Core Insights - The Goldman Sachs economic team forecasts China's GDP growth to slow from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025, primarily due to ongoing real estate deleveraging and escalating trade tensions with developed markets impacting exports. However, strong government policy measures are expected to alleviate these challenges and facilitate a shift from trade and investment-driven growth to domestic consumption-driven growth [2][11][17] - The MSCI China Index and CSI300 Index are projected to rise approximately 20% by the end of 2025, driven by expected earnings growth of 7% and 10% respectively, alongside reasonable price-to-earnings ratios of 11x and 14x. This baseline forecast assumes a 20% increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by the US and effective implementation of fiscal policies [2][6][11] - Despite a challenging start to the year, the risk/reward profile for Chinese equities remains attractive, leading to an overweight recommendation for both A-shares and H-shares [6][11][32] Market Overview - Short-term returns for A-shares and H-shares are expected to stabilize, with market sentiment and liquidity conditions likely improving by the end of Q1 2025 as tariff and policy clarity emerges [6][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of government consumption proxies, emerging market exporters, and new technology/infrastructure investments as key investment themes for 2025 [11][17][23] Investment Themes - Government consumption proxies are expected to benefit from a recovery in local government spending, particularly in sectors such as construction, transportation infrastructure, and healthcare [11][12][14] - Companies that export to emerging markets and those that benefit from RMB depreciation are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, as they may gain market share in stable or improving trade relationships [17][20][62] - Investments in "Little Giants," which are emerging companies supported by government policy, are recommended due to their alignment with national strategic objectives [23][27][63] Sector Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in consumer sectors, particularly online retail, media, and healthcare, while advising caution in sectors like autos and energy due to competitive pressures and market conditions [36][39][44] - The healthcare sector is expected to recover in 2025, with a projected growth rate of around 15% as regulatory pressures ease [40][41] - The banking sector is upgraded to market weight, anticipating stronger loan growth and sustained dividend payouts due to expected government support [49] Factor and Style Preferences - The report favors a blend of value and growth stocks, particularly those that exhibit strong cash returns through dividends and buybacks, as well as select small and mid-cap stocks that may offer alpha opportunities [52][55][56] - The analysis indicates that small caps may stabilize in performance relative to large caps, with a focus on thematic investments in "Little Giants" potentially generating excess returns [55][56]

Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com 高盛集团 Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com 高盛集团 2025年1月9日 | 8:58AM EST 美国经济日评: 12月份非农就业数据前瞻 Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com 高盛集团 Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com 高盛集团 David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com 高盛集团 Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.com 高盛集团 Jessica Rindels +1(972)368-1516 | jessica.rindels@gs.com 高盛集团 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 www.gs.com/re ...

Investment Rating - The report rates Hisense Home Appliances (000921.SZ) as "Buy" due to predictable profit growth supported by the 2024 employee incentive plan, attractive dividend yield, and low valuation with an average price corresponding to 12 times the expected earnings for 2025, while profit growth exceeds 10% [6][8]. Core Insights - Management expects revenue growth in Q4 2024 and throughout 2025 to be in the mid-to-high single digits, with profits reaching the targets set in the incentive plan [1][4]. - The central air conditioning business remains a focal point for investors, with expectations of sequential improvement in Q4 2024, primarily driven by the 2C and 2B channels, while the engineering channel remains weak [1][4]. - The recently announced "trade-in" policy is anticipated to boost sales of central air conditioning units, as consumers can receive subsidies for up to three units this year compared to one last year [1]. - The white goods sector is benefiting from the trade-in stimulus measures, with a sequential improvement in the domestic market in Q4, and strong growth in overseas markets, particularly in emerging markets [1][4]. - Management anticipates stable profit margins for central air conditioning, with efficiency improvements offsetting the drag from channel and brand structure [1][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Expectations - For Q4 2024, management expects revenue growth to be in the mid-to-high single digits, with profit growth helping to achieve the annual growth targets set in the incentive plan [4]. - Domestic market growth for white goods has significantly improved compared to Q3, with October showing approximately 20% month-on-month growth for refrigerators and washing machines, while November and December saw single-digit growth [4]. Central Air Conditioning Business - The engineering channel in the domestic market faces significant growth pressure, while the 2C and 2B channels are showing signs of recovery [4][5]. - For 2025, management