Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the hedge fund industry but indicates a positive performance trend with hedge funds achieving a +3% YTD return and a +10% return for the Hedge Fund VIP list [2][12][13]. Core Insights - Hedge funds are becoming more selective in their investments, particularly rotating away from Financials and increasing exposure to Health Care and Communication Services [4][11]. - The average US long/short equity hedge fund has delivered a +3% YTD return, with popular long positions outperforming concentrated shorts in most sectors [2][12]. - Hedge funds are focusing on stocks related to AI and potential deregulation, with notable increases in positions for companies like CRM and NOW [4][48]. Performance, Leverage, and Short Interest - Hedge funds have lifted gross and net leverage, with gross leverage at 284%, ranking in the 99th percentile compared to the last five years [23]. - The median S&P 500 stock has a short interest of 2.0% of market cap, the highest level since 2020 [24][29]. - Hedge fund long positions have outperformed the S&P 500 by 11 percentage points over the last six months, marking the largest magnitude of outperformance since 2021 [12][20]. Sector Positions - Hedge funds have reduced their net tilt towards Financials, which have rallied +12% since the 2024 presidential election, while increasing exposure to Health Care and Communication Services [11]. - The report highlights that many Financials stocks still appear on the Hedge Fund VIP list, indicating selective interest despite the overall sector reduction [11][4]. Thematic and Factor Tilts - Hedge funds have increased ownership in potential deregulation beneficiaries and stocks with domestic sales, while reducing exposure to companies with significant China supply chain risks [48]. - The report notes a significant increase in hedge fund positions in AI-enabled revenue stocks, with the Software industry now representing 11% of hedge fund long portfolios, the largest weight since Q3 2023 [4][48].

