Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the storage industry, suggesting that the overall performance of companies in the supply chain will be optimistic due to a tight supply situation expected to continue into 2027 [1]. Core Insights - The storage industry is projected to experience a significant increase in demand driven by AI applications, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% for global storage bits, particularly in data centers transitioning to a ZB-level expansion cycle [15][18]. - The supply side is characterized by limited new capacity in 2026, with a forecasted growth of about 20% in bit shipments for both DRAM and NAND, leading to a sustained supply-demand mismatch [49][56]. - The report highlights a notable increase in inventory levels among downstream manufacturers, with strategic stockpiling to address anticipated demand in 2026 [9][60]. - Price trends indicate a significant rise in contract prices for DRAM and NAND, with expectations of a 90-95% and 55-60% increase respectively in Q1 2026, driven by strong server demand [9][30]. Demand Side Summary - The demand for storage is expected to grow exponentially due to AI inference, with NAND becoming increasingly critical in data centers [10][15]. - The global storage market size is anticipated to reach nearly $300 billion in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39% [15][19]. - Data center storage capacity is projected to shift from EB to ZB levels, with significant contributions from AI-driven applications [18][22]. Supply Side Summary - Capital expenditures from major manufacturers are set to increase significantly in 2026, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron expected to invest $20 billion, $20.5 billion, and $13.5 billion respectively [49][56]. - Despite increased capital spending, effective capacity release is expected to be delayed until 2027, maintaining a seller's market [49][56]. - The report notes that the shipment growth for DRAM and NAND is expected to be around 20%, with server applications accounting for over 45% of shipments [50][51]. Inventory Side Summary - The report indicates a significant divergence in inventory levels across the supply chain, with tight inventory conditions expected to persist throughout 2026 [9][60]. - Downstream manufacturers, particularly in mainland China, are actively increasing their inventory levels to prepare for the anticipated supply-demand gap in 2026 [9][60]. Price Side Summary - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in storage prices, with significant increases in contract prices expected due to ongoing supply constraints and strong demand from AI applications [9][30]. - The overall price index for storage products has shown a rapid increase since the second half of 2025, with expectations of further price hikes across all categories [9][30]. Sales Side Summary - The report forecasts a substantial increase in revenue and profit for major manufacturers in the storage industry, driven by the ongoing demand surge and strategic inventory management [9][60]. - The overall industry revenue for DRAM and Flash is projected to reach $551.6 billion in 2026, reflecting a 134% year-on-year increase [9][60].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2026 年 2 月 5 日 技术面精选成长预期策略表现持续亮眼 风险提示：本报告结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，在政策、市场环境发 生变化时模型存在失效的风险；本报告所提及个股仅表示与相关主题有一定关联 性，不构成任何投资建议。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 刘凯 S1090524120001 liukai11@cmschina.com.cn 杨航 S1090523010004 yanghang4@cmschina.com.cn 专题报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 我们在报告《如何找到下一个高增长机会》（2025/11/15）中探讨了公司当前成 长性与未来成长性的关系，通过基本面的筛选构建了预期未来有望持续高增长的 组合；再进一步通过对量价关系的刻画，提升该组合的股价表现，构建了招商技 术面精选成长预期。 ❑ 2012 年以来技术面精选成长预期组合表现非常亮眼，回测区间年化收益超过 40%，夏普比率（1.47）与卡玛比率（1.09）均超过 1。相比中证 500 指 数，组合超额年化收益高达 32%，夏普比率高达 2.8 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 02 月 05 日 完美世界（002624.SZ） 25 年全年扭亏为盈，游戏业务重回增长轨道 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 公司发布 2025 年年度业绩预告：预计 2025 年度实现归母净利润 7.2-7.6 亿元， 同比扭亏为盈（2024 年亏损 12.88 亿元）；预计实现归母扣非净利润 5.6-6.0 亿元，同比扭亏为盈（2024 年亏损 13.13 亿元）。 单季度看，2025 年第四季度归母净利润预计为 0.54-0.94 亿元，同比扭亏为盈 （2024 年 Q4 亏损 9.0 亿元）；第四季度预计实现归母扣非净利润 0.8-1.2 亿 元，同比扭亏为盈（2024 年 Q4 亏损 8.6 亿元）。报告期内非经常性损益预计 约 1.6 亿元，主要系 Q1 出售乘风工作室产生的处置收益及政府补助。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：17.51 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1940 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 1828 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 34.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 32.0 | ...

