资产价格与居民消费和消费类公司股价表现关系的思考 zhuweihua@cmschina.com.cn 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 梁广楷 S1090524010001 liangguangkai@cmschina.com.cn 刘丽 S1090517080006 liuli14@cmschina.com.cn 史晋星 S1090522010003 shijinxing@cmschina.com.cn 丁浙川 S1090519070002 dingzhechuan@cmschina.com.cn 2025 年 4 月 8 日 专题报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 行业专题报告 朱卫华 S1090511030001 ❑ 近日中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，首次 在促消费文件中强调稳股市、稳楼市。为什么稳股市、稳楼市对消费如此重 要，通过哪些途径来发挥作用，对消费的各细分领域分别产生怎样的影响， 未来如果中国房地产价格结束下 ...

Economic Impact of Exports - In 2016, 2018, and 2023, exports negatively impacted economic growth, with contributions to GDP growth of -0.75%, -0.59%, and -0.62% respectively[3] - The 2008 financial crisis caused the most significant drop in external demand, but the countermeasures taken then are not applicable today[3] Consumption and Investment Contributions - In 2016, consumption contributed 4.58% to GDP growth, while investment contributed 2.97%, with retail sales and fixed asset investment growth rates at 10.2% and 7.3% respectively[3] - In 2023, consumption's contribution to GDP growth was 4.62%, while investment contributed only 1.39%, indicating a gap in investment's contribution compared to 2016[3] Government Consumption - Government consumption expenditure growth averaged 6.6% from 2020 to 2023, significantly lower than the 10-year average of 8.9%[4] - In 2023, government consumption expenditure growth reached 8.2%, contributing to offsetting external demand shortfalls[4] Future Economic Projections - To achieve a 5% growth target in 2023, government consumption must contribute approximately 4.4% to GDP growth, necessitating an increase in investment contribution by about 1.35%[5] - Local governments are expected to receive over 4 trillion yuan in debt resources, which could boost infrastructure investment to at least 5.9% growth, a 1.5% increase from the previous year[5] Policy Recommendations - The current policy direction mirrors successful measures from 2016, focusing on stimulating consumer demand and government spending to counteract export declines[3][5] - Continuous monitoring of external demand and timely adjustments in policy are crucial, especially given the complex geopolitical landscape[6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [4]. Core Insights - The recent implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" policy by the U.S. government, which includes a 10% minimum baseline tariff, has led to significant volatility in global financial markets, impacting gold prices [1]. - Following the U.S. tariff announcement, gold prices initially surged to a historical high before experiencing a sharp decline, attributed to a sell-off triggered by falling global stock markets [1]. - The report highlights that the long-term outlook for gold prices remains bullish due to increasing trade tensions and rising input costs, which are expected to drive inflation in the U.S. [2]. - Yale University's budget laboratory predicts that if retaliatory measures are not taken by other countries, U.S. PCE could rise by 1.7%, with a potential decline in real GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points by 2025 [2]. - The report suggests that gold-related stocks, such as Lingbao Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, China National Gold International, Shandong Gold, and Shandong Gold International, still hold strong investment value [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Scale - The industry comprises 233 companies, with a total market capitalization of 405.21 billion and a circulating market value of 377.45 billion [4]. Industry Index Performance - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 2.9%, 21.5%, and 13.4% respectively, while the relative performance is 3.6%, 25.4%, and 5.2% [6].

