Group 1 - The report highlights a focus on sectors with "inventory stabilization at low levels, capacity structure optimization, and continuous improvement in prosperity" for December [1][5] - The market experienced significant fluctuations due to multiple factors, including the cooling of Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations and ongoing inflation concerns, with cyclical sectors and defensive industries performing relatively well [1][5] - Recommended sectors for investment include non-bank financials, power equipment (batteries, inverters, wind power equipment), defense and military, coal, basic chemicals, and steel [1][5] Group 2 - Economic data from January to October indicates a continuous slowdown, influenced by high bases, anti-involution policies, and reduced local investment [5] - The report notes that the supply side has seen significant capacity clearance, with some industries beginning to see improvements in capacity utilization rates as demand recovers [5][9] - The report emphasizes that the third quarter saw an unexpected improvement in A-share earnings, particularly in consumer services, resource products, and midstream manufacturing [5][9] Group 3 - The report identifies specific sectors for attention, including non-bank financials, where leading brokerages are accelerating consolidation, and insurance companies are expected to see high growth in profitability [6] - In the power equipment sector, the supply-demand landscape is improving, with prices in the new energy and photovoltaic supply chain continuing to rise [6] - The defense and military sector is expected to benefit from increased global military spending and demand for military trade, driven by geopolitical tensions [6] Group 4 - The coal industry is experiencing a tightening supply due to stricter safety regulations, with winter heating supporting stable demand for thermal coal [6] - Basic chemicals are seeing a structural improvement in demand, particularly in the pesticide sector, which is benefiting from reduced internal competition [6] - The steel industry is expected to see structural opportunities driven by high-end manufacturing demand, particularly from emerging industries like new energy vehicles and humanoid robots [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the recovery of the restaurant chain sector and highlights the upcoming Moutai shareholders' meeting as a point of interest [10][18]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is characterized as having low expectations and low holdings, with a potential for a rebound due to rising CPI and positive micro-consumption data [10][18]. - Key companies such as Yili and H&H International are focusing on balancing growth and profitability, with Yili enhancing its dividend commitments and H&H adjusting its revenue guidance upwards [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities within the restaurant chain and liquor sectors, recommending specific companies for investment [10][18]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Yili is focusing on quality leadership and strategic expansion while improving shareholder returns, with a positive outlook on its liquid milk segment and overall profitability [3][12]. - H&H International has seen a significant revenue increase, with a 28.5% year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, and is optimizing its debt structure while expanding its online and overseas markets [3][12]. - The report notes that Q3 growth for Yihai International has slightly slowed, but overseas markets continue to perform well, with a focus on product structure optimization to improve margins [3][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend the recovery of the restaurant chain sector, with specific mentions of companies like Haidilao, Angel Yeast, and China Resources Beer as potential investments [10][18]. - For the liquor sector, Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu are highlighted as top picks, with a focus on valuation shifts in growth segments such as snacks and pet food [10][18]. Industry Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating market capitalizations and profit forecasts, with Moutai having a market cap of 183.66 billion and a projected net profit of 74.73 billion for 2023 [19].

