证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2026 年 01 月 28 日 鸣鸣很忙（01768.HK） 多维领先，强者恒强，两万店龙头乘势而上 消费/商业 量贩零食渠道效率大幅领先，预计行业规模持续增长；同时公司作为行业龙头， 团队优质，供应链、仓配、拓展、品牌等多维领先，规模效应下预计强者恒强， 份额进一步提升，利润逐步释放。首次覆盖给予"强烈推荐"评级。 ❑ 风险提示：拓店速度、同店增长不及预期，行业竞争加剧，食品安全风险等。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万元) | 10295 | 39344 | 64943 | 85987 | 99689 | | 同比增长 | 140% | 282% | 65% | 32% | 16% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 329 | 1132 | 3142 | 4557 | 5782 | | 同比增长 | 229% | 244% | 178% | 45% | 27% | | 经调整净利润(百万元) | 235 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 ETF 大幅净流出，融资资金转负 ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（1014） 本周 ETF 出现了较大规模的资金流出，结合多方面信息来看，政策对市场降温 的力度正在不断加大，以防止市场大起大落。未来 A 股走势有望更加稳健。应 对策略上，淡化指数波动，继续配置高业绩增速板块为主要方向，包括顺周期 中的涨价资源品、科技领域的半导体等，服务业消费和港股科技也可重点关注。 3. 《规模指数 ETF 净流出，融资 买入额占两市交易额比例回落 ——金融市场流动性与监管动态 周报（0120）》 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 290.54↑ | | ETF 净申购 | -3328.35↓ | | 融资净买入 | -82.65↓ | | 资金需求 | | | 限售解禁 | 584.22↑ | | IPO 融资 | 35.65↑ | | 净减持金额 | 117.88↓ | | 计划减持金额 | 186.00↓ | | 活跃度 | | | A 股周 ...

Group 1: Industrial Performance Overview - In December 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of revenue for large-scale industrial enterprises was 1.1%, down from 1.6% in November 2025[1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of profits for large-scale industrial enterprises increased to 0.6% in December 2025, up from 0.1% in November 2025[1] - December 2025 saw a significant recovery in monthly profit growth, turning positive at 5.3%, a rebound of 18.4 percentage points from the previous month's -13.1%[2] Group 2: Profit and Revenue Dynamics - Despite the positive profit growth, December's revenue growth was negative at -2.98%, indicating ongoing challenges in revenue generation[2] - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased by 3.8 days year-on-year to 67.9 days, reflecting continued cash flow and operational pressures on enterprises[2] - The overall profit growth for industrial enterprises remains low, influenced by high base effects and weak domestic demand, with operating costs rising by 1.3% compared to a 1.1% increase in revenue[5] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The upstream mining sector continues to be the largest drag on overall industry performance, with coal and oil extraction showing significant declines, while non-ferrous metal mining performed well[5] - The profit growth for the raw materials manufacturing sector was 10.3% in December, indicating stabilization in traditional manufacturing due to new policy-driven financial tools[5] - Downstream consumer goods saw a sharp decline in profit growth, recorded at -7.9%, worsening from -6.9% in the previous month, linked to declining retail consumption growth[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Industrial profit growth is expected to remain positive in January and February 2026, supported by a low base effect from the previous year and the impact of policy-driven financial tools[5] - Forward-looking indicators, including the January Business Confidence Index (BCI) for investment, sales, and profit, showed significant recovery, suggesting a continuation of the improving trend in enterprise profits[5]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2026 年 01 月 27 日 把握金融周期的波动 ——构建招商中国金融条件指数 ❑ 风险提示：国内、国际金融环境结构性变化。 谢亚轩 S1090511030010 xieyx@cmschina.com.cn 刘亚欣 S1090516100001 liuyaxin@cmschina.com.cn （霍卓翔博士对报告做出重要贡献。） 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 专题报告 | 一、 关于金融条件指数（FCI） 4 | | --- | | 二、 金融周期的观念有助于更深刻理解经济现实 5 | | 三、 监测金融条件指数旨在把握金融周期波动 7 | | 四、 编制招商中国金融条件指数 9 | | 五、 招商中国金融条件指数的两个特色 11 | | 图 | 1：国际清算银行金融条件指数分项走势 | 7 | | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 2：2008 年以来招商中国金融条件指数变化 | 10 | | 图 | 3：招商中国金融条件指数与其他主流指数对比 | 11 | | 表 | 1：金融条件指数的主要构成因素 | 4 | | 表 | 2：金融周期相关理论 | 5 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the food and beverage sector, recommending leading companies in snacks and condiments [7][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in retail sales growth, with December's year-on-year growth at 0.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from November, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending [8]. - The food and beverage sector shows positive signals, particularly for Moutai, which is expected to maintain stable pricing due to supply-side constraints and increasing demand [9][10]. - The report anticipates that service consumption will be the main growth driver for 2026, with an expected overall consumption growth rate of 5.1% [8]. Industry Size - The industry comprises 1,216 stocks, with a total market capitalization of 17,809.1 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 16,466.7 billion [3]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 4.4%, 7.0%, and 27.3% respectively, while the relative performance is 3.4%, -7.1%, and 4.5% [5]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in various sectors, including: - Food and beverage: Emphasis on Moutai and other snack brands [9]. - Textile: Anticipation of a turnaround for Li Ning in 2026 [13][14]. - E-commerce: Positive outlook on