Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong recommendation for companies such as 帝科股份 (Dike Co., Ltd.) and 聚和材料 (Juhua Materials) [3][4] - ST 京机 (ST Jingji) and 德邦科技 (Debang Technology) are not rated [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential application of the tile structure in space photovoltaic systems, which can reduce the risk of damage to solar cells and improve power output per unit area [1][7] - The use of tile structures is expected to create new demand scenarios for conductive adhesives and related equipment, benefiting companies involved in these technologies [1][7] Industry Overview - The industry consists of 308 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 792.4 billion and a circulating market value of 693.8 billion [4] - The industry has shown strong performance with absolute returns of 63.1% over 12 months [6] Key Companies - **ST 京机 (ST Jingji)**: A leader in automated manufacturing technology for photovoltaic modules, with a significant market share and established partnerships in tile technology [8] - **帝科股份 (Dike Co., Ltd.)**: A leading company in photovoltaic silver paste, with a strong market position and potential for growth in space photovoltaic applications [9] - **德邦科技 (Debang Technology)**: A core supplier of conductive adhesives for tile photovoltaic cells, with a strong competitive advantage [10] - **聚和材料 (Juhua Materials)**: A leading company in photovoltaic silver paste, developing copper paste products and addressing domestic supply chain issues [11] - **奥特维 (Aotewi)**: A prominent manufacturer of photovoltaic equipment, with deep reserves in tile technology and a comprehensive solution for vacuum process equipment [12]

Group 1: Core Insights - In January, the year-on-year increase in CPI narrowed to 0.2%, while the year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed to -1.4%, indicating a recovery in certain sectors driven by supply-side reforms and improved downstream demand [1][13][25] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with improved supply constraints and price recovery, including non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, chemical fibers, construction materials, and machinery [2][25] Group 2: Information Technology Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index increased, while the DXI Index decreased, indicating mixed performance in the semiconductor sector [2][27] - In December, global semiconductor sales saw a year-on-year increase, and in January, most Taiwanese electronic manufacturers reported improved revenues [2][27] Group 3: Midstream Manufacturing - In January, sales of various excavators and loaders saw a year-on-year increase, while automotive production and sales showed a rolling three-month year-on-year decline [2][26] - The report highlights an increase in cargo throughput and container throughput at Chinese ports, indicating a positive trend in logistics [2][26] Group 4: Consumer Demand - The prices of fresh milk remained stable, while sugar prices declined; pork prices and chicken seed prices also decreased [3][25] - The report notes a decrease in box office revenue averages, while movie ticket prices increased, reflecting a mixed recovery in the entertainment sector [3][25] Group 5: Resource Sector Tracking - The report indicates a decline in the ten-day average transaction volume of construction steel, while industrial metal prices mostly increased, with copper, tin, and nickel prices rising [6][26] - Brent crude oil prices increased, while the chemical product price index showed a downward trend, with most chemical prices declining [6][26] Group 6: Financial and Real Estate Sector - The report notes a decrease in land transaction premium rates and a decline in the area of commercial housing transactions, indicating challenges in the real estate market [6][26] - The A-share turnover rate and daily transaction volume also decreased, reflecting a slowdown in market activity [6][26] Group 7: Public Utilities - The ex-factory price of natural gas in China decreased, along with a decline in UK natural gas futures prices [6][26]

Group 1: PPI Trends and Influences - Domestic PPI has been in a downward trend from 2022 to 2025, primarily due to insufficient domestic demand, with real estate investment contributing over 60% to the decline[6] - The core logic behind the PPI decline is not merely supply imbalance but rather weak domestic demand, particularly in the real estate sector[6] - The PPI is expected to turn positive in Q2 2026, with significant contributions from rising commodity prices, particularly iron ore, crude oil, coal, copper, silicon, and lithium carbonate[51] Group 2: Commodity Price Dynamics - Since the second half of 2025, international and domestic commodity prices have begun a significant upward trend, driven by a depreciating dollar and increased structural demand from sectors like AI and renewable energy[2] - Key industrial metals such as copper and aluminum have seen price increases of 18.51% and 45.78% respectively since early 2025, while lithium carbonate prices surged by 93%[27] - The financial environment for commodities has improved due to a weakening dollar, which historically correlates with rising commodity prices[34] Group 3: Sector Contributions to PPI - The contribution of various sectors to PPI has shifted, with energy, resources, and high-end manufacturing gaining pricing power, while traditional real estate has diminished[1] - Eight key industries, including non-ferrous metallurgy and chemical manufacturing, now account for approximately 70% of the overall PPI pricing influence[14] - In the latter half of 2025, the month-on-month PPI growth was driven significantly by non-ferrous metallurgy, contributing 15.40% to the increase[15]

CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, significantly dropping due to the Spring Festival timing effect[2] - Food prices turned negative year-on-year at -0.7%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points, influenced by last year's high base effect[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, recorded a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but reached a six-month high of 0.3% month-on-month[2] PPI Insights - The PPI in January 2026 decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[2] - Key industries showed price increases, such as photovoltaic equipment manufacturing up 1.9% and computer manufacturing up 0.5% month-on-month[2] - Energy-related industries continued to see price declines, with oil and gas extraction prices down 16.7% and coal mining down 9.8%[2] Future Projections - February 2026 CPI is expected to rise by 1.3% year-on-year, potentially the highest since February 2023, driven by the Spring Festival demand shift[2] - The anticipated month-on-month CPI increase for February is around 0.9%, with new price factors contributing 1.1%[2] - The PPI is projected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026, reflecting improved industrial price conditions and a gradual recovery of economic momentum[2] Risk Considerations - There is a risk that domestic policy effects may not meet expectations, which could impact inflation and economic recovery[2]

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2026 年 02 月 11 日 AI 驱动 DRAM 与逻辑资本开支高增，中国投资重心向逻辑芯片切换 分业务：1）半导体生产设备部门：营收 3851 亿日元，同比-24.6%/环比-15.4%， 其中 DRAM/NVM/非存储芯片（逻辑、代工、其他）营收分别为 1386/308/2157 亿日元，占比 36%/8%/56%，环比+9pcts/-6pcts/-3pcts；2）售后服务业务：营 收 1616 亿日元，同比+14.2%/环比+0.8%，主要系客户稼动率提高，备件业务 表现坚挺，且继第二季度后，改造项目依然维持高水平。分地区：1）中国大陆 地区：收入 1755 亿日元，同比-37.2%/环比-30.9%，占比 31.8%/环比-8pcts； 2）中国台湾地区：收入 1119 亿日元，同比-6.2%/环比-6.5%，占比 20.3%/环 比+1pct；3）韩国：收入 1497 亿日元，同比+30.7%/环比+13%，占比 27.1%/ 环比+6pcts；4）日本：收入 393 亿日元，同比-13.2%/环比-25.7%，占比 7.1%/ 环比-1pct；5）北美地区：收 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2026 年 2 月 11 日 冲击高峰已过，恒科触底反弹 ——港股 2 月策略月报 近期恒生科技走势较弱，我们坚定认为这是一次剧烈的流动性冲击，港股科技 的基本面与做多逻辑没有发生改变。当前海外流动性冲击高峰已过，"buy the dip"是有效策略，并且港股科技相对于 A 股科技的折价接近历史最高水平，或 将迎来触底反弹。往后看去，我们建议逢低买入、持股过节，细分方向上推荐 科技（AI 与互联网）、非银（保险）与红利。 ❑ 配置策略：科技（AI 与互联网、高端制造），非银（保险），红利 ❑ 风险提示：1）美联储货币政策转向；2）流动性大幅波动；3）黑天鹅事件。 专题报告 相关报告 3、《当前时点坚定看好恒生科 技的六大理由——港股系列研 究报告（3）》 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 王德健 研究助理 wangdejian@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 港股 2 月核心观点。近期以恒生科技为代表的港 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2026 年 2 月 11 日 融资资金加速流出，资金面边际好转 ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（0211） 3. 《春节前后资金流入的特征如 何？——金融市场流动性与监管 动态周报（0203）》 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 100.78↓ | | ETF 净申购 | -60.80↑ | | 融资净买入 | -515.96↓ | | 资金需求 | | | 限售解禁 | 1019.81↑ | | IPO 融资 | 13.99↓ | | 净减持金额 | 66.58↓ | | 计划减持金额 | 128.75↓ | | 活跃度 | | | A 股周度日均成交额 | 24066.54↓ | | 二级市场可跟踪资金供需持续净流出 | | 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 田登位 S1090524080002 tiandengw ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for key companies in the industry, specifically Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu, while suggesting an increase in holdings for Yingjia Gongjiu [8][28]. Core Insights - The overall sales decline in the industry before the Spring Festival aligns with expectations, with Moutai showing leading performance. The industry is experiencing a double-digit sales decline, but demand is gradually recovering as the Spring Festival approaches. The pressure on channels is easing, and confidence in the industry is expected to improve [1][12]. - Moutai's sales volume and price have exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in demand from traditional channels. The report anticipates a net increase of over 2,000 tons in January [1][12]. - The report highlights a clear differentiation among brands, with Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu outperforming the industry, while other brands are experiencing varying degrees of decline. The next high-end price segment is under significant pressure [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Regional Sales Feedback - The report summarizes feedback from various regions, indicating that the overall sales decline is in line with expectations. Moutai's performance is notably strong, with double-digit growth in sales volume. Other brands, such as Wuliangye, show regional sales differentiation, particularly in areas like Sichuan, where sales have accelerated due to previous inventory control measures [1][12][15]. 2. Core Company Tracking - Guizhou Moutai's sales are expected to continue growing, with a current average delivery progress exceeding 30%. The report notes that Moutai's inventory is low, and the market remains in a supply-demand imbalance, supporting price stability [24][28]. - Wuliangye's sales are stable, with delivery progress around 35-40%. The report indicates that the brand's performance is slightly better than last year, particularly in regions like Sichuan and Anhui [24][28]. - Luzhou Laojiao is experiencing slower sales, with delivery progress below 20%. The brand's high-end products are facing a decline in demand, while lower-end products still show some demand [25][28]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's sales are performing better than the industry average, with a stable inventory situation and continued growth in certain products [25][28]. - Yingjia Gongjiu is expected to see a slight decline in sales, but certain products are performing relatively well [26][28]. 3. Industry Holdings Analysis - The report notes that institutional holdings in the liquor sector are at historical lows, with a significant decrease in the proportion of active fund holdings in the liquor sector. This trend indicates a potential for recovery as the market stabilizes [2][8].

