阿里云发布并开源 QWEN 3.5，千问 APP 春节下单 2 亿次 商贸社服行业周报 消费品/商业 本周子板块相关观点：1）电商：看好阿里云收入加速增长及 AI 云业务成长潜 力，关注大模型及自研芯片催化，推荐阿里巴巴；龙头电商公司估值低位，推 荐拼多多、京东集团、唯品会。2）本地生活：美团竞争扰动不改公司长期竞争 力与投资价值。3）出行：看好后续旅游板块延续高景气度，旅游产业链上，推 荐关注休闲旅游&出境游相关性较强的 OTA、景区，其次是与出行人次高度相 关的交通，以及商旅需求驱动的酒店。 字节发布豆包大模型 2.0。2 月 14 日豆包正式发布大模型 2.0 版本。豆包 2.0 （Doubao-Seed-2.0）围绕大规模生产环境下的使用需求做了系统性优化， 依托高效推理、多模态理解与复杂指令执行能力，更好地完成真实世界复 杂任务。豆包 2.0 系列包含 Pro、Lite、Mini 三款通用 Agent 模型和 Code 模型，灵活适配各类业务场景：1）豆包 2.0 Pro 面向深度推理与长链路任 务执行场景，全面对标 GPT 5.2 与 Gemini 3 Pro；2）2.0 Lite 兼顾性能与 成 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2026 年 02 月 24 日 信心逐步企稳 白酒春节渠道跟踪报告 消费品/食品饮料 本篇报告重点反馈河南、江苏、四川、山东、安徽等地白酒渠道春节动销情况， 综合来看，26 年春节期间行业动销符合节前预期（双位数下滑），各价格带分 化延续，高端与大众价格带韧性较强、次高端有一定压力。政商务延续承压， 大众消费场景需求提振显著、占比持续提升。除茅台、五粮液等强势品牌外， 多数品牌不再要求开门红，节后库存低于去年同期，渠道压力继续释放，叠加 费用兑付周期加快，经销商与终端信心逐步企稳。价格侧考虑到茅台供需具备 支撑，其他多品牌价格调整接近触底、26 年不再强压任务，后续淡季下探空间 有限，春节后行业配置建议精选强势头部品牌与动销超预期品种。 ❑ 26 年春节动销符合预期、品牌分化延续、渠道信心逐步企稳。 1）行业整体动销方面：26 年春节期间行业动销符合节前预期（双位数下滑）， 分价格带来看，高端与大众价格带韧性较强、次高端具有一定压力。分消费 场景来看，政商务需求仍然承压，家庭消费与个人聚饮等大众消费需求明显 提振，占比持续提升，悦己属性不断强化。 2）任务执行进度方面：当前除 ...

本篇报告梳理了春节假期科技相关热点。全球多个 AI 大模型在春节期间发布重 磅更新，国产 AI 模型算力持续紧张。春晚带动机器人搜索量大增，宇树科技三 登春晚，我国机器人技术持续突破，产业商业化应用渐行渐近。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 285 | 5.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4481.3 | 4.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3977.0 | 3.9 | 行业指数 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 23 日 春节假期科技热点梳理 计算机周观察 20260223 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -6.6 13.6 16.7 相对表现 -4.5 2.1 -2.6 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Feb/25 Jun/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 (%) 计算机 沪深300 相关报告 1、《AI 军备竞赛持续升级，关注高 壁垒软件及云服务——计算机周观察 20260208》2026-02-08 2、《AI 入口大战开启 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the company, with a target valuation corresponding to a PE of 12X [1][11]. Core Insights - The company, Aorijin, is positioned as a leading player in the metal packaging industry, with expected profit recovery driven by industry improvements, accelerated overseas expansion, and product innovation [1][11]. - The company’s revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 18.346 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.97%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.076 billion yuan, up 41.40% year-on-year, largely due to the acquisition of COFCO Packaging [1][16]. Summary by Sections Aorijin: Metal Packaging Leader, Profit Improvement Expected - Aorijin has a solid foundation in three-piece can business and has expanded into two-piece can business since 2012 through self-built capacity and acquisitions, including COFCO Packaging in 2025 [1][16]. - The company’s net profit is projected to be 1.16 billion yuan, 1.20 billion yuan, and 1.34 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a recovery in profitability [1][11]. Two-Piece Can: Profitability Needs Repair, Company Actively Seeks Breakthroughs - The domestic beer canning rate is expected to rise to 32% by 2024, with significant room for growth compared to developed countries [2][36]. - The company’s two-piece can production capacity is expected to reach nearly 300 billion cans after the acquisition of COFCO Packaging, enhancing market share and pricing power [3][11]. Three-Piece Can: Healthy Industry Development, Improved Customer Structure - The demand for three-piece cans in China is steadily increasing, with a relatively strong profitability compared to two-piece cans [5][9]. - The company has reduced its reliance on major customers, with the largest customer’s revenue share decreasing from 72% in 2013 to 36% in 2024 [9][11]. New Business: Integrated Industry Chain Layout, Gaining Initiative - Aorijin is expanding into the consumer and health sectors with its own brand products, including sports nutrition drinks and pre-prepared meals, leveraging its metal packaging capabilities [11][16]. - The company’s revenue from metal packaging products is projected to be 23.08 billion yuan, 24.47 billion yuan, and 26.06 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 69%, 6%, and 6% [11][10].