expects domestic sales to remain flat, while overseas markets are projected to continue strong growth, driven by expansion into non-European and non-VRF markets [4][5]. Traditional White Goods Business - Despite adjustments in Q3 2024 shipment volumes, management remains optimistic about market share growth driven by product improvements and channel expansion [5]. - Management expects profit margins for traditional white goods to improve due to product structure enhancements and efficiency gains [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][10]. Core Insights - The management emphasizes a market share-driven strategy, focusing on expanding the market share of key products such as NOR Flash, MCU, and DRAM. Key initiatives include product expansion targeting the automotive market and enhancing cost competitiveness through partnerships and innovation [2]. - The company is poised to benefit from the growth of edge AI, with expectations of increased demand for NOR Flash in AI PCs, AI headphones, and AI glasses, which require higher storage capacities [2]. - The price trend for products has likely bottomed out, but the potential for price recovery remains low [3]. Summary by Sections 2025 Outlook - The management's focus remains on expanding market share, with overall demand expected to remain volatile. The price trend has stabilized at low levels, with limited further downside, and price increases in 2025 are not anticipated [4]. - For NOR Flash, despite intense competition, the company maintains its position as the second-largest global revenue generator. The 2024 shipment volume is expected to be strong, driven by the automotive market and edge AI devices [4]. - The company aims for a 50% year-on-year increase in NOR Flash sales to the automotive sector in 2024, with similar growth targeted for 2025 [4]. MCU and DRAM Insights - The MCU segment is expected to see a slight recovery in 2024, with further observation needed for 2025 due to macroeconomic uncertainties. The overall revenue in the MCU sector has bottomed out in 2024 [5]. - The niche DRAM segment is currently undergoing a temporary inventory digestion phase, with a potential return to supply-demand balance expected in the second half of 2025 [8]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to enter a new growth cycle as it expands into niche DRAM products, supported by a strong increase in market share in mainland China. The NOR Flash and MCU businesses are expected to remain stable, with moderate recovery anticipated from 2024 to 2025 [10]. - The 12-month target price is set at RMB 120, based on a 37x P/E ratio for 2025 [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of RMB 56, indicating an upside potential of 37.4% from the current price of RMB 40.76 [11][13]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience strong revenue growth across all three business segments: optical modules, laser equipment, and new energy vehicle sensors, driven by domestic demand and international expansion [2][6][7]. - The management maintains confidence in the profit growth outlook for 2025, with key drivers including the increasing demand for optical modules and the expansion of laser equipment and sensor businesses [2][4][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Optical Modules - The company is a major supplier in the domestic market and is expanding its presence with U.S. clients. The demand for optical modules in China is projected to exceed 10 million units in 2025, up from 6-7 million in 2024. The main products will be 400G optical modules, with an increasing share of 800G modules [2][3]. - The gross margin for optical modules is expected to reach 15%-20%, driven by product structure upgrades and increased sales of high-margin products [2][3]. Laser Equipment - The management expects sales growth of over 20% for the laser equipment segment, supported by strong demand from the shipbuilding industry and new orders from smartphone manufacturers anticipated in the second half of 2025 [4][6]. New Energy Vehicle Sensors - This segment is projected to have the highest net profit margin, with growth driven by expansion into overseas automotive clients and the introduction of new sensor products. Despite pricing pressures, the company aims to maintain stable profit margins through product improvements and cost control [7][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 10.2 billion in 2024 to RMB 18.3 billion in 2025, with net income expected to increase from RMB 1.0 billion to RMB 2.1 billion during the same period [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the durable consumer goods sector, including Midea, Haier, Gree, Hisense, and Supor [4][11][14][16][19]. Core Insights - The newly announced policies for the "old-for-new" appliance replacement program are expected to positively impact consumer demand for home appliances, with investors likely to welcome these specific measures [3]. - The expansion of the subsidy program includes an increase in the number of appliance categories eligible for subsidies, from 8 to 12, and allows consumers to claim subsidies for up to three air conditioning units instead of one, potentially increasing the attractiveness of central air conditioning products [1][2][3]. - The report anticipates that the 2025 "old-for-new" program will be implemented smoothly, contrary to previous expectations of potential interruptions [3]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced the expansion of the "old-for-new" appliance replacement policy, adding new categories such as microwaves, water purifiers, dishwashers, and rice cookers [1]. - The maximum subsidy for air