Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Amazon (AMZN.O) [2][4] Core Insights - Amazon's Q4 2025 revenue reached $213.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of 14%, with operating profit at $25 billion, up 18% year-over-year, and net profit at $21.2 billion, a 6% increase year-over-year, which aligns with expectations [1][5] - AWS revenue was $35.6 billion, showing a year-over-year growth of 24%, exceeding consensus expectations [1] - For 2026, Amazon's capital expenditure guidance is projected at approximately $200 billion, significantly higher than market expectations, indicating a focus on balancing demand and capacity [1][5] - Long-term prospects remain strong due to improvements in e-commerce fulfillment efficiency, competitive pricing, and accelerated growth in cloud services, alongside increased investments in AI [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024 to 2028 are as follows: $637.96 billion (2024), $716.92 billion (2025), $810.80 billion (2026E), $908.19 billion (2027E), and $1,014.42 billion (2028E), with year-over-year growth rates of 11%, 12.4%, 13.1%, 12%, and 11.7% respectively [3][8] - Operating profit is expected to grow from $68.59 billion in 2024 to $145.04 billion in 2028, with significant growth rates, particularly in 2026 at 24.1% [3][9] - Net profit projections are $59.25 billion (2024), $77.67 billion (2025), $82.30 billion (2026E), $99.36 billion (2027E), and $118.74 billion (2028E), with a notable growth rate of 31.1% in 2025 [3][8] Stock Performance - The current stock price is $208.72, with a market capitalization of $228 billion [4] - The stock has shown absolute performance of 9.1% over the past month, 17.6% over six months, and 20.0% over the past year [5]

Group 1 - The report maintains a strong positive outlook on the Hang Seng Technology Index, citing that recent declines are primarily due to liquidity shocks rather than fundamental changes in the market [2][4] - The report emphasizes that the peak of overseas liquidity shocks has passed, and strategies such as "buy the dip" are expected to be effective moving forward [5][6] - The relative valuation of Hong Kong technology stocks is at a historical low compared to A-share technology stocks, indicating potential for a rebound [4][27] Group 2 - Domestic liquidity issues caused by public funds over-allocating to Hong Kong stocks have eased, reducing selling pressure on the market [23][24] - The report highlights that the earnings expectations for the Hang Seng Index have been gently revised upwards, contributing to its resilience compared to the Hang Seng Technology Index, which has seen a stabilization in earnings expectations [38][39] - The report notes that the technology sector is experiencing significant advancements, with major companies like Tencent and Alibaba actively promoting AI models and applications [40][41] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of stricter IPO quality controls by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, which is expected to improve market sentiment [29][30] - It is noted that the current absolute valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index is low, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.13, suggesting limited downside potential for leading tech stocks [27][28] - The report indicates that the fundamentals of the Hong Kong market remain solid, with earnings expectations stabilizing, which is crucial for investor confidence [38][39]

Macro Insights - The average weekly working hours for corporate employees decreased to 48.43 hours, lower than in 2023 and 2024, but still above pre-pandemic levels[2] - The reduction in working hours has led to an increase in leisure time, with over 54.5 hours of leisure time available weekly, which is expected to boost consumer spending[2] Strategy Insights - The nomination of Waller as Fed Chair has raised hawkish monetary policy expectations, causing the dollar index to rebound and impacting emerging markets and commodities negatively[4] - Future market stability may depend on the Fed's interest rate decisions and the performance of various asset classes, with a focus on sectors benefiting from the 14th Five-Year Plan[4] Fixed Income Insights - The bond market sentiment index rose to 116.1, indicating a slight recovery in market sentiment[5] - The average duration for funds increased to 1.39 years, while the duration for insurance decreased to 7.56 years, reflecting varying risk appetites across sectors[7] Banking Insights - New regulations on digital currencies were introduced to mitigate risks associated with virtual currencies, emphasizing the illegal status of such currencies compared to legal tender[9] - The new regulations also include management requirements for Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization, aiming to prevent speculative activities in the market[10]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2026 年 02 月 09 日 2025 年稳健收官，2026 年开门红值得期待 保险行业 2025 年 12 月保费收入点评 总量研究/非银行金融 近日，国家金融监督管理总局公布 2025 年 1-12 月保险业经营情况，人身险公 司全年保费增速接近两位数，2026 年开门红预计表现强劲；财产险公司全年 保费中低速增长，非车险"报行合一"有望推动盈利持续改善。 ❑ 风险提示：产品吸引力下降；资本市场波动；监管收紧；经济增长不及预期。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 90 | 1.7 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 6622.4 | 5.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 6453.3 | 6.4 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -2.9 1.8 17.9 相对表现 0.2 -11.1 -3.0 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Feb/25 May/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 (%) 非银行金融 沪深300 相关报告 1、《非银金融 25Q4 ...