Group 1: Political Developments - Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida won the election, leading to a 5% surge in the Nikkei index, with expectations for proactive fiscal policies[5] - Kishida's victory is attributed to effective campaign strategies, converting personal support into party support, while policy discussions remain limited[10] - Kishida's upcoming visit to the U.S. in March and Trump's anticipated visit to China in April are key focus points, with discussions expected on U.S. investments in Japan and strategic issues regarding China[5] Group 2: International Relations - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to expectations surrounding Trump's visit to China in April, emphasizing the importance of high-level diplomatic engagement[15] - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are set for February 17, with potential military actions considered if talks fail[6] - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs is expected on February 20, which may provide the Trump administration with more leeway in trade policies[6] Group 3: Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,082.07, reflecting a 0.4% increase for the week, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.4%[6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.2%, and the S&P 500 fell by 1.4% during the same period[6] - Brent crude oil prices dropped to $67.73, a 0.5% decline, while COMEX gold prices increased by 1.5% to $5,063.80[6]

Inflation Data - January CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.3% in December[1] - Year-on-year CPI stands at 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.5%[1] - Core CPI month-on-month rose by 0.3%, matching the previous month's increase[1] Energy and Food Prices - Energy prices decreased by 1.5% month-on-month, significantly cooling inflation[1] - Gasoline prices fell by 3.2% month-on-month, while fuel oil dropped by 5.7%[1] - Food prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.7% in December[1] Core Inflation Trends - Core CPI year-on-year is at 2.5%, slightly down from 2.6%[1] - Rent prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, a slowdown from 0.4%[1] - Service prices overall rose by 0.4% month-on-month, up from 0.3%[1] Market Reactions - After the data release, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3.4 basis points to approximately 3.41%[1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 3.6 basis points to around 4.06%[1] - Market expectations indicate a high probability of two rate cuts starting in June 2026[4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting a recommendation for investment based on favorable market conditions and growth potential [4]. Core Insights - GFS reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.83 billion, meeting the upper guidance limit, with a year-over-year growth of 0% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 8% [1]. - The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 29.0%, in line with previous guidance, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.6 percentage points and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.0 percentage points, driven by product mix optimization and improved capacity utilization [1]. - Net profit for Q4 2025 was $310 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 21%, with an EPS of $0.55 [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) was $1,314 per wafer (equivalent to 8 inches), showing a year-over-year decrease of 4% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5% [1]. - Wafer shipments reached 619,000 units (equivalent to 12 inches), with a year-over-year increase of 4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3% [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue was $1.83 billion, achieving the upper guidance limit, with a gross margin of 29.0% and net profit of $310 million [1][16]. - For the full year 2025, total revenue was $6.791 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1% [17]. Business Segments - Smart mobile devices generated $657 million in revenue for Q4 2025, a year-over-year decline of 11% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 13%, accounting for 36% of total revenue [2]. - Automotive electronics revenue was $427 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 3% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 40%, representing 23% of total revenue [2]. - Data center and communication infrastructure revenue grew by 32% year-over-year and 29% quarter-over-quarter, reaching $225 million, accounting for 12% of total revenue [2]. Future Guidance - For Q1 2026, GFS expects revenue of $1.625 billion (±$25 million) and a gross margin of approximately 27% (±1 percentage point) [3]. - The company plans to initiate a $500 million stock repurchase program in Q1 2026 [3]. - The overall pricing environment for 2026 is expected to be better than in 2025, with some industry participants beginning to raise prices [3]. Capacity and Technology Development - GFS is expanding its capacity in Dresden, Germany, with plans to exceed 1 million wafers per year by the end of 2028 [3][22]. - The company is investing $16 billion in expanding its facilities in New York and Vermont to enhance advanced packaging capabilities [3]. - GFS aims to achieve annualized revenue of $1 billion from its silicon photonics business by the end of 2028 [3].