Group 1 - The overall performance of A-shares is expected to continue improving, with a projected net profit growth rate of 26.8% for 2025, indicating a single-digit growth trend [5][23][27] - Approximately 2954 A-share companies have disclosed their 2025 annual performance forecasts, with a disclosure rate of about 54% and a positive forecast rate of 36.9%, which is lower than the mid-year report but higher than the same period last year [12][18][23] - Key sectors expected to see performance improvement include the price increase chain, overseas expansion chain, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors, driven by demand from AI and new energy [2][29][30] Group 2 - The major industry performance rankings for 2025 are led by Information Technology, followed by Healthcare, Midstream Manufacturing, Resource Products, Financial Real Estate, and Public Utilities [26][27] - The sectors with the highest expected profit growth include non-bank financials, beauty care, textiles, retail, and non-ferrous metals, with non-bank financials showing a positive forecast rate of 87.5% [18][20] - The price increase chain, which includes industrial metals, energy metals, and chemical products, is expected to benefit from limited capacity expansion and demand driven by AI and new energy, leading to improved performance [29][31] Group 3 - The TMT sector is projected to maintain high growth due to strong demand for AI computing and storage, with specific areas like semiconductors and communication devices expected to see significant profit increases [29][30] - The overseas expansion chain, including automotive parts and medical devices, is anticipated to benefit from stable domestic demand and improving external demand [29][30] - Other sectors such as personal care products, medical services, and seasoning products are also recommended for attention due to their potential for performance improvement [2][29]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to financial engineering or ESG analysis[1][2][3][4] - The content primarily focuses on ESG market trends, policy updates, and industry developments without discussing specific quantitative models or factor construction methodologies[9][10][11] - No formulas, construction processes, or performance metrics for models or factors are provided in the report[12][13][14]