Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company's Q4 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of approximately 54.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.45%, and a net profit of approximately 11.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.52% [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerating demand for high-performance computing servers and artificial intelligence, which will drive structural demand for printed circuit boards [6]. - The company is accelerating its capacity expansion and global strategy, which is anticipated to sustain high growth in performance [6]. - Significant investments in cutting-edge technologies such as CoWoP and mSAP are expected to enhance the company's high-end product capacity and optimize product structure, thereby improving overall profitability and risk resistance [6]. - The report forecasts revenue for 2025-2027 to be 189.5 billion, 265.2 billion, and 371.3 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 38.2 billion, 58.5 billion, and 85.2 billion yuan, respectively [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 89.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7%, and is expected to reach 133.42 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 49% [12]. - The company's net profit for 2023 is estimated at 15.13 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11%, and is projected to grow to 25.87 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 71% [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.79 yuan in 2023 to 1.34 yuan in 2024, and further to 1.99 yuan in 2025 [13]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 88.5 in 2023 to 35.0 in 2025, indicating an improving valuation [13].

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2026 年 2 月 3 日 成长占优，大小盘表现差异收敛 ——A 股流动性与风格跟踪月报（202602） 展望 2 月，市场在未来一段时间将会以震荡为主，节后指数有望强于节前。日 历效应显示 2 月小盘、成长风格的胜率相对更高，考虑到市场仍处春季行情阶 段，风格层面继续推荐成长风格，大小盘表现差异有望收敛，先大盘后小盘。推 荐指数主要包括中证 1000、创业板 50、300 质量、800 信息等。 ❑流动性与资金供需：2 月增量资金或继续净流入，节前外资有望继续净流入， 节后融资有望回流。宏观流动性方面，政府债券在 1 月集中发行缴款，对流动 性形成一定抽水效应。央行采取了精准有力的对冲措施，通过中期流动性工具 弥补资金缺口，2 月资金面有望继续保持平稳充裕。外部流动性方面，从特朗 普新提名的美联储主席沃什的政策主张来看，沃什更可能采取温和且渐进的降 息策略，其更倾向于将降息与缩减资产负债表（缩表）配合，以对冲宽松效应， 避免通胀反弹。目前市场对 2026 年的降息预期从原先的 1 次上调至 2 次。股 票市场资金供需方面，1 月股票市场可跟踪资金转为净流出，融资成为主力增 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 03 日 当地时间 2026 年 1 月 28 日，美联储召开议息会议，宣布暂停降息。本次会议 中鲍威尔略显鹰派，强调通胀上行风险和就业下行风险都在减弱，下次降息的 门槛有所提高。但鲍威尔同时提到关税带来的通胀影响大概率年中见顶，该变 化本身有利于后续宽松。换言之，Q2 后关税基数切换有利于新主席上任后的宽 松操作，这仍是美联储政策独立的体现。在面对本人是否留任、美联储换帅、 法院调查等敏感问题时，鲍威尔均表示无可奉告，这也展现了其希望美联储能 平稳过渡的态度。此外，近期美日汇率波动引发关注，尽管贝森特表示美国始 终奉行强势美元政策且不会干预美元兑日元汇率，但特朗普本人还是支持弱美 元，市场表现亦给出了答案。 沃什被任命下一届美联储主席对美股影响或短（至 Q3）多中（Q4 及明年）空： 我们于去年底提出全球财政思路大转变"节流转向开源"，2027-2028 年或为 本轮康波萧条期的尾声，随后全球私人部门重新加杠杆，也即，"脱虚向实"。 沃什刚好是这个时代的选择。QE 是私人部门去杠杆、政府加杠杆的产物，进而 "脱虚向实"阶段的货币政策将回归价格主导、QE ...