Alibaba due to its cloud business growth potential [24]. - Agriculture: Continued recommendation of leading pig farming companies and attention to planting policy catalysts [30]. Specific Company Insights - Moutai is expected to see stable pricing and growth in demand, with a focus on core products [9]. - Li Ning is actively launching new products and expanding its retail presence, aiming for a rebound in 2026 [13][14]. - Alibaba's cloud business is projected to accelerate growth driven by AI advancements [24]. - The agricultural sector is advised to focus on leading pig farming companies and the implications of planting policies [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - The transition to a subscription model for Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) is seen as a significant shift, with the potential for increased penetration rates and confidence in the business model [2][4]. - The introduction of real-time mileage insurance discounts by Lemonade for FSD users highlights the recognized safety benefits of FSD compared to human drivers, which could further enhance the commercial viability of the FSD subscription model [3][4]. - The testing of Robotaxi without safety drivers in Austin marks a pivotal moment for the industry, with expectations for increased deployment throughout the year [5][6]. - The potential approval of FSD in Europe and China is viewed optimistically, with implications for broader market acceptance and growth in 2026 [7][12]. Summary by Sections Event 1: FSD Subscription Model - Tesla has shifted to a subscription-only model for FSD, with a current penetration rate of approximately 22% in the U.S. This is expected to rise significantly following the cancellation of the buyout option and the end of free trials [2]. - The anticipated price increase for FSD subscriptions reflects a shift in strategy, moving away from price reductions to enhance penetration [2]. Event 2: Insurance Model - Lemonade's new car insurance policy offers a 50% discount on premiums when FSD is activated, indicating a recognition of FSD's safety advantages [3][4]. - The average accident rate for FSD is reported to be significantly lower than the national average, further supporting the case for its adoption [4]. Event 3: Robotaxi Testing - The initial testing of Robotaxi without safety drivers is underway, although most vehicles still have safety drivers. This is seen as a starting point for future developments in autonomous driving [5][6]. Event 4: Regulatory Approvals - Optimism surrounds the potential approval of FSD in Europe, with a possibility of broader EU acceptance based on mutual recognition mechanisms [7][12]. - Caution is advised regarding the timeline for FSD approval in China, with the market currently showing limited sensitivity to this development [12].

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2026 年 01 月 26 日 金属价格为何如此繁荣 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年第 3 期） 频率：每周 目前金属价格繁荣是供给逻辑的结果，新一轮技术革命的迹象越来越明显，那 么未来商品价格上涨可能会转换为需求逻辑，这意味着当前较弱的能源产品价 格也会重新进入上升通道。 风险提示：地缘政治风险、国内政策落地不及预期、全球衰退及主要经济体货 币政策超预期。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 56 ——地方国资会议定调改革深 化，多元布局培育新质生产 力》2026-01-25 2、《地缘紧张此起彼伏——— 国际时政周评》2026-01-25 3、《开年投资呈现积极迹象— 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年 第 2 期）》2026-01-19 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1 月 26 日，以有色金属为代表的资源品价格继续创新高。其中，伦敦现货黄 金价格一度突破 5100 美元/盎 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for Chunhui Intelligent Control [1][3]. Core Insights - Chunhui Intelligent Control has proposed to acquire the remaining 61.31% stake in Chunhui Instrument, which is a key supplier in the SOFC and aerospace markets. This acquisition is expected to significantly enhance the company's performance and market position [1][7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand in the SOFC and commercial aerospace sectors, with a clear dual-driver growth strategy [7][8]. Summary by Sections Acquisition of Chunhui Instrument - Chunhui Intelligent Control aims to fully acquire Chunhui Instrument through a combination of shares and cash, with a total transaction value of approximately 258 million yuan. This acquisition will allow the company to gain 100% control over Chunhui Instrument, which specializes in high-end temperature sensors and precision heaters [11][12]. - The acquisition is expected to create synergies in technology, business, and finance, enhancing the company's capabilities in smart gas and heating solutions [7][11]. Product Competitiveness and Order Growth - Chunhui Instrument has shown strong competitiveness with a significant increase in orders, particularly in temperature sensors, which have doubled due to the surge in SOFC demand. The company reported a 74% increase in order backlog as of September 2025 [17][29]. - The gross margin for core products, particularly temperature sensors supplied to Bloom Energy, is notably high at 57.4%, surpassing industry averages [29][30]. SOFC and Commercial Aerospace Market Potential - The SOFC market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by increasing energy demands from data centers. Each gigawatt of SOFC installation