银行资负跟踪 20251207 Q4 银行浮盈兑现估算和 EVE 指标影响看法 总量研究/银行 证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 11363.4 | 10.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 10692.5 | 11.2 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -2.0 -1.0 15.2 相对表现 -1.1 -19.2 -1.7 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Dec/24 Apr/25 Jul/25 Nov/25 (%) 银行 沪深300 相关报告 1、《1500 亿以下发债银行资负情况 — 银 行 资 负 跟 踪 20251130 》 2025-11-30 2、《央行利率比价与综合收益比价 的异同—银行资负跟踪 20251123》 2025-11-23 3、《资本和风险分类新规过渡期结 束压力测算 — 银 行 研 思 录 26 》 2025-11-18 王先爽 S1090 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观预测报告 2025 年 12 月 6 日 固定资产投资增速或仍偏弱 —2025 年 11 月宏观经济预测报告 频率：每月 点评报告 相关报告 1、《服务消费淡季回调明显— —11 月 PMI 数据点评》2025- 12-6 | 张静静 | S1090522050003 | | --- | --- | | zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn | | | 张岸天 | S1090522070002 | | zhangantian@cmschina.com.cn | | | 罗 丹 | S1090524070004 | | luodan7@cmschina.com.cn | | | 张玉书 | 研究助理 | | zhangyushu@cmschina.com.cn | | | 赵兴举 | 研究助理 | zhaoxingju@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 表 1：宏观经济指标实际值、预测值与未来方向 | 分类 | 预测指标 | 10 月实际 | 11 月预测 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 制造业 PMI（%） | ...

证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2025 年 12 月 05 日 影石创新（688775.SH） 稀缺的智能影像龙头品牌，从手持设备向无人机进军 TMT 及中小盘/电子 影石创新是全景相机龙头，逐步向运动相机、穿戴相机、云台等智能影像设备 延拓，同时从全景玩法切入无人机市场重塑飞行体验，软件业务亦开始布局， 对应市场从几十亿的全景相机市场迈向各几百亿的运动相机和无人机市场。本 篇报告围绕市场关心的行业空间、竞争格局等问题展开分析，我们看好影石在 智能影像设备领域的核心卡位、产品创新、技术引领和长线空间，首次给予"增 持"评级，考虑到智能影像品牌的稀缺性和业务成长性，建议积极关注。 增持（首次） 当前股价：279.36 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 401 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 31 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 112.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 8.5 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 14.3 | | ROE（TTM） | 16.5 | | 资产负债率 | 37.9% | | 北京岚锋创视网络科技有限 主要股东 | | | | 公司 | | 主要 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 05 日 10 月业务量增速放缓，单票价格同比持续修复 快递行业 2025 年 10 月数据跟踪 周期/交通运输 本月关注：关注旺季价格表现和数据验证情况及 26 年反内卷政策持续性。 ❑ 快递行业核心数据：1）业务量同比增速放缓，2025 年 10 月，全国快递业务 量完成 176.0 亿件，同比增长 7.9%，同比增幅较上月下降 4.9pct；2）单票价格 同比跌幅收窄，单票收入为 7.48 元，同比下降 3.0%，同比降幅较上月收窄 1.9pct， 环比下降 0.9%；3）收入，快递业务收入完成 1316.7 亿元，同比增长 4.7%，同 比增幅较上月下降 2.5pct。 ❑ 消费数据：1-10 月社零总额累计实现 41.2 万亿元，同比增长 4.3%，其中 10 月社零总额实现 4.6 万亿元，同比增长 2.9%；1-10 月实物商品网上零售额累计 实现 10.4 万亿元，同比增长 6.3%，根据推算，其中 10 月实物商品网上零售额 实现 1.25 万亿元，同比增长 4.9%；对应 1-10 月累计电商渗透率达 25.2%，同比 下降 0.7p ...

国庆中秋长航线需求旺盛，国际线复苏强劲 航空行业 2025 年 10 月数据跟踪 周期/交通运输 本月关注：10 月行业整体需求增速回升，客座率同比显著提升，国庆中秋双节 假期长航线需求旺盛，国际航线复苏强劲。 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 05 日 ❑ 风险提示：宏观经济下行、人民币大幅贬值、油价大幅上涨、重大自然灾害 等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 128 | 2.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3162.2 | 3.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2949.3 | 3.1 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -2.8 5.6 5.4 相对表现 -1.2 -11.9 -10.3 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Dec/24 Apr/25 Jul/25 Nov/25 (%) 交通运输 沪深300 相关报告 1、《招商交通运输行业周报—油运 旺季景气维持，民航需求增长持续超 预期》2025-11-16 2、《交运行业 2025 年三季报总结— 关 ...