信贷投放结构性凸显 1 月金融数据预测 总量研究/银行 金融数据预测表 | 科目 | 2025 年 12 月 | 2026 年 1 | 月（预测） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 社融新增（亿） | 22075 | 70000 | | | 社融增速 | 8.3% | 8.2% | | | 信贷新增（亿） | 9100 | 48000 | | | 信贷增速 | 6.4% | 6.1% | | | M2 增速 | 8.5% | 8.5% | | 资料来源：WIND，招商证券 √ 一月，预计人民币贷款新增 4.8 万亿，贷款增速约 6.1% 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 05 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 10243.2 | 9.1 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 9635.5 | 9.5 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -3.6 -6.5 6.2 相对表现 -4.2 -21.4 -15.9 资料来源：公司数据、招 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2026 年 02 月 04 日 1 月制造业 PMI 环比下降，煤炭价格上涨 ——行业景气观察（0204） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在消费服务和信息技术领域。上游资源品中，煤炭、 石油价格上涨；中游制造领域，新能源产业链价格多数下跌，1 月重卡销量三个 月滚动同比增幅收窄。信息技术中，DDR4 价格边际下行，12 月北美 PCB 订单 量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，鸡肉价格、飞天茅台批价上行。春 节临近生产季节性放缓，年末冲刺透支部分需求，拖累 1 月制造业 PMI 环比下 行。推荐景气较高或有改善的煤炭、石油石化、中药、白酒、电力、半导体等。 ❑【本周关注】春节临近生产季节性放缓，去年年末冲刺透支了部分需求，拖累 1 月 制造业 PMI 环比下行，寒潮拖累施工进度，建筑业景气明显下滑，服务业也有放 缓。结构上特征主要有：1）春节临近生产季节性放缓，叠加原材料价格上涨，采 购量明显下滑，或因去年年末冲刺影响，需求偏弱，生产经营预期下行，库存升至 同期较高水平；2）地缘政治风险推升油价和贵金属价格，抬高成本，叠加反内卷 背景下部分行业供给受限，购进价格和出厂价格指数均 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2026 年 02 月 04 日 电源管理芯片营收同环比双增，2026 年稼动率指引回升 VIS 25Q4 跟踪报告 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件： 世界先进（VIS，5347.TW）于 2 月 3 日发布 25Q4 季报，营收 125.94 亿新台 币，同比+9.0%/环比+2.0%；毛利率 27.5%，符合此前指引，同比-1.2pcts/环 比+0.7pct；归母净利润 17.5 亿新台币，同比-5.4%/环比+2.6%，净利率 13.2%， 同比-2.8pcts/环比-0.4pct，EPS 为 0.93 新台币。晶圆总出货量为 62.6 万片， ASP 为 624 美元/片（折合八英寸），环比+5%。综合财报及交流会议信息，总 结要点如下： 评论： 1、25Q4 营收同环比双增，ASP 环比显著改善。 1）业绩情况：25Q4 公司营收 125.94 亿新台币，同比+9.0%/环比+2.0%，主要 得益于 ASP 增长及有利的汇率环境，部分营收被晶圆出货量下滑抵消；毛利率 27.5%，符合此前指引，同比-1.2pcts/环比+0.7pct；归母净利润 17.48 亿新台 币 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the environmental and public utility sector [2] Core Insights - The environmental and public utility sectors experienced declines, with the environmental index down 2.78% and the public utility index down 1.66%, indicating a larger drop compared to the overall market [6] - The report highlights the establishment of a reliable capacity compensation mechanism for power generation, which aims to ensure fair compensation based on reliable capacity without differentiating between unit types [10] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the power sector, particularly recommending undervalued companies such as Anhui Energy and Huaneng International, while also highlighting long-term prospects for China Resources Power and other firms [6] Summary by Sections Key Event Interpretations - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the capacity price mechanism, proposing a reliable capacity compensation mechanism based on reliable capacity as a standard [10] - The State Administration of Energy Management encourages the exploration of carbon asset trading and virtual power plants, promoting energy-saving renovations in public institutions [14] Weekly Market Review - Both the environmental and public utility sectors saw declines, with the environmental sector up 5.94% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices [15] - The report notes specific stock performances within the environmental and power sectors, highlighting both top gainers and losers [23][26][27] Key Industry Data Tracking - As of January 30, 2026, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal remained stable at 695 CNY/ton, while the price of Indonesian thermal coal at Guangzhou Port was 515 CNY/ton [29] - The report tracks water levels and storage in key reservoirs, noting