Core Viewpoints - The mechanical industry is expected to embrace "technology + going global" as its dual main lines in 2026, focusing on high elasticity growth opportunities and performance certainty from overseas expansion [13][9][7] 2025 Review Market Performance - In 2025, the mechanical sector achieved a 41% increase, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 18%, ranking fifth among A-share sub-industries [6][16] - The sub-sectors that performed well included PCB equipment (+252%), 3C equipment (+129%), controllable nuclear fusion (+119%), data centers (+112%), and humanoid robots (+85%) [20][6] Demand Side - Domestic demand showed signs of bottoming out, with a marginal improvement towards the end of 2025, while external demand began to recover positively [31][35] - The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 rebounded to 50.1, indicating a return to expansion territory, driven by large enterprises and high-tech manufacturing [32][35] Cost Side - The cost structure showed a continuous improvement trend, with PPI declining by 2.6% year-on-year in 2025, reflecting insufficient industrial demand [31][33] 2026 Outlook Macro Perspective - The macro narrative for the next five years is centered around "AI commercialization + global re-industrialization," with expectations of a cyclical recovery driven by proactive fiscal policies [6][7] Mid-level Perspective - Technology - The technology sector is expected to see explosive growth, with key areas including data centers, PCB equipment, semiconductor equipment, humanoid robots, and commercial aerospace [7][9] Mid-level Perspective - Going Global - The overseas production capacity is anticipated to enter a release phase in 2026, with significant revenue and profit growth expected for companies in the machinery and equipment sectors [7][8] Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on high-certainty directions with strong industry trends and competitive advantages, prioritizing stock selection based on industry trends, competitive positioning, and valuation [7][8] - Long-term investments should consider companies with platform capabilities that offer sustainable value [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the 3D printing industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - The global consumer-grade 3D printing industry is entering a phase of accelerated adoption, with rapid market growth anticipated. The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities within the industry chain, particularly companies related to the leading player, Tuozhu [1]. - The demand for consumer-grade 3D printing is expected to grow rapidly, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and printing performance. The market size is projected to reach USD 4.1 billion in 2024 and grow to USD 16.9 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 26.6% [6]. - The supply side shows that the global 3D printer market share is increasingly concentrated among leading Chinese companies, with Tuozhu expected to capture approximately 29% of the market share in 2024 [6]. Industry Overview - The 3D printing industry encompasses various segments, including upstream raw materials, hardware, and auxiliary software, as well as downstream applications in aerospace, automotive, healthcare, rail transportation, cultural creativity, and construction [6]. - The report highlights key players in the industry, including: - **Sikan Technology**: A leading domestic 3D scanner company that has signed a framework agreement with Tuozhu to jointly design and develop consumer-grade 3D scanners [6]. - **Jinchengzi**: A leader in laser processing control systems, focusing on self-developed industrial software and control systems, and a major provider of automation control components for 3D printing equipment [6]. - **Jieput**: Provides continuous fiber lasers and related optical modules to midstream manufacturers, enhancing the speed and precision of 3D printing [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry based on expected performance relative to the market benchmark [5]. Core Insights - Recent valuation recovery in real estate stocks reflects a combination of oversold conditions relative to the CSI 300 index, changes in fundamental expectations, and policy anticipations [1][3]. - The upward potential for real estate stock prices requires further support from either fundamental performance or policy implementation, with key drivers including better-than-expected transaction volumes and significant policy announcements [12][14]. - The market is currently divided between investors with optimistic views on fundamentals and those speculating on policy changes, which may lead to conflicting strategies [10]. Summary by Sections Recent Valuation Recovery - The recent increase in real estate stock prices is attributed to a recovery from oversold conditions and shifts in market sentiment regarding fundamentals and policies [1]. - Data from January 1 to February 5 shows a year-on-year decline in new home transactions by 6% and an increase in second-hand home transactions by 31%, although adjusted lunar year comparisons indicate a more significant decline [3]. Conditions for Further Price Increases - The gap between the real estate index and the CSI 300 has narrowed significantly, suggesting that without further catalysts, the potential for excess returns in the real estate sector may diminish [12]. - Future price increases will depend on exceeding expectations in fundamental performance, such as increased transaction volumes and favorable policy developments [14]. Policy Directions and Drivers - Key areas of policy focus include changes in inventory levels, loan continuation methods post "Financial 16," and the outcomes of specific corporate financing events [15]. - Potential policy measures may involve lowering mortgage rates and implementing inventory reduction strategies to stabilize housing prices [16][18]. Market Dynamics and Stock Selection - The current market trend favors companies with higher sales growth and land acquisition rates, indicating a preference for "winning" companies based on market momentum [22]. - If supportive policies are enacted, the focus may shift from "winning" companies to those with attractive valuations, while also considering companies with strong operational momentum [24]. - Specific companies to watch include those with stable performance and high dividend yields, as well as those benefiting from improvements in the housing market [25].