2025 年 03 月 31 日 猪价季节性回落，母猪产能环比微增 生猪养殖行业 202502 月报点评 消费品/农林牧渔 2 月产业端供给压力缓于预期以及标肥价差引导产业供给后置，猪价季节性走 弱、但整体强于市场预期。行业仍处产能释放期，而上半年猪肉消费疲软，预 计猪价整体承压，母猪产能或维持弱去化趋势。考虑到 25 年生猪供给增幅有限， 行业成本方差较大，优质猪企或仍可实现可观利润，持续修复资产负债表。重 点推荐牧原股份、温氏股份等，建议关注神农集团、东瑞股份等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 89 | 1.7 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 1020.2 | 1.2 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 869.7 | 1.1 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 5.9 20.0 5.0 相对表现 5.2 14.3 -6.2 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Apr/24 Jul/24 Nov/24 Mar/25 (%) 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关报告 ❑ 风险提示：农产品价格 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 04 月 07 日 拼多多宣布千亿扶持商家,美团试点为骑手补贴养老保险 商贸社服行业周报 消费品/商业 本周餐饮旅游板块指数下跌 0.22%，表现强于沪深 300 指数(下跌 1.37%)和创 业板指数(下跌 2.95%)；商贸零售板块指数本周上涨 0.24%，表现强于沪深 300 指数和创业板指数。 本周子板块相关观点：1）电商：行业竞争格局好于预期，龙头电商公司估值低 位，推荐阿里巴巴、京东集团、拼多多、唯品会。2）OTA：携程出境游&海外 业务延续高增长，关注出境游修复进程及海外市场拓展情况，推荐携程集团。3） 本地生活：外卖及到店空间与壁垒仍具，盈利弹性凸显，重点推荐美团。4）共 享出行：龙头份额企稳、盈利增长潜力大，推荐滴滴出行。 风险提示：宏观经济风险；行业竞争加剧；旅游行业系统性风险。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | 占比% | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 133 | 2.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 1121.2 | 1.3 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 1028.2 | 1.3 | 行业指数 | % ...

关税升级事件医药行业点评 关税升级背景下，关注医药板块内需、国产创新、进口 替代等属性及相关个股 消费品/生物医药 风险提示：后续政策变动风险、对等关税加剧风险、研发风险、产品销售风险 等。 证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 04 月 07 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 关税升级事件背景下，医药行业整体以内需为主，大部分子行业受到 关税影响较小（如医疗服务/消费医疗、国产创新药、中药、药店/流通 等），板块具备较好避险属性。此外进口占比较高的血制品、部分设 备耗材及关键元件、IVD 等具备较好进口替代空间与机会，有望边际 受益。 近期建议关注： 1.血制品。人血白蛋白海外占比 60+%，进口白蛋白加关税后国产白 蛋白价格有望回暖、十五五新浆站规划亦值得期待。建议关注派林生 物、天坛生物、博雅生物等； 2.内需消费相关：外部影响小、消费政策催化，部分领域已现回暖。 建议关注医疗服务（眼科-爱尔/爱博/普瑞/华厦等、通策、固生堂、锦 欣生殖等）、爱美客、药店（益丰药房、大参林、老百姓）、中药（东 阿阿胶、华润三九、方盛制药、羚锐制药）等。 3.医疗器械：1）设备核心部件：国内医用 CT 球管国产化率低， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company's Q4 performance shows stabilization in revenue and profit, with significant improvement in operational quality. The growth is driven by opportunities in trusted innovation (信创), AI, and data elements, particularly in cloud and data services [1][6]. - The company is positioned as a foundational player in digital China, with advantages in trusted innovation, data elements, and cloud services, projecting a net profit of 316 million, 428 million, and 495 million yuan for 2025 to 2027 respectively [6][10]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 9,195 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 13%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 7,836 million yuan, with a further decline of 15%, followed by a recovery with expected growth of 10% in 2025 [2][10]. - Operating profit for 2023 is 419 million yuan, with a decrease of 4% year-on-year. The forecast for 2024 shows a significant drop to 233 million yuan, but a recovery is expected with 384 million yuan in 2025, representing a 65% increase [2][10]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is 375 million yuan for 2023, down 1% year-on-year, with a forecast of 316 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a 66% increase [2][10]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 41.7, projected to rise to 81.9 in 2024 before decreasing to 49.5 in 2025 [2][11]. Business Performance - In Q4, the company achieved a revenue of 34.99 billion yuan, down 11.95% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.19 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.82% [6][10]. - The company’s gross margin improved by 0.60 percentage points to 24.08% for the year, with Q4 gross margin increasing by 2.16 percentage points to 18.05% [6][10]. - The cloud and data services, along with trusted innovation business, are key growth drivers, with cloud and data services revenue growing by 12.34% in 2024 [6][10]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is China Electric Tai Chi Group Co., Ltd., holding 28.61% of the shares [3].

