Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Multi-Cycle Timing Model for Domestic Interest Rates - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses kernel regression algorithms to identify support and resistance lines of interest rate trends. It evaluates the breakthrough patterns of interest rate movements across different investment cycles to form multi-cycle composite timing signals[10][24]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Data Input**: Yield-to-Maturity (YTM) data for 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds[6][10]. - **Cycle Classification**: - Long cycle: Monthly frequency - Medium cycle: Bi-weekly frequency - Short cycle: Weekly frequency[10][21]. - **Signal Generation**: - A signal is generated when at least two cycles show consistent directional breakthroughs (upward or downward). - For example, for the 5-year YTM, the current signal is "bearish" as both the long and medium cycles show upward breakthroughs, while the short cycle shows no signal[10]. - **Scoring Mechanism**: - Each cycle contributes one "vote" for upward or downward breakthroughs. - A composite score is calculated based on the total votes, and the final signal is determined[10][13][17]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures interest rate trends and provides actionable timing signals for different bond maturities[10][24]. 2. Model Name: Multi-Cycle Timing Model for US Interest Rates - **Model Construction Idea**: The domestic timing model is applied to the US Treasury market to generate timing signals for 10-year US Treasury YTM[21]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Data Input**: 10-year US Treasury YTM data[21]. - **Cycle Classification**: Same as the domestic model (long, medium, and short cycles)[21]. - **Signal Generation**: - The current signal is "neutral" as only the short cycle shows an upward breakthrough, while the long and medium cycles show no signal[21]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates adaptability to international markets, providing consistent timing signals for US Treasuries[21]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Multi-Cycle Timing Model for Domestic Interest Rates - **5-Year YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 5.48% - Maximum drawdown: 2.88% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.91 - Short-term annualized return (since end-2024): 2.11% - Maximum drawdown: 0.59% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.57 - Long-term excess return: 1.07% - Short-term excess return: 0.87%[6][28][29]. - **10-Year YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 6.06% - Maximum drawdown: 2.74% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 2.21 - Short-term annualized return (since end-2024): 2.39% - Maximum drawdown: 0.58% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 4.14 - Long-term excess return: 1.65% - Short-term excess return: 1.36%[28][29]. - **30-Year YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 7.34% - Maximum drawdown: 4.27% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.72 - Short-term annualized return (since end-2024): 3.03% - Maximum drawdown: 0.92% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.31 - Long-term excess return: 2.43% - Short-term excess return: 2.97%[28][29][33]. 2. Multi-Cycle Timing Model for US Interest Rates - The report does not provide specific backtesting results for the US model, but the current signal is "neutral" based on the latest data[21]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Interest Rate Structure Indicators (Level, Term, Convexity) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Transform YTM data into structural indicators (level, term, and convexity) to analyze the interest rate market from a mean-reversion perspective[7]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Level Structure**: Represents the average interest rate level. - Current value: 1.63% - Historical percentiles: 25% (3 years), 15% (5 years), 7% (10 years)[7]. - **Term Structure**: Represents the slope of the yield curve. - Current value: 0.45% - Historical percentiles: 34% (3 years), 21% (5 years), 23% (10 years)[7]. - **Convexity Structure**: Represents the curvature of the yield curve. - Current value: 0.01% - Historical percentiles: 26% (3 years), 16% (5 years), 13% (10 years)[7]. - **Factor Evaluation**: These indicators provide a comprehensive view of the interest rate market's structural characteristics, aiding in timing and allocation decisions[7]. --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Interest Rate Structure Indicators**: - The report does not provide specific backtesting results for these factors, but their historical percentiles indicate their relative positioning in the market[7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications, highlighting the competitive landscape for AI operating systems as companies like Alibaba and ByteDance launch new products [6][21]. - It suggests a strategic focus on the fintech sector, particularly in light of recent regulatory changes that may encourage insurance companies to increase market participation [27][28]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry comprises 286 stocks with a total market capitalization of 4220.9 billion and a circulating market value of 3742.6 billion [3]. - Recent performance metrics show a 1-month absolute performance of -4.3%, a 6-month performance of 17.2%, and a 12-month performance of 16.4% [5]. Recent Developments - ByteDance launched the "Doubao" mobile assistant, enhancing user interaction through AI capabilities [9][11]. - DeepSeek introduced two new models, DeepSeek-V3.2 and DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale, which exhibit leading inference capabilities in the global market [16][20]. - Amazon unveiled its new AI training chip, Trainium 3, aimed at competing with Nvidia and Google in the AI chip market [21][22]. Market Performance Review - The computer sector experienced a decline of 1.73% in the first week of December 2025, with notable gainers including Hangtian Zhizhuang and Dineike [29][30].