Investment Ratings - Alibaba: Buy with a 12-month target price (TP) raised to US$160/HK$156 from US$117/HK$114 [1] - Xiaomi: Buy with a 12-month TP increased to HK$58 [2] - Humanoid Robots: Buy-rated companies include Harmonic Drive, Sanhua & Tuopu [6] - Rio Tinto: Buy with a 12-month TP of A$143.70 [10] - NetEase: Buy with a 12-month TP of US$116/HK$181 [11] - Bilibili: Buy with a 12-month TP raised to US$23.7/HK$185 [11] - Laopu Gold: Buy with a new 12-month TP of HKD553 [11] - Mengniu Dairy: Buy with a 12-month TP raised to HK$23.60 from HK$21.80 [13] - Tokyo Electron: Buy with a 12-month TP of ¥35,000 [14] - Foxconn Industrial: Buy with a 12-month TP of Rmb25.84 [15] - BYDE: Buy with a 12-month TP of HK$67.05 [15] Core Insights - Alibaba's eCommerce profits are stabilizing, with a significant upside from AI and cloud services, leading to an increase in revenue growth forecasts for Alibaba Cloud [1] - Xiaomi is enhancing its AI capabilities and expanding its ecosystem, resulting in increased revenue forecasts for 2025-26E by 4%-7% [2] - The global humanoid robot industry is transitioning to volume production, with a potential total addressable market (TAM) of US$38 billion to US$205 billion by 2035E [6] - China's "Two Sessions" are expected to maintain a GDP growth target of "around 5%" and increase the fiscal deficit target to 4.0% of GDP, indicating a focus on fiscal expansion [8] - The Chinese property market shows signs of bottoming, with better policy execution needed to support recovery and increase household confidence [8] Summary by Company Alibaba - 3QFY25 results exceeded expectations, leading to a TP increase and a Buy rating [1] - Cloud revenue growth forecast raised to +23%/+25% for FY26/27E [1] Xiaomi - Positioned to leverage AI for expanding its ecosystem, with revenue forecasts raised by 4%-7% [2] - EPS forecasts lifted by 17-20% due to improved profitability in IoT and EV sectors [2] Humanoid Robots - Industry entering volume production phase with significant demand growth anticipated [6] - Preferred stocks include Harmonic Drive, Sanhua & Tuopu [6] Rio Tinto - 2024 results in line with estimates, maintaining a Buy rating with a strong cash flow outlook [10] NetEase - Strong performance in PC games offsetting mobile slowdown, leading to a Buy rating [11] Bilibili - First positive GAAP profit quarter, positioned to benefit from AI and advertising growth [11] Laopu Gold - Profit warning indicates higher productivity, leading to a TP increase [11] Mengniu Dairy - Strong core profit delivery amid low cycle, with earnings estimates revised up [13] Tokyo Electron - Expected growth driven by advanced memory investments, maintaining a Buy rating [14] Foxconn Industrial - Positive outlook on cloud computing business and AI server shipments [15] BYDE - Anticipated growth in automotive electronics supported by smart driving adoption [15]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a challenging week for US equities, with a focus on momentum wobbles, retail pressure, and poor economic data, leading to a negative sentiment in the market [1][2]. Core Insights - US stocks experienced a decline influenced by long-term inflation expectations and new coronavirus headlines, with specific sectors like Bond Proxies, GLP-1, and China ADRs outperforming, while Bitcoin Sensitive Equities, Memes, and AI Software faced significant losses [1][2]. - Hedge funds (HFs) have been net sellers for eight consecutive weeks, particularly in TMT stocks, indicating a significant unwinding of risk, comparable to levels seen in July of the previous year [3][4]. - The retail sector has been underperforming, with the GS Retailer Basket down 5% year-to-date, reflecting a broader trend of consumer spending volatility [13][14]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - US equities faced downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors, with a notable net selling activity from hedge funds, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [3][4]. - The S&P 500 implied move for the upcoming week is projected at 1.27%, with key macroeconomic indicators such as US Consumer Confidence, GDP, and PCE scheduled for release [4][5]. Sector Performance - The healthcare sector outperformed during the week, driven by a defensive rotation amidst weaker consumer data, although some companies faced significant challenges [13][15]. - Retailers are experiencing a slow start to Q1, with notable declines in consumer discretionary stocks, which have been net sold for nine consecutive weeks [3][14]. Futures and Derivatives - Positioning in Russell 2K futures has significantly decreased year-to-date, with expectations of additional supply if negative price momentum continues [6][7]. - The report highlights an oversupply of dealer gamma in derivatives, with expectations of volatility stabilizing at a local floor [8]. ETFs and Investment Trends - Recent activity in China Technology ETFs has shown a shift towards profit-taking, while there has been a rotation into gold as a safe haven amid tariff uncertainties [9][10]. - The report notes that retail euphoria may create opportunities as the US tax season approaches, but risks are present if retail investors need to liquidate positions to cover capital gains [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Cambricon (688256.SS) with a 12-month price target of Rmb607.80, reflecting a downside of 1.7% from the current price of Rmb618.51 [14][16]. Core Insights - The collaboration between Nanjing Intelligent Computing Center and Cambricon to establish a data center utilizing local chips and computing power is expected to enhance the retail industry's AI capabilities, particularly through the DeepSeek foundation model [1]. - The revenue guidance for Q4 2024 is projected between Rmb885 million and Rmb1,015 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of 57% to 80%, with a net income of Rmb284 million, marking a significant recovery from a loss of Rmb37 million in Q4 2023 [2][3]. - The report highlights the positive impact of generative AI on Cambricon's market expansion, enabling clients to leverage AI across various applications [2][3]. Revenue and Earnings Forecast - The earnings revision indicates a reduction in the expected net loss for 2024 to Rmb433 million from a previous estimate of Rmb617 million, driven by stronger-than-expected guidance and the growth of generative AI applications [4][6]. - Revenue estimates for 2025-2027 have been increased by 9%, 6%, and 4% respectively, reflecting the anticipated demand and cost-saving potential in marketing [6][9]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a discounted EV/EBITDA methodology to derive the target price, applying a multiple of 77x EV/EBITDA for the 2030E EBITDA, which has been raised by 4% [9][17]. - The target EV/EBITDA multiple is based on comparisons with local semiconductor peers, with an assumption of a 23% EBITDA growth rate in the outer years and a sustained EBITDA margin of 41% [9][17]. - The updated target price of Rmb607.80 implies a valuation of 77x 2025E EV/Sales, consistent with historical trading ranges [9][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Alibaba Group with a lifted 12-month target price to US$160/HK$156 from US$117/HK$114 [2][3][29] Core Insights - Alibaba's domestic eCommerce profits are stabilizing, with expectations of stable absolute Taobao-Tmall EBITA for FY26-27E [2][3] - Alibaba Cloud revenue growth is projected to accelerate to +23%/+25% for FY26/27E, up from +13%/+14% [2][3] - The report highlights the significant increase in AI-related capital expenditures, with a targeted annual capex of Rmb100bn (approximately US$14bn) [7][8] Summary by Business Segments eCommerce - Domestic eCommerce market share and profits are stabilizing, with CMR growth of +9% YoY, leading to a revised Taobao-Tmall valuation of US$96 per ADS [5][6] - Forecasted CMR growth for 4QFY25E/FY26/FY27E is 6%/5%/4% respectively, reflecting ongoing competition in the eCommerce sector [5][6] Cloud Services - Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth is expected to reach +23%/+25% YoY for FY26/27E, driven by rising AI demand and a strong public cloud performance [15][16] - The cloud valuation has been lifted to US$31 per ADS from US$19, reflecting the anticipated growth in AI infrastructure [7][8] International eCommerce - AIDC is expected to achieve a single quarter EBITA profit turnaround in FY26E, despite wider losses in the previous quarter [9][10] Local Services - Revenue for local services grew by +12% YoY to Rmb17.0bn, with adjusted EBITA loss narrowing significantly [17][18] Non-Core Segments - Losses in non-core business segments are narrowing, with improved operating efficiency in local services and digital media [19][20] Shareholder Returns - The report notes a quarterly buyback of US$1.3bn, although the pace has moderated compared to previous quarters [22][23]

17 February 2025 | 9:42PM GMT Precious Comment: Raising Our End-2025 Gold Price Forecast to $3,100 As December Central Bank Nowcast Hits 108 Tonnes We Raise Our End-2025 Gold Price Target to $3,100/toz From $2,890/toz Previously; But If Uncertainty Persists, Extended Positioning Could Push the End-2025 Price to $3,300/toz 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 The high uncertainty & pos ...

