证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2026 年 2 月 8 日 春节海外：机会更多，还是风险更大？ ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面，春节错位，预计 1 月 CPI 同比 0.2%；1 月有色、能化接连上涨， 预计 PPI 环比增长 0.3%，对应 PPI 同比-1.2%。 海外方面，1）沃什提名美联储主席恐陷入程序僵局。2）高市或即将摆脱联合 执政的掣肘，其反对过早加息、主张弱日元，实则利好全球流动性。 资产方面，1）近期特朗普强调提名沃什因其支持降息，进而，美股进一步重 挫风险有限。预计中选前，全球不太会出现因日本套息交易反转及美联储政策 收紧的流动性冲击，3-9 月地方中选密集期，美股大概率中枢上移。2）国内科 技等方向需观察美股走势，风险有限，但机会或在 Q2；PPI 或于 Q2 提前转 正，叠加"十五五"碳减排助力，通胀方向资产均将受益，目前仍是"交易科 技、重视通胀、关注地产消费"思路。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《PMI 淡季回落———2026 年 1 月 PMI 点评》2026-02-01 2、《如何看 2025 年财政数据 与 2026 年一季度财政节奏？》 2026-01-31 3 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 最新一周二手房网签面积较去年农历同期下降 12% ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 2 月 5 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等；备注：1 月以来新房和二手房网签面积农历（十 一月十三至腊月十八）同比分别为-53%/-18%，最新一周新房和二手房网签面积农历（腊 月初五至十八）同比降幅分别较上周+4 PCT/-2 PCT 至-22%/-12%。 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 2 月 5 日） | 新房（1 | | 月 | 1 日-2 月 | 5 日） | 二手房（1 | | 月 | 1 日-2 月 | 5 日） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | | 同比 | 较 | 12 月 | 城市能级 | | 同比 | 较 | 12 月 | | | 样本城市 | | -6% | -收窄 | +17 PCT | 样本城市 | | ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2026 年 2 月 8 日 节前维持看好观点 ——A 股趋势与风格定量观察 20260208 1. 当前市场观察 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 王禹哲 S1090525080001 wangyuzhe@cmschina.com.cn 2. 市场最新观点 ❑ 风格轮动：本周末成长价值轮动模型建议超配成长，小盘大盘轮动模型建议 超配大盘，故综合推荐大盘成长风格。 风险提示：择时和风格轮动模型结论基于合理假设前提下结合历史数据统计规 律推导而出，市场环境变化下可能导致出现模型失效风险。 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 定期报告 ❑ 择时观点上，节前维持偏乐观的观点。国内层面，1 月制造业 PMI 录得 49.30，处于历史中性水平，虽仍呈现"上游强于下游"的结构性问题，但 与前期并无明显变化，在无超预期走弱的情况下，权益市场对此类信号或 趋于钝化。海外层面，地缘风险短期有所下降，叠加美股部分科技巨头财 报披露后利空/利好靴子落地，美股纳指有所反弹、道指持续新高，短期内 全球风险偏好或仍将处于高位。量能情绪上，节前谨慎以及获利了结情绪 ...

行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 235 | 4.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 7908.7 | 7.1 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 6895.0 | 6.8 | 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 钽铟钨铼加速上涨 等降波加仓 金属行业周报 周期/金属及材料 美国启动关键矿产战略储备的计划，召开关键矿产部长级会议，和非洲主要矿 业国关键矿产合作，和大型矿企、矿贸加强合作，美资源保护的意图愈发明显。 有色资源大叙事没有变化，维持长期看好有色资源股配置，逢调整加仓。近日 龙头股已经累计下跌 20%左右，向下空间不大，难得加仓位置。等待降波夯实 底部。此外，关注补涨标的和加速上涨的小金属，重点关注钽铟钨铼等。中长 期重点关注金银铜铝稀土钨铀钽锂钴镁镍等品种。此外，关注科技成长相关新 材料标的。 SMM 统计 2 月 5 日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存 83.6 万吨，环比提高 5.4 万吨，下游逐步进入传统淡季。本周一沪铝受贵金属影响以跌停收盘，随后 在 2.3-2.4 万元/吨区间内震荡。春节前后需关注铝锭累库幅 ...