conditioning units can reach RMB 6,000, with a subsidy of RMB 2,000 per unit for energy-efficient products [1][2]. Company-Specific Insights - Midea Group is positioned as a leading player in the HVAC and major appliance markets, with a target price of RMB 87 based on a 16x exit valuation multiple [9][10]. - Hisense is expected to benefit from structural growth in its VRF business, with a target price of RMB 31 based on a 16x expected P/E ratio [11][12]. - Haier is projected to maintain robust growth due to market share gains and product premiumization, with a target price of RMB 33 based on a 15x exit P/E ratio [14]. - Gree Electric is noted for its attractive risk-reward profile, with a target price of RMB 50 based on a 10x exit P/E ratio [16]. - Supor is expected to see revenue growth driven by its expansion into new product categories, with a target price of RMB 62 based on a 22x expected P/E ratio [19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Daqo New Energy ADR/A (DQ/688303.SS) is "Buy" based on the belief that the current valuation overly reflects concerns about the decline in polysilicon prices and that the company will maintain its industry-leading position in the medium to long term [6]. Core Insights - Daqo New Energy has reduced its production capacity utilization to 35%-40% in Q4 2024 to match downstream demand and has successfully lowered its inventory to a healthy level of one month [2][3]. - The company is experiencing a continuous decrease in cash costs due to falling industrial polysilicon and electricity prices, as well as optimization of production capacity structure [2]. - Management confirmed the implementation of an industry production quota mechanism, which is expected to last at least until mid-2025 [2][3]. - If polysilicon prices rise above RMB 50 per kilogram, the company may increase its capacity utilization, with an expected monthly demand increase of 50,000-100,000 tons [3]. - The company plans to execute a $100 million ADR buyback only after reaching cash cost breakeven, which is above RMB 45 per kilogram for polysilicon [3]. Summary by Sections Production and Inventory Management - As of the end of 2024, Daqo New Energy's inventory has been reduced to one month, down from a peak of two months, while production capacity utilization has decreased to 35%-40% from 50% in Q3 2024 [2]. Cost Structure - The management anticipates a reduction in cash costs in Q4 2024 due to lower prices for industrial polysilicon and electricity, alongside the closure of older production lines in Xinjiang [2][3]. Industry Mechanisms - The production quota mechanism led by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association is primarily based on self-discipline among companies, with no substantial penalties for violations [2]. Price Sensitivity - The management indicated that if polysilicon prices remain below RMB 55 per kilogram, the likelihood of resuming second and third-tier production capacity is low, as this price point corresponds to the EBITDA breakeven level for marginal capacities [3]. Financial Strategy - The company is waiting to reach cash cost breakeven before considering the execution of its ADR buyback plan, which is contingent on polysilicon prices exceeding RMB 45 per kilogram [3].

2025年1月7日 | 9:49AM CST 福斯特 (603806.SS): 企业日：预计光伏胶膜出货量增长 10%-20%；2025年POE树脂价格有望企稳 我们在1月6日的光伏企业系列电话会上主持了福斯特的会议。要点包括：1）预计光 伏胶膜出货量将同比增长10%-20%；2）行业产能退出在2024年四季度之后加速， 2025年或将持续；3）POE树脂价格可能在2025年企稳；4）海外光伏胶膜产能呈扩 张趋势；5）电子膜类材料在2025年将继续保持快速出货增长和利润率提升。 详情如下： 证券研究报告 Research | Equity 王梦雯 +86(21)2401-8932 | mengwen.wang@goldmansachs.cn 高盛（中国）证券有限责任公司 杜茜 1. 预计光伏胶膜出货量将同比增长10%-20%：管理层预计四季度光伏胶膜出货量约为 7亿平方米，推动2024年全年出货量达到28亿平方米，为全年目标区间高端。管理层 预计2025年出货量将增长10%-20%，因为光伏需求有望同比增长10%-15%，而且产 能加速退出或将推动公司市场份额自2024年的50%-60%持续提高。 2. 行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ), indicating a positive outlook based on several driving factors in early 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights multiple catalysts for the company in the first two months of 2025, including strong AI capital expenditure guidance from clients and the successful rollout of 1.6T products, which are expected to continue throughout the year [1]. - The current stock price corresponds to a 14x expected P/E ratio for 2025, which is considered attractive compared to global peers trading at a 30% to 50% premium [1]. - Concerns regarding tariff risks, new technologies (CPO), and competition from active electrical cables (AEC) are noted, but the report suggests that these risks are already factored into the recent stock price correction [6][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhongji Xuchuang is the largest optical module supplier in China's data communication market, benefiting from its leading position in the 800G/1.6T optical module market, which is crucial for AI and data center development [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 24.475 billion for 2024 and RMB 37.430 billion for 2025, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [12]. - The report anticipates a net income of RMB 10.352 billion for 2025, with an EPS of RMB 9.23, indicating strong profitability [12]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for optical modules driven by AI applications, with a strong execution capability in capacity expansion and new product development [8]. - The report emphasizes that the company maintains a competitive edge through its established supply chain and relationships with major cloud service providers [8]. Price Target - The 12-month price target for Zhongji Xuchuang is set at RMB 240, representing an upside potential of 87% from the current price of RMB 128.35 [9].