证券研究报告|行业定期报告 2025 年 11 月 23 日 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 11 月 23 日 10 月用电量增速全面提升至 10.4%，创年内新高 环保公用事业行业周报（2025/11/23） 周期/环保及公用事业 本周环保与公用事业板块均有下跌。环保（申万）行业指数下跌 6.02%，公用 事业（申万）行业指数下跌 4.33%，相对市场整体跌幅较大。 推荐（维持） | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 242 | 4.7 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3985.6 | 3.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3690.7 | 4.0 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 2.1 16.0 18.3 相对表现 5.4 2.2 6.7 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Nov/24 Mar/25 Jul/25 Oct/25 (%) 环保及公用事业 沪深300 相关报告 1 、《环保公用事业行业周报 （20251116）：火电发电量由降转增， 水电电量保持较高增长》2025-11-17 2 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 11 月 23 日 利率价量择时观点整体转为偏空 美债价量周期择时信号：看多 - 基于美国市场 10 年期国债 YTM 数据判断的多周期择时信号为： 长周期向上突破、中周期向下突破、短周期向下突破。综合来看， 当前合计下行突破 2 票、上行突破 1 票，最终信号的综合评分结 果为看多。 国内利率价量多周期择时策略表现 - 自 2024 年底以来，基于 5/10/30 年期国债 YTM 价量趋势的交易策 略年化收益率分别为 2.24%、2.69%、3.25%，最大回撤为 0.75%、 1.01%、1.78%，收益回撤比为 3.8、4.65、3.54，相对业绩基准的 超额收益率为 0.81%、1.39%、2.57%。2008 年以来，各策略逐年 绝对收益和超额收益大于 0 的概率均接近 100%。 风险提示：本报告基于对历史数据的分析，当市场环境变化时，存在失效 风险。 专题报告 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 梁雨辰 S1090523070008 liangyuchen2@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 11 月 23 日 10 月推盘未售去化周期较 9 月上升 ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 11 月 20 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 11 月 20 日） | 新房（11 | 月 | 1 日-11 月 | 20 日） | 二手房（11 | 月 | 1 日-11 月 | 20 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 10 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 10 月 | | 样本城市 | | | | 样本城市 | -12% | -收窄 | +10 PCT | | 城） （39 | -33% | -扩大 | -6 PCT | 城） （16 | | | | | 一线城市 | -40% | -扩大 | -4 PCT | 一线城市 | -20% | -收窄 | +7 PCT | | （4 城） | | | | （2 城） | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [3]. Core Insights - Google has released the Gemini 3 large model, which includes the Gemini 3 Pro preview and Gemini 3 Deep Think mode, showcasing significant advancements in AI capabilities [6][9]. - The Google Antigravity platform has been launched, transforming AI assistance into an active partner for developers, enhancing task execution and code verification [12][15]. - The Nano Banana Pro model has been introduced, featuring high-resolution output and advanced image generation capabilities, integrating multimodal understanding and Google's knowledge base [18][16]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 286 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 4,122.9 billion and a circulating market value of about 3,648.6 billion [3]. - The computer sector experienced a decline of 2.74% in the third week of November 2025, with notable stock performances from companies like Rongji Software and *ST Dongtong [19][20]. Market Performance - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is recorded at 0.4%, 16.2%, and 16.7% respectively, while relative performance stands at 3.7%, 2.5%, and 5.1% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [2]. Core Insights - AI has emerged as a new growth engine for performance, with significant capital expenditures from major cloud providers driving revenue growth in related cloud businesses [1][6]. - The report highlights that the demand for AI computing power remains robust, with companies like NVIDIA reporting record revenues and strong future guidance [6][42]. - SaaS companies are experiencing substantial revenue growth, largely attributed to the application of AI technologies [54]. Summary by Sections Cloud: Continued Increase in Capital Expenditures - Major cloud providers collectively invested over $110 billion in capital expenditures in Q3 CY25, with AI being a key driver for this increase [6][13]. - Amazon's capital expenditure surged by 55% to $35.1 billion, surpassing Microsoft as the largest spender in a single quarter [6][18]. - Future guidance indicates that cloud providers will continue to increase capital expenditures focused on AI and data center infrastructure [6][18]. Computing Power: Performance Orders Exceeding Expectations - NVIDIA reported a 62% increase in revenue for Q3 FY26, with data center revenue reaching $51.2 billion, a 66% year-over-year growth [42][45]. - AMD also achieved record revenues of $9.2 billion in Q3, driven by strong demand for its EPYC and Ryzen processors [50][51]. Applications: Overview of SaaS Company Performance - SaaS companies reported significant revenue growth in Q3 CY25, with many exceeding expectations due to AI technology applications [54][55]. - ServiceNow's subscription revenue grew by 21.5%, while Palantir's revenue increased by 63%, driven by demand for its AIP platform [57][58]. - AppLovin's revenue rose by 68%, supported by its AI-driven advertising technology [60].