Group 1: Current Trends in Financial Assets - "Deposit migration" is a hot topic as residents shift funds from traditional savings to diversified financial assets due to declining deposit rates and increasing wealth management awareness[1] - In comparison to the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, and South Korea, cash and deposits account for over 30% of residents' financial assets in most countries, with Japan and South Korea around 50%[3] - By 2030, it is projected that Chinese residents' holdings of cash and deposits, stocks and equity, funds, insurance, and bonds will grow by 42%, 43%, 22%, 61%, and 16% respectively compared to 2025 estimates[3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Asset Allocation - The proportion of equity assets is generally positively correlated with per capita GDP, with China's current equity asset share at 31%[3] - Aging populations increase the share of low-risk assets, as older individuals tend to prefer safer investments[3] - Low interest rates encourage residents to seek higher returns, leading to increased risk asset allocation, though the exact path remains uncertain[3] Group 3: International Comparisons and Predictions - China's financial asset structure is expected to align more closely with the Japanese and German models rather than the Anglo-American model, emphasizing lower risk preferences[3] - China's overseas financial asset holdings have significant growth potential, with current levels being over five times lower than those in developed countries[3] - The financial deepening process in China may slow down, with financial asset growth converging towards GDP growth rates due to various economic factors[3]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 02 月 03 日 比亚迪（002594.SZ） 2026M1 国内外销量显著分化，关注新品周期 中游制造/汽车 2026 年 1 月，由于春节前终端去库存、购置税补贴退坡后的需求透支等行业因 素，国内新能源汽车市场呈现"同比分化、环比普降"的格局。公司作为全球新 能源龙头，当月销量呈现明显的结构性特征，整体受国内市场拖累出现同比下 滑，但海外市场延续高增。 ❑ 风险提示：1、新品需求不及预期；2、海外布局不及预期。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 602315 | 777102 | 854813 | 923198 | 969358 | | 同比增长 | 42% | 29% | 10% | 8% | 5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 38103 | 50486 | 43564 | 45799 | 48764 | | 同比增长 | 77% | 32% | -14% | 5% | 6 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2026 年 02 月 03 日 布局消费反转！ 大消费组二月消费金股 研究部/消费品 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 4.3 4.6 25.0 相对表现 3.1 -8.7 1.7 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -10 0 10 20 30 Feb/25 May/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 (%) 消费品 沪深300 相关报告 1、《招商证券 1 月港股消费观察： 外卖反垄断如何影响港股消费股前 景？》2026-01-27 2、《大消费组一月消费金股—双节 消费亮点前瞻》2026-01-06 ❑ 轻纺 杨蕊菁：看好家居板块修复以及倍加洁益生菌业务发展 风险提示：消费下行风险，消费复苏疲软风险、宏观经济变动风险等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 1216 | 23.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 17628.3 | 15.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 16321.4 | 15.9 | 行业指数 3、《招商证券 12 月港股消费观察— 1-2 月流动性改善后港股消费买什 么？》2025 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2026 年 2 月 2 日 A 股细化三大环境信披指南，国际气候行动持续分化 ——ESG 市场观察周报（20260201） 1、要闻速览：国内 ESG 信披细则落地，国际气候行动呈现分化 国内动态方面，沪深北交易所新增《第三号 污染物排放》《第四号 能源利用》 《第五号 水资源利用》三项可持续发展报告实操指南；香港金管局发布可持续金融 分类法 2A 阶段版本，新增气候转型与适应类别；国家能源局新批准成立 7 个能源 标准化技术委员会，完善绿色低碳标准体系。 国际动态方面，国际公共部门会计准则理事会（IPSASB）发布全球首项公共 部门气候相关披露标准；美国正式退出《巴黎协定》的生效程序完成；英国竞争与 市场管理局发布新指南，明确零售商需对供应链"漂绿"行为承担责任；欧洲九国 签署《汉堡宣言》联合开发北海 100 吉瓦海上风电及相关基础设施。 2、市场动向： ESG 指数表现分化，碳价与电力板块回调 本周国内代表性 ESG 主题指数分化，国内 300ESG、上证社会责任及 180 治 理指数分别上涨 0.49%、0.70%和 1.93%，而 SEEE 碳中和指数下跌 1.85%。 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2026 年 02 月 02 日 相关报告 1、《沃什当选与 PPI 提前转 正，谁将成为下阶段市场主要 矛盾———宏观与大类资产周 报》2026-02-01 2、《为什么伊朗局势一波三 折？———国际时政周评》 2026-02-01 3、《金属价格为何如此繁荣— 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年 第 3 期）》2026-01-26 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 2025 年周平均工作时间有所下降 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年第 4 期） 频率：每周 降低就业人员工作时长，有助于增加消费场景，对提升居民消费率有帮助作 用。 定期报告 根据国家统计局的数据，企业就业人员每周平均工作时间为 48.43 小时，低 于 2023 和 2024 年时长，但仍明显高于疫情前的水平。去年，除 1 月外，2- 12 月每周平均工作时间均低于 2023-2024 年同期水平。 工作时长的缩短自然会增加居民的闲暇时间。根据我们的测算扣 ...