Market Outlook - The report emphasizes a preference for large-cap stocks in December, suggesting a potential shift from growth to value investing as the market focuses on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and significant domestic meetings at year-end [1][11] - Historical data indicates that from 2015 to 2024, large-cap stocks have shown a higher probability of outperforming small-cap stocks in December, with a 70% success rate for large-cap over small-cap [12][14] Liquidity and Capital Supply - The report anticipates stable net inflows of incremental capital in December, with foreign capital activity expected to increase [3][20] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a supportive monetary policy stance, which is likely to maintain a reasonable liquidity level in the market [20][21] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as banking, textiles, and petrochemicals are expected to perform well, while sectors that previously saw significant gains, like technology and automotive, may underperform [2][3] - The report highlights that sectors related to AI and technology are likely to attract new capital due to the issuance of several technology-focused funds in December [11][35] Investment Recommendations - Recommended indices for December include the CSI 300, STAR Market 50, low-volatility dividend indices, and technology indices related to Hong Kong stocks [12][11] - The report suggests that the performance of the CSI 300 and dividend indices is likely to be stronger in the latter half of December, coinciding with the earnings forecast period for listed companies [17][18]

Group 1: Housing Market Trends - The willingness of residents to purchase homes has decreased, leading to a significant decline in the correlation between housing prices and overall price levels[1] - The average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities has dropped by over 30% year-on-year since Q4[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index continues to decline but is still 48.63% higher than the level at the beginning of 2015, with first-tier cities seeing an increase of 85.16%[1] Group 2: Price Movements - New home prices fell by 0.5% month-on-month in October, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year[1] - Second-hand home prices also saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.7%, with a similar expansion in the decline[1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) have remained at low levels, indicating a decoupling from housing prices since 2022[1] Group 3: Economic Implications - The weakening housing market has led to a decrease in consumer spending, as falling home prices do not affect income expectations for non-homeowners[1] - Financial asset price increases have partially offset the negative impact of declining housing prices on the wealth of homeowners[1] - Transfer income growth has alleviated the drag on resident income growth caused by falling housing prices, with transfer income increasing by 4.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year[1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The data suggests that the influence of housing prices on inflation may be limited in the coming year, as the correlation between price levels and housing prices continues to decline[1] - Risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global economic downturns[1]

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 3 日 11 月制造业 PMI 环比上行，化工品价格多数上涨 ——行业景气观察（1203） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在资源品、消费服务和信息技术领域。上游资源品中， 工业金属、贵金属价格普遍上涨；中游制造领域，新能源产业链价格多数上涨， 11 月重卡销量三个月滚动同比增幅收窄。信息技术中，存储器价格持续上涨，10 月北美 PCB 出货量与订单量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，票房收 入上行，中药材价格上涨。10 月制造业 PMI 改善，建筑业环比上行，服务业自 24 年以来首次进入收缩区间。推荐景气较高或有改善的有色、钢铁、化工、电 池、中药、影视、半导体等。 定期报告 相关报告 《金属价格多数上涨，存储器、新 能源材料价格持续强势（1126）》 《10 月社零同比增幅收窄，新能 源产业链价格多数上涨（1119）》 《10 月 PPI 降幅持续收窄，新能 源产业链价格普遍上涨（1112）》 《9 月北美 PCB 出货量同比增幅 扩大，锂原材料价格上涨（1105）》 《三季报披露近六成，资源品价 格多数上涨——行业景气观察 （1029）》 《9 月社 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of consumer sectors, highlighting various sub-sectors such as food and beverage, textiles, home appliances, retail, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture, each with specific growth opportunities and market dynamics [5][7][13][16][21]. Summary by Relevant Sections Food and Beverage - Moutai is focusing on high-quality development despite industry pressures, with a positive outlook for structural growth in the food sector [5]. - Companies like Ximai Foods are expanding their product lines and channels, with a strong growth forecast for Q4 [6]. Textiles - The U.S. apparel market is showing growth, with retail sales increasing by 5% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, while wholesale sales have declined [7]. - Low inventory levels in the U.S. suggest a potential inventory replenishment phase starting soon [8]. Home Appliances - The report highlights key catalysts for companies like XGIMI, including supply-side improvements and new product launches expected to drive significant revenue growth [13][14]. Retail - The retail sector is experiencing improvements in same-store sales and profitability, with major chains expanding their store counts significantly [15]. Pharmaceuticals - The small nucleic acid industry is poised for breakthroughs, with a focus on innovative delivery platforms and competitive advantages for Chinese companies [16][17]. Agriculture - The report notes accelerated capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, with a recommendation for quality breeding stocks amid favorable price expectations [21]. - The planting sector is expected to benefit from intensified policy support for food security [21]. Commercial Services - The hospitality sector is seeing a recovery in demand, with improved revenue per available room (RevPAR) and recommendations for leading hotel brands [18].

Core Insights - Google TPU is challenging Nvidia's dominance in the AI chip market, with expectations of sales exceeding one million units following the release of Gemini 3, which showcases significant advancements in performance and capabilities [3][15][21] - The Chinese commercial aerospace industry is accelerating its development, with the National Space Administration's action plan aiming for high-quality growth and integration into the national aerospace development framework by 2027 [3][38][39] Industry Trends Google TPU vs Nvidia - The release of Gemini 3 marks a pivotal moment for Google TPU, transitioning from a backend computational tool to a prominent player in AI training, leveraging high-bandwidth and high-performance TPU clusters [3][16] - The Gemini 3 model, trained on Google’s TPU, has achieved record scores in various benchmarks, indicating a substantial leap in capabilities compared to previous models [15][16] - Meta is reportedly negotiating with Google to deploy TPU chips in its data centers starting in 2027, which could significantly impact Nvidia's market share in AI training [21][33] Chinese Commercial Aerospace - The establishment of a dedicated Commercial Space Administration by the National Space Administration signifies a strategic move to enhance the management and development of the commercial aerospace sector [39] - The action plan released on November 25 outlines goals for the commercial aerospace industry, including enhancing innovation, resource utilization, and overall industry scale by 2027 [38][39] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is conducting commercial trials for satellite IoT services, aiming to improve market supply and service capabilities in various sectors [38][39]