本周关注：航运方面，油轮景气度维持高位；基础设施方面，优选个股布局红 利资产；航空方面，关注 26 年行业基本面上行趋势；快递方面，关注 26 年行 业竞争格局和估值修复潜力。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 129 | 2.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3248.4 | 2.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3051.1 | 3.0 | 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 油轮景气度维持高位，民航春运首周量价双升 招商交通运输行业周报 周期/交通运输 1、《招商交通运输行业周报—地缘 情绪推升油运运价，三大航发布 2025 年业绩预告》2026-02-01 2、《招商交通运输行业周报—油轮 制裁力度仍在加大，2025 年快递业务 量同比增长 13.6%》2026-01-25 3、《招商交通运输行业周报—油运 景气度高涨，国常会研究部署多项促 消费举措》2026-01-18 | 王春环 | S1090524060003 | | --- | --- | | | wangchunhuan@cmsch ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall increase of +0.5% from February 1 to February 7, with various companies reporting significant delivery numbers for January, including Geely with 260,000 units (+14% month-on-month), Chery with 200,000 units (120,000 units exported), and Xiaomi with over 39,000 units (+70% year-on-year) [1][2][6]. - Key developments include BYD announcing its new brand "Linghui" focused on B-end markets, Tesla's third-generation robot set to debut with a production target of one million units, and Waymo completing a $16 billion funding round [6][19][20]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's secondary segments mostly saw gains, with the automotive services sector leading at +0.9%, while passenger and commercial vehicle segments rose by +0.5% and +0.4%, respectively [2][9]. - Individual stock performance varied, with notable gains for Kailong Gaoke (+72.8%), Xingmin Zhitong (+21.3%), and Yinlun Co. (+17.1%), while Spring X Precision (-13.6%) and Jingjin Electric (-10.2%) faced significant declines [12][14]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the automotive industry's growth potential, particularly in electric vehicles and autonomous driving technologies, with companies like Xpeng and WeRide making strides in new vehicle launches and strategic partnerships [19][22][24]. - Investment recommendations focus on companies with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles, such as BYD and Great Wall Motors, as well as commercial vehicle manufacturers like Yutong Bus and China National Heavy Duty Truck [6][19].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2026 年 2 月 8 日 利率价量择时观点维持看多 ——利率市场趋势定量跟踪 20260206 利率市场结构变化 - 10 年期国债到期收益率录得 1.81%，相对上周下降 0.1BP。当前 利率水平、期限和凸性结构读数分别为 1.56%、0.49%、-0.02%， 从均值回归视角看，目前处于水平结构点位较低、期限结构点位 中性偏低、凸性结构点位偏低的状态。 利率价量周期择时信号：5 年期看多、10 年期看多、30 年期看多 美债价量周期择时信号：看多 - 基于美国市场 10 年期国债 YTM 数据判断的多周期择时信号为： 长周期向下突破、中周期向下突破、短周期无信号。综合来看， 当前合计下行突破 2 票、上行突破 0 票，最终信号的综合评分结 果为看多。 国内利率价量多周期择时策略表现 - 自 2024 年底以来，基于 5/10/30 年期国债 YTM 价量趋势的交易策 略年化收益率分别为 2.27%、2.53%、2.69%，最大回撤为 0.69%、 0.94%、1.71%，收益回撤比为 3.85、4.37、2.93，相对业绩基准的 超额收益率为 0.65%、1.05%、1. ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 AI 军备竞赛持续升级，关注高壁垒软件及云服务 计算机周观察 20260208 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 海外互联网大厂发布季报，资本开支持续超预期。过去一周，微软、META、 亚马逊、谷歌等海外科技大厂先后发布季度财报，四家公司明确表示将持续扩 大 AI 领域的相关投资。SaaS 商业模式遭受质疑，关注高壁垒软件及云服务。 ❑ 亚马逊 AWS 超预期大增，资本开支持续扩大影响自由现金流。亚马逊 25 财 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 285 | 5.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | | 3.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | | 3.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 2.2 8.8 26.8 相对表现 5.3 -4.1 6.0 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Feb/25 May/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 (%) 计算机 沪深300 相关报告 1、《板块配置进一步下降，服务器、 智驾获机 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent volatility in the market is primarily driven by the "Walsh trade," which has led to a rebound in the US dollar index and a significant decline in emerging markets and commodities [2][5][41] - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, has reached a point of value for investment, indicating potential for a rebound once the impact of the Walsh trade subsides or new catalysts emerge in the AI sector [7][25][44] - The report emphasizes that the market is expected to experience a period of fluctuation in February, with a stronger performance anticipated after the holiday compared to before [2][7][44] Group 2 - The report discusses the structural adjustment in the software industry following the release of Anthropic's AI plugin tool, which poses a threat to traditional software pricing models and has triggered a sell-off in related stocks [6][28][43] - It