证券研究报告|策略定期报告 2026 年 2 月 9 日 AI 应用加速产业渗透，机器人商业化时间节点前移 ——全球产业趋势跟踪周报（0209） 本周产业趋势主要集中在 AI 应用和人形机器人。AI 应用方面，腾讯元宝于 2 月 1日正式启动总额 10亿元的春节现金红包活动，单个红包最高金额达 1万元。 自活动启动以来，元宝 AI 生图功能日均调用增长 30 倍，新用户平均每天跟元 宝的互动问答超过 8 轮，用户单日使用元宝时长增长超 80%。人形机器人方面， 马斯克表示将在今年一季度推出 Optimus 第三代版本，并提及量产规划与产线 调整；Figure AI 发布新一代人形机器人 Helix 02，行为拟人性大幅上升；宇树 宣布开源 UnifoLM-VLA-0；银河通用发布首款工业级重载机器人 Galbot S1； 机器人产业投融资市场活跃度上升，多家车企确认切入人形机器人。 【主题与产业趋势】春节营销点燃竞争，AI 应用加速产业渗透。腾讯元宝于 2 月 1 日正式启动总额 10 亿元的春节现金红包活动，用户通过更新 App 至 2.55.0 版本即可参与抽奖，单个红包最高金额达 1 万元。腾讯董事会主 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to break through in multiple dimensions, including energy storage, AIDC liquid cooling, and overseas expansion, with a current PE valuation of 11 times corresponding to a 15% compound growth target for equity incentives [1]. - The governance improvements and strategic alignment with Gree Electric are expected to optimize resource allocation and enhance competitiveness [6][12]. - The company is actively expanding its new business lines, particularly in energy storage management, nuclear power air conditioning, and automotive thermal management, which are anticipated to drive future growth [30][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Governance Improvements - Gree Electric has committed to resolving competition issues within five years, enhancing the company's financial situation and operational efficiency [12][20]. - The financial burden has been alleviated significantly since Gree's acquisition, with a notable increase in sales to Gree, reaching 2.5 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 20% of the company's revenue [12][20]. - The company has implemented a normalized stock incentive plan, with ambitious performance targets reflecting strong confidence in future growth [24][25]. 2. New Business Development - The energy storage management sector is rapidly growing, with the company positioning itself as a key supplier in this field, leveraging its existing industrial air conditioning technology [30][35]. - The company is a leader in nuclear power air conditioning, with products already deployed in major nuclear projects, benefiting from the industry's transition from fission to fusion technology [46][51]. - The automotive thermal management business is expanding, with expected revenue growth of over 50% year-on-year, supported by a strong order backlog exceeding 15 billion yuan [30][46]. 3. Household Appliance Components - The company maintains a robust market position in household appliance components, with a 26% global market share, ranking second in the industry [30]. - The profitability of the main business is expected to improve further due to increasing overseas revenue and market share in commercial refrigeration components [30]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 738 million yuan, 1.045 billion yuan, and 1.076 billion yuan for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 15% anticipated [7][30]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 11 times for 2026, reinforcing the strong buy recommendation [1][6].

