Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic player in the special seamless steel pipe industry, with a solid operational foundation. Its boiler pipe business is expected to grow rapidly, contributing significantly to revenue, particularly from HRSG boiler pipes used in gas turbine power generation [1][7]. - The company has a healthy financial position, with a low debt ratio and substantial cash reserves, which supports its operational stability and growth potential [23][32]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6,661 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 7%. However, a decline of 14% is expected in 2024, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 783 million RMB in 2023, with a significant drop of 19% anticipated in 2024 [2]. - The company maintains a low debt ratio of 34% and has cash reserves exceeding 30 billion RMB, indicating strong liquidity [32][33]. Business Overview - The company has transitioned from a traditional steel pipe manufacturer to a provider of specialized pipe solutions for high-end manufacturing and emerging industries [12][15]. - The boiler pipe segment has become a core growth driver, with its revenue share increasing from 23% in 2022 to over 40% currently [1][7]. - The company has established itself in the international supply chain for electrical equipment, supplying HRSG boiler pipes to major global players like GEV and Mitsubishi [1][7]. Market Dynamics - The demand for gas turbines is expected to surge due to the development of overseas power systems and AI data centers, which will benefit the company's HRSG boiler pipe business [1][7]. - The North American gas turbine market is experiencing a supply-demand mismatch, presenting an opportunity for the company to expand its customer base [31]. Management and Ownership - The company's ownership structure is stable, with the chairman and his family holding a significant portion of shares, ensuring continuity in management [17][20]. - The management team consists of experienced individuals who have been with the company for a long time, contributing to its strategic direction and operational efficiency [21][22].

Core Insights - The report maintains a "recommended" investment rating for the coal mining industry, highlighting a tightening supply and expected demand release during winter, which is anticipated to stabilize coal prices within a reasonable range [1][2]. Policy Impact - The 2025 coal industry policies focus on "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" and "controlling production and improving quality," with measures to enhance supply resilience and promote industry transformation towards carbon neutrality [6][11]. - The implementation of the overproduction inspection policy in July 2025 aims to curb excessive competition and stabilize coal prices, which had been under pressure earlier in the year [12][11]. Supply and Demand Analysis - For thermal coal, supply is expected to contract while demand is projected to grow, with coal production growth slowing down and imports anticipated to decline by about 10% in 2025 [6][35]. - The demand for thermal coal is expected to remain stable, supported by a potential cold winter and increased electricity consumption during peak seasons [38][39]. Price Dynamics - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal is likely to recover due to a combination of supply constraints and seasonal demand increases, with the price expected to rise from approximately 620 CNY/ton in July 2025 to around 820 CNY/ton by November 2025 [18][6]. Coking Coal Outlook - Coking coal, being a scarce resource, is expected to see limited supply growth, but demand may rebound due to recovery in the real estate and infrastructure sectors, which could stimulate steel production and, consequently, coking coal consumption [6][42]. - The report emphasizes that coking coal prices are more elastic and could see significant growth potential in response to demand recovery [6][7]. Investment Strategy - The coal sector is viewed as having long-term investment value, driven by both dividend and cyclical factors, with recommendations to focus on leading companies with strong dividend yields and potential for growth [7][6]. - Key companies to watch include China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry for stable dividends, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Huaibei Mining for their market-driven growth potential [7][6].