notes that the Chinese SaaS industry is still in its growth phase, with ongoing digital transformation demands across various sectors, positioning AI as an enabling tool rather than a direct disruptor of existing business models [40][43] - The report indicates that the valuation of technology stocks, particularly in Hong Kong, is at historically low levels, suggesting potential for valuation recovery as the regulatory environment improves [25][44] Group 3 - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including cyclical and technology sectors, with a focus on industries such as electronics, media, machinery, and power equipment, which are expected to benefit from ongoing policy support and seasonal consumption trends [7][44] - It highlights that the market is currently in a spring rally phase, recommending a growth style investment approach, with a preference for larger-cap stocks initially before shifting to smaller-cap stocks [7][44] - The report also points out that the recent volatility in the technology sector is exacerbated by concerns over aggressive capital expenditure plans from major tech companies, which may not yield short-term profitability [38][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the storage industry, suggesting that the overall performance of companies in the supply chain will be optimistic due to a tight supply situation expected to continue into 2027 [1]. Core Insights - The storage industry is projected to experience a significant increase in demand driven by AI applications, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% for global storage bits, particularly in data centers transitioning to a ZB-level expansion cycle [15][18]. - The supply side is characterized by limited new capacity in 2026, with a forecasted growth of about 20% in bit shipments for both DRAM and NAND, leading to a sustained supply-demand mismatch [49][56]. - The report highlights a notable increase in inventory levels among downstream manufacturers, with strategic stockpiling to address anticipated demand in 2026 [9][60]. - Price trends indicate a significant rise in contract prices for DRAM and NAND, with expectations of a 90-95% and 55-60% increase respectively in Q1 2026, driven by strong server demand [9][30]. Demand Side Summary - The demand for storage is expected to grow exponentially due to AI inference, with NAND becoming increasingly critical in data centers [10][15]. - The global storage market size is anticipated to reach nearly $300 billion in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39% [15][19]. - Data center storage capacity is projected to shift from EB to ZB levels, with significant contributions from AI-driven applications [18][22]. Supply Side Summary - Capital expenditures from major manufacturers are set to increase significantly in 2026, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron expected to invest $20 billion, $20.5 billion, and $13.5 billion respectively [49][56]. - Despite increased capital spending, effective capacity release is expected to be delayed until 2027, maintaining a seller's market [49][56]. - The report notes that the shipment growth for DRAM and NAND is expected to be around 20%, with server applications accounting for over 45% of shipments [50][51]. Inventory Side Summary - The report indicates a significant divergence in inventory levels across the supply chain, with tight inventory conditions expected to persist throughout 2026 [9][60]. - Downstream manufacturers, particularly in mainland China, are actively increasing their inventory levels to prepare for the anticipated supply-demand gap in 2026 [9][60]. Price Side Summary - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in storage prices, with significant increases in contract prices expected due to ongoing supply constraints and strong demand from AI applications [9][30]. - The overall price index for storage products has shown a rapid increase since the second half of 2025, with expectations of further price hikes across all categories [9][30]. Sales Side Summary - The report forecasts a substantial increase in revenue and profit for major manufacturers in the storage industry, driven by the ongoing demand surge and strategic inventory management [9][60]. - The overall industry revenue for DRAM and Flash is projected to reach $551.6 billion in 2026, reflecting a 134% year-on-year increase [9][60].