本报告来源于"慧博投研",请勿外传! 2025年2月4日 | 4:44PM HKT 亚洲聚焦 评估中国以旧换新政策的影响 852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com 高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司 盛(亚洲)有限责任公司 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息,见信息披露附录,或参阅 www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。 ■ 中国经济增长在2024年四季度从年中低位回升,这部分得益于由政府补贴支持的 消费品以旧换新政策。尽管当局频频提及以旧换新对总需求的拉动,但对GDP增 长而言,政府补贴带来的增量需求发挥着重要影响,因为无论政府是否提供补 贴,很多销售本就会发生。在本报告中,我们将探究以旧换新政策对2024年零售 总额和GDP的影响,并对2025年的潜在影响作出预测。 ■ 正在实施的消费品以旧换新政策于去年4月26日正式发布,消费者按照要求淘汰高 能耗的旧车/家电、并购置新车/家电可获得政府补贴(中国版"旧车换现金 (cash-for-clunkers)"）。由于中央财政在8月份安排了人民币1,500亿元的补贴资 金,而 ...

Group 1: Tariff Policy Overview - Trump's tariff policy announced on inauguration day is milder than expected, indicating lower priority for broad tariffs than previously anticipated[1] - The likelihood of imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico is assessed at 20%, reflecting a lower probability than earlier predictions[1] - The probability of imposing approximately 20 percentage points of tariffs on imports from China has been reduced from 90% to 70%, but remains a basic scenario[1] Group 2: Specific Tariff Predictions - The likelihood of implementing universal tariffs this year has been lowered to 25%, with expectations that any such tariffs would target "critical imports" accounting for 10-20% of total U.S. imports[1] - The probability of tariffs on EU automobiles is estimated at 55%, while the overall chance of tariffs on all imports is set at 25%[3] - The potential final tariff amounts for China include a 25% tariff on lists 1-2 (totaling $34 billion) and a 10% tariff on list 4b (totaling $116 billion)[3] Group 3: Implementation Timeline and Risks - The trade policy memorandum requires assessments to be submitted by April 1, suggesting that any new tariffs may be implemented in the second quarter, though risks lean towards a later implementation[1] - Trump's previous commitments regarding tariffs on Mexico and Canada have not been fulfilled, indicating uncertainty in future tariff actions[1] - The memorandum reflects a consideration of various legal authorities for imposing tariffs, including Section 301 and Section 232, but consensus on specific actions has not yet been reached[4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huahai Pharmaceutical is "Sell" with a target price adjusted to RMB 14 from RMB 15, reflecting an 8.3% downside from the current price of RMB 15.26 [1][7][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit forecast for 2024 in the range of RMB 11.40 billion to RMB 12.40 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 37% to 49%, which exceeds previous estimates of RMB 10.52 billion. This positive outlook is attributed to lower-than-expected sales management expense ratios [1][5]. - The report indicates that the company has successfully transitioned from a raw material manufacturer to a leading exporter of generic drugs, primarily serving the US and Chinese markets. However, profitability remains challenged due to increasing pressure on generic products in the US market, rising R&D costs, and ongoing patent litigation [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Forecasts - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024 to 2027 have been adjusted, with 2024 revenue expected to be RMB 9.568 billion and net profit at RMB 1.198 billion, reflecting a 13.9% increase from previous estimates. The EPS for 2024 is projected at RMB 0.80, up 12.7% from earlier predictions [4][6]. Market Position and Challenges - Huahai Pharmaceutical faces challenges in maintaining profitability due to increasing competition in the US market, rising R&D costs, and legal issues related to patent disputes. The current expected P/E ratio is above the five-year average, indicating a potentially overvalued stock [5][6]. Valuation Methodology - The target price of RMB 14 is based on a 16x five-year exit P/E valuation method, assuming an 8% CAGR in expected EPS over the next five years. The report highlights potential upside risks, including better-than-expected product pipeline deliveries and sales, as well as a recovery in the US market [6][7].

Tariff Policy and Expectations - The Trump administration's tariff policy is expected to increase rates on autos and imports from China, with a 70% probability for the latter[2] - Revised tariff assumptions indicate potential increases from 25% to 60% on certain Chinese imports, affecting approximately $34 billion[3] Retaliation Risks - Historical data suggests that retaliatory tariffs from trading partners could mirror previous responses, targeting similar products[4] - Retaliatory tariffs led to a 20% decline in US exports to countries imposing such tariffs, following an average tariff rate increase of 15 percentage points[20] Economic Impact - Retaliatory tariffs significantly impacted US exports of homogeneous goods, with declines of 30-60% for agricultural and natural resource products[26] - The S&P 500 index fell by 7% on days when foreign countries announced retaliatory tariffs, compounding a 5% decline on US tariff announcement days[30] Targeted Products - Key sectors likely to be targeted by foreign retaliation include autos, agricultural products, and raw materials, which were heavily affected in the last trade war[37] - China may impose additional measures beyond tariffs, such as export controls on critical materials that are difficult to source elsewhere[53]