Domestic Economic Outlook - The annual economic growth target is largely achieved, but Q4 growth may further slow down, with high-frequency data indicating a significant decline in asphalt and cement production rates compared to the same period last year[6][17]. - October fiscal data suggests adjustments in year-end fiscal rhythm, allowing for a lower completion rate of the annual budget, with a notable decrease in expenditure despite a good revenue month[6][20]. Overseas Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve may skip interest rate cuts in December, which could lead to continued pressure on U.S. stocks and have a spillover effect on the domestic market[6][18]. - The October FOMC minutes reveal serious divisions regarding potential rate cuts, with concerns that further cuts could exacerbate inflation risks[6][18]. - The Epstein case is gaining attention, with potential implications for U.S. political stability, as it could lead to significant repercussions across various sectors[6][18]. Asset Allocation Insights - Domestic investment institutions are expected to start positioning for 2026 in December, driven by anticipated monetary easing following the appointment of a new Fed chair[6][19]. - The Q2 2026 PCE index is likely to turn positive, potentially signaling the start of an inflationary trend[6][19]. Market Performance Overview - A-shares experienced collective declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% this week, while the Shenzhen Component fell 5.13%[40]. - The U.S. stock market also faced downward adjustments, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreasing by 1.91%[40].

Group 1 - Recent adjustments in the A-share market are primarily due to weak domestic economic data, a strong US dollar index, year-end performance pressures, and a cautious funding environment [2][4][50] - The key signals for market stabilization will come from the political bureau meeting and the central economic work conference scheduled for December, which are expected to provide strong expansionary policies [5][50][51] - The market is likely to remain in a data and policy vacuum in the short term, but there is potential for a rebound in the first quarter of the following year, with a high probability of reaching new highs [6][51] Group 2 - The performance of technology stocks may lag behind large-cap blue-chip and financial cyclical stocks during this period, with a focus on cyclical resource price increases, service consumption, and self-sufficiency as the main investment themes [6][51] - The A-share market has shown a significant adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 3.9% and the CSI 300 Index falling 3.8% in a single week, marking the largest weekly decline since April [7][50] - The small-cap stocks have faced increased pressure as they approach the performance disclosure period, leading to a notable underperformance compared to larger indices [20][21][50]

汽车行业周报 ❑ 个股行情回顾 汽车板块个股：本周，汽车板块个股下跌居多。其中，涨幅居前的个股有天 普股份（+14.7%）、路畅科技（+8.1%）和浙江荣泰（+7.6%）；跌幅居前 的个股有富临精工（-20.3%）、新朋股份（-18.1%）和立中集团（-17.2%）。 重点覆盖个股：本周，已覆盖个股周度下跌居多。其中，涨幅居前的个股为 康隆达（+8.3%）、华纬科技（+4.3%）和江淮汽车（+0.8%）；跌幅居前的 个股有道氏技术（-15.5%）、星源卓镁（-14.7%）和神驰机电（-11.7%）。 华为连发"两境"新品牌，特斯拉开放 Robotaxi 服务 中游制造/汽车 ❑ 风险提示：生产不及预期；消费不及预期；盈利不及预期。 11 月 16 日至 11 月 23 日，汽车行业整体下跌 5.1%。11 月 20 日，东风与华为 乾崑深度合作的 DH 项目中文品牌定名"奕境"，首款车型将于明年 4 月的北 京车展发布，后续每年至少有一款全新车型上市。同日，启境品牌将在华为乾 崑生态大会上正式发布，明年启境计划推出两款车型，首款车型将于明年 6 月 上市交付。 证券研究报告|行业定期报告 2025 年 11 ...