1. 当前市场观察 ❑ 择时观点上，目前我们仍维持震荡市展望，但乐观程度较前上月有所上升， 市场大幅回调概率不高，建议保持耐心等待交易情绪回暖，核心原因有三： 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 12 月 7 日 利好逐步积累，但仍需交易量能回暖 ——A 股趋势与风格定量观察 20251207 1）外部流动性上，美联储降息或为大概率事件，而日央行加息预期冲击或 弱于 2024 年，整体上对 A 股利空已经释放。目前 CME"美联储观察"对 12 月美联储降息概率的预测达到 87.20%，且"鸽派"候选人哈塞特接棒下一任 美联储主席的概率提升。而日央行此次加息预期影响或弱于 2024 年，一是 因为当前日本通胀虽偏高但薪资增速仍不乐观，日央行货币政策正常化节奏 或相对平稳；二是当前美元处于贬值预期导致日元空头仓位偏低，故 2024 年日元大量空头被动平仓导致美元流动性短期大幅收紧的情况或较难出现。 2）内部流动性上，本周国内出现今年较为罕见的股债同跌情况，部分观点 认为是年底结售汇高峰下的期限错配叠加央行流动性释放节奏偏缓，导致长 久期资产出现短期流动性收紧。从后续展望上来看，短期流动性收紧并不改 变国内 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 7 日 近期政策端变化如何影响 A 股市场？ ——A 股投资策略周报（1207） 近期出台的政策集中在资本市场与消费政策两个领域，前者包含了险资部分业务风 险因子调降与上市公司监管条例征求意见，后者则主要聚焦服务消费，重点部署文 旅及体育消费。往后看，12 月即将举行政治局会议及中央经济工作会议，建议重点 关注促内需政策、新兴产业政策与重大项目开展情况。 《A 股调整的原因和恢复上涨的 信 号 — — A 股投资策略周报 （1123）》 《近期国内外流动性变化及其对 市场的影响？——A 股投资策略 周报（1116）》 《近期的商品涨价行情对 A 股市 场有何影响？——A 股投资策略 周报（1108）》 《四中全会解读与十五五规划展 望 — — A 股 投 资 策 略 周 报 （1025）》 《市场调整结束了吗？后续如何 应 对 — — A 股投资策略周报 （1018）》 《本轮中美关税复盘及市场影响 预 判 — — A 股投资策略周报 （1012）》 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S109 ...

银行资负跟踪 20251207 Q4 银行浮盈兑现估算和 EVE 指标影响看法 总量研究/银行 证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 11363.4 | 10.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 10692.5 | 11.2 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -2.0 -1.0 15.2 相对表现 -1.1 -19.2 -1.7 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Dec/24 Apr/25 Jul/25 Nov/25 (%) 银行 沪深300 相关报告 1、《1500 亿以下发债银行资负情况 — 银 行 资 负 跟 踪 20251130 》 2025-11-30 2、《央行利率比价与综合收益比价 的异同—银行资负跟踪 20251123》 2025-11-23 3、《资本和风险分类新规过渡期结 束压力测算 — 银 行 研 思 录 26 》 2025-11-18 王先爽 S1090 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观预测报告 2025 年 12 月 6 日 固定资产投资增速或仍偏弱 —2025 年 11 月宏观经济预测报告 频率：每月 点评报告 相关报告 1、《服务消费淡季回调明显— —11 月 PMI 数据点评》2025- 12-6 | 张静静 | S1090522050003 | | --- | --- | | zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn | | | 张岸天 | S1090522070002 | | zhangantian@cmschina.com.cn | | | 罗 丹 | S1090524070004 | | luodan7@cmschina.com.cn | | | 张玉书 | 研究助理 | | zhangyushu@cmschina.com.cn | | | 赵兴举 | 研究助理 | zhaoxingju@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 表 1：宏观经济指标实际值、预测值与未来方向 | 分类 | 预测指标 | 10 月实际 | 11 月预测 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 制造业 PMI（%） | ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time, considering the scarcity of smart imaging brands and the growth potential of its business [1][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the company's position as a leading brand in smart imaging, expanding from handheld devices to the drone market, and emphasizes its innovative products and technological leadership [1][6][7]. - The company is expected to grow its revenue significantly, with projections of 9.6 billion, 14.65 billion, and 19.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 1.03 billion, 1.81 billion, and 2.72 billion [7][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2015, has become a leader in the panoramic camera market and is expanding its product lines to include action cameras, wearable cameras, gimbals, and drones, while also starting to develop software services [6][12]. - The revenue distribution in 2024 is expected to be 85.9% from consumer devices, 0.4% from professional devices, and 12.9% from accessories, with significant contributions from regions like China, the US, Europe, and Japan [12][13]. Handheld Imaging Devices - The company is recognized as the leader in the panoramic camera segment, continuously enriching its product line and driving market expansion alongside competitors like DJI [16][33]. - The report indicates that the market for handheld imaging devices could reach hundreds of billions, driven by increasing outdoor activities and social media sharing [18][39]. Drone Market - The drone market is projected to grow significantly, with the company entering this space by leveraging