Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Eyebright (688050.SS) with a 12-month price target of RMB 133, indicating an upside potential of 35.8% from the current price of RMB 97.96 [9][10]. Core Insights - Eyebright is positioned to capture market share in the PIOL segment with its newly launched product "Loong Crystal," which is expected to compete directly with STAAR Surgical's ICL products. The company anticipates receiving final approval from the National Medical Products Administration soon, raising the product's development success rate from 60% to 95% [1][5]. - The overall clinical efficacy and patient experience of "Loong Crystal" are comparable to leading ICL products, benefiting from good biocompatibility and a unique biconcave structure that reduces friction around the lens [2][4]. - The Chinese refractive surgery market is estimated to reach 1.3 million procedures in 2023, with PIOL penetration at approximately 8.5%. STAAR Surgical currently dominates this market with a 95% share, generating revenue of USD 186 million from China in 2023. Eyebright is expected to gradually capture market share from STAAR in both public and private hospitals [5][8]. Summary by Sections Revenue Forecast Adjustments - The revenue forecasts for Eyebright for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted by 0.0%, -0.2%, +0.2%, and +0.4% respectively, reflecting the higher success rate of the PIOL product, although this is offset by slower growth in the OK lens segment in 2025 [1][7]. Market Share Projections - By 2034, Eyebright is projected to capture approximately 14% of the Chinese PIOL market, with expected revenue from "Loong Crystal" adjusted to RMB 30 million in 2025 [5][6]. Growth Drivers - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% in earnings from 2024 to 2034, driven by increased penetration rates and market share gains, supported by demographic trends such as an aging population and product upgrades in cataract surgery [8][9].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the US economy experienced unexpected growth in 2024, with Q4 GDP increasing approximately 2.5%, surpassing both the initial forecast of 2% and the consensus estimate of 0.8% [2][4] - Core PCE inflation for Q4 2024 was reported at around 2.8%, which was higher than the forecasted 2.2% and the market expectation of 2.4% [2][11] - The report indicates a strong market reaction to economic data surprises, particularly inflation data, with stock market sensitivity being 2.2 times the normal level and bond market sensitivity at 5.5 times the normal level [2][35] Economic Performance - The report notes that the largest upward revision to growth forecasts was attributed to a surge in immigration, which positively impacted labor force growth and potential GDP [2][4] - The report mentions that the forecasting accuracy for key economic indicators was improved, with a hit rate of 67% for 13 major indicators, slightly above the historical average of 63% [2][16] - Specific indicators such as the unemployment rate and core PCE showed particularly high forecasting accuracy, with hit rates of 100% and 91% respectively [16][22] Market Reactions - The report discusses the heightened sensitivity of the Treasury market to growth surprises, which was about 50% above normal levels in 2024, reflecting concerns about potential recessions and the Fed's data-dependent policy [31][35] - In the equity market, there was a consistent positive response to growth surprises in 2024, indicating a stronger conviction that inflation would remain controlled despite robust growth [33][39] - The report anticipates that as economic conditions normalize, the sensitivity to monthly growth and inflation data may decrease in 2025 [39] Forecasts - The report provides forecasts for real GDP growth, projecting a gradual decline from 2.5% in Q4 2024 to 2.1% by Q2 2025, with consumer expenditures also expected to slow down [41][42] - Inflation forecasts indicate a decrease in both CPI and core CPI, with core PCE expected to stabilize around 2.4% by the end of 2025 [41][42] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly to 4.2% by Q3 2025, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the labor market [41][42]

Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a slight slowdown in China's economic growth due to potential increases in U.S. tariffs, with Japan and Australia expected to perform better than last year[2] - Most Asian economies are projected to lower interest rates in 2025, with Japan being a notable exception as it continues its monetary tightening[2] - China's real estate market is not expected to rebound, with a significant decline in housing starts and prices, which have dropped over 60% from peak levels[6][8] Monetary Policy - The report predicts a 40 basis point reduction in China's main policy interest rate, reflecting a shift towards a more consumption-oriented fiscal policy[10] - Japan's CPI is expected to rise by 2.2% in 2025, supporting the likelihood of two interest rate hikes of 25 basis points each[4] - The broad fiscal deficit in China is projected to rise to 13% of GDP in 2025, indicating a more aggressive fiscal stimulus approach[13] Currency and Trade - The Indian Rupee is viewed positively as a high-yield currency, with expectations of gradual economic recovery in India, projected to exceed 6% growth by late 2025[15][14] - Vietnam faces significant risks from potential U.S. tariffs, with a trade surplus of approximately $100 billion with the U.S.[20] - The report suggests that if tariffs are imposed, the Chinese Yuan may depreciate slightly, with a mid-year forecast of 7.50 against the U.S. dollar[19] Regional Growth Dynamics - Growth in Asia is expected to shift towards domestic demand, particularly in China and North Asia, as macroeconomic policies are relaxed[30] - The report highlights that high-income economies like Japan and Australia will see improved growth rates in 2025, while East Asian economies may experience a slowdown[30] - Overall, the report indicates a rotation in growth dynamics, with a focus on domestic consumption and investment in high-income regions[30]

2025年1月7日 | 7:05AM CST 中国 房地产 第一周综述：一手房和二手房开年交易量大幅下降 本周要点： 中央层面：国务院常务会议研究推进城市更新工作，指出城 市更新是扩大内需的重要抓手，并要求加快推进城镇老旧小 区（住建部最新数据显示，2024年1-11月份，全国新开工改 造城镇老旧小区5.6万个，而2024年全年目标为5.4万个）、 街区、厂区和城中村等改造。会议还指出，要盘活利用存量 低效用地，统筹用好财政、金融资源，完善市场化融资模 式，吸引社会资本参与城市更新。同时，中国人民银行表示 将着力推动已出台金融政策措施落地见效，加大存量商品房 和存量土地盘活力度，推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 我们优化后的放松措施影响追踪（图表 1至图表 5，参见更详 细的计算方法和过去的放松措施影响）表明，在本轮放松周 期的第14周，我们看到：1) 一手房/二手房总销售面积环比 -39%/-28%，较放松前水平高54%/20%（本轮放松周期以来 前几周的平均改善幅度为83%/55%），令一手房/二手房销售 面积较之前放松周期的峰值分别低34%/17%；2) 中原经纪人 指数/中原报价指数环比持平/-2个百分点，较 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology) is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of RMB 61.2, indicating an upside potential of 4.5% from the current price of RMB 58.58 [10][11]. Core Insights - 汇川技术's industrial automation orders in December 2024 showed a year-on-year growth of over 20%, outperforming the previous year's performance, driven by sectors such as electric engineering machinery and consumer electronics [1]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 21% year-on-year in Q4 2024 and 24% for the entire year, with net profit projected to grow by 20% and 7% respectively [1]. - The report highlights the company's strong market position in the industrial automation sector, with significant growth opportunities in overseas markets and expanding market share in PLC products [7]. Summary by Sections Industrial Automation Orders - 汇川技术 reported a year-on-year increase of over 20% in industrial automation orders for December 2024, compared to approximately 10% in November [1]. - The improvement in orders is attributed to the demand from electric engineering machinery, consumer electronics, and other sectors, contrasting with the declining trends seen in competitors [1][2]. Financial Projections - The revenue for the industrial automation segment is expected to grow by 6% in Q4 2024 and 4% for the entire year, aligning with the order growth rates [4]. - The revenue from the new energy vehicle components segment is projected to increase significantly, with growth rates of 36% and 67% for Q4 and the full year respectively [4]. Competitive Positioning - 汇川技术 holds a leading position in the domestic industrial automation market, with market shares of 18% and 29% for its core products, variable frequency drives and servo systems, respectively [7]. - The company is anticipated to increase its overseas revenue share from 6% in 2023 to 18% by 2030, indicating strong international growth potential [7].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-- ...