corresponds to a temperature sensor demand of approximately 100-200 million yuan, indicating a potential global market size of nearly 2 billion yuan [7][8]. - In the commercial aerospace sector, the company is positioned to capture a market potentially worth 1-2 billion yuan, with existing contracts for satellite heating devices already in place [7][8]. Financial Performance and Projections - Chunhui Intelligent Control's revenue is projected to grow from 467 million yuan in 2023 to 612 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7% [2]. - The company's net profit is expected to recover from a dip in 2024, with projections of 66 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this area [1][8]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector is experiencing a continued high level of activity, with significant increases in holdings in both the brokerage and insurance segments. The brokerage sector's holdings increased to 0.99%, while the insurance sector saw a substantial rise to 2.04% [1][7]. - The overall fund net asset value reached 36.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2% [12]. - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from improved market conditions, with a projected net profit increase of 26% year-on-year for Q4 2025 [19][20]. - The insurance sector is poised for strong performance in 2026, driven by favorable market conditions and a significant increase in new policy premiums [22][23]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Market Size - As of Q4 2025, the total net asset value of public funds was 36.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2% [12]. - The non-monetary fund size reached 21.7 trillion yuan, growing 16% year-on-year [12]. Non-Bank Sector Holdings Analysis Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector's holdings increased to 0.99%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, with a total of 7.71 billion shares held, reflecting a 17.9% quarter-on-quarter increase [20]. - Major brokerages such as CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan saw significant increases in their holdings, with respective increases of 0.14 and 0.07 percentage points [20][21]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's holdings rose to 2.04%, a significant increase of 0.97 percentage points from the previous quarter, exceeding the benchmark allocation [23]. - Key players like Ping An and China Life experienced notable increases in their holdings, with Ping An's allocation rising by 0.68 percentage points [23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key stocks within the brokerage sector, including Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities, as well as major insurance companies like Ping An and China Life [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Recommended" based on the positive outlook for the sector and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [3]. Core Insights - The UK government has launched a £15 billion "Warm Home Plan" aimed at helping millions of households install solar panels, energy storage, heat pumps, and insulation materials, significantly stimulating the home storage and heat pump sectors [1][6]. - The plan is expected to upgrade up to 5 million homes and help 1 million households escape energy poverty by 2030, leveraging £15 billion in subsidies to attract a total investment of £38 billion [6]. - The distribution of the subsidy includes £4.4 billion for low-income home upgrades, £2.7 billion for heat pump subsidies, £1.1 billion for heating network construction, and £5.3 billion for a loan fund [7]. - The home storage market is projected to exceed £100 billion by 2030 due to the estimated scale of home upgrades [6]. - The heat pump sector has a specific subsidy of £2.7 billion, with targets to install 450,000 and 1.5 million units annually by 2030 and 2035, respectively, indicating significant growth potential [6]. Company Summaries - **Airo Energy**: A leading distributed solar storage company with a strong focus on overseas markets, expected to perform well this year due to increased R&D and product diversification [8]. - **GoodWe**: A traditional home storage company with strong channel capabilities and advanced technology, well-established in the European market [8]. - **Sungrow Power Supply**: A top global solar storage company with a robust overseas presence, generating significant revenue from storage products [8]. - **Deye Technology**: Strong competitive edge in home storage, with a well-established global sales network and advanced manufacturing capabilities [8]. - **Rujing Technology**: A core supplier of heat pump controllers, with products widely used in major brands [10]. Financial Metrics of Key Companies - Airo Energy: Market Cap £14.6 billion, 2024 EPS £1.3, 2025 EPS £0.7, PE 140, PB 3, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Sungrow Power Supply: Market Cap £338 billion, 2024 EPS £5.3, 2025 EPS £6.6, PE 25, PB 8, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Deye Technology: Market Cap £80.5 billion, 2024 EPS £4.6, 2025 EPS £4.0, PE 22, PB 10, Investment Rating: Increase Holding [2].