are not significant, suggesting a stable deposit base [2][5]. - The total assets of the banking industry reached 471 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year growth. Major banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks reported asset growth rates of 11.0%, 4.7%, 9.7%, and 5.2%, respectively [3][14]. - The overall net interest margin is expected to decline further, but at a slower pace, indicating some relief in operational pressures. The banks have passed the phase of accelerated risk exposure and are nearing a "stock digestion period" [5][6]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Dynamics - The Financial Regulatory Bureau released data on the total assets and liabilities of the banking sector for 2025, showing a total asset growth of 8.0% year-on-year [3][14]. Industry Dynamics - Qingdao Bank and Xiamen Bank reported their 2025 performance, with Qingdao Bank achieving a net profit growth of 21.66% and an asset quality improvement, while Xiamen Bank also reported significant growth in total assets and loans [15][16]. Market Dynamics - The overall A-share market saw a decline of 1.59%, while the banking sector increased by 0.86%, indicating a defensive characteristic of the banking stocks [2][18]. Data Overview - The report highlights the central bank's net injection of 0.4 trillion yuan and the mixed movement of interest rates across different maturities, with short-term rates showing slight declines and long-term rates experiencing mixed trends [4][21][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Strongly Recommended" for key companies such as Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Sungrow Power Supply [1]. Core Insights - The recent release of the national capacity price policy for energy storage marks a significant step towards high-quality development in the energy storage sector. This policy establishes a capacity price mechanism for independent energy storage stations that support the safe operation of the power system [6][7]. - The capacity price will be based on local coal power capacity price standards and adjusted according to peak capacity, which is essential for ensuring stable power supply and promoting investment in energy storage [10][11]. - The demand for long-duration energy storage is expected to increase significantly, with independent energy storage becoming a major contributor to new installations [9][16]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 308 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 7,610.8 billion [2]. - The energy storage sector is experiencing rapid growth, with cumulative installed capacity expected to reach 136 GW/351 GWh by 2025, reflecting an 80% year-on-year increase in new installations [9][10]. Key Companies and Financial Metrics - **Ningde Times (300750.SZ)**: Market Cap: 1611.1 billion, 2024 EPS: 11.5, 2025 EPS: 14.9, 2025 PE: 23, PB: 5, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [1]. - **Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014.SZ)**: Market Cap: 132.3 billion, 2024 EPS: 2.0, 2025 EPS: 2.2, 2025 PE: 28, PB: 3, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [1]. - **Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ)**: Market Cap: 313.1 billion, 2024 EPS: 5.3, 2025 EPS: 5.9, 2025 PE: 26, PB: 7, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [1]. - **Huaibei Technology (688411.SH)**: Market Cap: 43.0 billion, 2024 EPS: 4.9, 2025 EPS: 5.5, 2025 PE: 43, PB: 10, Investment Rating: Not Rated [1]. - **Shenghong Co., Ltd. (300693.SZ)**: Market Cap: 11.9 billion, 2024 EPS: 1.4, 2025 EPS: 1.5, 2025 PE: 25, PB: 6, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [1]. - **Kehua Data (002335.SZ)**: Market Cap: 32.2 billion, 2024 EPS: 0.7, 2025 EPS: 1.2, 2025 PE: 53, PB: 5, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [1]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the energy equipment and new energy sector has shown significant growth, with a 12-month increase of 59.4% [4].

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 沃什当选与 PPI 提前转正，谁将成为下阶段市场主要矛盾 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面，1）"新质生产力"与"反内卷"取得实质性进展，2025 年工业企 业扭转了此前三年持续亏损局面，特别是高技术制造业的利润贡献率大幅提 升。2）开年以来，以有色为代表的大宗大幅涨价，预计 1 月 PPI 环比超预期 增长 0.3%，对应 1 月 PPI 同比回升至-1.2%，预计 PPI 或于 Q2 中后期转正。 海外方面，1）美联储 1 月议息会议并未进一步降息，本次会议中鲍威尔略显 鹰派。2）特朗普提名沃什为美联储下一任主席。3）伊朗局势紧张，贵金属与 有色大幅调整之际，油价依然走高。 资金经历跨月扰动，央行继续通过 OMO 操作释放流动性对冲资金缺口，对资 金面保持温和呵护取向，周度平均走势来看，以 DR001、007 以及 R001、 定期报告 相关报告 1、《PMI 淡季回落———2026 年 1 月 PMI 点评》2026-02-01 2、《如何看 2025 年财政数据 与 2026 年一季度财政节奏？》 2026-01-31 资产方面，1）沃什被任命下一届美联储主 ...

Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile in February, with a potential for stronger performance post-Spring Festival due to policy catalysts and the upcoming Two Sessions [2][3][26] - The focus will shift towards cyclical price increases and AI applications, particularly in sectors like oil and petrochemicals, construction materials, and steel [2][3][26] Industry and Sector Recommendations - Recommended sectors include cyclical and technology areas, with a focus on high-growth industries such as electronics (semiconductors), media (advertising, gaming, film), machinery (automation, engineering), power equipment (batteries, grid equipment, photovoltaic), basic chemicals, and social services [4][6][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors benefiting from the 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly in construction and infrastructure projects [3][4][21] Liquidity and Capital Supply - February is anticipated to see continued net inflows of incremental capital, with foreign capital expected to flow in before the Spring Festival and financing likely to rebound afterward [5][19] - Despite a positive trend in resident capital inflows, significant reductions in ETF holdings have offset these inflows, leading to a challenging trading environment [5][19] Economic and Earnings Trends - The report highlights a recovery in industrial profits, with a positive outlook for sectors experiencing price increases, such as industrial metals and AI-driven technology [6][18] - The earnings growth forecast remains focused on high-growth areas, particularly those benefiting from cyclical price increases and export advantages in mid-to-high-end manufacturing [6][18][21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The competition for AI entry points is intensifying, with major players like Baidu and Tencent launching cash red envelope activities during the Spring Festival [1] - The commercial aerospace industry is experiencing significant catalysts, with international space competition escalating [1] Industry Overview - The industry comprises 285 stocks, with a total market capitalization of 4,533.1 billion and a circulating market value of 4,028.0 billion [2] - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 10.9%, 14.0%, and 38.2% respectively, while the relative performance is 9.7%, 0.6%, and 14.9% [4] AI Sector Developments - Major AI companies are launching new products and initiatives, such as Alibaba's QoderWork, a desktop agent tool designed for local task execution without cloud data upload [17] - Investment suggestions include focusing on leading AI model manufacturers like Alibaba and various vertical AI application companies [19] Commercial Aerospace Developments - SpaceX is applying to deploy a constellation of up to 1 million satellites to support advanced AI applications, aiming to provide unprecedented computational capabilities [20] - The Artemis 2 mission is set to launch on February 6, 2026, marking a significant step in NASA's lunar exploration efforts [21] - The Chinese commercial rocket sector is emphasizing reusable technology as a key focus for 2026, aiming to enhance the country's capabilities in space access [23] Market Performance Review - In the third week of 2026, the computer sector experienced a decline of 4.77%, with notable gainers including *ST Lifan and Wangsu Science & Technology [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The latest data shows a significant decline in the area of second-hand housing contracts, with a year-on-year decrease of 10% in the most recent week [1]. - New housing contracts have also seen a year-on-year decline of 26% in the latest week, while second-hand housing contracts have decreased by 10% [3]. - The overall trend indicates that the new housing market is experiencing a more substantial contraction compared to the second-hand market, with new housing contracts down 57% and second-hand contracts down 19% since January [3]. Summary by Sections New Housing Contracts - The year-on-year decline in new housing contracts has expanded, with a decrease of 24% across sample cities [4]. - The performance of new housing contracts in first-tier cities shows a decline of 21%, while second-tier cities have seen a 27% drop [4]. - The overall new housing contract area is at a low level compared to the same period over the past five years [9][12]. Second-hand Housing Contracts - The second-hand housing market has shown a year-on-year increase of 7% in contract areas, indicating a recovery trend [4]. - First-tier cities have reported a 9% increase in second-hand housing contracts, while second-tier cities have seen an 8% increase [4]. - The second-hand housing market is currently performing better than the new housing market, with a higher year-on-year performance [14]. Market Indicators - The average number of viewings for second-hand properties in 12 sample cities has increased by 60.9% compared to December, indicating a positive shift in market activity [5][40]. - The liquidity outlook for January 2026 suggests a tightening trend, which may impact market dynamics [5][45]. - The proportion of listings with price increases has risen slightly, indicating a potential stabilization in pricing trends [5][47]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative area of land transactions in 2025 has shown a year-on-year decline of 13%, but the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous months [20]. - The average transaction price for land has increased by 1% year-on-year, reflecting a slight recovery in land values [20]. - The land acquisition data indicates varying performance across different city tiers, with first-tier cities experiencing a more significant decline [20].