Group 1: Development Goals and Framework - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has set the annual development goals centered on "two guarantees and two strives" for 2026, marking a shift towards quality and efficiency in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) [4] - The total assets of central enterprises have surpassed 95 trillion yuan, with R&D investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan for four consecutive years, indicating a focus on quality-driven growth [8] - The framework aims to guide state capital towards strategic security, public welfare, and emerging industries, providing a clear action plan for reform and development [4] Group 2: Industry Integration and Collaboration - In 2025, the restructuring of central enterprises will follow a dual-track approach, focusing on strategic formation of new central enterprises and multi-field professional integration [13] - The establishment of new central enterprises, such as China Yajiang Group and China Chang'an Automobile Group, aims to serve national macro strategies and enhance industry collaboration [14] - A total of 17 units signed agreements in key areas like artificial intelligence and new materials, creating a multi-party collaborative model involving central enterprises, private enterprises, and local governments [16] Group 3: Capital Investment and Fund Management - The total scale of the China Chengtong fund system reached 710 billion yuan, with 97.99% allocated to strategic emerging industries, demonstrating a strong focus on high-tech sectors [18] - The National Investment Group manages 61 funds with a total scale of 345.1 billion yuan, having invested in 1,249 projects and facilitated 293 companies going public [20] - The investment strategy emphasizes long-term support for innovative enterprises, with over two-thirds of funds directed towards private enterprises [20] Group 4: Resource Integration and Security - Central enterprises are undergoing intensive integration in key mineral sectors, such as iron ore and rare earths, to enhance resource control and pricing power [24] - The integration aims to create a closed-loop industry chain, improving domestic supply security and reducing reliance on imports [25] - This strategic move is seen as a vital step in ensuring national resource security and enhancing the global influence of China's mineral resources [24]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 09 日 茅台景气领先，大众品继续推荐顺周期 食品饮料行业周报（2.8） 消费品/食品饮料 本周我们继续调研江苏等地渠道，综合两周调研结果来看，行业整体动销双位 数下滑符合预期，茅台表现延续强势，禁酒令后部分需求回补、非标缺货带来 的需求转移、i 茅台促进大众需求转化带动飞天量增超预期。部分经销商自愿 申报 3 月首批飞天配额售罄，惠群也暂停 3 月前的销售，这也印证了公司渠道 的"全面开花"，而并非仅 i 茅台火爆，批价近期冲高至 1700 元。五粮液动 销延续分化，江苏地区大商走货有减少、专卖店反馈增长。汾酒青 20 基本稳 定，动销小个位数下滑。今世缘好于大盘，其他品牌仍有压力。大众品板块首 推餐饮链修复（调味品、啤酒板块），一方面服务消费等潜在的政策催化、另 一方面我们看好假期消费数据超预期。 ❑ 核心公司跟踪：茅台景气领先，巴比关注 26 年新店型拓展。 江苏白酒大商：预计今年春节动销表现弱于去年，同比下滑幅度约在 10%-15%。茅台即将发 3 月货，1-2 月配额约占全年的 40%、1-3 月配额 约占全年的 40%-45%，目前非标产品暂 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2026 年 2 月 8 日 春节海外：机会更多，还是风险更大？ ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面，春节错位，预计 1 月 CPI 同比 0.2%；1 月有色、能化接连上涨， 预计 PPI 环比增长 0.3%，对应 PPI 同比-1.2%。 海外方面，1）沃什提名美联储主席恐陷入程序僵局。2）高市或即将摆脱联合 执政的掣肘，其反对过早加息、主张弱日元，实则利好全球流动性。 资产方面，1）近期特朗普强调提名沃什因其支持降息，进而，美股进一步重 挫风险有限。预计中选前，全球不太会出现因日本套息交易反转及美联储政策 收紧的流动性冲击，3-9 月地方中选密集期，美股大概率中枢上移。2）国内科 技等方向需观察美股走势，风险有限，但机会或在 Q2；PPI 或于 Q2 提前转 正，叠加"十五五"碳减排助力，通胀方向资产均将受益，目前仍是"交易科 技、重视通胀、关注地产消费"思路。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《PMI 淡季回落———2026 年 1 月 PMI 点评》2026-02-01 2、《如何看 2025 年财政数据 与 2026 年一季度财政节奏？》 2026-01-31 3 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 最新一周二手房网签面积较去年农历同期下降 12% ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 2 月 5 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等；备注：1 月以来新房和二手房网签面积农历（十 一月十三至腊月十八）同比分别为-53%/-18%，最新一周新房和二手房网签面积农历（腊 月初五至十八）同比降幅分别较上周+4 PCT/-2 PCT 至-22%/-12%。 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 2 月 5 日） | 新房（1 | | 月 | 1 日-2 月 | 5 日） | 二手房（1 | | 月 | 1 日-2 月 | 5 日） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | | 同比 | 较 | 12 月 | 城市能级 | | 同比 | 较 | 12 月 | | | 样本城市 | | -6% | -收窄 | +17 PCT | 样本城市 | | ...