Investment Strategy Overview - The report anticipates a volatile market in February due to previous regulatory signals and significant ETF outflows, with market activity expected to decline before the Spring Festival and improve post-holiday as policy catalysts emerge [3][4] - The focus remains on cyclical price increases, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and AI, which are expected to maintain a positive trend [3][4] - The liquidity situation is mixed, with increased inflows from retail investors countered by significant ETF sell-offs, leading to a challenging funding environment before the Spring Festival [3][4] Key Stock Recommendations - **Jianghuai Automobile (江淮汽车)**: Positioned as the only domestic ultra-luxury brand, with the S800 model outperforming competitors like Mercedes-Benz. The company plans to launch 6-7 high-end models, indicating substantial growth potential [5][8] - **Luxshare Precision (立讯精密)**: A key player in the Apple supply chain, with strong growth prospects in consumer electronics and automotive sectors. The company is expected to achieve rapid earnings growth over the next few years [5][11] - **Sinyi Technology (生益科技)**: As a leading manufacturer of CCL, the company is well-positioned for long-term growth with a focus on high-end product upgrades and strong market demand [5][15] - **Tianqi Lithium (天赐材料)**: The largest manufacturer of electrolytes with a market share of approximately 40%. The company is expected to see significant profit recovery due to improved supply-demand dynamics in the lithium industry [5][20] - **Li Ning (李宁)**: The company is accelerating its product and channel expansion, with new product launches expected to drive a turnaround in performance [5][20] - **Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创)**: A leader in optical modules, benefiting from strong overseas demand. The company is expanding its production capacity to meet increasing market needs [5][27] - **Xinyi Technology (新易盛)**: The company is experiencing continuous growth in high-speed products, with a strong outlook for 2026 [5][27] - **Foshan Plastics (佛塑科技)**: The acquisition of a key supplier is expected to enhance performance significantly, with a focus on the tightening supply-demand situation in the industry [5][27] - **Century Huatong (世纪华通)**: The company is leveraging its partnership with Tencent to enhance its game development and distribution capabilities, indicating strong future growth potential [5][27] - **Tencent Holdings (腾讯控股)**: The company has a solid foundation with a rich game product pipeline and is accelerating its AI application ecosystem [6][27] Market Trends and Expectations - The report highlights a trend of price increases spreading from cyclical sectors like oil and food to technology sectors, particularly AI and semiconductors, which are expected to continue benefiting from policy support [3][4] - The upcoming Two Sessions in March are anticipated to catalyze policy developments that could positively impact market performance [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of sector rotation as a key characteristic of the market in February, with a focus on cyclical price increases and technology sectors [3][4]

事件：公司发布 2025 年业绩预增公告，经公司初步测算，预计 2025 年归母净 利润 19.5 亿~21.5 亿元，同比 62.24%至 78.88%，扣非净利润 15 亿~17 亿元， 同比增长 60.55%~81.96%。预计公司 2025 年度归属于上市公司股东扣除对联 营企业和合营企业的投资收益部分的净利润 9.1 亿~11.1 亿元，同比增长 85.34%~126.08%。 ❑ 风险提示：下游市场需求不足、产品价格下跌、新项目投产不及预期。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 82640 | 101307 | 100805 | 107909 | 120259 | | 同比增长 | 33% | 23% | -0% | 7% | 11% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 579 | 899 | 2256 | 3203 | 3957 | | 同比增长 | -260% | 55% | 151% | 42% | 24% | | 归 ...