Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][5] Core Insights - Alibaba's revenue for FY2026Q2 reached 247.8 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was 10.4 billion yuan, down 72% [1] - The e-commerce segment shows steady growth in monetization rates, with a stable market share in food delivery and potential for improvement in profitability [1][5] - The cloud business exceeded expectations with significant revenue growth driven by strong demand in the AI cloud market, indicating a promising outlook for future growth [1][5] Financial Data Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected revenues for FY2024 to FY2028 are 941.2 billion yuan, 996.3 billion yuan, 1,062.5 billion yuan, 1,168.7 billion yuan, and 1,285.6 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 6%, 7%, 10%, and 10% [2][8] - **Adjusted EBITA**: Expected adjusted EBITA for FY2026 is 117.2 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decrease of 32% compared to FY2025 [2][8] - **Non-GAAP Net Profit**: Forecasted Non-GAAP net profits for FY2026 to FY2028 are 106.9 billion yuan, 166.6 billion yuan, and 201.8 billion yuan respectively, with a notable decline of 32% in FY2026 [2][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be 5.63 yuan for FY2026, with a PE ratio of 25.5 [2][9] Stock Performance - The stock has shown an absolute performance of 20% over the past 12 months, with a relative performance of -9.8% [4] Valuation - The target price is set at 185 HKD per share, with the current stock price at 158 HKD, indicating potential upside [3][5]

Group 1: International Factors Impacting Chinese Long Bond Rates - International factors are increasingly influential in determining China's long bond rates, especially under more open economic conditions[3] - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) identifies a shift in global liquidity dynamics, with non-bank financial institutions becoming the main players in international capital flows since 2008[10] - The BIS financial condition index (FCI) highlights two key factors: the "level factor" reflecting interest rates and the "risk factor" indicating market risk perceptions[11] Group 2: Recent Trends and Implications - Since 2021, the BIS's "level factor" has risen sharply due to inflation and tightening U.S. monetary policy, indicating a significant tightening of financial conditions[12] - The "risk factor" has shown slight tightening since 2021, impacting China's economic conditions, but this effect is expected to ease as major central banks begin lowering interest rates in Q4 2024[12] - A strong U.S. dollar has a negative correlation with China's 10-year government bond yields, with a correlation coefficient of -0.89 from January 2014 to September 2025, indicating that dollar strength significantly influences bond rates[15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing an 8.2% year-on-year increase, with a gross profit of 18.2 billion yuan, up 10.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.6 billion yuan, which is a 31.8% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The company has a strong cash position with net cash of 153.2 billion yuan and operating cash flow of 12.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 21.7% year-on-year growth [1]. - The classic games segment performed well, contributing to a revenue of 23.3 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, driven by self-developed games and several agency games [6][8]. - The company has a rich pipeline of upcoming games, including titles that have already gained traction in both domestic and international markets [6][8]. - The report anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 35.1 billion yuan, 38.5 billion yuan, and 42.5 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue forecast for the company is projected to grow from 103.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 130.1 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7% [2][9]. - The net profit is expected to grow from 29.4 billion yuan in 2023 to 42.5 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of around 10% [2][9]. - The report highlights a decrease in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio from 20.6 in 2023 to 14.2 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation over the forecast period [2][9]. Shareholder Information - The company has a total share capital of 3.168 billion shares, with a market capitalization of 67.35 billion Hong Kong dollars [3][6]. - The major shareholder, Shining Globe International Limited, holds a 45.17% stake in the company [3].