its expertise in panoramic imaging to differentiate itself from competitors like DJI [7][33]. - The report notes that the company has developed proprietary technologies in flight control, obstacle avoidance, and image transmission, which are critical for drone functionality [7][33]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to see substantial revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 66.2% from 2017 to 2024, driven by the success of its panoramic cameras and the introduction of new product lines [13][39]. - The financial outlook includes projected revenues of 9.6 billion in 2025, with a net profit of 1.03 billion, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [8][39]. Software Services - The introduction of cloud services in 2025 is expected to enhance user engagement and provide significant profit potential in the long term [56]. - The software business is anticipated to grow rapidly, benefiting from the integration with existing hardware products and the company's advancements in AI technology [56].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 05 日 10 月业务量增速放缓，单票价格同比持续修复 快递行业 2025 年 10 月数据跟踪 周期/交通运输 本月关注：关注旺季价格表现和数据验证情况及 26 年反内卷政策持续性。 ❑ 快递行业核心数据：1）业务量同比增速放缓，2025 年 10 月，全国快递业务 量完成 176.0 亿件，同比增长 7.9%，同比增幅较上月下降 4.9pct；2）单票价格 同比跌幅收窄，单票收入为 7.48 元，同比下降 3.0%，同比降幅较上月收窄 1.9pct， 环比下降 0.9%；3）收入，快递业务收入完成 1316.7 亿元，同比增长 4.7%，同 比增幅较上月下降 2.5pct。 ❑ 消费数据：1-10 月社零总额累计实现 41.2 万亿元，同比增长 4.3%，其中 10 月社零总额实现 4.6 万亿元，同比增长 2.9%；1-10 月实物商品网上零售额累计 实现 10.4 万亿元，同比增长 6.3%，根据推算，其中 10 月实物商品网上零售额 实现 1.25 万亿元，同比增长 4.9%；对应 1-10 月累计电商渗透率达 25.2%，同比 下降 0.7p ...

国庆中秋长航线需求旺盛，国际线复苏强劲 航空行业 2025 年 10 月数据跟踪 周期/交通运输 本月关注：10 月行业整体需求增速回升，客座率同比显著提升，国庆中秋双节 假期长航线需求旺盛，国际航线复苏强劲。 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 05 日 ❑ 风险提示：宏观经济下行、人民币大幅贬值、油价大幅上涨、重大自然灾害 等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 128 | 2.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3162.2 | 3.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2949.3 | 3.1 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -2.8 5.6 5.4 相对表现 -1.2 -11.9 -10.3 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Dec/24 Apr/25 Jul/25 Nov/25 (%) 交通运输 沪深300 相关报告 1、《招商交通运输行业周报—油运 旺季景气维持，民航需求增长持续超 预期》2025-11-16 2、《交运行业 2025 年三季报总结— 关 ...

Market Outlook - The report emphasizes a preference for large-cap stocks in December, suggesting a potential shift from growth to value investing as the market focuses on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and significant domestic meetings at year-end [1][11] - Historical data indicates that from 2015 to 2024, large-cap stocks have shown a higher probability of outperforming small-cap stocks in December, with a 70% success rate for large-cap over small-cap [12][14] Liquidity and Capital Supply - The report anticipates stable net inflows of incremental capital in December, with foreign capital activity expected to increase [3][20] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a supportive monetary policy stance, which is likely to maintain a reasonable liquidity level in the market [20][21] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as banking, textiles, and petrochemicals are expected to perform well, while sectors that previously saw significant gains, like technology and automotive, may underperform [2][3] - The report highlights that sectors related to AI and technology are likely to attract new capital due to the issuance of several technology-focused funds in December [11][35] Investment Recommendations - Recommended indices for December include the CSI 300, STAR Market 50, low-volatility dividend indices, and technology indices related to Hong Kong stocks [12][11] - The report suggests that the performance of the CSI 300 and dividend indices is likely to be stronger in the latter half of December, coinciding with the earnings forecast period for listed companies [17][18]