国内方面，中央经济工作会议将"双碳"引领列为 2026 重点，推动绿色转型 深化；工信部与央行联合发文，推动金融资源精准支持绿色工厂的技术攻关与零碳 转型；国家发改委公布第二轮生态产品价值实现机制试点名单，要求 25 个地区及海 南热带雨林国家公园探索"以碳生金"等市场化路径，以点带面破解制度瓶颈；广东发 布转型金融标准引导 400 亿元授信流向高碳行业。 国际方面，ISSB 定向修订 IFRS S2，放宽金融机构 Scope 3 披露要求；美国联 邦法院撤销风电审批冻结令，但行政部门仍可审查项目；特朗普签署行政令强化代 理投票顾问监管，重点审查 ESG 与 DEI 投票影响；欧盟达成《气候法》修订临时 协议，设立 2040 减排 90%中期目标，并允许碳信用额与碳移除手段应用。 2、市场动向：ESG 指数表现分化，绿色转型资金短期承压 本周国内 ESG 指数分化，SEEE 碳中和指数微跌 0.02%，300 ESG、上证社会 责任与 180 治理指数跌幅在 0.47%-0.68%。海外方面，标普 Kensho 清洁电力指数 近三月涨 23.77%，今年以来累涨 54.94%，持续领涨。 碳市场方面，国内 C ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 如何提高居民消费率？ 根据消费经济的一般演进路径，随着居民收入不断提高，消费重心会逐渐从日 常消耗品转向耐用商品，并进一步向服务领域扩展。当前，我国人均 GDP 已 跃升至 1.3 万美元以上，居民消费格局呈现出从商品主导向服务主导转变的趋 势。与一般发达国家相比，我国服务消费占比明显偏低，"十五五"时期提升 居民消费率的战略选择就是大力发展服务消费。 ❑ 消费的宏观特征：消费率低，但消费量并不低；政府消费占比较高，居民 消费率偏低；实物消费占比高，而服务型消费占比低。 1）中国整体消费率（最终消费支出/GDP）明显低于一般发达国家，但最 终消费量并不低，剔除价格、汇率等因素，按照购买力平价后的绝对消费 量接近美国，且大于整个欧盟总和；由于中国属于制造业大国，国内商 品、服务价格普遍低于国际平均水平。 2）最终消费结构中，中国居民消费率（居民消费支出/GDP）不仅低于全 球平均水平，而且低于同为发展中国家的印度、巴西等国；中国政府消费 额以及占 GDP 的比重均高于全球水平，亦高于一般发达国家，形成了 "官方消费比民间旺盛"的独特现象。 3）与 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 服务消费是提高居民消费率的主要抓手之一 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 47 期） 频率：每周 当前，释放服务消费潜力对提高居民消费的边际空间更大，地方政府的手段更 多。因此，我们预计未来五年服务消费是提高居民消费率的关键因素。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 53 ——央国企整合呈现多元模 式，契合"十五五"盘活主 线》2025-12-15 2、《大国协调下的地缘冲突— ——国际时政周评》2025-12-14 3、《还需一点催化剂——宏观 与大类资产周报》2025-12-14 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 数据显示，2024 年我国居民消费率仅为 39.9%，同年美国居民消费率为 67.9%，韩国居民消费率也比我国高接近 10 个百分点左右，数据为 48.5%。"十五五"规划明确指出要提高居民消费率，这对于构建强大的国 内市场具有决定性的意 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 央国企动态系列报告之 53 —央国企整合呈现多元模式，契合"十五五"盘活主线 频率：双周 央国企资本运作在改革收官与规划开局的关键节点呈现纵深推进态势，央国企 整合模式更趋多元，与"十五五"资产盘活主线深度结合，央地实践共同勾勒 国有经济优化布局的新图景。 风险提示：国企改革的推进进度不及预期，或后续政策方向发生变化；报告中 列示上市公司不涉及投资建议。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 52—"新三年行动"收官在 即，央国企资本运作提速 》 2025-12-1 2、《央国企动态系列报告之 51—地方国资资产盘活提速， 央企红利指数表现相对较优》 2025-11-17 林喜鹏 S1090522050001 linxipeng@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 聚焦主业与审慎决策并存。央企专业化整合持续推进，路径呈现分化。一 方面，中国中冶以逾 600 亿元交易剥离地产、整合矿产资源，坚决回归工 程承包核心主业响应了传统领域"聚焦主责主业"的刚性要求。另一方 面，海光信息与中科曙光的千亿级吸收合并因市场估值 ...