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 11 月 24 日 小核酸行业深度报告 产业多维度迎来突破，国内企业优势尽显 消费品/生物医药 本篇报告对小核酸产业进展进行分析，从产业趋势、催化节点等角度，认为当 下已经进入到前瞻布局小核酸的关键时刻。同时我们从小核酸的技术底层进行 探讨，认为中国企业在小核酸赛道上占据优势。进一步，我们通过复盘海外的 小核酸公司以验证上述结论，并提示相关标的的投资机会。 ❑ 风险提示：研发不及预期风险、商业化不及预期风险、支付政策变化风险、 竞争加剧风险。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 468 | 9.1 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 6341.8 | 6.2 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 5693.1 | 6.1 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -1.5 14.3 9.0 相对表现 1.8 0.6 -2.7 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Nov/24 Mar/25 Jul/25 Oct/25 (%) 生物医药 沪深300 相关报告 1、《I ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3][6] Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of 5.8 billion (+28.2% YoY) and adjusted net profit of 770 million (+11.7% YoY), with a net profit margin of 13.2% (-2.0 percentage points) [1][6] - Domestic revenue for the company's brand reached 2.91 billion (+19.3% YoY), while overseas revenue was 2.31 billion (+27.7% YoY). TOPTOY revenue surged to 570 million (+111.4% YoY) [1][6] - The company has a robust "1+3" moat strategy, combining a Chinese supply chain, global IP, global design, and global channels, which supports its domestic expansion and high growth in overseas markets [1][6] Financial Performance - The company expects significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 13.84 billion, 16.99 billion, 21.21 billion, 25.13 billion, and 29.27 billion for 2023 to 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 39%, 23%, 25%, 18%, and 17% [2][7] - Adjusted net profit is projected to grow from 2.39 billion in 2023 to 4.34 billion in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 101%, 13%, 10%, 23%, and 18% [2][7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.90 in 2023 to 3.45 in 2027 [2][7] Domestic Market Performance - In Q3, the domestic brand revenue was 2.91 billion, with same-store sales showing high single-digit growth. The company anticipates low double-digit growth in same-store sales for Q4 [1][6] - The company added 102 new stores in Q3, bringing the total to 4,407 stores [1][6] International Market Performance - The overseas brand revenue reached 2.31 billion, with same-store sales showing low single-digit growth. The U.S. market saw revenue growth exceeding 65% [1][6] - The company opened 117 new stores overseas in Q3, with a total of 3,424 stores by the end of the quarter [1][6] TOPTOY Performance - TOPTOY brand revenue reached 570 million in Q3, with a same-store sales growth in the mid-single digits and a net increase of 14 stores, totaling 307 stores [1][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for leading internet companies with strong performance and AI application capabilities, such as Tencent Holdings, Kuaishou, Bilibili, and Meitu [1][10]. Core Insights - The internet industry is witnessing a steady performance with significant growth in AI applications, as evidenced by the launch of various AI products by major companies [1][10]. - The report highlights the impressive financial results of several companies, indicating a robust recovery and growth trajectory in the sector [2][3][4][5]. Summary by Sections Important Announcements - BOSS Zhipin reported a total revenue of 2.163 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.17%, with a net profit of 775 million yuan, up 67.18% [2]. - Baidu Group's Q3 2025 revenue was 31.174 billion yuan, a decline of 7.10%, with a net loss of 11.317 billion yuan, while AI revenue reached 10 billion yuan, growing over 50% [3]. - Kuaishou's Q3 2025 net profit was 4.489 billion yuan, up 37.28%, with R&D expenses increasing by 69.89% [4]. - NetEase reported a Q3 net profit of 1.235 billion yuan, down 81.11%, while R&D expenses were 3.650 billion yuan, up 69.89% [5]. Market Performance Review - The overall market performance from November 17 to November 23 showed declines across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% and the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index down 5.24% [15]. Core Recommendations and Rationale - The report emphasizes the strong performance of Tencent Holdings, which achieved a revenue of 63.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, exceeding expectations and showing a year-on-year growth of 23% [20]. - Kuaishou's user engagement metrics improved significantly, with a daily active user (DAU) usage time reaching 126.8 minutes, indicating effective user retention strategies [22]. - Bilibili's advertising revenue for Q3 was 2.57 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year, reflecting improved advertising product supply and effectiveness [24].