changes in inflow and outflow rates [31] - LNG prices increased, with the import price at 12.10 CNY/million BTU and domestic ex-factory price at 4045 CNY/ton [42] Industry Key Events - The report outlines significant events in the power market, including various regulatory updates and proposals for long-term market implementation [56][58] - It also discusses developments in the dual-carbon market, emphasizing the promotion of carbon neutrality in large-scale events and the management of fixed asset investment projects [60] Upcoming Events Reminder - The report lists important upcoming announcements from companies in the environmental and power sectors, including stock circulation and equity incentive plans [61]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 02 月 04 日 生益电子（688183.SH） Q4 环降源于下游大客户拉货放缓，静待 Q2 新架构产品拉货 TMT 及中小盘/电子 公司公告 25 年业绩预增：归母净利 14.3-15.1 亿，同比+331.0%～355.9%； 扣非归母净利 14.3-15.1 亿，同比+334.8%～360.9%。结合公司近况，我们点 评如下： ❑ 风险提示：新增产能释放不及预期；下游需求低于预期；行业竞争加剧；贸 易摩擦加剧。 财务数据与估值 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 增持（维持） 当前股价：86.58 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 832 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 832 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 72.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 72.0 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 6.2 | | ROE（TTM） | 24.4 | | 资产负债率 | 54.0% | | 主要股东 | 广东生益科技股份有限公司 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 62.93% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -10 6 ...

事件：公司公告 25 年业绩预增：归母净利 31.5-33.4 亿同比+68.0%～78.0%， 扣非归母净利 29.9-31.7 亿同比+72.0%～82.0%。结合行业和公司近况，我们 点评如下： ❑ 风险提示：同行竞争加剧、算力客户开拓及订单导入不及预期，产能扩张不 及预期。 财务数据与估值 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 02 月 04 日 深南电路（002916.SZ） Q4 环降源于新产能爬坡、费用增加，静待 H1 业绩环比高增 TMT 及中小盘/电子 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 13526 | 17907 | 23817 | 32153 | 43406 | | 同比增长 | -3% | 32% | 33% | 35% | 35% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1398 | 2028 | 3530 | 6114 | 8921 | | 同比增长 | -19% | 45% | 74% | 73% | 46% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with a forecasted range of 3.25 to 3.45 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 87% to 98% [1] - The growth is driven by the demand for AI-related products and the structural upgrade in high-speed materials [6] - The company is positioned well in the CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) industry, with expectations of continued price increases and strong demand from major clients [6] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 16.59 billion yuan in 2023 to 56.29 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 36% [1][13] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 1.27 billion yuan in 2023 to 9.50 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1][13] - The company's net profit is forecasted to rise from 1.16 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.96 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a robust growth outlook [1][13] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 137.4 in 2023 to 20.1 in 2027, suggesting improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [14] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its high-performance CCL production capacity, with a planned investment of 4.5 billion yuan [6] - The demand for AI PCBs (Printed Circuit Boards) is expected to continue driving growth, with the company gaining significant market share in high-end products [6] - The report highlights the company's proactive market strategies to address rising raw material costs and enhance profitability [6]