Group 1 - The market is expected to experience an upward breakout in December, initiating a year-end rally, driven by positive economic policy signals from the upcoming political bureau and central economic work meetings [2][4][14] - The dual focus on the Shanghai 50 and Sci-Tech 50 indices is recommended as a favorable combination for capitalizing on the anticipated market rally [2][14][19] - Key investment opportunities include non-bank financials, resource price increases, service consumption, and technology sectors that emphasize self-sufficiency [2][14][19] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming political bureau and central economic work meetings in shaping economic policy, which is expected to be more proactive, enhancing confidence in economic recovery and corporate profitability [4][15][32] - The liquidity environment is projected to remain stable, with an influx of new capital expected in December, particularly from insurance funds and increased household savings, which may lead to a classic year-end rally [4][18][25] - The focus on cyclical sectors such as coal, basic chemicals, and steel, as well as high-end manufacturing like defense and power equipment, is emphasized due to their potential for performance improvement [5][21][22] Group 3 - The report suggests that the market's style will likely shift towards large-cap stocks, with a recommendation for indices such as CSI 300 and Sci-Tech 50, reflecting a preference for stability and potential growth [20][21] - The analysis indicates that sectors with low inventory levels, optimized production capacity, and improving economic conditions should be prioritized for investment [21][22][23] - The anticipated recovery in consumer spending, particularly in service sectors, is highlighted as a critical driver for economic growth, supported by fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption [17][32][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) with a target price of HKD 141.90, while the current stock price is HKD 102.5 [3]. Core Insights - Meituan's Q3 2025 financial performance showed revenue of HKD 95.49 billion, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, but operating profit was negative at HKD -19.76 billion, a decline of 244.4%. Adjusted net profit was also negative at HKD -16.01 billion, down 224.8% [1][6]. - Despite the intense competition in the food delivery sector, Meituan's long-term business barriers and growth potential remain strong, with overseas operations providing new growth opportunities [1][6]. - The report highlights that the core local business segment generated revenue of HKD 67.45 billion, down 2.8%, while new business revenue was HKD 28.04 billion, up 15.9% [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected main revenue for Meituan is expected to grow from HKD 276.85 billion in 2023 to HKD 482.81 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% [2][8]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be negative at HKD -15.46 billion in 2025, but is expected to recover to HKD 45.63 billion by 2027 [2][8]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in the operating profit margin (OPM) for new businesses, which is expected to be -4.6% in Q3 2025, showing a reduction in losses [6]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Meituan maintains a leading market share in high-value orders despite the competitive pressures in the food delivery market, with expectations for a more rational competitive environment in Q4 [6]. - The report notes that the company is focusing on high-value users and orders, which positions it favorably against competitors [6]. - The performance of the flash purchase segment is projected to grow by approximately 30% in Q3 2025, although it still faces negative operating profit margins [6]. Shareholder Information - The total market capitalization of Meituan is HKD 626.4 billion, with major shareholders holding a 9.05% stake [3].

Group 1: Pork Price Outlook - Pork prices are expected to improve quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026, with a significant year-on-year increase anticipated in Q3 2026[1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the breeding sow inventory stands at 40.35 million, with a target of reducing to 39 million, indicating a necessary monthly reduction of 280,000 sows[1] - The year-on-year decline in breeding sow inventory is projected to reach -1.62%, -2.50%, and -3.20% for October, November, and December 2025 respectively[1] Group 2: Oil Price Outlook - OPEC+ has a total remaining production capacity of 3.4 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia holding 2.13 million barrels per day, indicating limited short-term production increase capabilities[2] - The WTI oil price is expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel, with geopolitical risks potentially pushing this higher[2] - U.S. shale oil production is anticipated to face reduction pressures, with capital expenditures and rig counts declining, leading to a production bottleneck by the end of 2025[2] Group 3: CPI and PPI Projections - Under neutral conditions, CPI is projected to be around 0.5% for 2026, with pork prices averaging 19, 20, 21, and 22 CNY/kg across the quarters[3] - In a positive scenario, CPI could rise to approximately 0.7% due to stronger domestic demand and consumption policies[4] - PPI is expected to turn positive around Q3 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 0.2% in Q3 and maintaining around 0.5% in Q4[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the media and internet industry, particularly highlighting leading companies such as Shenzhou Taiyue, Southern Media, and Tencent Holdings [1][2]. Core Insights - The media sector has experienced a decline of 1.39% in the past week, ranking third among all industries, while it has risen by 26.42% year-to-date, placing sixth overall. Despite recent market adjustments, the AI application segment within the media sector has shown strong performance, indicating significant future investment opportunities [1][9]. - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications across various fields, including gaming, music, healthcare, and finance, suggesting that 2026 will present substantial investment opportunities in this area [1][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The media industry index decreased by 1.39% from November 17 to November 23, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.90% during the same period [9]. - Individual stock performance showed significant gains for companies like Xuan Ya International (33.64%) and Fu Shi Holdings (32.12%), while others like Caesar Culture and Guangdian Network faced declines [12][14]. Film and Television Industry Data - The top films by box office for the week included "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle" with a weekly box office of 190.63 million and "Nowhere to Run" with 117.09 million [16][17]. - Upcoming films such as "Zootopia 2" are expected to generate significant interest, with over 2.28 million people marking it as a film they want to see [18]. Television Series Ratings - The top-rated television series included "Why He Is Still Single" on Shanghai Oriental TV with a rating of 1.571% and "Tang Dynasty Mystery" on Beijing TV with a rating of 1.367% [21][22]. - Online series such as "Tang Dynasty Mystery" and "He Is Still Single" ranked highest in viewership indices [25][26]. Game Sector Insights - Tencent dominated the iOS game sales chart with six titles, including "Teamfight Tactics" at the top [32][34]. - The Android game rankings also featured Tencent's "Delta Force" among the top titles [34]. Book Sector Highlights - The top-selling fiction books included "Red Rock" and "The Right Side of the River," while non-fiction bestsellers featured titles like "The Lazy Economy" [35][36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" due to positive fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [2][10]. Core Insights - The upcoming release of major overseas IP films is expected to create a strong box office boost, with titles like "Zootopia 2" and "Avatar 3" anticipated to exceed box office expectations [1][6]. - The film industry is experiencing a revival, with Q4 box office projected to surpass the same period last year, driven by the release of high-profile films and advancements in AI-generated video technology [1][6][7]. - AI advancements, particularly OpenAI's Sora2 model, are revolutionizing content production, enabling more efficient and cost-effective filmmaking processes, which is expected to reshape the industry landscape [6][7]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 160 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 2021.1 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 1856.4 billion [2]. - The absolute performance of the industry over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 4.6%, 21.3%, and 24.7% respectively, indicating a strong upward trend [4]. Upcoming Releases - Major films scheduled for release include "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle" on November 14, 2025, "Nowhere to Hide" and "The Meaning of Being Nameless" on December 31, 2025, and "Avatar: Fire and Ash" on December 19, 2025 [8]. - "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle" has already achieved a global box office of 7.02 billion USD, while "Zootopia 2" has a pre-sale box office exceeding 1.8 billion [6][8]. Company Recommendations - Companies to watch include China Film, Shanghai Film, and major cinema chains like Wanda Film, Hengdian Film, and Huanxi Media, which are expected to benefit from the upcoming film releases and the overall box office recovery [1][6][7]. - The ticketing platform Maoyan Entertainment is also highlighted for its market share advantage, which is likely to result in significant revenue growth as the box office rebounds [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its long-term operational potential [1][3]. Core Insights - The company has deepened its focus on the power supply industry for nearly 30 years, specializing in high-efficiency and high-reliability power supply markets. It has established a solid foundation in the telecommunications sector and is now increasing investments in data center power supply as a strategic business [1][7]. - The company is expected to achieve new growth in the AIDC power supply market, with potential strong profitability if it successfully penetrates overseas markets with its new products [1][7]. - The company has a robust research and development (R&D) capability, with R&D expense ratios significantly increasing in recent years due to investments in new fields, which is expected to improve operational performance in the future [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to decline from 1,467 million yuan in 2023 to 922 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 1,729 million yuan in 2026 and 2,327 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 37% in 2025 and 35% in 2027 [2][24]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -501 million yuan in 2024, improving to 132 million yuan in 2026 and 353 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of -25.9 in 2024 and 36.8 in 2027 [2][24]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 13 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 10.8 billion yuan [3]. Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leading supplier of high-reliability and high-power density power products, with applications in critical sectors such as telecommunications, aerospace, military, and railways [7][11]. - The company has a diversified product range, including modular power supplies, customized power supplies, and high-power power supply systems, catering to various industries [17][19]. Growth Opportunities - The rapid development of AI is expected to create significant demand for power supply solutions, presenting opportunities for the company to enter overseas supply chains [7][29]. - The company has a strong customer base and has established long-term partnerships with major domestic and international clients, enhancing its market position [35][36]. - The company is strategically investing in AIDC power supply business, which is anticipated to yield breakthroughs in the near future [37][38]. Recent Developments - The company has implemented a new round of employee stock ownership plans and incentive programs aimed at enhancing team motivation and performance [41][42]. - The company has seen initial success in converting R&D efforts into revenue, with a significant increase in revenue in the third quarter of 2025, marking a turning point in its financial performance [23][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for several companies, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [2][53]. Core Insights - The swine industry is experiencing a significant decline in pig prices due to an oversupply and seasonal demand weakness, leading to increased losses in the sector [6][10]. - The production capacity of breeding sows is rapidly decreasing, with a notable reduction of 1.1% in October, indicating a shift towards a more balanced supply-demand dynamic in the future [10][14]. - The report highlights a substantial increase in the number of pigs slaughtered, with a 30% year-on-year growth in October, driven by the release of production capacity from leading companies [10][33]. - The report suggests that the cash flow for low-cost pig farming companies is expected to improve significantly, enhancing their intrinsic value [10][53]. Summary by Sections Industry Losses and Production Capacity - The report notes that pig prices have declined significantly, with the national average price at 11.6 yuan/kg in October, down 34% year-on-year and 11% month-on-month [10][14]. - The losses in pig farming have expanded, with self-breeding and purchased piglets showing average losses of 155 yuan and 281 yuan per head, respectively [10][14]. - The production capacity of breeding sows is in a rapid decline, with the number of breeding sows falling below 40 million for the first time since June 2024 [10][14]. Slaughter and Weight Trends - The report indicates a significant increase in the number of pigs slaughtered, with 17.52 million pigs processed in October, reflecting a 30% increase year-on-year [10][33]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has decreased, with the average weight recorded at 121 kg, down 1.9% year-on-year and 1.5% month-on-month [10][49]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting companies with strong cost advantages and performance reliability, recommending Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group as key investment targets [10][53]. - Other companies to watch include Shennong Group, Dekang Animal Husbandry, Dongrui Co., and COFCO Joycome, which are expected to benefit from the industry's recovery [10][53].