虽然中央政府仍有空间扩张资产负债表来管理经济放缓的速度，但再通胀过程可 *全文翻译随后提供 国完全可比的例子。尽管如此，我们的发现对于中国来说具有重要的借鉴意义。 Goldman Sachs 亚洲聚焦 As highlighted by our credit strategists, although Chinese policymakers have striven to keep leverage stable since 2016, the last two years have seen leverage increase again. They estimate China's non-financial debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to 307% at the end of 2024 (图表 2). In this note, we update our previous analysis using more recent data, including the latest releases of the Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macroh ...

美国关税风险排序 (摘要) 迪安竹 +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 权九勋, CFA +852-2978-0048 | goohoon.kwon@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 宋欣佳 +852-2978-0106 | chelsea.song@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 n 自2018-19年中美贸易战以来，中国占美国进口的份额有所下降。尽管如此，美国 对华贸易逆差仍超过美国对亚太地区（乃至全世界）其他经济体的贸易逆差规 模，我们预计中国将成为美国加征关税的主要目标对象。 n 鉴于现在距离美国当选总统特朗普的就职典礼只有一个多月时间，我们评估了美 国加征关税给中国以外亚太经济体带来的风险及其对亚太地区经济活动的潜在影 响。 n 面对美国关税施压，亚洲经济体可能采取的应对措施包括：1) 采取报复措施（对 于中国这样的大型经济体来说较为可行）；2) 增加购买美国商品，以缓解贸易不 平衡（将能源之类的一些大宗商品采购转向美国可能相对容易）；3) 采取措施放 宽对美国产品的市场准入限制（例如降低进口关税）；4) 调整汇率管理方 ...

1. 对于整个亚洲来说，2024年是具有里程碑意义的一年。日本央行结束了长达八年的 负利率政策，执政的自民党15年来首次在众议院选举中失去多数席位。短暂宣布戒严 的韩国总统目前正面临弹劾，加剧了国内政治僵局。中国截至目前最为严峻的房地产 市场低迷仍在持续，政策制定者时隔14年再提"适度宽松"。印度总理莫迪领导的印 度人民党/全国民主联盟在2024年初的选举中失利，印度储备银行也在进行高层改组。 就东盟国家而言，印尼和越南迎来了新的总统和国家主席，新加坡和泰国则迎来了新 总理。纵观整个区域，通胀已经消退，部分经济体的增长担忧升温，因此除日本央行 之外的许多央行都放松了货币政策。 图表 1: 美国最大的双边贸易逆差源自对华贸易，但与其他亚洲经济体的逆差也在增长 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。 资料来源：Haver Analytics, 高盛全球投资研究部 资料来源：Haver Analytics, 彭博, 高盛全球投资研究部 3. 对于美国的潜在加征关税，中国似乎仍将首当其冲。我们 ...

全球经济分析 n 我们估算，在此前贸易战期间，美国对中国进口商品在产品层面的关税税率每提 高1个百分点已推动进口下降1-2%，这与学术研究显示关税的短期贸易弹性平均为 1.3%一致。在我们对关税的基线预测下，美国进口需求下降可能导致约1,000亿美 元商品重定向至其他经济体。 n 贸易战对通胀的影响将取决于诸多因素，包括其他国家是否采取报复措施、经济 增长放缓的程度以及汇率市场对关税作何反应。我们的估算显示，贸易重定向可 能会对美国以外发达市场的价格构成进一步下行压力，然而，这与我们总体鸽派 的汇率展望一致。 全球经济分析 We expect that the second Trump administration will deliver tariffs that raise the effective tariff rate on US imports from China by 20pp (driven by increases up to 60pp on the list 1-2 items from the 2018-2019 trade war). We also expect an increa ...