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 11 月 24 日 明年再通胀的需求动力来自于哪儿？ 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 44 期） 频率：每周 中小学生放春秋假就是创造消费场景，拉动居民消费的新尝试。 风险提示：地缘政治风险、国内政策落地不及预期、全球衰退及主要经济体货 币政策超预期。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《静待花开——宏观与大类 资产周报》2025-11-23 2、《俄乌和谈再次启动？—— —国际时政周评》2025-11-23 3、《中小学生春秋假的政策意 义 — 显 微 镜 下 的 中 国 经 济 （2025 年第 43 期）》2025-11- 18 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 再通胀是明年国内经济和资本市场的核心逻辑。如果明年确能结束 2023 年 2 季度以来的价格弱势，那么当前股强债弱的格局将继续演绎。市场对于再 通胀的主要质疑在于，如果没有需求配合，仅靠反内卷在供给侧做文章，价 格回升并不能持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the organic silicon industry, highlighting its potential benefits from the chemical sector's internal competition [4]. Core Viewpoints - The chemical sector experienced a decline of 7.47% in the third week of November, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.58 percentage points [13]. - The only sub-industry that saw an increase was petroleum processing, which rose by 2.64%, while 31 sub-industries declined, with the largest drop in acrylic fiber at -15.33% [17]. - Key products with significant price increases included dimethyl carbonate (+12.32%) and thionyl chloride (+11.39%), while liquid chlorine saw the largest decrease at -6.25% [22][3]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies that benefit from the chemical sector's internal competition, such as Xin'an Chemical, Xingfa Group, and Baofeng Energy [4]. Industry Performance - The chemical sector's dynamic PE ratio stands at 23.78, significantly higher than the average PE of 5.33 since 2015 [13]. - The total number of stocks in the industry is 446, with a total market value of 7114.2 billion and a circulating market value of 6648.5 billion [5]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest price increases and decreases, indicating significant volatility in the market [22][3]. - The price spread for propylene (methanol-based) increased by 296.55%, while the PTA spread decreased by 157.04% [42][46]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes include a decrease in stocks of chlorpyrifos (-12.5%) and propylene oxide (-11.83%), while polyester filament saw an increase of 10.21% [66].

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 11 月 24 日 工信部政策加持，机器人赛道迎来"量产加速器" 人形机器人周报 20251124 中游制造/机械 行情回顾： ❑ 11 月 17-21 日机器人板块整体略输大盘，仍处于调整阶段。过去一周沪深 300 指数下跌 3.77%，人形机器人行业核心公司综合指数亦下降 5.19%。核心标 的中，涨跌幅前五位为伟创电气（18.56%），同益股份（16.51%），龙溪股 份（16.34%），恒工精密（11.07%），安培龙（10.69%）；涨跌幅后五位 为富临精工（-20.29%），兆新股份（-18.05%），江苏博云（-16.12%）， 中欣氟材（-15.52%），祥源新材（-13.84%）。当前板块受特斯拉量产进度 推迟及整体流动性变弱等因素影响，整体呈现波动回调趋势。 重要事件： 周度简评： 相关标的： （1）关注国产链关键龙头 本体：优必选、越疆、中坚科技、拓斯达 大脑：天准科技 关节&丝杠：美湖股份（宇树、富士康等）、震裕科技、夏厦精密、丰立智能、 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（ ...

2、市场动向：ESG 指数短期回调，碳价维持高位水平 本周主要 ESG 指数整体震荡下行：国内 300ESG 指数下跌 3.49%，SEEE 碳 中和指数跌幅达 6.93%；海外标普 500ESG 指数下跌 1.55%，标普 Kensho 清洁电 力指数周跌 8.45%。碳价方面，国内 CEA 价格报 65 元/吨，成交活跃度有所回落； 欧盟碳价报 81 欧元/吨，与 CEA 价差回落至 594 元/吨。能源指数方面，万得火电 指数与中证绿色电力指数分别下跌 5.26%和 3.98%。板块层面，绿色转型相关各板 块均呈现主力资金净流出，低碳核心板块净流出率最高，低碳支撑板块成交占比 28.23%保持领先。 3、舆情热点：ESG 舆情总量温和回调，治理与绿色创新仍为主线 本周全市场 ESG 事件共录得 2433 件，环比小幅下降 1.5%。正向事件占比升 至 53.4%，负向占比降至 38.8%，整体情绪较前周略有改善。议题方面，治理类事 件仍占主导，其中"战略合作"最为突出；环境类议题中"绿色产品"继续保持最 高热度。代表性事件包括：中石化与阿尔及利亚国油签署 4.5 亿美元炼油装置建设 合同，推动海外能源结 ...