Core Insights - The report indicates an overall improvement in industry sentiment, particularly in resource products, midstream manufacturing, and information technology sectors, with most metal prices rising and strong performance in the new energy materials market [1][6][12] - The report suggests a potential cyclical recovery in 2026, driven by a resonance between the US and China, and recommends positioning in cyclical sectors during market adjustments [1][12] Industry Overview Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index, and DXI Index have all increased, indicating positive momentum in the semiconductor sector [28] - Prices for DDR5 and DDR4 DRAM memory have risen week-on-week, reflecting strong demand driven by AI model iterations and storage needs [24][28] - The October NB LCD shipment volume has shown an expanding year-on-year growth rate over three months, suggesting a recovery in demand for laptops and displays [28] Midstream Manufacturing - Prices in the new energy supply chain have generally increased, with significant rises in VC, manganese lithium, and other materials, driven by ongoing demand and supply chain optimization [22][26] - The price index for photovoltaic products has decreased week-on-week, indicating potential challenges in the solar energy sector [22][26] - The production of packaging equipment has turned negative year-on-year, reflecting a contraction in this segment [22][26] Consumer Demand - The average price of vegetables and fruits has increased due to seasonal supply constraints and extreme weather conditions, with notable price rises in corn and other agricultural products [19][21] - The film industry has seen a decline in box office revenue, while ticket prices have increased, indicating a mixed recovery in consumer entertainment spending [19][21] Resource Products - Industrial metal prices have generally risen, with copper, zinc, and nickel showing upward trends, while coal prices have fluctuated due to weak downstream demand [27] - The average transaction volume of construction steel has increased, reflecting a recovery in construction activity [27] - Brent crude oil prices have decreased, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply dynamics [27] Financial and Real Estate - The report notes an increase in land transaction premium rates and a rise in the area of commercial housing transactions, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [27] - The A-share market has experienced a decline in turnover rate and daily transaction volume, suggesting cautious investor sentiment [27] Public Utilities - Natural gas prices in China have decreased, while electricity generation has seen a widening year-on-year decline, indicating challenges in the energy sector [27]

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 11 月 26 日 近期人民币为何全面走强？对 A 股有何影响？ ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（1126） 上周二级市场可跟踪资金净流入规模扩大，融资净流出但 ETF 逆势净流入，外 部美国经济数据及美联储官员密集鸽派表态下，美联储 12 月降息预期再度回 升，美元指数回落，我们构建的外资流出压力指标显示外资流出的压力已连续 5 个交易日缓解。往后看，在美联储降息预期和市场继续企稳回升背景下，外资成 交活跃度或有望回升。 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《招商 A 股流动性研究体系与 流动性指数——A 股市流动性研 究之四》，2016 年 8 月 2. 《A 股机构投资者全景图—股 票市场SCP范式研究之一》，2017 年 10 月 3. 《保险资金持续流入股票市场， 美联储降息不确定性增强——金 融市场流动性与监管动态周报 （1118）》 资料来源：Wind，招商证券 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿 元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 139.99↑ | | ETF 净申购 | 49 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [2][7] Core Views - Chow Tai Fook's FY26H1 revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 0.1%. The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, with a payout ratio of 85.7% [6][7] - Strong terminal growth was observed from October 1 to November 18, with same-store sales in mainland China increasing by 38.8%, driven by a 93.9% increase in priced jewelry and a 23.0% increase in gold jewelry [6][7] - The company is expected to benefit from rising gold prices in the second half of the fiscal year, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 [7] Financial Performance Summary - FY26H1 revenue was HKD 389.9 billion, with a breakdown showing mainland China revenue at HKD 321.9 billion (down 2.5%) and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets at HKD 67.9 billion (up 6.5%) [6] - The company closed 611 underperforming stores while opening 8 new flagship stores, focusing on enhancing store quality and optimizing the retail network [6] - The gross margin for FY26H1 was 30.5%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.9 percentage points, while operating profit margin reached a five-year high of 17.5% [6][7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for FY2026 to FY2028 are HKD 94.001 billion, HKD 98.800 billion, and HKD 104.748 billion, respectively, with net profit estimates of HKD 8.707 billion, HKD 9.804 billion, and HKD 10.864 billion [7][8] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a FY26 PE ratio of 17.5X, indicating a favorable valuation [7][8]