1 、《环保公用事业行业周报 （20250330）：碳排放权交易市场首 次扩围，新增三大高碳排行业》 2025-03-30 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 04 月 06 日 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 04 月 06 日 深化公用事业价格市场化改革，更好发挥价格信号作用 环保公用事业行业周报（2025/04/06） 周期/环保及公用事业 本周环保与公用事业板块表现出现分化。环保（申万）行业指数下跌 0.25%， 相较市场整体跌幅较小；公用事业（申万）行业指数上涨 2.55%，涨幅领先。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 241 | 4.7 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3676.4 | 4.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3409.4 | 4.5 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 5.2 16.9 10.6 相对表现 5.9 20.8 2.4 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Apr/24 Jul/24 Nov/24 Mar/25 (%) 环保及公 ...

成交价格方面，本周天津城投债成交收益率较高，超过 3%。从变动来看，与上 周相比，本周浙江、山东超长城投债成交收益率较上周上升较大，较上周分别 上升 52bp 和 51bp，本周安徽、河南超长城投债成交收益率较上周下降幅度较 大，较上周分别下降 26bp 和 16bp。另外，江苏低估值成交占比较上周下降 59 个百分点，河南、北京等地低估值成交占比较上周上升较多。 三、超长产业债：建筑装饰、机械设备行业成交量上升，电子、基础化工行业 低估值成交占比下降 蓄势待修复 ——超长信用债交易跟踪 一、超长信用债成交量下降，低估值成交占比上升 本周（2025 年 3 月 31 日-2025 年 4 月 3 日，下同）超长信用债每日成交活跃 度有所下降，超长信用债平均每日成交笔数为 2.7 笔，前值为 2.8 笔。本周剩 余期限在 15-20 年的超长信用债每日成交笔数较上周下降较多。从品种来看， 本周城投债每日成交活跃度高于产业债。本周超长信用债成交量有所下降。本 周超长信用债成交量为 280 亿元，较上周环比下降 42.15%，成交量下降主要体 现在剩余期限在 7-10 年的超长信用债中。 1）在成交期限方面，机构久 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 4 月 6 日 东升西落之内需消费的崛起：对等关税后 A 股怎么看？ ——A 股投资策略周报（0406） 相关报告 关税提升对于 A 股并不是新鲜事，也不是今年的第一次。阶段性降低全球风险资 产的风险偏好并引发流动性冲击对 A 股产生不利影响。对中国来说，对美出口下 降以及全球需求下滑将会拖累中国出口增速。因此全面支持内需消费成为完成今 年经济发展目标以及应对外部冲击的关键措施。疫情、地产和地方政府化债多重 风险逐一消退后，今年开始财政政策的发力将会成为推动消费增速回升的关键力 量。而 14 亿人口人均消费支出提升空间巨大。即将到来的年报及一季报消费板块 自由现金流拐点和业绩边际改善将会出现。在不确定性加大和低利率环境下，中 国内需消费因前期滞涨估值便宜预期低且内在价值稳定提升，可成为当前全球资 金的避险选择。精神属性、适老化、政策支持和小额可选消费是当前消费股重要 的选股原则。除了 A 股消费，恒生消费指数也值得重点关注。A 股除了消费，农 产品、军工和自主可控也是可以重点关注的选择方向。最终 A 股尤其是 A 股内需 消费应该是全球投资在本轮美国关税冲击中最具韧性 ...