❑ 市场板块行情回顾 汽车行业周报 本周 CS 汽车+0.1%。本周（12 月 7 日至 12 月 13 日，下同）上证 A 指涨跌 幅为-0.3%，深证 A 指涨跌幅为+0.2%，创业板涨跌幅为+2.7%。本周各行业 板块多数下跌，涨幅较大的行业板块为 CS 通信（+5.9%）、CS 国防军工 （+3.6%）和 CS 电子（+2.5%），下跌的行业板块为 CS 煤炭（-3.8%）、 CS 石油石化（-3.4%）和 CS 纺织服装（-2.7%）。 汽车产业链各板块行情：本周，汽车行业二级板块多数上涨，其中摩托车及 其他板块涨幅居前，周涨幅均为+1.7%，汽车服务板块周度有所下跌，周涨幅 为-5.2%。汽车行业三级板块多数上涨，其中摩托车和商用载客车板块涨幅较 大，周涨幅分别为+2.5%和+1.4%，汽车经销商和汽车综合服务板块周度有所 下跌，周跌幅分别为-6.8%和-4.1%。 ❑ 个股行情回顾 汽车板块个股：本周，汽车板块个股上涨居多。其中，涨幅居前的个股有超 捷股份（+39.0%）、华懋科技（+28.5%）和跃岭股份（+21.9%）；跌幅居 前的个股有厦门信达（-13.6%）、嵘泰股份（-10.9%）和隆 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 新房网签面积同比降幅收窄，二手房网签面积同比降幅扩大 推荐（维持） ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 12 月 11 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 12 月 11 日） | 新房（12 | 月 | 1 日-12 月 | 11 日） | 二手房（12 | 月 | 1 日-12 月 | 11 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 11 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 11 月 | | 样本城市 | -30% | -收窄 | +5 PCT | 样本城市 | -34% | -扩大 | -19 PCT | | （39 城） | | | | （16 城） | | | | | 一线城市 | -31% | -收窄 | +10 PCT | 一线城市 | -32% | -扩大 | -7 PCT | | （4 城） ...

国内方面，政治局会议和中央经济工作会议明确来年的经济结构方向，内需重 点在释放服务消费活力、持续推升全要素生产率、随着新旧动能切换适度推进 化解地产与地方债务风险。 海外方面，美联储 12 月 FOMC 虽兑现降息，但市场预期 Q1 降息暂停、技术 性扩表期限与规模也极为有限。19日日本央行行动成为短期关键。除日本外， 交易员也开始押注欧洲央行加息，若未来 1 个月美国与非美货币政策反差加 大，亦将加剧海外资产波动。 还需一点催化剂 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 资产方面，12 月 19 日日本央行大概率落地加息，基于流动性扩张及美元贬值 推动的国内外权益行情仍需等待，预计 2026 年 1 月中下旬美股或重拾升势。 国内资产端短期或可逐步看好红利，1 月中下旬可重新布局恒科，随后转向国 内科技、港股创新药。近期离岸人民币升值与美联储降息、季节性结汇以及中 美贸易缓和等因素有关，结汇激增能否触发港股乃至 A 股转强仍需观察整体宏 观形势。去年 9 月、今年 2 月的脉冲行情过后，恒科均出现了 4 个月的休整 期，今年 9 月休整后，亦有望 ...

Geopolitical Conflicts - Ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine show a tug-of-war, with Ukraine proposing a revised peace plan and emphasizing the need for security guarantees from the U.S. amid internal political pressures[9] - The U.S. continues to exert pressure on Venezuela, with potential military actions being considered to undermine Maduro's government, reflecting domestic political motivations[13] - The U.S. and India are enhancing bilateral trade and energy cooperation, indicating a shift towards a more stable U.S.-India relationship following recent leadership communications[4] Economic Policies and Trade - The U.S. has approved exports of H200 chips to China, signaling a potential easing in tech-related tensions[4] - Ongoing U.S. tariff discussions focus on strategic security industries, with particular attention on semiconductor and critical mineral sectors[19] - The U.S. is engaged in legal proceedings regarding the legitimacy of tariffs, which could impact future trade negotiations with countries like India and Brazil[19] Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.3% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.8%, reflecting mixed market sentiments[5] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 4.1% this week, influenced by geopolitical tensions and ongoing negotiations in conflict regions[5] - The Nasdaq Composite Index saw a decline of 1.6% this week, contributing to a year-to-date increase of 20.1%[5] Risk Factors - Potential unexpected changes in U.S. policies and international relations could pose significant risks to market stability[6] - The geopolitical landscape remains volatile, with ongoing conflicts in various regions likely to impact global economic conditions[20]